Question:

What is the probability of a businessman able to sell his products with a profit of more
than 50% when the quality of the product is very good to customers, and if its quality is very bad
to customers, he gets a profit of lower than 10%?

P(VG) = .50 P(A│VG) = .50

P(VB) = .50 P(A│VB) = .10
VG = Very Good
VB = Very Bad
A = Profit

Probability that the quality of the product is very good

P (VG│A) = ____P(A│VG) P(VG)_____
P(A│VG) P(VG) + P(A│VB) P(VB)
= __(.50) (.50)__
(.50) (.50) + (.10) (.50)
= 0.25
0.25 + .05
= 0.25
0.30
P (VG│A) = 0.83
⸫ the probability of a businessman able to sell his products with a profit of more than 50%
when the quality of the product is very good to customers is 83%
Probability that the quality of the product is very bad
P (VB│A) = ____P(A│VB) P(VB)_____
P(A│VB) P(VB) + P(A│VG) P(VG)
= __(.10) (.50)__
(.10) (.50) + (.50) (.50)
= 0.05
0.05 + .25
= 0.05
0.30
P (VB│A) = 0.17
⸫ the probability of a businessman able to sell his products with a profit of lower than 10%
when the quality of the product is very bad to customers is 17%