Global Cross Border B2C e-Commerce

Market 2020:
Report highlights & methodology sharing

Apr. 2016
Cross border B2C e-commerce market 2020: report highlights
Cross border B2C e-commerce market forecast by region (US$ bn) Infrastructure readiness
Ease of cross border Tariff, Regional economic
MiddleEast & Africa
994 trade integration & single
Mid-eastern Europe & Central Asia 26
45
market
Latin America
North America 53 Penetration of mobile
Western Europe 826
22 Internet
Asia Pacific 40 177
47
+27.3% 675
34
18
153 Demand – supply dynamism
37
217
530 Local industry structure Development level of
14 133 consumer goods &
28
25 184
401
services sector
10 115
15
22 156 Development of retail Potentials for B2C e-
308
8 98 industry commerce growth
236 10 17 131

6 13
5 82 476 Sizing of local ‘Long tail’ customers to
112 381
67 consumption market be addressed
92 299
73 218 internationally
144
71 99

201 201 201 201 201 201 202

4 5 6 7 8 9
Sources: 0
AliResearch – Accenture, Global Cross Border e-Commerce Market 2020, Jun. 2015
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Cross border B2C ecommerce market definition: in context of global
consumer goods trade

Trading (cross border) Distribution

Traditional cross
1 Traditional Traditional 1 border goods trade
offline offline
trader distribution
2 e-commerce of
2 imported goods
(B2C)

Online Online Cross border B2B +

End-user / 3
Producer e-commerce offline retail
3 e-commerce consumer
platform (cross platform
border, B2B) (domestic) Cross border B2C
4 e-commerce
Integrated e-commerce platform
4 • Cross border ecommerce platforms (Alibaba,
Amazon)
• Online stores of foreign branded producers
• Foreign store webistes + agents
• …

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Market definition & coverage in the report
Criteria
Definition of ‘cross border’
selection
By products: origin, brands,
etc.
Transaction parties in
 different economies
Whether cross border
shipment of goods involved
Whether cross border
payment involved
Whether cross border
transmission of data / info
involved
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Major concerns of the Market definition in the report:
definition Cross Border B2C e-Commerce
Might not really cross Scope of delivery:
border ‘online’ • Physical products
• Digital contents
• Services (OTA, etc.)
Could via agents: to
cover Haitao type of Type of sellers:
deals • Cross border platforms
• Foreign distributors (e.g. retailers)
• Foreign producers / service providers
Might not really ‘B2C’
Delivery methods:
• International parcels
• Delivery from bonded warehouses (to distinguish between country
Localization of payment border and customs border
might lead to misjudge
Payment:
• Banking card
Too vague to define • 3rd party payment platforms
…
4
Our methodology for market sizing and forecast
B2C EC Cross Cross
market border B2C border B2C
size EC size EC market
(historical) (historical) forecast

Leveraged Economies whose cross border B2C e- Regression based forecast modelling:
existing commerce market data are available: • Correlational analysis to identify the major
market stats • Data validation indicators impacting the Cross Border B2C
• Calculation of Cross border B2C penetration
Data penetration (Cross border B2C as % of total • Regression analysis to develop the forecast
validation & B2C e-commerce market) model based on prioritized indicators
cross • Leverage the existing forecast of indicators to
check: Economies whose cross border B2C e- develop the penetration value forecast
Consistency commerce data are unavailable: • Forecast of cross border B2C market size based
of definition • Benchmark against economies with existing on existing B2C market forecast and projected
among data and calculation of cross border market cross border penetration ratio
different size based on existing penetration data Forecast validation & adjustment
data
sources,
etc.

Data & forecast validation & adjustment:

• Field validation : via expert interview, etc.
• Top down – Bottom up validation: data of economies vs. regional aggregates, etc.
• Relevant market cross check: B2C e-commerce vs. retail sales, cross border e-commerce vs. total cross border trade, etc.

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Cross border ecommerce market measurement: rough ideas from
private sector point of view
Following experiences in other industries, a global industry body of (cross border) e-commerce might play an constructive role:

• Constituents of a private sector driven industry body:

– Key industry players: major cross border ecommerce platforms
– National / regional industry associations
– Players in relevant services sectors: payment, logistic services, etc.

• A Specialized Statistics Committee / work group to work on global market stats:

– Standardization of market definition and statistical methodology
– Request members to contribute market data
– Consolidation and validation of contributed data
– Coordinate with public sector for further validation: customs, etc.

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Another aspects of private sector data: rich and insightful data from
e-commerce platforms: case of Alibaba (1/2)

53 2000+ 5400+
Countries / Regions Categories Brands

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 Another aspects of private sector data: rich and insightful data from
e-commerce platforms: case of Alibaba (2/2)

United States
Japan
Germany
Korea
Australia
Netherlands
France
United Kingdom
Italy
New Zealand

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Thank You & Questions
taylor.li.guo@Accenture.com
yan.xuey@alibaba-inc.com