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Why has Australia switched tack on Covid

zero?
By Frances Mao
BBC News, Sydney

3 September

GETTY IMAGES

Australia is pushing to exit lockdowns, but experts say it has a cautious strategy

Australia has changed its Covid strategy: it's time to leave lockdowns and
"come out of the cave", Prime Minister Scott Morrison has said.

With vaccinations accelerating, he says Australians will soon "live with the
virus" for the first time - that is, not try to eliminate it.

It's a drastic shi for a country used to seeing very few infections.
What was the strategy?
It was what some dubbed the "Fortress Australia" plan.

Australia aimed to maintain "Covid zero" by blocking foreign arrivals, hunting

for every infection, and shutting state borders aer outbreaks.

City and state-wide lockdowns have been frequently enacted - sometimes

aer a single case.

Melbourne, for example, has lived through over 200 days of lockdown in the
last two years.

Such measures have drawn criticism for their cost to people's livelihoods and
mental wellbeing.

Stringent state border closures have separated families and prevented many from seeing sick or
dying loved ones

But, until now, they have quelled outbreaks and allowed many Australians to
live freely.

So what changed?
The Delta variant upended Australia's playbook. In June, it took hold in Sydney
before spreading to Melbourne and Canberra.
State governments plunged their capitals back into lockdown. Currently, one
in two Australians must stay home.

It has helped to suppress the spread. In Sydney, the R number - the rate at
which the virus is spreading - has dropped from 5 to 1.3.

What is the R number?

But authorities have said Covid zero is no longer achievable.

That's intensified criticism on the Morrison government over Australia's low

vaccination levels, with many accusing it of complacency. Mr Morrison had in
April claimed vaccinating was "not a race".

But he has now followed the New South Wales state government in saying
that vaccinations are Australia's only path to reopening. Victoria - which
includes Melbourne - has this week also abandoned Covid zero.

So what's the new plan?

About 36% of Australians over 16 are fully vaccinated - far from enough to
exit lockdowns, experts say.

"This groundhog day has to end, and it will end when we start getting to 70%
and 80%," Mr Morrison said last week.

But Australia is picking up pace - it is now jabbing arms faster than the UK and
US did at their peaks.

At current rates, Australia could vaccinate 70% of its over-16s by mid-

October.

The nation has also begun vaccinating children over 12.

 GETTY IMAGES

More than 100,000 people are getting vaccinated in New South Wales every day

The nation plans to ease out of lockdowns then, and vaccinated people will be
granted more freedoms.

But it will continue testing and tracing, and retain low-level restrictions like
mask-wearing and social distancing. Smaller lockdowns will also be a
possibility but are considered unlikely.

"The plan that is proposed is actually very thoughtful and careful," says Prof
Ivo Mueller, a population health and immunity expert from the Walter and
Eliza Hall Institute in Melbourne.

"It's not 'Freedom Day', it's not 'let's throw everything out the window and go
party' - that's not what's being proposed."

When will international borders open?

That will happen when Australia hits the 80% threshold. But travel will be
open to designated "safe" countries only, and to people who are vaccinated.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has said she's aiming for a November
reopening, but some experts say it could happen sooner.

"At 80% double dosage, we anticipate allowing our citizens to access

international travel and also to welcoming home Australians through Sydney
Airport," Ms Berejiklian said this week.

The national plan also allows for "travel bubbles" to safe countries, indicating
vaccinated foreign nationals will also be able to enter.

Airline Qantas has flagged re-opening routes in December to the UK, US,
Singapore, Canada and Japan.

But is everyone happy?

Polling shows 62% of Australians support the government's reopening plan.

But many Australians baulk at the idea of "living with the virus", aer being
used to low infection rates.

The government's modelling, prepared by the Doherty Institute, estimates

that re-opening at 70% could lead to 13 deaths in six months - provided
testing and tracing is at its peak But that could rise to 1 500 if there are lesser
testing and tracing is at its peak. But that could rise to 1,500 if there are lesser
health measures, the projection says.

Covid crisis causes fury in Aboriginal communities

It was only this week that Australia recorded its 1,000th Covid death, the last
G20 country to do so.
So psychologically, it's a big change in mind set, says Prof Mueller.

More than 90% of Australia's cases have occurred around Sydney and
Melbourne. But six of Australia's eight states and territories have seen little of
the virus at all.

"They basically have no transmission and no restrictions, people basically live

normal lives so telling them they have to face the virus is really, really hard,"
Prof Mueller says.

Political fight
So, Covid-free parts of the country disagree with the federal government and
other states over strategy.

Under Australia's federalism system, state governments have control over

health, policing, and internal borders.

Queensland and Western Australia are now refusing to open their states while
Sydney sees more than 1,000 infections a day.

"I just cannot understand why there are people over there saying we should
deliberately infect ourselves," Western Australia Premier Mark McGowan has
said.
 EPA

Authorities say the nation's hospitals are prepared and will be ready to cope

But Mr Morrison argues those states can't hide from the virus forever.

"Most states in Australia need to realise that eventually they have to come off
Covid zero, because it's just not sustainable forever," says Prof Mueller.

"You have to start preparing people for what life looks like, you have to start
looking for solutions to the problem rather than just stopping at the problem."

What can Australia learn from overseas?

Much can be gleaned from other countries about how to re-open safely and
fine-tune risk, experts say.

Could social distancing be a requirement at schools, like they are in France and
Mexico? With travel, could Australia adopt rapid diagnostic tests used in
Europe and North America? What's the best vaccine passport to allow
movement safely?

Experts stress that Australia needs to now focus on vaccinating particularly

at-risk groups, such as indigenous communities, before reopening.

Covid crisis causes fury in Aboriginal communities

Watch: How to keep kids safe as they return to school

They note that Australia's reopening plan has also already been shaped by the
UK and US experiences.

While Delta has driven infection waves in both nations, vaccinations are vastly
reducing serious illnesses and deaths.

"That gives us reassurance that we're on the right track with the vaccines,"
says Prof Mueller.

Australia's plan to re-open at 80% is a higher bar than the 54% in the UK,
where the level of vaccination is now at about 80% of the eligible population.
In Denmark, where 70% are vaccinated, almost all restrictions have been
dropped.

Singapore, which hit 80% this week, is also ahead in its re-opening plans but is
taking a cautious approach like Australia, keeping travel to safe nations and
maintaining restrictions like mask-wearing.

R l t dT i
Related Topics

New South Wales Sydney Australia

More on this story

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