See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/273369765

Application of Soft Computing for Prediction of Pavement Condition Index

Article  in  Journal of Transportation Engineering · December 2012

DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE.1943-5436.0000454

CITATIONS READS
62 4,228

4 authors:

Habib Shahnazari Mohammad Amin Tutunchian

63 PUBLICATIONS   881 CITATIONS   
Payame Noor University
20 PUBLICATIONS   301 CITATIONS   
SEE PROFILE
SEE PROFILE

Mehdi Mashayekhi Amir A. Amini

North Carolina State University Iran University of Science and Technology
7 PUBLICATIONS   131 CITATIONS    11 PUBLICATIONS   131 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Effect of Texture of Carbonate Soils in South Iran Coasts on Aggregate Crushing View project

Post-cyclic volumetric strain of calcareous sands of Hormuz Island View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Amir A. Amini on 28 August 2015.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

 Application of Soft Computing for Prediction
of Pavement Condition Index
Habib Shahnazari1; Mohammad A. Tutunchian2; Mehdi Mashayekhi3; and Amir A. Amini4

Abstract: The pavement condition index (PCI) is a widely used numerical index for the evaluation of the structural integrity and operational
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

condition of pavements. Estimation of the PCI is based on the results of a visual inspection in which the type, severity, and quantity of
distresses are identified. The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative approach for forecasting the PCI using optimization techniques,
including artificial neural networks (ANN) and genetic programming (GP). The proposed soft computing method can reliably estimate the
PCI and can be used in a pavement management system (PMS) using simple and accessible spreadsheet softwares. A database composed of
the PCI results of more than 1,250 km of highways in Iran was used to develop the models. The results showed that the ANN- and GP-based
projected values are in good agreement with the field-measured data. In addition, the ANN-based model was more precise than the GP-based
model. For more straightforward applications, a computer program was developed based on the results obtained. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)TE
.1943-5436.0000454. © 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.
CE Database subject headings: Pavements; Computer programming; Neural networks; Computation; Predictions.
Author keywords: Pavement condition index; Genetic programming; Neural networks; Soft computing.

Introduction the management of pavement maintenance and rehabilitation) sys-

Pavement is an important part of transportation infrastructures. It
should be constructed to withstand the traffic loads expected for
a specific design period. Because of the importance of pavement
for safe and reliable transportation and the need for periodic main-
tenance and repair treatments, the assessment of pavement condi-
tions has become an integral part of the pavement management
system (PMS). There are currently several indices that are used
to describe pavement conditions, such as the pavement condition
index (PCI), present serviceability index (PSI), international rough-
ness index (IRI), and present serviceability rating (PSR). All of
these indices convert pavement distresses to a more practical index
(Huang 2004).
The PCI is one of the most common indices for pavement evalu-
ation based on visual observation and inspection and was devel-
oped by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the PAVER
(PAVER is an acronym that was selected since the system is for
1
Associate Professor, School of Civil Engineering, Iran Univ. of Science
and Technology (IUST), P.O. Box 16765-163, Narmak, Tehran, Iran
(corresponding author). E-mail: hshahnazari@iust.ac.ir
2
Ph.D. Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, Iran Univ. of Science
and Technology (IUST), P.O. Box 16765-163, Narmak, Tehran, Iran.
E-mail: amin@iust.ac.ir
3 5.
Ph.D. Candidate, Dept. of Civil, Construction, and Environmental
Engineering, North Carolina State Univ., Campus Box 7908, Raleigh,
NC 27695-7908; formerly, M.Sc. Graduate Student, School of Civil
Engineering, Iran Univ. of Science and Technology (IUST), P.O. Box
1836738335, Narmak, Tehran, Iran. E-mail: mmashay2@ncsu.edu
4 exactly 2.
Ph.D. Candidate, School of Civil Engineering, Iran Univ. of Science
and Technology (IUST), P.O. Box 1655749713, Narmak, Tehran, Iran.
E-mail: aamini@iust.ac.ir
Note. This manuscript was submitted on May 7, 2011; approved on
May 16, 2012; published online on May 21, 2012. Discussion period open
until May 1, 2013; separate discussions must be submitted for individual
papers. This paper is part of the Journal of Transportation Engineering,
Vol. 138, No. 12, December 1, 2012. © ASCE, ISSN 0733-947X/2012/12-
1495-1506/$25.00.
tem (Shahin and Kohn 1981). In the PCI calculation procedure,
different types of distress with various severities are incorporated
into a single PCI value. Each distress that causes the pavement to
deteriorate has a unit of length or area with a different severity
(i.e., low, medium, and high). The PCI ranges from 100 to 0, in
which 100 is newly constructed pavement and 0 is the worst
condition possible. Fig. 1 shows the rating scale of the PCI.
According to Shahin and Kohn (1981), the calculation procedure
for asphalt concrete (AC) roads can be summarized in the follow-
ing major steps:
1. Determination of pavement distresses and their severity, which
can be low, medium, or high.
2. Determination of deduct values from the deduct value curves
for each distress. Fig. 2 shows a typical deduct value calcula-
tion curve.
3. Reduction of the number of deduct values from the maximum
allowable number using Eq. (1):
mi ¼ 1 þ ð9=98Þð100 − HDVÞ (1)
where mi = maximum allowable number of deduct values and
HDV = greatest individual deduct value.
4. Determination of q, the number of deduct values greater
than 2.
Determination of the total deduct value (TDV), which is the
summation of all deduct values.
6. Determination of the corrected deduct value (CDV) based on
the correction curves using q and the TDV.
7. Reduction of the smallest deduct value greater than 2 to
8. Repetition of steps 4 through 7 until q is equal to 1.
9. Determination of the maximum CDV (CDVmax ) and compu-
tation of the PCI using Eq. (2):
PCI ¼ 100 − CDVmax (2)
The PCI calculation procedure for roads and parking lots is
fully described in the AST Materials international standards

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1495

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.


Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 1. PCI rating scale (data from Shahin 2005)
Fig. 2. Typical deduct value curve (data from Shahin 2005)
(ASTM 2003, D6433-03). Although manual PCI calculation may
not be a tedious operation for a single sample unit, a database gath-
ered from a survey is generally quite large, and the PCI calculation
process for a database can be time-consuming. MicroPAVER, a
commonly used software developed by the U.S. Army Corps of
Engineers, can automatically calculate the PCI value once the
distress information is entered into the program (Shahin 2005).
Because of recent developments in computational software and
hardware, several alternative computer-aided data mining tech-
niques that may be applicable to PCI calculation have been pro-
posed for solving various problems. Pattern recognition systems,
for instance, learn adaptively from experiences and extract various
discriminators. Artificial neural networks (ANN), the most widely
used pattern recognition and modeling systems, have been utilized
to solve various problems in modern pavement engineering. There
has been a wide variety of studies with the specific objective
of applying ANNs in pavement engineering (e.g., Xiao and
Amirkhanian 2009; Tapkın et al. 2009; Ozsahin and Oruc 2008;
Saltan and Terzi 2008; Saltan and Sezgin 2007).
Soft computing applications are continually being developed
as a set of machine learning methods in various engineering
fields. Genetic programming (GP), which is generally known as
1496 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012
J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.
a supervised machine learning technique, is another alternative
behavior modeling technique (Alavi et al. 2011). Genetic program-
ming is a powerful approach for modeling the nonlinear behavior
of engineering problems. In contrast to ANNs, GP is capable of
generating mathematical prediction equations.
In this study, the ANN and GP techniques were utilized to fore-
cast the PCI. The models developed were trained based on a large
database of information gathered regarding the road network of
Iran. The model inputs are parameters that represent the type, se-
verity, and quantity of distresses, and the output is the estimated
PCI. Statistical analyses that consider three statistical performance
criteria demonstrate the high precision of the models developed.
A comparative parametric study of the models was also conducted
to investigate the magnitude of each input parameter’s effect on the
PCI. A parametric study and the PCI data for another 10-km stretch
of road were used to verify the robustness of the proposed models.
In addition, a computer program was developed in the visual basic
(VB) programming language using the ANN- and GP-based mod-
els for routine use of the models in practice.
MicroPAVER is the original software for the calculation of the
PCI. Usage of the proposed soft computing procedure may have
some advantages over MicroPAVER—no particular software or
hardware is necessary to carry out the calculations. In other words,
a general spreadsheet computer program such as Microsoft Excel
can be used for the purpose of PCI calculation. In addition, import
and export process of data sets and databases can be accomplished
easier. For instance, if digital image processing software is applied
to evaluate pavement distresses, the data can then be imported
into Microsoft Excel for the purpose of PCI calculation. Further-
more, in some regions (like the situation in Iran) where the
MicroPAVER is not easily accessible and information of dis-
tresses are in the .xls/.xlsx format (the native format of Microsoft
Excel), using the proposed method can facilitate the calculation
process and eliminate the need for data reentry. Finally, for some
other situations in which having a faster and more accessible al-
ternative is preferred, the soft computing PCI calculation method
can be an option.
Background
In addition to the current PCI calculation method, some attempts
have been made to predict the PCI using expert system modeling
and soft computing techniques. Schwartz (1993) utilized ANNs to
predict the PCI. The predictive model inputs were the pavement
age, traffic, and subgrade strength. The ANN-based model devel-
oped by Schwartz (1993) is not widely applicable. Despite the
acceptable performance of ANNs, they usually do not lead to a
specific mathematical function to calculate the outcome using the
input values.
The South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) used
expert models to develop PCI-predictive models by considering
the opinions of experienced engineers who were familiar with
the deterioration patterns of different types of pavements (Yang
2004). In their effort, a scaling system was applied to develop
the deduct values associated with the severity and the extent asso-
ciated with each of the defined distress types in the initial step.
Then practiced engineers were asked to estimate the pavement
age based on the severity and extent of the different distresses.
A simple regression analysis was conducted to determine the
coefficients for the correlated model, which could take the
following form:
PCI ¼ a þ btc (3)
 Table 1. Different Types of Distresses and Severity Levels
Alligator Bleeding Block Edge Longitudinal Patching Pothole Transverse
Severity cracking (m2 ) (m2 ) cracking (m2 ) cracking (m) cracking (m) (m2 ) (numbers) cracking (m)
Low x1 x4 x7 x10 x12 x15 x18 x19
Medium x2 x5 x8 x11 x13 x16 — x20
High x3 x6 x9 — x14 x17 — x21

where a = maximum value of the index; b = slope of deterioration
curve; c = exponent coefficient; and t = pavement age. However,
using this approach to calculate the PCI may be dangerous when
the experts are actually wrong.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 3. In this figure, alligator, transverse, and longitudinal crack-
ing are predominant distress types. The PCI values for 12,487
pavement segments were used to develop the model. The frequen-
cies of the PCI values are shown in Fig. 4. Most of the cases were

in the range of 80 to 100, which according to Fig. 1, can be

Research Methodology
The current project is based on the field database information gath-
ered from various roads in Iran. The database information was
collected using an automated car. Table 1 shows the different types
of distresses and severity levels. These distresses represent the
common types of pavement deterioration in Iran. However, there
are some other types of distresses that were not considered in
this study. Two examples of common distresses are shown in
classified as satisfactory or good. The process of ANN- and
GP-based modeling is illustrated in the typical flowchart shown
in Fig. 5.
Shahin et al. (2004) studied the effects of data division methods
on the performance of numerical symbolic regression models. For
data division of this database, a statistically consistent method was
used, as described by Shahin et al. (2004). In this study, the data-
base was divided into training and testing subsets in such a way to
ensure that the standard deviations of the different variables in each
subset were as close as possible. A trial-and-error process was used
to achieve this goal. Finally, 80% of the data were allocated to the
training subset, and the remaining 20% were used for testing. The
statistical characteristics of the training and testing subsets are sum-
marized in Table 2. The PCI calculated using this method is referred
to as the measured PCI in this paper.

Artificial Neural Networks

Artificial neural networks are nonlinear mapping structures that

form a complex mathematical model inspired by biological neural
networks. ANN-based modeling is a powerful approach for solving
pattern recognition and data mining engineering problems. An ar-
Fig. 3. Captured photos of pavement distresses (enhanced for better
tificial neural network is composed of a number of artificial neu-
view): (a) alligator cracking; (b) combination of transverse, longitudi-
rons called processing elements (PE)—units or nodes. The function
nal, and alligator cracking
of the ANN is largely determined by the connection among these

Fig. 4. Frequency of cases versus PCI ranges

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1497

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

 elements. An ANN can be trained to perform a particular prede-
fined function by adjusting the connection values (i.e., weights)
among the elements. The ANN modeling procedure is presented
graphically in Fig. 6.
In recent years, ANNs have been used in a number of pavement
engineering problems, including the prediction of pavement layer
moduli (Rakesh et al. 2006), the modeling of the pavement serv-
iceability ratio (Terzi 2007), the estimation of the stiffness behavior
of rubberized asphalt concrete containing reclaimed asphalt pave-
ment (RAP) (Xiao and Amirkhanian 2009), and the back calcula-
tion of the dynamic modulus from the resilient modulus (Lacroix
et al. 2008). The application of ANNs to these problems has
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

resulted in some degree of success.

The network used in this study was a feed forward network.
This network was trained with the backpropagation method, which
is a supervised learning approach. A three-layer (excluding the in-
put layer) network with a log-sigmoid transfer function was used in
the hidden and output layers. Fig. 7 shows the architecture of the
network. This architecture consists of an input layer, two hidden
layers, and an output layer. The output layer has one neuron,
and the first and second hidden layers have 22 and 13 neurons,
respectively. The performance of the model was evaluated in terms
of the mean square error (MSE). To normalize the output (PCI), its
value was divided by 100. The specifications of the ANN architec-
ture are presented in Table 3.

Genetic Programming

Genetic programming is one of the recently developed evolutionary

Fig. 5. Research methodology flowchart
approaches and has been applied to engineering problems. The

Table 2. Statistical Characteristics of the Database

Subset Statistical criterion x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11
Train Max 255.1 412.4 367 360 309 122 373 401 366 59.2 116
Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mean 4.87 8.74 8.64 10 1.31 0.08 5.51 6.03 2.46 0.31 0.49
S.D. 15.4 29.5 38.3 40.7 12.4 2.24 27 31.2 23.3 2.27 4.5
Test Max 278 339.7 412 318 230 116 336 351 367 53.3 81.8
Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mean 4.42 8.50 8.58 10.7 0.98 0.07 5.26 5.74 2.55 0.44 0.62
S.D. 14.23 28.01 38.8 42.1 9.94 2.50 26.7 29 23.6 2.93 4.67
Subset Statistical criterion x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20 x21 PCI
Train Max 158.3 101.9 54.6 187 125 49 1.44 153.3 67.4 27.3 100
Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Mean 7.7 2.12 0.11 1.35 0.43 0.05 0.00 9.52 2.18 0.06 78.5
S.D. 15.17 6.91 1.39 9.31 3.74 0.90 0.03 15.86 5.75 0.68 26.2
Test Max 137.73 84.40 91.8 136 187 97.6 0.40 127.6 58.9 7.36 100
Min 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.79
Mean 7.49 2.33 0.14 0.99 0.50 0.11 0.00 9.67 2.41 0.05 78.5
S.D. 14.81 7.43 2.24 7.29 4.97 2.25 0.02 15.9 6.08 0.42 26.2
Note: S.D. = standard deviation.

Fig. 6. Main ANN modeling procedure

1498 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 7. Architecture of the network
Table 3. Specifications of Artificial Neural Network Model
Network specification Value
Number of layers 3 generation; and M = maximum number of generations).
Number of hidden layers 2
Hidden layer #1 transfer function Log-sigmoid (logsig)
Number of neurons in hidden layer #1 22
Hidden layer #2 transfer function Log-sigmoid (logsig)
Number of neurons in hidden layer #2 13
Output layer transfer function Log-sigmoid (logsig)
Number of neurons in output layer 1 called offspring, from two other individuals as parents. Parents
Training algorithm Resilient backpropagation
(trainrp)
Performance measure MSE
prediction of foundation settlements (Rezania and Javadi 2007),
modeling of the stress-strain behavior of sand under cyclic loading
(Shahnazari et al. 2010), and the prediction of the soil-water char-
acteristic curve (Johari et al. 2006) are all examples of GP appli-
cations in civil engineering. As a machine-learning approach, GP
can be used as a mathematical tool for symbolic regression and
pattern recognition aims. John R. Koza introduced GP at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1992. He used
the concept of Darwinian natural selection and derived GP from
the principles of genetic algorithms (GA) (Koza 1992).
In GP, the first step is to create a large random population of
tree-based structured individuals with a high level of diversity. Each
individual is composed of functions and terminals that are selected
from a predefined set of functions and a set of terminals, respec-
tively. The functions are basic mathematical, Boolean, logical, and
iterative operators. It is also possible to define a newly developed
function for special purposes. The terminal set is a set of constant
values that serve as the arguments of the functions. The individuals
created are compared with the desired outputs, and fitness values
are calculated for each individual using a predefined fitness func-
tion. The next stage is the creation of the next generation of the
population. The new population is created after choosing the most
fit individuals and breeding them together using the GP operators,
crossover, and mutation. Then the new population replaces the
old one. This procedure is repeated until a model with the desired
precision is obtained. The termination criterion of this iterative
process is the maximum number of generations or a special prede-
fined fitness value. Finally, the best tree-based model should
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1499
J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.
be simplified to a final formula including the desired input and
output variables that predict the output variable in a precise manner.
A typical GP flowchart is shown in Fig. 8 (i = number in the current
Crossover Operator
Crossover, which is used to evolve tree-based structures, is one of
the primary GP operators. It can produce two new individuals,
are selected from the previously generated population. The pro-
cedure consists of the following steps:
• Selection of two individuals from the population;
• Selection of a random node from each of the selected indivi-
duals; and
• Exchange of the subtrees of the selected nodes to generate the
new individuals.
A typical crossover operation is illustrated in Fig. 9.
Mutation Operator
Mutation is a procedure in which a casual node in a selected tree-
based individual is replaced with another random node from a
related terminal or function set. The new node must have the same
number of arguments as the one it replaced. That is, a functional
node is replaced by one from the function set, and the same pro-
cedure can be used for a terminal node with the terminal set
(see Fig. 10). A more detailed description of GP operators and the
step-by-step explanation of the replacement process can be found
in Koza (1992).
In this study, multigene GP was used to model the PCI. This
method is an improved form of GP that uses a new feature called
multigene. In this method, the model development is based on a
number of genes that have nonlinear behaviors but whose combi-
nation in a linear form shapes the final structure of the goal model.
More details about this method can be found in Hinchliffe et al.
(1996) and Searson (2002, 2009). Eq. (4) shows the general form
of multigene GP:
Y ¼ c1 × G 1 þ c2 × G 2 þ c3 × G 3 þ : : : þ cn × G n þ c0 (4)
where ci = coefficient of related genes; Gi = nonlinear genes;
n = number of genes; c0 = bias term; and Y = output. The initial
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Fig. 8. Typical flowchart of GP

Fig. 10. Typical mutation operation in genetic programming

Table 4. Initial Configuration of GP-Based Model

Parameter Range
Population size 50–20,000
Function set +, −, ×, ÷, protected log
Number of generations 100–12,000
Maximum number of genes 1–30
Fig. 9. Typical crossover operation in genetic programming Maximum number of nodes per tree 3–30
Maximum depth of trees 3–15
Size of tournament selection 2–5
Probability of GP tree mutationa 0.05–0.15
configuration of GP-based model development is summarized in Probability of GP tree crossovera 0.7–0.9
Table 4. Probability of GP tree direct copya 0.01–0.1
In this study, the root-mean square error (RMSE) was the fitness a
function for GP modeling. To improve the accuracy of model de- Sum must be equal to 1.
velopment, lexicographic tournament selection was used as a suit-
able feature (Koza 1992; Searson 2009). In addition, some other Results and Discussion
constraints were imposed to improve the GP runs, such as the maxi-
mum number of genes, the maximum depth of genes, the maximum The final ANN- and GP-based models were obtained after testing
number of nodes per tree, and the tournament selection size. More many possible initial settings. Table 5 shows the statistical criteria
details can be found in Searson (2009). that were used in this study to evaluate the performance of the

1500 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

 proposed models. In this research, a unique data division was used GP-Based Model
for the development of the GP- and ANN-based models. This type
of data division made it possible to compare the performance of Eq. (5) is the final relationship obtained between distresses and the
these methods in the estimation of the PCI. PCI using the GP technique.

PCI ¼ 105.64 − 0.054ðx1 þ 2x12 þ x4 Þ − 0.122ðx5 þ x10 þ x13 þ x20 Þ − 0.266ðx21 þ x6 Þ − 0.061x7 − 0.094x8 − 0.142x9 − 0.388x14
− 0.118x15 − 0.334x18 − 0.0001x23 þ 0.029ðx9 fðx2 ÞÞ þ 27.67fðx1 þ 2x2 Þ þ 1.96ðfðx9 Þ − fðx17 ÞÞ − 19.7fðx1 þ 2.78x2 Þ
− 1.066fðx15 þ x19 þ x2 Þ − 0.79fðx1 þ x5 − x7 − x8 Þ − 7.49fðx1 þ x16 þ x2 þ 1.783Þ − 1.51fðx13 − x1 − x2 þ x20 Þ
− 6.53fðx1 þ x2 þ 3.253x3 Þ − 3.84fðx11 þ 2.751x2 þ 1.864Þ − 0.737fðx2 − x15 þ 1.86x8 Þ þ 0.0166fðx2 þ x3 Þðx7 þ x8 Þ
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

− 5.84fðx3 − x17 þ 0.566x9 Þ þ 0.0232fðx2 Þx12 þ x3 þ x5 Þ (5)

where f = protected logarithmic function. The other parameters
were described previously in Table 1. The protected logarithmic
function known as PLOG in MATLAB (2009) calculates the pro-
tected natural logarithm of a variable element by element. Eq. (6)
shows the definition of PLOG:
if x ≠ 0 ⇒ PLOGðxÞ ¼ LnðABSðxÞÞ if x ¼ 0 ⇒ PLOGðxÞ ¼ 0
(6)
where Ln = natural logarithm; and ABSðxÞ = absolute value func-
tion that returns the absolute value of x. Fig. 11 shows the measured
PCI versus the PCI predicted by the GP-based model for training,
testing, and all of the data. As illustrated, the GP-based model
had a relatively high precision and could predict the pavement
condition index with a low estimation error. In this figure, the high
densities of the points are because of the large number of cases in
the database.
ANN-Based Model
Fig. 12 shows the performance of the final ANN-based model for
training, testing, and all data. The superior performance of the
model demonstrates the capability of the ANN for modeling the
PCI. The statistical properties of the model are also illustrated
in Fig. 12.
Parametric Study
A parametric study of the soft computing models was conducted to
determine the effects of the input parameters on the PCI. This study
was performed to further verify the proposed models. The method-
ology is based on the alteration of a single input parameter within
the range of its maximum and minimum values while keeping the
other input parameters at their mean values. Figs. 13, 14, and 15
Table 5. Statistical Criteria for Evaluation of Models
Performance index Mathematical definition
Pn
Coefficient of determination (R2 ) ðym −yp Þ2
R2 ¼ 1 − Pni¼1
ðym −y¯m Þ
i¼1
qP
ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
n
RMSE RMSE ¼ i¼1
Pn
jym −yp j
MAE MAE ¼ i¼1
n and testing subsets and the proper results of the parametric study,
illustrate the results of the parametric study for low-, medium-, and
high-severity alligator cracking distress, respectively.
Because all types of distresses have negative effects on the pave-
ment condition, increasing the input variables decreases the PCI.
In addition, the severity of the distresses has a direct impact on
the negative slopes of the curves. The results also reveal that the
variation trends of the GP- and ANN-based models are the same
and the predicted values are close to one another.
Comparison of the Models
The statistical performances of the ANN- and GP-based models are
summarized in Table 6. The definitions of the statistical criteria
used in this study are given in Table 5. Both of the models have
high precision, and their R2 values show their success in modeling
the PCI. The values of R2 , RMSE, and mean absolute error (MAE)
for the ANN-based models were equal to 0.9986, 0.99, and 0.49,
respectively, whereas they were equal to 0.9898, 2.63, and 1.79
for the GP-based model, considering all of the data. However,
the ANN-based evolved model had lower errors compared to the
GP-based model. Fig. 16 illustrates the performance of the GP- and
ANN-based models in comparison with the field-measured values
for some cases specified from the training subsets.
A comparison of Figs. 11(a) and 12(a) shows that the GP-based
model had larger relative errors than the ANN-based model, which
is also illustrated by its fluctuation, as shown in Fig. 16. The figure
represents this fact in another way. It was found that cases with PCI
lower than 40 had relatively larger prediction errors than cases with
PCI values greater than 40. However, the errors associated with the
low PCI values fall within the acceptable range. The main reason
for this discrepancy is the high concentration of cases with high
PCI values in the database (i.e., values greater than 60). In addition,
soft-computing approaches typically optimize the errors in the
ranges that capture most of the cases.
Shahin and Kohn (1981) stated that pavements with PCI
values in the range of 40 or lower are in an unserviceable condi-
tion, as shown in Fig. 1. Thus, these pavements should be consid-
ered for rehabilitation/reconstruction activities by the appropriate
agencies.
2
ffi
ðym −yp Þ2 Verification of the Models
n
In addition to the good performance of the models for the training

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1501

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Fig. 11. Measured PCI versus the predicted PCI by GP: (a) training; Fig. 12. Measured PCI versus the predicted PCI by ANN: (a) training;
(b) testing; (c) all data (b) testing; (c) all data

1502 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

 Table 6. Statistical Performances of the ANN- and GP-Based Models
Model Subset R2 RMSE MAE
GP-based model Train 0.9899 2.62 1.78
Test 0.9895 2.67 1.81
All 0.9898 2.63 1.79
ANN-based model Train 0.9993 0.69 0.45
Test 0.9956 1.74 0.65
All 0.9986 0.99 0.49
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Fig. 13. Results of parametric study for the low alligator cracking

Fig. 16. Comparison of the measured values with the predicted values
by GP and ANN for PCI: (a) 80–70; (b) 60–40

Table 7. Final Results of the Validation Database

Model R2 RMSE MAE
GP 0.9887 2.03 1.60
ANN 0.9986 0.72 0.52

Fig. 14. Results of parametric study for the medium alligator cracking Summary and Conclusions

In this study, two high-precision models were derived for the

Fig. 15. Results of parametric study for the high alligator cracking
a distinct 10-km road section was used for further verification of
the models. The data used for verification is presented in Table 8
in the appendix. Table 7 shows the statistical performance of the
proposed models for the validation set. Although both models
were adequately precise, the ANN-based model was more precise
than the GP-based model, which is in accordance with previous
findings.
prediction of the PCI based on a comprehensive database. The
input variables for the models were various types of distresses, in-
cluding alligator cracking, bleeding, block cracking, edge cracking,
longitude cracking, patching, and pothole and transverse cracking,
and the output was the PCI value. Two robust soft computing meth-
ods, ANN and GP, were employed for model development. The
major findings of this research are as follows:
• The ANN- and GP-based models yielded a reliable prediction of
the pavement condition index. The ANN technique gave more
precise estimates of the PCI than the GP method. However, both
models showed low error levels, and the errors fell within an
acceptable range.
• The good statistical performance of the models in training and
testing subsets, the appropriate results of the parametric study,
and further verification of the models using a separate data set
assured the robustness and applicability of the proposed models.
• A novel computer program called the PCI Calculator was devel-
oped using the ANN- and GP-based models for routine use in
practice and is provided at http://webpages.iust.ac.ir/amin/.
• The proposed model can provide a reliable prediction of the PCI
and can be used in the PMS.
• The feasibility of the ANN and GP techniques in finding the
solutions to nonlinear problems was illustrated. Moreover, it
is possible to further improve the precision of the models of this
study by retraining the models with new cases when more data
are made available.

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1503

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Appendix

Table 8. Validation Set

Predicted Predicted
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20 x21 Measured (GP) (ANN)
4.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.03 0 0 85.15 86.24 85.44
0 1.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.94 0 2.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.16 0 0 82.58 84.59 82.08
1.23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.82 0 0 94.58 93.83 94.21
0 0 0 0.41 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 98.90 99.91
7.98 27.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.05 0 0 52.87 51.97 52.05
2.82 67.47 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.29 0.44 0 44.09 43.58 44.48
0.27 18.73 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.76 0 0 57.54 61.67 59.04
1.98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.37 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 90.97 91.40 91.56
3.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.96 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.09 0 0 88.05 88.30 87.94
1.67 4.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 72.12 73.65 72.4
25.03 2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.78 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.3 0 0 63.57 62.65 63.31
6.56 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.97 0 0 84.79 85.20 84.37
0.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23.5 1.34 0 0 0 0 0 1.15 0 0 92.89 94.13 91.83
3.82 11.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.29 2.77 0 0 53.87 0 0 5.74 0 0 45.15 51.49 44.49
22.13 0.51 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.93 10.83 0 0 0 0 0 7.23 0 0 66.86 69.15 67.72
10.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.36 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 79.82 81.10 79.48
8.79 14.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.19 0 0 58.95 57.68 58.09
3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.76 0 0 86.82 86.03 87.03
35.24 18.07 0 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 0 0 9.24 0 0 11.11 5.97 0 0 10.81 0 0 43.87 46.43 42.83
0.23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.62 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.36 0 0 96.39 97.79 95.97
19.64 12.88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.92 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.63 0 0 54.81 55.27 55.18
1.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.76 6.06 0 0 0 0 0 4.53 0 0 91.25 89.48 89.74
4.11 3.76 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10.62 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.5 0 0 73.72 72.08 72.68
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.01 0 0 97.5 96.21 97.52

1504 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.73 0 0 97.87 97.28 98.11

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.49 0 0 100 98.49 99.89
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.53 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 98.64 99.85
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 99.76 98.46 99.73
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 98.92 99.92
0.64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.09 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.97 0 0 95.51 95.91 95.29
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.26 0 0 99.36 97.64 99.36
8.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16.38 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.15 0 0 80.63 81.67 80.55
0.64 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.72 0 0 0 0 0 0.75 0 0 95.93 100.33 95.21
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.91 0 0 100 98.23 99.88
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.04 0 0 100 97.73 99.84
25.84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 69.96 73.29 69.62
4.22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.47 0 0 10.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 85.29 81.99 83.27
1.59 6.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.77 0 0 68.35 69.84 68.57
16.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.87 0 0 74.69 76.18 74.56
23.78 17.24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.84 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.61 0 0 50.71 51.65 51.04
31.46 3.97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.81 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.18 0 0 59.81 60.24 59.41
0 0 0 0 0.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.29 0 0 99.55 101.35 99.43
0.95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.96 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.63 0 0 93.45 94.11 94.02
52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.32 0 0 0 0.33 0 0 2.96 0 0 59.09 64.66 60
25.35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.65 0 0 69.37 73.19 69.32
 Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Table 8. (Continued)
Predicted Predicted
x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 x12 x13 x14 x15 x16 x17 x18 x19 x20 x21 Measured (GP) (ANN)
18.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.06 0 0 72.84 74.63 72.72
6.27 7.13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.68 0 0 67.75 66.19 66.84
0.79 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 95.71 96.20 95.47
3.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.52 0 0 89.71 88.28 89.54
28.2 12.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 8.77 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.52 0 0 51.85 53.16 52.25
55.13 11.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.81 0.56 0 47.94 48.40 47.46
37.91 42.48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.29 0 0 40.29 40.79 39.98
48.23 16.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.66 0 0 0 0.3 0 0 2.78 0 0 45.02 47.07 46.26
7.59 72.11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.62 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.76 0 0 41.29 41.03 41.1
23.62 17.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.23 0 0 50.77 51.69 51.13
25.26 4.65 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21.19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.91 0 0 59.62 59.98 59.77
8.63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80.9 82.35 80.99
5.23 14.35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.49 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.54 0 0 62.65 60.43 60.88
17.97 8.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.08 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.94 0 0 59.19 59.54 59.66
23.56 24.39 0 0 0.82 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.43 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.91 0 0 47.62 48.75 48.11
9.88 19.72 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13.87 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 55.53 54.59 54.72
1.31 11.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.31 0 0 63.46 65.60 64.2
26.02 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22.31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.49 0 0 69.08 72.49 68.9
14.56 0.3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.33 3.34 0 0 0 0 0 3.55 0 0 71.29 75.43 73.36
6.44 26.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11.54 1.8 0 0.18 0.14 0 0 0 0 0 49.75 52.86 51.91
27.36 12.99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.21 0 0 52.7 53.30 52.55
22.89 15.34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23.22 2.46 0 0 0 0 0 1.18 0 0 50.62 51.99 51.23
38.86 7.45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.74 0 0 53.7 54.55 53.23
18.63 0 0 0 0.16 0 0.69 0 0 0 0 9.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.59 0 0 72.42 75.05 72.51
5.02 5.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.54 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.08 0 0 71.34 69.63 70.53
5.32 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3.14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 86.5 86.50 86.02

J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012 / 1505
 Acknowledgments
The writers would like to express their gratitude to RAHBORD
Consulting Engineers Company and especially to Mr. Norouzi
for their support during this research.
References
Alavi, A. H., Ameri, M., Gandomi, A. H., and Mirzahosseini, M. R. (2011).
“Formulation of flow number of asphalt mixes using a hybrid computa-
tional method.” Constr. Build. Mater., 25(3), 1338–1355.
ASTM D6433-03. (2003). “Standard practice for roads and parking lots
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/10/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
pavement condition index.” ASTM international, West Conshohocken.
Hinchliffe, M. P., Willis, M. J., Hiden, H. G., Tham, M. T., McKay, B., and
Barton, G. W. (1996). “Modeling chemical process systems using a
multi-gene genetic programming algorithm.” Genetic programming:
Proc., First Annual Conf. (late breaking papers), J. Koza, ed., MIT
Press, USA, 56–65.
Huang, Y. H. (2004). Pavement analysis and design, 2nd Ed., Pearson
Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey.
Johari, A., Habibagahi, G., and Ghahramani, A. (2006). “Prediction of soil-
water characteristic curve using genetic programming.” J. Geotech.
Geoenviron. Eng., 132(5), 661–665.
Koza, J. R. (1992). “Genetic programming: On the programming of com-
puters by means of natural selection.” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
Lacroix, A., Kim, Y. R., and Ranjithan, S. (2008). “Backcalculation of
dynamic modulus from resilient modulus of asphalt concrete with an
artificial neural network.” Transp. Res. Rec.: J. Transp. Res. Board,
2057, 107–113.
MATLAB version 7.9.0. (2009). [Computer software]. The MathWorks Inc.,
Natick, MA.
Ozsahin, T. S., and Oruc, S. (2008). “Neural network model for resilient
modulus of emulsified asphalt mixtures.” Constr. Build. Mater., 22(7),
1436–1445.
Rakesh, N., Jain, A. K., Amaranatha Reddy, M., and Sudhakar Reddy, K.
(2006). “Artificial neural networks-genetic algorithm based model for
backcalculation of pavement layer moduli.” Int. J. Pavement Eng., 7(3),
221–230.
Rezania, M., and Javadi, A. A. (2007). “A new genetic programming model
for prediction settlement of shallow foundations.” Can. Geotech. J.,
44(12), 1462–1472.
1506 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / DECEMBER 2012
View publication stats J. Transp. Eng. 2012.138:1495-1506.
Saltan, M., and Sezgin, H. (2007). “Hybrid neural network and finite
element modeling of subbase layer material properties in flexible pave-
ments.” Mater. Des., 28(5), 1725–1730.
Saltan, M., and Terzi, S. (2008). “Modeling deflection basin using
artificial neural networks with cross-validation technique in back
calculating flexible pavement layer moduli.” Adv. Eng. Softw., 39(7),
588–592.
Schwartz, C. W. (1993). “Infrastructure condition forecasting using
neural networks.” Proc., Infrastructure Planning and Management,
J. L. Gifford, D. R. Vzarski, and S. McNeil, eds., ASCE, New York,
282–284.
Searson, D. P. (2002). “Non-linear PLS using genetic programming.” Ph.D.
thesis, School of Chemical Engineering and Advanced Materials, Univ.
of Newcastle, UK.
Searson, D. P. (2009). “GPTIPS: Genetic programming and symbolic
regression for MATLAB.” 〈gptips.sourceforge.net〉 (Feb. 10, 2010).
Shahin, M. A., Maier, H. R., and Jaksa, M. B. (2004). “Data division
for developing neural networks applied to geotechnical engineering.”
J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 18(2), 105–114.
Shahin, M. Y. (2005). Pavement management for airports, roads and park-
ing lots, 2nd Ed., Springer, New York.
Shahin, M. Y., and Kohn, S. D. (1981). “Pavement maintenance manage-
ment for roads and parking lots.” Technical Rep. M-294, Construction
Engineering Research Laboratory, U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers,
Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Springfield, VA, 209.
Shahnazari, H., Dehnavi, Y., and Alavi, A. H. (2010). “Numerical modeling
of stress-strain behavior of sand under cyclic loading.” J. Eng. Geol.,
116(1–2), 53–72.
Tapkın, S., Cevik, A., and Usar, Ü. (2009). “Accumulated strain prediction
of polypropylene modified Marshall specimens in repeated creep
test using artificial neural networks.” Expert Syst. Appl., 36(8),
11186–11197.
Terzi, S. (2007). “Modeling the pavement serviceability ratio of flexible
highway pavements by artificial neural networks.” Constr. Build.
Mater., 21(3), 590–593.
Xiao, F., and Amirkhanian, S. N. (2009). “Artificial neural network ap-
proach to estimating stiffness behavior of rubberized asphalt concrete
containing reclaimed asphalt pavement.” J. Transp. Eng., 135(8),
580–589.
Yang, J. (2004). “Road crack condition performance modeling using recur-
rent Markov chains and artificial neural networks.” Ph.D. dissertation,
Univ. of South Florida.