Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Ma Tieying
• COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the global trend towards a
Economist
matieying@dbs.com cashless economy
• Cryptocurrency market experienced very strong growth in 4Q
Samuel Tse • Major Chinese banks have begun testing a digital wallet app
Economist
samueltse@dbs.com linked to the e-RMB
• Numerous supranational institutions are exploring scenarios of
central bank digital currencies and global stable-coin usage
The COVID-19 pandemic this year has accelerated the global trend
towards a cashless economy. Cash and ATM usage have declined
sharply in many countries, along with the reduction in in-person
purchases of goods and services. The usage of electronic payments
Global cash usage is
instruments has increased notably on the other hand, driven by the
likely to decline 4-5
change in consumers’ behavior. In the 2020 Global Payments Report
ppt this year
published in October, McKinsey projects a 4-5 percentage points decline
in the share of global payment transactions conducted via cash by the
end of 2020, down from the 69% in 2019. Specifically, McKinsey expects
the share of cash payments to drop to 41% in China this year, 89% in
India, 96% in Indonesia, and less than 40% in Singapore and South Korea.
60
40
20
0 0 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2019 2020
Sources: Bloomberg, DBS Sources: Bloomberg, DBS
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
Bitcoin, S&P 500, gold: return Bitcoin, S&P 500, gold: volatility
1Y return, % Annualized volatility of daily returns, %
200 BTC 100
S&P 500
150 80
Gold
100
60
BTC
50
S&P 500
40
0 Gold
20
-50
-100 0
2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: Bloomberg, DBS Sources: Bloomberg, DBS
Bitcoin, S&P 500, gold: risk-adjusted return Bitcoin, S&P 500, gold: correlation
1Y return/realized volatility 12M correlation of daily returns
4 BTC 0.5 BTC-S&P 500
S&P 500 0.4 BTC-Gold
3 Gold
0.3
2 0.2
1 0.1
0.0
0
-0.1
-1
-0.2
-2 -0.3
2019 2020 2017 2018 2019 2020
Sources: Bloomberg, DBS Sources: Bloomberg, DBS
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
CBDC development
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
e-RMB
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
phone users will be able to directly transfer any bank savings into the
digital wallet. But the Huawei phone is yet another development that
the adoption phase is not that far off. And other Chinese phone makers
will likely follow suit.
Samsung
20% Huawei
22%
Xiaomi
4% Apple
8% Oppo
14%
Vivo
8% Realme
11%
13%
Others
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the central bank is not
“racing to be first” but her hunch is that Europe will issue CBDC. In
October, the ECB launched a public consultation and experimentation
on digital euro. According to the report, there are several scenarios that
could induce the Eurosystem to issue a digital euro. In general, a digital
euro should achieve the objectives related to core central bank
functions and foster formulating general economic policies of the EU.
The ECB also addressed the potential impact on banking sector,
monetary policy and financial stability. For instance, funding costs of
banks and hence interest rates on bank loans may increase when
depositors transform their commercial bank deposits into central bank
liabilities. Banks might in turn decrease the supply of credit, thereby
affecting the level of aggregate investment and consumption of the real
economy. During times of crisis, depositors may rapidly exchange their
commercial bank note into digital euro. The risk of bank runs will
increase. Also, issuance of CBDC affects the central bank’s reputation as
well as safety and efficiency of retail payments. As such, the ECB sets up
the following requirements for a digital euro:
Requirements
1 Enhance digital efficiency to support the digitalisation of the European economy and the
strategic independence of the European Union
2 Equip with cash-like features in response to a significant decline in the role of cash as a
means of payment
3 Possess competitive features in view of the potential usage of foreign CBDCs or private
digital payments in the euro area
4 Could enhance new monetary policy transmission channel
5 Serve as a back-up system for cash to mitigate risks to the normal provision of payment
services
6 Could foster the international role of the euro
7 Support improvements in the overall costs and ecological footprint of the monetary and
payment systems
8 Equip with ability to control the amount of digital euro in circulation to avoid its use as a
form of investment and the associated risk of large shifts from private money to digital euro
9 Cooperate with market participants across all euro countries
10 Comply with the regulatory framework
11 Ensure safety and efficiency in the fulfilment of the Eurosystem’s goals
12 Enable easy accessibility throughout the euro area
13 Allow conditional use by non-euro area residents only to ensure that it does not contribute
to excessively volatile capital flows or exchange rates
14 Ensure cyber resilience
Source: ECB, DBS
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
On practical level, the ECB also defined two approaches for the back-end
infrastructure - centralised approach and decentralised approach. Of
which, two models could be derived from each approach.
The centralised approach would allow users to deposit and withdraw the
CBDC by means of electronic transfers. This can be separated into two
models: (i) Direct access: payments are instructed by end users in the
central bank infrastructure; and (ii) Intermediated access: payments are
instructed by supervised intermediaries managing accounts with the
central bank on users’ behalf.
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
1 GSCs are stablecoins, a type of private digital money, issued by Big Techs with the potential for widespread adoption.
2 For instance, Alipay links its e-money to China’s largest online retail site.
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
fees. All transactions will be settled with fiat currency at their current
PayPal rates.
References
1. CoinDesk: CoinDesk Monthly Review October 2020
2. CoinDesk: CoinDesk Quarterly Review Q3 2020
3. Digital Asset Research: Institutional Digital Asset Ecosystem Q3 2020
4. European Central Bank: A digital euro
5. Grayscale: Digital Asset Investment Report Q3 2020
6. International Monetary Fund: Digital Money Across Borders: Macro-
Financial Implications
7. McKinsey: The 2020 McKinsey Global Payments Report
8. PayPal: PayPal Launches New Service Enabling Users to Buy, Hold
and Sell Cryptocurrency
9. The Phnom Penh Post: NBC’s Serey: ‘Bakong not a CBDC’
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Update on Digital Currencies December 7, 2020
Group Research
Economics & Macro Strategy
Sources: Data for all charts and tables are from CEIC, Bloomberg and DBS Group Research (forecasts and transformations).
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GENERAL DISCLOSURE/ DISCLAIMER (For Macroeconomics, Currencies, Interest Rates)
The information herein is published by DBS Bank Ltd and PT Bank DBS Indonesia (collectively, the “DBS Group”). It is based on information obtained
from sources believed to be reliable, but the Group does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness,