QuantEco DART Index (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker)

August 03, 2021

 QuantEco DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index
Economic activity recoups previous week’s loss
QuantEco Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker (DART) Index
21st 28th 7th 14th 21st 28th 4th 11th 18th 25th 2nd 9th 16th 23rd 30th 6th 13th 20th 27th 4th 11th 18th 25th 1st
%WoW
Feb Feb Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr Apr Apr Apr May May May May May Jun Jun Jun Jun Jul Jul Jul Jul Aug
for the
week -0.2 -0.7 0.7 -0.5 -1.1 -2.1 -6.2 -2.4 -10.4 -12.0 -9.5 -4.4 -6.0 0.9 5.6 13.0 11.7 6.6 6.0 6.1 4.8 1.9 -2.9 2.3
ending

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 DART Index: Oscillating around the baseline
• QuantEco’s DART (Daily Activity and Recovery Tracker) Index
estimates economic activity to have increased marginally for the
week ending 1st Aug-21
• On a WoW basis, the index rose by 2.3% offsetting the decline of 2.9%
in the week prior - which was the first decline since mid May-21
• In absolute levels, index stood close to baseline at 99.8 compared to
97.5 in the previous week. Recall, the index had surpassed pre-pandemic
baseline of 100 in the week ending 18th Jul-21, at 100.2
• At a sub-indicator level, performance was mixed but the advance to
decline ratio improved. The upside was led by pick up in Traffic
congestion, Rail passengers and Workplace related mobility;
while Rail freight Revenues and Online Restaurant Searches
weighed.
Looking ahead: After seeing a quick recovery over Jun-21 and at a slower increment in Jul-21, economic activity appears to be oscillating
around the baseline now. In the absence of any strong foreseeable triggers in the near term, we expect this trend to continue over the month of
Aug-21. On COVID infections, we remain watchful, as after a gap of nearly 78 days, daily active COVID cases have turned positive (on 7-DMA
basis). This essentially means that magnitude of confirmed infections is now greater than magnitude of recovery; although select states appear
to be leading this trend. Last time India saw a shift in incremental active caseload from negative to positive was in the 3rd week of Feb-21.
Vaccine effectiveness getting validated in select DMs by low mortality/hospitalisation rates despite the surge in Delta variant, offers hope.
India has vaccinated nearly 27% of its population with one dose, and 8% with both; with the daily pace of vaccinations picking up last week to
5.3 mn doses compared to ~4.0 mn over the previous week. Vaccine supply is expected to improve somewhat in Aug-21 to 1500 mn from 1346
mn doses in Jul-21. While this would impart a modest up tick in momentum, supplies need to get ramped up at a faster
pace to reach herd immunity levels as soon as possible.
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*Our previous DART Index update (dated 27th Jul-21) can be read here: QuantEco DART Index – Economic activity retreats for the week
About QuantEco Research

QuantEco is an independent & unbiased research house providing business economics and financial markets intelligence to
corporates and investors. Powered by decades of rich industry experience, Dr. Shubhada Rao is leading the research team at
QuantEco, which blends cutting edge analytics with qualitative analysis to assess emerging trends in the Indian economy.

QuantEco Research Team

Yuvika Singhal Vivek Kumar Shubhada Rao

Economist Economist Founder
yuvika.singhal@quanteco.in vk@quanteco.in shubhada.rao@quanteco.in

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Disclaimer

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