Covid-19: what will happen to the global economy?

| The Economist

Worst Recession – since the great depression 1930s

Will the economic shock caused by imposing lockdowns prove more costly than the pandemic itself?

Poor Country can’t provide – cost is huge

Country not locked down like Sweden – also shrink compared to Denmark which has a tougher
lockdown. This is due that people behave with according to the pandemic they do not spend money and
stay at home. It depends how citizens and the government handles the pandemic. “How gov’t handle
and perceive things”

How could an economic recession shift the global balance of power? Recession (declining in economic
activity)

US threaten to withdraw from WHO as a response to the pandemic.

Gives a signal to other countries

Central role of galvanizing not a direct result of recession but reaction to the pandemic.

Will this be a chance for China to become the global financial hub?

US absolute dominant country, dollar dominant financial hub. China 2 nd world largest economy,
but it has no convertible currency underplayed in global finance. Prominent and accelerate due to
tension to China and US. China growth in capital market developing but currency is not convertible.
“Only when China has a convertible currency can challenge US to become a global financial hub.”

Long time to happen dollar took over pound, this transition will take a while. Can be faster
because China set up financially set up currencies going up to the digital world. (E.g. ALIPAY.)

Which countries are the most economically vulnerable to the effects of the covid-19 and why?

Economic effects are determined by medical effects. Tourism is hard hit. Industries where
people are involved to be densely packed. Countries whose gov’t do not have the capacity to borrow
particularly the developing countries. “Exports, Tourism, debt burden”

What will the impact on the jobs market be for those graduating in 2020?

90% economy, When the economy recovered, new economy will happen and won’t go back to
the original state of their output. The unemployment rate is high. Finding job is harder. Offers delayed or
withdrawn from graduates. Courses that can adapt has higher chance (e.g. computer programming,
designing, etc.)

Has the pandemic made globalization look like a liability?

Not, safe, and resilient and produce everything and end globalization, but lesson to this
pandemic is the need to diversify. Pandemic requires a global response. Best protection to a pandemic is
a globalized system.
Covid-19: how to fix the economy | The Economist

7% lower GDP, 15% young people lost jobs, technology, finance, trade affected.

1. Spend first save later.

2. Embrace change.

3. Build a safety net.

4. Avoid turning inward. (supply chain)

Works from home boost economic growth.

Job Supports

Global Supply Chains (home or Divesify)

Controlling the economy than the disease

Politics/ Gov’t up to the job?

Will covid kill globalization? | The Economist

China joined the World Trade Organization

2008 Financial Crisis – slowbilization