Global Telecoms

Global Telecoms
Key Trends for 2020 - 5G, Mobile

Satellite and Fixed Broadband
16th Edition
Researcher Kylie Wansink
Published: 28 January 2020
Copyright 2020
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Global Telecoms - Key Trends for 2020 - 5G, Mobile Satellite and Fixed Broadband
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Forecasts
This report includes forecasts for market growth. Contributing factors and market dynamics
impacting growth within this period are described in the text accompanying the forecast tables
and charts. Sources used as inputs for deriving both estimates (denoted as (e)) and forecasts
(denoted as (f)) include telecommunication sector statistics from a range of national and
international sources. Unless otherwise stated, statistics for GDP, revenue, etc are shown in US$,
in order to maintain consistency within and between markets.
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Telecoms infrastructure is important for future technology Initiatives
There have been many exciting initiatives in recent years relating to IoT, Artificial Intelligence
and the overall Smart City movement. It is thought that we will see even faster advancement of
these sectors with the emergence of 5G, supported by fixed high-speed broadband and mobile
satellite infrastructure.
5G will offer superior speeds, latency, connections, remote coverage and efficient energy
consumption. The development of 5G is close to reaching a tipping point; with many
commercial deployments, supported by 5G devices planned for 2020. In addition, we will begin
to see the ITU release its much anticipated global standards for the industry.
Adjacent infrastructure and services provided by fixed broadband and mobile satellite will also
be a key area of focus for the telecoms industry in 2020. This infrastructure is required to supply
backhaul capabilities and fulfill the escalating data demands transpiring from both the
developed and developing markets.
The satellite sector now offers higher satellite capacity, lower pricing and general improvements
to the technology and this has led to an increased interest in this market - particularly in
emerging markets where it can be used to widen the availability of mobile telecoms to rural and
remote areas.
We note that important satellite launches, and new service offerings are occurring around the
world in 2020, particularly in some of the emerging markets of the South Pacific, South-East
Asia and Africa.
Overall trends relating to Cloud Computing, IoT/M2M, Artificial Intelligence, 5G, fixed broadband,
submarine cables and mobile satellite will be key areas of interest for the telecoms sector in
2020.

Executive Summary
This BuddeComm annual publication explores these topics from the perspective of the
telecoms industry, with a focus on 5G, fixed broadband and mobile satellite. It provides insights,
analysis, statistics and examples.
Key developments
 In 2020 the industry focus is well and truly back on telecommunications infrastructure,
led by 5G, mobile satellite and fibre-based broadband developments.
 Trends relating to smart cities, IoT/M2M and Artificial Intelligence will also be a key area
of focus.
 There are now well over 5 billion unique mobile subscriptions globally.
 With more mature markets becoming increasingly dependent on replacement purchases

rather than on first-time buyers, the shipments of smart phone have dropped for the past
few years.
 Globally, the penetration rates of mobile broadband paints an interesting picture with a
large contrast between penetration in the developed and developing markets.
 There are around 1.1 billion fixed broadband subscribers worldwide, indicating
opportunities for growth.
Kylie Wansink
December 2019

Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Key global telecoms trends 2020 1
■ Smart communities are the ultimate goal 1
Growth opportunities for the telecoms industry 3
■ Infrastructure 3
■ Cloud computing 3
■ Data centres 4
Secondary data centres 4
Fibre networks required for data centres 5
EDGE computing 5
Software-Defined Networking (SDN) 6
Data centres and SME 8
Exiting the market 8
Artificial Intelligence 9
Global telecom statistics 12
■ Leading telecom operators 14
■ Global mobile subscriptions 15
Smart phone shipments 17
Global mobile broadband statistics 19
■ Mobile broadband subscriptions 19
■ Regional mobile broadband penetration 20
Highlighted Trend for 2020: 5G 23
■ 5G statistics and forecasts 25
5G subscriptions forecast 26
5G CAPEX spend 27
5G devices 28

Table of Contents
■ 5G spectrum developments 29
Spectrum allocation around the world 30
■ Top countries leading 5G developments 32
■ Key 5G considerations 33
■ Key industry consortiums 34
3G PPP 34
IMT 2020 34
Highlighted trend for 2020: Mobile satellite 35
■ Satellite industry overview 35
■ Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) 38
MSS and 5G 39
MSS statistics 39
MSS for emerging markets 39
Highlighted trend for 2020: Fixed broadband 44
■ Fibre broadband will be needed for 5G 45
5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) 47
■ Global fixed broadband subscribers 47
■ Global submarine cable overview 48
Focus is on developing economies 48
Conclusion – 2020 is the year of 5G 53

Table of Contents
List of Tables
Table 1 – Global telecommunications industry - statistics at a glance - 2020 .......................................................................12
Table 2 - Global - Top 10 public telecoms operators by revenue – 2018 ................................................................................14
Table 3 – Global – unique mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2020 .................................................................................................16
Table 4 – Regional - mobile subscriptions – 2014 – 2019.......................................................................................................17
Table 5 – Global – smart phone shipments – 2016 – 2020 ....................................................................................................18
Table 6 – Global – active multiple mobile broadband subscriptions – 2014 – 2020 ............................................................19
Table 7 – Global active mobile broadband penetration – developed versus developing markets - 2014 – 2019 ...............20
Table 8 – Regional – mobile broadband penetration – 2014 – 2019......................................................................................22
Table 9 - Regional – active mobile broadband subscriptions – 2014 - 2019 ..........................................................................22
Table 10 – Global – market share of mobile technologies – 2018 .........................................................................................26
Table 11 – Global – 5G subscription forecast – 2020 – 2023.................................................................................................27
Table 12 – Potential frequency bands for 5G deployment .......................................................................................................29
Table 13 – Top 13 - Leading countries demonstrating 5G progress - 2019............................................................................32
Table 14 – Global – satellite industry revenue – 2008 – 2018 ................................................................................................36
Table 15 – Global - satellite services revenue – 2008 – 2018 .................................................................................................37
Table 16 – Global - satellite services revenue by sub sector – 2017; 2018 ............................................................................38
Table 17 – Global - fixed broadband subscribers – 2010 – 2020............................................................................................48

Table of Contents
List of Charts
Chart 1 - Mobile subscriber and mobile broadband penetration rates - countries to benefit from the Kacific-1 satellite ...41
List of Exhibits
Exhibit 1 – BuddeComm’s highlighted infrastructure trends for the global telecoms sector in 2020.....................................3
Exhibit 2 – Google Tensorflow .....................................................................................................................................................9
Exhibit 3 – Angelina and digital gaming ....................................................................................................................................11
Exhibit 4 – Key global developments towards 5G standardisation .........................................................................................23
Exhibit 5 – Examples of 5G device manufacturers ...................................................................................................................28
Exhibit 6 - Key considerations for government and regulators in relation to 5G.....................................................................33
Exhibit 7 – Fixed broadband networks are important for society ............................................................................................45

Table of Contents
We also have other specific Global market reports:
 Global Fixed Broadband - Analyses, Statistics and Regional Overviews
 Global Mobile - Regional Leaders - Countries and Operators
 Global Mobile Infrastructure - 5G Activity Escalates Around the World
 Global Smart Cities - Planning for a Sustainable Future - Analysis and Trends

Key global telecoms trends 2020

■ SMART COMMUNITIES ARE THE ULTIMATE GOAL
Smart communities and smart cities which are based on intelligent and efficient
infrastructure and services is the ultimate goal - and many of the current trends
occurring in the telecommunications sector are geared towards achieving this.
In order to meet this holistic goal of creating smart cities - which are better
designed to meet the needs of the future; we need to ensure the appropriate
telecoms infrastructure is in place that provides sufficient abilities to cope with
enormous data demands and provide the essential backbone required for such
immense and important developments.
The core infrastructure required to achieve these goals includes high-speed

broadband, based on fibre; LTE-A or 5G technology and Mobile Satellite Services
(MSS).
Looking towards 2020, we can see there are a number of countries showing
leadership in smart city development and these cities also have extensive high-
speed fixed and mobile broadband networks in place.
Singapore is particular is earmarked as a Smart City leader, along with the United
Kingdom (London); Hong Kong; USA (New York, Boston, Chicago); Amsterdam;
Australia (Adelaide), Barcelona (Spain) and so on. Investments in
telecommunications infrastructure along with Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and
Internet of Things (IoT) initiatives are paramount for these cities and countries to
quickly progress towards our smart nations of the future.
There are enormous developments occurring for the IoT movement with spending
in this area alone expected to grow substantially over the next 4-5 years. Already
Please note: All $ are US$ unless stated otherwise
© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020 Page 1

billions of devices around the world are connected and the emerging Artificial
Intelligence will benefit from a highly connected environment.

Growth opportunities for the telecoms industry
Growth opportunities for the

telecoms industry
Telecoms operators all around the world are under mounting pressure to increase
revenues and grow subscriptions. With many countries around the world already
heavily saturated; many operators have turned to growth opportunities offered by
mobile data/mobile broadband, M2M and fixed broadband. Other strategies for
growth have included expanding into regional markets, establishing operations in
developing markets and moving into vertical mobile content and application
areas.
■ INFRASTRUCTURE
Fundamentally, in order to ensure growth opportunities in the longer-term future

– the operators must embrace and invest in the high-speed technology and
infrastructure required for the future. This includes developments relating to 5G,
fixed broadband and mobile satellite.
Exhibit 1 – BuddeComm’s highlighted infrastructure trends for the global telecoms sector
in 2020
 5G technology deployment will escalate with the ITU global Standards recommendations emerging
in 2020.
 Fibre broadband deployments are increasing due to 5G backhaul requirements.
 Satellite launches are occurring in the emerging markets and will improve mobile services.
Source: BuddeComm
■ CLOUD COMPUTING
Telecoms operators are often both providers of cloud computing services and
users of cloud computing technologies, which places them in an interesting
position with the onset of 5G. Looking ahead, the operators will need to consider

the potential impact of 5G on the current cloud services environment and possibly
adapt to accommodate the changes.
While the true impact of 5G on cloud computing will not be fully realised until 5G
services are wide-spread; major global cloud service providers continue to have
huge growth expectations for cloud computing overall. Key trends for cloud
computing include:
 Safety and security concerns are leading towards companies taking a "multi-cloud"
approach and using two or more cloud solutions in order to minimise risk if one of
the services becomes compromised in any way;
 China offers a significant opportunity for future cloud growth with the market
expanding by around 30% a year;
 Mobile cloud computing requires the development of more sophisticated

applications;
 Cloud technology combined with the emerging block chain solutions may be a
future direction.
■ DATA CENTRES
Most telcos, ISPs and digital service and media providers now, in one way
or another, operate data centres, either as a conversion of their already
existing IT operations or as an extension of them. For their national and
international long-haul and most of their primary data functions, these
telcos and ISPs are using the big data centres around the country – and
indeed around the globe.
But increasingly they need their own data centre(s) for internal services,
as well as, in many cases, for their local customers – all, of course, fully
integrated with their facilities in the larger data centres.

Secondary data centres
With the enormous explosion in cloud computing and related OTT

services; secondary data centres are becoming a parallel trend to what is
happening with the large data centres. While the larger data centres are
capturing the media attention, the secondary data centres are a group of
quiet achievers. BuddeComm believes that globally there is room for
hundreds of thousands of secondary data centres. The majority of these
secondary data centres will be in regional centres as even relatively small
centres will require at least one local data centre hub. This in itself offers
opportunities for regional towns and cities to consider stimulating the
local ICT industry to establish such an ICT hub, as it will be of importance
to the economic development of the town and its region. It facilitates not
only first-class infrastructure needed by the organisations in the region
but also brings ICT costs down for the users of these facilities, which is
crucial in an increasingly global digital economy.
Fibre networks required for data centres
Providing the underlying infrastructure for data centre operations is one

area the telcos can play an important role. Critical to data centre facilities
is fibre optic access. Those organisations that will require data centre
services also need to have a fibre connection between their premises and
the data centre. National Broadband Networks developments will assist
in this case for those who are not yet linked to the fibre city loops that
exist in most CBDs and also increasingly in the larger regional towns. Data
centres will need to have access to multiple fibre connections in order to
be able to offer latency and close to the 100% reliability that is needed in
an economy where data connections are critical to the operation of most
organisations.
EDGE computing
Data Centre operators and enterprises have shown an intense interest in

Edge computing as it offers the ability to increase speeds and efficiency

for the end user. With the rise of sensors and M2M communication; there
is a growing requirement for faster data management and data analysis.
Edge computing enables this to occur using the edge of the network rather
than accessing the central core network. It is considered to be a
decentralized approach. For the telcos; there is a growing interest in
placing Edge Computing abilities at telephone exchanges and cell tower
locations – as this may be closer to the end users. This trend will
potentially open up significant opportunities for the telecom operators to
be involved in this development.
Edge computing can be used for applications such as data collection,

signature analysis and data caching and is useful for real-time analysis.
Issues surrounding data security will need to be resolved to progress this
market further, along with the high deployment costs. It is expected that
the amount of IT budget directed by enterprises towards Edge Computing
will rise significantly in the next few years.
Currently North America is leading the way with Edge Computing, driven
by the high level of enterprises which have adopted cloud computing and
also require fast data processing speeds. However, we will begin to see
the rise of other regions in this regard over the next five years.
There are a number of key vendors operating in this space, with examples
including Juniper Networks, Dell, Cisco and HPE from the USA, Huawei
from China; Nokia Networks and SixSq Sàrl from the Nordic region and
Saguna Networks from Israel.
Software-Defined Networking (SDN)
The rapid adoption of server virtualisation and hybrid cloud infrastructure

has resulted in a completely new operational model for deploying and
managing application workloads in software defined data centres. The
network has historically been a barrier to achieving the full benefits of

virtualisation and workload mobility because of complex physical network

topology, manual configuration of network equipment, and a reliance on
vendor-specific expertise.
SDD technologies; also referred to as Software Defined Networking (SDN),

can help to overcome these challenges by enabling rapid, on-demand
deployment of network services in virtualised data centres. SDD redirects
and optimises traffic between virtual machines (VMs) without the need
for complex router configurations and networking expertise. This allows
virtualisation administrators to optimise the performance of individual
workloads between data centres, remote offices and the cloud quickly and
with increased simplicity.
As the network transforms from a hardware model to a software delivery

model, it becomes essential for non-networking professionals to enable
and manage network services at-will, SDD assists customers to automate
and optimise the deployment of virtualised network services across their
data centres.
Key to network virtualisation is the decoupling of networking functions

from the underlying physical infrastructure and automating network
services to dramatically simplify IT service delivery. SDD will enable
customers to move data at accelerated rates between VMs in separate
virtualised data centres.
Virtualised wide area network (WAN) optimisation software has already

proven to be a critical requirement for moving more data over longer
distances, and in less time. The software-based approach is a fast and
cost-effective way to overcome bandwidth, distance and quality
challenges that hinder data mobility performance for disaster recovery
and access to localised resources across multiple data centres, including
cloud and managed service provider (MSP) environments.

IDC forecast the Data Centre SDN market would be worth $12.5 billion
globally by 2020.
Data centres and SME
For those telecoms operators involved in data centre offerings, the Small-
Medium Enterprise sector (SME) is going to offer more opportunities
going forward. The enterprise and government sector has already
embraced this trend, with around 90% of organisations in developed
economies now using cloud computing/data centre services. The next
sector that will see the transformation is the SME sector, of which – even
in the developed economies – still less than 20% at present use cloud
services.
This is where the next level of cloud computing and data centre activity
will explode; this not only means data centres developments in the
metropolitan cities but increasingly so in regional areas.
Exiting the market
Many telecoms operators initially embraced the operating of data centres

as an opportunity to expand their own business operations in the face of
dwindling revenues and market saturation. However, it has also become
more and more apparent in recent years that operating data centres is a
complex task and requires time, specialist skills and extensive
investment.
In addition, the market has become more competitive and the large
players like Equinix and Digital Reality Trust; along with Amazon Web
Services (AWS) and Microsoft, for example, are making it increasingly
difficult for telcos to operate in this space and are quickly capturing more
and more market share.

As a result, there have been some high profile operators sell off their data
centre operations recently including Verizon which sold its operations to
Equinix in 2016; Century Link which sold off over 50 of its data centres and
AT&T which sold off some of its operations to IBM in 2015 and followed
this with a further sell-off to Brookfield in 2018.
Artificial Intelligence
The telecoms operators have a number of opportunities emerging from AI

developments and these will continue to grow as the technology evolves.
However, it is important to consider there may be a talent and skills shortage
looming. Many digital workers with skills useful for AI will be required in the years
ahead - along with the broader supporting roles relating to legal, customer service,
sales and operations.
For the telecoms operators; AI will provide intelligent solutions to manage

network infrastructure in a more efficient way and tailored manner – and in real-
time when required.
Operators and device manufacturers are also already applying AI to smart phone
devices. Huawei introduced the first mobile AI chip in 2017 and this was followed
soon after by Apple which launched its own smart phone with an AI chip (iPhone
X). These have increased the processing speeds of these devices.
Google is also developing its MobileNets initiative which is exploring devices

incorporating facial recognition using neural network technology (using
TensorFlow).
Exhibit 2 – Google Tensorflow

In November 2015 Google launched its second generation artificial intelligence system called
Tensorflow. In addition, Google announced that parts of its machine learning system would
be open sourced. Tensorflow is a machine learning system which can be used on smart
phones or across datacentres to improve performance and problem solving. It is hoped that
by inviting developers, academics and the like to participate in TensorFlow and have access
to working code, we will see faster developments for machine learning as a whole.

TensorFlow is gaining traction in the market and leads programmers on a natural course to
subsequently utilise Google’s cloud platform once a program is built. Google has traditionally
struggled behind Amazon and Microsoft when it comes to the cloud infrastructure sector, but
it thought that TensorFlow may ultimately assist Google in growing its cloud market share.
Other examples of opportunities BuddeComm has identified for the telecoms

operators includes both applications that assist with internal operations as well
as external opportunities to develop new service offerings for customers. The
telecoms operators need to consider how AI can influence operations from a
telecoms infrastructure perspective - as high-speed infrastructure and robust
capacity will be a fundamental basic required for AI progress.
Examples of applications for AI for the telecoms operators (and other industries)
may include:
 Predictive maintenance – telecoms operators can use AI to detect problems with

signals and identify networks or cell towers which may require maintenance prior
to issues surfacing.
 Drone information analysis – operators are exploring the use of AI to analyse video
data transferred from drones. This may assist with identifying cell tower
maintenance or damage or topographic issues when deploying new networks.
 Big Data and AI platforms – some operators are exploring the potential of offering
AI solutions packages to customers which would offer them the ability to analyse
customer data.
 Virtual Assistance and Speech Recognition – AI is being applied to Chatbots and

Speech Recognition applications which can provide virtual customer service
assistance. This would reduce large customer service costs for telecoms
operators and other enterprises alike.
 Data centre energy management – AI can be used to analyse peak energy usage
and make predictive decisions in order to provide smart energy solutions for data
centres.

 AI can be applied to network security monitoring, data security and asset

protection. Applications which combine of Machine Learning and AI could be used
to analyse previous cyber-attacks and predict or identify future similar attacks.
 Application Programming Interfaces – Chinese Internet players (Alibaba, TenCent,

Baidu) are exploring mobile cloud APIs using natural language processing and
speech recognition technologies.
 AI and Gaming – Angelina was one of the first to explore the use of AI in digital
gaming.
Exhibit 3 – Angelina and digital gaming

Angelina is an artificial intelligence system written by Michael Cook as part of a PhD at
Imperial College London. Designed to build computer games from the ground-up, Angelina
differs from similar automatic game developing tools because it builds and tests the entire
game itself, not just some components [http://www.gamesbyangelina.org].
Angelina uses a system called Mechanic Miner, developed by Cook, which he describes as:
“Mechanic Miner uses something called reflection to examine the code of a game.” Mechanic
Miner was first used to create a game called A Puzzling Present.
Angelina is capable of designing dimensional games with original gameplay mechanics and
level layouts, coupled with graphics and sound that it automatically selects to fit a theme.
Angelina represents an important milestone in the development of software that can design
creatively. While it is to date solely a game-developing tool, it is considered an exciting step
forward in terms of artificial intelligence and automatic reasoning processes.

Global telecom statistics

The overall global telecoms statistics are impressive. As we entered 2020 - there
were well over 8 billion mobile subscriptions globally and over 6 billion mobile
broadband subscribers (including multiples) and 1.1 billion fixed broadband
subscribers.
Global mobile operator revenue is expected to have an annual average growth rate
of 1.4% between 2018 and 2025. This will be driven by opportunities relating to
5G, Smart Cities, IoT and M2M.
Below BuddeComm has provided a snapshot of the key global telecom statistics.
Table 1 – Global telecommunications industry - statistics at a glance - 2020
GLOBAL TELECOM STATISTICS - 2020
Population (2020) 7.8 billion
Global telecom services annual spending (2020) US $1.6 trillion
GLOBAL MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS
Total mobile subscriptions, including multiples (2019) 8 billion
Total mobile subscription penetration, including 108.0%

multiples (2019)
GLOBAL MOBILE BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS
Total active mobile broadband subscriptions, including 6.38 billion

multiples (2019)
Total active mobile broadband penetration (2019) Developed markets: 121.7%

Developing: 75.2%
World: 83.0%
GLOBAL MOBILE REVENUE
Global mobile revenue (2020) US$1.07 trillion
Global mobile monthly ARPU (2019) US$8.45

Global Telecoms CAPEX (2020) US $345 billion
GLOBAL FIXED BROADBAND
Global fixed broadband subscribers (2020) 1.12 billion
Global fixed broadband penetration (e) (2020) 16%
Source: BuddeComm based on various industry data, 2020.

■ LEADING TELECOM OPERATORS
There are hundreds of telecoms operators around the world vying for position and
market share. According to the Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSMA),
there are around 750 operators worldwide and a further 400 or so in the broader
related industries of handset and device manufacturers, software and equipment.
There are a number of operators globally which dominate either the home or
regional markets. In 2018 the top ten global public operators by revenue included
Verizon (USA), China Mobile (China), NTT (Japan), Deutsche Telecom (Germany),
Telefonica (Spain), China Telecom, (China), Vodafone (UK), America Movil
(Mexico) and Orange (France).
Table 2 - Global - Top 10 public telecoms operators by revenue – 2018
Operator 2018
Revenue
(US$ billion)
1. AT&T 170.7
2. Verizon Communications 130.8
3. China Mobile 111.8
4. NTT 107.5
5. Deutsche Telecom 89.3
6. Telefonica 57.7
7. China Telecom 57.1
8. Vodafone 53.9
9. America Movil 53.1
10. Orange 48.8
Source: BuddeComm based on Forbes.

Note: Data rounded.

■ GLOBAL MOBILE SUBSCRIPTIONS
In the last 12 years the mobile industry has grown from 3.3 billion subscriptions
in 2007 to around 8 billion mobile subscriptions (including multiple subscriptions)
worldwide in 2019.
This timeframe included the release of the iPhone which was launched in the USA
in 2007 and sold out within hours. The iPhone had a dramatic impact on the
mobile industry as consumers flocked to buy smart phones and embraced the
mobile data services on offer, particularly mobile apps.
Surprisingly, of the 8 billion subscriptions globally in 2019 - only around 5.2 billion
were unique mobile subscribers. This means there are a lot of people managing
multiple devices and subscriptions around the world.
It is Asia which is expected to drive growth and account for 60% of all new mobile
subscriptions globally through to 2020. India and China will lead this growth, along
with Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. Interestingly, it is also China which is one of
the standout leaders in terms of developing 5G.
The continued mobile expansion, together with rising smartphone adoption and
the migration to 3G/4G (and increasingly 5G) mobile broadband networks, will
drive economic growth and social wellbeing in areas such as digital and financial
inclusion, healthcare, and education, according to the GSA.
Mobile penetration, however, continues to vary widely throughout the world with
the developed markets reaching saturation at around 128% penetration in 2018,
according to the ITU and the developing markets sitting at just under 102% in
2018.

Table 3 – Global – unique mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2020
Year Unique subscribers (billion) Annual growth
2010 2.8 8%
2011 3.0 7%
2012 3.2 7%
2013 3.5 9%
2014 3.6 3%
2015 3.8 6%
2016 4.3 13%
2017 4.8 13%
2018 5.1 6%
2019 (e) 5.2 2%
2020 (e) 5.3 2%
Source: BuddeComm based on various industry sources.

Note: 1Unique subscribers excludes multiple subscriptions.

As indicated below, there are around 7.8 billion mobile subscriptions worldwide in
2019 (including multiples) and Asia accounted for the majority of these, followed
by Africa.
Table 4 – Regional - mobile subscriptions – 2014 – 2019
Year North Europe Asia Latin Middle Africa

America America East Total
Subscriptions (billion)
2014 0.335 0.963 3.687 0.676 0.276 0.888 6.825
2015 0.382 0.969 3.805 0.655 0.288 0.950 7.049
2016 0.395 0.975 4.041 0.692 0.300 0.958 7.361
2017 0.402 0.980 4.144 0.688 0.302 0.965 7.481
2018 0.410 0.972 4.323 0.683 0.304 1.005 7.697
2019 (e) 0.416 0.977 4.457 0.687 0.318 1.015 7.870
Source: BuddeComm, 2019

Note 1: Statistics for Turkey are included in the Middle East. 2 North America includes USA and Canada but excludes Mexico
which is included in Latin America. Table excludes Pacific region (Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific). 3 Includes
multiple mobile subscriptions.4 Table reviewed January 2020.
Smart phone shipments
The sales of smart phones had many years of significant growth; however, in
recent years the global smartphone market slowed from its 2012 boom, when
shipments shot up by 86%. This is partly due to the more mature markets
becoming increasingly dependent on replacement purchases rather than on first-
time buyers as well as a slower turnover of phones as consumers retain them for
longer.
In Q3 2019 there were some signs of a market recovery however, with sales
reaching around the same level as Q3 2018 – perhaps demonstrating some
stabilisation in the sector.
The smart phone device sector industry is shifting its attention to the emerging
countries in Asia, Latin America, and Africa for growth, where much of the

population either does not own a mobile phone or has yet to move from feature
phone to smartphone.
Sales are also now being driven by low-cost Chinese brands which have expanded
beyond the Chinese market and by other cheap unbranded handsets sold in the
developing markets, particularly India. China is the world’s largest smartphone
market.
The availability of cheaper devices will lead to increasing smartphone penetration

(anywhere from 40% to 80% depending on the region). A study by Ericsson found
that in early 2019, smartphone subscriptions accounted for around 60% of all
mobile subscriptions globally.
On a global level, a forecast by Gartner sees around 9% of smart phones being

able to support 5G by 2021.
Table 5 – Global – smart phone shipments – 2016 – 2020
Year Units sold (billion) Annual change
2016 1.52 -4%
2017 1.46 -2%
2018 1.40 -4%
2019 1.46 4%
2020 (e) 1.49 2%
Source: BuddeComm based on various industry sources, 2020

Global mobile broadband statistics
Global mobile broadband

statistics
■ MOBILE BROADBAND SUBSCRIPTIONS
Globally, the penetration rates of mobile broadband paints an interesting picture.

In the developed markets the ITU established that in 2018 the overall mobile
broadband penetration had reached 111%, a rise of 11% just one year earlier. In
the developing markets, the mobile broadband penetration rate had reached 61%
in 2018, a rise from nearly 50% a year earlier.
Both markets have grown at around the same rate, despite the developed markets
reaching traditional saturation point. This could be attributed to the continuing
growth in consumer adoption of multiple subscriptions and devices, driven by a
need for mobile broadband and the growing M2M sector.
Table 6 – Global – active multiple mobile broadband subscriptions – 2014 – 2020
Year Subscribers Annual Growth

(billion) %
2014 2.66 -
2015 3.32 24.8
2016 3.89 17.2
2017 4.67 20.0
2018 5.33 14.1
2019 6.38 19.7
2020 (e) 7.72 21.0
Source: BuddeComm based on ITU

Notes: 1Data rounded up. Includes multiple subscriptions. 2Active mobile-broadband subscriptions refers to the sum of
standard mobile-broadband subscriptions and dedicated mobile-broadband subscriptions. It covers actual subscribers,
not potential subscribers even though the latter may have broadband enabled-handsets.3Table updated January 2020.

Table 7 – Global active mobile broadband penetration – developed versus developing

markets - 2014 – 2019
Region 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile broadband penetration per 100 inhabitants %
Developed 81.1 91.0 97.9 103.6

111.2 121.7
nations
Developing 27.5 35.7 42.9 53.6

61.0 75.2
nations

Note: Table updated January 2020. Based active mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants.
■ REGIONAL MOBILE BROADBAND PENETRATION
The Americas lead in terms of mobile broadband penetration, where growth in the
US mobile subscriber base has remained strong, with a penetration rate of about
127%. Declining revenue from voice services is compensated for by high growth
in mobile data use, itself supported by upgraded networks based on LTE
technologies. Smartphone penetration is also high, which had encouraged mobile
data use among subscribers. For further information, see separate report: USA -
Mobile Infrastructure, Broadband, Operators - Statistics and Analyses.
Europe also has a high mobile broadband penetration, partly due to the strong
market in the United Kingdom, which has one of the largest mobile markets in
Europe, both in terms of revenue and in the number of subscribers. The market
has also been characterised by developments in advanced data services delivered
over upgraded networks, the bundling of mobile as a quad-play service, and
regulatory controls on charges and fees. Mobile penetration is above the EU
average, and in common with developments in many other European markets,
subscriber growth has dipped in recent quarters as consumers respond to
economic pressures and more generous pricing offers among operators which
has negated some of the justifications for multiple SIM card ownership. For
further information, see separate report: United Kingdom - Mobile Infrastructure,
Broadband, Operators - Statistics and Analyses.

The mobile broadband subscriber base across all of Asia continues to grow
strongly. The region’s mobile markets have continued to offer huge potential for
mobile data services, driven by the high volume of mobile services. The rapid take-
up has been underpinned by increasingly cheaper smartphone prices and lower
airtime tariffs.
The total number of mobile broadband subscribers is anticipated to reach nearly

3 billion in 2019. The very high double-digit growth rates of the 2012 to 2017
period are now over as the mobile broadband market matures further. With 3G,
3G+ and 4G platforms extensively covering the region, mobile broadband services
have already become well established.
A major shift from mobile voice to mobile data continues across the developing
markets in Asia. The more highly developed markets in the region have already
seen their mobile networks strongly driven by mobile data services. Developing
nations are now following in their path and mobile broadband penetration has
grown strongly in most of them over the last five years.
Asia’s total mobile broadband subscriber base as a proportion of the total mobile
subscriber base continues to grow. This percentage will continue to increase over
the next five years to 2023. For related information, see separate report: Asia -
Mobile Infrastructure and Mobile Broadband.

Table 8 – Regional – mobile broadband penetration – 2014 – 2019
Region 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mobile broadband penetration per 100 inhabitants %
Africa 13.1 19.0 21.8 24.8 29.7 34.0
Arab States 34.3 43.6 47.0 54.9 62.7 67.3
Asia & Pacific 29.3 37.8 46.5 60.3 68.3 89.0
CIS 53.7 60.5 65.3 72.0 79.2 85.4
Europe 64.0 71.6 79.8 85.9 93.6 97.4
The Americas 67.9 78.4 85.1 89.5 97.1 104.4

Note: Table updated January 2020. Based on active mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants.
Table 9 - Regional – active mobile broadband subscriptions – 2014 - 2019
Region 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Active mobile broadband subscriptions

(million)
Africa 0.121 0.181 0.212 0.248 0.312 0.354
Arab States 0.134 0.174 0.191 0.228 0.253 0.288
Asia & Pacific 1.192 1.554 1.927 2.522 3.003 3.802
CIS 0.128 0.144 0.157 0.173 0.187 0.206
Europe 0.428 0.480 0.536 0.579 0.623 0.671
The Americas 0.661 0.771 0.844 0.896 0.950 1.054

Notes:
1Activemobile-broadband subscriptions refers to the sum of standard mobile-broadband subscriptions and dedicated
mobile-broadband subscriptions. It covers actual subscribers, not potential subscribers even though the latter may have
broadband enabled-handsets. 3Table updated January 2020.

Highlighted Trend for 2020: 5G

The attention surrounding global 5G developments will intensify due to the
enormous investment taking place for both operators, solution providers and
governments around the world. In addition, the number of operators reporting
successful trials has increased; the first 5G capable devices are in operation and
the global standards are becoming clearer.
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and 3G PPP are working

together to develop the global 5G standards. In October 2019 the ITU convened
the World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-19) with the recommendations
from the meeting to be released in February 2020.
Exhibit 4 – Key global developments towards 5G standardisation
The ITU and 3GPPP

The 3GPPP and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) are co-operating and co-ordinating their
efforts to form the final 5G global standard (IMT 2020) which is expected to arrive around 2020. The ITU is
developing what is known as the IMT 2020 standard in two phases:
Phase 1: sub-40-GHz - which concluded June 2018 and coincided with the 3GPP LTE release 15.
Phase 2: sub-100-GHz – which will conclude December 2019 and coincide with 3GPP LTE release 16.
Key developments: Description

5G global standards
At the end of 2017 the work towards global specifications for 5G took a
significant step forward with the 3GPPP formerly authorising the first
December 2017 – June 2018
5G New Radio (NR) standard which will be used for large-scale trials and
– Phase 1 completion
commercial deployments in 2019. This is the first phase of the 5G
evolution.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) convened the World

Radiocommunication Conference in 2019 (WRC-19) which will decide
global 5G spectrum allocation. At the previous WRC-15 conference held
October 2019 – WRC-19 in 2015, agreement was reached to consider the bands 3.5GHz, 600
MHz and 1400 MHz for 5G. At the 2019 conference discussions around
the 24 GHz band allocation are expected with recommendations to be
released in February 2020.
December 2019 Phase two of the ITU standardisation process known as sub-100-GHz –
– Phase 2 completion will conclude December 2019 and coincide with 3GPP LTE release 16.

The pressure on current mobile and fixed infrastructure continues to increase as

the demand for data-intensive services continues. To prepare for the future, the
industry has collectively turned to the potential opportunities presented by 5G.
It is expected that we will begin to see huge leaps forward towards many of the
underlying trends which have been envisioned for some time; once 5G has
become well-established. 5G will not just mean faster mobile networks with more
capacity and latency - the benefits of 5G will far exceed this.
It is expected that 5G will facilitate developments in the Enhanced Mobile

Broadband (eMBB) sector including those relating to the Internet of Things (IoT),
Big Data analytics and M2M as well as virtual reality, artificial intelligence, mission
critical communications – just to name a few.
Holistically these developments all relate to the Smart Communities of the future
and 5G will assist to accelerate developments in this area.
In 2019 many countries are conducting their own trials and testing of 5G while
waiting for the full global standards to be developed. In particular, when the
3GPPP formerly authorised the first 5G New Radio (NR) standard at the end of
2017; development of 5G really began to escalate.
In 2019 we have seen 5G NR used for many large-scale trials and commercial
deployments around the world. Qatar, for example, is demonstrating considerable
5G progress and both Ooredoo and Vodafone Qatar have deployed 5G networks
based on New Radio (NR) in the 3.5GHz frequency.
By May 2019, there were 231 operators across 91 countries investing in 5G,
according to Global Mobile Suppliers Association (GSA). This included activities
relating to trialling, testing and deployment.

Despite the enormous developments taking place around 5G; it is important to

recognise there is still a lot of growth ahead for LTE 4G infrastructure. In fact, it is
expected by the GSA that 4G LTE will continue to be the leading mobile technology
for the next few years and will continue to grow at a CAGR of 4% through to 2022.
In 2019 4G LTE accounts for around 47% market share of all global mobile
technologies worldwide. The majority of these subscriptions reside in the Asia-
Pacific region which has also led in terms of LTE growth.
4G LTE will provide the backbone infrastructure for 5G deployment, so it plays an

important role in the progress of 5G. It provides a good indicator of which
countries will leap ahead in 5G deployment because substantial LTE
infrastructure is required to make the evolution possible.
4G LTE currently carries most of the mobile data traffic globally – driven in part
by the increasing use of mobile video. Pressure will be further placed on 4G LTE
infrastructure as 3G slowly becomes phased out in most markets of the world.
Eventually, it will be 5G which will be required to meet the growing demands of
the mobile sector – especially with the escalating developments relating to IoT
and M2M.
Network capacity, very low latency and very flexible spectrum possibilities are
among the key technological elements of 5G. While is it yet unknown exactly how
much faster 5G will be – it is expected that 5G will be drastically faster and offer
download speeds of 1-10 Gb/ps. To put this in perspective; 4G offers download
speeds of only 100 Mb/s and 4G+ only 300 Mb/s.
■ 5G STATISTICS AND FORECASTS
Before contemplating statistical forecasts for 5G – it is important to consider the

current status of mobile technologies and their relevant market shares on a global
level. Currently 4G LTE comprises the largest market share of mobile technologies
globally – followed by 3G HSPA.

4G LTE is expected to continue to be the leading technology until around 2025

when 5G will begin to make its mark.
Table 10 – Global – market share of mobile technologies – 2018
Technology Market share
GSM 25%
HSPA 26%
CDMA 1.5%
LTE 44.0%
Other 0.4%
Source: BuddeComm based on Ovum, 2018

Notes: Table reviewed January 2020.
5G subscriptions forecast
There are many forecasts emerging for the global 5G sector, and it is expected
that around 1 billion 5G subscriptions will be reached between 2023-2025.
Ovum and Ericsson are two analysts forecasting the 1 billion mark will be reached
sooner rather than later, in 2023. The GSA on the other hand, predicts that 1.1
billion 5G subscriptions globally will not be achieved until 2025.
A study by Deloitte observed that the 5G roll-out will be faster in some markets
than others. In 2025, almost half of all subscribers in the USA and Japan will be
using 5G and just over 30 percent in Europe. In China around a quarter of
subscriptions will be connected to 5G and in the emerging markets, including
Latin America, the Middle East and Africa, the percentage of users will be less
than 10%.

Table 11 – Global – 5G subscription forecast – 2020 – 2023
Year 5G subscriptions
(billion)
2020 (f) 0.037
2021 (f) 0.159
2022 (f) 0.512
2023 (f) 1.300
Source: BuddeComm based on Ovum and 5G Americas, 2019

Notes: Table reviewed December 2019.
5G CAPEX spend
There has been concern expressed by telecoms operators and governments that
the large costs involved in deploying 5G may not be commercially viable and it
would probably be in the densely populated cities where the best opportunities
will reside. Similar to deployments of other mobile technologies; there will be a
digital divide created with some markets surging ahead while others endeavour
to catch up.
A study by the ITU estimated that the cost to deploy a small-cell 5G network for a
smaller city would be around $US 6.8 billion while a large city could be as high as
US$55 billion. This is assuming the fibre backhaul required is commercially
feasible.
These high costs may instigate caution from the telecoms operators when
approaching 5G investments and in time we may see governments needing to
stimulate 5G investment in some markets.
Developing the appropriate infrastructure for the 5G evolution is undoubtably an

expensive process. When considering the costs involved in the deployment of the
backbone 4G LTE and backhaul fibre networks; purchasing the required spectrum
and licenses; partnering with solution providers; upgrading towers and software

and taking on board the device considerations; just to name a few examples - it is
easy to see how billions can soon be spent.
One study by Heavy Reading forecast that the annual 5G CAPEX spending by the
mobile operators would grow from US$8.6 billion in 2019 to over US$87.9 billion
worldwide in 2023.
5G devices
In terms of mobile phone devices, the industry is waiting on the finalisation of

standards before it begins any mass production of 5G-enabled devices. This has
not stopped experimentation however with Ericsson unveiling the first 5G
prototype phone in late August 2015. This very large device was used as a test
bed in two locations, in the US and Sweden, and demonstrated speeds of up to
2Gbs.
In 2019 the 5G device market expanded quickly with around 64 total device
announcements tracked globally by the GSA at the end of May 2019. A study by
Deloitte forecast that during 2021, device vendors will sell more than 100 million
5G handsets.
Exhibit 5 – Examples of 5G device manufacturers

Examples of device manufacturers developing 5G handsets in 2019 include:
Askey, China Mobile, D-Link, Doogee, Fibocom, HTC, Huawei, Inseego, Jaton Tec, Lenovo, LG,
Motorola, NetComm, NetGear, Nokia, Nubia, OnePlus, Oppo, Quectel, Royale, Samsung, Sierra
Wireless, SIMCom Wireless, Sony, TCL, Telit, U-nlox, Vivo, WingTech, WNC, Xiaomi, ZTE, Zyxel.
Qualcomm is also leading the developments in the devices area, due to its work in 5G
modems, which are a critical design aspect of a 5G device, along with the antenna.

■ 5G SPECTRUM DEVELOPMENTS
5G technology will place even greater demand on current spectrum resources,

given it is expected to support a larger range of applications under the emerging
IoT ecosystem - in a connected city environment from high reliability and high
bandwidth applications, to ultra-low latency and mobility.
Government and regulators need to carefully consider spectrum management.

They need to get spectrum allocation right as it will set the foundation for the
quality, speed and coverage which can be ultimately be achieved.
There is growing international focus on the 28Ghz band (mm-wave) as well as the
3.5 GHz band (3.4GHz to 3.7 GHz) band - and these are the most used band
globally for initial 5G trials and deployments.
Frequency bands being considered for 5G which will be discussed at the WRC-19
include:
Table 12 – Potential frequency bands for 5G deployment
Candidate bands for 5G deployments
3.5GHz 45.5-47 GHz
26 GHz 47-47.2GHz
31.8 –33.4 GHz 47.2-50.2 GHz
37–40.5 GHz 50.4-52.6 GHz
40.5 GHz–42.5 GHz 66-76 GHz
42.5-43.5 GHz 81-86 GHz
Candidate ultra-high frequency bands
1400 MHz band 600 MHz band
Source: BuddeComm based on ITU and industry data, 2019

Note: Table reviewed December 2019.

Spectrum allocation around the world
There were 59 countries (and territories) identified by the GSA which were
contemplating the spectrum requirements for 5G – either through introducing,
allocating, reserving, planning or consulting on the matter, by May 2019. This was
a rise on the 42 countries identified in July 2018.
Governments are keen to conduct spectrum auctions because they can

potentially secure millions of dollars in payments from the operators.
In the USA for example, the auction for spectrum in the 28GHz band held between
November 2018 and January 2019 raised $702.6 million for the Federal
Communications Commission (FCC), with 2,965 licenses issued. The clock phase
of the 24GHz auction was ended in May 2019, raising $2.024 billion and 2,094
licenses were issued. Auctions for 37GHz, 39GHz and 47GHz spectrum bands will
be held from December 2019, with 3.4GHz up for bid. For related information, see
separate report: USA - Mobile Infrastructure, Broadband, Operators - Statistics and
Analyses.
By May 2019, countries which had allocated or auctioned 5G spectrum, according

to the GSA, included the following countries:
Europe – six countries had completed auctions for 5G spectrum ( Finland, Ireland,
Latvia, Spain, Italy, United Kingdom) and a further twelve had conducted auctions
of spectrum which could possibly be used for 5G. These included: Albania,
Austria, Croatia, Czechia, Denmark, Germany, Greece, Norway, Slovakia, Spain,
Sweden and Switzerland.
Asia-Pacific – Auctions and allocations are taking place in Australia, Hong Kong,
India, New Zealand, Taiwan, Japan, China, Korea and Thailand.
North America – Both the USA and Canada have allocated technology neutral
licensing in banding ranges suitable for 5G.

Middle East – Saudi Arabia has completed an auction of suitable spectrum and
the UAE has allocated spectrum. Oman and Qatar have awarded suitable
spectrum for 5G and Israel and Bahrain are planning spectrum auctions in the
near future.
Africa - Tanzania has allocated spectrum, Ghana has conducted a spectrum

auction and South Africa is planning an auction in the near future.

■ TOP COUNTRIES LEADING 5G DEVELOPMENTS
BuddeComm has identified the following thirteen countries as demonstrating

leadership towards 5G progress in 2019. This is based on the level of 4G LTE
population coverage; evidence of significant testing and trialling along with
progress towards spectrum allocation or auctions.
Table 13 – Top 13 - Leading countries demonstrating 5G progress - 2019
Country Region 4G 5G
LTE/WiMAX trials/testing Progress towards spectrum
population conducted? allocation? Yes/No
coverage Yes/No
Yes – Australia has auctioned 5G

Australia Pacific 99.0% Yes
spectrum at 3.5 GHz.
Yes - China has reserved key bands for

China Asia 98.0% Yes
5G.
France Europe 98.0% Yes Yes – confirmed future 5G auctions.
Yes – 5G spectrum auction occurring in

Germany Europe 96.5% Yes
2019.
Hong Kong Asia 99.0% Yes Yes – 5G spectrum auction planned.
Japan Asia 99.0% Yes Yes – Japan has issued 5G spectrum.
Qatar Middle East 99.5% Yes Yes – spectrum awarded for 5G.
Yes – auctions conducted for spectrum

Saudi Arabia Middle East 90.0% Yes
suitable for both 4G and 5G.
Yes - regulator has identified suitable

Singapore Asia 100% Yes spectrum bands to support the
technology.
Yes – auction conducted in 2018 in the

South Korea Asia 99.9% Yes 3.42–3.7 GHz and 26.5–28.9 GHz
frequency band.
UAE Middle East 99.6% Yes Yes – spectrum allocated.
United Kingdom Europe 99.3% Yes Yes – 5G spectrum auctions completed.
Yes – spectrum issued on a technology

USA North America 99.8% Yes
neutral basis, suitable for 5G.
Source: BuddeComm based on ITU, GSMA and other industry sources, 2019
Notes:
1Updated June 2019. 2Country list is ranked alphabetically only. 3Countries were identified due to demonstrating
development towards 5G, including testing/trials, consideration of spectrum requirements and substantial LTE coverage.
4LTe/WiMAX coverage data is for 2017, based on ITU.

■ KEY 5G CONSIDERATIONS
5G is an evolutionary process which along with improvements to speed, capacity

and latency; will also create new opportunities in areas like IoT, M2M, Virtual
Reality and Artificial Intelligence. With mobile data traffic almost doubling every
year; networks around the world are under enormous pressure to meet demand
and there is a growing desperation to see 5G fully emerge. In 2019 we saw the
first phase of 5G deployments based on the 3GPP Release 15 standard appear.
Countries which are well-placed to take advantage of the 5G opportunity, as

outlined above, need to begin considering the important aspects of preparing for
this next mobile network evolution. In the exhibit below, BuddeComm has
identified some of these key elements:
Exhibit 6 - Key considerations for government and regulators in relation to 5G
Key considerations Description

 Begin to consider spectrum usage and allocation. 5G technology will
place even greater demand on current spectrum resources given it is
expected to support a larger range of applications under the emerging
Spectrum
IoT ecosystem in a connected city environment including high
reliability and high bandwidth applications, to ultra-low latency and
mobility.
Backhaul  Ensure 5G will be able to access Backhaul networks.
 Ensure all regulatory bodies have a clear and collaborative plan of
Regulatory bodies
action.
 Ensure other existing regulations or industry standards will not inhibit
Regulations
5G e.g. net neutrality.
 Ensure government bodies and operators are also working at a global
level. The ITU is developing global standards and spectrum allocation
Global standards
and it is recommended that operators build and develop
infrastructure in line with global standards.
 Governments may want to consider the Management Rights aspect
of 5G including:
 5G development is currently leaning towards TDD technology and
countries not using this band and FDD instead, may want to consider
Management Rights
changing to TDD to remain in-line with international development.
 Bandwidth - incorporating the 3GPPP technical specifications for 5G.
 Out of Band Emissions and setting limits.
 Interference.
Source: BuddeComm

■ KEY INDUSTRY CONSORTIUMS
The following are two of the key global organisations involved in developing 5G
with the ITU and 3G PPP working together to develop the global 5G standards.
3G PPP
The 3GPP has become the focal point for mobile systems beyond 3G. It is a
partnership between 7 telecommunications standard development organizations
(ARIB, ATIS, CCSA, ETSI, TSDSI, TTA, TTC). In terms of 5G development, the 3G
PPP is complying with the ITU IMT-2020 requirements and it is anticipated the
3GPP Release 16 will be completed by the end of 2019 and is considered to be
Phase 2 of the 3GPP 5G effort.
Phase 1 is underway now and includes 'New Radio' features and is called 3GPPP
Release 15, will form the first Phase of 5G deployments.
IMT 2020
In 2012 the ITU launched its International Mobile Telecommunication program

designed to capture the future of mobile technologies, including 5G.
ITU’s Radiocommunication department (ITU-R) is leading the program and in 2015

it announced the finalised timeline for its 5G vision which includes the formalising
of the specifications in 2020.
It also announced in June 2015 that the formal name for the next generation
mobile system (known informally as 5G) would be IMT 2020. This follows the
previously named IMT-2000 (3G) and IMT-Advanced (4G).

Highlighted trend for 2020: Mobile satellite
Highlighted trend for 2020: Mobile

satellite
■ SATELLITE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
There has been a recent revival and investment in satellite communications.

Commercial satellite communications were first introduced around 1965. The
first satellite could, however, only handle 240 voice circuits at the same time.
Towards the end of that century, satellites carried about one third of all voice
traffic between countries, and nearly all television signals.
Revolving around the earth in different orbits, satellites perform such diverse
tasks as weather monitoring, navigation, remote sensing, telecommunications
and broadcasting. In all there are over 4,500 satellites circling the earth.
The satellite industry is made up of four key industry segments: satellite services;
satellite manufacturing; launch industry and ground equipment. Satellite services
include Mobile Satellite Services (MSS), satellite broadband and Direct
Broadcasting Services.
Overall satellite revenue has been growing steadily since at least 2008.

Table 14 – Global – satellite industry revenue – 2008 – 2018
Year Revenue
($ billion)
2008 144
2009 161
2010 168
2011 177
2012 210
2013 231
2014 247
2015 255
2016 261
2017 269
2018 277
Source: BuddeComm based on SIA

Note: Data rounded. Latest publicly available data.
In 2018 satellite services were leading growth in the sector, driven by consumer
uptake of services. In 2018 satellite services generated $126.5 billion in global
revenue and this segment includes telecommunications satellite services as well
as Earth Observation and Sciences.

Table 15 – Global - satellite services revenue – 2008 – 2018
Year Revenue
($ billion)
2008 84
2009 93
2010 101
2011 107
2012 113
2013 118
2014 122
2015 127
2016 127
2017 129
2018 126

Large geographies like North America are ideal for satellite communications and
it will continue as the largest market for some time yet, with Western Europe
gaining ground over the next few years. The uptake of broadband VSAT services
by corporate and government clients will also drive growth in the number of VSAT
sites. Some the largest players in the satellite sector include: Inmarsat; Intelsat;
Eutelsat and SES.

Table 16 – Global - satellite services revenue by sub sector – 2017; 2018
Sector 2017 2018

Revenue Revenue
($ billion) ($ billion)
Television 97.1 94.2
Radio 5.4 5.8
Broadband 2.1 2.4
Fixed 17.9 17.9
Mobile 4.0 4.1
Remote Sensoring - 2.2

■ MOBILE SATELLITE SERVICES (MSS)
MSS refers to networks of communications satellites designed for use with

mobile and wireless devices. There are three major types including AMSS
(aeronautical MSS), LMSS (land MSS) and MMSS (maritime MSS).
Some of the major competitors in this sector include: Globalstar; Ericsson,

Inmarsat, EchoStar Mobile Limited, Iridium Communications, Intelsat, Thuraya,
ViaSat UK Limited and ORBCOMM Europe.
Driving growth in this sector is its use in remote areas and by the mobile
workforce, logistics companies and as back-up in times of natural disasters. MSS
is seen as a key growth area for 5G, IoT and M2M and other technological
advancements, with its use for data applications also expected to rise.
A study by Northern Sky Research (NSR) observed that in addition to government

and military use, demand from the commercial market is also rising, prompting
concerns regarding the need for the allocation of more spectrum to maintain the
sector.

In the past there were different frequency bands assigned for satellite services
compared to traditional mobile services. Consumers needed to use either
separate handsets or dual frequency devices in order to access terrestrial mobile
services or satellite mobile services. There is a current movement to assign some
frequency bands to form a combined satellite and terrestrial mobile services
offering, paving the way for streamlined devices able to access either service from
the same provider.
MSS and 5G
MSS will play an important role in 5G development and is expected to deliver

opportunities for the satellite sector. While there are technological and spectrum
issues to overcome; the satellite sector is working closely with the 3GPP to
develop 5G which provides the opportunity to make sure satellite services are
better integrated and interoperable with 5G – unlike in the past when 3G and 4G
LTE were introduced.
In particular, MSS is positioning itself for traffic offloading which can be achieved
using multi-casting technology and edge servers. This backhaul network function
will be especially useful in rural, marine and remote areas.
MSS statistics
According to the SIA, in 2016 global MSS revenues grew to $3.6 billion, up from
$3.4 billion in 2015. By 2017 this revenue had grown to $4 billion.
MSS for emerging markets
Satellite communications play an important role in providing mobile

communications for both developed and developing nations. Satellite services
have become a more attractive proposition in recent years due to the
improvements to capacity, lowering of costs and its ability to offer wide coverage.

South Pacific and South East Asia

In 2019 and 2020 an important telecoms development is occurring for many
countries located in the South Pacific and South-East Asia with the launch of the
Kacific-1 satellite. There has been much anticipation surrounding the introduction
of the satellite which is developed by Kacific Broadband Satellites Group. The
high-throughput Ka-band satellite was scheduled for Launch on December 16th
2019 by the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Cape Canaveral in Florida, USA.
This new satellite will supply additional mobile broadband capacity to 25

countries including American Samoa, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei, Cook Islands,
Fiji, French Polynesia, Guam, Indonesia, Kiribati, Malaysia, Myanmar, Federated
States of Micronesia, Nepal, New Zealand, Niue, Northern Mariana, Papua New
Guinea, Philippines, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu and
Vanuatu.
The satellite is expected to vastly improve mobile and mobile broadband services
in remote and rural markets and will offer streaming speeds of up to 50mb/s. It
will utilise 56 Ka-band narrow beams and has been built by Boeing.
Many of the countries which will benefit from the satellite services offered by
Kacific-1 currently have mobile subscriber penetration levels at less than 100%
and mobile broadband penetration levels at less than 90%.
Fixed-broadband penetration is traditionally low in the developing markets of

these regions. There are numerous rural and remote communities which are
difficult to access due to either being surrounded by oceans or mountainous
terrains, leading to a high reliance on telecoms and internet services offered by
mobile infrastructure.
The launch of the Kacific-1 satellite will not only provide or improve access to
social mobile services (voice, social media) for many of these communities, but

also those offered by the Internet and digital economy (e-health and e-
government).
Chart 1 - Mobile subscriber and mobile broadband penetration rates - countries to benefit
from the Kacific-1 satellite
160
140
120
Penetration per 100 inhabitants
100
80
60
40
20
0
Bh h
ru tan
ok lam
ly ji
do ia
Ki a
M ati
ro ia
al Mya ia
ub ar
pu w Z of)
Gu d
a
S s
Is a
or ds
te
Va lu
u
i
nd
e
si
Ph ine
ng
es
at
ew lan
F
M ays
va
es
nm
in
Ti lan
rib
m am
ne
ne
ne
u
nu
e lic
d
la
To
Co sa
Tu
pp
ea
-L
la
al
Is
s
ng
ili
Po
ic
on
In
m
ep
Ba
Da
ch
N
(R
lo
ei
a
en
So
un
Fr
ep
Pa
Br
Mobile penetration (e) % Active mobile broadband penetration (e) %
Notes:
1Chart prepared November 2019, based on 2017 and 2018 data. 2017 data provided in the absence of 2018 data availability
from the ITU 2Country list is ranked alphabetically only. 3Data rounded. 4 Penetration refers to per 100 inhabitants. 5 Includes
multiple subscriptions.6 Data not available for America Samoa, Niue and Guam and they have been excluded from this
chart.
Africa
The development of satellite services across Africa has matured in recent years.
Traditionally, the high cost of satellite internet connectivity meant that the user
base was limited, being restricted to certain sections of industry (particularly oil
and gas exploration and extraction), as well as to NGOs and government
agencies.

More recently though, advances in technology and higher satellite capacity has
dramatically brought down access pricing. In conjunction, satellite-based services
have been promoted by the government to supplement mobile networks in a bid
to widen the availability of telecoms services to rural and remote areas. Some
governments have also promoted satellites as an infrastructure asset required to
develop their countries as regional ICT hubs, and so attract business and
economic growth.
A number of satellite efforts are in place (in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and
Kenya, for example) geared towards weather forecasting, food security mapping,
livestock and wildlife monitoring, and disaster management. The African Union
adopted a space strategy in 2017, approved the Statutes of the African Space
Agency in January 2018 and nominated Egypt as the host county for the Agency’s
headquarters in February 2019. The Agency is tasked with addressing how space
technologies can be deployed to manage a wide range of issues in the region.
In terms of telecoms, two trends are noticeable:
Firstly, the deployment of a single or at most a small number of satellites targeted

for specific markets. These are supported by governments, often with funding and
technical expertise from China.
 Egypt: The country was the first in the Middle East and Africa region to have its
own satellite, with the NileSat 101 launched in 1998. NileSat 102 followed in 2000,
as did the EgyptSat-1 satellite in 2007. Following its loss in 2010, the replacement
EgypSat-2 was launched in April 2014 but it too was lost in May 2015. A second
replacement craft, EgyptSat-A, is being financed by the National Space
Administration of China (CNSA). The MisrSat II satellite is also being financed by
China. In September 2019 the project entered into a design phase, with the
assembly and integration of the satellite to be undertaken in Egypt.
 Ethiopia: Ethio Telecom was prevented by the government from procuring its own
telecoms satellite when the latter’s own Information Network Security Agency
(INSA) developed its own satellite plans. These came to nought, which enabled
Ethio Telecom in January 2019 to proceed with developing its satellite program,
and so enable it to offer broadband services and save the annual $12 million cost
of leasing satellite capacity. The Ethiopian Institute of Space Technology and

Science (ESSTI) expected to launch its first satellite from China, to be used for
monitoring water, agriculture, climate, environment and mining.
Secondly is the use of constellations of small low-orbit satellites. These are

generally funded by private companies such as Facebook, premised on business
opportunities while promoting altruistic concepts regarding the spread of internet
access as a means of improving economic and social exchanges.
 SpaceX has launched 120 StarLink satellites (in two batches, in May and
November 2019). Each weighing only about 230kg, the satellites will initially cover
North America, but the company plans to launch up to 12,000 satellites in a ten-
year $10 billion program.
 OneWeb Satellites (a venture between Airbus and OneWeb) has operated a number
of low-orbit satellites since early 2019 and aims to provide global coverage from a
fleet of about 650 units. A deal with the ISP Talia provides internet coverage across
Africa. Rwanda relies on OneWeb’s Icyerekezo satellite to provide broadband
connectivity to schools.
 Amazon announced plans in April 2019 to build its Kuiper satellite system, a
constellation of 3,236 satellites set at three altitudes ranges to offer broadband
connectivity in three zones of latitude. Unlike OneWeb, Facebook and SpaceX
which are focussed on broadband services, the Kuiper System aims to be
attractive for the transportation sector (aircraft, shipping).

Highlighted trend for 2020: Fixed broadband
Highlighted trend for 2020: Fixed

broadband
A key driver of global fixed broadband growth around the world is the increasing
appetite for bandwidth which is led by the emerging markets of Asia, Africa and
the Middle East. The growth of data centres and cloud technology is also creating
a need for high-speed broadband infrastructure.
From a consumer perspective, high-speed fixed broadband access is used for

home-based entertainment services including 4K TVs, multiple-player gaming,
virtual reality, video-on-demand and video streaming. Services such as e-health
and e-government also require reliable and fast broadband access.
For these reasons, fibre networks have become a key investment area and most
national high-speed broadband network projects are now based around Fibre-to-
the-Premises (FttP). There is also a boom in submarine cable build-outs underway
around the world.
Driving this growth is the recognition by governments that high-speed broadband

networks are essential for future society developments relating to smart cities
and smart infrastructure, which have the potential to radically change the world.
Fixed broadband infrastructure has become important for the economic growth
with a global study by the ITU finding that on average “an increase of 10 per cent
in fixed broadband penetration yielded an increase in 0.8 per cent in Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) per capita.” (Note: Study included 139 countries and was
conducted between 2010 and 2017).

Exhibit 7 – Fixed broadband networks are important for society

Many countries and governments around the world are actively investigating the social and
economic benefits that can be achieved through the deployment of a mainly fibre-based
telecoms infrastructure.
Services that depend on high quality broadband infrastructure include e-health, e-education,
e-business, digital media, e-government and smart infrastructure. Fibre-based infrastructure
deployment requires vision and recognition of the fact that many of today’s social, economic
and sustainability problems can only be solved with the assistance of ICT.
The reason this type of network is needed relates to the social and economic needs of our
societies, and there are many clear examples that indicate that we are running out of steam
trying to solve some of our fundamental problems in traditional ways.
The United Nations is also addressing some of the more serious issues which exist in our
society, via its Sustainable Development Goals, and ICT is going to be fundamental to
assisting in this process.
■ FIBRE BROADBAND WILL BE NEEDED FOR 5G
Recently there has been a focus on fibre-based broadband and its role in 5G
developments.
5G as a viable commercial mass market alternative might be between 6 years and

possibly even up to 10 years away. It will first appear in the more densely
populated and developed urban areas. Importantly, for 5G to become a mass
market reality; it will not only require the 4G LTE infrastructure, but it will also
require fibre broadband.
5G will require access to a fibre optic backbone in order to provide the affordable
high-speed services that are discussed by the vendors and the mobile operators
alike. Currently in most western economies, not much more than 50% of mobile
towers are currently linked to fibre optic networks – 5G could require a hundred-
fold increase in mobile base stations and most of them will need to be linked to a
fibre optic network.
In the USA, for example, investment in mobile networks has been aimed at keeping
pace with consumer demand for data and this also requires considerable

upgrades to fibre backhaul. This is mainly because most traffic in the US, up to
80%, is sent from the home or office and is offloaded onto Wi-Fi networks rather
than being carried on mobile networks.
To keep pace with demand, backhaul between a cell tower and the wired internet
will need to cope with far higher traffic volumes in coming years, particularly after
2020 when the number of devices connected to 5G networks will grow rapidly.
The wireless industry association CTIA estimated that by 2022, a quarter of US
mobile subscriptions will be on 5G networks.
When comparing wireless to fibre; it is important to note that, while wireless has
a very limited capacity to carry lots of data over any distance - fibre can carry
enormous amounts of data over greater distances. So, from a network efficiency
point of view, fibre-based infrastructure will always win over wireless and is
needed for both the underlying backbone and backhaul purposes.
BuddeComm has always stated that both mobile infrastructure and fibre
infrastructure are essential infrastructure. It is not a case of either/or. In the end;
mobile services will just provide local access linked to a fibre optic infrastructure.
In other words, the majority of infrastructure needed to deliver 5G will be based
on an FttH – or at least FttC (Fibre to the Curb) – infrastructure. Fixed Wireless
Access for 5G (based on fibre networks) is expected to play a large role in
ensuring the 5G networks can cope with the increased traffic.
Given the backbone infrastructure requirements for 5G - it is impossible for the

industry to deliver mass market 5G services within the short and even the medium
term; so, a 6-10 year horizon for such a level of 5G penetration across most
markets is far more realistic.
5G will most likely be initially installed in pockets where there is a clear business
case (for a premium service) and where there is plenty of fibre available to provide
a fast and reliable service, such as in urban areas.

5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
While current Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) services, based on 4G LTE, have
provided the ability for households to obtain access to mobile broadband services
in areas where fixed broadband is not available – it has never really provided a
comparable service in terms of speeds and reliability - and connecting the “last
mile” has been expensive.
These issues are expected to change with 5G FWA, as it will be cheaper to install
and establish connectivity. It is also going to provide faster data speeds and
higher level of service. In some cases, it may become viable to offer 5G FWA in
urban markets, as an alternative to fixed broadband, as well as in the traditional
rural and remote areas.
For more information on 5G, see separate report: Global Mobile Infrastructure - 5G
Activity Escalates Around the World.
■ GLOBAL FIXED BROADBAND SUBSCRIBERS
It is expected that by 2025, there will be over 1.2 billion fixed broadband
subscribers worldwide. Of these subscribers, around 59% would be using a variant
of fibre-based fixed broadband access, according to a study by Point Topic.

Table 17 – Global - fixed broadband subscribers – 2010 – 2020
Year Fixed broadband subscribers

(billion)
2010 0.52
2011 0.59
2012 0.64
2013 0.69
2014 0.73
2015 0.83
2016 0.91
2017 1.00
2018 1.05
2019 1.09
2020 (e) 1.12
Source: BuddeComm based on ITU and Point Topic

Note: Table updated January 2020.
■ GLOBAL SUBMARINE CABLE OVERVIEW
The demand for bandwidth has led to a boom in submarine cable build-outs
underway around the world.
Focus is on developing economies
Many leading global organisations have now publicly acknowledged the

enormous importance of well-developed broadband infrastructure for a
sustainable future in terms of the economy, society and environment. As a result,
there is massive government encouragement to build and improve upon fixed and
mobile broadband infrastructure in many parts of the world. This is also leading
to an increasingly competitive environment with governments, cable operators,
incumbents, mobile operators and alternative players all vying for a slice of the
market.

Submarine infrastructure continues to be developed for international

communications as it can carry more data and provide faster connection speeds
than the other alternative, satellites. It is estimated around 95% of international
traffic is carried by undersea networks. Starting in around 2016, we have
witnessed quite an explosion in submarine cable build-outs, and this continues
today with at least 60 new submarine cables expected to be launched in the next
three years.
In 1988 the first transatlantic cable based on fibre-optics was installed, via the
TAT-8 system. Now, in 2019, more than one million kilometres of submarine cable
transverse between the continents (except Antarctica), supplying the means for
international communication.
While governments and telecom operators have traditionally banded together to

build submarine cables; in recent years we have seen the rise of content-providers
privately investing in such infrastructure. Facebook and Microsoft, for instance,
have demonstrated considerable interest in submarine cable ownership via the
MAREA cable between Spain and the US East Coast, and industry heavy-weight
Google also has two private intercontinental undersea cables in the pipeline.
Facebook recognises the potential of the African market and is reported to be
considering building a cable system linking a number of ocean-facing countries
(with terrestrial connectivity to land-locked interior nations) to provide a direct link
to the company’s data centres in Europe and Asia.
The rise of cloud technology and data centres globally, along with an increasing
number of internet users and internet traffic coming from developing markets like
Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, is driving the demand for
bandwidth and the resulting growth in the number of submarine cables. There are
many submarine cable build-outs occurring in these regions: in Asia, for example,
there is a consortium developing the Southeast Asia–Japan 2 (SJC2) submarine
cable system which will link a number of countries across Asia.

Looking at the Pacific region, access to internet connectivity is a serious problem

for the many islands dispersed over vast oceanic spaces. Submarine fibre-optic
networks are expensive to build and maintain, with capital costs that are
prohibitive for small island communities. Some countries must rely solely on
geostationary satellites. As a result, bandwidth is limited, and broadband prices
are extremely high.
Internet access in Papua New Guinea (PNG), for example, is still extremely
expensive and far beyond the financial reach of most of the population. While
there is existing submarine cable infrastructure in place, it is considered to be no
longer adequate and internet services are slow. International communications are
provided only by satellite in The Solomon Islands.
However, this situation is expected to change with the build-out of a new

submarine cable known as the Coral Sea Cable System which will link PNG to the
Solomon Islands, with a connecting cable to the Australian (Sydney) landing
station. It will provide increased capacity, speed and reliability as well as reduce
internet costs for consumers.
Turning our attention to the Middle East, Oman has been identified as a potential
key location for data centres. It is well positioned in the Middle East as it is located
between Asia, Africa and Europe and has access to several submarine cable
systems via landing stations located close to the capital, Muscat. Equinix, one of
the largest data centre operators in the world, selected to partner with Omantel in
mid-2018 and agreed to build a new data centre in Oman.
BuddeComm notes that Israel will soon benefit from a new submarine cable.
While the launch of two new submarine cables in 2012 helped to increase
international bandwidth in Israel - this will be further supported with a new cable
launch expected in 2020. Quantam Cable agreed to build the system, which will
link Israel to Spain. The sub-sea cable is expected to cost around US $200 million
to build and will offer 40 times the capacity of other available systems.

Africa has become a focus for the submarine cable sector and much activity and
investment is anticipated in this region in coming years. A key stimulus for this
activity is the ambition of governments to develop telecom infrastructure as a
necessary prop to spur economic growth and job creation. With infrastructure in
place, governments are also keen to create ICT hubs servicing regional
economies. To this end new data centres are coming online and being
commissioned (so reducing latency and bandwidth costs for end-users),
terrestrial fibre projects are being extended (such as the second phase of
Nigeria’s NIPTI program affecting areas in the south of the country) and regional
alliances are being forged to facilitate cross-border cable projects. The Trans-
Saharan Backbone is a key example of such co-operative developments.
These ambitions ultimately rely on improved submarine connectivity. While

Djibouti has long been a hub for international cables in the Horn of Africa region,
more activity is now being seen in North Africa with upgrades to cables linking to
Europe, as well as East Africa and connections to India and the Far East.
Angola has become a cable hub for southern Africa. The country is a landing point
for the SAT-3/WASC/SAFE submarine cable system connecting South Africa to
Europe and the Far East, and also other systems including the WACS, WASACE
and SACS. The country’s connections to international fibre cables are managed
by Angola Cables, set up as a public-private partnership. Progress has been
steady, with the recent completion of the data centre at Fortaleza in Brazil. This
will channel traffic on the SACS and Monet cables between southern Africa, Latin
America and the US.
The successful deployment of cables in the continent in recent years has pushed
Africa from the periphery to the top table. For consumers in a region largely
dependent on mobile broadband for connectivity, the improved bandwidth and
lower cost of services resulting from these developments will continue to
encourage entrepreneurial activity and develop economic growth.

The developing markets are certainly benefitting from the intense interest in
building submarine cables. Many projects are underway which will link either
countries within regions or perhaps emerging markets to developed ones.
While the developing countries may seek financial assistance to build the
submarine cables, many of these countries will often retain ownership of the cable
system. This is the case with the Coral Sea Cable System. While Australia will
provide the majority of financial assistance, it will be majority owned by PNG and
The Solomon Islands and they will retain all revenues generated.
In conclusion, the global submarine cable market is in a growth phase again with
a key focus on linking the developing economies. This will have a significant
impact on many of these markets as they will finally be able to access many of
the economic and social benefits that good quality high-speed internet access
can provide. Services that depend on high quality broadband infrastructure
include e-health, e-education, e-business, digital media, e-government and smart
infrastructure.

Conclusion – 2020 is the year of 5G
Conclusion – 2020 is the year of

5G
Industry attention will be focused heavily on 5G in the year 2020. This is because
the developments relating to 5G are reaching a tipping point, with commercial
deployments taking place, 5G capable devices emerging and the global ITU 5G
standards becoming available.
There are also interesting developments taking place with the deployment of
mobile satellite services and it will be interesting to observe the impact the
improved services will have on some of the rural and remote areas of the
emerging markets.
In 2020 the operators and governments around the world will also continue to
steadily deploy fixed-broadband networks, based on fibre – perhaps now with a
greater sense of urgency as it becomes clearer that is will be needed to provide
the backhaul capabilities required for 5G. Many submarine cable build-outs are
underway as well which will improve international connectivity.
Overall, it will be interesting to observe the impact 5G has on the many

applications, services and infrastructure within the current telecoms ecosystem.
While there will be many positive outcomes from 5G – it may also cause
disruption to many of our existing industries.

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Key Trends for 2020 - 5G, Mobile

Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

BuddeComm provides a complimentary copy of our Glossary of Abbreviations. See Glossary of

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

 With more mature markets becoming increasingly dependent on replacement purchases

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

■ Smart communities are the ultimate goal 1

Growth opportunities for the telecoms industry 3

Secondary data centres 4

Fibre networks required for data centres 5

Software-Defined Networking (SDN) 6

Data centres and SME 8

Exiting the market 8

Global telecom statistics 12

■ Leading telecom operators 14

■ Global mobile subscriptions 15

Smart phone shipments 17

Global mobile broadband statistics 19

■ Mobile broadband subscriptions 19

■ Regional mobile broadband penetration 20

Highlighted Trend for 2020: 5G 23

■ 5G statistics and forecasts 25

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

Spectrum allocation around the world 30

■ Top countries leading 5G developments 32

■ Key industry consortiums 34

Highlighted trend for 2020: Mobile satellite 35

■ Satellite industry overview 35

■ Mobile Satellite Services (MSS) 38

MSS for emerging markets 39

Highlighted trend for 2020: Fixed broadband 44

■ Fibre broadband will be needed for 5G 45

5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) 47

■ Global fixed broadband subscribers 47

■ Global submarine cable overview 48

Focus is on developing economies 48

Conclusion – 2020 is the year of 5G 53

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

Table 2 - Global - Top 10 public telecoms operators by revenue – 2018 ................................................................................14

Table 3 – Global – unique mobile subscribers – 2010 - 2020 .................................................................................................16

Table 4 – Regional - mobile subscriptions – 2014 – 2019.......................................................................................................17

Table 5 – Global – smart phone shipments – 2016 – 2020 ....................................................................................................18

Table 8 – Regional – mobile broadband penetration – 2014 – 2019......................................................................................22

Table 9 - Regional – active mobile broadband subscriptions – 2014 - 2019 ..........................................................................22

Table 10 – Global – market share of mobile technologies – 2018 .........................................................................................26

Table 11 – Global – 5G subscription forecast – 2020 – 2023.................................................................................................27

Table 12 – Potential frequency bands for 5G deployment .......................................................................................................29

Table 13 – Top 13 - Leading countries demonstrating 5G progress - 2019............................................................................32

Table 14 – Global – satellite industry revenue – 2008 – 2018 ................................................................................................36

Table 15 – Global - satellite services revenue – 2008 – 2018 .................................................................................................37

Table 17 – Global - fixed broadband subscribers – 2010 – 2020............................................................................................48

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

Exhibit 2 – Google Tensorflow .....................................................................................................................................................9

Exhibit 3 – Angelina and digital gaming ....................................................................................................................................11

Exhibit 4 – Key global developments towards 5G standardisation .........................................................................................23

Exhibit 5 – Examples of 5G device manufacturers ...................................................................................................................28

Exhibit 6 - Key considerations for government and regulators in relation to 5G.....................................................................33

Exhibit 7 – Fixed broadband networks are important for society ............................................................................................45

© Copyright Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, 2020

We also have other specific Global market reports: