THE CAMPOLO COLLEGE OF GRADUATE AND PROFESSIONAL STUDIES

AT EASTERN UNIVERSITY

Promoting the Integration of Faith, Reason, and Justice

A POLICY FRAMEWORK REVIEW

Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change in Malawi

By

WILLIE MPASUKA

A DIRECTED THESIS FOR MASTER OF ARTS DEGREE IN INTERNATIONAL

DEVELOPMENT

DECEMBER 13, 2013

 ABSTRACT

Many developing nations are projected to face calamitous events related to climate
change if the greenhouse gas theory, which claims that gases being emitted into the atmosphere
by people’s activities are causing it, proves right. This study explores the environmental policy
of Malawi in terms of adaptation and mitigation of the climate change effects and the role that
these policies play in dealing with the agenda of climate change as a whole. To this end, the
study reviews the history of global climate change, proponents and opponents’ arguments,
underlying scientific theories behind the claims, scenarios of the claimed effects, and the role and
disconnect of policy to the climate change agenda. The analysis of the available data hints at the
presence of climate change, which has been seen through the global temperature increase and its
effects such as floods and droughts in both developing and developed nations in the following
sectors: health, agriculture, energy, water, and manufacturing industry.
These effects are particularly devastating in developing nations and are held as strong
indicators, almost as the proof, of climate change in the absence of scientific studies in these
countries that would provide empirical evidence. In Malawi, the agriculture, health, water
resources, and energy sectors are encountering a drop in the expected annual food production
output, rising occurrences of diseases and deaths, declining availability of fish, and increased
cases of power outages respectively. The study recognizes the aforementioned challenges as
dangers associated with climate change effects, but it pinpoints the country’s socioeconomic and
political policies as compounding factors. In so doing, this study draws two key conclusions: 1).
An integrated approach, which is the combination of environmental and socioeconomic aspects
to dealing with climate change, may provide new opportunities to tackle Malawi’s
socioeconomic and political challenges with a new impetus. 2). Meteorological departments and
sectors in developing countries should be improved to offer the most accurate picture of the
projected changes in climate for this is vital to be able to prevent and prepare a response to the
projected short or long term effects of climate related disasters.

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS

List of Figures
1. Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Rise Correlates …. 14
2. Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Dissociates........... 15
3. Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Rise Correlates.… 19
4. Malawi’s Mean Temperature Rise ………………………………………… 21
5. The Policy Work Triangle ………………………………………………….. 61
6. Bardach’s Eight Fold Policy Analysis Model ……………………………… 63
7. Bardach’s Outcome Matrix ………………………………………………… 74

CHAPTER ONE: Introductory Chapter

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 6
Research Questions ……………………………………………………………… 6
Methodology …………………………………………………………………….. 6
Literature Analysis ………………………………………………………………. 7
Study’s Organization …………………………………………………………….. 7

CHAPTER TWO: The History and Claims of Climate Change

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 8
Overview of Concepts …………………………………………………… 8
The History of Climate Change …………………………………………………. 9
Enlightenment Age ………………………………………………………. 9
Warm Adherents ………………………………………………… 10
Constant Adherents ……………………………………………… 10
Industrial Revolution Age ……………………………………………….. 11
Climate Change Proponents ……………………………………... 11
Climate Change Opponents ……………………………………… 12
The Present Era ………………………………………………………….. 12
Pro – Climate Change View …………………………………….. 13
Anti – Climate Change View …………………………………… 14
Settlements of the Arguments …………………………………………………… 16
Theories and the Warmth ……………………………………………………….. 16
Terrestrial Temperatures ………………………………………………… 17
Greenhouse Gases ……………………………………………………….. 17
Climate Sensitivity ………………………………………………………. 17
Global Temperatures …………………………………………………….. 18
Carbon Cycle ……………………………………………………………. 18
Evidence of the warmth …………………………………………………………. 19
Malawi in Perspective …………………………………………………………… 20
Malawi and Climate Change……………………………………………………… 20
Conclusion ………………………………………………………………………. 22

CHAPTER THREE: Global Effects of Climate Change

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 23

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 Ecosystems ……………………………………………………………………… 23
Loss of Vegetation ……………………………………………………… 23
Movement of Animals ………………………………………………… 24
Extinction of Animals …………………………………………………… 24
Birds’ Migration ………………………………………………………… 25
Food Security …………………………………………………………………… 25
Food Availability ……………………………………………………….. 26
Food Allocation ………………………………………………………… 27
Food Utilization ………………………………………………………… 27
Coastal and Low-Lying Locations ……………………………………………… 27
The Loss of Human Life ………………………………………………… 28
The Loss of Business Investments ……………………………………… 28
The Strain on Governments’ Budgets …………………………………… 28
Industries ………………………………………………………………………… 28
Health …………………………………………………………………………… 29
Immediate Physical Health Challenges ………………………………… 29
Viral and Bacterial Diseases …………………………………………… 30
Cardiovascular Health Challenges ……………………………………… 30
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………...……… 31

CHAPTER 4: Strategies and Approaches to Climate Change

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 32
Adaptation Practices ……………………………………………………………… 32
Philippines ……………………………………………………………… 33
Mexico …………………………………………………………………… 35
Mitigation Practices ……………………………………………………………… 37
Mexico …………………………………………………………………… 37
Chile ……………………………………………………………………… 38

CHAPTER 5: Developing Nations and Climate Change

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 41
Agriculture ……………………………………………………………………… 41
Food Crop Prices ………………………………………………… 43
Food Production ………………………………………………… 43
Food Consumption ……………………………………………… 44
Health
Rising Rate of Infectious Diseases …………..………………….. 45
Respiratory Diseases …………………………………………….. 46
Cases of Under-nutrition…………………………………………… 46
Water
Reduction in Run-off …………………………………………… 47
Water Quality …………………………………………………… 47
Energy
Ghana …………………………………………………………… 48
Ethiopia ………………………………………………………… 48
Uganda ………………………………………………………… 49

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 Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 49

CHAPTER 6: Climate Change in Malawi

Introduction …………………………………………………………………… 50
Malawi’s Economic Situation ………………………………………………… 50
Malawi’s Economic Sectors ………………………………………………… 51
Effects of Climate Change and Variability …………………………………… 52
Agriculture ……………………………………………………………… 52
Health …………………………………………………………………… 55
Water Resources ………………………………………………………… 57
Energy …………………………………………………………………… 58
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 59

CHAPTER 7: Malawi’s Policy Environment Analysis

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 61
Understanding Policy …………………………………………………………… 61
Public Policy …………………………………………………………………… 61
Classifications of Policy Instruments …………………………………………... 62
Policy Framework Review for Climate Change ………………………………… 62

CHAPTER 8: Malawi’s Approaches and Strategies

Introduction ……………………………………………………………………… 77
Understanding Terms …………………………………………………… 77
Malawi’s Approach ……………………………………………………………… 77
Malawi’s Strategy ……………………………………………………………… 78
The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) ……………… 80
Sweet Fleshed Orange Potatoes ………………………………… 80
Agroforestry and Food Security Programme (AFSP) …………… 80
Forest Co-Management and Bee-Keeping ……………………… 81
Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………… 82

CHAPTER 9: Conclusion and Recommendations

Conclusions ……………………………………………………………………… 83
The Claims, Blames and Evidence ……………………………………… 83
The Global Policies ……………………………………………………… 83
Malawi’s Policies ………………………………………………………... 84
Recommendations ……………………………………………………………….. 84
Gaps for Future Research ………………………………………………………… 85
Study’s Limitations ……………………………………………………………… 85
References ……………………………………………………………………… 86

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 CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION
The anthropogenic climate change agenda has existed for a number of centuries, from the
Enlightenment era up to the present times, but significant discussions have grown popular since
the establishment of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 by the United
Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization. The IPCC,
based on its scientific findings, has concluded that climate is changing and people’s activities are
causing the change (WMO).1 While the IPCC firmly holds to and warns that changes in climate
are making the earth warmer, it also recognizes that in some places the temperatures are getting
colder, even as the overall temperature of the earth is rising (IPCC, 1991). Skepticism, backed
with scientific findings, of this strong assertion has always existed, to the point that parallel
institutions and organizations have been set up to challenge the claims championed by the IPCC
(Nature, 2010a).
Despite resistance, the IPCC instituted global policies under the Kyoto Protocol and the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UFCCC) to legally bind its parties
(countries) worldwide to engage in practices that should prevent climate change or protect from
its harms. These global policies have led individual countries to formulate their own policies in
dealing with this phenomenon. The study seeks to appreciate the role of policy in reaction to the
climate change agenda by drawing links between the situation of climate change in Malawi and
the available climate – related policies that regulate the “claimed change” and its effects. My
research is guided by the following two main questions and the subsequent sub – questions.

Research Questions
1. How does the present climatic situation resonate with the alleged anthropogenic climate
change claims?
a) What empirical evidence subscribes or unsubscribes to the change in climate?
b) What empirical evidence subscribes or unsubscribes to change being caused by humans?
c) What cases display the reality of anthropogenic climate change claims?
d) How are individual countries in the world reacting to the reality of climate change?
e) Is there any relationship between a country's policies and the anthropogenic climate
change claims its effects?

2. How does Malawi's current policy environment describe the country's adaptation and
mitigation ability towards climate change effects?
a) What is the current state of the policy environment in Malawi?
b) How are adaptation mechanisms set in relation to climate change?
c) What are the mitigation strategies that are in place to reduce if any the danger of climate
change?

Methodology
Secondary data provides the basis for this study. In addressing the research questions, the
study used different sources of literature such as peer-reviewed journal articles, books, press
reports, various countries’ notes on climate change issues and internet based materials. These
sources of literature were accessed through the physical library (Eastern University), school

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http://ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml#.Uus2RfldWSo

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monitored online databases such as EBSCOhost, Sage Premier, eBrary, Jstor, ProQuest, and
ebook collection of EBSCOHost (formally known as Net Library). Apart from these library
interfaces, the research also used free search engines such as Google Scholar, and Google Books.

Literature Analysis
All the chapters engage in some analysis. Heavy analysis, however, is covered in chapters
Two, Four, Six, Seven and Nine. Chapter Two addresses the argument of the change in climate
and the cause of the change. Chapter Four provides an analysis of the role of policies in
Philippines, Mexico and Chile. Chapter Six analyzes the economy of Malawi while Chapter
Seven scrutinizes policies regulating the adaptation and mitigation practices. The last chapter,
Nine, synthesizes the findings and gives a number of recommendations.

Study’s Organization
The study has nine chapters addressing the questions stated above. Chapter 2 addresses
the current argument on climate change and the cause of the change. Chapter 3 records the
claimed effects of climate change citing examples from countries across the globe. Chapter 4
details the various responses of the effects of climate change by different countries with a focus
on adaptation and mitigation. The chapter continues to make a link between these responses and
the situation of the policy environment. Chapter 5 explores the effects of climate change faced by
developing nations, and transitions into Chapter 6 where the specific effects on Malawi are
explored by different economic sectors as well. An overview of Malawi’s economy is presented
in Chapter 7, as well as an analysis of its policies in relation to climate change using Bardach’s
Eight Fold Policy Analysis tool. Chapter 8 reviews the current adaptation and mitigation
practices being exercised in Malawi and the last chapter, Chapter 9, draws conclusions, suggests
some recommendations, and identifies research gaps.

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 CHAPTER TWO

THE HISTORY AND CLAIMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION
Climate change, the variation in average long–term trends in weather, is and has been a
controversial concern in politics, economics, environment, health and other sectors. The current
proposed scientific explanation of the concept of climate change is that its origin lays in the
energy that humans use, which comes from the burning of fossil fuels. This activity produces
gas in form of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) that goes into the atmosphere and the concentration of
these gases, called greenhouse gases (GHG), prevents heat from leaving the Earth. This
concentration of gases consequently leads to a much warmer climate since it traps the heat in the
atmosphere (Dyson 2006).
The change in climate threatens people's livelihoods and developing nations are
experiencing the worst. Currently, there is no easy way identified as a solution to the present and
prospective tragedies climate change may continue to cause. Since the preliminary observation
of its existence, however, there has been phenomenal progress towards its management. This
paper seeks to explore the reality of climate change, and define the prevention and response to its
existence in Malawi by scrutinizing the available policies in light of mitigation and adaptation
practices as possible solutions. This chapter presents the rich history of the ideas and opinions of
climate change, relevant concepts, and its connection to development with a focus on Malawi.

OVERVIEW OF CONCEPTS
An explanation of some of the foundational concepts such as climate, global warming,
climate change, greenhouse gases, policy, governance, change, mitigation and adaptation may
help to attain a better grasp of all that involves climate change. First, in order to better
understand the meaning of climate change, one needs to understand the definition of climate.
Climate is the average weather over a duration of time of a particular region. It can be a few
months, seasons, or a few years (Houghton 2000). Climate change, then, is the variation in long
term trends in climate on average and it includes the change to the average temperatures and
precipitation. Nature or humans can effect these changes. Second, the slow rising of the earth's
average surface temperature, which some believe is at least partly caused by humans, is referred
to as global warming (Downie et. al 2009). Third, in many quarters, climate change has been
referred to as global warming and the vice versa (Bulkeley & Betsill, 2003). The current
technical argument of the existence or inexistence of climate change, however, identifies these
terms as different. In those arguments, for example, global warming leads to climate change
(Nhamo, 2012). Fourth, central to the argument of climate change is the existence of greenhouse
gases (GHG), a group of gases in the atmosphere such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane
and ozone. They have absorptive properties when heat passes through them and this helps to
regulate the earth’s temperature, so if their concentration is altered, then the temperature of
regulation of the planet is also disturbed. Human activities are said to have produced substantial
amount of these gases and have increased their concentration in the atmosphere (Hulme, 2005).
The crucial element to preventing and dealing with the effects of climate change is to
have better environmental policies, and one way to do this is for countries to come together and
be part of the global warming policy (Gaughen 2005). A “policy,” fifth, is defined as a set of
techniques of governance by which the country is guided. Sixth, “governance” describes the

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means that the country employs to make sure the set policies are being followed. The definition
of these two terms, policy and governance, connotes that policy exists to achieve some set goals;
in other words, policy instruments are the means to achieve the ends (Barh 2010).
Proper environmental policies cannot do the work themselves: they need to be put into
action to effect change. “Change,” seventh, in this case means avoiding emissions of greenhouse
gases into the atmosphere and also devising ways to survive effects of climate change. In the
end, it is hoped that lifestyles will change reflecting the awareness of climate change and thereby
halt the rising temperatures. These policy efforts and activities set to deal with climate change
fall into two categories: mitigation and adaptation. “Mitigation,” eighth, refers to the way in
which communities or countries strategize measures to minimize the greenhouse gas emissions
(Nhamo, 2012). “Adaptation,” ninth, is understood as the organic or human structure's alteration
as a mechanism of responding to the present or anticipated climate stimuli or their results that
regulates damage or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). The concern for adaptation
and mitigation touches the reality of development because the wellbeing of people's lives is
affected by issues to do with policies - as defined above. Since this discussion centers on the
term “change,” it thus calls for the need to contrast two periods: the past and the present so as to
validate the claims of the change in climate.

THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

This section reviews the history of climate change from the Enlightenment age to the
present time. Though evidence for the existence of climate change dates back before this age, I
find it less important to go beyond the Enlightenment age. The main reason is that there were
not many scientific instruments back then to provide the empirical evidence tracking change in
climate. Besides that, picking up the discussion from the Enlightenment era still provides a
better transition from when climate change had only qualitative data to the present time when
there is quantitative evidence to prove or disapprove its existence. Under this section, therefore,
I have covered the historical background of climate change in the Enlightenment and industrial
revolution ages. The section on climate change theories explores more the history after these
periods. In addition to the historical discourse, proponents and opponents' arguments are also
explored.

The Enlightenment Age

Presented here are two differing observations of climate change that existed before and
around the Enlightenment age (1701 - 1800). Enlightenment thinkers, most notably Charles-
Louis de Secondat, Baron de La Brède et de Montesquieu, David Hulme, and Abbé Jean-
Baptiste Dubos dominated the discussion of climate change in the period of 1750 to 1800.
Montesquieu talked of working in very cold weather in his childhood, colder than when he was
an adult; Hume asserted climate changes in America with no empirical evidence; and Du Bos
argued that the deforestation and the increased cultivation that was happening caused the change
in climate in his time. He further linked this to the transformation of cultures. Du Bos firmly
believed that as climate was changing it also changed the quality of the air. He argued that as air
mixes with our blood through respiration, it transforms the quality of our blood and consequently
affects how the brain processes and, therefore, leads to the new ways of how humans behave. To
this effect, he believed that as more people are exposed to such kind of an air in a particular
location, their cultures transform (Hulme, 2009).

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 Views of these thinkers sounded convincing to the population in their days because of
their influential positions in the society. Subtly, these scholars created the foundation for climate
change argument. They argued that climate was changing but they did not provide empirical
evidence to affirm their arguments (Fleming, 2005). Corresponding to these views that climate
was changing, two parties existed in this Enlightenment age: those who thought climate was
turning warm and the contrarians who argued that nothing was changing and that the variations
were due to natural swings of warm and cold weather.

Warm adherents
This section starts by reviewing the arguments of those who thought the climate was
getting warmer. Emphasis should be made here that most of the assertions of climate change in
this era were gleaned from observation without empirical evidence. The ones who argued that
the climate was getting warmer based their opinions on some irregular natural climatic events
such as increased or decreased incidences of thunder, coldness, and snow. Those of the opposite
opinion described the inconsistency of these occurrences as natural patterns.
In the Enlightenment period, it was asserted that in the summer of 1716 in France, Paris,
there were only two claps of thunder heard but in the summer of 1717, it thundered more than
thirty times (Koller, 1937). Also, in 1750, it was noticed that Europe and the Mediterranean
areas were warmer than in their ancient times. Stories were told about the Tiber River freezing
in the past but not freezing that year. Before this year (1750), the winter was so cold and harsh
that it destroyed trees. The year prior to 1750, the ground had a thick layer of snow for at least
forty days but in this year, it lasted less (Green & Grose, 1875). Finally, in 1769, Edward
Anthill, an attorney and merchant, wrote a letter to the American Philosophical Society on the
change in climate. He argued that the lightness of the heat taking place in his time reflected the
moderate weather that was taking place at the passing of every year as the land has been opened,
cleared, and even drained. He implied that it was warmer than before, which might lead to
perfect weather for the making of wine (Fleming, 1996).

Constant adherents
Contrary to the warm adherents, constant adherents argued that the irregularity of
climatic events was just the natural patterns and it did not define a change in climate. This
proposition also was based on raw memory of the past. In the year 1588, for example, a colonial
promoter praised the weather of Virginia in all seasons as fair and a pleasant place to live. He
narrated how 104 colonialists survived when the ships' supplies run out by eating wild food, and
only 4 feeble people died (Harriot, 1951). In 1607 however, the year of extreme cold winter, 73
people from the group of the initial 104 colonialists were killed by diseases and deprivation
(Stratchey, 1953). The two incidences (1588 & 1607) show that earlier climate was warmer and
later on colder. In 1750, an article in the Gentleman's Magazine refuted the proposition that the
climate was getting warmer. If it were, argued the author, the warmth would have permitted
people to start keeping animals like camels and grow new crops like dates or figs because these
kinds of animals and crops do well in warmer temperatures. Apparently, however, these changes
were not seen (Eisenstaedt, 1990). These arguments, in summary, were geared towards defeating
the proposition that the climate was getting warm, attributing any warming, rather, to different
natural patterns of weather.
It would be too early at this point to make a conclusion as to who was correct concerning
the scientific explanation of this subject. The next phase of the discussion centers on the first

10
and second industrial revolution eras (1750 to 1850; and 1860 to 1914) when more and different
scientific tools were being created and improved. These tools were influential in helping to either
support or refute the proposition of climate change.

The Industrial Revolution age

The Enlightenment era is known as having a series of stories claiming the existence of
climate change without recorded quantitative data. One contributing factor to this was the late
emergence of scientific and meteorological systems that record such climatic data. The industrial
era, however, started to avail recorded quantitative data to empirically show the change in
climate or not. The period witnessed the invention of several advanced scientific instruments and
meteorological sites. It is suggested that the quest of establishing firm claims of climate change
in the Enlightenment age created a foundation for the availability of scientific instruments in the
industrial era (Pearson & Foxon, 2012).
The Industrial Revolution had two phases; the first one was from 1750 to 1850 in Britain
and the second was from 1860 to 1914 where it also spread to Germany, US and Western
Europe. This period and after was marked by many social and economic changes, including a
change to the industrial ways of production. Alongside these changed ways of production,
several scientific instruments that had the ability to record climatic changes were invented. First,
in 1819 at an army department, a scientific and meteorological system was created. Second,
telegraphic experiments started in the 1850s, storm warning systems came in after the year 1860
and finally the International Bulletin of observations appeared in 1870s (Fleming, 1996). With
these developments, quantitative data for climate change evidence started to be available around
this period, although the two opposing views still existed just like in the Enlightenment era. The
contention was the same: a claim of climate change linked to humans as the cause and the denial
attributed to natural seasons of warm and cold weather. Each of the groups had cases to support
their viewpoints as highlighted below.

Climate change proponents

Climate change propositions were advanced by various scientists and climatologists.
Among the many, the following were noted for their arguments for climate change and their
pointing to humans as the factor to blame: Hugh Williamson with his theory of evaporation,
Samuel Williams with his thermometer to back up his position and Thomas Jefferson with his
argument based on the scientific records in his “Weather Memorandum Book” (Fleming, 1996).
Williamson’s theory was that increased evaporation in summer or autumn moderated the
cold of the winter. This meant that the increased evaporation caused by the clearing of the land
led to less cold winters. Through experiments, he claimed that trees produce one third more
vapor than the surface of the same area. These vapors freeze into heavier ice and then rain falls
making the area much colder. He claimed, therefore, that the clearing of the trees by humans
resulted in less rainfall, which ended up leading to warmer climates. In 1811, consistent with his
theory, he observed that snow accumulation in New England was less than half of what was
accumulated five decades earlier. Later on, he observed that the Delaware River had stopped
freezing compared to earlier times. In addition, he argued that as the surface of the country is
exposed, the amount of reflected heat increases; this turns the air warm and changes the climate
of the area (Jefferson, 1979).
The second proponent of climate change as caused by humans was Samuel Williams. He
buried thermometers in the soil and detected a substantial increase in soil temperature after the

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clearing of the land. Williams’ argument was that the increased temperature of soil made the
earth and air warmer and, therefore, resulted in an increase in the mean warm temperature of the
area (Williamson, S., 1794). He linked long warm temperatures to deforestation, backed up by
historical literature.
Finally, Thomas Jefferson in 1787 stood firm to argue for the change in climate and
linked it to humans as well. What lent credibility to his assertions was the "Weather
Memorandum Book" that showed temperature records which he took twice every day. His
records, though the instruments were not as sophisticated, showed a rise in temperature attributed
to the man's activity where the clearing of the land exposed the area to increased warm
temperatures (Fleming, 1787).

Climate change opponents

Climate change propositions faced strong rebuttals from Alexander von Humboldt, Lorin
Blodget and Elias Loomis. In refuting these claims, Humboldt studied a cluster of thermometric
military observations, Lorin Blodget used thermometric and precipitation records and Loomis
and his assistant carried out a study of climate. Just like the proponents of the change in climate,
these scholars also used scientific data to back up their claims.
Firstly, Humboldt examined a cluster of thermometric observations from several military
stations and believed that this collection of records by United States Army Medical Department
were more exact than what had been preached by those who thought the earth was getting
warmer. His data from Philadelphia contained observations from 1771 to 1824, and showed that
on average, there was a yearly temperature increase of 2.7° F but he attributed this rise to town
establishments, population growth, and steam-engines. Also at Salem in Massachusetts,
observations showed that the area became colder by 4°F for a period of thirty-three years even
though the land was cleared (Humboldt, 1850).
Secondly, in 1857, Blodget using thermometric and precipitation records from the
Smithsonian Institution and the Army Medical Department, and claimed that climates were not
changeable and should not be assumed otherwise. He disputed those who argued that the
clearing of vegetation made climate warmer; instead, he explained that vegetation reacts to what
the climate does, meaning that low vegetation and high rainfall might mean more vegetation. To
ascertain the change in climate, actual scientific data should clearly show the increase and this is
the reason he showed that 80 years of available thermometric records in the US derived no
patterns that could be explained by cities' expansion and other causes (Blodget, 1857).
Thirdly, Loomis, a meteorologist at Yale, and his assistant, carried out a study of climate
change using data collected for the town of New Haven from 1779 to 1865. The records used for
the study were compiled by more than twenty different observers who worked independently.
After a careful analysis of the available data, they concluded that over those 86 years there was
no substantial change in New Haven in the mean annual temperature (Loomis, 1866).

The Present Era

The present era of the arguments on climate change, ranges from the end of the second
industrial era (1914) to the present. In this period, even amidst plenty of advanced scientific
instruments and high quality quantitative data, the two opposing groups still exist. Those who
claim that there is climate change continue to link this change to humans as the cause and those
opposing it still maintain that what is defined as climate change is just the natural patterns of
warm and cold weather. Those proposing climate change tend to affiliate with one collective

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group called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), composed of
representatives chosen by governments and scientific organizations such as the World
Meteorological Organization.2 It was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Generally, the IPCC exists to assess the scientific observations of human induced climate
change, its impacts, how to adapt to the effects and mitigate its further occurrences.3 Those who
oppose the existence of climate change cluster together into what are identified as the Front
Groups, e.g. the Global Climate Coalition (GCC), Conservative Think Tanks (CTT) e.g.
Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) and financers such as the Koch and Scaife
foundations (Grandia, 2009; Greenpeace, 2010 and Marshey 2010).

Pro-Climate Change View

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is comprised of
representatives from different governments and scientific organizations, is the main body that is
given the responsibility of observing the scientific human induced climate change occurrences.
Through its successive reports from 1991, it has argued that climate is changing and humans are
responsible for the change.
Many studies carried out by the body establish firm evidence that climate is changing.
Even further, this change is attributed to the activities of man. With the growing pursuit of
economic gains since the industrial revolution, human beings through various industrial and
manufacturing activities produce gases that emit into the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). The climate
change argument can be summed up in four simple elements: the emitting of light and other
radiation by the sun, the absorption of the light and radiation by the earth, the radiation of the
same heat out of the earth’s atmosphere and the hindrance of that outward radiation by the gases.
In short, the sun emits light and other radiation into the earth, which keeps it warm. The earth
absorbs them and is supposed to radiate the heat back out of its atmosphere. But, the presence of
the gases coming from the activities of man forms a blanket within the atmosphere and blocks
these radiations from leaving atmosphere. This situation results in the increased temperature and
consequently, the change of the overall climate (Ian Lowe, 2007).
Consistent with their argument of the presence of gases in the atmosphere as the causes
of climate change, the IPCC has shown that since the industrial revolution, known to have raised
the emission of gases into the atmosphere, there has been an increase in the global temperature.
The increase of carbon dioxide, one of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, correlates with
the rise in temperature, as a result of its high concentration trapping the sun radiation and
preventing it from to getting out of the earth. Subsequently, the retention of this heat causes the
temperature of the earth to rise, as shown in figure 1 (IPCC, 2013).

2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
3
http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/

13
Figure 1: Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Rise Correlates

Adapted from Richard P. Horwitz' (2004)

Anti-Climate Change View

Just like the pro-climate change advocates, the anti-climate change proponents have been
active in using scientific evidence to oppose the former. Their ability to convey substantial
resistance to the climate change proposition is seen in the following four strengths: their alliance
with actors holding the same position, the availability of funds to support scientific studies, the
political position to speak against climate change especially in the United States and their
scientific grounded arguments, as discussed further below.
First, in 1989, the Global Climate Coalition (GCC) was created to oppose the findings of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). GCC was joined and supported by
conservative think tanks such as CFACT. In addition, Exxon Mobil, Texaco, BP, Chrysler, Ford
and GM also gave their support (Grandia, 2009; Greenpeace 2010 and Marshey, 2010).
Second, the whole movement was funded by financiers with a vested interest in this, like
Richard Mellon Scaife, who drew finances from his family’s foundation to support the work of
CFACT that carried views opposing climate change. It is alleged that this was done to protect the
family’s fortune in oil business which is one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases and
which stands to lose economically if climate change arguments win the day (Grandia, 2009;
Greenpeace 2010 and Marshey, 2010).
Third, politically, the GCC was very active in opposing the United States of America
government's consent to Kyoto Protocol, the legal framework that commits industrialized
countries to meeting their responsibility of reducing the GHG emissions through changes to their
manufacturing practices. The Protocol was adopted in 1997 in Japan.4
Fourth, they collectively had the following six arguments refuting climate change: first,
they argued that the current scientific instruments and the meteorological system cannot project
weather; therefore, to claim of the existence of climate change is illogical (Oreskes & Conway,
2010). Second, water vapor has identical absorptive qualities to other greenhouse gases e.g.
carbon dioxide and ozone. The question they have is that if we care less about water vapor that
technically should bring the same effect as carbon dioxide and ozone, why should we be worried

4
http://unfccc.int/files/press/backgrounders/application/pdf/fact_sheet_the_kyoto_protocol.pdf

14
about other greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere? Third, climate change models
that ascertain the way the earth gets warm are defective and, therefore, there is too much
subjectivity in their projections to make them valid (Carr et al, 2007). Fourth, peer-reviewed and
refereed journals that propose the existence of climate change report scientific findings that did
not actually happen, such as the acknowledged mistake by the IPCC when it reported that
Himalayan glaciers were melting that was retracted in its fourth report in 2007 (Nature 2010a,
2010b; Sills 2010); this took away the confidence and credibility of IPCC in its successive
reports on human induced climate change. In addition, these opponents claim that IPCC
fabricated results of at least some of their findings, presenting intercepted emails they allege
show that one study that was being carried out at East Anglia used tricks to arrive at the
conclusion that the climate was changing, a case that was dubbed, “climategate.”5 Fifth, they
argue that the rise in temperature noted by the pro climate group is caused by urbanization and
not the general emissions of greenhouse gases. Since 1910, they claim, California counties that
had over 1 million residents experienced the increase in temperature while those with a
population between 100,000 and 1 million had a mild warming experience of 10F and counties
that had less than 100,000 people witnessed a warming of 0 degrees. Sixth, they claim that the
change in climate is not caused by the rising of carbon dioxide. They admit that there is high
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere but argue that it is not making the temperature
rise. In fact, they claim, temperature is decreasing, as shown in figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Dissociates

Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, NASA GISS 6

5
http://mediamatters.org/research/2009/12/01/climategate-exposed-conservative-media-distort/157590. It is
important to note that the opponents themselves were accused of fabricating this story (Fang, 2009).
6
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

15
 SETTLEMENT OF THE ARGUMENTS
Considering these sets of arguments over the periods of the Enlightenment, industrial
revolution and the present era, it appears that those of the view that the climate is changing have
the stronger evidence. The present era evidences of the change in climate provide a convincing
point showing that the rise of gases in the atmosphere correlates with the rising temperatures
which, ultimately, changes the climate. Even though the anti-climate change group has a
different scenario of the correlation between the concentration of CO2 and temperature, the
discussion below, shows why the former’s case is more convincing than the latter. Arguments
proposed by the anti-climate group contain some flaws and this section addresses each one of
them.
Firstly, their claim that there is uncertainty in projecting the climate does not deny that
the past and the present years have experienced warmer years than before. Secondly, their
argument that water vapor is one of the most dangerous greenhouse gases being emitting into the
atmosphere, while true, does not reduce the impact of CO2 which causes much of the warmth
and has been emitted in large amount. In fact, water vapor is the result of the increased warmth
coming from the changed climate through evapotranspiration. Thirdly, their questioning of the
viability of the climate models that are predicting warmer scenarios does not take into account
that the change in climate is not only observed by models, it is a lived experience and that
increased gases in the atmosphere and increased temperatures are experienced now. Fourth, on
the issue of “climategate,” it was discovered that most of the statements they picked from those
emails were taken out of context. For instance, the word ‘trick’ was used to imply a short–cut or
a new way of doing something much simpler than before but they misinterpreted it to mean
trickery.7
Fifth, their position on urbanization is refuted by the study that was done from 1989 to
1991 which screened 289 stations in 40 clusters from the urban and rural data. It was found that
there was no statistically significant impact of urbanization in the annual temperatures. The write
– up of the same study also contested that urbanization cannot be the sole reason of the change in
climate because meteorological observations may not necessarily be carried out in industrial
regions, therefore, to argue that the warmth is explained by industrial activities and the growth of
cities and towns, would be an inaccurate conclusion.
Sixth, their fifth proposition, which argues that the noted rise in temperature is caused by
urbanization, defeats their sixth argument, which argues that carbon dioxide, is rising but
temperature is decreasing. If the noted warmth is perpetrated by urbanization, it should correlate
with the growth of cities and towns which should be the case from the period between 2002 and
2007. But, figure 2 shows a contrary trend displaying a decline in temperature, though, logically
urbanization should grow from 2002 to 2007 and therefore, influence the increase in
temperature. Ironically, the more urbanized parts of the world are getting, the average
temperature is declining according to their theory, and this does not make sense. In addition, the
timeframe depicted in fig. 2, which is 5 years, is short in comparison with the pro-climate
adherents who usually study long timeframes and depict decadal scenarios. Contrary to these
arguments, the proposition for a change in climate finds a strong backing from the theories that
have surfaced over a number of years, to which we now turn.

THEORIES AND THE WARMTH

7
Ibid

16
 The periods discussed above - the Enlightenment age, industrial age and the present era -
evidenced a thread of arguments either for or against climate change. Each of these periods saw
the rise of several theories that informed these arguments. This section explores five theories of
climate change that existed especially around and after the industrial revolution era: terrestrial
temperatures, greenhouse gases, climate sensitivity, global temperatures and the carbon cycle
championed by Joseph Fourier, John Tyndall, Svante Augustus Arrhenius, Gay Stuart Callendar
and Charles David Keeling respectively.

Terrestrial Temperatures
Joseph Fourier's article in 1824 explained how the earth was getting warm and identified
three sources of the warmth that regulate the earth's temperature. The first one was solar
radiation, which is energy derived from the sun and that is unevenly distributed over the year
which produces different kinds of climates. Fourier claimed that the hardness of the atmosphere
and the nature of the space with the presence of sun radiation, define the average value of the
temperature each planet gets. He also added that the velocity of air and waters and the presence
of gases such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, etc. modify every climate's temperature (Fleming,
1996).
The second source of warmth pointed to by Fourier was interplanetary space. According
to Fourier, the spaces between the atmospheric bodies contain heat and they emit it to the surface
of the globe. His theory further concluded that this heat confers the planet earth with a
fundamental heat in exception of the heat from the Sun and the heat which the earth already has
since its formation (Fleming, 1996)
The third source of warmth was the heat from earth's interior. Fourier observed that the
interior of the earth (crust) emits heat that has been there since its formation. Drawing from his
studies, Fourier claimed that the deeper you go into the layers of the earth's crust, the higher the
temperature. As a proof that this heat was not from the sun, Fourier pointed out that the heat that
would have come from the sun would have affected the surface and not the interior of the crust
(Fleming, 1996). In short, Fourier claimed that these sources of warmth – solar radiation,
interplanetary space, and the earth’s interior - regulate the earth's temperature.

Greenhouse Gases
Unknowingly, Joseph Fourier set the foundation for the theory of greenhouse gases.
Though he focused on terrestrial temperatures, his explanation of the three sources of warmth
framed the basis of the greenhouse gases' argument. Some alleged that Fourier's paper was a
first qualitative proof of the gases' existence because there was no quantitative proof to affirm the
theory (Fleming, 1996). In 1859, John Tyndall built on Fourier’s theory with the theory of the
Hot House, commonly known today as the Greenhouse Gas Theory. He clearly showed that the
water vapor and gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane and ozone) in the atmosphere as
found out by Fourier have absorptive qualities that afford them the ability to consume heat that
comes from the short and long sun radiation (Hulme, 2005). Tyndall explained that these gases
with their absorptive tendencies retain amounts of short-wave and long wave heat which implied
that if humans altered the amounts of these gases in the atmosphere, they would change the
temperature for they regulate it using their ‘normal’ absorptive qualities (Fleming, 1996).

Climate Sensitivity

17
 A Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius, followed these first two scientific pioneers and
was the genius behind the theory of “climate sensitivity.” His influence was felt during the years
1896 to 1904, and he built on Tyndall’s theory of the Hot House. His experiments showed that if
the atmosphere contains no carbon dioxide, the earth's temperature falls by twenty-one degrees
and his later studies further indicated that if the amount of carbonic acid in the atmosphere goes
down to one-half of its present percentage, the temperature falls by at least four degrees. A
decrease to one-quarter decreases the temperature by almost eight degrees and the reverse of his
theory also applied: if the percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is doubled, the
temperature of the earth goes up by 4 degrees. Again, if carbon dioxide is increased four times,
the temperature rises by eight degrees. Some studies today, note that these projections are near to
the present’s projections on climate. The sensitivity, then, is the effect that a slight increase or
decrease of the carbonic acid has on the temperature of the surface of the earth.

Global Temperatures
From 1910 to 1930s, climate in North America and Europe started to feel warmer to the
general population in these regions. Amidst these climatic changes, Guy Stewart Callendar
worked hard to provide quantitative evidence to prove that the climate was getting warmer. He
built his theory on Arrhenius' climate sensitivity theory of carbon dioxide, adapting Arrhenius set
of calculations by using coefficients that were more recent. The results proved that the climate
was changing and that humans were the ones emitting carbonic acid in the atmosphere. Callendar
finished his work in the warmer winter of 1936 and 37; he presented the findings at the Royal
Meteorological Society in London but several people were skeptical of his findings. Though the
anti-climate party is known to be influenced by economic incentives today (IPCC, 2007),
Callendar’s skeptics show that there is also a scientific orientation to the denial of climate
change. In fact, in the 1950s and 1960s the weather in North America and Europe started to get
cold, thus defeating the measure of proof set by Callendar in his 1938 presentation that the next
two decades' climate would attest to the accuracy of his findings (Callendar, 1940). But, in
1986, twenty-two years after his death, what was considered to be the first truly worldwide
temperature series was published, followed by, in 2007, the IPCC conference publication of its
findings of climate change. Both of these agreed with what Callendar found - the rise in
temperature had a close connection to the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere emitted
by human activity (Hulme, 2005).

Carbon Cycle
The next step in theory building came from David Keeling, Hans Suess and Roger
Revelle, who teamed up to establish how much of the carbon dioxide after its combustion is
absorbed by the oceans and how quickly it goes into the atmosphere. This was a reaction to the
previous findings by Tyndall, Arrhenius, and Callendar on carbonic acid being emitted into the
atmosphere. They set up climate observation centers on top of the largest volcano in the US and
another one at the US South Pole Station in 1957 and 1958 respectively to establish the baseline
for emitted carbon dioxide. The results in less than two years showed that carbon dioxide was
increasing by 0.5 and 1.3 parts per million (ppm) respectively per year at both sites irrefutable
evidence of the emission of gases that crowd the atmosphere (Bates C. et al., 1982). Since it was
a huge project that needed more and sustained support to continue, it was later aborted due to
financial constraints.

18
 In sum, Fourier in 1824 in his explanation of the terrestrial temperatures identified the
presence of gases and water vapor in the atmosphere. He was followed by Tyndall in 1859, who
defined the gases' ability to absorb short and long wave heats. Arrhenius in the period 1896 to
1904, showed how sensitive the climate is to the concentration of carbon dioxide (one of the
gases) in the atmosphere. Later on in 1936/7, Callendar, in reaction to the warm climatic
conditions, proved that humans were responsible for the emissions of carbon dioxide into the
atmosphere through his global temperature theory. Finally, Keeling and his colleagues
established the rise of the emitted carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by humans in 1957 and
1958 with substantial data.

EVIDENCE OF THE WARMTH

The diagram below, Figure 3, was slightly discussed above; it is now revisited for a more
detailed explanation. It represents the coming together of the climate change theories, the
asserted changes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the observed temperatures as evidence
that climate is getting warmer, the temperatures as depicted in figure 3 look different now than
they did in the 1800s.

Figure 3: Carbon Dioxide Concentration and Global Temperature Rise Correlates

Adapted from Richard P. Horwitz' (2004)

The graphical representation shown above denotes the rise of the concentration of carbon
dioxide from 1850s as this was the period around which the first industrial revolution started;
basically, the period when more gases that are carbonic were combusted and emitted into the
atmosphere. A series of carbon dioxide concentrations from 280ppm to 390ppm correlates with
the global rising temperatures from -0.2 to +0.8 degrees Celsius. Note how starting from 1950,
40 years since the beginning of the second industrial revolution until now, the graph rises very
steeply, denoting higher temperatures in correlation to the increased amount of emitted carbon
dioxide in the atmosphere. The rise of the temperature affects many climatic processes and
ultimately these affect the general temperature of the earth. One of these processes is the
increased or decreased rate of precipitation, which results in long dry spells and in floods due to
more rains. These effects have been experienced all over the world but the most affected
countries are developing nations like Malawi.

19
 MALAWI IN PERSPECTIVE
Malawi is located in the South East of Africa bordering Zambia, Mozambique and
Tanzania. The latest national census was in 2008 and it showed a population of 13.1 million
people,8 but based on the country’s population growth rate of 2.75%, Malawi is currently
estimated to have 16,777,547 people (KPMG, 2013). A large percentage of the population (80%)
lives in the rural parts of the country, relying on subsistence farming for their survival, while a
small percentage (20%) of the population lives in the urban areas. Out of the total population, 54
percent are under the age of eighteen which means over half of the country's population is youth
and children and this creates challenges for the socio-economic development in the country in
that the majority rely on the minority for their survival. These challenges are reflected in the
general poverty statistics of the country (ICEIDA, 2012).
The country is among the poorest economies in the world (Malawi Fact Sheet, 2013) as
shown in the third and latest Integrated Household Survey (IHS3) report, which identifies two
poverty categories into which the people in Malawi fall, the poor and ultra-poor. The former's
total consumption is below $124 (MK37,002) per capita per year and the latter's total
consumption is below $77 (MK22,956) per individual per year as well. The total poverty rate is
57.7 percent (IHS3, 2012) and life expectancy is estimated at 52.31; 51.5 for males and 53.13 for
females. The unemployment rate is 15.8 percent and out of those employed, 86 percent are in
agricultural sector and 14 percent are in industry and service (KPMG, 2013). Malawi ranks 171
out of 187 in the Human Development Index (HDI); it is, therefore, a least developed nation
according to that index, as the reality of poverty is depicted in different socio-economic issues
like education, health, unemployment, gender and natural resources. Within the natural
resources challenge, climate change is identified as one of the many cross-cutting issues that
deserves considerable attention.

Malawi and Climate Change

Malawi lacks substantial data on climate change and many of those who believe there is a
change in climate do not base their opinions on scientific findings. If climate change is
understood as changes in duration, onset of seasons and frequent occurrences of extreme weather
such as floods, droughts and hailstorms, then climate change is a widely held phenomenon by the
majority in Malawi. Several reasons contribute to the lack of scientifically based opinion,
including the absence of a scientific study to show climate change in Malawi (Kaunda & Mtalo,
2013) and lack of effective meteorological systems to monitor and record climate patterns and
trends in Malawi. The latter appears to be due, at least in part; to a reduction of rainfall stations
operated by the Meteorological department in Malawi from 800 stations in 1998 to 135 stations
in 2006. Also, the department is understaffed with 42 percent unfilled vacancies (Suarez P. et
al., 2008). With this background, there is little literature that speaks to the changes in the
country's temperature.
The literature that does exist, though not substantial, still reveals two contrary views on
the climate changes in Malawi; the first view argues that the country is experiencing natural
swings of warm and cold seasons and the second view is that there is a change in climate. The
first party argues, for instance, that during period between 1990 and 2009 the country’s monthly
rainfall increased by 4 percent, whereas there was a 0.5 percent decrease from 1930 to 1960, and
a 3.1 percent decrease from 1960 to 1990, with an almost similar average across 110 years and

8
http://www.prb.org/pdf12/malawi-datasheet-2012.pdf

20
no delay or shortening of rainy seasons occurred during this time.9 Contrary to this view, the
second party adhering to the reality of change claims that there seems to have been an increase of
0.9°C between the years 1960 and 2006, higher than the average global warming of 0.80C for
Africa. The intensity of this increase has been felt in summer (December, January and February)
and quite relaxed in September, October and November.10 In addition, the daily temperature
shows substantial increase in days and at nights in all the seasons from 1960 to 2003; for
instance, the number of 'hot' days per year increased by 30.5, which is 8.3% additional hot days
and the average number of 'hot' nights per annum increased by 41, which translates to 11.1% of
nights for the same period.11 These estimations are represented in Figure 4 below. Note that the
graph shows a rising trend of the annual temperature that is rising, identical to the global rising
trend of temperature. In addition to the increase in temperature, one study has shown substantial
shifts in planting dates from 1954 to 1972 and 1988 to 2008. The comparison of these two
periods shows that planting rains were falling between the months of October and November and
communities could plant their crops in these months in the former period while the latter period
has seen planting pushed back to December or January because of the delayed rains (Action Aid,
2012).

Figure 4: Malawi’s Mean Temperature Rise

Adapted from: http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

Apart from the average temperature and the decrease of cold or the increase of hot days,
the frequency and the intensity of climate hazards occurrences suggest proof of climate change
as well. In Malawi, these have taken the form of floods and droughts, and have not been the
object of empirical study but based simply on observance. Virtually, the whole of Malawi is
vulnerable to droughts, with areas such as the Lower Shire Valley and Rumphi West affected
most severely. History has it that in the past 50 years Malawi experienced fewer droughts than
the present times, with the most frequently alluded to past hazards being the drought that
occurred in 1948/49 and floods related to cyclonic weather patterns in 1946 and 1956. In the
recent times, a thread of drought conditions and floods runs through the cropping seasons of

9
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/06/07/is-fighting-global-warming-the-solution-to-water-shortages-in-malawi-or-
elsewhere/
10
http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
11
http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk

21
1991/2, 1993/4, 2000/01, 2003/04, 2004/05 having enormous damaging effects on crop and
livestock production. Also, between 1990 and 2005, the International Federation of Red Crescent
Societies (IFRC) launched 12 appeals and operations in Malawi as a result of climate-related
disasters (Action Aid, 2012).

CONCLUSION
The exploration of the three eras - the Enlightenment, industrial revolution and the
present era - together with the theories connected to climate change, leads to a conclusion that
climate is changing. Even further, the available literature also validates the claims that humans
are major culprits of the changed climate, due to their ways of living. Though the naysayers of
climate change have some scientific arguments as raised in this chapter, alongside their
resistance to the climate change claims is the pursuit of economic growth. Nations engage in
industrial activities that combust fossil fuel; in turn, these fuels emit several gases such as carbon
dioxide, ozone, and methane collectively called greenhouse gases as they go into the atmosphere,
acting as a blanket that traps heat in the atmosphere and hinders it from leaving the earth as it is
supposed to do naturally. As more gases are continuously being released into the atmosphere, the
trapped heat increases and the temperature continues to rise. As explored in this discussion, other
quarters still do not subscribe to the pro-climate change views and cite various scientific
explanations to show that nothing is changing; whatever is being felt, they argue, is a normal
natural swing of warm and cold weather. But, current living experiences are showing incidents of
frequency and intensity connected to climate change that never existed before, as shown in the
next chapter.

22
 CHAPTER THREE

GLOBAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION
In this chapter, a more global focus of climate change is explored, looking at the effects
of climate change that signify its presence all over the world and assessing, through an analysis
of this evidence, how global the change in climate is. As stated above, my working definition of
climate change in this discussion is observed trends of the change in weather over a period of
time, due to either anthropological or natural causes.
Some of the general effects of climate change are obvious and others are not. This is due
to the resilience displayed by humans through adaptation. Resilience refers to the perseverance
of the relationships within a system and the capability of systems to take in various changes and
restrictions and still survive (Holling, 1973). The resilience of the people sometimes may
obscure the severity of the reality of climate change effects and this may hinder the call to do
something about them. In many circumstances, however, climate change effects are apparent and
the callout of this chapter is to sensitize people and ask them to pay attention to the dangers that
are taking place linked to climate change. There are five such main dangers that have been
identified by the literature: the effects that are seen in ecosystems, food and its products, coastal
and low lying locations, industry and health.

ECOSYSTEMS
While there is a general consensus that climate change exists, the pattern of the change is
not uniformly global; some parts of the world are changing rapidly, others are changing slowly
and some are not changing at all. Many changes, however, showing the overall changes of
weather patterns are documented and believed to be indicators of climate change (IPCC
Synthetic Report, 2007). Moreover, changes in one setting affect the pattern of seasons in
another setting and all of these changes still are tied to the climate change argument. Among the
many settings affected by these changes are a range of ecosystems, communities of all types of
organisms and their physical surroundings (Downie et. al 2009). These include effects on plants,
insects and animals in the following four ways: loss of vegetation, migration of birds, movement
and extinction of animals observed globally in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and America as
shown below.

Loss of Vegetation
An example of vegetation is a Biome. This is a large geographical area with similar
plants that are accustomed to a particular environment or climate e.g. deserts, deciduous forests,
grasslands, etc.12 In Africa, particularly South Africa, Fynbos Biomes are substantially
diminishing due to climate change. Fynbos is the natural grassland in South Africa and it
contributes significantly to the economy of the country as a source of wild flowers, honey-bush
tea, etc. Individuals own most of the biome and they do not have necessary support systems to
protect them from the dangers linked with the effects, which as of 2002, a projected use value
loss of 38 percent of the total biome amounting to 28 million South African Rand per year was
expected (Turpie et al., 2002).

12
http://teacherpages.hallco.org/webpages/jcarver/files/terrestial%20biomes%20for%20lab.pdf

23
Movement of animals
Plant species are shifting to different locations. Findings show that in the 21st century,
plant species travel a long distance because of the movement of animals, which are active agents
of pollination, in search of preferable weather conditions. This movement tends to be caused by
the fact that their initial habitat has undergone substantial climatic changes. In search of
preferable climatic conditions, birds and other animals carry with them seeds that fall on the
ground and germinate into plants, or at times also pollinate already existing plants. As this
happens, these plant species continue to flourish in these new locations of preferable climatic
conditions. Several studies allude to the importance of animal pollination in relation to crop
production and more also to the global food production. It is found that the production of seeds,
fruits and vegetables from 87 percent of the global leading food crops rely on animal pollination,
representing 35 percent of the world’s food production (Klein et al., 2007). On another note, out
of 1330 of tropical plant species, approximately 70 percent of them are improved by one variety
influenced by animal pollination (Roubik, 1995). All of these statistics assert the movement of
animals in search of suitable climate for their survival.

Extinction of Animals
It is shown that as warmer temperatures continue to exist animals that are used to cooler
places are moving up north to higher elevation, which provides colder temperatures. Those who
do not make it fail to survive in the new warmer conditions availed by the changes in climate.
Insects, mammals and birds also are shifting their habitation because of the observed effects of
climate changes such as the rising temperature or the prolonged rainfall that make areas moist for
a longer period. As animals shift, some make it while others go extinct. Along these lines, the
current conditions foresee 120 native European mammals facing extinction representing 9% of
the total. In addition, it is projected that most species will be eradicated by 2050 (Feehan, J.,
2008). Polar bears in the Arctic Circle are an example of this fact: they live in cold regions and
habitat very well with the presence of snow and cold weather, and changes to their setting means
that they either relocate or die. Currently, the bears are facing a problem of the warming of their
habitat as estimations show that in the Arctic Circle in Alaska, the climate has warmed about two
times more than the United States connected to it. In 1980, the area covered by ice in Arctic area
was 7.8 million sq. kilometers, which declined to 2.7 million sq. kilometers in 2012, 49% smaller
than what it was in 1980. In 2009, it was reported by biologists at the International Union for the
Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Polar Bear Specialist Group that of the 19 subpopulations of
polar bears, 8 were declining, 3 were stable and 1 was increasing but in 2005, 5 were declining, 5
were stable and 2 were increasing. The other 7 had insufficient data, however, long term studies
show that the Western Hudson Bay in Canada has 22 percent decline since the early 1980s
suggesting a decrease possibility in the remaining 7 populations.13 In another example, in Asia,
coral reefs are an ecosystems being affected with climate change, since they are made up of tiny
animals that belong to a group called “cnidaria” that are not mobile and survive by preying on
small fish.14 Coral reefs are very productive and as such provide a conducive habitat and nursery
grounds for 10 to 20 percent of the world’s fisheries (ESA, 2000).
In addition, they protect coastal areas against erosion, sedimentation, floods, storm
surges and they are a source of revenue through tourisms. It is observed that coral coverage in
the Indian Ocean islands and South Asia combined has shrunk from 40 percent in 1997 to about

13
http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/science/polar-bear-status-report
14
http://water.epa.gov/type/oceb/habitat/coral_index.cfm

24
20 percent in 2002.15

Birds Migration
Polar bears are not the only population of animals undergoing significant relocation or
facing extinction. It is projected that in search for suitable climatic conditions, apart from facing
death, many birds will likely shift going northeast. In Australia, it is estimated that since 1980s,
there were 50,000 to 60,000 migratory birds but in the last five years, these have declined to
somewhere between 5,000 and 15,000 (Ward, 2006). The same pattern exists in the United States
of America; data shows that northeastern birds that usually migrate long distances are wintering,
spending winter somewhere, in the south of the US and arrive back in the Northeast an average
of 12 days earlier than they did during the first half of the last century, with birds wintering in
South America arriving back in the Northeast an average of four days earlier.16
Due to climate change, the setting in ecosystems has and will continue to change. Some
species will end up benefiting and others will not as some will be relieved of competition and
others will be introduced to competition. However, the overall effect is negative. As plants
become mobile and animals continue to change habitat influenced by climate changes, there is a
danger to the survival of terrestrial ecosystems. These eco-systemic changes can affect the
availability of animals and vegetation, and therefore, people’s lives that depend on such systems
for their survival (Gonzalez P., et. al., 2010).

FOOD SECURITY
Food security means that people have to access sufficient, safe and nutritious food that
meets their dietary needs.17 Climate change has affected food security, which comes from the
kinds of food we produce (food production) and the ones we obtain from natural sources (wild
sources). Natural foods comprise some 7000 species of plants and several hundreds of animals
(Pimbert, 1999), including leafy vegetables, fruits, nuts, fish, bush and meat and other insects
(Millennium Ecosystems Assessment, 2005). Both foods produced and natural foods have
declined, with the effects of climate change being one of the factors. Climatic conditions such as
long dry spells and heavy rains affect humans in reaching optimal food production; in the same
way, such situations limit the survival of the natural sources of food (wild animals and
vegetation). One study on food production provides an example of this problem. In the Republic
of the Marshall Island (RMI), one of the Pacific islands, a study was carried out to explore the
connection between climate change and food security. The results of the study revealed that
some of the crops the population relies on - copra, breadfruit and pandanus - drastically declined
in their availability in relation to the climatic extremes and increased occurrences of droughts in
the recent years. As such, the country switched to imported food which proved to be a huge
expense for the country’s economy (FAO, 2008). Data from five continents, Africa, Australia,
Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia attest to the decline or challenges of attaining food
security as shown below.
First, Ethiopia, in Africa, experienced poor rains from March to May 2013, which
affected agricultural processes that later reduced the volume of the people’s harvest in that year.
The most affected were the pastoralist and agro-pastoralist areas in the southern and south east of
the country and the situation saw 2.7 million people receiving humanitarian aid because of the

15
http://go.worldbank.org/D5HXF9G4O0
16
http://nca2009.globalchange.gov/ecosystems
17
http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/al936e/al936e00.pdf

25
decrease in harvested food. In Uganda, 258,200 people were the victims of the dry spell that took
place in 2013; they relied on humanitarian aid but even that was not sufficient enough for all the
affected people (WFP, 2013). Second, Australia started experiencing droughts and floods
connected to the presence of climate change and this affected the supply of food in 2002 and
2003. In 2003, the country experienced drought, which lowered the production of fresh produce
such as fresh fruit and vegetables. The reduced output of fruits and vegetables translated into a
real gross value of 9 percent of the usual total output, which took several years to recover from.
In addition, the same drought affected the availability of honey in that year, 2003, so that the
price of honey doubled.18
Third, the effect of climate change on food has not spared Asia as shown by the case of
Pakistan. In 2012, there were heavy rains in the country such that floods occurred and affected
1.5 million people. Obviously, either most of their crops did not do well or they were carried
away by the water, leading to severely reduced harvests and hiked prices of food. Due to the low
output that occurred because of the floods, wheat prices skyrocketed such that in September
2013 they rose 22 percent over the previous year (WFP, 2012). Fourth, in Latin America, due to
the conditions brought about by climate change, rot fungus was observed in coffee plantations in
Dominican Republic. According to the International Coffee Organization, these fungi were
projected to destroy 33 to 100 percent of the harvests in 54 percent of the land used to grow
coffee. The damage to coffee production was estimated to have cost 441,000 jobs in the coffee
production in 2013 (WFP, 2013).
Fifth, North America is experiencing climate change but literature has not captured yet
the effect of the change on food. The available literature has, however, simulated scenarios for
2030 and 2090 and projections show that food will be affected by the new climatic conditions.
For instance, tomatoes are supposed to decline in their output by 10 to 15 percent, potatoes will
have a reduced output of 50 percent in 2030, dry-land soybean by 2030 will have a reduced
harvest of 10 to 30 percent, and rice will see its harvest reduced by 5 – 10 percent of the usual
average output.19
Generally, there are food security challenges globally as depicted by the situations
discussed above either directly related to wild sources of food or production affected by the
changes in the climate. Since food security is a broad concept, its specific dimensions, which are
food availability, accessibility and utilization (FAO, 2008), are further explored below to
emphasize the totality of the problem from selected locations of the world.

Food Availability
Food availability refers to the physical quantities of food that are produced and
distributed. Studies establish that 50 percent of the world’s food production comes from forest
and mountain landscapes, and that only 13 percent of the globe’s food production is cultivated on
arable flat land. In addition, rain-fed and irrigated crops account for an estimated 25 percent and
rice in coastal location constitutes 12 percent of the world’s food production (Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). The changes in rainfall and temperatures promote geographical
distribution of wild foods in that the change in rainfall amount in a particular area may allow or
disallow the growth of other plants or the presence of some animals, and this affects food
availability. Climatic conditions changes have contributed to the declining supply of wild foods.
In sub – Sahara, plant species are declining in number and predictions record that about 97

18
http://www.environment.gov.au/node/21960#ocean-ecosystems
19
http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/15AG.pdf

26
percent of the favorable habitats will decrease in size due the changes in climate (Levin &
Pershing, 2005). These numbers imply the challenges in the availability of food to people.

Food Allocation
Food allocation is defined as the distribution decisions moderated by market and non-
market mechanisms at the national, communal and family level. Some market mechanisms
include but are not limited to the cost of the produce and income of the people. Non – market
mechanisms include production for own consumption or allocation within household setting.
Climate change effects affect these non-market practices and they ultimately affect the market
mechanisms. The drought of 2001 and 2002 in Malawi, for example, points to this reality. Due to
the famine, many families failed to secure their own food and the scarce food was too expensive
for most people to afford. As the situation got worse, families had to choose who to feed between
children and older people; children received priority over the old ones (Loevinsohn, 2009).

Food Utilization
The FAO defines food utilization as the ability of the person to extract important
nutrients from the food consumed. It includes the nutritional value, the food’s composition and
the way it has been prepared (FAO, 2008). Food utilization further involves all sanitary
conditions across the entire food chain (Schmidhuber & Tubiello, 2007). Climate change effects
have the potential to disturb the food composition because of the altered favorable conditions for
the crop’s growth or the food’s storage.
Another factor around food utilization is that of food poisoning. The bacterium
Salmonella lives in the intestinal tracts of humans and other animals, and eating foods that are
contaminated with animal feces is one of the ways humans get food poisoning. Usually these
foods are of animal origin, e.g. beef, poultry, milk or eggs; fruits and vegetables may also be
contaminated. Salmonella and other pathogens that cause food poisoning are increased in high
and moist temperatures. The effects of climate change such as the rising temperatures, therefore,
accelerate the growth of pathogen and lead to more instances of food poisoning. One study in
Europe that looked at this link showed that Salmonella situations in the 10 European nations
were positively correlated with the past month’s temperature, where a month that scored high in
temperature was followed up by an increase in instances of food poisoning. In another study,
projections show that if the temperatures continue to rise over the next 50 years, the number of
food poisoning cases per year will increase by 6000 in 10 European countries (Andrews, 2011).

COASTAL AND LOW LYING LOCATIONS

Floods, shoreline recession, and salt water invasions describe the living trend for people
living in coastal or in low lying locations. Some human activities, such as the tourist industry and
increasing population along the coastal regions, have compounded the already vulnerable state of
the coastal and low lying locations and put people’s lives at risk (Mustelin, 2010). In the tourism
industry, many lake houses, resorts and lodges are being erected close to shorelines because of
their beautiful sceneries. Also, the general world population growth results in the scarcity of
land, and for some poor people the only option they have is to live in the areas close to the lakes,
seas, oceans and other natural water reservoirs. This setting is confronted with the challenges of
floods. Since climate change results in increased temperature, the increased temperature leads to
increased precipitation which results in irregular patterns of rainfall. Some areas will continually
receive less, while others will receive more. As the amount of rainfall increases, so do the levels

27
of the water reservoirs, thereby resulting in floods, and leading to three ultimate situations: loss
of human life, loss of business investments and the strain on government’s budgets.

The loss of human life

When water levels go up, people will have to find ways to survive the floods.
Mozambique, where 60 percent of the population lives in coastal areas, presents solid evidence
on how floods can wreck people’s lives. Coastal locations are characterized by sea level rise as a
direct result of human-induced climate change, manifested by inundation, increase of shoreline
erosion and high extreme water levels leading to coastal flooding. Regional measurements at the
Maputo meteorological station in Mozambique are admittedly poor, but they show consistency
with the regional trends estimates of sea level rise caused by human induced climate change
(World Bank, 2010). In 2000, the country experienced floods because of the heavy rains that
resulted in the overflowing of the Indian Ocean close to it. The floods affected more than 2
million people and caused 700,000 deaths. In 2001, the Zambezi River flooded because of the
huge amounts of rainfall. It claimed 115 people’s lives and affected 500,000 people. From 2002
to 2006, the country registered over 700,000 being affected by floods in the south and central
provinces.20 These three situations are further linked to the change of the temperature which is a
key cause of climate change and its effects.

The loss of business investments

There is a negative correlation between infrastructure erection and economic
development in the coastal areas. As the beaches, salt marshes and shrimp farms are being
constructed; they affect the elevation of the coastal areas. This means that the floods and
increase in sea levels may destroy these infrastructure erections including houses, beaches, salt
marshes and shrimp farms affecting the lives of the people and the related development (Boori,
2010). Other studies have also shown that climate variability and changes affect tourism
business. With the rampant sea level rises and changed weather conditions, people do not feel
comfortable and safe in considering coastal tourism. Also, some factors like inundation and soil
erosion will continually change the appearance of the beaches for the worst. With these reasons,
outdoor recreation using coastal tourism as a vehicle is potentially affected (Coombes et al.,
2009) and, in the end, the businesses suffer and may have to close out.

The strain on government’s budgets

Increased floods end up wrecking people’s homes and other important facilities like
hospitals or schools. These lead to the need for renovations or rebuilding, and it costs the
government huge amounts of money that further affects the overall economic development of
that particular area or country. In the UK for instance, in 2007, surface water flooding in cities
and towns led to cost of 270 Million Sterling Pounds each year (Moffat A. et al., 2010). I
presume that this cost, much as it is higher than the one experienced by developing nations, but
the latter represents a bigger percentage in their economy because of their underdeveloped social
structures.

INDUSTRIES
The variability and changes of climate has touched most of the areas of society, and
industries have not been spared. Climate change has considerable disadvantage for many

20
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dra/documents/CDSCaseStudy_Mozambique_V2_Withpictures.pdf

28
business people and even their respective clients, and a main area is in the insurance business.
Big businesses in the insurance industry witnessed 236,000 deaths and incurred $181
billion in economic losses in 2008 due to climate related disasters. These deaths are 3 times the
average number of deaths experienced in the industry for the past 10 years, and the value of the
economic loss is two times the number of the business loss experienced in the last decade as
well.21 Out of this huge economic loss, only $4 billion was insured (Mills, 2009).
In the same year, 2008, a survey was conducted among 70 insurance analysts to
determine the top risk affecting the insurance industry; climate change scooped position one, and
the rest of the risks were compounded by climate change (Ernest & Young, 2008). In another
study carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers, 100 insurance industry representatives from 21
countries reported that climate change is number four out of the 33 issues facing their businesses
(PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2007).
Hecht (2008) argues that though insurance may be one of the solutions to the dangers of
climate change, the high chances of the occurrences of disasters linked with climate change
challenges that anticipation. Cases discussed give a glimpse of the kinds of situations the
insurance business should expect to face and by looking at the magnitude of the statistics shown
above, insurance companies selling policies related to climate change will always have a pricy
bearing. The high cost associated with these policies perceives how catastrophic the anticipated
accidents (by climate-related factors) are. Therefore, access to such policies will not be easy for
the poor but easier for the rich. This may even be a challenge for the growth of the business for
the industry will only service very few people.

HEALTH
Climate change and variability stand as triggers to health problems. The nature and
intensity of these health problems vary because of several factors such as geographical location,
population density and demographic details of the population. Those living in areas with distinct
geographical features like islands face different kinds of health problems than those living on the
main-lands. Population density of an area may also lead to certain characteristics of diseases
different from the areas without many people and some people that are old are likely to face
considerable challenges from some diseases which the younger generation may be able to cope
with. These types of health challenges affected by climate change can be grouped into three
different categories: as immediate physical health challenges, viral and bacterial diseases or
infections, and cardiovascular challenges which we turn to now.

Immediate physical health challenges

Geographical location exacerbates the health problems linked to climate change and
variability. Small islands demonstrate this truth. Usually, small islands are exposed to tropical
cyclones, storm uproars, floods, and droughts. These vulnerable situations have long and short
term health results. The climate change proposition argues that its existence increases the
intensities of floods and droughts, which may imply that people in islands are likely to have
many more and more extensive instances of floods and other climate related disasters. For
instance, the Maldives, an archipelago that has a series of small islands situated in the Indian
Ocean, has a land area where 80% of it lies less than one meter above the mean sea level, and
climate change with its associated sea level rise results in catastrophic injuries. In 1987, the

21
http://insurance.lbl.gov/opportunities/risk-to-opportunity-2008.pdf

29
archipelago experienced unusual waves inundating two thirds of the whole Maldives for two
days and causing extensive damage including the destruction of infrastructure (UFCCC, 2005).
Some of the health issues that come with these conditions include drowning, injuries, and disease
transmissions; in addition, mental disorders are also a common challenge. These disorders are a
result of the continual occurrences of the disasters and the psychological challenges that come
with them (Ebi et al., 2006).

Viral and bacterial diseases

At the core of climate change argument is the pollution of the air. A mixture of polluted
air and high temperatures stands as the source of different diseases and this has direct
implications for the health on the people. For instance, ozone, which is one of the polluting
gases, is more concentrated by the high temperatures and as humans inhale such polluted air,
weakens their health system sets them to be vulnerable to the present bacteria and viruses around
them.
Other diseases are also exacerbated by climate change. A study revealed that some of the
diseases such as chicken pox and viral meningitis, for example, that were never thought to be
influenced by climate are observed to be greatly induced by the changes and variability in
climate (Bultó et al., 2006), since they tend to spread quickly when the temperatures are high.
Another case is dengue fever, a viral disease transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito and a
problem that is global but with tropical and sub – tropical countries being the worst hit. It is
reported that the occurrences of dengue is highly correlated with high temperatures and lower
relative humidity (Shang et al., 2010). The change in climate creates a setting in which these
mosquitos adapt to live near human areas for habitation and it prefers to feed on human beings. 22
Studies reveal that over 2.5 billion people are living in dengue-affected locations, with an
additional 120 million people traveling to affected areas, resulting in an annual number of
dengue infections estimated at 50 to 100 million. From 2001 to 2005, eight countries such as
Brazil El Salvador, Guatemala, Panama, Venezuela from Americas and Cambodia, Malaysia,
Thailand from Asia combined a reported 574,000 annual deaths, but outbreaks ranged from
253,000 to 1,020,000 per year (Suaya A. J. et al., 2009). The World Health Organization (WHO),
in turn, reports that cases across the Americas, South-east Asia and the Western Pacific have
exceeded 1.2 million cases in 2008 and over 2.3 million in 2010. Other cases also appeared in
Europe, France and Croatia in 2010 and imported cases were detected in three other European
countries. In 2012, dengue appeared on Madeira Islands of Portugal, resulting in 2000 cases in
addition to cases in 10 other countries in Europe. In 2013, dengue cases occurred in Florida,
USA and Yunnan province of China, but the figures are not known.23

Cardiovascular health challenges

Climate change avails increased heat waves, periods of prolonged heat. The combination
of these high temperatures and corresponding increase in the concentration of ozone gases, as
noted above, increases the cardiac efforts and impairs the pulmonary gas exchange especially in
older people and other susceptible individuals. Usually, as these elderly people fight the
disruption of ozone and high temperatures, many cardiac-related health challenges erupt. Some
of these challenges are high blood pressure, heat stroke, bronchitis, asthma, glaucoma and even
cardiac arrests. The summer heat waves that occurred in 2003 in Europe, for example, resulted in

22
http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf
23
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs117/en/

30
35,000 deaths and many of them were cardiovascular-related (EEA 2004: Pirard, et al., 2005). In
the United States of America, cardiovascular diseases were the leading cause of death,
registering 631,636 deaths. The American Heart Association and the National Heart, Lung, and
Blood Institute together projected that there will $475.3 billion in direct or indirect spending on
cardiovascular diseases (Portier J. C. et al 2010). The WHO estimated that 17.5 million deaths
occurred in 2005 from cardiovascular diseases that represented 30 percent of all global deaths 80
percent are from low and middle income countries. Other studies project that by the year 2020
mortality rates by cardiovascular cases are expected to rise by 120 percent for women and 137
percent for men (BeLue et al 2009).

CONCLUSION
A quick run-down of the effects of climate change on the globe in this chapter shows that
there are challenges requiring individual nations to take steps to address climate change. The
effects of climate change on ecosystems, food, coastal and low lying locations, industry and
health touches every dimension of human survival. These consequences clearly show that
climate change is a development concern. It makes sense, therefore, for it to be incorporated into
the planning of a country's development strategies. The next chapter discusses some of the
strategies to deal with these difficulties, which are proper environmental policies and appropriate
adaptation and mitigation practices.

31
 CHAPTER FOUR

STRATEGIES AND APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

(Adaptation and Mitigation)

INTRODUCTION
It is now beyond refutation that climate change has affected anthropogenic existence.
Two realities exist: either watch catastrophes happen or find ways for humans to stay alive. The
latter option has a twofold implication. The first implication is to minimize the danger and the
second implication is to enhance defense. Technically, these implications are articulated in the
following two words: mitigation and adaptation. This chapter explores these concepts and their
application globally in different settings.
Adaptation stands as one of the responses to climate change's destructive effects by
taking advantage of the natural abilities and resources to adjust to the deformed environment.
However, studies drawn from most parts of the world on climate change indicate that our
response to this phenomenon cannot only be to adapt. More needs to be done. We need to
lessen the severity of the climate change through mitigation, meaning that we minimize the net
emissions of the greenhouse gases (Schaffnit-Chatterjee 2011).
As discussed earlier, the presence of these gases in the atmosphere has caused the warmer
temperature of the earth and failure to tackle the problem would mean more warming. This
section highlights the contributions of the greenhouse gases from different economic sectors
since understanding their role will help to find strategies to combat this problem. Globally,
statistics show that energy supply, industry and agriculture are the top sectors emitting gases,
with the following overall proportions: energy supply emitted 26% of GHG, industry constituted
19%, 13% was for transport, 14% came from agriculture, all residential, commercial and service
sectors contributed 8% and waste made up 3% of emissions (2007, IPCC).
The best adaptation and mitigation practices should focus on some of these high emitting
greenhouse gas economic sectors. This chapter surveys a number of practices on adaptation and
mitigation with the goal of seeing their impacts on the survival of man from the climate change
and variability context. The positive contribution of adaptation and mitigation to reducing the
effects of climate change is recognized, promoted and possibly adopted by other parts of the
world.
Further, I discuss the relationship between particular adaptation and mitigation practices
and the general policy environment of particular countries since for adaptation and mitigation
practices to succeed there has to be a relationship with the country's general policy framework.
Favorable policy environment in a country results in the adaptive or mitigation practice's
success; the opposite is also true. Several cases from different nations are reviewed, and lessons
drawn from them are highlighted. The discussion starts with adaptation practices from the
Philippines and Mexico.

ADAPTATION PRACTICES
Philippines

The Philippines is one of the victims of the climate change and variability’s effects. The
country is an archipelago consisting of 7,107 islands with a total area of 299,404 sq. km.
Agriculture provides a substantial contribution of 14 percent to the country’s total GDP,

32
employing over one-third of the population (GFDRR, 2011). Even though the country has
registered many cases of destructive typhoons in 1998, 2006, 2008 and 2009, (Beasca, 2012),
several studies did not find any contribution of human induced climate change to their
occurrences (ESCAP/WMO, 2012). However, other fingerprints of climate change have not gone
unnoticed, such as the rise in temperature. From 1951 to 2010, the average annual temperature of
the Phillipines rose by0.648 0C.24 Different parts of the country experienced varied increases of
temperature, with other locations higher than the annual national increment. The annual
temperature increment for Manila, for example, from 1901 to 2011 is 2.18 0C.25 This means that
different locations in this country are faced with varying degrees of the effects of climate change
and as a response to such experiences a project called "Strengthening the Philippines Institutional
Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change" was launched in 2008.

Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change

Strengthening the Philippines Institution Capacity to Adapt to Climate change is a Joint
Programme that included 8 UN agencies and the Philippines’ responsible government
department; it was funded by Millennium Development Goal Achievement Fund (MDG - F). As
the title highlights, the intention was to enhance the various institutions' ability to handle the
effects of Climate Change. The scope of the project was both horizontal (local people) and
vertical (government hierarchy). For instance, the first outcome of the project was to inject
climate risk strategies into the national and other local development plans and processes. The
second outcome of the project was to strengthen the national and local capacity for carrying out
responses to climate change risks. The third outcome of the project was to invent coping
strategies through several pilot projects. These three strategies denote local and national
involvement (Beasca, 2012).
Among the many activities carried out in this project under the afore-mentioned
outcomes was the creation of Climate Change Academy. It was established in Albay,
Philippines as a learning center on climate change adaptation, with a focus on disaster risk
reduction and climate change awareness. Through its input, public school teachers tailored their
lessons in fifteen towns. The practices, methods and ideas championed by the academy itself
were accessible to the locals, and it started effecting change in the public instructional designs on
climate change risks. Also, in the sub – provinces of Benguet and Ifugao, climate change
adaptation options for the upland farming were introduced in 97 sites, paying attention to the
women’s needs and overall human rights issues. One of the examples of these options was the
production of different cash crops to provide income for those families affected by climate
change. Small-scale agricultural-infrastructure investments were also another option because
they were able to generate income that helped amidst effects of climate change such as droughts
or floods. The report showed that many farmers reported positive results of these options (Beasca
2012).
Another effect of the project took place in Sorsogon City. Drawn from the human
settlement vulnerability assessment report, a city shelter plan with climate change parameters in
mind was set with the goal of accruing resilience for the coastal settlements and the resultant
output was the modification of houses in 5 different sites, retrofitting them to climate-resilient
housing structures. Also, there were livelihood training courses for better income acquisition of
the coastal settlers. These activities were done locally with the people and the responsible

24
http://www.climateadapt.asia/upload/events/files/4f7565e804fdc2_PAGASA.pdf
25
Ibid.

33
government branch. It is reported that many of the participants were using the courses in
processing food and masonry (Beasca 2012) indicating that the project in general, was successful
though more work was still required to strengthen its sustainability.

Policy Environment
The success of the project ‘Strengthening the Philippines Institutional Capacity to Adapt
to Climate Change’ is not only explained through its creativity or uniqueness. Behind this
success, there was a conducive environment to afford it. Efforts for better response to climate
change in Philippines started several decades ago, when in 1989 the government created a
strategy for sustainable development.26 Over the years, this has been modified and other
strategies have been added with different labels. The formidable force of climate related disasters
pushed the government to modify its policy environment to survive, leading it to set up
additional policy frameworks and appropriate strategies to challenge the diverse environmental
effects of climate change as shown below.
In 2009, the Climate Change Law was instituted to articulate the legal acceptability of
climate change interventions. Following this, the Climate Change Commission was formed to
initially mainstream climate change seriousness in government operations. It also acted to work
as a coordination interface of the government's actors on climate change activities. The peak of
this process was the creation of the "National Framework Strategy on Climate Change”
(NFSCC) and the subsequent Action Plan which mainstreamed human rights and gender equality
issues into these policies. One of the guiding principles of the NFSCC is that adaptation
measures shall be based on equity with special attention given to ensure equal and equitable
protection of the poor, women, children and other vulnerable and disadvantaged sectors.27 The
Action Plan, on the other hand, outlined programmes of action for climate change, identified
communities that were most vulnerable to adverse impacts and considered differential impacts
on women, children and marginalized populations (CDKN, 2012). For instance, its priority
number 7, Knowledge and Capacity Development, stipulates the establishment of gendered
climate change knowledge management accessible to all sectors at the national and local levels
and included in its activities was the implementation of a gendered information education
campaign and accessible climate change adaptation and mitigation special or customized
technical training programs (NCCAP, 2011). These were approved by the government in 2010
and 2011 respectively.
Furthermore, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Law which was passed in
May 2010 added to the improved environment of dealing with climate change phenomena. None
of these policy instruments came out of a vacuum; there were other previous development
interventions from 2007 until 2009 that were linked to climate change, the UNDP Philippines
project “Strengthening the Disaster Preparedness Capacities of REINA Municipalities to
Geologic and Meteorological Hazards” being one example (Beasca 2012).

Discussion
Intervention in climate change-related disasters not only calls for unique and creative
responses, it calls for policy consideration also. This policy discussion, in the case of the
Philippines, articulated the need for a flexible and updated policy framework that entailed a

26
^ "PHILIPPINE STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT: A Conceptual Framework" . PA 21 PSDN.
Retrieved 2011-09-13
27
http://www.seachangecop.org/files/documents/nfscc-part_1.pdf

34
consideration of contemporary issues like human rights and gender equality. In the Joint
Programme project, women's issues surfaced and the right treatment was given to ensure better
results. A conclusion to draw from this is that wrong policy prescriptions to such issues may
hinder the progress.

Mexico
Mexico is in the tropical to sub-tropical latitude range from 15 – 32 degrees north and it
features plateaus and mountains. Its position situates two thirds of the country in arid or semi-
arid zones and the other one third is exposed to floods because of its contact with the tropical
cyclones on the coastal margins (Herron, 2013). This natural geographical setting further exposes
it to high temperatures and distinct season variations of hot and cold (Country Profile, 2008).
The setting also exposes it to hazardous climatic events. North-easterly trade winds blow from its
eastern coastline, bringing warm air from the warm Caribbean Sea, and the north-western wind
(Pacific) from the cold Californian ocean current meet on the western side of the country. These
features set Mexico’s temperature high and result in desert conditions. The north-west coastal
region is the driest part of Mexico, with only 225mm of annual rainfall. Other areas have high
precipitation; for instance, Merida, Tampico and Acapulco report 1050mm, 1149mm and
1284mm of average rainfall per annum respectively (Met Office, 2011). Mexico’s geographical
position with diverse seasons and natural climatic occurrences like hurricanes (Country Profile,
2008), makes it more vulnerable as the effects of climate change are put in the mix. It is
estimated that 15% of its territory, 68.2% of the population and 71% of its GDP are presently
exposed to the direct risk of the different effects of climate change because of its natural
vulnerability (World Bank, 2009). Moreover, climate change has jeopardized the current state of
coffee production in Mexico in general. There are 67,000 producers and 153,000 hectares
allotted to coffee production in 82 municipalities. Coffee production, therefore, generates
300,000 permanent jobs and 30 million daily wages per annum. 73% of coffee producers in the
state are small-scale, and they each own 2 hectares or less (Eschborn, 2010).
Deliberate adaptation to climate change efforts was employed by the government to
offset the danger posed by climate change; it started with the region of Chiapas and then took it
to the other parts of the country. In Chiapas, coffee production constitutes 70% of the families’
income so any negative climate change effect would send most families into economic hardship
(Eschborn, 2010). The scariest scenario is that the past 15 years have witnessed an increase in the
rate of precipitation in the Chiapas area as well as an increase in the average annual
temperatures. Those months that were supposed to be dry (January and February) and suitable
for drying coffee beans were characterized, as a result, by rain showers. Producers were,
therefore, forced to sun dry their coffee beans and it affected their quality. The following
adaptation practices to climate change were launched between January and December 2009:
maintaining and increasing forest cover, pest management, and energy renewable practices
(Eschborn, 2010)
To maintain and increase forest cover, producers agreed to ban burning practices. In
enforcing this, they carried out workshops that focused on bush fire prevention training and
awareness. Mas Café, one of the cooperatives of farmers who were in coffee production,
adopted the strategy of creating forest cover to protect the coffee plantations from erratic rains
and conserve humidity in the overall coffee ecosystems; to do this, they enlarged the Mas Café’s
nursery, increasing it to produce 450,000 plants per cycle rather than 150,000 plants as it was
before. In addition, 24 communal extension services in 6 cooperatives were trained to collect

35
native forest seedlings, multiply them in nurseries, and share amongst the farmers to plant them.
This practice of planting trees permits reforestation in the end if the trees are properly taken care
of. Reforestation, then, is hoped to bring back the lost conditions favorable for the growing of
coffee (Eschborn, 2010). At present, there is no literature that evaluates the results of this project,
especially since it takes a long time to assess the effect of forest cover.
On pest management, the famers agreed not to apply chemical pesticides in their
agricultural activities. To do this, two capacity building workshops with ECOSUR on Integrated
Pest Management were run. Another cooperative, Kulaktik, conducted 8 workshops for bringing
awareness to the members of the cooperative not to apply the chemical pesticides. Besides the
ban to apply chemical pesticides, 132 greenhouses were in use to grow vegetables that would
then improve the soil fertility at the household level. At least 80% of the farmers from the 2
cooperatives started putting hedges in their plots and about 90% of the producers from the same
cooperatives were composting their own sites, to deal with both pests and soil infertility.
On securing an alternative coffee drying process, farmers in Mexico visited Nicaragua
and Huatusco in the Mexican state of Veracruz to learn drying techniques. Out of these visits, 30
solar driers as demonstration units were set up for communal use. In addition, communal
workshops were implemented to improve wet milling on a farmer level.
These activities brought various benefits that helped farmers survive with their coffee
production amidst the changes in climate. Through the maintenance of forest cover, biodiversity
richness was conserved especially by ensuring the presence of humidity in the plantations since
most bio-diverse zones are prone to the negative effects of climate change such as droughts,
which generally makes the ecosystems dry. Among the targeted communities, there was the
environmental awareness of the ban of applying chemical pesticides and general environmental
change issues. Activities to manage pest attack, one of the effects of climate change, focused on
improving natural pest management practices to ensure reduced pest attack as opposed to
chemical pesticides. The renovations of coffee plantations, including taking steps to prevent soil
degradation, also reduced the effect of climate change, increasing resilience and ensuring the
improvement in the production of coffee. Drying techniques that were learnt in Nicaragua helped
these farmers to still dry their coffee bean with no compromise of quality. These adaptation
efforts were the work of many stakeholders, including the AdapCC, Mas Café, Cooperatives, and
Mexican’s institutions like ECOSUR, SEDESOL, PPODESIS, and many others.

Policy Environment
Different players managed to be part of the climate agenda without institutional or
regulation hindrances because the issue was widely accepted by those in power and institutions
were set to entertain contribution from diverse players. Part of this was due to Mexico’s
international commitments: the Mexican federal government adopted and ratified the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in June 1998, Mexico
signed the Kyoto Protocol in June 1998; the Mexico Senate approved it and in 2000, the Official
Gazette published it (Audit Report, 2011).
These international charters created the need to adjust the country’s policy environment
in responding to climate change. In 2004 January, in response to its international commitments,
the Mexican Committee for Greenhouse Gases Emissions and Capture Reduction Projects were
created (Audit Report, 2011) and in 2005, the Inter-Ministerial Climate Change Commission
(CICC) was established, integrating 11 ministries. Following the creation of various bodies to
create a better structure in dealing with climate change, the federal government developed its

36
National Climate Change Strategy in 2007. Two years after this, in 2009, the CICC published the
Special Climate Program (PECC). In this publication, 105 of its objectives and 294 targets were
designed to align with the objectives of the five-year 2007-2012 National Development Plan
(NDP) (Herron, 2013). The establishment of these institutions and forums that were devoted to
the climate change agenda transformed the existing environment and created an environment for
other players to effectively contribute to the adaptation strategies needed to survive climate
change phenomenon.

MITIGATION PRACTICES
Mitigation practices refer to efforts employed to minimize the amount of gases emitted
into the atmosphere that increase the atmospheric gases that perpetrate global warming. This
section surveys two successful mitigation practices, drawn from Mexico and Chile that may be
copied by other countries in the efforts to mitigate global warming. The discussion covers
particular projects geared towards climate change followed by the present policy environment in
these countries. Since much of Mexico’s policy environment has been covered under the
adaptation discussion, this section skips it especially because the mitigation project explored here
was instituted in 2008 around the same time that the federal government of Mexico was putting
in place institutions and policies that supported adaptation and mitigation initiatives to climate
change.

Mexico
Mexico’s successful adaptation story outlined above also records the story of its
successful mitigation efforts, especially in the relationship between homes and water and energy
use. Statistics show that there are over 20 million homes in Mexico and projections show that 20
million more are going to be built in the next 20 years. This results in a substantial demand
increase for water and energy. Calculations further estimate that 16.5% of energy produced in the
country is consumed by homes.28 It is estimated that this increase in consumption will lead to the
release of an additional 33 million tons of CO2 per year if there is no action to improve the
building energy usage (CCAP, 2012).
In fact, Mexico has been working on this front. In the past 10 years, the country has
instituted different initiatives to increase energy efficiency, two of which dealt with using home
energy more efficiently: “eco-homes” and “This is Your House.” In the first initiative, property
developers were encouraged to construct homes that use energy-saving features including solar
heating, thermal isolation, and more efficient air conditioning. In the second initiative (This is
Your House) the federal government helped low income purchasers of new or used homes and
even those in possession of good housing to retrofit their properties. These efforts were put in
place to help the country’s plan of promoting sustainable housing development which is also a
way of mitigating the emission of gases in the atmosphere (CCAP, 2012).
Under the eco-homes, Mexico started a Green Mortgage program which was run by the
Mexican National Fund for Workers’ Dwellings. It is a public-private partnership institution and
it supports the workers in the private sector. As workers contribute 5% of their monthly income
to the fund, they in return get the opportunity to obtain mortgages. Through this initiative, $1250
is added on the initial mortgage for the workers to manage to buy new homes with energy-saving

28
http://negocios.promexico.gob.mx/english/09-2009/art05.html

37
technology that are priced under $40,000.29 One of their assumptions in this program is that cost
savings from their utility bills (because of energy savers) will support the larger mortgages. Also,
attractive mortgages increase eco-homes demand and this promotes the construction industry.
Alongside this program, another was designed by the federal government that focused on
those who earn even lower income. Those whose monthly earnings were less than five times the
minimum wage were supposed to have a savings account with a commercial bank having an
amount of not less than 4 percent of the project value in order to qualify for the project. Through
this program, funds are transferred to housing developers who lower the mortgage debt. This
condition has a two-fold benefit: it promotes private savings and reduces credit risk to private
lenders and increases lending openness. This program subsidizes costs that include down
payments for new and used homes, and costs for construction and improvements that are
sustainable for those who already have homes (CCAP, 2012).
From the Green Mortgage initiative, over 900,000 credit extensions have been effected.
The credit extensions have permitted an average savings of $17 per month on utilities and net
savings of $11 per month after paying for the monthly mortgage. There has also been a reduction
in the energy use owing to the Green Mortgage program of about 700,000 tons of CO2 emissions
per year (Elias & Ritchie, 2008). The program designed for the lower income earners (This is
Your House) has seen 166,000 subsidies amounting to a total value of $420 million (CCAP,
2012).

Discussion
The transformed policy situation in Mexico created a platform where many players were
involved in driving the climate change agenda. This drive was seen in different development
contexts, including the housing sector that was discussed above. The ratification by Mexico’s
federal government of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) was a foundational move, as it set the environment for climate change discussions
and transformation. Other commitments and policies developed after this framework created an
atmosphere that permitted the synergy of economic and social development players to effect
development but also deal with the challenges posed by climate change. Once again, this was
due to the general climate change policy environment that promoted and effected success in
mitigation initiatives championed by different players.

Chile
Chile is located to the southern part of South America and it is a politically stable home
to 17 million people. The country achieved its independence in 1818 and a democratic
government was established in 1932. It has a national income of $164 billion with a per capita
income of $9,470 in 2009 that made World Bank classify it as an upper middle-income,
developing nation (Meyer, 2012). The past two decades have seen substantial improvements in
social and development indicators in Chile through strong economic growth and targeted social
programs, but some challenges still exist. The poverty rate dropped from 38.8 percent in 1989 to
13.7 percent in 2006, but due to the global crisis and the 2010 earthquake, the rate of poverty
rose to 19.4 in 2011 (Meyer, 2012).
Despite this better economic situation, Chile’s policies as reflected in the tax system and
its social and political structures are critiqued for enacting inequality that stands as a

29
http://www.worldhabitatawards.org/winners-and-finalists/project-details.cfm?lang=00&theProjectID=9DA03455-
15C5-F4C0-99170E7D631F50E9

38
considerable challenge to further reducing poverty.30 One of Chile’s economic growth
stimulants is the tourism industry, especially eco-tourism. The change in climate poses a threat to
the sustenance of glaciers, in that if they disappear, then the hikers, backpackers and
mountaineers will stop visiting and this will affect the role of eco-tourism.31 This situation has
pushed the government of Chile to embark on countrywide efforts of mitigating climate change.
In its efforts to minimize the gaseous emissions that further the problem of global
warming, several energy saving programs were instituted by the government of Chile, including
the Chilean Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling, Light Up Good Energy, Subsidy on
Electric Motors, Pre-investment in Energy efficiency and Energy Efficiency Credit Line. These
programs were launched in 2005 and they have shown notable success in saving energy and
thereby reducing emissions (CCAP, 2012). This section briefly discusses the following three
initiatives: Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling, Light Up Good Energy Program and
Energy Efficiency Credit Line.

Energy Efficiency Standards and Labeling Program

This program’s goal was to educate the consumers who use energy appliances on the
energy performance of the appliances they were about to buy by providing energy information
on the labels (Letschert V. E., et. al, 2013). This initiative, which was started by the Chilean
government, placed compulsory regulations for all sellers to make sure their electric products
have metrics that can be useful for product comparison. This regulation included the following
electric products: incandescent and compact fluorescent light bulbs, refrigerators, microwaves,
air conditioning units and televisions (Lutz et. al, 2011).

Light Up Good Energy Program

Under this initiative, the government of Chile bought and distributed compact fluorescent
light bulbs (CFLs) to the most vulnerable 40% of the population. These kinds of bulbs are five
times more efficient than the traditional incandescent bulbs, and households were able to save
25% on their electric utility bills per year. In 2008, the program gave away 1.5 million CFLs and
in the following year (2009) up to early 2010, the total distribution reached 2.9 million CFLs,
costing $8.8 million (CCAP, 2012).

Energy Efficiency Credit Line

The Chilean government with the German Development Bank introduced another energy
saving program in 2008 titled “Energy Efficiency Credit Line.” Created to support energy
efficiency efforts in businesses, it established credit funds to finance various business endeavors
with the aim of saving energy, including machinery procurement, construction equipment, and
assembly and engineering services. Credit was distributed through commercial banks with a $1
million limit and with payments of 2 to 12 years and a grace period of up to 18 months. Among
the beneficiaries of this program in Chile are companies, production cooperatives and
associations with annual net sales of not less than $33 million (CCAP, 2012). This particular
program did not only helped with climate change mitigation, it also strengthened the businesses
by the provision of the capital that allowed these companies to accrue better revenues.
From these programs, Chilean government has made positive strides in achieving
measures that minimize gaseous emissions into the atmosphere by minimizing energy use

30
Chile: Poverty Policies Require Rethink,” Oxford Analytica, October 14, 2010
31
http://climatechangechile.wordpress.com/

39
intensity, achieving a reduction of over 10 percent from 2005 - 2011. In 2008, the net energy
demand in the region of serving over 90% of the population decreased by 1.2 percent even
though there was 3.2 percent of economic growth. Chile’s success in achieving less intensive
energy use with high economic returns has attracted such international attention that in 2010 the
country received an EE Visionary Award that recognizes the globe’s best practices in energy
efficiency policy and implementation (CCAP, 2012).

Policy Environment
The policy environment in Chile permitted the success of energy saving initiatives as
climate change mitigation practices. Climate change policy discussion in Chile dates back to 17
years ago, when in 1996, the National Advisory Committee on Global Change (GNAG), which
was created by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was designed to be an interface where a number
of institutions could use it for debates and advise the government on climate matters. Chaired by
the National Environmental Commission, a working structure, work groups and an agenda of
tasks were formulated for immediate and intermediate terms. Several players from within and
outside of Chile have been part of this initiative to deal with climate change, coming from the
energy commission, meteorological service, oceanographic service, national science and
technology research commission and the academy of science among other entities. One of the
major roles of this committee was to provide direction on matters that deal with climate change
including processes and policies.
In addition, the environmental policy framework permitted strong partnership ties
between the government and the local business owners. Most of the regulations that were
proposed by the government had a bearing on the success of the businesses, making the latter
part of the policy formulation process. Moreover, since 1996, Chile has managed to submit two
communications on the status of climate change in the country; the first one was submitted in
2000 (Country Note on Climate Change, 2009) and the second one was submitted in 2010
(Chile, 2011).

Discussion
The success of the mitigation practices in Chile was not achieved by the businesses only.
Many parties were involved including the government, business owners, donors and the public.
The policy structure in this country permitted this kind of interaction. In addition, the nature of
the policies and their subsequent strategies showed not only the control and command of the
government but also the economic benefit to the business owners and the general public. This
enhanced the relevance of the instituted policies. At the end of it all, the Chilean government
mitigated climate change, people’s lives were improved and businesses thrived; pure social and
economic development!

40
 CHAPTER FIVE

DEVELOPING NATIONS AND CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY

INTRODUCTION
Many studies (Benito Müller, 2002; Dodman, 2009; Kirby, 2008) and international
charters (UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol) clearly point to how developed nations have been at the
forefront in emitting gases into the atmosphere, such as the generation of energy in the US using
coal-fired power plants (Larson, 2012) and energy for domestic use in the UK (Boardman,
2007). Much as these activities are carried out to accelerate development in their specific
countries, they also drastically contribute to the emission of gases which may deter the same
purpose of achieving development because of the effects of climate change that originate in such
emissions. This is not a huge surprise considering that the underpinning of climate change, the
industrial revolution, had developed nations as the initial players. The blame on developed
nations as major culprits is not just coming from their own circles; even developing nations hurl
such accusations at them. For instance, Robert Mugabe, president of Zimbabwe, heaped heavy
blame on developed nation’s leaders in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009. He pleaded with the
delegates from developed nations to act swiftly on their commitment to reduce their gaseous
emissions and also to provide support for developing nations who have engaged the fight against
the effects of climate change with meagre resources.32
Even though these series of arguments will continue to circle around, the fact remains
that climate change effects are felt by everyone including developing nations. In fact, it is
projected that 90% of the anticipated growth in global energy demand will come from the
developing nations in the next 30 years (International Energy Agency, 2010). This projection
frames an anticipation from the rest of the world for the developing nations to be mindful of their
development initiatives. If 90 percent of the needed energy demand will come from the
developing nations, the need to be watchful of climate change cannot be overemphasized;
whether the problem has been created by the developed nations or developing ones, the truth of
the matter is that its problems are affecting the whole world. Even further, development
initiatives by developing nations may exacerbate the current situation. This chapter serves two
purposes: first, to sensitize both developed and developing nations of the challenges coming
from climate change effects confronting developing nations; second, this will help them to
appreciate the need to integrate a climate change agenda in their respective development goals.
To do this, the section explores four economic sectors and articulates the effect of climate change
therein. These four sectors are agriculture, human health, water resources, and energy.

AGRICULTURE
In chapter three, I discussed the situation of food security on a global level, which is very
similar to the impacts on agriculture described in this chapter. The focus here is on the practice
of agriculture and its impact on developing nations, which will set the context for our discussion
of Malawi, the focus of this study, later on.
Many people in developing nations rely on rain–fed agricultural economies. Especially
in Africa, agricultural yields and reliance on natural resources tend to be the support system for
local livelihoods. The effects of climate change and variability presents a horrible fate for crops,
livestock and people’s survival as data shows that almost 9 to 20 percent of the sub-Saharan

32
http://www.newzimbabwe.com/news-1503-Full+Text+Mugabe+Copenhagen+speech/news.aspx

41
Africa’s arable land which is 26 to 60 million hectares is expected to be affected by climate
change especially from severe climate or soil constraints by 2080 (World Bank, 2010). In many
developing nations, several factors including the poor socioeconomic status and climate change
has decreased cereal production in almost 65 nations and a loss of 16 percent of Gross Domestic
Product in other cases has taken place; in general, the cost of producing agricultural products is
projected to be higher than before (Keane et al., 2009).
This pattern appears the same in Latin America and the Caribbean, where studies project
that they need an approximate of 1.3 billion to be used for agricultural research, irrigation
competence, and rural road development. Failure to provide these resources it is projected to
lead to, the following: average yield declines of 6.4 percent for rice, 3 percent for maize, 3
percent for soybean and up to 6 percent of wheat. Without climate change effects like floods and
droughts, calorie intake should increase in the years between 2000 and 2050. If climate change,
among other things, is factored in, food availability will decrease by more than 300 calories per
person, representing a 12 percent decrease resulting in 6.4 million malnourished children by
2050 (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2009).
Climate change and variability influences agriculture in many aspects. Of the many
connections it may have, this discussion identifies two linkages that help illustrate the scientific
link between climate change and the nature of agricultural processes: average temperature
increase and the climate induced gas concentration in the atmosphere. Later on, the discussion
provides examples of these factors.

i. Average temperature increase

As noted above, average temperature increases resulting from climate change affect
agricultural practices in two ways: first, there is a lengthened growing season and the change in
rainfall patterns and amount. In terms of the lengthened growing season, if a crop needs a hot
season before it meets a cool one, there is going to be a delay in production because the hot
season has gone long, and it may also undermine quality. Second, the change in climate also has
the ability to affect the rainfall amount that falls and even the trend in which it falls, due to the
increased rate of precipitation. As the earth continues to get warmer, it results in increased
evapotranspiration. This situation increases the force and the duration of drought in that as the
water evapotranspirates, it exceeds the atmospheric air holding capacity. In turn, the precipitation
rate increases resulting into storms, tropical cyclones, extratropical rain, and generally, increased
moisture (Trainberth, 2011). Increased storms, cyclones, and extratropical rain affect agricultural
practices especially in crops that do not require more water. For example, if there is
overabundance of water supply for maize, it results in poor aeration in the soil that may cause
death to plant’s cells, roots and soil erosion, which ultimately kill the plants and degrades the
quality of the land for cultivation.

ii. Climate-induced Gas Concentration

As noted above as well, the rising of the temperature coming from the change in climate
increases the concentration of gas in the atmosphere. An example of this is ozone gas; when the
temperature is high; its concentration sharply increases (Sindhu, 2011). Ground level ozone
affects the growth of crops or plants by entering plants’ leaves through the stomata, dissolving
into the water in the plants and finding its way into the plant cells. Its entrance in the cells causes
many problems resulting in poor growth of the plant (Sindhu, 2011). As a result, it affects crop
yields, as shown by one study of crops grown where the atmosphere was concentrated with

42
ozone in high temperatures and where dicot species (soybean, cotton, and peanut) were found to
be more sensitive to yield loss than the monocot species (sorghum, field corn and winter
wheat).33
Secondly, since there are high amounts of gases in the atmosphere that trap the heat, the
presence of heat and the gases set up unconducive conditions for the growth of vegetation and
consequently, agriculture. Much as the energy from the sun aids the process of photosynthesis,
too much heat destroys enzymes in plants and disturbs the process of growth. In addition, the
excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere affects the rate of photosynthesis (Sindhu, 2011), as
shown in a study of carbon dioxide and increased temperature (Kobayashi et. al, 2005). The
study showed that plants grown in elevated CO2 were more severely infected with disease than
the ones grown in ambient CO2 because high levels of CO2 disturbs the process of
photosynthesis, which affects its growth and sets the plant in a state of vulnerability. This stunted
growth results because of the disturbance of photosynthesis, the process through which water and
carbon dioxide interact for the plants to produce. If the increase of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere exceeds the required capacity for the plants to photosynthesize, it results in the
slowed rate of growth (Kobayashi et. al, 2005).
The average temperature increase and the climate-induced gas concentrations provide
links between climate change and agriculture. These links have shown how potentially climate
change can affect agriculture in at least three specific ways: food crop prices, food production
and food consumption.

Food Crop Prices

The existence of climate change poses a threat to food crop prices as shown here by two
scenarios; in one scenario estimated the prices of rice, maize and soybeans without the presence
of climate change effects and in the other scenario climate change was taken into account. In the
first scenario, it is estimated that the prices of rice, maize and soybeans would increase by 62
percent, 63 percent and 72 percent respectively between 2000 and 2050, but the second scenario
with the presence of climate change effects, rice price increases with 32 to 37 percent, 52 to 55
percent for maize and soybeans increases with 11 to 14 percent (IFPR, 2009). In addition, though
climate change does not directly affect food animals per say, there is an indirect effect on the
prices of meat because of the effect of climate change on the cost of feed for animals. Pigs’ diets,
for example, are largely made from grain and soybeans. If these are scarce, pigs’ feed prices may
go up and pork products may also bear high prices. That being said, however, climate change is
not the only drive for price increment to food crops, since other variables like population growth
may also affect food crop prices.

Food Production
Food production in this case refers to the frequency and size of harvests farmers will
manage to have in their growing seasons. Numbers show that on average, the annual harvests are
going down and climate change is set as a reason for that especially since the change has birthed
frequent droughts and intensive floods. These situations make farming more risky now than in
the past, a situation that appears to be rampant in developing countries, in particular in Africa
and South Asia. In Asia, food production records especially for rice project a 14 percent decline
in the total harvest and the total yields in Sub-Saharan Africa for rice, wheat and maize have
gone down 15 percent, 34 percent and 10 percent respectively by 2050 (IFPR, 2009). Just in the

33
http://www.ars.usda.gov/Main/docs.htm?docid=12462

43
country of Swaziland, for example, the harvest of the staple food, maize, has dropped by 70%
over a five year period (Oseni & Masalirambi, 2011), resulting from the people’s non-cultivation
of their lands either because of the delayed rainfall or from the high risk of experiencing a loss
from agriculture compounded by the scarcity of seeds for other crops.

Food Consumption
The effects of climate change on food consumption are seen in the volume of people’s
intake of meat products and cereals. It is estimated that between 2000 and 2050, per capita
consumption of meat and cereals will decline with climate change affecting the needed daily
calorie consumption of the people. Projections show that the presence of climate change, among
other factors, will reduce the amount of the available food for consumption, this will lead to low
per capita calorie than without climate change. As demonstrated by South Asia’s, its per capita
calorie will increase from 2424 kcal/day in 2000 to 2660 kcal/day in 2050. If climate change is
considered, per capita calorie per day would be under 2226 which is quite low compared to the
baseline figures captured in 2000 (Dev, 2011).

HEALTH
Chapter Three discussed health implications of climate change and surfaced viral and
infectious diseases and cardiovascular diseases as some of the effects of the change facing the
whole world. As mentioned above, this chapter zeroes in on developing nations, and this
particular section explores the footprints of climate change on the health sector.
It has been a challenge to isolate climate change as the sole cause of an increase in health
problems. Much as it may be one of the factors, its existence with other socioeconomic factors
creates a complexity that makes it difficult to accurately link climate change and variability with
health. Recent studies, however, have managed to deal with this challenge as climatologists and
other scientists have found links between the change in climate and health (WHO, 2003). Three
clear connections are cited here between climate change and health: heat-waves, ozone and food
deficiencies; later on, examples from developing nations are discussed.

Heat-waves
Heat waves are long periods of abnormal hot weather, 34 one of the intensive varied
weather patterns to which people have been increasingly exposed since the industrial era. Much
as people have adjusted to the changes, there is always individual sensitivity to these swings of
weather patterns. The existence of heat waves has become a serious hazard as they are mixed
with humidity and urban air, which is mostly polluted from the industrial activities. As heat
waves increase in their occurrence and strength, cardio-respiratory conditions have increasingly
emerged (WHO, 2003). The polluted air contains carbon dioxide which transforms to carbonic
acid and ends up becoming bicarbonate that easily melts into the plasma in our body. Since not
all of the carbon dioxide ends up in a bicarbonate form, most of it stays as carbonic acid and as
the acidity level increases, the respiratory rate also decreases to minimize the carbon dioxide in
the blood. The normal PH level in our bodies has to be 7.4, and if it is less or more, respiratory
problems occur. Among the many respiratory related diseases caused by this are tuberculosis
(TB), Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), avian influenza, asthma and bronchitis.35

34
http://www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/pdfs/print_heat-waves.pdf
35
http://library.thinkquest.org/03oct/02090/TQEnglish/respiratorysystem.htm

44
Ozone
As mentioned above, one of the air-polluting gaseous emissions resulting from the
burning of fossil fuels for industrial activities is ozone. Ozone is a very reactive molecule
consisting of three atoms made of oxygen (Jackober & Phillips, 2008). It is present in the higher
atmosphere but also at ground level. In the higher atmosphere, it is present naturally and acts to
shield the earth from the sun’s harmful ultraviolet rays. Ground-level ozone is the one that poses
risk. It is formed by the reaction of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides
(Nox) in sunlight. Since sunlight is one of the conditions for its formation, ozone formation is
moderated by weather and climatic factors. The average rising temperature stands to be a major
factor in driving the pollution of air in the atmosphere because it speeds up ozone’s formation
and therefore, enhances its concentration (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2011). Just like the
heat waves, ozone can also affect people’s respiratory systems; it reacts chemically with the
internal body tissues such as those in the lungs and creates inflammation in the airways, which
then affects the respiratory processes. At risk to the presence of ground level ozone are children
for they spend much time outside, active people who exercise outside, the elderly and outdoor
workers (Oconee County, 2004).

Food deficiencies
Though food deficiencies may or may not be treated as a health issue, it is a health
problem when connected to climate change, for the existence of food deficiencies leads to
rampant nutritional challenges, including the existence of under-nutrition because of less dietary
intake. In 2008, 3.5 million people were reported dead from maternal and child under-nutrition.
Also in the same year, 35% of the children’s diseases were closely linked to under-nutrition. In
addition, food consumption inadequacy may exacerbate the vulnerability to different kinds of
diseases (usually infectious) since the body’s protective system is undermined by the low intake
of food (SCN News, 2010).
The three connections between climate change and health just explored - heat-waves,
ozone and food deficiencies - result in three main health issues: the rising rate of infectious
diseases, respiratory diseases, and cases of under-nutrition. While some of the details have been
explored above, what follows is a closer look at each of them.

Rising Rate of Infectious Diseases

One of the connections between health and climate change is heat waves as discussed
above. Since heat waves affect the overall temperature of a particular location, this also has an
effect on the animal or micro-organism’s existence. Epstein (2001) argues that the long term
warming spell and unstable climate are promoting the extension of a variety of infections, and
extreme weather incidents are creating constellations of disease outbreaks and other weather
shocks. Siegesmund, S. & Snethlage (2011) claim that rain events followed by dry spells make
stones become a host to rapidly multiplying black fungi and cyanobacteria. Mirski et al. (2011)
link the emergence of Hantavirus disease, especially coming out of India in 2007, Chikungunya
fever and Dengue fever - the latter increasing since 2004 in Thailand (17 to 43%) followed by
India, Brazil and Indonesia amidst a mixture of long dry spells and heavy rainfalls - to the long
warming experiences caused by climate change. This is because all of the carriers (mosquitoes
and rodents) of these diseases are influenced by climatic conditions. If it is hot or humid, carriers
of the mentioned diseases multiply and infect people with the virus that causes diseases (Mirski
et al., 2011).

45
Respiratory Diseases
Pollution of the air births respiratory diseases. Obviously, pollution of the air is not
identical to climate change, but the reaction of the polluted air with the warmer temperature
linked to climate change breeds respiratory diseases. Along with the increased concentration of
ozone due to the rise of temperatures, air pollution is caused by other factors, including means of
transport. One such example are the “zemidjan,” which means, “Get me quickly,” in the city of
Cotonou in Benin, a two wheeled vehicle taxi that provides transportation to the public with
affordable rates. Zemidjan, however, are mostly old, use unpurified fuel and emit dangerous
gases, including ozone, posing health risks for the drivers, passengers and even the pedestrians
(BOKO, 2003). A study in that country has shown that there has been an increase of temperature
of 10C – 1.50C,36 with a strong correlation between this increase in temperature and the presence
of the gases. This link is evidenced by the cases of respiratory diseases especially common in the
people who use zemidjan. More than 62 percent of the drivers suffer from respiratory diseases
and 11.4 percent of those who rely on this mode of transportation suffer from larynx infections.
The same studies showed that incidence of respiratory illnesses in Cotonou are usually higher
than the areas where zemidjan are not used. In 1995, 1998 and 1999 the city’s respiratory
incidences were double than other areas and connections were made to the polluted air in
Cotonou (BOKO, 2003).

Cases of Under-nutrition
As argued already, distorted rainfall patterns and other climatic occurrences closely
connected to climate change have ripple effects, one of which is under-nutrition, caused by low
diet intake of food that ends into weight loss, growth faltering and lowered immunity. The
situation results in increased and prolonged occurrences of diseases, especially those of
marasmus and kwashiorkor in children (Mengistu et al., 2013). Floods are also a factor in
nutrition, since they may carry away crops in the fields destined to feed people on a massive
scale. In the year 2000, for example, Mozambique was hit by severe floods and approximately
10% of farmland and 90% of irrigation operations were damaged, leaving 1.5 million livelihoods
affected; most of these were in rural areas (McMichael et. al., 2008). As trends of this nature
multiply in poor localities, it leads to no or low harvested amounts of food which in turn creates
situations of hunger in such communities. Consequently, shortage of food in many families leads
to inadequate daily intakes and cases of under-nutrition emerge. Ramin and Michale (2009)
attribute 1.7 million deaths in Africa every year to situations of under-nutrition, which means
that at this stage, the problem ceases to be a climatic one and becomes a health one.

WATER RESOURCES
The effects of climate change on many ecosystems are becoming obvious. Fresh water
resources though, are generally the earliest and the most direct affected entity because of climate
change and variability (Ekstein 2009). In the predictable future, water resources will be an issue
for everyone everywhere in terms of scarcity, caused to a great degree by climate change and
variability (Zellmer & Harder, 2008). Fresh water will also be limited because it is found in only
a small volume for human use, especially since it is naturally and unevenly allocated. Statistics
show that only 2.5 percent of the 1386 million cubic kiloliters of water available on earth is fresh
water. Shockingly, only one-third of this available water is available for human use. Sadly,

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46
though, over the past 50 years, the volume consumed has increased three times and it is expected
to accelerate to the point that studies advise that 20 to 60 percent of the water we have should be
conserved to maintain an effective ecosystem and to make sure that natural resources are
sustained (Sharma & Bharat 2009). This situation clearly highlights the importance of rainfall in
that it replenishes these water sources to sustain human survival.
The change in climate, however, affects the pattern of rainfall. The change in climate
increases or decreases precipitation, the process of water vapor changing form and size through
collision and coalescence ending up into larger particles that give way to the force of gravity and
fall in form of rain, snow, hail, etc. (Arnell, 2009). Apart from precipitation being a determinant
on the amount of rain, it also determines the amount of snow cover. If there is less precipitation,
the snow cover is smaller and when there is high precipitation, a larger snow cover results.
Finally, the smaller the amount of rainfall resulting from low precipitation, the less the volume of
water received; the bigger the amount of rainfall because of high precipitation, the bigger the
volume of water. A paradoxical reality exists in these two truths: less water volume results in the
scarcity of water for human survival and high water volume sometimes ends up into floods,
which affect human survival as well. This section reviews two situations that translate this truth
in relation to water resources: reduction in runoff and water quality.

Reduction in runoff
Runoff is the process of surface water that fails to infiltrate or evaporate, going into water
reservoirs like dams, lakes or rivers. A decreased runoff essentially means decreased levels of
water in these reservoirs. Less rainfall results in a bigger percent of the water being infiltrated
and some of it lost through evapotranspiration; this leads to less or non-runoff water. The
Zambezi River is an illustration of a problematic runoff situation. Due to the decreased
precipitation of 15 percent, it has experienced water loss through evaporation of 15 to 25 percent
and reduced runoff of 30 – 40 percent.37 In another example, Zimbabwe, due to the reduction in
runoff, saw is volume of stored water resources decrease to less than 10 percent of the installed
capacity in the 1991 to 1992 drought experience (Magadza, 1996).

Water Quality
Reduced precipitation results in reduced water storage which eventually affects the
availability of water. The opposite truth of this point is that increased precipitation results in an
overabundance of water, which may be a good thing, but in other circumstances, it may be a bad
thing. Overabundant supplies of water require strong storage facilities, which many developing
nations do not have, and the absence of these facilities means that large volumes of water are lost
rather than preserved, leading to cases of water scarcity in the times of long dry spells. These
situations force people to use contaminated and untreated water; it is through this that mortality
cases prevail. In developed nations, on the other hand, cases of flood-related water-borne
diseases are kept under control through water and sanitation services (McMichael et al., 2003).
Sadly, this is not the case with developing nations where most countries do not have good water
and sanitation services. Disease cases rising from this setting can be an environmental health
issue, but the root cause of such diseases is the less quality of water and/or the absence of it.
Studies show that one third of urban water supplies in Africa, Latin America, Caribbean, and
over half of Asia are surviving sporadically during the seasons of droughts (IPCC, 2007) and this
hugely affects water quality as well as its supply.

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 Out of the 1 billion people living in Africa, 341 million lacked access to clean drinking
water and 589 million people did not have adequate sanitation in 2009 due to drought and flood
events which are linked to climate change. Even further, 75 percent of Africa’s drinking water is
sourced from the groundwater that is usually consumed with little or no purification at all
(PACN, 2010). A lower precipitation rate caused by climate change translates into less rainfall,
leading to low levels of groundwater that end up forcing people to rely on untreated
groundwater, which continually brings a variety of health problems. No wonder, then, that
estimates show that almost half of all patients in African hospital beds suffer from water-borne
illnesses because of the failure to access clean water.

ENERGY
Another area that is hit by climate change effects is the energy sector. This is critical in
Africa where many countries rely on unstable hydroelectric power. For instance, Kenya,
Tanzania, Zambia and Uganda’s electricity is hydro powered by 70, 58, 93 and 65% respectively
(African Energy Commission, 2008). Variations of precipitation rate affect the hydro-electric
generation as more rainfall cause floods that usually deposit sand and unnecessary particles into
the machinery, affecting the process of power generation. In addition, if there is less rainfall,
there is less water to generate electricity which affects the amount of power needed for the
household use, and the general economy, that can be generated
Since in many developing nations dams are the biggest source of hydro-power, water
levels in many reservoirs are the most determinant factor for effective production of energy.
Usually, lower water levels than the minimum results in failure of energy production; as such,
consistency of the recommended water levels in the dams stands to be the utmost reliable factor
in ensuring the production of energy. Water levels in these dams, however, rely on climatic
factors, such as the amount of rainfall, but, several dry spells experienced by the continent of
Africa from the early 1990s to the present years, traced to climate change, has affected water
levels in these reservoirs. This section looks at the effect of less rainfall on lakes, rivers and dams
and the further implication of these low levels on energy generation as cases from Ghana,
Ethiopia and Uganda demonstrate.

Ghana
The energy situation in Ghana is generally poor. About 60 percent of Ghana’s energy
consumption comes from traditional biomass, and of the available electricity, 85 percent is
produced by hydro power plants with a national electricity grid reaching 55 percent of the
population (Country Report, 2006). Since the reliance on energy is largely on hydropower,
climate change effects in the form of droughts observed over the large part of the African
continent has not spared Ghana. In 2007, the Akosombo Dam in the country had water levels fall
below the minimum level of 240 feet. This situation heavily affected the production of electricity
and forced the country to load-shed - the temporal switching-off of distribution of energy to
different geographical areas as a way of reducing demand on the energy generation system - the
entire nation (AFRE-PREN, 2009). This implied an economic loss not to mention a health hazard
for those in hospitals and in other vulnerable situations.

Ethiopia
In Ethiopia, biomass energy is also widely used - approximately 90 percent comes from

48
that source - because it is readily accessible and affordable.38 Hydro-energy, however, constitutes
the source of 86 percent of the available electricity in the country, largely from eight hydropower
plants that are in operation (Japan Report, 2008). The other 10 percent is supplied by other
energy sources, such as solar. In the years 2006 to 2007, Ethiopia went through a period of
massive load shedding caused by the low water levels in most of the 8 hydro dams due to the
seasons of droughts. While the initial projection of these power cuts was for once a week,
electricity users ended up experiencing power loss for 15 to 48 hours a week for more than 6
months (Karekezi & Kithyome, 2005).

Uganda
Just as the two countries discussed above, the majority of people in Uganda use the
traditional biomass energy because of the same reasons of affordability and availability.
Uganda’s energy profile shows that biomass energy constitutes the source of 93 percent and
hydro-energy, which supplies the country’s electricity, provides 1 percent of the total energy.
Even though electricity has a small grid, climate change effects such as drought cripples its
supply even further (Baanabe, 2008).
Between 2004 and 2006, for example, the country’s water levels in Lake Victoria
declined to 10.4 meters, far below the norm of 11.5 meters, leading to a decrease in hydro-
electric generation by over 100 megawatts (CIGI, 2009). The change in the water levels in the
lake, and the corresponding fall in the hydro-electricity generation, suggests the connection with
the drought experienced in this period attributed to climate change. The loss of the generated
power resulted in load shedding and affected the country’s economic growth. As a reaction to the
energy deficits, the electricity tariff was raised by more than 96 percent in 2006 (Baanabe, 2008),
and the GDP growth rate dropped from 6.2 to 4.9 percent in that 2005/2006 fiscal year (MEMD,
2006).

CONCLUSION
The fragility of many developing nation’s economies’ sectors intensify the effects of
climate-related disasters. This has been seen in agriculture, water resources, health and energy.
One effect of a climate shock trickles down to another. For instance, the rise in precipitation
affects the rainfall pattern which translates into floods, which then affect the energy sector.
Responses to these situations should not isolate cases and sectors, but a more integrated approach
should be adopted to deal with these challenges. Adaptation practices, as shown in the previous
chapter, are one of the few ways that can provide the foundation for integrated initiatives to curb
climate change effects. To do that, an in-depth understanding of specific climatic issues is
needed to permit customized responses as a foundation to achieve efficiency and effectiveness in
countries faced with global warming, as demonstrated by a study on Malawi in the next chapter.

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 CHAPTER SIX

MALAWI AND CLIMATE CHANGE

INTRODUCTION
The second chapter gave a historical background of climate change arguments displaying
two opposing sides in the Enlightenment era. Over the years, those who argued for the existence
of climate change have made strong strides in framing their claim, wooing people to their side. In
showing situations that correlates with the former’s views, Chapter Three explored the claimed
effects of climate change across the world, and instances were picked to show the reality of this
phenomenon. Efforts to show the magnitude of these climate change effects were explored in
Chapter Four by looking at the global responses to the threat of climate change; how adaptation
and mitigation currently stand as the preferred strategies to deal with it. In the previous chapter,
Five, this paper shifted from the global implications and realities to focus on developing nations
in the light of existing challenges of the effects of climate change that were explored in terms of
the following economic sectors: agriculture, health, water resources and energy. This chapter
examines the implications of the effects of climate change in Malawi. Before the actual
exploration of these issues, a look at the economic situation of Malawi is helpful since it will
show how the country might absorb the climate change agenda in its development goals. In
short, if Malawi is to effectively respond to the challenges of climate change effects by either
adaptation or mitigation, its economic status has to give it the ability to do so.

Malawi’s Economic Situation

Malawi’s economy is driven by agriculture even as other sectors such as mining and
service are becoming strong as well. On a small scale, the country is able to export tobacco, tea,
sugar and lately, uranium and this is how it manages to earn foreign exchange. Between 2001
and 2012, Malawi has been experiencing trade deficits, in other words, imports have always been
more than exports, and the country does not have the ability to use the imports to create a
productive base for the economy; as such, financial gaps in the economy are usually filled up by
donors.39 Malawi registered an average GDP growth of 7.1 percent in the period between 2006
and 2010, upheld by good macroeconomic management and better crop output. In 2011,
however, the growth slowed down to 4.3 percent because of the following three reasons:
shortage in foreign exchange caused by rising import bills, sharp successive declines in tobacco
export sales and the suspension of foreign aid discussed further below.
First, in 2006 Malawi started the Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) which among other
things provided fertilizers to the subsistence farmers to improve their agricultural output. The
program, using loans from the donor community, imported high volumes of fertilizer and this
incurred huge import costs for the government, implying a long term of debt servicing. Second,
in 2010, Malawi experienced a drop in its export earnings because of the unfavorable trade
conditions for tobacco globally, the country’s largest export earning product. This affected the
flow of foreign currency in the country as it did not accrue its usual revenue because of the lower
prices offered on the international market. Third, in 2010 and 2011 big donors suspended their
aid to Malawi due to its poor governance and disrespect of human rights; in all, almost 40
percent of the support the country gets was suspended indefinitely. In addition, since 2010, IMF
and World Bank pressured the nation to devalue its currency because they thought it did not

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50
reflect its true value, in other words, it was expensive in comparison to the international market
standards, but the government resisted. In sum, the recurring debt Malawi was servicing from the
purchase of fertilizer, the lower revenue from tobacco and the indefinite suspension of aid
created a situation in which foreign currency was in short supply. As a result, foreign investors
declined from investing in Malawi creating even further, a deficient of foreign exchange.
In 2012, following the death of Dr. Bingu Wa Muthalika, Joyce Banda became the
president of Malawi, bringing reforms to some of the policies the previous administration had
implemented. For example, she gave in to the donors’ demands and devalued the currency,
(Kwacha) by 50 percent; adopted a floating exchange rate and instituted an automatic adjustment
mechanism of petroleum products retail prices (IMF Country Report, 2013). The devaluation
was expected to make exports cheaper, attracting many foreign players to do business with
Malawi to reduce the deficit in the nation’s current account. In addition, it was thought these
changes would increase demand of Malawi’s products; as such, the cheaper exports and the
increased demand should have resulted in better rates of economic growth. Though the
expectation was optimistic, the devaluation of the Kwacha did not bring in substantial
improvements in its foreign exchange reserve. With this background, the economy was not doing
well and the cost of living rose to unbearable levels as shown by its consumer price index (CPI)
inflation that skyrocketed because of the reasons stated above. In June 2013, the inflation rate
was at 27.9 percent but an average of the first five months of 2013 was 35 percent. The economic
experts in the country, project a slow economic recovery due to the correctly priced currency
(Kwacha) in comparison with the market value and its free floating exchange rate on the
international scene (KPMG, 2013). A brief exploration of the issues affecting Malawi’s economy
leads us to look at the country’s economic sectors to understand their contributions to the
economy and ascertain how climate change agenda may be synchronized with these sectors.

Malawi’s Economic Sectors

Malawi’s economy is largely based on agriculture. However, there are other economic
sectors of importance that deserve some attention, and this section gives a brief overview of three
main ones: agriculture, service and industry sectors.
Agriculture has been the largest contributor to Malawi’s GDP contributing 32 percent of
the nation’s GDP, with 60 percent of this coming from tobacco (African Economic Outlook,
2011). The majority of Malawi’s population (80%) lives in the rural areas and earns a living
through subsistence farming. Although the bigger percentage of the population relies on
subsistence farming, only 10 – 15% manages to sell some of their products in a given year
(World Bank, 2009). The country’s reliance on a rain fed agriculture subjects the masses to food
insecurities because of the present challenges of droughts and floods. Even though the economy
is agrarian and water bodies constitute one-third of the total land mass, there is low
diversification of crops (CERT, 2012) and low irrigation initiatives. During 2004 and 2005, the
country experienced severe droughts that left many people without food and led to a huge costly
humanitarian response to provide food to 40 percent of the population (Malawi FTF Multi –
Year Strategy, 2012).
The second largest contributor to the country’s GDP, accounting for 24 percent, is the
service industry which includes hotel industry and restaurants, tourism and communication
(Country Strategy Paper, 2013). In the period between 2007 and 2009, the sector generated a
growth rate of 8.9 percent and the biggest stimulant of this growth came from the contribution of
the information and communication service subsectors; the latter contributing an annual growth

51
of 22.4 percent, which consisted primarily of mobile telephone and radio services (ADBG,
2011).
The third major contributor to the nation’s economy is the industry sector, contributing
16% to the country’s GDP; between 2007 and 2009, it registered a 6.9% growth rate, and grew
by 21.3 percent in 2010. Drivers for this growth are the mining and construction sub-sectors,
both with an estimated growth of 7.9 in 2007; they also showed 19.9% and 52.3% growth in
2009 respectively. The hydroelectric gas and water subsectors grew by 4.7% between 2007 and
2009 and, in general, the utilities’ sub-sector showed a growth of 6.7% in 2010. Though the
figures displayed above signify growth in the industry sector, that sub-sector is generally poor,
insufficient to support the growth of manufacturing and mining industries (ADBG, 2011).
The discussion above has briefly reviewed the major economic sectors that drive the
economy of Malawi to provide the context of the socio-economic conditions of the country. The
next discussion takes some of these sectors, and a few additional ones, to examine the links with
the effects of climate change. These sectors are agriculture, health, water resources and energy.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY IN MALAWI

AGRICULTURE
Agricultural production in Malawi has two distinct types: small and large-scale holders.
Small-scale production occurs on small pieces of land usually less than 1 hectare while large-
scale holders produce on land not less than 10 hectares; these kinds of production are also called
estates (Fitch & Carvalho, 1991). Since 1964 to 1977, the country registered an annual GDP
growth of 5.5 percent driven by large-holder agriculture and the period saw estate agriculture
grow at 17 percent while the small holder agriculture was at 3 percent (Harrigan, 2003).
Establishment of estates goes back to the colonial era when the government allowed European
settlers to acquire freehold estate, which is the total ownership of the land for the production of
cash crops such as tea and tobacco. After independence, the government placed restrictions on
freeholds and opted for leasehold estate, which is the temporary ownership of the land for the
same purpose of growing cash crops (Fitch & Carvalho, 1991). Though estate agriculture had the
privilege of temporal or permanent ownership of land, smallholder farmers do not actually own
land; the land they use is regulated by the customary law which is public land and therefore, it
belongs to the government. In comparing these two models, estate farming was more efficient
than small holder agriculture because of their initial setting and other surrounding factors
discussed below.

Agricultural Setting and other factors

First, Malawi pursued an outward-oriented agricultural development policy which
stipulated that the nation should be exporting agricultural products to stimulate export-led
economic growth strategy. With this arrangement, the government identified the small holder
farmers as producers of staple food for the country while the large scale sector was responsible to
produce food for exporting; this organization favored the latter and thus it became successful. In
pursuit of this policy, estates were given export marketing privileges; as an example, all the
small holder farmers were restrained from growing or selling outside the country any cash crops
such as tobacco, cotton, sugar, groundnuts, etc. and only allowed to grow staple food like maize
or rice. All of this was enshrined in the Tobacco and Special Act of 1972. As such, the total

52
exports from estates accounted for 70 percent of the total national exports (Fitch & Carvalho,
1991).
Second, many small holder farmers, finishing their farm preparations and care quickly,
rushed to secure employment offered by the estate farmers because they needed additional
income apart from the subsistent food they produced. The availability of people looking for
farming jobs in estates made labor cheap, working to the advantage of estate owners (Fitch &
Carvalho, 1991). It was also rumored that the government deliberately provided less land to
small holder farmers to farm in order to export labor to South Africa and earn other revenue.
Even though the small holder sector was disadvantaged, it provided 80 percent of food
production of the whole nation.
Third, transportation needed to engage in international trade was favorable for Malawi.
The country used the rail line that connected to Nacala and Beira in Mozambique and it turned to
be a cheaper option to export these crops.40 Export agriculture, which is the practice of growing
crops and exporting them to outside countries, drove the economic growth of Malawi in the
1960s and 1970s. Due to the war that broke up in Mozambique in the fight for independence,
Nacala and Beira, the most convenient routes, became impassable because of the shootings
happening due to the war.41 In addition, around the 1970s, oil prices rose on the international
scene, increasing the challenges of export agriculture because of the corresponding increase in
transportation costs that was affecting business globally.
Malawi’s choice of an outward-oriented agricultural development policy and the
subsequent preference of estates ignored the smallholder agriculture. Alongside this policy, other
policies which were instituted such as prohibiting small holder farmers from producing and
marketing high value crops like tobacco, monopolizing the marketing of all smallholder inputs
and crops through the national board – Agricultural Development and Marketing Corporation
(ADMARC) - compounded the challenges of the smallholder sector.
ADMARC is a Malawian board which was formed in 1971 by the Malawi government; it
existed to market agricultural inputs and outputs; in addition, it facilitated the effectiveness of
smallholder agricultural sector through marketing activities and various investments in agro-
industry.42 The board supplied smallholder agricultural inputs and purchased their crops at a
fixed price, and barred smallholder farmers to access credit from the commercial banks, which
crippled smallholder agriculture (Minot et al, 2001). Due to this unfavorable policy environment
for the smallholder sector, communal land areas declined from 8.2 to 7.1 million hectares due to
the expansion of leasehold estates and public lands for national parks (Minot et al, 2001). In
relation to the interaction of smallholder and large holder scales of agriculture, Malawi’s
agricultural model has gone through three stages identified as estate, decline and stagnation
discussed below.

Three phases of Agricultural model in Malawi

Since the 1960s, the agricultural production model in Malawi bears three distinct phases:
estate, decline, and stagnation. The estate period covers those years from 1960 to 1979 when
estates produced crops to export and the smallholder scale farmers produced for local
consumption while offering cheap labor to estate owners. Export agriculture as defined above
was doable because of better transportation of the Nacala and Beira routes in Mozambique.

40
http://www.unctad.info/upload/TAB/docs/TechCooperation/malawi_study.pdf
41
Ibid.
42
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53
These years witnessed a growth of 17% of estate farming and 3% of smallholder production (Lea
& Hunner, 2009).
The second phase of agriculture termed as “the decline” took place in the years 1979 to
1989. This was the period in which the export agriculture faced challenges related to the rise of
oil price of the seventies which affected many African economies including South African. As
South Africa’s prices in commodities fell, the demand for migrant labor from Malawi dwindled
which affected Malawi’s revenue. In addition, railway lines that provided affordable
transportation to reach Nacala and Beira were blocked due to the war in Mozambique. This
forced the agricultural board in Malawi (ADMARC) to incur financial losses, which meant that
food items became expensive and the general cost of living significantly increased in part due to
the inadequacy of smallholder production (Harrigan, 2003).
Phase three (1990 to 2002) witnessed the stagnation of agricultural production. This was
the time when smallholder agriculture was shifting from subsistence farming that only grew
staple food like maize and rice to grow cash crops like tobacco, cotton, tea, sugar, etc. produced
to export to other countries. Some reforms were instituted such as the removal of the Tobacco
and Special Act of 1972, which permitted smallholder farmers to grow cash crops, and cash in on
them. These reforms led to smallholder farmers producing 70% of the tobacco that was supposed
to be grown by estate farmers. The removal of the Tobacco and Special Act of 1972 and the
increased production of cash crops by smallholder farmers should have translated into a vibrant
agricultural production and the improved state of economic development. Contrarily, this was
not the case; the country’s export agriculture faced huge macro-instability factors and the
exacerbation of external shocks such as the suspension of all Western non-humanitarian aid in
1992 and 1993 and the influx of Mozambican war to which we now turn.
First, the violation of human rights by the government, such as the arrest of Chakufwa
Chihana for constitutionally demanding a referendum for the country, irked Western donors who
froze their aid on non-humanitarian needs (Emmanuel, 2013). Donations were only given in
response to disasters such as the 1992 and 1994 droughts and not to the national budget as
usually was the case. The withdrawal of the national budgetary support and the droughts of 1992
and 1994 affected the country’s economy as seen in the annual contraction of the economy by
7.33 percent, the worst since 1964 and the devaluation of the Malawi Kwacha by 22 percent; in
addition, inflation reached a high of 83 percent in 1995 (Emmanuel, 2013). Second, the war in
Mozambique led many people to seek refuge in Malawi and as the number of refugees increased,
it exerted pressure on the stagnant economy of the country. In addition, the blocking of the
transportation to Nacala and Beira in Mozambique had a long term effect on Malawi’s export
trade; the increased harvests by the smallholder farmers were faced with pricy transportation
costs that reduced the farmers’ profit margin. These situations greatly affected the smallholder’s
agricultural production and, ultimately, affected the country’s economy. In sum, the suspension
of Western non-humanitarian and the influence of the Mozambican war defeated the efforts of
agricultural growth. In addition to all of these reasons, climate change also had an effect: in 1992
and 1994, for example, there was a series of famine and droughts that hampered crop production
(Harrigan, 2003). It is to these causes that we now turn.

Current situation
During all of these three phases, agriculture has been a backbone of the economy of
Malawi even amidst the challenges. Currently, not much has changed; most people in Malawi
(80%) live in remote areas and rely on subsistence farming for their survival. This truth is

54
reflected in the fact that agriculture makes up almost 90% of the export revenue and contributes
about 30% to Malawi’s GDP (Kaunda & Mtalo 2013) but most of these exports come from estate
farmers since 70 percent of the total growing land is devoted to maize production to ensure food
security rather than exports. That being the case, the weather-related shocks, appear to be more
rampant and analysis of these shocks links them to the existence of climate change.43
There are no studies that provide empirical evidence of the existence of climate change in
Malawi. Most policies and national strategies that identify climate change as a cross-cutting issue
only jump to a conclusion that there must be impacts from climate change rather than providing
scientific evidence of the change. For instance, the National Energy Policy (2003), National
Environmental Policy (2004), and National Water Policy (2005) make no mention of its
existence, only of its impacts. In addition to aforementioned policies, the Malawi Development
Growth Strategy I and II (2006 – 2011; 2012 – 2016), Malawi Recovery Economic Plan (2012),
National Environment and Climate Change Communication Strategy (2012), and the latest
National Climate Change Policy only point to the impacts of climate change. The case for
climate change, however, is only validated by referring to weather-related shocks, as described in
the next paragraph.
As noted above, weather related shocks include uncertain rainfall pattern, with low rainfall
leading to droughts and more rains end into floods; these shocks may destroy crops and lead to
hunger. Hess & Syroka (2005) define low rainfall as that which is falling below 75 percent of the
long-term (40-year) average recorded at each weather station. Based on this definition, drought
has taken place in Malawi in 1996, 1997, 2000, 2004, and 2005, with severe ones in the years
2000, 2004 and 2005 (World Bank, 2006) but those that had severe impacts on crops took place
in the following crop seasons 1991/92, 1993/94, 2003/04, and 2004/05 (Pauw et. al., 2010). In
2002, between 500 and 1000 people died of hunger or hunger-related diseases and about 4.7
million people out of the 12 million population experienced food shortages in 2005 (Menon,
2007). Occurrences of droughts and floods as shown in the statistics above, enhances
discussions that link them to climate change effects. Even more, they gain credence by being
associated with the empirical evidence of such incidents championed by IPCC.

HEALTH
As noted above, climate change can be directly or indirectly linked to averse human
health. In Malawi, the link between health and climate change is very indirect since the health
sector itself is in bad shape due to different factors. As such, some of the seemingly health-
related climate change issues may not necessarily be climate but rather social and economic.
That being said, health links to climate change exist in Malawi and the relationship with human
health worries the general public, health sector experts, policy makers and ultimately, political
players, especially the effects of floods and droughts. The rainy season of 2001/2002 in Malawi,
for example experienced inadequate rain that was later defined as a causing a drought that
ushered multitudes of people into severe hunger. This condition caused inadequate daily food
intake and children were the worst affected, resulting in high levels of malnutrition among under
five children. Following this situation a nutrition program was instituted and it enrolled 9100
children who had cases of malnutrition connected to the abject hunger caused by the drought
(Phiri, 2008). In another example, in 2012 the district of Nsanje in the southern region of Malawi
experienced floods which washed away 550 pit latrines, killed one child and infected 103 people

43
http://www.usaidlandtenure.net/sites/default/files/country-profiles/full-
reports/USAID_Land_Tenure_Malawi_Profile.pdf

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with cholera.44
My proposition is that if Malawi and other developing countries had better economic-
social infrastructure, these problems might be non-existent or pose no threat to human health.
Therefore, climate change per se may not necessarily stand as the culprit to such adverse human
health cases, but tends to absorb the blame and becomes a worrisome phenomenon.
In fact, as stated above, the health sector in Malawi is in bad shape, ranging from the lack
of qualified personnel to proper infrastructure. The World Health Organization (2003), for
example, prescribes that the ratio of doctors, nurses, and midwives to the people they attend to be
2.3 per 1000. Malawi is very far from meeting this prescription; it was estimated that there were
fewer than 4000 doctors, nurses, and midwives attending to an estimated 12 million people
(Manafa et al., 2009). On average, the number of nurses in health centers across the nation is 1.9.
In 10 of the 26 districts in Malawi, the Ministry of Health has only one medical doctor, and four
other districts do not have a doctor at all; even worse, there are fewer than 1.5 nurses per facility
in fifteen districts (USAID, 2011).
These statistics suggest that many health facilities operate in many situations without a
doctor and, even more worrisome, in other situations they operate with fewer trained health
personnel. Health as a service industry relies on qualified people but apparently, there are not
enough personnel in the health industry in Malawi, or such qualified personnel are concentrated
in cities. These statistics present two results: first, the health system does not have the ability to
be proactive in cases of perceived weather related diseases; and second, it does not have the
ability to be more effective and efficient in reacting to the health related casualties and diseases
that come after the weather shocks. A painful truth is that climate change continues to be a
challenge to the whole nation and in combination with the handicapped state of the health sector
in Malawi presents even more danger, as explored below.

Current situation
The argument of climate change effects on health cites the occurrences of droughts and
floods as causes that bring about deaths of many people, which results in the impairment of the
economy and destruction of the infrastructure of Malawi. In 1989 for example, more than 400
people died from flash floods and this figure increased in 1991 when over 1000 deaths were
recorded. Because of the droughts as well, in 1992 and 1997, many reliable rivers dried up
(Njewa, 2006). The drying of the rivers and occurrences of droughts and floods set up hazardous
situations for people from too much or lack of water and corresponding diseases like bilharzia
and cholera.
The UN reported that in the growing season of 2001/02, Malawi experienced heavier
rains than normal. There was flooding and water-logging and this affected more than 500,000
people and 40, 000 hectares of crops. Many conversations on this unusual rainfall point fingers at
environmental factors as the cause. By the end of that huge rainfall, cholera cases increased. In
Nkhotakota, for example, one of the districts in the central region, in a period of 6 months, 483
cases arose and 16 deaths were recorded, involving an average of 10 cases of cholera every week
(Njewa, 2006).
As cases of cholera arise because of the floods, another indicator of climate change,
droughts, is also a concern in relation to the nation’s status on health. For example, the National
Statistics Office in 2008 estimated that 49% of children under the age of five may be clinically
malnourished or stunted. While this shocking statistic would seem to bring to the surface the

44
http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/02/malawi-cholera-in-a-time-of-floods/

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malfunction of the socio-economic development structure in Malawi, the report claims these
numbers are a result of the vulnerability towards climatic conditions (GoM, 2011). The second
communication of the situation of climate change in Malawi filed with the United Nations
Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has a similar analysis. It gives food security as one
of the causes of under-nutrition, but claims that it has been exacerbated by climate change. In
short, while under-nutrition in Malawi results from a lack of food security, this lack may be
primarily a problem that involves the sociocultural economic structure of Malawi. The
government insists on placing the blame on the claimed effects of climate change such as floods
and droughts. Though under – nutrition may be caused by the occurrences of floods and droughts
it may also, however, result from low food production, poor child feeding and care practices,
poor food processing and utilization, and cultural beliefs that sideline women and children from
eating high nutritive food (Gom, 2011).

WATER RESOURCES
Malawi is benefited with several natural water sources, and is home to three lakes; Lake
Malawi, which is the third largest freshwater lake in Africa and covers 28750 km2; Lake
Malombe, covering 303 km2 (it is an inflation of Shire River); and Lake Chilwa, which covers
683 km2 and it is an inland basin lake. Apart from these, the country has other sources of water
such as dams, rivers and springs, and the natural water systems in Malawi occupy 21 percent of
the total surface of the land (National Water Policy, 2007). Though the country boasts such a
great water resource, it does not use them well, as is the case with other developing countries.
Statistics show that only 42.6 and 88.6 percent of the rural and urban population respectively
manage to access safe drinking water (Scotland and Malawi Report, 2009). Moreover, these
resources are climate sensitive, as shown by the 0.2 to 0.70C increase in warmth in Lake Victoria
and Lake Malawi since the 1900s (Majule, 2010). In addition, the intensity of droughts and
floods lead to dangerous cases of flooding of Lake Malawi and its outlet, the Shire River, having
become more common in the present (Kumambala & Ervine, 2010). The reality of this is present
in the Lower Shire Valley region that has been transformed with a perennial pattern of floods,
with corresponding damages, due to the high levels of water experienced in the lake. In 2008
during the rainy season, 32,000 people were affected by floods (Kumambala & Ervine, 2010). In
general, therefore, livelihoods rely on water resources in Malawi, which in turn rely on the
natural sources, but changes in climate have thwarted this reliance. This results in a detriment to
the availability of clean water, and fish.

Cases of Scarcity of Water and Fish

Water supply in Malawi is generally taken up in its majority by arable agriculture, which
constitutes 71 percent of use as compared to domestic needs which makes up 19 percent. The
importance of this supply is seen in its contribution to both hydropower, domestic consumption
and agriculture. In total, all the water resources provide 96 percent of the national energy
production and irrigation water for the southern Malawi (GoM, 2003). In terms of the latter, it is
estimated that while almost 28,000 hectares are being irrigated in Malawi, the country has the
possibility of irrigating 100,000 ha, and another 200,000 ha could be used for small-scale
irrigation in the dambo45 areas (Mloza-Banda, 2006).

45
These are grassland locations that are seasonally flooded or have high water tables and they prevent the growing
of trees.

57
 Occurrences of floods and droughts in Malawi hinder the maximization of irrigation
agriculture; as seen above, they are linked to climate change and variability. Floods wash away
even those areas that can be perfect for irrigation and droughts affect the available water to be
pumped to other places. Droughts strongly affect water supply to both urban and rural
communities. The 1991 and 1992 national drought, for instance, led to the drying up of many
rivers, dams and other water reservoirs. This resulted in the scarcity of the water supply and it
affected personal hygiene causing many cases of bloody diarrhea and cholera during the drought
(GoM, 2003). In southern and central Malawi, severe droughts have been recursively affecting
communities, almost 8.5 million people between 2002 and 2007; even worse, five hundred
people died due to drought – related situations (Natural Hazard Center, 2009).
Floods and droughts also affect the availability of fisheries products because of their
effect on water resources on which these rely, especially the large lakes. The biggest lake in
Malawi, Lake Malawi, contributes 40 – 60% of the total fish in the country, while Lake Chilwa
contributes 10 – 30% and Lake Chiuta contributes 1 – 3%. Droughts, which result in the drying
up or low levels of the water in these lakes, affect the presence of fish in these water reservoirs.
For instance, the dry – up of the lake Chilwa in 1915, 1924, 1966 – 67, and 1993 – 94 resulted in
diminished fish biodiversity where 13 fish species were reduced to only 3 species. In addition,
the drought of 1993 – 94 dried almost 60% of the available fishponds. These extinctions lead to a
scarcity of food, more precisely to a scarcity of protein, to which fish production contributes
between 60 – 70% of Malawi’s animal supply (GoM, 2003).

ENERGY
The energy sector in Malawi is small and shallow institutionally and in its activities. The
department of Energy and Affairs (DoEA) manages the Ministry of Natural Resources, Energy
and Environment (MNREE). This sector oversees grid-electricity and biomass energy, the latter
of which includes the use of firewood for cooking which is used by the majority of people (97%)
in Malawi. For grid – electricity, Malawi has two further key institutions. The first one is the
Malawi Electricity Regulatory Authority (MERA), which is only 10 years old, and some of its
activities include providing oversight of generation, transmission and the retailing of the
electricity within the national grid as well as exercising power over the off-grid generation of
power. The second institution is the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), a
government corporation. It is responsible for generation, distribution and retailing of electricity
and it owns all the main power plants and the national transmission grid in Malawi. It has less
power, however, over the off-grid electricity generation. There are also other institutions and
private actors in the off-grid electricity zone and other non-governmental organizations, whose
efforts at this point are minimal (Davis et al., 2011).
Unfortunately, most Malawians cannot access modern energy services for household use
and for small enterprises for they cannot afford its costs. Most people, therefore, rely on biomass
energy, with many families in the rural locations depending on firewood for almost all of their
cooking needs and most urban households rely on using charcoal. Less than 10% of the total
population of 15 million people can afford modern energy and these are usually situated in
towns, because less than 1% of those living in the rural area can afford it, a dire situation in that
the vast majority of Malawians, 80%, live in the rural areas. Overall, biomass energy constitutes
98% of the household energy, and it accounts for 88% of the nation’s energy as a whole
(Johnson, 2013).
Though the use of biomass by many families may seem cheap and affordable for the most

58
part, it is a huge, long term expense for the country, and has resulted in the removal of forest
cover in Malawi. In the 1960s, over half of the land was forested, with that going down to 45%
and 41% by 1972 and 1990 respectively. Projections showed that by 2010, it would diminish to
34 percent (MFNR, 1993), but there has not been a forest resource mapping and biomass
assessment lately to verify the projections (Johnston, 2013). If the projections were accurate, this
is a worrying situation because more removal of the forest cover implies more vulnerability to
climatic shocks like floods or droughts.
This happens in two ways. First, floods are severe in places where there are no ground
covers like trees to minimize the force of running water, and droughts on the other hand result in
the availability of little water for the survival of forest cover which is a vital element in the
hydrological cycle. This cycle is the process by which water circulates to be available to human
life; the absence of forest cover means low evaporation, which affects the amount of rainfall and
ultimately affects water-related services like energy. Furthermore, the intense use of biomass
promotes the emission of GHG into the atmosphere through the burning of firewood or the
production of charcoal, and Malawi’s agriculture, forestry and other land use accounted for 88%
of the country’s reported greenhouse gases in 2000 (Johnston, 2013). Second, due to
deforestation, Malawi experiences heavy rains and the effects are rampant. These effects are not
only confined to people’s lives, they also spill over to other sectors like energy since Malawi’s
source of electricity is hydro-powered. Floods disrupt electricity production because of the
siltation that blocks and obstructs the in-take points at the hydro-generating plant caused by poor
and unsustainable agricultural practices, deforestation, and deleterious weeds (IGAD, 2007). A
situation of this nature affected the production of electricity in Malawi in the following years:
1993/1994, 1994/1995, and 1999/2000 (IGAD, 2007). As far as I can remember, in every rainy
season in Malawi, power outages are very common. Low amounts of rainfall mixed with
random heavy rains cause siltation that usually lead to low filling of dams, and it therefore
generates low power levels and huge maintenance costs (Inception Workshop, 2009).
Connected to droughts in the energy sector are power outages. The 6 power stations on
Shire River, for example, have gone through a series of maintenance operations due to
deforestation on the river banks that influence high runoffs and then disrupt power generation.
Power outages are a result of less or heavy water that is caused by floods and drought, which
cause malfunction of the power generators. Malawi’s financial loss due to power outages
amounts to 4.4 percent of the national income, and the unreliable power supply costs the nation
$215.6 million per year in all.46 As stated above, the root cause of this problem is the presence
of weather shocks that are linked to climate change, which is translated into floods and droughts.

CONCLUSION
Malawi’s economy and its respective sectors such as agriculture, health, water resources
and energy are faced with the effects of climate change. Caution should be taken, though, in
linking all the adverse results to climate change. The effects of climate change are apparent but
they are exacerbated by socioeconomic and political factors. This realization, however, does not
repudiate the effects that climate change has on people’s lives, as seen in the discussion above.
The bad shape of the drivers of Malawi’s economy (agriculture, service and industry) trickles
down to other sectors that are closely linked with the social-economic aspects of people’s lives.
In addressing climate change effects, efforts should include raising the social-economic status of
the people, for these issues pose integrated challenges. One of the ways this can be addressed is

46
http://www.allvoices.com/contributed-news/5407819-burden-of-power-cuts-on-malawi-economy

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to engage in conversations that link socioeconomic aspects of the issues to discussions of policy
changes that integrate all the dimensions of human life. The next chapter focuses on the policy
framework of Malawi and its response to the effects of climate change from this perspective.

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 CHAPTER 7

MALAWI’S POLICY ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS

INTRODUCTION
Chapter Seven screens the policy environment in Malawi in relation to climate change.
The discussion refers to the term “policy environment” as a cluster of policy tools that regulate
the political agenda in Malawi. As seen in Chapter Three, the policy atmosphere concerning
climate change plays a very important role in implementing adaptation and mitigation initiatives
and ensuring their success. This chapter works from that perspective but digs deeper and covers a
wide range of policy tools. It has four sections: understanding policy, public policy, categories of
policy tools and an analysis of the policy environment in Malawi around climate change using
Bardach’s eight – fold policy analysis tool. First, policy as a term and theory is briefly explored.
Second, climate change agenda is defined as a public policy. Third, policy tools are defined and
last, an analysis of the policy environment is carried out.

Understanding Policy
Originating from the Greek word ‘polis’, policy refers to a series of actions carried out by
the state, national or local governments (Claudia & Kellen, 2010). The tools used in carrying out
these series of actions are called policy tools or instruments (Holger, 2010). Furthermore, policy
instruments are a reflection of political steering (Claudia & Kellen, 2010), which is also referred
to as governance (Haritier, 2002), and governance is the deliberate intervention of political
players in the society (Mayntz, 1995). This explanation further implies that if political steering is
governance, policy instruments are the modes of governance. Governance, however, should not
be strictly taken as the role of the government (it can be partially). In its true sense, governments
are ways of governing by the central public figures that have formal responsibilities and are
validated by democracy and accountable to citizens; mostly, when they are democratic
governments. In addition, governance may include the participation of the public in the process
of putting together policies. There are many types of policies, including environmental and social
policies (Holger, 2010) and public policy (Claudia & Kellen, 2010), to which we now turn.

Public Policy
Public policy is defined as a the set of actions or inactions carried out by the government,
public and surrounding stakeholders using their powers and influence to address an issue that
concerns or has an effect on the public (Claudia & Kellen, 2010). These sets of actions include
specific programs and activities, which are based on a rationale of why a chosen policy will
bring about the desired goals and set a broader sense of a strategic direction or a master plan
(Claudia & Kellen, 2010). The definition stated above underlies the need for participation of the
public in creating and implementing public policy for it to be successful. For the purposes of this
thesis, a key implication in the definition is that since climate change is an issue that concerns or
affects the public, it falls into this category of policies.
There are three domains that define any public policy work, as pictured in the public
policy framework or triangle below in Figure 5 (Claudia & Kellen, 2010).

Figure 5: The Policy Work Triangle

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 These three domains of public policy are the strategic, operational and responsive, and
they entail the role of the government in policy, the participation of the front line personnel and
managers, and the presence of the public sector in informing the planning process respectively.
First, the Strategic Policy domain underlines the role of the government in driving policy goals,
and that is why the apex of Figure 5 has the phrase “push the frontier.” The second domain
consists of Operational Policy, which is where policy is put into practice, facilitated by front line
staff and managers, reflecting the saying, “keep things running” located at the left base angle.
The third domain, Responsive Policy, focuses on the details of program design and planning,
with little or no attention to the strategic portion of policy implementation, indicated by the
expression, “make ideas work” placed at the right base angle in Figure 5. Policy analysts and
advisors make sure that the government priorities which were set are achieved. In summary,
public policy is a broad type composed of these domains and within it a variety of policy tools
exist, which we now review.

Classifications of Policy Instruments

Bruijn and Hufe (1998) propose three classes of policy instruments: command and
control instruments, economic instruments and suasive instruments. Command and control
instruments denote coercion and punishment; economic instruments imply incentives and suasive
instruments define the position of the public in reacting to the commands and control, and
economic instruments. These categories of policy instruments are commonly known as carrots,
sticks and sermons respectively, and any policy instrument can be identified as belonging to one
or more of these three categories (Vedung et al., 1998). In the category of carrots, the
government exerts its role through command and control; in sticks, people get the economic
incentive for abiding by the government’s policies; and in sermons, both government and
economic actors inform the general public of what is going on and expect the public to respond
to the set policies. Vedung et al., (1998) suggest that all policy tools may have all of the
characteristics stated above, and with this as background, I now examine the policy framework
or environment for climate change in Malawi.

POLICY FRAMEWORK REVIEW FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAWI

Climate change is the issue of concern in Malawi and the nature of the issue concerns the
public because the claimed effects are affecting people as shown in Chapter 6. As such, lasting

62
solutions cannot be achieved if the public is not engaged so the analysis of policies, especially
those that directly affect the public like those environmental in nature, have to regard the opinion
of the general public. The literature provides two approaches to assessing the engagement of
public opinion: looking at the process of developing the policy in use, or analyzing the actors
involved in the development and implementation of the policy. My analysis of the policy
framework in Malawi about climate change as a public concern in nature uses both approaches
interactively: understanding the process and the actors, relying on the Bardach policy analysis
model and its iterative 8 steps.

Bardach Eight-Fold Policy Analysis Model

Bardach’s Eight-Fold Policy analysis model takes its name after Eugene Bardach who
developed it to help in creating policy tools. Its design, however, provides enough flexibility to
use it also for policy tool analysis. It consists of eight steps, which are problem definition,
assemble evidence, select criteria, construct alternatives, project outcomes, confront tradeoffs,
decide and tell story, as depicted in Figure 6 (Bardach, 2011). This section attempts to use this
model by following seven of the eight steps to analyze the environment of the policies in Malawi
with a skew toward climate change, and the eighth step, “tell story,” is covered in the last chapter
which has conclusions and recommendation. As mentioned already, the process of going through
these steps is iterative in nature. Though Bardach (2011) recommends starting from any step of
the model, this discussion finds it easier to follow the steps as covered in their original sequence.
The term “environment” here is used to imply multiple policy tools and this analysis, therefore,
looks at several existing tools that moderate climate change issues in Malawi.

Figure 6: Bardach Eight Fold Policy Analysis Model

Adopted from Bardach (2008)

Stage One: Define Problem
Bardach (2011) underscores the need to define a problem that calls for the policy
analysis, which is the first crucial step in carrying out an analysis. He advocates for a “deficit” or
“excess” mentality in framing the identified problem. In fact, he encourages policy analysts to
consider and include the term “too” in their definition for it puts the problem into the right frame.

63
In Malawi, the responses of the present clusters of policies that deal with climate are too shallow
to react to the effects of climate change and the situation has birthed increased diseases, injuries,
disturbed ecosystem, and deaths.

Stage Two: Assemble Evidence

Chapter Six has explored some of the effects of climate change in Malawi. A bulk of the
information explained in that chapter provides the starting point of forming evidence that shows
how shallow these policy tools are in reacting to climate change effects. This shallowness is seen
in the repetitiveness of the adverse scenarios resulting from climate change related effects in the
presence of these policies. In what follows, the analysis provides a thread of these effects from
climate change that show their consistent effects on people’s lives over a 10 year timeline from
2002 until 2012, then, it examines the efforts employed by the government of Malawi to create
policies designed to attend to such effects. Placing these two realities, the effects of climate
change and policy formulation and implementation, in a juxtaposition, shows the shallowness of
the response of these policies towards climate change effects. Later on in this section,
compounding factors of the shallowness of policies, which are lack of commitment by the
government of Malawi and the absence of a single coherent policy on climate change, are briefly
reviewed.

Effects of Climate change

As argued in Chapter 6, droughts and floods are some of the strong indicators in
Malawi’s story of climate change, especially in the absence of empirical research that would
prove the existence of climate change in this country. In addition to the droughts and floods that
pose challenges to the people’s livelihoods, the government has also contributed to the problems
with mismanagement of resources. According to World Bank (2006), Pauw et al (2010), and
Menon (2007), Malawi registered consecutive droughts in 2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and
2006. The pattern of the droughts was not uniform and, in the same years, other places in Malawi
had different climate shocks like floods and many crops were affected leading to low harvests
and ultimately, hunger (Pauw et. al., 2010), death, diseases, and under-nutrition, to which I will
now turn.
First, in 2002, between 500 and 1000 people died of hunger or hunger related diseases.
The same year, 12 percent of the students quit school largely due to the food shortages and a
separate 10 percent of students were attending school irregularly because of the food shortages. 47
Second, in 2003, donors, government, civil society organizations managed to import
788,538 metric tons of maize, with a total of almost $201.88 million (Charman, 2006) and cases
of hunger resulting from droughts and floods continued in the growing season of 2003/04. In this
period, Malawi witnessed occurrences of maternal deaths that were the result of nutritional needs
especially during the growing seasons that are critical months of food supply, and this led to
more instances of orphans. In this year, 38,000 malnourished children were registered in the
Ministry of Health’s social safety net scheme (Devereux, 2006).
Third, the 2004/05 growing season coincided with the coming in of the new government.
Farmers expected an expanded fertilizer subsidy promised in the political campaigns and this
expectation led to the reluctance of the private fertilizer companies to import fertilizer. The
government, on the other hand, delayed the fertilizer subsidy, which ended up being reduced in
size due to strong resistance from the opposition parties in parliament. These situations led to

47
One World (2010)

64
low availability of food reserves for 2005/2006 food season and, consequently, it led to a food
crisis. In 2005 for example, 4.7 million people were faced with situations of food shortages
(Mennon, 2007), representing over half of total population of Malawi, all of whom needed food
assistance.48 In addition, there was a decline of 24% of the expected national food reserves in the
same year, which meant that 2006 would be faced with a food deficit because usually food
reserves of the current year are meant to be used in the coming year (Minot, 2010). The situation
coincided with the long dry spells that were experienced in that growing season. This food crisis
resulted in high prices set for the cereals in 2006 such that most families could not afford to buy
enough food; these circumstances saw almost half of the children under the age of five
experiencing stunted growth and 22 percent were acutely severely stunted (Minot, 2010).
Fourth, the 2007/08 season, however, was a different story. In this growing season,
Malawi scaled up the subsidy programme that coincidentally met favorable climatic conditions,
resulting in a bumper yield year with a surplus of over 160 million metric tons of maize. Still an
irony existed. Even though there was a surplus of cereals, the price of food spiked and Malawi
experienced a food shortage as usual (Chirwa & Chinsinga, 2013). This happened because of
inaccurate projections. The government of Malawi decided to sell most of the grain in the
reserves; but, at a later date, it realized that there were low reserves, so the food market reacted
to this and grain sellers hiked the prices of their grain. In response, the government started
instituting restrictions such as a ban on international export of maize but these efforts did not
make more food available nor did prices decrease to the reach of many. A substantial number of
people, therefore, continued to face hunger. Finally, a country that experienced a surplus in
maize ended up importing 201.8 million metric tons in 2007,49 and in 2008, 1.5 million people
were still susceptible to food shortages. In the 2008/09 growing season, however, this number
went down to 142, 492 representing 1.1% of the population, needing food assistance. In 2010,
the situation started getting worse, and these numbers shot up again to 718,000 people who
needed food assistance and represented 5% of the total population (Curtis et al., 2011). In short,
the occurrences of hunger in the country were a mixture of the variables of droughts and floods
and the government’s mismanagement of resources.
Fifth, circles of hunger and death related to climate change effects of floods and droughts,
which were rampant in the period between 2002 and 2006, prevailed in the 2011/2012 food
season. The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) estimated that 201,854
people would not meet yearly food demands during the 2011/2012 food season. Later on, the
situation turned out worse. Even though governments usually take time to admit crises like these
when they happen, this case was different. The Malawian president, Bingu Wa Muthalika,
admitted at one of his political rallies that the prevailing cases of hunger in Malawi in the
2011/2012 season were serious.50 Overall, therefore, even though Malawi managed to produce a
surplus of grain this did not give results at the per capita level. Better yields were not
experienced uniformly, several parts of the country experienced droughts and, therefore, hunger
prevailed.

Policy formulation and implementation

Malawi signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) in 1992, but did not make its first communication of the climate change situation to

48
Ibid.
49
http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/malawi
50
http://www.faceofmalawi.com/2012/02/president-mutharika-admits-hunger-biting-malawians/

65
the UNFCCC until 2002. The UNFCCC is a treaty that engages many nations who resolve to
partake in the efforts of dealing with climate change across the globe. Part of this treaty is the
Kyoto Protocol, a global legal agreement that binds its parties by putting measures to reduce
gaseous emissions. Since developed nations are principally major culprits for the recent high
concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere, they are given bigger targets than the developing
nations under the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities.” The Protocol was
adopted in Japan in 1997, but it did not take effect until 2005. This period of 8 years provided
time for countries to pledge their commitments to the Protocol, with the objective of having 55
countries representing 55 percent of the guaranteed emission reductions. Detailed regulations for
the implementation of the Protocol were adopted in Marrakesh, Morocco in 2001 and the first
commitment period started in 2008 and ended in 2012.51 Around this period, climate change as a
concern started appearing in many of the Malawi’s policies and strategies.
In what follows, the discussion will briefly analyze some of the policies that were
intended to restrain the challenges initiated by the effects of climate change. Afterwards, the
analysis will show the persistent effects of climate change that were supposed to be restrained. A
presentation of policies will follow to demonstrate their shallowness and how that shallowness
came about, discussing them in the following order: The National Environmental Policy (2004),
The Malawi National Strategy and Sustainable Development Policy (2004), The National Water
Policy (2005), The National Adaptation Programme of Action (2006), The Agriculture and Food
Security Policy (2006), and the National Climate Change Policy (2012). Policies presented
below are only some of the many that were crafted in that time period, 2002 to 2012; these have
been picked for they are related to the climate change agenda.

The National Environmental Policy (NEP)

The National Environmental Policy (NEP) was adopted in Malawi in 2004. NEP was set
up as an umbrella of environmental policies, all of which were geared to sustain the livelihood of
the people and to protect people’s lives. The NEP pleads with various stakeholder to map out
ways of reducing the impact of climate change and calls on the government to cut greenhouse
gas emissions through a climate change monitoring process on Malawi’s ecosystem and
vegetation sites, transport and the manufacturing sectors. The goal is to use recorded data to aid
in the use of the land and economic decisions (CEPA, 2011). Under this umbrella of
environmental policy, policies were put in place on the following sectors: forestry, fisheries,
water, land use and management, wildlife, irrigation and tourism (MREA, 2004). For the
purposes of this study, a superficial look is taken below at agriculture, forestry, fisheries, water,
and land use and management policies.

The Malawi National Strategy on Sustainable Development (MNSSD)

The Malawi National Strategy on Sustainable Development (MNSSD) was formulated
after the NEP in 2004. Its goal was to create strategies to encourage responsibility to take care of
the environment, prevent degradation, promote a health life for everyone, ensure sustainability of
resources for future generations, and protect and enrich biological diversity (MNSSD, 2004).
MNSSD hoped to include environmental management, social and economic development under
the following themes: poverty reduction, altering unsustainable patterns of consumption and
production, protection and management of the natural resource base of economic and social
development (MNSSD, 2004).

51
http://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/items/2830.php

66
The National Water Policy
The National Water Policy was developed in 2005 to effect sustainable management and
utilization of water resources, so that everyone in the country could access water with acceptable
quality but also with the right quantities (MoG, 2005). Just like many other policy documents,
this one also covered a broad spectrum of issues, including water resource management and
development, rural water services, water quality and pollution control, urban, peri-urban and
market water services (MoG, 2005).

The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA)

Coming from a series of adverse climate change effects since 2002, as shown above and
consistent with the Malawi’s signing on with the UNFCCC, the creation of NEP (2004) and that
of MNSSD (2004), the country decided to come up with an adaptation plan. Termed the
“National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) developed in 2006, Malawi hoped to
address urgent and immediate needs for adaptation with regards to climate change since at stake
were the lives of people especially those based in the rural parts of Malawi (NAPA, 2006). The
document posits the occurrences of floods and droughts as the main rationale for developing
NAPA, identifying the key adaptation needs as being in agriculture, water, forestry, wildlife,
fisheries, human health, energy, and gender sectors. The following were some of the specific
identified details: sustenance of life and livelihoods for the most vulnerable communities, food
security and community based food storage, improved crop production through appropriate
technologies, afforestation and reforestation programmes, improving energy access and security
in rural areas, improving nutrition among rural communities. In short, thirty priority areas were
identified and 15 of them were taken as urgent (NAPA, 2006).

Agriculture and Food Security Policy (2006)

Largely, the National Agricultural Policy focused on agriculture development, with the
strategies to achieve the goals. Its main purpose was the promotion of agricultural productivity
and sustainable management of land resources to attain food security, better incomes and the
general advancement of sustainable socio-economic growth and development (MSWAp, 2011).
By coming up with this policy, the government of Malawi hoped that there would be improved
food security of the population, which would be seen in the diversity of the available food and
the sustainability of the available system that would ensure its (food) availability. Key areas in
this policy are HIV/AIDS, Environment, Gender Equity and Empowerment, and Science and
Technology (MoG, 2006).

The National Climate Change Policy (2012)

The National Climate Change Policy has been a long-awaited document. Now passed
into law, the policy seeks to promote adaptation and mitigation to achieve sustainable livelihoods
through the measures that increase knowledge levels, understanding and the improvement of
people’s lives and their equity. Underlying this policy is the hope that it will bring economic
development that reduces environmental challenges (MoG, 2012).

Discussion
As shown above, all six policy documents that were developed between 2000 and 2012
claimed to manage environmental resources such as forestry, fisheries, water, land, and wildlife

67
with the goal of sustaining human life. Even though many of the policy goals were stated to deal
with environmental stewardship, the effects of climate change in form of floods and droughts led
to increasing deaths. It appears that as policy tools were increasingly crafted, the challenges
connected to the same focus of the policies were increasing as well. This was caused, in part, by
two compounding factors, on which we now focus our attention.

Compounding Factors
The shallowness of these policies in reacting to the dangers from the effects of climate
change, was exacerbated both by little or no support from the government on these issues, and
the absence of a single coherent policy on climate change as discussed herein. First, for the past
six years, the national budgets presented in the Parliament had no substantial allocation of funds
to climate change. The study’s review of Malawi’s budgets from 2006 to 2013, found out that
the key budget lines have been Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development, Civil Servants’
wages, Road Infrastructure, Energy, Rural Development, Social Sector, Health and Education
(Malawi Government Budget Statements: 2006/07, 2007/08, 2008/09/, 2009/10, 2010/11,
2011/2012 and 2012/13). The absence of climate change agenda from these budgets display its
lack of commitment and led the country to rely on donors to deal with the issue of climate
change agenda. Donors’ support is not always enough and this in the end leads to tangential
treatment of the effects of climate change.
Second, while the effects of climate change are felt in many sectors of the economy, from
2002 until 2012, there was no single coherent policy that specifically addressed this issue. This
resulted in many attempts by the government to force the climate change agenda on other
policies that had not been crafted to curb climate change effects. In one study, Chinsinga et al.,
(2012) pointed out that there were strong battles among the government officials in different
sectors to have control over the climate change agenda because, whether real or not, rumors
circulated that there was huge financial support attached to this agenda. Obviously, this struggle
to gain leadership on the climate change agenda defeats the effectiveness of the policies since the
goal is no longer collaboration but competition. Three government agencies, the Department of
Environmental Affairs (DEA), Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development
(MoFEP&D) and Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development (MoAI&WD)
actively compete for the leadership role of the climate agenda and this setbacks the efficiency
and effectiveness of their efforts towards climate change in general (Chinsinga, 2012). A
discussion of these compounding factors provides a clue to the disorganization of actors involved
in formulating or implementing these policies, which lead this discussion to an exploration of the
actors involved in policy formulation or implementation.

Actors
Since Malawi’s independence, the government through the Office of the President and
Cabinet (OPC) was the sole actor responsible for policy formulation but the coming in of
multiparty politics in 1994, permitted the participation of multiple players such as the media,
NGOs, political parties, religious leaders, etc. (Kayuni, 2010). Even though this is the case, two
problems have been evident with this set up: many of these actors do not actively get involved in
the formation of these policies, and there seem to be challenges in the definition of clear
institutional frame-work of policy formation in the country (Chinsinga, 2007). The former reason
is a paradox in that, even though policy documents claim the active participation of multiple
players in policy formulation, this study finds no substantial literature that validates these claims.

68
 In fact, Chinsinga (2007) reveals the evidence that discredits these claims and his study
frames the actors involved in policy formulation in Malawi. It screened the policy formation
process of the “social protection policy”, which is understood as a policy that help people,
households and communities to protect themselves against shocks and risks as a key of achieving
the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) (Chinsinga, 2007). From this specific example,
three scenarios are revealed that show the inactive participation of many players; and, this gives
us a clue as to who gets involved in policy formulation and implementation since studies like this
are not many in Malawi.
First, the study reported that the social protection draft policy was only a collaboration
between the government and donor agencies. There was low participation of the civil society by
the Council of Non-Governmental Organizations (CONGOMA) and the Civil Society
Agricultural Network (CISANET), totally excluding politicians, academics, the private sector,
local government structures and the citizens at large. Second, this draft policy was followed by a
consultation meeting with a large participation of civil society at the Malawi Institute of
Management (MIM). Post meeting remarks described the consultation discussion as a ‘briefing’
meeting because there was no time for participants to assimilate or analyze issues surfaced in the
draft copy. Third, other NGOs questioned the quality of the draft copy and proposed a meeting
to improve the policy by providing their input. The meeting took place. Suggestions were
proposed from the academics, politicians, the private sector, and religious leaders, but the final
social protection policy draft did not reflect the suggestions provided by other players. Studies
like this one are rare in Malawi; therefore, this scenario may reflect how powerful and
controlling the government is in policy formation that leaves no incentive to follow the process
with keen interest either by other players or the general population.
In summary, with the specific example explored here, the following are the actors
involved in policy formulation: the government of Malawi, donor partners, politicians,
academics, religious leaders, the private sector and citizens at large. It seems, however, that the
government of Malawi and donor partners is the main players in policy formulation, and it is at
par with the donor partners. The other players apart from these two such as politicians,
academics, religious leaders, the private sector and citizens at large, have low participation or
influence on the formulation of policies. The available literature did not provide more examples
to fully deduce the level of participation of other players in general or specific agenda like
climate change. Due to the lack of literature on these issues, this discussion presumes that the
government of Malawi and donor agencies does the same in developing other policies. In
addition to the challenge of dominance of the government and donors on policy formulation,
which implies low participation of other players, the study identifies two more technical
problems that are the duplication of efforts (through policy formulation) and overlapping of roles
by the ministries discussed extensively below.

Duplications and Overlaps

Malawi has various ministries that are formed according to the nature of issues that
challenge sectors of its economy such as agriculture, mining, health, etc. Within the jurisdiction
of the Office of the President and Cabinet (OPC), there exists at the highest level of this
government organization, ministries with a particular focus such as ‘the ministry of food security
and agriculture’. Under this level, there are departments responsible for a more narrow focus
within a particular ministry, followed by programmes, which drive specific activities but are
connected to the overall nature of the ministry. Policies, like the ones briefly discussed above,

69
are developed to guide specific issues that fall within the ministry’s scope as clearly stipulated by
the ministry’s goals. The challenge with this set up is that when a new government comes into
power, it restructures these ministries, sometimes according to current challenges facing the
country but mostly as a preference. Restructured ministries end up creating policies that are
similar to the ones created by the old ones and, this leads to the duplications of the efforts as
shown in the specific policies in this study. In addition, there is an overlap of roles executed by
various ministries as these policies are issued and implemented.
A glimpse of these restructures by various governments is shown here. The Ministry of
Natural Resources and Environmental Affairs that existed in the first multiparty president, Bakili
Muluzi’s era (1999 to 2004) issued the NEP and MNSSD in 2004. The ministry changed its
scope and was called the Ministry of Mines, Natural Resources and Environment in 2006 during
the second democracy president, Bingu Wa Muthalika’s era and it issued NAPA the same year.
The same ministry changed to the Ministry of Environmental and Climate Change Management
in 2012 under Joyce Banda, the third democratic president and issued the National Climate
Change Strategy the same year. Apart from the current Malawi National Climate Change
Strategy Policy, the other policies already discussed, NEP, MNSSD, the Water Policy, the
Agriculture and Food Security policy were created with less interval period between them.
Between 2004 and 2006, the aforementioned policies, that were touching on climate change
agenda or environmental issues were issued and were all on the ministerial level – the same
hierarchy. The spacing of these policies raises some concern in that there was not enough time
for a policy to effectively yield the anticipated results. This analysis identifies the minimal time
spacing on the policy formulation as the duplication of efforts in tackling the same issue, climate
change or environmental issues. It further contests that the duplication of policy efforts may
thwart the lasting solution it intends to achieve since policy prescriptions require a longer period
to effect change. This is especially true with climate issues that are generally observed over a
lengthy duration.
Besides the duplication of efforts, the analysis also observed the overlapping of roles to
deal with climate change by several ministries. By overlapping, I mean that the same agenda is
tackled by several ministries with less coherence or collaboration. There is the overlapping of the
ministry of irrigation and water development, ministry of environmental and climate change
management, and the ministry of agriculture and food security in dealing with climate change or
environmental challenges. Though these ministries were on the same level of authority, the
climate change agenda was one of their primary objectives. The ministry of water and irrigation
through its Water policy cites climate change as one of its focuses in carrying out its businesses.
The ministry of agriculture and food security slightly touches on climate issues as well, and the
ministry of environmental and climate change management has climate change as its primary
focus. I would expect that the agenda should have been incorporated in programmes of these
particular ministries to mainstream than being an area of focus for it defeats the effectiveness of
the efforts.
The study identifies a strong chance of duplications of efforts because of the continual
creation of policies in a short period in dealing with climate change. In addition, there was also
the likelihood of overlapping of ministerial roles in tackling the same agenda since most of these
policies were staged at the same hierarchical level (ministerial level). At this point, discussion
points out three issues that may explain why in general these policies have not been effective.
First, the overlapping and duplications, therefore, raise the concern of leadership of the climate
change agenda especially that this was happening at the high level; it may permit ineffectiveness

70
of leadership. Second, financial constraints would have been an issue: most of these policies
were developed within the small intervals of time, 5 policies in 2 years, dealing with a wide
range of issues including climate change yet with no financial support from the national budget.
Lastly, the presence of these overlaps and duplications hints at the absence or inactiveness of an
articulate meteorological department. This paper strongly suspects the absence of technical
expertise or outdated systems in the meteorological department as briefly pointed out in Chapter
Two. Why did the same climate-related events repeatedly happen in the presence of the
meteorological system?

Stage 3: Construct the Alternative

Bardach’s stage three requires a proposition of alternatives based on the evidence
assembled in stage two. As noted above, many policies crafted between 2002 and 2012 were
important, but it appears that many of them duplicated their efforts and there were overlaps in the
execution of the ministerial roles towards the climate change agenda. The setting described
above, therefore, fits that of a policy environment that was not cohesive of encouraging of efforts
of dealing with climate change in Malawi and therefore, it defeated its effectiveness. This stage
proposes alternatives that may tweak the structure and improve the effectiveness of the already
existing policies. Since observations drawn from a sample of the policies above showed that
there were challenges of leadership, financial constraints and the absence of technical expertise
in the meteorological sector, I propose the following alternatives: redefinition of leadership on
climate change agenda, allocation of substantial financial support to the agenda from the national
budget and the improvement of the meteorological department with equipped personnel and
relevant equipment.

Redefinition of the climate change leadership

The redefinition of the climate change leadership comes due to in part from the
competition of the following ministries, DEA, MoFEP&D, and the MoAI&WD as scantly
mentioned above. Officials in the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) take it that the
department should be the one leading the agenda on climate change, because the agency has
better technical skills and the capacity on specific but also general details about climate change
than the other two sectors. On the other hand, those who think MoFEP&D should shoulder the
leadership of climate change agenda take the agenda as a development issue. Much of this is
derived from the reality that the agenda is a cross cutting one and it, therefore, stands to be an
economic and development issue. A support for MoAI&WD to be a leader in climate change
agenda comes from the reality that the climate change situation is easily felt in agriculture which
is the mainstay of the economy of Malawi. Since it is a critical piece for most Malawians, it
makes sense for the agenda to be adopted by the MoAI&WD. In fact, climate change effects are
more detrimental to the success of agriculture sector than to any other sector in Malawi (Makoka,
2008).
Looking at this situation, the remedy, therefore, is to create an environment where the
climate change issue has an ideal leading government sector. The newly released National
Climate Change Strategy endorses the department of environmental affairs as the leader. This
will mean nothing if the government does not take considerable steps to strategize and sensitize
other departments of what it means to mainstream the climate change agenda while recognizing
DEA as the leader of the agenda.

71
Allotment of substantial resources in the National Budget
Policies do not do the work; they just guide decisions. As such, policies should be
accompanied with the needed resources to achieve the set goals. Different from this reality, the
government of Malawi has the tendency of putting together significant efforts in creating policies
with no significant financial support. This lack of financial support has been instrumental in
defeating the essence of having a policy, a situation that Bardach (2011) identified in theoretical
terms: the logic of a policy is to invest enough money for it to have tangible results. To create a
policy document with an intention of dealing with an issue of a national concern without the
financial support is a waste of time. This situation calls for the government to match the policy
efforts with enough financial support so that the policies can execute their intended purpose.
This has not been the case with climate change.

Improvement of the meteorological sector

The success of policies in relation to the climate change agenda relies heavily on the
technical expertise of the meteorological department in Malawi because it can provide the
nearest accuracy of the situation at hand. Though the country has some infrastructure in this
sector, many areas are lagging behind, such as the deficiencies of communications equipment
and the poor road network that limit the sector from performing according to the pending
challenges of climate shocks (Mafuleka, 2006). The lack of technical expertise and the financial
support increase the powerlessness of the crafted policies. If and only if the meteorological
department improves, then we will see the effects of the policies on the ground. Some specific
challenges exist in the meteorological department, which are inadequate and outdated
meteorological tools and inadequate personnel. For instance, Suarez et al., (2008) mention that
the government’s Disaster Management section which falls under the Department of Poverty and
Disaster Management and closely linked to the department should have at least thirteen
professional personnel, whereas it only has four professionals. In addition, the whole
meteorological department has an average vacancy rate of 30 percent.52 This is pathetic
especially since this department is responsible for the general weather forecasting, flood
forecasting, cyclones warning, and the prediction of disease outbreaks.53 Other factors, like the
attrition of staff caused by early retirement, illnesses, and death, extenuate the ineffectiveness of
the department. In addition to this, vandalism in form of theft and budgetary constraints crippled
the sector’s performance. Between 1988 and 2006, seven hundred rainfall observation stations
have been closed. This is 84 percent reduction of rain stations during a period of eighteen
years.54

Stage 4: Select Criteria

This section calls for a criterion that can be used to choose from the alternatives. The
three alternatives proposed above cannot be implemented at the same time because of two
reasons: each of them would all shift the focus of dealing with the identified problem in a
different way, and they would all be costly. There is a need to give utmost attention to at least
one alternative in the climate change national agenda. To do this, the discussion has settled for
three considerations that can help choose one of the alternatives, defining the most solid and

52
http://training.fema.gov/EMIWeb/edu/CompEmMgmtBookProject.asp
53
Ibid.
54
Ibid.

72
realistic choice: efficiency, politics and environmental interests. These considerations have been
chosen because they can give a better picture of what can happen if they are considered. For
instance, efficiency, which is the use of least amount of inputs to produce more output, is
important to the climate agenda because it is big; therefore, substantial results are needed for the
least amount of resources. Everything about climate change is connected to politics. As shown
above, even the policies themselves carry the political implication, and politics in this case could
be positions of power or the strategic relationship of the climate change agenda and the
government structures. Those who have environmental interest at heart will make the agenda
successful because they will support it; if these kind of people are not part of the process, the
agenda may receive less support. These three considerations are given weights as part of the
process of selecting criteria.
a) Efficiency
In thinking of a way of prioritizing between one, two, or all three alternatives
discussed above, efficiency is one criterion that is helpful. St. Aubyn et al., (2009) define
efficiency as achieving an output with the least amount of inputs. In this particular case,
inputs include time, resources, public support and money. Looking at the three
alternatives, which one would require less use of resources but achieve remarkable
output?
Redefining the leadership of the climate change agenda requires less financial
input, people’s time and less public support. The work of restructuring the leadership
calls for a few people with strategic positions to take action on these issues. This action
will not need approval from the public per say because it is at a level higher that what the
large crowd in the public sector is interested in. This lack of interest comes from the
complexity of the sophisticated process in putting this structural process together.
Injecting more money into the agenda might be considered efficient or not
depending on the outcome. Since Malawi is already a least developed country, finances
are always an issue, so to make such calls for reoccurring additional funding is tricky. An
option in this dilemma would be to decide if the support of the donors could fill the gap.
The situation of the government’s budgets and its ability to generate income would
definitely prove this option as an inefficient one.
Improving the sector’s technical and capacity generally requires substantial
amount of finances as well. In comparison with the other two, however, pouring
resources into this department seems to be worthwhile since whatever can be done
outside the department cannot effect any change if the there is no capacity or the
technical ability.
Assigning weights, therefore, to these alternatives on the scale of 1 – 3, with 1 signifying less
favorable, 2 as average and 3 as the more favorable option, based on efficiency, definition of
leadership is assigned 3, allotment of more finances is assigned 1 and improvement of the sector
is assigned 3.
b) Politics
With regards to the intrusion of politics in pursuing one of these alternatives,
definition of leadership would face considerable challenges. This is because political
leaders will attach climate change to a development orientation and as such, they can
easily influence who should lead the agenda on climate change. On the allotment of a
substantial amount of money to the agenda, it is very hard to determine whether this
would be fruitful, especially since there has been a tendency of governments in Malawi

73
 with known corruption tendencies. So, even though more finances would be assigned to
the agenda, the likelihood of the finances being embezzled would be high. The
improvement of the meteorological department, however, will be highly favored by many
politicians. This is so because any success achieved by the meteorological sector can be
politicized by the politicians. Arguably, the following weights have been assigned: 1 for
leadership, 2 for the allotment of substantial amount to the agenda and 3 for the
improvement of the meteorological sector.
c) Environmental Interests
Redefining leadership on the climate change agenda requires a commitment by
those who genuinely have environmental interests at heart. “Environmental interests”
refers to those people who care about the environment and takes efforts to protect their
environment. Those people with this interest, therefore, should ascertain who should
assume the leadership role. This will be challenging because other people who do not
have genuine interest in environment but who would benefit from the agenda financially,
would not want the agenda to have an absolute leader. As far as the second alternative,
allotment of substantial finances to the agenda, the need is also for people who truly care
about the environment. Without this care, there will be some biases biasness in the
allotment of the funds. It is, however, very challenging to tell those with a genuine
interest, hence, improving the meteorological sector may have the most receptive support.
Stories of climate change effects are becoming common even to those people in the
villages, and this widely embraced perspective by the public would appreciate any
investments made into the meteorological unit, the third alternative. According to this
analysis of the environmental interest alternative, the assignments of the weights are 2 for
the redefinition of leadership, 3 for the allotment of substantial finances and 3 for the
improvement of the sector.
Stage 5: Projecting the outcomes
To assess which alternative will project the best outcomes, I will use the weights on the
specific criterion and choose an alternative that scores high by looking at total score of the
criteria (efficiency, politics and environmental interests). Simple calculations will be made to
ascertain the alternative that scores highest of the rest. Bardach (2008) proposes the use of the
outcome matrix, Figure 7 below, and I have adopted that as well. From my matrix, the alternative
with the high average score will be the better one to be pursued.

Figure 7: Outcome Matrix

Alternative Efficiency Politics Environmental

Interest
Redefinition of Leadership 3 1 2
Allotment of more finances 1 2 3
Improving the capacity and 3 3 3
technical skills of the department

Redefinition of Leadership: 3+1+2 (6÷3) = 2

Allotment of More Finances: 1+2+3 (6÷3) = 2
Improvement of the Department: 3+3+3 (9÷3) = 3

74
 The matrix shows that improving the meteorological has scored higher than the other two
alternatives. In terms of efficiency, politics, and environmental interests, it has scored the highest
score which is 3 by accumulating 9 scores and getting an average of 3. Redefinition of leadership
and the allotment of more finances each have a total of 6, both achieving an average of 2. These
simple calculations point to the ‘improvement of the department’ as the ideal option in achieving
effectiveness in the meteorological department.
The evaluative approach done above has huge room for subjectivity. My evaluation, has
considered the role of the public and that of the government and, as such, this case may look
different if someone would use other considerations or develop a different criterion. Arguably,
the context of my analysis validates that the policies should come up with strategies that should
consider the improvement of the meteorological department, or more policies should only be
crafted if the meteorological department is able to function well rather than continuing with the
practices of developing more policy tools.

Stage 6: Confront Trade-Offs

From the outcomes projected above, it has shown that “Improving the department” has
the highest average score out of the three alternatives screened above. But, what will we lose if
we dismiss the other two alternatives and stick on this one?

Redefinition of Leadership on Climate Change Agenda

The importance of a strong leadership on this agenda of climate change amidst several
policy documents cannot be overemphasized. Many professionals in Malawi have alluded to and
pleaded for a national policy on climate change. Their rationale is that if there is a National
Climate Change policy, it will define who the leaders of the agenda are. Therefore, the presence
of this national policy will iron out all leadership issues pertaining to the agenda, they argue.
This expectation, however, is overrated, especially since Malawi has numerous policy
documents that are meant to guide different sectors and even in those sectors where clear
leadership roles are defined, these policy documents are hardly used. The major reason is that
there are always budget deficits. I do not expect that climate change policy, even though it is a
new phenomenon confronting the nation, will be given a different support. In addition,
leadership may not be a pressing issue since there is a new policy document on the agenda that
should iron out most of the leadership issues. To redefine leadership issues at this present time
may be a redundancy.

Allotment of substantial amounts to Climate Change Agenda

Allocating substantial amounts of resources to the climate change agenda did not come
out as a favorable alternative for two reasons. Firstly, Malawi’s economy may not be in a good
position financially to add more resources on this agenda, since an increase of resources
allocated to this agenda will strain the already few resources that exist. Secondly, the climate
change agenda needs an effective meteorological department to update it on the current state of
the climate. This will be helpful in understanding the trend of the patterns of seasons in different
settings which may also be instrumental in providing the early warning systems associated with
irregularities of climate change. Pouring much funds into this agenda when the meteorological
department is not in good shape may not be the wisest decision.

Stage 7: Decide

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 At this point, it is obvious that to better deal with the agenda then the last alternative –
improving the meteorological department – is the better one. Resting on this choice leverages the
tradeoffs shown above. If the sector is equipped with professional personnel and better
equipment, existing issues of leadership and the need for more operational budget can be
mitigated. Improvement of the sector requires a one-time investment of finances to buy new
equipment and resuscitate dead observation stations. I presume that the sector had already been
allocated funds for personnel, so what is needed is just the filling up of those vacancies with the
already assigned money for such posts. If the vacancies are filled up and the existing equipment
is updated, there is only need for minimal leadership to provide the technical expertise and offer
updated information on weather. This agrees with the meteorological department’s goal, which is
mandated to “providing reliable, responsive and high quality weather and climate services to
meet national, regional and international obligations through timely dissemination of accurate
and up to-date data and information for socio-economic development”.55
Observation stations are very important in achieving the department’s goal because they
provide the raw data for the sector to extrapolate their implications to the local communities.
This data can be quite instrumental in providing early warning signs to climate related disasters
and provide economic benefits since Malawi’s economic mainstay, agriculture, has strong ties
with climate trends. In one study, commercial farmers, those who farm for the purposes of
selling, appreciated the availability of the specific seasonal forecasts through the meteorological
systems and the same study articulated the quest for such information by other farmers. The
same study articulated the need to strengthen the technical capacity of meteorological data and
equipment (Clay et al., 2003). It, therefore, imply that the available data is not of high quality
and the distribution of the same, needs some tweaking. The availability of this data to farmers,
however, sheds a grain of importance even though the department is in deteriorating state
evidenced by the attrition of staff and deplorable assets explored above. If the data has been of
importance to farmers, quality data gathering, interpretation and distribution by the
meteorological department can go a long way in helping the nation many of its activities related
to climate.
It makes sense, therefore, to invest in this aspect because the success of the other two
alternatives depends on an updated, efficient and effective meteorological department. From this
analysis, therefore, the available policies should vouch for continual improvement of the
meteorological sector. For without it being updated, even though clear leadership and operational
funds are poured into the sector, challenges of climate change will still exist. One of the
challenges of having a disjointed meteorological department is that climate related disasters will
always take people by surprise that can be different if it is well cohesive. For example, because
of the drought effects of 2004 and 2005, a local commercial bank lost $110,000 to smallholder
farmers in one area related to climate change; it stopped loaning those farmers, and about 1000
households were affected. In the same year, two microfinance institutions quit loaning to those
involved in agriculture.56 In addition, the previous study I mentioned, farmers seemed to do
better with their trade when the observation data from one of the meteorological stations,
appreciating the role of an improved meteorological sector.

55
http://www.metmalawi.com/
56
http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/sdissues/finance/egm2007/presentations/syroka.pdf

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 CHAPTER 8

APPROACHES AND STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAWI

INTRODUCTION
Chapter 4 reviewed adaptation and mitigation practices in Philippines, Mexico and Chile.
The success of these practices corresponded to a favorable policy environment present in these
countries, and this speaks to the possibilities for Malawi. This chapter, therefore, focuses on the
policy efforts Malawi has so far made in dealing with climate change. Being a poor nation with
less commitment to the agenda, most of its efforts on climate change have been largely
dependent on donors, as shown by the little to no allocation of funds towards climate change in
the national budgets. That being said, Malawi has responded to climate change by reviewing its
approaches and corresponding strategies to provide a better framework as it deals with it as
shown in this chapter. The chapter has four sections. First, the terms ‘approach’ and ‘strategies’
are reviewed and given their context. Second, the chapter explores Malawi’s strategy on climate
change issues. Third, Malawi’s approach to climate change is reviewed by looking at various
national strategic papers but emphasis is placed on the National Adaptation Programmes of
Action (NAPA). At the end of the discussion on NAPA, several adaptation and mitigation
practices are reviewed to see how important better policies may permit solid practices to endure
and prevent dangers associated with climate change.

Understanding the terms “Approach” and “Strategy”

For the purposes of this discussion, an approach refers to the general response of the
country to the effects and the reality of an issue, in this case climate change. This definition is
derived from the way various academics and practitioners have used this word “approach.” The
term is rarely defined in the literature, with many authors presuming their readers know what this
term means. For instance, the formerly called Association for Supervision and Curriculum
Development, now known simply as ASCD, identify the term “approach” as a general way of
responding to a situation or a problem that includes particular policies and practices.57 Boesen
and Martin (2007) in discussing the human rights “approach,” identify it as a framework that
puts together norms, principles, standards and goals into the plans and processes. Also, the
UNDP recognizes the term ‘approach’ as a framework that devises a set of integrated support
activities in carrying out the set goals (Krantz, 2001). Drawing on these three cases, the term
‘approach’ here will be used to mean a general framework that moderates practices to deal with
situations or problems.
A strategy, however, is a step below an approach. The term refers to the small steps taken
in achieving the goal set by the overall approach. In the climate change discussion, therefore, it
details the actions taken in dealing with the effects and the reality of climate change. Hambrick
and Fredrickson (2005) identify a strategy as an externally oriented system that strives to achieve
the set objectives of any project. The strategy, therefore, narrows down the general direction of
the approach to the specific in achieving the goals of the project. The discussion has used the
same understanding of the term briefly shown above.

Malawi’s Approach to Climate Change

57
http://www.ascd.org/ASCD/pdf/siteASCD/policy/CCSS-and-Whole-Child-one-pager.pdf

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 Even before the emergence of climate change and its effects, Malawi usually responded
to development issues through the creation of policies. These policies created the general
framework that moderated the activities that were meant to tackle different socio-economic
problems. Consistent with that, its responses to climate change also adopted the same route,
although for a long time the country did not have a single policy document that guided the
intervention of the climate change effects. Still, efforts to deal with climate change effects were
seen in other policy documents that did not necessarily aim for climate change as such; rather it
has been treated as a cross-cutting issue, as we will see in what follows.
Before 2002, the year from which the analysis of these policies start, there were
numerous climate change related policies in play in the absence of the stand-alone climate
change national policy. In 1996, Malawi had already put in place its forest policy, and climate
change was considered explicitly in that document as one of the areas of concern. The same was
true of the National Energy Policy of 2003; the National Environmental Policy of 2004, in which
some surface guidelines for climate change were stipulated; the revised National Water Policy of
2005 ; the National Agricultural Policy (NAP); the National Irrigation Policy and Development
Strategy of 2010; and National Nutrition Policy and Strategic Plan (2007 – 20012).
Just like many other nations, it appears that policy creation is the ideal way of defining
the general response to many development issues. The logic of policy, however, is not just its
clear articulation of the set strategies or goals; rather, it is the availability of resources that
support the proposed approach following through on good implementation of the strategies and
policy. Consistent with its emphasis on policy direction, in 2012 the country launched its long
awaited policy on climate change: the Malawi National Climate Change Policy. The policy has
strongly defined climate change as a development issue and not just an environment one. As
such, its scope leans towards development and therefore, the issue is still treated as a cross-
cutting one among the many sectors of the nation. In sum, Malawi’s approach to climate change
is through the institution of a bigger framework (policy) that guides specific actions (strategies),
which is the topic of the next section of this paper.

Malawi’s Strategy for Climate Change

In support of policy as an approach to dealing with climate change are the strategies that
specifically deal with the issues on the ground. Since Malawi’s National Climate Change policy
is new on the ground, it has to contend with efforts of dealing with climate change that preceded
this national policy. In the new policy, in fact, those strategies that already existed are further
articulated. This section explores those strategies as Malawi employed them in dealing with
climate change before the launch of the National Climate Change Policy, in particular, the
Malawi’s Growth Development (MGDS) Strategy II (2011 – 2016), the Malawi Poverty
Reduction Strategy (MPRS) (2004), the Malawi Climate Change Communication Strategy
(MCCCS) and Malawi’s National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA). These strategy
papers stipulate ways to deal with the range of specific issues recognized broadly in various
policies. The discussion gives a brief review of the first three strategy papers and a deeper
consideration of the last one, NAPA, because the latter focuses entirely on climate change
agenda.
The MGDS was developed by the Malawi government and its development partners. It
exists to achieve the goals set by the previous strategy paper, Malawi Vision 2020 and the
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with a focus on goal number one: halving extreme
poverty and hunger by 2015. The MGDS acknowledges climate change as a challenge for the

78
nation in its key priority number nine that focuses on Climate Change, Natural Resources and
Management and calls for implementing the following strategies: creating adaptation and
mitigation measures to climate change, improving coordination of environment and natural
resource programmes and the promotion of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. It
further connects climate change as a hindrance to achieving sustainable economic growth due to
its effects of erratic rains and droughts that are pinpointed as the compounding factors of the
existing problems of low input use, over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture, inadequate access to
agricultural credit and failures in technology development and transfer. The strategy identifies
the need to mainstream climate change through mitigation and adaptation measures in all sectors
to achieve resilience and sustainable development (Charman, 2006).
The MPRS aimed to provide an overarching strategy for interventions in different sectors
with much emphasis on reducing poverty through socio-economic empowerment. In designing
these efforts, the government articulated the need to improve responses to agricultural-related
challenges induced by climatic shocks. For example out of the 10 objectives, three touched on
climatic shocks: promotion of irrigation, encouragement of specific crops, and reduction of land
shortage and conservation. The MPRS considered the achievement of food security as one of the
keys to agricultural growth. Due to this recognition, several interventions were proposed for the
poor, including welfare transfers of food and assets, targeted nutrition, and targeted inputs for
productivity investment especially for those who are poor but who have land. These
interventions were also seen as efforts to build readiness for climate shocks or as a response to
the shocks (Charman, 2006).
The Malawi Climate Change Communication Strategy (MCCCS) was launched in 2012
due to a concern of the government Malawi with the degradation of the environment and loss of
natural resources in the country seen as being caused by abject poverty, high levels of illiteracy
and population growth and exacerbated by the impacts of climate change (GoM, 2012). At the
same time, the trends of environmental degradation compounded by poverty and population
growth were also seen as negatively affecting the livelihoods of the same poor communities.
Awareness of these issues in these communities, therefore, was viewed as of paramount
importance. The MCCCS’s role is to guide efforts to promote awareness among the communities
and other players on climate change, environment and natural resources management. Consistent
with the definition of “strategy” as being specific, the MCCCS does a great job, with a strategy
designating several ways of carrying out the awareness campaign.
To accomplish this purpose, the strategy uses traditional media, drama, puppet shows,
newsletters and exhibits. Malawi’s societies are rich in their cultures, and the use of traditional
media like rites, ceremonies and folklore, are relevant to the cultures especially in rural areas
where many people are illiterate. The use of drama is a favorable one since it is relatively cheap
in cost and the humor embedded in acting removes the boredom and leads people to be educated
on climate change issues. Just like drama, puppet shows are also inexpensive and are used
extensively, accompanied with fun; their different colors and sounds do well in attracting people.
Although newsletters, on the other hand, are relatively pricy in comparison with the other
mediums, this approach provides the latest information that shows the environmental
implications. Also, ongoing studies and projects in Malawi can be easily communicated through
them. Lastly, exhibits show artifacts and pictures with the intention of educating people about
climate change. A creative display of artifacts and pictures allow the three-dimensional models
that facilitate understanding through the use of sight, sound and touch. It is argued that this mode
of communication can reach a wider population (MoG, 2012).

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National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA)
The National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) stems from the struggles of the
government of Malawi in dealing with climate change. As such, it is one comprehensive strategy
that exists solely to provide ways of dealing with climate change. The document clearly instructs
actions that should be employed in dealing with drought preparedness, water harvesting and
storage, capacity building in adaptation to climate change. Concerning mitigation, it proposes the
development of appropriate technologies, which include food storage systems and new
agriculture practices (Charman, 2006). Some of the proposed activities in NAPA include
reforestation and afforestation, bee-keeping, and the improvement of crop production using
appropriate technologies (MoG, 2006), as seen in the examples of the Chikhwawa, Karonga and
Mulanje districts, reviewed in what follows.

Sweet Fleshed Orange Potatoes in Chikhwawa

In collaboration with the government of Malawi, within the NAPA jurisdiction, the
Catholic Development Commission in Malawi (CADECOM) launched an adaptation project.
The project strove to contribute to combating hunger and vitamin A deficiency in the
Chikhwawa district which was suffering from these challenges because of uneven distribution of
rain. The focus of the project was on young children and pregnant women, using orange-fleshed
sweet potatoes as the remedy. Sweet potato is preferred because the crop is drought tolerant,
does well under marginal conditions and it is short seasoned; it is harvested within 4-5 months.
The crop offers diversification opportunities to smallholder farmers and strengthens their
resilience to climate change by providing itself as a cushion in times of climatic shocks.
The project targeted 600 farmers and ended up with 529 farmers who were given training
on the specific variety of sweet potatoes. After the training, potato roots were distributed from
the crop research station to the farmers’ gathering places to which these they belonged. These
roots were multiplied so that they could be individually shared. Apart from these trainings,
treadle pumps were distributed in the centers at which farmers were registered. Since these
varieties of sweet potatoes were scientifically proven at the research station to be good, the
harvest was enormous. Farmers managed to harvest almost 100 Kgs per two rows (the length
was not given) of planted sweet potatoes. These harvests supplemented what they lacked from
the normal reliance on maize (CADECOM, Report 2012).

Agroforestry and Food Security Programme (AFSP) in Lupembe EPA – Karonga

The Lupembe area of Karonga district in Malawi is considered a food insecure area. Crop
production in this area is made difficult by several factors including poor soil fertility and erratic
rains. With the settling in of climate change, the area has experienced rising cases of droughts
and lengthened dry spells. In responding to this situation, an agroforestry and food security
programme was launched as an adaptation practice towards climate change under the NAPA.
The project intended to upscale integrated agroforestry techniques of organic fertilizer and
planting fruit trees so that smallholder farmers could benefit and survive the impact of climate
change (GoM, 2012).
Several activities were carried out under this project. Agroforestry extension materials,
seeds and seedling inputs were distributed to the farmers, over 50% of whom were women. In
addition, various seeds of agroforestry tree species were sourced, procured and distributed
including some diverse fruit tree species like mango stones, avocadoes, peaches, and guava.

80
Farmers were trained in agroforestry practices, and 173,800 fruit tree seedlings were produced
and distributed to farmers, 72,008 of them from 119 community nurseries and some 101,782
from centralized nurseries. This resulted in new seed orchards on farmer’s fields and also on the
farmer’s stations. The project resulted in high productivity of land and labor, production of food,
improved nutrition and income generation from the sale of the crops. These benefits come
because of the adaption to the effects of climate change through the Agroforestry and Food
Security Programme (AFSP) under the NAPA.58

Forestry Co-Management and Beekeeping in Mulanje District, Malawi

The Mulanje Mountain Forest Reserve (MMRR) is a critical piece of land for the survival
of the communities around it. For instance, it is a source for many rivers and it provides poles
and timber from its trees, besides being a cradle of medicinal plants, food, cultural and spiritual
values. The area around it, however, has not been spared from the impacts of climate change
effects. Faced by long dry spells and poverty, communities rush to find other means of survival,
with the MMRR being a main source of rescue, but in the process, it suffers. Communities cut
down trees to earn money from timber, leading to deforestation and a distortion of the ecosystem
in and around the MMRR.
Through NAPA and the Mulanje Mountain Conservation Trust (MMCT) in partnership
with the department of forestry and other partners, communities in Mulanje synergized
afforestation and reforestation, and beekeeping, with the goal of employing adaptation and
mitigation practices to deal with climate change impacts having a special emphasis on
reforestation and afforestation. Tree planting was preferred as a climate change mitigation
practice and beekeeping as an adaptation to climate change. The planting of trees, including
forestry species, fruit trees and agroforestry species, meant that the ground cover has been
restored. In the agroforestry dimension, the raising of trees combined with food crops or
pastures,59 its species were favored to enhance agricultural productivity and food security. A
beekeeping practice was beneficial to the communities around the MMFR: due to the erratic
rains and dry spells, most families gleaned income from the sale of honey harvested from the
beekeeping businesses. This, then, helped their resilience because the money they made from
selling honey provided a buffer when faced with climatic shocks (GoM, 2012).
These three initiatives, Sweet Fleshed Orange Potatoes – 2009 to 201360, Agroforestry
and Food Security Programme – 2007 to 2010 (GoM, 2012) and the Forest Co-Management and
Beekeeping – 2008 to 201061 in Chikhwawa, Karonga and Mulanje respectively are prove to be
successful. That being said, all of these initiatives were driven by the donor community; the
Chikhwawa and Karonga projects were funded by the Irish Aid, and the Mulanje one by the
government of Norway. As shown earlier on, it is also true that from 2006 to 2013, the
government of Malawi did not apportion funds for climate change agenda in its national budgets.
This means that most of these projects’ activities were funded by the donor community and I find
a problem with this situation in that the drive and success of these adaptation and mitigation
projects depended on donors. Regardless of the success or any kind of challenges that may have

58
http://worldagroforestry.org/newsroom/highlights/agroforestry-food-security-programme-afsp-malawi
59
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/agroforestry
60
http://sweetpotatoknowledge.org/projects-initiatives/sweetpotato-for-profit-and-health-initiative-sphi/rooting-out-
hunger-in-malawi-with-ofsp/project-proposal-yr-4-and-remaining-6-month-program/Org-Joint%20Program-
CIP%20OFSPProject%20Proposal%20Yr%204%20and%20its%20supplement%20of%206%20month%20program-
IrishAid%20Malawi.pdf
61
http://pubs.iied.org/pdfs/G02311.pdf

81
existed or not in implementing these initiatives, the question: “what will happen when the donors
completely pull out?” does not have an easy answer.

CONCLUSION
The biggest approach Malawi takes in responding to climate change is through high level
policy formation to frame the guidance of responses. As seen above, policies at this level are not
as specific but national strategy papers exist to narrow the focus and achieve the specific goals.
The ones discussed above were Malawi’s Growth Development Strategy II (MGDS II) (2011 –
2016), the Malawi Poverty Reduction Strategy (MPRS) (2004), the Malawi Climate Change
Communication Strategy (MCCCS) and Malawi’s National Adaptation Programmes of Action
(NAPA). NAPA is climate change oriented and has several projects such as Sweet Fleshed
Orange, Agroforestry and Food Security and Forestry Co Management and Bee Keeping in
Chikhwawa, Karonga and Mulanje respectively under its jurisdiction employed to adapt and
mitigate the effects of climate change. The projects are quite successful and the communities
seem to have seen already the importance of adapting to climate change with these creative and
sustainable ideas. However, Malawi needs to start owning the climate change agenda in order to
avoid the creation of a tendency of dependency on donors, and second, so that it drives the cause
using its own resources to ensure sustainability of the practices.

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 CHAPTER 9

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

CONCLUSIONS
Climate change is definitely a complex issue, in part because it is propelled by the
ambiguous nature of climate. Since climate is a broad concept, it puts people in the situation of
connecting every chance of its irregularity to climate change. The temptation to do the same in
this study was intense, but care was taken to present both sides of the climate change argument.
Based on secondary data, this study’s focus went beyond establishing the reality of climate
change, focusing on the role of policy in dealing with the claimed effects of climate change. It
addressed the following two questions: how does the present climatic situation resonate with the
alleged anthropogenic climate change claims? And how has Malawi’s current policy
environment described the country’s adaptation and mitigation ability towards climate change
effects? The rest of the chapter summarizes the answers to these questions by drawing on the
evidence reviewed and discussed above. This is done by looking at the following: the claims of
climate change, apportioning blame for climate change, the evidence of the state of climate
change, global policies towards climate change and Malawi’s policies on climate change. These
have been shortened and categorized as the claims, blames and evidence; the global policies; and
Malawi’s policies.

The Claims, Blames and Evidence

The first chapter laid out the claims on climate change based on a review of the literature.
In general, the claim is twofold: climate is changing and humans are responsible. A look at the
historical eras of Enlightenment, industrialization, and the present era give credence to these
claims and their pointing to human beings as the major culprits of the change. The literature
surfaced no empirical evidence from the first historical era for these claims since they were
solely based on rudimentary observations aided by raw memory. In the second era, however,
pockets of quantitative data started to be created due to the presence of the scientific instruments
made available by the influence of the industrial revolution. The data captured in this era showed
some empirical evidence of the change. In the present era, evidence that is even more empirical
alludes to the changes in climate. Amidst these claims, however, there was and still are opposing
perspectives that object to these claims, and posit that what were and are referred to as climate
changes are only patterns of natural swings in weather. These arguments are not convincing
enough to overturn what the climate change proponents have argued and proved.
Looking at the claims of the industrial era, the theories behind the claims and the findings
of the present age, this study concludes that there is substantial change in climate. The scientific
data in the industrial era, the theories behind the data, and the present experienced phenomena
also verify that the change is caused by humans, the major influencing actors behind this change.
Apart from the existing scientific evidence of the change, the effects connected to this change
such as droughts and floods show a pattern of change that was not there in the past.

The Global Policies

The evidence of humans being the major contributor of the change calls for human
response. The nature of the climate change does not isolate individual nations; the changed
phenomenon is global for we all share the same atmosphere as the earth rotates around the sun.

83
As such, actions for change should be global as well as local. In Chapter Four, we reviewed the
literature on the globally instituted policies, the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol that set the
basic global framework that moderates the climate change agenda. Many countries are
signatories of these frameworks which validate their commitment to changing ways of carrying
out developmental goals since development strategies have substantially contributed to the
change in the climate.
These global frameworks have seen individual countries honor their commitments setting
the necessary policy environment that support the climate change agenda. On a global scale,
countries such as Philippines, Mexico and Chile, all studied in Chapter Four, have shown the
critical role global policies play in influencing domestic policy environment in dealing with
climate change. Drawing from these cases, the analysis concludes that the climate change
agenda’s success resides in its alignment with national policies.

Malawi’s Policies
The policies seen on the global scale have also an effect on the nation of Malawi, which
is a signatory to both UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. In addition, it has several other policy
documents that recognize the climate change agenda on which it was relying for the past years
before it created its specialized climate change agenda policy. This created duplication of efforts
by several policy documents and overlaps of ministry roles and it affected the effectiveness of
the policies’ goals; there was lack of substantial or no funding from the national budget and that
undermined the effectiveness of meeting the needs created by the effects of climate change.
More importantly, the meteorological department in Malawi did not have the necessary
instruments and the professional expertise to lead on this issue. Using Bardach’s eight-fold
policy analysis tool, the study found this to be the immediate problem that the government of
Malawi should undertake to remedy. Malawi may have a well-articulated and encompassing
policy document on climate change, and it may have the most defined leadership on the issue,
but if the meteorological department does not have the required capacity, many of the efforts will
lack efficiency and ultimately they will not be effective. The policy framework in Malawi needs
to be augmented with an improved meteorological department for it to have a better edge dealing
with climate change. Improving the policy framework does not have to mean creating a new
policy tool. Sometimes it only takes little tweaks (Bardach, 2011).

RECOMMENDATIONS
Though the study was based on secondary data, the findings may be of great importance
in dealing with the climate change agenda in Malawi and other countries. Out of the many
lessons learned from this study, the following recommendations represent the most important:

a. The climate change agenda has revealed the concealed ineffectiveness and disjointed
state of socioeconomic and political policies in Malawi. The study depicted some
tragedies such as deaths, health and hunger that would have been prevented if these
policies were effective even amidst climate change. In light of this, therefore, dealing
with the climate change agenda may offer an opportunity to tackle these issues in a new
way and with a new impetus.

b. The available policies in any nation should have a substantial commitment of resources
(financial or institutional) from the government to support implementation of the

84
 strategies proposed by the policies. With only reliance on donor support, leadership of the
climate change agenda may be compromised by designing projects to the liking of the
donor than the government or community’s interests; so, a balance should always be
stricken.

c. Since the meteorological department holds so many of the keys to the success in dealing
with the climate change agenda, the donor community should try to support the climate
change agenda by looking kindly on an earmarking in the national budget for the
meteorological department with a corresponding evaluation plan to track efficiency. This
may ensure an updated department, which is a foundation for efficient and effective
efforts towards the climate change agenda as opposed to directly supporting independent
projects that may create a disconnect with the set goals of the agenda especially if the
department does not have an effective system.

d. Apart from improving the meteorological department, countries should have an

articulated leadership on climate change agenda and a better policy environment
characterized by collaboration and partnerships as seen in the cases of Philippines,
Mexico and Chile.

e. With Philippines, Mexico and Chile as examples, efforts of adaptation and mitigation of
climate change should strive to integrate carrots, sticks and sermon policy characteristics
as way of inducing economic growth for this will benefit the government, investors and
consumers as demonstrated in the Philippines with its Institution Capacity Building
program, Mexico with its Green Mortgage Program and Chile with its Energy Efficiency
programs.

f. Even though the insurance industry is confronted with climate change effects, the donor
community, governments and other stakeholders should explore how insurance can be
made affordable even for the less advantaged people to lessen the degree of the dangers
of climate change effects.

Gaps for future research

According to the literature reviewed in this study, data is lacking on how the process of
policy creation is carried out with the participation of the public. There is only a statement or two
in policy documents that claim that the public was involved in the creation of policies. I suspect
that the lack of public participation is one of the contributing factors to the underperformance of
some policies.

The Study’s Limitations

The study’s reliance on secondary data was the biggest limitation because it drew
conclusions based on what was documented and sometimes that may result in a disconnect with
what is actually occurring on the ground. Efforts were engaged to use what was current such that
data analysis was rigorous validated by the scope and the depth of the cases studied.

85
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