AFGHANISTAN: FALLACIES & MISPERCEPTIONS

The current debate on post-US Exit developments in Afghanistan, both in private & official circles and
the media, is riddled with fallacies & misperceptions, which distort perspectives and policy responses.
The oft-repeated phrase that “There is no Military Solution in Afghanistan” is, perhaps, the biggest
fallacy. The Afghan Taliban have steadfastly pursued a military solution in Afghanistan over the past two
decades and are emerging victorious. Faced with the American military colossus, the poorly equipped &
under-resourced Afghan Taliban resorted to a brilliantly conceived Asymmetric War strategy designed
around the use of difficult-to-detect all-plastic IEDs for hit & run operations against the American &
Afghan-government armies, occasionally supplemented by suicide-bombings & assassinations against
selected targets where IEDs were not feasible.
Military Strategies are, and should always be. a part of a larger Political Strategy aimed at achieving clear
Strategic Objectives. In this regard, the Afghan Taliban’s approach has been faultless. They had a clear
strategic objective of eviction of all foreign forces from Afghanistan to clear the field for themselves; their
political strategy was designed accordingly under which they artfully portrayed the Afghan Government
faction as traitorous collaborators of foreign non-Muslim invaders and refused any dealings with it and, in
parallel, focused on providing security & quick justice in areas under their control. Their low-cost
military strategy, designed to support their political strategy, maintained the minimum level of insurgency
needed to keep the enemy locked in a siege environment while carefully avoiding collateral damage to the
greatest extent possible. They played for the long-term as succinctly reflected in their saying “you have
all the watches, we have all the time”. Their aim was clear; bleed & exhaust the enemy by a thousand
cuts; and, meanwhile, let the incompetent & corrupt Afghan Government faction lose credibility over the
long term.
On the other hand, the Americans failed to follow clear & consistent objectives & strategies, which
haphazardly changed with every change of command, whether civilian or military. A Pakistani General
serving on the front-lines on the Pak-Afghan border, derisively labelled the US strategy in Afghanistan as
“a war in search of a strategy”. The Americans badly misread the Afghan political canvas and failed to
articulate an appropriate political strategy. Militarily, they were trapped into a reactive mode and could
not retain the initiative. Faced with a similar situation in the 1980s, the Soviets gave up and accepted
defeat within ten years; the Americans have lasted about twenty years simply because they had much
more resources. As early as 2004/5, key Pakistani officials had started warning the Americans that, sans a
political strategy to co-opt the Afghan Taliban who are the major political force in Afghanistan, USA was
headed for failure in Afghanistan and should not expect Pakistan to blindly follow into disaster. But,
blinded by imperial hubris & arrogance of power, the Americans blundered on, all the while blaming
Pakistan for every reverse they suffered. As expected, the Americans were finally delivered a well-
deserved kick-in-the-butt by an unforgiving history.
Another fallacy is that American Exit will lead to a fresh Civil War in Afghanistan. It should be
understood that this 4-decade old conflict in Afghanistan has, all along, been a civil war between Secular-
Modernists and Religious-Traditionalist factions. The 1978-Saur Revolution, led by soviet-indoctrinated
Secular-Socialist factions & backed by a soviet-trained Afghan Army, triggered the collapse of
Afghanistan’s two century old Socio-Political Compact (Mesaaq-e-Milli) whereunder various ethnic
groups, urban-westernised factions & rural traditionalist elements had been living as compatriots in a
loose tribal confederacy under the erstwhile Durrani Monarchy which served as the pivot of this Meesaq
in the role of a neutral arbitrator-conciliator between these factions. The slaughter of the Durrani
Monarchy in the Saur Revolution triggered the collapse of the Afghan Meesaq and led to the breakout of
civil war between urbanised Secular-Modernists elements in control of government and rural-based
Religious-Traditionalist forces. This civil war has, without break, been raging for the past four decades
and will continue, Americans or no Americans, until a new Meesaq-e-Milli emerges.
The two invasions by foreign military powers, first by USSR and then by USA, invariably intervened on
behalf of the Secular-Modernist governments which were, in both cases, losing to the Religious-
Traditionalist forces. Both foreign invasions distorted & prolonged the normal course of the Afghan civil
war which was otherwise headed for a quick conclusion. Both invaders sought to establish highly
centralised Unitary Governments in Afghanistan which ran contrary to the Afghan political mindset
conditioned by living for over two centuries in a loose tribal confederacy established under the Durrani
Monarchy. Moreover, these two foreign invasions have, unfortunately, served to deepen the ethnic &
tribal divides in Afghanistan. The exit of foreign forces simply led to a new phase of the civil war in its
search for a new Meesaq. Both the Afghan people & the world would be well-served if the Afghan Civil
War is allowed to run its natural course. Considering recent history and deep ethnic & tribal divides, the
Afghans should consider abandoning the quest for a centralised Unitary state and, instead, opt for a
confederal set-up of several different administrative regions roughly following ethnic/tribal lines, with a
common National Council in Kabul responsible for currency, foreign affairs & foreign trade, and defence
coordination based on regional militias.
A common misperception being propagated is that Civil War in Afghanistan will result in a fresh
flood of Afghan refugees & terrorism into Pakistan. For the record, massive spillover of refugees &
terrorism into Pakistan have occurred only during periods of the two foreign invasions into Afghanistan
due to indiscriminate aerial bombings & military operations, which caused massive collateral damage to
life & property inside Afghanistan. There were no such major spillovers during periods of Afghan
infighting except for a few thousand collaborators of foreign invaders who have to flee Afghanistan for
fear of reprisals whenever their patron foreign armies exit.
Today between 2 to 3 million Afghan Refugees continue to reside in Pakistan since the past three decades
and have become a useful part & parcel of society making significant economic contribution towards
Pakistan’s economy and Pak-Afghan trade, both formal & informal. Additionally, these Afghan Refugees
give considerable leverage to Pakistan in regional & Afghan affairs. Therefore Pakistan needs a much
more imaginative policy in this regard than simply wishing the return of Afghan refugees.
Another widespread misperception is that USA has exited Afghanistan. US has only staged a tactical
withdrawal to extricate itself from a prolonged stalemate which had become domestically politically
unsustainable. It has far too many geopolitical stakes which do not allow it to turn its back on this region.
Pak-China CPEC project represents a major break in USA’s China-Containment Policy which USA
cannot tolerate. Nuclear Muslim Pakistan, a recalcitrant Iran, a resurgent Russia are major additional
concerns dictating continued US involvement. Additionally, the Greater Middle East region, of which
Pakistan & Afghanistan are a part, has huge geopolitical importance for the USA and it will not tolerate
intrusion into it by another power; even to the extent of, as on several occasions in the past, going to
another war to maintain its control over it, if ever needed again.
Unsurprisingly, US recently announced sending in 3000 soldiers to help in evacuation of diplomatic staff
from Afghanistan; UK will send in 600. Why are so many soldiers needed for this job when a few air
transport planes can do it in a matter of days, is puzzling question. Another unanswered question is the
actual reason for deployment of NATO Turkish troops to secure Kabul Airport. Yet another question that
disturbs the mind is whether the US intends to pursue a “Korean Model” solution involving administrative
division of Afghanistan between itself and the Afghan Taliban to maintain an indefinite presence in North
Afghanistan. USA has openly announced its intentions to financially & materially support the Afghan
Government & Army against the Afghan Taliban. It has already commenced aerial bombing of Afghan
Taliban targets from its bases in the Middle East which overfly Pakistan territories. Their are reports of its
“strategic allay” India carrying out air raids in south Afghanistan by Indian pilots flying Afghan Air Force
planes or from the Indian air base in neighbouring Tajikistan. The continued use of Pakistani airspace by
US military aircraft for missions in Afghanistan, which was originally based on a post-9/11 UN
Resolution for united effort against Global Terrorism, is no longer valid and is developing into a major
embarrassment for Pakistan. USA should approach UN for a fresh resolution if it desires to continue using
Pakistani airspace against the Afghan Taliban. All this, of course, is dependent on whether the US-trained
Afghan Military will be able to hold its ground against the Afghan Taliban in coming days & weeks.

The Afghan Conflict is not “Pakistan’s War” is yet another misconception that flies in the face of
historical evidence & dynamics. From times immemorial, Central-Asian & European powers have been
regularly invading the South-Asian Subcontinent from beyond the Hindu-Kush mountains. In this regard,
the North-West Subcontinent & its Indus Valley Civilisation (which now constitutes modern-day
Pakistan) has played the role of the “Gate-Keeper of the Hindu-Kush” because it had to bear the initial
onslaught of these invasions from across the Hindu-Kush, whether from up north-west or down south.
There is no way this region (and Pakistan) can ever insulate itself from geopolitical events emanating
from beyond these mountains.
Pakistan is the modern-day Gate-Keeper of the Hindu-Kush. In its short history, Pakistan has had to face
the fallouts of two major military forays by world superpowers into Afghanistan and has successfully
stood its ground. Yet another stormy challenge is developing in the shape of US-China Competition for
world dominance in which Pakistan is caught in “eye of the storm” in a manner of speaking. Both
geography & history, and concomitant geopolitics, conspire against peace in this region. The maintenance
of a large well-equipped military & an effective intelligence arm is a strategic imperative for Pakistan and
the decision to develop its own nuclear deterrence was, most certainly, a timely one.
Perforce, Pakistan has to play the geopolitical game in this turbulent region on the same lines as practised
by other more powerful nations. WE would be well-served by keeping in mind the anonymous adage that
“In geopolitics, rivals are judged, not by their words which are more often than not a smokescreen, but by
their actions which belie their real aims; and strategic responses are conditioned, not on their stated
intentions which can change overnight, but by the capabilities they maintain which require time &
resources to change.
--------------------(Concluded)--------------------