28/04/2021

REVIEW OF THE CURRENT

LEAD AND ZINC SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK FOR 2021

JOAO JORGE
Director of Market Research and Statistics
International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)
27 April 2021

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 1

LME LEAD STOCKS AND PRICES

APR 2016 – APR 2021
US$ PER TONNE
000 Tonnes MONTHLY AVERAGE
500 2800

2600
450 2400

2200
400
2000

1800
350
1600

300 1400

1200

250 1000
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21
PRODUCERS + CONSUMERS + LME LME CASH SETTLEMENT PRICE
Source: ILZSG / LME
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 2

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SHFE LEAD STOCKS AND PRICES

APR 2016 – APR 2021
RMB PER TONNE
000 Tonnes
MONTHLY AVERAGE
380
22500
360
20000
340
17500
320
15000
300
12500
280
10000
260

240 7500

220 5000
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

PRODUCERS + CONSUMERS +SHFE SHFE CASH SETTLEMENT PRICE

Source: ILZSG / SHFE
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 3

WORLD LEAD DEMAND FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2021 Global 3.9% 2.0%
1.0%
China 0.3% 0.0%
-1.0%
Ex China 6.6%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
-6.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 4

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Resilience in Chinese Lead Usage in 2020

5500
‘000 tonnes

5000

4500

4000
Automobile Production
• 1st H 2020: -17%
3500
• Jan-Dec 2020: -2%
3000 • Jan-Feb 2021: +89%
2500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG/CAAM/Antaike
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 5

EUROPEAN AND US LEAD DEMAND

EUROPE UNITED STATES
2100 1800

2000
‘000 tonnes
‘000 tonnes
1900
1600
1800

1700
1400
1600

1500

1400 1200
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021f 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 6

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US AUTOMOTIVE BATTERIES SHIPMENT

Feb 2016 – Feb 2021
14000
Thousand units

10000

Replacement Original Equipment
6000
Feb‐16
Apr‐16

Aug‐16
Oct‐16
Dec‐16
Feb‐17
Apr‐17

Aug‐17
Oct‐17
Dec‐17
Feb‐18
Apr‐18

Aug‐18
Oct‐18
Dec‐18
Feb‐19
Apr‐19

Aug‐19
Oct‐19
Dec‐19
Feb‐20
Apr‐20

Aug‐20
Oct‐20
Dec‐20
Feb‐21
Jun‐16

Jun‐17

Jun‐18

Jun‐19

Jun‐20
Source: Battery Council International
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 7

PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS CHINA, EUROPE & USA

2020 & 1st Quarter 2021

2020 1st Q 2021

France -25.5% +21.1%
Germany -19.1% -6.4%
Italy -27.9% +28.7%
Poland -22.9% +9.5%
Spain -32.3% -14.9%
Sweden -18.0% +37.4%
UK -29.4% -12.0%

WESTERN EUROPE -24.5% +1.1%

USA -27.5% -4.6%
CHINA -6.0% +76% (Jan-Feb)
Source: ACEA / CAAM / U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 8

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WORLD LEAD MINE SUPPLY FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
2021 Global 5.1% 3.0%

China 2.4% 2.0%

1.0%
Ex China 7.1% 0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 9

LEAD MINE SUPPLY 2018-2021f

% annual change
20.0%
MEXICO

10.0%
PERU

0.0%
BOLIVIA

-10.0%
WORLD

-20.0%

-30.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021f Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 10

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LEAD MINE SUPPLY 2010-2021f

750
‘000 tonnes
AUSTRALIA

600 EUROPE

INDIA
450
MEXICO

300 PERU

USA
150

0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 11

WORLD LEAD METAL SUPPLY FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

4.0%

3.0%

2021 Global 3.3% 2.0%

1.0%
China 2.3% 0.0%
Ex China 4.1% -1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%

-5.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 12

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SECONDARY LEAD PLANT CAPACITY CHANGES 2006-2020

1250

Source: New Mine and Smelter Report 2021 - ILZSG

1000

750
Openings
500
Closures

250 Net Change

-250
000 TONNES METAL CONTENT

-500
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 13

WORLD LEAD METAL SUPPLY FORECAST 2020

Change 2020‐2021

China
India
Korea Rep
Belgium
Mexico
Germany
Poland
Italy
USA 000 Tonnes ‘000 tonnes

-65 -45 -25 -5 15 35 55 75 95 115

Source: ILZSG
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 14

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WORLD REFINED LEAD METAL

Deficits in 2017‐2018 and small surplus in 2019
Surpluses in 2020 and 2021
200.0
000 Tonnes

100.0

0.0

-100.0

Source: ILZSG

-200.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 15

LME ZINC STOCKS AND PRICES

APR 2016 – APR 2021 US$ PER TONNE
000 Tonnes MONTHLY AVERAGE
1100 4000

1000 3500

900
3000
800
2500
700
2000
600
1500
500

400 1000

300 500
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21

PRODUCERS + CONSUMERS + LME LME CASH SETTLEMENT PRICE

www.ilzsg.org Source: ILZSG / LME © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 16

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SHFE ZINC STOCKS AND PRICES

APR 2016 – APR 2021 RMB PER TONNE
000 Tonnes MONTHLY AVERAGE
1100 30000

1050

1000 25000

950

900 20000

850

800 15000

750

700 10000

650

600 5000
Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21
PRODUCERS + CONSUMERS +SHFE SHFE CASH SETTLEMENT PRICE
www.ilzsg.org Source: ILZSG / SHFE © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 17

WORLD ZINC DEMAND FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%
2021 Global 4.3%
2.0%
China 1.8% 1.0%

Ex China 6.8% 0.0%

-1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 18

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Chinese Zinc Usage: Remarkable Result in 2020

7000
‘000 tonnes

6500

6000
Coated Plate output
5500 • Jan-Dec 2020: +7%
5000 Air Conditioners output
4500
• Jan-Dec 2020: -8%
Refrigerators output
4000
• Jan-Dec 2020: +8%
3500
Investment in Property Industry
3000 • Jan-Dec 2020: +7%
2500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group Source: ILZSG / Antaike Source: ILZSG 19

Apparent Zinc Usage in the US Fell in 2020

but is Expected to Partially Recover in 2021
1100
‘000 tonnes
1000

900

800 The American Jobs Plan

700 • $2 trillion invenstment in infrastructure over the next decade
600 • Modernize 20,000 miles of highways, roads and main streets
500 • Repair over 10,000 bridges and renew airports
400 • Expand transit and rail
300 • Retrofit more than 2 million homes and commercial buldings
200 • Renew electric grid
100 • Investment in renewable energy generation and storage
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: www.whitehouse.gov Source: ILZSG
www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 20

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WORLD ZINC MINE SUPPLY FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

6.0%

4.0%
2021 Global 5.7%
2.0%
China 1.7%
Ex China 7.7% 0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

-6.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 21

ZINC MINE SUPPLY 2018-2021f

% annual change
30.0%

20.0% MEXICO

10.0% PERU

0.0% BOLIVIA

-10.0%
WORLD

-20.0%

-30.0%
2018 2019 2020 2021f Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 22

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ZINC MINE SUPPLY 2007-2021f

1800
‘000 tonnes

1600

AUSTRALIA
1400

PERU
1200

1000
EUROPE

800

600
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 23

ZINC MINE SUPPLY 2007-2021f

1000
‘000 tonnes
900
CANADA

800
BOLIVIA
700
INDIA
600

MEXICO
500

400 USA

300

200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 24

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WORLD ZINC METAL SUPPLY FORECAST

ILZSG FORECAST GLOBAL ANNUAL CHANGE

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%
2021 Global 3.1%
1.0%
China 2.8% 0.0%
Ex China 3.4% -1.0%

-2.0%

-3.0%

-4.0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f
Source: ILZSG

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 25

ZINC PLANTS CAPACITY CHANGES 2015-2020

600

Source: New Mine and Smelter Report 2021 - ILZSG

400

Openings
200

0 Closures

-200
Net Change

-400

000 TONNES METAL CONTENT

-600
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 26

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WORLD ZINC METAL SUPPLY FORECAST 2021

Change 2020‐2021

China
USA
Mexico
India
Peru
Japan
Italy
Australia
000 Tonnes ‘000 tonnes
Namibia
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group Source: ILZSG 27

WORLD REFINED ZINC METAL

Large deficits in 2017 and 2018 and tightness easing throughout 2019 but still in deficit
Large surpluses in 2020 and 2021 

600.0
000 Tonnes
400.0

200.0

0.0

-200.0

-400.0

-600.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021f

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group Source: ILZSG 28

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 28/04/2021

REVIEW OF THE CURRENT

LEAD AND ZINC SITUATION
AND OUTLOOK FOR 2021

JOAO JORGE
Director of Market Research and Statistics
International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG)
27 April 2021

www.ilzsg.org © International Lead and Zinc Study Group 29

15