Decision 1

0
0 0

0
Decision 2
0
0 0

Decision Node: Kotak - Informasi Apa saja yang bisa kita ambil
Event Node: Bulat - Kemungkinan hasil yang keluar dari tiap alternatif
Segitiga - End of Branch

Finding: Sifat dari reportnya (Favorable and Unfavorable)

State of Nature: Hasil yang keluar dari setiap alternatif

Prior Probability: Udah ada penelitian sebelumnya yang akan dipakai sebagai referensi untuk decision tree
Posterior Probability: Include New Finding
Posterior Probability: P(State | Finding)
rensi untuk decision tree
ID PARENT TYPE
1 3T
2 3T
3 0D
ROW COL LABEL VALUE PROP
2 5 Decision 1 0 0.5
7 5 Decision 2 0 0.5
4 1 Event 3 0 1
 0.45
Oil

Drill 8000000 7000000

-1000000 2600000 0.55

Dry

0 -1000000

No Drill

0 0

2680000

0.5
Favorable

0 5380000

Hire a geologist

-20000 2680000

0.5
Unfavorable

0 -20000
 7000000

-1000000

0.8
Oil
6980000
Drill 8000000 6980000

-1000000 5380000 0.2

Dry
-1020000
0 -1020000

No Drill
-20000
0 -20000

0.1
Oil
-2020000
Drill 8000000 6980000

-10000000 -220000 0.9

Dry
-10020000
0 -1020000

No Drill
 -20000
0 -20000
so, choose alternative 3: Hire a geologist
when favorable choose drill
if unfavorable choose no drill
ID PARENT TYPE ROW COL LABEL VALUE
1 3T 2 9 Event 1 0
2 3T 7 9 Event 2 0
3 16 E 4 5 Decision 1 0
4 16 T 12 5 Decision 5 0
5 7T 17 17 Event 3 0
6 7T 22 17 Event 4 0
7 9E 19 13 Event 3 0
 8 9T 27 13 Event 4 0
9 15 D 23 9 Decision 3 0
10 12 T 32 17 Event 8 0
11 12 T 37 17 Event 9 0
12 14 E 34 13 Decision 6 0
13 14 T 42 13 Decision 7 0
14 15 D 38 9 Decision 4 0
15 16 E 30 5 Decision 3 0
16 0D 17 1 Event 4 0
PROP
0.5
0.5
0.33333333
0.33333333
0.5
0.5
0.5
 0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.33333333
1
 0.6
Strong Sales
400000000
Indiana (shared) 600000000 400000000

-200000000 440000000 0.4

Moderate Sales
500000000
700000000 500000000

440000000 0.6
Strong Sales
600000000
Geogia (dedicated) 1000000000 600000000

-400000000 360000000 0.4

Moderate Sales
0
400000000 0

440jt: expected payoff without information

total profit: TR -TC
TR = Q x P
TC: (Q x VC) + FC
Total profit: Q x (P-VC)-FC
ID PARENT TYPE ROW COL
1 3T 2 9
2 3T 7 9
3 7E 4 5
4 6T 12 9
5 6T 17 9
6 7E 14 5
7 0D 9 1
LABEL VALUE PROP
Strong Sales 0 0.5
Moderate Sal 0 0.5
Indiana (shar 0 0.5
Event 4 0 0.5
Event 5 0 0.5
Geogia (dedic 0 0.5
Event 3 0 1
Decision tree -> posterior probabilities -> p(state|finding)
P(state|finding): given the finding , berapa persentase kemungkinan state of naturenya
Given the favorable, 80% oil 20% dry

Given the strong sales, 70% positive and 30% negative

Given the moderate sales, 20% positive and 80% negative
state of nature: strong and moderate sales
Findings: positive and negative attitudes
P(finding|state): given the state, berapa persentase kemungkinan findings

P (finding|state)
state of nature P(state) positive attitude Negative attittudes
strong sales 0.6 0.7 0.3
moderate sales 0.4 0.2 0.8

P(state and finding) positive attitude Negative attittudes

strong sales 0.42 0.18
Moderate sales 0.08 0.32

P (finding|state)
Findings P(Finding) strong sales moderate sales
Positive attitudes 0.5 0.84 0.16
Negative attitudes 0.5 0.36 0.64
P(states|finding): P(state and finding)/P(finding)
P(state and finding): P(state) x P(finding|state)
P(finding 1): P(state 1 and finding 1 + P(state2 and finding 1)

P(strong and positive): P(strong x P(positive|strong)

P(positive): P(strong and positive) + P(moderate and positive)

P(state|finding): P(state and finding)/P(finding)
P(strong|positive): P(strong and postive)/P(positive)
in million

Indiana

-200 416

0.5
Positive

0 504

Georgia

-400 504

484

Indiana

-200 464

0.5
Negative

0 464

Georgia

-400 216
 0.84
Strong sales
400
600 400 when we get positive attitudes, choose to dedicate the plan
if get negative attitudes then choose to dedicate the plan in
0.16
Moderate sales c. Cost for marketing survey
500 EVPI: Expected value of perfect information
700 500 EVPI: Expected payoof with information - expected payoff w
EVPI: 484 million -440 million
0.84 EVPI" 44 million
Strong sales biaya max yang bisa kita keluarin untuk lakuin marrketing su
600
1000 600

0.16
Moderate sales
0
400 0

0.36
Strong sales
400
600 400

0.64
Moderate sales
500
700 500

0.36
Strong sales
600
1000 600

0.64
Moderate sales
0
400 0
es, choose to dedicate the plan in georgia
choose to dedicate the plan in Indiana

ect information
nformation - expected payoff without information

arin untuk lakuin marrketing survey biar ga rugi

ID PARENT TYPE ROW COL LABEL
1 3T 2 13 Strong sales
2 3T 7 13 Moderate sal
3 7E 4 9 Indiana
4 6T 12 13 Strong sales
5 6T 17 13 Moderate sal
6 7E 14 9 Georgia
7 15 D 9 5 Positive
 8 10 T 22 13 Event 8
9 10 T 27 13 Event 9
10 14 E 24 9 Decision 8
11 13 T 32 13 Event 11
12 13 T 37 13 Event 12
13 14 E 34 9 Decision 9
14 15 D 29 5 Decision 2
15 0E 19 1 Event 3
VALUE PROP
0 0.84
0 0.16
0 0.5
0 0.84
0 0.16
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 0.5
0 1