TS FORECASTS Quarter Didgest - Apr2020

QUARTER DIDGEST
TIMING SOLUTION FORECASTS FOR 12-24 MONTHS
PREPARED BY
TS FORECASTS telegram channel
APRIL 2020
CONTENT
VIX .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2
10-years T-Bonds. ............................................................................................................................................................................ 4
GOLD. ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 8
SILVER. .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 12
COPPER. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 16
NATURAL GAS............................................................................................................................................................................... 18
CRUDE OIL. ................................................................................................................................................................................... 20
SnP500. .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 24
DJI................................................................................................................................................................................................... 27
FTSE. .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 29
DAX................................................................................................................................................................................................. 31
NIKKEI. ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 33
EURUSD. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 35
GBPUSD. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 37
USDJPY. ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 39
AUDUSD. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 41
USDCAD. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 43
USDCHF. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 45
BTCUSD. ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 47
1
VIX
The index is slowing down in accordance with a number of projection curves. As it is often similar to composite and
highly liquid instruments VIX as well is affected by annual cycle curve.
I expect local low set by the end of April and, next in a middle of June. It corresponds to forecasts of SPX and DJI. As
you can see April 21st-22nd is common for Spectrum projection line too.
2
The same low is confirmed by Q-Spectrum projection line with another low in a middle of May more appropriate to
buy. If all three lines are combined it will be obvious that three opportunities to buy are detected the first of which is
dated on April 21st-22nd .
Recommendations: stay short and turn into long positions from the third decade of April.
3
10-years T-Bonds.
Monthly time frame picture tells us that Notes go through turning upward point. Further move looks quite fluctuate
with peak by a middle of 2024.
The similar forecast is confirmed by another setup projection line calculated via Spectrum module as well. The increase
is expected up to the end of 2023 that is close at this time frame to the first projection line.
However, it is highly probable that local low will be set by the end of 2021. If we combine both curves it becomes more
probable that for the next 1.5 years up-n-down swings are expected with sharp increase from the end of 2021.
4
Though such fluctuations might be quite sizable in terms of price levels that. Weekly time frame. It confirms that price
chart enters turning point period.
Daily time frame. Annual fast curve (SM=8) produces strong buy signal for a short-run period with the second turning
up point from late August.
5
Q-Spectrum module projection line undermines long positions from a middle of June.
Combined picture make June more preferable for a long-run purchases.
6
Thus, what we have from all three time frames projection lines? First, T-Notes turns into 3-years rising trend with the
most resulted growth after 2022. Second, there are to major lows to work out this 3-years trend: for coming two
months (Apr-June) and by the Dec 2020 – Jan 2021. Third, more sufficient ground to buy is going to be accomplished
by June 2020 while from current dates T-Notes may set a global low.
7
GOLD.
Weekly time frame. Price is certainly in turning down point. This scenario is supported by several setups calculated
both via Spectrum and Q-Spectrum modules. This is setup-1 smooth projection line which quite sharply catches all
major highs and lows.
As you can see price currently turns down into 2 years decline with the only high in addition to the one nowadays.
Attempting to detail projection curve I found setup-2 which was calculated by Spectrum [red] and Q-Spectrum [green]
modules. Such a double high projected by different modules based on the same setup indicates that new high (if
accomplished) is going to be the best sale opportunity for the next two years at least.
Further, these two lines go in line with setup-1 forecast and undermine bullish bounce starting n the end of 2020 year
for several months. It must be considered as the second sale point opportunity.
8
So, keep in mind that sale points identified at low time frames might be used to work out such a long-run declining
trend and close short positions in the second half of 2021.
Let’s verify these assumptions at daily time frame. As usual, it starts from Natural cycles which perfectly affect
commodities and Gold in particular. Price has already entered turning down point which might occur a global high for
a few years.
Two different setups for both modules generate similar results.
9
Combined with annual fast curve we can see that all them correspond to weekly projection lines: decline up to the end
of this year and, then, bullish bounce for a few months, but prior further long-run drop.
Points of lines coincidence especially at different time frames are the strongest trade opportunities. Thus, it might be
claimed that 22nd-23rd of March 2021 a start of considerable drop in Gold prices is expected. Before that quite dynamic
growth from Dec 10th 2020 will be completed. From now sales toward Dec 2020 targets are reasonable from turning
points detected at intraday time frames.
Next, what takes attention is intermarket analysis between Gold and Silver. There are several lags of strong correlation
in these instruments, and all them undermine soon price decline with bullish turning point in the end of May.
10
Thus, come to the conclusion that a drop from the next week is expected with bullish opportunity from 20ths of May.
11
SILVER.
Weekly time frame. AG certainly turns upward to further increase till October 2020 at least. After short-run cutback in
November the second bullish phase will be realized. Yet, take note that major trend till the end of 2021 is declining, so
in March 2021 and June 2021 there will be two points to enter short to work out this drop and close by November
2021.
Verification at daily time frame provides close results. Again, start from Natural cycles, which as you see strongly affect
this instrument as well as many of liquid commodities. Even from this annual curve we may conclude expected at
weekly time frame increase till October, short-run drop by Dec and further bullish bounce.
12
This annual line forecast is verified by Spectrum projection lines. Here they are:
I have two setups confirming current increase will continue till the first decade of October and all other turning points
as well. Moreover, it looks like instrument hasn’t still achieved its bullish turning points to trade the first phase of
growth. It is more reasonable to look for long positions from beginning of May till a middle of June. To get sharp dates
we need to be followed by intraday forecasts.
Yet, if we combine these two Spectrum lines with annual curve it becomes obvious that price is going to make one
more cutback before get attractive for buy. More focus on this opportunity from a middle of May after annual curve
will set a low.
13
Let me remind you that this scenario goes in line with Gold’s forecast depicted below (annual curve [blue] and
Spectrum line [green]): cutback from coming days, bullish turning point in the end of May and further growth till
September.
Earlier we investigated intermarket correlation between Gold and Silver. What about inverted connections? Well, it
confirms bullish opportunities in the beginning of June and in August (compare with Spectrum projection line above).
Thus, wait for cutback, start looking for bullish opportunities from a middle of May till June and, then, add in August
to take profit by the end of September. Next, work out bullish bounce in Dec 2020 – Jan 2021 to fix result by Feb 2021
and turn bearish till the second half of 2021.
14
15
COPPER.
Weekly time frame. Price is coming to bullish turning point dated on 20ths of May. After that we’ll get an opportunity
to work out rising trend till the end of Nov 2020 and turn bearish into drop up to the end of the 1 st quarter 2021.
Daily time frame picture corresponds to weekly forecast with more sharp dates of turning points. Natural cycles fast
annual curve as usual for commodities provides quite accurate projection line according which one more decline phase
is expected and bullish turning point (detected at weekly time frame in late May) dates on a middle of June. Bearish
reversal in the end of the year is expected in the middle of Dec 2020.
16
Thought annual curve is often very precise its projection at daily time frames must be supported by Spectrum and/or
Q-Spectrum modules. Here it is:
Q-Spectrum projection line confirms bullish turning point by 10th of June and next bearish reversal in the end of Nov
2020. Being combined annual and Q-Spectrum lines has a strong coincident bullish turning point dated from 9th to 15th
of June 2020.
Further bearish turning point exact dates depends on what curve occurs more precise. This line adjusted to price
history will let us calculate in a few months the time period of the highest probability when price chart turns down.
17
NATURAL GAS.
Weekly time frame. Price is currently in bullish turning point after which an increase is expected till September. Then,
bearish stage till May 2021 and quite dynamic growth till the end of 2021.
According to projection lines at daily time frames price hasn’t turned up yet. Here we have annual curve [blue] and
Spectrum line [red]. Expected reversal dates to a middle of May, while the growth phase will be completed by 20ths
of September. After that next bearish opportunity will start to realize till Feb 2021.
18
However, dominant cycles for these daily projection lines amount for less than a year. So, after LBC is shifted turning
point for the next 12 months might be changed as well. Thus, depicted daily forecast has the highest probability to
bearish turning point in September.
19
CRUDE OIL.
Weekly time frame. Price is turning up into a year increasing trend till Apr-June 2021. The question about low
determination is still open at least till the end of May. Anyway, from viewpoint of potential move it is more reasonable
to start working on bullish reversal and looking for long positions.
Verification this forecast at daily time frame provides close results. Natural cycles fast annual curve support current
growth till 20th of April, while further decline might lead to a new low. From this viewpoint it is reasonable to buy long-
run bullish trend from a middle of June.
20
The same outcome generated by Spectrum and Q-Spectrum projection lines. Wait for decline from 20ths of April, wait
for local or a global new low is set and only after that from 10 th to 16th of June start to look for long positions to work
out the whole increasing phase till Nov 2020.
If we look at daily forecasts at higher scale, then the first targets are dated in beginning of November while weekly
projection lines support the idea of further growth till April 2021. Well, after LBC is shifted in a few months the bearish
turning point might changed too.
21
In addition to the lines provided above we have one more analysis that could efficiently project further move. This is
intermarket similarity of CL with NG. Let’s have a look at the results. As you can see the idea of a year rising trend
from current dates is strongly supported by correlation of Cl with NG.
There is another important intermarket correlation of CL with Gold. This kind of pair analysis supports the idea of
further decline after current increase which is going to be accomplished by July.
22
This is not a controversial because if we look at daily forecasts then you find out that it indeed implies a short-run
decline from Aug till Oct 2020. It is better to orient on calculated projection lines rather than similarity since the last
one might be used to support the major forecast, but not as a base for projection.
23
SnP500.
Weekly time frame projection lines tell us that current bounce is just a short-run stage within extremely bearish trend
till the end of this year. Only the first decade of Dec 2020 provides an opportunity to buy for the next 4 months. Yet,
almost exactly in a year on 20th of April another drop is expected probably more dramatic than the one in March 2020.
Let’s find profs for this forecast at daily time frame. Start from the end: April 26th is forecasted as a global high for the
next considerable drop. So we may state that bearish reversal is expected from 20 th to 26th of April 2021. Next, before
this drop we’ll have quite dynamic growth from 20ths of Dec 2020 till 20ths April 2021.
All this corresponds not only to the forecast calculated at weekly time frame, but fast annual curve depicted below.
24
Combined with Q-Spectrum line both projection curves have similar turning points. Take note that bearish reversal in
2021 might occur from 12th to 19th of Feb as well.
However, let’s consider more thoroughly what is forecasted prior Dec rally. At weekly time frame we have strong short
till the end of the year with a couple of bullish bounces. If we compare this curve with the ones at daily time frame
then it becomes highly probable that what was seen at weekly chart as bullish bounce from Aug 2020 seems to be the
actual bullish turning point with the second opportunity to work out the rising trend in late Dec 2020.
Thus, it is highly probable that current decline will be completed by August 2020 and from 5th to 22nd of Aug we’ll have
an opportunity to turn into long positions for the next 6 moths.
25
As for expectations for coming weeks and months, then from 20ths of April bearish positions are recommended to
trade further decline till August 2020.
26
DJI.
Weekly time frame forecast for DJI corresponds in terms of key dates with the forecast for SPX: bullish turn by Aug
2020, the second bullish trading opportunity in a middle of Dec 2020 and, then, two milestones: 21st of Feb 2021 and
25th of Apr 2021.
Daily time frame. Fast annual curve indicates that swinging flat or further declines is expected till a middle of August.
Pay attention that this curve calculates 20th of Feb 2021 and 21 of Aprl 2021 as strong bearish turning points.
27
Generally this scenario fits the one produced by Spectrum and Q-Spectrum projection lines. We have soon reversal by
the 5th of May further decline and the first bullish opportunity in the end of July 2020. The second bullish windows will
open in a middle of Dec 2020
Any purchases must be closed prior two important time periods that were repeatedly underlined at other instruments
forecasts: 20ths of Feb 2021 and 20ths of Apr 2021. The second dates are looked more crucial for further drop.
28
FTSE.
At weekly time frame index is increasing within bullish bounce which is going to be completed by 24th of May. Further
move looks bearish. The only exception we’ll have from 10th of Dec 2020 to 10th of Feb 2021 when the second bullish
bounce is expected. However, there are two strong bearish turning points on 10th of Feb 2021 and 11th of Apr 2021.
Further decline has the first targets dates in the second half of 2022.
Daily time frame. Again, perfectly working in liquid index and commodities Natural cycles fast annual curve completely
corresponds to weekly forecast. We have soon reversal by the end of April, a couple of swings till the first bullish
opportunity on 23rd of Aug 2020 and the second one from 12 th of Dec 2020. Also there two strong bearish turning
points on 19th of Feb 2021 and 21st of Apr 2021.
29
Spectrum and Q-Spectrum projection lines indicate that some kind of downshifting flat is expected till the end of this
year and only from Nov 2020 it will become reasonable to look for long positions for a short-run increasing trend.
30
DAX.
At weekly time frame DAX obviously has a very strong bearish turning point in the end of June 2020. Unlike other
indexes which from this time period are expected to start the first recovery attempts this index is going to fall up to
the end of this year. On the other hand, it is highly probable that DAX will be chosen by investors as a safe haven
during drop in 2021. There is no any substantial signals of that decline in DAX. Moreover, the whole tendency for 2021
is going to be positive.
Let’s verify this scenario at daily time frame. Traditionally start from Natural cycles. Here it is.
31
Definitely we have bearish phase lasting till 18th of March 2021. Pay attention that other indexes have strong bearish
turning points by this time period while DAX has bullish one.
Despite the fact that this year is almost completely bearish for DAX it has more bullish turning points for the next 12
months than any other index. Spectrum [green] and Q-Spectrum [pink] lines support this forecast.
It looks like some fundamental reasons are going to strongly affect Germany this year and its index unlike others will
reach its low targets by the end of 2020 while the rest of the world is going to do that from April 2021 till the second
half of 2022. Probably the world economic crisis will involve focus shift to of essential consuming goods production
which highly developed in Germany.
32
NIKKEI.
Weekly time frame. Japan has the most stable declining projection line at this time frame. It isn’t constrained by
presented time horizon and will continue till 2030. There are many bearish turning points expected for this period and
even current price level will be attractive to sell.
Daily time frame. Annual curve projects soon reversal into flat from the 10 th of May and quite strong bearish turning
point in the end of September 2020.
As for Spectrum and Q-Spectrum projection lines, they forecast undermines flat or decline for coming months. Among
all the swings there are bearish TP in late July 2020 and intermediate bullish TP in early Nov 2020, which wouldn’t
33
recommended to trade long since this index has a strong negative trend. Thus, it is more reasonable to work out
bearish turning points only.
34
EURUSD.
Weekly time frame. Pair is currently within bullish turning period which is expected to complete by 19th of May.
Forthcoming rise has the first targets located at 1.2565 and 1.3000.
Daily time frame. Annual curve suggests to wait for 11th of May before start looking for long positions. The second
bullish annual TP dates to 18th of August.
Almost the same results are calculated by Spectrum and Q-Spectrum modules. Wait for the last week of April to start
looking for buys.
35
36
GBPUSD.
Weekly time frame. Pound has one of the strongest turning points both bullish (from a middle of June 2020) and
bearish (from a middle of Aug 2021 or Dec 2021). It is left a few time to enter long into June’s turning point.
Daily time frame. Natural cycles annual curve indicates bearish TP on 16th of April and bullish opportunities in the end
of May and a middle of Aug 2020.
Spectrum’s lines suggest to wait for 06th of May low to start searching bullish opportunities. At the same time at daily
chart we have quite strong bearish signal to sell late July 2020. Looking at weekly forecast we come to the conclusion
37
that it doesn’t mean another new low. It will more probable a kind of corrective cutback after increase started in May-
June 2020.
38
USDJPY.
Weekly time frame. Pair is declining till the end of this year. We have a number of bearish opportunities to trade this
expected decline: from current dates and from 08th of July 2020. Further, a strong increase is expected from the end
of Nov 2020 to 20th of June 2021.
Daily time frame. Annual curve expects soon bearish reversal from 06th of May and, then, a couple of swings up and
down till bullish turning point by 12th of Aug 2020.
Quite similar results are obtained by Spectrum’s calculations. Bearish reversal is expected a little earlier from 19 th of
April. Next, bullish opportunity dates to early Aug 2020 and, finally bearish turning point by late Sept 2020.
39
40
AUDUSD.
Daily time frame. As you can see the Spectrum’s forecast implies many up and down swings for the next two years.
The same picture is given by Natural cycles annual curve:
Combination of these two lines gives some coincident dates. These are the time period of the highest probability
forecasted move.
41
42
USDCAD.
Weekly time frame. Pair is coming to bearish turning point which ought to be executed prior the end of May 2020.
Further trend is downshifting and is going to be accomplished by June 2021 with further bullish reversal.
Daily time frame. Annual curve gives a signal for bullish reversal till the end of May 2020. From there in accordance
with weekly forecast strong bearish reversal is expected.
Spectrum’s projection lines indicate that bearish reversal is going to be completed by 18th of April. So, we have deviation
in bearish TP dates. Thus, it is reasonable to trade both short opportunities calculated by these and annual lines.
43
44
USDCHF.
Weekly time frame. Soon bearish reversal is expected in the end of May 2020. In general, further fluctuated move is
expected with a number turning points. For coming months till the end of the year it is more reasonable to look for
bearish opportunities.
Daily time frame. Annual curve predicts bearish reversal on 23rd of April and further decline till a middle of June 2020.
Spectrum and Q-Spectrum lines show soon bearish reversal as well with further decline accomplished by the end of
June 2020.
45
46
BTCUSD.
BTC history data is too short to calculate weekly forecast. Thus, only daily projections are available. According to
Spectrum’s lines currency entered bearish turning point with targets dates on the first decade of June 2020. After that
a strong bullish reversal is expected whish is completed 21st of Aug 2020. That will be the next bearish TP.
Annual curve provides a little different from this forecast. According natural cycles line current increase will continue
till beginning of June 2020 to reverse into long-run bearish trend then.
47
CONTACTS:
https://t.me/timingsol
IVANOV SERGEY (channel’s author, analyst and trader)
ivserega@gmail.com
48

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QUARTER DIDGEST

TIMING SOLUTION FORECASTS FOR 12-24 MONTHS

TS FORECASTS telegram channel

Combined picture make June more preferable for a long-run purchases.

Two different setups for both modules generate similar results.

The same picture is given by Natural cycles annual curve:

TS FORECASTS telegram channel

IVANOV SERGEY (channel’s author, analyst and trader)

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