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Original Research

Journal of Intensive Care Medicine


1-7
Comparative Prognostic Accuracy of Risk ª The Author(s) 2019
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Prediction Models for Cardiogenic Shock DOI: 10.1177/0885066619878125
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Robert J. H. Miller, MD1 , Danielle Southern, MSc2,


Stephen B. Wilton, MD1,2, Matthew T. James, MD2,3,
Bryan Har, MD1, Greg Schnell, MD1, Sean van Diepen, MD, Msc4,
and Andrew D. M. Grant, MD1

Abstract
Objectives: Despite advances in medical therapy, reperfusion, and mechanical support, cardiogenic shock remains associated
with excess morbidity and mortality. Accurate risk stratification may improve patient management. We compared the accuracy of
established risk scores for cardiogenic shock. Methods: Patients admitted to tertiary care center cardiac care units in the
province of Alberta in 2015 were assessed for cardiogenic shock. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II
(APACHE-II), CardShock, intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) Shock II, and sepsis-related organ failure assessment (SOFA) risk
scores were compared. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess discrimination of in-hospital mortality and
compared using DeLong’s method. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Results: The
study included 3021 patients, among whom 510 (16.9%) had cardiogenic shock. Patients with cardiogenic shock had longer median
hospital stays (median 11.0 vs 4.1 days, P < .001) and were more likely to die (29.0% vs 2.5%, P < .001). All risk scores were
adequately calibrated for predicting hospital morality except for the APACHE-II score (Hosmer-Lemeshow P < .001). Dis-
crimination of in-hospital mortality with the APACHE-II (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66-
0.76) and IABP-Shock II (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.68-0.77) scores were similar, while the CardShock (AUC: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.72-0.81)
and SOFA (AUC: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.72-0.81) scores had better discrimination for predicting in-hospital mortality. Conclusions: In a
real-world population of patients with cardiogenic shock, existing risk scores had modest prognostic accuracy, with no clear
superior score. Further investigation is required to improve the discriminative abilities of existing models or establish novel
methods.

Keywords
cardiogenic shock, risk prediction, shock, acute coronary syndrome

Introduction
Cardiogenic shock is the most common cause of death in
patients following acute myocardial infarction (MI).1,2 Despite
major advances in the treatment of MI and heart failure, the 1
Department of Cardiac Sciences, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta,
prognosis of patients who develop cardiogenic shock remains Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
2
poor.3 Prompt revascularization and hemodynamic support Department of Community Health Sciences, O’Brien Institute for Public
Health, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta,
may stabilize and facilitate recovery in some patients with
Canada
cardiogenic shock4; however, there is a subset of patients who 3
Department of Medicine, Libin Cardiovascular Institute of Alberta, Cumming
will require prolonged use of inotropic medications, mechani- School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
cal circulatory support (MCS), or even heart transplantation.5 4
Division of Cardiology, Department of Critical Care, Faculty of Medicine,
These more aggressive treatments are resource-intensive and University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
have an increased risk of complications.3 Accurately identify- Received May 29, 2019. Received revised July 10, 2019.
ing patients in cardiogenic shock at the highest risk may help Accepted September 04, 2019.
target aggressive therapies, potentially improving outcomes
while minimizing costs and complications associated with Corresponding Author:
Andrew D. M. Grant, Department of Cardiac Sciences, Libin Cardiovascular
unnecessary interventions.6 Institute of Alberta, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Room
Multiple risk prediction tools for patients with shock have C-835, 1403–29th Street NW, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 2Y8.
been developed. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Email: andrew.grant@albertahealthservices.ca
2 Journal of Intensive Care Medicine XX(X)

Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) and Sequential Organ Failure coronary syndrome (ACS), cardiomyopathy, or dysrhythmias
Assessment (SOFA) scores were originally derived for use in were included in the analysis. Early revascularization was
a broader group of critically ill general medical and surgical defined as percutaneous coronary intervention or coronary
patients.7,8 Initial studies investigating their utility in patients artery bypass grafting occurring within 12 hours of admission
with cardiogenic shock showed only modest predictive perfor- to CCU.4
mance.9 Subsequently, the CardShock score was derived in a Medical comorbidities including cardiovascular risk factors
cohort of patients with all causes of cardiogenic shock and (hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, family history, and
reported improved discrimination compared to the APACHE- smoking history) and other comorbidities (cerebrovascular dis-
II score with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 and 0.76, ease, peripheral vascular disease, chronic lung disease, chronic
respectively.10 Importantly, the authors noted that the Card- renal failure, chronic liver disease, malignancy, and deep vein
Shock score did not perform as well in a validation cohort with thrombosis/pulmonary embolism) were determined through
an AUC of 0.71.10 More recently, data from the intra-aortic linkage with the Alberta Provincial Project for Outcome
balloon pump (IABP) in cardiogenic Shock II (IABP-ShockII) Assessment in Coronary Heart Disease (APPROACH) data-
was used to develop a risk score which may have improved base. The APPROACH database prospectively collects data
discriminatory value.11 External validation of these scores in an on all patients undergoing cardiac catheterization in Alberta15
unselected tertiary care population of patients presenting with and has been successfully linked with several other adminis-
cardiogenic shock is lacking and their comparative prognostic trative databases previously for clinical research.16 Trained
accuracy remains unclear.12 physicians or technicians enter demographics, medical history,
This study was a retrospective cohort study of patients pre- and angiographic characteristics.17 Use of inotropic or vaso-
senting with cardiogenic shock to tertiary care coronary care pressor support was captured within the TRACER database.
units (CCUs) in Alberta, Canada. The study aim was to exter- Use of an inotrope for less than 60 consecutive minutes was
nally validate the performance of 4 existing risk models for not included. Milrinone, dobutamine, and dopamine were con-
discriminating all-cause mortality in patients with cardiogenic sidered inotropic supports and norepinephrine, vasopressin,
shock and to compare their prognostic performance. and epinephrine were considered vasopressor supports. All
patients who were managed with IABP, Impella (Impella CP;
Abiomed, Aachen, Germany), extracorporeal membrane oxy-
Materials and Methods genation (ECMO), or surgical left ventricular assist device
(LVAD) implantation during the index hospitalization were
Patient Population classified as MCS recipients.
Patients admitted to a tertiary care CCU in Alberta between The APPROACH database to determine the primary out-
January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were identified. Two comes of all-cause in-CCU and in-hospital mortality identified
centers (Foothills Medical Center and Mazankowski Heart through a quarterly linkage with the Alberta Bureau of Vital
Institute) were included, which provide advanced cardiology Statistics. APACHE-II and SOFA scores are recorded in the
coverage to over 4 million people through a centralized referral TRACER database by the initial attending physician.7 Existing
system. Patient demographics, admission date, admission diag- clinical information was used to determine the CardShock and
nosis, and discharge date were retrieved for the TRACER data- IABP-ShockII scores.8 Components included in the risk scores
base which prospectively collects information on patients are summarized in Supplemental Table 1. Lactate and glucose
admitted to tertiary care CCUs in Alberta. Data automatically were not collected in all patients with cardiogenic shock (miss-
collected in the TRACER database has shown high agreement ing in 10 and 18, respectively) and were assumed to be normal
with manually collected data, including the APACHE-II and for the purpose of risk score calculation. In patients presenting
SOFA scores.13 Clinical information including vital signs, use with a non-ACS diagnosis without coronary angiography,
of inotropic or vasopressor support, MCS, and laboratory thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) flow grade was
investigations throughout admission were used to identify assumed to be 3. Patients presenting with ACS who died prior
patients with evidence of cardiogenic shock. Patients were to coronary angiography (n ¼ 10) were assumed to have TIMI
classified as cardiogenic shock if they met a modified defini- flow grade <3.
tion of the Should We Emergently Revascularize Occluded
Coronaries for Cardiogenic Shock (SHOCK) trial clinical cri-
teria for enrollment. This included sustained systolic blood
Statistical Methods
pressure (SBP) <90 mm Hg for at least 30 minutes or required Our primary analysis was performed on the subset of patients
inotropic or MCS to maintain a SBP >90 mm Hg with evidence with cardiogenic shock. Categorical variables were summar-
of end-organ hypoperfusion.4 Markers of end-organ dysfunc- ized as number (proportion) and were compared with a Fisher
tion included elevated lactate (>2.0 mmol/L),4 reduced urine exact test. Continuous variables had a nonparametric distribu-
output (defined as <0.5 mL/kg/h for at least 6 hours), or acute tion and therefore were summarized as median (interquartile
kidney injury based on Kidney Disease Improving Global Out- range) and compared with a Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Receiver-
comes definition.14 Admission diagnoses were reviewed and operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for
patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis including acute each of the risk scores, applying them as continuous variables.
Miller et al 3

Table 1. Overall Patient Characteristics.a

All Patients, n ¼ 3021 Cardiogenic Shock, n ¼ 510 No Cardiogenic Shock, N ¼ 2511 P Value

Age (years), median (IQR) 64.1 (54.5-74.9) 65.8 (55.8-75.8) 63.5 (54.2-74.6) .009
Male gender, n (%) 2172 (71.9%) 362 (70.9%) 1810 (72.1%) .627
CCU length of stay (days), median (IQR) 1.9 (1.2-3.0) 3.2 (1.6-5.9) 1.8 (1.2-2.7) <.001
Hospitalization length (days), median (IQR) 4.7 (2.9-9.7) 11.0 (5.0-24.0) 4.1 (2.8-7.8) <.001
ACS presentation, n (%) 2224 (73.6%) 292 (57.2%) 1932 (76.9%) <.001
Early revascularization, n (%) 2004 (90.1%) 246 (84.2%) 1758 (91.0%) <.001
Hypertension, n (%) 1026 (34.0%) 102 (20.0%) 924 (36.8%) <.001
Diabetes, n (%) 421 (13.9%) 47 (9.2%) 374 (14.9%) .001
Dyslipidemia, n (%) 721 (23.9%) 51 (10.0%) 670 (26.7%) <.001
History of CAD, n (%) 1552 (51.4%) 129 (25.3%) 1423 (56.7%) <.001
History of CHF, n (%) 261 (8.6%) 73 (14.3%) 188 (7.5%) <.001
APACHE-II score, median (IQR) 10 (7-12) 14 (10-20) 9 (7-11) <.001
CardShock score, median (IQR) 1 (1-2) 2 (1-3) 1 (1-2) <.001
IABP-Shock II score, median (IQR) 0 (0-1) 1 (0-2) 0 (0-1) <.001
SOFA score, median (IQR) 2 (2-4) 6 (3-8) 2 (2-3) <.001
Abbreviations: ACS, acute coronary syndrome; APACHE-II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II; CAD, coronary artery disease; CCU, coronary
care unit; CHF, congestive heart failure; IQR, interquartile range; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
a
Continuous variables are shown as median (interquartile range). Categorical variables are shown as number (proportion).

The AUC for each ROC curve was compared to the values Risk Score Comparison
obtained for each alternate score using the method described
The individual risk score ROC curves for in-hospital mortality
by DeLong et al18 The calibration of the risk scores was
are shown in Figure 1 and Table 3. The APACHE-II score
assessed across risk deciles using the Hosmer-Lemeshow
demonstrated modest discrimination and poor calibration for
goodness-of-fit (GOF) test. Separate subgroup analyses were
performed stratified by the presence of MCS and ACS. All in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0.71, 95% confidence interval
statistical tests were 2-sided and P values of < .05 were con- [CI]: 0.66-0.76, GOF P < .001). The discrimination of the
sidered statistically significant. All analyses were performed CardShock (AUC: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.72-0.81, GOF P ¼ .628),
using Stata/IC version 13.1 (StataCorp, College Station, IABP-ShockII (AUC: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.68-0.77, GOF P ¼ .222),
Texas). This study was approved by the institutional review and SOFA score (AUC: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.72-0.81, GOF
board at the University of Calgary. P ¼ .637) were similar and adequately calibrated. Calibration
graphs for in-hospital mortality are shown in Figure 2. In all
models, there was a trend toward overestimating risk in the
Results higher risk categories.
Patient Population The ROC curves for in-CCU mortality are shown in Figure 3.
A total of 3021 patients were admitted to the CCU during the The calibration of the APACHE-II score for CCU mortality was
study period, among whom 510 (16.9%) had cardiogenic poor (AUC: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.69-0.81, GOF P < .001) and
shock. Baseline population characteristics for all patients are discrimination of the CardShock (AUC: 0.75, 95%
shown in Table 1. Patients with cardiogenic shock were more CI: 0.70-0.81, GOF P ¼ .851), IABP-ShockII (AUC: 0.72,
frequently older, had fewer preadmission comorbidities, longer 95% CI: 0.67-0.78, GOF P ¼ .240), and SOFA scores
median hospital stays (median: 11.0 vs 4.1 days, P < .001), and (AUC: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.74-0.84, GOF P ¼ .805) were similar
were more likely to die (29.0% vs 2.5%, P < .001). Baseline and adequately calibrated.
population characteristics for patients with cardiogenic shock
stratified by survival status are presented in Table 2. Among
the 510 patients with cardiogenic shock, 148 (29.0%) died in- Subgroup Analyses
hospital, with 103 (20.2%) dying in CCU. In unadjusted anal-
yses, patients who died in hospital were more frequently older Performance of the risk scores was also assessed in strata
and more likely to require inotropic support (56.1% vs 36.5%, defined by the use of MCS (Supplemental Table 2). There were
P < .001), vasopressor support (87.8% vs 66.0%, P < .001), or no significant differences between AUC of scores in patients
mechanical ventilation (62.8% vs 34.8%, P < .001). Mechan- with or without MCS. The prognostic accuracy of all models
ical circulatory support use was not more common in patients was also examined in patients with and without ACS (Supple-
who survived (35.1% vs 27.7%, P ¼ .120), although LVAD mental Table 3). Model performance was not significantly dif-
implantation was (8.3% vs 2.0%, P < .001). There was a trend ferent in patients with or without an underlying diagnosis of
toward more frequent early revascularization in patients with ACS. However, there was a trend toward higher c-statistic in
ACS who survived to discharge (87.1% vs 77.8%, P ¼ .055). patients with ACS.
4 Journal of Intensive Care Medicine XX(X)

Table 2. Baseline Patient Characteristics for Patients With Cardiogenic Shock.a

All Patients, Survived to Discharge, In-hospital Mortality,


N ¼ 510 n ¼ 362 (71.0%) n ¼ 148 (29.0%) P Value

Age (years), median (IQR) 65.8 (55.8-75.8) 64.7 (54.1-74.0) 69.4 (60.7-79.1) <.001
Male, n (%) 362 (70.9%) 266 (73.5%) 96 (65.0%) .054
CCU length of stay (days), median (IQR) 3.2 (1.6-5.9) 3.6 (1.9-6.0) 2.7 (0.9-5.4) <.001
Hospitalization length (days), median (IQR) 11.0 (5.0-24.0) 12.8 (7.6-29.9) 4.2 (1.5-12.6) <.001
ACS presentation, n (%) 292 (57.3%) 202 (55.8%) 90 (60.8%) .325
Early revascularization, n (%) 246 (84.2%) 176 (87.1%) 70 (77.8%) .055
Inotropic support, n (%) 215 (42.2%) 132 (36.5%) 83 (56.1%) <.001
Vasopressor support, n (%) 369 (72.4%) 239 (66.0%) 130 (87.8%) <.001
Any MCS, n (%) 168 (32.9%) 127 (35.1%) 41 (27.7%) .120
IABP support, n (%) 129 (25.3%) 96 (26.5%) 33 (22.3%) .369
Impella support, n (%) 14 (2.8%) 6 (4.1%) 8 (2.2%) .246
LVAD, n (%) 33 (6.5%) 30 (8.3%) 3 (2.0%) <.009
ECMO, n (%) 6 (1.2%) 3 (0.8%) 3 (2.0%) .363
Ventilation, n (%) 219 (42.9%) 126 (34.8%) 93 (62.8%) <.001
Therapeutic hypothermia, n (%) 42 (8.2%) 24 (6.6%) 18 (12.2%) .050
Hypertension, n (%) 102 (20.0%) 80 (22.1%) 22 (14.9%) .068
Diabetes, n (%) 52 (9.2%) 39 (9.4%) 13 (8.8%) 1.000
Dyslipidemia, n (%) 51 (10.0%) 40 (11.1%) 11 (7.4%) .256
History of CAD, n (%) 129 (25.3%) 97 (26.8%) 32 (21.6%) .262
History of CHF, n (%) 73 (14.3%) 58 (16.0%) 15 (10.1%) .095
APACHE-II score, median (IQR) 14 (10-20) 13 (9-17) 19 (11-27) <.001
CardShock score, median (IQR) 2 (1-3) 2 (1-3) 3 (2-4) <.001
IABP-Shock II score, median (IQR) 1 (0-2) 1 (0-1) 2 (1-3) <.001
SOFA score, median (IQR) 6 (3-8) 3 (5-7) 8 (6-11) <.001
Abbreviations: ACS, acute coronary syndrome; APACHE-II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II; CAD, coronary artery disease; CCU, coronary
care unit; CHF, congestive heart failure; ECMO, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; IABP, intra-aortic balloon pump; IQR, interquartile range; LVAD, left
ventricular assist device; MCS, mechanical circulatory support; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
a
Continuous variables are shown as median (interquartile range). Categorical variables are shown as number (proportion).

our study, there was no clearly superior score with respect to


discriminating in-CCU or in-hospital mortality. However, the
APACHE-II score was poorly calibrated suggesting that it may
not be appropriate to apply in patients with cardiogenic shock.
Our results highlight the importance of external validation for
risk scores, ideally in the population in which it will be applied,
before implementation into clinical care.12
There have been several attempts at generating cardiogenic
shock risk scores and it is not clear why existing risk scores
have performed poorly to date. We found no clear superior risk
score despite different derivation cohorts and model selection
methods. Cardiogenic shock populations likely have high lev-
els of heterogeneity, so it may be that no single derivation
Figure 1. Receiver-operating characteristic curves for predicting
cohort is entirely reflective of an external population. This is
in-hospital mortality. APACHE-II indicates Acute Physiology and evidenced by the relatively high proportion of ACS in our
Chronic Health Evaluation II; IABP-II, intra-aortic balloon pump II; population compared with other multicenter studies.19 In our
SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment. study, the SOFA score had numerically higher AUC values for
both in-CCU mortality and in-hospital mortality. However,
such small differences are unlikely to have a clinical impact
Discussion and ease of use based on number and complexity of variables
We used a real-world population of patients with cardiogenic may be a more practical feature that impacts selection and
shock to externally validate 4 established risk scores. In- uptake of risk scores into practice between scores. In addition,
hospital mortality in patients with cardiogenic shock was high, risk scores trended toward better performance in patients pre-
similar to a large multicenter report where cardiogenic shock senting with ACS. This is not surprising since 2 scores were
was associated with more than 30% in-hospital mortality.19 In derived in ACS populations. However, it does suggest that
Miller et al 5

Table 3. Comparison of AUC Values for Risk Scores.a

In-Hospital Mortality, CCU Mortality,


Risk Score AUC (95% CI), n ¼ 148 P Value vs APACHE II AUC (95% CI), n ¼ 103 P Value vs IABP Shock-II

APACHE II 0.71 (0.66-0.76) – 0.75 (0.69-0.81) .404


CardShock 0.76 (0.72-0.81) .022 0.75 (0.70-0.81) .157
IABP-Shock II 0.73 (0.68-0.77) .574 0.72 (0.67-0.78) –
SOFA 0.76 (0.72-0.81) .034 0.79 (0.74-0.84) .036

Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; APACHE-II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II; CCU, coronary care unit; CI, confidence interval;
IABP, intra-aortic balloon pump; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
a
Comparison of AUC values for risk scores for discrimination of in-hospital mortality (n ¼ 148) and mortality in CCU (n ¼ 103).

Figure 2. Calibration graphs for in-hospital mortality showing observed versus predicted risk for each decline. Reference line indicates perfect
calibration (intercept 0, slope 1). APACHE-II indicates Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II; IABP-II, intra-aortic balloon pump II;
SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.

latent class analyses may help further refine future risk estima- horizons. Implementing risk prediction models into electronic
tion attempts by identifying important subgroups of patients health records may help to alleviate the burden of repeated risk
with cardiogenic shock.20 Finally, the factors that predict calculations and allow for risk estimation at different time
short-term mortality differ from those that predict intermediate intervals. This approach has been shown to be a viable and
or long-term mortality.2,4 Therefore, it may not be possible to potentially superior in some studies21,22 and could allow for
generate a single score to predict events at multiple time implementation of more complex models.
6 Journal of Intensive Care Medicine XX(X)

Conclusions
Cardiogenic shock is present in a significant proportion of
patients admitted to tertiary care CCUs and is associated with
a substantial increase in mortality. Existing cardiogenic shock
risk scores have modest prognostic accuracy in this patient
population. Further investigation is required to improve the
discriminative abilities of existing risk prediction models or
establish novel methods for risk prediction. In addition, pro-
spective studies are needed to assess the potential benefit of
using risk scores to guide early MCS utilization.

Declaration of Conflicting Interests


The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to
Figure 3. Receiver-operating characteristic curves for predicting in- the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
cardiac care unit (CCU) mortality. APACHE-II indicates Acute Phy-
siology and Chronic Health Evaluation II; IABP-II, intra-aortic balloon Funding
pump II; SOFA, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment.
The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for
the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: Dr Robert J.
Appropriate therapy for patients with cardiogenic shock H. Miller is supported by the Arthur J. E. Child Fellowship grant.
involves early and selected use of inotropic supports and MCS,
which was common in our population. While the use of ino- ORCID iD
tropic and vasopressor supports were higher in patients who
Robert J. H. Miller, MD https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4676-2433
died in hospital, this is likely a reflection of the sicker patient
population. However, it may partially reflect the known
Supplemental Material
adverse effects of these drugs.23 In addition, the use of ECMO
or Impella support were relatively uncommon in our cohort Supplemental material for this article is available online.
compared to IABP which has not demonstrated efficacy for
shock following acute MI.24 It is not clear how physicians’ References
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