6/1/2020

Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology – Applied Statistics in Construction

Bach Khoa
Management
Lecturer: Nguyen Hoai Nghia, Ph.D.
 Ph.D., Management Technology, SIIT, Thammasat University,
Thailand (graduated in 2018).
Applied Statistics in  M.Eng., Construction Technology and Management, HCMC

Construction Management Polytechnic University, HCMC, Vietnam (graduated in 2008).

 B.Eng., Civil Engineering, HCMC Polytechnic University,
HCMC, Vietnam (graduated in 2002).
Lecturer: Nguyen Hoai Nghia (Jack), Ph.D.
Email: nhnghia@hcmiu.edu,vn
nghianew@yahoo.com

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Applied Statistics in Construction Applied Statistics in Construction

Management Management
Research Areas Course Objectives
 Project Appraisal.  To master the basic concepts in statistics.
 Construction Cost/Finance Management.  To understand the tools and methods usually used in
 Construction Procurement Management. statistics.
 Construction Schedule Management.  To know how to use at least one statistical soft ware.

 Real Estate Development.  To apply that knowledge to survey, analyze, evaluate, and
manage systems and processes in the construction industry.

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Applied Statistics in Construction Applied Statistics in Construction

Management Management
Grading Policy Text books
 Assignments + Term project: 40%  De Veaux, R. D., Velleman, P. F., & Bock, D. E. , Intro Stats,
 Software practice: 10% 5th Edition, Pearson Education Inc. , USA, 2017.
 Final exam: 50%  Dalgaard, P., Introductory Statistics with R, 2nd Edition,
Springer, USA, 2008.
 Hair, Jr. , J. F. , Anderson, R. E., Tatham, R. L. , & Black, W.
Note:
C. , Multivariate Data Analysis, 8th Edition, McGraw-Hill, USA,
 Class attendant  Compulsory
2019.
 Benjamin, J. R. & Cornell, C. A. , Probability, Statistics, and
Decision for Civil Engineers, 3rd Edition, McGraw-Hill, USA,
1970.
 Hoàng Trọng và Chu Nguyễn Mộng Ngọc. Thống kê ứng
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dụng trong kinh tế xã hội, Nhà xuất bản Thống kê, 2015. 6

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Content Content
 Part 1: Exploring and understanding data  Part 2: Exploring relationships between variables
 1.1 What are statistics?  2.1 Scatter plots
 1.2 Populations and samples  2.2 Correlation
 1.3 Variables  2.3 Linear regression
 1.4 Measures of data  2.4 Multiple regression
 1.5 Pattern of data
 1.6 Displaying and describing data  Part 3: Data collection
 1.7 Tables  3.1 Three big ideas of sampling
 1.8 Comparing distributions  3.2 Methods of data collection
 3.3 Scales of measurement
 3.4 Sample surveys

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Content 1.1 What are statistics?

 Part 4: Probability  Statistics helps us to make sense of the world described by
 4.1 Probability our data by seeing past the underlying variation to find
 4.2 Variables
patterns and relationships.
 4.3 Sampling distributions
 Statistics are particular calculations made from data.
 Part 5: Inference for relationships
 5.1 Confidence intervals
 5.2 Hypothesis testing
 5.3 Statistical Significance

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1.1 What are statistics? 1.2 Populations and samples

 Data v.s. information
Data
Data is raw, unorganized facts
that need to be processed.
Data can be something simple
and seemingly random and
useless until it is organized.
Ex: Each student's test score is
one piece of data.
 1.2.1 Populations and samples
 1.2.2 Differences among populations and samples
Information
 1.2.3 Simple random sampling
When data is processed,  1.2.4 Sampling with and without replacements
organized, structured or
presented in a given context
so as to make it useful, it is
called information.
Ex: The average score of a
class or of the entire school
is information that can be
derived from the given data.

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1.2 Populations and samples 1.2 Populations and samples

1.2.1 Populations and samples 1.2.2 Differences among populations and samples
 Both are data sets.  Depending on the sampling method, a sample can have
 A population includes all of the elements from a set of fewer observations than the population, the same number of
data. observations, or more observations.
 A sample consists one or more observations drawn from  More than one sample can be derived from the same
the population. population.
 A measurable characteristic of a population (a mean,
a standard deviation …) is called a parameter; but a
measurable characteristic of a sample is called a statistic.
 The formula and symbols are mostly different.

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1.2 Populations and samples 1.2 Populations and samples

1.2.3 Simple random sampling 1.2.3 Simple random sampling (cont.)
 A sampling method is a procedure for selecting sample  There are many ways to obtain a simple random sample.
elements from a population.  One way would be the lottery method.
 Simple random sampling refers to a sampling method that  Each of the N population members is assigned a unique
has the following properties. number.
 The population consists of N objects.  The numbers are placed in a bowl and thoroughly mixed.
 The sample consists of n objects.  Then, a blind-folded researcher selects n numbers.
 All possible samples of n objects are equally likely to Population members having the selected numbers are
occur. included in the sample.

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1.2 Populations and samples 1.3 Variables

1.2.4 Sampling with and without replacements  1.3.1 Definition
 When a population element can be selected more than one  1.3.2 Classifications
time, we are sampling with replacement.
 When a population element can be selected only one time,
we are sampling without replacement.

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.1 Definition 1.3.2 Classifications
 A variable is an attribute that describes a person, place,
thing, or idea.
 The value of the variable can "vary" from one entity to
another.

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Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 20

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.2 Classifications 1.3.2 Classifications

Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 21

Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 22

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.2 Classifications 1.3.2 Classifications
 Qualitative / Quantitative variables
 Discrete / Continuous variables
 Identifier variables
 Ordinal variables

Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 23 24

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.2 Classifications 1.3.2 Classifications
 Qualitative (categorical) variables take on values that are  Experience ???
names or labels.
 Ex: The color of a ball (e.g., red, green, blue) or the breed of a dog
 Qualitative variable?
(e.g., collie, shepherd, terrier).
 Quantitative variable?
 Quantitative variables are numeric. They represent a
measurable quantity.
 Ex: the population of a city  the number of people in the city - a
measurable attribute of the city.

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.2 Classifications 1.3.2 Classifications
 Variables that can only take on a finite number of values are  Project cost ???
called discrete variables.
 Variable that can take on any value between its minimum  Discrete variable?
value and its maximum value are called continuous variables.  Continuous variable?

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1.3 Variables 1.3 Variables

1.3.2 Classifications 1.3.2 Classifications
 Which of the following statements are true?  Identifier variables are the variables that each individual
I. All variables can be classified as quantitative or receives a unique value
categorical variables.  Ex: ID numbers, such as a student ID.
II. Categorical variables can be continuous variables.
III. Quantitative variables can be discrete variables.  Ordinal variables are variables that report order without
(A) I only natural units
(B) II only  Ex: professional.
(C) III only
(D) I and II
(E) I and III

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency)
 To find the median, we arrange the observations in order
from smallest to largest value.
 If there is an odd number of observations, the median is
the middle value.
 If there is an even number of observations, the median is
the average of the two middle values.
 The mean of a sample or a population is computed by adding
all of the observations and dividing by the number of
observations.
1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency)
Quiz:
 Suppose we draw a sample of five cement bags and
measure their weights. They weigh 90 pounds, 90 pounds,
110 pounds, 120 pounds, and 130 pounds. Find the mean
and median.

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency) 1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency)
 Population mean:
 The median may be a better indicator of the most typical
μ = ΣX / N value if a set of scores has an outlier.
 An outlier is an extreme value that differs greatly from

 Sample mean: other values.

𝑥̅ = Σx / n  However, when the sample size is large and does not
include outliers, the mean score usually provides a better
measure of central tendency.

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency)
Ex:
 Suppose we examine a sample of 10 households to estimate
the typical family income. Nine of the households have
incomes between $20,000 and $100,000; but the tenth
household has an annual income of $1,000,000,000.
1.4.1 Mean and median (measures of central tendency)
Question:
 What happen to the mean and median if we add/ multiply
every value by a constant?

 What is the outlier?

 What is the mean and median?
 How do you think about your results?

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.2 Range, variance, and standard deviation (measures of 1.4.2 Range, variance, and standard deviation (measures of
variability) variability)
Range Variance
 The range is the difference between the largest and  Variance of a population is the average squared deviation
smallest values in a set of values. from the population mean:
 Ex: Consider the following numbers: 2, 3, 5, 6, 6, 8, 10, 12. ∑ µ
σ2 =
For this set of numbers, the range would be: ……..
where:
• σ2 is the population variance,
• μ is the population mean,
• Xi is the ith element from the population,
• and N is the number of elements in the population.
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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.2 Range, variance, and standard deviation (measures of 1.4.2 Range, variance, and standard deviation (measures of
variability) variability)
Variance Standard Deviation
 Variance of a sample can be defined by slightly different  The standard deviation of a population is the square root of
formula, and uses a slightly different notation: the variance
∑ ̅
s2 = σ= 𝜎 =
∑ µ

where:
• s2 is the sample variance,  Statisticians often use simple random samples to estimate
the standard deviation of a population, based on sample data
• 𝑥̅ is the sample mean,
 the best estimate of the standard deviation of a population:
• xi is the ith element from the sample,
• and n is the number of elements in the sample. ∑ ̅
s= 𝑠 =
The sample variance can be considered an unbiased estimate 39 40

of the tr e pop lation ariance

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.2 Range, variance, and standard deviation (measures of 1.4.3 Percentiles, Quartiles, and Standard Scores
variability) (measures of position)
Question: Percentiles:
 What happen to the mean and median if we add/ multiply  The values that divide a rank-ordered set of elements into
every value by a constant? 100 equal parts are called percentiles.
 An element having a percentile rank of Pi would have a
greater value than i% of all the elements in the set.  the
observation at the 50th percentile would be denoted P50, and
it would be greater than 50% of the observations in the set.

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.3 Percentiles, Quartiles, and Standard Scores 1.4.3 Percentiles, Quartiles, and Standard Scores
(measures of position) (measures of position)
Quartiles: Question:
 Quartiles divide a rank-ordered data set into four equal parts.  What are the relationships among quartiles and percentiles?
The values that divide each part are called the first, second,
and third quartiles; and they are denoted by Q1, Q2, and Q3,
respectively.

 Ex: Consider a set of numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. What are

quartiles of the set?

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1.4 Measures of data 1.4 Measures of data

1.4.3 Percentiles, Quartiles, and Standard Scores 1.4.3 Percentiles, Quartiles, and Standard Scores
(measures of position) (measures of position)
Standard Scores (Z-scores)  Standardize values Question:
 A standard score (aka, a z-score) indicates how  How to interpret z-scores?
many standard deviations an element is from the mean. A
standard score can be calculated from the following formula.
(X − μ)
Z=
σ
where
• z is the z-score,
• X is the value of the element,
• μ is the mean of the population,
• and σ is the standard deviation. 45 46

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1.4 Measures of data 1.5 Pattern of data

The 68–95–99.7 Rule 1.5.1 Center
 In 1733, Abraham de Moivre many unimodal and  The center of a distribution is located at the median of the
symmetric distributions, about 68% of the values fall within distribution.
one standard deviation of the mean, about 95%  within  This is the point in a graphic display where about half of the
two standard deviations, and about 99.7%  within three observations are on either side.
standard deviations of the mean  the 68–95–99.7 Rule

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1.5 Pattern of data 1.5 Pattern of data

1.5.2 Spread 1.5.3 Shape
 The spread of a distribution refers to the variability of the  Symmetry  a symmetric distribution can be divided into
data. two parts so that each part is a mirror image of the other.
 If the observations cover a wide range, the spread is larger. If  Number of peaks.
the observations are clustered around a single value, the  Distributions with one clear peak are called unimodal,
spread is smaller.  and distributions with two clear peaks are called bimodal.
 When a symmetric distribution has a single peak at the
center, it is referred to as bell-shaped.

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1.5 Pattern of data 1.5 Pattern of data

1.5.3 Shape
 Skewness  some distributions have many more
observations on one side of the graph than the other.
 Distributions with fewer observations on the right (toward
higher values) are said to be skewed right;
 and distributions with fewer observations on the left
(toward lower values) are said to be skewed left.
 Uniform. When the observations in a set of data are equally
spread across the range of the distribution, the distribution
is called a uniform distribution. A uniform distribution has
no clear peaks.

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1.5 Pattern of data 1.5 Pattern of data

1.5.4 Gap 1.5.5 Outlier
 Gaps refer to areas of a distribution where there are no  Distributions are characterized by extreme values that differ
observations. The figure below has a gap. greatly from the other observations  called outliers.

Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 53 Source: Dr. Le Hoai Long’s lecture note 54

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1.5 Pattern of data 1.6 Displaying and describing data

1.5.5 Outlier (cont.) 1.6.1 Bar Charts
 As a "rule of thumb", an extreme value is often considered to A bar chart is made up of columns
be an outlier if it is at least 1.5 interquartile ranges below the plotted on a graph.
first quartile (Q1), or at least 1.5 interquartile ranges above  The columns are positioned over a
the third quartile (Q3). label that represents a categorical
variable.
 The interquartile range (IQR) is equal to Q3 minus Q1  The height of the column indicates
the size of the group defined by the
column label.

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1.6 Displaying and describing data 1.6 Displaying and describing data
1.6.2 Histograms 1.6.2 Histograms (cont.)
Like a bar chart, a histogram is made up of columns plotted on
a graph. Usually, there is no space between adjacent columns.
Here is how to read a histogram.
 The columns are positioned over a label that represents a
continuous, quantitative variable.
 The column label can be a single value or a range of values.
 The height of the column indicates the size of the group
defined by the column label.

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1.6 Displaying and describing data
The Difference Between Bar Charts and Histograms
 With bar charts, each column represents a group defined by
a categorical variable;
 and with histograms, each column represents a group
defined by a continuous, quantitative variable.
 it is appropriate to talk about the skewness of a histogram.
 How about a bar chart?
1.6 Displaying and describing data
1.6.3 Pie Charts
Pie charts display all the cases as a circle whose slices have
areas proportional to each category’s fraction of the whole.
 Pie charts give a quick impression of the distribution.
Because we’re used to cutting up pies into 2, 4, or 8 pieces,
pie charts are particularly good for seeing relative
frequencies near 1>2, 1>4, or 1>8.

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1.6 Displaying and describing data 1.6 Displaying and describing data
1.6.3 Pie Charts 1.6.4 Dotplot
 Bar charts are almost always A dotplot is made up of dots plotted on a graph.
better than pie charts for  Each dot can represent a single observation or a specified
comparing the relative number of observations.
frequencies of categories.  The dots are stacked in a column over a category
 Pie charts are widely  If the categories are quantitative, the pattern of data in a
understood and colorful, and dotplot can be described in terms of symmetry and skewness
they often appear in reports
 Dotplots are used most often to plot frequency counts within
 problem??.
a small number of categories, usually with small sets of data.

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1.6 Displaying and describing data 1.6 Displaying and describing data
1.6.4 Dotplot 1.6.5 Stemplots
A stemplot (aka, stem and leaf plot) is a type of chart that shows
how individual values are distributed within a set of data.
 A stemplot is used to display quantitative data, generally from
small data sets (50 or fewer observations).
 The entries on the left are called stems; and the entries on
the right are called leaves.
 Stemplots usually do not include explicit labels for the stems
and leaves

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1.6 Displaying and describing data 1.6 Displaying and describing data
1.6.5 Stemplots (cont.) 1.6.6 Boxplot Basics
A boxplot splits the data set into quartiles.
 The body of the boxplot consists of a "box", which goes from
the first quartile (Q1) to the third quartile (Q3).
 Within the box, a horizontal line is drawn at the Q2,
the median of the data set.
 Two vertical lines, called whiskers, extend from the up and
bottom of the box. The up whisker goes from Q3 to the
largest non-outlier in the data set, and the bottom whisker
goes from Q1 to the smallest non-outlier.
 If the data set includes one or more outliers, they are plotted
separately as points on the chart.
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1.6 Displaying and describing data 1.7 Tables

1.6.6 Boxplot Basics (cont.) Data can be presented in table form
 One-way table
 Two-way table

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1.7 Tables 1.7 Tables

1.7.1 One way tables 1.7.2 Two way tables
A one way table is the tabular equivalent A two-way table (also called a contingency table) is a useful tool
of a bar chart. Like a bar chart, a one-way for examining relationships between categorical variables.
table displays categorical data in the form  The entries in the cells of a two-way table can be frequency
of frequency counts and/or relative counts or relative frequencies just like a one-way table
frequencies.
 Frequency Tables: a one way table
shows frequency counts for a particular
category of a categorical variable
 Relative Frequency Tables: a one-
way table shows relative frequencies
for particular categories of a categorical
variable
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1.7 Tables 1.7 Tables

1.7.3 Simpson’s paradox 1.7.3 Simpson’s paradox (cont.)
Simpson's paradox (or the Yule-Simpson effect) is a paradox in  Consider the situation of two contractors in the table below
which a correlation present in different groups is reversed (Good quality/number of contracts)
when the groups are combined.  Who is better? (Long N.D. 2010)
 It occurs when frequency data are hastily given causal
Type of contract
interpretations.
 Simpson's Paradox disappears when causal relations are Civil Industrial Total
brought into consideration (Wikipedia)
Contractor 40/60 13/15 53/75
A
66.6% 86.7% 70.7%
Contractor 5/8 42/50 47/58
B
62.5% 84% 81%
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1.8 Comparing distributions

Four features should be focused when you compare two or
more data sets.
 Center.
 Spread.
 Shape.
 Unusual features (gaps and outliers).

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