RUTUJK PATIL

(093

AgsIGNeNT-2
Q1) There are two main philosophies :
Bayesian and
frequentist . The frequentist justifies properties of
estimators in terms of hypothetical repeated sample -

how would this from sample if

vary we took many
samples ? The Bayesian accepts probabilities based
on
judgement and
justifies properties of their
estimates in terms of probabilities applied directly
to the unknowns To do so they.
have to have
subjective probabilities about the parameters before
they collect then data .

There are several ways to

The define probability .

subjective approach by Bayesian If

used you
-

are doing a survey , you select a random sample

so the
probability of choosing particular individual
9

is
just the number in the sample divided by the
total population Bayesian 5 would have the
.

same Interpretation because subjective probabilities

are allowed to use hard evidence when there is
any But much of statistics
.

just assumes a
distribution based on past experiences with similar
problems That's why normal distribution is used so
.

often Boyds tarns do the same The main difference .

is that frequentist s don't assume a distribution

don't think they vary either , but their degree
of belief about them is uncertain and reflected
In their probabilities .
Q2 ) 1) In case of simple probability : -

An B is essentially the event A and B both

occurring simultaneously
.

plan B)
N = -

fan BYNG )
where N is a function that gives the number
of elements contained in a specific sets is
the sample space .

A BU

In case of conditional probability .

PCA / B) = NIAN B) IN (B)

because here basically find the number
we want to
of cases for which A is occurring when it is given that
the event B is definitely occurring which is , naturally ,
of B common with A i. e An B-
the
region Here the
been reduced to
just because
" "
sample space has B

we are looking for cases that exist within B

and absolutely not outside it or the past of A that
lies within B
 If we divide both the numerators and the
denominator of the above identify by NIS ) we
get
PCA / B)= Plan B) Alps ? which is the
conventional expression for finding conditional
probability .

2) Mutually exclusive Events Independent Events

→ when the Oau rance is not when the occurrence of
simultaneous for two events one event does not
then are termed as control the happening of
they
Mutually exclusive events the other event then
it is termed as
independent event

→ The sets will not overlap The sets will overlap

In the case ofinmutuahy in the case of
'

exclusive events independent events

→ The mathematical formula the formula of

for mutually events can be independent events can
represented as Poland 47=0 be defined as
PM and YJ pts) PAD
__
103) A = some business education
B =
some Engineering education
Given : -
PCA ) =
65.1 .
=
0.6s

p (B) =
got .
=
0-5
PCANB ) =
20% = 0.2

To find PCAUB )

PCAUB)= PCH ) -1 PCB) - PCANB )

0.65-1 O S
= -
-

0.2
=
0.95

i.The manager had 95% chances had

some business education given that he has
,
some engineering education .

QG) A : first company

B second company
=

[ third
=
company
'
PCA ) Yr =) PCA )
'
Yn
Giger = _-
: -

P (B) Hs PIB 7=1415

'
=

PIC ) =
'
110 '
plc ) 9110 =

To find :-P CHUBU

( :
Independent event)
 PCHUBUC )= 1- PCANBNT )
PCH ) RBI ) PK )
' '
← I -

=\
-1¥ ) 1¥71 :-)
=
0.2¥

Qs ) A Plumbing
=

D= Electrical

Given :-P (A) 213

= PCB )=4q
pfbl )= 51g
PCAUB)= 91s

To find : -

Plan B) =
PCA ) -1 PCB ) -
PCAUB )
=

31T¥ -1s
= 1919s
=

Q6 ) a- = trainee will remain with a company

D= Earns more than 2--50000

Given :
-
PCH ) = 0.6
p( B) = as
PCAOB) =
07
 To find : -
PCBIA )
P CAN B) =
PCH ) + P (B) -
PCAUB )
=
0.6 to 5 -
o
-

7
= O G
-

: .
PCB/A) =
PpY÷3B)
=
0 is
0--6
=

0.6--7

Q2 ) let and D denote events

'

A B, C the that an
,
engineer in years of age
under 30 ,
so years
of age ,
has teaches's degree only , and has 9
master 's degree resptludy ,
.

Therefore : -

(9) The .
probability of an
engineer who has
only
a bachelor 's
degree is :
pic) =

¥80
= 07s

(b) Theprobability of an engineer who has only

a master degree given that he is over .

Piggy ;¥÷
PIM B) = = 0
 (c) The probability of an engineer who is under
's
30 years given that he has only bachelor degree
,

Is :

P%¥Y ,÷¥÷ ¥0
=
MAKE = = 060

G. 8) Let A and B denote one events that the person

is selected in firms N and y respectively then in .

the usual notations we ,

are given :

PCH ) 0-7=7
= PCA ) =
I -0.7=0.3
P (B)
'
PCB 1--0.5=7 = 1-0.5=0 's
p / Ab B l = Or 6
'

PFAU B) ) PCA 'nB )

'
To find : -
= -

=/ -

( PCA )-1 PCB )

' '
-
'
PCA UB
'
) )
= 1- (0.31-0.5-0.6)
=

G. 9) Out
of 50% of population 20% of the males
are unemployed i. e 010
fog 9¥
=
=

Out of 50.1 . the population 5% of the females

are
unemployed
te ✗
E- ¥
" as
÷ .
 Based on the above data we can form the table
as follows : -

Employed Unemployed Total

Males 0.900 0.100 0 so-

female ⑤ 47s 0.025 050

Total 0.875 0.125 1- 00

let male chose be denoted by Mand

a a
female chosen be denoted by F

let U denotes the number of unemployed

persons then

010=0-80
CID
PCMu7=P§Ygy)_
=

Iii ) Paul
PIPE;) g.co#s-- ¥0
=
=

QB
p (a) 43 PHA )=
'
= =) 31s
P (B) =
19120 =) PCB ) '
= V20
P( c) = 9/10 PCC ) '
= 1110

Plan Bnc )= PCH ) PCB) Pcc )

=L:-X:-X :-)
=÷
 '
Plan Bnd = I -
Plan Bnc )
=\
soot
-

=
=

④ 1) Given : -

PCA)= V2 =) PCA ' ) = Yz

P (B) = 113--7 PCB ) = 213 '

Ys =) PCC )
'
PC c) = 31s =

PCD) I 115=1 PCD 1=415

'

DIE> =
116 PCE 'D 516 =

Plan Bncnbn E) = PCA )P(B) p(c) PCD) PCE )

=
# EX :X:-X:)
7¥
Plan Bncnbn E) plan BNCNDNE )
'
I
^

- . = -

= 1-
f-
= 5/6
= 0-83
0112 ) ( i ) total people 390
=

people who said yes = 210

=) Probability 0-5389
=
3¥
=

( I :) total
people who said yes 210 =

said yes from Chennai 60

people who =

Pro
bailing = =
0¥38

Ciii 1total people from chennai

-

= 100

people who said yes 60 =

Probability =

§ = of

) total people said yes = 210

who
who said yes from Mumbai
people so
-

=) Probability :
5/21 =

0^2--38

QB) let say total mail 10000 =

Processed by clerk A- (90/100) 10000

-

-90¥
-

Error = 9000 (0-09) = 160

Processed by cloth D=
(3%0) 10000

= 3500
 Error = 3500C 0 .
0 6) = 210

processed by Clerk c- (25/100) 10000

=

25¥
Error =
250010.03 -77s

Total Error = 160+210-175--545

Palooka )
4¥ 3¥ 0.36
=
= =

Paek B)
¥10s Yg 012
= = =

pccieoh C)
Ifs -2¥
=
=