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Xac Suat Thong Ke Ton That Tu Ch4 Thong Ke Mo Ta (Cuuduongthancong - Com)
Xac Suat Thong Ke Ton That Tu Ch4 Thong Ke Mo Ta (Cuuduongthancong - Com)
✣➔ ◆➤♥❣✱ ✷✵✶✾
❈❤"#♥❣ ✹✿ ❚❤)♥❣ ❦➯ ♠- .↔
✶✳ ❚-♥❣ .❤➸ ✈➔ ♠➝✉
❛✳ ❈→❝ ❦❤→✐ ♥✐➺♠✿
✲ ❚!♥❣ $❤➸ ✿ "➟♣ ❤&♣ "♦➔♥ ❜+ ❝→❝ ♣❤➛♥ "/ "❤0♥❣ ♥❤➜" "❤❡♦ ❞➜✉ ❤✐➺✉ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝9✉✳ ❚<♥❣
"❤➸ ❝> "❤➸ ❤?✉ ❤↕♥ ❤♦➦❝ ✈C ❤↕♥✳
✲ ▼➝✉ ✿ ♠+" "➟♣ ❝♦♥ ❜➜" ❦➻ ❝G❛ "<♥❣ "❤➸✳ ❙0 ❧K&♥❣ ♣❤➛♥ "/ ❝G❛ ♥> ✤K&❝ ❣M✐ ❧➔ ❦➼❝❤
"❤KO❝ ❤❛② ❝Q ♠➝✉✳
✲ *❤➨♣ ❧➜② ♠➝✉✿ ✈✐➺❝ ❝❤M♥ ♠+" "➟♣ ❝♦♥ ❜➜" ❦➻ ❝G❛ "<♥❣ "❤➸✳
✲ ▼➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥✿ ♠+" ♠➝✉ ❧➔ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ♥➳✉ ✈✐➺❝ ❝❤M♥ ❝→❝ ❝→ "❤➸ ✤K&❝ "✐➳♥ ❤➔♥❤
✤+❝ ❧➟♣ ✈➔ ❝> ①→❝ U✉➜" ❝❤M♥ ♥❤K ♥❤❛✉✳
❱➲ ♠➦" "♦→♥ ❤M❝✱ ♠+" ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❦➼❝❤ "❤KO❝ n "Y "<♥❣ "❤➸ ❝> ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤0✐ "❤❡♦ ❜✐➳♥
♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝> "❤➸ ①❡♠ ♥❤K ♠+" ❜+ n ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥{X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ✤+❝ ❧➟♣ ✈➔
❝> ❝[♥❣ ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤0✐ ✈O✐ X✳
%-♦♥❣ ✤3 x1 , ..., xm ❧➔ ❝→❝ ❣✐→ %-. ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉ ✈<✐ '( ❧➛♥ ①✉➜% ❤✐➺♥ ❧➔ n1 , ..., nm ✳
✲ ❇↔♥❣ %➛♥ '✉➜%✿
❱➼ ❞: ✶
❑❤↔♦ #→ ✉+✐ ❝.❛ ♠1 ♥❤2♠ ❤3❝ ✈✐➯♥ ❤3❝ ❛♥❤ ✈➠♥ ↕✐ ♠1 8✉♥❣ ➙♠ ♥❣♦↕✐ ♥❣;✱ ❛ ❤✉
✤>?❝ ❜↔♥❣ #A ❧✐➺✉ #❛✉✿
❚✉+✐ ✶✺ ✶✻ ✶✼ ✶✽ ✶✾
❙A ❧>?♥❣ ✹ ✻ ✸ ✺ ✼
❱➼ ❞: ✷
❑❤↔♦ #→ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ♠1 ♥❤2♠ ♥❣>P✐ ✈➲ ✈✐➺❝ ❤3 #R ❞T♥❣ ♣❤>V♥❣ ✐➺♥ ❣➻ ❤>P♥❣ ①✉②➯♥
♥❤➜ ✤➸ ✤3❝ ❜→♦✿ ❜→♦ ❣✐➜②✱ ♠→② ➼♥❤✱ ✤✐➺♥ ❤♦↕✐ ❤❛② ♠→② ➼♥❤ ❜↔♥❣✳ ❑➳ ^✉↔ ✤>?❝ ❤➸
❤✐➺♥ ♥❤> #❛✉✿
_❤>V♥❣ ✐➺♥ ❇→♦ ❣✐➜② ▼→② ➼♥❤ ✣✐➺♥ ❤♦↕✐ ▼→② ➼♥❤ ❜↔♥❣
❙A ❧>?♥❣ ✺ ✷✵ ✺✵ ✶✺
◆❤➟♥ ①➨&✿ ❚❤M♥❣ %❤@K♥❣ ❝→❝ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ ❝❤✐❛ ❝3 ✤N ❞➔✐ ❜➡♥❣ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❚✉② ♥❤✐➯♥✱ %T② %❤✉N❝
✈➔♦ ♠U❝ ✤➼❝❤ ♥❣❤✐➯♥ ❝W✉ ♠➔ %❛ ❝3 %❤➸ ❝3 ♥❤H♥❣ ❝→❝❤ ❝❤✐❛ ❦❤♦↔♥❣ ❦❤→❝ ♥❤❛✉✳
❱➼ ❞# ✹
❑❤↔♦ 9→# #❤K✐ ❣✐❛♥ #(✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✭#➼♥❤ ❜➡♥❣ ❣✐K✮ ♠➔ ♠Q# ♥❣4K✐ #- ✤Q #✉R✐ ✶✺ #(S ❧➯♥ ❞➔♥❤
✤➸ ✤W❝ #✐♥ #X❝ #❤K✐ 9Y ♦♥❧✐♥❡ #(♦♥❣ ♠Q# ♥❣➔② S ♠Q# #❤➔♥❤ ♣❤:✱ 9: ❧✐➺✉ ✤45❝ #❤➸ ❤✐➺♥ S
❜↔♥❣ 9❛✉✿
✣Q #✉R✐ ❬✶✺✱✷✵✮ ❬✷✵✱✸✵✮ ❬✸✵✱✹✵✮ ❬✹✵✱✺✵✮ ≥ 50
❚❤K✐ ❣✐❛♥ #(✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✶✱✶ ✷✱✷ ✷✱✼ ✶✱✾ ✵✱✼
◆❤➟♥ ①➨.✿
✐✮ ❑❤✐ ♠➝✉ ✤=>❝ ❝❤♦ K ❞↕♥❣ ❜↔♥❣ ?➛♥ ()✿
X x1 x2 ✳✳✳ xm
ni n1 n2 ✳✳✳ nm
X a0 − a1 a1 − a2 ✳✳✳ am−1 − am
ni n1 n2 ✳✳✳ nm
✲ ▼♦❞❡ →✸→✶
✲ ❇➟4✴4➢4 4➛♥ `a✿ ❙❤✐❢4 → ❙❊❚❯S → ❘❊S▲❆❨ ✭ ↓✮ → ✹✭❙4❛4✮
✲ ▲➜② x✿ ❙❤✐❢4 → ✶ → ✹ → ✷ → ❂
✲ ▲➜② s✿ ❙❤✐❢4 → ✶ → ✹ → ✹ → ❂
❱➼ ❞# ✺
❈❤✐➲✉ ❝❛♦ ✭♠➨+✮ ❝-❛ ✶✵ 0✐♥❤ ✈✐➯♥ ✤↕✐ ❤6❝✿
1.75, 1.69, 1.70, 1.82, 1.68, 1.72, 1.70, 1.67, 1.71, 1.68
❚➼♥❤ +:✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ♠➝✉✱ ♣❤AB♥❣ 0❛✐ ♠➝✉ ✈➔ ✤D ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ♠➝✉✳
✣→♣ ()✳
x̄ = 1, 712; s2 = 0.00197; s = 0.0444
❱➼ ❞# ✻
❉♦❛♥❤ +❤✉ X ✭+:✐➺✉ ✤J♥❣✮ +:♦♥❣ ✶✵✵ ♥❣➔② ✤AL❝ ❝❤6♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝-❛ ✶ ❝M❛ ❤➔♥❣✿
X ✶✾✱✵ ✲ ✶✾✱✹ ✶✾✱✹ ✲ ✶✾✱✽ ✶✾✱✽ ✲ ✷✵✱✷ ✷✵✱✷ ✲ ✷✵✱✻ ✷✵✱✻ ✲ ✷✶✱✵
ni 15 25 30 20 10
ni 15 25 30 20 10
x̄ = 19, 94; s = 0, 48
✸✳ ❇✐➸✉ ✤:
❛✳ ❇✐➸✉ ✤: ❝❤♦ ❞> ❧✐➺✉ #@✐ #↕❝✿
✲ ❇✐➸✉ ✤5 ❝7 ✿ ✤R -❤A ❣R♠ ❝→❝ ❝S- ❤➻♥❤ ❝❤U ♥❤➟- ❝W ❝❤✐➲✉ ❝❛♦ ❜➡♥❣ -➛♥ () ✭-➛♥ (✉➜-✮
-OM♥❣ 1♥❣✳
✲ ✣❛ ❣✐→❝ ➛♥ +, ✿ ✤O\♥❣ ❣➜♣ ❦❤]❝ ♥)✐ ❝→❝ ✤✐➸♠ (x1 , n1 ), ..., (xk , nk ) -_➯♥ ♠➦- ♣❤➥♥❣✳
✲ ✣❛ ❣✐→❝ ➛♥ +✉➜ ✿ ✤O\♥❣ ❣➜♣ ❦❤]❝ ♥)✐ ❝→❝ ✤✐➸♠ (x1 , f1 ), ..., (xk , fk ) -_➯♥ ♠➦- ♣❤➥♥❣✳
✲ ❇✐➸✉ ✤5 ❤➻♥❤ !>♥✿ ❤➻♥❤ -_b♥ ✤OP❝ ❝❤✐❛ _❛ ❝→❝ ♣❤➛♥ ❝W ❞✐➺♥ -➼❝❤ -➾ ❧➺ ✈d✐ -➛♥ (✉➜- ✭-➛♥
()✮ -OM♥❣ 1♥❣✳
❱➼ ❞E ✼
❈❤♦ ❞B ❧✐➺✉✿
X ✶ ✷ ✸ ✹ ✺
❚➛♥ +, ✶✷ ✸✵ ✷✵ ✶✶ ✼
❱➼ ❞2 ✽
❉2 ❧✐➺✉ ✤67❝ ❦❤↔♦ )→* *; ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❧✐➯♥ *A❝✳ ▼✐➲♥ ❞2 ❧✐➺✉ ✤67❝ ❝❤✐❛ *❤➔♥❤ ✶✵
❦❤♦↔♥❣ ✤➲✉ ♥❤❛✉✳ ❈→❝ *! ❝❤$❝ ✤& ✤67❝ ①➙② ❞M♥❣ ♥❤6 N ❤➻♥❤ )❛✉ ✤➙②✳
✲ ❇✐➸✉ ✤& ①→❝ )✉➜* ❝❤✉➞♥✿ ●✐↔ %& ♠➝✉ %V ❧✐➺✉ ❝E❛ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❧✐➯♥ AM❝ X ✤➣ %➢♣ A❤C
A] A➠♥❣ ❞➛♥✿
x1 ≤ x2 ≤ x3 ≤ ... ≤ xn .
❱;✐ i = 1, 2, ..., n✱ ✤➦A
i − 0.5
zi = Φ−1 ❤❛② Φ(zi ) = (i − 0, 5)/n.
n
❇✐➸✉ ✤% ①→❝ )✉➜+ ❝❤✉➞♥ ❧➔ "➟♣ ❤&♣ ❝→❝ ✤✐➸♠ ❝- ".❛ ✤0 (zi ; xi ), i = 1, 2, ..., n "1➯♥ ❤➺
x = σ̂z + µ̂,
✈R✐ µ̂ = x̄, σ̂ = s ✲ "1✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ✈➔ ✤0 ❧➺❝❤ ❝❤✉➞♥ ♠➝✉ ✤E&❝ "➼♥❤ ❞V❛ "1➯♥ ♠➝✉ ✤➣ ❝❤♦✳
❱➼ ❞# ✾
◗✉❛♥ )→+ ❜✐➸✉ ✤% ①→❝ )✉➜+ ❝❤✉➞♥ )❛✉ ✤➙②✳
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✶✴✷✻
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❇■➎❯ ✣➬ ❳⑩❈ ❙❯❻❚ ❈❍❯❽◆
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
✣;♥❤ ❧= ✷✿ ◆➳✉ {X1 , X2 , ..., Xn } ❧➔ ♠➝✉ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ ❝-❛ ❜✐➳♥ ♥❣➝✉ ♥❤✐➯♥ X ❝0 ♣❤➙♥
♣❤3✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ2 ) 5❤➻✿
(n − 1)S 2 √
∼ χ2n−1 , n(X − µ)/S ∼ Tn−1
σ2
◆❤➟♥ ①➨D✿ ❚:;<♥❣ ❤=♣ ❦❤✐ X ❦❤?♥❣ ❝0 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤3✐ ❝❤✉➞♥✳ ◆➳✉ ❦➼❝❤ 5❤;B❝ ♠➝✉ ❧B♥
✭n > 30✮ 5❤➻ 5❤❡♦ ✤H♥❤ ❧I ❣✐B✐ ❤↕♥ 5:✉♥❣ 5➙♠✿
√
σ2 n(X − µ)
❝0 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤3✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ ✈➔ ❝0 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤3✐ ①➜♣ ①➾ N (0, 1)
X N µ,
n S
❚!♥ ❚❤➜% ❚& ✷✸✴✷✻
❱➼ ❞H ✶✵
❈❤✐➲✉ ❝❛♦ ❝(❛ )❤❛♥❤ ♥✐➯♥ )✉➙♥ )❤❡♦ ❧✉➟) ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤1✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ N (µ; σ2 )✱ ✈5✐ µ = 165✭❝♠✮
✈➔ σ = 5✭❝♠✮✳ ❚➼♥❤ ①→❝ ?✉➜) ❝❤✐➲✉ ❝❛♦ )A✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤ ❝(❛ ✶✻ )❤❛♥❤ ♥✐➯♥ ✤HI❝ ❝❤J♥ ♥❣➝✉
♥❤✐➯♥ ❧5♥ ❤L♥ ✶✻✼ ✭❝♠✮✳
●✐↔✐✳ ●P✐ Xi ❧➔ ❝❤✐➲✉ ❝❛♦ ❝-❛ 5❤❛♥❤ ♥✐➯♥ 5❤R i, i = 1, 16✳
✣➦5 X̄ = (X1 + ... + X16 )/16✳ ❑❤✐ ✤0✱ X̄ ❝W♥❣ ❝0 ♣❤➙♥ ♣❤3✐ ❝❤✉➞♥ ✈B✐ 5:✉♥❣ ❜➻♥❤
µ = 165 ✈➔ ♣❤;X♥❣ Y❛✐ σ 2 /n = 25/16✳
❳→❝ Y✉➜5 ❝➛♥ 5➻♠✿
167 − 165
P (X̄ > 167) = 1 − P (X̄ ≤ 167) = 1 − Φ = 0.0548
5/4
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