PART V: Product and Process Design CHAPT ER | 11) Reliability Chapter Outline 11-1 Introduction 11-2. Reliability 11-3 Life-Cycle Curve and Probability Distributions in Modeling Reliability 11-4 System Reliability 11-5 Operating Characteristic Curves 11-6 Reliability and Life Testing Plans 11-7. Summary Case Study Key Terms Exercises Referencés jan ra aoe R11 Symbols nile 2 Constant failure rate : : | vt Ft Probability density function for time to failure ad {{) Probability distribution function for time to failure (i) Reliability function at time r | rt) Fairare-rate function Probability of lot acceptance | on 6 Meantlife of product | ef n Sample size At r Rejection number T Predetermined test time a Producer's risk | @ Mean life associated with producer's risk inet B ‘Consumer's risk give @ Mean life associated with consumer's risk a } | rob l | 11-1 INTRODUCTION |i | pod In earlier chapters we dealt with quality assurance and control and explored the nin | wal of quality during the manufacture of the product or the rendering of a service, Our pone cussion focused on a specific instant in time. In this chapter we examine the conceptol reliability. Reliability is a measure of the quality of the product over the long run. Inhee the the concept of reliability is an extended time period over which the expected operatin of the product is considered: that is, we expect the product will function acrordng» certain expectations over a stipulated period of time. To ensure customer satisfaction in the performance phase, we address mesus | to improve reliability in the design phase. The complex nature of products rat | Ty many components in their construction; thus, we need to be able to calculate syS'€™ | -reliability. With the customer and warranty costs in mind, we must know the chance" | a successful operation of the product for at least a certain stipulated period of time Such ty information helps the manufacturer to select the parameters of a warranty. policy. | | | 11-2 RELIABILITY ~ Reliability is the probability of a product performing its intended function forasitl Period of time under certain specified conditions, Four aspects of reliability 7% waluear this definition. First, reliability is a probability-related concepts Ne ts alue of this probability is between 0 and 1. Second, the functional performance a eaiee as 7 meet certain stipulations. Product design will usually ensue or he Meh luct that meets or exceeds the stipulated requirements. For eat wn hase, i ig strength of a nylon cord is expected to be 1000 kg. then in its OP yi Plies sabe cord must be able to bear weights of 1000 kg or more. "Third, rlab plies successful operation over a certain period of time. Although 10 Pte ert Feast a inal ney the time requirement ensures satisfactory performates b ed period (say, 2 years), Fourth, operating or envitOO™ME 4 spt t ; ions under which product use takes place are specified. Thus, if the nylon’ forma ® itions indoors, then satisfactory ee the UA ions. In the context of these four sper sul pf scribed as having a probability of sue 000 kg for 2 years under dry conditions ified to be used under di = 4 expected for use under those. seca bility of the nylon cord might be de: mance of .92 in bearing loads of 1| . LIFE-CYCLE CURVE AND PRO! 14 ot MODELING RELIABILITY BABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS Most products gO through three distinct phases from product i fue 2] SHOWS atypical life-cycle curve for which the failure rare hs cloner os Figen of time. This curve is often referred to asthe bathtub curve; it con wa ot the tetiing phase, the chance-failure phase, and the wear-out phase (Besicrfeld 199, paisa and Sheldon 1968; Halpem 1978). Phase (Besterfield 1990; ‘The debugging phase, also known as the infants in ine failure rate as initial problems identified during eres Assinar tea ‘he chance-failure phase, between times f, and f, is then encountered failures occur ‘Tndomly and independently. This phase, in which the failure rate is constant, ily resents the useful life of the product. Following this is the wear-out phase, inwhich anincrease in the failure rate is observed. Here, at the end of their useful life, "parts i and wear out. Probability Distributions to Model Failure Rate - Exponential Distribution The life-cycle curve of Figure 11-1 shows the variation of the failure rate as a function of time. For the chance-failure phase, which represents the useful life of the product, the failure rate is constant. As a result, the exponential distribution can be ried to describe the time to failure of the product for this phase. In Chapter 4, the ex- ponental distribution was shown to have a probability density function given by f(g=aew, 120 (ua) rate, Figure 4-24 shows this density function where 2 denotes the failure ure (MTTF) for the exponential distribution was given in The mean time to fail eq, (4.40) as MTTF=1/A 1.2) Thus, if the failure rate is constant, the mean time to failure is the reciprocal of the fail- ure rate. For repairable equipment, this is also equal to the mann time between fi ures (MTBF). There will be a difference between MTBF and MTTF only if there is a significant repair or replacement time upon failure of the product Debugging ‘Wear-out Chance-failure phase phase phase i a Time (t) FIGURE 11-1 A typical life-cycle curve. 515 @ ReliabilityPCD ah Peer eres eee EG na eo a The reliability at time , R(s), is the probability of the product lasting up to a, CHAPTER 11 least time 1. It is given by R()=1-FO 1 a1 [eva- 7 (3) where F(t) represents the cumulative distribution function at time ¢ ‘The cumulative distribution function for the exponential distribution is shown in Figure 4-25, Figure 11-2 shows the reliability function, R(0, for the exponential failure distribution. At time 0, the reliability is 1, as it should be. Reliability decreases exponentially with time. Tn general, the failure-rate function r(‘) is given by the ratio ofthe time-tofallue probability density function to the reliability function. We have £0 rO=R@ (4) For the exponential failure distribution de® O= Sr implying a constant failure rate, as mentioned earlier. Example 11-1: An amplifier has an exponential time-to-failure distribution with 2 failure rate of 8% per 1000 h. What is the reliability of the amplifier at 5000 h? Find the mean timeto failure. Solution. The constant failure rate 4 is obtained as The reliability at 5000 h is = = 3 FIGURE 11-2 Reliability function for the exponential time-to-failure distribution. Time (t)me to failure is snl MTTF = 1/A = 1/0.00008 = 12,500 h |-2: What is the highest fail ple 11 2: lure rate for a hat is, successful operation) of 95% at ie (oral distribution. ‘at 4000 h? Product if itis t Assume that the (ey a Probability of " " ie time to failure follows pero The reliability at 4000 h is . Solution. ry is 95. If the constant failure rate is given by 2, we have R()=e* ’ 195 = e-A000 Wehave 40004 = 0.05129 A= 0.0000128/h = 12.8/10°h ‘us the highest failure rate is 12.8/10° h for a reliability of .95 at 4000 h. Weibull Distribution The Weibull distribution is used to model the time to failure of products that we a varying failure rate. It is therefore a candidate to model the debugging phase (tilure rate decreases with time), or the wear-out phase (failure rate increases with tine) (Henley and Kumamoto 1981). The Weibull distribution was introduced in Chapter 4. It is a three-parameter distribution whose density function is given in ¢4 (443) as no=A(! NP eal (3? y Ry (1s) a\ a a (a0 < 7<), a scale parameter, a (a> 0), Ne The parameters are a location parameter, ° i anda shape parameter B (B> 0). The probability density functions for 7= 0,a=1 and ‘eeral values of B (B= 0.5, 1,2. and 4) are shown in Figure 426. ie yag “Appropriate parameters are used to model a wide variety oF sitar Wye aad pT pe Werbll dieseibution reduces to the exponential distribution. Por relabi ‘iy modeling, the location parameter 7will be zero. If a= 1 and B=0.5, for am theaiure ee descents wath time and can therefore be used to mode) comPArEN debugging phase. Likewise, if a= 1 and B= 355, the failure fate increases with ine on so can be used to model products in the wear-out phase. In this case, the istibution approximates the normal distribution. | The reliability Tanction for the Weibull distribution is given by cy (11.6) R()=exP| a The mean time to failure, as given by €4- (444). is 1 (11.7) MTTF = ar 3! me-to-failure probability istibulion is Thefailure-rate function r(1) for the Weibull fo. _ Be (11.8) ripe san” B RO, re density ws the shape of a nction for the Weib\ | failus ; i ce fu for the Wei 3 shor he failure a } ig "etion. for values of the parame!9518 CHAPTER 11 Failure cate (rt) FIGURE 11-3 Failure-rate functions for the Weibull time- to-failure distribution for f = 0.5, 1, and 3. Time (1) Example 11-3: Capacitors in an electrical circuit have a time-to-failure distribution that can be modeled by the Weibull distribution with a scale parameter of 400 h and a shape parameter of 0.2, What is the reliability of the capacitor after 600 h of operation? Find the mean time to failure. Is the failure rate increasing or decreasing with time? Solution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution are a = 400 h and f= 02. The location parameter 7is 0 for such reliability problems. The reliability after 600 h of operation § given by R= «l-(2) ---(&) | 3381 ‘The mean time to failure is The failure-rate function is 0. 10= oop =0.0603r°* This function decreases with time. It would model components in the debugging Phas* -YSTEM RELIABILITY. oe Most products are made up of a number of components. The reliabil onent and the configuration of the system consisting of these components det ‘desis Fhe system reliability (that is, the reliability of the product). Although product 11-4 S$) com ity of cath inesagetureand maintenance influence reliability, improving reliability is ager the | Mn of design. One common approach for increasing the reliability of the system is | ai gundance in design, which is usually achieved by placing components in par- | emiGTong as one component operates, the system operates, In this section we how to compute system reliability for systems that have components in ‘ trate ceo arallel, or both. . cis, in paral | systems with Components in Series “ gaa 11-4 shows a system with three components (A, B, and C) in eres. For the sys- fio opefate, each component must operate. It is assumed that the components op- wie independently of each other (that is, the failure of one component has no {gyence onthe failure of any other component). In general if there aren components | duis, where the reliability of the ith component is denoted by Ri, the system relia- vityis Ry=RyXR2X+X Ry (119) ~ | Thesystem reliability decreases as the number of components in series increases. though overdesign in each component improves reliability, its impact would be tibet by thé number of components in series. Moreover, manufacturing capabilities and resource limitations restrict the maximum reliability of any given component. 1x | Product redesign that reduces the number of components in series is a viable et allemative. 0 Example 11-4; A module of a satellite monitoring system has 500 components in series. ‘The { relablty ofeach component is 999. Find the reliability ofthe ‘module. If the number of compo- | ¢ | nents in series is reduced (0 200, what is the reliability of the module? Solution, The system reliability for the module is 4 Ry= (.999)5 = .606 | Note that even with a high reliability of .999 for each component, the system reliability is only ‘95%. When the number of components in series is reduced to 200, the reliability of the module is ' R,= (.999)=.819 Use of the Exponential Model Ifthe system components can be assumed to have a time to failure given by the exponential distribution and each component has a constant failure rate, we can com Put the system reliability, failure rate, and mean time to failure, As noted earlier, then the components are in the chance-failure phase, the assumption of a constant , lure rate could be justified. steg SUPPOSE the system has n components in series, each with exponentially distrib ie ime-to-failure with failure rates Ay, 22, « Aw The system reliability is found as Product of the component reliabilities: \ Rose aK KM =enp| - (S| (11.10) Fiation (11.10) implies that the time to failure of the system is exponentially ted with an equivalent failure rate of S“”., ,. Thus, if each component that {+} distri 519 w Reliability i FIGURE 11-4 System with components in series.ae = 520 fails is replaced immediately CHAPTER 11 to failure for the system is given by 1 MTIF=— Da i When all components in series have an id system (a special case of eq. (11-11)] is given by 1 ME Sad Example 11-5: The automatic focus unit Each component has an exponential time-to- {05 per 4000 h, What is the reliability of each liability of the automatic focus unit for Solution. The failure rate for each component is A =.05/4000 h =125x10%h “The reliability of each component after 2000 h of operation is xpf- (12.5 x 10°*)2000] 975 The reliability of the automatic focus unit after 2000 h of operation is R, = exp[-(10 x 12.5 x 10°°)2000] =.719 ‘The mean time to failure of the automatic focus unit is MTTF = 1(10 x 12.5 x 10) = 8000 h Example 11 with another that has the same failure rate the meaning jentical failure rate, say A, the MTTF for the of a television camera has 10 components in series, “allure distribution with a constant failure rate gt 44° ‘component after 2000 h of operation? Find th ‘2000 h of operation. What is its mean time-to-failure? Refer to Example 11-5 concernin; i g the automatic focus unit of at camera, which has 10 similar components in series. It is desired for the focus unit ae (Ul, Tere! elevision | to have arel bility of | | bt of $8 afer 2000» of operation, What would be the mean time to fire of the india | Solution. Let A, be the failure rate of the focus unit. Then, A, = 102, where Aree y is found from : an the failure rate of each component. To achieve the reliability of .95 after 2000 h, the valve {ft | | 95 = exp[-A,(2000)} or 0.0000256/h ‘The failure rate for each component is A=aslo = 0.00000256/h =256/10%h The mean lime to failure for cach component nt would be / MITF=1/A a Raebraking mechanism is a critical system in the Sessothatifone fails, the brakes still work. (ne SUOmebIle. Dual subsystems thus Suppose we have n components in Parallel, with the reliabilit: of the l. th satdenoted by Ri 1.2... .m. Assuming tha the components opertc mean, wlindependently of each other, the probability of failure of each component maven bfi=1~R,, Now, the system fails only if all the components fail. Thus the probabil- iy of system failure is ; Fy=(1~ Ry)(1~ Ra) += (1 Ry) =Tla-r) ‘ot Thereliability of the system is the complement of F, and is given by R=1-F, | =! fla R) (11.12) i= | Use of the Exponential Model Ifthe time to failure of each component can be modeled by the exponential dis ‘rbution, each with a constant failure rate 4,,¢= 1, .....n, the system reliability, as Suming independence of component operation, is given by | R=) fla-e et E -Tla-e*) (11.13) it | The time-to-fal t exponentially distributed. -t0-failure distribution of the system is Not Expo! ly .__ In the special case where all components have the same failure rate A, the system | ‘lability is given by R=1-(1-6°" S218 Reliability in parallel. c FIGURE 11-5 System with component?a5 " For this situation, the mean time to failure for the system with 7 identical in parallel, assuming that each failed component is immediately replaced by an iden, cal component, is given by Af sade vie MITF=3\1+5+3 a dig Example 11-7: Find the reliability of the system shown in Figure 11-5 with three nents (A.B, and C) in parallel. The reliabilities of A, B, and C are 95, 92, and 90, respect, Solution. The system reliability is R,=1-(1—95)(1 = 92)(1 = 90) # = 1.0004 = 9996 Note that the system reliability is much higher than that of the individual components. Design. ers can increase system reliability by placing more components in parallel, but the cost of head. ditional components necessitates a trade-off between the two objectives. Example 11-8: For the system shown in Figure 11-5, determine the system reliability for 2000 h of operation, and find the mean time to failure. Assume that all three components have ‘an identical time-to-failure distribution that is exponential, with a constant failure rate $f 0.0005/h, What is the mean time to failure of each component? If it is desired for the system to have a mean time to failure of 4000 h, what should the mean time to failure be for each component? 7 Solution. The failure rate of each component is 2 = 0.0005/h. For 2000 h of operation, the system reliability is R,=1~ {1 — expf-(0.0005)2000}}? 1~ (.63212)° | =.7474 The mean time to failure for the system is « ti By placing three identical components in parallel. the system MTTF has been increased ® ___ Fora desired system MTTF of 4000 h, of elo vidual oT ested sistem 9 |; We now calculate the required MTTF i so00= (14342 7273 where 2s the failure rate for each component. Solving for A, we get 1.8333, az =0. 00046/h ‘Thus, the MTTF for each component would have to be \ 1 i MTTF 2 A oooows =717591Rams with Components in Series ang inP, ‘aralle| ~ systems often consist of co, ool e m| miity calculations are based on then nn that are both in seri iously disc series “ussed nents operate independently, and in parallel, ce ‘Oncepts, assuming that eco Find the reliability of the 114 gample ts are in seric eight-cor Bereoponen ies and some are jenecomponent Talons: Ras = 92, Raa = 90, Ras an Baal. The velabitiee a in Figure 11.6; Raa = 96, Ra, = 95, Reon she components 98, Ro, = 90, Ry, = 92. and 33 = 92, and Solution. We first find the reliabil sash Ao, As,and A, the reliabil vig Saeh subsystem. For the subays stem with compo- R 1-(1- Ra, Rag\(1-R, = [1 (92)(90)I~ Cane ray | OPK SOE - (88). 96) Saal, the reliability of the subsystem with components B;, B. 1» Bz, and By is Rp=1-(1~Rp,)(1- Rey) 1 (1 Res) =1-(1-.95)(1 -.90)(1- ie rt )(1 ~ 90)(1 - 92) Tesjstem reliability is given by Ry x Rox Ro, (.9733)(.9996)(.93) = 9048 Use of the Exponential Model fae time to failure for each compone moa system reliability and mean time to failure can tions using previously discussed procedures. ture rate and the mean time to failure for the eight “The failure rates (number of units per hour) for the = 0.0016, 4, = 0.0060. ‘nt can be assumed to be exponentially dis- be calculated under cer- Exar me 11-10: Find the system fail eee system shown in Figure 11-6. ents are as follows: Aa, = 0.0006, 2a; = 0.0045, Aas = 0.0035; Aas #y,=00060, 4p, = 0.0060, Acy Ps 0050. «i, SMlution. First we compute failure rates for the subsystems. We have 2 failure rate ini + a3) = 0.0051 for the Ai/A2 re rate is Oye, ‘subsystem: for the As/As subsystem. the fail »* 4a.) =00051. The mean time to failure for the Ay/A2/As/Aa subsystem 5 1 1 arr, = te ( 1+ 5) = 20808" Mi star i) The ce an ime to failure forthe subsystem consisting of components Rasa 1+5tg 1 1 1) sosss5m verre sa 23 By+ 524 CHAPTER 11 The system failure rate is b + 0.005 = 0.01167 294.118 — 305.; The mean time ‘o failure for the system is c MTTF, = 85.69 h Systems with Standby Components ~ y In a standby configuration, one or more parallel components wait to take over open. tion upon failure of the currently operating component. Here, it is assumed tha ™ only one component in the parallel configuration is operating at any given time. Be. (s cause of this, the system reliability is higher than for comparable systems with compo. nents in parallel. In parallel systems discussed previously, all components are assumed: to operate simultaneously. Figure 11-7 shows a standby system with a basic component and two standby components in parallel. Typically, a failure-sensing mechanism triggers the operation of a standby component when the currently operating com- ponent fails. r Use of the Exponential Model If the time to failure of the components is assumed to be exponential with failure rate A, the number of failures in a certain time 1 adheres to a Poisson distribution with Parameter /. Using the Poisson distribution introduced in Chapter 4, the probabiliy Of x failures in time 1 is given by aragy® re See (115) P(x) x! For a system that has a basic component in parallel with one standby component, the system will be operational at time 1, as long as there is no more than one failure. Thert- fore, the system reliability would be | a Rees ean, For a standby system with a basic component and two standby components (shown Figure 11-7), the system will be operational if th Jess than of equal to 2. The system reliability is is wumber of fellures jp es Ree era edt ae Basic component Standby * component Standby \ FIGURE 11-7 Standby system, component 2 \ ‘: | eral, if there are n components on standl i iby along with the basi | jot (+1) components inthe system] the system scale scomponent fora its | liability | Ro=e* ! (11.16) | spemean time to failure for such a system is MTTF="+ 1 { 2 (1417) mple 11-11: Find the reliability of the Standby system shown in Figure 11-7, | jysic component and two standby components, each having an exponential time iipaion, The failure rate for each component is 0.004/h and the period of operation is 306 5, + Whatis the mean time to failure? Ifthe three components are in parallel (not in a standby mode), | thesystem? What is the mean time to failure in this situation? Solution. The failure rate A for each component is 0,004/r. For 300 h of operation, the stem reliability is ! nner ( 14414 2) jomeamr| 2 =e cmc + 0.004(300) +. I 121 41.2+0.72} 879 what is the reliability of n+l_ 3 MTTF —_ =750h A 0.004 Ifthe system has all three components in parallel, the probability of failure of each com- + ponent is ew — ¢-21004(300) = 6988 The system reliability is found as (6988) = 659 The mean time to failure for this parallel system is 1 west sie 3(ss3) = 458.333 h fi at the syst ‘ability and MTTF of the standby and pars lel systems differ sig: pte thy the standby and paral y licantly tem rel 1c CURVES” 15 OPERATING CHARACTERIST!