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The COVID-19 pandemic: What lies in store for

us?
How will the COVID-19 pandemic progress in the next few months and years?
Researchers conducted an expert survey to determine the main aspects likely to
influence the pandemic in Europe.

HEALTH

SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES

Almost two years since Europe’s first

© Viacheslav Lopatin, Shutterstock
confirmed COVID-19 case, the region is still
struggling to contain the spread of the disease,
with no clear idea of what the future holds. To
combat this uncertainty, researchers
supported by the EU-funded EpiPose,
PERISCOPE and CORESMA projects set out
to systematically assess the factors likely to
affect the pandemic’s course in Europe and
predict how it may evolve.

The survey was based on questionnaires with

open-ended questions focusing on epidemiology, virology, public health and social
science, directed at experts throughout Europe. The resulting study combines
epidemiological aspects with economic, social and health-related consequences to
provide a more holistic perspective on the pandemic’s future course.

According to the study, the pandemic’s development will strongly depend on

population immunity, variants of concern (VOCs) and how the public responds to
public health measures. Two major contributors to population immunity are
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vaccination and so-called natural immunity resulting from prior infection with SARS-
CoV-2 and likely from prior exposure to other coronaviruses. “The fraction of those
who are naturally immune in the population varies widely between European
countries. However, in all countries the majority of the population remained
susceptible to infection,” the authors write.

Vaccine uptake in Europe is “an ever-changing situation,” ranging from high initial
acceptance amongst older and vulnerable people to wariness following reports of
possible links to rare side effects and lower willingness to get vaccinated amongst
younger age groups. However, as long as population immunity hasn’t been reached,
appropriate restrictions need to be maintained to stop the virus from spreading. “In
the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and
spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore,
lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge
remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination
progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021,” according to the study.

What to expect in late 2021 and beyond

Increased indoor activity in autumn might speed up the virus’ spread, necessitating
the reintroduction of public health measures – possibly too late. It ultimately all
depends on vaccination levels. As the study reports, “countries with … high vaccine
uptake can, at worst, expect only modest waves of COVID-19 over the winter” while
maintaining moderate public health measures. In contrast, unless appropriate
measures are taken, countries with a lower level of vaccination coverage will
experience more severe waves.

So will we see the back of the pandemic in the next three to five years? According to
the study, it’s unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 can be eradicated in the long term.
Nevertheless, eradicating the virus would necessitate “global political commitment
and unified and uniform public assent that eradication is the overarching target.” If
children are also vaccinated, some countries might achieve high enough vaccination
rates to sustainably prevent local transmission. In countries with insufficient or too
heterogeneous immunity, recurring local and seasonal outbreaks of the virus are
expected.

The authors hope that the work supported by EpiPose (Epidemic intelligence to
minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe),
PERISCOPE (Pan-European Response to the ImpactS of COVID-19 and future
Pandemics and Epidemics), and CORESMA (COVID-19-Outbreak Response
combining E-health, Serolomics, Modelling, Artificial Intelligence and Implementation
Research) will serve as a scientific basis for policy debates. The study was published
in ‘The Lancet Regional Health – Europe’.

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For more information, please see:
EpiPose project website
PERISCOPE project
CORESMA project website

Keywords
EpiPose, PERISCOPE, CORESMA, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, coronavirus, public
health, immunity, vaccination, pandemic, variant of concern

Related projects

CORESMA

COVID-19-Outbreak Response
combining E-health, Serolomics,
Modelling, Artificial Intelligence and
Implementation Research

20 July 2021
PROJECT

PERISCOPE

Pan-European Response to the ImpactS

of COVID-19 and future Pandemics and
Epidemics

24 August 2021
PROJECT

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 EpiPose

Epidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-

nCoV’s public health, economic and
social impact in Europe

23 August 2021
PROJECT

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Last update: 20 September 2021

Record number: 430653

Permalink: https://cordis.europa.eu/article/id/430653-the-covid-19-pandemic-what-
lies-in-store-for-us

© European Union, 2021

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