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asizo2t ‘OPEC : The destabilzing impact of COVID-18 Orgarization of the Petroleum exporting Countice The destabilizing impact of COVID-19 ‘OPEC Bulletin Commentary February-March 2020 ‘The dramatic spread of the coronavirus, from a single case in China to a global pandemic in less than three months, has forced governments to take drastic measures to protect public health, Besides the toll this new strain of coronavirus (COVID-19) has taken on people, it has also dented economic growth prospects and upended the oil market. The latter started the New ‘Year on a positive note, supported by additional production adjustments put into place by OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ for the frst quarter of 20201 “There is no doubt that inthe last four weeks all the indices have deteriorated, be it in the ‘economy, stocks, equities, financial instruments, metals, commodities and of course oil’ Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, told journalists in early March Yet the economic fallout of COVID-19 should come as no surprise. Well before this outbreak, researchers were waming that infectious disease epidemics pose a growing threat to public health and by extension, the global economy. The consensus of several revealing studies is that the world is ill prepared to cope, and this seems to be borne out by the current pandemic. Other major outbreaks so far this century include the severe acute respiratory syndrome, oF SARS (2002-03); the dovastating Ebola virus in West Africa (2014-16); the Zika virus in Latin ‘America, which neatly led to the postponement of the 2016 Rio Olympics; and a recent Ebola virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Furthermore, pandemic influenza alone is estimated to cost $670 billion in premature deaths and lost income potential every year. ‘A recent study published by the Journal of infectious Diseases, which used the West Attica Ebola virus as a reference case, suggests that epidemics may have a far deeper economic impact than previously thought, “The devastation of infectious disease outbreaks spreads much beyond the individuals directly infected,” it says. “In today's interconnected world, ‘economies and humans are linked far beyond their borders, which significantly increases the impact of any disease outbreak.’ A similar study published in the respected British medical journal the Lancet noted that “the ‘most authoritative analyses ofthe risks to economic growth and stability shows barely any reference to infectious diseases.” Weighing in on the disease threat, the World Economic Forum's (WEF) 2020 Global Risk Report warns that the world’s “collective vulnerabilty to the societal and economic impacts of infectious disease crises appears to be increasing.” I recommends more public-private partnerships and trust-based relationships to improve preparedness and minimize the ‘economic shocks when epidemics strike Significantly, the World Health Organization (WHO) has also expressed concem about COVID-19's broad economic impact. Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General, noted that the pandemic “is not just a public health crisis, itis acris's that will touch very sector Major outbreaks like COVID-19 are especially destabilizing because they are unpredictable, ‘dangerous and disruptive. While the priority has to be on public health, itis not too early to begin thinking about ways to mitigate such disruptions going forward. In fact, in exceptional times tke this, regular dialogue, cooperation and trusted relationships grow in value, To its enormous credit, OPEC offers a good model. The Organization's focus on collaboration,

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