Recensions / Reviews 391

Modernization and Postmodernization: Cultural, Economic, and

Political Change in 43 Societies
Ronald Inglehart
Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997, pp. x, 453
Modernization and Postmodernization is the boldest installment of Ronald
Inglehart's pursuit of value change. It identifies postmaterialist value change
as only one aspect of a much broader cultural shift linked to a massive causal
sequence of historical and institutional events.
Inglehart argues that we can discern coherent and predictable patterns of
economic, social, political and cultural change. Societies around the world fol-
low a similar path of development—from preindustrial to modern to postmod-
ern—albeit at different times, at different paces and through distinct meander-
ings. As they experience similar socio-economic conditions, they undergo
"similar cultural changes in politics, economics, sex and gender norms, and
religion" (49). We are likely to encounter congruity of societal components in
any society at any one time because societies need "mutually supportive polit-
ical, economic, and cultural systems" to persist (15). Societies whose systems
do not adapt to existing conditions and to each other are likely to perish in the
long run.
The book focuses on the two latest phases of the development process:
modernization and postmodernization. During modernization, industrializa-
tion brings forth urbanization, mass education, occupational specialization
and a shift from traditional to rational-legal authority. But, when economic
development yields diminishing marginal gains in material and subjective
well-being, the process turns to postmodernization. On the cultural front, post-
modernization, aside from continued secularization and individualization, in-
volves shifts from survival values to well-being values, from achievement
motivation to postmaterialist motivation and from bureaucratic authority to
participatory management. Such values are accompanied by a "variety of
societal changes, from equal rights for women to democratic political institu-
tions and the decline of state socialist regimes" (6).
As mentioned earlier, the world does not move as a whole through this
sequence. "Instead, some societies (such as Nigeria) are starting to modern-
ize; others (such as China) are now modernizing very rapidly; still others
(such as South Korea), seem to be reaching a turning point where they may be
about to begin Postmodernization; and still others, such as Britain, Germany,
and the United States, are well into the Postmodernization process" (22). The
author also warns us that, as modernization was not the end of the story, post-
modernization is not the final chapter.
Modernization and Postmodernization presents an interesting and quite
cogent theory about the congruity of change in economic, social, political and
cultural factors, and about the path of development. It must especially be com-
mended for its tremendous geographical and historical scope. Further elabora-
tions and refinements could nonetheless add depth to the model. One promis-
ing avenue concerns the periods of incongruity between societal components.
How well can societies manage without mutually supportive systems? How
does the synchronisation of components emerge?
Although the theory is relatively sound, it shows signs of strain. First,
there are inconsistent statements. For instance, it is argued at one point that
postmaterialists control the political agenda through new and old parties, and
that today's issues "mainly concern support and opposition to Postmoderniza-
tion" (266). In contrast, we later read that the decline in voter turnout and
party loyalty is largely attributable to the fact that younger postmodern cohorts
392 Recensions / Reviews

are not enticed by political parties which do not "adequately reflect the hottest
contemporary issues" (311).
Second, there are vulnerable arguments. Chapter 6, for example, con-
tends that correlations between aggregate well-being, interpersonal trust, post-
materialism and democratic stability hinge upon causality flowing from cul-
ture to democracy, and not the other way around. It is likely that well-being
and trust are associated with the stability of any political regime, democratic
or not. Moreover, it is probable that all three attitudes are products, not conse-
quences, of democratic stability (since the probability of being arbitrarily
arrested or killed certainly affects individuals' sense of security).
The book relies on an impressive data set, the World Values Surveys
(conducted among 43 societies of varying development in 1990, including 22
previously probed in 1981), to build an analysis which goes beyond case stud-
ies to investigate societal factors and dynamics on a truly global scale. Ingle-
hart does not have adequate time series to prove that societies have been mov-
ing through his sequence of development over the past centuries, but he pro-
vides appropriate circumstantial evidence. First, cross-sectional correlations
between economic advancement, democratization and modern/postmodern
values are reported. For example, a culture of thrift and determination,
labelled the Protestant Ethic by Weber, exists outside of western Europe (nota-
bly in east Asia), and is generally accompanied by economic growth which, in
turn, contributes to democratic stability. Second, trends among 40 values in a
subset of advanced societies document the existence of a postmodern cultural
shift. This shift in some ways represents the decline of the Protestant Ethic.
On the other hand, a fundamental aspect of Inglehart's theory is not sub-
stantiated empirically. The crucial question is no longer "Is a cultural shift
taking place?" but rather "Why is it occurring?" Inglehart's answer to the lat-
ter is the familiar but still controversial hypothesis that growing existential
security during individuals' formative years leads to increasingly postmodern
generations which gradually transform the culture of a society through genera-
tional replacement. Unfortunately, this book provides little convincing evi-
dence to corroborate this hypothesis. While there is evidence of a link between
security and postmaterialism, the link between postmodernism and security
remains unsupported. We do not find a decisive test which demonstrates that
existential security explains postmodern values and their movement. And
when economic growth is used as a proxy for security, the results are far from
breathtaking.
Modernization and Postmodernization will not resolve the controversies
which surround Inglehart's work. Those who have doubts about the robustness
of the postmaterialist thesis will find tender spots to sink their teeth into.
Those who embrace the cultural perspective will be impressed by the widen-
ing breadth and scope of the framework. In all cases, this book will surely
energize debates in fields as varied as comparative politics, political behaviour
and political theory.
PATRICK FOURNIER University of British Columbia