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Contents

Afghanistan
 Why America Failed in Afghanistan ........................................................................................ 06
 Afghanistan Needs Regional Convergence............................................................................. 08
 Impact of US Withdrawal from Afghanistan on Regional Countries ................................. 09
 The Roads Not Taken in Afghanistan ...................................................................................... 12

Book Reviews
 Nuclear Responsibilities............................................................................................................. 16
 The Accumulation of Capital .................................................................................................... 19

Climate Change
 Joe Biden’s Monumental Environmental Gambit ................................................................. 23
 The Challenge of Climate Change ............................................................................................ 24
 The Problems of Climate Change ............................................................................................. 26

Covid-19
 This is What Covid-19 Did to International Students ............................................................ 31
 The Calamity of Covid-19 .......................................................................................................... 32
 How to Vaccinate the Whole World......................................................................................... 34

CPEC and OBOR

 Iran's "Belt and Road" Role ........................................................................................................ 36
 Why the CPEC Should Be Well Protected ............................................................................... 39
 CPEC & Change in Regional Power Chessboard .................................................................. 41
 Strategic Significance of Gwadar Port in the Region ............................................................ 43
 Pakistan Shifts Gears on China’s Belt and Road..................................................................... 45
 The Rise of China ........................................................................................................................ 47
 Can the G7’s Build Back Better World Compete with China’s Belt and Road Initiative ? .............. 49
 The Pursuit of ‘Win-Wins’ along the Belt and Road .............................................................. 50
 Belt and Road Initiative and its Effects on Indian Regional Hegemony ............................. 52
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Economy
 Infrastructure Investment .......................................................................................................... 60
 Increasing Exports is the Only Way To Growth ..................................................................... 61
 Demystifying the Economy ....................................................................................................... 62

Education
 Education Crisis .......................................................................................................................... 65
 Pros and Cons of the SNC.......................................................................................................... 66

Energy Crisis
 Power and Policies ...................................................................................................................... 68
 Alleviating Pakistan’s Energy Poverty .................................................................................... 70
 The End of Cheap Energy? ........................................................................................................ 72
 Renewable Energy, Renewed Pakistan .................................................................................... 77

Foreign Policy and Relations

 Geo-Economics and National Prosperity ................................................................................ 80
 US-Pakistan Relations ............................................................................................................... 82
 Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline .................................................................................................... 84
 The Khan-Putin Call is a Defining Moment in Pak-Russian Relations ............................... 86
 Pakistan’s Problematic Victory in Afghanistan ...................................................................... 88
 FATF Grey List ............................................................................................................................ 89

Governance
 Urbanisation Or Mushrooming Slums..................................................................................... 91
 G-B as Provisional Province ...................................................................................................... 92
 Pakistan’s Digital Transformation ............................................................................................ 93
 Governance and Pakistan’s State-Owned Enterprises........................................................... 94
 Reconsidering Electronic Voting .............................................................................................. 99

Health Sector
 Healthcare and Budget 2021-22 .............................................................................................. 108
 The Malnutrition Crisis ............................................................................................................ 109

History
 Sir Syed Ahmad Khan and Arrested Modernity .................................................................. 111
 Jinnah’s Vision of Economic Equality .................................................................................... 114
 Role of Muslim Women in the Creation of Pakistan............................................................ 115
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 Contemplating the Philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam ............................................ 119

International Issues
 Biden’s Foreign Policy Priorities ............................................................................................. 122
 A Disordered World ................................................................................................................ 123
 The Nagging Question in the Indo-Pacific ............................................................................ 125
 The Development of a Peaceful Multipolar Order ............................................................... 126
 Powerful Spyware..................................................................................................................... 129
 A Real Look at US-India Relations ......................................................................................... 129
 Don’t Draw the Wrong Lessons for Globalization ............................................................... 131
 How Great Powers Should Compete ..................................................................................... 133
 The United States Needs to Revisit Newton’s Third Law................................................... 134
 The Permanent Pandemic ........................................................................................................ 136
 Cyber and Emerging Technologies and the International System .................................... 143
 Why is North Korea’s Nuclear Programme Such a Threat? ............................................... 146
 Europe’s New Refugee Crisis .................................................................................................. 147

International Law
 Religious Freedom in Myanmar and International Law ..................................................... 149
 How International Law Facilitates the Bombing of Civilians in the US War on Terror............... 151
 Crime of Ecocide ....................................................................................................................... 154

International Relations
 The Cultural Revolution of the West and World Politics.................................................... 156
 The Olympics and International Relations ............................................................................ 158

Interviews
 Dr. Maha El Rabbat .................................................................................................................. 160
 Noam Chomsky ........................................................................................................................ 164
 Dr. Ishrat Husain....................................................................................................................... 166

Islamic Studies
 Islamophobia and Western World.......................................................................................... 173
 Muslims’ Contributions to Scientific Thinking ..................................................................... 175

Kashmir
 India’s Failed Assumptions ..................................................................................................... 178
 Why Kashmir Matters .............................................................................................................. 180
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 Steps to Take for a Peaceful Kashmir ..................................................................................... 181

Law
 A Structural Malaise ................................................................................................................. 185

Middle East
 America’s Declining Influence in the Arab World ............................................................... 187
 The Palestinian Cause No Longer Binds the Arab World................................................... 189
 The Iranian-Israeli Cold War in the Gulf ............................................................................... 190

Olympics 2020
 Pakistan Needs Medal-Winning Olympians ........................................................................ 192

Organizations
 Is Iran’s Long Quest to Join the China-Led SCO Nearly Over? ......................................... 196
 Is it Worthwhile to Observe United Nations’ International Days? .................................... 197
 20 Years of The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ......................................................... 200
 SAARC as a Regional Platform ............................................................................................... 204
 UN Development System Reform ......................................................................................... 207
 G7 Flexes its Political Muscles Again ..................................................................................... 209

SDGs
 A Practical Way to Achieve SDGS in Pakistan ..................................................................... 211

Water
 Pakistan May Face Water Scarcity By 2040 ........................................................................... 213
 Ensuring Pakistan’s Water Security ....................................................................................... 214

Women
 Patriarchy and Violence against Women .............................................................................. 220
 Gender Equality in Jinnah’s Pakistan..................................................................................... 222
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Afghanistan
WHY AMERICA FAILED IN AFGHANISTAN
Henry A. Kissinger (Former US Secretary of State)
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan focuses the immediate concern on the extrication of tens of
thousands of Americans, allies and Afghans stranded all over the country. Their rescue needs to be our
urgent priority. The more fundamental concern, however, is how America found itself moved to
withdraw in a decision taken without much warning or consultation with allies or the people most
directly involved in 20 years of sacrifice. And why the basic challenge in Afghanistan has been conceived
and presented to the public as a choice between full control of Afghanistan or complete withdrawal.
An underlying issue has dogged our counterinsurgency efforts from Vietnam to Iraq for over a
generation. When the United States risks the lives of its military, stakes its prestige and involves
other countries, it must do so on the basis of a combination of strategic and political objectives.
Strategic, to make clear the circumstances for which we fight; political, to define the governing
framework to sustain the outcome both within the country concerned and internationally.
The United States has torn itself apart in its counterinsurgent efforts because of its inability to
define attainable goals and to link them in a way that is sustainable by the American political
process. The military objectives have been too absolute and unattainable and the political ones too
abstract and elusive. The failure to link them to each other has involved America in conflicts without
definable terminal points and caused us internally to dissolve unified purpose in a swamp of
domestic controversies.
We entered Afghanistan amid wide public support in response to the al-Qaeda attack on
America launched from Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. The initial military campaign prevailed
with great effectiveness. The Taliban survived essentially in Pakistani sanctuaries, from which it
carried out insurgency in Afghanistan with the assistance of some Pakistani authorities.
But as the Taliban was fleeing the country, we lost strategic focus. We convinced ourselves that
ultimately the re-establishment of terrorist bases could only be prevented by transforming
Afghanistan into a modern state with democratic institutions and a government that ruled
constitutionally. Such an enterprise could have no timetable reconcilable with American political
processes. In 2010, in an op-ed in response to a troop surge, I warned against a process so prolonged
and obtrusive as to turn even non-jihadist Afghans against the entire effort.
For Afghanistan has never been a modern state. Statehood presupposes a sense of common
obligation and centralisation of authority. Afghan soil, rich in many elements, lacks these. Building a
modern democratic state in Afghanistan where the government’s writ runs uniformly throughout the
country implies a timeframe of many years, indeed decades; this cuts against the geographical and
ethnoreligious essence of the country. It was precisely Afghanistan’s fractiousness, inaccessibility and
absence of central authority that made it an attractive base for terrorist networks in the first place.
Although a distinct Afghan entity can be dated back to the 18th century, its constituent peoples
have always fiercely resisted centralisation. Political and especially military consolidation in
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Afghanistan has proceeded along ethnic and clan lines, in a basically feudal structure where the
decisive power brokers are the organisers of clan defence forces. Typically in latent conflict with
each other, these warlords unite in broad coalitions primarily when some outside force—such as the
British army that invaded in 1839 and the Soviet armed forces that occupied Afghanistan in 1979—
seeks to impose centralisation and coherence.
Both the calamitous British retreat from Kabul in 1842, in which only a single European escaped
death or captivity, and the momentous Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 were brought
about by such temporary mobilisation among the clans. The contemporary argument that the
Afghan people are not willing to fight for themselves is not supported by history. They have been
ferocious fighters for their clans and for tribal autonomy.
Over time, the war took on the unlimited characteristic of previous counterinsurgency
campaigns in which domestic American support progressively weakened with the passage of time.
The destruction of Taliban bases was essentially achieved. But nation-building in a war-torn country
absorbed substantial military forces. The Taliban could be contained but not eliminated. And the
introduction of unfamiliar forms of government weakened political commitment and enhanced
already rife corruption.
Afghanistan thereby repeated previous patterns of American domestic controversies. What the
counterinsurgency side of the debate defined as progress, the political one treated as disaster. The
two groups tended to paralyse each other during successive administrations of both parties. An
example is the 2009 decision to couple a surge of troops in Afghanistan with a simultaneous
announcement that they would begin to withdraw in 18 months.
What had been neglected was a conceivable alternative combining achievable objectives.
Counterinsurgency might have been reduced to the containment, rather than the destruction, of the
Taliban. And the politico-diplomatic course might have explored one of the special aspects of the
Afghan reality: that the country’s neighbours—even when adversarial with each other and
occasionally to us—feel deeply threatened by Afghanistan’s terrorist potential.
Would it have been possible to co-ordinate some common counterinsurgency efforts? To be sure,
India, China, Russia and Pakistan often have divergent interests. A creative diplomacy might have
distilled common measures for overcoming terrorism in Afghanistan. This strategy is how Britain
defended the land approaches to India across the Middle East for a century without permanent bases
but permanent readiness to defend its interests, together with ad hoc regional supporters.
But this alternative was never explored. Having campaigned against the war, Presidents
Donald Trump and Joe Biden undertook peace negotiations with the Taliban to whose extirpation
we had committed ourselves, and induced allies to help, 20 years ago. These have now culminated
in what amounts to unconditional American withdrawal by the Biden administration.
Describing the evolution does not eliminate the callousness and, above all, the abruptness of the
withdrawal decision. America cannot escape being a key component of international order because
of its capacities and historic values. It cannot avoid it by withdrawing. How to combat, limit and
overcome terrorism enhanced and supported by countries with a self-magnifying and ever more
sophisticated technology will remain a global challenge. It must be resisted by national strategic
interests together with whatever international structure we are able to create by a commensurate
diplomacy.
We must recognise that no dramatic strategic move is available in the immediate future to offset
this self-inflicted setback, such as by making new formal commitments in other regions. American
rashness would compound disappointment among allies, encourage adversaries, and sow confusion
among observers.
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The Biden administration is still in its early stages. It should have the opportunity to develop
and sustain a comprehensive strategy compatible with domestic and international necessities.
Democracies evolve in a conflict of factions. They achieve greatness by their reconciliations.
(Source: The Economist)

AFGHANISTAN NEEDS REGIONAL CONVERGENCE

Mohammad Reza Manafi (Bureau Chief at IRNA)
The irresponsible withdrawal of the US and NATO military forces from Afghanistan has
created an undeniable necessity for the regional countries to play a key role in strengthening
security and stability in the war-torn country.
It has been frustrated by four decades of deadly war, violence, terror and poverty. Now,
Afghanistan is experiencing a historical juncture. Forced to stand at a turning point where the
Americans are pulling their troops. But without any tangible efforts for the Afghans’ safety and
security.
Concurrent with the military retreat, the government in Kabul has remained weak in dealing
with insecurity. While it has no control of its own country, the Taliban is taking the reins of most
parts of Afghan soil.
In such a difficult situation, the only factor that can save the country and its people is the
convergence by neighbouring states by taking joint decisions and pursuing constructive initiatives.
Obviously, neighbouring countries would profit the most from the security and stability in
Kabul. Therefore, regional players should naturally think of their neighbour’s security. A safe,
secure and stable Afghanistan is what its neighbours and all regional players are looking for.
States, including China, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Iran, have
common interests in seeing the country safe and secure. Now that the US and NATO are pulling out
of the territory, they can increase collabourations and try to restore peace and security in
Afghanistan.
China and Russia are quite worried about the recent developments in Afghanistan as they are
well aware of how insecurity in one country can affect the stability of the whole region. Moscow has
even asked the Taliban to prevent any threats against neighbouring states.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently warned of the risk of the violence in
Afghanistan spilling over into neighbouring countries.
“The threat of such a scenario remains a serious obstacle to the involvement of Afghanistan in
regional cooperation,” Lavrov said at a high-level international conference in Tashkent on Friday;
adding that the situation in Afghanistan had been “rapidly degrading” in the last few days.
Moscow is well aware that any spillover of violence into Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and
Tajikistan would, sooner or later, have negative impacts on Russia.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met his Afghan counterpart, Mohammed Haneef Atmar, in
Dushanbe to note how the hasty drawdown of the US and NATO had escalated tensions and wars
in Afghanistan; bringing the Afghan issue to crossroads. Holding an “Afghan-led and Afghan-
owned” principle, China was said to support the building of an inclusive political structure in
Afghanistan through dialogue and negotiations. The foreign minister claimed to support
Afghanistan to stand as an independent and neutral nation observing moderate Muslim policies, its
battle against all forms of terrorism and its co-existence with all its neighbours.
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Yi said that the pressing task at present remained to prevent civil wars and resume negotiations
within the Afghans; to work out solutions for political reconciliation and, in particular, prevent any
terrorist forces from invading Afghanistan.
Both Pakistan and Iran have long borderlines with Afghanistan. Each hosts over three million
Afghan refugees and would, undoubtedly, be affected the most by any deterioration of tension in
the war-stricken country. Afghanistan is a great trade partner for both Pakistan and Iran. Thus, a
more stable and secure Afghanistan would definitely be more beneficial for both countries.
Tehran and Islamabad are both worried about the spillover of violence and terrorism to their
soils, as the war-torn country could potentially be a safe haven for ISIS terrorists.
On the other side, Iran and Pakistan, with over six million registered and unregistered Afghan
refugees, have their own economic challenges and a grave joblessness problem. A new flow of
refugees could burden them far beyond their capacities. The Afghan safety predicament would not
impact these two countries alone. Rather the peace of the whole region is at stake here.
The current situation should be considered as a warning call for China, Russia, Pakistan and
Iran. Creating a multilateral initiative for a better future and a more secure region remains the
only way out.
(Source: Asia Plus)

IMPACT OF US WITHDRAWAL FROM AFGHANISTAN ON REGIONAL

COUNTRIES
Dr. Hakkı Uygur (Deputy Chair of the Center for Iranian Studies (IRAM) in Ankara)
Rahimullah Farzam (foreign policy expert at the Center for Iranian Studies)
With the United States’ 20-year operation in Afghanistan coming to an end on August 31,
Afghanistan appears to be heading for even greater uncertainty.
Over 200 districts and five provincial centers have fallen under Taliban control since May when
US forces officially began to leave the country.
Clashes between the Taliban and central government forces continue intensely.
In addition, ongoing peace talks between the Kabul administration and the Taliban in Doha, the
capital of Qatar, have stalled.
With the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan, the Taliban are expected to
intensify their attacks.
The Taliban’s rapid advance raises the prospect of a scenario similar to the civil war that
erupted following the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Countries in the region have increased diplomatic efforts because they do not want to be caught
off guard if such a scenario unfolds, affecting the entire region.
Many countries in the region want to address at least their own security concerns in
Afghanistan, which has earned the moniker “graveyard of empires”.
In order to share concerns about the latest developments in Afghanistan, Tehran, Moscow, and
Beijing have hosted Taliban delegations in recent weeks.
While some of these countries support Afghan stability for the development of regional trade,
the fight against human trafficking and drug smuggling, and the prevention of irregular migration,
others see the current instability as an opportunity to expand their spheres of influence.
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Iran
Iran, which shares an almost 900-kilometer-long border with Afghanistan, wants to play a
larger role in the country following the US withdrawal.
Tehran came to the brink of war with the Taliban in 1998 and cooperated with the US to
overthrow this organization in 2001, but with the conjuncture changing following the 2000s, it began
to collabourate with the Taliban against the US presence in Afghanistan.
Particularly since the US intensified its withdrawal negotiations with the Taliban in 2019, a
significant shift in Tehran’s attitude toward the Taliban has been observed.
During this time, Iran hosted a Taliban delegation twice: once in November 2019 and again in
February 2020, shortly after the US reached an agreement with the organization.
Despite ideological differences, Iranian officials recognize the importance of continuing to
cooperate with the Taliban, which has emerged as a key player in Afghan politics.
As a result, Iran has changed the language it used to refer to the Taliban.
For example, adjectives such as “takfiri” and “jihadist,” which were widely used in the
country’s press not only for the Taliban but also for many other groups posing threats to Iranian
interests and were used as significant arguments even during the Karabakh war, have vanished.
However, the now-realistic prospect of the Taliban becoming Afghanistan’s sole power to
reckon with remains a red line for Iran.
In fact, following the Taliban’s rapid advance in recent months, which has threatened the
central government’s existence, Tehran hosted a surprise meeting.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif hosted Taliban and Kabul delegations in Tehran on July 7.
During the meeting, Zarif urged both parties to return to the negotiating table.
Zarif declared that his country was ready to assist in bringing Afghanistan’s conflicting parties
to the negotiating table, stating that “...political leaders of Afghanistan must make difficult
decisions.”
Although there has not been much friction with the Taliban so far, which has taken control of
areas close to the Iranian border (including border crossings), the prevailing view in Tehran is that a
Taliban-led government in Afghanistan would pose a threat to Iran’s national interests in the
medium and long term.
For this reason, Iran has expressed a desire to use the Afghan Fatemiyoun militia (which it has
used on different occasions in Syria) in Afghanistan as well.
The dominance of traditional cultural codes in both administrations, as well as the way these
largely religious administrations treat the minority sects within them, suggests that long-term stability
in Afghanistan-Iran relations is unlikely if the Taliban gains complete control of the country.
Russia
Russia, another important actor making efforts towards a political solution in Afghanistan,
maintains contact with both the Taliban and the central government.
Moscow has recently hosted a series of Afghan peace talks.
Russia sees the US withdrawal as a critical opportunity to reestablish Moscow’s influence in the
post-Soviet era.
But on the other hand, it does not want the power vacuum created by this withdrawal to pose a
security risk to its immediate vicinity.
Moscow is also concerned that Afghanistan may end up becoming a safe haven for radical
elements hostile to Russia or supporting separatist groups in the Caucasus region.
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For this reason, Russian authorities are keeping a close eye on the developments in
Afghanistan.
Following the Taliban’s rapid advance, the Kabul delegation led by Hamdullah Mohib,
President Ashraf Ghani’s National Security Advisor, visited Moscow in July at the invitation of
Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev.
It was reported that the parties discussed the issues of security, terrorism, and fighting jointly
against drug smuggling, and that it was highlighted during the meeting that the instability in the
north of Afghanistan threatened Russia and Central Asia.
Following this meeting, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov announced that
Russia was prepared to use its base in Tajikistan to protect its allies in the Collective Security Treaty
Organization (CSTO) if necessary.
On August 6, the Russian army conducted joint military drills with the armed forces of
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan along the Afghan border in order to intimidate the Taliban, which had
taken control of the border regions.
Russia, which considers Central Asia and former Soviet Union member states to be within its
natural sphere of influence, acts as the security guarantor of these countries.
In this regard, the Afghanistan crisis represents a significant challenge to Russia’s role.
However, it is unlikely that Russia, which has a very negative image among Afghans as a result
of the long Soviet invasion of their country, would launch an armed intervention unilaterally.
China
China is another important player who is expected to be active in Afghanistan in the near
future.
Beijing’s main concern about Afghanistan is that a country-wide turmoil following the US
withdrawal could turn the region into a security nightmare for Beijing.
China is concerned that the revival of Daesh and similar formations in Afghanistan could then
fuel the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
In this context, one of the scenarios that have Beijing concerned is a cooperation between the
Taliban and the ETIM.
Following allegations in recent years that members of the Turkistan Islamic Movement were
being trained by the Taliban and sent to China, Beijing’s desire to establish a military base in
Wakhan, Afghanistan’s border region, came to light.
However, Beijing, which has developed good relations with the Taliban as a result of its
proximity to Islamabad, has so far been able to prevent such cooperation.
Beijing has acknowledged that it needs to cooperate with the Taliban to some extent to avoid
having problems in Afghanistan.
The Taliban has also responded positively to Beijing’s warm attitude.
The Taliban delegation that recently visited Beijing at the invitation of the Chinese government
promised not to interfere with China’s internal affairs and to not allow the territories of Afghanistan
to be used by groups that would threaten China’s national security.
In addition, Afghanistan is an important country for Beijing as it is located along the route of
China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Beijing prefers a stable Afghanistan not only to prevent the country’s turmoil from affecting the
Xinjiang region, but also to ensure the security of the Belt and Road Initiative.
China wants to play an active role in the economic field in Afghanistan but does not want to
intervene militarily.
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India
One of the other important powers in the region, India, has a policy in Afghanistan that can be
summarized as combating the influence of its traditional rival Pakistan and preventing Afghanistan
from becoming a base for extremist anti-Indian groups.
The New Delhi administration, which had previously avoided contact with the Taliban on the
grounds that it was acting on Pakistan’s orders, has reversed this policy.
As the Taliban began to rapidly expand their control area, Indian officials engaged in direct
talks with the Taliban.
Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s minister of external affairs, also paid diplomatic visits to
Iran and Russia to discuss the developments in Afghanistan.
India would like to be more active in Afghanistan as part of its efforts to play a more active role
in the international arena under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership.
In conclusion, the power vacuum that will emerge in Afghanistan with the withdrawal of the
US and NATO raises security concerns for and whets the appetite of many regional actors.
While countries such as Pakistan and Iran seek to expand their spheres of influence by forming
new militia groups or exploiting the instability in Afghanistan and their influence over the Taliban,
China and Russia are concerned that this instability will spread to their own borders and spheres of
influence.
These countries are in contact with both the Taliban and the Kabul government in anticipation
of a power split between the two.
Ultimately, the aim of the actors involved in the issue is to secure their spheres of influence and
to prevent the Afghanistan crisis from spreading beyond its borders.
When making plans involving Afghanistan, particularly the Kabul Airport, Turkey must
carefully consider the various groups of interest and the shaky alliances within this multi-actor
playing field.
In particular, the rapid dissolution of the Northern Alliance, which could be described as a
“Plan B”, Pakistan’s silence on the Turkish proposal, and the central government’s suspicious
ineffectiveness in dealing with Taliban attacks all demonstrate the importance of meticulous
calculations.
(Source: Anadolu Agency)

THE ROADS NOT TAKEN IN AFGHANISTAN

Despite Biden’s Claims, Catastrophe Was Not Inevitable
Kori Schake (Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute)
Since the fall of Kabul on August 15, US President Joe Biden and his top advisers have
advanced four main claims to justify the decision to withdraw American forces from Afghanistan
and to deflect criticism of the disastrous outcome. They have said that the mission in Afghanistan
was unsustainable without a dramatic escalation of US forces. They have argued that they had no
choice but to honor an agreement that the administration of President Donald Trump reached with
the Taliban that required the United States to withdraw its military forces from the country. They
have lamented that Afghanistan’s military was unwilling to fight the Taliban. Finally, they have
claimed that the administration “planned for every contingency” but that chaos was unavoidable.
None of those things are true—and Biden knows it. His cynical defense of a failed policy and its
inept execution are only adding to the damage caused by this catastrophe.
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A Hollow Defense
The administration’s case that the status quo was unsustainable rests on two premises. The first
is that the Taliban were inexorably gaining ground and could have been pushed back only with
large additions of US military forces. The second is that the only thing preventing US casualties was
the agreement that the Trump administration had made with the Taliban.
On the inevitability of a Taliban victory, perhaps one should credit the group’s own view of its
chances: “We have achieved a victory that wasn’t expected,” remarked the Taliban leader Mullah
Abdul Ghani Baradar after Kabul fell. The fact is that until relatively recently, Afghan security forces
had held their own against the Taliban, even as US and allied forces stepped back from direct
participation in the fighting. As recently as 2018, the Taliban controlled only four percent of
Afghanistan’s territory—just 14 largely rural districts out of 419 total. Meanwhile, 122 districts had
no Taliban presence at all. According to the US Department of Defense, until at least mid-2020,
Afghan national security forces were growing stronger and more capable of doing the fighting that
the United States wanted done but didn’t want to do itself.
What accounts for the reversal of fortunes that saw the Taliban gain momentum and the
Afghan military weaken? First, corruption in the Afghan state eroded public trust in the
government, encouraged greater support for the Taliban, and even funded the insurgency. As the
Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction concluded in a 2016 report,
“corrupt officials at all levels of government victimized and alienated the Afghan population.
Substantial US funds found their way to insurgent groups.” Worse yet, Washington was fully
complicit in the Afghan government’s decadence: according to the Afghanistan expert Sarah Chayes,
who advised the US military for many years, the Obama administration made a conscious policy
choice to permit corruption, because it was so pervasive among the very Afghan political leaders on
whom Washington’s strategy relied.
Corruption wasn’t uniquely or particularly a military problem; corruption among Afghan
police was far more problematic. But the Afghan government inflated its military budget by putting
“ghost soldiers” on its payrolls, allowing corrupt officials to skim $300 million. The Afghanistan
expert Carter Malkasian observed as early as 2009 that corruption led to many Afghan troops not
getting paid, with predictably damaging consequences for morale. Still, corruption coexisted with
progress, and the United States managed to limit the harm caused by graft by depositing money
directly into the bank accounts of Afghan soldiers.
That progress, however, evaporated with the Trump administration’s agreement with the
Taliban and the Biden team’s decision to adhere to it. The deal humiliated the Afghan government,
which was excluded from the negotiations but was required to release around 5,000 imprisoned
Taliban fighters as part of the agreement. The deal badly damaged morale in the Afghan military
and among the police, since Washington secured a promise from the Taliban to cease targeting US
personnel but won no such concession for Afghan forces. It is not uncommon for Washington to
negotiate with adversaries without the participation of US allies that will be affected by the result.
But the agreement with the Taliban allowed adversaries to attack US allies without any risk of
retribution—a concession without any clear precedent in US history.
The Biden administration has asserted that repudiating the agreement would have caused an
explosion of violence in Afghanistan, necessitating an escalation of US military involvement. Yet
even if that were true, the Afghan government and Afghan soldiers—and not American forces—
would have borne the brunt of it, and they were willing to do so. For them, continuing the fight with
limited US backing would have been far preferable to the current situation. And if coupled with
redoubled efforts to reduce corruption, a continuation of the US military mission would have
improved the Afghan government’s public standing. Biden has suggested that he had no choice but
to proceed with the Trump administration’s agreement with the Taliban. But such circumspection
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doesn’t appear to have constrained him from reversing Trump’s decision to withdraw the United
States from the Paris climate agreement or from seeking to reenter the Iran nuclear deal, from which
Trump walked away.
Biden’s contention that his administration “planned for every contingency” has been fully
exploded by finger-pointing leaks from within his own administration. And anyone watching the
botched exodus from Kabul can see that the administration was unprepared for this outcome, even
though intelligence agencies and diplomats had been warning for months about the prospect of a
rapid disintegration. Seeing American civil society organizations mobilize to help evacuate Americans
and Afghans who worked with US forces has been heartening but should not have been necessary.
Biden claims that Afghan President Ashraf Ghani pleaded with him not to evacuate Americans and
Afghans who worked with them earlier. But if, as Biden also contends, chaos was inevitable and the
timetable for withdrawal was already set and in motion, there was little reason for him to defer to
Ghani’s request. American veterans organizations had been pushing for months to get more people
out; in mid-July, the US embassy in Kabul also advocated accelerating the evacuation.
Finally, Biden’s shameful disparagement of the Afghan security forces ignores the reality about
who has done most of the fighting and dying in this war. As the writer and veteran of the Afghan
war Elliot Ackerman stingingly points out, “as much as we’ve heard about Afghans giving up the
fight, we should not forget who was the first to leave the battlefield: It was us.” Although every
casualty is cause for grief, it has been the Afghan security forces who have borne the brunt of losses
since at least 2007. Negotiations with the Taliban carried out by the Trump administration and the
Biden administration are not the reason that US casualties dropped; in truth, the United States has
suffered relatively few casualties since 2014, when Afghan forces took over primary responsibility
for direct combat operations against the Taliban. American casualties dropped not because the
Taliban stood down but because the Afghan military stood up.
Credibility Gap
It is hard to overstate the damage to US credibility wreaked by this fiasco. Biden’s cynical self-
justifications have not acknowledged the commitment of the other 36 countries with troops in
Afghanistan nor how Washington’s accelerated abandonment of the country has made it harder for
those countries to pull out safely and justify the mission to their publics. These countries have spent
20 years in Afghanistan not primarily because they consider Afghanistan essential to their security
but because they consider the United States essential to their security. The disastrous withdrawal
will make it harder for Washington to put together such coalitions in the future. And after the US
surrender to the Taliban, it will be hard for anyone to take seriously the Biden administration’s
posturing about promoting human rights and defending democracy—which are supposedly central
features of Biden’s foreign policy.
The Taliban’s success in Afghanistan will encourage jihadis everywhere. Whether the Taliban
are brazen enough to provide direct support to jihadis probably depends on their calculation of
Washington’s willingness to reengage in Afghanistan. A Taliban regime would be able to withstand
one-off US airstrikes; the group endured much worse when the United States had forces in country.
And the Taliban can reliably bank on Biden’s likely refusal to do more. The administration’s claims
that the United States will maintain the ability to carry out counterterrorism operations inside
Afghanistan are unlikely to deter jihadis, given the limits on US intelligence that will be the
inevitable consequence of ending the US military presence there.
It is true that Afghanistan is a marginal US interest. The Afghan war wasn’t a central front in a
conflict between great powers, comparable to Germany during the Cold War. It was more akin to
Korea in 1950 or to Vietnam in the 1960s. It is also true that the United States dramatically
overreacted to the threat of terrorism after 9/11, diverting the country’s trajectory and squandering
 15

both hard and soft power with its policy choices. US interests would have been better served and
American power better sustained by limiting the objectives in Afghanistan and not invading Iraq.
But none of that reduces the unnecessary damage that Biden has inflicted on Afghans, on US
allies, on his own broader foreign policy agenda, and on American power. The Biden team made
costly choices and is counting on public apathy to prevent any political blowback at home, even
calculating that the horrifying images of Afghans desperate to flee the country will eventually
benefit the president politically. Reputations matter in international politics, and the Biden
administration has just earned a bad one.
 16

Book Review
NUCLEAR RESPONSIBILITIES
A New Approach for Thinking and Talking About Nuclear Weapons
By Sebastian Brixey-Williams and Nicholas J. Wheeler
Reviewed by: Dr Rabia Akhtar (Director, Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research, University of
Lahore)
In his 1963 classic entitled The Strategy of Conflict, Thomas Schelling aptly delved into the need
to dovetail the threat of destruction with the promise of non-destruction in order to effectively deter
an adversary. Schelling’s famous ‘threats that leave something to chance’ was about manipulating
risks and uncertainties which, according to him, would be critical to surmounting the credibility
problem, especially in relation to extended deterrence (although, that could just be taken as a
deterrence-enhancement measure rather than one reflective of recklessness). However, cautioning
against being overtly reckless, Schelling argued that, “we must consider whether too great a capacity
to strike him (enemy) by surprise may induce him to strike first…” (Schelling, 1963, p.7). Schelling
was, in effect, alluding to the need to navigate the dilemma of deterrence: by striking a balance
between restraint, responsibility, and resolve.
Deterrence theory posits that a nuclear possessor must ensure that its prudence does not, in any
manner, give the impression that it lacks the resolve to ‘automatically’ take on the adversary if and
when it is needed. This predicament was thoroughly dissected by Peter Feaver in his 1992 article.
Feaver’s introduction of the always/never dilemma to the strategic literature is an important
contribution. Jeffery Lewis and Bruno Tertrais in their War on the Rocks article expand the dilemma
further by stating that “these twin goals are in tension…the weapons should “always” be available
for launch when ordered by a legitimate authority, but “never” if no legal order has been given.”
During peacetime and crises therefore, communications between warring parties revolve around
conveying resolve, demonstrating one’s own responsibility, and promoting reassurance, with each
trying to inform the world that the ongoing escalation or near-crisis is a result of the irresponsible
behavior of the other. Excessively manipulating risks could only go on to dampen the prospect of
maintaining crisis and deterrence stability.
In 2019, two nuclear-armed antagonists, India and Pakistan, were embroiled in a serious military
crisis that saw the use of airpower and the downing of aircraft, as well as the threat of missile strikes
by the former. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan led the country’s communications drive during
and after the crisis. Addressing the nation after Pakistan retaliated against India’s airstrikes, he
categorically said that, “we took time to respond, for we wanted to assess the damage that India’s
strike caused so as to avoid giving a disproportionate response. Our aim was just to demonstrate our
capability and resolve.” He added that all wars are caused by miscalculations, including but not
limited to underestimating the adversary’s capabilities and resolve. Without using the word ‘nuclear’,
PM Khan stressed the need to show responsible behavior, something that he continues to emphasize.
The crux of Pakistan’s current enunciations on the fragile state of regional stability is that it is a
responsible nuclear-possessor, and that India needs to act as one, too. All this points to Pakistan’s
understanding of its responsibilities as a nuclear possessor state.
This wrangling continues to be one of the causes of complex sets of nuclear risks in South Asia.
The problem is exacerbated by the fact that festering disputes between the two countries lessen the
prospect of meaningful engagements on arms control and nuclear risk reduction mechanisms. Apart
from the case of these South Asian nuclear rivals, there is growing polarization over most of the
 17

issues that define and shape the global nuclear order, as exemplified by the tug of war between
deterrence and disarmament advocates within and outside of the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
The gulf has widened due to the constant evisceration of arms control frameworks, increasing
reliance on nuclear weapons, the return of great-power acrimony, and the negotiation and entry into
force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).
The Nuclear Responsibilities Approach
With all this in mind, one could argue that the prospect of reducing nuclear risks, let alone
eliminating nuclear weapons, is bleaker than ever. With a view to navigating these structural issues
and bringing freshness to the discourse on nuclear weapons, Sebastian Brixey-Williams and
Nicholas J. Wheeler have co-authored a report entitled “Nuclear Responsibilities: A New Approach
for Thinking and Talking About Nuclear Weapons.” The report is part of the Programme on Nuclear
Responsibilities, a project launched by the British American Security Information Council (BASIC)
and the Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security (ICCS) at the University of Birmingham.
The project seeks to achieve three things.
First, it wants to enable stakeholders to develop new insights about their responsibilities vis-à-
vis nuclear weapons. Indeed, it is essential for everyone, directly and indirectly concerned with
nuclear weapons, to know of their responsibilities. For example, the room for military leaders,
responsible for their fighting formations, to engage in jingoism and chest-thumping greatly reduces
when nuclear weapons are added to the mix. A responsible behavior by the country’s nuclear
establishment could be questioned if other actors do not recognize the importance of restraint. So, if
the Indian military leadership, fully conversant with the ramifications of the nuclear factor, gives
provocative threats to Pakistan, India’s quest to be deemed as a responsible nuclear state will be
undermined. The same would, of course, be true were the roles reversed. This can only happen
through a broad-based, consistent dialogue on apprising states of their sets of responsibilities and
the avenues available for fulfilling them.
Second, it aims to introduce a new model that paves the way for a collabourative, respectful
dialogue that, in turn, allows stakeholders to discuss their conceptions of responsibilities and
identify differences and commonalities in their approach. The project’s focus on developing a new
model to facilitate dialogue is much-needed, especially because the established channels of dialogue
are not helping generate a substantive narrative on nuclear weapons. The RevCons of the
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) often end without or with only limited results, widening the schism
between the nuclear haves and the have-nots. Bilaterally, too, states are often unwilling to even talk,
let alone conclude arms control agreements or other risk reduction measures. Further, exploring new
approaches to parse nuclear issues is all the more critical given that the environment is seemingly
rigged against nuclear restraint. Not only have key treaties and agreements (e.g. the INF Treaty and
the JCPOA) been abandoned by essential parties, the ‘legitimate’ nuclear powers have also clearly
enhanced the role of nuclear weapons in their security policies.
Third, it hopes to fundamentally change “the nature of the contemporary global conversation
on nuclear weapons away from one characterised by rights, blame, suspicion, and varying degrees
of distrust towards one built on responsibility, cooperation, empathy, and even trust.” While this lies
at the heart of instituting successful processes of dialogue between various stakeholders, it is also the
most challenging one. It is noteworthy that, when pressured to adhere to Article VI of the NPT, the
United States conveniently shifted the onus of disarmament to the Non-Nuclear-Weapon States
under the “Creating the Environment for Nuclear Disarmament” (CEND) initiative. This will be one
of the biggest hurdles this project will face going forward. Mindful of this challenge, the authors
rightly note that, “a key obstacle standing in the way of achieving new risk-reduction practices –
unilateral or multilateral – is a chronic culture of blame within the global nuclear order.” They go a
 18

step further, arguing that the culture of recrimination germinates from both sides of the divide, each
of which vociferously defends what they consider as their rightful positions.
Cognizant of these seemingly insurmountable sets of concerns, the authors articulate that their
focus is not to identify who is failing to live up to their responsibilities, but rather to “draw attention
to the chronic culture of blame that fuels distrust and contracts the potential for empathy between
those who hold different perceptions of their nuclear responsibilities.”
The authors rightly shed light on how responsibility talk is not a new phenomenon in the nuclear
debate. Explaining the drawbacks and inadequacies of the current responsibility refrain, the authors
contend that shallow efforts by nuclear-possessors to continually highlight their being ‘responsible’
nuclear sovereigns will do little to revitalize a sense of shared responsibility. Indeed, the authors are
rightly hesitant about making too many claims about what is or is not ‘responsible’, and circumspect in
establishing a linkage between a nuclear state acting responsibly and the prospect of promoting a culture
of responsibility. This is primarily because, as lucidly explained by the authors, competing claims of
being ‘responsible nuclear weapon states’ – linked to William Walker’s Responsible Nuclear Sovereignty
concept – can become just another form of mud-slinging. States are all but likely to extol their responsible
behaviors, while reminding their adversaries of the need to act more responsibly or even accusing them
of gross irresponsibility, but this alone is unlikely to promote – and may even prevent – the more
meaningful kind of culture shift the authors would like to see.
The Two-step Nuclear Responsibilities Method
In a bid to traverse these sets of snags, the two-step Nuclear Responsibilities Method aims to
facilitate and support officials and publics, in thinking and talking about nuclear weapons.
Differentiating between “responsible” and “responsibilities”, the project aims to move the whole
question from which states are responsible/irresponsible, towards asking what each state’s
responsibilities are. If a state does want to keep describing itself as responsible, what is most important
is that it is willing to publicly tie this to specific policies/practices/behaviors, with lots of detail, but
also demonstrate an openness to hearing and perhaps even adapting to alternative points of view.
While one could argue that the use of the term ‘nuclear responsible state’ could be divisive , it is
also reasonable to expect that nuclear states want to be seen as responsible actors. The certificate of
responsibility is of great import for states that want, among other things, to enter into the global
nuclear commerce architecture. Moreover, they have to mollify allies and adversaries alike when it
comes to handling nuclear weapons. Thus, selling this recommendation to nuclear haves may be a
tall order, to say the least.
The report fittingly notes that focusing solely on states, while ignoring the roles and
responsibilities of all other stakeholders, limits our understanding of the intricacies involved in the
full spectrum of responsibilities and produces incomplete assessments. The authors point out that,
“any stakeholder with the capacity to influence nuclear weapons futures has responsibilities around
nuclear weapons and is therefore important to engage.” The project’s bid to add a diverse group of
people to the mix is all the more imperative in a fraught environment. At a time when gray zone
tactics, coupled with disruptive technologies, are upsetting the hierarchy of escalation and
challenging traditional notions of strategic stability, engaging a diverse range of individuals and
organizations is of the essence.
Involving a host of disparate groups, the “Critical Introspection” part of the Method invites each
party to critically analyze their own understanding of their responsibilities. The facilitated discussion
aims to enable parties to fathom their responsibilities, their sources, and their beneficiaries while bringing
to light conflicting responsibilities. Certainly, all this, coupled with the idea of self-accountability, will
strengthen the policymaking of a nuclear-possessor. Also, being open to the idea of self-analysis could
contribute towards enhancing transparency. Hence, this part of the Method could act as a confidence-
 19

building measure (CBM). That said, the results of this process may not necessarily do away with the
proclivities to hurl accusations. In addition, regardless of the intrusiveness of their appraisals, conflicting
parties are least likely to bend over backwards to accommodate others, if and when their security
interests dictate their deference to nuclear deterrence. Here, it is important to note that deterrence cannot
be achieved without mixing responsibility with a degree of risk. It is important to note that an element of
nuclear risk is not antithetical to this Method, for fear of a catastrophe could spring states into taking
actions, individually and collectively, with a view to enhancing shared responsibilities when it comes to
nuclear weapons.
The “Empathic Dialogue” stage of the Method lies at the heart of the project, and rightly so. Erecting
a framework of talks that allows parties to share their conceptions of responsibilities, ideas of nuclear
strategy and doctrine, and ascertain areas of convergence and divergence, inspires confidence. Dialogue
stands a better chance of eventually doing away with some of the most incendiary misperceptions. So,
the inclusion of this component in the Method will placate some critics. That the two stages are slated to
begin sequentially is significant and reflective of a realization that groundwork has to be laid before
parties can interact meaningfully to elicit mutual, strategic advantages.
It is fair to argue that the Method is a tad ambitious. Bringing together nations across the
deterrence-disarmament binary is a tough ask, especially if the parties are committed to maintaining
their maximalist positions on all matters nuclear. One could also predict that phase two could
become yet another fighting club, just like the RevCons. However, the report duly acknowledges the
pitfalls while informing readers that the project is still work in progress.
Through critical feedback on this report, previous dialogues have been conducted with a set of
five countries (detailed in the Report). The project’s findings will be presented at the Tenth RevCon.
Using this forum will open the Method to receiving accolade and opprobrium from the proponents
of deterrence and disarmament, respectively. This will only help the project team tease out more
conduits of cooperation. Though it will run the risk of making the Method a victim of something it
seeks to avoid: passing the buck to others. Nonetheless, the report will add a new dimension to the
interactions in the upcoming RevCon, a process that has been marred by obduracy and inflexibility.
Furthermore, the project is right in devising an engagement strategy across formats and levels. Two-
way, continuous engagements at bilateral, regional, and global levels will help various stakeholders
fully dabble with aspects of the concept, something that will increase the chances of its assimilation
going forward. This will only add substance to the overall program that aims to create a
considerable space for ‘Nuclear Responsibilities’ in the wider debate on nuclear weapons.
In sum, it would be reasonable to underscore that the success of the project will hinge upon a
buy-in from deterrence aficionados. A feedback-driven mechanism of this project may actually
enable it to harmonize its approach with the structure of global and nuclear politics. Preaching to the
choir doesn’t cut it. Thus, the authors of the report should, for starters, hypothesize as to how they
will sell the Method to Southern Asian leaders, especially given how the overall acrimony between
the two regional nuclear states, India and Pakistan, percolates in their nuclear relations.
(Source: BASIC)

THE ACCUMULATION OF CAPITAL BY JOAN ROBINSON

Book Review
Abdul Qadir
The economic analysis began with Adam Smith’s “the nature and causes of the wealth of
nation”, which run the world economy for up to a 100 years.
 20

Then Keynes’s General theory rescued economics from the infertility of the classical world. But
economists were conscious of a more general theory that bring long-term changes in population,
capital accumulation, and technical progress as well as relative prices and output.
A young Cambridge lady came with the book ‘The accumulation of capital’, which addressed
the Keynesian General theory in the long run. Her contribution was not only a complete set of
changes in relative prices and output in General theory, but her keen attention was on the overall
development of the economy. Mrs. Robinson follows Keynes and Harrod.
The wide movement involving a relative shift in the output of capital goods and consumer
goods or the share of wages and profits in the total product, these larger relative changes are an
integral part of Mrs. Robinson growth theory and the analysis of ramification between such changes
and the process of growth is one of the major contributions of her book.
Let’s come back to the Cambridge lady, which I mentioned that who was she?
Joan Morris was born in 1903 in the home of Fredrick Morris in England. She graduated from
Garton College Cambridge in 1925, but she did not receive a degree because no woman received it
until 1946 when the Queen’s mother received the first-ever Cambridge degree for a won. After
graduation, she married one of the known Cambridge economists ‘Austin Robinson’.
In 1933, she wrote a book ‘The Economics of Imperfect competition’, in which first time she
introduced the idea of elasticity of substitution and developed the analysis of the relationship
between marginal cost and marginal revenue and the integrated contribution to the imperfect
market is ‘Monopsony’.
Mrs. Robinson was one of the key members of the Cambridge Circus and a close fellow of the
Keynes. One of her masterpieces extended Keynesianism into the long run in 1956. Under her
supervision, two Nobel laureate works ‘Amartya Sen and Joseph Stiglitz’. Mrs. Robinson visited
many times to China, the Soviet Union, India, and North Korea. She was nominated for the Nobel
Prize in the 1970s era but for two reasons she was deprived. Firstly, she was female, and second her
sympathetic view about China, and finally, she said goodbye to the rapacious world since 1983.
This book of Mrs. Robinson is made of eight major portions with component chapters and some
miscellaneous notes. The book-I is a definition and explanation of some basic concepts. This portion
is not only a good introduction to Mrs. Robinson’s work but an excellent introduction to the whole
general economic analysis for the beginner.
In Volume-II, ‘Accumulation in the long run, which is the heart core argument of Mrs.
Robinson’s study, whither she introduced the growth model, which is later called Joan Robinson’s
model of capital accumulation. This model is based on some assumptions; that the economy should
be the laisse-fair closed, where capital and labour are only factors of production with fixed
proportion and technical progress will be neutral. She said there are two classes in the economy
worker and entrepreneur, the total national income distributed between them. Workers save nothing
while entrepreneurs save but consume nothing and invest their income for capital formation. Mrs.
Robinson states regarding an entrepreneur’s that; “If they have no profit the entrepreneur cannot
accumulate and if they do not accumulate, they have no profit”.
Joan Robinson’s model argued that net national income is the combination of total profit and
wage bill. In her model, she emphasized profit rate because profit rate depends on labour
productivity, total wage rate and capital-labour ratio. Thus, the profit rate shows the following some
relations.
i) If income rises and the wage rate fall then the profit rate will increase.
ii) If income rises and the wage rate becomes constant then still profit will rise.
iii) The profit rate also increases if the capital-labour ratio falls.
 21

The Golden age concept was also introduced by the iron lady in book II, whither she said that
the Golden age is a period in which the economy smoothly grows uninterruptedly. She described
the following two factors that determine the growth of the economy.
a) Capital growth rate
b) Population growth rate
When the population growth rate is equal to the capital growth rate then the economy will be in
full employment (Equilibrium), and She called this the Golden age. But in some conditions, this
equality is disturbed when the population growth rate is greater or lesser than the capital growth
rate. There are two ways to recover the equilibrium state, one is when the population growth rate is
greater than the capital growth rate, then there is a surplus of labour. So, the economy should need
to raise the profit rate then the capital growth rate will be rise.
Therefore, this upturn in profit rate will recover equilibrium. In the second condition, when the
capital growth rate is greater than the population growth rate then technological change will restore
equilibrium.
Mrs. Robinson also said that economy will be in the Golden age when the potential growth ratio
is being realized. The potential growth ratio shows the highest rate of capital accumulation that can
be permanently maintained at a constant rate of profit.
In Robinson’s growth model, capital accumulation depends upon profit-wage ratio and labour
productivity and gives importance to labour in technical progress, while in Harrods’ growth model,
capital accumulation depends on the saving-income ratio and capital productivity and gives
importance to capital in technical progress.
The onward potions from book III to VIII are supplements to book II. In book III, ‘The short
period’, she states that the short period theory of fluctuations in output emphasizes the link with the
long-term process of accumulation.
The portion-IV, ‘Money and Finance’ important crucks are the addition to the scarcity of
technical knowledge and the insufficient urge to invest, and higher interest rates can act as another
drag on the pace of accumulation.
The introduction of the rentier in Book-V brings with it consumption out of profits, with the
result that profits now equal the sum of net investment and rentier expenditure and the rate of
profit on capital is no longer equal to the growth ratio of the economy. But if the proportion of
profits devoted to consumption remains constant, golden-age conditions can emerge and
continue. Rentier consumption, however, assumes special significance under conditions of
primitive stagnation, when the paucity of technical knowledge makes the emergence of a technical
surplus and accumulation difficult, without depressing the living standards of workers below
subsistence levels. An increase in rentier thriftiness or elimination of rentiers would then make
accumulation possible provided the labour rendered surplus by the curtailment of rentier
consumption can be deployed in investment activity.
The analysis of accumulation with factors of production described in volume-VI, ‘Land and
Labour’ in which the general conclusion that emerges is that, if the share of rent in total output
remains constant and landowners maintain a constant ratio of expenditure to rents received, then
the emergence of a golden age becomes possible.
The final portions, book-VII and VIII deal with relative prices and international trade
respectively. But even here, Mrs. Robinson gives a refreshing twist to familiar things. Thus, it is
argued that what breaks the boom is the emergence of bottlenecks in the investment goods sector.
The well-known theorem that the investment sector experiences greater proportional fluctuations
than the economy is established quite neatly in terms of the fact that the share of quasi-rent in the
value of sales is normally higher during the boom than on the average over the long run.
 22

The notes on various topics at the end especially “Wicksell on Capital” and “Harrod’s
Dynamics” greatly facilitate the readers to understand the concise study of Mrs. Robinsons’.
Joan Robinson wrote in the conclusion portion that the reader must draw his conclusions for
himself. So, I conclude from the Mr. Harrod searching model, that model comprises of three main
points, which Harrod want; The first he said that the model should be dynamic, not static, the
second he argued that the model must be general not the partial and third point is that the model
should prove empirically based on some principle not just only theoretical. So, these points are the
main pillars of Mrs. Robinson’s work, which extended Keynesianism in the long run.
(Source: Daily Times)
 23

Climate Change
JOE BIDEN’S MONUMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL GAMBIT
NYT Editorial
It is hard to overstate the joy of the environmental community when Joe Biden ascended to
the White House. In place of a man who called climate change a hoax, it got someone who saw
global warming for the grave threat it is, and who spoke, at his inaugural, of the world’s duty to
respond to “a cry for survival” that “comes from the planet itself.” It got someone who saw
government regulations not as “job killers” but as appropriate levers to achieve cleaner air and
water. It got someone who viewed the public lands not as a resource to be exploited by
commercial interests but as nature’s gift to future generations. A worthy custodian, in short, to the
environmental ethic of Teddy Roosevelt, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. And someone who would
spend trillions to make it all happen.
We are now at the midpoint of Mr. Biden’s first year. How has he done? In simplest terms, given
the deep ideological divide in Congress, he has accomplished a good deal more than his chattering
critics on the left wing of his party give him credit for, but still well short of his own hopes.
Those hopes were high. Unlike his predecessor, Mr. Biden took seriously the scientific
consensus that the world needs to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees
Celsius above preindustrial levels in order to avert irreversible planetary damage — including, but
not limited to, die-offs of coral reefs, sea level rise, drought, famine, wildfires and floods. Mr. Biden
pledged to cut America’s emissions in half by 2030, eliminate fossil fuel emissions from power
plants by 2035 and zero out all greenhouse gas emissions by midcentury, which is pretty much what
scientists recommend for the entire world.
That, in turn, would require a vastly different energy landscape — massive investments in wind
and solar power, a rebuilt electric grid, millions of electric vehicles. In recent weeks, the chances of
this happening at the required scale looked dim as Congress and the White House wrangled over an
infrastructure bill. The bill contains useful climate-related provisions, including money for charging
stations for electric cars, and communities that wanted to fortify themselves against climate-related
disasters. This was less than Mr. Biden wanted, but his critics reacted as if there were nothing there
at all, sending protesters to the White House and Capitol Hill. “No climate, no deal,” they said —
and accused the White House of “climate denialism.”
“Democrats are once again throwing the climate justice movement under the bus,” declared
Friends of the Earth last month. Hardly.
Last Wednesday came some good news: The White House and top Democrats agreed in principle
to a $3.5 trillion budget package that includes many of the important climate provisions that did not
make it into the infrastructure bill. The package is only a blueprint. Individual committees will make
legislative recommendations that will then be bundled into a giant budget reconciliation bill. If
properly drawn up, budget reconciliation measures can be approved with only 51 votes, thus avoiding
a Republican filibuster and providing a political pathway for not only Mr. Biden’s climate policies but
also a range of expensive programs involving health care, education and immigration.
There are two key climate provisions in the package. One is billions in tax incentives for electric
cars and renewable energy sources like wind and solar. The other is a national clean electricity
standard, a mandate requiring electric utilities to steadily reduce emissions. Unanswered so far is what
that standard should look like. Moderates think the standard should be technology neutral, allowing
utilities to use not only wind and solar but also nuclear power as well as a technique known as carbon
 24

capture and sequestration, which strips off harmful greenhouse gases and buries them in the ground.
However, many climate activists, the very ones who have been on Mr. Biden’s neck, reflexively hate
nuclear power, though it is carbon-free, and they argue heatedly that carbon capture simply throws a
lifeline to fossil fuels like coal and natural gas. In sum, another fight is brewing.
In any accounting of Mr. Biden’s environmental record, the negotiations over climate, with their
big ambitions and big numbers, occupy center stage. But other important initiatives deserve
mention. In May, for instance, in response to a congressional directive, the Environmental Protection
Agency proposed regulating hydrofluorocarbons, man-made chemicals used in refrigeration and
air-conditioners that are many times more potent than carbon dioxide in warming the planet. Earlier
this year, Congress voted to reinstate an Obama-era rule designed to clamp down on emissions of
methane, another powerful greenhouse gas, from new drilling wells. Mr. Biden aims to go further,
directing his E.P.A. administrator to write new rules in the coming months requiring oil and gas
companies to control methane leaks from existing drilling sites.
The administration is also expected to reinstate Obama-era rules mandating reductions in
tailpipe emissions of greenhouse gases (vehicles are now the nation’s largest source of climate-
warming emissions) and then begin work on even more ambitious rules that could force automakers
to move more swiftly to a largely electric fleet.
(Source: The New York Times)

THE CHALLENGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Dr Rafi Amir-Ud-Din (Assistant Professor at COMSATS University Islamabad, Lahore Campus)
Turkey recently witnessed one of the worst wildfires in its history. Over two hundred wildfires
burnt forests spread over 400,000 acres of land. Not surprisingly, the fire was not limited to Turkish
borders. It was part of a more extensive series of wildfires that engulfed part of Greece and were
caused by an unprecedented heatwave this year in many parts of the world.
In June-July this year, North America also witnessed one of the most intense heatwaves, with
temperatures reaching as high as 49.6 degrees Celsius in Canada. The intense heat wave triggered
wildfires in many parts of Canada and the USA.
In 2020, bushfires in Australia destroyed 24.7 million acres of land (which is equivalent to 11
percent of Pakistan’s land area) and killed over a billion animals. Some animal species that managed
to survive the inferno are on the verge of extinction. In the last monsoon season, Karachi received
484 mm (19 inches) rain, which was the highest in the 90 years. Such extreme weather events are
potent reminders that climate change is real and dreadful, and has started taking its toll in more
dramatic ways than we had expected. Extreme weather events are none other than the dreaded
climate change.
There is incontrovertible evidence that human activities cause climate change. We need to
continuously remind ourselves about the mechanism and pathways through which human activities
degrade the environmental quality. Greenhouse gases are primarily responsible for adverse climate
change. The key greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated
gases (F-gases).
It is not difficult to see how human activity contributes to greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon
dioxide is emitted through deforestation, land clearing for agriculture, and degradation of soils.
Agricultural activities, waste management, energy use, and biomass burning all contribute to
methane emissions. Agricultural activities, such as fertiliser use, are the primary source of nitrous
oxide emissions. Industrial processes, refrigeration and the use of various consumer products
contribute to emissions of F-gases.
 25

Global data on carbon emissions shows that the largest carbon-emitting sectors are electricity
and heat production (25 percent), agriculture, forestry and other land use (24 percent), industry (21
percent), transportation (14 percent), other energy (10 percent) and building (6 percent).
Electricity and heat production requires the burning of coal, natural gas and oil. Greenhouse
gas emissions from the industry primarily involve the burning of fossil fuels at energy facilities.
Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use come primarily from
agriculture (cultivation of crops and livestock) and deforestation.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector involve burning of fossil fuels for
road, rail, air and marine transportation. Greenhouse gas emissions from the buildings sector arise
from on-site energy generation and burning fuels for heat in buildings or cooking in homes.
Greenhouse gas emissions from other energy sources include all emissions from the energy sector
which are not directly associated with electricity or heat production, such as fuel extraction, refining,
processing and transportation.
Climate change has massive economic and health consequences. According to one estimate,
climate change could directly cost the world economy $7.9 trillion (roughly 3 percent of global GDP)
by mid-century as increased drought, flooding and crop failures hamper growth and threaten
infrastructure. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Climate Change Resilience Index assessed
the preparedness of the world’s 82 largest economies and found that Africa was most vulnerable to
climate change, with potentially 4.7 percent of its GDP lost to climate change by 2050. Longer-term
projections paint even more grim pictures. According to an estimate, per capita income in Latin
America, Africa and South Asia will decrease by more than 50 percent by 2100.
Climate change affects health outcomes by affecting health’s social and environmental
determinants – clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter. Between 2030 and
2050, climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year from
malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress. A more drastic impact of climate change is on
mortality rates. Climate change will exacerbate heat-related health issues and increase mortality
rates in the world regions such as equator that already experience high temperatures.
The equatorial zone is very hot and high temperatures become increasingly dangerous as
temperatures rise further. For example, Accra, Ghana, is projected to experience 160 additional
deaths per 100,000 residents by 2100. In colder regions, mortality rates are predicted to fall. Oslo,
Norway, is projected to experience 230 fewer deaths per 100,000. But for the world, adverse effects
are predominant, and on average, 85 additional deaths per 100,000 will occur.
Climate change may already have done irreversible damage to the ecosystem. A UN report
reveals that global temperatures now hover around 1.1 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels,
and our actions may already have irreversibly altered the earth. We already see the impacts of the
human-caused climate crisis as global temperatures climb ever closer to the 1.5 degrees Celsius
mark—the level often touted as the point where natural systems begin to collapse, triggering
permanent changes and transforming life as we know it.
This change has led to more frequent and extreme weather events like severe wildfires, flooding
and record-breaking heat worldwide. Sea levels continue to rise and scientists cannot rule out a
multi-feet rise in the sea level in the next century if carbon emissions are not drastically cut.
Though environmental degradation has already reached unsustainable levels, not all nations
are equally responsible for climate degradation. Only a few nations contribute more than half of the
global carbon emission. According to one estimate, China’s share in global carbon emission is 30
percent, followed by the USA (15 percent), India (7 percent), Russia (5 percent) and Japan (4
percent). The share of the European Union is 9 percent, while the rest of the world contributes 30
percent of the global carbon emission.
 26

Regarding the mitigating strategies, the problem is twofold: rich nations emit
disproportionately more carbon and use their political clout to defeat effective legislation, while the
developing nations do not have enough resources to switch to safe energy. Several regions that
contribute relatively little to the climate change — regions with relatively low per capita emissions
— nevertheless suffer relatively high climate damage per capita. Though the consequences of
climate change are grim for every country of the world, the developing countries are most
vulnerable and least prepared to mitigate the effects of climate change.
The solution lies in disseminating the consequences of continued unsustainable economic
activities, sensitising the public about the hazardous human activities and coordinated efforts at the
regional and global levels to cut carbon emissions. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions can help
reduce pollution, improve air quality and benefit health in myriad ways. Even a miniscule increase
in the global warming matters — and so every choice we make matters.
The extent to which we cut greenhouse gas emissions now will directly affect the vulnerability
of current and future generations and the wide array of the planet’s plant and animal life.
The opportunity to limit temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius is tiny, but it is still there if
we take urgent and robust action. The leaders must immediately raise the ambition of their short and
long-term country pledges under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Policymakers must act on the overwhelming evidence of dangers we currently face and will
continue to confront if the world fails to reduce emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s inauguration of a Miyawaki urban forest in Lahore as part of his
10 billion tree tsunami project is a welcome step. However, the real impact of the project will
crucially depend on the political will of this government and the future governments’ support of an
important sustainable development goal.
(Source: TNS)

THE PROBLEMS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Giancarlo Elia Valori (Eminent Italian Economist)
In recent years, increasing evidence has shown that the world is warming. Scientists’ research
tells us that the cause of global warming in recent decades is most likely to be a large number of
greenhouse gases released as a result of industrial production and everyday life habits.
Due to the huge environmental disasters it can cause on a world scale, global warming has also
attracted the attention of governments, media and people in various countries. In order to avoid
irreversible environmental disasters due to global warming caused by human activities,
governments have convened multiple international conferences under the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change.
For the man in the street, global warming seems to be just an abstract concept, something far
removed from him. In his view, how to deal with global warming falls within governments’
responsibility and he has nothing to do with it. Global warming, however, is something that is really
happening and will affect everyone’s life on the planet.
Food, clothing, housing and transport can be affected directly or indirectly by global warming.
As members of the global village, we ordinary people should also understand some basic concepts
about global warming and actively respond on our own initiative.
According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the global average temperature from 2016
to 2020 was the warmest one ever recorded – approximately 1.1°C higher than in the period from
1850 to 1900 (the base period for temperature changes relative to the industrial revolution), and
 27

higher than in the 2011- 2015 period. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
predicts that by 2100 the global temperature will increase by about 1.4-5.8°C and the global climate
will undergo huge changes never seen in the last 10,000 years.
Climate change is closely related to human society as the frequency, intensity and duration of
extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, hurricanes and heat waves increase. The Global
Risk Report 2020 issued by the World Economic Forum underlined that environmental issues such
as extreme weather events, failure to respond to related problems, and natural disasters are
considered high-risk events with high probability of occurrence and greater impact.
With a view to actively responding to the climate crisis and achieving sustainable development,
and to helping people fully understand the socio-economic impact of future temperature increases,
scientists are carrying out a great deal of research. This theoretical and empirical evidence is of great
importance for the implementation of adaptive strategies to allocate resources to ensure public
safety from natural disasters.
The normal metabolism of the human body requires a constant body temperature between
36~37°C. When the human body is exposed to a high temperature environment for a long time, the
metabolic function of the body decreases: the blood supply to the central nervous system decreases
as the blood vessels in the skin expand; the actual volume of fluid circulating in the blood vessels
becomes thinner as water loss increases, and the internal body temperature gradually rises.
When the temperature of the human body exceeds 39°C, it is not only a sign of some ongoing
disease, but this temperature can cause heat-related illnesses such as exhaustion, heat cramps and
heatstroke. With water loss, the body’s water and electrolytes can become unbalanced; blood
viscosity and cholesterol levels increase; blood vessels dilate; blood circulation accelerates; the heart
and lung systems overload, which in turn causes cardiovascular events (such as heart attack and
stroke), thus increasing the likelihood of death.
It is worth noting that there are also significant differences in the impact of heat-related illnesses
on different groups of people. The elderly, children and outdoor workers are more vulnerable to
heat-related illnesses and accidental injuries than the rest of the population.
On days with high temperatures, older people with reduced physical function and poor health
or chronic diseases are more likely to suffer. For the impact of heat-related illnesses such as stroke,
kidney and respiratory diseases, the risk of death is 10.4% higher than on days with a temperate
climate. Considering the accelerating ageing of population, the health risks caused by climate
change in the future could be more severe in a geometric-sequential form.
Increased exposure to heat caused by climate change can also damage the health of unborn
children. On the one hand, heat can directly lead to faster delivery, shorter pregnancies and lower
birth weight.
A paper published in 2020 by Alan Barreca and Jessamyn Schaller in Nature Climate Change
examined over 56 million births in various counties in the USA between 1969 and 1988. The results
of the study showed that on days when the maximum temperature exceeded 32.2°C, the birth rate
increased by 5%, the number of pregnancy days decreased by an average of 6.1 days and some
births occurred as much as two weeks earlier.
A paper published in 2009 by Oliver Deschenes, Michael Greenstone and Jonathan Guryan in
the American Economic Review found that the warm weather experienced during pregnancy
(especially in the second and third quarter) had a worrying negative impact on the baby’s birth
weight. The authors predicted that, by the end of the 21st century, the average birth weight of white
babies would decrease by 0.22% (7.5 grams) and the average birth weight of black babies would
decrease by 0.36% (11.5 grams).
 28

On the other hand, high temperatures will affect the yield potential of major crops, threaten
food security and increase food prices, thus indirectly affecting health issues such as nutrition (also
considering the obvious decrease in available water on the planet), immunity, and the birth of
infants and the growth of young children.
Health is one of the important elements of human capital. Many research findings confirm that
exposure to high temperatures during the foetal period has a significant negative impact on an
individual’s cognitive abilities and long-term human capital accumulation. In 2019 the Journal of
Environmental Economics and Management edited a paper by Ram Fishman, Paul Carrillo and Jason
Russ in 2019, based on a group of employees in an Ecuadorian education department born between 1950
and 1980. The temperature has a negative impact on the level of education and income in adulthood: for
every 1°C increase in the average monthly temperature during pregnancy, the probability that a person
receives secondary education will decrease by 0.2% and the level after adulthood will decrease by 0.7%,
with women being the most affected (0.86% compared to 0.59% for men).
Finally, high temperature will also have a great impact on workers’ productivity. When the
human body is exposed to a high-temperature environment, the increase in internal body
temperature will stimulate the nerve centre, leading to self-protective fatigue, decreased strength
and muscle endurance, thus reducing productive efficiency.
A paper published in 2018 by Peng Zhang, Olivier Deschenes, Kyle Meng, Junjie Zhang in the
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management used the detailed production data of 500,000
workers from 1998 to 2007 and adopted the fixed-effect model of data to study the effect of
temperature on the total factor of firm-level productivity (TFP) and the influence of input and
output factor. It is demonstrated that the productive efficiency of both labour-intensive and capital-
intensive firms shows sensitivity to high temperatures: compared to a standard of 10-15.6 °C, when
the maximum daytime temperature exceeds 32.2°C, TFP will be reduced by 0.56%.
As we continue to examine the studies on climate change that is raising the average
temperature of the planet, it must be said that the impact of temperature on production efficiency at
too low or too high temperatures negatively affects production efficiency and causes significant
economic losses.
Outdoor workers are more severely threatened by high temperature heat waves due to
prolonged exposure to excessively hot environments. When the high temperature (33°C) lasts for ten
days, the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases in the outdoor worker group increases by 149%.
The 2020 China report by the prestigious journal ‘The Lancet’ calculated that in 2019 Chinese
outdoor workers lost about 0.5% of their potential working hours due to high temperatures, thus
causing a 1% loss of the country’s gross domestic product (126 billion dollars), which is equivalent to
China’s total annual budget for science and technology.
Heat does not only affect physical health, but also mental health such as emotions, etc. In 2020
Patrick Baylis published an article in the Journal of Public Economics, one of the leading economic
journals, to identify people’s latent preference for temperature. He used the public’s emotional
expressions on Twitter from June 2014 to October 2016 as a source of information to construct daily,
monthly and annual data on working days, holidays, and time trends specific to worker status. He
noted people’s emotional response to temperature in the work environment. People’s emotions are
generally negative in relation to normal temperature trends (20-25 °C), and people’s mood index
drops from 0.1 to 0.2 or more on hot days (35-40 °C).
The influence of temperature also affects the sociability index.
Furthermore, Baylis used the exogenous impact of income (quarterly salary changes or parking
fines, speeding fines, etc.) to economically measure this emotional response. He found that the
economic value of a deviation for large differences in temperature affects the mutual willingness
 29

index between people. The willingness to invest money to reduce the maximum daily temperature
from 30-35°C to 20-25°C is between 11.94 and 4.77 dollars (depending on salary or the amount of
fines incurred).
It is worth noting that the accumulation of negative emotions will cause more social problems,
such as depression, suicide, instigation of criminal activities and aggravation of human conflicts. In
2018 Marshall Burke, Felipe González, Patrick Baylis, Sam Heft-Neal, Ceren Baysan, Sanjay Basu
and Solomon Hsiang edited a paper in “Nature Climate Change” that analysed the relationship
between suicide rates and high temperatures. The results showed that for every 1°C increase in the
average monthly temperature, suicide rates in US counties and in some cities in Mexico increased by
0.7% and 2.1%.
In 2013 Solomon M. Hsiang, Marshall Burke and Edward Miguel published a paper in
“Science”, after reviewing the relevant literature, and found that extreme weather conditions can
easily lead to individual and group violent crimes and property crimes, as well as political turmoil
in poor countries and personal aggression and violence.
Such behaviours will increase with high temperatures. Moreover, the resulting extreme rainfall
has widened the income gap by affecting agricultural production. The authors discussed the related
mechanisms of change in the state of affairs, including climate change, which will alter the supply of
resources, as well as exacerbate social inequality and cause human conflicts. This will also reduce
socio-economic productivity, thus weakening the monitoring of government agencies and
suppressing the control of crime intensity.
Population migration and fast urbanisation caused by climate change will lead to competition
for very limited local resources. Climate change will affect people’s physiological mechanisms and
reduce their ability to make rational judgements. People will become more abusive and
confrontational, which in turn will lead to greater destabilisation.
The 2015 study by Matthew Ranson (2014) published in the Journal of Environmental
Economics and Management also shows that a high-temperature climate will trigger more criminal
activity and it is estimated that, between 2010 and 2099, the social costs of criminal activity in the
United States due to climate change will reach between 29 and 78 billion dollars.
In summary, the impact of climate change on human health and socio-economic development
cannot be underestimated. Consequently, climate change is a global challenge that defies national
borders and urgently requires close cooperation among all countries. On December 12, 2015 at the
Conference held in the French capital on climate change, the Paris Agreement was adopted, calling
for global action against climate change.
It has become an important part of human history following the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (Rio de Janeiro 1992) and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. It is the third
milestone in international case law to address climate change, planning a new path for global
climate research.
The main objective is to keep the global average temperature increase in this century within 2°C
and bring the global temperature increase within 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.
The People’s Republic of China, a responsible developing country, has always attached great
importance to tackling climate change. On September 3, 2016, China formally adhered to the Paris
Agreement and became the twenty-third country to complete ratification. In September 2020,
President Xi Jinping solemnly declared at the General Debate of the 75th General Assembly of the
United Nations that the People’s Republic of China will enhance its efforts to collabourate on climate
improvement, strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by
2060 (Green Development, regarded as indispensable to building a green civilization, as indicated by
 30

the de-carbonization targets), as well as “actively respond to climate change” as early as the 14th
Five-Year Plan 2021-2025.
According to the 2019 Annual Report on China’s Climate Change Policies and Actions,
published by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment led by Huang Runqiu, China’s carbon
dioxide emissions per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 4% in 2018, with a 45.8%
cumulative decrease since 2005, which is equivalent to a reduction of 100 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide. Furthermore, non-fossil energy accounted for 14.3% of total energy consumption, thus
substantially reversing the fast growth in carbon dioxide emissions, and made an important
contribution to the response to global climate change.
However, more effective policies and measures are still needed to ensure the fulfilment of the
2060 commitment and to minimise the health burden of climate change on the world’s population.
(Source: Modern Diplomacy)
 31

Covid-19
THIS IS WHAT COVID-19 DID TO INTERNATIONAL STUDENTS
Muhammet Ali Güler (International Islamic University, Malaysia)
The world is struggling to cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus does not
show mercy on anyone, young or old. It has caused millions of deaths.
In most countries, the economy took a huge hit, causing business closures and job loss for
millions of people. Worldwide, nations are struggling to provide economic relief packages for their
citizens. Many people are suffering to survive and rebuild their lives.
Despite the worldwide coverage of the pandemic, issues faced by international students are
rarely reported, even though the students are highly affected by this disaster economically and
socially. In this case, international students find it harder to access affordable tuition, insurance and
accommodation options.
Since 2000, the number of international students worldwide has grown to almost 6 million in
2018. This number is even larger than the population of dozens of countries across the globe.
International students have had significant economic, social and cultural contributions worldwide.
For example, the United States received over 1 million international students, which generated
around $50 billion in 2019. The sheer size of this industry has attracted nations to focus on it.
Normally, international students are asked to pay for tuition on time to secure their enrolment.
They have a significant economic contribution to the institution and their host nations. However,
there is little attention given to the well-being of international students, specifically during the
pandemic.
The coronavirus outbreak has created terrible outcomes for trade, commerce, business and
education. Lockdowns have caused the stop of tourism, closures of businesses and education is
being held online. The cost of living globally has increased.
The pandemic has made the complex process of being an international student more
complicated. While bureaucracy is common for international students, they have been plagued with
even more obstacles after the pandemic. For example, the documentation process in renewing a visa
has become more difficult than before. In some countries, such as Malaysia, international students
are required to return to the country to renew their student visas. This creates a challenge during the
global pandemic.
If I am to return to Malaysia, it will cost me triple the amount for expenses, quarantine,
accommodation, etc. Hence, as an international student, I am one of the victims since the COVID-19
cases erupted. Besides that, it will be very risky to travel while most scientists call on people to stay
at home or avoid unnecessary trips.
I completed my courses in 2017 and lived in Malaysia for almost three consecutive years. I
believe that there are thousands of international students who are in a similar situation to mine. It
would be helpful if universities understand this issue and collabourate with their respective
governments to lend a hand to international students on this issue.
While we could pay the tuition, insurance and other pre-costs through online payment and
register courses and attend courses online, it is dumfounding why we cannot renew our student visa
through the embassy.
There are millions of jobless people from all walks of life. Millions of people are struggling to
gain access to everyday necessities and food. Why am I supposed to spend such a huge amount in
 32

such uncertainty? Frankly, these factors create a challenge for me to continue my Ph.D. I also have
been thinking of quitting my Ph.D. due to these reasons alongside some other factors. It is very easy
to say you can handle it because I’m an international student, which is a mentality that should also
be changed.
Having a Ph.D. does not mean securing a decent job. We still need to knock on numerous doors.
Yes, we look for knowledge, but it does not mean we have millions of years and money to squander.
The role of universities
International students are truly cultural ambassadors, while universities should demonstrate
kindness, tolerance and understanding of their struggle at the highest level. Just teaching the
subjects without planting practical social, national and universal values will create selfish and
arrogant individuals. A university provides educational and cultural changes and interactions. In
this unique environment, sometimes, you might be surprised when a high-ranking officer from a
unit or department in your reputable university replies to you when you need help the most.
Numerous platforms have come out with their ranking of the best universities annually. I
believe that the best is the one that respects the students, prioritizes the well-being of their students
and to be able to solve any problems faced by students effectively and objectively, which will help
students gain problem-solving and creative thinking skills. A university is the real battleground for
the clash of ideas and pulling and arising new universal ideas. Fear of failure, fear of intimidation
and so on should not daunt students. For example, it is claimed that almost half of Ph.D. graduates
have mental and physiological issues. So, we are the ones creating problematic societies.
It should be changed. Education is a universal right of any individual. It should not be a sector
to satisfy one’s own economic, physical and psychological interests.
During my master’s degree years in the International Islamic University, Malaysia, I had two
great, friendly, humble and helpful supervisors, namely, professor Dr. el Fatih Abdullahi
Abdelsalam as the main supervisor and assistant professor Norhaslinda Bt. Jamaiudin as co-
supervisor. The communication between my supervisors and myself was very good. I just knocked
on the door whenever I had any issue, and they were willing to discuss it with me. No drama, no
excuses. I’m grateful that they contributed to my career. And the department of political science was
like a team in the champions league, honestly, except a few harsh and challenging names. It was a
joyful, valuable period and an honor for me to be a part of this department and university.
Education is the best part of our lives. However, so that we have memorable moments that
could take us to the skies, not the other way around, it should not be forgotten that international
students are truly cultural ambassadors. So I kindly ask all countries to consider easing the visa
procedures for international students pursuing their studies.
(Source: Daily Sabah)

THE CALAMITY OF COVID-19

Patrick Gathara (Nairobi based award-winning writer)
Last year, American billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft founder, Bill Gates, was roundly
condemned by many for peddling racist stereotypes of African helplessness after he warned that the
coronavirus pandemic could overwhelm public health services within the continent and lead to 10
million deaths. And as the pandemic seemed to bypass the continent, Western media puzzlement
over why Africans were not dying at the rates Americans and Europeans were, and why the
expected biblical scenes of plague-ravaged Black masses had not materialised, were similarly met
with outrage.
 33

However, today as Covid-19 deaths ramp up across Africa, and with vaccine access for many
proving to be a mirage, many of the same doomsday scenarios and associated implications of
Africans as powerless to resist their fate, are being heard once again. Only this time, it is Africans
themselves who seem to be selling the story.
Just in the past week, in an article published in Nature, Dr Mosoka Fallah, deputy director for
technical services in the National Public Health Institute of Liberia, said “mass fatalities from COVID-
19 have begun in Africa” and “the wealthy world must rally or nations will collapse across Africa”.
In a moving article about his family’s struggle with COVID-19, Larry Madowo, a newly
appointed international correspondent for CNN from Kenya, revealed how he had lost his uncle to
the illness and how his heart sank every time he received a call from home, where his grandmother
was on a ventilator.
“Even at 96,” he wrote, “my Kenyan grandmother was among hundreds of millions in the
developing world who was not vaccinated until recently because rich nations have hoarded most of
the available shots.” He noted that even in places like Rwanda, where stringent social distancing and
masking regulations have been enforced, lockdowns and curfews continue to be a fact of life
“because only vaccines provide true protection”.
It is undeniable that Africa faces a tough time ahead and that the continent is, in many ways,
unprepared for what is coming on almost every level. With just more than 1 percent of its
population vaccinated, not enough specialised facilities such as ICU beds or oxygen plants, and with
a higher death rate among the severely ill than the global average, the continent is indeed staring
into the abyss. However, the situation is far from hopeless.
Vaccines are doubtlessly the best protection societies can get, massively reducing chances of
serious illness, hospitalisation and death. But as the experience, even in the rich West, has
demonstrated, they are not a silver bullet. And, without universal vaccination not just in some
regions but across the globe, they will not be replacements for other measures to combat the disease
such as masking and social distancing.
In 1990, Dr James Reason of the University of Manchester introduced the ‘Swiss Cheese Model’
of accident causation. In the model, defences are presented as a series of barriers. Each barrier,
however, is not perfect and has unintended weaknesses or ‘holes’ – hence looks similar to a slice of
Swiss cheese. These holes can sometimes allow an error or hazard, such as a virus, to get through.
However, inserting additional layers of defence (or slices of cheese) into the system decreases the
likelihood that these holes will line up to allow the hazard to reach the individual.
In such modelling, Covid-19 vaccines are just the final slice of cheese, not a replacement for all
the slices that came before, which include public information, testing, contact tracing and isolation as
well as hand washing, social distancing and masking. African countries may not have vaccines, but
many do have the capacity and experience to line up many of the other slices and thus provide a
significant measure of protection to their citizens even as they make efforts to acquire vaccines. They
are not helpless or simply beholden to the goodwill of white saviours.
The West has behaved abominably when it comes to the issue of providing vaccines, hoarding
stocks it does not need for people who do not want them and deliberately denying them to those
who want and need them. Even when they have donated vaccines, as the British did this week, they
have sometimes been stocks so close to expiring that distribution constraints could render them
useless. The director of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong,
has expressed concern that this could lead to a narrative “that vaccines have been donated and they
were not used”.
“The timidness of the Western engagement in terms of furnishing vaccines to the developing
world, has just been appalling,” says Howard French in an interview with the Brookings Institute in
 34

which it is noted that even the billion doses offered by the G7 are a drop in the bucket, given seven
billion of the eight billion people on the planet live in the “developing world”.
Kenyan writer, political analyst, and activist, Nanjala Nyabola, has also noted the “dependency
dynamic” that is being engendered by the West, denying African countries the opportunity to fairly
buy vaccines and the refusal to waive the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual
Property Rights so developed nations could produce their own vaccines.
However, shaming the rich into behaving better has never been a strategy that produces fast
results. It may be better to hold African governments, such as Kenya’s, to account for the failure to
prepare their populations effectively for the fight against the virus. Across the continent, states have
adopted a top-down securitised approach that utilised the police rather than medics as the face of a
brutal pandemic response, alienating many.
In Kenya, till recently, talk of hand hygiene, masking and social distancing has all but disappeared
as the government apparently focused on the search for vaccines. However, just this week, as the Delta
variant threatens to overrun the health system, the government has announced a new set of restrictions,
extending the night-time curfew and banning public gatherings and physical meetings.
Even so, the behaviour of many governments across the continent has left much to be desired.
In western Kenya, the Delta variant is wreaking havoc, helped in part by an ill-advised public
function held by President Uhuru Kenyatta and his erstwhile nemesis Raila Odinga at the start of
June. The veracity of the statistics of infections, hospitalisations and deaths issued by the Ministry of
Health has been questioned, Covid-19 response funds have been looted and the vaccination effort
seemingly held hostage to fights between ‘tenderpreneurs’ for lucrative contracts.
Even in the face of vaccine apartheid, Africa is no longer the ‘hopeless continent’ of the Western
imagination.
(Source: Al Jazeera)

HOW TO VACCINATE THE WHOLE WORLD

Tony Blair (Former British Prime Minster)
While large parts of the globe remain partially vaccinated or unvaccinated, there is every
possibility that we will see the emergence of deadlier strains of COVID-19. The advent of a more
transmissible and vaccine-resistant mutation of the virus could put the global pandemic response
back to square one.
The task of vaccinating the world in 2021 is ambitious but achievable. The Global Health
Security Consortium published a plan in May in partnership with the Wilson Center that sets out a
way this can be achieved.
But securing vaccine supply for those countries that need it is only half the challenge. Without
the correct absorption capacity — in simple terms the infrastructure to get jabs in arms — these
vaccines will go to waste.
Modelling conducted by the GHSC indicates that absorptive capacity across those countries that
need the vaccine most would have to increase from between 5m-6m per day at present to more than
14m by March 2022 if they are to be strategically vaccinated. Between $6bn-$8.5bn in additional
funding will be required. This is not simply about strategic investment — it would also help deliver
equity of access to the vaccine globally. Without urgent action to meet this challenge, the timeline to
vaccinate the world will slip further. Worse still, countless batches of vaccine will go to waste.
The policy changes required can be summarised in terms of four s’s: settings, staffing,
systematisation and strategic communication.
 35

First, in order for countries to be able to fully absorb vaccines we should ensure that the
physical settings needed to administer them are made available, as well as the infrastructure
required to move the vaccines to those locations. The GHSC’s report published this week gives more
detail on how this can be achieved, including learning from best practice in countries such as Israel.
An expanded number of physical vaccination sites requires more staff. This is something that
needs to be prepared for now. Recruitment must extend beyond those administering the jabs to
include the hiring of staff responsible for setting up and running the vaccination sites themselves,
registering and assisting with patients, inputting data, managing equipment and conducting
community outreach.
Meeting this need is likely to involve bringing retired medical staff back on to the frontline,
accelerating the deployment of trainee medical staff and conducting effective and time sensitive
training for volunteers.
A process as complex as vaccinating millions of people will need careful co-ordination. In the
modern world this is only possible through the effective deployment of technology.
Systematisation of all the information involved in the vaccine rollout will provide vital data. It
will allow governments to focus accurately the deployment of vaccines and track progress. In
addition, it will give a clear record of vaccination dates, when second doses and eventually boosters
are needed.
Rwanda has set a clear lead on this, collecting data carefully and using it to focus its rollout
successfully. Other countries in Africa, including Senegal, are also accelerating the deployment of
digital tools to track and plan their ongoing vaccination campaigns as well as to ensure there are
trusted and easy-to-use documents showing proof of vaccination.
As important as these hard infrastructure elements are, they will be useless if people are
unwilling to receive their jab. This is where strategic communications and community engagement
play a vital role. Centrally directed national campaigns are key. These would publish clear and
accessible data on vaccine efficacy, consistent messaging on the importance of vaccines and their
role in the struggle against Covid-19.
A lot of work is clearly needed. How should it be coordinated? I believe that the G20 should
commit to $6bn in financing for health system absorption capacity and commission key global
multilateral health organisations to co-ordinate and centralise funding needs and disbursement.
This would be a big challenge for the G20. But meeting it could not be more vital or urgent.
While we in the west are reopening our economies and societies on the basis of successful vaccine
rollouts, these efforts to live alongside Covid-19 could be undone without matching progress in the
rest of the world.
No single country is safe from the virus until all countries are safe. Efforts are under way to
supply the world with vaccines, but without action on vaccine absorption they risk being for nothing.
 36

CPEC and OBOR

IRAN'S "BELT AND ROAD" ROLE
Taylor Butch
In a landmark visit to Tehran in January 2016, Chinese president Xi Jinping and Iranian
president Hassan Rouhani signed a "comprehensive strategic partnership" that expanded bilateral
ties and trade to US$600 billion over ten years and formally recognized the Belt and Road Initiative
(BRI), launched in September 2013. The initiative expands Beijing's strategic, economic, and political
cooperation via land and sea routes. And while 138 countries have thus far inked nearly two
hundred BRI deals, creating more than 300,000 new jobs and attracting over $110 billion in Chinese
investments, Iran is arguably the most influential Belt and Road nation as it directly shapes the
expansion of China's Digital Silk Road, Silk Road of Innovation, and Green Silk Road initiatives.
How will the intensifying Chinese connection affect Tehran's economic and political standing and its
bargaining power vis-à-vis the incoming US administration, especially with regard to the 2015
nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)?
China's Digital Silk Road
In May 2017, President Xi introduced "a digital silk road of the 21st century" that seeks to
pursue innovation-driven development and intensify cooperation in frontier areas such as digital
economy, artificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and quantum computing, and advance the
development of big data, cloud computing, and smart cities so as to turn them into a digital silk road
of the 21st century.
By then, private Chinese firms and state-owned enterprises (SOE) had transformed a number of
Chinese and foreign localities into "smart cities," hosting internet-driven ecosystems that facilitate
sharing of information to deliver powerful, improved efficiency-based results in public and private
settings. The idea appealed to the Iranian government, which proposed in its sixth 5-year
development plan (2017-21) the integration of "smart city" concepts and a "digital economy" by
installing public Wi-Fi and employing smart buildings, mobile payment, e-commerce, e-health
services, and e-government to streamline efficiency.
The Digital Silk Road will also allow Beijing to shape the current and future use of the new 5G
technology. Two of the world's largest telecommunications companies—Zhongxing
Telecommunications Equipment Corporation and Huawei—currently control an estimated 40
percent of the 5G global marketplace, with the latter being the largest 5G supplier on all continents
apart from North America. Both companies have developed global telecom and infrastructure
partnerships in other countries, including Iran, where 90 percent of the population is connected to
the internet. Such reliance on 5G technology from a single source or nation could impact a nation's
economic and national security.
Innovation Silk Road
Interchangeably linked with the Digital Silk Road is the Innovation Silk Road, a concept that
permits Beijing to enhance technology transfers and innovation sharing across multiple sectors.[9]
For their part, Iranian officials have announced their intention to transform multiple sectors in Iran
by implementing "China's way," with representatives from the two countries hosting events,
participating in scientific and academic exchanges, and stressing the importance of technology
transfer in energy and medical communities. With the Iran National Science Foundation (INSF)
partnering with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) on multiple occasions for scientific
exchanges and workshops, Beijing has, furthermore, sponsored the Green Silk Road Envoys
 37

Program designed to train 1,500 environmental experts from Belt and Road countries over a 3-year
period starting in 2019.
The "Green" Silk Road
While Tehran possesses the world's fourth-most oil reserves and second-most natural gas reserves,
its economy is transitioning to renewable energy power to reduce fossil fuel and water consumption and
air pollution, making Tehran the largest Middle Eastern producer of renewable resources in 2019 at
12,675 megawatts (MW). Under the Rouhani administration (2013-21), the government arguably secured
its renewable energy legacy—committing to a substantial solar power research and development budget
increase and awarding hundreds of domestic renewable energy contracts, which have allowed the
nation to nearly double its installed renewable energy capacity in a decade.
This impressive progress notwithstanding, and despite Iran's huge renewable energy potential,
such a major shift cannot be realized without outside help. To entice foreign investment in
renewable energies, the government passed the Foreign Investment Promotion and Protection Act
(FIPPA), which awards the same privileges to foreign investors as it does to domestic investors.
Taking advantage of this law and aided by the 2005 Iran-China bilateral investment treaty,
Chinese state-owned and private firms have been heavily involved in Iran's renewable energy
market for more than a decade. Top Chinese representatives from state-owned (e.g., SIEG, CGGC,
PowerChina) and private firms (e.g., Zhejiang ECO-WASTE Technology Co, Ltd.) have met with
Iranian counterparts on multiple projects primarily centered on solar power, hydroelectric power,
and biofuel, with the vast majority successfully completed. However, some appear to have only
entered negotiations while other projects were abandoned due to unknown reasons. Aside from
constructing renewable energy power plants in Iran, Chinese firms have also built multiple
manufacturing plants for solar panels and the foundations for next-generation technology sharing,
for example, in floating solar power stations.
Win-Win Financing along Belt and Road
"Finance is the lifeblood of modern economy. Only when the blood circulates smoothly can one
grow," stated Xi Jinping at the opening ceremony of the Belt and Road Forum in 2017. Establishing
strong financial ties and lines of credit with BRI countries has allowed Beijing to advance its global
initiative with speed, efficiency, and most importantly, with positive results. Financing joint-
ventures with Chinese firms via Chinese banks offers low interest loans and the ability for Iranian
companies to complete most financial transactions in a multitude of foreign currencies rather than
US dollars, which are primarily used for oil transactions. This transactional route allows Tehran to
bypass at least some US-imposed sanctions, with banking officials from both countries making
official visits and meeting with banking regulators in recent years to boost financial ties.
These moves have yielded positive results as Tehran has invested billions of capital in infrastructure
and renewable energy projects and has, on at least one occasion, worked to double lines of credit from
Chinese firms' to $50 billion. For its part, the state-owned Development Bank of China has lent at least
$18 billion for construction and production projects in Iran while the state-owned investment firm China
International Trust and Investment Corporation Group has put forth tens-of-billions of dollars for water
management, energy, environment, transportation, and mining in Iran.
Chinese financial institutions, such as Export-Import Bank of China (EXIM), act as the final
means, thus far, to finance BRI projects. As of 2017, EXIM had granted $9 billion in loans to twenty-
six Iranian projects in energy, petrochemical, and other sectors, and more recently financed two
ventures for $1.5 billion apiece, one unnamed project, and the electrification of the Tehran-Mashhad
railway project. China Export and Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure), a state-owned insurance
firm that ensures against an assortment of political and commercial risks along the BRI, is another
active participant in Iran.
 38

Opening lines of credit also assists Iran in achieving major infrastructure development goals.
Starting with electrification of all railways by 2025, Tehran plans to update and extend its railway
network by the end of this decade to a total of 25,000 kilometers—more than double its 2018
length—at a cost of $25 billion. Chinese state-owned enterprises are financing this and other
infrastructure projects (e.g., a $13 billion contract signed in 2011 to supply eight railroad lines at
more than 5,000 km in total length), paying in Chinese currency. Besides transporting domestic
goods and passengers, the ambitious railway expansion connects to neighbouring countries along
the Belt and Road and eventually to other established railway networks—at one end, Europe and, at
the other, Central Asia and China.
Aside from railways, Chinese state-owned entities and private companies are reshaping Iran
from the inside out via key infrastructure projects: high-capacity hospitals totaling nearly 4,000 beds,
metro services, automobile facilities, mining, and highways and roads.
Navigating Sanctions
Of the sanctioned Belt and Road nations, Iran has the highest potential for overall investment
return for China, which is why Beijing has publicly endorsed Tehran's right "to benefit from the
peaceful use of nuclear energy" and has remained committed to the JCPOA despite the US
withdrawal from the deal. Even after the Trump administration had restored sanctions against Iran,
Beijing and Tehran continued to cooperate on a series of nuclear-related projects, many of which
were discussed during President Xi's 2016 visit to the Middle East, including the construction of two
1000 megawatt nuclear power plant contracts, a number of 100 megawatt nuclear plants, and an
Arak heavy water reactor, in addition to scientific research in the nuclear field. At the same time, in
an attempt to avert US retaliation, Beijing seems to have slow-walked some nuclear projects (e.g., a
joint-redesign of the Arak heavy water reactor by China National Nuclear Corporation and a British
company) and to imply the possible halt to some oil-related transactions.
This, however, was the exception to the rule. By way of ameliorating the impact of the
sanctions, Beijing has funded the establishment of research and development parks in Iran and the
two countries have signed multiple memoranda of understanding to boost science and energy,
nanotechnology, and medicine and health cooperation, all of which benefit from quantum
computing, big data, and 5G technology.
"It's hard to say that sanctions have no impact on our country, but it is notable that during hard
times, we would know who the true friends are," stated Iran's vice-president for scientific and
technological affairs Sorena Sattari.
Beijing was also encouraged in its continued economic interactions with Tehran by the attempts
of the JCPOA's European signatories (France, Germany, and Britain) to bypass sanctions by
establishing the Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) to enable "legitimate
European trade with Iran." Chinese officials have hinted at joining INSTEX, which has subsequently
expanded by at least six nations—an idea that its members have not dismissed.
Paradoxically, Beijing's sanctions flouting exacerbated Tehran's preexisting dilemma regarding
the nationality of workers on BRI projects. While Iranian officials encourage foreign and domestic
companies to use local workers and materials, Beijing favours employing Chinese workers when
operating in foreign countries. In addition, Chinese parts and equipment are often cheaper, forcing
many Iranian companies to make hard choices that impact quality, cost, and project management
about whether to construct domestic-made parts or import Chinese parts.
These employment and procurement problems were already evident before the restoration of
sanctions as Iranian firms were pressured to ensure that a majority of the workforce be local when
collabourating with Chinese firms. These problems intensified greatly as the Trump administration's
"maximum pressure" campaign dealt a severe blow to the Iranian economy, sending unemployment
 39

skyrocketing above 17 percent (above 40 percent among college graduates) and forcing the Iranian
government to walk the tightrope between keeping native Iranian jobs and preventing Chinese
companies from succumbing to US pressure and slowing, or even suspending, their operations in
Iran. The situation worsened as the COVID-19 pandemic afflicted Iranian society and economy, with
over 50,000 officially reported deaths by the end of 2020 and some 850,000 people losing their jobs.
Conclusion
With $26.5 billion worth of investments since 2005, China has been Iran's largest trade partner
for over a decade, and the relationship is likely to strengthen as Tehran is eager to become the Belt
and Road Initiative's flagship Middle Eastern partner. Yet, Tehran's growing regional aggressiveness
over the past few years has clearly been unpalatable to Beijing—both because of China's position as
the world's foremost oil and natural gas importer and its burgeoning economic relations with other
states at loggerheads with Iran (e.g., $8.6 billion investments in Israel since 2015). But Beijing has not
used its economic leverage to rein in Tehran. Quite the reverse in fact. As its relations with the
Trump administration deteriorated, Beijing not only sustained its economic relations with Tehran in
the face of Washington's renewed sanctions (with some notional pro forma concessions), but in June
2020, finalized a far-reaching 25-year economic and security partnership that would give China a
vastly expanded presence in numerous segments of the Iranian economy—from energy to
telecommunications to transportation and ports—in return for regular, and reportedly heavily
discounted, oil supply for the entire period.
This symbiotic relationship echoes the mutually beneficial interdependence between the
superpowers and their Middle Eastern allies during the Cold War. Those relationships favoured
each partner in accordance with the vicissitudes in regional and global affairs but were, on the
whole, kinder to the smaller states that skillfully exploited the superpowers' opposing interests to
improve their own position. Even if a marked improvement in US-Chinese relations under the Biden
administration were to take place, this may not dissuade Tehran from its drive for regional
hegemony and nuclear weapons given the centrality of these goals for the Islamic regime and the
ongoing US-Chinese global competition that will continue to constrain Washington's leverage vis-à-
vis Tehran.
(Source: Middle East Quarterly)

WHY THE CPEC SHOULD BE WELL PROTECTED

M. Alam Brohi (Former Ambassador)
The challenges and opportunities for a nation go hand in hand. The success of a nation lies in
successfully exploiting its advantageous geo-strategic position to face the challenges and cash in on
the opportunities coming its way.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) provides many opportunities for Pakistan and
confronts it with daunting challenges too, putting to a hard test its political will for good governance
and diplomacy. While Pakistan's leaders are bound to address the aspirations of its federating units
for equitable distribution of projects under CPEC, they have to foil attempts of hostile countries to
sabotage the project.
The importance of the CPEC is underscored by economic and trade connectivity with Central
Asia and beyond. The Central Asian region is rich in hydrocarbon resources, minerals and
agricultural products, particularly cotton. The sprawling region bordering China, Afghanistan, Iran
and Russia is landlocked and dependent on the seaports of China, Russia, Iran and Turkey, and
potentially Pakistan.
 40

Chinese and the Russian seaports are too distant to be profitable for these states. The Russian
deep seaport of Vladivostok is at a distance of 9,500 kilometers. Though relatively a short distance
away, the route to the Black Sea ports of Turkey passes through the conflict-ridden Caucasian states.
The Iranian seaport of Bandar Abbas is also located at a distance of almost 5,000 kilometers, while
the Gwadar seaport is only 2,700 kilometers from Tajikistan.
This equally applies to the existing and potential oil and gas pipelines to connect with South
and Southeast Asia and the world market. Apart from the Soviet-era pipelines carrying oil and gas
from Central Asia to Europe, Russia has sponsored the International South-West Transport Corridor
along with Iran and some 20 Eurasian countries and India with routes and railways from Iran to the
Russian Caspian port of Astra Khan.
The second option with Central Asian Republics is to lay oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian
Sea to the Black Seaports of Turkey. The first pipeline on this route was operationalized in 2006. The
third option for the outflow of their oil and gas is to use the route to Afghanistan-Iran-Pakistan to
connect with the world market.
The Asian Development Bank estimated in 2006 that after the operationalization of this
economic connectivity within greater Asia, the trade between Central Asian states and Afghanistan
would increase to $12 billion with the creation of some 750,000 jobs and the GDP of China's Xinjiang
Uygur Autonomous Region would increase by 3 percent. The Eurasian Bridge being constructed by
China beyond its Xinjiang to open direct trade links with Europe by overland transportation via
Central Asia would considerably reduce the transit and freight charges of containers.
The road transportation of containers from China transiting through the Xinjiang region and
Central Asia to Rotterdam would reduce transit time to 11 days from the present 20-40 days taken
by the seaborne consignments with a considerable decrease in freight charges. This will give a
tremendous boost to trade between Asia and Europe.
Strategically, Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan enjoy vitally important positions compared to the
other contenders in the new economic great game being played out in the Central Asian region.
Pakistan is well placed to benefit enormously from the economic and commercial connectivity with
the Central Asian region and the overland trade with Europe due to its connectivity with Xinjiang
through the CPEC and Gwadar deep seaport.
The short transit period, short distance and reduced freight are important factors in promoting
trade and transportation of commercial goods. The Gwadar port will potentially attract the bulk of
the cargo transiting through Xinjiang to Europe.
The economic great game in the Central Asian region contextualizes the vital importance of the
CPEC as a game changer for both China and Pakistan. It would link Pakistan directly with China
and the Central Asian states and Europe giving a fillip to its geo-economics.
China has been relentlessly following some well-defined foreign policy objectives in the Asian
region through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to help ensure political stability and security in
the region and create an alternative transport corridor to Europe through Central Asia.
No doubt, the opportunities potentially coming our way for trade and economic connectivity
are enormous but the foreign policy challenges are formidable. We have to review our bilateral
relations with Iran and Afghanistan.
Peace and stability in Afghanistan are vitally important for Pakistan. We should fully support
international and regional endeavors to create inclusive governing structures in that country.
We also have to neutralize the hostilities to the CPEC from within and without. The US and
India are opposing the project. The security of the routes would be the main factor for Gwadar to
flourish. The main challenges at hand are to rehabilitate our economy; to get out of the vicious
 41

quagmire of debts, corruption and economic mismanagement and to overcome ideological,

parochial and ethnic divides within the society.
(Source: CGTN)

CPEC & CHANGE IN REGIONAL POWER CHESSBOARD

Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan (Center for Global & Strategic Studies)
WITH the drastic change in the regional geopolitical and geostrategic scenarios, especially in
Afghanistan, there have been lots of anti-CPEC articles published in the Times of India, Hindustan
Times and The Diplomat in recent times indicating Taliban capturing Kabul as a great setback to
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Even the US and the EU, as usual, propagated spill-over geopolitical and geostrategic
repercussions of Afghanistan on the development of CPEC which they termed stalled and derailed.
It is all their wishes and whims making castles in the air and do not have any concrete
foundations.
The most recent published book of Mr. Zahid Hussain “No Win War” also showed serious
concerns about imminent fall and rise of the Taliban which it considered a “security threat” to Chinese
investment and operations in Pakistan because TTP has been targeting Chinese interests and projects
of CPEC in the country. Apparently, his all concerns are baseless and do not have any substance.
Furthermore Muhammad Akbar Notezai’s article entitled “Chaos in Afghanistan Threatens
CPEC” published on July 19, 2021 in The Diplomat intentionally raised serious concerns about the
CPEC which is the flagship project of massive Belt and Road Initiative aiming to build
infrastructure, expand trade links and deepen ties across Eurasia and Africa.
It seems that the writer does not have even basic knowledge of CPEC and BRI and he derived his
conclusion on the basis of law and order deterioration in Afghanistan and intentionally correlated it
with CPEC. It is even against the basic logic of economic derivatives and rational thinking.
Undoubtedly, China has strategic interest in Afghanistan that is why it has been investing in its
infrastructure development and mining projects.
In this direction, Beijing has been advising Pakistan to open border points with Afghanistan in
order to increase trade with an eye toward CPEC since 2015.
As a result, Pakistan announced a plan to establish 12 border markets with Afghanistan, versus
just six border markets with Iran during 2020.
Time and again, China, Pakistan and Afghanistan revealed an inclination to extend the CPEC
project into Afghanistan which could help boost Afghanistan’s exports.
In the near past even the Taliban showed keen interest to welcome China’s assistance in
reconstruction and development of their country with the departure of US troops, calling China a
friend of Afghanistan.
Now with the peaceful fall of Kabul and seemingly smooth power transition, chances are very
bright for CPEC to enter into the soil of Afghanistan for massive reconstruction and development
through the potential extension of CPEC.
In this connection, the Foreign Ministers of China, Pakistan and Afghanistan held a dialogue in
September 2019.
They agreed then that the three countries should increase mutual connectivity and push the
extension of CPEC to Afghanistan.
 42

It seems that the CPEC expected extended operations into Afghanistan, would assist China to
help build or improve infrastructure between Afghanistan and Pakistan to facilitate their economic
exchange.
In this regard, the highway between Peshawar and Kabul may be again qualified for greater
transport connecting hub.
China can help build bypasses to that road as well as expanding relevant customs to make the
connectivity between Afghanistan and Pakistan smoother.
After its completion, goods manufactured in Afghanistan will manage to find their way into the
abundant markets in Pakistan which is important for its economy and growth of exports.
In this context, Chinese companies could help invest in energy infrastructure in Afghanistan
such as building electricity plants and water irrigation channels.
It could be enhanced to a further stage such as the construction of processing areas and industry
parks in the two countries’ neighbouring areas, where overseas capital can be directed in.
Therefore, the CPEC has an apparent positive spill-over effect in the reconstruction process of
Afghanistan.
Regional connectivity pledged by BRI will facilitate the flow of goods and people via CPEC’s
key transportation routes, and it is not hard to see that Afghanistan’s post-war reconstruction,
industrial and digital build-up and economic growth could benefit.
Moreover, CPEC’s industrial parks, many invested by Chinese investors, could provide the
goods and products needed by the reconstruction process in Afghanistan.
It would create new jobs for locals. Hopefully, it would be conducive to the country’s security
and its march to peace.
Afghanistan has become the first among several landlocked Central Asian States to benefit from
using the Gwadar Port in Pakistan in transhipment trade.
In 2020, the country imported 43,000 tons of fertilizers via the port, contributing to its
agricultural development.
In May 2021, Uzbekistan also sent a high-level delegation to the Gwadar Port to look for
logistics opportunities that might help it export its cotton.
So the Gwadar Port will definitely play a major role in the reconstruction of war-torn
Afghanistan.
The Chinese spokesperson Zhao Lijian said that the BRI and CPEC are open and inclusive
international economic cooperation initiatives that are dedicated to improve connectivity and
achieve common development.
He termed CPEC, as pioneering projects of the Belt and Road Initiative, has made important
and major progress in infrastructure, energy, ports and industrial parks.
Zhao Lijian also said that China would like to work with Pakistan for the high-quality
development of the CPEC and extend it to regional countries, improve people’s well-being and play
a bigger role in regional connectivity and economic integration.
The two sides are having consultations through diplomatic channels, he said. “We notice that
Afghanistan is importing and exporting goods through Gwadar and Karachi ports.
High-speed highways are also being extended to Afghanistan.” Prospects are very high that
China will make an exclusive entry into post-US Afghanistan with its BRI.
Taliban are growing more intensively engaged with China on an extension of the CPEC which
involves the construction of highways, railways and energy pipelines between Pakistan and China
to Afghanistan, reported international media.
 43

According to another diplomatic source Beijing and Kabul are seriously considering
constructing a China-backed major road between Afghanistan and Pakistan’s north-western city of
Peshawar, which is already linked with the CPEC route.
In this regard, there is a discussion on a Peshawar-Kabul motorway between the authorities in
Kabul and Beijing and linking Kabul with Peshawar by road means Afghanistan’s formal joining of
CPEC.
Under its BRI, China wants to connect Asia with Africa and Europe through land and maritime
networks spanning some 60 countries.
By virtue of its location, Afghanistan can provide China with a strategic base to spread its
influence across the world, ideally located to serve as a trade hub connecting the Middle East,
Central Asia and Europe.
Being a prominent regional expert of CPEC & BRI, I suggest that China and Pakistan should
now focus on the reconstruction of Afghanistan through the imminent extension of CPEC.
Even the ML-I mega railway project may be extended to Kabul which would be game and fate
changer.
In this regard, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan’s proposed trans-regional railway project
of “Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar” would be further consolidated and accordingly
connected.
To conclude with the peaceful fall of Kabul the chessboard of power politics should now
promote spirit of development instead of destruction, mutual cooperation instead of conspiracies
and spells of cooperation instead of contradictions because CPEC stands for regional peace and
stability and economic prosperity is a must for greater regional connectivity.
(Source: Pakistan Observer)

STRATEGIC SIGNIFICANCE OF GWADAR PORT IN THE REGION

MD Pathik Hasan (Bangladeshi Journalist)
Pakistan’s Gwadar port under the China’s project ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ is going to be one of
the top trade hubs in the region, linking the West Asian nations to (Commonwealth of Independent
States) CIS countries. ‘China Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) has been formed around Gwadar.
Although the seaport of Gwadar is in Balochistan in Pakistan, its root is deep in the whole region.
A deep link is going to be formed between Asia and Europe centred on Gwadar Port and CPEC.
The huge investment of 60 billion US dollars has taken Pakistan-China relations to the next
level. Not only that, CPEC will open a new horizon in Pakistan’s trade and commerce.
CPEC under ‘Belt and Road initiative, China’s multifaceted project will not only connect
China’s landlocked province of Xinjiang, but also take Pakistan’s trade to a new level by taking
advantage of Pakistan’s unused coastline.
This multifaceted project includes the construction of the deep seaport of Gwadar in southern
Pakistan and the construction of a wide road from Karachi to Kashgar in China.
Karachi, a busy commercial city of more than two core people, has two huge seaports through
which all trade and commerce of Pakistan is conducted. Karachi is the main centre of trade and
commerce in Pakistan.
The seaport of Gwadar in Pakistan’s Balochistan and the Pakistan-China Economic Corridor
(CPEC) built around it will boost up Pakistan’s economic prosperity. This corridor will significantly
reduce the distance between Pakistan and China.
 44

The multi-purpose corridor project will establish Pakistan’s connectivity with the landlocked
province of Xinjiang. Besides, Pakistan’s unused coastline will be utilized.
The CPEC will connect China’s Kashgar with Pakistan’s commercial cities of Karachi and
Gwadar. Karachi, the world’s fifth largest city, already has two ports that cater to all trade and
commerce needs in Pakistan.
Balochistan, the largest province by area and rich in mineral resources, is a gem of Pakistan.
There are immense treasures hidden under the soil of the Rocky Mountains of Balochistan.
China’s huge investment in Gwadar is like a pearl for Balochistan.
The seaport of Gwadar, located on the Strait of Hormuz in the United Arab Emirates, which
connects the Caspian region, is a gateway to the development of the Caspian region. The port of
Gwadar will serve as a hub for future trade and commerce.
In case of any threat to the port of Malacca, the port of Gwadar will be the only option for China
to enter the Indian Ocean and the Middle East and West Asia.
About 60% of China’s energy demand comes from the Persian Gulf. Gwadar will play a huge
role in China’s energy imports. In 1971, India attacked the port of Karachi twice.
The port of Gwadar will act as radar for Indian deep operations in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf
of Aden under the Indian Navy.
Surrounded by Central Asia, South Asia, Iran and Afghanistan, the Caspian Sea, known as the
energy-rich ‘Lake’, has always been known as an area of peace due to its economic and geographical
importance. China has already announced its intention to invest in the Chabahar rail link project.
China’s contribution to the development of Chabahar port would be a great opportunity for this
port to further establish itself as a trade hub in the region since China is currently one of the world’s
most advanced countries in terms of maritime and port industries.
Gwadar is located at a very important place at the junction of the Energy Corridor in the Gulf
States and Central Asia. Gwadar plays an important role in fuel transportation in landlocked Central
Asia and the western provinces of China.
In addition to its economic and business importance, the port of Gwadar is expected to create at
least two million jobs in Pakistan, analysts say.
The first part of this huge port was completed in 2006. PSA International Company of
Singapore operated the first part of the port from 2007 to 2012.
In 2013, the port’s operations were transferred to China Overseas Holding Company, a Chinese
state-owned company. The second phase of work is underway. The second phase of the plan
includes work to increase the scope and efficiency of the service.
The port of Gwadar has emerged as one of the largest and most important ports in the world
under the CPEC.
Located on the southern coast of Pakistan, the seaport of Gwadar is surrounded by the Harjum
Strait, the important region of South Asia, the oil-rich Arab Peninsula, and the abundant natural
resources of Central Asia.
The key to the larger international political game has now shifted from Central Asia to the
West.
Moreover, the hidden resources in Balochistan, gas, coal, gold, as well as Pakistan’s steel-hard
friendship with China (Iron Brother) will be a source of frustration for India and Israel, as the
agenda of these two anti-Muslim states destabilizes Pakistan.
 45

Balochistan is a paradise for Pakistan not only for its breathtaking natural beauty but also for its
vast natural resources. Balochistan has a lot of resources to enrich not only Gwadar but also
Pakistan.
The discovery of gold in Chaghai will soon make Pakistan one of the richest countries in the
world. Pakistan has been using Sui gas for the last 60 years. The tourist attractions from Jiraat to Jhal
and from Bolan to Hingal are special.
These sights will attract tourists from all over the world. 600 million tons of iron and 500 million
tons of copper were found in Chaghai alone. Concerned quarters are of the opinion that when the
Gwadar port is fully operationalized, it will provide employment to millions of people.
According to Pakistani media, the central government of Pakistan has adopted a new plan for
the development of Balochistan.
According to the new plan, once the port development of Gwadar, including Balochistan, is
completed, Gwadar will be the most developed and beautiful city in Pakistan, which will probably
outperform Singapore.
Due to Pakistan’s geographical location and geographical strategy, it would take Pakistan to a
higher level of geo-economic development.
Gwadar port makes Pakistan a more strategically significant state in the region. It is the clear-
cut example of ‘Shifting of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy towards geo-economic from geo-strategy.
However, States of Asia, Europe and Africa will benefit from this Chinese project. It is going to
be a communication link between Asia and Europe.
(Source: Eurasia Review)

PAKISTAN SHIFTS GEARS ON CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD

FM Shakil (Political Analyst)
Pakistan is changing direction on China’s Belt and Road in an apparent bid to assuage Beijing
amid rising security risks to its in-country nationals, interests and investments.
In a surprise and still unexplained move, Prime Minister Imran Khan announced last week that
businessman Khalid Mansoor would be the nation’s new point person for the Beijing-backed US$62
billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) infrastructure-building program.
The announcement said Lieutenant General Asim Saleem Bajwa will step down as head of the
China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Authority (CPECA), ending the military’s de facto two-year
control over a scheme that has been riddled with delays and wobbled by militant attacks.
Khan’s statement came soon after the July 16 bomb attack on a bus that killed nine Chinese
nationals including engineers working on a CPEC-related hydropower dam project. Pakistani
officials have since indicated it was the dirty work of the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM),
a Uighur militant group bent on targeting Chinese interests both in Xinjiang and abroad, and other
militant groups.
The lethal attack came at an especially delicate, if not strategic, juncture as China tries to lobby
Afghanistan’s Taliban into clamping down on its aligned militant and terror groups in quid pro quo
exchange for infrastructure investments that would link the country with the CPEC and further afield
into Central Asia if and when, as widely anticipated, the militant group seizes power in Kabul.
It’s not immediately clear if Bajwa’s removal as the CPECA’s chairperson only halfway through
his four-year appointment was directly related to the security lapse. Prime Minister’s Khan
announcement fell short of stating any specific reason for his removal, though the military’s
 46

outsized role in steering the scheme was aimed in large part to guarantee project security in a region
riddled with militants.
Significantly, too, the announcement did not name a replacement for the CPECA’s top post.
Instead, Mansoor, a corporate executive who has worked in top positions with a CPEC-related
China-Pakistan coal-mining syndicate in Sindh province and who has a history of liaising with
Chinese companies and financial institutions, was named as Special Assistant to the Prime Minister
on CPEC affairs.
The role has no mandatory power under Pakistan’s constitution and may not attend
government cabinet meetings without special invitations. Significantly, Mansoor was not and will
not clearly in future be appointed as the CPECA’s chairman, a statutory position under the CPEC
Authority Act of 2019 that now sits vacant.
Bajwa’s removal could have been influenced by recent scandals. In August 2020, journalist
Ahmed Noorani published an investigative story online claiming that Bajwa had abused his military
authority to establish various offshore businesses in the name of his wife, sons and brothers –
alleged sprawling commercial interests that became known as his “pizza empire” in recognition of
his investments in the US.
A few weeks after the bombshell story was published, Bajwa rubbished the allegations and
claimed to possess all the relevant documents about his family’s assets and that their interests were
all above board.
But opposition parties remained adamant in their calls for a judicial inquiry into his family’s
offshore assets and his resignation as Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on Information and
Broadcasting, which he finally did in October 2020. However, Bajwa retained his position as CPECA
chairperson despite unanswered questions about his personal wealth, which some suspect was
derived in part from the CPEC.
Now, some observers believe Bajwa was likely removed at Beijing’s behest. They note China
had already recently expressed concerns about the slow execution of CPEC projects in recent
months. The bus attack, they suggest, was likely the straw that broke the camel’s back, as the top
brass general couldn’t even guarantee the security of CPEC projects from rising militant attacks.
Significantly, Bajwa’s removal came just days after Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Makhdoom
Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) chief Lieutenant-General Faiz Hameed
flew to Beijing to reassure their Chinese hosts that the military would provide full security cover to
CPEC and non-CPEC projects.
Still, there is widespread speculation on social media that Khan’s decision not to immediately
appoint a new CPECA head is a signal that Beijing intends to take more control over CPEC projects
and related personnel decisions. They believe Mansoor’s appointment as special assistant to the
premier was likely requested by Beijing.
Either way, the CPEC’s power dynamics are shifting.
Last year’s promulgation of the CPEC Authority Act (2020), aimed to expedite the scheme’s
many stalled projects, gave the newly established CPECA near-absolute power to plan, facilitate,
coordinate, enforce, monitor and evaluate CPEC-related activities. That gave Bajwa unrivalled
authority over the multi-billion dollar scheme, allowing him to sideline parliament and the planning
ministry in the process.
Ahsan Iqbal, a former federal minister for planning and secretary-general of the Pakistan
Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, told Asia Times that he had earlier taken strong exception to
the formation of the CPECA and its carte blanche authority during a Standing Committee on
Planning, Development and Special Initiatives meeting.
 47

“It requires a techno-political person with the full backing of the parliament to efficiently run
CPEC affairs. During my tenure as planning minister, more than $29 billion investment was
channelized by the planning ministry without any authority or a superfluous overhead structure.
The same model, which worked successfully in the past, should have continued,” Ahsan said.
He claims that Khan’s government undermined the momentum and initiative of line ministries
by imposing an unnecessary command structure that ultimately complicated the CPEC’s
implementation. The CPEC is now moving at a snail’s pace due to the Covid-19 pandemic,
administrative red tape and a deteriorating security situation, witnessed most recently in last
month’s bomb attack.
The CPEC has also been slowed by Islamabad’s now twice-made request to Beijing for debt
relief on loans and take-or-pay contracts coming due. To date, China has declined to engage in any
debt rescheduling discussions, according to local sources familiar with the situation.
The CPEC’s official website shows that over a dozen energy, communication and road projects
have recently missed their completion deadlines. Five CPEC power projects with a cumulative
generation capacity of 3,600 megawatts have not started commercial operation by the prescribed
deadlines.
These include the 884MW Suki Kinari hydropower project, the 720MW Karot hydropower
project, the 330MW Thar Block-II, the 330MW Thal Nova Thar Block-II and 1,320 MW Thar Block-I.
Similarly, a $6.8 billion railway project designed to connect the cities of Peshawar and Karachi
has not been finalized due to inordinate delays in the crucial 10th meeting of the Joint Cooperation
Committee (JCC) of the CPEC. The railway-revamping project will thus most likely remain in limbo
throughout 2021.
The CPEC was first launched in 2015 as a part of Beijing’s ambitious BRI designed to connect
China’s strategic northwestern Xinjiang province to Pakistan’s southern Gwadar port through a
network of roads, railways and pipelines to transport cargo, oil and gas from the Middle East
onward to Central Asia via Pakistan.
It has taken on greater strategic importance in recent months as Beijing seeks to leverage the
project to make strategic inroads and mitigate militants risks in Afghanistan that are now clearly
rising as the country edges towards full-scale civil war.

THE RISE OF CHINA

Muhammad Abdul Basit (Political Analyst)
Napoleon Bonaparte once noted, “China is a sleeping giant. Let her sleep, for when she wakes
up, the world will shake”. His prophecy has seemingly come true. The dragon is waking up.
The rise of China is important to understand contemporary international politics. How it will be
handled by the US will define the global politics of the 21st century.
The rise of China threatens the hegemony of the United States. The unipolar moment is
arguably ending, and the era of bipolarity could be in the pipeline. Scholars of international relations
differ on which system is stable. The hegemonic stability theory argues that a single hegemon in the
world can help keep the world stable. Others argue that a bipolar system can keep the world
relatively peaceful as there is somewhat a balance of military power, and no single great power is
able to coercively dominate other states.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the US came forward as the single hegemon.
Now, China has become a peer competitor. The rise of a new power challenges the hegemony of the
established power. As China expands its influence, the US is committed to contain it. Thucydides, an
 48

ancient Greek historian, noted that when there is an established power and another is rising up, the
conflict between them is inevitable. Graham Allison coined the term Thucydides Trap to explain this
phenomenon. He wrote: “In fact, in 12 of 16 cases over the last 500 years in which there was a rapid
shift in the relative power of a rising nation that threatened to displace a ruling state, the result was
war.” Although the two powers did not collide directly, they did indulge in a series of proxy wars
that affected them and the whole world in a considerable way.
Will the rise of China revive the Thucydides Trap? Many scholars and strategists such as Henry
Kissinger, John Mearsheimer and Graham Allison himself think so. However, some other scholars
such as Joseph Nye argue that the two states will be able to escape the Thucydides Trap.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is an ambitious project which is aimed to connect many
countries in economic ties. It connects Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime routes.
Underdeveloped countries are a major part of this project. The multi-trillion-dollar project is helping
China become economically strong as well as the countries in which China is making the
investments. However, there is huge scepticism that China might use these economic investments as
a political tool in the near future. China is increasing its sphere of influence with the BRI.
The project can be seen as a positive-sum game in which China and other countries benefit
mutually as they all will increase their trade capabilities as well as politico-economic integration that
leads to development and stability. However, it can also be seen as a hawkish Chinese strategy that
would make it a dominant player in the world which would challenge the existing global order.
China is following the model of stability through economic growth as cooperation between the
states, owing to the economic interests, leads to stable and amicable relations. A peaceful rise of
China can be an opportunity to show its ability to be a responsible power in politico-economic
global leadership. For the region, a rising China can be an opportunity to have a profitable ally that
can help the region become stable and developed.
On the other hand, a rising China can be a dominating and challenging foe, especially for
countries allied with the US, that can turn the region hostile. For instance, India would look at
Beijing's investments and interests in South Asian states with wary eyes.
The western part of China is not as developed as the eastern part. For China, the BRI is also an
opportunity to develop its western provinces. It can also help China boost its soft power in the
world. Chinese investments in economically underdeveloped countries can be a win-win for both
parties as interdependence can take the driving seat when observed through a liberal lens.
On the other hand, it might also sound like a mighty ‘debt-trap diplomacy’ when observed
through a realist lens as it can even interfere with the sovereignty of some states where policy
dictations are also feared. For example, the case of Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port.
While China would consider the BRI as a part of globalization, the US would perceive it as a
Chinese design to expand its influence, for example creating a String of Pearls in the Indian ocean.
This would compel the US to try to contain Chinese naval power by building greater ties with India
and other allies as well as spending more resources.
Although the BRI is a Sino-centric agenda creating a dependent relationship between China and
other states, member states of the project are finding it advantageous to remain a part of it for their
own good. The case of Malaysia, another member state, suggests otherwise. In 2018, Malaysia
suspended some deals with China when Mahathir Mohamad became Prime Minister, but restarted
after negotiations and amendments. This proves that member countries are finding it beneficial to
remain a part of the BRI while pursuing their foreign policies. It means that they are considering it
an absolute gain for everyone, rather than a relative gain for only China at their expense.
The recent G-7’s 40 trillion-dollar plan named ‘Build Back Better World’ is a counter-project to
the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. The geopolitical contest between the great powers is starting,
 49

which may lead to a new-cold war really soon. When the elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.
The underdeveloped world might become a victim of the great power rivalry under the guise of
development.
(Source: The News)

CAN THE G7’S BUILD BACK BETTER WORLD COMPETE WITH

CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE?
Following the expansion of Chinese-led projects in many emerging markets over the past
decade, the G7 has unveiled its own initiative to support global infrastructure development, dubbed
Build Back Better World (B3W).
Announced at a G7 meeting in June, the B3W will focus on four main areas: climate, health,
digital technology and gender. Its overarching goal is to catalyze hundreds of billions of dollars of
infrastructure development in low- and middle-income countries.
Beyond this outline, little information has been released about how the B3W initiative will
operate in practice. However, it is clear that it responds to two broad, interconnected aims.
On the one hand, the B3W will constitute “a values-driven, high-standard, and transparent
infrastructure partnership”, according to a fact sheet put out by the US government. It seeks to help
narrow the more than $40trn infrastructure gap in the developing world, which has been
exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
On the other hand, the B3W will serve as a counterweight to China’s flagship Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI), with the fact sheet highlighting that it will be a means of “strategic competition
with China”.
Launched in 2013 and initially intended to revive ancient Silk Road trade routes between
Eurasia and China, the BRI grew to become a far-reaching plan for transnational infrastructure
development, linking countries and continents through land and sea corridors and industrial
clusters.
The BRI caused consternation among G7 countries from the moment of its inception. This was
due in part to the fact that it was widely seen as a way to expand Chinese geopolitical influence.
For example, in December 2017 Sri Lanka formally ceded 70% control of Hambantota Port to a
Chinese state-owned firm on a 99-year lease after the government was unable to service Chinese
loans used to build the $1.3bn strategic gateway on the Indian Ocean.
Concerns have also been raised over the lack of transparency in terms of lending,
environmental and social impacts, and corruption.
However, some of these apprehensions have been eased by recent developments. As OBG has
covered previously, since the COVID-19 pandemic the BRI has increasingly moved away from big-
ticket infrastructure projects, with China placing a greater focus on sustainable, digital and health-
related aspects — the so-called green, digital and health silk roads.
This pivot has meant that the countries participating in the BRI are receiving fewer financial
resources: from a peak of more than $125bn in total spending in 2015, China spent around $47bn on
BRI projects last year.
China’s shift away from infrastructure projects has left a gap, which the B3W is aiming to fill. A
key aspect of the B3W is the mobilization of private sector capital through the expansion of existing
development finance tools.
 50

This reflects an awareness that what the US administration calls “status quo funding and
financing approaches” are insufficient to close the vast infrastructure gap which continues to stymie
development in emerging economies around the world.
According to the Global Infrastructure Hub, a G20 initiative, the world is facing a $400bn gap in
infrastructure investment this year, a figure that could cumulatively grow to $15trn by 2040 if
current rates of spending continue.
Another key pillar of B3W is sustainability, a term that has become a watchword globally in
light of COVID-19 and escalating ecological disasters.
In this respect, the B3W’s aims dovetail with growing appetite among private sector investors
for green projects — evidenced by the record $269.5bn in green bond issuance last year, according to
the Climate Bonds Initiative, a figure which some expect to double in 2021.
Among other factors, this would suggest that the B3W is well placed to capitalize on investment
trends.
Many emerging economies are in urgent need of funds to drive their COVID-19 recoveries, and
are waiting expectantly for further details of how the initiative will operate.
However, while the principles enshrined in recent announcements are certainly encouraging,
more details will need to emerge promptly in order to demonstrate that the B3W is more than a
memorable acronym.
(Source: Saudi Gazette)

THE PURSUIT OF ‘WIN-WINS’ ALONG THE BELT AND ROAD

Robert Swaine (Project Officer for Saferworld's China Programme)
On 23 June 2021, the week after the G7 declared its 'green alternative' to China’s Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) – a global platform at the heart of China’s international development co-operation –
China held a high-level meeting on Belt and Road Cooperation in the Asia Pacific Region to initiate
the ‘Partnership for Green Development’. At the event, China’s President Xi Jinping emphasised
how Chinese investment as part of the BRI will continue to “work towards the goals of high
standards, sustainability, and working for the benefit of the people”. On infrastructure development
in particular, the Partnership for Green Development proposes to ’strengthen projects’ climate and
environmental risk assessment, drawing on internationally recognised standards and best practices,
as well as encourage companies to assume social responsibilities and protect the local environment’.
Yet, while the rhetoric at the highest levels seems to be moving in the right direction, the reality of
Chinese investments - and there are a vast number around the globe including in countries affected
by conflict - often falls short of the aspiration.
Taking stock
Global market analysts and commentators, including those associated with the World Economic
Forum, regularly urge China to introduce binding measures to strengthen social responsibility as
existing voluntary guidelines are not proving strong enough to enforce responsible investment
overseas. This is important, as there are risks that BRI projects can inadvertently become a source of
insecurity and violence and Chinese companies responsible for project delivery, especially in
conflict-affected countries where access to resources may be contested, need the support of
surrounding communities as well as the national government and local authorities to minimise any
risk of exacerbating or creating tensions. Ensuring that BRI project plans and delivery partners
operate to the highest standards, in line with the UN sustainable development goals and the latest
environmental, social and governance guidance, is a crucial first step.
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However, as we explore in a new Saferworld report, while many local people acknowledge the
potential economic benefits that BRI investment can bring with it, when specific infrastructure
projects are announced, investors often find that they lack widespread public support. Support
further diminishes when there is a perception – true or not – that BRI projects negatively impact the
lives of people and communities. For example, in Kyrgyzstan we heard how Chinese investors have
contended with high-profile controversies, including corrupt practices. The result has been
widespread public dissatisfaction and mistrust – not just towards investments but towards China’s
influence in the country more broadly. Benefits felt by some communities in terms of jobs and
training have been offset by those who feel left out and by the steady stream of scandals and
grievances over land, the environment and labour practices.
Meanwhile, our research in Myanmar shows that concerns over Chinese influence and poor
business practice had tarnished public trust long before the events of 1 February 2021, when the
armed forces seized power. Since then, anti-Chinese sentiment across the country fuelled by the
perception that China approved the military takeover, has led to attacks on Chinese investments. If
Chinese investors attempt to move ahead with BRI projects under the current conditions, their
investments will face even higher risks, as further engagement between the Chinese business
community and the military-led State Administrative Council will inevitably fuel tensions, leading
to more violence.
In Uganda, we heard how the BRI has brought essential new infrastructure through projects
such as the Karuma hydropower dam, as well as employment and training opportunities for
Ugandans. However, community grievances associated with BRI projects have come about as a
result of land grabs and disputes, a lack of labour rights and protections, and detrimental impacts on
the environment and local biodiversity – impacts which predominantly affect women’s livelihoods.
Chinese companies and national and local authorities should work with civil society and
communities to ensure that BRI projects in conflict-affected contexts are planned and delivered in
ways that avoid unintentionally contributing to internal conflicts or tensions and contribute instead
positively towards long-term peace and security. Only when social responsibility is being taken
seriously can projects become truly sustainable and mutually beneficial for all parties concerned.
Recommendations for guiding ‘win-wins’
Across three countries, the findings of our research point towards the need to build forward-
looking relationships that better reflect people’s opinions and needs. Among other
recommendations, national development plans should reflect commitments made to achieving the
Sustainable Development Goals and be designed and implemented in consultation with
communities and civil society. Chinese investors should take gender and conflict sensitivity more
seriously, making use of available tools and expertise to gain deeper insights into the likely impact
their investments will have. Once they better understand their impact on local conflict dynamics and
how such impacts are experienced differently by women, men, girls and boys, they should make
sure that effective measures to prevent or mitigate tensions or potential negative impacts on people
are included in the design and delivery of all projects. Issues related to land, labour and the
environment should urgently be addressed in accordance with existing national laws and customs to
prevent the risk of unrest and potential violence.
While perception studies like this do not provide a complete picture of the situation in each
country, they give insights about community concerns and identify issues for further investigation.
The case studies represent three very different countries and contexts, each with its own different
programmes of Chinese investment and unique relationships with China. Conclusions and
recommendations are therefore mainly country-specific, and can be used to help address problems
and improve the overall benefits of BRI programmes in each country by learning lessons from the
trends and challenges. One core action called upon by the China-led Initiative for Belt & Road
 52

Partnership on Green Development is to foster economic, social and environmental development in

a balanced and integrated manner in order to achieve the 2030 SDG goals. Most of its success will
depend on achieving mutual benefits for both local communities and Chinese businesses and
ensuring that conflict and gender sensitivity are effectively operationalised and become an integral
and mandatory component of doing business.
(Source: Safer World)

BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE AND ITS EFFECTS ON INDIAN

REGIONAL HEGEMONY
Virain Mohan (Christ University, Bangalore)
India’s dominance in South Asia is due to its large geographical area, economic might, military
strength, and strategic positioning over the Indian Ocean. But the coming of China’s Belt and Road
Initiative (BRI) has shaken up this hegemonic balance and given other, smaller regional nations a
chance to rise up against the dominant influence in the region. China has been penetrating regional
diplomacy in South Asia, all the while keeping in mind its larger aim of further securing its sources
in the West. For countries in the region such as Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, the BRI is seen as a more
neutral, if not benign force and has pushed India to become more considerate of changes and more
responsible for its own actions. With the rise of China, many scholars and think tanks have
aggressively researched this issue and proposed theories such as the “String of Pearls,” which has
become a topic of discussion and worry not only for India but also for the nations that have become
a part of China’s projects. This article will delve into the issue and discuss how China’s rise in South
Asia has changed the course of India’s regional and bilateral policies and relations. Although China
may seem to have a drastic impact on India’s position, it has not panned out that way. India has
been a dominant power in the region and unilateral in its diplomacy, but the rise of China gives
smaller nations power at the negotiating table with India and thus pushes India to place more focus
on neighbours.
Introduction
China initiated the BRI in 2013 when Chinese president Xi Jinping officially visited Kazakhstan.
BRI is considered to be the cornerstone policy of the Chinese Communist Party’s economic policy
and is aimed at strengthening China’s ties with the globe through the expansion of infrastructure,
policy, and cultural ties. The goal to achieve connectivity has been both land- and sea-based, namely
the Belt (i.e., land-based) and the Road (the so-called Maritime Silk Road). The Maritime Silk Road
aims to connect China to the North Sea, linking Singapore, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, Suez
Canal, Turkey, Greece, and Italy in between. Through this connectivity, China aims to not only
connect itself to its oil sources in the West but also to effectively counter its drawbacks in South Asia
and Southeast Asia; front-burner issues include the presence of US and Indian troops in the Indian
Ocean, fear of a blockade of the Strait of Malacca (through which passes most Chinese imports), and
piracy in the Indian Ocean threatening China’s mercantile business. This region plays a huge role in
the BRI project, and China has initiated massive plans enabling China to connect to the Indian
Ocean, minimizing the threats posed. These include the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC),
Gwadar Port, the Rahim Yar Khan Power Plant, and various wind, solar, and coal power projects in
Pakistan, as well as Hambantota Port, the Norochcholai Power Plant, and the Colombo Port City
project in Sri Lanka along with various other projects in Myanmar. China has pulled smaller nations
such as Nepal, Bangladesh, and Maldives into its orbit of influence as well, targeting their fear and
insecurities regarding India and a lack of international funding to enable and support their economic
growth. India’s neglect of smaller nations’ demands, both political and economic, have been
 53

sidelined for a long time. These nations are now part of the BRI and have been promised massive
funding under its banner; some have already received billions of dollars of investment to fund
infrastructure projects. But the funding came with drawbacks, such as massive debt on loans,
increased Chinese bureaucratic influence, high interest rates, various labour and working rights issues,
as well as, in some cases, complete takeover of ports and land to counterbalance increasingly negative
trade imbalances. Despite these challenges, politicians in the debtor nations have advanced relations
with China as the most viable and/or logical partner against India as well as to maintain standing in
the economic development race. China has thereby been able to grow its influence over smaller South
Asian countries to support its aims and to counter India. As for Indian foreign diplomacy, we see a
change in the decisions taken by the current ruling government. India has started to look at
neighbouring nations, especially in the East and South East, to expand its influence, as is evident in its
Look East policy, the Bangladesh–Bhutan–India–Nepal initiative, and the “Neighbourhood First” and
other funding projects that India has established individually or through partnership with nations
such as Japan and the United States. We next begin to look into the multipolar aspects of policy
changes and diplomatic exchanges resulting from the increase of Chinese influence and interests in
the region among the affected countries of South Asia, India, and China.
Chinese Foreign Policy Initiatives and India’s Responses
The BRI in South Asia aims to build economic partnerships and fulfill geostrategic ambitions.
After 2013, Chinese investment and other diplomatic strategies gained ground among Indian Ocean
littoral nations. Chinese authorities developed mechanisms to create cultural and economic links,
boosting China’s aims and image.
Pakistan
China’s relations with Pakistan have been the most notable. They signed a memorandum in
2013, a landmark agreement for long-term planning and development of CPEC, the BRI’s flagship
project. It is one of the six branches that serve China’s aims and aims to give China access to the
Indian Ocean through the construction of a 3,000km pipeline with road infrastructure. The access to
Gwadar Port will put China just 400km away from the Strait of Hormuz and would link Xinjiang to
the Indian Ocean. Apart from serving trade and commerce, the base could provide naval support to
Chinese forces in the region and help China secure its sea lines of communication, as well as counter
the so-called Malacca Dilemma and Indian and US troops in the region. The projects have also
brought worry for Pakistan’s politicians and bureaucracy, as the debts to China keep mounting and
resulted in the speculative “Dept-Trap” diplomacy, a tool utilized by lending nations to burden
borrowing nations with huge dept so as to influence its internal and external affairs.
However, bilateral relations have remained strong since 1951, when diplomatic relations were
established. China and Pakistan have backed one another in international disputes. Relations
hardened with the advent of the BRI in Pakistan. Increased Chinese interventions in the disputed
region and the Indian Ocean caused India to pay greater attention in the region, with the
development of Indian naval capabilities to protect Indian interests. The increased cooperation has
also resulted in US concerns, not only regarding Chinese activity but also the significance Pakistan
plays due to its strategic geographical position. China tried a counterbalance strategy, supporting
Pakistan through political, military, and economic fulfillments while trying to allay India’s
suspicions by offering antiterror cooperation.
India worries about the repercussions that could follow its rivals’ coordination in areas of
interest to India. China’s BRI passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and China’s construction
activity threatened India’s sovereignty. China and India have many conflicts on its long borders,
adding to mutual discontent among populations in both countries. Pakistan and India also have
disagreements and refuse to solve mutual conflicts, even though the United States and China would
like to see peace and stability in the region. Pakistan’s foreign policy aims to relieve some of this
 54

tension and enmity, if one is to believe Imran Khan, the current elected prime minister of Pakistan.
Moreover, Pakistan’s military has a propensity of exerting intervention into Islamabad’s external
political affairs, and terrorism emanating from Pakistan’s territories has frequently thrwarted efforts
to calm simmering conflicts.
Pakistan has taken a positive attitude toward China, the BRI, and its foreign policy despite
harsh allegations over how Chinese investments function in the country. The International Crisis
Group reported discontent among local populations from regions such as Balochistan and Sindh, the
fruits of the investments have not trickled down. The vast amount of raw materials being mined, the
huge number of illegal Chinese labourers being granted work permits, and the displacement of
communities have created resentment. Also, Pakistan has a $62 billion debt to China, causing not
only Pakistan but other international players to worry. Pakistan has no other option but to take loans
from China.
India–Pakistan relations have not seen drastic changes as a direct result of the BRI and Chinese
intervention. India has always been critical of Pakistan and vice versa, but Chinese investment in
Pakistan creates reasons for worry in India. The ruling government there shows no desire to mend
relations in light of issues such as the Pulwama attack and the eradication of Article 370. The attack
at Pulwama, by a suicide bomber, was one of the deadliest against the Indian military, killing 40
military personnel on the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway. Responsibility owas claimed by a
Pakistan-based terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, adding to the anger. The eradication of Article
370 in the Indian constitution, which gave special status to the region of Jammu and Kashmir, meant
that India now had more administrative control over the region, adding to Pakistan’s resentment.
Relations have soured as a result of these events, with no clear resolution on the horizon.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka has also received massive funding under the BRI. Sri Lanka provides China various
naval capabilities to function in the Indian Ocean. Sri Lanka’s geostrategic location and its
geographical terrain provides China the ability to make deep seaports for docking heavy and large
ships and easing the passage of Chinese mercantile ships through the region. As another benefit, the
Sri Lankan port could function as a checkpoint between China and its source nations in the West,
and China’s plans to set up oil refineries in Sri Lanka could bolster that goal. China has also funded
the Colombo Port City and other infrastructure projects to the tune of almost $15 billion.
The debt trap is an important issue (as it is in many other nations taking BRI funds), but recent
studies have shown that only 5–6 percent of Sri Lankan GDP is owed to China, comparatively much
less when taking into account that its other external debts owed including bonds (18 percent),
multilateral lenders (6.3 percent), and bilateral lenders (6.3 percent). The decision to lease ports and
giving up land on a 99-year lease resulted from Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves falling too low, as well as
the fact that China was the only lender that could provide Sri Lanka the type of investment it desired.
Many Chinese BRI projects have been unable to produce results promised, and, until recently, statistics
associated with projects such as Colombo Port City and Hambantota Port have been left out of
analyses altogether. All of these issues combined create an atmosphere of concern for India.
Relations between India and Sri Lanka have not been ideal since India’s intervention in Sri
Lanka in the 1980s, when India deployed peacekeeping force. Although India wanted to resolve the
issue within Sri Lanka (which also affected the southern regions of India), things got out of hand and
India had to withdraw its forces within two years, creating a rift. India’s attempts to fulfill its
objectives in Sri Lanka have been seen as leading to instability. And Sri Lanka politicians have
always criticized the bossy nature of Indian politicians, with allegations from previous presidents
such as Mahinda Rajapaksa and Srisena expressing India’s negative attitude toward their
governments. India did not help Sri Lanka with its developmental projects and backed out of the
Hambantota Port development, which eventually led to China’s entry into the country’s economics.
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Sri Lanka–China relations have progressed as a result of Hambantota, and today China’s investment
stands at almost $15 billion, mostly after 2013; the Hambantota deal was revised in 2017 under the
BRI banner. Since 2015, India–Sri Lanka relations have remained sour, with the outgoing president
even stating India’s role in his defeat. But India has been cautious with the government established
in 2019. India has offered investments such as the Eastern Container Terminal, with the aid of Japan,
lease of the Colombo airport, and a $450 million pledge to Sri Lanka. All this could be seen as an
effort by India to reduce China’s hold over Sri Lanka.
Relations between India and Sri Lanka, although sour, have never led to a great conflict, as in
Nepal, Bangladesh, and Pakistan. India has always been a reliable ally for Sri Lanka, and it has only
been India’s pessimistic attitude that led to discontent. India still plays an important role in
influencing Sri Lanka’s foreign policy. Sri Lanka had instructed China not to use Hambantota for
military purposes in 2018, after India objected when submarines entered the port in 2014; India’s
investments are also welcomed by Sri Lankan politicians. All that the Sri Lankan governments have
desired is mutual respect and cooperation, but India’s foreign policy has not been very cooperative
due to internal political issues, such as the ongoing Tamil dispute, or simply negligence. With the
rise of China, India increased its interactions with the Sri Lankan government. India’s largely
forgotten “Neighbourhood First” policy has started to gain importance.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh joined the BRI in 2016, and bilateral relations with China have been growing since,
much to India’s dismay. Geographically, Bangladesh is covered by India on three sides, with the Bay
of Bengal on the other. It shares 54 rivers with India and thus is susceptible to water-based natural
disasters. Bangladesh’s population and vegetation are often damaged due to floods, and
underdeveloped infrastructure adds to the misery. Bangladesh’s severe lack of infrastructure,
including ports, power plants, and roads makes the BRI a perfect platform to pursue improvements.
Padma Bridge has become symbolic of China’s growing relevance in Bangladesh’s politics, largely due
to the neglect that Western nations have shown toward Bangladesh. The bridge was not among the
seven to be built by China and being funded by the World Bank, but issues of corruption caused the
World Bank to withdraw its support to the project, a vacuum that China filled. Fear over the debt trap
is being applied to Bangladesh, but Bangladesh has been careful. Bangladesh received investments
from the Japanese International Aid Agency, private investors, and public-private partnerships, and
Bangladesh’s foreign minister stated it will “never will” ask for more loans from China (i.e., to put a
cap on the loans received). Other reasons for this careful approach has been fear of Indian hostility, as
well as the current leaders’ close relationship. India’s close proximity and geography will always be
dominant factors in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Currently Bangladesh owes $10 billion to China out
of a total $33 billion, but its growth in recent years has been immense, even matching and surpassing
India in measures such as expected life span, GDP growth, and income per capita (perhaps in 2025). So
it seems that the reason for worry in Bangladesh is getting more investments; the nature of those
investments is secondary. Bangladesh has received investments for two ports, Matarbari and Payra
(from Japan and China, respectively). But China influence and desires have shifted toward Kyaukpyu
Port in Myanmar, which provides China better accessibility to the Bay of Bengal as well as gas and oil
pipelines directly to China. Thus, China’s role in Bangladesh could be decreasing, but China would no
doubt benefit from a reliable partner in such close proximity to India. Lately, the leaders of Bangladesh
and China have become closer, which is visible through statements from both the leaders, Sheikh
Hasina and Xi Jinping.
India–Bangladesh relations as well have surely been boosted since the coming of the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA) in 2014, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Bangladesh to solve
the contentious border issue, as well as the resolution of the maritime dispute under the United
Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. But the counter is also true, and much discontent has
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sprung up in Bangladesh due to the Citizenship Amendment Act being passed in India. That act has
led to fears in Bangladesh of illegal migrants living in India being sent back to Bangladesh, and with
the already existing Rohingya crises and migrants in Bangladesh, the issue adds concern in the
Bangladesh population due to added migrants. Adding to it are the disrespectful remarks by Amit
Shah regarding infiltrators, which was visible during the prime minister’s visit on the fiftieth
anniversary of Bangladesh’s independence day and riots following his visit. India also lost support
from Bangladesh when issues in Ladakh propped up, with Bangladesh expressing neutrality in the
case. If bilateral relations are made and destroyed on the basis of fulfilling mutual interests, then
India needs to do more.
Bangladesh is being aided by China, but India-–Bangladesh cultural and geographical
proximity will dominate. India and Bangladesh have mutual issues and interests that can be used by
India to strengthen relations at any point. Prime Minister Modi has always shown a positive attitude
to Sheikh Hasina, and signing trade deals, bridge projects, and other transport-related deals would
help India maintain balance with China. India would be pressurized to solve other concerns, such as
the Teesta water dispute, which is based on water-sharing rights of Teesta River, a tributary of the
Brahmaputra between India and Bangladesh. India has shied away from discussing the issue and
has dissapointed Bangladesh, the lower reparian nation, which is affected by Indian projects on the
river. Also, India needs to provide clarifications to Citizenship Amendment Act, because India does
not want to lose a reliable partner in the East. China’s entry into Bangladesh has thus made India
more accountable to Bangladesh.
Nepal
Nepal is another nation bordering India that signed a BRI agreement with China in 2017. Under
that agreement, China agreed to build a trans-Himalayan connectivity network costing $2.75 billion,
the Koshi economic corridor, the Gandaki economic corridor, and Madam Bhandari University for
Science and Technology, plus other agreements of cultural and social relevance. Other than
technology and infrastructure deals, the two nations have also signed agreements on security
elements, with China foreseeing an extradition deal in the future with Nepalese authorities. Nepal
also recognizes the “One China” policy and has in instances helped Chinese authorities to catch and
return Tibetan infiltrators. The Chinese Communist Party’s influence in Nepal, exerted largely
through strong political links to the ruling communist bloc in Kathmandu, has also enabled China to
create strong political links in Nepal’s political sphere and influence its foreign policy, as during the
conflict with India in border skirmishes. Although India has the upper hand in terms of cultural
dominance in Nepal, China has furthered its approach by establishing Confucius centers in Nepal
and also has furthered its desire to introduce Mandarin language teaching in elementary schools.
But India’s dominance in Nepal’s day-to-day matters cannot be rivaled by the Chinese as of now.
India and Nepal have open borders, with people travelling from Nepal to find work in the
neighbouring country, and the majority Hindu population enables increasing people-to-people
connections. India has held strong bilateral relations with Nepal since the signing of the Treaty of
Peace and Friendship, and India’s vaccine diplomacy to treat COVID-19 has played a major role in
strengthening relations. Although India and Nepal have experiences some troubled waters in their
relations since 2015, such disputes have not become consequential. For smaller nations such as Nepal
issues can turn into bigger issues, as is the case with the Nepal–India border dispute. Thus it becomes
necessary for India as the larger to address such issues to counter Chinese growing influence.
China has economically dominated Nepal’s foreign direct investment (FDI), with 90 percent of
FDI coming from China in 2020. China has flexed its economic might in other South Asian regions as
well, and India in this respect needs to invest more in the Nepalese economy. India is not as strong
as China in economic terms, but close proximity and cultural links (in addition to economic aid) can
play out well for India. Similar to the case of Bangladesh, China’s entry into Nepal has made India
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more accountable and increased Nepal’s importance to India’s foreign policy. Nepal also plays a
major role in the Bangladesh–Bhutan–India–Nepal initiative, and India needs to further such
initiatives to balance out Chinese investments.
Maldives
Maldives is a nation of great geographical significance in the Indian Ocean, including 1,200
small islands with major sea lines of communication that are important strategically to China and
India. India and Maldives held strong bilateral ties until 2012, when President Mohamed Nasheed
was ousted by President Abdulla Yameen; various projects that were initially promised to India
were given to Chinese-owned companies. The growth of relations between Maldives and China
gained momentum with Yameen at the helm, and massive FDI and other agreements were signed by
the leaders. The nations also signed a free trade agreement and a memorandum of understanding
that linked Maldives to the BRI network. China’s investment focused on infrastructure, road
connectivity, upgrades to airports, and tourism. China’s FDI enabled development of the
international airport near Male, several islands such as Feydhoo Finolhu, Kunaavashi, and Male, the
iconic bridge linking the capital to the airport, and many other housing and development projects.
The country’s major GDP contributor is tourism, which is dominated by Chinese aid as well as
Chinese tourists visiting the country. Under the leadership of President Yameen, China saw major
developments in political, economical, as well as military terms. But after the change in government
and the new government under Ibrahim Solih, Yameen faced allegations of corruption and
favouring the Chinese government. The allegations were proven in subsequent court proceedings
showing that Yameen had been bribed to favour Chinese builders and projects under his rule. The
deepening of Chinese loans and concerns over Chinese projects gained greater transparancy when
the finance minister, Ibrahim Ameer, during his visit to Japan stated that Maldives owned 38 percent
of its national debt and 78 percent of its external debt to China.
With a new president in Maldives in 2018, India has been able to again gain importance in the
oscillating relations. India and Maldives signed various bilateral deals that focus on infrastructure,
India’s $1.4 billion line of credit and currency swap to backset China’s loans, and the provision of
medical equipment in response to COVID-19.
India’s relationship with Maldives backtracked with the incursion of China’s influence, as when
President Yameen’s cancelled development projects and redirected them to China. Under Yameen’s
presidency, China was able to dominate Maldives infrastructure projects (similar to Cambodia’s
Sihanoukville). China has dominated the country’s real estate market with the help of Cambodian
politicians, brought in Chinese builders, and changed the ethnic composition of the region. Similarly,
China gained growth in the building and tourism sectors under Yameen’s rule. China was also at the
forefront in developing several islands, and although none has proven to be under military use, as was
feared by many in India. With the increase in China’s dominance in the Maldives, Maldives has been
successful to date in averting that possibility thanks to Indian aid. The new government, concerned
about China’s tightening grip, has leaned India’s support. India cannot let go of this opportunity and
should follow through on aid to Maldives as guaranteed to President Solih.
Bhutan
Adding to a sense of relief in India is Bhutan. Bhutan has been dismissive of China’s intrusion
into the country, whethert in economic or political terms. Bhutan–China relations have traditionally
been scarred due to the continuous border issues cropping up between the two nations. Both nations
have had informal relations since 1950 and have had 24 bilateral talks on issues relating to the
border. The India–China border conflict in 2020 caused indirect effects in Bhutan, when China
challenged Tibet in the eastern territories, which it had never contested previously. China has
aggressively tried to build official bilateral relations and partner with Bhutan on the BRI, but Bhutan
has continuously declined despite the pressure.
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Over time, relations between Bhutan and India have been politically and economically strong.
India has developed major hydropower plant projects in Bhutan and has also proposed the
Bangladesh–Bhutan–India–Nepal initiative, in which Bhutan is an observer. India, in coordination
with Japan, has merged the objectives of India’s Act East policy and Japan’s Free and Open Indo-
Pacific policy and has proposed connecting the landlocked nation of Bhutan to Dan Nand in
Vietnam. The current Indian government is open to Bhutan’s desire to gain greater importance
within India’s foreign policy, as Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Bhutan showcased. India–Bhutan
relations have been constructive and optimistic throughout, and each country plays an important
role in the other’s policies to achieve a mutual goal of protecting their borders from China.
India’s Response
The Look East/Act East policy, as it morphed under the leadership of Prime Minister Modi,
emphasizes acting toward change and pushing relations further in the nations in East Asia and
Southeast Asia. The Act East policy is the cornerstone of Indian diplomacy to develop relations with
nations such as Japan, South Korea, and those in ASEAN. Under Act East, India launched initiatives
to increase trade, improve bilateral relations, and bring investments to multiple sectors such as
highways, food processing, auto components, and others. India initiated a development project for
the North Eastern Region (NER) in collabouration with Japan. The two nations combined the aims of
India’s Act East and Japan’s Open and Free Indo-Pacific, with both nations signing an agreement in
2017 to form India–Japan Act East. Under the agreement, Japan aided the growth of the NER and the
construction of highways and other projects that could link the region to Southeast Asia. Thus, this
plan will be able to bring in smaller nations such as Bangladesh, helping India counterbalance
Chinese aims and aid development of trade mechanisms leading to mutual growth. India has also
collabourated with the Quad to further its aims of a free and open Indo-Pacific. Such initiatives
would ensure that smaller nations enjoy opportunity of growth and development in a diversified
manner rather than being dependent on a single nation. The prograes have also envisioned projects
to counter the BRI such as the US Pivot Toward Asia, Japan’s China Plus One and Democratic
Security Diamond, and the Asia–Africa Growth Corridor by India in collabouration with Japan.
It may seem that India pursued a great through the Act East policy, but it has not been so. India
has not been able to reach $200 billion in trade between South Korea and Japan, which still stands at
$80 billion; apart from that, Act East, which had focused on pursuing the strengthening of relations
through ASEAN, has seen a dilution in its “ASEAN centrality.” Thus, there are concerns that the
policy is losing its core focus, rather than focusing on developing relations through ASEAN in the
numerous multilateral cooperation agreements. India should clarify its priorities and form a path to
ease future decision-making; it could highlight its desire to aid neighbouring nations and thereby
counterbalance Chinese investments and China’s political grip over the Indian Ocean littoral nations.
Apart from broader international programs, India has increased its focus on developing
transport connectivity and infrastructure in neighbouring regions under the banner of the Bay of
Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). India is also a
member of other regional bodies, but the inability of countries to find a consensus, and the presence
of China in other regional forums, limited opportunities for India to further its aims in regional
development. But India has been able to achieve better results in terms of BIMSTEC, with the
finalization of the BIMSTEC Master Plan for Transport Connectivity, signing of the Agreement on
Mutual Assistance on Custom Matters, and other plans for programs to help member nations tap
into resource-rich areas and create mechanisms to boost trade and investment.
India also launched the MAUSAM Project in 2014, an initiative to re-establish India’s maritime
routes with the traditional trade partners located around the Indian Ocean. The project would
enable economic and cultural ties, placing emphasis on monsoons, the natural wind patterns that
guide trade routes in the region. Currently, the plan has not been able to garner much support from
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the 39 countries that had been included as probable partners, and the project has not advanced very
far in terms of planning and functioning. If operationalized correctly, the project could lead India’s
political goal to increase its relevance in the Indian Ocean.
India has also signed multiple bilateral agreements and worked on constructing practical and
beneficial relations among neighbouring countries. Projects such as the Chabahar Port in Iran, which
aided India’s links to Russia and Central Asia, have also been seen as a way to counter the Chinese
Gwadar Port experiment. India could in the future focus more on building such projects, as they not
only aid India in trade and commerce but also increase India’s credibility on the global stage.
Conclusion
China is the second-largest economy in the world and one of the fastest-growing. China is the
largest importer of crude oil, and it needs to find effective measures to secure energy sources. China
wants to lead economic advancement in Asia, with BRI leading the way. Keeping in mind all its
aims and objectives, China brought BRI to most nations in South Asia, except for India and Bhutan.
Countries that signed agreements with China under BRI have surely seen growth in economic
sectors but have not been free of the drawbacks that come with Chinese investments. Along with
internal turmoil, there was the ability to challenge India’s hegemonic position and make India more
accountable to its neighbours. India has reciprocated the change and has surely been increasing its
interests and attention in the region. With various international actors wanting to subdue China’s
growing power in the region, India has various avenues to counterbalance China. India also holds
cultural and well as geographical superiority over China, and it would be difficult for China to
remain relevant in times of conflict due to fundamental strategic vulnerabilities. Thus, there hasn’t
been any radical policy changes by either sides, but the value and importance of the region have
been brought to light, which has made this region an important component of many countries’
foreign policy.
(Source: Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs)
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Economy
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT
Dr Shamshad Akhtar (Former Governor State Bank of Pakistan)
Investment in infrastructure is well recognized as the most effective accelerator and essential
driver of long-term and sustainable economic growth and development. Conversely, inadequate
infrastructure hurts growth and trade, while resulting in wide-ranging inefficiencies and
productivity losses and, in turn, lower tax receipts for governments and nation-states.
At 2.1 percent of GDP, Pakistan’s infrastructure spending is one of the lowest in the region and
well below the required national average of 8-10 percent of annual GDP. Infrastructure shortages
and inefficiencies have resulted in substantial national loss for Pakistan, with earlier estimates at
around $6 billion of GDP per annum. Latest evidence of the ADB Institute (ADBI) however points to
net income loss being more sizable as the lack of reliable access to electricity for households alone in
Pakistan costs around $4.5 billion a year.
Given that Pakistan’s population is estimated to rise by another 75 million in the next 15 years,
these infrastructure gaps and associated losses are likely to worsen. Not surprisingly then, the same
ADBI working paper notes that Pakistan will be faced with a gap of $124 billion in infrastructure
development between 2016 and 2040 – approximately $15 billion per annum.
Promoting infrastructure development is key to spurring robust economic growth as it has the
potential to enhance industrial competitiveness, commercialization and productivity, which in turn
helps job creation and incomes. Deficits, inefficiencies and high cost of energy, transport, and social
services have resulted in phenomenal costs to the country, including loss of tax revenue, retarded
development, stifled human development and perpetuated inequities.
Across the world, infrastructure development is being supported with innovative partnership
and financing structures, new approaches and modalities. In Pakistan, commercial banks account for
about three-fourth of all financial assets, but their appetite for credit risk associated with long-term
lending is limited. All incentives have remained skewed to support banking intermediation; hence
the role of capital markets to tap infrastructure capital has remained subdued. New capital raising
structures are therefore required to address the risk aversion issues of commercial banks and to
leverage financing from other commercial capital providers.
Within this context, the establishment of InfraZamin Pakistan (IZP) is a timely and fortuitous
event. First, there is massive demand. Both issuers’ and investors’ demand for a local credit
enhancement facility is significant and catering to this is expected to bring in depth, sophistication
and inclusivity to the financial markets. Second, given the massive gap in infrastructure financing in
Pakistan, coupled with perpetuating fiscal deficits, growing debt burden and weak public resource
mobilization, IZP is expected to play a critical role in crowding in the required level of private
capital and to bridge the growing and unmet requirements of Pakistan’s infrastructure financing.
Third, InfraZamin has successfully tapped a like-minded community in the form of its three
principal sponsors – GuarantCo, InfraCo Asia and Karandaaz Pakistan – which will not only be a
source of financial support but also of the expertise and technical assistance required by this first-of-
its-kind entity. Guarantco brings to InfraZamin experience of infrastructure debt-raising of $5.8
billion in 57 transactions across 22 countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. However,
simultaneously it would be remiss not to state that risk sharing is a joint responsibility of the state,
financial intermediaries and credit enhancement facilities.
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Pakistan’s financial sector regulators have played a key role in issuing guidelines for licensing
and operation of credit enhancement facilities such as InfraZamin, providing facilitation in enabling
FDI by foreign subsidiaries and amending the prudential regulations to recognize InfraZamin Credit
Guarantee Facility, to give comfort to private domestic or foreign capital seeking opportunities to
invest in long-term funding. That said, the state could also consider working towards promoting
dedicated private infrastructure funding institutional mechanisms and offer a viable policy, legal
and regulatory framework both at the macro and sector level, exploit more user pay infrastructure
transactions such as PPPs (Public Private Partnerships) combined with the need to manage debt
exposures by governments.
A prerequisite for attracting private sector investment are stronger and predictable legal and
regulatory as well as policy and institutional capacities across the federal, provincial and municipal
levels. Some efforts have been underway to facilitate approvals. For instance, the Central
Development Working Party (CDWP), organized by the Planning Commission has been delegated
the authority to approve development projects recommended by any province and with outlays
exceeding Rs10 billion.
Specific focus on low-cost housing and increased spending under the federal PSDP will also
have a positive knock-on effect on infrastructure development in the country. But for sustained
momentum, political structures need to align themselves and the federation should launch distinct
efforts to align, harmonize and streamline policies while offering effective guidance to the provinces
and local governments, as well as facilitate/fast track approvals and due diligence by reducing red
tape in the system.

INCREASING EXPORTS IS THE ONLY WAY TO GROWTH

Hassnain Javed (Special Advisor–Pakistan Institute of Management)
In June 2021, I wrote an article titled “Sustainability Mantra: Exports, Exports and Exports.” I
was convinced back then that the only salvation for Pakistan’s growth was a dramatic increase in
exports. But unfortunately, all previous governments and institutions have only ignored and
misunderstood the real power, and the impact exports can have on a country’s economy. They have
all focused on imports and on methods to pay the enormous import bills.
As identified earlier, Pakistan’s exports stood at 4.9 percent in January this year. However, I
truly wanted to understand the current export dynamics and decipher the code that was changing
the country’s export landscape. Who better to indulge in a commerce conversation than the
undisputed guru of business and trade, Mr. Abdul Razak Dawood. I call this the Abdul Razak
Dawood Exports Mantra or the ARD Exports Mantra.
He explained to me the true wisdom that has helped Pakistan in gaining its export momentum.
Firstly, like any astute businessman, it was essential to catch the pulse of the business and identify
the gaps that could be filled immediately. Thus, making the most of the US-China trade war,
Pakistan was able to fill the void left by American exports. By only reacting to this situation
intelligently, the government increased exports with China up to a staggering 34% $2.33 billion
during the fiscal year 2020-21 compared to $1.74 billion in the previous financial year, going up by
$586 million. A primary motivator behind this increasing export number is precise, achievable, and
realistic export targets. The export target for FY2020-21 is $35 billion.
Secondly, the Ministry of Commerce started reviving the stale or non-existing relationships
with various trading partners. Consider the case of Central Asian countries, the fact that no previous
government realized that by offering trade routes or using the most basic of commodities exchange
formula, Pakistan would gain access to this landlocked region and benefit its industries. The cherry
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on the cake is the access to Russia; with our improving relations with CA5 states and Russia,
Pakistan’s exporters can venture into business heaven. Pakistan-Russia bilateral trade witness a
growth of 46% to $790 million. Now with the lifting of the ban on Pakistani Basmati rice, Russia’s
interest in the Belt and Road Initiative, and Russia’s commitment to investing $1.7bn in the Karachi-
Lahore gas pipeline – healthy export relationships are simply around the corner. Similarly,
Uzbekistan has proven to be yet another trade win-win for Pakistan; $ 34.3 million worth of bilateral
trade took place between the countries in 2020 as Pakistan’s exports to Uzbekistan went up from
$17.4 million to $25.2 million in the last three years. Apart from the Central Asian states, Abdul
Razak Dawood and his team have revived trading relations with the Netherlands, Indonesia,
Bangladesh, Poland, Germany, and United Kingdom with bilateral trade worth $1.2 billion, $2.5
billion, $644 million, $308 million, 1.3 billion and 2.025 billion respectively.
Thirdly, tariff rationalization was a major milestone towards improving the ease of doing
business and opening avenues for the business community. The government has decreased tariffs on
raw materials to make Pakistani products more competitive in the international market. Another
part of this strategy was the intentional control of “Intermediate Capital Goods,” Additional custom
duty, and Regularity Duty and the formalization of tariff decisions through the Tariff Policy Board
(TPB). The TPB team is responsible for analyzing export products’ complex structures and
compositions and making effective recommendations to the National Tariff Board to ensure
informed decisions are taken on the governmental level. The skeptics and the critics of this move
must understand that Pakistan’s weighted average mean tariff of 12.7% is the highest amongst the
top-70 exporting countries in the world. Compare this to the data of top-70 exporting nations, which
revealed a weighted average tariff of 2.7%, the global average tariff of 2.6%, and the South Asian
average of 5.9%.
Lastly, for the first time in the country’s history, I heard about boosting the trade through
Graphical Indication (GI) tag items. Most people are unaware of the term GI tag, let alone the
economic benefit for businesses and countries. GI Tag products are considered unique due to their
geographical, cultural, or historical background. Fortunately for Pakistan, GI tag products are
abundant and can be sold at a much higher price in the international market. These include Multani
Mangoes, Swat peaches, Kashmiri Pashmina, Khewra pink salt, Sialkot sports, surgical goods,
Sahiwal cattle, Sindhi Topi, and Ajrak, truck art, Chitrali embroidery, Gujranwala pottery, Multan
blue pottery, Peshawari Chappal (sandals), Kalash dress and much more. It was only in 2020 that a
GI Registration and Protection Act was introduced to protect these products. According to an
estimate, the export earnings from only the top 21 GI tag items will increase to $3.5 billion per
annum. The Geographical Indication tag can help revive the SME sector and put Pakistan on the
world map for its uniqueness and exclusivity.
I remember penning down Pakistan’s export paradox, where it does well one year and
completely misses the mark in the second year. However, my conversation with Abdul Razak
Dawood reassures me of a positive outlook for exports, and if we can stick to the ARD Exports
Mantra, who knows, Pakistan might turn its luck around.
(Source: Daily Times)

DEMYSTIFYING THE ECONOMY

Dr Abid Qaiyum Suleri (Head, Sustainable Development Policy Institute)
First, the good news: the International Monetary Fund (IMF), one of Pakistan’s biggest lenders,
has expressed confidence that Pakistan’s economic growth in the last fiscal year was more than
double its earlier estimates.
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Business-friendly measures announced in the recent federal budget, an accommodative

monetary policy, concessionary loans for businesses, and disbursement of cash to the poor under the
Ehsaas programme are steps that are believed will keep the growth momentum consistent
throughout the current fiscal year too.
The improved business environment has directly benefited many sectors of the economy, such
as large-scale manufacturing, export-oriented industries and construction etc. Weather permitting,
agricultural growth is also expected to remain robust this year. Prime Minister Imran Khan himself
is seen to be taking a keen interest in agricultural transformation and has announced a slew of fiscal
concessions for the winter crops.
Foreign exchange reserves – $24.87 billion on July 31, 2021 – are also expected to remain robust
this year. By the end of this month, these reserves will rise further by $2.8 billion through a special
allocation made by the IMF. In tandem with these developments, $1 billion was raised last month
through the sale of Eurobonds and $1.89 billion has been raised since September 2020 through term
deposits in Roshan digital accounts.
Compared to their very high growth in 2020-21, workers’ remittances may decline slightly as
corona-necessitated travel restrictions ease and Pakistani expats are able to bring money into
Pakistan in person rather than through banks, as they have been doing over the last year or so. This
decline may be counterbalanced by the restrictions that the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has
imposed on currency movements across borders to discourage money laundering.
These reserves will help Pakistan in making repayments to its external lenders. Pakistan is
estimated to pay $14.7 billion this year in principal and interest amounts to its foreign lenders.
The overall impact of the factors mentioned above is that the economy is growing, leading to
increased demand which is resulting in increased imports. This is where the story of Pakistan’s
economic growth takes a twist. Increased imports of petroleum products, edible oil, wheat, sugar
and cotton, among other things – at prices which have been highest in recent years – are causing
import bills to go through the roof. Even though this is good news for the Federal Board of Revenue
(FBR), which collected more than half of its revenue during July 2021 through import taxes, this
could easily eat up all the gains that the economy has made in the last year or so.
Here’s why: Pakistan’s current economic growth is fueled by import-based domestic
consumption which is heavily dependent upon a constant build-up of foreign exchange reserves (so
that import bills are continued to be paid). In the absence of a corresponding increase in export
earnings, however, the ever-rising import bills lead to a balance of payments (BOP) crisis. To explain
this crisis in simple words, it means that you need more money to pay for your imports and to
return loans than you have in your kitty.
In a high-import growth scenario, any substantial decrease in remittances or other inflows of
money can easily lead to a situation in which dipping into the foreign exchange reserves becomes
inevitable. This, in turn, puts pressure on the rupee’s exchange prices and declines in Pakistan’s
credit-worthiness.
To shore up its foreign exchange reserves, Pakistan can go to multilaterals (ADB, IMF, and the
World Bank). However, the biggest stumbling block in this regard will be the fact that the IMF has
already put its ongoing loan programme for Pakistan on hold – mainly because of the country’s
failure to act on two fronts: managing energy circular debt and carrying out structural reforms in the
economy. The only way to reduce circular debt in the short run is to increase electricity prices. The
World Bank’s move to link its $1 billion loan with increase in tariffs also points the same way.
PM Khan is determined not to increase the power tariffs as costlier energy will impact the people.
However, if the government cannot pass on the price impact of expensive imports – such as oil and gas
– to consumers due to political compulsions then it will have to absorb the price shock through
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subsidies. While, on the one hand, these subsidies will increase the government’s expenditure and
thus increase the existing gap between its income and its expenses, on the other, they will increase
circular debt accumulating in the energy sector which is already touching Rs2.5 trillion.
In the meantime, as imports surge – having been valued at $6.05 billion in June 2021, an all-time
high, and $5.4 billion in July 2021 – importers need more dollars than they can find in the market.
The State Bank of Pakistan could have improved the dollar supply by using its reserves, but it has to
rightly spend those reserves on external debt and liability payments. It will only interfere if the
foreign currency market goes totally haywire. Resultantly, the rupee’s value has slipped from 152 to
a dollar to 164 to a dollar in the last two months.
The rupee’s ongoing depreciation is making imports costlier in local markets which is highly
likely to push up inflation. It could, simultaneously, also result in the dollarization of the economy –
a state in which people want to turn their assets into dollars to stave off the effects of depreciation in
local currency.
If this depreciation of rupee is unable to slow down the demand for imports and current
account deficit crosses a certain threshold, then the SBP will have no other option but to increase
interest rates to curb consumption and incentivize savings. It will be easier said than done though.
As the demand for certain imports such as fuel, edible oil, and certain other food items is
inelastic. Curbing it will curb economic growth and cause food inflation. This means that the
depreciation of the rupee will not have its desired impact on imports and exports and will, instead,
increase the domestic sales price of imports.
Similarly, the SBP cannot easily increase interest rates, which it has kept at 7 percent for more
than one year now, without the risk of hurting an already precarious economic growth
overshadowed by Covid-19.
This leaves Pakistan with the same option that it has often used in order to have enough foreign
exchange in its kitty to pay for its high imports as well as to return its debts: reengaging with
multilaterals by accepting their demand about increase in electricity tariff.
The Ministry of Energy has a decent circular debt management plan. It can use some ‘consumer
neutral’ bookkeeping solutions (such as replacing general sales tax with increased base-tariff) to
partly recover the cost of electricity generation. The rest of the cost can be recovered through
progressive increase in tariffs, better bill collection, and reducing losses etc. Doing so, it has the
cushion to insulate the consumers of less than 200 units of electricity per month (lower 40 percent of
population) from any price shock through subsidies.
Pakistan is on a growth trajectory. However, to tackle a potential balance of payments crisis, it
will have to choose a rational combination of three moves: a gradual depreciation in the rupee’s
value, a gradual increase in interest rate and a phased increase in energy prices.
Having said that, to sustain growth beyond this period, the government will have to ensure an
increase in export earnings and encourage investment – both foreign and local.
(Source: TNS)
 65

Education
EDUCATION CRISIS
Inayat Ullah Khattak (Chair Department of English (Graduate Studies) at NUML)
WE are already into the fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Delta variant has been
declared by leading medical experts as the fastest, the fittest and the most formidable version of the
coronavirus. What’s next is yet to be seen. What’s known is that far from being over, the pandemic is
hitting us harder than before. One of the casualties is education, especially at the primary, middle
and tertiary level.
With over 1.5 billion learners impacted worldwide due to school closures in 192 countries, the
educational crisis caused by Covid-19 may worsen as the Delta variant spreads. The matter poses a
greater challenge to low-income countries such as Pakistan, where, according to Unesco, 22.8 million
children, aged five to 16 years, do not attend school. The staggering figure equals 41 per cent of this
age group in Pakistan.
Fifteen months into the current crisis, what awaits the country’s already dismal education milieu in
the current as well as the post-pandemic era, depends a great deal on what kind of strategy our
policymakers devise, and with what promptness its implementation is ensured. After all, one cannot live
on the hope that the pandemic will end and normalcy will return to the education landscape.
Had the Covid-19 emergency been limited to Pakistan, internationally, there would be nothing to
compare it to. However, the infection has disrupted studies and led to the closure of educational
institutions in several countries. The latter can learn from each other’s success stories, as well as their
failures.
Other than the developed Global North, there are also examples of determination and
innovation in the rest of the world to learn from. Wuhan in China, where the coronavirus first
surfaced, opted for conducting ‘air classes’ for its more than one million learners. It also
supplemented teaching with extra classes on how to stop the spread of the virus. The city of São
Paulo, Brazil’s most populated city, sought strategies in addition to online instruction for learners.
All over Bangladesh, the state-run Sangsad Television broadcast lessons for students. Kashan in Iran
televised educational programmes for learners in the city; and Turin in Italy shifted to online
teaching for students.
In March 2020, the calamity caught Pakistan not only unawares but also unprepared, exposing
our lack of resources and insufficient infrastructure in the face of such a crisis. The more worrying
question is, whether we are better equipped now, 15 months into the pandemic. What steps have
been taken to resume educational activities for primary, middle and secondary school students,
especially the ones who do not have the privilege of studying in privately run institutions?
What is the way forward? The Teleschool at the federal level and Taleem Ghar in Punjab air
lectures for learners from Grades 1 to 12 and 1 to 8, respectively. Notwithstanding these welcome
initial steps, the absence of a uniform curriculum has made it difficult to target students throughout
the country. Providing feedback, achieving the relevant course learning outcomes and conducting
assessments are issues that will still go unattended until they are given greater attention.
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By taking their cue from the practices of most of the universities which resorted to online
teaching in the country and collabourating with leading private schools that have developed their
own online platforms, the educational authorities can run similar operations to reach out to the
maximum number of learners in Pakistan. It is true that massive investment will be needed to
ensure that no one is left out, even those who live in remote parts of the country. But the effort will
be worth it at a time when the end of the pandemic is nowhere in sight.
Keeping in view the recommendations of the steering committee of Sustainable Development
Goals-Education 2030, and understanding the fact that education is the primary responsibility of the
state, it is imperative to avoid measures that could further dent an already weak and vulnerable
school system. In our case, a strong sense of purpose is required to deliver what is needed: a well-
thought-out strategy, generous funding to ensure that an alternative instructional system, in the
form of online teaching platform, is established and made accessible to all learners. Spending on
education is not a cost but an investment that builds sustainable, inclusive and more equal societies.
Establishing a resilient and prepared education system is the need of the hour — in these times of
Covid and beyond.
(Source: Dawn)

PROS AND CONS OF THE SNC

BR Editorial
The Single National Curriculum (SNC) is going to be neither as single nor as national in its
implementation as it is in its description because the Sindh government has reservations about it
and would not be implementing it in the second largest province of the country. Federal Education
Minister Shafqat Mahmood seems confident enough that Sindh will eventually fall in line, but till it
does it can do as it wishes with the SNC because under the constitution, education is a provincial
subject. So even if Prime Minister Imran Khan’s vision of the common curriculum somehow
breaking the shackles of slavery and achieving unity in diversity and all that is brought to life, that
particular ‘Naya Pakistan’ will have to leave Sindh out of it, at least for the time being. In fact, the
education minister’s threat that all schools, public and private, would have to adopt the new
curriculum or face stern action also turns out to be a pretty empty one, since the provinces are free to
choose on their own. It’s just that three of them have either PTI or PTI-allied governments, but that
still doesn’t mean that the education ministry can twist their arms all the way from Islamabad.
So the takeoff could, and really should, have been smoother. All they had to do was give
important stakeholders a little more say in such important matters than they are in the habit of
seeking. But that’s still not to say that it is quite an achievement and it shows, more than anything
else, that the government’s thinking is correct. Sometimes, though, it’s not what you do that matters
as much as how you do it. And this seems one of those times. As things stand, there two education
systems running in the country; Matriculation and O- and A-Levels, and in the former there is one
federal board, various provincial boards, and even one private board of education and essentially it
is the function of these boards to devise the curriculum. Yet while it’s one thing to solve this
problem by introducing a uniform curriculum, it’s quite another to stitch one together in a hurry,
without taking too many concerned parties on board, and shoving it down everyone’s throats even
as academics and teachers raise a number of red flags around it.
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The content of some of the courses that all students in the country are supposed to learn to
become better educated Pakistanis, for example, is already leaving a little to be desired. Why, they
should explain, have they clubbed science together with social studies for junior classes, while part
of the reason for the entire exercise was to raise students better equipped to survive and thrive in the
modern world; and understanding science as a niche subject right from the beginning is an essential
part of such training? Minorities have been told to walk away with special subjects concerning each
one of them without much consultation either. All in all it seems, well-intentioned though it clearly
is, a policy matter rushed through the pipeline to meet perhaps a party deadline for some sort of
well-calculated political point-scoring.
The government clearly knows well enough that this is the first time that an issue so important
as education curriculum has ever been given high-level thought in this country; not the least because
the education minister kept mentioning this fact in his speech. So it must also realise that this task is
labourious and time consuming, and demands serious attention to detail, that it’s at best a once-in-a-
lifetime thing. But that is precisely why it is so important to do it right the first time. And that is
where the ruling party might have got a little ahead of itself. If a standard education policy risks
creating more confusion than it can bring efficiency to the system, or even wasting a few generations
while the people at the top, who might or might not win the next election, experiment with the
results till they get it right, then it is only worth a whole nation’s future when it has been properly
thought through. And that’s a long process.
The good thing about SNC is that it pushes the ball forward on a very important issue. But
perhaps the not-so-good thing is that it seems to have been put together in undue haste for no
reason at all.
(Source: Business Recorder)
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Energy Crisis
POWER AND POLICIES
Engr. Hussain Ahmad Siddiqui (Former Chairman of the State Engineering Corporation)
As early as 1990, the State Engineering Corporation (SEC) of the Ministry of Industries and
Production had already embarked upon an ambitious effort to develop joint ventures with global
companies for undertaking thermal power plant projects on turn-key basis. The looming electricity
shortage in the country was duly anticipated – considering the existing 10,800 MW installed
generation capacity – and the market demand for power plants was strong. It was no small
achievement to attract foreign manufacturers as consortium partners in this venture, while it was an
equally herculean task to secure government support for such a policy trajectory.
Within a short period, SEC had developed capacity and capability to supply conventional
steam-based power plants (oil/ gas and coal) and combined cycle power plants, under technology
transfer agreements with western companies such as GEC-Alsthom of France and the UK (now
Alstom) and General Electric (GE) of the USA. These power plants could be set up in public or
private sector on EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction) basis along with project
financing.
However, as with most well-meaning efforts of specialists in the government sector, the
domestic engineering industry was never allowed to develop the power sector thanks largely to a
group of ill-meaning politicians and bureaucrats, whose omissions and commissions brought the
country to today’s pitiful situation.
Initially there were some successes. The government of the time adopted measures to support
local engineering industry, which translated into Ministry of Water and Power’s formal support for
indigenisation plans as early as in January 1991. The PML-N government had also disallowed
turnkey imports of power plants as well – vide Prime Minister’s directive of April 14, 1992 –
emphasising on optimal indigenous content of such power plants. This allowed Heavy Mechanical
Complex (HMC), then a company of SEC, to manufacture a significant portion of machinery and
equipment for WAPDA’s Muzaffargarh Power Station Extension Unit 4 of 320 MW capacity for
which the Chinese were the EPC contractors.
Earlier in 1991, HMC had produced and supplied equipment for Boiler Package of KESC (now
K-Electric) Bin Qasim Thermal Power Plant Extension Units 3, 4, 5 and 6, each of 210 MW, under
consortium with Hitachi (Japan) and Deutsche Babcock (Germany). WAPDA had also agreed to
place orders on SEC for a complete thermal power plant of 210/300 MW capacity every year subject
to satisfactory arrangements for technology transfer and financial package.
Pursuant to plan, SEC concluded a General Cooperation Agreement, on June 24, 1992, with
GEC Alsthom, turbo-generator manufacturers, and Deutsche Babcock of Germany (now Babcock
Borsig), manufacturers of steam boilers, for collabouration in joint execution of establishing
complete thermal power plants under technology transfer arrangements. It was also agreed to
participate in the refurbishment, upgrading and modernisation of existing thermal power plants.
The agreement had provision of setting up a joint venture company in Pakistan at a later stage
for the purpose, and focused on human resource development in the areas of design, engineering
and manufacturing. The foreign partners also agreed to provide technical and financial support for
upgrading domestic production facilities to increase local content under a phased indigenisation
programme. Subsequently, the detailed Framework Consortium Agreement was signed on October
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02, 1992. Meanwhile, WAPDA decided to set up a unit of 360 MW capacity as extension of
Muzaffargarh thermal power plant with the help of this Consortium.
Accordingly on December 13, 1993, a Framework Manufacturing Licensing and Transfer of
Technology Agreement was signed with GEC Alsthom. The Agreement being valid for ten years,
allowed SEC companies to progressively manufacture turbine, generator and allied equipment
under license, for which GEC Alsthom agreed to provide generous technical assistance. This was a
major breakthrough. A detailed technical, commercial and financial proposal was thus submitted to
WAPDA on December 21, 1993, offering turnkey project, without civil works, at US$250 million,
with SEC share of equivalent $50 million utilising national resources of engineering and
manufacturing in public as well as private sector. The foreign portion was to be financed under a
combination of state credit and commercial loans from France, the UK and Germany, whereas local
financing was to be arranged by SEC through the then LMM (Locally Manufactured Machinery)
Scheme of State Bank of Pakistan.
But by then the government had changed and Benazir Bhutto became the Prime Minister in
October 1993. Progress on all WAPDA projects in pipeline was stalled and Power Policy 1994, titled
“Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in
Pakistan”, was launched in March 1994.
Nonetheless, Chairman WAPDA still confirmed on June 12, 1994 that the SEC proposal for
Muzaffargarh project was being recommended to the government. Interestingly, a cabinet minister
from Balochistan on his first day in office had summoned the then Chairman SEC to his office only
to introduce him to two of his “friends” who would meet the Chairman for securing ‘party funds’.
The two friends came over the very next day and indicated that if their financial interest was not
accommodated by SEC in the proposed Muzaffargarh thermal power project, it will never see the
light of day. Their request for contributions was ignored and so, not surprisingly, the project was
killed off from high up.
Another example of calculated dismantling of institutional efforts involved an MOU signed by
SEC with GE and Cockrill Mechanical Industries (CMI) of Belgium on April 27, 1993 to establish
collabouration for manufacture and supply of complete combined cycle power plants under transfer
of technology. WAPDA had initially asked proposals for Quetta Combined Cycle project of 300 MW
and Sahiwal-I Combined Cycle project of 600 MW. Sahiwal-II Combined Cycle project of 600 MW
was proposed to be established in private sector, for which WAPDA had already prepared a
detailed feasibility study and the World Bank was likely to finance. The proposed consortium had
agreed to participate in all the three projects. GE was to supply steam turbines for the projects,
whereas CMI was responsible for the boilers and SEC for components and auxiliaries of boilers,
equipment for balance of plant and services for installation, erection and commissioning.
Subsequent to the later decision of WAPDA to go for a revised 300-MW power plant at Sahiwal
in the first instance, the Secretary Water & Power, Chairman SEC and Member Power, WAPDA had
detailed discussions at the headquarters of GE in the USA, also attended by CMI, in September 1993,
finalising parameters of the project and outline of technical proposal and financial package. Target
price for the turnkey supply of the plant including civil works was $225 million, excluding land
costs. Value-wise share of SEC for the supply of electromechanical equipment was agreed to be 30%
of total bid price. Each consortium member was to arrange credit facility to finance the cost of its
share of supplies and services. CMI also indicated part of financing through state credit (Belgium) at
zero-rate interest.
Based on above parameters, WAPDA issued Letter of Interest to SEC for Sahiwal project on
November 13, 1993 and a comprehensive Consortium Agreement was concluded in Islamabad on
February 22, 1994. The 45-page document covered scope of supplies and services and proportionate
share, management of project, and scope of transfer of technology to SEC, besides contractual
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conditions such as project schedule, payment terms, guarantees/warranty, taxes, liquidated

damages for delays, insurance, disputes, etc. Generation cost worked out to be 3.76 cents per kWh
using natural gas and 4.56 cents operating with furnace oil. Thus, a detailed proposal was presented
to WAPDA on March 5, 1994 for 300 MW Sahiwal project, with firm price of $217 million, exclusive
of civil works and financing costs, to be completed in 39 months. Financial package covered
attractive commercial loans from the USA and Belgium without asking for sovereign guarantees
from Pakistan.
With all this considerable groundwork done and internationally agreed to, the new government
in its wisdom decided that WAPDA would not establish any more thermal power plants, declaring
that it is in direct conflict with its Power Policy announced in March 1994. Under these
circumstances, the consortium partners agreed in November 1994 to switch the Sahiwal project to
private sector introducing an international investor from the USA to develop the project. The
government did not allow this either. Ministry of Planning and Development in its correspondence
of March 01, 1995 gave the reason that the policy package had already attracted investment
proposals for about 17,000 MW for thermal-based power plants, and there was no need for
additional generation capacity – although in the end only 3,400 MW was installed by the IPPs.
It is worth mentioning that the proposed Sahiwal project was to be constructed at $750 per kW.
The 1,292 MW Hub Power Project (HUBCO), the first private power project in the country was
constructed at $1.6 billion or $800 per kW. This new Power Policy of 1994 had assumed cost of a
project at no less than $1,000 per kW, and indicative bulk tariff of 6.5 cents per unit for first ten years.
Thus, another effort towards indigenous and cost-effective power generation was thwarted.
Eventually, the proposed summary of the Ministry of Industries and Production titled
‘Indigenisation of Thermal Power Plant Equipment’ forwarded to the ECC of the Cabinet for
approval, was unceremoniously dumped under instructions of the office of the Prime Minister,
communicated by then Secretary Water and Power, Salman Faruqui on May 14, 1995. Even though
the then SAPM Shahid Hasan Khan had committed in writing to SEC on November 13, 1993 that
“maximum indigenisation of power equipments should be at core of our energy policy”, they were
only hollow words.
With the final blow being dealt to the years of efforts by relevant state institutions to pre-empt
the power crisis, nineteen Independent Power Producers were allowed under the new policy regime
to exact ridiculous margins of profit by way of exorbitant prices and lopsided terms and conditions,
without any chance for indigenous learning or expertise. The disaster that this move proved to be
for the economy and the people cannot be understated and Pakistan could not recover from this
monumental disservice till today.
(Source: Money Matter)

ALLEVIATING PAKISTAN’S ENERGY POVERTY

Going ‘top-down’ instead of ‘bottom-up’
Dr Shahid Rahim (Expert on Sustainable Energy and Power System Planning)
Dr. John P. Holdren (Adviser on S&T to US President Obama for his double term in office and a
distinguished faculty at Harvard and Berkley for over two decades) believes that a society can get
into trouble with “energy” either by not having adequate resources or by their costs moving beyond
its reach. What Dr. Holden perhaps didn’t expect was that a society can have sufficient endowment
of energy resources and still can push the energy out of the reach of its people and economy. Our
present energy imbroglio is a classic case in point.
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As energy is lifeblood to modern society, access to a minimum quantum of affordable, secure, and
sustainable energy supplies is inevitable to fuel the economy and keep the lights on. Electricity is also a
superior energy carrier for its versatility of use, ease of control, and cleanliness. As societies progress and
their incomes grow, people switch from traditional fuels to electricity. Though not an absolute measure
of it, electricity consumption per capita is a reasonable indicator of a country’s development.
According to International Energy Agency’s “Key world Energy Statistics 2020”, Pakistan’s per
capita annual energy consumption of half a ton of oil equivalent is only 29% of the average world
consumption, 13% of the developed countries, and 23% of that of China. Its per capita annual
electricity consumption of 593 kWh is only 18% of the world average, 7% of the developed country
average, and 12% of that of China. Fifty to sixty million people in Pakistan still do not have access to
electricity. Pakistan’s 1,250 USD per capita GDP is only 11% of the world average, 3% of that of the
developed countries, and 16% of that of China.
We thus face abject poverty, both in economic development and energy use. Energy poverty may
not be the exclusive cause of our economic poverty, but it’s certainly among the key contributing factors
because access to affordable and reliable energy supply and in particular that of electricity enable a
decent standard of living for people and drives the engine of economic development.
Energy poverty may not be the exclusive cause of our economic poverty, but it’s certainly
among the key contributing factors because access to affordable and reliable energy supply and in
particular that of electricity enable a decent standard of living for people and drives the engine of
economic development.
Energy poverty stifles both human growth and economic development. Energy prices, if exceed
beyond the affordability of citizens adversely affect their quality of life, compelling them to cut
corners on food, education, and health. Higher energy prices also undermine the competitiveness of
agricultural producers, commercial businesses, and industries. It is, therefore, critical that we look
deeper into the causes of our energy poverty and take measures to ensure that affordable, reliable,
secure, sustainable energy supplies remain available for our people and economy.
Without dwelling on the past and making a passing note of the futility of continuing on the
existing approach to managing the energy sector in Pakistan, we move on to offer a broad-brush
sketch of an alternative approach that holds a better promise in turning our energy poverty into at
least self-sufficiency, if not affluence. Power sector will be our focus, electricity being the choice
carrier even now and its increased importance in the future.
The primary cause of our energy (electricity) poverty has been our over-reliance on centralized
power supply system based largely on imported technologies and fuels. This approach has led to
prohibitively expensive electricity supplies. While one can seriously debate the viability of this
approach, let’s forgive our past leaders as they might have just followed the established practices.
There’s, however, no excuse to continue on the same path in the future as this will lead to financial
ruin, not just of the power sector, but for the whole economy.
The traditional approach to managing the power sector essentially consisted of aggregating
consumers’ forecast demand and meeting it through a least-cost expansion of generation and T&D
facilities. As bigger has always been better (more efficient) and cheaper too (economy of scale), it
made sense to develop generation projects as large as practicable closer to sources of primary energy
supplies or large water bodies for cooling. These approaches have become obsolete in the wake of
disruptive market forces that have put small-scale, distributed, and renewable power generation on
a head-to-head competition with their large-sized conventional competitors.
Our decision-makers’ recent love affair with utility-scale renewable power generation also may
not lost long, as when the reality sets in, they will have to grapple with issues of connecting these
plants from resource-rich remote locations to serve distant urban centers, adding the requisite
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flexibility in the grid, and maintaining adequate backup by either conventional plants or storage of
some kind. Obviously, not without their costs which if incorporated in the total cost equation may
make them as expensive as the conventional plants are, if not more.
Fortunately, we do not face anymore the limitations of technology, size, and fuel, and the
typical ways of the past to deliver electricity to consumers. The energy market has turned favourable
lately, opening up a host of opportunities. Small power plants now beat the cost and performance
features of large plants. Renewables, even without government support, are proving competitive.
Battery storage technologies are enabling consumers to reduce, and even eliminate, their
dependence on grid. Electric vehicles (EVs) are opening up new vistas for their dual role as loads
well as supply. Choices are, therefore, in abundance.
We need to make a fundamental transformation in the way we produce and deliver electricity,
essentially turning it on its head, from our current “top-down” to a new “bottom-up” approach. Our
planners must strive to serve the future demand as much as possible at its source, from a nearby
location, or from the central grid whichever proves more feasible. In addition to avoiding a
substantial portion of capital and O&M costs required for keeping excessive and now-unnecessary
reserve generation and transmission facilities, it will also help avoid excessive losses in the system.
These distributed electricity supply options and their deployment will lead to a range of additional
benefits also. Their use will contribute significantly in making the electricity “affordable” for consumers
by eliminating a substantial portion of the costs that may otherwise be incurred in the supply systems.
Distributed supplies will also enhance the “security” of supply in traditional terms and also by reducing
risks of sabotage or terrorism that mega projects will always carry. Distributed systems will also
contribute to “sustainable” energy supplies by virtue of their reliance mostly on natural renewable
energy flows and technologies, skills, and support that can easily be developed within the country.
As aptly noted by the French writer Marcel Proust: “The true voyage of discovery lies not in
seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.” We do not need to go elsewhere for our energy
supplies. Resources are already there in our own backyards and in abundance too. The key issue,
however, is “can our leaders and decision-makers, who are currently trained to look for mega and
grand projects only, re-train their eyes to discover these hidden treasures in the small places
scattered all over the country?”
(Source: Pakistan Today)

THE END OF CHEAP ENERGY?

Farooq Tirmizi (Managing Editor, Profit Magazine)
Sometime in the next two to three years, possibly even this fiscal year, something extraordinary
will happen: for the first time since at least the completion of the Tarbela dam in 1976, a majority of
Pakistan’s electricity generation will come from imported primary fuel sources rather than domestic
ones. Needless to say, this has profound implications for the cost of energy in the country, and the
government’s management of the economy.
The biggest impact of this shift is one that we see crudely playing out on the nightly opinion
talk shows on television: volatility in global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices have a
significant impact on the price of energy in Pakistan.
Of course, the mouth-breathing cretins who constitute the class of people we in Pakistan call
‘television journalists’ (barring a handful of notable exceptions) are engaged in the most meaningless
possible discussion about the topic, so we do not want to dignify them by suggesting that they are
discussing anything remotely important. They are not.
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But there is still a bigger issue at play here: the next decade will be a highly volatile one for
Pakistan when it comes to electricity prices. If we are very, very lucky, global energy prices for oil
and gas will remain relatively low (ideally below $60 a barrel for crude oil) and thus we might be
able to skate through this period relatively unscathed. But to be reliant on a full decade of low
energy prices is a bad place to be as a country, especially one whose public is used to cheap
domestic sources of energy.
This story will explore three questions: how did we get here, what is the outlook for the next
decade, and what can be done to ensure that we get out of this situation?
Rarely for Pakistan, this also appears to be one area where the government and private sector
appear to be on track to solve the problem – provided we do not veer off track. Both the current
Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) led administration and its predecessor Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz
(PML-N) led administration have put in place both policies and projects that appear to be on track to
result in Pakistan’s energy mix getting both cleaner and less import-dependent over the next ten
years.
But that is nearly ten years from now. Today, we still face a difficult situation. Let us take a look
at how we got here, and what it all means.
A very brief history of Pakistan’s electricity sector
The first Pakistani city to get electricity was Lahore, when the Lahore Electric Supply Company
(LESCO) was created in 1912. Karachi got its electricity a year later, in 1913. Electricity generation
back then was mainly thermal power plants reliant on either coal or oil. This remained the dominant
source of electricity in what is now Pakistan for most of the next five decades.
The game changer for electricity in Pakistan – and therefore the whole Pakistani economy – was
the Indus Water Treaty of 1960. At Partition, the matter of which country would get use of how
much of the Indus River System – which existed on both sides of the border – was not settled,
resulting in a dispute between the two countries.
With mediation from the World Bank, India and Pakistan agreed to split the use of the system
under a proposal first developed by the American lawyer, David Eli Lilienthal, with the treaty
signed by President Ayub Khan and Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru at Karachi in September 1960.
Why did this matter? Because it functionally resolved nearly all of the disputes between India
and Pakistan over water and meant that any hydroelectric power project on the Pakistani side of the
border could get international financing without fear of being dragged into international litigation,
or worse, a border conflict. While India and Pakistan have gone to war – including three times after
the treaty was signed – it has never been over water, and the treaty remains unbroken.
Having resolve the territorial conflict over water resources, Pakistan could begin construction
on hydroelectric power projects and almost immediately began working on the Mangla dam, on
which construction started in 1961 and ended in 1965. The much larger, and more ambitious Tarbela
dam was constructed between 1968 and 1976.
It is worth pausing to take stock of just how big an achievement it was for Pakistan to have built
these dams. Tarbela was the largest mud-filled dam in the world, and at the time of its construction
was the fourth largest hydroelectric power project in the world.
But here is the truly mind-blowing fact about these two dams: if every single coal-fired power
project in Thar came online today, all of them combined would produce less electricity than Tarbela
and Mangla. Yes, these two dams that saw most of their construction completed in 1976 (the most
recent extension project on Tarbela was completed in 2018 and another one will be completed by
2024) produce more power now than Thar Coal will produce ten years from now.
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These two dams – and the spree of dam construction that followed over the next two decades –
meant that the bulk of Pakistan’s electricity needs were met by clean, domestically produced
hydroelectric power plants. Yes, in the 1980s, the government began setting up oil-fired power
plants, but the vast majority of Pakistan’s electricity came from water until at least the early 1990s.
At that point, with international financing difficult to procure owing to Pakistan’s poor
relations with the United States, the government instituted a policy that allowed for more private
sector players to set up independent power plants (IPPs) that were reliant mainly on oil. Over the
next decade, this increased Pakistan’s reliance on imported oil as a fuel for its electricity generation.
In the early 2000s, the Musharraf Administration decided to convert at least some of that
thermal power generation capacity from imported oil to domestic natural gas, under the assumption
that Pakistan had abundant domestic reserves. (This, as has been pointed out in this publication on
many previous occasions, was a very faulty assumption.)
As of 2005, the height of the Musharraf-era economic boom, Pakistan derived more than 84% of
its electricity generation from entirely domestic fuel sources, according to Profit’s analysis of data
from the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA). That meant that even as the Iraq
War of 2003 drove up global oil prices, Pakistani consumers of electricity remained largely
unaffected.
Unfortunately, there was a limit to just how much natural gas was available in Pakistan and
around the end of the Musharraf years, Pakistan went from being a gas-surplus country to having a
shortage. That shortage, in turn, meant that the thermal power plants that could run on either
natural gas or furnace oil ended up having to run on oil almost all of the time as the government
scrambled – and failed – to keep the lights on.
Look at the charts for Pakistan’s power generation. The orange part of the bars that represent
oil-fired power starts growing larger in 2006 and keeps growing larger almost uninterrupted until it
peaks in 2017. That period also coincides with rising oil imports, which kept on rising in volumetric
terms during this period, though they declined in dollar terms from 2013 onwards with the sharp
decline in global oil prices.
The sharp rise in reliance on oil coincided with a dramatic rise in oil prices themselves (late 2007
and again in early 2009). Oh, and the rupee’s value collapsed at the same time, which created a
perfect storm for the incoming Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) led government, which did tried to
keep consumers insulated by increasing government subsidies, but the government did not have the
money to do so.
The whole energy industry entered a massive financial crunch as the government’s failure to
pay subsidies meant that power companies could not pay the oil importing companies which in turn
could not pay their international suppliers, which meant that the country frequently ran out of
enough oil to keep the power plants running. The PPP-led government was utterly inept at trying to
resolve the problem that resulted in 12-hour daily power outages even in major cities, and even
longer in rural areas.
So, when Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif came into office in 2013, he knew he had one big
problem to solve: energy.
The Nawaz legacy on energy
The PML-N strategy was reliant one big thing above all else: build lots and lots of power
generation capacity, build nearly all of it on coal-fired plants, and build it all very, very quickly. In
many ways, this strategy worked: between 2013 and 2019, Pakistan’s power generation capacity rose
nearly 64%, from 23,825 megawatts (MW) to 38,995 MW, according to NEPRA data.
In order to get the capacity to rise that quickly, however, the Nawaz Administration offered
overly generous contracts to private sector energy companies and agreed to allow the building of
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power plants that relied on imported coal. [An interesting fact: nearly all of Pakistan’s coal imports
come from South Africa and Indonesia.]
In addition, the Nawaz Administration took a hard-nosed look at Pakistan’s domestic gas
supply and decided that the country needed to begin importing natural gas as well. It allowed
private sector companies to set up LNG import terminals. That meant that the thermal power plants
that could no longer run on domestic gas could now run on imported gas rather than imported oil.
This change had the effect of both reducing Pakistan’s import bill (even LNG is cheaper than furnace
oil) and reducing carbon emissions (burning gas emits less carbon dioxide than burning oil).
Both of these policies meant that Pakistan’s imports of furnace oil dramatically declined, but its
imports of LNG and coal went up. The overall energy import bill for electricity generation declined
by about 36% between 2012 and 2020, mainly because both coal and LNG are cheaper than oil, and
because Pakistan was able to secure a very good price on LNG from Qatar.
The Nawaz Administration was criticised heavily for the high price it paid for that increase in
power generation capacity, including by this publication. However, it appears that much of that
capacity is already being used. While power generation capacity rose by 64% over the past eight
years, actual power generation rose by over 46% during that same period, suggesting that bulk of
that new capacity is being utilised.
And while the import bill for Pakistan’s power generation has declined even as the country’s
reliance on imported fuels has gone up, that is largely the result of a relatively benign global energy
price environment. That may last a while longer, but it cannot last forever, and if global prices start
to rise again, Pakistan’s energy bills will be much more vulnerable to rising with them than ever
before.
It is a classic Faustian bargain: a rapid increase in electricity generation capacity that is cheap
for now, but will likely start to get expensive later.
However, the Nawaz Administration did one other thing that will likely help the country’s
energy system: it began work on the Dasu dam, the first near-Tarbela-sized dam to be constructed in
Pakistan in nearly 50 years. While the Nawaz Administration ultimately halted work on Dasu in
2017, the Imran Khan Administration was able to revive the project when it came into office a year
later, and it is now on track for completion by 2025.
But more on why Dasu matters later. For now, let us examine the consequences of this deal with
the devil.
A rough decade ahead
As a result of the increased reliance on both imported coal and LNG, Pakistan now generates
just over 52% of its electricity from purely domestic sources as of the fiscal year ending June 30, 2021,
according to Profit’s analysis of NEPRA data. That is down from over 84% in 2005, and 71% as
recently as 2012. This stark decline in domestic energy sources makes Pakistan more vulnerable to
both changes in global energy prices as well as increases the negative consequences of the
government’s poor decision-making on trying to control the currency exchange rate.
A reliance on imported energy is not inherently a bad thing. If the economy can reliably
produce electricity using imported fuels, and its electricity grid can continue to serve the economy’s
growth needs, imported fuel might even be a good thing. But the problem is that imported fuels
makes changes in prices something the government of Pakistan cannot control, which means they
will tend to get panicky and make all sorts of bad decisions about economic management.
How will this play out? Picture the following scenario. Global energy prices start to rise, which
– given the level of dependence the country has right now on imported energy – will mean a
considerable strain on the country’s current account balance. That strain will start to affect the value
of the rupee. The government will try to protect the value of the rupee by borrowing more money
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from foreign lenders and simultaneously either decreasing taxes on petrol or increasing subsidies on
electricity.
Both of these will have the effect of exacerbating the fiscal deficit, leaving the government more
vulnerable financially even as it has taken on more debt obligations in US dollars. Meanwhile, the
government’s deteriorating fiscal health will mean that foreign lenders will stop wanting to lend
more money to the government of Pakistan, which will decrease its ability to keep the rupee stable.
That means the rupee’s value will start falling, just as the loan payments to those foreign lenders will
come due.
Repaying those loans will both further decrease the value of the rupee, and cause an increase in
inflation as the rise of global energy prices will be exacerbated by the rise in the price of the dollar.
Except instead of happening gradually, this will now all happen suddenly, in the span of one
calendar year.
Because the government will have artificially held the rupee’s price up, when it eventually has
to let go, it will fall both faster and deeper than it would have had the government simply allowed it
to happen gradually. Inflation has a way of collecting its due, and there is nothing the government
can do to prevent that from happening.
Of course, the government could try not being stupid and when energy prices rise, simply pass
them on to consumers. But that would mean that the screeching banshees on television would start
yelling themselves hoarse about the “petrol bomb” or “crushing inflation”, which would scare the
government into doing precisely the thing that will make the problem worse.
Here is where things get truly scary: in order to manage the fiscal deficit, one of the first things
the government cuts when energy prices start to rise is the development budget. That is where the
money for the construction of hydroelectric power projects like the Dasu Dam (and hopefully the
Diamer-Bhasha Dam) will come from. And those are the key to solving this mess.
How the problem gets solved
If the government can be patient and for once – just one energy price cycle – not panic and try to
subsidise electricity unnecessarily, it will find itself with a problem that has fixed itself on the other
side. Because a combination of the energy policies of the past four administrations means that the
next decade will see an additional 20,453 MW of power generation capacity come online, in a mix
that is both cleaner and less import-dependent than the current mix.
You see, the one good thing the PPP-led Zardari Administration did was to finalise a policy that
allows for the construction of private sector hydroelectric power plants. The Nawaz and Imran Khan
Administrations have started and continued the construction of the public sector Dasu Dam
hydroelectric power project. And the Nawaz and Imran Administrations’ facilitation of the Thar
Coal power projects means that that domestic source of energy will finally start to contribute a
meaningful percentage of the nation’s electricity supply.
Of that 20,453 MW, over 10,600 MW are from hydroelectric power projects, the two biggest of
which are the government’s Dasu Dam and the fifth extension of the Tarbela Dam. These two
projects combined will add 5,730 MW in power generation capacity, with the bulk of that coming
from the 4,320 MW Dasu Dam project. The remainder will come from smaller scale private sector
hydroelectric power projects.
Nearly 5,000 MW of Thar coal-fired power projects will also come online over the next few
years, which will change the make up of the country’s coal-fired power generation capacity.
Currently, less than 20% of coal-fired power in Pakistan comes from domestic coal. Over the next
decade, that number will rise to nearly 56% of coal-fired power generation capacity.
In short, if the government manages to not delay the construction of its hydroelectric power
projects – and does nothing that will prevent the private sector hydroelectric and Thar coal projects
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from reaching completion – the country will see its dependence on imported fuels decline and the
proportion of clean energy in its overall power generation capacity rise, despite the increased coal-
fired power generation.
For that to happen, however, it is absolutely critical that the government not panic whenever
global energy prices next start to rise. The prize here is a reduction in the country’s dependence on
imported energy and for that to happen, the government will have to ensure that it does not sacrifice
its long term ability to reduce the problem (construction of Dasu and Tarbela’s extension) for its
short-term needs (decreasing the development budget to pay for increased subsidies on electricity).
Will that happen? Our initial inclination would be to say no. One can almost always count on
the government of Pakistan to make the panicked, short-term decision. But then again, the
government seems to have made at least enough of the kind of decisions to have placed itself on the
verge of fixing a long-term problem.
So maybe there is hope they will not get distracted near the finish line? One can always dream.
(Source: Profit)

RENEWABLE ENERGY, RENEWED PAKISTAN

Dr. Sardar Mohazzam (Managing Director National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority – NEECA)
The Energy-Climate Nexus in Pakistan Climate Change has reshaped both the availability and
utilization of natural resources in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Resource competition for economic development has compelled developed and developing
countries to take corrective measures jointly. Under the Paris agreement, member states have
committed to take actions to protect the planet from the impacts of climate change, so as to limit the
rise in global temperature by 2°C. This year, the global climate change agenda in the form of COP26,
is focusing on transitions towards clean and renewable energy technologies, to revisit the
development priorities for sustainable economic growth.
Pakistan has been categorized as one of the top 10 climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
The country’s energy sector stands at the top of the list, with a 51 percent share in the greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions. This translates into projected emissions of 1,603 MT CO2-equivalent by 2030,
out of which 898 MT CO2-equivalent would be from the energy sector. With COVID-19 slowing
down economic growth, the envisioned seven percent gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate
may aggravate, with a downward trajectory.
Pakistan’s Energy Status
The primary energy supply in Pakistan has been 84 million tons of oil equivalents (Mtoe) in
2019. It has decreased by 2.9 percent as compared to the previous year, owing to a major decrease in
supplies of oil and Liquefied Piped Gas (LPG). The share of oil and gas in energy supplies stood
more than 70 percent. The final energy consumption is recorded at 55 Mtoe.
This implies losses of nearly 35 percent, in conversion to final energy used. With Pakistan
transitioning through a major economic transformation, the final energy consumption is forecasted
to be 140 Mtoe by 2030. The existing GHG emissions trend demands rapid transitions in energy
systems and enhancement of the share of renewables.
Pakistan: A Global Champion
It is a fact that Pakistan’s contributions in the global GHG emission scenario is less than one
percent. However, in light of its commitments in the global climate change context, the country is
making drastic changes in its energy system. In this context, Pakistan’s eorts for climate change
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adaptation and mitigation have been acknowledged globally. For example, Pakistan hosted the
‘World Environment Day’ this year. Pakistan has been declared as a ‘Global Champion’ for the
theme on ‘Investment and Finance’, for the high-level dialogue (HLD) on energy transition.
Pakistan’s Energy Future Outlook Pakistan’s energy future outlook would be based on three
basic components i.e. energy access, renewable energy, and energy efficiency. Pakistan has set
targets to ensure 100 percent electricity access by 2030. As far as the share of the renewable energy
mix is concerned, Pakistan has planned to add 30 percent renewable energy resources to the total
energy mix. However, recently, Prime Minister of Pakistan set a new ambitious target to enhance the
share of renewable energy by 60 percent, by 2030.
Similarly, the country is aiming to double the rate of energy efficiency measures by 2030. In order
to combat climate change impacts, informed decision-making in policies and plans for the transition
towards clean and sustainable energy resources in Pakistan, is integral. The country is targeting to
decarbonize the energy system, with the promulgation of the National Electricity Policy, and most
importantly, the Alternate Renewable Energy Policy. To meet the future energy demands in the
country, it is ensured to align all policy measures with the global sustainable development agenda.
For example, the Renewable Energy (ARE) policy (2019) focuses to decarbonize the energy
system and introduce new renewable energy technologies to enhance the share of renewable energy
generation capacity to up to 20 percent by 2025, and 30 percent by 2030. The National Electricity
Policy (NEP-2021) targets to ensure transparency, development of local fuels, energy efficiency, and
more reliance on clean energy. Similarly, the integrated generation capacity expansion plan (IGCEP
2018-40) to support energy security, affordability, and sustainability of electricity provision, would
be helpful in the implementation of the NEP.
In addition, the implementation of the National Electric Vehicle Policy (2020) would help to
curb the use of fossil fuels in Pakistan. At present, 34 percent of energy, mostly obtained through
imported oil, is used in the transport sector. To achieve the targets of a robust electric vehicle market
having a 30 percent share by 2030, integrated eorts are required from all key stakeholders at the
national and provincial levels. The provision of electricity through renewable energy technologies
and Energy Efficiency and Conservation (EE&C) measures for standards of the electric vehicle (EV)
charging stations, would be crucial to achieving the long-term goals of the EV policy.
National Energy Efficiency and Conservation Act 2016 is the key document to institutionalize
the efficient use of energy resources in Pakistan. In this reference, NEECA Strategic Plan 2020-23
aims to save 3 MTOE of primary energy supply in the next three years. This will prove to be a great
contribution to introduce new technologies in the energy systems of Pakistan, as well as reduce
carbon footprints. If energy-saving is carried out with an accelerated energy efficiency of 3.5 percent,
it would directly reduce emissions by 6.4 MT CO2 during this period. The recently approved
National Electricity Policy 2021 depicts the compliance of EE&C measures set out by NEECA, and
the promotion of incentive-based demand participation. Implementation of these policies and plans
will alter the energy landscape of Pakistan, from heavy reliance on fossil fuels, to clean and
affordable energy sources. About USD five billion can be saved in the next 20 years in potential fuels
and other costs, if Pakistan meets its renewable energy targets by 2030, according to the World Bank.
A number of renewable energy projects related to solar, wind, and bio-energy, have been
implemented to increase the share of renewable energy in the final energy mix, in order to reach the
targets set out for 2030. Policy actions such as net metering regulations by NEPRA to purchase
additional electricity from consumers, would encourage more generation from solar resources. The
addition of renewable energy technologies like wind, bio-energy, and hydrogen energy, would help
the cause for more economic benefits and eco-friendly energy supplies.
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The Power of Energy Efficiency and Conservation

EE&C has emerged as an opportunity to address the energy and climate challenges faced by the
country. About 10-15 percent of the primary energy supply in Pakistan can be saved through EE&C
measures. Pakistan can tap this energy-saving potential through EE&C measures in energy-intensive
sectors i.e. industry, building, and transport. Likewise, a huge potential to invest exists in retrofitting
programs, mandatory energy audits, accredited labouratories, and awareness programs.
The operationalization and implementation of EE&C has achieved considerable priority on the
government’s agenda. Regulations such as appliance standardization, energy audits, and building codes,
are appreciable but, it would require sucient technical and financial capacity to implement the EE&C
agenda in true spirit. The potential for investment in EE&C projects for the next three years stands at
PKR 7.4 billion. All EE&C measures are part of Pakistan’s NDC commitments to take mitigation actions,
so as to ensure energy sector emission reductions by 2030. According to an estimate, around USD 18
billion investment opportunities exist for EE&C, for the next decade in Pakistan.
The Future is ‘Clean’
The shift towards clean technologies is inevitable. Targets to enhance the share of renewables
and double the rate of EE measures by 2030, are important for Pakistan. Consistency in
implementation of agreed plans for the rapid transition towards renewable energy sources and
EE&C for a thriving eco-system, are requisite. It demands more drastic, well-coordinated, and long-
term eorts, as the demand for energy is increasing with every passing day. Given the urgency of
climate change impacts, Pakistan is geared towards decarbonizing, decentralizing, and digitizing,
with regards to the energy sector.
The de-carbonization of the energy system will enable Pakistan to fulfil its Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDC) commitments of 20 percent reduction in GHG emissions (from
business as usual), by 2030. Under the Paris agreement, the channelling of funds from Green Climate
Fund (GCF), Global Environmental Facility (GEF), and other multilateral, bilateral as well as
developed countries, will be vital to achieving the goal set by the country in accordance with the
SDGs. At the national level, importance of green financing facilities such as Green Banking
Guidelines (GBGs), must be realized, given the changing dynamics of energy sector priorities and
climate change impacts in Pakistan. The development of a mechanism for innovative financing,
green investment, incentive schemes for energy efficiency measures, and fossil fuel subsidy reforms,
will be instrumental in achieving the global, as well as the local agenda for sustainable development.
(Source: UNDP)
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Foreign Policy and Relations

GEO-ECONOMICS AND NATIONAL PROSPERITY
The way forward is challenging yet achievable
Dr Sadia Khanum (Assistant Professor of International Relations at Iqra University Islamabad)
The world has gone through a series of watershed moments in the last few years, clearly
reshaping contemporary politics among nations. The new war theatre between states is the global
financial markets and unlike traditional warfare tactics and strategies, nations applying the proxies
of commercial contracts to create their monopoly over other competitors. The global pandemic has
compelled the state to intervene, in what is traditionally no more its domain, to stave off the worst
effects of COVID-19 and unconventional security threats are the new concern for the world. The
shift from geopolitics to geo-economics is relatively a new phenomenon that urges us to deliberate
beyond the classical geopolitical conception of global power politics.
The structural changes in favour of this shift from geopolitics to geo-economics have left no
country unaffected and Pakistan is no exception. Historically speaking, the concept of promoting and
safeguarding national interests through economic interdependence and alliance building with like-
minded states near and far is not a new thing for Pakistan. The founding father’s vision of Pakistan
encompassed the idea of interdependence and peaceful coexistence. In his message to the nation on the
occasion of the inauguration of the Pakistan Broadcasting Service on August 15, 1947, M A Jinnah
stated: “Our objective should be peace within and peace without.” It indicates that Jinnah envisioned
peace as the ultimate solution to all the problems of a newly independent country. He further stated,
“We have no aggressive designs against anyone. We stand by the United Nations Charter and will
gladly make our contribution to the peace and prosperity of the world.” To materialise his vision
Jinnah even proposed a joint defence to the arch-rival India to shun conflict and animosity between the
two neighbours. The Constitution of Pakistan in its Article 40 advances Jinnah’s vision of peaceful
Pakistan that could, “preserve and strengthen fraternal relations among Muslim countries based on
Islamic unity, support the common interests of the peoples of Asia, Africa and Latin America,
promote international peace and security, foster goodwill and friendly relations among all nations
and encourage the settlement of international disputes by peaceful means.”
The first few years of independent Pakistan were full of turbulence and digression from
Jinnah’s vision as the sole focus of the leadership was to project the country as a geostrategically ally
of the West to fulfil its major economic and defence needs. Pakistan joined SEATO and Baghdad
Pact (later CENTO) in a bid to protect its territorial integrity and strengthen its defence against
India. However, joining those alliances opened new avenues of economic cooperation and
infrastructure development for Pakistan.
The structural dictates of bipolar order during the Cold War could not break the resolve of
Pakistan to connect the world through the common market and cultural bonds. The formation of
Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) in 1964 exhibited Pakistan’s idea of development and
socio-economic interdependence among Iran, Pakistan and Turkey. RCD provided a platform to
forward many infrastructure building projects of road and rail connectivity. RCD became stagnant
because of the domestic political and economic turmoil in member states but the expansion of RCD
in 1991 enabled broader regional cooperation under the new name Economic Cooperation
Organisation (ECO).
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Pakistan welcomed the initiative of SAARC by South Asian countries’ leadership to promote
and facilitate better connectivity and strengthen trade ties in the region. Unfortunately, SAARC
couldn’t deliver as per expectations because of India Pakistan rivalries over Kashmir dispute.
Pakistan never stopped protecting and projecting its geopolitical interests in the region
throughout the 1980s and 1990s. The unipolar world order along with internal political and
economic difficulties set a geopolitical imperative for Pakistan. The first decade of the 21st century
didn’t change the situation much as being the coalition partner and front line state in the global ‘War
on Terror’ Islamabad had to continue applying the same security parameters to design its foreign
policy vis-ˆ-vis near and far neighbours.
The rise of China has changed the situation in favour of countries willing to quit the
conventional security paradigm and want to reshape their narrative of security, growth and
development. China’s BRI initiative of reviving the historic Silk Road route has provided a new
hope of inclusive growth and development for all. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a
pilot project of BRI and through this project, Pakistan would be able to avail new opportunities of
economic prosperity. The reflection of the new narrative of inclusive growth and development can
be seen in Pakistani civil and military leadership’s initiatives toward (seemingly undeclared) zero
problem neighbourhood policy. Normalisation of ties with India is one major step towards realising
the shift from geopolitics to geo-economics. General Bajwa’s call for “burying the hatchet with India
to make peace” reflect the realisation on the part of the strongest stakeholders in security and
geopolitics that it’s the time to re-examine the causes of Pakistan’s economic miseries. The
normalisation of relations with India can open India’s 1.3 billion strong market for Pakistan’s
struggling economy. Imagine a South Asia where India and Pakistan stop spending the big chunk of
their budgets on defence and start spending the big share on peoples’ welfare and prosperity.
Prime Minister Imran Khan has also been very keen to promote the changed narrative by taking
initiative to facilitate Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and convincing the businesses of their new
geo-economic vision for the country. IK’s recent visit to Uzbekistan was also part of the new policy
to promote trade and cultural ties with Central Asian republics. Uzbekistan and Pakistan agreed to
finalise a preferential trade agreement to increase the bilateral trade and to establish and upgrade
the transportation setup like rail links via Afghanistan. Pakistan could be a major transit trade
destination for landlocked Central Asia but it is only possible if Islamabad keeps its focus on
facilitating connectivity and improving security conditions at home and with neighbouring
countries. The importance of a peaceful Afghanistan in this regard is manifold since peace and
prosperity in Pakistan is conditioned with peace and prosperity in Afghanistan and that is the real
hard task ahead. The US forces’ departure from Kabul, without any permanent solution, has created
an uncertain situation in the region. The Ghani government in Kabul is unable to stop the Taliban’s
advances. Pakistan needs to be extra vigilant on the Afghanistan front as repeating any past mistake
could be fatal for newly defined national interests.
The World Bank Doing Business 2020 report placed Pakistan at 108 which means Pakistan is
lagging behind its South Asian neighbours, even Nepal is better ranked in the report. Major reforms
in bureaucracy, taxation (to mainstream the informal businesses), sustainable infrastructure
development and the energy sector are essential to create an investment friendly environment for
domestic and foreign investors. Government should get the Pakistani diaspora onboard and
encourage their involvement in the economy. Realising the geo-economics paradigm also depends
on the continuity and transparency of political institutions and strict practice of the separation of
powers. Extremist tendencies should be mitigated through a chain of reforms in society overall. A
progressive, tolerant and civilised societal behaviour can lead the country towards sustainable
economic development.
(Source: The News Supplement)
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US-PAKISTAN RELATIONS
Amidst the withdrawal from Afghanistan
Madiha Afzal (David M. Rubenstein Fellow - Foreign Policy)
Six months into the Biden administration, amid the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and
increasing violence on the ground there, the US-Pakistan relationship stands in uneasy limbo.
Pakistan has indicated repeatedly that it wants the relationship to be defined more broadly than
with regard to Afghanistan — especially based on “geo-economics,” its favoured current catch-all
for trade, investment, and connectivity — and has insisted that it doesn’t want failures in
Afghanistan to be blamed on Pakistan. At the same time the US has made it clear that it expects
Pakistan to “do more” on Afghanistan in terms of pushing the Taliban toward a peace agreement
with the Afghan government. Pakistan responds that it has exhausted its leverage over the Taliban.
The result is a relationship with the Biden administration that has been defined by Pakistan’s
western neighbour, as has been the case for US-Pakistan relations for much of the last 40 years. And
the situation in Afghanistan may define the future of the relationship as well.
WHAT PAKISTAN WANTS
Pakistan’s official stance is that it would prefer a peaceful outcome in Afghanistan, some sort of
a power-sharing arrangement reached after an intra-Afghan peace deal. Many are skeptical of this
given Pakistan’s support of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in the 1990s, and the sanctuary the
group later found in Pakistan. But Pakistan argues that a protracted civil war in Afghanistan would
be disastrous for it, on three dimensions: First, insecurity from Afghanistan would spill over into
Pakistan. Second, Pakistan fears that this would set up space for the resurgence of the Tehrik-e-
Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a group responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistani civilians and
attacking the country’s army, security forces, and politicians. Third, this would increase the amount
of refugee flows to Pakistan (which has hosted millions of Afghan refugees since the 1990s,
including 3 million at present), which it can’t afford. These are well-founded fears.
Pakistan is less clear about what a Taliban military victory would mean for it, but discusses it in
the same vein as the possibility of civil war in Afghanistan. The implication, presumably, is that the
road to a comprehensive Taliban military victory would be violent, setting up many of the same
concerns identified above. As part of the Extended “Troika” on Peaceful Settlement in Afghanistan
— which also includes the US, China, and Russia — Pakistan has signed a statement saying a
Taliban emirate would be unacceptable to it.
What Pakistan doesn’t discuss openly is this central tension: Pakistan has long treated the
Afghan Taliban as friends — preferring them to Pashtun nationalists (which it viewed as
threatening, fearing that they would mobilize Pashtuns on the Pakistani side of the border as well)
and to the current Afghan government (which it sees as friendly with India) — while the Afghan
Taliban’s friend and ideological twin, the TTP, has posed an existential threat to Pakistan and killed
tens of thousands of Pakistanis. This tension is clearly making Pakistan nervous. Pakistan routed the
TTP in military operations starting in 2014, but many of them sought refuge across the border in
Afghanistan, and have been regrouping since last year. The Afghan Taliban’s potential rise in
Afghanistan will almost certainly embolden the TTP, and threatens to engulf Pakistan in the kind of
violence it experienced between 2007 and 2015. There’s some speculation that Pakistan could work
out a deal with the Afghan Taliban to constrain the TTP, but even if it comes to pass, there is a real
question of how effective it would be.
This tension is not apparent to Pakistan’s public. You’ll see Pakistanis being supportive of the
Afghan Taliban and against the TTP, because the Pakistani state has obfuscated the connections
between the two groups. The only time top officials have admitted to these recently is behind closed
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doors, when the army chief and the head of the military intelligence agency Inter-Services
Intelligence (ISI) called the Afghan Taliban and the TTP “two faces of the same coin.”
Amid the increased violence in Afghanistan, with fingers being pointed at Pakistan’s
relationship with Taliban, Pakistan has been trying to distance itself from the group. Prime Minister
Imran Khan recently said that Pakistan doesn’t speak for the Taliban, nor is it responsible for it.
Pakistan argues that a “rushed” US withdrawal before peace talks has set the stage for the current
situation. Khan has said that the Taliban’s battlefield victories render moot any leverage Pakistan
could have over it. He’s even disingenuously argued that the Taliban are hiding among Afghan
refugees in Pakistan.
Yet the world remains skeptical, amid reports of purported Taliban fighters being treated across
the border in Pakistan, and statements such as those made by its interior minister, who recently said
that the Taliban’s families live in Pakistan.
WHAT AMERICA WANTS
From America’s perspective, the main ask is for Pakistan to exercise its leverage in pushing the
Taliban to reduce violence and toward an intra-Afghan peace deal. The second is the potential for
counterterrorism cooperation in the post-withdrawal landscape. But a checkered past colors the
relationship. For Washington, part of the reason it lost the war against the Taliban is because the
Taliban found support in Pakistan, including sanctuary for the Haqqani network and the Quetta
shura. That Osama bin Laden was found in Abbottabad in 2011 eroded any remaining trust from the
US side. Yet as matters stand, America still needs Pakistan’s help in the region, especially as it
withdraws from Afghanistan. And Pakistan largely delivered on the Trump administration’s main
request, to bring the Taliban to the table for talks with the United States.
There is some question of what US discussions with Pakistan for counterterrorism cooperation
have entailed — “bases” in Pakistan are a nonstarter in Islamabad, and a question that may not even
have been asked, though it occupied the domestic conversation for a time. Yet intelligence sharing
and other forms of cooperation are presumably all on the table and being discussed behind closed
doors.
The sticking points from the US side, however, remain: a wariness about trusting Pakistan, and
a desire for Islamabad to put pressure on the Taliban. Pakistan argues the requests to “do more”
from the US side are never-ending.
THE TERMS OF ENGAGEMENT
President Joe Biden still hasn’t — somewhat inexplicably — called Prime Minister Khan. But
US-Pakistan engagement continues, mainly on Afghanistan. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and
Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi have spoken multiple times. US Special Representative for
Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad continues his visits to Islamabad and Rawalpindi,
including one in July. Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns visited Pakistan in a secret trip
that was later made public. Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa has received multiple
calls from officials in Washington, including from Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. The countries’
national security advisors have met twice in person, and the ISI chief visited Washington just last
week. A new quadrilateral relationship has been announced between America, Pakistan,
Afghanistan, and Uzbekistan. The US has also delivered millions of doses of the Moderna vaccine to
Pakistan to aid its pandemic response. Yet despite all this, there has been no movement on intra-
Afghan peace talks beyond a set of inconclusive meetings in Doha in July — and the situation in
Afghanistan is worsening rapidly. As it deteriorates, it appears the US is in wait-and-see posture in
terms of the relationship with Pakistan.
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STARK CHOICES
As for the future, it is becoming obvious that Pakistan will find it impossible to separate itself
from what happens in Afghanistan. As the Taliban gains ground, fingers are pointed toward
Pakistan’s relationship with the militants. Whether Pakistan likes it or not, whether this is unfair
given Afghan, US, and Russian responsibility for bad outcomes in Afghanistan, the reality is that the
world sees a Taliban advance as a product of Pakistan’s long-alleged double game. This means that
there will be little to no appetite in Washington to engage with Pakistan on other matters going
ahead if Afghanistan is embroiled in violence or in Taliban hands. (Pakistan’s closeness with China
won’t help it either, in an era of increasing US confrontation with Beijing.)
If Pakistan truly means what it says about wanting a peaceful Afghanistan, then it is time for it
to exert all the effort it can to force the Taliban to cease violence and come to the table for peace. No
other country’s interests would be better served — in terms of domestic security, international
standing, and the relationship with America — by such an effort than Pakistan’s own. The Taliban
will be recalcitrant given its newly garnered international legitimacy, beginning with the US-Taliban
deal and continuing with its current travels around the globe, and its recent battlefield victories. Yet
Pakistan has no other choice but to put pressure on it, for its own sake, and certainly for its
neighbour next door. Pakistan’s alternative — betting on the Afghan Taliban while at the same time
planning to tackle a resurgent TTP at home — will be disastrous, both for itself and for Afghanistan.
(Source: Brookings)

PAKISTAN STREAM GAS PIPELINE

Russia’s Key to South Asia?
Sergey Sukhankin (Senior Fellow at The Jamestown Foundation)
Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov and Pakistan’s ambassador to Moscow, Shafqat Ali
Khan, signed a revised agreement on May 28 that initiates the construction of the planned Pakistan
Stream Gas Pipeline (PSGP). Formerly known as the North-South Gas Pipeline, this infrastructural
mega-project (1,100 kilometers in length) is expected to cost up to $2.5 billion and should be
completed by 2023. The pipeline will secure the delivery of 12.3 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural
gas per year from the liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in Karachi and Gwadar to the large
north-central city of Lahore. Importantly, this project will be the first such large-scale economic
initiative between Moscow and Islamabad undertaken since the mid-1970s.
From an economic point of view, the PSGP promises to be highly beneficial to Pakistan. On the
one hand, as a net importer of energy, Pakistan will be able to obtain new steady sources of natural
gas indispensable for its economy and transport this gas to the densely populated industrialized
north. At the same time, the project will enable the country—whose main industries are still
dependent on the consumption of coal—to take a decisive step away from the use of this dirty and
incredibly carbon-intensive fuel, gradually replacing it with relatively more ecologically sustainable
natural gas.
For Russia, the future gas pipeline is also expected to yield significant value. During the
construction stage, the main corporate beneficiary will be the Eurasian Pipeline Consortium (ETK),
an entity controlled by Alexei Karmanov, a close associate of the notorious Rotenberg brothers, who
are themselves close to President Vladimir Putin. But as stated by Igor Yushkov, from the Financial
University Under the Government of the Russian Federation, aside from those direct (construction-
related) profits, Russia should expect to receive substantial indirect benefits. Specifically, he argued
that “the greater the volumes of natural gas Pakistan will be consuming—even if it [gas] does not
come directly from Russia—the better it will be for Russia. […] This pipeline, which envisages the
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building of LNG terminals will attract foreign players, and Qatar in particular, which will decrease
competition between Russian and Qatari companies on both European and Asian LNG markets.” At
the same time, Yushkov assumes that Qatar’s growing involvement with LNG projects in South and
Southeast Asia (and Pakistan in particular) would effectively help Russia to increase its presence on
the Chinese market via the Power of Siberia pipeline.
In turn, Boris Volkhonsky, from the Institute of Asian and African Countries at Lomonosov
Moscow State University, linked the strategic importance of the project to Pakistan’s key role in the
Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to Volkhonsky, the PSGP is to become a notable
milestone and a new step that is to usher in a range of new economic prospects and opportunities
for Russia in South Asia. He particularly highlighted the fact that the project might result in a
breakthrough in economic ties between Moscow and Islamabad, which had stagnated for decades
(incidentally, there are no direct flights between Moscow and Islamabad or Karachi): cooperation on
the PSGP, Vokhonsky predicted, may subsequently spread to joint collabouration in other strategic
areas or sectors.
That said, from an economic/business prospective, it appears that, while the project is
beneficial to both countries, it is Pakistan (and potentially third parties) that is likely to receive most
of the economic benefits. This stems from three main factors. First, the current version of the
agreement signed by Moscow and Islamabad is essentially a reworked version of a previous
document that had been much more beneficial to Russia. Now, the Russian side stands to receive
only a 26 percent stake in the PSGP (initially, Russia expected to receive 85 percent), whereas the
Pakistani side will retain a controlling stake (74 percent) in the project. Second, although the Russian
side will be in charge of providing all the necessary materials and specialized equipment
indispensable for the actual building of the pipeline, the Pakistani government managed to hammer
out one crucial concession: the entire construction process will be supervised by an independent
Pakistani-based company, which will substantially boost Pakistan’s influence at each and every
development stage. Third, the vast bulk of the gas transported via the pipeline will likely come from
Qatar, which will further strengthen Qatar’s role in the Pakistani energy sector.
Aside from its economic/business aspect, the PSGP also has clear geopolitical implications. On
the one hand, it signals Russia’s growing involvement in South Asia; and on the one hand, it points
to some notable transformations currently taking place in this macro-region. Of particular interest in
this regard is a recent interview by the former foreign secretary to the government of India, Kanwal
Sibal. The retired Indian official admitted that formally, his country has no reason to oppose or
object to Russia’s attempts to secure economic opportunities in Pakistan. And he underscored
Moscow’s skillful diplomatic maneuvering and its ability to avoid potential confrontations with both
India and Pakistan as well as China, noting that the above-mentioned infrastructural project is not a
part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). True as this may be, the ongoing dynamic
within the India-Russia-Pakistan triangle is nevertheless not favourable for New Delhi; and the
PSGP project—though not directly aiming to challenge India and/or jeopardize its posture in the
region—is rather symptomatic of that larger trend. Notably, last spring’s (March 18) international
“extended troika” conference on Afghanistan, which was held in Moscow, assembled
representatives from the United States, Russia, China and Pakistan but left out India (even though
the latter has important strategic interests in Afghanistan). This omission caused a strong negative
reaction in New Delhi.
The Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline will surely become an important instrument for Russia to
reactivate the South Asian vector of its foreign policy. The project’s purpose is not to reap immediate
economic benefits; it is more strategic in nature. While Russian relations with India are cooling,
Moscow is likely to boost ties with Pakistan—where another, in addition to the PSGP, area of
cooperation is likely to become nuclear energy, which was explicitly mentioned by Russian Foreign
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Minister Sergei Lavrov, during his recent visit to Islamabad. Such an expansion of relations with
Pakistan will allow Russia to gain a more solid foothold in the South Asian part of China’s BRI, thus
opening up a range of new lucrative opportunities for Moscow.
(Source: Eurasia Daily Monitor)

THE KHAN-PUTIN CALL IS A DEFINING MOMENT IN PAK-RUSSIAN

RELATIONS
Andrew Korybko (Moscow-based American political analyst)
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to call Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on
August 22 was a defining moment in their countries’ bilateral relations, which have been rapidly
improving over the past few years. According to the Kremlin’s official readout of the call:
“While discussing the situation in Afghanistan, both sides stressed the importance of
maintaining peace and security in the country, preventing violence and establishing an inter-Afghan
dialogue that would facilitate the formation of an inclusive government that takes into account the
interests of all segments of the population.
It was agreed to coordinate approaches to the Afghan issue both in bilateral and multilateral
formats. At the same time, it was noted that it would be appropriate to use the capabilities of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in ensuring regional stability and the fight against terrorism
and the drug threat.
The parties touched upon several topics on the bilateral agenda, including the development of
trade and economic ties, and the implementation of joint projects in the energy and humanitarian
spheres. Russian-Pakistani contacts at various levels will be intensified.”
This represents the first-ever tacit acknowledgment that Russia has come to rely on Pakistan to
advance its interests, which in this context relate to stabilising Afghanistan after the Taliban’s
lightning-fast takeover earlier this month. This suggests that their developing partnership has finally
begun to take on strategic dimensions.
The Afghan Crisis is arguably the top one in the world right now, but it’s only Pakistan and
Russia that have any realistic chance to shape events in that country through their respective ties
with the Taliban. Islamabad’s ones are well-known and cultivated over the decades while Moscow’s
are relatively new and explained at length in my latest analysis for the Russian International Affairs
Council titled “Russia & The Taliban: From Narrative Challenges To Opportunities”.
In short, one of the largely overlooked outcomes of the recent Russian-Pakistani partnership
was Islamabad facilitating Moscow’s ties with the same group that the Kremlin still officially
regards as terrorists but with whom it’s nevertheless pragmatically engaging in the interests of
regional peace and security. The Eurasian Great Power considers the Taliban to be an anti-ISIS
bulwark and hopes that it’ll stabilise Afghanistan as soon as possible so as to unlock its trans-
regional connectivity potential and estimated $3 trillion worth of minerals.
The first-mentioned objective refers to February’s agreement to build the Pakistan-Afghanistan-
Uzbekistan (PAKAFUZ) railway that Russia can then utilise to finally reach the Indian Ocean like
it’s aimed to do for centuries already. As for the second, it wouldn’t just enrich Russia, but would
provide much-needed revenue for the Taliban to redistribute throughout its impoverished society
and reinvest in reconstructing Afghanistan. These objectives are mutually beneficial and
complementary, hence why they’re being prioritised.
They can’t be accomplished without Pakistan’s support, however, though Islamabad obviously
shares their aims. The South Asian state wants to utilise PAKAFUZ in order to serve as the Central
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Asian Republic’s (CARs) access point to the global marketplace and also hopes for Afghanistan to
sustainably rebuild itself after the war finally ends. The influence that Pakistan and Russia
nowadays have with the Taliban can ideally be leveraged to facilitate the group’s goal of assembling
an inclusive government and ensuring that it cuts its ties with terrorists.
Such an outcome wouldn’t be the end point of the Russian-Pakistani partnership, but the
beginning of the entirely new era of bilateral relations that they’re both striving towards. Russia
aspires to incorporate Pakistan into its Greater Eurasian Partnership, to which end Afghanistan must
first be stabilised and PAKAFUZ constructed. Upon those interconnected objectives being met,
Moscow can then diversify economic ties with Islamabad beyond their Pakistan Stream Gas Pipeline
flagship project and into the commercial sphere.
For this to happen, Russia and Pakistan must work more closely than ever before in putting
their influence with the Taliban to good use, which explains why President Putin initiated his call
with Prime Minister Khan. This symbolically showed that Moscow is deferring to Islamabad’s
expertise in this field in order to increase the chances of unlocking the mutual opportunities that
they hope to tap into via Kabul. It also symbolically shows that these two former rivals have truly
put the past behind them and are ready to chart a new future together.
Not only that, but it’s important to point out that President Putin called Prime Minister Khan
before US President Joe Biden did, who has yet to talk to the Pakistani leader despite the South
Asian state nominally being a so-called “Major Non-Nato Ally” and indispensable to America’s
evacuation from Afghanistan. The Russian leader therefore showed that he respects his Pakistani
counterpart much more than his American one does, which signifies just how seriously the strategic
dynamics are shifting in South Asia.
Nevertheless, Russian-Indian relations still remain strong since President Putin spoke to Prime
Minister Narendra Modi the day before calling his Pakistani counterpart so nobody should
speculate that there will be any worsening of their ties as a result of the latest development. Rather,
Russia is simply showing the world that it’s truly restored balance to its South Asian strategy, which
builds upon the new model of regional engagement pioneered in April after Russian Foreign
Minister Sergey Lavrov paid his first trip to Pakistan in 9 years.
Russia has indisputably returned to South Asia ever since the start of the year, and in a more
balanced way than ever before. While India will still remain the Kremlin’s top partner there,
Pakistan will no longer be neglected like in the past. In fact, Russia nowadays needs Pakistan in
order to advance its regional interests which finally align with Islamabad’s own, particularly in
Afghanistan. Their mutual embrace of geo-economics has made their respective grand strategies of
the Greater Eurasian Partnership and CPEC+ complementary through PAKAFUZ.
Considering the context in which President Putin initiated his call to Prime Minister Khan,
which includes not just the Afghan Crisis in general but also Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah
Mahmood Qureshi’s ongoing tour to each of Afghanistan’s neighbours apart from China, there’s no
question that Russia nowadays relies on close coordination with Pakistan for achieving peace and
stability in Afghanistan. This observation marks a defining moment in their relations and shows that
they’ve finally begun to take on strategic dimensions.
(Source: Express Tribune)
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PAKISTAN’S PROBLEMATIC VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN

Bruce Riedel (senior fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy)
The Afghan Taliban and their Pakistani army patrons are back in Kabul before the 20th
anniversary of 9/11. Pakistan’s army Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI) has backed the
Taliban since the group’s origin in the mid-1990s. Under intense pressure in September 2001, the ISI
briefly removed its experts and assistance, creating the same panic and flight to the Taliban that the
US withdrawal just did to the Afghan army. But the ISI quickly renewed its support and that aid
continues today. The Taliban/ISI victory in Afghanistan will have significant consequences for
Pakistan, some of which may be dangerous and violent.
Mullah Omar, the founder of the Taliban, was trained by the ISI during the war against the
Soviets in the 1980s. When he was wounded, he got medical attention in a Pakistani hospital. After
the Soviets retreated out of Afghanistan, he was one of many warlords fighting for control of the
country. As he created the Taliban, the Pakistani army gave him support for the drive on Kabul in
1996 that gave the Taliban control of most of the country. Pakistan provided experts and advisers for
the Taliban military, oil for its economy and was their supply route to the outside world.
After the American invasion of Afghanistan, Omar went into exile in Pakistan along with most
of his lieutenants. With the ISI’s help, they rebuilt the infrastructure in the borderlands and
gradually stepped up attacks on the NATO and Afghan forces. Pakistani aid went far beyond
sanctuary and safe haven for the leadership and cadres and their families — it included training,
arms, experts, and help in fundraising, especially in the Gulf states. On occasion, Pakistani advisers
accompanied the Taliban on missions inside Afghanistan. The ISI is particularly close to the Haqqani
network in the Taliban. Omar most likely died in Karachi; his death was not announced for months.
It is fair to assume that the ISI helped the Taliban plan its blitzkrieg this summer. The Taliban’s
seizing of the north reflected memories of its enemies using bases there in the late 1990s to resist the
Taliban and the CIA using those facilities to bring down the Taliban in 2001. The plan also
prioritized seizing border crossings, especially in the west, which kept Iran from providing aid to its
Shiite Hazara allies in Afghanistan.
Officially, Pakistan said it supported a political solution, but there is no sign that it pressed the
Taliban to make a deal with the Ghani government. We will soon see if the Taliban includes other
political parties in the new regime.
Islamist parties in Pakistan have celebrated the victory in Afghanistan. Undoubtedly the ISI is
hailing the fall of Kabul as their humbling of a second superpower, but it is savvy enough to do its
gloating in private.
Other clients of the ISI are also big winners, especially the group Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, which
carried out the attacks on Mumbai in 2008, also with ISI support and training of the attackers. That
group has long been closely linked to the Taliban and has hundreds of fighters embedded in the
Taliban.
Another beneficiary of the collapse of the Afghan government is likely to be the Pakistan
Taliban who have been at war with the Pakistani army for years. The Afghan Taliban have a murky
relationship with their Pakistani counterpart. Certainly, individuals in the Afghan Taliban are in
touch with their Pakistani fellow believers and will offer safe haven in their new conquests. There
may be a serious blowback in time.
The Afghan Taliban are virulently anti-Shiite. There have already been incidents of violence.
That will increase sectarian tension in Pakistan which has a much larger Shiite population than
Afghanistan.
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The Biden administration has taken a curious lack of interest in Pakistan. Routine contacts with
the army, diplomats, and spies have continued but President Biden has ignored the country. He has
not spoken with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. Khan is the elected leader of the sixth most
populous country in the world with a growing nuclear weapons arsenal. Secretary of State Antony
Blinken has been to New Delhi but not to Islamabad. The fiasco in Kabul should be a wake-up call to
get involved.
(Source: Brookings)

FATF GREY LIST

What Pakistan Has To Do
Azimul Haque (Researcher on South Asian Affairs)
Financial Action Task Force (FATF) decided to keep Pakistan on its grey list in their June 2021
session. Pakistan has been dealing with this problem for a long period of time. The country has
apparently been doing a lot to overcome this. Let us have a discussion on FATF, Pakistan’s inclusion
in the FATF grey list and what Pakistan should do to resolve it.
Financial Action Task Force (FATF)
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) was established in 1979 through the initiative of the G7
to formulate policies aimed at combating money laundering. It is an intergovernmental
organization. In the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks in 2001, the issue of “Terrorism Financing” was
expanded to include its mandate. By 2021, the FATF has 37 member countries; Indonesia is an
observer country and several regional and international organizations are its associate member,
most notably the United Nations.
The purpose of the FATF is to set the standards for implementing legal and effective measures
to address money laundering, terrorist financing and other threats to the transparency of the
international financial system. The FATF is a policy-making body that works to generate the political
will needed to reform a country’s national economical arena. FATF monitors the progress of
implementation of its recommendations through peer reviews of member countries. Since 2000, the
FATF has been reviewing the economic parameters of all the countries in the world and has been
operating by including some countries in the FATF Black List and FATF Grey List. Although there
are only 37 member countries, the reason behind its massive importance is, if a country is included
in the FATF grey or black list, the UN advises other major economies to impose economic sanctions
on that country.
If FATF finds evidence of money laundering or terror financing inside the border of any
country, it places the country on its grey list and directs it to act on 40 recommendations. If the
country can properly comply with these 40 recommendations, its name will be removed from the
grey list (or it can be said to be white-listed as well). If the recommendations are not fulfilled within
the stipulated time, the specific country will be blacklisted by the FATF. At the moment, North
Korea and Iran are on the FATF blacklist.
Why is Pakistan on the FATF grey list?
Pakistan has been on the grey list twice so far in 2012 and 2018. One of the reasons for being
included in the gray list in 2012 was the discovery of the existence of the internationally banned
militant Osama Bin Laden by the US government in 2011 in Abbottabad, Pakistan. The incident calls
into question the activities of Pakistan’s security and intelligence agencies. At the same time, the
credibility of the Pakistan Government in front of the international community fell under threat.
Another reason is that Pakistan has taken a stand against two UN Security Council Resolutions in
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2012 and refrained from signing them. The resolutions were 1267 and 1373, stating that no country
would in any way support any militant group within its borders, consent to conduct its activities
and confiscate all their property. The UN had suggested that the country be included in the grey list
if it failed to comply with these two resolutions. The history of that time shows that militant groups
like Tehreek-e-Taliban, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jama’at-ud-Da’wah, etc. were conducting open activities
inside Pakistan. For these reasons, Pakistan, which is included in the grey list, has been working on
40 recommendations for the next 3 years. In some cases, progress has actually been made. In 2013,
Pakistan amended their Anti-terrorism Act. In 2014, Pakistan implemented the National Internal
Security Policy for the first time in their history. For these reasons, in February 2015, the FATF
removed Pakistan from the grey list.
In 2016, a ruling in the Lahore High Court said that, Hafez Saeed, the head of Jama’at-ud-
Da’wah, would be released and his property would be returned to him because international
organizations could not provide sufficient evidence against him. As a result of this incident, in 2018,
the FATF again included Pakistan in the grey list. Subsequently, the FATF initially asked Pakistan to
act on 27 recommendations. According to Pakistani media, Pakistan has fully complied with 26
recommendations. The FATF added six more points and asked Pakistan to work on them as well.
What Pakistan should do
So far, Pakistan has been working diligently on the 27 points and six additional points
recommended by the FATF. One thing is clear here, America and India have direct and indirect role
behind this. The US wants a military base inside Pakistan on the Afghanistan issue. On the other hand,
the Prime Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan has made it clear that this is ‘Absolutely Not’ possible. In
response, in June this year, the US government influenced the FATF to keep Pakistan on the grey list.
On the other hand, the Indian media has always accused Pakistan of being behind the
operations of militant groups like Jama’at-ud-Da’wah, Falah-e-Insaniat, Jaish-e-Mohammed and
others in India. India will always want Pakistan to be on the FATF grey list as a weapon to put
pressure on Pakistan to maintain its subcontinental power.
Considering these aspects, what Pakistan can do is:
First of all, the initiatives taken so far can be clearly presented to the media as taken against the
27 + 6 points recommended by the FATF. For example, in 2020, the government of Pakistan
amended the Anti-Money Laundering Act, the Anti-Terrorism Act and the United Nations Security
Council Act which are capable of meeting all the requirements of the FATF.
Secondly, the Pakistan National Counter Terrorism Authority, the Pakistan Security Exchange
Commission, the Federal Bureau of Revenue and the State Bank of Pakistan and other finance
related organizations can highlight major developments in their regular reports.
Thirdly, the government can instruct all finance agencies to work transparently, as well as to
issue citizen charters and ensure the right to information to ensure the positive image of the
concerned agencies.
Fourthly, by signing Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) with the countries where money
laundering is being alleged against the country, Pakistan may investigate the issue of money
laundering and take necessary disciplinary action against those involved.
Fifthly, Pakistan can completely move away from the Geo-Strategic Foreign Policy, establish
and effectively execute the Geo-Economic Foreign Policy (in which they are already working on) to
strengthen its economic ties with different countries and restore its positive international image. The
countries of the Muslim world, Turkey, Malaysia, China (CPEC) will be on Pakistan’s first
consideration list in this regard.
In order to survive economically and get off the FATF grey list, Pakistan must adopt a strong
foreign policy while focusing on the technicalities of the domestic economy.
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Governance
URBANISATION OR MUSHROOMING SLUMS
Nawazish Ali (former Army Officer)
Human civilisation has been changing the Earthsince forever with no heed to its detrimental
impacts. Urbanisation, deforestation and dam construction alter water cycles and wind patterns;
occasionally triggering droughts, even creating deserts. Since Pakistan’s population growing by over
two per cent every year, many Pakistanis are flocking to big cities and towns, way faster than in any
other South Asian country. The nature of this urbanisation can best be described as “slumisation” or
“ruralisation” of urban life. According to a rough estimate, more than half of Pakistan’s projected
250 million population is expected to live in these slums or shantytowns by 2030.
Pakistan ranks eighth among the ten countries, which collectively hold 60 per cent of its
substandard housing across the world. A critical survey of the habitation of Pakistan reveals how
large tracts of land have been transformed into uncontainable slums.
Factually, a mere glance at Central Punjab—all the way from Rawalpindi to Multan—reveals
nothing but a swell of interconnected shantytowns along highways and subsidiary roads. The
serious implications of this menace, include a reduction in total arable areas, scarcity of water, the
worst kind of sanitation crises as well as wastage of financial resources )on numerous on-and-off
development works executed by governments).
The peculiar bylaws of inheritance and an overwhelming increase in population have converted
these mushrooms into two to three rooms of 100 to 125 square yards housing units. Unemployment,
poverty, environmental hazards, lack of sanitation and water shortage has further plagued these
cabbage-towns. As per an estimate by the State Bank of Pakistan, urban housing is approximately
4.4 million units short of the present demand in all major cities. If the current trends continue,
Pakistan’s five largest cities will account for 78 per cent of the total housing shortage by 2035. This
process may bring risks of profound social instability along with dangers to critical infrastructure,
water table and an ever-looming threat of the spread of diseases.
According to the Asian Development Bank, approximately 80 per cent of existing water supply
schemes in Pakistan carries unsafe drinking water. Slums located in centre and around big cities are
mostly devoid of any notable water supply schemes, sewerage and drainage systems. Shared and
open latrines are common in these areas. Access to solid waste management services is almost
negligible. A rapid increase in all kinds of transport on urban, countryside and rural roads is
multiplying severe traffic congestion as well as exacerbating pollution hazards. The infrastructure
for most common modes of travel in Pakistan, such as pavements for walking or special lanes for
bicycles, either does not exist or has been encroached upon, even in big cities.
The drying up of the three major rivers, according to the Indus Basin Treaty, resulted in massive
deforestation in Punjab. Hence, the intensity of air pollution in Punjab’s major cities is three to four
times higher than that determined safe by the UN standards. This has also increased the sizes of
built-up areas while enhancing the pollution levels in the air. A rise in concrete structures across the
landscape is further increasing daily temperatures. Unfortunately, reversing deforestation is a
complicated and uphill task.
Outdated land management regulation and building codes, the absence of a unified land record
system and patchy data on land usage resulted in poor and inadequate land-controlling and
supervision. One consequence is extreme inequality in land distribution for essential public and
municipal services. It should be mentioned how there is grave inadequacy of land for graveyards
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and places of worship in all big cities. Karachi and Lahore have especially seen the development of
large real estate housing schemes in the recent past; multiplying traffic congestion along the main
highways. These ventures are redefining the urban limits for the worst.
To tackle the problem on a long-term basis, extra attention is essential to convert slums into
manageable habitats, absorb the urban poor and help them adjust to their new homes. The
government should undertake policies to develop and improve the earning capabilities of both rural
and urban poor by facilitating their access to employment, credit, production, marketing
opportunities, basic education, health services and vocational training. To combat the growing
poverty in an extensive chain of rural areas, the attack must be two-pronged. Those living in
squatter tenements should be given better municipal resources. Permanent solutions should be
hammered out to deflect the rapid inflow of rural-to-urban migrants with better-earning means in
the rural areas.
The expansion of slums in Pakistan—without concomitant economic development and
industrialisation—is an unpleasant reality. If this continues, it may choke the municipal and public
infrastructure to an unmanageable level. To achieve a balanced spatial distribution of production,
employment and population, the government needs to adopt a sustainable development strategy to
combat the threat of ‘slumisation’ in Pakistan.
(Source: Daily Times)

G-B AS PROVISIONAL PROVINCE

On November 1, 2020 (Nov 1 is observed as Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) Independence Day), Prime
Minister Imran Khan had announced that his government would give the region the provisional
status of a province “without prejudice to the Kashmir dispute”. Four months on, the Gilgit-
Baltistan Legislative Assembly passed a unanimous resolution demanding interim provincial status
for the region. This was not only in line with the lingering demand of people of the region, but also
as it acquired strategic pertinence in light of the fact that the China Pakistan Economic Corridor
(CPEC) passes through it – much to the chagrin of India. For adoption of Gilgit-Baltistan as a
provisional province of Pakistan, Article 1 of the Constitution shall have to be amended, and that to
some should be no problem given the Opposition’s reported unconditional commitment of support
that it had expressed in presence of Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa.
The Ministry of Law and Justice has finalized the proposed legislation – the 26th Constitutional
Amendment - and submitted the draft to Prime Minister Imran Khan. It was prepared after
appraisal of the region’s status in the context of the UN Security Council resolutions on Jammu and
Kashmir. Stakeholders, including the governments of Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Jammu and
Kashmir, too, have been consulted. It has been ensured that India or any other hostile entity doesn’t
succeed in scandalizing this move, a likelihood which cannot be ruled out given New Delhi’s
insistence that Gilgit-Baltistan being part of undivided State of Jammu and Kashmir cannot be a
province of Pakistan. Since India is presently president of the UN Security Council it may also raise
this issue at that platform. But meticulous care has been taken to ensure that the proposed
constitutional amendment is in accordance with the international practices of merger of territories
and it will not adversely affect Pakistan’s stand on the Kashmir dispute in any manner whatsoever.
As proposed, the provisional province of Gilgit-Baltistan will have its legislature as well as
representation of its people in the Senate and National Assembly of Pakistan. And in line with the
proposed constitutional amendment its Chief Court may be abolished and replaced with a High
Court, while the Supreme Appellate Court (SAC) of Gilgit-Baltistan may be abolished or re-
established, along the lines of Supreme Court of Azad Jammu and Kashmir. In case it is abolished
the jurisdiction of Supreme Court of Pakistan may be extended to Gilgit-Baltistan. The Election
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Commission of the region will be merged with Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) and its
chairman will be made a member of the ECP. But as of now all of this is only a proposal. In what
final shape it emerges after discussion and debate in parliament and reaction of general public and
media it has yet to be seen. There’s a very old proverb: There’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and the lip.
Those who lost elections both in Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir may insist that Imran Khan’s
move very much fits into the Narendra Modi’s scheme of things. They may claim that after granting
provisional provincial status to Gilgit-Baltistan he may also convert Azad Kashmir into a province of
Pakistan and thus bring to a dishonourable end the decades-old struggle for the Kashmir cause.
(Source: Business Recorder)

PAKISTAN’S DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION

Julian Gorman (Head of Asia Pacific, GSMA)
Digital technologies are set to transform the way people live and work in Pakistan. As we saw
in the GSMA 2020 Digital Societies Report, which tracks the progress of 11 focus countries in Asia
Pacific, Pakistan is advancing its societal, economic and digital ambition, as outlined in Digital
Pakistan Vision. Indeed, our report’s digital society index tracked Pakistan in achieving one of the
highest increases in its overall score.
By 2023, the economic contribution of the mobile industry in Pakistan is expected to reach $24
billion, accounting for 6.6% of GDP .In an effort to stimulate this growth, Pakistan has recently
moved forward with significant mobile services tax reforms.
Digital platforms, such as mobile services, have become the primary channel for a growing
number of citizens to access public and private services, especially during the pandemic. Behind this
development are the vital roles played by National and provincial policymakers, the Pakistan
Telecommunication Authority (PTA) and Ministry of Information Technology and
Telecommunication (MoITT), who have helped increase access for citizens high-quality connectivity
and digital services. This has cultivated digital inclusion, e-commerce and a general entrepreneurial
spirit for the people of Pakistan.
With a population of approximately 220 million, and more than 100 million people under the
age of 25, Pakistan is well positioned to play a growing role in the global economy over the next
decade.Pakistan’s mobile market has experienced rapid development over the last decade, playing a
significant role in Pakistan’s growth. In 2018, the total economic contribution of the mobile
ecosystem was worth $16.7 billion, equivalent to 5.4% of GDP.
In a post pandemic world, Industry 4.0 – otherwise known as the fourth industrial revolution –
will help economies recover and become more resilient to future shocks. And technology, supported
by mobile networks, will be at the core of Pakistan’s industrial development as it works to launch
the fourth industrial revolution.
Pakistan’s recent policy actions offers a glimpse of this potential. But authorities must act
together, creating the business environment necessary to realise these goals. A whole-of-government
(WGA) approach will ensure better coordination of digital transformation initiatives across the
public sector, complemented by private sector investment and innovation. We believe this holistic
approach is a way for emerging and transition digital societies to leapfrog bureaucratic pain points.
A whole of government approach in Pakistan creates the start of a predictable investment and
flexible regulatory environment. These measures, needed to achieve the goals of Digital Pakistan,
include tax reforms as well as efforts to implement Right-of-Way (RoW) infrastructure policies. The
success of these efforts will be measured by their implementation, along with the growth they
support in the future.
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Implementing tax reforms for industry growth and infrastructure policy Pakistan recently
approved tax reforms that will stimulate mobile industry growth. These include gradually reducing
Advance Income Tax from 12.5% to 10% in the next financial bill (FY2021-22); further reducing to 8%
in the 2022-23 Finance Bill; approval of harmonization /uniform rate of taxes on telecom service;
withdrawal of SIM issue tax; simplification of and exemptions for withholding tax to ease doing
business; reduction of minimum tax for telecom services from 8 to 3%.
In order to fully realise the benefits of these tax recommendations, the Financial Bill (FY 2021-
22) must be enacted into law. Similarly, we recommend policy makers implement Right of Way
(RoW)and other policies that impact the infrastructure supporting digital and mobile access.
Recently, a significant milestone was reached when policy makers in Pakistan approved, for the first
time, RoW infrastructure policy. We commend this move and urge that these policies are
implemented quickly. As technology evolves, unforeseen challenges can arise that may not have
occurred to policy makers during their inception.
Spectrum roadmap and digital inclusion
Along with these crucial policies and regulatory modernisation initiatives, there are additional
steps needed as Pakistan continues to build itself into a digital society. In particular, the
development and implementation of a five-to-seven-year spectrum roadmap. Spectrum is the
foundation for mobile services. Sufficient spectrum allows mobile networks to reach even more
citizens in Pakistan and offer a better quality of service.
Digital Pakistan also includes digital inclusion as one of its policy objectives. Currently, it has a
54% mobile broadband usage gap , as defined by people who live within the footprint of a mobile
broadband network but do not use mobile internet. A spectrum roadmap provides stability and
certainty as it helps to create a more investment-friendly environment for mobile operators looking
to build 5G and 4G mobile networks.
Industry and government stakeholders
A holistic, whole-of-Government approach speeds digitization and the adoption of new
technologies in a more efficient manner. By removing barriers caused by siloed efforts from different
ministries, Pakistan could more efficiently harness the capabilities of its existing 4G networks, while
preparing for 5G. Another key piece in the digitization effort will be the solicitation of input from
industry stakeholders. A transparent consultation process that offers parties the ability to submit
thoughtful input has the potential to lead to an enabling regulatory framework primed for new
technologies.
Taken together – implementing its new laws, using a whole-of-government approach to
support the digitization process, and receiving input from interested stakeholders – Pakistan is well
placed to progress to a fully-fledged digital society. In doing so, it may offer its citizens the ability to
learn new skills for new jobs, offer small and medium-sized enterprises access to new markets, and
spur new investments into the country. This will ultimately help to meet the goals of Digital
Pakistan and continue Pakistan’s digital transformation.
(Source: Daily Times)

GOVERNANCE AND PAKISTAN’S STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES

Mehmood Mandviwalla (President of SAARCLAW)
Good governance is commonly understood to embody the characteristics of accountable,
transparent, participatory, responsive, effective, and efficient; to minimize corruption; to take into
account the views of minorities; and finally, and perhaps most importantly, to follow the rule of law.
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This paper presents and examines governance issues related to state-owned enterprises (SOEs), with
particular emphasis on privatization.
Judicial Restraint, Activism, or Adventurism?
In Pakistan, the judiciary enjoys a very significant position. It is fiercely independent and has
been the guardian and custodian of the Constitution.
Recent judicial activism in Pakistan has made the judiciary a watchdog against the violation of
fundamental rights guaranteed under the Constitution. The challenge, in the case of the Supreme
Court, is to strike the right balance when it comes to the tightrope of equity, justice, and good
conscience.
The question will always be when, how, and to what extent the Supreme Court should exercise
its activism. Generally, the approach of the judiciary in Pakistan has been that while it may be
appropriate that the courts show due deference to the opinion formed by the executive, any state
action that violates fundamental rights must invariably be subject to judicial scrutiny that passes the
test of fairness and impartiality.
Indian judgments are followed and relied upon in Pakistan, and they have persuasive value. An
important milestone in India’s privatization was the landmark 2001 judgment of its Supreme Court
in a case titled Balco Employees Union vs. Union of India and others. The Court laid down the
principle of judicial restraint in relation to the matter of privatization. It was held that in a
democracy, it is the prerogative of each elected government to follow its own policy. A change in
government may often result in a shift in focus or change in economic policies. Any such change
may result in adversely affecting some vested interests. Unless any illegality is committed in the
execution of the policy or the same is contrary to law or mala fide, a decision bringing about change
cannot per se be interfered with by the Court. It is neither within the domain of the courts nor the
scope of the judicial review to embark upon an enquiry as to whether a particular public policy is
wise or whether better public policy can be evolved. Nor are the courts inclined to strike down a
policy at the behest of a petitioner merely because it has been urged that a different policy would
have been fairer or wiser or more scientific or more logical.
In other words, according to this Indian Supreme Court judgment, it is not for the courts to
consider the relative merits of different policies. For testing the correctness of a policy, the
appropriate forum is parliament and not the courts.
Pakistan has judicial precedents in public interest litigation where on the one hand the Supreme
Court has exercised judicial restraint, and on the other hand where the courts have felt justified to
intervene. Such intervention can be regarded as judicial activism. In some cases, judicial activism has
bordered on being classified as judicial adventurism. However, the courts do not and should not
operate in the framework of these concepts.
For the Supreme Court, as a guardian and interpreter of the Constitution, the only concept that
matters is the rule of law.
Public interest litigation is a weapon that has to be used with great care and circumspection.
Indeed, the judiciary has to be extremely careful. It must ensure that ugly private malice, vested
interests, and publicity-seeking do not lurk behind the beautiful veil of public interest. Indeed, the
attractive brand name of public interest litigation should not be used for suspicious products of
mischief.
The Challenges of Privatization
For decades, Pakistani politicians have invoked hollow slogans focused around economic
upliftment, poverty alleviation, and the overall improvement of the lives of the toiling masses. If
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politicians understood real economics and linked their politics to the same, we Pakistanis may not
find ourselves where we are today and be envious of the gloss and shine of the Indian economy and
businesses. For years, Pakistan has declared an economic war on itself through the manner in which
its budget is allocated.
In Pakistan, privatization suffers from, or has to face, the following challenges:
 It is not and has not been an economic ideology for successive governments.
 Government ownership of privatization is for the wrong reasons. It is rooted in either the
desire to use the proceeds of sales for financing the budget deficit, or simply to meet the
deadline for publishing the Expression of Interest imposed as a consequence of International
Monetary Fund (IMF) or other conditions.
 Country ownership is limited. To the public at large, it is a change from one shareholder
(the government) to another (the private sector). Privatization will be effective and popular
only if private managers act in the public interest.
 The political opposition (in complete disregard for its own election manifestos) criticizes the
incumbent government’s privatization plans. It brings in slogans such as “selling the
country’s silver.” The loss-making SOE becomes the vanity of the nation. For example, in
the case of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), the opposition has argued that the airline is
an embassy with wings transporting culture, commerce, and goodwill around the world.
The sovereignty of the country, so goes the opposition narrative, is being compromised by
selling such national symbols—as loss-making as these supposed national icons may be.
 The impression among employees in SOEs that the public sector has an advantage over the
private sector in terms of job security, working conditions, and fringe benefits.
The post-privatization success of the Balco case and others like it is important in that it
demonstrates that labour is not necessarily a casualty of privatization. While it is expected of a
reasonable employer to take many matters into consideration, including the welfare of labour,
before making a policy decision, that by itself will not entitle the employees to demand a right of
hearing or consultation prior to the making of the decision. The workers may have some protections;
however, the sole shareholder—the government—does not have to give the workers prior notice of a
hearing before deciding to disinvest.
Privatization and Judicial Activism
A major advantage—or disadvantage—for privatization is judicial activism. Major privatization
transactions in Pakistan have been brought before the Supreme Court on the grounds that they
relate to public importance or are an enforcement of a fundamental right or public duty. Below are
two contrasting cases.
In the 2006 Pakistan Steel Case, the Supreme Court struck down the contract entered into by the
Privatization Commission of Pakistan with the successful bidder. This decision ultimately has cost
the Pakistani taxpayer billions of rupees.
In this case, the Supreme Court did not pay much attention to the wellestablished principle of
law—namely, that it is not the function of the judiciary to interfere in the policymaking domain of
the executive.
The most surprising feature of the judgment was that the Supreme Court appeared to suggest a
unilateral demand: Bidders should have furnished a guarantee for the purpose of making future
investments with a view to raising production capacity. This was not a condition specified in the bid
documents, and no such requirement has been made in any other case of privatization. If such
guarantees are made a condition of privatization, no company will ever be privatized.
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In the 2011 Habib Bank Case, surprisingly, the first question framed for adjudication was
whether privatization was carried out in haste and was undertaken on the desire of the IMF. The
assumption here was that the decision was not that of the government of Pakistan, but rather was
made due to external pressure. While the Supreme Court held that this logic was twisted and
rejected the position, the fact that such a question even made it to the process of adjudication
highlights the extent to which any government has to go not only to implement a transparent
process but also to manage all kinds of perceptions that make it to the Court.
The Supreme Court further held that while dealing with a case relatable to financial management
by the government, it must appreciate that these are either policy issues or commercial transactions
requiring knowledge in specialized fields. The Court noted that it lacks the expertise to express any
opinion on the soundness or otherwise of such acts and transactions. The Court even went so far as to
state that so long as there was “substantial compliance with the relevant provision,” then a minor
deviation from the rules or regulations, if any, in the absence of any credible allegation of mala fides or
corruption would not furnish a valid grounds for interference in judicial review. Indeed, this portion
appears to follow the concept of judicial restraint as enunciated in the Balco case.
For the purposes of privatization, what is the rule of law in terms of a public functionary
exercising public authority? The decision of the government should be fair, just, transparent,
reasonable, not arbitrary, untainted by mala fide, without discrimination, in accordance with the law,
without any deviation of due process, and made while always keeping in view the constitutional
rights of citizens. Given the presence of so many criteria, something is bound to go amiss.
The Court can nullify any action of the government where it is established that a decision-
making authority acted in violation of the above; exceeded its powers; or committed an error of law
or an all-encompassing breach of the rules of natural justice.
Given the judicial activism already seen in public interest litigation, it can be expected that
future privatization will be subject to judicial scrutiny.
It is unlikely that superior courts will demonstrate restraint or reluctance in this regard, and in
fact they are likely to broaden their constitutional authority particularly when state institutions cross
their constitutional limits.
Code of Corporate Governance: First Phase
Lord Acton perhaps made the founding statement on corporate governance with his famous
quote that “power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.” Democracy through
the doctrine of separation of powers divides power and control between the judiciary, the executive,
and the legislative, and each must have a separate and distinct autonomy. In a similar vein, the
government places an expectation upon business houses that divisions should be created, and the
requisite autonomy maintained, within its own business organizations.
The reason to draw this comparison is important. Governments view multinational enterprises
as having the economic power of any government.
In each case, the government and the private sector have a separation between principal and
agent. In the case of the government, the principal is society and in the case of the company the
principal is the shareholder. The agent is the public servant for the government whereas for the
company it is management. The division between the public sector and the private sector has been
increasing, particularly with privatization and corporatization. In Pakistan, we have seen the
privatization of the banking system and other previously public services. Indeed, if all the large
banks in Pakistan came together, they could yield serious economic power and seek any change that
they desire from the government.
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All of the above underscores the need to establish corporate governance, or some similar type of
division of power and control, in boardrooms. A Code of Corporate Governance was in fact
introduced in Pakistan in 2002. Today, the Code derives its strength not from a fear of penalties, but
rather from the widespread support and heightened level of expectation it has now introduced.
What is the purpose of the Code of Corporate Governance? Where public investment is sought,
the obligation of the state is to protect investors against malpractice. In the case of banking and
finance, the twin peaks are confidence and integrity. One complements the other, and each is
codependent on the other. The slightest doubt about the integrity of a financial system can erode the
confidence that supports it. While Pakistan may not have experienced corporate scandals of the
magnitude of Enron and Worldcall, we have still seen financial institutions collapse. Indeed, larger
financial institutions could have also collapsed had it not been for the government’s timely
privatization of the large state-owned banks that brought back and resurged the confidence of
having a safe and well-managed bank. Prior to privatization, in 1997, the government as a first step
changed the senior management of the three largest banks in Pakistan, thereby avoiding scandals in
these institutions. Even without the formal Code of Corporate Governance, these banks were turned
around through major restructuring—particularly in relation to ensuring good governance. This
further fortifies the view that discipline and integrity cannot be ensured only with regulation.
All banks are used to limits on equity investment and other requirements meant to protect bank
deposits and investments which are placed in the banks’ trust. This fiduciary responsibility is a
pillar of corporate governance, and it rests solely with none other then the senior management of the
bank and its board of directors.
The most frequently asked question is to whom do the management and the board owe this
fiduciary responsibility. Almost 80 percent of bank assets are financed by the depositor’s funds and
in some cases less than 5 percent by equity, making banking business a highly leveraged business in
an economy. In these circumstances, the message is clear: The primary responsibility of the
management of a bank is to depositors, not shareholders.
Another common question is what the responsibilities are. In legal terms, the director’s
responsibilities are embodied in the articles of association and in the complex, and at times
inaccessible, case law. As a result, directors have often not been clear about their general duties. The
Code of Corporate Governance is certainly a step in the right direction toward achieving clarity in
this regard.
We have seen corporate governance being introduced in various forms in the case of banks.
Examples include directors’ remunerations, the number of meetings that directors have to attend,
limitations on the number of directorships each director can hold, the rotation of auditors,
restrictions on directors investing in shares, and governance of employee share-owning plans.
While the Code of Corporate Governance requires substantial disclosure, most listed
companies—including banks—do not have sufficiently broadbased shareholding to ensure
shareholder independence strong enough to demand such disclosures. In a typical general meeting
in Pakistan, it is usually a case of one representative of the majority shareholder holding proxy for 51
to 75 percent shareholding and casting the vote on behalf of one or more of the major shareholders.
To conclude, the onus of good governance rests with the directors. No amount of regulation,
codes, or standards can replace the integrity, honesty, and responsible conduct of a director in a
board room. Moreover, corporate governance can only be implemented in the true sense if the
shareholding structure becomes broad based.
The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) now has 16 years of experience in
enforcing the Code of Corporate Governance.
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Hence, enforcement of the new rules of corporate governance in relation to SOEs should be
effected efficiently and swiftly.
Code of Corporate Governance: Second Phase
Since 2013, the SECP has been implementing SOE corporate governance regulations in order to
substantially strengthen the independence, capacity, and roles of boards of directors. These
regulations include measures such as the establishment of audit committees, distinguishing between
the roles of chairman and CEO, and improving the process for the appointment of directors.
The SECP is now seeking to make amendments to these rules in order to enable SECP to better
regulate them. It appears that the amendments are in fact relaxing the rules. The rules are not
applicable to SOEs that are not registered under the Companies Act of 2017, are established under
their own special enactments, or are operating in a non-corporate form.
Recommendations
1. Corporatize
Corporatize SOEs by converting them into companies under the Companies Act of 2017. This
will bring uniformity and standardization in their legal structures. SOEs include government
divisions and departments, particularly entities set up under a special statute (statutory
corporations).
In this regard, a data bank of independent directors is required for the identification of
competent directors. This will require an elabourate mechanism for nominating and inducting
independent directors. The Companies Ordinance of 2016, which was struck down by the Pakistan
Senate, contained enabling provisions of this sort.
2. Commercialize
While on the one hand the priority is to convert statutory corporations and divisions into
entities under the Companies Act, a task that the Pakistani government has already been
successfully implementing, a more difficult task is to give these converted corporate bodies a much-
needed commercial mindset and framework. Commercialization of these SOEs requires
a cleaning up of balance sheets; a retrenchment of employees; a stop to all non-commercial
business and activity; the introduction of modern technology; and a change in mindset and culture.
3. Privatize
Once SOEs are corporatized and commercialized, the process of privatization is not likely to
face resistance, and even if challenged, it should be able to withstand the test of judicial activism or
adventurism.
(Source: Wilson Center)

RECONSIDERING ELECTRONIC VOTING

Taha Ali (Adviser to the government and the ECP on election technology)
The conversation around electronic voting machines (EVMs) appears to be coming to a head.
Prime Minister Imran Khan received a detailed demonstration of a locally made EVM last week.
While the Minister for Science and Technology, Shibli Faraz, claimed the machines ‘couldn’t be
hacked’, the PM tweeted out his hope that ‘finally we will have elections in Pakistan where all
contestants will accept the results.
Faraz repeated the claim about the EVM’s being ‘unhackable’ again at a media briefing later at the
Parliament House, once again presenting electronic voting as the solution to rigging. But, encouragingly,
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he accepted that it was up to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to decide whether to approve or
reject the machines, and invited lawmakers and the opposition to test out the machines.
The ECP has continued to express its reservations about EVMs. But the last few weeks have also
witnessed significant progress on the matter of electoral reforms. And the government has softened
its stance and appears keen on a more reconciliatory approach. There also appears to be some
progress behind-the-scenes in getting the opposition on board. Civil society organisations are
stirring into activity. And deliberations are starting in the Senate.
But the issue of election technology remains a big challenge. This is an attempt to explain why the
issue is not black and white and why care needs to be taken in its assessment. But first the good news.
The Benefits of Election Technology
Election technology is an enigma. It does bring proven and documented benefits. Introduction
of EVMs and results transmission systems (RTSs) dramatically speed up result reporting. This is a
blessing in developing countries such as the Philippines, various African nations and even Pakistan,
where extended delays in counting and reporting tend to provide a window for vote tampering.
EVMs have also considerably reduced polling-station fraud in India. Unlike paper-based elections,
EVMs prevent incorrect marking and spoilage of ballots, ensuring that every vote actually counts.
Technology may prove more inclusive. Studies note that voters find electronic voting more user
friendly and significantly more reliable. Researchers report that EVMs significantly empowered
weaker and vulnerable communities in India. A trial from the US found that voting using a mobile
device significantly increased turnout by three to five percentage points. Internet voting can
enfranchise overseas citizens, expatriates, military personnel and diplomatic staff, etc. Citizens from
countries such as Estonia, Brazil and India -nations with a prominent history of innovation in
election technology tend to take great national pride in their election infrastructure.
Technology may also be significantly more cost effective: the administrative cost of an electronic
vote in Estonia is about half that of using the traditional system.
Automation can also dramatically reduce the immense human workload involved.
A good example is Indonesia, which is now seriously considering a shift to electronic voting.
Indonesia recently combined the presidential and regional elections into what became the largest
single-day voting exercise in the world.
This involved some seven million election workers and security staff working in the hot
summer. More than 550 of them died of exhaustion and several thousands were hospitalised from
fatigue. Technology has a critical role to play in such scenarios.
These benefits of technology are undeniable and most definitely worth pursuing. However,
there is also a dark side to election technology.
The Dark Side of Election Technology
Almost every voting system which has been seriously investigated EVM or internet voting
platform has been hacked. In most cases, the hacking has been trivially easy. There are even
YouTube demos on the topic.
The world’s premier security conference, Defcon, now conducts an annual election technology
hackathon, with the aim of educating policymakers, election administrators and civil society. In the
2019 iteration, the organisers gathered 100 voting machines, each of which was certified for use in
one or more US states. Over the course of the weekend, every single one was hacked. The organisers,
renowned experts in election security, commented in their report: ‘As disturbing as this outcome is,
we note that it is at this point an unsurprising result.
Likewise, technology does not necessarily inspirecitizen confidence and alleviate distrust. I’ve
written earlier about India, where prominent opposition parties, civil society and technology experts
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are now raising a strident call over lack of transparency, ineffective auditing and procedural
irregularities with EVMs. Venezuela has one of the oldest and most advanced deployments of EVMs
in the world, and elections are routinely plagued with controversy.
Nor does technology tame the savage instinct. In regions of India, elections remain acrimonious
and violent affairs. Just this May, following assembly elections, post-poll violence in towns and
villages of West Bengal claimed 25 lives and 7,000 women were molested. In 2019, a village was set
on fire. In Venezuela, weeks of violent street protests preceded the polls of 2017 in which 125 people
lost their lives.
The biggest shock, though, is the US, which just witnessed its most controversial election in two
decades. According to certain polls, only about 60 percent of Americans believe that Joe Biden’s win
was actually legitimate. Highly contentious audits of machines, ballots and processes are currently
underway in several swing states.
As of this March, a staggering 361 electoral reform bills have already been proposed in 47 state
legislatures to reconfigure voting laws. Georgia, Arizona and Florida lead in aggressive
implementation of these new rules. Within the year, we will likely see grand showdowns in the US
Supreme Court. The famous Al Gore/ George Bush clash of 2020 seems almost civil in comparison.
These negatives are equally undeniable and very disturbing. I believe recent developments in
election technology give us great cause for optimism, but we need to tread very cautiously. There are
big questions to address: Why is election technology so complicated? What path should we take? What
are the mistakes we need to avoid? VOTER PRIVACY AND ELECTION INTEGRITY People generally
view electronic voting as an IT (information technology) problem, a job for a computer whiz or
professional software team, like setting up a website or building an app.As someone who works in this
field, these are the questions I get asked most often: if you can bank and shop online, why can’t you
vote online? Aren’t billions upon billions of dollars transacted digitally all over the world every single
day without problems? Why this big fuss about EVMs when we already have ATMs at every street
corner? Isn’t it all just information flowing over wires at the end of the day? This comparison is
entirely natural, but also completely wrong. The information security community has been countering
it for decades. I personally see it as a wonderful opportunity to communicate the sheer depth and scale
of the election technology challenge and why it is so incredibly difficult to get right.
The big problem is the secret ballot.
With online banking and internet shopping, we maintain the integrity of the process by
ensuring stringent checks and balances on every transaction, each and every step of the way.
Rigorous security solutions and fail-safe mechanisms are deployed, detailed logs are maintained and
information is backed up in distributed data centres.
But for elections, votes have to be anonymised. Our notion of voter privacy dates back
millennia to ancient Greece, and it is recognised today as a fundamental right enshrined in the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights. All identifying information is deliberately stripped away
from the vote.
Any tracking of individual votes is now impossible this is exactly as it should be but, by this
very logic, it becomes near impossible to detect any tampering. This is a good thought experiment to
try for oneself if you cannot track something, how do you protect it? Ensuring voter privacy is easy
with a physical ballot box. Casting multiple ballots into a box automatically anonymises individual
votes. Observers and cameras can track the box. But an electronic voting system is, in effect, a ‘black
box’ one no longer has any visibility into what is happening inside. EVMs routinely malfunction,
losing, adding or switching votes.
Researchers have identified numerous security vulnerabilities which are easily exploited by
attackers. With some systems, polling staff could manipulate results with the press of a button.
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There are no receipts or log s to consult in case of an incident, there is no back-up in some distant
data centre.
If the attackers are competent, incidents will likely not even be detected. And, unlike paper, in
the digital realm it is equally easy to alter one vote or a thousand. Experts have long warned of this
paradox that, in most cases, electronic voting systems are actually more vulnerable to rigging than
paperbased elections.
This inherent tension between voter privacy and election integrity is the reason that Ireland and
Germany abruptly terminated their EVM deployments, and why so many other countries simply
chose to keep away from this Pandora’s box. At that time, a little over a decade ago, there was no
way to assure citizens that the machines were processing their votes correctly.
Other countries, including India and the United States, chose the hybrid route, introducing
voter verifiable paper audit trails (VVPAT) as a back-up mechanism.
This problem is especially pronounced for internet voting, where there is no paper trail.
Prior to last year’s US presidential elections, the US Department of Homeland Security
circulated a confidential report to election officials in all 50 states, cautioning against ‘high risk’
internet voting, warning that attackers could easily manipulate very large numbers of votes
undetected.
Banks also employ advanced security features, such as multiple passwords, transaction codes,
two-factor authentication and voice biometrics, that are too expensive and impractical for elections.
And banks still get hacked all the time, racking up huge losses on a daily basis.
Cybercrime is a phenomenally large industry: a study estimated damages at the 6 trillion dollar
mark if cybercrime were a country, it would be the world’s third largest economy after the US and
China. Another study estimates online payments fraud over the 2021-2025 period at 206 billion
dollars 10 times the current net income of global giant, Amazon.
How we recover from attacks and incidents is also very different. Banks are often able to
counter fraud and reverse transactions using detailed tracking mechanisms and logs. They
undertake detailed forensics investigations and collabourate with each other. Quite a bit of money is
actually recovered. That is very hard to do with elections.
Risk sharing strategies are also different. To quote election security expert, David Jefferson:
‘Vote fraud is much less manageable than e-commerce fraud. There is no election analog to the
natural business practice of ‘spreading the cost’ or ‘spreading the risk.’ There is no way to pass on to
other voters the ‘losses’ due to illegal ballots cast by ineligible voters or attackers, or to recover votes
changed by malicious software. There is no ‘insurance that one can buy to cover those losses. There
is just no way to compensate for damage done to an election.
A Unique Beast
Another critically important security difference: in stark contrast to banks, election systems
attract a whole different class of attacker elite intelligence agencies. There is ample evidence of state-
backed Russian and Chinese campaigns infiltrating US voting systems. We are now formally in the
domain of cyberwarfare, a whole new league.
A key weapon in the cyberwarfare arsenal is the secret practice of discovering and hoarding
knowledge of system vulnerabilities and then exploiting them at the most critical time with
devastating effect. This is called a ‘zero-day attack’ because the attacked party literally gets zero
days to fix the problem.
The Stuxnet worm, a malicious computer malware that wreaked havoc on Iran’s nuclear
program in 2010 used four hitherto unknown vulnerabilities in Windows, an unprecedented
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number. In 2015, researchers demonstrated zero-day attacks on the largest internet voting
deployment in the world, the New South Wales iVote system.
These considerations of foreign intervention motivated the US Department of Homeland
Security in 2017 to formally designate US election systems as ‘critical infrastructure’, the same class
as dams, nuclear power plants and power grids. Now, not only is the government more directly
involved in securing these systems, but any major attack on them will likely result in retaliation,
sanctions, counterattacks or even war.
Availability is also a key factor differentiating banks and elections. Internet banking is a 24/7
service and outages are common. It is common to go to a shop and find the pay-by-card service is
down. But voting systems are deployed for a very, very short period of time usually just a day and,
in that time frame, failure is simply not an option. Any system or protocol failure and how that
failure is handled is immediate cause for suspicion. We must appreciate that it is not enough that
elections are fair. They must be seen to be fair.
With banking systems, downtime or glitches are mostly a minor manageable inconvenience,
affecting some people some of the time.
Technology breakdowns during elections may bear direct and long-lasting impact loss of citizen
confidence, political deadlock and protests. Poland’s electronic voting system suffered major glitches
during local elections in 2014. Around 1,000 legal challenges were filed in Polish courts and some
60,000 people protested on the streets.
Hopefully these arguments clarify why Western countries have traditionally shied away from
EVMs, and why almost every country that has tried internet voting has failed at it, whereas internet
banking and e-commerce are here to stay.
In the cybersecurity community, up till very recently, internet voting was widely acknowledged
to be an impossible endeavour.
In 2018, the US National Academy of Sciences issued an authoritative report on election
technology, authored by leading specialists.
They said: ‘At the present time, the internet (or any network connected to the internet) should
not be used for the return of marked ballots ...
Further, internet voting should not be used in the future until and unless very robust
guarantees of security and verifiability are developed and in place, as no known technology
guarantees the secrecy, security, and verifiability of a marked ballot transmitted over the internet ...
Conducting secure and credible internet elections will require substantial scientific advances.
Since 2018, several countries including Switzerland, Australia, Russia and the US have relied on
cryptography to build next generation internet voting systems. All of these were hacked. Only
Estonia seems to have been successful. It is a bit early to tell if they’ve really hit upon the holy grail,
but the signs are promising.
The Developing World
Developing countries generally struggle with technology adoption and this trend is particularly
pronounced for election technology. Most such experiments fail, some quite catastrophically. The
textbook example is Kenya.
In 2013, Kenya racked up a bill of 260 million dollars on biometric verification technology and a
results transmission system.
An international observer commented that it was more modern than anything seen in the
European Union (EU) and was reportedly ‘tamper-proof’. It failed spectacularly on election day.
First the batteries for the biometrics verification systems started to die. It was then discovered
that several polling stations did not have power sockets. Poorly trained poll workers forgot their
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login credentials to access the systems. The verification systems failed to recognise significant
numbers of voters.
The SMS results transmission system became overloaded and collapsed. And it turned out the
election commission had only done one small pilot run instead of the extensive large-scale tests
recommended.
When result tallying stalled, the election commission had poll workers chauffeured or airlifted
by helicopter all the way to the tallying centre in Nairobi to deliver results in person. A computer
bug then inexplicably multiplied the number of disqualified ballots by a factor of eight, causing
confusion and anger for several days. There was an obvious outcry of fraud and rigging by the
losing side.
NPR described it as ‘the most modern election in African history’ and also ‘the triumph of
Murphy’s Law.
At home, we have our own internet voting experiment from 2018, slated to be the largest
deployment in the world. This hastily assembled system included almost every mistake in the book.
I served on the Internet Voting Task Force (IVTF) constituted by the Supreme Court to assess this
system. We hacked into it in minutes. We documented multiple critical vulnerabilities in almost
every major component. To our dismay, we even discovered simple attacks that layman voters could
launch, just sitting at home at their computers. There had simply been no homework.
A rich body of research literature has emerged to analyse such cases. The real reason, some
suspect, is not technological, it is perhaps psychological. In a recent paper studying the ‘unintended
consequences of election technology’ in African countries, elections expert Nic Cheeseman suggests
that ‘...the growing use of these technologies has been driven by the fetishisation of technology,
rather than by rigorous assessment of their effectiveness; that they may create significant
opportunities for corruption that vitiate their potential impact; and that they carry significant
opportunity costs. Indeed, precisely because new technology tends to deflect attention away from
more ‘traditional’ strategies, the failure of digital checks and balances often renders an electoral
process even more vulnerable to rigging than it was before.
This fetishisation commonly manifests in the belief that technology will result in perfectly
secure and trusted elections, as legitimate as those in any Western country.
This very rarely happens. Technology does not eliminate the burden of trust, it usually shifts it
from one party to another electronic voting systems may protect against some attacks, but might not
against others.
In several cases, this use of technology introduces its own set of risks, a common concept in risk
management. Attacks evolve with time. Security features that look good on paper may fail in reality
and those that work in one country may not deliver in another. Technology has to be very carefully
adapted to the social and cultural realities of each environment.
Cheeseman quotes various other concerns very relevant to us: election technology is usually
implemented in ways that prioritise efficiency over transparency. The glitter of new technology
tends to distract our attention away from the overall ecosystem that needs to be built to manage and
support the technology.
Indeed, some elements of this ecosystem may require more attention and expense than the
technology itself Deploying technology gives rise to immense new organisational and logistical
challenges that most countries may be unprepared for.
Many electoral commissions rely heavily on international funding and foreign expertise, and
the long-term sustainability of such technology interventions is questionable. Most importantly,
technology will likely not address social and human factors problems such as voter intimidation,
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bribery, coercion, media bias and abuse of state power which are also critical to restoring citizen
confidence in elections.
But Cheeseman is keen to assert that he is not against election technology in principle: ‘These
observations are not intended as a manifesto against the digitisation of elections ... but the analysis
draws attention to the importance of more careful assessments of these problems, as well the
benefits, of such technologies and to the need for more careful planning in their deployment.
This is how we, in Pakistan, need to approach election technology too.
The Way Forward
We need to build capacity on the election technology front. This is hard work but relatively
straightforward. We also need to work on the ecosystem. This is much harder work that requires
research, dialogue, vision and statesmanship.
Election technology has had a very troubled history, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel.
Researchers have finally resolved the Gordian knot, the seemingly impossible conflict between voter
privacy and transparency. There have been revolutionary game-changing developments in the past
decade: it is now possible to maintain voter privacy while also ensuring that votes are not tampered
with.
Researchers have devised ways to crypto graphically track individual votes without revealing
their content whilst also ensuring that they have been correctly counted.
An easy way to picture this is how one can track a courier delivery using a tracking number
with the surprising futuristic feature that the number also serves as a guarantee that no one has
tampered with your package.
This new paradigm of ‘evidence-based elections’ and ‘verifiability’ gives voters ironclad
guarantees that the votes they cast have not been manipulated. Voters no longer have to repose
blind faith in technology and poll workers, they can now audit these systems at home using their
computers or phones. This level of transparency is unprecedented and is a giant step towards
restoring citizen confidence in elections.
When we were authoring our IVTF report in 2018, our foremost recommendation to the ECP
was that it urgently institute a research wing. It’s first mission: to investigate and adapt verifiable
voting systems for Pakistan. Estonia was first to implement this successfully. Other countries are
taking note.
The Indian state of Telangana is actively studying the Estonian system for its own pilot.
Microsoft has partnered with some of the world’s largest election technology vendors to make EVMs
verifiable. It is cause for celebration that our own stakeholders are converging to this technology.
After a few bumpy steps, this is an excellent start to our own election technology journey.
But there is a lot more work to be done.
A Worthwhile Journey
For one, the ECP will require a concerted modernisation drive. It is simply not possible to
deploy electronic voting on a large scale otherwise. The ECP also needs to actively reorient towards
technology.
Thus far, the ECP has a stellar track record of assisting voters with technology, a prime example
being the award-winning 8300 SMS service, which voters use to access their voting information on
their cell phones. But with election technology, for some puzzling reason, the ECP has chosen to
outsource the difficult problems. This has proved counterproductive.
By not cultivating in-house technology expertise, the ECP is forced to look to vendors, who typically
lack expertise in new technologies and are also not familiar with the intricacies and ground realities of
Pakistan’s elections landscape. This automatically restricts options. Tiny tweaks in existing systems are
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possible, but the window for genuine innovation is closed. In a sense, the ECP’s immense technology
dependency is a subtle yet very real limitation on the ECP’s vaunted autonomy.
Second, we need to work hard on the ecosystem. The ECP and the government need to
encourage extensive consultation and wideranging stakeholder participation in every step of the
process. The opposition needs to take up the government’s invitation to discuss electoral reforms.
Election technology is too important to be left solely in the hands of technologists, politicians and
government officials.
President Arif Alvi has taken the lead in bringing the debate to the public. It is equally vital that
civil society assert itself Citizen activists, academics and civil society actually lead election integrity
efforts in countries like the US and India. Fafen’s (Free and Fair Election Network) call ‘for a more
extended public and political discourse’ is certainly very welcome. Pildat (Pakistan Institute of
Legislative Development and Transparency) also recently organised a very successful short course
to kick-start a sustained discussion.
But there is a mountain of research still to be done. We need to build every different kind of
EVM and internet voting system under the sun. We need to trial promising systems at every
possible opportunity, in university elections, trader organisation polls, and bar councils. We need to
conduct high quality pilots with scientific rigour. We need to immerse ourselves in the e-voting
literature and document ecosystem components, best practices, standards and common pitfalls.
We need to build bridges with the international research community, the way Estonia, India
and Australia have done. We need bug bounties and hackathons that meet international standards.
We need usability studies, we need cost-benefits analyses, we need threat models and risk
assessments.
We need to devise mechanisms to facilitate transparency and third-party audits suited to
Pakistan. We need research on logistics, workflow and maintenance. If we’re going to set up one
of the largest EVM deployments in the world over 300,000 machines we need environmental
impact studies.
This list is a long one.
This sort of work genuine research and development to adapt technology to our own unique
and complex ground realities has rarely ever been done before. It is unclear if we even have the
expertise and capacity to undertake such studies. We need to build this culture.
In the West, it is the modus operandi: technology policy is directly informed by high quality
research. Usually this is accomplished via research collabourations, round-table conferences,
seminars, working groups, and public calls for comments. Last year, when South Africa mulled the
introduction of electronic voting, there were over 12,000 submissions from the general public and
civil society.
If this seems like too much work, it is.
If there is one key lesson in the saga of election technology, it is that we cannot afford shortcuts.
We need to follow every process in the book, we need to dot ever i and cross every t. The election
technology ecosystem is typically the most neglected component in deployments.
An easier way to think of this: we don’t just need Estonia-style software to succeed we need to
develop the kind of ethos in which people can innovate such systems and deploy and use them
successfully. We need to inculcate that sense of professionalism, that commitment to transparency and
democracy, those high standards of research and most importantly that sense of vision and depth.
There is an elegant irony in the fact that the real secret to succeeding with election technology is
not just about having the fanciest machine or the most cutting-edge system.
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Rather, it is linked to the quality of our effort, how we engage and collabourate with each other
and our genuine commitment to transparency.
To quote Cheeseman again regarding election technology in Africa: ‘Unsurprisingly, we find
that the greatest gains from digitisation come from countries where the quality of democracy is
higher and the electoral commission more independent.
This journey is not an easy one, but it is very worthwhile this is the real business of democracy.
(Source: Dawn EOS)
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Health Sector
HEALTHCARE AND BUDGET 2021-22
Zafar Mirza (Former SAPM on Health, and currently WHO adviser on Universal Health Coverage)
Pakistan is a known low-spender on health. To put things into perspective, according to
estimates done in 2017-18, Pakistan spent $45 per person on health, while Iran spent $484 and Qatar
spent $1,716 per capita.
However, what minimum amount governments should spend to provide essential healthcare is
debatable. One credible and frequently quoted estimate comes from the High-Level Taskforce on
Innovative International Financing for Health Systems, which stipulates an average figure of $86 per
person (updated in 2012). A more recent estimate from 2017, including investments in the health
system, sets the bar at $271 per person.
What is of note is that $86 is recommended as minimum public-sector spending whereas the
above-mentioned $45 per capita in Pakistan is the total health expenditure. The breakdown is
disturbing: only $14 is spent by the public sector on each citizen annually whereas the citizens
themselves spend $28 (private-sector spending) and a mere $3 comes from external sources.
Such low government spending results in high out-of-pocket expenditures ie around 60 per
cent.
This is where the importance of social health insurance comes for the poor as indicated in my
last article ‘Unpacking social health insurance’ (July 9) on these pages.
While building a universal health coverage investment case recently, the World Bank estimated
that in order to implement the UHC agenda in 40 poor districts of Pakistan over a period of five
years, an additional expense of $17.4 per capita would be required. This would mean more than
doubling of public-sector spending i.e. $31.4.
Regardless of how inflated or conservative these estimates are, the fact remains that by local
standards a huge increase is required in order to advance towards the goal of UHC in Pakistan, yet it
is far below $86. The dividends, however, far outweigh the costs. The above-mentioned additional
public sector spending in 40 districts, for example, would result in 10 pc reduction in stunting, 30 pc
reduction in under-five mortality, 33pc lowering of neonatal mortality, and maternal mortality going
down by 35pc i.e. averting the deaths of 3,306 mothers.
The federal budget 2021-22 has seen an increase of 11pc relative to the previous year. In
nominal terms, the health budget has gone up from around Rs25.5 billion to Rs28.3bn though it is
still a mere 0.4pc of the total budget. The federal development budget (PSDP) has a ‘particular focus
on strengthening the health sector’ and it has seen an increase of 49.6pc ie from Rs14.5bn in 2020-21
to Rs21.7bn, including Rs5.6bn for the Sehat Sahulat Programme. One of the government priorities
for the current fiscal year is impact mitigation of Covid-19.
Rs100bn is dedicated only for Covid-19 related expenditures i.e. almost four times the budget
for routine healthcare.
Punjab, which comprises almost half the population of Pakistan, has increased its budget by a
gargantuan 134pc from Rs156.7bn in 2020-21 to Rs370bn. Likewise, the development programme
budget has seen a huge increase of 182pc. Out of Rs96bn of the development budget, Rs78bn is
allocated for tertiary and only Rs19bn for primary and secondary care. The province aims to provide
social health insurance to the whole population by the end of 2021, an ambitious and misplaced target.
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Rs80bn have been allocated for this purpose and Rs106bn have been put aside for mitigating the
effects of Covid-19.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa increased its health allocation in the provincial budget 2021-22 to
Rs142bn from Rs124bn. The Annual Development Plan (ADP) allocation for health in KP this
financial year is Rs22.4bn. KP has led social health insurance development in the country. This year
the province also announced providing universal health insurance (Sehat Plus Card), which is
debatable for various reasons. They have also added organ transplantation and outpatient health
ser-vices in the insurance coverage.
Sindh increased its budget allocation by 29.5pc ie from Rs132.8bn last year to Rs172bn but also
announced a 30pc increase in the health budget in 2022-23. For the new financial year, Sindh also
pitched Rs18.5bn as its ADP budget for health. This is the only province which has opted out of the
Sehat Sahulat Programme primarily for political reasons, which is sad.
Balochistan has increased its budget by Rs13.2bn (42pc) ie from Rs31.4bn in 2020-21 to Rs44.6bn
in the current year. The ADP for 2021-22 is Rs11.8bn.
Balochistan had not been able to introduce social health insurance under the current
government but finally an amount of Rs5.9bn has been allocated to introduce the Balochistan Health
Card to provide financial protection to 1,875,000 families.
As is obvious, there is an overall upward trend in health budget allocations at the federal and
provincial levels which is good news. Covid-19 has played a significant role in this. The drive to
provide health insurance to the entire population of Punjab and KP has also moved budgets up,
which is a policy that may bring political benefits but it is a flawed approach. Instead, social health
insurance needs to be expanded to ambulatory poor patients in the private sector. Pakistan needs
primary healthcare-based UHC, and for this new health system investments are needed. Much more
attention needs to be given to strengthening primary healthcare where up to 70pc of essential
healthcare can be delivered.
Another extremely important issue is that of huge inefficiencies in the health sector. According
to one estimate 20pc to 40pc of health spending is wasted one way or the other. Spending less and
wasting up to 40pc speaks volumes about the state of governance and poor management. Not only
do we need more money for health but also need more health for the money spent.
Pakistan has to go a long way in terms of allocating enough public money to achieve UHC.
Once it becomes a fiscal priority it will also find fiscal space.
(Source: Dawn)

THE MALNUTRITION CRISIS

Dr Rejja Irfan (General secretary of the Zain Ul Haq Foundation)
Since independence, the provision of health infrastructures has improved over time but remains
inadequate, particularly in rural areas. An important index of health and nutritional status of a
community is its “under-five mortality rate.” For Pakistan, it is 137 for 1,000 births. That is very high,
by international standards. According to nation-wide food consumption surveys done by Pakistan’s
Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, 40 percent of children in Pakistan are
underweight and over half of the children are affected by stunting. Our country has made some
progress in the recent years but 37.6 percent of children under 5 years of age are still affected. The
prevalence of malnutrition and stunted growth seems to have a positive correlation with the level of
development in a provinces, being lowest in the Punjab and highest in Balochistan.
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Did you know that cereals provide 62 percent of energy and remain the main staple food in
Pakistan? Studies show that compared to other Asian countries, milk consumption is extremely high
in Pakistan, whereas consumption of fruits and vegetables, fish and meat remains very low. One of
the reasons for this is seasonal availability and lack of organised marketing facilities in the country.
It is no secret that Pakistan is facing a crisis in terms of malnutrition that is among the worst in the
world. Many studies have been done over the years for us to understand the roots of this crisis.
According to published articles, most of the factors are preventable. Some of the factors that account
for malnutrition in our country are mother’s age at time of marriage, number of children she has, level
of mother’s education and her nutritional and socioeconomic status. We are seeing more done about
women’s health and education; however, it is not enough. Unfortunately, this is more of a problem in
our rural areas, where some women still are not allowed to get an education and underage marriages
are more frequent. Lack of education robs them of the ability to be healthy or choose a healthy future
for their children. There is also a lack of awareness about basic and important things like prenatal and
regular appointments with gynaecologist during pregnancy and exclusive breastfeeding for the first
few months to boost their immune system, which foods to eat and feed a child in order to avoid sub-
clinical deficiencies in nutrients such as vitamins A and D, zinc and iron.
Another factor is overpopulation. As a result of high birth rate, 60 percent of Pakistan’s
population is still under the age of 30. This has dangerous consequences because more resources are
required to raise more children. With nearly 39 percent of families living in poverty, it is not easy to
provide for so many children. Hence, more children end up hungry and severely malnourished.
Besides lack of education and basic knowledge of health, one of the reasons for our overpopulation
crisis, is the fact that family planning is still taboo in parts of the country.
According to the United Nations, women are expected to have as many children as possible
during the child-bearing age. As a result 70 percent of them use no contraceptives. It wasn’t until
2012, with the help of Family Planning 2020 programme that Pakistan made a commitment to
increase fertility management and education. The Supreme Court of Pakistan proposed a two-child
limit on families at one point, but this was met with strong opposition. The United Nations has
predicted that at the going rate, Pakistan’s population will rise to 400 million by 2050. That will
make it ten times harder to tackle the issue of malnutrition and hunger in Pakistan. Policy changes
are critical as how we deal with this situation will affect the world the next generation will inherit.
From a medical point of view, the vast number of malnourished children will have very low
immunity. Their bodies will never receive the proper nutrients, maternal antibodies or vitamins in
order to be strong enough to fight diseases in general. The cases of rickets (bowed legs), short
stature, asthma, upper respiratory tract illnesses and pneumonia are higher in malnourished
children. The UNICEF executive director, Henrietta Fore, has said, “Despite all the technological,
cultural and social advances of the last few decades, we have lost sight of this most basic fact: If
children eat poorly, they live poorly.”
Some wonderful NGOs and individuals are trying to combat hunger and malnourishment in
Pakistan. An excellent example is Rizq. In 2015, Huzaifa Ahmad, a student from the LUMS, had the
idea of gathering leftovers from people and giving them to people in need. When Covid-19 hit
Pakistan, government and other individuals approached Rizq and asked them to help distribute food
rations in 23 cities. To put about 600 tonnes of excess food to good use, is surely an achievement.
Population control, better access to education, healthcare, and affordable quality food are
essential in tackling this crisis. What can you do? Don’t throw away your leftover food, give
generously, spread awareness about family planning, visit your doctor regularly and educate your
children about their health and nutritional needs. (Source: TNS)
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History
SIR SYED AHMAD KHAN AND ARRESTED MODERNITY
Tahir Kamran (Professional Historian and Author)
Was there any interface between Sir Syed Ahmad Khan and the modernist impulse that
sprouted from the Delhi College (its original name was Madressah Ghaziuddin)? The question
remains unanswered to this day. That serves as an entry point for us to venture into an uncharted
area of Muslim intellectual history in South Asia.
In the adolescence and youth of Sir Syed Ahmad Khan, the Delhi College near the Ajmeri Gate
had emerged as a symbol of North Indian modernity, extracted primarily from the Muslim plural
tradition. I call North Indian Muslim tradition plural because it had come about as a convergence of
Indian, Persian, Turkish and Arabic epistemic as well as cultural streams. Besides, as one can infer
from Margrit Pernau’s edited volume, The Delhi College: Traditional Elites, the Colonial State, and
Education before 1857, there was a prominent fifth stream - that of Western epistemology.
One can’t rule out the plausibility of Sir Syed having imbibed influence from an institution that
functioned in his native city. Urdu was the medium of instruction and translation of the Western
sources of knowledge was the mainstay of Delhi College. Several Europeans were teaching there
and along with humanities and classic literature, education in science subjects was emphasised. Dr
Sprenger who took charge of the college in 1845 as its principal and acted in that capacity for two
and a half years, was one such example.
Intezar Husain, while shedding light on the Delhi College states, “In 1824, a non-religious
educational madressah under the name of Delhi College was founded in Delhi. It was the first
secular educational institution in India where all subjects, Eastern as well as Western, scientific, and
non-scientific, were taught in Urdu. This required collaboration among the European
administrators, local teachers, and students to translate and publish texts on scientific, social and
literary subjects.”
These initiatives, taken ab intio by the Delhi College management, seemed to have inspired Sir
Syed Ahmad Khan. Margrit Pernau writes, “The very establishment of the (Delhi) college can be
read as an attempt to translate British culture and scholarship for an Indian audience.” What it
means is that Delhi College was acting as a locus for synthesis between the Eastern and Western
intellectual traditions so that the indigenous ethos might gain a new impetus to rejuvenate itself.
Sir Syed shared this conviction. His thoughts are spelt out by the thinker and writer, Christian
W Troll. He writes, “best of Western civilisation could be and should be assimilated by Muslims
since Islam, properly understood, the ‘pure’ Islam of the Prophet (peace be upon him), his
Companions and early Followers, did not clash with it. Thus, his endeavours practically aimed at
replication of Delhi College in Aligarh. The only difference might be the anti-British stance of some
of Delhi College’s alumni like Mullah Muhammad Baqir, the father of Muhammad Hussain Azad.
That primarily was the reason that Delhi College was closed down after the War of Independence.
But that great institution kept on living in the reform process, triggered by Sir Syed from the 1860s
onwards.
It must be borne in mind that the social sensibility professed by Sir Syed remained entrenched
in tradition. He wanted to employ (instrumental) modernity to invigorate tradition. To put it
differently, Sir Syed remained committed to lend sustenance to Muslim ‘nation’ and the idea (Islam)
underpinning it (he used nation as a category rather than ‘civilisation’) by re-inventing it through
rationality.
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Altaf Hussain Hali’s view about Sir Syed needs to be noted here. He considered him ‘the heroic’
revitaliser of his community (qaum) who restored to his community self-respect and honour within
the British India and, thus, an exemplar for the rising young Muslim Indian generation. He did not
approve of ‘rationality’ to pervade the inner (socio-moral) sanctum of the Indian Muslim society.
Unlike the Hindu reform movements, like Brahmo Samaj and Arya Samaj, Sir Syed was far too
conservative when it came to the education for Muslim women. Socially, he belonged to the Muslim
ashrafia and represented their viewpoint instead of devising a strategy to include lower (or middle)
classes in his reform agenda. In view of this, what Sir Syed Ahmad Khan propounded in the 1870s
and 1880s was an ‘arrested modernity’.
Another important point was Sir Syed’s acceptance of ‘the results of post-Newtonian natural
science as established truth.’ He used those results to justify the need for metaphysical interpretation
(tawil) of Biblical and Quranic texts as the revealed word of God, which were, as Troll maintains,
“freed from the distortions of an erroneous dogmatic interpretation, and in the light of the uniquely
clear Quranic message of God’s unity, the gospel of Jesus continues to be relevant.” That ignited a
storm of protests by the traditional ulema across North India.
Since each religion claims the exclusive possession of final ‘saving’ truth, that persuaded Sir
Syed to postulate reason (aql) as the ultimate criterion of the truth. For Sir Syed, reason is nothing
but the “law of nature”, at least potentially accessible in full to the human rational faculty. Therefore,
any contravention of the “law of nature” would mean a breach of God’s promise, which obviously is
beyond the realm of possibility.
Such all-inclusive, fully determined set of natural laws would mean refutation of miracles or
any supernatural events. For him, the credibility of the Quran is based not on miracles but on the
intrinsic value of its content. In the same way, unsurpassable greatness of the Prophet (peace be
upon him) lies in the essential nature of his teaching and the way he made a valiant moral effort to
disseminate it.
Here, it must be clarified that Sir Syed segregated ‘theological’ from ‘social’. Rationality’s
domain was confined only to the ‘theological’ whereas he kept on pleading ‘social’ to be regulated
through the customs and the conventions of yore. Rationality for him was instrumental to the hilt.
Sir Syed propound a new ilm-ul-Kalam in which rationality and revelation were presented as the
two sides of the same coin. I argue, contrary to the prevalent view that Sir Syed, despite having given
significance to rationality, steadfastly adhered to tradition embedded in revealed texts. Throughout his
disputations, he seems to be in pursuit of the ultimate ‘truth’ enshrined in the revealed texts. He
treated rationality as an instrument whereby truth could be ascertained and verified.
The modern sciences had become an essential part of the general instruction in Northern India
in the first half of the 19th Century not only in the government-run institutions but also in
missionary schools. Many of the tenets of science imparted at various levels appeared to contradict
“even the reduced body of truly revealed, prophetical texts.”
That situation uncannily resembled the earlier clash in the Islamic history of Greek philosophy,
including the sciences and the truth enshrined in the Quranic revelation. Syed Ahmad Khan become
cognizant of that problem in the 1840s and ’50s but he tried to address it in full earnestness in Tabyin
al-Kalam. In 1848, he produced a tiny tract Qaul-i-Matin, in which he defended the Ptolemeon
weltanschauung on philosophical and scientific grounds alone. But when he embraced the truth
claims foregrounded as an outcome of the Copernican revolution, “it became impossible to avoid a
reassessment of the customary interpretation of many revealed passages.”
Sir Syed tried to resolve the conflict between the text of revelation and the findings of the
empirical sciences. Christian W Troll has put together a few postulates that Sir Syed formulated to
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bring knowledge bequeathed to humanity through revelation and the verifiable truth claims
propounded by the empirical sciences.
Regarding the practice of taawil, Sir Syed was of the view that close enquiry into the use and
meaning of the Quranic language yields the true meaning of the word or passage in question, that is,
the meaning that does not contradict the truth which has been established decisively by modern
science. This meaning, although only discovered now, was in fact intended by the Supreme body
from whom the revelation originated. What it actually means is the scientifically verified knowledge
had already existed in the revealed texts, which science could manage to discover much later.
Here Sir Syed accords primacy to the revealed sources rather than empirical sciences. Then Sir
Syed asserted quite emphatically that the revealed sources (read texts) and the modern sciences
referred to the same kind of verifiable, factual, descriptive truth about an objective world, and thus
cannot refute each other. Discrepancy and contradictions are merely superficial and arose from a
misrepresentation of the revealed texts.
Sir Syed advocated the scientific rationality as a valid criterion to interpret revealed texts. If
there are several interpretations available, the one closer to the scrutiny of scientific criterion gets
precedence. Here he sees correspondence in rational proof (aqli dalil) and the law of nature. Here Sir
Syed appears ambivalent because he does not define ‘reason’ and ‘nature’ in clear terms. To him, the
modern sciences establish truths that claim the same degree of certainty as the first principles
(awwaliyat) of classical philosophy.
Those interested in Muslim philosophy can draw out some commonality between Sir Syed
Ahmad Khan’s conception of the relationship of the revealed knowledge and empirical sciences and
that of Ibn Rushd (1126-1198), an Andalusian polymath of Berber descent. Ibn Rushd’s influential
commentaries and unique interpretations on Aristotle revived Western scholarly interest in the ancient
Greek philosophy, whose works for the most part, had been neglected since the sixth century.
In simpler terms, Ibn Rushd asserted the correspondence between the demonstrative and
scriptural truth. They cannot conflict and if the apparent meaning of scripture conflicts with
demonstrative conclusions, it must be interpreted metaphorically.
Lastly, Sir Syed despite espousing rationality (ta’aqul), does not rate scriptural texts lower than
sciences. To a believer, a scripture enjoins to contemplate and to improve his knowledge of it and does
all that it takes to know God and His law. Demonstrative philosophy on which the new (empirical)
sciences are predicated is only one of the main sources of our understanding of the ‘truth’.
The general propensity of Sir Syed Ahmad Khan’s religious thought towards rationality came
to prominence in the early 1860s. However, only from the 1870s onwards does reason assume in his
thought the position of the final and universal criterion of truth and the law of nature assumes the
character of uniformity and inviolability.
The new, radical position is stated in the introduction to Khutabat-i-Ahmadiya (1870). The
reflection upon the plurality of religions claiming exclusive truth, together with his own search for
one, essential and true religion persuaded him to hold reason (aql) to be the final criterion of the
truth. The only reliable means of choosing between the various claims to essential truth is a principle
which would underlie the truth of all. This principle, as far as a man through his rational powers can
know, is nothing but the law of nature.
Nature or the law of nature alludes to the wonderful harmony of the whole world of matter and
spirit. That was the reason his detractors mocked him as naturi. Having said that, Sir Syed’s prime
concern remained Indian Muslims and he was in reactive mode vis a vis Christian missionaries and
people like William Muir, who authored a disparaging treatise on the Holy Prophet (peace be upon
him). While holding firm on the supra natural status of God and the Quran, he seemed to have
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accommodated rationality in his epistemic trope but just as an instrument. Primacy for Sir Syed was
the revealed truth, strongly entrenched in socio-political context.
(Source: TNS)

JINNAH’S VISION OF ECONOMIC EQUALITY

Dr Noor Fatima (Political economist and winner of prestigious Martin Luther King Award, United States)
It was the time to face the challenge. All philosophies of development were aimed at providing
humanity with a better quality of life so the economic transformation of Pakistan was a vision of
Quaid-i-Azam. Investing in the future through education, eradicate poverty and building
infrastructure was the basic motive. Quaid-i-Azam was not an economist to discuss the details about
the economic growth, inflation, current account deficit etc. However, the economic vision could be
seen in his decisions, particularly when he joined the Muslim League as a politician. During his
student life in England, Jinnah found the concept of equal economic opportunities quite impressive.
He observed the significance of investing in future and dividends of equity from there. Jinnah was
very clear that providing equity to people is more important than landing on the moon. Though
people may not find any economic plan of the Muslim League but as a leader, Jinnah wanted
Pakistan to emerge as a progressive and economically viable country that gives equal opportunities
to all citizens. He belonged to a business family and was well aware of the benefits of a business and
trade than finding just clerical jobs. Zawwar H. Zaidi a prominent author has referred that for him
“commerce and trade are the life-blood of the Nation.”
The concept of development and welfare was manifested in his many speeches, press
statements, and also referred in various studies. Khilji (2005) has broadly categorised Jinnah’s vision
to be followed to build a welfare state:
(1) The government elected by the people will not allow landholders and capitalists to flourish
at the expense of the masses.
(2) An economic system based on the Islamic concept of equality and social justice.
3) A major role of the public sector is the fair distribution of the resources between the haves
and have-nots. If we take a look at economic planning for the last seven decades, we can find many
economic plans since 1950.
The economic planners in the 1960s believed that growth can be assured through a conventional
economic approach or trickle-down approach which suggests tax breaks and benefits are given to
the industries, large businesses and corporations so that wealthy people earn more and its effects go
down to everyone. With less regulation, laws, and tax cuts, these policies ultimately were criticised
for adding more benefit for the richer and increasing inequality for the rest. As many as 43 richer
families emerged out of this plan. This inequality was reflected in political unrest and later in
political and economic development from the 1970s onwards. Simon Kuznets, a development
economist mentioned that since economic growth increases, therefore initially inequality increases
but with the state interventions, it can generate trickle-down effects. The economic planning of the
1970s was focused on the contrary, nationalization of the industries, termination of export bonus,
removal of subsidies granted to the industries previously. Efforts were made to de-link financial
capital and industries to ensure equitable distribution of income, but it did not work and resultantly
two major economic sectors i.e. industrial and agricultural production declined. Public investment
declined and government could not motivate domestic saving either, with declining GDP and the
increasing saving-investment gap, economic inequality was revealed. Nevertheless, some studies
show that there was a change in income inequality and comparatively it decreased in 1970. There
was a continuity of denationalisation during the 1980s also, though the purpose was to get
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sustainable growth and reduce inequality. At the same time, it could be seen that agreements with
IMF and World Bank meanwhile Pakistani currency was devalued by 20 % and started to adopt the
policy of “Washington Consensus”.
The policy of privatization, deregulation and trade and financial liberalization continued under
this consensus as by this time it was a debt burden economy and Pakistan has to implement further
IMF stabilization program during the 1990s. The phenomena of the middle class started
disappearing and the structural adjustment program of IMF was being implemented without human
face adjustment. This was the period when economic inequality in urban and rural both rose to the
highest as compared to previous decades.
During last one decade of 2000 onwards. Pakistan is experiencing “Stop-go” growth. The more
liberal and outward-oriented economic policy has been followed in the decade of 2000s, however,
there were certain pre-requisite for the implementation for these programs which the economic
managers have not bothered about while wishing the path of recovery. In my view, the constraints
of the traditional economic system and fragility of the low-income group created dual constraints to
structural reforms of Pakistan which started in the 1990s and continued in 2000. Structural reforms
with human face adjustment with high economic growth are pre-conditions which was missing.
This provides the reforms to be implemented gradually to drive economic growth and phasing out
the old system. It had to be balanced with short term and long term programs to harmonise with the
growth and economic equality objectivity. The earthshaking impact of the privatisation particularly
of the power sector was avoidable which we now witness in the giant impact of circular debt. There
was always caution against such adjustment and reforms though.
The present state of poverty shared by Pakistan National Human Development Report 2020, as
per the recent data the poorest 1 per cent of the population, who hold only 0.15 per cent of the
national income, compared to the richest 1 per cent, whose share of national income exceeded 9 per
cent in 2018-2019... the income of the richest 10 per cent of Pakistan’s population is over 30 per cent
more than that of the total income of the poorest 40 per cent of the population. Resultantly the
middle class is squeezing in Pakistan which makes 42 per cent share of Pakistan population as per
estimate 2007-08. This share of the middle class is declined to 36 per cent by the year 2018-19,
implying that the middle class is increasingly being ‘squeezed’.
Taking a glance at Pakistan’s economic policy vis-a-vis promoting equality a rough sketch of the
Pakistan economic plans shows that Pakistan has struggled to develop a sustainable economic plan for
the structural transformation. Five years of economic plans starting from the 1950s to 2025, developed
a growth and development strategy, however, distinctive features of the economic transformation
were not properly addressed by the economic planners of Pakistan and none of the core features of the
Quaid-i-Azam’s economic vision were closely bridged. Currently, economic inequality is rising
critically. There is a great potential for growth with equal opportunities, and real worth is its people.
We are facing two different Pakistans in terms of equality. We need to map out an economic vision
with more of an equality impact to attract foreign investors. It will help in promoting the institutional-
based transformation of the economy. Pakistan needs to adhere to the Quaid’s vision of growth as well
as global commitments such as SDGs, to emerge as a real welfare state.
(Source: The News Supplement)

ROLE OF MUSLIM WOMEN IN THE CREATION OF PAKISTAN

In the 1937 Elections the Muslim League had won only 108 out of 484 Muslim seats. This was a
depressing result for a party that considered itself to be the main representative of the Muslims of
India. This set back convinced Mr Jinnah of the need to reorganize the Muslim League so that it
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could win the next elections. One of the measures that he decided to focus upon involved the
creation of a Muslim women’s vote bank.
As numerical strength is the backbone of any political movement, he sought to facilitate the
mass enrolment of Muslim women into the AIML- recognizing this as an untapped force that could
prove to be a source of strength for the Muslim League. It would serve the dual purpose of helping
to increase the party’s numerical strength at its political rallies, while also swelling the size of its
vote bank in the upcoming elections. Consequently, in its Patna session in December 1938, the AIML
decided to set up the All India Muslim Women’s Sub-Committee. This, in turn, established Central,
Provincial and District Sub-Committees for the purpose of infusing political awakening among
Muslim women. It is heartening to note that the women, most of whom had hardly ever stepped out
of their homes, responded to this call with fervour and enthusiasm.
Therefore, by the time the decision was taken to hold a massive jalsa in Lahore in March 1940,
Muslim women had acquired a sound understanding of the political issues involved in the Muslims’
demand for a separate homeland as well as their fundamental differences with the Hindus. The
Punjab Provincial Women’s Sub-Committee held a special meeting for preparing themselves to
receive, accommodate and look after the large number of Muslim women who were expected to
come from all parts of the country to attend the forthcoming historic session in March. In addition,
prominent women took it upon themselves to visit the far flung areas to mobilise Muslim women in
the rural areas. As a result of these measures and similar efforts in other provinces, the Lahore
Session was characterized by the huge number of Muslim women who came from all over India to
attend it. Syed Sharif-ud-din Pirzada, reported that on 22nd March 1940, its opening day, the
“special feature of the Session was the appearance of such a large number of Muslim women in a
public function of this sort.” This session was truly historic in the sense that here, for the first time,
the AIML declared that the achievement of an independent Muslim state was now to be its stated
goal. On the issue of women’s participation in this endeavour, the Quaid-i-Azam said, “I believe that
it is absolutely essential for us to give every opportunity to our women to participate in our struggle
of life and death.”
In 1941, Lady Abdul Qadir, Fatima Begum and Miss M. Qureshi were instrumental in forming
the Muslim Girl Students’ Federation. According to The Indian Annual Register, vol. I, 1942, in a few
months almost 1000 students were enrolled from Jinnah Islamia College alone. This Federation
proved very useful in helping to hold political meetings for Muslim women. Further, its members
set up primary branches in various girls’ schools and colleges, thereby creating a general sense of
political awareness among the Muslim girl students in Lahore. Subsequently, its members also
toured the countryside during their summer vacations to convey the AIML’s message to the rural
masses. Therefore, in a way, this Federation became a nursery for producing the future crop of
Muslim women politicians.
On 21st November 1942, Mr Jinnah addressed a large gathering of Muslim women and girl
students in Lahore, as a result of which the Muslim women’s activities entered a new phase.
Henceforth, the members of each Provincial Sub-Committee undertook a series of tours to the major
districts of the Province to set up primary Leagues, and also educate the local women about the
significance of the Pakistan Resolution. Consequently, a massive increase in the enrolment of
Muslim women into the AIML was achieved in a very short time and, “eventually the bulk of the
women community which had hitherto lived in oblivion was awakened from slumber and lethargy
…. The message of the Muslim League reached the remotest villages of the Punjab.”
On 21 August 1945, Lord Wavell, the Viceroy, declared that elections to the Central and
Provincial Legislatures would be held in the coming winter. The AIML’s claim of being the sole
representative of the Indian Muslims could only be borne out if it achieved outright success in the
forthcoming elections. And this success would be dependent three aspects – massive enrolment of
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its supporters; collection of funds; and the putting in place of an organisation that would
successfully conduct the fight on the actual polling day.
Muslim women contributed significantly in all three aspects. Firstly, as the AIML had already
consolidated its support among urban Muslim women, it was decided to concentrate more on the
enrolment of Muslim women in the rural areas where the large majority of potential voters resided.
While the Primary and District Leagues did their duty, women leaders, from prominent Muslim
families, were dispatched to the countryside to motivate the rural women. Secondly, In response to
Mr Jinnah’s statement that “elections cannot be fought without money,” the Central and Provincial
Women’s Sub-Committees began a well planned fund raising campaign in their respective cities and
towns. As the NWFP was a Muslim majority province, which otherwise was a stronghold of the
Congress Party, it merited special attention. As reported in the Inqilab newspaper of 28 November
1945, A delegation of women leaders from the Punjab, led by Lady Abdullah Haroon, visited
Peshawar, Nowshera and Mardan from 17 to 19 October, to motivate the local Muslim women to
support the AIML. Its meeting were attended by a large number of Pathan women who had come
from far flung areas for this purpose. They pledged their allegience and contributed a hefty sum of
Rs 3500 (which was considered to be a substantial amount in those days). Finally, practical measures
were put in place to successfully conduct the fight on the actual polling day. As the Punjab was the
crucial province for the Muslims, the AIML decided to win here at all cost. Although it had a
Muslim majority, it was ruled by the Unionist Party with the support of a powerful non-Muslim
element. Consequently, the Provincial Women’s Sub-Committee chalked out a detailed plan of
action at an extraordinary meeting held at Lahore on 4 January 1946, under the leadership of Begum
Bashir Ahmad. Its representatives visited the constituencies of all Muslim candidates, while laying
greater emphasis on those areas where the actual candidates could not visit for any reason. The
Punjab Muslim Girl Students’ Federation and the WNG cooperated with and supported the Primary
Leagues in this endeavour, under the leadership of Miss Riffat Bashir, the Chief Salar of the Punjab
WNG. During the actual voting phase, Muslim women not only supervised the proceedings at the
polling stations, but also formed several groups that were specifically tasked to bring voters from
their homes to the polling stations and then escort them back to their homes. As a result, the AIML’s
candidates received 98% of the Muslim women’s votes cast in the Punjab. Both Begum Salma
Tasaddaque and Begum Jahanara Shahnawaz, the two women who had been granted tickets by the
Punjab Muslim League Parliamentary Board, won their seats with a thumping majority. Overall, the
AIML emerged as the undisputed representative of the Muslims of India, winning all 30 Muslim
seats in the Central Legislature and 428 out of the combined total of 492 seats in the Provincial
Legislatures. In the Punjab itself, the AIML won 79 of the 86 Muslim seats. Thus Mr Jinnah’s vision
of creating a women’s vote bank, and using it to help the AIML to win the next election, was fully
validated. And yet, its benefits were not automatically passed on to the AIML.
By winning 79 out of the 175 seats in the Punjab Legislature the Muslim League emerged as the
biggest group in the province and was expecting to be invited to form the provincial government.
Instead, the Governor allowed the Union Party, in alliance with the Congress and the Akali Sikhs to
form a coalition government. This created considerable resentment among the Muslim population
that had voted overwhelmingly for the Muslim League, enabling it to win 79 out of the 86 Muslim
seats. As a result, meetings were held and processions taken out to protest against the imposition of
a non-Muslim League government. The Provincial Women’s Sub-Committee joined the fray and,
besides passing a resolution on 8th March 1946 condemning this “unconstitutional and unjust act,” it
also took out a peaceful procession by 500 Muslim women and girl students outside the Chief
Minister’s residence. This feeling of discontent continued to simmer for the next few months amidst
an atmosphere of political tension. The situation took a turn for the worse when, on 24 January 1947,
the Unionist Government banned the Muslim League National Guard and declared its flag and
uniform as being illegal. When the Muslim League’s leaders resisted, the Police arrested Khan
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Iftikhar Husain Khan, Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan, Malik Feroze Khan Noon, Mian Iftikhar-ud-Din,
Mian Mumtaz Daultana, Sayyid Amir Hasan Shah and Begum Jahanara Shahnawaz. On the same
day, another police party raided the residence of Sayyid Amir Hasan Shah where the women leaders
of the Muslim League drew lots to decide as to whom among them should have the privilege of
offering voluntary arrest. As a result Begum Kamal-ud-Din, a visiting leader from the NWFP, was
arrested. On the next day large gatherings of Muslim women and college girls took out peaceful
processions in the streets and bazaars of Lahore chanting slogans such as, “Lay kar rahain gay
Pakistan.” Even though they were baton charged, tear gassed and four women were arrested, they
were not intimidated.
On the same day Begum Salma Tasaddaqque, along with 15 other Muslim women, was arrested
and Section 144 imposed in Lahore. As the main leaders were arrested, other well known women such
as Begum Bashir Ahmad, Begum Viqar-un-Nisa Noon, Begum Shaukat Hayat and some women
leaders from other provinces stepped into the breach. They continued with the policy of mounting
peaceful processions and protest demonstrations. On 14th February 1946, three young burqa clad girls
entered the goal premises where the arrested women leaders were being kept, climbed the building
and hoisted the League flag shouting “Allah-o-Akbar” (God is great). They were dragged off and
beaten up. This led to a massive procession by Muslim women that continued on its path towards the
Secretariat, inspite of being heavily baton charged. Later, a thirteen year old girl named Fatima Sughra,
climbed the gate of the Secretariat, removed the Union Jack and replaced it with the League flag. This
was the first time ever that the Muslim League flag had flown over a government building in place of
the Union Jack. Eventually, the Punjab Government felt compelled to release all the arrested leaders on
26 February 1947. The contribution of the Muslim women of the Punjab, in this phase of street
agitation, can best be summed up in the following words, “The women – old and young, educated and
illiterate, aristocratic and poor – unflinchingly joined in and spearheaded the agitation after the arrest
of the Provincial Muslim League leaders, with complete harmony and unanimity”.
Although most of the activities described above took place in Lahore and Karachi, the Muslim
women of the NWFP also played a crucial role, both during the election campaign of 1945-6 and the
Referendum of July 1947, including the civil disobedience campaign that preceded it. Inspite of the
fact that the Pathan women were relatively late starters, having entered into the political fray very
close to the 1946 Elections, the Muslim League’s Provincial Women’s Sub-Committee fulfilled its
role in a remarkable manner. It arranged meetings in Peshawar, Mardan, Bannu, Kohat, Abbotabad,
Nowshera, Dera Ismail Khan and many far flung areas, and launched a determined election
campaign that preached the Muslim League’s political message in every city and village. However,
the final election results were a bit disappointing, in the sense that the Muslim League could win
only 17 out of a total of 36 seats. This allowed the Congress to continue forming the Government
under Dr Khan, in a Muslim majority province.
The Civil Disobedience Campaign that the Punjab Muslim League had started against the
Unionist-Congress-Akali Sikh coalition government in the province had its effect on the populace of
the NWFP. Here too a Congress led government was ruling a Muslim majority province.
Consequently, in the wake of mounting public resentment against the Government’s repressive
actions in the Hazara District, its restrictions on the holding of Muslim League meetings and
demonstrations, and the arrest of Khan Abdul Qayum Khan along with several other Muslim
League leaders in February 1947, the decision was taken to mount a civil disobedience campaign
against the Provincial Government. The Muslim women of the Province surprised everyone by the
extent and effectiveness of their participation. On 20th February 1947, when the women of Mardan
took out a procession in defiance of Section 144, they signalled the new parameters of their
participation. This was soon followed by an even more surprising development when, in March
1947, a group of 30 unveiled Pathan women commenced their march from the residence of Begum
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Abdul Waheed, President of the Peshawar City Women’s Sub-Committee, and walked in the various
bazaars and streets of the City. Similar processions took place on 12th, 13th and 15th March 1947.
While old men shed tears, the excited masses joined the women and swelled their numbers. The
women retained their composure, discipline and determination even when they were baton charged,
tear gassed and on one occasion, even fired at. They picketed the police stations and mounted
protests in front of the Civil Secretariat. They soon developed a routine of violating Section 144 in
front of the District Courts and hoisting Muslim League flags on Government buildings. On 1st
April 1947 the Provincial Women’s Sub-Committee held a meeting presided over by its President,
Begum Khawaja Allah Bux. This was attended by a large number of women who passed a resolution
asking the Chief Minister, Dr Khan to resign and hold fresh elections. Two days later a procession of
about 1500 women marched to the Chief Minister’s residence and hoisted the Muslim League flag
over it. On 9th April another large women’s procession, under Fatima Begum, condemned the
Government’s “unwarranted and uncalled for black laws”. The process was repeated on 14th, 22nd
and 23rd April 1947. In addition to these activities, the Muslim women of the NWFP also formed a
secret organization called the ‘War Council,’ which was tasked with mounting a campaign against
the Government. This set up an underground radio station called the ‘Pakistan Broadcasting
Station,’ and used it to broadcast daily news bulletins in favour of Pakistan and provide details of
the ongoing civil disobedience campaign.
The success of the civil disobedience campaign eventually compelled the Viceroy to visit the
NWFP towards the end of April 1947, to see things for himself. He was greeted by a massive crowd
of well over 70,000 Muslim League sympathizers, and was astonished to see such a large number of
women amongst them. A delegation of the women’s representatives created history by first meeting
the Governor and later the Viceroy. This visit led to the British Government’s decision to hold a
Referendum in the NWFP, in order to give its people a chance to decide whether they wanted to join
Pakistan or not. The Pathan women, in response to Mr Jinnah’s personal appeal of 3rd June 1947,
recast their efforts to urge, not only their sisters, but also their brothers, husbands, and sons to vote
for Pakistan. The Muslim League won the Referendum that was held in July 1947, by an
overwhelming majority of both the male and female votes.
In conclusion it needs to be stated that, at the time of Partition, Muslim women formed a very
important group within the Pakistan Movement due to their marked contribution towards its success.
They were recognized, heard and addressed as a separate entity in their own right and, at that point in
time, there were no restrictions on Muslim women travelling alone to attend political rallies.
Their remarkable contribution to the AIML’s outright victory in the 1946 general elections, and
their surprisingly effective participation in the civil disobedience movements against the non-
Muslim League governments of the Punjab and NWFP, had earned them the admiration of the
Muslim leadership. Logically, this should have enhanced their level of political empowerment in the
new state of Pakistan. However, the reality, as we know, was to be somewhat different. Soon after
independence and the Quaid’s death in 1948, women experienced an abrupt end to this temporary
political freedom and had to wait till Imran Khan and Tahirul Qadri’s ‘dharnas’ in 2014 to exercise a
similar level of political participation.

CONTEMPLATING THE PHILOSOPHERS OF

THE GOLDEN AGE OF ISLAM
Dr Wardella Doschek (Author of Straight and Sensible: My Journey to the Straight Path of Islam)
“Three things are necessary for the salvation of man: to know what he ought to believe; to know
what he ought to desire; and to know what he ought to do.”
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“The foundation of all foundations and the pillar of wisdom is to know that there is a Primary
Being who brought all existence into being.”
“Four traits lift a person to the highest ranks, even if their works and knowledge are little:
forbearance, humility, generosity, and good character. This is the perfection of faith.”
These three quotations comprise a part of a thought experiment proposed by Akbar Ahmed in
his latest book, The Flying Man, Aristotle, and the Philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam: Their
Relevance Today. The above mentioned three quotations are taken from the writings of Al-Ghazali,
a prominent Muslim philosopher; from the works of Maimonides, the most important Jewish
philosopher of that age; and from Saint Thomas Aquinas, the most significant philosopher of the
Catholic Church. All three great philosophers belong to the Golden Age of Islam, but it is impossible
to tell while reading the quotations that which of the three quotations was written by which
philosopher as their sayings are demonstrating the great commonalities among Christianity,
Judaism, and Islam. (The first quotation is by Aquinas, the second one is by Maimonides, and the
third one is by Al-Ghazali).
During the Golden Age of Islam, traditionally dated from the ninth century to the thirteenth
century, and relatively coexist with the Middle or so-called Dark Ages in Europe from the fifth to the
fifteenth centuries, an enormous number of scholars and philosophers have lived and worked
together, primarily in the Muslim world. They were influenced by each other and, particularly by
the works of the Greek philosophers who had lived many centuries before them. Without the work
of these great polymaths, it is entirely possible that the wisdom of the Greeks would have vanished.
Not only did the Muslim philosophers translate the work of the Greek philosophers, they greatly
expanded on it while laying the groundwork for the eventual Renaissance in Europe.
Akbar Ahmed, Ibn Khaldun Chair of Islamic Studies at American University, is a widely
recognized and highly regarded anthropologist, Islamic scholar, poet, playwright, and filmmaker.
He has also been a bridge builder among people and faiths throughout his entire career. To utilize
his time during the Corona Virus pandemic, Ahmed decided to study the plethora of philosophers
who worked and interacted during the Golden Age of Islam. He chose four Muslim philosophers for
extended studies: Avicenna, Al-Ghazali, Averroes, and Ibn-Arabi, in addition to Maimonides
(Judaism) and Aquinas (Christianity). The perception in most of the West is that Islam has little to
offer except hatred and violence. Similar to Ahmed’s previous works, The Flying Man reiterates how
incorrect the perception of West about Islam is.
The flying man, referred to in the title, is a thought experiment proposed by Avicenna. If a man
is created by God in space with his limbs outstretched, unable to see or hear; would he still be aware
of his existence? Avicenna argued that although the man may not be aware of his body, he will still
be aware of the existence of his “self” or “soul.”
All the philosophers of the Golden Age of Islam were concerned with seeking knowledge, what
Ahmed calls the “ilm-ethos.” They had different points of view, but all were influenced in one way
or another by the Greek philosophers, particularly Aristotle. The substantial questions they grappled
with included the nature of the universe, the nature of God, and the question of resurrection after
death. Avicenna’s ideas resonate with that of Aristotle, making him unpopular with some, although
his ideas regarding the separation of the body and soul were more in line with that of Plato. Al-
Ghazali pushed back against Avicenna’s position in favour of a more traditionally Islamic one, but
he, too, gave considerable credit to Aristotle. Al-Ghazali’s ideas greatly influenced Averroes (Ibn
Rushd) and further influenced Jewish and Christian thinking. Finally, Ibn-Arabi was concerned with
the mystical tradition of Islam, Sufism, which in turn has influenced the mystical traditions of both
Judaism and Christianity.
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The philosophers that Ahmed discusses had a number of things in common in their personal
lives. They were all polymaths. Their work was not confined to any one field of study, and they
made important contributions to mathematics, medicine, chemistry, and astronomy in addition to
their work in philosophy. They frequently excelled in poetry. Amid the difficulties of lives, they
remained devoted to the pursuit of knowledge and produced prodigious amounts of work. Most
importantly, they created an intellectual tradition that would define the Muslim world for centuries,
a tradition that needs to be revived.
So what relevance do these great men of the past have for today’s world? What lessons do they
teach us in the 21st century? What advice can they give us at present times when there is a
possibility of destruction of civilization? Contemporary world is marred with rapid climate change,
wildfires, storms, desiccation of water resources, rising sea levels, a pandemic that has caused
millions of deaths worldwide, racial and religious strife in numerous parts of the world as the fear of
the ‘other’ seems more important than getting acquainted with the ‘other’ as advocated by the
Quran, and the rise of authoritarianism and hatred of the ‘other’.
Ahmed suggests a number of answers to these questions. I will leave their details for the
readers to discover for themselves. But the most important one is that this is not the first time that
Humankind has encountered challenging problems and that each of the problems can be resolved
by the application of reason and the hope that comes from faith. This is the basic lesson that one
learns from studying the works of the great Greek, Muslim, Jewish and Christian philosophers, as
well as the philosophers of other faiths.
Perhaps, this seems overly optimistic, but optimism is necessary for Humankind to survive and
thrive. The optimism of The Flying Man is a great gift that Akbar Ahmed has given us during these
trying times. We owe him a debt of gratitude.
(Source: Daily Times)
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International Issues
BIDEN’S FOREIGN POLICY PRIORITIES
David E. Sanger (NYT’s White House and National Security correspondent)
Before the Taliban marched through the gates of Kabul, before the desperate scenes of a makeshift
airlift, before a baby was passed over the barbed wire on the airport walls, President Biden had one
simple way of framing his decision to end the endless war in Afghanistan: national interest.
“The United States cannot afford to remain tethered to policies creating a response to a world as
it was 20 years ago,” he said on July 8. “We need to meet the threats where they are today.”
It was a classic — and at the time broadly popular — bit of realpolitik. America today has a lot
of important interests. To name a few: countering nuclear proliferation, standing up for human
rights, combating terrorism and promoting democracy, which George W. Bush said in his second
inaugural address would be the mission of the US for decades to come.
But as Graham T. Allison, the Harvard political scientist, often says to students, “While all of
these are important, some interests are more important than others.” So it is in moments like this
that we find out what a president’s hierarchy of priorities is all about.
And Biden has been clear about his.
We have an interest in facing down the terrorist threat, the president said, but that threat is no
longer centered in Afghanistan. More important, he said, is recognizing that “strategic competition
with China” will “determine our future.” Other threats — particularly cyberthreats — have also
moved from peripheral issues to center stage.
The logic is hard to argue with. The China challenge is unquestionably the most important and
complex problem in American national security — part military, part technological, part economic.
And the attack on Colonial Pipeline this year, which shut off a quarter of the fuel running up
the East Coast, was a reminder that a well-organized cyberattack can do a lot more damage than a
localized terrorism incident, even if it makes for less dramatic television.
Had the withdrawal from Afghanistan gone as planned, with a relatively orderly return of the
remaining 2,500 American troops and a relatively smooth handover of the defense of the country to the
Afghan National Security Forces, Biden would likely be basking in praise for his Kissinger-like realism.
But as they say in the military, the enemy also gets a vote. What the Taliban have done, with a
brutally effective strategy that forced the collapse of the American-backed Afghan government a
year or two faster than intelligence assessments thought possible, has forced Biden to defend his
priorities. It is hard to get Americans to focus on a China strategy when their screens are filled with
images of desperate Americans, and the thousands of Afghans who helped them over two decades,
trying to get out of Afghanistan before they are hunted down.
So, does Biden’s argument still hold up? Yes, but with some major caveats.
To rescue his focus-on-the-vital strategy, Biden knows he must first rescue those Americans and
Afghan allies, whatever it takes. One of his closest aides told me last week that his legacy on
Afghanistan might be decided not on how he did in the past two weeks, but on how he does in the
next two. No matter how good his geopolitical strategy, if the on-the-ground execution does not
improve, the withdrawal will likely be remembered as a disaster.
Second, superpowers need to be able to walk and chew on their competitors at the same time.
The resources needed to deal with the Afghan airlift — the one Biden on Sunday compared to the
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challenge of the great Berlin airlift of Cold War fame — are drastically different than the ones
needed to compete with China, or to deal with cyberattacks originating from Russia.
Third, the president has to deal, sooner or later, with the built-in contradictions in the Biden
doctrine. He has repeatedly said that the great struggle of this century will be between the forces of
democracy and the forces of autocracy. This has been a bad week for the forces of democracy and a
fabulous one for autocrats, who are delighted to see America’s reputation for managing the globe
take a hit.
Biden disagreed yesterday. History, he said, would ratify his judgment that Afghanistan was
the wrong war, and that the leaders of China and Russia would “love nothing better for us to
continue to be bogged down there.” They certainly would. But avoiding being bogged down is
about more than getting out — it’s about getting out in a way that enhances American leverage and
stature. We’re a long way from that.
(Source: New York Times)

A DISORDERED WORLD
Javid Husain (Former Ambassador)
The rapidly intensifying rivalry between China and the US has unleashed forces which have
badly destabilized the world order established by the West in the wake of World War II.
China’s phenomenal economic growth over the past four decades, followed by the steady rise
of its military power has posed a serious challenge to American global supremacy. According to
credible projections, China’s GDP in nominal dollar terms will overtake that of the US within this
decade after having surpassed it in purchasing power parity terms in 2014.
China is also fast catching up with the US in science and technology, especially in such fields as
artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, semiconductors, bio-technology, and space research.
If China continues to increase its military expenditure at a much faster pace than the US as is the
case currently, it would also emerge as the most powerful military power in the world within the
next three decades.
It is advantageous to be powerful in the game of nations. Powerful nations set the international
agenda and lay down the rules of the game, which are skewed in their favour – thus making sure
that major decisions on critically important issues are such that meet their approval. It is not
surprising, therefore, that the world order established primarily by the US-led West after World War
II aimed at ensuring the pre-eminence of the Western countries in security, economic and financial
spheres. Powerful nations can also get away with the violation of the rules of inter-state conduct
when it suits them. The US invasion of Iraq in 2003 was such a violation of the UN Charter and its
obligations under the principles of international law. There are numerous other examples of similar
violations by the US and other Western states in the post-World War II history.
The foregoing analysis explains the continuous refrain of the US-led West that China should
abide by the so-called rules-based order which was designed in the first place to perpetuate the
Western hegemony. For the same reason, it is inevitable that as China grows in economic power and
military muscle, it will challenge those rules and features of the present world order which are
meant primarily to serve the Western interests. Other emerging powers like Brazil, India, Indonesia,
Turkey and Nigeria are also likely to demand accommodation of their interests through
modification of the rules of the prevailing world order in such fields as international trade.
However, the biggest challenge to the prevailing world order is posed by China’s dramatic rise,
together with the re-assertion of Russia’s power in its neighbourhood and the Middle East.
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As Napoleon remarked about two centuries ago, “Let China sleep; when she wakes up, she will
shake the world.” China’s century of humiliation ended with the establishment of the People’s
Republic of China in 1949. It is on course now to claim its rightful place in the comity of nations.
Ideally, the West should accommodate China’s legitimate interests peacefully through appropriate
adjustments in the current world security and economic architecture. Instead, the overt and covert
resistance by the US and other Western countries to the expansion of China’s power and influence in
international affairs is destabilizing the prevailing world order, aggravating global tensions, and
sowing the seeds of low intensity conflicts, especially in the Asia-Pacific region.
Already there are reports of occasional encounters between US and Chinese forces in the South
China Sea where China’s territorial claims are contested by the US, other Western countries and the
regional states. The dispute over Taiwan, which is recognized by most of the world and even by the
US as part of China, also has the potential to explode into a major crisis if the Taiwanese
government, which enjoys Washington’s support, makes a move towards independence. The
dispute between China and Japan over the Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea is another source of
tensions. The US policy of containment of China through building alliances with Japan, South Korea
and Australia, developing a strategic partnership with India, destabilizing China internally, and
activating the Quad, which is a quasi-alliance among US, Japan, India and Australia to counter
China, will inevitably heighten global tensions.
The US is also deeply concerned over the expansion of China’s economic power and influence
through trade and investment in different regions in Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America. The
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), of which CPEC is an important component, is a huge Chinese project
to develop China’s economic and commercial connectivity with Eurasian countries and Africa. It is
hardly surprising that the US views BRI through the strategic lens as an instrument to expand
China’s economic and commercial influence abroad at its expense. It is therefore employing all overt
and covert means to undermine it.
Pakistan obviously cannot remain immune from the implications of the increasingly disorderly
world in which national economic and military power rather than international law and morality
will play the decisive role. It, therefore, must stabilize itself politically while developing its economic
and military power and promoting advancement in science and technology to face the daunting
challenges posed by the growing world disorder. It is a pity that right now the country is deeply
destabilized politically and vulnerable economically. The situation is fraught with serious dangers
for the country’s security and economic well-being.
While our efforts to develop friendly relations with the US on the basis of mutual respect must
continue, Washington’s strategic partnership with New Delhi leaves us with no choice but to deepen
our strategic cooperation with China and expedite the implementation of CPEC projects. We should
also take vigorous steps to defeat India’s moves to isolate us at regional and global levels, especially
in handling Afghanistan and the issue of terrorism.
Above all, we must realize that economic dependence on foreign donors and an independent
foreign policy in Pakistan’s best interests cannot go together. As a nation we must learn to live within
our means by practising policies of austerity and self-reliance. The country still awaits a leader who
goes beyond mere declarations to actually implement these policies to put Pakistan on the road to
rapid economic progress and enable it to acquire a dignified position at the international level.
(Source: The News International)
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THE NAGGING QUESTION IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

Phillip Orchard (Analyst at Geopolitical Futures)
Senior US diplomats were fanned out across the Indo-Pacific last week. US Defense Secretary
Lloyd Austin toured Southeast Asia, outlining to circumspect US partners a vision for “integrated
deterrence” and, in Manila, tending to a festering wound at the heart of US regional strategy. This
followed Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman’s visits to Seoul and Tokyo, indispensable US
allies whose resentment for each other is a big problem for the US alliance structure. Her boss,
Antony Blinken, dropped by India to continue transforming the “Quad” from a reluctant talk shop
to a coalition with teeth. Meanwhile, at home, the annual bureaucratic donnybrook over the
Pentagon’s budget is in full swing, with profound debates over how best to sustain US naval
supremacy in the Indo-Pacific (How many ships? What type? What role for unmanned ships?)
appearing nowhere close to resolution.
The flurry of activity can be tied to a single, nagging question: Can China win? Or, can China’s
developing capabilities – hypersonic missiles, warships, cyberweapons, space and information
domain assets, and so forth – nullify Washington’s naval superiority, particularly in China’s front
yard? What happens if China succeeds simply in making it too costly for the US to risk a fight?
In truth, the question will probably never be fully answered. It would take a war to do so, and
war would be disastrous for everyone involved. Yet the uncertainty itself will be a defining feature
in the regional landscape likely for decades to come.
The US Navy’s Dominance
It’s hard to imagine how the latter half of the 20th century would have played out had the US
Navy faced a comparable rival. Its dominance allowed Europe to eschew cyclical conflict for
economic and political integration, and it allowed Japan to maintain a largely pacifist posture for
nearly half a century. It helped keep the Cold War from turning hot. It allowed the US the domestic
security and economic vitality to play a proactive offshore balancing role, discouraging far-flung
emerging powers from becoming regional hegemonies. And, for better or for worse, it allowed the
US to play the role of global policeman. Perhaps most important, it guaranteed the security of
international sea lanes, unleashing the unprecedented boom in maritime trade and fundamentally
rewiring the global economy.
Still, it’s reasonable to wonder just how good the US Navy actually is. For all its experience
supporting combat operations against weaker powers in the Middle East and elsewhere, it hasn’t
fought a conventional naval battle since 1944. The gap between the US Navy and those of its
potential rivals was so large, and so expensive to narrow, that no potential rival, not even the
Soviets, ever really tried to match it. In other words, the main success of the US Navy was in making
it so it would never have to really fight.
But there’s only so much a fighting force can learn about its capabilities and vulnerabilities from
war games, computer simulations (in which the US hasn’t exactly lived up to its reputation recently)
and supporting roles against land-based foes. And the risks of a dominant navy becoming
overconfident and blind to its own vulnerabilities have been borne out repeatedly throughout history.
Moreover, US naval dominance is under pressure from multiple directions. The US military’s
misadventures in the 1990s and 2000s made the US at once overstretched and underweighted in the
region that would matter most in the 2010s onward. It now seems to understand that it needs to
adopt a more subtle strategy of bending global affairs to its interests and avoiding the temptation to
be everywhere at once. The US Navy is, of course, still vital in this regard; no component of the US
military is more important to sustaining the flexibility to project power decisively from a smaller
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footprint. But it’s enough to compel far-flung allies, particularly those in the Western Pacific and
eastern Indian Ocean, to take on greater responsibility for regional security burdens.
China’s Rise
The main threat to US dominance, of course, is China. Over the past 20 or so years, Beijing has
embarked on a long-term campaign to develop its maritime forces, and the resulting challenge is
unlike anything the US has ever faced. (Even the Soviet Union, which had a greater geographic and
strategic imperative to focus primarily on controlling the Eurasian landmass, could rely more on the
force of its ideology, its long-range nuclear arsenal and its talent for trapping the US in proxy
conflicts.) For the first time in its history, China has an imperative to become a maritime power. Its
biggest strategic dilemma is its need for secure access to the Pacific and Indian oceans, access that
could be severed by foreign navies around a series of chokepoints running from the Senkakus to the
Malacca Strait. And China has the economic dynamism, industrial capacity and technological
growth needed to make it happen.
Its naval buildup has thus been remarkable in its scale and speed. In terms of fleet size, the
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is nearing parity with the US Navy. Moreover, the Chinese
navy is bolstered by thousands of paramilitary vessels from the coast guard and the maritime militia
– lightly armed fishing vessels that report directly to the PLA – that can act as force multipliers in
China’s littoral waters. Already, they are the vanguard of Beijing’s efforts to enforce its territorial
claims and intimidate other South China Sea claimant states into seeing China’s regional supremacy
as inevitable.
This doesn’t mean the PLAN would stand a chance against the US fleet in a conventional naval
battle in open waters. Fleet size and composition tell us only so much about a navy’s capabilities.
Technological sophistication, fleet composition, training, operational experience and logistics
support networks are also all key – and in most of these areas, the Chinese navy is widely believed
to still be decades behind the US
Still, the US should be concerned. As with all dimensions of China’s rise, trajectory is more
important than the current balance of forces. China has quickly weaned itself off foreign components
and technology. In 2015, the Pentagon rated 70 percent of Chinese submarines (both nuclear- and
diesel-powered), destroyers and frigates as being of “modern design,” compared to 30-40 percent
just a decade earlier. Moreover, its ability to play catch-up in technologies with potential “dual-use”
commercial-military applications – cyberspace, artificial intelligence, telecommunications and outer
space – shouldn’t be dismissed.
Plus, if the US and China go to war in the foreseeable future, China would almost certainly be
fighting with home-field advantage, allowing it to structure its defenses in a way that offsets its
weaknesses and amplifies its strengths. It couldn’t do that if it tried to take on the US Navy in the
middle of the Pacific. Beijing understands as much, and though its long-term strategic plans call for
its capabilities to dominate distant waters, its overwhelming focus for now is on creating a “fortress
fleet” to establish a gradually expanding protective buffer in its littoral waters. The goal here is to
make the price too high for an outside navy to threaten the mainland or intervene on Taiwan’s
behalf, to persuade weaker regional states that their best bet is to ally with Beijing, and to project
enough force to be able to secure its maritime chokepoints. And its prospects for success here are
growing. China’s buildup of anti-ship missiles alone could very well diminish the operational value
of the cornerstone of the US Navy – the aircraft carrier strike group – to the point of being obsolete.
King of the Seas
Of course, the same strengths that allowed the US to achieve naval dominance in the first place
haven’t gone away. Its technological base is unmatched, putting it in a reasonably solid position to stay a
step ahead and parry whatever China comes up with. The US economy may prove far more resilient
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than China’s, allowing it to sustain funding for these sorts of next-generation capabilities – not to
mention to engage in economic warfare to potentially kneecap China’s ability to sustain its trajectory.
Moreover, the US has spent more than a century building its alliance structure, and China will
have an enormously difficult time building its own. Beijing hopes that its neighbours will eventually
see that accommodating Chinese regional hegemony is in their own interest, but in the meantime,
it’s largely compelling them to look for ways to sustain the balance of power. Some, like Japan, are
clearly bulking up for a fight. At minimum, China’s buildup will continue to induce tighter military
cooperation among regional powers such as Japan, Australia, India and Singapore, as well as some
enterprising Europeans. To sustain its edge and maintain the ability to operate in the face of China’s
anti-access/area denial buffer, the US will need a more decentralized force posture featuring
counterstrike batteries and rapid deployment positions across the first island chain. At present, it’s
struggling to persuade regional partners to give it the access needed for this; given the uncertainty,
most regional states are hedging their bets. But the US is still far more likely than China to get the
regional support it needs.
Even so, history has shown repeatedly that dominance the likes of the US Navy can’t last
forever and that the downfall is typically preceded by technological shifts, domestic rot, inertia and
strategic arrogance. The development of carrier-based air power and long-range submarines ended
the primacy of battleships. The next great power war will hinge on which side is best-equipped to
blind the enemy, and thus command of the sea will soon hinge on command of the space and cyber
realms. For all its strengths, US dysfunction at home warrants real skepticism about its ability to
harness its resources and execute a steady, comprehensive strategy in these domains. If the US
repeats the age-old mistake of preparing to fight the next war as if it were the last, it may very well
lose even before shots are fired.
Given its economic and political fragility and geographic vulnerabilities, China may prove to be
a paper tiger. But its prospects are strong enough that both the US and its friends in the region, for
the first time in several generations, are thinking seriously about how to adapt to an environment in
which the US is no longer the unquestioned king of the seas.
(Source: Geopolitical Futures)

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PEACEFUL MULTIPOLAR ORDER

Dario Velo (Professor at Pavia University)
In recent decades, the international order has undergone profound changes. The leadership of
the USA. and Russia, affirmed since the Second World War, has been joined with increasing
importance by new states: China, the nations of the European Union, India and other emerging
countries.
The US leadership, already weakened by the crisis of the monetary system founded in Breton
Woods, has suffered the most from the glaring effects of this turnaround.
The dollar has gradually lost its importance as an international payment and reserve currency.
Globalisation, which was based on roles that normally belong to the state being dedicated to the
market, has lost strength in the face of Colbertist-type national policies. A stateless market is
doomed to fail, as it is not defended by adequate public policies.
Europe has found itself part of a new multipolar order and this is forcing it to update its
responsibilities. The European Union must choose between three fundamental alternatives: renew
the traditional alliance with the United States on a more equal basis; develop its own autonomous
army; enhance its own initiative in the field of foreign policy to limit the risks of conflict, while
promoting economic and political collabouration and integration.
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This third alternative is the model theorised by Tommaso Padoa Schioppa: “Europe, gentle
force”.
Alternatives are not rigidly alternative solutions; they can contribute to designing a new
peaceful order.
The world is experiencing a transitional phase characterised by risks and new opportunities.
Multilateralism can repeat, mutatis mutandis, the logic of the Treaty of Westphalia of 1648;
alternatively it can accelerate the process of integration at the international level, according to the
logic of The Federalist Papers, written in 1788 by Hamilton, Jay and Madison. These dates, 1648 and
1788, indicate how the current transition has deep roots and is destined to develop in the long-term.
This must make us aware of the choices that are maturing, as they are destined to affect our future in
a profound way.
The processes underway are accelerating more rapidly than expected. The alternative between a
multilateralism that produces tensions and wars and a peaceful multilateralism based on
collabouration and innovative forms of integration is destined to take a dramatic turn if far-sighted
decisions are not taken in good time.
The design conceived by Roosevelt’s heirs at the end of the Second World War was a great US -
Europe – Russia alliance. This design was shelved due to the development of the Cold War. The
convergence between these three great countries would constitute a fundamental contribution to the
construction of a more peaceful international order.
This perspective is not easy to realise, but it can be based on strengths that make it realistic. An
economic union between these three great countries, open to ever wider international participation,
can constitute the strategic choice capable of strengthening a new balanced world economic order
based on freedom and solidarity.
The multipolar order is intended to bring out two alternatives to overcome the inadequacy of
international institutions.
A first alternative is the strengthening of existing institutions. In an abstract way, it is the most
linear solution, as it is based on the experience already acquired. Realistically, this solution can only
be adopted on condition that we understand the reasons for the weakening of the existing
institutions, which have prevented them from taking initiatives capable of solving these problems.
A different alternative is the creation of new institutions that could work alongside traditional
international institutions and that could determine the evolution of the latter.
The start of this process can be constituted by the creation of Communities, on an international
scale, in the sectors of health, the fight against various forms of pollution, and the development of
clean energy. The history of the European unification process demonstrates the extent of the
Communities as a gradual constituent process, with the transition from forms of Governance to
more advanced forms of Government.
The European Health Community, with the accession of Russia and the United States, is a first
step in this direction.
It is the responsibility of Europe to participate in emerging multilateralism with a role of
promoting a peaceful and solidary multilateralism.
(Source: Valdai Club)
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POWERFUL SPYWARE
Mel Gurtov (Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Portland State University, Oregon)
We have just learned about a powerful spyware known as Pegasus, manufactured and leased
by the Israeli company NSO Group and capable of extracting just about every kind of data stored in
a smart phone. The Pegasus Project, a consortium of 17 organizations and individuals, mostly
journalists, has acquired a leaked list of 50,000 individuals around the world whose phones may
have been hacked, though not necessarily penetrated.
Purportedly developed to track criminals and terrorists, Pegasus is also being widely used to
hack into the smart phones of human rights activists, journalists, and their political opponents at
home and even abroad.
Who is using Pegasus to track enemies? Only a fraction of the 50,000 hacked phone numbers so
far obtained have been examined, but that’s enough to reveal that governments from left to right
have made use of Pegasus. Among them: Saudi Arabia, India, and Hungary.
The two people closest to the murdered Saudi journalist Jared Khashoggi, including his widow,
are among those whose phones were penetrated. The Modi government in India and the Orban
government in Hungary have caused uproars over their use of Pegasus to spy on critics.
Pegagus is also being used against current high-level government officials. Among the people
on the list: Three presidents, from France, Iraq, and South Africa; three current prime ministers, from
Pakistan, Egypt, and Morocco; and one king (Morocco). That means all of them have been tracked
and their private messaging probably collected – though exactly what was culled and who is doing
the hacking are uncertain. All these officials refused to turn over their phones for forensic analysis.
There’s a connection between the surveillance industry and lobbying, which I examined a few
weeks ago. NSO can only sell its technology with Israeli government approval, which means it must
lobby Israel’s defense ministry. And that effort extends to the US. For while NSO maintains that
Pegasus will never be used “to conduct cybersurveillance within the United States,” why has it
retained a prominent Washington, DC law firm to lobby US officials about NSO’s technology?
It is entirely possible that Pegasus has been used or might yet be used against Americans who,
for example, write from home about human rights abuses abroad.
The fact that nothing in a smart phone is safe from Pegasus makes it a weapon, another piece of
infowar technology, and all the more insidious for being able to hide within the phone and, even if
discovered, be difficult to track.
Just think of all the information a smart phone contains: contacts, passwords, text and email
messages, videos, pictures. Planting bugs and wiretapping seem ancient by comparison. A
technology like Pegasus conceivably can infect millions of phones anywhere, anytime, giving a
government or a gang access to potentially lethal information.
(Source: Counterpunch.org)

A REAL LOOK AT US-INDIA RELATIONS

Touqir Hussain (Former Ambassador)
President Biden has not yet called Prime Minister Imran Khan. Pakistanis are rightly upset but
largely for the wrong reasons. In the media discourse and in official statements there are
insinuations that US-India relations might be one of the reasons.
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The truth is Pakistan is looking for answers in the wrong place because it continues to believe
that the US should treat Pakistan and India equally, a belief resting on an obsolete world view. This
notion deals with a world that is no more: a world of the cold-war days when there was a
geopolitical and ideological conflict between two opposing systems that subordinated most
countries to one camp or the other. Pakistan cannot somehow wean itself away from the false pride
of having been a preferred ally of the US compared to India during those ‘halcyon’ days.
Pakistan continues to see America’s interests and relationships in South Asia confined to the
region and limited to India and Pakistan like during the cold war. No wonder India keeps coming
up in any conversation about the US Pakistan relations. But the fact is there is a new world now
whose arrival was heralded by the fall of the Berlin Wall, offering great new economic and strategic
opportunities, and then reiterated with a bang by 9/11 that presented grave new threats. Along with
these changes has come the phenomenal rise of China that brilliantly bridged the pre- and post-cold-
war eras to its own benefit and that of the world.
It is a world that is globalized, integrated and interdependent, offering great possibilities for
global prosperity and allowing countries to rise economically as well as militarily following the
devolution of power that used to be monopolized by two superpowers. Middle powers like India,
whose potential was held down by the straight jacket of the cold war, have been ‘liberated’ and are
rising. And those like Pakistan closely tied to the apron strings of a superpower are floundering,
vainly trying to reignite old alliances.
Enhancing economic benefits while tackling unprecedented non-traditional threats, including
transnational threats like climate change in a multipolar geopolitical environment under the
umbrella of an intense US-China competition that will define the future international relations. In
this world, India and Pakistan would have different roles for the US. The two relationships have
different trajectories propelled by different dynamics.
Of course, one relationship affects the other and it is quite legitimate for Pakistanis to talk about
it. But to keep comparing the two relationships or looking for the meaning of one in the other or to
consider them zero sum in that the gain by India is a loss by Pakistan is misguided. Yes, Pakistan
has a strategic parity of sorts with India, but its significance is bilateral. It does not enhance
Pakistan’s international stature.
The US no longer considers India as an erstwhile South Asian power that couldn't even manage
its relationship with a smaller rival. India has broken through the South Asian ceiling and has
acquired global status – though not entirely due to its own achievements but because of vested
American patronage.
Clearly, there are strong economic and strategic reasons for the US to have a special relationship
with India. But there’s more to it. And that is domestic politics. Domestic politics affects foreign policy
to varying degrees in every country but nowhere is its influence so dominant as in the US. Indians are
now the most affluent ethnic minority in the US and have significant political clout in the Congress.
Indians are close behind the Jewish community in occupying highly acclaimed positions in the
academia and the think tank community on account of their scholastic achievements giving them
influence in the media and the public opinion. They have played a visible role in think tanks, both
liberal and conservative, especially those closer to the military industrial complex in creating this
hype about China pushing US India relations as the answer to the US strategic dilemma. Their
presence is also rising in the government. They have thus a considerable policy clout.
The politics and policy of the US relationship with India is in alignment – like in the case of Israel.
They can influence US policy towards India and also get political support for it both in the White
House and in the Congress. Their profile in the corporate sector is also on the ascendance. And as we
know the American corporate sector has substantial influence on policy and politics in the US.
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Indian policies back home have no doubt helped. Beginning in 1991, India has been on a steady
march to foster external relations conducive to its economic growth and technological development.
This would define how it engaged with great powers, especially the US, thus raising its economic
weight, military potential, and diplomatic stature. It helps India’s hegemonic ambitions in South
Asia, and most importantly puts the Kashmir issue beyond Pakistan’s diplomatic reach.
In sum, India has an important economic relationship with the US, is a major importer of
defence equipment and a recipient of FDI. We should not see only China writ large on the
relationship. There is more to the US-India relations than China. Look at the language used by the
US Secretary of State Blinken during his recent visit to India. No relationship of the US, Blinken said,
is as vital as US-India relations. And remember Condi Rice. As the national security adviser in the
first term of the Bush administration, she said that the US wanted to help India become a great
power. Later in 2005 when the US announced its nuclear deal with India, she said that the same deal
could not be given to Pakistan as the nuclear issue had different histories in both countries.
Pakistan’s profile on the other hand has been declining. In the last few decades, especially since
the end of the cold war, Pakistan literally seems to have lost its way in foreign policy which has
become too security oriented – and that too focused on internal security challenges. Pakistan has
suffered from the blowback of not only its own policies in the region but also that of the ill-
conceived policies of its partner the US, particularly in the last two decades.
An added factor has been the related issue of weak economy and poor governance which made
Pakistan indebted to others and thus subordinated to their interests. Pakistan lost not only the
autonomy of decision-making but also diplomatic influence. Acclaimed Indian analyst Raja Mohan
has depicted Pakistan’s decline in a well-argued piece in the Indian Express, ‘Lessons from Pakistan:
How to Win Friends, Influence Allies, Then Squander It All’.
All is not lost for Pakistan, though. Pakistan has a critically important relationship with China.
But instead of using this relationship to become strong, for which it has the potential, Pakistan is
relying on borrowed strength. It may now be trying to be on the right track with the policy shift to
geoeconomics. But statements are not equivalent to policy. Geoeconomics would also need an
enabling environment like a stable Afghanistan and a moderate Pakistan. Extremist elements affect
societal attitudes, inhibiting progressive outlook and inclusive world view.
If Pakistan can present itself as a credible economic partner, it will attract American interest.
The US also needs Pakistan’s cooperation in Afghanistan and in counterterrorism. So, there are
possible areas of convergence. There will of course be areas of divergence as well, like China and
relations with India. If there is pressure from Washington on this account, Pakistan should be able to
resist it if it has strength. The stronger you are, the more successful the resistance. Pakistan just
needs to get serious, not just in thought but in action. It can do it. And not waste its time waiting for
a telephone call.

DON’T DRAW THE WRONG LESSONS FOR GLOBALIZATION

Ludovic Subran (Chief Economist of Euler Hermes and Allianz)
The cost of global trade is surging, and there are no signs of it slowing down. After all, the
grand reopening in the US and Europe after months of Covid-19 lockdowns has unleashed pent-up
demand, and companies are racing to restock in response. With lingering supply-chain bottlenecks,
especially shortages of shipping containers themselves, plus the longest delays seen in a decade,
prices are galloping off to record highs. By mid-July, the going rates for containers to ship goods
from Shanghai to Los Angeles were 236% higher than a year ago; from Shanghai to Rotterdam, they
were an eye-watering 595% higher.
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The bottlenecks aren’t going anywhere: In the short term, the uneven global recovery and
limited alternatives to ocean freight will mean that prices will remain high, especially since it can
take a year and a half to build a new ship, and the industry has seen underinvestment for years. And
while the fall in global tariffs should help, having already reversed nearly one third of the rise seen
under the Trump administration, it won’t be enough if continued tensions, especially between the
US and China, lead to more non-tariff barriers.
At the same time, demand is only going up, with a new infrastructure cycle, trillions of dollars
in fiscal stimuli and a sizable chunk of excess savings just waiting to be spent. So who’s going to pay
the biggest price? Europe is already feeling the pinch as its later reopening allowed US companies to
get to the front of the line: as a result, while goods shipments from Asia to the USA are currently
growing by around 30%, those to Europe are only increasing by around 10%. Most countries in
Europe, and especially Germany, are struggling to restock already low levels of inventories.
After the Covid-19-related supply disruptions of 2020, this is the second shock to global supply
chains in a short time. High time, then, for a reconfiguration. In the future, resilience will take
precedence over efficiency. But don’t draw the wrong lessons for globalization.
Global supply chains can break – but not because they are global, but because they are supply
chains –and chains can break. Closing the Brenner highway is just as fatal for the European auto
industry as blocking the Suez Canal. Chemical parks are currently under water – in Germany. It
would be naïve to assume that on-shoring or near-shoring alone could solve the problem of
resilience. Instead, it is crucial to work in partnership with suppliers – from joint development to
equity investments – in order to create reliability and trust. If you see suppliers as just a counterpart
to squeeze every last penny out of, you shouldn't be surprised if supply chains break down in
challenging times like these. For resilience, this partnership approach is crucial; geographical
proximity or even the nationality of the partners plays (almost) no role.
Nevertheless, the justified call for greater resilience is also mingled with irritating tones about
national supply security. What used to hold at best for food security is now being applied to many
areas, from chips and batteries to artificial intelligence. The example of computer chips is
particularly instructive. Even if there is no local demand (beyond the acute shortage), Europe is
flirting with building large manufacturing capacities – in order to reduce its supposed dependence
on Asian producers. This is not very effective. It ignores the fundamental insight into the gains of
trade, the theory of comparative advantage: Instead of trying to catch up with the Asian lead in
production, Europe should concentrate on its strengths; in the case of chips, on design and the
machines to produce them. After all, the idea of the "self-sufficient" Asians is just as misguided.
Without American know-how in development and European production machines, the factories in
Taiwan would not run. The dependencies are mutual.
The secret longing for de-coupling in the world economy is a break with earlier convictions. In
the days of the Cold War, the doctrine of "change through trade" (“Wandel durch Handel”) still
applied: economic exchange was seen as a proven means of minimizing the risk of political and even
military conflict. Today, political tensions – especially between China and the US – are seen as a
pretext to the dismantling of economic ties. It would be fatal if the Covid-19 crisis – in addition to all
the other suffering – were to lead to an acceleration of this process. Throwing the baby out with the
bathwater has never been a good idea. Global supply chains not only follow the irrefutable logic of
trade as an engine of prosperity. They also make the world safer.
(Source: Financial Executives International)
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HOW GREAT POWERS SHOULD COMPETE

Michael Spence (Nobel laureate in economics)
At the recent G7 and NATO gatherings, China was singled out as a strategic competitor, a
calculating trading partner, a technological and national-security threat, a human-rights violator,
and a champion of authoritarianism globally. China denounced these characterizations, which its
embassy in the United Kingdom called “lies, rumors, and baseless accusations.” The risks that such
rhetoric poses should not be underestimated.
Many in the West disapprove of China’s single-party governance structure, just as vocal
elements in China disparage Western liberal democracy, which they argue is in terminal decline.
The real danger, however, is that officials on both sides seem to have embraced a zero-sum
framework, according to which the two sides cannot simply co-exist; one side must “win.”
By this logic, both sides must always be trying to crush the competition. So, for China, the West
– especially the United States – must be seeking to reverse its rise (which, in reality, was facilitated in
no small part by the US). And, for the West, China is determined to leverage its economic might,
including its huge internal market, to reshape the global system in its image and to its benefit.
The more often leaders repeat these narratives, the more likely ordinary citizens are to become
convinced that they are true. Rising fear and resentment on both sides increases the risk that the
narratives will become self-fulfilling prophecies.
In the meantime, the focus on bilateral competition obscures the needs and interests of people
in emerging markets and developing economies. Yes, China and the West espouse some version of
multilateralism. But unfettered strategic competition precludes effective multilateralism, not least by
disrupting trade and technology transfer – a crucial driver of development.
China and the West urgently need a new framework for understanding the state of the world
and their place in it. Such a framework must recognize, first and foremost, that properly regulated
economic competition is not a zero-sum game.
In static terms, normal economic competition bolsters price efficiency and helps to align supply
and demand. In dynamic terms, it leads to what Joseph Schumpeter dubbed “creative destruction” –
a powerful mechanism for translating knowledge, ideas, and experiments into new products,
services, and cost-reducing processes. In other words, it leads to advances in human well-being.
There is no reason to think that cross-border competition cannot produce the same benefits. On
the contrary, experience shows that it can, so long as supporting legal and regulatory structures are
in place and the playing field is level. Admittedly, delivering these conditions – especially a level
playing field – is difficult on an international scale, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
Strategic competition is a different story. After all, there are powerful dual-use technologies –
often emerging from non-defense sectors – that advance both economic and national-security
objectives. Leaders should not pretend this is not the case.
But that, too, does not mean countries are condemned to play a zero-sum game, focused on
making (or keeping) others weak. Instead, China and the West should agree to achieve and preserve
a degree of economic, technological, and defense parity. This means abandoning efforts to block the
diffusion of knowledge and technology – an enterprise that is rarely effective in the long run.
Such an approach would avoid greater fragmentation of the global economic system, which is
particularly damaging to third parties. And it would deter offensive use of military or technological
capabilities – vital in an environment where neither side trusts the other.
But a system that minimizes the need for trust does not justify mutual villainization. There is
nothing wrong with preferring the governance system in one’s own country, including its particular
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balance of individual rights and collective interests. Such preferences are based on factors like
personal experience, education, and values, not objective fact. There is no clear evidence that one
particular system of governance guarantees economic and social development. Both democracies
and single-party systems have produced good and bad development outcomes. It seems that the
most important precondition for development is leaders’ commitment to an inclusive vision of
human well-being.
When we assume that our own preferred system is objectively superior, and demonize
alternatives, we end up mis-framing the terms and likely outcomes of economic and strategic
competition. Worse, competition over governance distracts from more productive dimensions of
interdependence.
Economic, technological, and military competition is inevitable. The question is whether it will
be constructive. As it stands, the world is moving toward an equilibrium in which it will not be,
with third parties, or “non-protagonists,” suffering the most.
But it is not too late to change course. Given the lack of information and trust, together with
internal political dynamics, doing so will take considerable courage from leaders on both sides. The
first step is for both sides to renounce the kind of provocative rhetoric we have seen in recent weeks.

(Source: Asia Global)

THE UNITED STATES NEEDS TO REVISIT NEWTON’S THIRD LAW

Brig. (Rtd) Saleem Qamar Butt
Newton’s Third Law of Motion, also known as the law of action and reaction, states that ‘for
every action there is an equal and opposite reaction that acts with the same momentum and the
opposite velocity’. In slightly different words, ‘when two bodies interact, they apply forces to one
another that are equal in magnitude and opposite in direction’. Examples of Newton’s third law of
motion are present in everyday life. For example, engineers apply Newton’s third law when designing
rockets and other projectiles. The same law is equally applicable in routine human interactions and,
more pertinently, in the policies of countries. That begs the question, how and why does the
technologically most-advanced country, one with with the strongest economy and military might,
continually ignore it while intervening in countries and regions all over the globe and expect no
reaction in response to its “Hammer versus Nail policies”? The same lesson remained missing in the
US’s just-concluded misadventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Somalia and Yemen, besides
scheming against Iran, Pakistan, Sudan, Nigeria, Morocco, Egypt and a number of Central and South
American countries. The fiascos in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos also remain in living memory.
One wonders why a global superpower with the most potent military in human history never
seems to learn from its own blunders and continues to descend slippery geo-strategic slopes by
regularly spreading false narratives through compliant think tanks/ advisers and its control over the
global media. But how long can these catastrophic misadventures go on? Unless one believes in the
conspiracy theory of “planned and controlled global chaos”, it appears that the US is determined to
prove yet another global reality: “The world has witnessed the rise and fall of monarchy, the rise
and fall of dictatorship, the rise and fall of feudalism, the rise and fall of communism, and the rise of
democracy; and now we are witnessing the fall of democracy… the theme of the evolution of life
continues, sweeping away with it all that does not blossom into perfection.”
The analyses of US government-declassified documents captured from Osama Bin Laden’s
compound in Pakistan by Nelly Lahoud (the author of the book, The Bin Laden Papers) provide an
unparalleled glimpse into bin Laden’s mind and his perception of the US “war on terror”.
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Bin Laden’s Catastrophic Success: Al Qaeda Changed the World – but Not in the Way It
Expected
On September 11, 2001, al Qaeda carried out the deadliest terrorist attacks the United States had
ever experienced. To Osama bin Laden and the other men who planned it, however, the assault was
no mere act of terrorism. To them, it represented something far grander: the opening salvo of a
campaign of revolutionary, reactive violence that would usher in a new historical era. Although bin
Laden was inspired by religion, his aims were geopolitical. Al Qaeda’s mission was to undermine
(or contest) an ever exploitative West led by the USA as the contemporary world order of nation
states and re-create the historical Ummah, the worldwide community of Muslims that was once held
together by a common political authority.
Washington and its allies have come to realise (or at least should have), however, that an open-
ended war on terrorism is futile and that a successful counterterrorism policy must address the
legitimate political grievances that al Qaeda claims to champion — for example, US support for
dictatorships in the Middle East. Washington cannot quite claim victory against al Qaeda and its ilk,
which retain the ability to inspire deadly, if small-scale, attacks. The past two decades and the US’s
forced exit from Afghanistan and unavoidable departure from Iraq, Syria, Libya and some other
places due to unbearable human, economic and political costs, however, have made clear just how
short-sighted and counterproductive the use of excessive military power as leading a component of
the foreign policy was.
While continuing to bomb Afghanistan, which it had done since 2001, the confession by US
General Wesley Clark in 2007 about orders received from the office of the US Secretary of Defence to
take down a list of seven Muslim countries – Iraq, Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan and back
to Iran – over the next five years without any stated reasons laid bare the West’s animosity towards
political Islam and put a stamp on the veracity of Samuel P. Huntington’s “Clash of Civilisations”
hypothesis. Going by what has already been accomplished so far by the hardliners in the US
establishment, Iran appears to be on the anvil now. Nevertheless, Pakistan with a nuclear deterrent
in place and with war-hardened military forces, as well as successful Turkey being a new thorn in
the eyes of the West despite being a NATO member, cannot afford to be complacent. Luckily, the
spectacular rise of China and a resurgent Russia with prospective as well as existing regional
economic, diplomatic and military alliances like the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and
Shanghai Co-operation Organisation, besides a long list of BRI countries, now stand together lest
they get targeted and fall one by one.
Hoping against hope, it is recommended that the US administration and, even more, the US
presidents should learn the lesson of Newton’s Third Law and be mindful that “Reputations rise
and fall almost as regularly as the tides”. For centuries, the world has heard about high morals and
values of freedom from American leaders. In the last seventy years, however, they have consistently
ignored the fact that ‘our world is constantly in change and the great change is always toward
freedom. When we speak of freedom we speak of equality. Nations will rise and fall but equality
remains the ideal.’ Inadequate American general knowledge notwithstanding, it may be
remembered that ‘history is a voice forever sounding across the centuries the laws of right and
wrong. Opinions alter, manners change, creeds rise and fall, but the moral law is written on the
tablets of eternity’. If the American deep state remains committed to proving to the world that ‘No,
the shark in an updated JAWS could not be the villain; it would have to be written as the victim, for,
worldwide, sharks are much more the oppressed than the oppressors ’, the US’s stature as a world
leader won’t remain true for much longer!
(Source: Future Directions)
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THE PERMANENT PANDEMIC

Is a post-Covid world possible?
Aseem Shrivastava (Professor of Ecosophy)
Rupert Read (Professor of Philosophy)
For more than a generation of economic globalisation, to turn the old adage on its head, it
seemed to many that “wealth is health”. In the bargain, as everything, including health, came
seemingly to rest on the willing shoulders of money, huge fortunes were not only made but
universally sought, in what has come to be called an “aspirational world”.
In a grim reminder of the fact that we have in effect been encouraged to escape reality itself in the
name of “freedom”, the coronavirus pandemic has been here during the last year to rap us on our
knuckles that health is still wealth, that, as John Ruskin had it, life is the true wealth, and that little has
actually been well with us and the world all this time that the big fortunes were being made.
We live in an age soaked in propaganda. Could reality actually be much simpler than we are
being led to think nowadays? Is it not little more than commonsense that many pathogens have
been, are being, and will be summarily unseated by the aggressive, expansionary forces of
competitive globalisation from their ancient homes in remote ecosystems—in mountain caves, near
polar icecaps, or in the tropical rainforests, or even perhaps the beds of oceans? And that this is, at
bottom, the main driving cause of this pandemic and of those many more to come? That if we are to
find a lasting answer to the devastating waves of pandemics which are otherwise upon us, we must
identify this cause and root it out from our way of life?
Let us note upfront that it is possible that Covid-19 is actually the product of a lab-leak from
Wuhan in China. This highly disturbing possibility also casts a very dim light on our hubristic
civilisation’s tacit tech-mad assumption that we can act as if we are gods, without fear of blowback.
If this were to turn out to be the true origin of this deadly coronavirus, our basic diagnosis would be
unaffected. This piece is about the profound danger we have exposed ourselves to by turning
against nature, and by turning tech and economics into pseudo-gods. It concerns how our
globalising civilisation systematically creates the kind of risk that we have suffered grievously from
over the last year. Whether by the lack of humility implicit in constructing deadly viruses in labs, or
by the lack of humility explicit in destroying ecosystems, artificialising much of the earth and
wreaking climate-havoc, we are manifesting a mode of being that is incompatible with safety and
with the richness of long species life.
Our fundamental contention is that you have to choose: you can have a relatively secure,
relocalised world, or you can have pandemics in a world of sporadic restless ‘growth’. What you
can’t have is our growthist, technophilic, materialistic, economically globalised system and be
relatively free of the risk of pandemics.
Nobody likes their homes disturbed and so, having been evicted from their permanent habitats,
microbes are looking for new homes in unfamiliar places, the world’s metropolises and its human
inhabitants only being the most recent discovery of theirs. Even the animals whose bodies gave
them transient succour are slain for human food. Thus, ‘spillovers’ of what are called “zoonotic”
viruses are becoming increasingly more frequent than they used to be in a slower, less globalised
world of moderate material aspirations, involving far less disturbance to remote ecosystems.
Could things not be as simple as this? After all, every creature, even a virus that comes alive
only in a living cellular environment, longs to thrive by reproducing itself. Removed forcibly from
its customary habitat, it would surely look for a new home. The current pandemic may be part of the
rapidly growing price of the unsparingly triumphalist modernisation of the world.
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If all this is true, should we not reject outright any talk of a “post-Covid” world? For, so long as
competitive commercial aggression supported by myopic technological utopianism remains the
dominant way of human life on earth, one can expect microbes, otherwise remote from or harmless
to humans, to turn pathogenic and generate far-flung consequences for global society and human
health. The lurking perils would not be allayed even if this particular coronavirus pandemic ended.
Let us look deeper. Let us take some of the evidence.
First, let us look at the destruction of habitats around the earth in the global age. The forces of
international competition are the glory of professional economists who advise governments around
the world. Such competition is upheld for the virtues of productivity, efficiency, and growth which
fire the world’s economies—employment generation being the usual political pretext for such
reductionist advice.
What is not considered by economists is the growing violence to the earth’s ecologies entailed
by the routine processes of modern, competitive economic growth. The expansion and
intensification of agriculture, the race-to-the-bottom extraction of mineral resources for
manufacturing, and the growth of infrastructure (such as the construction of roads, dams, airports,
ports and power plants) all involve deforestation and habitat destruction on a large scale. Since 1990,
a forested area of 178 million hectares, seven times the size of Britain, has been lost to global
economic growth. This is more than 4 per cent of the forested area of the earth.
Some economists have begun taking note of the routine, unsustainable destruction of nature as
a result of economic growth. Such environmental accounting as they engage in is risky: to treat
nature itself as if it were a kind of capital is arguably just a novel form of the degradation. The value
of nature is profoundly misunderstood and mischaracterised if we tot it up in pounds and pennies.
But take their false coin for true, for a moment: even on their own terms, such accountings clearly
show up the great illusion that global economic growth has now become. Man-made capital not only
cannot replace nature, it is suicidally predatory on it. Data from the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP) demonstrates that the global stock of “natural capital” per capita has fallen by a
staggeringly precipitous 40 per cent since the early 1990s, while produced capital has doubled and
human capital has grown by only 13 per cent since then.
Rapid deforestation has not only led to enormous loss of biodiversity, flora and fauna, it has
also brought (as we shall see) humanity into much closer contact with unfamiliar new pathogens
carried by the smaller creatures, such as rodents, rats and bats, moved by or left behind by habitat
destruction and modification. This is a big source of zoonosis, since many unknown microbes, with
which human immune systems are unfamiliar from evolution have come into close contact with
human society for the very first time. Credible research demonstrates that changes in land-use,
including deforestation and the modification of natural habitats, are responsible for almost half of
emerging zoonoses.
One scientific assessment “found that the populations of animals hosting zoonotic diseases
were up to 2.5 times bigger in degraded places, and that the proportion of species that carry these
pathogens increased by up to 70%” in comparison with undamaged ecosystems.
During the last one year of the coronavirus pandemic, there has been a series of warnings from
the United Nations (UN) and the World Health Organization (WHO) that the world must tackle not
just the health and economic symptoms of the pandemic but their root causes in the destruction and
modification of natural habitats and remote ecosystems. In the opinion of experts, the Covid-19
pandemic is an “SOS signal for the human enterprise.” “Even more deadly disease outbreaks [are]
likely unless nature [is] protected.”
A recent study published in Nature points out that “global changes in the mode and the intensity of
land use are creating expanding hazardous interfaces between people, livestock and wildlife reservoirs
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of zoonotic disease.” “As people go in and, for example, turn a forest into farmland, what they’re doing
inadvertently is making it more likely for them to be in contact with an animal that carries disease,” says
David Redding, of the ZSL Institute of Zoology in London. “The greatest zoonotic threats arise where
natural areas have been converted to croplands, pastures and urban areas.” In his view: “the reason for
species such as rodents and bats simultaneously thriving in ecosystems damaged by humans and also
hosting the most pathogens is probably because they are small, mobile, adaptable and produce lots of
offspring rapidly.” Agricultural and urban lands are predicted to expand in the coming decades. This
will call for the reinforcement of disease monitoring and healthcare especially in areas going through
fundamental disturbances to habitats and ecosystems, since they are ever more likely to have “animals
that could be hosting harmful pathogens.”
Rabies, leptospirosis, anthrax, lyme disease, zika, SARS, MERS, yellow fever, dengue, HIV,
Ebola, Chikungunya and coronaviruses are all zoonotic viruses. The familiar flu, as well as malaria
and the bubonic plague originated in zoonosis too, though in centuries past. According to UNEP,
three-quarters of emerging infectious diseases which affect the health of humanity now originate in
animals. So we can scarcely be indifferent to ‘spillovers’ whose origin lies in deforestation and
habitat destruction or degradation.
Second, let us consider the rapid growth of movement of people and goods around the world in
the global era. The number of international air passenger trips more than doubled from two to 4.7
billion in just the period from 2004 to 2019, till the pandemic interrupted the growth. Thanks to
globalisation and the consequent growth in the speed, frequency and volume of international travel
across great distances of the earth, viruses—not just zoonotic—have exploded in our time.
Where transmission from human to human is possible, a virus can speedily spread across our
globalised world. The current pandemic is an ample demonstration of the ease with which a
dangerous infection can spread in an interconnected, global world through sometimes mysterious
vectors and pathways. Those countries—such as Taiwan and South Korea—which imposed
international travel restrictions early in the current pandemic have suffered orders of magnitude
fewer deaths and Covid cases than those nations—such as Belgium/Netherlands and Spain (with
roughly the same population respectively) which did not introduce such controls early enough.
Zoonoses are emerging at an unprecedented rate today. Much research is being conducted to
address the anxiety of the possibility of a pandemic of globally catastrophic proportions, the
likelihood of which grows by the day.
Third, there has been a tremendous growth of international animal trading with the advent of
the latest phase of globalisation. What has changed dramatically during the last few generations is
the growth in animal trade—for profit—across the world, a good proportion of which is illegal and
unregulated, thus not in adherence to international food safety standards.
Especially illustrative is the case of pangolins, sought for their scales, used in traditional Asian
medicine, as well as for their meat, a delicacy in some Asian and African communities. They have
become among the most trafficked (and threatened) animals in the world. One of the possible
pathways by which SARS-Cov-2 may have reached human populations is pangolins.
Legal international trade in animals itself is over $100 billion. However, under the radar, the
forces of globalisation have encouraged a growing, unregulated trade in diverse animals with
serious public health consequences across international boundaries.
Fourth, scarcely secondary is the public health danger posed by the industrial mass production
of meat through animal farming and the slaughterhouses. Most of the meat consumed in the world
today is factory-farmed. Animals are closely packed together. As Michael Greger (the author of Bird
Flu: A Virus of Our Own Hatching) says, “the animals could use a little social distancing, too.” They
live under harsh and unsanitary conditions. The stress that animals go through weakens their
immune systems. All this makes it easy for microbial infections to spread.
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Compounding matters is the fact that animals and birds are selected for genetic traits. This
means that those which are farmed are genetically all but identical, making it easy for a viral strain
to spread fast across a group of animals or a flock of birds. “Livestock health is the weakest link in
our global health chain,” noted the Food and Agriculture Organization in a 2013 report.
Evolutionary biologist Rob Wallace underscores that “big farms make big flu.” “Attempts to
proactively change poultry and livestock production in the interests of stopping pathogen outbreaks
can be met with severe resistance by governments beholden to their corporate sponsors. In effect,
influenza, by virtue of its association with agribusiness, has some of the most powerful
representatives available defending its interests in the halls of government. In covering up or
downplaying outbreaks in an effort to protect quarterly profits, these institutions contribute to the
viruses’ evolutionary fortunes. The very biology of influenza is enmeshed with the political
economy of the business of food.” In other words, for pandemics to stop, the world’s food
arrangements will have to undergo a serious change.
Fifth, let us further consider dietary habits in a globalised world. Diets are changing rapidly.
There is a growing demand for meat from large developing countries, especially India and China, as
their middle classes get wealthier and wish to emulate the food habits of wealthier cultures. During
the last half-century, global meat production and consumption have grown by an astonishing 260
per cent.
Such a shift in global diets is not sustainable from a planetary resource and climate perspective.
Scientists have repeatedly pointed out that avoiding meat and dairy products is the most effective
way for us to reduce our footprints on the planet. A shift towards more meat in diets is also
ecologically unwise from the vantage point of public health. It is widely understood among experts
that meats which we consume regularly can become microbial carriers.
What is common to all the causes behind growing pandemics is the ruptured relationship
between metropolitan humanity and the natural world, upon which the architecture of globalisation
stands. It is particularly dangerous that the causes work in tandem. Thus, deforestation and
degradation of ecosystems, by wiping out wildlife and buffer species and areas, expose humanity to
precisely those microbial carrier species—such as rats and bats—which host pathogens alien and
hazardous to the human immune system.
There is virtual unanimity among scientists and experts in a wide range of related fields that the
pace of invasion of the natural world is generating conditions which make it all but certain that
humanity will continue to face escalating pandemics from known and (many) unknown microbes
well into the future.
“We invade tropical forests and other wild landscapes, which harbour so many species of
animals and plants—and within those creatures, so many unknown viruses,” writes David
Quammen, author of Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Pandemic. “We cut the trees; we kill
the animals or cage them and send them to markets. We disrupt ecosystems, and we shake viruses
loose from their natural hosts. When that happens, they need a new host. Often, we are it.”
Kate Jones, chair of ecology and biodiversity at University College, London, calls emerging
animal-borne infectious diseases an “increasing and very significant threat to global health, security
and economies”. The resulting transmission of disease from wildlife to humans, she says, is now “a
hidden cost of human economic development. There are just so many more of us, in every
environment. We are going into largely undisturbed places and being exposed more and more. We
are creating habitats where viruses are transmitted more easily, and then we are surprised that we
have new ones.”
“There are countless pathogens out there continuing to evolve which at some point could pose a
threat to humans,” says Eric Fevre, chair of veterinary infectious diseases at the University of
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Liverpool’s Institute of Infection and Global Health. “The risk (of pathogens jumping from animals
to humans) has always been there.”
“I am not at all surprised about the coronavirus outbreak,” he says. “The majority of pathogens
are still to be discovered. We are at the very tip of the iceberg.”
Humans, says disease ecologist Thomas Gillespie, are creating the conditions for the spread of
diseases by reducing the natural barriers between host animals—in which the virus is naturally
circulating—and themselves. “We fully expect the arrival of pandemic influenza; we can expect
large-scale human mortalities; we can expect other pathogens with other impacts. A disease like
Ebola is not easily spread. But something with a mortality rate of Ebola spread by something like
measles would be catastrophic,”
Gillespie says. Wildlife everywhere is being put under more stress: “Major landscape changes
are causing animals to lose habitats, which means species become crowded together and also come
into greater contact with humans. Species that survive change are now moving and mixing with
different animals and with humans.”
“The risks are greater now. They were always present and have been there for generations. It is
our interactions with that risk which must be changed,” says Brian Bird, a virologist at the
University of California, Davis. “We are in an era now of chronic emergency,” Bird says. “Diseases
are more likely to travel further and faster than before, which means we must be faster in our
responses. It needs investments, change in human behaviour, and it means we must listen to people
at community levels.”
Finally, it is necessary to point out in an age of denialist solutionism that many so-called
‘solutions’ to major ecological challenges, such as dangerous man-made climate change, may greatly
exacerbate the danger of growing pandemics, creating new problems, often without solutions.
Let us consider the implications of changing patterns of energy use towards a more desirable
(‘green’) mix. We have been told by experts that decarbonising the world economy is an imperative
to prevent runaway climate change and protect organic life. This implies the gradual phasing out
and, ultimately, the elimination of fossil fuels which today constitute over three-quarters of the
world’s energy use. It means that renewable forms of energy (solar, wind, sometimes water) and
electricity generated without coal and oil must come to replace fossil fuels.
Renewable sources of energy will increasingly be relied upon. The transmission advantages of
fossil fuel power will have to be forsaken. The power generated will have to be stored in batteries
which will be deployed at the point of end-use. Everything from Elon Musk’s electric vehicles to
computers and smartphones will run on batteries. Growing amounts of lithium, nickel, cobalt,
manganese, copper, graphite, and rare earths like titanium, molybdenum and vanadium, are thus
critical to the operations of a decarbonising global economy.
The destruction of remote habitats and ecosystems is a necessary consequence of the ceaseless
search for these rare earths and metals. Terrestrial mining typically involves deforestation, water
pollution and human rights abuses. Seabed mining is proposed as an allegedly environmentally
sensitive alternative. The strong likelihood is, however, that it will serve not so much as an
alternative, but an additional source of metals necessary for the working of batteries.
According to researchers associated with the US Geological Survey, the deep sea contains
countless polymetallic nodules more “critical” and rare earth metals necessary for “green
technology” applications than all land reserves combined. Dozens of licences for exploration of the
seabed have already been issued by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a UN body made up
of 168 countries which, interestingly, both promotes and regulates deep-sea mining. Once
underwater mining codes are approved in the near future, giant mining corporations will dive in
and “history’s largest mining operation” will begin.
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Interested are many new business ventures like DeepGreen “whose primary interest in mining
the ocean is saving the planet.” But such mining will devastate the fragile ecosystems of the dark,
deep sea, which may never recover from the damage done by the ocean rovers and robotised
tractors which will plough the seabed in search of the new precious metals of the 21st century.
Environmental and other experts and critics have expressed their deep reservations about such a
venture since it has the potential to damage forever the ecology of the planet. The deep seas are vital,
huge carbon sinks all too significant in a world facing climate breakdown.
The understandable desire to tackle desperately urgent climate crisis is fuelling forms of wider
ecological devastation. To save ourselves from the self-imposed climate threat, we are apparently
willing to take open-ended new risks of wilfully damaging our ecosystems—including even
damaging their very capacity to act as natural carbon sinks.
And that’s not all. Relevant to the discussion about an age of raging pandemics is the question
of potential pathogens that might lurk on the seabed. The density of microbes in seawater is many
million per millilitre, the reason why some scientists are trying to defend the seabed by arguing that
many remedies for the treatment of human ailments might be hidden under the ocean floor.
According to genetic scientist Craig Venter, “the chance of finding new antibiotics in the marine
environment is high.”
Most deep sea microbes, it is understood by scientists, are hosted by the very same metallic
nodules that miners are keen to extract. Oceanographer Jeff Drazen says: “When you lift them off the
seafloor, you’re removing a habitat that took 10 million years to grow.” Disturbing such a primitive
ecosystem, that too in the name of ‘greening’ the planet, is fraught with microbial dangers of the
kind already causing mortal havoc in the terrestrial world. Microbes unseated from their
accustomed marine habitat will surely look for new homes. If hadal trenches are also going to be
disturbed, who knows what new public health perils such a mining mega-adventure will
inadvertently invite upon humanity.
Routine structural violations of ecological niches which constitute the root cause of pandemics are
concomitant with the forces of competitive corporate globalisation. We should expect a permanent
growth and escalation in global pandemics to accompany the globalisation of economic life.
It is very striking that in countries like the UK—egregious failures for the first 12 months of
Covid—a central aspect of their historic, epic fail was their profound unwillingness to face the
reality of the impending virus and to change their practices in response to it. The UK government,
and most others in the world, when it mattered most failed chronically to restrict ‘freedom’ of
movement, to close down economic activity, or to move to new norms of healthful self-protection.
About the only things that the UK government has done well in the entire period since January 2020
are to roll out vaccines and to make tests widely available. What is striking about these things is that
they are: one, tech-based interventions that are, two, designed to seek to return the economy to
business-as-usual.
It tells of the same attitude that characterises most governments’ attitudes towards nature and
climate, and towards civilisational health and wisdom. Our governments are largely interested only
in using tech-fixes to keep the show on the road a while longer. Not in genuine sustainability and in
what makes life worth living. In all such matters, imagination and political will are entirely missing.
It is plainly false to say that global industrial modernity has not bred new diseases, that it has
only discovered pre-existing ones. Throughout its history of several centuries, new diseases have
evolved with the supposed ‘conquest of nature’. With every breach of natural limits, especially in a
world of accelerating globalisation, new diseases are being generated. “The risk of pandemics is
increasing rapidly, with more than five new diseases emerging in people every year, any one of
which has the potential to become pandemic,” a report from a team of scientists working on
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biodiversity says. “It estimates there are more than 500,000 unknown viruses in mammals and birds
that could infect humans” in the near future as the destruction of the natural world proceeds faster.
We are now quite evidently in an “era of pandemics”. They are likely to come in nightmarish waves
of greater frequency and intensity unless ecological sanity miraculously prevails. This may sound like a
dream—given the millions of changes and adjustment such a radical change in human affairs will
involve. But the realisation of such a ‘dream’ is the only way out. At stake is civilisation itself.
This civilisation is terminating itself. The only way we get to continue the adventure of
civilisation now is by transitioning to a radically new one. And that newness will have at its heart
ancient wisdoms. The alternative to the nightmare is a future in which the energy we use is
genuinely renewable, but that we choose to use less of it.
Climate-damage and habitat-destruction are massive probabilifiers of pandemics: the science on
that is pretty unequivocal. You have to choose between having tech-fixated globalisation and having
fewer pandemics.
The health of humanity is directly dependent upon the health of nature. The health of nature is
the health of humans. Taking a unified approach to the mortal crisis of public health and the
catastrophe being inflicted upon the rest of the natural world is the only ecologically wise attitude to
adopt today.
We have been arguing here that you can have a world that cuts off most pandemics or you can
have an economically globalised, artificialised, technophilic world, but you cannot have both.
The world has learnt a new respect for science, especially for the undeniable facts on which
good science rests. But the very real possibility of the lab-leak hypothesis, in the context of its
snarling denial by authorities in the medical world until recently, reminds us powerfully of the
dangers of scientism, quite a different thing from science itself. It is scientism when the domain of all
knowledge and wisdom is sought to be ‘colonised’ by science, its claims and possibilities greatly
exaggerated for usually undisclosed commercial, political, or military purposes, thereby
undermining other forms of valid knowledge, and especially wisdom (which often does not lend
itself to easy scientific verification). Ironically, its effect is to promote more credulity and blind faith
in ‘science’ rather than careful scepticism and a balanced consideration of contending hypotheses.
Studiedly ignored, in particular, are precisely those possibilities which do not sit well with corporate
bottomlines.
This sort of commercially inflected science-worship has nothing to do with science proper.
Corporate science-worship and uncritical acceptance of techno-power is as great a danger in our
world as its opposite: the danger presented by the overtly denialist nonsense of ‘populism’. Instead,
we need a way (a Tao, one might say) that transcends both the ‘all-knowingness’ characteristic of the
modern metropolitan elite and the ‘knownothingness’ that has reactively sprung up against it.
Science alone is, quite simply, not enough to see humanity through a crisis of such cataclysmic
proportions as the one we are in.
Further, to avoid being systematically exposed to the global viral load circulating
internationally due to rapidly growing jet travel, we need to completely remodel contemporary
economies and enact the spirit of relocalisation found, for instance, in the experiments around
Ubuntu in Africa, Pachamama in South America, Bija Swaraj in India, and in the work of activists
such as Gaura Devi in India and Mamphela Ramphele in South Africa, Besime Conca in Kurdistan
and Yu Xiaogang in China.
Naturally occurring viruses are not malicious. Like other organisms, they try to survive,
reproduce, and mutate where necessary and possible. When a species is accustomed to the presence
of a particular virus, there prevails a semblance of what may be called “equilibrium”—since there
are not many deaths in such cases. But if the virus mutates significantly and infects new species, the
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equilibrium is disturbed. There are likely to be many deaths in the new host species until a new
ecological balance is established with the pathogen. Something like this seems to be happening with
the prevailing strands of the coronavirus, getting accustomed to whose presence will ultimately
happen, but at a devastating price in the tens, possibly hundreds, of millions of human lives lost.
Our worst enemy today is public denial—by the highest authorities around the world—
wherein we are told that the pandemic is all but over. There is plenty of evidence that “the forever
virus” is here to stay. It shall return to haunt different parts of the world in recurrent waves of
possibly greater virulence and intensity. It is a reality that accompanies globalisation and eventually
races past it, blighting its future unless it is called off.
Today, when the truth has come home to so many of us, it is time for us to awaken to the reality
that human freedom and survival itself rest symbiotically upon the liberation of the natural world
which has been under ceaseless assault for the last two centuries of industrial overkill. The
coronavirus is one of the last remaining lines of defence that nature has in what is, from its point of
view, a guerrilla war in which its choices are severely constrained. The conquest of nature, the
reigning global myth of modernity, needs to be relinquished if humanity and nature are to survive
this otherwise tragically ill-fated war.
We ignore this wisdom at risk of death, and possibly species extinction.
It’s time to return to life. The only post-Covid world is a post-globalised world. The only future
for us is to create a new civilisation from the gathering ruins of the current one. The industrial
revolution needs to be transcended by an ecological one. Only this can renew our hopes for freedom
in a yet dimly glimpsed future.
(Source: Open Magazine)

CYBER AND EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND THE INTERNATIONAL

SYSTEM
James A. Lewis (Senior vice president Strategic Technologies Program)
New technologies create economic and military power. This has been true for more than a
century. The immediate focus is on digital, networked technologies. The centrality of digital network
technologies to human activity puts a spotlight on their relevance for national security and
highlights the importance of cyber operations.
Cyberspace is a new and not always well-understood domain. The powerful influence of
outdated strategic doctrine constrains new thinking that could help the United States and other
democracies better defend their position in an era of strategic competition. The nature of cyber
operations is significantly different from kinetic action, rendering some precedents from
international affairs less useful. And while the private sector plays a key role in supplying software
and services and expects to play a similarly key role in international cyber policy, it has an
incomplete grasp of the requirements for a durable international strategy. All of these factors
complicate democracies’ development of effective policies.
Cyber does not fundamentally change trends in international power. These trends are the
decreased utility of post-1945 institutions and rules, the decline in Western global influence
(particularly in Europe), and the emergence of new powers. The growing number of countries with
cyber capabilities see them as another tool to pursue their national objectives. For most, this means
espionage and surveillance, but for a few, cyber operations are a tool of coercion. Unfortunately for
western democracies, the leading coercive actors are Russia, China, and in some instances, Iran
(although its actions are mainly against its neighbours). This is not “grey zone conflict”—a
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nineteenth-century notion which implies some middle ground between war and peace. Cyber is not
a grey zone but a central arena for inter-state conflict.
Russia is the source of the most dangerous coercive actions. Its intent is to weaken democratic
opponents and create political unrest among allies, and it builds on its expertise and history of
political interference. It has a well-developed doctrine for coercive cyber techniques. Russia has had
some success and shows no sign of abandoning its long, occasionally covert campaign against the
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members.
The failure of the West to react in any meaningful way has only encouraged the Russians and
increased their influence.
China, while it has studied Russia’s coercive cyber operations, emphasizes cyber espionage as a
key part of its national strategy. This important change highlights how the contours of interstate
conflict have changed from Cold War-style military contests. This is not conventional political-
military espionage, but spying aimed to provide China with commercial advantages and
technological leadership, and ultimately a dominant global position. It, too, has had remarkable
success; cyber espionage, combined with predatory commercial and trade practices and heavy
government spending (often in contravention of China’s World Trade Organization (WTO)
commitments), has made China the second most powerful economy in the world. China is strong in
some technologies, such as autonomous vehicles, genetic engineering, and quantum encryption, but
it lags across the board and Xi Jinping’s quest for tighter political control may slow its ability to
innovate.
China’s economic success and Russian aggression are one way technology has fundamentally
shifted the balance of power. China and Russia are not dominant, but they hope to exploit the
fraying of the post-1945 international order to advance their interests, undercut the democratic
narrative, and reassert sovereign rights over universal values. Chinese leaders are firm in their belief
that the United States and Europe are in irreversible decline and that Western policies are a form of
containment. The Kremlin also believes the West is in decline due to their decadence (democratic
values) and polarization (which their policies foment), but Russian leaders require contestation with
the West to preserve the regime. Chinese leaders prefer Western acquiescence but are prepared for
increased contestation.
Cyber technologies enable coercive action and espionage. They also enable a struggle for control
of the global political narrative and international operating system that shapes international power.
Both Russia and China realize this, but both have had difficulty in articulating a compelling
alternative narrative externally while maintaining complete control internally. Russia utilizes
information as a weapon but does so as a defensive measure. Information is not a weapon, but it is a
threat to internal political stability, especially to governments that lack mechanisms for
accommodating dissent and political change.
Both countries have their own constraining domestic political and economic dynamics and
should not be viewed as unstoppable giants. But they have chosen conflict, albeit in unconventional
forms, and cyber is the premier point of engagement.
Cyber actions and informational conflict take place in the context of a larger technological
competition. Countries that are strong in creating new technologies have advantages, but there are
only a handful of such countries, with China and Russia among them. Most “innovator nations” are
Western democracies, but they now face forceful competitors. While many technologies are
commercially available (so those who cannot make can buy), the leaders in innovation will always
have a long-term advantage, and this favours the West.
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In this contest, Europe and the United States have been handicapped by their own politics. In
the 1990s, the United States cut investment in crucial public goods like science, technology,
engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education and fundamental research.
This weakened its innovation ecosystem. The European Union’s governance shortcomings and
internal tensions between member states on industrial policy hampered the European Union’s
ability to create and capitalize on new technologies. One result of this was Europe’s failure to take
advantage of the digital technology revolution that began in the 1990s. While the current leadership
in Brussels is taking steps to remedy this, it faces a difficult task—especially since the departure of
the United Kingdom means the loss of the European Union’s only major cyber power and of one of
the world’s premier centers for technological innovation.
Europe has a strong research and engineering base, but a predilection for regulation can
interfere with innovation and growth. Innovation is half the story; the other is entrepreneurship.
Entrepreneurs turn research into product, but this requires an acceptance of risk not always found in
European business culture. The result is that China has not displaced the United States
technologically; it has displaced Europe.
This is not in the interest of the United States since it changes the international order in ways
that are adverse for US interests because a strong Europe is essential for American strategic interests.
While Europe’s confidence in the United States has been shaken—leading to more calls for “strategic
autonomy”—and while its concern over its place in the digital world has led to similar calls for
technological sovereignty, rebuilding a transatlantic partnership in digital technology is in the
interest of both the United States and Europe. The formation of such a partnership remains ill-
defined. The Biden administration has begun to change this, but it faces other issues, such as a lack
of common transatlantic understanding of data protection, competitiveness policy, and content
regulation.
One problem for the United States is that while it is likely the world’s leader in cyber espionage
capabilities, it is espionage in service of what was, until recently, an erratic national strategy. The
best intelligence in the world did not compensate for this. Additionally, while the United States still
leads the world in technological innovation (although not by as much in the past), it is recovering
from two decades of misdirected resources. Had even a fraction of the trillions of dollars spent in
Iraq and Afghanistan been devoted to technology and innovation, the United States would be in a
much stronger position in any global technology race. A lack of strategic focus in these new domains
means that, in colloquial terms, the United States has been “punching below its weight” on the
global stage.
Technology competition comes at a moment when today’s technological environment is being
rapidly reshaped by cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G (soon 6G) networks. There is a
movement toward a hybrid environment where virtual and physical blend seamlessly. The nations
that lead in this will have increased military and economic advantage. These current technologies
will be followed by some hybrid realties applications, genetic engineering, and widespread
automation. Technological change will remake business and societies by changing incentives and
costs. This does not mean, however, that there will be mass unemployment. People will find new
ways to create value. This has been true since the dawn of automation, and it will probably involve
creating intangible goods and services. The fact that the creation of value and new jobs does not
involve a linear, easily predictable process probably explains much of the anxiety and uncertainty
over the next technological transition.
Compensating for the inevitable shifts in power created by digital technologies (combined with
other factors) requires the United States to develop new ways to work with allies in Japan, Australia,
and Europe to develop the commercial and military applications of emerging technologies such as
quantum, biotech, and artificial intelligence. This cannot be an anti-China coalition but rather a new
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group with processes to accelerate growth, ensure technological parity, and protect democratic
values. The central dilemma is that while governments must ensure a framework for cooperation,
the actual work will be done in the private sector. If Western nations can develop such processes, it
will shift the technological trends in power relations in their favour.
(Source: Report titled “The Future of the International System”)

WHY IS NORTH KOREA’S NUCLEAR

PROGRAMME SUCH A THREAT?
North Korea ‘appears’ to have restarted a nuclear reactor, according to the United Nations’
nuclear watchdog, raising concerns that the country is expanding its nuclear programme.
The exact nuclear capacity of North Korea, one of the most hermetic countries on earth, remains
unclear. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)’s inspectors were expelled from the
country in 2009. However, the United States Army said last year that Pyongyang could have 20 to 60
nuclear bombs, and be capable of manufacturing 6 new ones.
North Korea would become just one of nine states including India, Israel, Pakistan, China,
France, the United Kingdom, Russia and the US that has nuclear weapons.
So then why is North Korea’s programme raising alarms?
Producing atomic weapons under no international watch
Only five countries are officially recognised as a “nuclear-weapon state” under the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT): China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States.
North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003.
Today, the United States and Russia each deploy roughly 1,350 strategic warheads on several
hundred bombers and missiles - a significantly higher number than what North Korea is suspected
of having.
But those countries recognised in the treaty are not supposed to build and maintain such
weapons in perpetuity.
Even though North Korea ranks among the poorest countries in the world, it spends nearly a
quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP) on military - that’s more than 170 other countries that
are tracked by the United States.
Remaining a self declared nuclear weapon state, North Korea’s military activities remain
unchecked by international entities and not tested for safety.
The IAEA, which watches Pyongyang from afar through satellite images, said a new nuclear
testing appeared to have begun, and its indications are “deeply troubling.”
“[North Korea’s] nuclear activities continue to be a cause for serious concern. Since early July
2021, there have been indications, including the discharge of cooling water, consistent with the
operation,” the report (PDF) said about the reactor at Yongbyon nuclear complex, which is at the
heart of North Korea's nuclear programme.
The concerns centre around the possibility that the reactor is likely producing atomic weapons,
the deadliest armament in the world.
The country’s 5-megawatt (MW) reactor is capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium,
and more plutonium could help North Korea make smaller nuclear weapons, David Albright,
president of the Institute for Science and International Security told Reuters.
Supreme Leader of North Korea Kim Jong Un in January revealed plans to modernise its
nuclear technology with a focus on miniaturised nuclear weapons and submarines.
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Far reaching nuclear missiles, far reaching consequences

Smaller nuclear weapons would mean they could fit on ballistic missiles that the US and its
Asian ally, South Korea, see as a grave security threat.
In July and November 2017, the North Korean regime tested its intercontinental ballistic
missiles (ICBM), each capable of carrying a large nuclear warhead that could travel as far as 10,000
km.
But the country’s unchecked nuclear activities may already be having other far reaching
consequences through a third country benefiting from its nuclear capacity.
Syria, another widely sanctioned country, for example, is known to have had nuclear
cooperation with the country since as early as 1997.
In 2007, Israel carried out an airstrike in Syria on a building that was said to be a replica of
North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor, killing a number of North Korean technicians.
Syria's nuclear relationship with North Korea, however, expanded to the chemical weapons
trade during the war that began in 2011.
On April 4, 2017, an attack single-handedly killed almost 100 people in Syria’s Khan Shaykhun,
a town in southern Idlib.
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OCPW) confirmed suspicions of
the use of the internationally banned chemical weapon Sarin’s use in the attack while evidence
gathered on has built one of the strongest cases against the Syrian regime leader Bashar al Assad.
The international chemical weapons watchdog OPCW in July this year said its investigations
revealed that in 16 other instances of chemical weapons were likely or definitely used in Syria. The
West mainly accuses the Syrian regime of being behind the attacks, while the UN accuses North
Korea of selling chemical weapon supplies to Syria.
Iran, Egypt, Libya, Pakistan and Yemen are also among the countries that have been involved in
a nuclear or missile trade with Pyongyang.
After decades of denuclearisation talks, the leadership of the country sees its nuclear
programme as essential to its regime’s survival and uses its nuclear power to push for relief of
international sanctions by the UN Security Council and the US.
(Source: TRT World)

EUROPE’S NEW REFUGEE CRISIS

Slawomir Sierakowski (Director of the Institute for Advanced Study in Warsaw)
The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan has already deepened conflicts elsewhere, including
Europe, where a confrontation is escalating between Belarus and its European Union neighbours:
Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Even before the meltdown in Kabul, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko had been
funnelling refugees and migrants across the border, both to exact revenge for EU sanctions on his
dictatorship and to generate some additional revenue. Belarusian authorities have organised flights
from Iraqi and Turkish cities. After charging several thousand dollars per passenger and promising
safe and seamless delivery to Western Europe, they have been dumping their human cargo on the
Polish, Lithuanian or Latvian border.
Since the beginning of the year, more than 4,000 refugees have reached Lithuania—a 50-fold
increase from 2020—shaking local communities and roiling domestic public opinion. Faced with the
influx, Lithuania and Latvia have introduced a state of emergency. Now Poland, where there have
already been several hundred attempts to foist refugees across the border, is joining them. Confused,
lost, and hungry refugees are being captured in border towns and forcibly returned to the Belarusian
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side. Although such ‘pushbacks’ run afoul of the Geneva Convention, EU countries have
increasingly relied on the practice.
Poland is openly ignoring the right of all refugees to apply for international protection. Rather
than placing them in designated centres and investigating their claims, Polish authorities are expelling
them as quickly as possible. As a result, there are growing encampments in the border zone.
For the past two weeks, the country’s attention has been drawn to a group of 32 migrants from
Afghanistan who were sent back to the Polish-Belarusian border: haggard men, women and children
wandering the border area, boxed in by border guards, military personnel and police from both
countries. They sleep on the ground, while lawyers, journalists, opposition MPs and even doctors
are given no access. Polish authorities have not provided food, so the refugees are surviving on
bread from the Belarusians and water from a stream. Without hygiene or medicine, more and more
of them are falling ill.
Meanwhile, Poland’s de facto leader, the Law and Justice (PiS) party chairman Jaroslaw
Kaczynski, has been exploiting the situation for his own propaganda purposes, hoping that
opposition to accepting refugees will have a similar galvanising effect for his supporters as it did in
2015. PiS is growing more desperate now that its support has dropped to 30%—a level that no
longer guarantees an electoral victory.
The Polish government wants to create an atmosphere of fear, so that it can position itself as the
guardian of a supposedly endangered society. The authorities immediately sent helicopters and
1,000 armed soldiers to face a group of desperate unarmed people. A high barbed-wire fence is now
being erected along the border with Belarus, where the prime minister and cabinet ministers have
staged visits dressed in military uniforms, promising to rescue Poles ‘from a new wave of refugees’.
On 25 August, the European Court of Human Rights ordered Poland to provide refugees on the
border with water, food, clothes, medical care and, if possible, temporary shelter. But the Polish
government claims that it is dealing with illegal immigrants who could not be helped anyway,
because they are on the Belarusian side of the border (which is not true). To create an alibi, it has
sent a truck with food and medicine to a border crossing far from where the Afghans are camped
out. As predicted, Belarus is denying the truck entry.
None of this adds up, because all sides are engaged in the most cynical kind of politics. Belarus
is refusing to allow aid to reach the refugees while simultaneously boasting that it is helping with
the evacuation of Afghans from Kabul. Poland, similarly, is refusing entry to Afghan refugees while
simultaneously accepting thousands of Belarusians fleeing Lukashenko’s dictatorship.
The Polish government’s behaviour has drawn harsh criticism from the liberal media, NGOs
and the opposition. But the response of Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister and
European Council president who returned to domestic politics recently, has been notably subdued.
Though Tusk criticises the government for refusing to provide the most basic assistance to the
refugees, he also stresses the need to maintain tight control over the border.
Tusk well knows that ordinary Poles are not as sympathetic towards refugees as the liberal
media and NGOs are. This is confirmed by an Institute for Market and Social Research (IBRiS)
survey showing that a majority of Poles (54%) are against accepting immigrants and refugees,
whereas only 38% of respondents support opening the borders to them. When asked whether a wall
should be erected on the border between Poland and Belarus, 47% of respondents answered yes,
while 43% disagreed.
The Polish government’s response has been carefully executed to achieve a maximum
propaganda effect. If the Polish authorities were truly worried about the refugees camped out at the
border (and others who might be sent by Lukashenko), they would have erected a fence a month or
two ago. Everyone has known about the similar situation at the Lithuanian-Belarusian border for
quite some time. A coordinated propaganda operation by the Polish and Belarusian governments
could not be more effective. (Source: The Strategist)
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International Law
RELIGIOUS FREEDOM IN MYANMAR AND INTERNATIONAL LAW
Muhammad Zamir (Former Ambassador of Bangladesh)
The Office of International Religious Freedom has recently issued its 2020 report on observance
of religious freedom in Myanmar. This has drawn the world's attention given recent media coverage
observing that friction between the Buddhist majority population and other ethnic and religious
minorities is again on the rise in Myanmar.
It has been observed that this growing apathy in that country is inconsistent with that country's
constitution. It may be noted that Myanmar's constitution guarantees every citizen "the right to
freely profess and practice religion subject to public order, morality, or health and to the other
provisions of this Constitution." The law also apparently prohibits speech or acts insulting or
defaming any religion or religious beliefs.
The world, it may be recalled, remembers the violence, discrimination, and harassment in
Myanmar's Rakhine State that targeted ethnic Rohingyas, nearly all Muslims and also other minority
populations elsewhere in the country. In fact, the Myanmar military's commission of ethnic
cleansing and other mass atrocities against the Rohingya population in August 2017, during the
civilian government led by now imprisoned Aung San Suu Chi displaced more than 700,000
refugees to Bangladesh. Their number in Bangladesh, taking into account earlier such displacement,
before 2017 and the number of births that have taken place in the Rohingya refugee camps since
2017, now stands at about 1.1 million.
An estimated 520,000 to 600,000 Rohingyas still remain in the Rakhine State. Among them an
estimated 130,000 are living in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps, according to Human
Rights Watch. There are also small communities of Hindus and practitioners of traditional Chinese
and indigenous religions. In addition, there is a very small Jewish community in Yangon (Rangoon).
It would also be worthwhile to note that the Rohingya people living in Myanmar have
continued to face an environment of severe repression and restrictions on freedom of movement and
access to education, healthcare, and livelihoods based on their ethnicity, religion, and citizenship
status, according to the United Nations and nongovernmental organisations (NGOs).
Rohingyas are still suffering ongoing abuses in Rakhine State because of the continuing
government pressure to participate in a residency verification campaign. During the year, several
UN entities have also commented or released reports on the Rohingya crisis. In September, the
former UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation of Human Rights in Myanmar said the government
was purposefully evading accountability and making it difficult for Rohingya refugees to safely
return to Rakhine State as part of the government's goal of "exterminating their basic identity."
Religious leaders and civil society activists have reported that some government and military
officials have continued to deploy anti-Rohingya and anti-Muslim rumours and hate speech in
official events. Rohingya, both in Rakhine State and those living in Bangladesh have also faced mass
disenfranchisement during the Myanmar general elections held in November, 2020 because of
discriminatory citizenship policies. The government barred seven Rohingya politicians from
running in the elections on citizenship grounds.
Non-Buddhist minority groups, including Christians, Hindus, and Muslims have also indicated
that the authorities are restricting religious practices, denying freedom of movement to members of
religious minority groups, closing places of worship, denying or failing to approve permits for
religious buildings and repairs, and discriminating in employment and housing. It has been
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observed that the selective denial of humanitarian assistance by the Myanmar military is now
prevalent in some conflict areas, including Kachin, Chin, and Rakhine States.
Various forms of Christianity are dominant among the Kachin, Chin, and Naga ethnic groups.
Christianity is also practised widely among the Karen and Karenni ethnic groups, although some
Karen are Muslims. Individuals of South Asian ancestry, who are concentrated in major cities and in
the south-central region, are predominantly Hindus or Muslims, although some are Christians.
Chinese ethnic minority groups generally practise traditional Chinese religions and to a lesser extent
Islam and Christianity. Some smaller ethnic groups in the highland regions observe traditional
indigenous beliefs. According to media reports, ethnic armed organisations in the country have
continued to pose threats to religious freedom. In the Wa Self-administered Division, where the
government has very little administrative control, the United WA State Army (UWSA) has tightened
restrictions on practising Christianity and has laid down the rule that such worship would be
limited to no more than four families together in some areas.
Similarly, it has been noted that some leaders and members of the Buddha Dhamma Parahita
Foundation (formerly Ma Ba Tha) have continued to issue pejorative statements against Muslims.
They have continued propagating anti-Muslim speech in sermons and through social media.
Interestingly, attention in this regard has also been drawn by the Burma Monitor, an NGO focused
on monitoring and analysing hate speech, that more than 100 Ma Ba Tha-affiliated candidates were
registered to run in the 2020 general elections, mostly from nationalist parties such as the
Democratic Party of National Politics, the military-linked National Development Party, and the
People's Pioneer Party.
It would however be pertinent to note that some Myanmar civil society groups, despite
difficulties, are trying in their own way to improve interreligious tolerance and respect for religious
practices. This has been reflected in the "White Rose" campaign that was constituted after an anti-
Muslim, Buddhist nationalist mob shut down of temporary Ramadan prayer sites in Yangon in 2019.
It would be pertinent to observe at this point that in June, the Acting USAID Administrator
noted that freedom of religion was a key component of national security and that the US response to
promote accountability for those involved in the ethnic cleansing of Rohingya remained a top
priority. Such a view is consistent with US financial sanctions that have been imposed in December
2019 on the Burmese military commander-in-chief, his deputy, and two brigadier generals for
human rights violations against members of ethnic and religious minority groups. It may also be
added that US embassy representatives, including the Ambassador, has frequently been meeting
with Buddhist, Muslim, Christian, Jewish, and Hindu leaders, including ethnic minority religious
leaders, to highlight concerns about religion-based abuses, including discrimination, and have also
called for respect for religious freedom and the values of diversity and tolerance in statements and
other public messaging. It also needs to be observed that on December 2, 2020, the then USSecretary
of State redesignated Burma as a a "Country of Particular Concern" (CPC) and reiterated sanction
that is consistent with this designation: the existing ongoing arms embargo referenced in 22 CFR
126.1(a) pursuant to section 402(c) (5) of the Act.
It would be significant to note here that according to Myanmar law, all organisations, whether
secular or religious, must register with the government to obtain official status. This official status is
required for organisations to gain title to land, obtain construction permits, and conduct religious
activities. The law on registering organisations however specifies voluntary registration for local
NGOs.
The Ministry of Religious Affairs Department for the Perpetuation and Propagation of the
Sasana (Buddhist teaching) also oversees the government's relations with Buddhist monks and
schools. Religious education is not included in public schools; however, some schools with
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Buddhist-majority student bodies start the school day with a Buddhist prayer. This is not permitted
in the case of Muslim Madrasas or most schools run by some other religions.
One should also note another interesting aspect within the Myanmar dimension. Four laws
passed in 2015 were supposedly for the "protection of race and religion", and they remain very much
in effect. The Buddhist Women Special Marriage law stipulates notification and registration
requirements for marriages between non-Buddhist men and Buddhist women, obligations that non-
Buddhist husbands must observe, or suffer penalties for noncompliance.
The Religious Conversion law also regulates conversion through an extensive application and
approval process through a township-level Religious Board for Religious Conversion. However, the
law is rarely applied, as many townships do not have conversion boards. The applicant must be
older than 18 and must undergo a waiting period of up to 180 days. If the applicant still wishes to
convert, the board issues a certificate of religious conversion. The Population Control Law allows for
the designation of special zones where population control measures may be applied, including
authorising local authorities to implement three-year birth spacing. The Monogamy Law bans
polygamous practices, which the country's penal code also criminalises.
All of the above processes within the legal paradigm continue to prevail in Myanmar and that
country is not a party to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. In this regard one
needs to recall how accountability has ceased to exist in that country because the Tatmadaw
continues to operate with impunity. According to NGO Fortify Rights, two former soldiers
confessed in videos recorded in July by the Arakan Army to having taken part in atrocities
committed by the army against Rohingya in 2017. In the recording, the soldiers said they were
involved in killing more than 180 Rohingya men, women, and children in Taung Buzar Village and
surrounding villages in Buthidaung and five villages in Maungdaw during military operations in
Rakhine State in late 2017. One also admitted to committing rape in Taung Buzar Village, Rakhine
State. At year's end, the two men were reportedly in the custody of the International Criminal Court
(ICC) in The Hague.
However, nothing has happened since then. Important and powerful countries are only bothered
about democracy in Myanmar but they have failed to look into the issue of whether religious freedom
is being practised in the country consistent with international law and democratic practices.
(Source: Financial Express)

HOW INTERNATIONAL LAW FACILITATES THE BOMBING OF

CIVILIANS IN THE US WAR ON TERROR
This analysis summarizes and reflects on the following research: Nylen, A. J. (2020). Frontier justice:
International law and ‘lawless’ spaces in the “War on Terror”.
The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, ushered in a dramatic new era in US foreign and
national security policy, particularly the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF). Since
then, the AUMF has been used by three presidential administrations to justify US military action
against al-Qaeda and its “associated forces” in so-called frontier territories—areas that are out of
state control but fall within a state’s territorial boundaries and sometimes are administered by tribal
or other local groups hostile to the state. Frontier territories are not stateless but constitute a different
category of political organization not formally recognized in international law.
Bearing in mind the legal principles governing the law of war, Alexandria J. Nylen asks how the
discourse of international law was used to facilitate extraterritorial US drone strikes in frontier
territories within Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. She argues that the US government under the
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Obama Administration constructed the concept of frontier territories to “sidestep legal constraints”
in jus ad bellum and jus in bello rules of military force “to cover up what many would consider
extra-legal behavior.” Her resulting analysis demonstrates “how violence, visibility, and territory
factor into exercises of state power,” rendering civilian casualties as necessary to defend against
global terrorism.
The research first examines how international law can be construed to fit the political agendas
of powerful countries and, second, offers a discourse analysis of 16 documents (internal memos and
public speeches) from the Obama Administration on the legal standing of drone strikes.
The concept of state sovereignty underpins international law, creating an “inside/outside”
binary that casts territories that defy clear legal categorization, like frontier territories, as lawless. This
results in “legal grey zones” where powerful countries can define frontier territories in ways that
enhance the areas’ presumed lack of political and legal institutions and selectively interpret
international law to advance a militarized solution to a stated lack of order. For instance, the author’s
discourse analysis found that frontier territories were described by the Obama Administration as
“lawless,” “chaotic,” and “unforgiving,” and framed as distinctive areas from the countries where they
are located. As a result, these territories are “subjected to different norms of state violence,” because
powerful countries can advance a “false assumption [that] designates them as less deserving of
protection from external aggression.” Imposing the rule of law in frontier territories through military
force becomes the policy objective viewed as the “normative good,” regardless of the existence of local,
non-Euro-American-based governing structures in those territories.
By designating the location of drone strikes as frontier territories, a category outside the
traditional understanding of state sovereignty upon which international law is based, the Obama
Administration bent the interpretation of jus ad bellum and jus in bello principles regarding the use
of military force. The discourse analysis revealed that the Obama Administration relied on the
Geneva Conventions to justify the legality of drone strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia. First,
regarding jus ad bellum principles, the Administration argued that the war against Al-Qaeda was
justified as a non-international armed conflict (NIAC), which would permit the US military to
conduct drone strikes in areas outside active war zones, based on the US’s right to respond to and
defend itself against imminent attacks. This claim hinged on the reinterpretation of US Supreme
Court case Hamdam vs. Rumsfeld, which defined US military operations against Al-Qaeda as a
NIAC, but that categorization only applied to the US’s operations in Afghanistan. In legal white
papers reviewed for the discourse analysis, Hamdam vs. Rumsfeld was applied to all global
counterterrorism operations.
Second, regarding jus in bello principles, the Obama Administration argued that any lethal action in
frontier territories was legitimate if it was conducted in line with principles stated in NIAC law.
However, international law is less specific about what principles apply to NIACs compared to interstate
war. This allowed the Administration “to claim that it still uph[e]ld and respect[ed] international law in
its military operations…within the framework of a more permissive set of regulations.”
The discourse analysis revealed no reference to “local law or ordering principles” in the areas
subject to drone strikes. Ironically, the drone strikes have made local governance more difficult in
these territories. One example illustrates this reality in Pakistan’s North Waziristan territory where the
US attacked a local dispute council during a two-day meeting, killing nearly 50 people. While the US
contended that this drone strike was justified via its legal reasoning, eyewitnesses argue that none of
the victims were militants. As result, local councils are wary to meet, fearing that their activities might
be misconstrued as threatening by US drone pilots. The legal machinations noted here, paired with
these territories’ invisibility due to their marginalization in an international system based in state
sovereignty, renders extraterritorial state violence permissible with few checks to state power.
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Informing Practice
This research underscores the politicized nature of law and its execution penned by Martin Luther
King Jr. in his Letter from a Birmingham Jail: “Sometimes a law is just on its face and unjust in its
application.” The Geneva Conventions were written to protect civilians from war but have been
convoluted by powerful countries—namely, the US—to justify attacks on civilian populations in pursuit
of global counterterrorism operations. Importantly, both Republican and Democratic administrations
have advanced this interpretation and continued drone strikes with unchecked power and without
congressional oversight. This is the legacy of the US response to terrorism following September 11th,
and it is critical to re-examine drone strikes as an source of national security.
Little is publicly known about drone strikes, but awareness of the issue has increased due to
whistleblower leaks and investigative journalism. Critiques of drone warfare can be categorized in
terms of ethics and effectiveness. Reports from whistleblowers and investigative journalists
demonstrate the enormous civilian toll of drone strikes, despite official government claims that
drone strikes are precise in targeting. For example, during a five-month period in Afghanistan, close
to 90% of the people killed were not the “intended targets.” Not only are drone strikes imprecise in
their targeting, but their use has also had dubious effects on combatting the terrorist organizations
that the strategy is intended to target. Look at the Taliban in Afghanistan: the very first organization
and country that became the target of the US’s global counterterrorism operations is still operating
and, if initial reports are true, is beginning the use of unmanned drones to carry out attacks against
the Afghan government. Not only has the Taliban persisted in the face of US drone strikes and
military intervention, but they have also increased their capacity and toolset to continue their violent
campaign to regain control over Afghanistan.
Returning to and rethinking the accepted phrase of “intended targets,” the application of drone
warfare presents a serious ethical dilemma as it essentially casts all military-aged men in these areas
as militants, regardless of their actual role in hostilities. It is undeniably indiscriminate in its
execution. Yet, the risks involve not only loss of life for civilians. Research demonstrates the massive
trauma that communities in the target regions of drone strikes experience, describing emotional
breakdowns, nightmares, loss of appetite, insomnia, and other emotional and physical symptoms.
Similar signs of trauma are present in the US military personnel tasked with intelligence gathering
and target striking.
Yet, despite these problems with drone strikes, the US continues to use them, as recently as July
2021 in Somalia. The lack of congressional oversight and approval for military action is likely one
reason why drone strikes continue. Bringing Congress back into the decision-making process by re-
asserting its war-making power can help to draw back the President’s unchecked power to bomb
civilians. Imagine, for example, if Congress had asserted its authority and challenged the Obama
Administration’s legal rationale, pointing out the reinterpretation of court cases and the Geneva
Conventions and refusing to authorize military action. Imagine also if, instead of adopting a
misguided military security paradigm, the US had responded to terrorism with peace-building tools.
How many civilians would still be alive today, and how much closer might we be to a world where
violent extremist groups do not readily find recruits and support?
(Source: Peace Science Digest)
 154

CRIME OF ECOCIDE
Greening the International Criminal Law
Siddharth Singh (Faculty of Legal Studies, South Asian University, New Delhi)
In June 2021, an Independent Expert Panel under the aegis of Stop Ecocide Foundation
presented a newly-drafted definition for the crime of ‘ecocide.’ The Panel consisting of 12
international lawyers proposed that the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC)
should be amended to include ecocide as the fifth international crime along with the crime of
genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. The inclusion of the
crime of ecocide in the Statute will entitle ICC to investigate, prosecute, and try individuals accused
of causing grave harm to the environment.
The term ecocide comprises the Greek word ‘oikos,’ meaning house or environment, and ‘cide,’
meaning an act of killing. Premised upon the term ‘genocide,’ ecocide means the significant
destruction of the natural environment by human actions. In 1970, it was first used by Arthur
Galston, an American biologist, at the Conference on War and National Responsibility in
Washington DC. The term was further quoted by the Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme in his
opening speech at the 1972 United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (UNCHE) in
Stockholm. Since then, multiple efforts were made to include ecocide within international law.
Interestingly, it was adopted as an additional crime in the early drafts of the Rome Statute; however,
later, it was dropped due to the lack of an adequate definition. If succeeded this time, it will be a
significant victory for the environment since none of the existing international criminal laws secures
it as an end-in-itself.
Definition of the crime of ecocide
The Panel has defined the crime of ecocide as, “For the purpose of this Statute, “ecocide” means
unlawful or wanton acts committed with knowledge that there is a substantial likelihood of severe
and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment being caused by those acts.”
The definition comprises two thresholds that should be fulfilled to constitute a crime of ecocide.
Firstly, there should exist a substantial likelihood that the ‘acts’ (including omissions) will cause
severe and either widespread or long-term damage to the environment. In other words, along with
the damages causing severe harm to the elements of the environment, such damages must have an
impact on a wider geographical location or for an unreasonably longer duration.
It is appreciable that the Panel has widened the scope of the definition by incorporating spatial
and temporal dimensions to its meaning. However, they have changed their position adopted in the
previous legal instruments to employ a mix of conjunctive and disjunctive formulations in the
definition. In addition to its severe nature, such harm could be either widespread or long-term to
constitute a crime of ecocide. Thus, any severe and widespread activity, such as chopping down
huge rainforests, could be attributed to ecocide. Similarly, any severe activity whose consequences
prevail for a longer duration, for example, causing the extinction of a plant or animal species, could
also amount to the crime of ecocide.
Instant reading of the first threshold indicates that the ecocide definition might include day-to-
day human activities that contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental
damages. It raises a question – Whether humans are environmental criminals? Though, it might be
true that most human actions, directly or indirectly, are continuously degrading the ecosystem
around us. However, the definition of ecocide is primarily concerned with the large polluters whose
irresponsible activities at a massive level are a threat to the environment. Thus, to narrow down the
ambit of the definition and identify criminal activities precisely, the Panel added a second threshold,
that is, the ‘acts’ causing damage to the environment must be unlawful or wanton.
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It means, only when the actions are either prohibited under national or international laws or
indicate a reckless disregard for excessive destruction of the environment in achieving social and
economic benefits will they amount to the crime of ecocide. The second threshold hints towards an
anthropocentric approach of the definition and protects a range of human activities deemed
necessary, desirable, and legitimate for human welfare. To determine the lawfulness of the acts, the
actions should be seen with their potential social and economic values. The ecocide definition relies
upon the principle of sustainable development to balance environmental destruction with human
development and prohibits all destructive activities that outweigh their social and economic
benefits. It also means that the definition places a ‘limited’ environmental harm outside the scope of
the definition, which cannot be avoided for achieving social welfare that includes housing
developments or establishing transport links.
The proposed definition is more concerned with the massive instances of environmental
damages. It does not consider small ‘necessary’ ecological harms caused by day-to-day human
activities. However, it is equally essential these negligible-looking destructive contributions of
humans, made in their individual capacity, should not go unnoticed. These small contributions
combined with each other also significantly impact the environment in the form of climate change,
biodiversity loss, and other hazards. Thus, the reckless human lifestyle is a significant issue and
needs to be regulated through some international code of conduct, if not as ecocide.
Undoubtedly, the proposed ecocide definition is a remarkable effort that should be appreciated
for multiple reasons. First of all, the release of this definition indicates that the time has come to start
penalizing environmental offenders and create deterrence so that such destructive activities can be
minimized. It establishes the responsibility and accountability of big corporate houses and political
leaders whose regular investments are causing substantial harm to the environment. Moreover, this
definition founds its bases upon many core principles and concepts of public international law,
international environmental law, international humanitarian law, and international criminal law.
For instance, the principle of no transboundary harm, sustainable development, proportionality, and
necessity are aptly referred to in the ecocide definition. Moreover, it also provides a sufficiently
broad definition of the term ‘environment’ to primarily include any damage committed towards the
earth, its biosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere, and outer space.
Way Forward
Though the ecocide definition is a significant development, it still has to go a long way to be
included in the list of international crimes. For this purpose, any of the 123 member states to the
Rome Statute can officially submit the definition to the UN Secretary-General. The proposal has to
be accepted for further consideration by the majority of the members through voting. Further, the
text will be subjected to debates and deliberations and must be passed by a two-thirds majority of
the members. Moreover, the member states need to ratify or accept the proposed text. Only after one
year of such ratification or acceptance ICC may exercise its jurisdiction over the crimes of ecocide
committed afterward. This entire process can take many years or even decades to get completed. It is
also possible that the structure of the current definition might change in due course of its acceptance.
Today, it is unclear that whether this definition will succeed in amending the Rome Statute or
not, but what can be said with certainty is that this definition will play a crucial role in building
awareness and discourse around ecocide among the governments, corporate houses, professionals,
and masses across the globe. With the pressing needs of humans and prevailing threats to the
environment, it is the right time that the actions of the offenders should be regulated through the
prism of international criminal law.
(Source: Modern Diplomacy)
 156

International Relations
THE CULTURAL REVOLUTION OF THE
WEST AND WORLD POLITICS
Richard Sakwa (Professor of Russian and European Politics at the University of Kent at Canterbury)
In 1945 the US agreed to compromise its unfettered freedom of action in international affairs in
the belief that engagement with allies and adversaries through multilateral agencies would avoid
the pitfalls of the interwar period while rendering US power more legitimate, and thereby more
effective. This bargain between power and legitimacy proved remarkably effective, and helped the
political West survive and triumph in the Cold War. However, the tension between the autonomy of
the Charter (Yalta-Potsdam) international system and the institutions of liberal hegemony were
evident, although disguised during the Cold War.
As Soviet power waned, from the 1970s a more assertive liberal hegemony emerged, initially
eroding the Keynesian domestic bargain and then from the late 1970s challenging the legitimacy of
the Soviet Union itself, a process aided by catastrophic Soviet mistakes, notably the invasion of
Afghanistan in December 1979, and demonstrated by the rise of Solidarity in Poland the following
year. The demise of the Soviet Union removed checks on international liberalism, and its
radicalisation in the form of the expansive ambitions of liberal hegemony is at the heart of post-1989
international politics.
The US-led liberal international order is inspired by a combination of Wilson’s idealism and
Roosevelt’s realism. It took shape in the middle years of the twentieth century and was formulated
in terms of a commitment to an Atlantic-based system of universal values. The liberal international
order is based on universal rules, market-based economies and democratic communities, grounded
in a set of norms, rules and institutions that reflect liberal principles, with the US acting as the
ultimate guarantor. In the postwar years this ‘liberal subsystem’ took shape in the West and
according to John Ikenberry was made up of five main features: co-binding security arrangements,
penetrated reciprocal hegemony, the integration of semi-sovereign and partial Great Powers,
economic openness, and civic identity.
The liberal international order combines military, economic and political (normative) sub-
orders, each operating according to a specific dynamic but coalescing to create a polymorphic and
energetic model of global order. Liberal hegemony has been the most vigorous international order of
the postwar era, transforming much of the world in its image.
After the Cold War these features were projected globally and at the same time assumed a more
radical form. Without a peer competitor, the expansive US-led liberal order adopted the
characteristics of liberal hegemony – the idea that US power needed indefinitely to maintain its
primacy and to ensure that no competitor could challenge its power and ideas. The distinction
between a liberal and non-liberal world was eroded, on the assumption that liberal internationalism,
and the domestic social order with which it was associated, would inevitably spread – either by
organic or forceful means.
After the Cold War its expansive ambitions sought to transform China by making it a
‘responsible stakeholder’ in the system, while Russia was encouraged to become a free-market
economy and a liberal democracy as part of an expanded Atlantic community. The elimination of
outsiders by converting them into insiders would have made the liberal order indistinguishable
from the international system in which it is embedded. However, democratic internationalism
inevitably ran into resistance, with the crisis arcing back to raise questions about the over-ambitious
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foreign policy agenda and its effect on domestic jobs and welfare. Populist movements identified
liberal internationalism as the cause of the problem. Outsider powers challenged this self-
identification and is one of the proximate causes of the Second Cold War.
The post-communist era to 2014 was characterised by the apparently limitless opportunities
opened by unipolarity. Liberal institutionalism gave way to liberal hegemony. In the US this was
embraced by both Democrats and Republicans and sought to expand and deepen the liberal world
order, based on free markets, democracy, human rights, and strong international institutions, under
benevolent American leadership. The absence of external constraints allowed American ambitions to
run unchecked. Stephen Walt argues that this gave rise to a revisionist foreign policy, including the
intensification of US security commitments in Europe, Asia, and the middle East, overthrowing
dictatorships, and using military force and economic coercion to force others to conform to US
values and preferences.
After 1989 liberal internationalism assumed more of the character of liberal hegemony. In the
absence of serious external competition, its primacy assumed a more radical character. Economic
liberalism was now presented in the format of globalisation, a term that had barely been used
earlier, giving rise to a boom in the literature on the subject. The military side had earlier focused on
containment but now also had more expansive ambitions. This took the form of a more extensive
series of so-called humanitarian interventions, and liberal interventionism in general sought to
reshape the world on the Western model. At the same time, the Atlantic power system expanded
into what was perceived as a security vacuum in the East, provoking a monumental security
dilemma with Russia.
The relatively modest postwar liberal multilateralism shifted to the more ambitious post-1989
‘postnational liberalism’, the pursuit of a liberal social purpose with authority beyond the nation
state. The ‘embedded liberalism’ of the earlier era became a less social democratic neoliberalism
accompanied by a more assertive emphasis on human rights, democracy, the rule of law and the free
movement of people.
The liberal international order became radicalised in at least five ways: the Hegelian, associated
with the discourse of the ‘end of history’; the Kantian, with the extreme emphasis on human rights;
the Hobbesian, with numerous ill-judged military interventions intended, among other things, to
advance democracy in the world; the Hayekian, which represented the triumph of neo-liberal
thinking and the disembedding of market from social relations; and the Marcusean cultural victory
of social liberalism accompanied by the societal fragmentation associated with identity politics.
Some of this radicalisation was the natural result of the absence of a viable competitor, allowing
the inherent character of the liberal international order to advance unchecked. However, some of it
was hubristic, exposing a dark exclusivity and intolerance of other social orders and traditional life
patterns.
As the only surviving system with genuinely universal aspirations, the liberal order assumed
more ambitious characteristics, including a radical version of globalisation, democracy promotion
and regime change. Graham Allison notes that during the Cold War the US ‘never promoted
liberalism abroad when it believed that doing so would pose a significant threat to its vital interests
at home’. In the unipolar era the teleology of the ‘end of history’ predominated. ‘An odd coupling’,
Allison writes, ‘of neoconservative crusaders on the right and liberal interventionists on the left’
convinced successive American presidents ‘to try to advance the spread of capitalism and liberal
democracy through the barrel of a gun’.
The prohibition on the use of force except with the sanction of the UN was weakened, and
Responsibility to Protect represented a move away from sovereign internationalism towards the
validation of humanitarian interventionism. The language of international law gave way to the idea
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of a ‘rules-based order’. Moscow was quick to point out the double standard involved, with the rules
open to interpretation and selective implementation.
The higher cause also entailed the disparagement of public opinion, especially when it did not
show the desired level of militancy when overthrowing regimes in Iraq or Libya, or even when
imposing sanctions against Russia.
Not only was the radicalised liberal international order less tolerant of states with different
cultural backgrounds, but it was also less forbearing when it came to alternative power centres. This
was especially the case if this was combined with resistance to the changes towards social liberalism
and neoliberal capitalism taking place within liberal order. If postwar liberalism was based on state
consent, the post-Cold War version asserted a universal agenda that was more ready to transcend
state sovereignty and cultural specificity.
Democratic internationalism promoted by post-Cold War liberal internationalism is based on
the expansionist logic of an order that essentially claims to have ready-made solutions to problems
of peace, governance, development and human community. This represents an unprecedented
cultural revolution that shapes international politics today.
(Source: Valdai Club)

THE OLYMPICS AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Nabil Fahmy (Former Foreign Minister of Egypt)
The 32nd Olympic games in Tokyo began one year after they were initially scheduled due to
the COVID-19 pandemic and the complications it posed. For the most part, the past tournaments
have convened regularly; the only exceptions were in 1916, 1940, and 1944 when they coincided with
the two World Wars. At other times, the Olympics was held under difficult political circumstances.
In the 1936 Berlin Olympics, for example, Hitler used the games as a platform to showcase the
superiority of the German-Aryan race. This greatly clashed with both ascendent notions of social
solidarity at the time and liberation movements struggling against European colonialism. In 1980,
the Moscow games took place while the Soviet-Afghan war was in full force, which the United
States boycotted in protest.
Pierre de Coubertin established the modern Olympics as an organization for international
sports competition, far removed from politics. Although Coubertin’s ambitions and dreams have
been largely realized, the Olympics has not always fully succeeded in isolating itself from politics. In
1933 for example, the German leadership was reluctant to attend the gold medal ceremony of Jesse
Owens, the famed African American runner, on account of his race, despite being treated with
respect and sportsmanship by his German competitor and silver medalist, Carl Ludwig “Luz” Long.
At times, individual action has transcended the political situation. In 1968, during the medal
ceremony, the two American runners Tommie Smith and John Carlos, raised their fists in a black-
power salute, protesting the abuse and racism rampant in their country. Over the years, regional
rivalries have also played out on the Olympic arena, particularly between the Arabs and Israelis.
It is naïve to expect sports and social events of this size and magnitude to remain isolated from
the conditions that impact countries, communities, peoples, and individuals at a specific place and
time. Politics, the economy, and social and security issues affect one another, and increasingly so in
the age of globalization. The Tokyo games highlighted how connected and inter-dependent the
world really is. The issues of our era are truly global in nature, so much so that any attempt to
separate states from each other, however large the barriers, is futile. The fact that the tournament
was postponed and then convened without spectators and crowds is evidence that contemporary
issues raised by the pandemic affect everyone. Solutions to these issues require collective and
comprehensive engagement, particularly in matters of the environment, health, natural resources,
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and desertification, which are not confined to borders and exercise no restraint in the scale of
damage they can cause.
There are other useful lessons to learn from the Tokyo games. As athletes must adhere to tenet
of honorable, friendly competition, so too must those same principles become embedded in the
relations of states with each other. Athletes agree to accept the outcome of competition, whether that
is a win or a loss. They agree to respect the game’s rules, such as staying inside set boundaries like
lanes in swimming or accepting penalties in soccer—these constitute the shared, agreed-upon rules
and rights of their sport. Similarly, the international system itself requires rules such as state
sovereignty in order to function properly. As of late, China’s ascendancy to the second largest
economy in the world at the expense of Japan was a test of that system. However, Beijing’s economic
competition with the United States is a fiercer, more contentious issue because it brings to the fore
concepts of American exceptionalism, which runs counter to multilateralism.
Every system is liable to adjustment. Even the International Olympic Committee, for example,
has added new sports to the roster of permitted games. So does the international governance system
renew its laws and rulers and has set forth individual human, social, and economic rights, despite its
establishment as a system that regulates relations between nation states. This system should be
further adjusted to achieve a fairer balance among countries—one example would be to modify how
membership is established within the U.N. Security Council—and between individual and social
rights to guarantee that stability is preserved. The striking imbalance in the distribution of COVID-
19 vaccines internationally, most especially in Africa, is an example of inequitable international
conduct at the detriment of earnest efforts to create a sound and stable international order.
With regards to the athletes present this year at the Olympics, there have been two issues. First,
the participation of Palestinian and Syrian athletes on the Refugee Olympic Team reminds us once
again of contested regional conflicts. They represent some of the largest and oldest refugee diasporas
globally. It is time for real efforts to address the plight of these two Arab populations. Second, more
and more athletes are afflicted by mental health issues. World gymnastics champion, Simone Biles,
withdrew from the Olympics to focus on her mental health. The Japanese tennis champion Naomi
Osaka withdrew from the French Open, citing depression.
When mental health issues translate on a larger, political scale, it demands our attention. The
upheavals in Eastern Europe of the 1990s, the Arab world in the 2010s, as well as anti-police brutality
protests in the United States last year, reflect a general societal unease about governance. The
psychological and mental wellbeing of citizens can be realized through looking after their interests and
striving for justice. This must not be ignored, no matter how powerful or rich societies become. One
pathway is efficient and rational political rule that is in tune with the people and their needs.
Athletes from the island of Bermuda and San Marino who clinched bronze and silver medals—
even as representatives of the smallest countries in the Olympics—embody a story of hope and
optimism. For individuals and small countries facing large ones, this victory shows that seemingly
unattainable dreams can be realized through determination and a disciplined work regime. One can
learn from East Asian communities, who have proved themselves in the fields of technology and
science, both in their home countries and the diaspora working in the major industrial countries. Their
success is a testament to their personal discipline and commitment. The remarkable economic success
and social integration of the small peninsula of Singapore is another case from which to learn.
The international community faces a long marathon of challenges and obstacles before it can
achieve in international relations what de Coubertin achieved for the Olympics. Yet, perhaps we can
emerge from this Olympic moment—held with protective measures, social distancing, and a few
spectators—with the deep-rooted conviction that many of the dangers our world is facing are shared
and that dealing with them requires work, cooperation, and sincere competition, all in the pursuit of
a balance between the interests of the individual, the nation, and the global community.
(Source: Cairo review of Global Affairs)
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Interviews
DR MAHA EL RABBAT
Special Envoy of WHO Director General on Covid-19
QUESTION: WHO is calling for a halt on Covid-19 vaccine boosters until at least the end
of September. Do you think this will help reduce the vaccination gap between rich and poor
countries?
ANSWER: That is the intention, yes. It represents yet another call by WHO for the global
solidarity needed to achieve vaccine equity and the coverage we need to get the world out of this
crisis as rapidly as possible.
The call for a moratorium was made in the context of high-income countries having
administered almost 100 doses for every 100 people and low-income countries only being able to
administer 1.5 doses for the same number due to lack of supply. We need an urgent reversal, from
the majority of vaccines going to high-income countries to the majority going to low-income
countries. Accordingly, WHO issued a call of global solidarity for a moratorium on boosters until at
least the end of September, to enable at least 10% of the population of every country to be
vaccinated.
We must focus on those who are most vulnerable – the most at risk of severe disease and death
– to get their first and second doses, and then we can move on to advance programmes as evidence
gets stronger and supply is assured.
QUESTION: Vaccine inequality leaves people in lowincome countries more vulnerable to
the virus and the world more exposed to new variants. What does WHO have to say about
it?
ANSWER: The smaller number of doses we administer the more exposed we are to the
possibilities of new variants. We are witnessing this with the new variants that have surfaced, and
how they are spreading with increased transmissibility. This represents a tragic moral catastrophe.
The accessibility to vaccines must be addressed immediately. If not, we will only have more and
more people at risk and this will allow the virus to circulate, threatening the gains we have made
against the pandemic. Let’s not forget, this trend also threatens countries with higher vaccination
coverage.
We can prevent this from happening only if countries that have the production capacity start
sharing doses with those that haven’t been able to manufacture the vaccine locally. This can be done
easily through the Covax distribution model.
The global failure to share doses is fueling the pandemic. As Dr Tedros mentioned, we’re
fueling a twotrack pandemic. Many countries still face an extremely dangerous situation, while
some of those with the highest vaccination rates are starting to talk about ending restrictions.
Inequitable vaccination is a threat to all nations. Unequal distribution of vaccines will only
allow the virus to spread, thus increasing odds of a variant emerging that could render existing
treatment options ineffective. We need to support countries with limited resources and vulnerable
groups. While some countries with resources are aiming to cover 70% or 80% of their population,
others can’t even vaccinate their health workforce or vulnerable groups.
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No one is safe until everyone is safe but vaccination alone is not the only open window for
ending the virus. It requires investment in public health measures and social and community
engagement, and in the responsiveness of the health system.
QUESTION: What are the hurdles in achieving vaccine equity targets. What challenges
are preventing the eradication of Covid-19?
ANSWER: The issue of vaccination can be divided into several parts. Apart from distribution, it
also involves funding, production, and intellectual property rights. WHO is pushing for transfer of
technology to make the vaccine more available and accessible. By doing this, we can easily ensure
that the production and distribution of vaccines is not under the control of richer countries. There
should definitely be intellectual property rights but the need of the hour must outweigh them
during global emergency.
Inconsistent adherence to health protocols in many countries has also emerged as a hurdle.
Preparedness, readiness, testing, tracing and diagnostics need to be strengthened globally. What we
need is a uniform response to the pandemic. Some countries, due to their fragile status, may not be
able to respond. That’s not just their weakness, it’s our collective weakness.
As to whether WHO is satisfied with the progress, I will tell you that much progress has been
made. Diagnostics and treatments to fight the virus in record time have been developed as result of
amazing collabouration, but we need to do more. We need to share the doses, resources,
technologies and data, and we need to be open and transparent about progress. We need to address
the issue of vaccine nationalism.
Other hurdles include: patent protection, emergence of new variants, increasing transmissibility
and decreasing protection. Vaccine hesitancy of people or countries that are unable to make proper
and timely diagnosis, countries that fail in following the proper public health measures are also
creating new challenges. Community fatigue and resistance are a major hurdle. Resources have also
been exhausted.
QUESTION: WHO says the virus has outpaced vaccine efforts. G7 has been criticised for
doing too little too late. What are your views in this area?
ANSWER: Clearly, the Covid-19 virus is moving faster than the vaccines. More people are
infected than those vaccinated. Disparities in jab access need to be reduced at a faster rate. It is a
dangerous trend and it does delay our ability to recover from this pandemic.
QUESTION: How successful has Covax been and what are the challenges?
ANSWER: The programme, despite its challenges, has moved as fast as possible. In five
months, it has delivered millions of doses across the world. It is a global scheme for equitable access
and distribution of vaccines. It is a mechanism that provides equity. But at the same time, the
distribution has not matched the pace WHO is expecting.
This is due to several reasons. There are supply disruptions, production related issues and
logistics. We need to speed this up to maintain vaccine equity but global supply constraints and
vaccine nationalism have provided additional challenges. Covax is short of its target of delivering
two billion doses by the end of the year but it does expect a big increase in supplies by early 2022. It
has raised nearly $10 billion, above its target for this year, and has begun receiving some surplus
doses from rich nations.
QUESTION: How can vaccines be delivered fairly and how can WHO ensure that?
ANSWER: WHO has been talking about vaccine equity since the doses were rolled out. We
cannot ensure equity without the support of countries and their leaders, and solidarity. Several
factors play into this situation. You must note that financing is important, waiving of intellectual
property rights is very important, increasing the production is very important, and the donation of
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extra doses is important. The pandemic preparedness and response treaty that many countries and
WHO are advocating addresses this issue very well.
WHO has mentioned that the world needs more than triple its production of vaccines just to
deliver the number of Covid-19 vaccines needed. We need to expand production sites globally. In
order to reduce dependence on technologies concentrated in high income countries, we need to
transfer the technology and ability to produce the vaccines. This will strengthen access to vaccines,
diagnostics, treatments and essential health needs. The pandemic is hitting low-income nations
harder as they struggle with access to vaccines, the rapid spread of new variants and heavily
burdened healthcare systems.
The director-general has already described the inequity in his remarks. The persistent global
inequity qualifies as “vaccine apartheid” and a “catastrophic moral failure” that has resulted in a
“two-track pandemic.” And as the director-general said: More than 10,000 people are dying every
day. These communities need vaccines, and they need them now, not next year.
To make the supplies fairer and more accessible, we need to ensure production and distribution
is localized.
QUESTION: Is the world prepared for the next pandemic?
ANSWER: This is a very tricky question. The slogan at the last World Health Assembly was:
how can we prepare for the next pandemic? WHO along with international organisations and with
the support of governments around the world is not only trying to end this epidemic, but also trying
in every way possible to prepare for future pandemics, that all of us know can happen anytime and
perhaps. The aim is to prepare a plan at global, regional, and national levels to be prepared for such
a situation in the future.
So, as much as there is global solidarity in finding out solutions to end this pandemic, we also
need to strengthen all actions needed to prepare for the upcoming health crises with solid measures
like readiness, preparedness, and response, that will not put the whole word into what has
happened with the Covid-19.
Several leaders have already accepted and acceded to the global treaty, and they will be
discussing it over the next few months to find out how to implement it globally. There is a global
consensus on the role of WHO, and it comes at a very important and opportune time. Because now
we know that no one is safe until everyone is safe, and that no one can do it alone, or on their own.
QUESTION: What have we learned from this pandemic?
ANSWER: We have learned a lot of lessons and one of them is that we were not prepared for
the arrival of this pandemic. There were many concerns in the past decades about a pandemic that
would happen at any time and how countries should invest in preparedness and possible solutions
to a major crisis. But when this pandemic struck, particularly in higher socio-economic nations, it
turned out that most of them were not prepared for a health crisis of this nature.
There hasn’t been proper investment in public health measures or in international health
regulations. There hasn’t been any investment to prepare countries, systems and communities for
pandemics. We haven’t invested in how governments should respond to such a health crisis.
We have learned that the health workforce is a treasure that every country should invest in. We
have learned that solidarity is the pathway to overcome pandemics, and that no one can do it alone.
We learned all of it the hard way.
But we now know that things can work and should work to be able to face outbreaks in the
future. Scientifically, we have learned so many things that could pave the pathway for more
measured actions and responses in the future. We have learned that when the global efforts are
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focused or when the entire world sets its mind to something, they can produce innovations in
research, vaccines, treatments, and diagnostics, etc. Countries came together and within one year,
they produced vaccines and diagnostics.
With all that we have managed to learn, we could do better in the future. This pandemic has
exposed inequities across the world like no other outbreak has ever done before. They have been
huge not just due to economic disruption but from lack of preparedness, fragility of health systems
and ability to recover as well. We need to rethink our future, and how we can build a secure health
system accessible to everyone.
QUESTION: Where are we on this pandemic’s timeline right now? Are we close to
recovery or far from the finish line?
ANSWER: We certainly have a long way to go. We can’t say far or near, but we can say
progress has been made, knowledge has been built, innovations have been produced and countries
are responding. But we are also besieged by inequalities that surfaced during this crisis. The manner
in which some countries are acting, politicising the situation will not help. Display of nationalism by
certain leaders will lead to new variants surfacing in several countries.
If we say 2.2 billion doses have been administered worldwide, less than 1% have been
administered in low-income countries. We are certainly not safe until each one of us is safe. So that
should tell you how far we are as a global community.
To defeat this pandemic, we need to exercise a package of actions that include vaccination and
implementation of public health measures and health protocols. Without all that, it won’t be possible
to defeat the virus or prevent it from spreading. It is everyone’s responsibility.
We also need to admit that countries, governments and people are fatigued. They are fatigued
with the inequities of vaccine distribution and with the inequities of health systems.
If you’re asking me, ‘are we near the end’, I will tell you, let us define what is needed to end the
pandemic, and then we would know how far we are from ending it. There are actions that are being
undertaken.
Heads of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank Group, WHO are taking initiatives
for financing efforts that will help end this pandemic. We know we need $50 billion investment in
the effort to fight this pandemic.
But we also know that there are four factors that together can be a dangerous combination. The
world is now dealing with the increased transmissibility of the new variants, increased social
mixing, and relaxing of public health and social measures. All those factors really affect the progress
of this outbreak and countries must continue to carefully calibrate how they apply and ease public
health measures.
We must understand there are numerous challenges the world faces. When it comes to
defeating Covid, we must understand the inconsistency in adherence in many countries to proven
public health measures needed to control the virus and to prevent the occurrence of new variants of
concern. We are also dealing with poor access to diagnostics, treatment, and oxygen. These issues
collectively jeopardise our chances of recovering. Last but not the least, when we speak about
vaccines, we’re leaving millions of vulnerable people worldwide exposed due to lack of doses.
QUESTION: How do you view the collective performance of the global community to deal
with this pandemic? Has the world done a good job, or do we need to do more?
ANSWER: So much progress has been made, and solidarity and leadership has been marked
and can be seen across the board. All international organisations including the G7, G20, WHO and
IMF are playing their part. Certain countries have remained focused on their own situation, and we
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hope they will expand their focus in the future. The pandemic is a common enemy and must be
fought by each one of us regardless of national identity or origin. It must be fought in unison with a
global approach. Tackling it at national levels will never be sufficient.
While it is normal to place your citizens on top of the priority list, continuing to place their
citizens first will prolong this pandemic and even pave the way for future pandemics. If you ask me,
yes, we need to do more. QUESTION: You spoke about a total package approach to pandemic
response that includes investment in healthcare, social programmes and frontline workers.
What if we’re diverting all our resources from that right now and a new pandemic
emerges?
ANSWER: The right investment in public health, health security, surveillance, data collection
and sharing, and frontline workers will prepare for any outbreak. This pandemic will force elected
leaders all over the world to reprioritise their spending. They will have to reconsider the health
budget because we have been shown how public health can overshadow every aspect of the
economy.

NOAM CHOMSKY
Prospects For Peace
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has recently put the hands of the doomsday clock to 100
seconds before midnight. Midnight means all-out war, probably nuclear holocaust. This is the
closest it has ever been. Do you agree with this dire assessment?
A fair assessment, unfortunately. The BAS analysts cited three major increasing threats: nuclear
war, environmental destruction, and what some have called an “infodemic,” the sharp decline in
rational discourse — the only hope for addressing the existential crises.
Every year that Trump was in office, the minute hand moved closer to midnight. Two years ago
the analysts abandoned minutes and turned to seconds. Trump steadily escalated all three threats.
It’s worth reflecting on how close the world came to an indescribable catastrophe last November.
Another 4 years of Trump’s race to the abyss might have had incalculable consequences. His
worshippers of course don’t see it this way, but, remarkably, the same is true of segments of the left.
In fact, liberal litanies of his abuses also largely skirt his major crimes. Worth consideration when we
recognize that he or some clone might soon regain the levers of power. Also worth consideration are
the warnings by thousands of scientists that we are approaching irreversible tipping points in
environmental destruction. We can read all about it in Aljazeera.
The US always portrays itself as the greatest force on the planet for peace, justice, human rights,
racial equality, etc. Polls tell us that most other nations actually regard the US as the greatest threat
to stability. What in your view is the truth here?
Even during the Obama years, international polls showed that world opinion regarded the US
as the greatest threat to world peace, no other country even close. Americans were protected from
the news, though one could learn about it from foreign media and dissident sources. Sometimes
illustrations are reported. Thus there has been some mention of the recent UN vote condemning the
savage Cuba sanctions, virtually a blockade: 180-2 (US-Israel). The NY Times dismissed it as a
chance for critics of the US to blow off steam. That’s quite normal. When there are reports of how the
world is out of step, the usual framework is curiosity about the psychic maladies that lead to such
pathological failure to recognize our nobility.
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There’s nothing new about that stance. It’s typical of imperial cultures. Even such an
outstanding figure as John Stuart Mill wondered about the world’s failure to comprehend that
Britain was an angelic power, sacrificing itself for the benefit of the world – at a moment when
Britain was carrying out some of its most horrifying crimes, as he knew very well.
Here’s a chicken-or-egg question: The US accuses both Russia and China of rapidly expanding
their military capabilities, claiming its own posturing and increase in weaponry is a response to its
hostile adversaries, Russia and China. Both Russia and China claim they are merely responding to
intimidation and military threats posed by the US What’s your view? Do Russia and China have
imperial ambitions or are they just trying to defend themselves against what they see as an
increasingly aggressive US military?
Some background facts may be useful. According to the major international monitor, SIPRI,
“The growth in total [military] spending in 2020 was largely influenced by expenditure patterns in
the United States and China. The USA increased its military spending for the third straight year to
reach $778 billion in 2020,” as compared with China’s increase to $252 billion (far less per capita of
course). In fourth place, below India, is Russia: $61.7 billion.
The US is alone in facing no credible security threats, apart from alleged threats at the borders
of adversaries, who are ringed with US nuclear-armed missiles in some of the 800 US military bases
around the world (China has one, Djibouti). There have been international efforts to prevent the
militarization of outer space, a major threat to survival. They have been initiated primarily by China
and Russia, blocked for many years by Washington.
The number of spy missions, nuclear-armed bomber flights, and war games near Russia’s
borders has vastly increased over the past year. Same with China. Is all of this just business-as-usual
geopolitical posturing? Or does it represent a dangerous escalation and a new ominous direction in
US strategic positioning? What is the justification for what Russia and China see as provocations and
aggressiveness, if not actual preparation for a war?
It’s extremely dangerous. Strategic planning has been redesigned to focus on war with China
and Russia. Provocative actions have been taken on their borders, already bristling with US
offensive weapons. China is violating international law in the South China Sea – though the US, the
only maritime power not to have ratified the UN Law of the Sea, is not in a strong position to object.
The right response to China’s violations is not a dangerous show of force but diplomacy and
negotiations, led by the regional states most directly involved. The major threat is over Taiwan.
Again thoughtful diplomacy, not provocative actions, can avert what could be disastrous.
In a democracy, at least in theory citizens have a say in all matters of public policy. Yet, in the
end none of the recent military campaigns and undeclared wars seem to achieve much popular
favour or support. What is and what should be the role of everyday citizens in determining the
foreign policy and military priorities of the country? Or are such matters better left to the “experts”?
According to the Constitution, Article I, Congress has the sole right to declare war. But that
provision has long been dispatched to the ashcan, along with other inconvenient provisions of the
document that we are taught to revere.
In a functioning democracy, citizens should have the primary role in affairs of the state. Not
here. And they should be informed citizens. Not here. World War I is a classic example. In 1916,
Wilson won on a platform of “peace without victory.” He then launched an impressive propaganda
campaign to inflame a pacifist population with bitter hatred of all things German, fortified with
fabrications about Hun atrocities concocted by the British “Ministry of Information”; Orwellism was
alive and well long before Orwell. It was highly successful. It wasn’t the first such occasion, nor the
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last. State propaganda remains highly effective, everywhere we turn, reinforced by the loyal media
and intellectual class.
A striking example, with considerable import, was just released a few hours before I sat down
to write: “more Americans think Iran possesses nuclear weapons than think Israel does. While Israel
has been known to possess nuclear weapons for decades (without officially acknowledging it) and
Iran is not known to have ever possessed any, the American public perception presumes a different
reality: 60.5%, including 70.6% of Republicans and 52.6% of Democrats, say Iran possesses nuclear
weapons — compared to 51.7% who say Israel does, including 51.7% of Republicans and 51.9% of
Democrats.”.
The achievements of unremitting propaganda can be quite stunning.
Again, the media help in a variety of ways. To take one highly relevant case, the NY Times
editors recently joined virtually the entire world, including Iran, in calling for a nuclear weapons-
free zone in the Middle East. That would end the alleged threat of Iranian nuclear weapons and
radically reduce severe and very dangerous regional tensions. One small matter was omitted in the
editors’ proposal: Israel, the one regional power with nuclear weapons, in fact, a formidable supply.
Also omitted was why this critically important proposal is not implemented: the US blocks it, to
ensure that Israel’s massive armaments will not be inspected. In fact, the US government refuses to
recognize officially that Israel has nuclear weapons, though it is not in doubt. If it were to do so, US
law might become applicable, arguably banning all aid to Israel.
Best for the rabble not to know that their lives are being threatened in order to protect Israel’s
malfeasance and US participation in it.
Related to that, the citizenry and most of Congress are kept in the dark with respect to special
missions, proxy funding, CIA operations, and swaths of unknown unknowns constituting psyops,
cyber ops, and regime change ops, all done in our name as US citizens. The funds to support this
sprawling “dark world” of sabotage and terror being inflicted on the rest of the planet, is also a
secret. Now there’s pervasive spying on US citizens right here at home. What place does any of this
have in “the land of the free”? Does this mean government of the people, by the people, for the
people is just a sham?
If we let it be a scam. In the opening passage of one of the first major modern works of political
science, a wise man – David Hume – pointed out that “power is in the hands of the governed.” If
they choose to exercise it. And if they go on to take the reins of government into their own hands in
a “cooperative commonwealth,” the aspiration of American workers and farmers in the late 19th
century. Crushed by state-business violence.

DR. ISHRAT HUSAIN

Renowned Economist and Former SAPM for Institutional Reforms &
Austerity
QUESTION: After decades of public service, you have chosen to retire. Please take us
through your journey.
Answer: I started my educational career as a scientist when I went to the University of British
Columbia in Vancouver at the age of 19 and did my masters in Chemistry. Then I came back to
Pakistan, although I was offered a job at Dow Chemical and a citizenship in 1961. I realized during
those two years that I was not really cut out for science as you have to spend a lot of time in the odd
hours in the labs; I was an extrovert and very much involved in extracurricular activities. I decided
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to compete in the CSS exams and I was 6th in order of merit in Pakistan. After I spent some time in
the field in Sindh and then in East Pakistan as a civil servant, I came back to Lahore in 1970 and had
the opportunity to work on the dissolution of One-Unit (West Pakistan) and formation of new
provinces. After the breakup of One-Unit, I was assigned to Sindh, where I was posted first in the
administration but soon I was transferred to planning & development.
Later I went to Williams College to study Economics and afterwards to Boston University for
my PhD. After finishing my PhD, I came back to Pakistan and applied and got selected for a junior
economist position at the World Bank after obtaining a three-year leave from the government. Soon I
became a resident representative in Nigeria, following which I was made a Division Chief, then
Chief Economist for Africa and later East Asia. Later, I became Director of Poverty and Social
Development Division. As I was doing interesting work at the World Bank, I resigned from the Civil
Service of Pakistan. Then came the Musharraf government in late 1999, they approached me and I
was offered the job of the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan. I didn't know any of the generals
at the time because I had been away from the country. In that role, I spent six fulfilling years, and let
me tell you I started in that role in the most challenging time because there were economic sanctions
on Pakistan after the 1998 nuclear tests, investor confidence was low as foreign deposits were frozen,
and our forex reserves were negative.
After I retired from the SBP, President Musharraf asked me that he wanted to reform the civil
service, so he formed the National Commission for Government Reforms (NCGR) and appointed me
its Chairman. I went from D.I. Khan all the way to Gwadar and studied the whole governance
structure of Pakistan for two years along with my eminent commission members. We produced a
report which was completed after President Musharraf’s exit, and I presented it to the new Prime
Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who said that they would take some time to review it considering they
were involved in crisis management at the time. So that was the report’s end and then nothing
happened. In 2009, I was appointed Dean and Director at IBA Karachi, which I helped to turn
around. Then I went to the leading Washington think-tank, Woodrow Wilson Center, where I wrote
this book, Governing the Ungovernable. My book – Governing the Ungovernable – sparked the
attention of Imran Khan, so when he became the Prime Minister he asked me to implement some of
those reforms. That’s how I was appointed the Advisor to this government. In short, this is the
background from my student days to the present.
QUESTION: Back in 1999, you wrote the book “Pakistan: The Economy of an Elitist
State”. The economy is still elitist in many ways. What are your thoughts?
ANSWER: I used to travel to many countries in the world when I was at the World Bank, and
at the back of my mind was always the thought as to why Pakistan was not making that kind of
progress it was making during the first 40 years of its history. Our economy used to be one of the
most advanced among developing countries, growing at 6 to 6.5 percent. And I found that unlike
many East Asian countries, there was a basic distortion in Pakistan. Markets are supposed to allocate
resources efficiently, and therefore you have higher rates of return on your investments and that
leads to higher growth. On the other hand, the state is very good at distributing the gains of the
growth, because markets only favour those who have assets, be it real estate, financial or educational
assets. Because the poor people do not have any assets, it is the state’s responsibility to distribute
some of the gains from taxation towards poverty reduction, social safety nets and investments in
education and health.
I discovered through my research that in Pakistan the markets had been rigged. The markets
had been taken over by a small group of elitist businessmen, industrialists as well as large farmers.
And the state was hijacked by the same elite groups. So you had a perversion of the roles of both the
market and the state. The state was not able to help the poor and there was a concentration of
income and wealth among the elite class, in which I included the civil servants, the military officials,
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the landlords, the industrialists, and the high-earning professionals. I documented that our
education system, the financial system and the judicial system, all three were contributing to this
phenomenon. And my agenda for reform was to fix these three sectors.
So the first opportunity which I got was at the SBP, where I said we had to reform the financial
sector, which was to privatize the nationalized commercial banks so that the link between political
masters, businessmen and the managers of those banks was severed. The economy had no allocation
from the banks in order to do the capital formation, while the exchequer was draining its money on
bearing the bank losses, whereas the beneficiaries were the people whom I called the willful
defaulters. The first thing I did was to convince President Musharraf and the cabinet that we had to
privatize the banks. From 80 percent of assets in the hands of the public sector, with the grace of
Allah we were able to do reduce that number to 20 percent. There are a lot of difficulties now with
the private sector banks because they are not doing what I thought was their role, which is to
provide private sector credit to the small and medium businesses, to the small farmers, to low-cost
housing and to the consumers. But at least they are making hundred billion rupees as tax payments
to the government and there is efficiency and the non-performing loans have gone down.
The other thing which I am really proud of is to strengthen the central bank of Pakistan. When I
came in, I never imagined that this would be the condition of the central bank, either technologically
or human resource-wise or in terms of working environment. I had a six-year strategic plan, and you
can see what it has accomplished. There used to be only one PhD economist in 1999 – by the time, I
left there were 15 or 16 PhDs, and today there are 29 PhDs, all very well trained. Everything is now
paper-less, all the data warehouses and all the banking solutions are so robust that they have their
tentacles across all the banking system. The banks could not go in for Internet banking or mobile
banking or real-time settlement system unless we had laid the infrastructure.
The other initiative I took was to introduce Islamic banking. I had realized that there were a lot
of people who did not take part in commercial banking because of their faith, hence their savings
were not coming into the banking system as deposits nor were these people borrowing. So I decided
with the help of my colleagues that we should have a parallel banking system where Islamic
banking would co-exist with conventional banking. Today, the fastest growing segment is Islamic
banking. Another measure I am proud of is to bring in the microfinance sector under the central
bank ambit. Microfinance regulations and ordinances were issued for microfinance banks, which
was contrary to the advice I got from my mentor Prof. Muhammad Yunus of Bangladesh, who
cautioned against bringing microfinance under the central bank. But today, all the central banks are
moving in that direction because they have realized that small entrepreneurs, small borrowers and
small depositors have to be protected.
QUESTION: When you joined the SBP, non-banking finance companies were under the
central bank supervision. But during your time, NBFCs were transferred to the SECP’s
ambit. In retrospect, how do you see that decision, considering that SME lending has
remained below par?
ANSWER: The reason why the SBP transferred NBFCs’ supervision to SECP is very simple.
About 95 percent of financial assets were in the banking system and the rest in the non-banking
system at the time. We used to have two supervision departments at the SBP – one for banking and
the other for non-banking. As a result, we were not able to allocate sufficient supervisory resources
to look at our commercial banks. For 5 percent of financial assets that belonged to non-banking
system, we had to make 50 percent of our human resources available. That was not the right kind of
thing to do for a central bank. So I said SECP was the other regulatory agency that should take
NBFCs over.
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Now, SMEs were never given loans even by NBFCs at that time. During our time, we reached
17 percent of the total loans for the SMEs from the banking system. It is a pity that it has now gone
down to 7 percent. We removed the mandatory ceilings on agriculture credit and the private banks,
which had no presence in rural areas, also started lending money. As a result, agriculture credit
went up from Rs50 billion to Rs250 billion, and when I left it was over Rs600 billion. We also
promoted consumer financing to create demand and economies of scale for production of cars,
durables and other goods in the country. Those are the kinds of things I had hoped that they would
continue. The advance-deposit ratio at the time was around 70-75 percent, which has sharply gone
down now to 45-50 percent. There was no lending to the government, which was not incurring high
fiscal deficits at the time. During the two times that we borrowed from the IMF, we completed all
the conditionalities and returned two tranches because we did not need them. We did what every
country should do is try to bring about fundamental structural changes. So I am disappointed that at
this time, the banks are not doing what they ought to be doing – they are just making money
available to the treasury bills and PIBs, which is not their only job.
QUESTION: The central bank seems to have deteriorated a little after you left. Some of
your successors did not complete their tenure, and a few did not have the requisite
experience. What are your thoughts?
ANSWER: There has been some good leadership as well between now and the time I left. The
institution was very strong, but leadership does matter. While the institution can do 80 percent, 20
percent depends on what the leader can do. Since the new governor has come in, the same people
who were working in the SBP have turned around and they are doing the kind of things that nobody
expected the central bank to do. They are in the leading edge so far as technology is concerned – just
look at initiatives like Micropayment gateway, Roshan Digital Account, and facilitation for startups.
The governor can provide the leadership, but it is the institutional strength that enables him to take
the new measures. After being away for 15 years, I feel gratified that the SBP still enjoys the best
reputation among all the public sector institutions.
QUESTION: What is your message for the current SBP team on the need to raise SME
lending?
ANSWER: That is a very pertinent question. My take is that we change the prudential
regulations about SMEs. The banks want collaterals and securities – but you cannot expect SMEs to
provide those kind of assurances. So the prudential regulation that we changed in 2003 or 2004
specifically noted that banks would give loans to the SMEs on the basis of cash flows rather than on
collateral or security. Now the technology has gone so far advanced that you can have your loan
officer monitor input and output prices to assess an SME’s cash flows and restructure the repayment
streams accordingly if business conditions change. Doing so will require a lot of training and
investment on human resources. The problem is that as long as you can give a loan to the
government in one stroke of pen without consuming any capital or taking any risk and you get a
very high return, you would barely spend time and energy on giving SME loans to thousands of
people. That, I think, is the issue. We have to build incentives for the banks to go for the SME
lending. Unless we meet the requirements of the SMEs, the economy will never be able to take off on
a sustained basis.
QUESTION: Pivoting to public sector reforms, on which you have done considerable
amount of work, why is it that in the three years that you have been directly spearheading
the government’s reform portfolio, you have not been able to implement some of those
reforms?
ANSWER: People ask me why I was able to turn around both the SBP as well as the IBA, both
public sector institutions, and why have I not been able to do this for the government of Pakistan.
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Remember, there are four million people working in the government of Pakistan, as compared to a
few thousand which were working at the SBP and a few hundred that were working at the IBA.
Secondly, I was the chief executive of both those institutions, where I had the power and authority to
formulate the strategy and execute it as well, with the help of my team and other stakeholders. Both
as the Chairman of the NCGR and now as Advisor to the PM, I am only providing the technical
expertise and proposals in the form of reforms. The implementation of reforms is the responsibility
of line ministries. So if there is a reform for performance management system, where the present
system is totally rotten, it is the Establishment Division which has to change the whole guidelines
and prescribe new procedures. I cannot do it, because I do not have those powers.
That being said, there has been some progress as well. Firstly, we have been very successful as
far as Public Finance is concerned, as we approved the Public Finance Management law for the first
time in Pakistan’s history where the powers of the Ministry of Finance have been delegated to line
ministries. How can you reconcile to the idea that a 22-grade, Secretary-level officer has to rely on
the judgments and the dictates of a section officer at the Ministry of Finance? Right now what we
have done, you just give the Secretary a one-line budget, he or she does not have to go to the
Ministry of Finance for spending approval, as they can choose however they want to allocate the
resources for the best use and value of money. That reform itself will enable the Secretary to fulfill
his or her performance targets. That has been done. Secondly, the whole Financial Advisor
organisation has been abolished. Like the corporate sector, we have introduced a Chief Finance
Officer in each ministry, who reports to the Secretary of the ministry and manages the finances.
The third area where I have received most support from the PM and the successive finance
ministers was on the issue of State-owned Enterprises (SOEs). There are ten SOEs that are causing 89
percent of the annual cumulative losses to the exchequer. So we prepared a restructuring plan for
PIA, Pakistan Railways, Pakistan Steel Mills, and energy-sector DISCOs. Those plans have been
approved by the cabinet, but now it is up to the Aviation Ministry, Railway Ministry, Industry
Ministry and Energy Ministry to implement those reforms. That is where the disconnect is, although
the reform-minded PM himself takes lot of personal interest. It is the ministries that have to do it.
Fourthly, thanks to the PM’s support, all the appointments of CEOs and MDs of public sector
companies, statutory corporations and bodies are now done in a transparent and competitive basis.
With the grace of God, we have been to recruit 62 top-notch Pakistanis from both within the country
and outside the country to these positions. This process has encouraged so many qualified expats,
who lacked political connections, to apply for a lot of these positions.
A disheartening aspect has been the fact that provinces did not take part in the task forces which
we have established on reforms. They have maintained that provinces are quite autonomous post-18th
Amendment and therefore they will not follow the federal government’s guidance on this subject. The
reality is that the interactions of a common citizen for health, education, drinking water, sanitation,
garbage disposal, public transport, etc., all take place at the local level, which the provincial
governments are responsible for. Looking from my perspective, where civil service reforms and
institutional reforms were intended to make the delivery of basic services available to a common
citizen who doesn't have the money or the connections, I am frustrated because those reforms have not
taken place. We wanted a security of tenure for bureaucrats so that if you appoint a Secretary or a
Head of department, they should continue there for a certain period of time without being disturbed
unless they have committed act(s) of corruption or other misconduct(s). But now you have too many
frequent transfers in the provincial governments and there is no accountability at all.
QUESTION: Tell us a bit about education reforms when you were at the IBA.
ANSWER: If you ask me one thing that I am really quite exulted about is the opportunity I got
at one of the premier institutions of Pakistan, the IBA. I am proud that I was able to bring in the
talented and bright children from the poor families in the backward areas of Pakistan to get quality
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education at the IBA. And this was through the National Talent Hunt Program, and through the
Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Talent Hunt Programs. Under these programs,
students who were doing their Intermediate in backward areas were brought to the IBA at our own
expenses, they lived in our hostels, and during the summers we gave them extra classes in order for
them to come up to the level for our entrance exam. They were taught English, Computer Sciences
and Mathematics, as well as trained on communication. Those who were selected from this pool
received no concession to compete in our entrance exams. Once selected, we underwrote all their
expenses, including their boarding, lodging and even pocket-money for next four years. We have
been able to graduate hundreds of students under these programs, and these programs are still
going on.
Social mobility in this country can only take place if you equip people from the backward areas
and the poor families with those tools, and one of the best tools is higher education and quality
education. Many of these students are now working at top multinationals or getting higher
education abroad, and that is where lives of their own families have changed. This also creates a
demonstration effect for others to work hard. That is an accomplishment for which I am very happy.
And I am very grateful for the private sector contribution towards funding these programs. If
Pakistan has to get out of the inequality syndrome, we need to pay more attention to human capital
development. The IBA still maintains one of the highest standards of entrance examination,
curriculum, and we never compromised on that.
What is the principle of education reforms? Do not discriminate on the basis of financial
strength. Every third student in the IBA gets some kind of scholarship or financial aid. It’s a need-
blind policy. We charge financially well-off students market fees, which we use to cross-subsidize
student aid. Because we were able to charge higher tuition fees, we were able to offer foreign-trained
PhD faculty salaries of 4 to 5 lac rupees. In short, we built a financial model that was sustainable and
robust, which helped attract quality students and gave them the best teachers. When I joined there
were only 19 PhDs at the IBA, and most of them were from Pakistan. When I left, there were 72
PhDs, mostly from the best universities in the world. Now I am told that the number of PhDs in the
IBA faculty has exceeded 90.
During my time, the physical infrastructure at the IBA had to be expanded to meet the needs of
growing number of students, faculty and staff. I was able to collect almost $50 million from the
private sector and the philanthropists. This allowed us to expand from 6 buildings to 30 buildings, to
build sports complex, add more hostels, have state of the art computer labs and libraries, as well as
other facilities that are possessed by a decent university. Because I was known to the private sector,
they knew that I would be using their money to the best advantage of the institution. They were
very generous and I was able to undertake a complete transformation of the IBA. This has also
helped us to attract very good faculty members, which in turn leads us to have quality students.
About 95 percent of students are offered jobs even before they have graduated. The head-hunters
visit the campus, interview students and make the offers. That is where quality education can make
a transformation of the society – but unfortunately it is limited to very few institutions in Pakistan.
QUESTION: You are leaving after being associated with the economy in one capacity or
the other. Where do you see things headed for Pakistan?
ANSWER: It’s a complex issue, but I am an eternal optimist. I am very hopeful about the
future of this country. Let me some share some thoughts with you. Here is a Prime Minister who is
really sincere in his beliefs and in his doings that the vision of Pakistan should be to liberalize the
energies of the private individuals, businesses and farmers, without too much hindrances from the
governments, to create wealth, and part of this wealth should come to the government as tax
revenues to help poor and backward segments of the population. This is a model of inclusive
growth, which China and East Asian countries have followed very successfully.
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The trick is that we have a constituency politics and the priorities of an elected MPA or MNA are
that he or she should be re-elected at the next election. Now what are the contributory factors to his or
her election? He or she should be able to spend funds for development projects in the constituency,
besides they must have the power to choose the SHO and the Tehseeldar to get their work done. This
elitist model is the bargaining model where the people who have no connections find the
intermediaries in the politicians, who then mediate on the people’s behalf and get the basic services
rendered to their areas. In the bargain, voters promise that at the time of the elections, they would vote
for the politically-connected people. So, the politicians’ priorities are not the general well-being of the
people of Pakistan, but the well-being of their constituents. This creates a conflict between the
priorities of the elected representatives because of constituency compulsions and the vision of a leader
who is not thinking in a five-year election-cycle but who is thinking in the long term.
In short, there is no congruence between electoral cycle and economic development cycle. What
you need is continuity, predictability and consistency in economic policies. But unfortunately in
Pakistan, when there is a change in the government, we often have complete reversal of even some
of the good policies. And this creates an unpredictability.
QUESTION: Do you think Pakistan should change the system from a parliamentary
system to a presidential system?
ANSWER: No, you can modify this system. For instance, in Egypt, there is a constitutional
arrangement where 50 percent of the seats are constituency contested, and the rest of the seats are
given in proportional representation to the votes which are received by the political parties. In
Egypt, this system helped bring in more than 100 PhDs in various subjects who got elected in the
proportional representation system to the assembly. They have thus become resources for running
the line ministries. And when they run a ministry, they are looking at the larger picture, they are
over and above constituency politics, and they bring subject matter knowledge.
If I look at Pakistan’s present government, if the Prime Minister is given the power to nominate
50 percent of the MNAs on the basis of proportional representation, he will bring in these
individuals who are competent in their fields but who don’t have their own constituencies. Already,
the PM has appointed a number of special advisors/ assistants who are subject matter experts,
because the business of the government is getting more complex. The other message that I have is
that we must have a very strong local government system. The more powers are delegated to the
local governments and the more financial resources are allocated to them, the better the economic
outcomes and delivery of public goods and services to the common citizens.
QUESTION: Lastly, what are your plans for the future?
ANSWER: Well, I want to be a little bit more flexible, as the current assignment is a little bit of
a straitjacket for me, as the Prime Minister is a tough boss. He himself works 24/7 and does not like
if his Cabinet members go on leave for extended periods. I have my grandchildren scattered in
various continents and they always complain that I don’t spend much time with them. So, besides
reading, writing, and going on some boards, I would have more flexibility to spend some time with
them. Even before I joined this government, I was very fortunate that I used to be invited at
international conferences and forums. I would continue to do that and also have interactions with
the local media, think tanks and educational institutions.

(Source: Business Recorder)

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Islamic Studies
ISLAMOPHOBIA AND WESTERN WORLD
Ayesha Shukhat (NDU, Islamabad)
“How Islamophobia developed in west and how it built track towards influencing life of
common man?”
In this research paper we are going to conduct a research on Islamophobia, its causes, its
impact. First aim is to define and explain phobia. Define and explain Islamophobia. Its main causes.
How attacks of 9/11 influenced the lives of Muslims. Caricatures of Holy Prophet displayed in a
school of France and magazine “Charlie Hebdo”. Consequences of Islamophobia are the main topics.
In this paper I’ve brightened the aspects leading to Islamophobia, change of policies for Muslims in
France.
WHAT IS PHOBIA?
A Phobia is an extreme fear of something. It may be an anxiety disorder in which fear of
something is expressed. There are many factors that trigger a phobia, these factors may be
environmental or genetic. But here we are talking about worldly phobia.
WHAT WE CALL, “ISLAMOPHOBIA”
There is a great debate on Islamophobia. If we talk about Islamophobia; it is a very considerable
phobia or fear for the west. Islamophobia according to western people is hatred and prejudice
against Muslims. Islamophobia is a phrase used to describe baseless malice and agitation or hatred
towards Islam, Muslims, and Islamic culture. It also throws light on discrimination that is faced by
Muslims. Muslims face violence on daily bases. Circadian, they are victimized. Examples may vary
from region to region, the way Muslims are treated and how arduous it is for them to face all the
pessimism.
Commonplace, Muslims are attacked, their properties are attacked, their rights are violated, and
they face threats of violence. Muslims are blackmailed. Muslims face biased attitude at schools,
workplace and they also go through religion bigotry. Despite of all the endowment of Muslims, they
are denounced and stigmatized. In a few recent years the terminology of Islamophobia gained vast
popularity in west. Muslim minorities colonizing Europe face many issues on daily basis. This term
spread widely in European countries in 2007. It was the aftershock of economic crisis of 2007. They
terrorists Muslims (Muslim extremists) which proved to be fuel to the fire.
Muslim minorities in Europe have always been manifested in a wrong order. It is portrayed that
Muslims want to isolate themselves. Due to this wrong image of Muslims that is being portrayed, they
are not given indistinguishable rights at work places, school and other business sites.
About 20 million Muslims live in Europe. These Muslims are viewed as a threat to European
culture and their ways of spending life. The word Islamophobia has become a part of political
discourse due is all because of researches and citations of British and western think tanks. This term
gains a number of critics. Western concept of Islam is only one-way street. Western people and
leaders criticize Islamic values openly but they pay no consideration to frame of mind of Muslims.
ATTACKS OF 9/11
The 9/11 arsonist attacks exceptionally altered slant of public towards Muslims. Thenceforth,
arsonist acts, the attacks by deadly jihadists in London, Paris, Brussels, and Barcelona have escalated
trepidation. Aftermath of all these attacks by Muslim extremists, Muslims are regarded as terrorists
by Europeans and they view Islam as a threat. The attack of 9/11 on twin tower was considered as
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an attack by Muslims, since then, Muslims are considered to bean ultimatum. Many changes were
felt following these attacks. These terrible attacks left a horrific effect on Muslims. Muslims were
considered as pessimists. President of the time Mr. George Bush launched “war on terror” which
affected Muslim world badly. Muslims were the prey of this war. Countries like Pakistan, Iraq,
Afghanistan became the pivot of American forces. Sadly, Afghanistan and Iraq also have masses of
American troops.
9/11 made Islamophobia more acceptable. Muslims are considered as terrorists and attacks of
9/11 were scrutinized to be done by Muslim extremists such as Al-Qaeda.
ISLAMOPHOBIA AND FRANCE
Recently, a French school teacher Samuel Paty displayed the lampoons of our Holy Prophet
(PBUH) upon which a Muslim student Abdullah. He waited for his teacher to come out of his home
and he shot him down with an air gun. Abdullah was living there with status of a refugee. After that
French policies started to slap down on Muslims. French President said:
“Islam in French needs Enlightenment.”
Further, he mentioned that we need to fight Islamist separatism.
He took measures and implemented new policies on Muslims which includes financing of
mosques on French territory. Ban can be imposed on anyone visiting mosque.
On the other hand, Turkey which is also a western a country stood in front of France and
retorted aggressively following the caricatures.
This is not the first time, such thing has also happened in France before in 2015. When a French
magazine “Charlie Hebdo” published the mimics of our Holy Prophet (PBUH). Muslim extremists
invaded the offices of Charlie Hebdo and killed 12 persons and injured 11. According to a report the
killers were two Muslim brothers belonging to extremist group Al-Qaeda.
Charlie Hebdo, a publication that has always quoted controversy with satirical attacks on
political and non-secular leaders. It published cartoons of Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) in 2012,
following which France temporarily closed embassies and schools amid fears of reprisals. Its offices
had been bombed in November 2011 after publishing a caricature of Muhammad on its cover.
CONSEQUENCES OF ISLAMOPHOBIA
Islam is criticized by infidels in very tough words throughout the world. Muslims are held
responsible for incendiary activities because of hatred and prejudices towards Islam. New policies are
being implemented on Muslims. French policies started to slap down on Muslims. Muslims are most
exposed to hate speech, racism, discrimination, bigotry at work place, educational institutes and
mosques are ambushed by fascists. In India Muslims are being killed because they eat meat of cows
and cow is a sanctified animal for Hindus. They are whipped and canned when they go to mosques.
Kashmir has become a detention center as was Germany during the reign of Hitler for Jews.
Industry of Islamophobia is on rise. In the US, about one-half of nationally representative
samples of Mormons, Protestants, Catholics, Muslims, and Jews agree that in general, most
Americans are prejudiced toward Muslim Americans. Specifically, 66% of Jewish Americans and
60% of Muslim Americans say that Americans in general are prejudiced toward Muslim Americans.
Muslims(48%) have been through religious discrimination. It is always felt that Muslims will
overtake the society and they will spread violence, hatred and bigotry in society. It is in people’s
perception that Muslim’s will create problems. Well, it is not their fault up to major extent. It is due
to extremist groups like Al-Qaeda which conveys terror in hearts of people. Another aspect is the
role of the Media which tries to aggrandize every issue for commercial gain. The recent acts of
certain so-called Muslim terrorists in America and other parts of the world added much more fuel to
the fire which was already burning and the image of bad or evil which was already used by certain
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Western governments about Muslims got a stamp of approval for many people who are not aware
of the true aspects of Islam.
ISLAMOPHOBIA, A FORM OF RACISM
Most scholars agree that Islamophobia is a form of racism. It is anti-Muslim racism. This type of
racism stirs up hatred and prejudices on religious beliefs and ethnic backgrounds. Islam is baselessly
labeled as treacherous to western civilization. They feel inferior in front of Islamic values. And they
are always trying to prove Islam inferior and themselves, superior.
Islamophobia is illustrated as manifestation of cultural racism. Many people go through
discrimination because they are perceived as Muslims. Western identities are created within white
racialists.15 March, a gunman walked into the Al Noor mosque in Christchurch, New Zealand and
opened fire. During the course of his killing spree there, and at the Linwood Islamic Centre, 51
people were slaughtered in their place of worship for no other reason than their Murderer wanted to
decide their faith by himself. the racists in Northern Ireland who left a pig’s head on the door of the
mosque . If this is not racism, then what it is? The motorists demanding £1,000 more to insure their
car if their name is Muhammad, then what it is, called religious racism. Then how is it possible for
native Muslims of those countries to spend a life of tranquillity in those countries, where there not
even minor rights of Muslims are protected. Where Muslims face troubles to go to their places of
worships. This is not what they call freedom of speech. There is wide variability between freedom of
speech and religious racism.
HOW TO ERADICATE ISLAMOPHOBIA?
It should be the first duty of teachers to exterminate such convictions from intellects of the
young students and children. Islam is a peace loving religion. Muslims can not harm even an animal
without any rationale. Media must also alter the way they present Muslims. Media must show
things that are free from any kind of hatred towards religion. Politicians must also acknowledge
ways to prevent Islamophobia. It would aid in preventing crimes. Differences in religious beliefs are
basis of prejudices. These divergences take place in intellects of young children.
CONCLUSION
Islamophobia is rooted in minds of western people and other non-Muslims. Islamophobia is a
slang which deteriorates the tranquillity of human mind. Islamophobia is unbearable for Muslims
and acts related to it. Such as exhibiting caricatures and lampoons of Holy Prophet Muhammad and
then calling it freedom of speech. People are visually impaired to metamorphose among freedom of
speech and hate speech. Hate speech, then escorts to ferocity. In retaliation of hate speech Muslim
extremists pursuit anarchism. This anarchism ushers to Islamophobia and hence the cycle continues.
Western states are chauvinists. Chauvinism has deeply rooted in intellect of people. Despicable
oratory bestows people with license to treat Muslims preferentially. Muslims, in many parts of the
world are conventionalized as arsonists and terrorists. They consider immigrants as foreign in their
lands. Even the natives of those lands are prejudiced as foreigners. Muslim students and teachers are
bullied. Together, we can flotsam bigotry and preconception and make world which is full of respect
for religions.
(Source: Modern Diplomacy)

MUSLIMS’ CONTRIBUTIONS TO SCIENTIFIC THINKING

Barrister Zafarullah Khan (Former federal law minister)
Islam contributed enormously to humanity through advancements in all fields of learning. In
addition to original intellectual breakthroughs, Islamic scholars preserved most of the important
scientific and philosophical texts of ancient Greece in Arabic translations. Within the framework of
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Greek knowledge, Muslims intellectuals made several important contributions that continued into
the Roman Era. The translation of most works by Muslims into Latin during the 12th and 13th
centuries played a pivotal role in the awakening of the European Renaissance. The 12th century
witnessed an intensified transfer of Muslim learning into the West through translations of Muslim
works, which helped Europe seize the initiative from Islam, when the conditions deteriorated in the
Islamic world. According to American historian and philosopher, Will Durant (1993):
‘For five centuries, from 700 to 1200, Islam led the world in power, order and extent of
government, in refinement of manners, scholarship and philosophy’.
The contributions of Islam and Muslims on human civilization can be divided into the two
areas of moral, (discussed in last article) and intellectual impact (being discussed now). Islam
propagated a scientific method of thinking. Scientific thinking means the application of a disciplined
manner of inquiry, which is based on objective and systematic methods; it is used to facilitate and
generate new bodies of knowledge. It is an organized method of inquiry that is inspired by reflection
and engagement in careful observation of the nature. Divine wisdom guides the Quranic inspiration
for knowledge inquiry. The holy Quran initiated the Islamic mission by invitation for reconstruction
of the paradigm as follows: Read by the name of your Lord who created. (Quran 96:1)
This very revelation declares that the study of the entire created world is a basic method to
appreciate the Creator. This new Islamic approach towards nature provided Muslims the innovative
power of creative insights in the exploration of nature. The Quran not only inspires human intellect
to gain deep insights in natural phenomena, it also provides various thinking styles and different
modes of reasoning. From the point of view of the Quran, nature is a clear sign of God (Ayah) that
presents the systematic order created by Allah:
Behold! in the creation of the heavens and the earth; in the alternation of the night and the day;
in the sailing of the ships through the ocean for the profit of mankind; in the rain which Allah sends
down from the skies, and the life which He gives therewith to an earth that is dead; in the beasts of
all kinds that He scatters through the earth; in the change of the winds, and the clouds which shown
between the sky and the earth; all these are indeed Signs for people of thought. (Quran 2:164)
 ‘Can the blind be held equal to the seeing? Will ye then consider not?’ (Quran 6:50)
 Do you not understand? (Quran 2:44)
 Do they not look at the Camel how it is made? And at the Sky how it is raised up? And at the
Mountains how they are fixed firm? And at the Earth how it is spread out? (Quran 88:17-20)
The curiosity created by the Quran forced the early Muslim intellectuals to practice creative
thinking in its true sense. This practice transpired in the original works they produced and the
translation and preservation of the ancient scientific heritage of Greek, Indian and Persian
civilizations. Their endeavors resulted in two significant creative processes that contributed
immensely to the future developments of mankind: the invention of advanced technologies and the
nurturing of creative and analytical minds.
The Muslims welcomed, appreciated and assimilated the positive and creative contributions of
all nations, then critically examined and integrated these ideas into the framework of the Islamic
worldview. Phillip Hitti notes:
‘The Islamic ability to reconcile monotheism and science proofs to be a first time in human
thought that theology, philosophy, and science were finally harmonized in a unified whole. Thus,
their contribution was one of the first magnitude, considering its effect upon scientific and
philosophic thought and upon the theology of later times. One of the reasons for such development
of science is probably due to God’s commandments to explore the laws of nature’.
Before the advent of Islam, people worshipped objects of nature and this was called Shirk
(associating others with God). Islam urged its followers not to worship objects of nature, but rather
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to study it. This led to scientific thinking and processes. Before Islam, there was no formal concept of
experimentation and observation. The universe was an object of worship for man, rather than an
object of investigation. It was this great scientific contribution of Islam that completely changed the
history of mankind on earth. To quote Encyclopedia Britannica in this context:
‘A widespread phenomenon in religions is the identification of natural forces and objects as
divinities. It is convenient to classify them as celestial, atmospheric and earthly. This classification
itself is explicitly recognized in Indo-Aryan religion: Surya, the sun god, is celestial; Indra,
associated with storms, rain and battles, is atmospheric; and Agni, the fire god, operates primarily at
the earthly level’.
Islam gave the scientific method to the world. Before Islam, people believed in ancient
traditional knowledge without subjecting it to experimentation. The renowned British thinker and
philosopher, Bertrand Russell remarked that the Greeks were against experimentation and
observation. In his book The Impact of Sciences on Society Russell (1976) says:
‘To modern educated people, it seems obvious that matters of fact are to be ascertained by
observation, not by consulting ancient authorities. But this is an entirely modern conception, which
hardly existed before the seventeenth century. Aristotle maintained that women had fewer teeth
than men; although he was twice married, it never occurred to him to verify this statement by
examining his wives’ mouths’.
Social anthropologist Robert Briffault goes to the extent of declaring that modern science was
the contribution of the Muslims. Scientific research started with the Greeks, but it were the Muslim
Arabs who discovered the scientific method the method of experimentation, observation and
measurement. This laid the basis for modern science in Europe. According to Briffault:
‘The debt of our science to that of the Arabs does not consist in startling discoveries of
revolutionary theories; science owes a great deal more to Arab culture, it owes its existence. The
ancient world was, as we know, pre-scientific. The Astronomy and Mathematics of the Greeks were a
foreign importation never thoroughly acclimatized in Greek culture. The Greeks systematized,
generalized and theorized, but the patient ways of investigation, the accumulation of positive
knowledge, the minute method of science, detailed and prolonged observation and experimental
inquiry were altogether alien to the Greek temperament. Only in Hellenistic Alexandria was an
approach to scientific work conducted in the ancient classical world. What we call science arose in
Europe as a result of a new spirit of inquiry, of new methods of investigation, of the method of
experiment, observation, and measurement, of the development of Mathematics in a form unknown to
the Greeks. That spirit and those methods were introduced into the European world by the Arabs’.
The Quran places great emphasis on observation and reflection upon all things created in the
universe; this is what we today call Science. The methodological practice brings us closer to God.
The history of Islam is witness to the fact that Muslims made tremendous progress in scientific
knowledge in the beginning. Bertrand Russell explicitly expresses that the Muslims promoted
scientific knowledge and education and led the world in science when Europe was still in the Dark
Ages. A brilliant Islamic civilization, at that time, flourished from India to Spain. He says:
‘Our use of the phrase ‘The Dark Ages’ to cover the period from 600 to 1000 marks our undue
concentration on Western Europe. In China, this period includes the time of the Tang Dynasty, the
greatest age of Chinese poetry and in many other ways a most remarkable epoch. From India to
Spain the brilliant civilization of Islam flourished. What was lost to Christendom at this time was not
lost to civilization, but quite the contrary’.
(Source: Daily Times)
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Kashmir
INDIA’S FAILED ASSUMPTIONS
Zahid Hafeez Chaudhri (Former spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Pakistan)
August 5, 2021 marks the completion of two years since India’s illegal and unilateral actions in
Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), taken as part of the RSS-BJP agenda to
perpetuate India’s illegal occupation of the disputed territory.
Ever since, India has maintained an unprecedented military siege and draconian curbs on the
fundamental rights and freedoms of Kashmiri people. India’s steps are in clear violation of the UN
Charter; numerous UNSC resolutions; international law, particularly the Fourth Geneva
Convention; humanitarian norms, and all standards of morality.
Despite the use of every available tool of oppression and violation of every single human right
of the Kashmiri people, India has failed to break their will. The indomitable courage of the
Kashmiris has flown in the face of Indian brutality.
India’s ill-conceived actions of August 5, 2019 could have been driven by at least five flawed
assumptions: first, that Kashmiris would accept the Indian actions as fait accompli and would be
subjugated as a result. Second, India would be able to manoeuvre the support of at least some
segments of the Kashmiri polity. Third, India’s organized propaganda machinery would be able to
hoodwink the international community and reshape the global narrative on Jammu and Kashmir.
Fourth, Pakistan would give in to the Indian pressure and withdraw political, moral and diplomatic
support to the Kashmiri people. Fifth, Indian machinations would undermine the will of the
international community, as represented through several UN Security Council resolutions.
The past two years have proved beyond any doubt that all these assumptions were wrong.
India’s first assumption of Kashmiris accepting these actions as fait accompli and giving in to
unabated Indian state-terrorism was delusional. Despite subjecting the people of IIOJK to the most
unprecedented military siege and violating every possible human right of the Kashmiri people,
India has failed to break the will of the Kashmiri people. They have still not given in; rather they
chose to raise their voice against the Indian atrocities more vigorously. Consequently, young
Kashmiris continue to be extra-judicially killed in fake encounters and the so-called ‘cordon-and-
search’ operations.
To this day, the senior Kashmiri leadership remains incarcerated and languishes under squalid
conditions in Indian jails on trumped-up charges. Enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests and
detentions also continue unabated. The enormity of Indian atrocities is being resolutely opposed by
the brave Kashmiris.
The second Indian assumption of being able to manoeuvre support from at least some segments
of Kashmiri polity has also proven wrong. After August 5, 2019, all segments of the Kashmiri
populace and all political factions of IIOJK forcefully rejected, denounced and deplored India’s
illegal and unilateral actions.
When India undertook a farcical exercise this June to seek feedback from certain political parties
of IIOJK by convening, a so-called All-Parties Conference (that didn’t include the true
representatives of Kashmiri people, the Hurriyat leadership), the statements made by the
participants of the meeting invalidated India’s false claims of normalcy in IIOJK. It was evident from
what the participants said that reversal of the actions of August 5 was a unanimous demand. India’s
litany of lies – that the illegal unilateral actions were aimed at enhancing economic development –
was also exposed.
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India’s assumption of its organized propaganda machinery being able to reshape the global
narrative and opinion on Jammu and Kashmir was also flawed. Despite India continuously peddling
false propaganda in futile attempts to push the sham narrative of so-called ‘normalcy’ in IIOJK,
global censure and condemnation of the Indian atrocities in IIOJK continue and have in fact
increased. The international community, including world leaders, parliamentarians, international
human rights and humanitarian organizations and media, have been unanimous in their
condemnation of the ongoing atrocities in IIOJK.
India’s fourth assumption of Pakistan giving in to pressure and withdrawing its support to the
Kashmiri people was also distorted. The past two years have been marked by Pakistan’s efforts to
firmly oppose the unilateral and illegal Indian actions of August 2019. We have used every platform
to highlight the legal, humanitarian and peace and security dimensions of the dispute. Prime
Minister Imran Khan’s address to parliament on August 6, 2019 and his UNGA speeches during the
74th and 75th sessions clearly spelt out Pakistan’s consistent and principled position on the Jammu
and Kashmir matter.
Both the Senate and the National Assembly of Pakistan have adopted multiple resolutions to
condemn Indian illegal and unilateral actions. Multilateral and international forums including the
UN, HRC, OIC and IPU have been effectively engaged to raise Kashmiris’ voice. Since August 5,
2019, the prime minister and the foreign minister have written around 20 letters to the P-5
leadership, the UN Security Council and the UN secretary-general to keep them apprised of India’s
illegal and unilateral measures as well as the continuing gross and systematic violations of human
rights in IIOJK. The government and the people of Pakistan will continue to stand with Kashmiris in
their just struggle till the realization of their inalienable right to self-determination.
The fifth Indian assumption that the ill-intentioned Indian actions will undermine the will of
the international community also proved erroneous. The RSS-BJP regime is bent upon demographic
engineering of IIOJK. More than 3.4 million fake domicile certificates have been issued to non-
Kashmiris to turn Kashmiris into a minority in their own homeland with the ultimate goal of
changing the outcome of UN supervised plebiscite in the occupied territory. By changing
demography in IIOJK unilaterally, India is in complete violation of the Security Council Resolutions,
including Resolutions 47 (1948), 51 (1948), 80 (1950), 91 (1951), 122 (1957) and 123 (1957) and Fourth
Geneva Convention. However, the position of the UN on the issue is clear.
The UNSC has discussed the issue of Jammu and Kashmir at least three times since August 5,
2019; the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has issued two reports in 2018 and
2019, making specific recommendations including the institution of an Independent Commission of
Inquiry to investigate the gross and systematic human rights violations by India in the occupied
territory, in the wake of the August 5, 2019 actions. The UN secretary-general and the president of
the UN General Assembly, through their statements, have also reaffirmed the disputed status of
Jammu and Kashmir and the continued validity and immutability of the relevant UNSC resolutions.
Rather than taking further ill-considered steps under additional failed assumptions, India
would do well to give in to global conscience, end its unabated human rights violations in parts of
Jammu and Kashmir under its illegal occupation and take steps for a peaceful resolution of the
Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with the relevant UNSC resolutions and wishes of the
Kashmiri people.
(Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
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WHY KASHMIR MATTERS

Dr Arif Alvi (President of Pakistan)
T HIS year, Aug 5 will mark two years since India unilaterally and illegally stripped Indian
Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) of its special status. These two years have been a
sombre reminder that our Kashmiri brothers and sisters remain under a brutal military occupation -
one of a handful left in the modern era. It is also a reminder that the valiant spirit of freedom,
imbued in the people of Kashmir by their forefathers through their epic struggle against Dogra rule,
remains undiminished. Despite seven decades of occupation and the denial of their right to
selfdetermination, the Kashmiris continue their steadf ast demand for the right to choose their
future. No amount of brutal oppression and atrocities have dented their resolve.
Pakistan and its people are united in their hearts and in their minds with our Kashmiri brothers
and sisters. We have always stood for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute according to the
aspirations of the people of Kashmir and in keeping with the principles of UNSC resolutions.
Despite the ebb and flow of global politics, Pakistan always has, and will continue to remain
committed to this cause until the Kashmiris are given this right to selfdetermination and therefore,
their freedom.
The government continues to take steps to highlight the Kashmir cause and Indian human
rights violations on the world stage. For the first time in decades, the Kashmir issue has been
discussed at the UNSC. Several leaders across the world and international journalists have called out
India for its human rights violations in IIOJK.
The prime minister, his cabinet, and our parliament have raised serious concerns about brutal
Indian actions in IIOJK since Aug 5, 2019. I share those concerns. The situation on the ground and
the unilateral and illegal actions of the occupying Indian forces demonstrate that a project to erase
the Kashmiri identity is underway in IIOJK. This includes forced demographic change through
arbitr ary alterations in a century-old domicile law. This practice, wherever it has been used,
increases bitterness in the local population against the occupier’s activities and intentions.
Kashmiris are no strangers to the demographic designs of their occupiers. India first employed
thisstrategy during the time of partition. In November 1947, close to 300,000 Kashmiri Muslims were
brutally exterminated in Jammu by the maharaja’s state-sponsored Dogra paramilitaries and
RSSinspired mobs. This genocidal massacre led to the exodus and forced displacement of nearly a
million Jammu Muslims. Experts claim this was a statesponsored massacre to deliberately alter the
demographic make-up of Jammu, a region where Muslims were over 60 per cent of the total
population, and therefore in a clear majority. As a result of the massacre and forced displacement,
Muslims in Jammu were reduced to a minority and the demographics remain artificially altered to
this day.
Today, many in IIOJK fear a repeat of that tragedy.
In addition to demographic change, the Indian government has passed a law to diminish the
use of the Urdu language which has been the official language for the last 131 years in the region.
Muslim names of public spaces are also being changed while an effort to artificially decrease the
representation of Muslims through forced delimitation is another attempt to diminish the unique
identity of Kashmiris.
These actions have been made possible by the unilateral and illegal revocation of Article 370
and 35A completely against the wishes of the people of IIOJK. While Pakistan has never recognised
the application of any article of the Indian constitution on IIOJK, the revocation of Article 370 and
35A have resulted in material change in the situation on the ground a clear violation of bilateral
agreements and international resolutions.
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To ensure that widespread resistance by Kashmiris against these draconian actions is

controlled, the Indian occupation forces have turned IIOJK into a prison like no other in the world.
Today, there is one Indian soldier for every eight Kashmiris. Thousands of political leaders,
teachers, activists, journalists and students remain incarcerated in prisons across India under
draconian laws and trumped up charges. Many Hurriyat leaders are in frail health and their families
fear for their safety.
The BJP government has demonstrated that its Hindutva-inspired political tendencies and
actions not only threaten Kashmir’s political identity andhistorical legacy, but also pose a danger to
regional peace and a global order based on international norms of choice and freedom. India, under
the BJP, has become increasingly revisionist and hegemonic, seeking to change the status quo
through the use of force and military adventurism.
To divert attention from the humanitarian catastrophe in IIOJK, India has embarked on a
campaign to malign Pakistan internationally through a concerted propaganda campaign while
actually sponsoring terrorism against my country, as revealed by Pakistan’s dossier on Indian-
sponsored terrorism and disinformation against Pakistan.
The internationally acclaimed EU DisinfoLab has revealed the manipulation and mischievous ef
forts to mislead the UN system and EU Parliament using fake NGOs and fake news websites to
demean Pakistan. Most recently, a high Indian official has admitted to playing politics on FATF and
leveraging its clout to make Pakistan stay on the grey list.
All these raise important questions for Pakistan and the region. We ask ourselves if the current
Indian government is a rational actor or an ideologically motivated regime that cannot be trusted.
The struggle in Kashmir is indigenous and has always enjoyed popular support against the Indian
military occupation. Through its latest actions, a belligerent India has lost whatever little support it
claimed to have in IIOJK. Kashmiris have always shown bravery, resilience and perseverance in the f ace
of injustice and state brutality. They will resist Indian occupation till they achieve their political rights,
guaranteed to them by the international community under UNSC resolutions.
Pakistan will continue to awaken the world conscience to the plight of the Kashmiris and I urge
the nations of the world and remind them that they owe it to the people of Kashmir and to the
principles of humanity to let Kashmiris decide their future for themselves as enshrined in the UNSC
resolutions.
Kashmir stays as an unfulfilled promise on the world conscience. The day is not far when the
people of Kashmir will be free from the yolk of Indian occupation Insha’Allah.
(Source: Dawn)

STEPS TO TAKE FOR A PEACEFUL KASHMIR

Ghulam Nabi Fai (Secretary general, Washington-based World Kashmir Awareness Forum)
The conflict over the disputed territory of Kashmir is soluble only if a pragmatic, realistic and
tangible strategy is established to help set the stage to put the Kashmir issue on the road to a just
and durable settlement.
Since we are currently more concerned about setting the stage for settlement rather than the
shape the settlement will take, we believe that is it both untimely and harmful to indulge in or
encourage controversies about the most desirable solution to the dispute.
Any attempt to do so at this point of time amounts to playing into the hands of those who
would prefer to maintain a status quo that is intolerable to the people of Kashmir and also a
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continuing threat to peace in South Asia. It also succumbs to the wishes of those who would like to
give the impression that Kashmir is the most complex issue right now.
Complexity is in the eyes of the beholder. There is not a single international issue that is not
complex. If there is interest in resolving the issue, then complexity becomes a motivating factor. If
there is none, then complexity becomes an instrument of passivity and inaction.
We depreciate the raising of quasi-legal or pseudo-legal questions during the preparatory phase
of the final settlement of the Kashmir dispute. It only serves to befog the issue and to convey the
wrong impression that the dispute is too complicated to be resolved and that India and Pakistan
hold equally inflexible positions. Such an impression does great injury to the cause. The United
Nations is in a unique position to play a more activist and mediatory role in regard to Kashmir by
initiating a peace process. This can take the shape of:
 six-party talks involving the U.N., China, Russia, India, Pakistan and Kashmir; or
 the appropriate use of the newly developed procedures and mechanics at the U.N.
UN's duty
In neither case would the handling of the dispute be a rehash of the old arid and acrimonious
debates at the U.N. The United States, by itself or through the U.N., would supply the catalyst that is
needed for a settlement.
There are alternative courses of action that can be spelled out and involve a sequence of
interactive steps over a period of time. None of them would put the peace process in the straitjacket
of rigid adherence to old texts.
But if a solution to the problem will be a graduated process, consisting of incremental measures,
the violence in Kashmir needs to be brought to a quick end in order to set the stage for a solution. It
is interesting to note that when the Kashmir dispute erupted in 1947-48, the world powers
championed the stance that the future status of Kashmir must be determined by the will of the
people of the territory and that their wishes must be ascertained under the supervision and control
of the U.N.
The US was a principal sponsor of Resolution 47, which was adopted by the Security Council on
April 21, 1948, and was based on that unchallenged principle. The basic formula for settlement was
incorporated in later resolutions.
Urgent necessities
Today, the urgent necessities are:
 To demilitarize the area of conflict – the state of Jammu and Kashmir – through a phased
withdrawal of the troops (including paramilitary forces) of both India and Pakistan from the
area under their respective control.
 To take the sting out of the dispute by detaching moves toward demilitarization of the state
from the rights, claims or recognized positions of the three parties involved. In order to do
this, it might be necessary to make the demilitarization of the state the first step toward the
reduction of Indian and Pakistani forces on their borders outside of Kashmir. It is after the
peace process is on solid ground that the rights and claims of the parties can be considered
in a non-violent atmosphere.
 At times, various proposals have been made by different people to set the stage for a
settlement of the long-standing conflict of Kashmir. Most of them seem to be absolute non-
solutions.
 However, regarding solutions, I would rule out one thing and that is not helping: Time. It is
not on the side of Kashmiris. Time will never heal the problem. Time has made things worst
in Kashmir. Let me mention some of the so-called "solutions" here.
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 Convert the existing cease-fire line into a permanent international boundary. This is the ideal
non-solution. One cannot imagine a better formula for sowing a minefield in South Asia that
will lead to a nuclear disaster. To a Kashmiri, the Line of Control (LoC) is a line of conflict.
To talk about converting it into an international border is an insult to the intelligence of the
people of Kashmir.
 An India-Pakistan condominium over Kashmir. This is not a cynical idea, but it needs two
things: first, a maximum sense of cooperation and goodwill on the part of both India and
Pakistan and an absence of friction within Kashmir. If either or both of these conditions do
arise, the arrangement will not only collapse, it will create crises no less grave than those
already existing.
Pakistan, India, and Kashmir
I believe that any future negotiations between India and Pakistan can be meaningful and
successful if all parties concerned – the governments of India and Pakistan and the Kashmiri
leadership – take the following steps:
First, the Government of India must rescind the Domicile law, which was enacted in 2020
simply to change the demography of Jammu and Kashmir. Until this is done, the people of Kashmir
are on the brink of genocide.
Second, there has to be a cease-fire from all sides that must be followed by negotiations.
Negotiations cannot be carried out at a time when parties are trying to kill each other.
Third, there cannot be and should not be any preconditions from any party other than a
commitment to non-violence and to negotiations.
Fourth, as James Wolsey, former chief of CIA has correctly noted, both India and Pakistan have
lost faith in each other and we all know that it is true that they don’t trust each other. Therefore, the
time has come that there must be third-party mediation, facilitation or engagement to make sure that
the talks between India and Pakistan remain focused. The third-party facilitator does not need to be
the U.N. or US, it could be a person of international standing.
Fifth, we do not need to invoke principles because principles will not help launch a peace
process. Principles can easily be twisted and lend themselves to various interpretations.
But the following principles that are involved in the Kashmir dispute shall remain a guiding
force in any final settlement.
Principle #1: It is the inherent right of the people of the five zones of Jammu and Kashmir to
decide their future according to their own will.
Principle #2: It is almost impossible to ascertain the will of the people except in a condition
free from coercion, intimidation or pressure from any quarter. The history of the last 73 years
testifies to the fact that the bilateral talks between India and Pakistan have always been fruitless. In
fact, any attempt to strike a deal between any two parties without the association of the third party
will fail to yield a credible settlement.
The arrangement between Jawaharlal Nehru and Sheikh Abdullah, then prime ministers of
India and Jammu and Kashmir, in 1952; and the pact between Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Abdullah
in 1975 sought to bypass Pakistan, leaving the basic issue of Kashmir unsettled.
Likewise, the Tashkent Agreement of 1966 between India and Pakistan, the Simla Agreement of
1972 and the Lahore Declaration of 1998 sought to bypass the people of Kashmir and resulted in
failure.
So, the time has come that talks must be tripartite as the dispute primarily involves three
parties: India, Pakistan and the people of Kashmir.
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But the primary and principal party are the people of Kashmir because it is ultimately their
future, the future of the 23 million people of Jammu and Kashmir, that is to be decided.
Need for democracy
We want to emphasize that the Kashmiri people are for democracy. They believe that their
leadership and the future disposition of the state must be ascertained through a democratic process.
Kashmiri people will participate in the election if they are part of a process, which would
eventually lead to the Kashmiris’ goal of self-determination. The election process must be organized
and monitored by the U.N.
The elected representatives should have the mandate to enter into negotiations with India and
Pakistan. Impartial and neutral monitors should supervise the whole election process, including the
preparation of voter registration. The constitutional requirement for candidates to take an oath of
allegiance to the Indian Constitution has to be waived.
These ideas need refinement, but they build on the ineluctable truth that nothing fruitful is
possible in Kashmir without the primary participation and willing consent of the Kashmiri people.
Schemes and negotiations that neglect that truth are doomed to failure, as proven by 73 years of
grim conflict in Kashmir with no end in sight.
Finally, history will testify that the final settlement of the Kashmir conflict undoubtedly brought
peace and security not only to Jammu and Kashmir but also to the whole region of South Asia –
home to one-fifth of the human race.
(Source: Daily Sabah)
 185

Law
A STRUCTURAL MALAISE
Shahab Usto (Noted Lawyer)
THE greatest assets of a judiciary are its credibility and independence. The former reflects a
judge’s impartiality and competence, and the latter the strength of legal underpinnings. Combined,
they develop the ethos of a legal system. No wonder, national judiciaries are globally graded for
their jurisprudential quality and institutional autonomy. Unfortunately, our judicial history is not a
happy reading on both counts, thanks to a slew of ‘aberrant’ judgements and recurrent institutional
‘compromises’.
The ongoing fracas with regard to the appointment of junior judges to the Supreme Court, the
recent controversy surrounding the ‘arbitrary’ elevation of the Sindh High Court chief justice as an
ad hoc judge, and the increasing clamour against what is seen as the ‘unbridled’ use of power by
chief justices to constitute benches, are the continuing symptoms of old structural malaises that have
historically sapped the image, and more deplorably, the cohesion of our judicial institution. Judicial
dissent on the construction of law or the Constitution is globally recognised, in fact cherished. But
divisions on administrative or structural issues are quite rare, given the underlying conventions and
procedural buffers. Even discretionary powers to form benches have been largely subjected to
judges’ seniority, experience and expertise. But ominously, social media and bars are abuzz with
speculations regarding perceived divisions in the SC or benches being constituted to ‘influence’ the
fate of important constitutional cases. Of course, these speculations are mere conjecture, but they
could affect the public psyche.
The structural problems — mainly, the constitution of benches, and the elevation of judges —
need to be addressed imperatively also because they are seen to be vitiating the judiciary’s
credibility, bench-and-bar relations, and of course, the smooth and swift administration of justice.
Luckily, the Constitution, the bars and public opinion are favourable towards reforms. The judicial
leadership can set its house in order once and for all by laying down iron-clad conventions and clear
rules for the elevation of judges and constitution of benches, particularly in cases involving sensitive
constitutional issues. The judicial leadership can also review its new-found stress on ‘efficiency’,
rather than seniority, as a governing principle for judges’ elevation to the apex court. No one denies
efficiency being essential for the disposal of cases and enriching jurisprudence. But it’s the concept of
‘efficiency’, and its practical application, which raises tricky questions. For example, what is
‘efficiency’? Is it the disposal of cases, the quality of judgement, administrative deftness, emotional
balance or general reputation? Who will assess it? Those sitting in the Judicial Commission of
Pakistan (JCP), discontented litigants, or members of various bars, who daily appear before the
judges and literally experience their professional competence and personal conduct? And how will it
be assessed? Subjectively, objectively, intuitively or covertly through surveillance?
It should also be analysed if the age-old judicial malaise is rooted in judges’ inefficiency or in
other personal and institutional variables. The intellectual capacity or legal scholarship of our judges
has never been considered suspect by historians. And individual slackness, if any, would have been
cured through multi-stage adjudicatory processes. Instead, history laments perceived personal
ambition and failure to inculcate the judicial ethos of impartiality, efficiency, fairness, certainty,
courage and scholarship — which are indispensable for an efficient and independent judicial
system. For instance, who would dispute the legal training or juridic erudition of the chief justice of
Pakistan, Muhammad Munir (1954-60), or the chief justice of India, A.N. Ray (1973-77)? Both were
accomplished jurists. And yet both willingly conspired with unscrupulous rulers to sabotage
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constitutional norms, for their own careers. They attained the highest judicial offices, but pushed
their respective institutions down. It is another story that a cohesive and wary Indian supreme court,
ably assisted by a host of courageous and competent lawyers, fought back. Not only did it succeed
in building a firewall around the constitution under the rubric of the ‘basic structure’ but also
decisively pushed back a marauding executive. The firewall holds to this day, notwithstanding the
cracks wrought by increasing communalism.
In Pakistan, law students continue to read the same story of personal ambition, lack of cohesion,
institutional compromise, and constitutional setbacks, notwithstanding the arduous bench-bar
struggles, constitutional reforms, and several authoritative judgements on the independence of the
judiciary. No wonder, the balance of power remains tilted in favour of a powerful security
establishment, and our jurisprudence — despite its originality, creativity and articulation — has
reportedly been received with some scepticism abroad. The US State Department’s report casting
doubts on the independence of our judiciary is a recent instance requiring reflection,
notwithstanding the political nature of such reports.
The judiciary’s structural malaise has a federal dimension too. The provincial judiciaries are
largely mixed reflecting the multi-ethnic composition of the state. The SHC has in particular been an
epitome of multi-ethnic blending. The composition of the SC, though, has been seen as lopsided in
this respect. True, the Constitution provides no specific ethnic or regional quota for the apex court.
But it does envisage the SC as a truly federal court. Hence, it mandates the elevation of judges only
from the provincial high courts or local bars. No wonder the JCP’s not elevating the SHC chief
justice, despite his seniority, has not been well received by the lawyers or people of Sindh, and there
might now be fewer expectations of a Sindhi-speaking judge being elevated to the SC for many
years, considering the current composition of the SHC. Therefore, the attorney general was spot on
when he warned in his letter to the JCP that “Pakistan being a federation, its institutions can only
strengthen and work effectively when they reflect all its people”.
Judicial reforms can no more be put off. A credible efficient judicial order is key to meeting the
challenges that beset the country. Judicial stalwarts have to heal structural malaise with a rule-based
therapy if the ills perceived as being born of subjectivity, schism and imbalances are to be removed.
(Source: Dawn)
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Middle East
AMERICA’S DECLINING INFLUENCE IN THE ARAB WORLD
Marwan Muasher (Jordan’s former foreign minister and deputy prime minister)
The end of America’s “unipolar moment” was bound to come sooner or later. As its time as the
sole superpower concludes, its influence in the Middle East is inevitably waning. But the process is
being hastened by rapid change in what have long been the three pillars of American policy in the
region: stability, Israel and oil.
Begin with stability. The Pax Americana has not worked. America has tired of enforcing it, and
Arab countries are tired of having it imposed on them to their detriment. More than two decades of
failed Israel-Palestinian peacemaking, a disastrous war in Iraq and America’s preference for a
nuclear deal with Iran over the interests of Arab states have left the United States and its Arab
partners further apart than ever.
The invasion of Iraq was an especially grievous blunder. The American public was promised a
short and cost-free war, financed by Gulf countries, that would take supposed weapons of mass
destruction out of the hands of a tyrant and, in the words of President George W. Bush, “build a
lasting democracy that is peaceful and prosperous, and an example for the broader Middle East”.
These fanciful promises, based on faulty intelligence and overconfident bluster, met with a cold
reality. They cost America trillions of taxpayers’ dollars and thousands of slain soldiers. The ripple
effects of the failures in Iraq (and Afghanistan) left Americans even more sceptical of military
adventurism overseas, and of global engagement in general.
To most Arabs, the invasion of Iraq was serious interference in their affairs—a violation of their
sovereignty, if not their dignity. They regarded Saddam Hussein not as the brutal dictator that he
was, but as someone who wanted to restore pride to the Arab world; an objective cut loose by an
American war designed, in their view, never to let an Arab country assume any considerable power.
The sweeping protests of the Arab Spring in 2011 proved to all, America included, that the
objective of maintaining regional stability by the time-tested strategy of supporting oppressive
autocrats friendly to the West (unlike Saddam) had ceased being viable. More limited interventions in
Libya and Syria, seeking to work mostly through local proxies, also proved hopeless in creating order.
Faced with these many failures, the United States threw up its hands. As then-President Barack
Obama put it in an interview with the Atlantic in 2016, “We averted large-scale civilian casualties,
we prevented what almost surely would have been a prolonged and bloody civil conflict. And
despite all that, Libya is a mess.” His successors—both Donald Trump and Joe Biden—have been
animated by similar desires to get out.
Their main disagreement is on how to handle Iran. Mr Trump abandoned Mr Obama’s nuclear
deal of 2015, and favoured a policy of “maximum pressure” on Iran; Mr Biden is seeking to revive
the deal. Many Gulf countries feel that, in order to reach an agreement, America is ignoring Iran’s
continued interference in the security and stability of the region.
No American president, it seems, is prepared to entertain an alternative policy: a complex effort
to support a serious process of reform in the Arab world. Worse, in the past 20 years America has
been prone to a policy of “unfinished business”. It starts interventions, fails to achieve its objectives,
hastily departs—and leaves a mess behind for the people of the Middle East to try to fix, or live with.
The withdrawal from Afghanistan is a case in point. The Afghans, including those who sided with
the United States, are left to live under the Taliban.
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Unfinished business is true not only of interventions, but also of the “peace process” between
Israel and the Palestinians. America’s oversight of the negotiations has failed to end Israel’s
occupation. Worse, it has given Israel the cover to entrench the occupation and establish a form of
apartheid—two separate and unequal legal systems for Israelis and Palestinians. Mr Trump’s “deal
of the century”—whereby he moved the American embassy to Jerusalem, in effect blessing Israel’s
annexation of the city, and set out a peace plan that denied Palestinians their dream of
independence—was further proof to the Arab public that the United States not only neglects their
interests, but works directly to undermine them.
And yet America’s alliance with Israel, the second of the three pillars, is changing rapidly. By
embracing Mr Trump, the long-serving former Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu,
accelerated the polarisation of Americans’ views of Israel. What was once an issue of easy bipartisan
agreement has become a contentious front in America’s culture wars. Mr Trump’s ham-fisted peace
plan was intended to appeal to his evangelical supporters, some of whom believe that giving the
land God promised to the Israelites will hasten the end of the world. On the left, meanwhile, Israel’s
enduring occupation has caused a new generation of Americans to question the iron-clad
commitment to Israel. The centre is shifting, too. A poll in 2018 for the University of Maryland found
that if a two-state solution were to prove impossible, 64% of Americans would choose full equality
for Palestinians over Israel’s continued existence as a Jewish state.
This American re-alignment is spurred by a third factor: growing energy independence. The
United States’ net energy imports peaked in 2005 at about 30% of total consumption. But thanks to
the development of fracking, which increased gas- and oil-extraction capacity, America became a net
energy exporter in 2019. It still imports some crude oil, but the share from the OPEC cartel
(dominated by Arab countries) has fallen from 85% to 14%. America has all but freed itself from the
need to secure and protect supplies from Middle Eastern producers. Granted, many of its allies are
still dependent on them, even in a world that is turning away from fossil fuels, but whatever
leverage oil-producing Arab countries could once exert on America is weakening.
Blunders, failures and changing energy-market conditions, coupled with disillusionment with
America’s policies by Arab people and governments alike, have meant that other countries are
starting to fill the vacuum. Russia, Turkey and Iran have stepped in, particularly in Syria, but also
elsewhere. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and, implicitly, Saudi Arabia have forged closer ties
with Israel to counterbalance Iran. China has decided to flex its power through economic means,
pouring significant funds into the region for all willing to accept, no questions asked.
America’s declining influence does not make the road to stability and prosperity any easier.
Though it may not have had much success in the Middle East, it is even less likely that those now
vying for greater influence will do better, or even try to help at all.
The changes wrought by the oil markets, the Arab Spring and the widespread use of social
media mean that Arab states’ old tools for keeping social peace—hard security, subsidies and
public-sector jobs—are weakening. They seek to survive by leaning on ugly, repressive tactics. That
hardly engenders warm feelings among potential supporters or partners in the West. Russia, China
and Turkey all have authoritarian tendencies, and can scarcely be expected to seek to open Arab
systems politically, socially or economically.
And yet achieving stability in the Arab world requires precisely that. Rulers need new tools:
inclusion, equal citizenship and merit-based economic systems that promise social peace and a
better quality of life. Such change cannot come from re-alignment with China, relying on Russia or
an alliance with Israel. It can only be achieved through a serious and gradual homegrown reform
process. With the withdrawal of America from the Middle East, that task must henceforth fall more
than ever on Arab countries themselves. Arab rulers need to understand that reform is essential for
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their survival, and Arab populations need to employ peaceful means to stand up for their rights
more assertively.
(Source: The Economist)

THE PALESTINIAN CAUSE NO LONGER BINDS THE ARAB WORLD

Special Report by the Economist
In the first years after Israel’s founding, David Ben-Gurion promoted an “alliance of the
periphery”. The father of modern Israel saw the Arab world as implacably hostile. So he sought ties
with non-Arab states, chiefly Turkey and Iran, which both established diplomatic relations with
Israel in 1950 (the first Muslim-majority countries to do so).
The periphery looks rather different now. Israeli strategists point to Iran and Turkey as their
chief regional adversaries: the first for its nuclear programmes and promotion of Shia militias, the
second for harbouring Sunni Islamists, such as Hamas leaders. The Arabs no longer seem so
implacable. Last year the uae and Bahrain established diplomatic relations with Israel under the so-
called “Abraham accords”; Sudan and Morocco followed suit. Fully half of Arabs now live in states
that recognise Israel.
This is not to say that the Palestinian cause has lost relevance. A glance at a television in May,
when Israel fought an 11-day war with Hamas, showed otherwise: the bombardment of Gaza was
an omnipresent fixture on the news. It is hard to speak with authority about public opinion in a
region with such repressive regimes. But it is safe to say that most Arabs see Israel’s treatment of the
Palestinians as a moral outrage—even if fewer think it can or should be wiped from the map.
Most of Israel’s peace treaties in the Arab world are decidedly cold ones. Egypt reaped
diplomatic and security benefits from its 1979 treaty, but Egyptians have few cultural or economic
ties with their neighbour. The new Israeli envoy in Morocco struggled for months to find office
space. Even so, the Palestinian cause, once a central issue to the Arab world, is now just one among
many. No Arab state has fought Israel in almost 50 years, and no non-Palestinian group since 2006.
In effect, the Arab-Israeli conflict, which once did so much to stitch together the region, no longer
meaningfully exists.
Unity and disunity
Even in the heady days of Arab nationalism, Arab unity was a stretch. The United Arab
Republic (uar), a merger between Egypt and Syria, lasted only three years. The rulers of Syria and
Iraq, both adherents of Baathist ideology, were often at daggers drawn. And the potentates of the
Gulf wanted no part in a nationalist wave they feared would crash over their own palaces. Egypt
fought a ruinous proxy war with Saudi Arabia in North Yemen in the 1960s.
The Arab-Israeli conflict was an exception. The “three nos”—no peace with Israel, no
recognition and no negotiations—were shared policy for decades. Arab states banded together to
fight Israel in 1948, 1967 and 1973. The defeat in 1967, which saw four Arab armies brought to heel
by the Jewish upstart, played a big part in the demise of Arab nationalism. Nasser resigned, though
he then reversed his decision. The defeat left him humbled: he was forced to sue for peace in Yemen.
Mohammed Heikal, a Nasser confidante, quipped after the war that power in the Arab world
had shifted from thawra (revolution) to tharwa (wealth). The shift was not quite straightforward: at
first religion would supplant revolutionary nationalism. But today the region’s centre of gravity has
moved to the rich Gulf states. Many did not become independent until the 1970s, when the Arab
nationalist tide had already begun to ebb. Sheikh Zayed, founder of the uae, spoke often about the
Palestinians and called Israel an enemy. But he never needed to act on these words: the last Arab-
Israeli war was fought less than two years after the uae became a sovereign state in 1971.
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Even as a rhetorical device, the struggle with Israel has outlived its usefulness. “With all our
love for the Palestinians, and our traditional support for them, there comes a point where we will no
longer be able to sacrifice our interests for local struggles on the Palestinian side,” says a diplomat
from a country that has normalised relations with Israel. One can quibble with this framing. The
Gulf states had quiet security ties with Israel for years; they sacrificed little for the Palestinians. To
call it a “local struggle”, though, underscores how little point it now has for Arab governments.
In February an Emirati probe successfully entered orbit around Mars, making the uae the first
Arab state (and the fifth overall) to reach the red planet. The Emirates sought to frame this as an
Arab accomplishment: for days billboards in Dubai offered “congratulations to the Arabs”.
Assembled in America and launched into space by a Japanese rocket, the probe was hardly a wholly
local endeavour. But the messaging was a sign of the extent to which the uae sees itself as a regional
leader. It may seem an unlikely candidate. It lacks Egypt’s size, Saudi Arabia’s religious clout, or the
long history of Arab capitals such as Baghdad and Damascus. Citizens make up only 10% of its 10m
population. Even its location, on the toe of the Arabian peninsula, is on the periphery, closer to Delhi
than to Cairo.
Many Arabs harbour chauvinism toward the khaleejis, desert-dwelling parvenus whose success
stems from oil, luck and the hard work of foreigners. Yet many also aspire to live there. Dubai offers
personal security and material comfort that are lacking in other Arab states. For decades that has
been the main source of the uae’s soft power. “We want to have a Middle East, and an Arab world,
that is similar to the way in which we run our own country,” says one official.
Emirati officials rattle off priorities that sound drawn from an imf report: efficient, lean
government; support for small business; investment in education. It can seem a caricature of
bloodless, technocratic liberalism. But there is little altruism in the uae’s regional policies. It invests
in agriculture in Sudan to safeguard its own food security, and funds ports on the Red Sea to
support its global logistics hub. It joined the war in Yemen only to secure allies in the south, then
withdrew; it is now quietly building an air base off its coast.
Most of all, the uae has an aversion to mass politics. That is what makes Israel a logical partner,
a state that offers cutting-edge surveillance tools, such as Pegasus software used to spy on
journalists, activists and others. The Arab-Israeli conflict was an exercise in mass politics,
instrumentalised by Arab leaders. The Abraham accords were its opposite: a way to shelve one of
the few causes that resonates across the region but that Arabs have proved powerless to resolve.

THE IRANIAN-ISRAELI COLD WAR IN THE GULF

Deniz Citak
Three weeks ago, Mercer Street, a merchant tanker with ties to an Israeli billionaire sustained an
explosive attack by Kamikaze drones while sailing in the Arabian Sea, off the coast of Masirah, in
Oman. The vessel was flying a Liberian flag and suffered the loss of two crew members, one British
and one Romanian.
No state, militia, group, or otherwise has claimed the attack. The Israeli government, however,
has accused Iran, a claim supported by US and British officials but rejected by Iranian and Russian
officials.
Tensions between Iran and Israel have seen an uptick in recent months. Days after the attack,
Israel conducted cross-border airstrikes in Lebanon for the first time in seven years since the war
with Hezbollah, a militant group supported by Tehran. This year, attacks on vessels in the Persian
Gulf region have resulted in the explosion of Iran’s largest navy ship and a former Israeli-owned
vessel traveling from Saudi Arabia to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Mercer Street, however, is
the first vessel to have lost crewmembers in an attack.
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This year, both Iran and Israel have seen the rise of new governments which have to prove
themselves to their domestic skeptics. Neither side wants a war, but the result of internal political
pressure is harsh statements and provocations without public claims of responsibility.
In Israel, after a parliamentary crisis, a diverse coalition of eight parties spanning the left, far
right, and, for the first time in Knesset history, an Islamist party representing Palestinian citizens of
Israel reached an agreement to form a government ending Benjamin Netanyahu and the Likud
party’s rule. The coalition government led by ultranationalist Naftali Bennett, of the right-wing
Yamina party, and Yair Lapid of the centrist Yesh Atid party must prove—mainly to Netanyahu
supporters—that it is strong enough to maintain Israeli security. At the top of the agenda is
appearing strong in the face of a more aggressive Iran, which means politically isolating it from the
US and Europe and improving Israeli presence in the Persian Gulf.
In Iran, Ebrahim Raisi’s victory in a highly contested election in June marked the end of the era
of reformists, led by former President Hassan Rouhani and former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, and
the return of hardliners. Raisi is a close ally of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who is believed to
have hand-picked Raisi due to their like-minded political views. Where the reformists focused
enormous efforts on diplomacy and engagement with Europe and the US, Raisi will be more focused
on Iran’s regional foreign policy, which now includes dealing with a Taliban-led Afghanistan.
Domestically, Raisi’s most pressing issue is solving the Iranian economy. Plagued by crippling
sanctions and a devastating situation during the coronavirus pandemic, the Iranian economy is in
shambles. In order to improve the economy, Raisi must get sanctions removed, which will require
astute management of foreign affairs and the nuclear issue.
From the beginning of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) negotiations, Israel
expressed its opposition to a nuclear agreement with Tehran. Israel has long seen derailing Iran’s
nuclear program as imperative for its own security and has carried out numerous operations aimed
at exposing what it sees as Iran’s disingenuous claims that its nuclear program is not focused on
weapon production. Additionally, Israel felt snubbed that the Western bloc, Russia, and China
seemed to ignore Israel’s concerns — a complaint echoed by Gulf Arab states, some of which
normalized ties with Israel last year.
The US’s unilateral withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 changed the behavior of both Iran
and Israel. Tel Aviv began to make its presence inside Iran known through a series of operations
targeting Iran’s nuclear program. Though the Israeli government neither confirms nor denies
involvement, intelligence officers maintain that the Mossad was behind a fire and two blasts at the
Natanz centrifuge assembly facility and the killing of Iran’s chief nuclear scientist and general in the
Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.
Iran considered the US’s move to be a breach of the deal and responded by also reneging on its
promises within the deal. In 2019, Iran increased the size of its low-enriched uranium stockpile and
increased the concentration level of uranium that it was holding. Following the killing of General
Qasem Soleimani at the beginning of 2020, Iranian officials announced that they would stop limiting
uranium enrichment. In the last few years, Iran has seen two top officials assassinated, nuclear
facilities attacked, and now its vessels are targets in the Persian Gulf. A nuclear deal would be very
helpful, but as Raisi has stated, Iran will not concede its foreign policy.
Looking forward, the future of the deal will be the most important factor in whether Iran and
Israel will continue intensifying attacks and escalating tensions. Both the Bennet-Lapid and Raisi
governments need to appear assertive and resolute, but at the same time, neither government wants an
all-out war. While Iran cannot afford a military conflict with Israel, especially given its new Gulf allies,
Israel does not want another conflict given the existing ones on its border. A full-fledged war is
unlikely, but as Israeli interests in the area around Iran grow, the cold war will likely get even colder.
(Source: Anadolu Agency)
 192

Olympics 2020
PAKISTAN NEEDS MEDAL-WINNING OLYMPIANS
Tokyo Olympics 2020 concluded on 8th August 2021 with a colourful and dazzling closing
ceremony. Against all odds, due to coronavirus pandemic, Tokyo was successful in hosting the last
year’s Games which were postponed to 2021. This was the first such delay in the Olympic Games’
124-year modern history. The postponement marked the first break in the four-year cycle for the
Summer Olympics since the 1940 and 1944 Games were cancelled because of World War II. Since the
dawn of the 2021, uncertainty had been persisted over the Olympic Games with many countries
urging Japan and the International Olympic Council (IOC) to cancel the Games due to global health
crisis. But the IOC and Japan remained adamant to hold the Olympics and Paralympics at all costs.
Japan’s fourth Olympics, held 57 years after the 1964 Games reintroduced the country to the world
after its World War II defeat, represented a planet trying to come together at a historical moment
when disease and circumstance and politics had splintered it apart. No doubt, sporting events
around the globe are heart-warming, thrilling, inspiring and rejuvenating simply because no other
social event creates an atmosphere which is generated by sporting events. These events bring
together a cross section of sportsmen, officials and other categories of individuals on a platform of
freedom, happiness and uninhibited friendship.
Held in the middle of a resurging pandemic, rejected by many Japanese and plagued by months
of administrative problems, these Games presented logistical and medical obstacles like no other. As
one of the strangest Olympics and most expensive one in recent memory, the mega event ended
without spectators as reminder of the pandemic that could not be brought to heels. Yet perhaps
more than any recent Olympics, the Games were an athletic reality show, inviting viewers to seek
respite from the frustration and tragedy of the past 19 months. The drama of competition and bouts
of rousing sportsmanship offered diversion from the daily counts of coronavirus cases — the ones
within the Olympic bubble and the vastly larger numbers outside of it. A downsized Tokyo 2020, in
which the voice of the athletes and the health of everyone involved, was put at the forefront of
attention and gave the Olympic Movement a new élan of international meaning and relevance. The
Olympic Games served as a beacon of humanity’s resilience and its triumph over the
pandemic.svg%3E
Given numerous scandals involving Tokyo 2020 officials and concerns before the Games that
they might result in a superspreader event, Tokyo organisers could claim success simply because the
worst-case scenario did not occur because of tough COVID-19 measures. Hats off to the
International Olympic Committee (IOC) and Japan for holding the Summer Games 2020 in a
successful manner in difficult times and against expectations.
Athletes’ perseverance became a central story. Mental health claimed bandwidth as never before,
and athletes revealed their stories and struggles in vulnerable, sometimes excruciating fashion. Fans
were riveted by USA athletics legend Simone Biles and her decision to withdraw from most of her
gymnastics events while speaking candidly about mental health issues. New sports like skateboarding
and surfing made their Olympic debuts. There were upsets: The USA women’s soccer team fell to
Canada in semifinals; Jun Mizutani and Mima Ito won Japan’s first gold medal in table tennis over the
Chinese world champions. Naomi Osaka, after lighting the Olympic cauldron for Japan, was
eliminated in the third round of her tennis tournament, denying the host country a potential gold
medal moment it had dearly hoped for. There were history-making triumphs: Allyson Felix surpassed
Carl Lewis as the most decorated American Olympian in track and field, and Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya
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successfully defended his gold medal in the men’s marathon. India won their first medal in hockey for
more than 40 years after defeating Germany 5-4 in a thrilling bronze medal match.
Pakistan badly needs medal winning Olympians: Since independence Pakistan sports are on the
map. International sports performances by Pakistan in the last seven decades have much to
commend them. Arguably, Pakistan’s performances in many sports have inspired many countries to
emulation to future achievements. But the last two decades have been a different story altogether.
Over the years, Pakistan sports have gone to the dogs. Pakistan’s performance in international sports
is no longer consistent with its population and economic bases. In the 1950s and early 1960s, we
were amongst the top five sporting nations in Asia and have now come down to the lowest. We
used to excel in major sports. Now we are not even amongst the first 30 out of 45 participating
countries in the Asian Games.
Anybody outside the country who spent time watching the last two Olympic Games — Tokyo
2020 in Japan and Rio 2016 in Brazil — might not realise that sports are played in Pakistan. At the
Tokyo Olympic Games, the Pakistan Olympic Association had sent ten athletes. A nation of 220
million was represented by just ten sportspersons. The 10 comprised seven men and three women,
competing in athletics, badminton, judo, shooting, swimming, and weightlifting. Before that, at the
Rio Olympic Games 2016, Pakistan had its smallest-ever contingent: just seven athletes. Since 1948,
hockey had been Pakistan’s main hope for an Olympic medal. The hockey squad always formed a
major part of Pakistan’s Olympic contingent. It is lamentable that Pakistan hockey, which remained
up in the clouds for more than three decades, is not the same force that it used to be, and failed to
qualify for two consecutive Olympic Games: Rio 2016 and Tokyo 2020. Pakistan hockey, which
inspired millions around the globe, last won an Olympic medal in 1992 Barcelona.
Pakistan failed to win a medal of any colour at the Tokyo Olympics. It is sad that Tokyo 2020
was no different from Rio 2016, London 2012, Beijing 2008 or any of the preceding Olympics going
back to Atlanta 1996, with Pakistan returning empty-handed from each of the last seven Olympic
Games. The sum total of Pakistan’s Olympics achievements since 1947 is ten medals. Eight in
hockey, including three golds, one each in wrestling and boxing. Pakistan haven’t won a medal for
29 years. The fact is that Pakistan continues to nosedive further as time passes and one isn’t even
sure if we have hit our lowest point yet.
Pakistan won their last Olympic medal at the Barcelona Olympics in 1992, Cricket World Cup in
1992, Hockey World Cup in 1994 and World Snooker Championship in 1994. There have been
successes like the 2009 World Twenty20 title, the IBSF World Snooker Championship crown in 2012
and the ICC Champions Trophy 2017 triumph, but such victories have been few and far between.
Over the years, not one, not two but almost all sports have experienced a sharp slump in our
country. It goes beyond misfortune and carelessness and instead appears to be a trend. Since 1997,
five years after Pakistan’s last Olympic medal in any sport, Pakistan’s superiority in squash is no
more. Like the Olympics and hockey, squash has nothing to showcase since the 1990s. The older
generation still talks and recall with great delight the spellbinding achievements of the past while
the present generation only has tales of the past to live on.
Talha Talib and Arshad Nadeeem shine despite not reaching podium: Pakistan had serious
hopes of an Olympic medal – its first since 1992 and first ever in athletics – when Arshad Nadeem
arrived at the Tokyo Olympic Stadium for the men’s javelin final. Arshad, Pakistan’s first-ever track-
and-field athlete to qualify for the Olympic Games, had made history when he reached the final and
was aiming to do better than weightlifter Talha Talib who narrowly missed out on bronze earlier in
Tokyo. Arshad eventually finished fifth, meaning Pakistan’s wait for an Olympic medal will go on
till the Games in Paris in 2024. Arshad and Talha’s performances showed that Pakistan has
improved since the 2016 Rio Olympics. Arshad and Talha had raised our hopes purely because of
their own talent and struggle, with a little help from their respective national federations or the
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government. Lack of availability of proper facilities and infrastructure, inadequate role of sports
federations and lack of support from the government has badly affected Pakistan’s graph in sports.
Perhaps the biggest reason for the extraordinary decline in sports in Pakistan is lack of funding and
vision. Pakistan’s sports budget is the lowest in South Asia, less than that of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka
and even Afghanistan. Governments all over the world keep sports and education as their top
priority, build infrastructure, hold talent development programmes for players and promote
medical sciences in sports to compete the world of sports. But in Pakistan it is totally opposite
because sports are not our priority.
It is also very unfortunate that Pakistan sports, over the years, have become politicised and
nepotistic. In the national sphere and the sporting arena the root of our dilemma is the notorious
system of patronage and imposed cronies, to the exclusion of merit and professionalism. Under the
powerful patron’s benevolent gaze, the pick and choose appointees can survive scandals and
failures that would crush an ordinary mortal. These are times when one fails to figure out what is
keeping Pakistan sports alive. In other countries, the people running the sports affairs contribute by
taking professional decisions and by executing them with competence rather than on the basis of
personal preference and bias. But, frankly, we are not such a nation. In Pakistan most things defy
logic. With the passage of time we have all come to accept the reality of our warped existence and
begun to believe that if something has to go wrong, there are over 100 percent chances that it will
happen here.
What more depressing is that sports activities in schools, colleges and universities have touched
an all-time low because of diminishing sports fields, poor systems and lack of interest in sports by
young generation that have many other options to keep them occupied. But perhaps the worst
aspect of this development is that educational administrators no longer feel that sports are an
integral part of all decent educational systems. Some even think it is a waste of time. This is one of
the main reasons why student representation in our national sports teams is becoming negligible
compared to the past when most of our national teams thrived on student and university
representation. This particular flaw in our educational system is one of the major causes of
intolerance in our society.
At the same time, cricket has overshadowed all other sports in the country including our
national game – field hockey. Television, commercialisation and the advertising world have
promoted cricket to an extent that it has become a Mount Everest that is badly affecting other sports
in the country. Popularity of cricket, especially among the younger generation, has prevented the
growth of other sports activities. Government officials and private sector are not interested in
investing in anything other than cricket. Patronising only cricket and ignoring other sports is very
unfair. Cricket does not have the kind of global competition that other sports have as its playing is
limited to a handful of largely Commonwealth countries.
We have also become a funny nation that likes to live in a world of dreams and fantasies. We dream
of excellence at international level in sports without even realising that the present sports set-up in
Pakistan just does not have the capacity to deliver. Therefore, those who feel that the present set-up can
be result oriented are not living in a realistic world. Modern sports structures all over the world have
sports institutes as integral components of their systems. Even Bangladesh has one. It is unfortunate that
after 74 years of independence we have not been able to establish one. There are a variety of reasons for
this vital missing link in our sports. People at the helm of affairs either do not realise the importance of
this institution or hesitate simply because they do not know how to go about it.
One honestly feel that we have the potential to produce good results if, and it is a big IF, we can
evolve a modern scientific system – not too ambitious but one based on our national ground
realities, available manpower and above all the capacity to deliver. The entire mind-set has to be
changed. The subject of sports is now a science and this is the starting point that everybody
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associated with sports in Pakistan needs to accept. There are certain imperatives and they need to be
understood clearly. We also need to drill home the importance of sports in our national priorities:
how sports provide the only recreational oxygen for masses, educate tolerance and are the only
uniting national gel at this critical juncture in our history. It is time for the government to realise that
Chinese sports model has to be followed as far as possible to channelise our youth and provide them
avenues to excel. Such a strategy will automatically eliminate problem confronting our youth. Thus
the present government, the POA, the Pakistan Sports Board (PSB), Ministry of Inter Provincial
Coordination (IPC) and the responsible sports officials of national sports federations should
sincerely cooperate to develop such a vision for the good of Pakistan youngsters.
Foreign coaches, sports exchanges, streamlined domestic competitions and sustained training
camps should form integral components of this plan. This plan should be gotten approved from the
Prime Minister, so that funds allocation doesn’t become a problem. The IPC Ministry, the POA and
the PSB should then hold an in-depth meeting with office bearers of the concerned national sports
federations to solicit their advice and opinion on improvement in this plan. Granted that the current
situation seems to be hopeless but one has always been an optimist and believe that where there is a
will, there is a way.
Sports are littered with examples of sports men and women who have performed well against
the odds —- that’s partly what keeps us watching as spectators. Confucius said: “Our greatest glory
is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.” This quote, in part, explains why sports
people can recover from adversity and perform well. Some would argue that failure is a necessary
part of the process of success. The important thing here is not the adversity that is faced but how
those affected react to the adversity. One can respond by giving in and allowing the adversity to
perpetuate, developing a culture of failure, or by demonstrating a dogged determination to rebuild
and rise again.
To rise above again, Pakistan sports require strong financial backup, commitment and self-
belief. Only hard and incessant efforts lead to success. Only then the elusive triumphs will replace
the current tragedies that demean the country once basking in Olympic golds and world crowns. In
the absence of these, we should not dream of reaching the skies. To rise from nothing, against all
adversity, and reach the pinnacle, that is a dream that is as powerful today as it has ever been.
Olympians are marked by their heroics, their endeavor and their struggle against the odds. Pakistan
has no Olympians of note for our present generation. The Tokyo Olympics should be a wake-up call
for the government, and the country’s sporting authorities. Paris Olympics 2024 will be no different
if the current crisis in Pakistan sports continues.
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Organizations
IS IRAN’S LONG QUEST TO JOIN THE CHINA-LED
SCO NEARLY OVER?
Sanctions-hit Iran has claimed that it is on the verge of full membership of a China-led security
grouping, with the country’s new security chief saying it is now only a question of formalities.
Diplomatic analysts said if that were the case it would amount to international recognition of
Iran in the face of opposition from the United States.
Ali Shamkhani, secretary general of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said on Twitter
on Wednesday that Iran’s years-long efforts to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation were
close to realisation.
“An hour ago, in a phone call with my friend and colleague Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of the
Russian National Security Council, we examined the developments in Afghanistan, Syria and the
Persian Gulf,” he said.
“Fortunately, the political obstacles to Iran’s membership in the Shanghai agreement have been
removed and Iran’s membership will be finalised through technical formalities.”
But a Russian statement about the meeting did not mention progress on Iran’s membership and
the SCO has also not made any announcement.
Tehran has been pushing for international engagement. It faced years of international sanctions
before signing the Iran nuclear agreement in 2015, and has been wary of further isolation since
former US president Donald Trump walked away from the accord in 2018 and reimposed sanctions.
An observer at the SCO since 2005, Iran applied for full membership in 2015. India and Pakistan
became observers at the same time as Iran but they have been members since 2017.
The full members of the SCO are China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan,
Uzbekistan, India and Pakistan.
Iran’s efforts to upgrade its status have faced opposition from members like Tajikistan and
Uzbekistan, in part because of the international sanctions.
Iran and the US are negotiating to revive the nuclear deal but both sides are demanding the
other comply with the deal first.
James Dorsey, senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang
Technological University in Singapore, said SCO membership would be in Iran’s interests but China
might not want to “rock the boat” by allowing it now.
“China doesn’t want to expose itself to more US sanctions, and so it has struck relatively careful
with Iran for the past several years ... It’s clearly not where they want to go, I don’t see that that has
changed,” Dorsey said.
Russia could have a “greater interest to poke in the eye of the US than China does at this point”,
he said.
Fan Hongda, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies
University, said that if Iran’s membership was confirmed, it would be a declaration that China and
Russia were accepting Iran into a multilateral institution despite US pressure.
“If it is really confirmed, I would not be too surprised, because relations between China and
Iran were already going in the direction of further cooperation when they finalised their 25-year
comprehensive cooperation agreement earlier this year,” Fan said, referring to a deal signed in
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March assuring China’s expanded presence in Iran across a wide range of sectors, from energy and
banking, to telecommunications.
“However, I would say this has to wait until an official confirmation to be taken seriously,” Fan
said.
(Source: South China Morning Post)

IS IT WORTHWHILE TO OBSERVE UNITED NATIONS’

INTERNATIONAL DAYS?
Amjed Jaaved
Each year, the UN observes international days to create awareness on ‘issues of concern’. The
issue of self determination for the Kashmiri in prison and creation of Palestinian State as per UN
resolution is never an international day. The avowed aim of observing such days is to ‘mobilize
political will and resources to address global problems and to celebrate and reinforce achievements
of humanity.
The people who generally participate in such days and are in media limelight generally hail
from the elite stratum of society (foto shoots, Face book and Twitter displays, sumptuous dinners).
One reason why the laity stays aloof is the conviction that the elitist marches and rallies would
evolve no concrete programme to ameliorate lot of the common man. . For instance, coronary
patients can’t be cured simply through brisk walks and riding bikes in vanishing forests, roads being
dangerous. Education is a complex issue and it can’t be improved without stimulating unmotivated
teachers and correcting pay and fee structure.
Universal Health Coverage Day
We would observe this day on 12th December. I for one wonder dishing out health certificates
as doles selectively would get us closer to universal healthcare. The USA is a rich country. Even it
discouraged doles. Even the oil tycoons doling out money to the needy were mocked.
Universal medicare requires careful reallocation of resources. If India and Pakistan remain at
daggers drawn, it would be well-nigh impossible to move chunks away from defence to welfare. So,
it may require even international cooperation and a bit of détente.
No healthcare system, not even the US ‘system’, in the world is perfect. Yet, each, by and large,
delivers the goods. What about ours? The testing-and-treatment facilities even for COVID19 in our
country are woefully inadequate.
We should draw inspiration from the successful role models.
The familiar medical system of wealthy countries is the Bismarck model (multi-payer health-
insurance model), the Beveridge model, the National Health Insurance Model, the out-of-pocket
model, and the US model. The government should pick up good points of medical systems of
wealthy and poor countries alike. The Bismarck model is being followed in Belgium, France,
Germany, Japan and Switzerland.
Generally, healthcare providers in this model are private entities. The government neither owns
nor employs most physicians. Health insurance also is provided by private companies, not by the
governments. Governments strictly regulate costs and other aspects of healthcare (no arbitrary fees
and fleecing). The US outspends its peer nations on health. Yet it has no universal-health insurance,
nor universal health coverage.
Thailand’s successful healthcare plan reflects three lessons: Being prepared, exercising tight
control, and being pragmatic and politically broadminded.
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Thailand took opposition and other stakeholders aboard. As such, the plan remained intact
despite change of governments. Thailand’s per capita income, health expenditures, and tax base is
comparable to India. Yet, it achieved universal healthcare in 2002.
India is submerged in dole system like us.It spends around four per cent of its Gross Domestic
Product on health. In Thailand out-of-pocket medical expense has fallen to 12 per cent, as compared
to 40pc to 60pc per cent in wealthy countries. The proportion of children dying in the first five years
of life fell to less than 1.2pc. Thailand saved money by shutting down or consolidating selected
good-for-nothing lackadaisical hospitals (like ours) that had large government budgets.
Short of funds, we should put our fragmented unbridled hospitals under one civil-military
supervisory board, and distribute load reasonably. The facilities at Pakistan Institute of Medical
Sciences should be improved, including increasing number of ventilators.
The politically-expedient burden of residents of Rawalpindi/Islamabad on Federal Government
Services Hospital should be taken off. The hospital is now good for nothing. It is of little use IT is
laudable that our government is alive to woefully inadequate medical facilities for the common man.
No healthcare system, not even the US ‘system’, in the world is perfect. Yet, each, by and large,
delivers the goods. What about ours?
The familiar medical system of wealthy countries is the Bismarck model (multi-payer health-
insurance model), the Beveridge model, the National Health Insurance Model, the out-of-pocket
model, and the US model. The government should pick up good points of medical systems of
wealthy and poor countries alike. The Bismarck model is being followed in Belgium, France,
Germany, Japan and Switzerland.
Generally, healthcare providers in this model are private entities. The government neither owns
nor employs most physicians. Health insurance also is provided by private companies, not by the
governments. Governments strictly regulate costs and other aspects of healthcare (no arbitrary fees
and fleecing). The US outspends its peer nations on health. Yet it has no universal-health insurance,
nor universal health coverage.
Thailand’s successful healthcare plan reflects three lessons: being prepared, exercising tight
control, and being pragmatic and politically broadminded.
Thailand took opposition and other stakeholders aboard. As such, the plan remained intact
despite change of governments. Thailand’s per capita income, health expenditures, and tax base is
comparable to India. Yet, it achieved universal healthcare in 2002.
It spends around four per cent of its Gross Domestic Product on health. In Thailand out-of-
pocket medical expense has fallen to 12 per cent, as compared to 40pc to 60pc per cent in wealthy
countries. The proportion of children dying in the first five years of life fell to less than 1.2pc.
Thailand saved money by shutting down or consolidating selected good-for-nothing lackadaisical
hospitals (like ours) that had large government budgets.
Short of funds, we should put our fragmented unbridled hospitals under one civil-military
supervisory board, and distribute load reasonably. The facilities at PIMS should be improved,
including increasing number of ventilators.
The politically-expedient burden of residents of Rawalpindi/Islamabad on Federal Government
Services Hospital should be taken off. The hospital is now good for nothing for the civil servants for
which it was built. Many of its doctors are nicely available at Ali Medical provided you can pay.
The ‘civilian officers paid out of defence services’, including the retirees disentitled from in-
service medical treatment, should be empanelled to military (CMH/MH) and other hospitals (like
Shifa International or Aga Khan’s) for secondary and tertiary treatment to reduce FGSH patient
load. In case of financial crunch, such officers may be called upon to contribute to an insurance
based system contributed to by the parent departments and the officer/retiree.
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For one-thing our healthcare system, like our education and law-and-order systems, is on auto-
pilot mode.
Anti-Corruption Day
This day was observed on 9th December. Corruption is a hydra-headed monster. It entangles
not only politics but also almost every other realm of life. The enforcement laws are either too
stringent or too lax. Those indulging in financial corruption know the inbuilt loopholes.
The economically advanced countries pay lip service to calls for eliminating corruption. It is the
advanced countries where offenders stash their money. Have a look at Britain. You would see there
the world’s most corrupt tycoons living in comfort.
The UNO needs to study manifestations of corruption in different fields of life and recommend
measure to curb it.
In a society like ours where there is no healthcare or free education, people are prone to
indulge in corruption. They want to save a penny for a rainy day. Even young doctors find it
alluring to try their luck at superior civil services. Authority and corruption go hand in hand. People
join politics not to serve the common man but to serve themselves and their kith and kin. Lord
Acton has rightly said “power corrupts and absolute power tends to corrupt absolutely”.
The international financial institutions are not interested in everyday corruption in Pakistan.
They are focused on money transactions that may lead to terrorism in their countries. One
worrisome aspect is hand-to-hand transactions facilitating stashing money abroad.
Illicit money abroad: According to international media, the money belonging to Pakistanis in
Swiss banks far exceeds that of Indians’ (excluding dormant accounts of about $300 million). It is
speculated that Pakistan could retire its entire debt (and even build some dams) if this money is
repatriated. From 2013 to 2016, then finance minister Ishaq Dar (now a fugitive under extradition)
held negotiations with Switzerland regarding hidden bank accounts, double taxation and granting
Switzerland the most-favoured-nation status. It is eerie that the upshot of the negotiations was that
only accounts from January 2018 onwards could be investigated. Dar himself is nowadays a
declared absconder at law. He preferred to flee to Britain instead of proving his honesty before
Pakistani courts. He cut a sorry figure when the BBC asked him some awkward questions about his
assets and that of his family.
Pakistan became a priority region for counter-terrorist financing, due to the presence of al-
Qaeda and other terrorist groups, porous Pak-Afghan border, and cash-based economy that often
operates through informal mechanisms, such as hawala (hand-to-hand delivery).
Despite freezing of over US$ 10 million of al-Qaeda assets, Washington remained rueful.
International attitude to India and Pakistan’s efforts smacked of blow-hot-blow-cold (‘US slams
India, praises Pak on terror!’Indian Express, July 15, 2005,). In yesteryears, India was the bête noire.
Now, the focus is on Pakistan.
Learning from India
To check the flight of money abroad and get ‘foreign’ money repatriated, Pakistan could learn
from India.
Financial offenders are highly qualified people, educated in foreign universities. For instance,
Nirav Modi is an accomplished Real Estate lawyer. He developed a specialization in acquisitions
and disposals of corporate vehicles and underlying real estate assets. He is an expert in private
mergers, acquisitions and disposals in the children’s nurseries, dental practices and other sectors.
Even super-sleuths in India could not get back Rs. 11400 crore chipped off from Indian-Punjab Bank.
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The fraudsters abroad remained immune to the Enactment of Economic Offenders Bill,
extradition request under and mutual legal assistance, and so on. A fugitive offender may seek
political asylum if he is not entitled to ‘indefinite leave’ to stay in a foreign country.
India focused on Mehul Choksy, Nirav Mallya, alleged bookie Sanjeev Chawla, and Tiger
Hanif. Notwithstanding the extradition treaty with the UK since 1993, it could get back only one
offender.
Inference: Observing International Days is useless unless accompanied with follow-up action by
stakeholders.
Unlike India, Pakistan’s enforcement bureaucracy lacks the competence to deal with shrewed
money launderers. A plethora of cases against the previous government bureaucrats have their
enthusiasm for taking bold steps. Pakistan’s bureaucracy acts hands in glove with politicians. Tax
circulars and tax-amnesty schemes are invented to whiten black money. Interestingly, even three-
time prime minister Nawaz Sharif like so many other politicians has no declared business. They
plead their sons or foreign princes gold-fingered them
Even offenders in India did not cough up a penny. Incentive schemes look better than legal
mousetraps.
(Source: Modern Diplomacy)

20 YEARS OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION

Cooperation for stability and prosperity
Emomali Rahmon (President of Tajikistan)
Since the early days of gaining its state independence, the Republic of Tajikistan, based on the
principles of the “open doors” policy, peacefulness and objectivity, established and subsequently
extended and strengthened friendly, equal and mutually beneficial relations with most countries of
the world, and with number of them established strategic partnership. One of the priorities of the
international strategy of the Republic of Tajikistan is the policy of good-neighbourliness and
multilateral cooperation with the Central Asian states. The creation of an atmosphere of credibility
and security along the entire perimeter of the country’s borders is one of the key goals of this policy.
Along with this, the foreign policy of our state aimed at ensuring wide-ranging and effective
participation of the country in relevant international and regional organizations. Through the
implementation of such policy, Tajikistan makes its feasible contribution to ensure security and
peace, the establishment of beneficial international cooperation and constructive dialogue, and takes
the advantage of the capabilities of international and regional organizations to enable the
sustainable development of the country and strengthening its position in the international arena.
This year the Republic of Tajikistan celebrates the 30th Anniversary of State Independence.
During this short period by historical standards, our republic has established full-fledged diplomatic
relations with 179 countries of the world and has become an active member of prestigious
international and regional organizations.
By establishing partnerships with the world community within the framework of international
and regional organizations, the Republic of Tajikistan has expanded cooperation with the UN and its
specialized agencies, SCO, CSTO, OSCE, ECO and OIC, as well as with other development partners,
international and regional financial institutions.
In the framework of multilateral diplomacy, the Republic of Tajikistan pays particular attention
to the development of fruitful relations within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (hereinafter referred to as SCO / Organization). It is no coincidence that the current
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Foreign Policy Concept of the Republic of Tajikistan notes: “Active participation of the Republic of
Tajikistan in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization aims to strengthen good-neighbourly ties,
friendly and amicable relations among the Member States and observers of the Organization, as well
as ensuring security, stability and sustainable development in the region”.
Therefore the Republic of Tajikistan perceives priority areas of its activities within the
framework of this Organization not only in the spheres of security and economic collabouration but
also in the development and improvement of multilateral cooperation in the cultural and
humanitarian fields.
Tajikistan also supports the involvement of observer states in the sphere of combating the
contemporary challenges and threats within the SCO.
It should be highlighted that the SCO, the twentieth anniversary of which we are celebrating
this year, has confirmed from the first day of its activity that it is a dynamic Organization and a
reputable international institution not only in the region but also at the global level.
Over its twenty-year history, the SCO has turned into one of the most influential international
organizations of a new type, into a unique regional structure that has repeatedly proved its
universal character in resolving topical world issues. The course of events in the era of globalization
has clearly shown to all political actors that no state alone is capable of effectively dealing with
modern challenges and threats. Under such circumstances, only coordinated measures and joint
efforts of all states can be effective.
A popular proverb says, “A friend in need is a friend indeed”. The SCO member states in the
most difficult times of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated their solidarity,
provided effective support to each other on many problematic issues. The world has once again
become convinced that the member states of the Organization are committed to the values and
principles of the “Shanghai Spirit”.
The SCO has gone through a long process of formation to reach the current stage of
development and become a powerful international organization. To establish the organization as
such, it was essential to go through a period of fruitful and multifaceted cooperation.
Considering the development of the international situation and the surge in security threats in
the region at the end of the 90’s of the last century, the “Shanghai Five” member states faced the
crucial decision. It was necessary to agree on the creation of a new, improved organization as one of
the most important tools to counter the new threats and challenges that are gaining strength.
Taking into account the real state of affairs, the Heads of State decided to initiate the foundation
for creating a more complete structure based on the “Shanghai Five”, which could unite China,
Russia and all the Central Asian countries into a single regional organization.
Considering the identified tasks an intergovernmental commission was established, which
carried out immense consultative work.
On 25 August 1999, fourth summit of the “Shanghai Five” held in Bishkek. At this forum, it was
decided to transfer the initiative to hold the Fifth summit of Heads of State to Tajikistan.
The presidency of the Republic of Tajikistan in the “Shanghai Five” lasted from September 1999
to July 2000.
During the presidency, we carried out comprehensive preparatory work on holding the summit
of the “Shanghai Five”, to which the leadership of the Republic of Uzbekistan was invited.
The meeting of the Heads of the “Shanghai Five” countries, which took place on 5 July 2000 in
Dushanbe, became a remarkable event of particular significance. The “Shanghai Five” was called the
“Shanghai Forum” in Dushanbe. It was this Dushanbe decision that laid the foundation for the
creation of the SCO.
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Thus, a proposal to transform the “Shanghai Five” into a regional international organization,
which is currently known as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, introduced in Tajikistan. The
Dushanbe Declaration of 2000 laid down the fundamental ideas about the goals, objectives and main
directions of activities of the future prestigious regional international organization – SCO, which
today has taken a worthy place in world political reality.
Later, on 15 June 2001, a meeting of Heads of State took place in Shanghai during which a Joint
Declaration on the Republic of Uzbekistan’s accession to the “Shanghai Five” was adopted, and a
Declaration on the establishment of the SCO was signed based on the accumulated experience
within the “Shanghai Five”.
As humanity entered the new century, the world has witnessed the emergence of a powerful
international structure.
One of the important steps in the formation and development of the SCO was the meeting of
the Council of Heads of State in 2005: it took a fundamental decision to grant observer status within
the Organization to three major Asian powers – India, Iran and Pakistan. Earlier in 2004, status was
granted to Mongolia. The geographical expansion of the Organization made it possible to rise its
international significance.
Later in 2007, the SCO countries signed an Agreement on Long-Term Good Neighbourliness,
Friendship and Cooperation.
In 2009, a decision was taken to grant the status of a dialogue partner to Sri Lanka and Belarus.
In 2012, the SCO leaders adopted a Declaration on Building a Region of Long-Term Peace and
Shared Prosperity. In the same year, Afghanistan gained observer status in the SCO, and Turkey
became a dialogue partner.
In 2014, India and Pakistan officially applied for the SCO membership. This coincided with
Tajikistan’s chairmanship in the SCO in 2013-2014. This period gave a new impetus to the procedure
for considering the issue of granting the status of the SCO Member State. The Summit of the Heads
of State of the Member States in Dushanbe laid a solid foundation for the elabouration of a legal
basis for the procedure for granting the status of the SCO Member State. This procedure was further
discussed and finalized at the next Summit of Heads of State.
In 2015, the leaders of the SCO countries approved a decision to commence the procedures for
admitting India and Pakistan to membership in the Organization, and resolutions were also signed
on granting Belarus an observer status at the SCO, as well as on granting the status of a dialogue
partner to Azerbaijan, Armenia, Cambodia and Nepal. Thus, the SCO has promptly evolved from a
standard regional organization into a large international organization. Such a rapid expansion of the
Organization over just two decades, both in structure and in the variety of activities, demonstrates
precision in determining the goals and good intentions of the SCO.
This process produced its first results at the Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
in Astana in June 2017. The two largest countries in the region, India and Pakistan, have obtained
the status of member states of the Organization.
It is noteworthy that, according to the fair opinion of most experts, such organizations in the
contemporary world are the essential organizers of interstate communication to facilitate the
solution of international issues. Since the very beginning of the SCO establishment, the entities were
set up to meet the demands of modern realities. For instance, the SCO Secretariat and the Executive
Committee of SCO Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), which have been operating since
January 2004, were identified as permanent bodies or structures based on mutual agreement of the
parties. Beijing city was determined as the venue of the SCO Secretariat, while Tashkent city was the
venue of the SCO Executive Committee.
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Generally, analyzing the overall arrangements of the SCO establishment and all phases of its
development it should be emphasized that many political, historical and economic factors led to the
emergence of the Organization in the political space of Eurasia, the most important of which are:
– destruction of the bipolar system in international relations;
– formation of a new world order as a result of the collapse of the former USSR;
– rise of new challenges and threats, among of which terrorism, extremism and separatism were
the most dangerous phenomena;
– realization of the principles of a just world order, dominated by the aspiration for joint
development, taking into account the experience of relations that have developed among the
countries of the region within the framework of the “Shanghai Five”;
– joint pursuit for new effective mechanisms that would enhance the regional integration of
countries;
– formation of a new model of cooperation in the region, where the priority areas are security,
economic interaction and cooperation in all areas.
In fact, in the years when the SCO was founded, significant changes took place in the world that
completely altered the content and vectors of world politics. In this regard, the countries that
initiated the establishment of this Organization had to adapt it to new world realities, to fast-paced
conditions and seek a worthy place for it in the world political arena. The new conditions required
the newly formed regional international organization – SCO, to operate differently, more actively
contribute to the solution of topical regional problems.
The question arose in this way: the Organization must have the capability and ability to meet
the interests of the member states, to carry out economic, trade, cultural and humanitarian
integration in complicated international circumstances.
The further activities of the SCO proved that the Organization not only succeeded in starting to
address these issues but also to become a structure that occupies strong positions in the international
political arena.
The SCO’s activities are focused, which is very important, not only on political issues but also
on economic ties. Within the framework of the Organization, the long-term economic cooperation
plans have been approved by the member states, the purpose of which is to facilitate the free
movement of goods, services and technologies among all member states. The interaction of countries
in the fight against crime, in the spheres of culture and education, science and innovative
technologies, as well as in such areas as health care and the agro-industrial complex is also gaining
strength.
Twenty years of the SCO’s activity confirms that this Organization is reputable and influential
platform for discussing and solving pressing regional and international issues.
Accordingly, Tajikistan is involved in its activities, including in the Program of Multilateral
Trade and Economic Cooperation of the SCO Member States and interacts in the implementation of
various projects and in other areas.
Over twenty years of its activity in the field of international politics, the SCO has been a
hallmark of an effective organization and has won great authority in the fast-growing world. Its
recognition as an observer in the UN General Assembly as well as effective cooperation with the
Commonwealth of Independent States and ASEAN testifies to the growing status of the
Organization in world politics.
On the other hand, further progress and expansion of the SCO depend on many regional and
international factors. This is, primarily, the geopolitical situation in the world, cooperation in
matters of regional security and trade and economic development.
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It would be appropriate to state that the role of the Republic of Tajikistan, as one of the founders
of the SCO, is essential in the process of formation and development of the Organization.
Tajikistan chaired the Council of Heads of State in 2008 and 2014, and the Council of Heads of
Government of the SCO member states in 2006, 2010 and 2018.
We will expand our activities within the framework of the Organization and strengthen our
relations with its members, continue our joint activities within the SCO in the field of countering
modern challenges and threats, in particular, terrorism, extremism, illicit drug trafficking and other
manifestations of transnational organized crime.
Tajikistan believes that the SCO member states should not only preserve the traditions of good-
neighbourliness, but also find new optimal ways to solve existing or emerging problems of a socio-
economic nature.
To date, our countries have achieved positive results in all these areas. However, in a rapidly
changing world, we should not stop there, but move forward and solve topical issues of a political,
economic and social nature. Together we should strive to ensure security in the region and the
peaceful coexistence of all countries of the world.
In 2020, the presidency of the Organization handed by the Russian Federation to the Republic of
Tajikistan. Accordingly, the Jubilee Summit of the Heads of the SCO States will be held in Dushanbe
on 16-17 September 2021. This is very significant since the initial decision to establish the SCO was
taken in the capital of our country.
We are confident that after celebrating its anniversary, the SCO will continue to be an active
structure, an effective platform for exchanging views, developing common positions and agreeing
on various points of view, and will also improve its policy following the demands of the times.
The SCO’s activities fully comply with the basic principles of the foreign policy strategy of our
state. We are interested in further strengthening its role in solving the key tasks of strengthening
peace and security, expanding trade, economic, cultural and humanitarian ties.
In conclusion, I would like to note that from the very beginning of its foundation, The SCO has
been striving to establish fair international relations. Twenty years of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization’s activity, which coincided with a very difficult period in international relations, have
shown that the Organization has become a real force in the arena of global politics. The SCO
member states have achieved a high degree of cooperation and trust in resolving the issues of policy,
economy and security. Annual meetings at different levels not only provide an opportunity to a
timely solution of urgent problems, but also provide quick responses in the rapidly changing world.
All these indicate that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, at the origin of which was also our
State, is indeed a very promising structure both in the regional and the global scale.
(Source: Tajik National University)

SAARC AS A REGIONAL PLATFORM

Prospects and potentials for members including Nepal
MD Pathik Hasan
The official journey of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) started
in 1985 when seven states namely India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and the
Maldives formed this regional platform. Later in 2007, Afghanistan joined SAARC. Sri Lanka and
the Maldives are island states among the eight SAARC members. On the other hand, Nepal, Bhutan
and Afghanistan are landlocked countries.
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Realising that the unprecedented progress that other regions of the world have made by
increasing regional communication and cooperation, the same development of this region is possible
if the communication and cooperation between the states in this region can be increased to the
desired level.
Comparing SAARC with other blocs
The EU, ASEAN, GCC and other regional blocs have achieved prosperity by joining the
regional alliances. Citizens of these regional alliances excluding some member states are not
required to obtain visas if they wish to travel from one allied country to another. Citizens of these
regions can travel from one country to another by road, rail, sea or air without any hindrance in
their respective territories. Even citizens of these regions can travel from one country to another in
private cars. These regional alliances give more importance to regional trade in the development of
their respective regions. It accelerated the development of these regions to increase regional trade.
After the establishment of SAARC, it was hoped that citizens of one country would be able to
travel to another without a visa. One country would provide transit facilities to another country as
required, including moving from one country to another by private car. But, that goal has not yet
been achieved. And, the prospect of achieving that in the near future is not very bright.
The main objective of establishing SAARC was to make the region one of the most prosperous
in the world by enhancing regional connectivity and cooperation. But, almost 30 years after the
establishment, it is clear that there is still a long way to go to achieve that goal.
India is the largest of the SAARC countries in terms of size and population. The second place
belongs to Pakistan. Before the establishment of SAARC, India and Pakistan were engaged in three
all-out wars. The state of Bangladesh was born in 1971 in Pakistan through a hardcore struggle.
Perhaps, this background has also blocked the region to move ahead as other blocs.
Capitalising on available resources
The SAARC region is home to more than a quarter of the world’s population. This region is the
most populous region in the world. In recent times, the countries of the region have made great
strides in agriculture. While the industrial development of the region is promising, there is a need to
harness the potential for further development along the way. The scope of regional trade between
SAARC countries is still limited. If this scope is expanded, the SAARC member states will be able to
achieve unprecedented development within their own borders.
Among the SAARC countries, Nepal and Bhutan are bounded on the east, west and south by
India. Although the two states are bordered by China on the north side, their entire border is
rugged. So, communication in that direction is very impenetrable. Nepal and Bhutan are completely
dependent on India for foreign trade. Although these two countries have long demanded transit
facilities from the regional structure of SAARC through the two seaports of Chittagong and Mongla
in Bangladesh, the slow pace of implementation has tarnished the spirit of SAARC.
The seven states of eastern India are called the Seven Sisters. As these seven states are
surrounded by other states, these states maintain communication with the mainland of India
through a narrow route called the Chicken Neck Corridor. Communication through this route is
time-consuming and expensive. India is interested in establishing transit by road, rail and
waterways with these seven states through Bangladesh. Although the transit is open by water, it is
not fruitful throughout the year due to the low navigability of the rivers in different places.
On the other hand, Bangladesh is on the way to develop the infrastructure required for transit
by road and rail for the usage of transit. Bangladesh would like to be a transit hub between South
Asia and South-East Asia. Bangladesh is focusing on regional connectivity more. Bangladeshi Prime
Minister Sheikh Hasina is liberal in this regard. She always urges regional countries to be connected.
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She wants to make the way for Nepal and Bhutan for the usage of Bangladeshi seaports such as
Chattogram, Mangla, Payra ports and Saidpur airport in Nilphamari.
Immediate concerns
We know the Afghan Crisis. A platform of regional countries like SAARC is needed to address
such problems. But now, SAARC is inactive due to the Indo-Pak dispute. Pakistan and India should
work together to revive SAARC for the maximisation of regional interests.
Meanwhile, 54 common rivers flowing through India have fallen into the Bay of Bengal through
Bangladesh. By unilaterally withdrawing water from most of these rivers upstream, India is using it to
maintain the navigability of inland rivers, including hydropower generation and irrigation in
agriculture. Bangladesh has faced an unfavourable situation due to the unilateral withdrawal of water
by India and the consciousness of SAARC never allows one neighbouring state to create an
unfavourable environment for another neighbour. India should work together with Bangladesh in
regard to better regional benefits. India should complete a fair Teesta agreement with Bangladesh soon
to maximise the mutual benefit. As a big fish in this region, it has some accountability towards others.
Disregarding and ignoring the spirit of SAARC as other SAARC member states are smaller than
it, India has always shown a great vicious attitude towards other SAARC member states. Due to this
behaviour of India, SAARC is failing to reach its goal on the one hand and the political stability of
other SAARC member states is also being endangered on the other hand.
Although India has road and rail links with Bangladesh and Pakistan, trade is being conducted
through transhipment due to the lack of transit facilities. Communication is not very easy as the
citizens of these three countries also need a visa to communicate. It is as easy as possible for an
Indian citizen to travel to these two countries by obtaining a visa from Bangladesh and Pakistan; it is
not easy for the citizens of these two countries to travel to that country by getting an Indian visa.
At present, the trade between Nepal and Bhutan with Bangladesh is being handled through
transhipment in the absence of transit. As a result, the import and export expenditure of both the
states is increasing.
India’s economy is growing rapidly. Bangladesh’s economy is also booming day by day.
Besides, the economies of all other countries in South Asia are also developing. Under the scope of
regional cooperation, the following provisions should be introduced to reap benefits from this
platform:
Transit facilities between SAARC countries are opened
The visa system is abolished
The currency of one country is easily exchanged in another country or common currency is
introduced
Travel facility from one country to another in a private car is introduced
The flow of electricity, gas, oil and water from one country to another is made easily available
The same SIM card can be used to talk from one country to another easily and cheaply
The scope of trade is maximised
This requires the SAARC countries to show the highest level of friendship and harmony
towards each other and to make the best use of opportunities and cooperation.
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UN DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM REFORM

5 key ideas and 5 questions
Sarah Cliffe (Director, NYU’s Center on International Cooperation)
On 30th June the Secretary-General released his report on UN Development System reform. As
a candidate, António Guterres signaled his determination to reform the system: this is the first of a
series of ideas expected on development, on peace and security and on management systems. How
does it stack up to expectations?
The brevity and clarity of this report is extremely welcome. It should help foster a good
strategic discussion amongst member states on a subject that is often deemed too complex to build
clear political momentum. There are five big ideas in the report that deserve attention and support:
Give the system clear leadership globally and at country level. Globally, the report proposes
that the Deputy Secretary-General take over chairmanship of the UN Development Group. At
country level, it proposes establishing clear accountability lines from all country team members to
the Resident Coordinator, and from Resident Coordinators to the Secretary-General. Both measures
delink strategic direction from the fundraising interests of any one UN entity. This addresses a long-
standing critique: that the “first among equals” coordination system created a difficult conflict of
interest for UNDP, requiring it to defend its own role and funding while impartially representing
the interests that the whole UN system serves.
Decrease the number of small separate offices at country level. The fragmentation of the system
at country level has been much criticized – past analyses indicate over 1,400 offices worldwide, with
some costing as much money to maintain as they deliver in program funds. The report is clear on
the intention to “rationalize physical presence by individual entities” – through colocation, virtual
support and shared back office functions.
Strengthen the regional level while eliminating regional duplication. There are overlaps and
disconnects between the regional commissions, regional UN development groups and regional
offices of individual agencies. This misses opportunities to strengthen knowledge-based and
normative work that is sensitive to the needs of each region, and wastes money on multiple regional
presences. The report highlights the need to clarify division of labour and to explore the possibility
of pooling capacities.
System-wide results and predictable multi-year funding. The report argues for predictable,
sustained, flexible, timely and multiyear funding. It recognizes that such funding will need to be
clearly linked to country level results. It proposes a system-wide results framework and working
with Member States on a Funding Compact to achieve this.
Strengthen member state oversight by progressively merging governing boards. A final
problem within the system is the fragmentation of member state governance, with each entity
having its own governing board and different strategic cycles for decision making. The report takes
a sensible step in asking member states to consider the progressive merger of the governing boards
of NY-based funds and programmes.
These are five important ideas. They address most of the major problems long identified in the
UN system, and they chart for the most part a very smart course between ambition and political
feasibility on reform. So what is missing? Here are five areas that will need more work –
unsurprisingly, most involve financial questions:
What’s the “ask” from donors and what results would be achieved from the reforms? The
Funding Compact is a good idea, but the report is ambiguous about whether UN leadership aims to
target more single entity core funds, more pooled cross-agency funding, or both. Previous decades
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when high levels of core funding to single agencies were the norm tended to exacerbate the stove
piping within the UN (if you have your own predictable and generous funding, why cooperate with
others?). This may have mattered less when mandates where less interlinked: by contrast, the
integrated nature of the SDGs would strongly argue for prioritizing more multi-year cross-agency
funding, tied to country-driven results under the SDGs. Putting in place a system to significantly
increase the proportion of funding going to pooled, multi-year activities will require careful work to
understand donor and program country perspectives and to deliver the kind of results linkages that
will attract more predictable funding. It would also be useful to attach some numbers on increased
effectiveness as part of this – how much, for example, will be redirected into program funds from
common back office savings, and when?
How will the RC system be financed, and what is the future role for UNDP? The report notes
that “we are set on a path that would delink the functions of the Resident Coordinators from UNDP
Resident Representatives”, but it also describes UNDP as the “arrowhead of a new generation of
country teams” and states that the Resident Coordinator system function must remain “with UNDP
as its key instrumentality”. Breaking these concepts down into some very practical options for
further consultation on organigrams and financing flows would be a critical part of the preparations
for the December proposals.
What’s the eventual vision for the structures dealing with coordination and policy integration?
The UN system has many fragmented coordination and development policy functions. The report
outlines action on at least six of these: DESA, the CEB, the UNDG, UNDP’s integrator role, the
relationship UNDG-IASC and OCHA-UNDP (even the number of acronyms indicates the degree of
bureaucratic complexity). But these are all described as separate streams of work. As this work gets
started, it may help to think about reaching a simplified end point for coordination and integrated
development policy analysis, with clear accountabilities and economies of scale.
What will the overall package cost the regular budget? The report mentions costs savings in
several places, but it does not specify whether the regular budget of the development pillar will
increase, decrease or stay flat: nor does it give much idea of where reallocation will be needed. Shifts
in the regular budget are always highly political: to reach consensus in the fifth, member states will
likely want to see a full package of administrative and budgetary reforms, including the peace and
security and management tracks. While it is a good idea to debate strategic objectives first, member
states will want much more on costs before they endorse the full package of reforms.
What changes will be needed to open the development system up to partnership? The primary
partnerships referenced are the Global Compact and the UN office for south-south cooperation:
while extremely laudable in their work, it is unclear that either could drive the scale of partnership
transformation needed to implement the SDGs. An interesting strengthening of this point would be
to map more broadly where the UN’s comparative advantage in private sector and civil society
partnerships lies: what, for example, can the UN do to anchor partnerships that governments and
the IFIs cannot achieve alone? The report is also largely silent on complementarity and partnership
between the UN development pillar and its human rights and peace and security pillars. Future
phases of reform - such as the overlapping timing of the December development proposals and the
Sustaining Peace report – should allow for more exploration of these issues.
The report also notes that system-wide outline of functions and capacities will continue to be
updated. This is an excellent exercise to have launched, but some care should be taken with the data
presented. For example, this report shows UNDP spending USD $1.4 billion, UNICEF $879 million
and UNOPs $706 million on SDG16; with 10,447 personnel across the UN system on this goal. This
does not appear to match with other data sources. For instance, UNDP reported to the DAC in 2015
on the cluster of government and civil society (including legal and judicial reform and civilian
peace-building) a total expenditure of $420 million. This cluster is actually much wider than SDG 16
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(it includes for instance projects supporting specific sector ministry capacity, such as energy) yet the
amount reported is 70 per cent less than the Dalberg figures. The report does note that in some cases
(e.g. Afghanistan) the whole country program has been counted as SDG16, although in fact this
would include other SDGs and would therefore greatly overestimate the spend on peace, justice and
inclusive institutions. But these are issues that can easily be addressed in future updates.
In summary, this report does what the first of a series should: it focuses on a few priority issues and
it is clear on strategic directions while allowing space for further consultation on detailed solutions. It
will be important though to recognize that the Secretary-General is already one tenth of the way through
his term: to land these reform directions will need some heavy lifting on the details, and the relationship
with other reform tracks to take advantage of the “honeymoon” period for change.

G7 FLEXES ITS POLITICAL MUSCLES AGAIN

Andrew Hammond (Associate at IDEAS at the London School of Economics)
While the G7 was created in the 1970s to monitor developments in the world economy, last
week’s crisis meeting of Western leaders illustrated the group’s often under-appreciated importance
as an international security linchpin.
The G7 has also shown that other international organizations can still play a significant role in
Afghanistan. To this end, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called a meeting on Monday
of the permanent members of the Security Council, and this year’s G20 chair, Italian Prime Minister
Mario Draghi, is seeking to convene a September summit.
For now, however, it is the G7 powers that are having the most impact in the Afghan chaos. In
the frenzy following the Daesh terrorist attack on Thursday, the group is developing a roadmap for
future engagement with the Taliban, including safe passage for people who want to leave
Afghanistan beyond Tuesday, when the international airlift from Kabul ends.
The chair of this year’s G7, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, said on Friday that the group was
using its now limited leverage — economic, diplomatic and political — with the Taliban to try to
ensure this. According to the UN, up to half a million Afghans may now flee, highlighting the
importance of acquiescence from the Taliban and of neighbouring countries keeping their borders
open.
Perhaps the key remaining point of leverage the G7 has is whether it recognizes the Taliban as the
legitimate administration in Kabul, which will be key if the regime wants to have any significant
engagement with the West. Such diplomatic recognition could unlock billions of dollars in frozen
funds. Recognition is also likely to be made conditional on the country not lurching back into
becoming a breeding ground for terrorism, and on human rights factors such as the education of girls.
It is not the first time geopolitics has dominated G7 meetings this year. At June’s leadership
summit, international security issues framed the agenda, with the group calling out this year’s
significant Russian troop build-up on Ukraine’s border; agreeing tough, further measures on
Myanmar if the military there refuses to change course; and issuing fresh condemnation of human
rights abuses in Xinjiang.
Issues with China and Russia dominated that session, with the leaders discussing how the G7
can forge broader alliances of democracies to combat their disruptive activities. While Moscow is a
big concern here, it is Beijing that is perceived as the stand-out challenge.
This emphasis by the G7 on geopolitics is by no means unusual. The 2017 G7 process, for
instance, was dominated by the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in Manchester, England, and
nuclear tensions on the Korean peninsula.
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The G7’s involvement in this multitude of geopolitical dialogues is not without controversy
given its original macroeconomic mandate. For instance, China has strongly objected to a number of
this year’s G7 communiques amid accusations of “blatantly meddling” in its internal affairs,
including Xinjiang.
Given these controversies, it is sometimes asserted, especially by developing countries, that the
G7 lacks the legitimacy of the UN, or even the G20, to engage in international security issues, and is
a historical anomaly because of the rise of new powers such as China. However, it is not the case
that the international security role of the G7 is new.
An early example of its linchpin function was during the Cold War, when it coordinated
Western strategy toward the Soviet Union. Moreover, following the September 2001 terrorist attacks,
it assumed a key role in the US-led campaign against terrorism, including in Afghanistan.
One of the reasons that geopolitics has become a more salient part of the G7 agenda is that it has
helped to patch over cracks on other issues, from climate change to international trade, especially
during the Trump presidency.
Since Trump left office, the remaining divisions in the West are not as stark or as broad based.
However, the emphasis on international security remains.
(Source: Arab News)
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SDGs
A PRACTICAL WAY TO ACHIEVE SDGS IN PAKISTAN
Dr Shamraiz Ahmad (Assistant Professor at NUST)
When the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were introduced in 2000 by United Nations,
the 7th among the eight main points was purely related to ensuring environmental sustainability.
Since then there has been a lot of hullabaloo about ways to achieve a sustainable environment.
Following MDGs, there were Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) introduced in 2016 in a vow to
transform the world into a better place having 17 main goals. Pakistan in this regard has unanimously
approved SDGs in 2016 as the ‘National Development Agenda’. Ironically, Pakistan has shown a grim
performance in achieving MDGs. Therefore, now for achieving SDGs, it is incumbent to set some
realistic goals and adapt some efficient strategies. SDGs encompass the ‘schemes to achieve a better
and more sustainable future for all. In this regard, the 9th goal of SDGs states that by the year 2030 all
the industries have to foster the process of using technology to achieve ‘sustainable industrialisation’.
The 11th goal focuses on making the cities sustainable as well as safe. The 12th goal of SDG is all about
ensuring sustainable production and consumption patterns.
All of these goals can be achieved by adopting such methodologies in the industries that could
assist in maintaining a sustainable environment and this should not be done in a separate process
but as a part of the whole product lifecycle process. With the contemporary maxim of “doing more
and better with less” in the industrial sector, methodologies like Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) have
been the need of the hour. LCA is involved in the entire life cycle of a product, so as a parallel
process, it can certainly contribute to achieving not only required industrial standards but also
international standards.
Even though we can find plenty of articles and discussions on the suggestions to achieve SDGs
in Pakistan, we are still much far behind in applying them practically. There are two major reasons
for this unfortunate situation in Pakistan. Firstly, achieving SDGs is perceived to be the
responsibility of the government only, and secondly the available literature provides little guidance
on using various tools that may help in achieving these goals in a practical way. To this end, life
cycle assessment methodology is the answer, as it allows an effective comparison of products,
processes and technologies with the help of which the decision-makers can easily decide about the
one with the least impact on the environment. Conducting LCA studies in Pakistan’s industrial
sectors could help to actually target various SDGs that are related to environment, production and
consumption, employment creation and others.
As LCA is there from the very first step of the lifespan of a product till the last, from raw
material extraction to the step of manufacturing following the disposal or recycling stage, therefore
it has a positive chronic impact by mitigating the environmental hazards attached with product
production. As defined and explained by the ISO, the major focus of LCA has always been on the
fact that how a product, process, technology or service is playing its role in global warming,
acidification, resource depletion and others. LCA uses tools like ‘Carbon Footprint Measurement’,
by assisting in assessing the possible impact of utilization of water on the ecosystem and overall
facilitates keeping a track of greenhouse gas emission. Moreover, the notion of ‘handprints’ to
reduce or prevent the negative impacts while creating the positive impacts is another feather in the
cap of LCA. By considering the aforementioned and many such methods and tools LCA provides it
becomes incumbent to instill LCA methodology in the industries of Pakistan to categorically achieve
SDGs goals effectively and efficiently. LCA has been following all the international standards and is
a holistic approach in prominently reducing the environmental impacts of a product. Industries in
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Pakistan are in a dire need of a good data-intensive model that can help in pursuing the
environmental-related goals in SDGs and LCA in this regard has all the key features of a good
environmental management tool.
Pakistan ranks 129 on the SDG index as per the latest studies. We need to be on track and set
some realistic strategies to achieve the 2030 agenda under SDGs for sustainable development.
Pakistan is the 5th most vulnerable state to climate change, it is high time to practically adopt
methodologies that would help control the variables that are provoking climate change and
environmental hazards. Pakistan should set new revolutionary development agenda by keeping the
stats of post-Covid setbacks in the industrial sectors. The policymakers need to redefine the
strategies associated with achieving SDGs, and an array of thoughtful reforms is needed. There must
be interaction among the various goals set under SDGs for instance goal 13 related to climate change
is connecting with the 11th and 12th goal which is related to environmental sustainability. ‘Green
Tax’ culture should be adopted by both the public and private sector of Pakistan so that
methodologies like LCA can easily be implemented in all sectors of industries. The private sectors in
this regard should not take the taxes as a loss of competitiveness. This would rather help the
manufacturers in Pakistan to ensure environmental labeling of the consumer products.
Environmental labeling may be used as a marketing tool for increasing sale both in national and
export market. Thus, the industries in Pakistan must provide synergies among various activities to
foster the process of adapting LCA as an essential part of the life span of a product being
manufactured. In addition, performing and reporting more LCA studies would help develop life
cycle inventory databases that are currently not available in Pakistan. The availability of such
databases at national level for various industrial sectors can be used for various types of analyses
and policy decisions.
In Pakistan, various stakeholders, such as industries, academic researchers and public institutions
should play their active and coordinated role in making LCA an imperative part of the entire process
and target the SDGs in a measurable way. There should be an active ‘Regulatory and Industry led
Policy’ to normalize LCA as part of our industries. With the help of various institutions, like State
Bank, Higher Education Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the Ministry of
Industries and Production, we may assist industries and academic researchers for systematic and
practical implementation of LCA in industries. The academic institutions may provide the technical
services, whereas the government institution may offer the financial support. In this regard, the
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics should bring a ‘regime of mandatory reporting’ for the industries where
all the stats and data should be publically available on the life cycle environmental and sustainability
impacts of their products, processes and technologies. The urgency for environment protection
initiatives under SDGs requires adopting international standards such as LCA in our industries at a
fast pace. Moreover, the tree plantation drive at the government level is an appreciable act, however
this alone is not enough. The problem of environmental degradation is multifaceted that requires to be
confronted by everyone, especially by our industries in order to manage it at the root cause level. In a
nutshell, we can potentially control the environmental impacts by adopting LCA in the industries of
Pakistan which will eventually contribute to achieving SDGs. There must be more practical examples
of implementation of LCA in various industries of Pakistan to have fruitful results. The government of
Pakistan, all the regulatory bodies, and the private sector should do a collective effort to bring forth
LCA as a mandatory part of industries for the better future of our coming generation else they would
not be able to meet their needs from the environment.
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Water
PAKISTAN MAY FACE WATER SCARCITY BY 2040
The country is already water stressed
Zoha Aziz (Freelance columnist)
“There’s plenty of water in the universe without life, but nowhere is there life without water.”–
Sylvia A. Earle, marine biologist
The quotation very beautifully defines the importance of water. As we all know, Pakistan is an
agricultural country and approximately 95% of its water is used for agriculture purposes and 80
percent of our exports are based on the agriculture sector. This means that our economy is also
dependent on the agriculture sector. It provides about 24 percent of the Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) and not only it accounts for half of the employed labour force but also is the leading source of
foreign exchange earnings.
The issue which not only Pakistan. but in upcoming years the whole world, will face, is the
water scarcity issue. This issue will hit harder in Pakistan as being an underdeveloped nation it has a
lower capacity to store water.
It has been predicted that by 2040, Pakistan may face absolute water scarcity. The IMF has
ranked the position of countries facing intense water scarcity and unfortunately Pakistan is in the
third position. The experts also fear that the per capita availability of fresh water in Pakistan will
further decline to 860 cubic meters by 2025.
The availability of fresh water is another worrisome situation faced by Pakistan. Almost 30
million Pakistanis have no access to clean water. In spite of having the world’s largest glaciers, still
Pakistan is among the world’s 36 most water-stressed nations. The reasons for the water crisis in
Pakistan are the increase in population, our outdated and poorly maintained agriculture techniques
which used to waste large quantities of water, mismanagement of the water system and to some
extent climate change.
The natural resources from which our country can acquire water are rainfall, wells, karez,
streams, ponds, lakes, rivers, and glaciers. The artificial resource is the surface water from the
rainfall and rivers. In spite of being blessed with resources both natural and artificial, we were
unable to make enough reservoirs and dams to store this water.
Even if it rains in excess, we cannot save that water and it results in floods which destroy the
crops and cause lots of destruction, just because of not having a proper storage system of water.
Fresh water is a very vital factor for not only our national economic security but also it contributes to
the country’s food security. Pakistan earns its revenues by exporting its major crops. Another
attention seeking issue is that three-quarters of Pakistan is receiving less than 250 millimetres of rain
per year and the result is that droughts are very common in many places.
The problem of saving fresh water can be resolved by the “Drip and Sprinkler technique” which
was tested by Punjab Agriculture Department in Rawalpindi. This technique will not only reduce
country’s worsening freshwater scarcity issue in the agriculture sector but also will strengthen the
Pakistan’s food security and economic problems. Due to runoff from the chemical fertilisers and
pesticides, the agriculture sector is also held responsible for much of the contamination of nation’s
water resources.
The stats shows that 56 percent of people have gained access to clean drinking water, but 30
percent of diseases and 40 percent of the deaths are linked to unclean water, which is the reason for
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a major health hazard. Pakistan also faces the unequal distribution of water. The government needs
to revive the National Water Policy 2018 (NWP), which equally and equitably distribute the water
resources among the provinces. By this policy everyone from richer to poorer can have access to
fresh drinking water. Those women and girls who have the task to fetch water are mostly impacted
by lack of household available water as they have to face numerous issues while fetching water,
such as kidnapping, or being assaulted or even killed. The proper actions needed to be taken to
make a secure environment for them. The heart-breaking thing is that no major Pakistani political
party has been able to tackle these challenges in holistic manner.
“When the well is dry, we know the worth of water.”–Benjamin Franklin
From the above quotation we need to learn that before it gets too late and our wells start to go
dry, we need to take proper actions to deal with the water scarcity issue. The government needs to
reframe the need for water as the basic right of the citizens. We need to make our people aware
through both normal and social media and for that we need to have more water experts on the talk
shows who can make people aware and give them guidance on how every individual can save
water.
Public awareness campaigns regarding water scarcity must be conducted and in our school and
university curriculums, water conservation activities should be added. For the reliance onexternal
water sources, we need to make more investment in clean water projects. To ensure the
overwhelming crisis that occurred during most recent floods should not be repeated again, the solid
waste management should be improved, and urban planning should be done properly by the
provincial governments.
Our policies and legislation should focus on the efforts of low-cost solutions first, then on big
projects like dams. Also, greater efforts are required to control and ultimately regulate so-called
“water tanker mafias”. The government needs to improve the sewage system, and should make
better water distribution infrastructure, while we need to improve our way of farming and use less
chemicals for crops, and we need to bring advanced technology for the water conservation projects
The government needs to make such mechanisms so that we can recycle water as much as we
can. A water education programme should be broadcast daily on TV. We all need to help our
government in battling with this water scarcity issue. It is the duty of every individual to save water
whenever it is possible so that we can take our country out from this crisis situation early before it is
too late. The government’s job is to take action and do proper implementation on this very serious
issue in a timely manner. Not only proper action and implementation but a proper check and
balance is also required.
(Source: Pakistan Today)

ENSURING PAKISTAN’S WATER SECURITY

Dr. Muhammad Ashraf (Chairman, Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources)
Background
With an arid climate, agriculture in Pakistan's Indus Plains — the country's food basket —
cannot be practised without irrigation. The Indus River and its tributaries are the principal source of
water to feed the vast irrigation network that enables crop growth over 8o% of arable lands
sufficient to meet 9o% of the food and fiber requirements of over 2zo million people. Pakistan's
national security is linked with its food security which is directly linked with water security. Any
decline in water quantity and quality will have serious consequential negative impact on the food
security. Due to climatic reasons, the water flowing in the Indus River System is highly skewed with
almost 8o% total annual water flow occurring in three months (July-September) of the monsoon
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season. This necessitates the importance of hai4ng storage reservoirs to meet water shortage during
the remaining period.
Currently, a hot debate is going on in the country on alternate solutions and whether to use large
or small dams to store surplus water during high flow period. Proponents of each are forwarding
their arguments in favour of their points of view. However, in this article effort has been made to
build a case for constructing large dams to create the much-needed storage reservoirs in Pakistan.
It will not be out of place to mention that during the last four decades, no major reservoir has
been built in the country. It has been noticed that whenever any effort is made to construct new
reservoirs, certain lobbies in and outside Pakistan start questioning the construction of dams and
propose some alternate solutions with the intention to shift direction of the policymakers and
planners to their points of view.
Large Dams — The Global Scenario
What constitutes a large dam? One broad definition largely used by the dam industry is “a dam
which is higher than 15 m (taller than a four-story building)”. According to this definition there
are more than 57,000 large dams worldwide. A sub-classification of large dam is a mega dam
with a height exceeding 150 m. There are more than 300 mega dams worldwide.
China leads the construction of large dams with over 40% of the world’s total (Table 1). China’s
Three Gorges Dam is the world’s largest dam (175 m height and 2.4 km length) with 600 km long
reservoir. It reached its final height in 2010 and has hydropower generating capacity of 22,500 MW.
The dam is a symbol of China’s technological and economic progress and has substituted burning of
30 million tons coal every year. The dam has not only controlled the devastating floods but also
improved the navigation. Pakistan has over 150 large dams as per the broad definition (Table 1) but
only two of these can be classified as mega dams – Tarbela and Mangla.
Why We Need Storage Reservoirs?
The primary reason for constructing dams is creating water reservoirs to enable use during low
flow period. Pakistan’s population is increasing at an alarming rate and is expected to exceed 250
million by the year 2025. This will not only exert greater pressure on the already dwindling water
resources but will also present many challenges for food security. The shortfall between water
demand and supply that was 11% in 2004, is estimated to reach 31% by 2025. A water shortfall of
over 30% in 2025 means further storage requirements of the order of 20 MAF (3-4 large dams).
Compared to other countries, the per capita available water storage of Pakistan is also less. The
annual per capita water storage of Australia and the US is over 5000 m3, China 2200 m3, Egypt 2362
m3, Turkey 1402 m3, Iran 492 m3, while in Pakistan it is only 159 m3. Aswan High Dam on Nile
River has a storage of about 1000 days, Colorado and Murray-Darling rivers of 900 days, South
Africa Orange River 500 days, India 320 days and Pakistan only of 30 days. This implies that if due
to any reason, at any point in time the inflows to the dams becomes zero, the completely filled dams
can provide water to meet requirements for only 30 days (one month). However, under similar
conditions, Aswan High Dam can provide water for 1000 days (about three years). The present
water storage capacity of three major reservoirs in Pakistan is only 9% of the average annual inflow,
against the world average of 40% (Briscoe and Qamar, 2006).
Even this storage is at high risk of losing its capacity. Due to lack of watershed management in
the catchments, the soil erosion is taking place at an alarming rate. The Indus River in Pakistan ranks
third in the world with an annual sediment load of 435 million tons. According to an estimate, the
Indus River is adding 500,000 tons of sediment to the Tarbela Reservoir each day, due to which the
dam has already lost about 35% of its reservoir capacity. Therefore, new reservoirs would also be
needed to replenish the depleting reservoirs capacity.
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The other reasons for having large storages are:

▪ Transfer Water from Western to Eastern Rivers. Due to Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) 1960
with India, Pakistan lost three eastern rivers. Almost no water is now flowing into these rivers
except some wastewater. Therefore, Pakistan needs storage to regulate/transfer water from western
rivers to the eastern rivers to keep these rivers alive and to keep the command areas of these rivers
irrigated. Unfortunately, the dam critics have never bothered to look at the dried eastern rivers and
the loss of ecosystems/livelihood of the people residing in these areas.
▪ Transfer Water Between and Within the Years: Pakistan depends on a single source viz.
Indus River where flow variability over the years and within a year is very high (Fig. 1). In such a
case, the construction of storage reservoirs becomes important to ensure water availability through
transfer from the wet season to the dry season and from the wet years to the dry years. Figures 2 and
3 show that about 86% and 14% water is received in Kharif and Rabi seasons, respectively. These
figures also show that Rabi flows are almost consistent whereas there is a lot of variability in Kharif
flows.
▪ Control Floods. One of the major functions of dams and reservoirs is to control floods.
Pakistan has seen some major devastating floods in the past. Floods have become stories of the past
in many countries due to the construction of large dams. A recent example is the Three Gorges Dam
of China that has made devastating floods of the Yangtze River a story of the past. Water stored
during floods helps mitigate any drought or low-flow conditions during the subsequent years and
seasons. Due to inadequate storage, Pakistan has lost more than 90 MAF of water during the floods
of 2010, 2012 and 2014 besides having devastating effects on infrastructure, crops, livestock and
human. If this water had been stored, it could have helped provide water during the low flow
period to various sectors including the Indus delta.
▪ Mitigating Climate Change Impacts. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to impacts of climate
change. According to the Global Climate Risk Index, Pakistan is the world’s 7th most vulnerable
country negatively affected by climate change during the period 1996-2015 and it faces an average
annual loss of USD 3.8 billion (Jan et al., 2017). According to Young et al., (2019), Climate change will
exacerbate water insecurity. The flow variability between and within years may increase, leading to
increased severity of floods and droughts. The greatest challenge from climate change would be
increased water demand, especially for irrigated agriculture. They predicted 5-15% increase in water
demand by 2047 in addition to the increase in demand from a growing population. Therefore, new
reservoirs would be needed to account for anticipated flow variability due to climate change.
▪ Cheap and Clean Hydropower. Cost of energy is the most important input for any
industry. Dams provide, most of the time, uninterrupted the cheapest and cleanest source of energy
as water is a free input for power production. A classic example is China who is providing cheap
energy to its industry due to which cost of production is less as compared to other sources of energy
used as input. This has led China to sell its products at relatively much lower cost thus capturing the
world market. For this reason, the large hydropower projects have already been built in high-income
countries (HICs) with most current development activity in the low-income countries (LICs) (Grigg,
2019). Pakistan’s total installed capacity of energy production is about 18,000 MW whereas a single
dam in China (Three Gorges) has more capacity than Pakistan’s total. Due to lack of reliable and
affordable energy, Pakistan’s industry faces huge challenges and many industries have either been
closed, shifted to other countries or are running below their potential. Energy produced through
other sources such as furnace oil is not only many times costly but is also not environment friendly.
Pakistan has to rely on other countries for the import of furnace oil, which drains precious foreign
exchange reservoirs. Moreover, timely availability of furnace oil is an issue that has been highlighted
in the country during the recent oil crisis.
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Major Concerns Over the Construction of Large Dams

Since the government has started work on the construction of Diamer-Bhasha (8.1 MAF storage
with 4500 MW hydropower) and Mohmand (1.239 MAF storage with 800 MW Hydropower) dams,
there is an ongoing debate among various circles on these dams. Some of the frequently debated
points are:
▪ Is Pakistan really a water scarce country? Dr. William Young, World Bank Lead Water
Resource Specialist wrote a blog in 2017 on “Five myths about water in Pakistan”. In this blog, he
tried to establish that Pakistan is a water-rich country and the only issue is the mismanagement of
water resources, therefore, it does not need any additional reservoir. Dr. Young and his colleagues in
2019 wrote another report on “Pakistan getting more from water” which is an extended and more
elabourative version of his earlier blog. According to them, Pakistan’s challenge is not the
availability of water, but access by and management across various sectors, primarily agriculture,
industries, municipal services, and the environment. Increasing demand by all sectors as a
consequence of population increase, economic growth, and climate change will accentuate the need
for better cross-sectoral management.
There are more than twenty water scarcity indicators being used worldwide. However, the four
indicators that are widely used to define the water scarcity in any country or region are: (i)
Falkenmark Indicator, (ii) Water Vulnerability Index, (iii) IWMI’s Physical and Economic Indicator,
and (iv) Water Poverty Index. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources (PCRWR) has
analyzed in detail these indicators and concluded that if the situation continues i.e., population
keeps on increasing at the same rate and the water resources remain constant, Pakistan will be
touching the absolute water-scarcity line by 2025. This report triggered the nation to think seriously
about water situation in Pakistan.
▪ Water will not be enough to fill dams. One of the arguments is that there is no additional
water to be stored in the dams. The most recent floods of 2010, 2012 and 2014 have already answered
this question. During these floods more than 90 MAF of water was lost besides having devastating
effects on infrastructure, crops, livestock and humans.
▪ Focus/attention on small dams. Another argument is that instead of investing in large
dams, Pakistan should invest in small dams which are easy to construct and there are less
environmental issues related to them. No doubt, small dams have multiple benefits such as they can
be useful in providing irrigation water, recharging aquifers, providing water for domestic and
municipal purposes, controlling erosion, are in close proximity to the point of use, help developing
aquaculture and also provide recreational activities.
However, small dams have certain limitations like they lose 50% of their impoundments to
evaporation due to high surface area to volume ratio. The seepage and percolation losses in these
reservoirs are about 20% of their volume against 5% in large dams. Moreover, their small storage
volume does not allow seasonal or annual carryover, and there are safety problems of handling the
overflow during extreme flood events. The unit cost of water in small dams is 4-7 times higher as
compared to large dams (Keller, 2000). Because of their small storage capacities, they cannot be used
for hydropower production.
The Government of Punjab has constructed about 50 small dams over the last four decades. The
total storage capacity of these dams is 0.1 MAF. Therefore, to replace Diamer-Bhasha Dam (capacity
8.1 MAF), 4200 small dams would be needed. Do we have sites for such a high number of small
dams? Moreover, small dams cannot be constructed on large rivers and large dams cannot be
constructed on small rivers.
Large dams store a huge amount of water that can be used for irrigation, hydropower
generation (the cheapest source of energy), and to meet the environmental flow requirements of the
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river. These dams control floods, provide water throughout the year, and act as a buffer during dry
season and dry years. These can also be constructed using cascade approach where water is recycled
many times before final use. The large dams, however, require huge investment, appropriate sites,
considerable time for feasibility study, completion of the project, face resettlement and
environmental issues, and more importantly require national consensus. Therefore, the small dams
should be constructed wherever possible, however, these cannot be the alternate of large dams.
▪ Focus attention on water conservation. There is an argument that instead of building large
dams, Pakistan should focus more on water resources management as more than 60% of the water is
lost in the system during conveyance and application in the field. It has been reported that by doing
so water close to the storage capacity of Diamer-Bhasha Dam can be saved – a dam equivalent
concept. Factually speaking, water resources management is very important to improve conveyance
efficiency, water productivity and equitable distribution of water. A number of initiatives have
already been taken up by the federal and provincial governments to improve water productivity.
However, there is an argument that the field scale reduction in irrigation application do not translate
into real water savings especially in the areas where deep percolation from the root zone can be
reused as groundwater irrigation and the water savings at the field scale disappear when one goes
up in scale. Therefore, with the management of the available water resources, cropping intensity,
water productivity and net income of the farmers can be improved. However, no additional water
will be available to inject into the system.
▪ Large dams are not economically sustainable. One of the main arguments is that large
dams require huge cost and the developed world is no more focusing on large dams. Why do
developing countries like Pakistan need to invest in large dams? Young et al., (2019) argued that due
to Pakistan’s low economic productivity of water in irrigation and rapid rates of reservoir
sedimentation, it is hard to justify the costs of major new storages. Hydropower generation does
justify new dams, but these could be run-of-the-river facilities (not storage), with lower social and
environmental impacts. However, economic contribution from water-use in hydropower generation
is significant. This is totally a misconception and a misleading statement. As mentioned earlier,
irrigation produces almost 90% of all food and fiber requirements of the country and is ranked
among the top ten countries of the world in the production of all major crops. Besides contributing
19.5% to Pakistan’s GDP, it employs 42% of the labour force, agriculture sector constitutes 64% of
export earnings and provides livelihoods to 62% of the population of the country. For example, 40%
of Pakistan’s population directly or indirectly benefits from Tarbela Dam and the cost of the dam
was recovered within less than ten years after its completion. Through forward and backward
linkages in the economy, the total benefits were probably about twice those of the direct power and
irrigation benefits (Briscoe and Qamar, 2006). As shown in Table 1, the HICs have already installed
large hydropower and irrigation projects and harvested their benefits. The LICs have equal right to
benefit from large dams in the best public interest.
• The Indus Delta will die. There is an apprehension that upstream storage will result in
decreased river water inflow into the Arabian Sea, leading to seawater intrusion into the coastal area
and thus will have an adverse impact on the coastal ecosystem, especially the mangrove ecosystem.
This is an important issue and phenomenon of seawater intrusion needs to be closely monitored so
that the extent and causes of seawater intrusion are thoroughly explored in long term studies. Some
studies suggest that saline water intrusion in coastal area is also connected to rise in the sea level.
Moreover, international experience in controlling the seawater intrusion, particularly in the closed
basins, needs to be studied. This argument is countered by the fact that there are huge variations in
the flow downstream Kotri, ranging from 0.29 MAF to 91.86 MAF (as shown in Fig. 4). Ecosystem
sustainability in the Indus delta requires freshwater availability throughout the year and not only
during 2 to 3 monsoon months. The Independent Panel of Experts in 2005 recommended that a total
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volume of 25 MAF in any 5 years period (an annual equivalent amount of 5 MAF) be released in a
concentrated way as flood flow (Kharif period) is to be adjusted according to the ruling storage in
the reservoirs and the volume discharged in the previous four years. An escapage at Kotri Barrage of
5000 cusecs throughout the year is considered to be required to check seawater intrusion,
accommodate the needs for fisheries and environmental sustainability, and to maintain the river
channel. The implementation of these recommendations is only possible if large storages are built to
regulate water from the high-flow period to the low-flow periods. Pakistan Vision 2025, National
Water Policy, 2018 and Water Apportionment Accord 1991 put great emphasis on the construction
of new reservoirs.
Conclusion
There is no doubt that large dams are a source of lifeline for the water security of the country.
Besides providing the cheapest and clean energy, they help control floods, provide water for
irrigation, regulate flow from high flow to low flow seasons, from a wet year to dry year, and can act
as buffer against the vagaries of climate change. Construction of small dams and water resources
management in all sectors are important; however, they cannot be an alternative to large dams.
(Source: PCRWR)
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Women
PATRIARCHY AND VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN
Dr Rafi Amir-Ud-Din (Assistant Professor at the Department of Economics at COMSATS)
The gruesome murder of Noor Muqaddam, the daughter of a former ambassador for Pakistan,
has left everyone crestfallen. No one would have expected that a bright, smiling face would be
prematurely snuffed out in such extreme anguish and pain. Everyone is looking for answers.
Was this the result of widespread misogyny, a sense of entitlement that comes with wealth and
power, a criminal justice system widely seen as favouring the rich and the powerful, or an instance
of parenting gone terribly wrong?
Many commentators in the mainstream and social media look at the murder of Noor as the
murder of a woman committed by a man. As a corollary they attribute it to the patriarchal nature of
the society. The patriarchy in Pakistan has also come under the spotlight recently in other contexts.
When the supporters and detractors of the Aurat Marches were busy trading barbs, sly innuendos
and loud bickering confused the meaning of the patriarchal system. It may be instructive to take a
detour to understand what patriarchy is and how it is conceived in Pakistan.
Patriarchy is a system of relationships, beliefs and values embedded in political, social, and
economic systems that structure gender inequality between men and women. Attributes seen as
feminine or pertaining to women are undervalued, while attributes regarded as masculine or
pertaining to men are privileged. Patriarchal relations structure both the private and public spheres,
ensuring that men dominate both. Feminist scholarship also theorises linkages between patriarchy
and capitalism, colonialism and nationalism,
In patriarchal societies, women are excluded from political, social, and economic positions of
power; women find themselves paid less for work of equal value; and women are more likely to
experience poverty, less access to resources, goods and services. While individual women may
experience success in various spheres, women as a distinctive social group are generally
disadvantaged in these ways.
The Pakistani characterisation of the patriarchal system is more reductionist. Pakistani scholarship
sees patriarchy in its more obvious symptoms: when a woman introduces herself as “I’m Mrs X”, it is
considered a negation of both her legal and physical identity. When a woman wears a hijab or a niqab
despite greater economic opportunities, it is considered as giving in to patriarchal values.
Of course, Pakistani scholarship on the patriarchal system is not always oversimplified.
However, calls for greater female participation in the public sphere and greater political
participation as an antidote to patriarchy are overshadowed by a realignment in the duties related to
household chores.
The real problem lies in a widespread misunderstanding that a patriarchal system is prevalent
only in Pakistan, or by extension, in societies at the early stages of economic development. It may be
claimed without fear of contradiction that patriarchy rules in almost all societies. An excerpt from
The Guardian says it all, “In Britain, with its equality legislation, two women are killed each week
by a male partner, and the violence begins in girlhood: it was reported last month that one in 16 US
girls was forced into their first experience of sex. The best-paid jobs are mainly held by men; the
unpaid labour mainly falls to women. Globally, 82 percent of ministerial positions are held by men.
Whole fields of expertise are predominantly male. These include physical sciences (and women
garner less recognition for their contributions – they have received just 2.77 percent of the Nobel
prizes for sciences.”
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Granted that patriarchy is prevalent in most of the world, let’s assume that patriarchy shows a
gradient and is found in its more virulent form in certain countries, including Pakistan. Now,
coming back to the fundamental question of the link between the patriarchal system and the higher
risk it poses to women’s lives, the data paints a stunning picture in which the patriarchal system
appears to be better at protecting women’s lives.
When some sections of the media in Pakistan project Noor’s murder as emblematic of the
typical Pakistani patriarchal male attitude, they miss an essential point. According to a United
Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) report, the share of female intentional homicide
victims in Pakistan is 23.3 percent. It means that three men lose their lives on average against every
single case of female homicide.
Western Europe is considered one of the most developed regions in terms of women’s rights
and with patriarchal values mostly subdued. Surprisingly, the share of female intentional homicide
victims in Western Europe is significantly higher than in Pakistan. According to the UNODC report
referred to earlier, the share of a female intentional homicide victims is 35 percent in the
Netherlands, 38 percent in France, 43 percent in Belgium, 47 percent in Germany and 50 percent in
Switzerland. Ironically, these countries are considered to be the safest places for women.
Conversely, the countries characterised as deeply patriarchal have significantly lower female
homicide rates. For example, the share of a female intentional homicide victims is 12 percent in
Egypt, 14 percent in Uganda, 15 percent in Sudan, and 16 percent in Congo.
Surprisingly, the countries which have the highest homicide rates have the lowest rates of female
homicide. For example, in Brazil, 30 persons per 100,000 were killed in 2020, but the female intentional
homicide rate was 10 percent. In Colombia, 26 persons per 100,000 population were killed in 2020, but
only 8 percent of the murdered peoplewere women. In Panama, the homicide rate was ten persons per
100,000 population in 2020, but the share of female homicide victims was only 5 percent.
Based on this data, an unmistakable picture emerges: in relative terms, more women are killed
in the Western democracies with a high level of human and economic development and greater
freedoms for women than in the countries generally dubbed as patriarchal. This implies that holding
patriarchy responsible for violence against women is factually incorrect and detracts from the real
causes of violence against women.
Contracry to the widespread view that honour killing is unique to Pakistan and some
developing countries, violence against women by a family member is significantly higher than
violence against men in many developed countries. A study in the advanced economies found that
in 60 percent of cases of intentional homicide of women, the perpetrator was a relative of a victim.
These advanced economies include Canada, Finland, UK, Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Italy
and Spain.
It is not the least helpful to attribute the violence against women to wrong causes because it
leaves the real issues unaddressed. There is reason to believe that patriarchy was not the real issue in
the sad demise of Noor. For starters, Noor did not face the limitations that are generally associated
with patriarchy. The reasons are not difficult to comprehend.
Family values in Pakistan show a wide diversity and are critically dependent on the educational
and socio-economic status of the household head. The typical Pakistani woman faces several
restrictions on her social interaction, educational trajectory, career path, choice of marriage partner,
reproductive decisions after marriage, and her role in household-level decision-making.
Noor was an educated woman and had lived abroad thanks to her father’s job. Given the
information gleaned from social media, she apparently enjoyed enough freedom to participate in
social gatherings. In a nutshell, she was not the type of personality shaped by the typical patriarchal
values of Pakistan.
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Similarly, if we look at the life circumstances of the perpetrator of the crime, his parents
belonged to notable business families. Since the perpetrator’s mother was also running a business,
we should not expect that the perpetrator’s family espoused a typical Pakistani patriarchal mindset.
So, we have to move beyond a convenient characterisation of patriarchy as the driver of violence
against women.
The state of the rule of law and criminal justice system might have a clue to massive violence in
the society. Global data also points to a strong association between the number of homicide cases
and the criminal justice system’s effectiveness. According to the World Justice Project’s Rule of Law
Index, El Salvador, Honduras, and Venezuela were some of the worst countries in terms of the
criminal justice system’s effectiveness. These three countries ranked 116th, 123rd, and 128th in a
sample of 128 countries, respectively.
Not surprisingly, these are the countries with the highest homicide rates, with El Salvador
having 83 cases of intentional homicide, Honduras 57 cases, and Venezuela 56 cases per 100,000
population in 2020. Conversely, Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Norway, and the Netherlands had
some of the most effective criminal justice systems. The homicide rate in all these countries was less
than 1 per 100,000.
The takeaway is that we should improve our criminal justice system. Contrary to Pakistan’
rebuttal of the American report on Pakistan’s judicial system, Pakistan ranked 120th, 118th and 98th
in a sample of 128 countries in terms of rule of law, civil justice, and criminal justice, respectively.
Overhauling the justice system is the key to reducing violence against women, men and children.
(Source: TNS)

GENDER EQUALITY IN JINNAH’S PAKISTAN

Sana Abid Ansari (Feminist scholar and business and international relations teacher)
The founding father of Pakistan, Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah was a man far ahead of
his time. From the moment the idea of Pakistan was given, he encouraged both men and women to
put in their best efforts to convert this vision into reality. One of his famous sayings related to
women empowerment is: “No nation achieves anything unless the women go side by side with men
-- even to the battlefield.” To him it was clear that if we have to move forward as a nation, men and
women must work together in harmony, each contributing their unique talents for the betterment of
the society. He encouraged his sister Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah to stand by his side in the political
sphere, and even after the creation of Pakistan, she made numerous contributions to the progress of
the nation. While addressing a gathering of women in 1947, Jinnah, in recognition of the efforts
made by women for the freedom said, “Half of Pakistan is yours because you have put in no less
effort to achieve it than the men”.
So while the Quaid-i-Azam encouraged women to step up and play an active role in society, is
the society itself willing to see its women come forward? Since the creation of Pakistan, there have
been numerous hindrances in the path towards equality between the genders. First of all, the Indian
Sub-continent has been a majority Hindu nation for thousands of years. Muslim rule in later
centuries did not do much to sway the archaic beliefs of the population with regards to their views
on women, which are deeply rooted in Hindu beliefs and practices. The male gender is placed at a
high pedestal, with a desire for more sons, while women have been viewed as a burden from the
moment they are born till they are married off. Even after that, they are seen as the property of their
husbands who can treat them as they wish, confining them to the four walls of the house. Although
numerous powerful women have risen in the history of the Sub-continent, a deep-seated hatred
towards them persists in the minds of the people even in this day and age. The Quaid very aptly
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said, “No nation can rise to the height of glory unless your women are side by side with you. We are
victims of evil customs. It is a crime against humanity that our women are shut up within the four
walls of the houses as prisoners. There is no sanction anywhere for the deplorable condition in
which our women have to live.”
Furthermore, the concept of gender equality triggers the emotions of many. Without any real
understanding of what it means or what it would imply for the advancement of the nation, some
people bitterly oppose it. In simple terms, gender equality means equality between the sexes i.e.
both men and women are equal, each of them will play their role in society. It implies that both
genders must have equal access to education, employment and basic rights as citizens of a country.
Gender equality may seem to be a basic or obvious idea to any reasonable individual. Then why
in Pakistan is there so much angst when women demand equal rights? The answer lies in not just
the dominance of Hindu culture in the Sub-continent, but also the misogynistic tendencies that are
rising in our society. Consequently, we as a nation have moved far from Islamic beliefs and morals,
with our level of religiosity restricted to confining women within their homes. Hence, Pakistan
which was created as a haven for the Muslims and religious minorities of the Sub-continent, is
anything but safe for half of its population. Females in Pakistan are seen as inferior beings and are
subjected to mental, physical and sexual violence. Even educated women from privileged
backgrounds feel unsafe stepping out alone into the street for a simple walk.
Keeping in view the vision of the Quaid about women, the Government of Pakistan has passed
numerous laws and legislation to protect the rights of women. But then again this meagre protection
is not enough to ensure complete freedom to Pakistani women. The setbacks are many:
• Most women are not aware in the first place that they have been granted protection by law
and believe they have nowhere to turn to when they face harassment or abuse.
• Laws are often twisted in favour of the powerful. Anyone with wealth or influence can
twist the law in his favour.
• Failure of the Government to pass the Domestic Violence Bill. Countless Pakistani women
and girls face abuse and violence at the hands of the male members of their families
(husbands, fathers, brothers), but under the law, they can do nothing to report the abuse
inflicted on them by those who are supposed to protect them.
• Cases of violence against women/girls are indeed gaining far greater attention due to the
presence of social media. But then again the majority of women in Pakistan, particularly
from rural areas do not have access to the internet or social media.
• Moreover, many victims of violence and abuse are children who are unable to speak up for
their rights.
• Anyone who dares to speak up is seen as “shameless” and the purveyor of dishonour to
the family. Hence victims of abuse rarely speak out and continue to live alongside the
perpetrators of violence.
Because of global initiatives, one of the goals set forth by the United Nations as part of its
Sustainable Development Goals is “to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls”.
It aims at the social and economic uplift of women all over the world. Efforts are being made to
enroll more and more girls into educational institutions, as well as providing women with the means
to achieve financial independence through the establishment of Small and Medium-Sized
Enterprises (SMEs). An increasing number of women are seen in the corporate sector, as well as in
educational and healthcare institutions. However, again this does not come without hindrances.
There are no effective laws against harassment at workplaces, women are getting paid significantly
lower than their male counterparts and not given adequate maternity leave or support. As a result,
many women of childbearing age are forced to stay at home. Moreover, the work that women
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accomplish at home is not considered while calculating the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This
severely undermines and fails to recognise the contributions of women who work tirelessly to
ensure the smooth running of the country at the micro-level.
We as Pakistanis believe ourselves to be the torchbearers of Islam-our country being a mighty
fortress protecting the honour of all Muslims, but we have utterly failed in following the noble
footsteps of the Prophet Muhammad (PBUH).
The women of his time were teachers educating not only other women but men as well, they
were warriors fighting alongside men on the battlefield, they were in charge of government
institutions, and they ran successful businesses and carried out trade in distant lands. The women of
Prophet Muhammad’s (PBUH) era were free to accept or reject marriage proposals without the fear
of any harm being inflicted on them. In every aspect of social, political and economic life they were
considered equal to their male counterparts. Such was the real Riyasat-e-Madina.
Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah said: “Man must be made to understand and made to
feel that woman is his equal and that woman is his friend and comrade and [that] they together can
build up homes, families and the nation.” To bring Quaid’s vision into reality we must take active
steps starting from our own households. The day we begin to treat our sons and daughters equally
and hold them accountable to the same standards of honour will be the day we will truly accomplish
not just gender equality, but the true spirit of freedom set forth by our great leader.