350 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Vouums 17 ‘Methods for Estimating Wind Speed Frequency Distributions C. G, Justus, W. R. Hazoraves, Aum Mrxuan AND DENISE GRABER Schoo of Aerospace Engineering, Georgi Insltule of Technology, Allonte 30332 (Manuscript received 28 June 1977, in fnal form 3 November 1977) ABSTRACT ‘The Weibull function is discussed for representation of the wind speed frequency distribution. Methods are presented for estimating the two Weibull parameters (scale factor cand shape factor 4) fom simple wind statistics. Comparison is made with a recently proposed method based on the square-root-normal dis Uuibution with mean wind speed and fastest mile data as input statistics. The Welbull distribution is shown, to give emaller root-mean-square errors than the square-root-normal distribution when Sitting actual disti- butions of observed wind speed. Another advantage of the Weibull distribution isthe available methodology for projecting to another height the abserved Weibull distibution parameters at ancmometer height 1, Introduction For several years the Weibull distribution has been used to represent wind speed distributions for applica- tion in wind loads studies (Davenport, 1963). Recently, the Weibull distribution has also been found useful and appropriate for wind energy applications (Justus ¢t a. 1976a,b; Hennessey, 1977). The purpose of this report is to point out some of the advantages of the use of the Weibull distribution for these purposes, and to describe some simple methods for estimating the two Weibull parameters from the average wind speed and other simple statistics. ‘The Weibull distribution for wind speed V is ex- pressed by the probability density function (wind speed frequency curve) P(V)AV = (k/e)(V/e) expl—(V/c)*MV, (1) ‘where c is the scale factor (units of speed) and & the shape factor (dimensionless). The equivalent cumula- tive probability function (wind speed duration curve) is P(V)dV = 1—exp[ —(Vs/c)*). wVE V2) @ ‘Advantages of the Weibull distribution are that 1) it is a two-parameter distribution, depending only on ¢ and k [hence more general than the Rayleigh distribu- tion, which has #=2, and easier to work with than the more general bi-variate normal distribution, which requires five parameters], 2) in a wide number of cases, (Justus ef al, 1976a; Hennessey, 1977) the Weibull seems to give a reasonable fit to observed distributions, and 3) with Weibull c and & values known at one height, 4 consistent methodology (Justus and Mikhail, 1976) can be used to adjust these parameters to another (0021-8952/78/0350.0358505.00 (© 1978 American Meteorological Society desired height. The bivariate normal distribution assumes normal distributions for each wind component and requires five parameters for representation: @, 6. 8, oy and pus, Where ow, 0, and pus are, respectively, the standard deviations in « and » and the cross correlation, between u and s. If the simplifying assumptions @=0=pe=0 and ay=e,=0 are made, then the bi- variate normal wind speed distribution reduces to the Rayleigh distribution, which is Eq. (1) with &=2. Allowance for & values other than k=? is an empi ‘means of accounting for situations between these two extremes. 2, Methods for Weibull parameter estimation ‘There are several methods which can be used to estimate the Weibull parameters c and &, depending on which wind statistics are available and’ what level of sophistication in data analysis one wishes to employ. 4. Least-squares fit lo observed distribution—Merop 1 interval 0-V1, Vi-Vs « of occurrence fi, fa, - » Vani-V, having frequencies ‘fo and cumulative frequencies Pim fiy = fit favo bam Poort foy thea Eq. (2) transforms to the linear form yo br by the relations Vey @ ye=ln[—In(l—p)]. “ Best-fit linear coefficient values a and 6 can be found by either an unweighted or frequency-of-occurrence- ‘weighted least-squares process. The Weibull parameters cand & are related to the linear coefficients @ and b by c=exp(—a/b), Ss) heb, ©Maren 1978 sustus, If the observed wind distribution is at the desired height, there is little reason to prefer the Weibull distribution fit over the observed distribution, How- ever, if the wind distribution is desired at some height other than the anemometer level, the advantage of the use of the Weibull distribution is that ¢ and & values éq and k, determined at anemometer height & can be adjusted to any desired height £ by the eelation (Justus and Mikhail, 1976) (2) =c.(6/2.)", O) ‘4(@) =h,[1— 0.088 In (24/10) ]/[1—0.088 In(z/10)], (8) where sand z_ are in meters and the power law exponent ‘mis given by n= [0.37—0.088 Incx]/[1—0.088 In(z./10)]- (9) }, Median ant quartile wind speels~MetHon 2 If the complete observed wind speed distribution is not available but the median speed Vm (50% probable) and quartile speeds Vo. and Ves [p(V Voss)=0.25, P(V Voss) =0.75) are available, then ¢ and & can be HARGRAVES, MIKHAIL AND GRABER 351 ‘n/n 2) (ay Ljungstrom (1976) has used a wind speed distribution formula « (12) which is equivalent to the Weibull with 6=&. 6 Mean wind speed and stondard deviation~MtHOD 3 only the mean wind speed and standard deviation @ are available [where o8=((V—D)), and the angle brackets denote an average], then ¢ and & can be estic ‘mated from these statistics, since ¢ and # are related to Pando by Pact(1+1/e), (a3) (o/PP= (PU 2/8)/T8(4 Y/R) 1, (14) ‘where T is the usual gemma function and ¢/? is the coefficient of variation. The ¢ and & values can best be found by using the approximate relation for (14), ie. ‘computed by the relations b= (o/F (as) se=In{In(0.25)/in(0.73)]/In( Vo.r5/ Vo.as) and the inverse of (13) =1.573/In(Van/ Vers), (a0) Pyra+t/k). (26) ‘Tanue 1. Olnerved mean wind speed, fstest mile and spect dstebution (%) for Concotd, N-H. 7 Wind sped eves (mph) No. Month Year (mph) (om) <3 10S KEDAH 1 Ox on si as HA oS od 992 1000 20 Nw wh 76 S40 142 S983 9 1OM0 3 De wn st ® 359 6159-952 982000 afm tk ws 8 S188 2 100 3 Fb 2 99 3a Na 93 SS 22 983 ‘81 96 10900 6 Mar i 975 16s G3 8671000 7 Age a8 34 89-9 TS 99.6 1000 Soke 2 338 ae 79721000 9 On 2 37 BA OHS 956 06 1000 0 Nw 2 60 2 500788933988 1000 u De «196k wD 48 02 13S 2 1000 2 fn 1382 389 689X994 9821000 BF 9s 9 65 HRS 9911000 4 Ay DB BS GS 87995898 HG 1000 A 1973 34D 710 S64 1000 On ee) Ses 87 ‘980 99.2 1000 2 Now 19136326 43472913 O88 O00 1 De 1936S 8 Ha 718 ott 9921000 » Fo wh Ts 4 3s 73788796982 1000 20 Ma «2 H2 S40 Joo oY 982 ten0 2 Aug 8037 S11 988991000 n On 86 50s $10 9601000 Nw 36D S8 m4 94 (992 1000 % De i 5830 532 81 927 Ra SR 3000 2% Jem itso 508 843940976 9H 1000, % Fh is 838 1 S08 983 982 1000 7 Mar 17s (9038 R367 BT Lo00 2% Aye is 90k 22 96 hs OTS 996 996 1000 29 Aug is S88 soa ars 8S 1000 30 On = 198868 BS 74 964 "580 1000352 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY Votoms 17 ‘Tanne 2. RMS errors of distribution ft (%) for Concord, N. H. data (Table t). Wind speed levels (mph) Method description <5 <0 KIS ks kW cH ‘Weibull feast squares 140263 161 O47 035 O48 0.09007 Square-00t normal 1437 £20 429183056 033 Ol Brand Vox Weibull So7 446° 388 167 085034 Od 007 ve Waal) 388 3430017504701 4. Mean wind speed and fastest mile—MustHon 4 for 7 in meters per second, or Since data listings such as Local Climatological Data [0.707 (low) tive monthly mean wind speed but not the standard b= |0.637* (average) ay deviation, Eqs. (15) and (16) cannot be used unless some estimate of the standard deviation cr equivalent parameter is obtained. Since the monthly fastest mile Vows Caverage speed (mph) associated with most rapid 1 mi run of wind] is routinely published in Local Climatological Data it can be used as an estimator for the Weibull & value. The cumulative probability associated with Vas is PZ Vonos) = 1/(24 Vivexd) = expl—(Vannn/o)*], (17) where d is the number of days per month. The left side of (17) comes from the definition Vase of the fastest mile, be, Vovos(mph)=1(mi)/t(h) oF t= A(mi)/ Vins) and the fact that the probability p(V2 Vine) >is ¥/(24.d). Inversion of (17) to solve for Vinx, and ision by Eq. (13) yields the relation Vaasx/ P= [In(24 Vana) 4/004+1/8), (18) which, for observed 7 and Vis, can be solved itera tively for the appropriate & value. With & thus deter- mined, the Weibull c parameter can be found from (16). Since P(1+1/8)~0.9 over the usual range of & values, approximate solutions to (18) can be found from Re InfIn(24 Vinod) V/n(0.9V yas/V). 9) Widger (1977) recently proposed a similar use of fastest tile data, but he suggested that a “'square-root-normal”” distribution be used, i.e, one in which the square root of the wind speed has a Gaussian distribution, e. Trend of k ss 7—MetHon § Earlier studies (Justus etal, 1976) have determined that a general trend exists between Weibull # values (or variance of the wind distribution) and the mean wind speed. Mathematically these results can be expressed for average, high (90 percentile), and low (10 percentile) variability (ie, /P) sites by 1.0874 (low) b= ]0.94P4 (average) loss" (nigh) (20) [0.497 (high) for V in miles per hour. In (20) or (21) «/F corresponds to high & and vice versa. Thus, with some qualitative estimate of the degree of wind variability of the site, and only the mean wind speed, & can be estimated from (20) or (21) and c can be computed from (16). Another method, potentially more accurate but somewhat more difficult to apply, is the maximum likelihood iteration technique of Takle and Brown (1977), These authors also introduce a third parameter Fe to account for a finite number of absolute calm winds [ive., p'(V)=Fo5(V)4+(1—Fo)p(V), where 6 is the Dirac delta function, p(V) the Weibull distribution, and p’(V) the adjusted distr with extra calms] 3. Comparison of the methods Table 1 (from Widger, 1977) gives observed monthly speed distribution for 30 months from five years of data at Concord, N. H. Using the least-squarés-fit method (method 1) the best Weibull distributions were found and rms errors are given in Table 2, which also gives the results for the square-root-normal distribuition which Widger fit to the data on Table 1 using his mean speed and fastest mile technique. As Widger pointed out, the fit of his model is not especially good for the lowest speed interval. Table 2 also shows approximate Weibull distribution fits using the simple methodologies based on mean speed and fastest mile (method 4) and the trend of & versus mean speed (method 5). In applic tion of method 5, it was observed (based on examination of a few selected months) that the variability for Con- cord fell between the average and 90 percentile levels. Based on these observations, the relation b= 0.5874 (22) ‘was used, where the intermediate value 0.58 provided the best qualitative agreement with the selected sample month data, Comparison of the data from Table 2 shows that either of the simple-method Weibull esti- mates produces @ lower rms error from the observed distribution than does the square-root normal ‘The methods presented here offer options for esti (V in miles per hour)Manes 1978 JUSTUS, HARGRAVES mating Weibull distribution parameters, based_on which wind statisties are available and the rigor required in the data analysis. The simplest methods. (4-and 5) provide reasonably accurate representation of the actual observed distribution Acknonoledgments. Work reported here was sponsored in part under U. S. Energy Research and Development Administration Contract EY-76-S-06-2439. By accept- ance of this article, the publisher and/or recipient acknowledges the U.'S. Government’s right to retain a nonexclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copy- right covering this paper. REFERENCES Davenport, A. G,, 1963: The relationship of wind structure to wind loading’ Prof. Conf. Wind Rgfects on Structures, Nat Phys. Lab, London, England, 19-82, Henneseey, J.P, Je, 1977: Some aspects of wind power statistics, J-Appl. Meter, 16, 119-128, MIKHAIL AND GRABER 353 Justus, C. G., and Amir Mikhail, 1976: Height variation of wind speed and wind distribution statistics. Goplye. Ree, Lal, 3, 261-264, ——, W. R. Hargraves and Ali Yalein, 19768: Nationwide aseess- ‘nent of potential output from wind. powered generators F-Appl Meter, 15, 613-678, |, — and Amir Mikhail, 19760: Reference wind speed ‘istributions and height profiles for wind turbine design and performance evaluation applications, ERDA ORO/S108-76/4 [available from NTIS]. Ljunstzom, 0., 1976: Large scale wind energy conversion system (WECS) ‘design and installation as affected by site wind nergy characteristics, grouping arrangement and social acceptance. Proc. Int, Symp, Wind Energy Systems, British Hydro, Res. Assoe,, Cambridge, England, ALI-A1.33, ‘Table, E. S,, and J. M, Brown: Note on the use of Weibull Slatistied to characteriae wind speed data. Journal papee No, J-8041, Jown Agriculture and Home Econoinies Experi: ment Station, Ames Towa, Project 2116, Widger, W. K., Je, 1977: Kstimations of wind speed frequency distributions using only the monthly average and fastest mile data, J. App. Meteo, 16, 204-247