Vernon's Music store: Number of VCRs sold

180
Number of VCRs sold

160

140

120

100

Yt
80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Month
time Month Yt Yt-1 Yt-2
1 January 123
2 February 130 123
3 March 125 130 123
4 April 138 125 130
5 May 145 138 125
6 June 142 145 138
7 July 141 142 145
8 August 146 141 142
9 September 147 146 141
10 October 157 147 146
11 November 150 157 147
12 December 160 150 157
time Month Yt Yt-1 yt-`ybar yt-1-ybar f**2 FXG
1 January 123 -19 361
2 February 130 123 -12 -19 144 228
3 March 125 130 -17 -12 289 204
4 April 138 125 -4 -17 16 68
5 May 145 138 3 -4 9 12
6 June 142 145 0 3 0 0
7 July 141 142 -1 0 1 0
8 August 146 141 4 -1 16 -4
9 September 147 146 5 4 25 20
10 October 157 147 15 5 225 75
11 November 150 157 8 15 64 120
12 December 160 150 18 8 324 144
Total 1704 1474 843
 Monthly VCR Sales

180

160

140
VCR Sales

120

100

80

60

40

20

Sa le s

0 Fo rec as t(
N 1)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Months
 Monthly VCR Sales

180

160

140
VCR Sales

120

100

80

60

40

20

Sales

0 Fore c a s t
(N 2 )
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Months
 Monthly VCR Sales

180

160

140
VCR Sales

120

100
Sales
Forecast(N1)
80 Forecast (N2)

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Months
Month t Sales Forecast (N2) At - Ft
January 1 123
February 2 130
March 3 125 133.5 -8.5
April 4 138 122.5 15.5
May 5 145 144.5 0.5
June 6 142 148.5 -6.5
July 7 141 140.5 0.5
August 8 146 140.5 5.5
September 9 147 148.5 -1.5
October 10 157 147.5 9.5
November 11 150 162 -12
December 12 160 146.5 13.5
1.65
Month t Sales Forecast(N1) Ft - A t Forecast (N2) Ft - At
January 1 123
February 2 130 123 7
March 3 125 130 -5 133.5 8.5
April 4 138 125 13 122.5 -15.5
May 5 145 138 7 144.5 -0.5
June 6 142 145 -3 148.5 6.5
July 7 141 142 -1 140.5 -0.5
August 8 146 141 5 140.5 -5.5
September 9 147 146 1 148.5 1.5
October 10 157 147 10 147.5 -9.5
November 11 150 157 -7 162 12
December 12 160 150 10 146.5 -13.5

RMSE 11.15592 5.21776