Product Life Cycle Research:

A Literature Review
David R. Rink, Northern Illinois University
John E. Swan, University of Alabama at Birmingham

The purposes of this paper are threefold: to review the scope of product life
cycle (PLC) research; to pinpoint areas requiring further investigation; and to
provide guidelines for future researchers. Because of the paucity of empirical
evidence, only tentative conclusions are advanced. For example, the most
common PLC pattern is the classical, bell-shaped curve, but it is not the sole
shape. The application of various forecasting techniques across the PLC have
met with merely moderate success. Very little research has been conducted
either on how different characteristics of the firm influence the PLC or on
the actual use of various PLC-strategy theories by business planners. Finally,
investigators have focused almost exclusively on validating the existence of
the PLC concept among nondurable consumer goods. Industrial items, as well
as major product changes, have been nearly ignored. The main conclusion is
that additional research-more diversified and extensive in nature-is needed
on many PLC topics.

Since the introduction of the idea of a product life cycle (PLC) al-
most 30 years ago [27, 281, a great deal has been written on the
subject and several empirical studies have appeared. Numerous
managerial-oriented articles and books have discussed the PLC.
Yet the question remains: What is the scope of empirical evidence
relevant to the PLC?
The amount of empirical research in the PLC field is both mea-
ger and concentrated. Researchers have focused almost exclusively
on validating the existence of the PLC concept. Nondurable con-
sumer goods have represented the primary products studied.

The Product Life Cycle Concept

The PLC represents the unit sales curve for some product, ex-
tending from the time it is first placed on the market until it is
removed [ 10, p. 501. In portraying “the evolution of product at-

Address correspondence to: David R. Rink, College of Business, Northern Illinois

University,DeKalb, Illinois 60115.

JOURNAL OFBUSINESS RESEARCH 219

0 Elsevier North Holland, Inc., 1979 0148-2963/79/03219-24$01.75
220 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

tributes and market characteristics through time, (the PLC con-

cept can be) . . . used prescriptively in the selection of marketing
actions and planning” [58, p. 671.
Schematically, the PLC may be approximated by a bell-shaped
curve (type I, Figure 1) that is divided into several stages [62].
Although the number of phases suggested in the PLC literature
varies between four and six, a four-stage cycle-introduction,
growth, maturity, and decline-is adopted.
The theoretical rationale behind the PLC concept emanates
from the theory of diffusion and adoption of innovations [6 I].
That is, unit sales are low in introduction, because few consumers
are aware of the new good (or service). With consumer recognition
and acceptance, unit sales begin to increase at an increasing rate.
This signals the start of the growth stage. However, the rate of
growth in unit sales will subside as more competitors enter the in-
dustry and the market becomes smaller. Eventually, unit sales
reach a plateau, and the product is in the maturity stage. Most of
the mass market has already purchased the item. As consumers in-
creasingly foresake the product for its newer counterparts, unit
sales will decline rapidly. Removal from the market is imminent.
The PLC theory per se is directly analogous to other concepts
that typify a more or less predictable pattern across time. Such
notions represent a summary of a number of forces that determine
some outcome of interest. As an example, a seasonal sales pattern
for a product may be determined by a large number of factors, in-
cluding changes in temperature across the seasons, social customs,
and conventions, demand stimulation by business firms, and so on.
The concept of seasonal sales has been very useful because of the
fundamental fact that many products do have sales that vary by
season and such variation is predictable enough to be useful for
planning purposes. What can be said about the PLC based on em-
pirical studies? What has been the scope of PLC studies? How
much confidence can we have in conclusions about the PLC based
on the number of studies that are relevant to a specific question
about the PLC?

Purpose

The major purpose is to review research on the PLC in order to see

what conclusions can be d. ‘n as answers to the following funda-
mental questions and to assess the weight of evidence that is perti-
nent to each question:
Product Life Cycle 221

1. Do recognizable PLC patterns across time in fact occur, and

on what sample of industries and products is our knowledge of the
PLC based?
2. Can PLC stages be forecasted?
3. Do we know how economic conditions or characteristics of
the firm may affect the PLC?
4. To what extent is the PLC used in strategy planning?
5. What are the gaps in our knowledge of the PLC that future
research could concentrate on?
A second purpose is to stimulate more extensive and diverse re-
search. This will be accomplished by first, reviewing the scope of
PLC studies that have been conducted; second, highlighting areas
requiring empirical investigation; and third, providing guidelines
for subsequent researchers.

Evidence Relevant to Validating PLC Patterns

Types of PLC Patterns. The classical PLC shape (type I, Figure

1) has been only one of 12 types of PLC patterns discovered by in-
vestigators. Research on the different patterns shown in Figure 1
has been quite uneven.
Some 15 different studies of consumer nondurables and dura-
bles. as well as four studies of industrial goods, provide quite a bit
of evidence that some products have validated the classical PLC
curve (Figure 1). On the other hand, the cycle-recycle pattern has
been found in four studies, including drugs [21], food products,
household products [41], and industrial fluid measuring devices
[24]. An increasing sales pattern was uncovered in three studies
[ 12, 21, 391. Although two studies support the decreasing sales
pattern [ 12, 2 11, two other studies found a stable maturity pat-
tern [ 10, 401. The remaining PLC types of cycle-half-recycle,
growth maturity, innovative maturity, high and low plateau,
growth-decline plateau, and rapid penetration are the result of a
single study. In summary, with the exception of the classical pat-
tern, more research is needed to substantiate the remaining PLC
patterns.
Reasons for Shape of Product Life Cycle Curve. While the studies
previously mentioned have documented the general shape of the
PLC curve, only a few researchers have extended their analysis to
empirically ascertain why the curve assumes this shape. Although
Belville concentrated on the initial PLC stages of color televisions,
222 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

iI. CYCLE-RtCYCLEa’f’~
Sales
!iwenue
I

Sales
Revenue

a Adapted from Cox [ 2 1,221.

b Adapted’from Buzzell [lo].
CAdapted from Headen [40] .
d Adapted from Frederixon [39].
e Adapted from Buzzell and Nourse [ 121.
f Adapted from Hinkle [41].
g Adapted from Cunningham [24].
h Adapted from Poli [58], BelviBe [S] , Patton [57], Brockhoff [9], Brantl [8], May
[54], Kovac and Dague [46], Buzzell and Cook [59], Dean and Sengupta 1261, Albach
[ 11, Stobaugh [66], and Balachandran and Jain [2] .
FIGURE 1: Types of Product Life Cycle Patterns.
Product Life Cycle 223

he found that seven factors were significant in triggering the take-

off point: price; volume of network color programming; public ex-
posure to color; obsolescence of black-and-white sets; color
quality; clarity of black-and-white pictures; and attitude of major
set makers [ 5, p. 821. Using unit sales data from 11 different auto-
mobile models, Brockhoff found that the PLC curve depended
both upon time and sales of closely related products manufactured
by the firm [9]. Other researchers and writers cite the common
reasons of changing market and economic conditions, as well as
reactions to competitors, as major factors determining the shape
of the PLC curve [ 3 1,431. To date, however, these have not been
empirically confirmed. Additionally, research should be conducted
to ascertain whether management can influence these factors that
affect the shape of the PLC. If so, what is the extent to which
management can alter these factors, and, hence, influence the
form of the curve?

The Scope of Industries and Products Included in PLC Studies

As shown in Table 1, 12 different studies of consumer nondurable

goods have been the major focus of PLC research, followed by
nine studies of consumer durable items. Only four studies of in-
dustrial goods were discovered by the authors.1 The most obvious
gap in knowledge of the PLC, therefore, involves industrial goods.
As to why academic researchers have been loathe to relate the PLC
concept to industrial goods, two explanations may be offered.
First, with industrial goods, “the time span tends to be extended
and the market more conservative and slower to respond due to
the historical inertia” [24, p. 341. Second, since most industries
lack records of product introduction, the development of PLC
models requires

... a compilation of new product introductions. The difficulty of preparing

such a compilation is perhaps the most serious obstacle to the widespread
development of product life cycles for a variety of industries and products
[ 22, p. 3761.

1 These numbers result from counting each researcher’s study only once under each
of the three categories. On the other hand, if counting were with replacement, the
corresponding numbers would be 20, 11, and 5 studies for consumer nondurable goods,
consumer durable items, and industrial goods, respectively.
224 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

Table 1: Industries and Products Included in PLC Studies

Industry (Number
of Studies) Product Category: Researcher(s) and Number of Products/Brands

Consumer durable Major appliances: Polli [58] 22; Buzzell and Cook [ 1 l] 500
goods (9) Color television: Belville [S] 1
Black and white television: Patton [57] NA
Refrigerators: Cunningham [24] NA
Minor appliances: Polli [58] 28; BuzzelJ and Cook [ 111 SOLI
Automobiles: Brockhoff [9] 11; Brantl [8] 3;May [54] 1
Automobile tires: Kovac and Dague [46] 1

Consumer non- Drugs: Cox [21, 221 258

durable goods (12) Food: Hinkle [41] 275b; Polli [58] 56;Buzzell and Cook [ll] 49;
Cunningham [ 241 NA; Polli and Cook [59] 56 ; Dean and Sengupta
[ 261 NA; Buzzell [lo] 9; Buzzell and Nourse [ 121 100; Headen
[40] NA; Albach [l] 2
Household products/supplies: Hinkle [41] 275b;Polli [58] 45
Nonfood grocery items: Buzzell and Cook [ 111 93
Health and beauty aids: Hinkle [41] 2756; Polli [58] 40;Polli and
Cook [ 591 5 1; Cunningham [ 241
Cigarettes: May [54] 4;Polli and Cook (591 33

Industrial
durable goods (2) General engineering and fluid measuring devices: Cunningham [ 241
NA
Automobile components: Cunningham [ 241 NA
Established durable: Balachandran and Jain [ 21 NA

Industrial non-
durable goods (2) Petro-chemicals: Stobaugh [66] 9
Chemicals: Frederixon [ 391 27

a Total only; unable to segregate by major versus minor household appliances.

b Total only; unable to segregate by food products, household products/supplies,
and health and beauty aids.
NA = Not available in published research report.

Frequency of studies by type of customer- consumer versus in-

dustrial-can be misleading. Scrutinizing the type of goods utilized
in consumer studies, not only do nondurable items outdistance
durable ones by almost a 2: 1 margin, but food products were over-
whelmingly preferred (Table 1). Also, previous PLC researchers
focused primarily upon those consumer products that were fre-
quently purchased, low-priced, widely distributed, and not subject
Product Life Cycle 225

to wide variations on the supply side [ 58, p. 2 191. The reasons in-
vestigators preferred nondurable consumer items were
... durables sales data, regardless of adjustment procedures, do not distinguish
between adoption and replacement and therefore do not accurately measure
the level of market acceptance. In addition, durable sales are heavily influ-
enced by availability of materials (as during war years), income level changes,
and consumer expectations . . . . These problems are not severe in nondurables
[ll,pp.29,35].

One investigator censured early PLC writers for generalizing

“from a small and often biased sample of experiences” [58, p.
421 . This criticism is still appropriate as well as justified from the
content and focus of relatively recent research. This conclusion
can be substantiated by examining all possible combinations of
four variables for consumer products, which were outlined by
Polli [58, p. 391 : purchase frequency; price level; degree of dis-
tribution; and supply variations (Figure 2). Of the resulting 16
cells, researchers have concentrated almost exclusively on the first
cell.
Before the PLC notion can become a theory in the strict scien-
tific sense, extensive empirical observations and descriptions are
mandatory. For consumer goods, this can be accomplished by con-
ducting research in each of the remaining 15 cells of Figure 2. The
next step would entail replication of these empirical findings.
With industrial goods, the situation is slightly different. Not
enough empirical studies have been performed for a theory to be
developed. Hence, more industrial situations and products must
be examined in order to establish that the PLC theory is appli-
cable. Once this task is completed and a proposition developed,
then researchers can attempt to fill the literature gaps by fol-
lowing a scheme similar to Figure 2, but for industrial goods.
Replication would then follow.

Different Product Concepts Analyzed in PLC Research

Here the basic question is: To what extent have PLC studies
covered different concepts of a new product and different levels of
product aggregation?
Level of Product Aggregation. Typically, there are three levels of
product aggregation-class, form, and brand. Product class repre-
sents items that are substitutes for the same want (e.g., cigarettes,
cigars, and pipes). Product form is a finer classification of a prod-
226 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

FIGURE 2: Classification of Consumer Products by Purchase Frequency, Price,

Distribution, and Supply.

uct class (e.g., king-sized cigarettes, regulars, menthol cigarettes,

etc.). Brand, on the other hand, is unique (e.g., Camels, Kools,
etc.).
A major problem with previous, and sometimes current, PLC
studies has been: What level of product aggregation was used? It
is vital that these levels be differentiated because the PLC notion
has a different degree of applicability in these three cases. That
is. product classes possess the longest sales curves. Product forms
probably exhibit the standard PLC histories. Product brands have
very erratic sales trends [45, p. 43 1I .
Most writers have accepted the idea that product forms are the
most appropriate level of product aggregation to utilize in PLC
research. However, this point requires more investigation as only
one study has addressed this question. Based upon the sales
histories of nonfood grocery product forms, Polli found no sub-
stantive evidence concerning the level of product aggregation that
should be adopted by researchers interested in products other than
nonfood grocery items [ 58, pp. 232-2331. Hence, more PLC re-
search is needed utilizing various consumer and industrial goods to
determine which product aggregation level should be adopted.
Definition of New Product. A difficulty in PLC studies has been:
What is a new product? Does a variation in an established product
represent a new product or part of the mother product? For ex-
ample, should color television sets be considered as a separate
Product Life Cycle 221

product with their own PLC curve or as a part of black-and-white

television’s unit sales curve? Far from being resolved, this issue
continues to plague PLC researchers. One author lamented that
this question involves the “most complex element to untangle in
understanding the life-cycle concept” [ 57, pp. 68-691.
A possible solution to the definitional quagmire surrounding the
question, “What is a new product?” is to segregate new products
into several degrees of newness. According to one writer, this can
be accomplished, because “there appear to be a few universally
recognized characteristics distinguishing the new product from an
improved variation of an old one” [ 57, p. 691. Continuing, this
writer presented a four-way classification of new products: the
unquestionably new product; the partially new product; the major
product change; and the minor product change. This delineation,
and others like it [ 12, p. 221, can be instrumental in alleviating
the difficulty inherent with determining whether a new product is
simply a variation of an old one or is a completely new item.
By integrating some of the previously mentioned variables, such
as degree of perishability, customer type, degree of newness, and
level of product aggregation, areas for future research can be easily
identified. By taking all reasonable combinations of these four
variables, the result is a possible 48-cell classification (Figure 3).
The major focus of consumer goods research (durable and non-
durable) has been on minor product change-form with some
emphasis on minor product change-class and brand. What little
research has been directed at both major product change and
partially new product has concentrated primarily on class and
form. Brand has been almost totally ignored in this case. Other
combinations suggested by Figure 3 represent potential areas for
additional or new research.
In the industrial goods area (durable and nondurable), most of
the studies have focused on minor product change-class and form.
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, no empirical research has
been performed on the other cells of this group. Hence, these cells
signify relatively untapped areas for future examination.

Levels of Measurement

In the material previously reviewed and summarized in Figures 2

and 3, some potentially continuous variables, such as price level,
have been treated as ordinal or nominal variables. This was done to
simplify the material and present a clear overview of some of the
228 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

* Columns are coded as follows: UNP = unquestionably new product; PNP = partially
new product; MPC = major product change; MIPC = minor product change.

FIGURE 3: Classification of Goods by Newness, Customer, Product Aggregation, and

Perishability.

types of products and markets that have been the focus of PLC re-
search. However, a basic question that should be addressed is:
What level of measurement would be appropriate for such varia-
bles? This would depend upon the analytical use of such variables
in PLC research. The variables may be used either to explain phe-
nomena of interest concerning the PLC or to specify that part of
the real world that a particular PLC model is applicable to. As ex-
planatory variables, it would generally be best to retain continuous
variables as continuous variables because a wider range of more
powerful quantitative tools are available for continuous, interval
level variables than are applicable to nominal or ordinal measures.
As an example, if a researcher wished to test the idea that the
lower the price of a new product, the shorter the introduction and
growth stages of the PLC, then price measured as a continuous
variable would be appropriate.
The second problem concerns specifying the limits of the appli-
cation of PLC models. As previously noted, it has been felt that
the classical PLC does apply to frequently purchased consumer
nondurables. If the objective of a research study was to see if the
classical curve could be generalized to infrequently purchased con-
sumer nondurables, then only an ordinal measure of frequency of
purchase would be necessary so that two classes of goods-fre-
Product Life Cycle 229

quently and infrequently purchased-could be contrasted. An

initial study should probably contrast very frequently with very in-
frequently purchased products. Unfortunately, current knowledge
of the PLC does not provide precise guidance for cutoff points to
determine what is frequent compared to infrequent purchase. This
could be an area for future research.

Research on PLC Stages

Forecasting Stage Transition. The main application suggested

for the PLC has been to plan changes in marketing strategy as the
product moves from stage to stage. It follows that the PLC would
be more useful in strategy planning if one could more accurately
forecast the time when a product changed PLC phases. To what
extent can stages be predicted?
Two of the early researchers used initial data points in the PLC
to predict the entire curve or next stage. Utilizing semilog paper to
plot annual color set sales and number of color television-equipped
households, as well as difference analysis relative to color set satu-
ration, Belville identified the take-off point in color television
sales, or the transition from introduction to growth stage [ 5, pp. 26-
291. Polli and Cook examined the percentage change in a products
real sales from year t to year t + 1. Plotting these changes as a nor-
mal distribution with mean zero, they determined that if a prod-
uct had a percentage change less than %a, it was in the decline
phase. A product with the percentage change exceeding Ho, was in
the growth stage. In the range +%o, the product was considered to
be stable [ 59, pp. 390-39 I] .
Other researchers have developed new product models that fore-
cast the growth and maturity phases of a new item on the basis of
either test market data [3, 4, 23, 36, 42, 47, 53, 681 or pretest re-
search [ 171. However, these models are unable to accurately pre-
dict the second half of the PLC curve.‘(This is similar to the prob-
lem encountered by various growth curves, e.g., Gompertz and
logistics, except that they cannot estimate beyond the sales pla-
teau.) For example, if one of the more accepted new product
models [4] were permitted to forecast the remainder of the sales
trend. it would predict “a very short maturity phase going into
decline much faster than does the actual PLC” [ 20, p. 3741.
In a different direction, researchers have discovered various
leading indicators of the timing of the maturity phase, such as
declining proportion of new triers versus replacement sales, de-
230 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

clining profits, overcapacity in industry, appearance of new re-

placement products, decline in elasticity of advertising coupled
with increasing price elasticity, present users’ consumption rate,
and style changes [701. By incorporating these indicators into
either technological forecasts, similar product analyses, or epi-
demological models, a sales forecast for the maturity stage may be
derived [4, 161. In addition to its ex post facto nature, an obvious
problem with this technique is that the initial PLC stages are
ignored.
Another group of researchers has prescribed a different set of
forecasting techniques for each PLC stage, because management
must make different decisions at each phase, and “they require
different kinds of information as a base” [15, pp. 51-521. These
recommendations, however, are grounded on limited empirical
evidence, in particular, two products of Corning Glass Works-
glass components for color TV tubes and cookware. But, the
major difficulty with this approach is that the user must know
the PLC stage the product is in before he can adopt the corre-
sponding set of forecasting devices. Hence, the original problem of
forecasting phase transition is encountered.
The forecasting aspect of the PLC concept requires estimation
of two items: magnitude of the unit sales increase and length of
the cycle. The new product models resolve half of this dilemma by
predicting the magnitude and timing of the growth and maturity
phases using data from the introduction stage. The problem,
therefore, is

,.. reduced to one of predicting the length of the maturity phase and the rate
of decline of the decay phase resulting in a prediction for the entire PLC from
the early data points [ 20, p. 3741.

This latter problem has been attacked by two researchers, who

developed a computer program (LIFER) that uses early data
points-known or estimated- to forecast the remainder of the PLC.
Assuming that the PLC model “is a continuous real valued func-
tion of continuous time, the boundaries of the ... (various) phases
can be determined using techniques of elementary differential
calculus” [ 20, p. 3751. The result is a multiplicative model of the
following form

Y(t) = C, tC2 exp (Cat + C, t2)e(t)tc2 2 0

Product Life Cycle 231

where
Y(t) = recorded sales during period (t - 1, t),
e(t) = multiplicative random component for period t,
Cl, C,, C3, C, are parameters’ to be estirhtited from available
sales data.
Although this model includes “no exogenous variables and a
limited number of parameters,” it was tested using annual sales
data for cigarettes, automobiles, various types of appliances, beer,
wine, and ethical drugs and found to possess “the requisite flexi-
bility to fit most (PLC) situations, in particular those involving
extended decline phases, as well as a recycle” [20, pp. 374 and
3771.
The subsequent step for investigators is to complicate the
LIFER model by adding exogenous variables and more parameters.
As one researcher stated
stage identification is difficult because the sales curve is not a function of
time alone. External environmental factors and controllable marketing instru-
ments determine the shape of the sales response curve [ 55, p. 4761.

Also, more diverse and varied products should be used in testing

the universality of the LIFER model. Another researchable avenue
is to examine the possibility of applying the recently acclaimed
Box-Jenkins approach to PLC analysis.
Length and Sequence of Product Life Cycle Stages. Do PLCs fol-
low the proposed sequence of four phases-introduction, growth,
maturity, and decline. 7 Also, what is the length of each phase?
Only a few researchers have empirically examined these two issues.
Cox, for example, discovered that the length of the phases for a
typical ethical drug was 1 month, 6 months, 15 months, and over
22 months for the introduction, growth, maturity, and decline
stages, respectively [ 221. Another investigator examined the
stability of the PLC phases, as well as the proportion of time
various consumer nondurables spent in each stage [58, p. 671.
Dean, the purported Father of the PLC Theory [S, pp. 84-851,
maintains that the length of the PLC phases is a function of the
rate of technical change, rate of market acceptance, and ease of
competitive entry [27, pp. 45-461. Information concerning these
two variables, especially length of PLC stages for a typical product
in some industry, would assist managers in more effective manage-
ment of a product’s life cycle. Researchers, therefore, should focus
232 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

their empirical endeavors on the length and sequence of PLC

phases for numerous products and industries.
Economic Conditions. Because the PLC concept was born in the
early 1950s it is basically a theory that describes the unit sales
trend for some product during either normal economic conditions
or a boom period. Consequently, the PLC notion cannot (nor does
it) reflect some product’s unit sales history during nonnormal
economic circumstances, such as recession or depression.
Economic events of the mid-l 970s however, have substantially
increased the need for relating the PLC to an economic downturn.
One group of writers have provided a general conceptualization of
the impact of a nonnormal domestic economy upon products in
various stages of the PLC. In the introduction stage, the product
will probably be killed. A product in the growth stage, on the
other hand, stands the best chance of resisting
. the adverse effect of a significant downturn in the general economy. . . . It is
possible, with proper modifications, for market expansion to continue during
this period [ 65, p. 2291.
These modifications include adjusting product form, reducing
price, and increasing promotional expenditures. This strategy was
employed by electric refrigerator manufacturers during the depres-
sion of the 1930s and explains why their sales continued to in-
crease relative to the sales of other appliances [7, p. 2771. Prod-
ucts in the maturity stage will “tend to rise and fall with changes
in the general level of business activity because of the postponable
nature of such products” [65, p. 2291. Smallwood observed this
phenomenon among annual factory shipments of two big-ticket
consumer durables, e.g., color televisions and portable dishwashers,
during the minirecessions of 1966-67 and 1969-70 [63, p. 321.
Finally, a quicker exit from the market is generally expected for
products in the decline phase 165, p. 2291.
Future researchers must empirically examine the feasibility of
this conceptualization. Completion of this task will stimulate ad-
ditional research along these lines. The end result will be several
PLC theories capable of handling all possible economic conditions.

Is the Concept of PLC Stages Hindering PLC Theory Development?

The concept of PLC stages may be hindering PLC research by di-

verting attention from other issues concerning product life cycles.2
2 The authors are grateful to a JBR reviewer for suggesting this point.
Product Life Cycle 233

Are PLC stages worth the effort that they have received? The
authors feel that PLC stages are quite worthwhile, because man-
agerial use of the PLC concept readily flows from the stage notion.
Without stages, the PLC concept would be rather difficult to apply
to marketing problems. Ideas about stages are somewhat arbitrary,
and work is needed to determine the value of different stage con-
cepts for different managerial or conceptual problems. As an ex-
ample, the decline stage is a critical stage for product abandon-
ment decisions. In fact, for planning purposes, it may be fruitful
to subdivide the decline stage into more detailed categories. To
illustrate this point, suppose it was found that when half of the
brands at the start of the decline stage have exited the market,
price declines tend to stabilize and the market moves toward
oligopoly. Some firms may find it very useful to try and predict
the price stability stage, since the squeeze on profit margins may be
less and staying in the market increases in value when that stage
is reached.
The stage concept,when understood as a way to organize knowl-
edge and observations about the PLC and to help forecast future
developments, is very helpful. Armchair arguments about the exact
number or sequence of stages, without an explicit consideration of
how the resulting classification will be used, are not likely to be
fruitful.

The Firm and the PLC

The size of the firm and the product lines marketed by the firm
could influence the PLC. However, little research has been done
on either of these issues.
Type of Firm. The magnitude of resources available to a large
firm relative to its smaller counterpart would seem to infer two
differently shaped PCL curves-even if their products were basically
the same. Ambiguity concerning the size of firms examined pre-
cludes testing this and related hypotheses.
Likewise, none of the empirical studies distinguished between
one-product and multiproduct firms. Allocation of scarce re-
sources among several products may reduce the multiproduct
firm’s effectiveness in the market, as measured by unit sales, com-
 234 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

pared to the one-product firm, which can concentrate its efforts

on one item. Again, this point has not been elaborated upon in
past research.
Product Lines. When discussing product lines, marketing authors
are quick to warn managers to be cognizant of the interactions and
interrelationships between various products of a line. The axiom
is: The sum of the individual products of a product line equal
more than the product line itself. If this is true, then would not
the PLC curves of products in a line be affected in some way as a
result of these interrelationships? Excluding Brockhoff 191, re-
searchers have not addressed themselves to this point.
A critical problem for a multiproduct firm is to determine how
its limited resources will be allocated among various products in an
optimum fashion. Numerous models have been developed for
handling this question. One academician posited that the PLC con-
cept could serve as “a superior .basis for optimizing the allocation
of the firm’s resources” [ 221.
In managing its product line, the diversified firm will be con-
fronted with multiple PLC curves [631. To be successful, the
firm must maintain a balance among its products in terms of
their corresponding life-cycle positions, because such variables as
risk and investment requirements vary across the PLC [65, pp.
240-241 I . Although Smallwood and Marvin [521 were among the
first researchers to conceptualize a balanced product portfolio, no
one has empirically examined whether firms do indeed maintain
such balanced portfolios. Such investigations would seem to be
requisite for product development and planning purposes, formu-
lation of marketing strategy, market segmentation, and eventual
product-market positioning and realignment. Moreover, these
studies should be segregated according to industry and product
types.

Use of the PLC in Strategy Planning

Several academicians have either hypothesized which variable(s) of

the marketing mix is (are) most relevant or asserted the nature of the
marketing mix to be employed by PLC phase [ 10, 18, 19, 27, 28,
34,35,45, pp.434-437,659-660,48,49, pp. 183-I 88,50, pp. 345-
348, 527-528,670-672,55,pp. 87-89,57,62,64, pp. 166-l 82,67,
69, pp. 247-2481. Other writers have also theorized the application
of the PLC concept to their functional areas of interest in terms of
Product Life Cycle 235

strategy formulation, such as finance [37], purchasing [ 61, logis-

tics [25, pp. 222-2251, and sales management [301.
As observed by Wind and Claycamp, however,
these recommendations have usually been vague, nonoperational, not empiri-
cally supported, and conceptually questionable, since they imply that strate-
gies can be developed with little concern for the product’s profitability and
market share position.3 . . . Traditional (PLC) analysis . . . ignores the competi-
tive setting of the product, the relevant profit considerations, and the fact
that product sales are a function of the marketing effort of the firm and other
environmental forces [71, pp. 2 and 81 .4

Excluding one researcher’s study, no one has investigated em-

pirically whether practitioners actually utilize academicians’
PLC-strategy theories. The apparent underlying explanation for
this complacency is that most academicians accept the PLC con-
cept as a useful model for planning appropriate strategies. The
empirical validity of the PLC theory is simply asserted [ 5 1, p.
391. Interviewing industrial purchasing executives, however, Rink
found that most were intuitively using Berenson’s PLC-purchasing
strategy (PS) model in formulating their firm’s purchasing strategy
across the PLC [60]. But this is an empirical test of only one of
the PLC-strategy theories. Others beg examination. Such studies
will determine which strategy models are appropriate for the prac-
titioner to consider, as well as when and in what situations. Modifi-
cations may be required in some of these basic theories.5
Although Mickwitz [55, pp. 87-891 posited that the demand
elasticities of the marketing mix variables change over the PLC,
the literature provides almost no empirical evidence to substantiate
this theory. Reportedly, one packaged goods company measured
the advertising elasticities for a wide range of its products at their
various PLC phases. The firm found that advertising elasticity
tended to decrease as the product progressed through its PLC [ 441.
In examining the domestic sales and advertising for a household
cleanser, Parsons found empirical support for Mickwitz’s proposi-
tion, at least in the case of advertising. He recommended

3 Other interesting theoretical articles and rejoiners that focus on PLC ad market
share are reviewed in Catry, et al. [ 13, 141 and Fildes, et al. [ 331.
4 Other writers concur with the point that PLC is a dependent variable determined
by marketing actions rather than an independent variable to which firms adapt their
marketing Programs [29, P. l( 5,31, PP. 3-4,32, p. 48,33, p. 591.
5 On the basis of discussrons with 45 purchasing executives, Fox and Rink [38]
expanded Bermson’s PLC-PS model [6] to include almost 100 purchasing strategies and
tactics.
236 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

Future research should be directed toward confirming this exploratory find.

In addition, marketing mix models should be examined to determine whether
there are differential rates of change among the various elasticities. Finally,
but most importantly, the elasticities should be expressed as functions of
external environmental variables, and controllable marketing instruments
instead of explicit functions of time alone [ 56, p. 4801.

Major Research Needs Involving the PLC

In critically appraising various facets of PLC research, numerous

avenues for future study have been highlighted. Although these
fertile areas have been discussed and some of the major points sum-
marized, integrating the research possibilities into one table may
be useful (see Table 2). This may underscore the need for a multi-
dimensional approach to conceptualizing future PLC research.
For ease of reference, the 23 variables have been segregated
into three groups: variables internal to the firm; variables external
to the firm but internal to the industry; and macroenvironmental
variables.
The 23 variables comprising Table 2 are not intended to be an
exhaustive enumeration. At best, this table represents the starting
point for further conceptualization. Some variables, for example,
industry structure and industry type, may be too similar to segre-
gate. In another case, product type, most researchers agree that
commodity products do not exhibit the general PLC shape. Per-
haps this should be examined more thoroughly. Finally, con-
cerning market reach, an often-used strategy of multinational
firms involves transferring a product that has transpired its PLC
among highly industrialized countries to markets frequented by
less industrialized countries. This permits the firm to reinitiate the
PLC of its product, but with substantial cost economies via the
experience curve phenomenon.
Additional work is needed in developing, refining, and crystal-
izing this list of 23 variables. However, the multidimensional ap-
proach epitomized in Table 2 will enrich, as well as stimulate,
more extensive and diverse empirical PLC research as investiga-
tors examine feasible combination of these variables.

Conclusions and Summary

Some tentative conclusions can be advanced on the basis of the

empirical studies reviewed here. Unfortunately, there is little
evidence on which to base most of the following conclusions, so
 237
Product Life Cycle

Table 2: Multidimensional Approach for Conceptualizing Future

Product Life Cycle Research
Variables internal to the firm Product type
Type of customer Commodity
Consumer Noncommodity
Market reach
Industrial
Local
Degree of perishability
Regional
Durable
National
Nondurable
International
Degree of tangibility Degree of promotion
Good High
Service Medium
Degree of newness Low
Unquestionably new Length and sequence of PLC stages
Partially new Market share
Major change Small
Minor change Average
Established Dominant
Type of firm, such as Variables external to firm but internal to
Manufacturer industry
Wholesaler Industry type, such as
Retailer Automobile
Firm size in terms of either assets, Electrical Appliance
sales, etc. Home Construction
Large Electronic Components
Medium Etc.
Supply variations
Small
Function, such as High
Average
Marketing
Finance Low
Industry (or market) structure
Purchasing Pure competition
Logistics oligopolY
Etc. Monopoly
Level of aggregation Monopolistic competition
Class State of industry technology
Form Volatile, ever-changing
Brand Changes periodically
Price level Stable
High Purchase Frequency
Medium High
Low Medium
Degree of distribution
Intensive Macr%%.ronmental variables
Extensive Domestic economy
Limited Boom
Number of product lines Bust, e.g., recession, inflation,
One shortages, depression, etc.
Two or more International economy (optional)
Related Boom
Unrelated Bust
238 David R. Rink and John E. Swan

the need for additional research is the main conclusion of this

report.
PLC Curves. Evidence for the existence of the classical bell-
shaped PLC curve is strong, as a number ofstudies have found such
a pattern. At least three studies have found other curves, including
cycle-recycle, stable maturity, decreasing, and increasing patterns.
Some half-dozen other life-cycle patterns have been found, but by
only one or two studies. The weight of evidence suggests that the
most common curve is the classical, but it is not the only PLC.
Only two studies have been conducted that sought to test factors
that may cause PLC patterns.
Industries/Products Analyzed. Most of the research on the PLC
has been based on either consumer nondurables (12 studies) or
consumer durables (nine studies). Only four studies have covered
industrial goods. Thus, the confidence that we may have in general-
izing about the PLC across types of goods is at least fair within
consumer nondurables, but meager for industrial items. Further-
more, with consumer products, researchers have focused on items
that are frequently purchased, low-priced, widely distributed, and
not subject to wide variations on the supply side. Hence, our
ability to generalize the PLC across consumer goods is also limited.
Product Concepts Investigated. A number of combinations can
be formed in terms of levels of product aggregation and degree of
product newness, specifically class (e.g., tobacco smoking prod-
ucts), form (e.g., cigarettes), brand (e.g., Camels), unquestionably
new product (e.g., black-and-white television when it was intro-
duced), partially new product, major product change (e.g., small,
portable black-and-white television sets), and minor product
change. However, researchers have concentrated mainly on minor
product changes for product classes and forms. Brands have been
largely ignored.
Forecasting PLC Stages. Some success has been claimed for
methods designed to forecast the transition from one PLC stage
to another. But these methods typically use data from a current
stage to forecast the timing of the next stage. Thus, accurate
long-range forecasting is not likely. Little is known about the
length and sequence of PLC stages.
The Impact of Economic Conditions on the PLC. Very limited
evidence suggests that the usual PLC concept applies to periods of
either economic stability or growth. How recessions may influence
the PLC is questionable.
Product Life Cycle 239

Characteristics of the Firm and the PLC. Almost no research has

been reported on how different characteristics of the firm may in-
fluence the PLC.
Use of the PLC in Business Planning. While much has been
written on how the PLC could be used in business planning, the
use of the PLC by business planners has only been investigated by
one study.

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