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/ Internal Assignment in International Banking & Finance Topic- “Improving Availability

of Trade Finance in Low-Income Countries: In Reference to Covid-19Pandemic” NAME:
Divyanshu Gupta ROLL NO: 419 DIVISION- E Course: BBA.LLB (Hons.) Submitted to Adv.
M.G. Bapat Mrs. Trupti Rathi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT 3 RESEARCH QUESTION 3
LITERATURE REVIEW 4 INTRODUCTION TO TRADE FINANCE 4 Why trade finance is
essential 5 HOW COVID 19 HAS AFFECTED TRADE FINANCE 6 Existence of Trade
Finance Gap before Covid-19 6 Trade Finance during Covid-19 Crisis 7 Increase volatile
situation across markets due to Covid 19- 8 Trade Finance and curtailment of cross-
border banks from emerging markets- 9 A detailed description of how Covid-19 has
affected trade finance in 2020-2021- An analysis in three phases- 9 FUTURE PROSPECTS
OF TRADE FINANCE 12 CONCLUSION 13 REFERENCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY 14 TITLE-
IMPROVING AVAILABILITY OF TRADE FINANCE IN LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES: IN
REFERENCE TO COVID-19 PANDEMIC “For many people, economic poverty is rooted in
their inability to trade – and trade is a vital route out of poverty.” Trade Matters (DFID,
2005) ABSTRACT The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic around the world has affected
both international trade and finance.

Trade finance is an important aspect for cross-border trade, particularly for the
emerging markets and developing countries and the movement of goods across the
borders cannot occur without it. The demand and supply aspect of the economy around
the world has been affected by the global pandemic and the financial sector has been
deeply affected, whether through potential loan quality challenges or increased demand
for finance. Before the pandemic, domestic revenues and external flows to low-income
countries were already insufficient and with high public debt and additional pressure
induced by the pandemic, developing countries are still finding it difficult to finance
their trade. There has been a wide increase in the trade finance gap in emerging markets
and developing countries.

This is significant because trade finance provides short-term liquidity to the business
and further, more trade finance will be required for the developing countries when
demand for product begin to recoup. In the present context, this paper will discuss in
brief the theoretical learning of trade finance. It will also deal with how Covid-19 has
affected trade finance. In this, author has explained in detail the existence of trade
finance gap before pandemic and the current situation of trade finance after Covid 19
crisis.

Finally, author has tried to give possible solutions which can be implemented to
overcome the trade finance gap during and after covid-19 crisis in developing countries.
RESEARCH QUESTION How Covid-19 pandemic has affected trade finance gap in
developing and poor countries and what methods can be adopted to bridge the gap in
the trade finance caused by the pandemic in the developing economies? LITERATURE
REVIEW Article titled International Finance Corporation (2020), 'Why Trade Finance
Matters - Especially Now', published by Sector Economics and Development Impact
Department, November 2020, Washington, helped the author to understand how trade
finance has been affected due to Covid-19 Pandemic. The article has very well explained
the effect of the pandemic on trade finance due to which it had led to an increase in the
already existing trade finance gap in developing countries and poor countries.

However, this article does not explain the methods and solutions that could be possibly
adopted by governments, international financial institutions, and the private sector to
bridge the gap in trade finance which the author has attempted to fill in for and analyze
in the present paper. Article titledMarc Auboin, “Trade Finance, Gaps and the Covid-19
Pandemic: A Review of Events & Policy Responses to Date”, Staff Working Paper ERSD-
2021-5, published by World Trade Organization, on 11 Feb2021 helped the author
understand the trade finance during Covid-19 crisis in detail.

The article is well written and has explained the detailed analysis of the trade finance
gap during the Covid-19 crisis and had also covered in detail the analysis of the trade
finance gap after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Further, it had described the policy
responses and upcoming challenges in the paper. Article titled “Marc Auboin, Improving
the Availability of Trade Finance in Developing Countries: An assessment of Remaining
Gaps”, published by the World Trade Organization in 2016, helped the author
understand the impact of the financial crisis of 2008-2009 on trade finance market
especially in the developing and poor countries.

Further, it has helped the author to understand the fact that even after the financial
crisis that occurred in 2008-2009, a lot of countries were still facing the issue of trade
finance gap even after 8-10 years and how WTO and international financial institutions
are trying to alleviate the situation. Whilethis paper deflects from the main theme that
the author has taken, however, an attempt has been made by the author to compare the
situation of the trade finance gap after the financial crisis of 2008 till starting of the
pandemic and trade finance gap crisis during Covid-19.

Article titled, “Trade Financing & Covid 19” published by World Trade Organization in
2020 had helped the author to understand the importance of increasing the trade
finance gap in developing countries and the possible solutions WTO has provided to
reduce the trade finance gap. INTRODUCTION TO TRADE FINANCE Trade finance can
occur between international countries or can occur within the domestic boundary of one
country and is involved in the financial activities relating to buying and selling of goods
and services.The financial activities involved in trade finance include issuing letters of
credit, lending facilities, export factoring, export credits, etc.Commercial banks,
insurance firms, export credit agencies, suppliers, purchasers, etc. provides trade finance.

Scholars are of the view that trade finance is not the present-day concept, but it has
been involved since ancient times. The first known letter of credit dates to ancient Egypt,
where ancient records have shown that debt has to be paid upon the delivery of wheat,
with a right of execution to the noteholder in case the payment is not made. Thus, the
importance of trade finance/short-term trade finance can be accorded since the ancient
period and it has been associated with the expansion of international trade providing
liquidity and security to the movement of goods and services.

Why trade finance is essential Trade finance is essential because without it, goods
cannot be traded across borders and it will hamper the growth of the countries involved
in international trade. Generally, cross-border trade involves a lot of risks, however,
trade finance instruments, that are intermediated by commercial banks are designed to
provide innovative solutions with cross-border payments and timing, whichis amplified
by jurisdictional and operational differences among parties. The most common method
of bank-intermediated trade finance is usually the letter of credit.

It reduces the risk of payment by providing a better framework where the bank makes
payment on behalf of the importer to the exporter once delivery of goods is confirmed.
Therefore, in this scenario, the cross-border correspondent bank undertakes the
payment risk of the respondent bank i.e., importer and in turn, also agrees to pay for the
imported goods on behalf of its customer. Thus, trade finance is essential for
international cross-border payments and especially during a crisis, when risk increases
and much-needed capital and liquidity can suck out from exporting country and the
importing country.

HOW COVID 19 HAS AFFECTED TRADE FINANCE Existence of Trade Finance Gap before
Covid-19 While trade finance markets had come back its normal conditions after the
financial crisis of 2008-2009, however, its aftereffect can still be seen in some of the
developing and emerging economies.Due to the current pandemic crisis, many
developing countries are having difficulties in accessing trade credit where the trade
finance gaps were already high before the pandemic. This can be accessed from the fact
that the global trade finance gap around 2018 had reached an estimate of 1.5 trillion. In
2019, the trade finance gap in Africa stood around $ 82 million and in Asia, the trade
finance gap stood around $ 700 billion.

The primary reason for such a large trade finance gap persisted due to the application
of Small-medium enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) rejected by banks. These SMEs were not
able to find appropriate alternative financing. Various reasons for rejection of trade
financing loans by banks were due to lack of profitability from banks, lack of
technologies in low developing countries, lack of global standards for digital finance,
lack of proper information available during the application process.Another factor that
has contributed to this aspect is the non-supportive factor from banks to the traders in
the developing countries.

Banks are more selective and reject a large number of requests for trade finance and
they offer fewer trade finance facilities. Asian Development Bank thinks that the
existence of a trade gap between developing countries is due to the weak savings,
including lack of know-how in managing risk and trade finance products, and a high
perception of corporate and counterpart risk in the countries concerned.These problems
have only worsened since the 2008-2009 crisis.

Furthermore, in the Bank for International Settlements Report of 2014, it was stated that
global banks across the world had reduced their network of “correspondent banks” in
the developing countries, thereby inhibiting the scope of local banks to find suitable
counterparties internationally. Therefore, these problems have only worsened since the
2008-2009 crisis. However, after the crisis, since then, WTO, World Bank, with the
support of Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs) had addressed the issue of trade
finance by supporting MDBs, increasing training, provideknowledge on trade finance
products, open a dialogue with trade finance regulators and supporting capacity-
building activities in this field. MDBs have expanded their different kinds of trade finance
products such as supply chain finance, working capital, trade guarantees, warehousing
finance, etc.
to the low-income countries and developing countries, with special emphasis on SMEs.
Asian Development Bank had also provided the number of trade transactions with a
double capacity involving SMEs in the year 2017-2019 i.e., approx. from 2004 to 4000
SMEs. Therefore, it can be observed that Financial Institutions have been providing
support to the developing countries in their trade finance facilities since it is a driving
force in reducing poverty and engine for economic growth. Trade Finance during Covid-
19 Crisis Since ever the Covid-19 has been declared as pandemic and thereafter the
beginning of the crisis, importers and exporters are finding it difficult to obtain trade
finance for their trading.

Due to this, operating cash flows were frozen in the initial phase of Covid-19 and firms
were not able to rely on inter-firm credit to dimmish the financial effects. Further,
liquidity rose and capital remained high, with an increasing demand on the financial
system’s capital. Therefore, the author shall analyze this concept in a three-fold concept.
Firstly, how the covid-19 crisis has caused the volatile situation across the markets,
Secondly, how the covid-19 crisis has caused a curtailment of cross-border banks from
emerging markets.

Lastly, the author has given a detailed description of how Covid-19 has affected trade
finance in 2020-2021 by analyzing it in three phases. Increase volatile situation across
markets due to Covid 19 The Covid-19 pandemic had made the situation worse
regarding the existing financial vulnerabilities and has increased volatility around the
world and especially in developing countries. Many developing countries and low-
income countries have reported deceleration of debt service capacity, limited availability
of liquidity, and operating cash flows.

These financial vulnerabilities have limited the supply of short-term liquidity and trade
finance in many low-income countries. Further, cross-border investment around the
world has also decreased by 31 per in the 1st quarter of 2020 and 32 percent in the 2nd
quarter in 2020 as stated in the below-mentioned figure.Global FDI flows had fallen by
50 percent in the 1st half of 2020 as compared to the second half of 2019 and low-
income countries have experienced a great decline in the FDI outflows.

(Here, SSA represents Sub-Saharan Africa; EAP represents East Asia and the Pacific; ECA
represents Europe and Central Asia; LAC represents Latin America and the Caribbean;
MENA represents Middle East and North Africa; SA represents South Asia and AEs
represents Advanced Economies.) Trade Finance and curtailment of cross-border banks
from emerging markets- Many international banks who were having expertise in trade
finance were facing increased capital constraints and other regulatory pressures that
had influenced their market operations even before the Covid-19 crisis. As banks pay
out more on regulatory compliance, therefore, the lower-margin correspondent banking
business line is more vulnerable to supply pressure.

Further, European Bank for Reconstruction & Development (EBRD) in its report said that
many of its partner banks from developing countries had to close their offices in the
initial phase and minimize physical contact with customers.The staff of these banks was
not connected to bank IT systems, neither knew the IT system properly and therefore
couldn’t work remotely, hence created an operational supply limit for trade finance.
Even, Earnest Young, a private sector firm has also observed that Covid-19 has affected
the trade finance sector and banks are not able to complete letters of credit and invoice
discounting transactions properly.

Thus, Covid 19 crisis has affected the trade finance of cross-border banks in emerging
markets. A detailed description of how Covid-19 has affected trade finance in 2020-
2021- An analysis in three phases Phase I: Trade Finance in the initial lockdown of 2020
During this phase, the physical movement of goods was restricted and the payment
process of banks is interlinked to each other as they rely on the same set of documents,
such asinvoices, bills of lading, customs, etc.

However, it was difficult to obtain such documents as they were often required by local
legislation and it proved to be challenging during the lockdown. Therefore, without
documents, it was not possible for the transactions to get process and deliveries could
not have been made as national laws of many countries required the original documents
for verification. In developed country’s laws, the use of digital negotiable financial
instruments is invalid, and also the use of electronic trade documents is prohibited in
many countries, especially developing countries because of cyber fraud and other levels
of cyber protection. Although there is an initiative of ICC’s Digitization Working Group
and UNCTAD’s Model Law of Electronic Transferable Records in clarifying the complex
legal process, however, it is still not effective.

Further, liquidity had dried up in mostof the world. The availability of liquidity greatly
depended on the geographic location. For ex, African countries were the most affected
countries and several international financial institutions had cud down their funds. Also,
transit trade was affected so landlock countries could not receive the goods. Also, in
Latin America, Asia, and Central Europe, the liquidity in US dollars had dried up and
therefore, the demand for trade finance facilities had shot up rapidly.

Phase II: some recovery in the late spring and summer of 2020 In this phase, there was
significant improvement of operational and legal issues related to trade finance. This is
because the documentation process was digitalized, there was a relaxation of certain
requirements and greater flexibility was provided by local authorities. Though, the
digitization process was very uneven, especially in shipping documents and countries
which were lacking in digitalization.

While banks had realized that govt schemes were deployed in many countries such as
trade loan extension, repayment holidays, credit guarantee schemes, credit insurance
schemes, etc. for relief, however, liquidity issues and the deterioration of credit risk
remained a major issue as far as trade finance was concerned. Further, there has been
increased payment failures that bank had expected from counterparties, beyond sectors
that were initially impacted by the lockdown such as airlines, aeronautics, tourism,
automotive sector, etc.

The sovereign risk had worsened along with the corporate risk in many developing
countries. Moreover, banks in developing countries and poor countries would not find it
easy for financing many types ofgoods, such as consumer goods, etc. Also, in this phase,
capital adequacy had become a major issue as losses on domestic and international
credit had automatically materialized. In total, trade finance suppliers believed that
situation would not improve as a corporate risk had increased, there were delayed
defaults of payment, and demand for trade had started to pick up.

Also, one of the greatest challengeswas tocontinue if not increase supply in developing
countries as Multilateral Development Banks (MDB) were using almost all of its sources
for the poorest countries, but also faced crucial demand from middle-income countries.
Phase III: challenges for a firmer recovery in late 2020-2021 The third phase refers to the
recovery of trade in late 2020 and early 2021, subject to unpredictable restrictions to
economic activities that are linked to virus transmission. This phase is very intricate as
some regions had experienced very bad corporate and sovereign debt situations and
continued support by multilateral development banks and government will be
important.

Supply chain finance has grown since mid-2020 as firms had sought out early payment
and trade demand had picked up. This was visible where financial infrastructure was very
developed. For ex, in Asia, trade finance had experienced had a strong recovery. There
was the recovery of core trade finance instruments such as import letters of credit as
well as supply chain finance arrangements in Hongkong, China, Malaysia, Indonesia,
Thailand & Vietnam. Banks had also suggested that small and medium enterprises had
joined supply chain programs, while at the same time, well-funded banks had supplied
lines of credit to be able to draw on their pending invoices.

Therefore, it was evident that banks were trying their best to maintain trade finance to
support the companies. However, the situation during this phase is still not convenient
for Africa. In a report by African Development Bank and African Import-Export Bank, it
was stated that international banks and other small local banks in Africa had engaged in
trade finance activities since the financial crisis of 2008-2009. However, this trend has
been established again since the beginning of the pandemic. As a result, the application
of small and medium enterprises for trade financing gets rejected even if the risk profile
of their trade finance assets has improved.

According to the survey, it was found that 80 percent of firms in the African continent
are SMEs and only 28 % of the bank’s trade finance facilities are extended to SMEs in
Africa. SinceSMEs are important for Africa as it boosts the economy, African
Development Bank has decided to boos the liquidity by providing the US $ 1 Billion in
the trade finance area and risk mitigation support to local African banks in member
countries. Other financial institutions in Africa are also doing the same. Thus, at this
stage, many governments, central banks, development banks have taken initiative to
stabilize the situation in trade finance markets.

FUTURE PROSPECTS OF TRADE FINANCE 2021 and the coming years will also face
continued challenges, high demand for trade finance, and risk selectivity. Trade finance
may evolve over time and new emerging players dealing with trade finance may enter
the market, however, trade fundamentally relies on a deep and complex network of
cross-border finance, unique to this asset class and economic activity. Both the private
sector and government have played their important role in trade finance during the
covid-19 crisis.

Considering that the trade finance gap persists in many middle-income countries and
poor countries, the public sector and private sector can work together: Engage in
paperless transactions:Hard-copy paper requires a lot of legal requirements and many
developing countries and developed countries for that matter still do not recognize the
legality of trade finance compliance documents in soft-copy. Therefore, if this aspect is
taken into consideration, it will optimize the digitalization of trade and will reduce both
risk and costs, and increase trade growth.

Further, UNCITRAL Model laws on electronic transferable records should be adopted so

that it can provide legal validity for the use of e-documents in the processing of trade
finance transactions. Sharing of risk can also accelerate the growth of trade finance
during this period, especially among export credit agencies, multilateral development
banks, and private sector banks. Technological solutions can help increase trade finance:
technology can be a great help to address regulatory compliance challenges that
currently restrict correspondent banking, an important aspect of trade. For e.g.,
banks can adopt new tech regulations that allow for transactional and counter-party
data pooling and analysis to automatically flag potentially problematic transactions
across a deeper set of data. Therefore, technology can help in reducing the marginal
cost of each transaction as it is less risky and more efficient and thus facilitate growth.
Other actions that can be taken to improve trade finance in the developing countries are
1) to promote various new forms of trade finance such as credit insurance, factoring,
forfaiting, in countries where there are significant trade finance gaps, 2) strengthening
the capacity of financial institutions to distribute trade finance instruments with the
support of international financial institutions.

Therefore, it is encouraged that all the actors involved in the trade finance market must
take proactive steps in recovering the trade finance market. Timely intervention is
essential to ensure that small & medium enterprises have adequate access to trade
financing and they emerge as stronger. CONCLUSION International trade has been
affected by Covid-19 in all facets. Trade finance, which has a low-risk nature is also
vulnerable to the covid crisis. The supply of trade finance is under severe pressure when
80% of the world trade relies on trade finance.

Especially in developing countries, the demand for trade finance has weakened
temporarily, as operative cash flow is will remain relatively scarce in the short term. The
trade finance gap and trade finance constraints are direct restrictions to trade itself, and
therefore, it will affect the speed and size of the global economic recovery of the
developing countries from Covid-19. Therefore, at this juncture, financing the trade will
be significant to restart the production in many developing countries where the
economy is still in its recovery phase.

Both private and public sector(government) can work in this area to bridge the gap in
trade finance occurred due to Covid-19 pandemic and adopt the possible steps
suggested by the author above so that developing countries can recover their economy.
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<1% - https://www.forbes.com/2010/07/24/lamy-africa-trade-intelligent-investing-
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<1% -
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<1% - https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/978-1-4648-1280-4_ch2
<1% - https://pt.scribd.com/document/428591351/Tradefinsme-e
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