MODELOS DINÁMICOS

Mes Datos Demanda Demanda^2

Dec-18 1 142,000 20,164,000,000
Jan-19 2 78,000 6,084,000,000
Feb-19 3 72,000 5,184,000,000
Mar-19 4 31,000 961,000,000
Apr-19 5 151,000 22,801,000,000
May-19 6 143,000 20,449,000,000
Jun-19 7 39,000 1,521,000,000
Jul-19 8 82,000 6,724,000,000
Aug-19 9 135,000 18,225,000,000
Sep-19 10 71,000 5,041,000,000
Oct-19 11 35,000 1,225,000,000
Nov-19 12 82,000 6,724,000,000
Dec-19 13 143,000 20,449,000,000
Jan-20 14 41,000 1,681,000,000
Feb-20 15 78,000 6,084,000,000
Mar-20 16 146,000 21,316,000,000
Apr-20 17 33,000 1,089,000,000
May-20 18 143,000 20,449,000,000
Jun-20 19 33,000 1,089,000,000
Jul-20 20 91,000 8,281,000,000
Aug-20 21 158,000 24,964,000,000
Sep-20 22 41,000 1,681,000,000
Oct-20 23 89,000 7,921,000,000
Nov-20 24 55,000 3,025,000,000
Dec-20 25 129,000 16,641,000,000
Jan-21 26 40,000 1,600,000,000

𝜮 2,281,000 251,373,000,000
 MODELOS DINÁMICOS

REGLA DE PETERSON SILVER 0.26

𝜮 Demanada
5,202,961,000,000
 ALGORITMO
DATOS

Demanda
Demanda # Mes Cantidad
mensual

142,000
1 Dec-18 Q1 220,000
2 Jan-19 78,000
3 Feb-19 72,000
Q2 103,000
4 Mar-19 31,000
5 Apr-19 151,000
6 May-19 143,000 Q3 333,000
7 Jun-19 39,000
8 Jul-19 82,000 Q4 82,000
9 Aug-19 135,000
Q5 206,000
10 Sep-19 71,000
11 Oct-19 35,000 Q6 35,000
12 Nov-19 82,000 Q7 82,000
13 Dec-19 143,000
Q8 184,000
14 Jan-20 41,000
15 Feb-20 78,000 Q9 78,000
16 Mar-20 146,000
Q10 179,000
17 Apr-20 33,000
18 May-20 143,000
Q11 176,000
19 Jun-20 33,000
20 Jul-20 91,000 Q12 91,000
21 Aug-20 158,000
Q13 199,000
22 Sep-20 41,000
23 Oct-20 89,000
Q14 144,000
24 Nov-20 55,000
25 Dec-20 129,000
Q16 169,000
26 Jan-21 40,000
ALGORITMO SILVER -MEAL

m K(m+1)> K(m)

A (Costo de la
1 k1 50 oden de compra)
2 k2 42,145 < 50 k1 $ 50
3 k3 219,617 > 42,145 k2

3 k1 72,000
4 k2 16,765 < 73 k1
5 k3 119,897 16,765 k2

5 k1 151,000
6 k2 77,245 < 151,000 k1
7 k3 79,577 < 77,245 k2
8 k4 126,103 > 79,577 k3

8 k1 82,000
9 k2 72,925 > 82,000 k1

9 k1 135,000
10 k2 38,365 < 135,000 k1
11 k3 50,777 > 38,365 k2

11 k1 35,000
12 k2 44,305 > 35,000 k1

12 k1 82,000
13 k2 77,245 > 82,000 k1

13 k1 143,000
14 k2 22,165 < 143,000 k1
15 k3 70,937 > 22,165 k2

15 k1 78,000
16 k2 78,865 > 78,000 k1

16 k1 146,000
17 k2 17,845 < 146,000 k1
18 k3 114,857 > 17,845 k2
18 k1 143,000
19 k2 17,845 < 143,000 k1
20 k3 77,417 > 17,845 k2

20 k1 91,000
21 k2 85,345 > 91,000 k1

21 k1 158,000
22 k2 22,165 < 158,000 k1
23 k3 78,857 > 22,165 k2

23 k1 89,000
24 k2 29,725 < 89,000 k1
25 k3 169,045 > 29,725 k2

25 k1 129,000
26 k2 21,625 < 129,000 k1
H (Costo de manteniento
del inventario por periodo)
$ 1.08
 COSTO UNITARIO MÍNIMO

Q (x) Demanda # k(x) Viabilidad

Demanda por
Demanda # Mes 1 K1 0.3521126761
unidad Q1 No es viable, K2 > K1
1 Dec-18 142,000 2 K2 0.3831363636
2 Jan-19 78,000
3 Feb-19 72,000 2 K1 0.0006410256 No es viable, K2 > K1
Q2
4 Mar-19 31,000 3 K2 0.5187333333
5 Apr-19 151,000
6 May-19 143,000 Q3 3 K1 0.0006944444
7 Jun-19 39,000 4 K2 0.3255339806 No es viable, K2 > K1
8 Jul-19 82,000
9 Aug-19 135,000 4 K1 0.0016129032
10 Sep-19 71,000 Q4 5 K2 0.8963186813 Es viable, K2 < K1
11 Oct-19 35,000 6 K3 1.4523384615 No es viable, K3 > K2
12 Nov-19 82,000
13 Dec-19 143,000 6 K1 0.0003496503
Q5
14 Jan-20 41,000 7 k2 0.2317032967 No es viable, K2 > K1
15 Feb-20 78,000
16 Mar-20 146,000 7 K1 0.0012820513
17 Apr-20 33,000 Q6 8 K2 0.7323140496 Es viable, K2 < K1
18 May-20 143,000 9 K3 1.4851953125 No es viable, K3 > K2
19 Jun-20 33,000
20 Jul-20 91,000 9 K1 0.0003703704
Q7
21 Aug-20 158,000 10 K2 0.3724757282 No es viable, K2 > K1
22 Sep-20 41,000
23 Oct-20 89,000 10 K1 0.0007042254
Q7
24 Nov-20 55,000 11 K2 0.3306603774 No es viable, K2 > K1
25 Dec-20 129,000
26 Jan-21 40,000 11 K1 0.0014285714
Q8 12 K2 0.7573504274 Es viable, K2 < K1
13 K3 1.5288076923 No es viable, K3 > K2

13 K1 0.0003496503
Q9
14 K2 0.240923913 No es viable, K2 > K1

14 K1 0.0012195122
Q10 15 K2 0.7083193277 Es viable, K2 < K1
16 K3 1.5081132075 No es viable, K3 > K2

16 K1 0.0003424658
Q11
17 K2 0.1993854749 No es viable, K2 > K1

17 K1 0.0015151515
Q12 18 K2 0.8777840909 Es viable, K2 < K1
19 K3 1.0802392344 No es viable, K3 > K2

19 K1 0.0015151515
Q13 20 K2 0.792983871 Es viable, K2 < K1
21 K3 1.5589007092 No es viable, K3 > K2

21 K1 0.0003164557
Q14
22 K2 0.2227638191 No es viable, K2 > K1

22 K1 0.0012195122
Q15 23 K2 0.7397692308 Es viable, K2 < K1
24 K3 1.162 No es viable, K3 > K2

24 K1 0.0009090909
Q16
25 K2 0.7574456522 No es viable, K2 > K1

25 K1 0.0003875969
Q17
26 K2 0.2559171598 No es viable, K2 > K1
Q18 26
O MÍNIMO
Cantidad A (Costo de la H (Costo de manteniento del
total a oden de compra) inventario por periodo)
pedir Q

50 $ 1.08
142,000

78,000

72,000

182,000

143,000

121,000

135,000

71,000
117,000

143,000

119,000

146,000

176,000

124,000

158,000

130,000

55,000

129,000
40,000