1: Getting Started Delphi method Copyrights and Trademarks Course Navigation The Delphi method is a means of reaching consensus among a group of experts. It was developed by the Rand Corporation for the U.S. Department of Defense in the 2: Risk management theory 1950s as a way to capture the opinions of experts from many areas to establish policy and focus expenditures to counter potential Soviet military attacks. The initial problems investigated were large and complex, with many experts in far-ranging fields who had widely varying opinions, but the technique works well for smaller Components of risk problems with fewer experts. Components of risk: Question Discrete and recurring risks The Delphi method is an appropriate tool for risks when there is a lack of historical data and no accepted approach for predicting the risk outcome but experts are available. Risks affect key IBM business objectives The outcome from the method is a project risk exposure for the risk under review. Why is managing risk important? Managing risk sooner rather than later The project manager's role in risk management The project manager's role in risk management: Qu Risk management framework Risk management framework (Continued) Self-Check and Reflection Fast Points 3: Risk identification Risk identification step inputs Risk identification step inputs (continued) Risk factors Risk factors: Question Risk factors (Continued) Click the Next button if you would like to view detailed steps for using the Delphi method to analyze project risk. Otherwise, click skip the detailed steps and advance to Risk triggers and risk indicatorsStrengths and weaknesses of the Delphi method. Risk triggers and risk indicators (Continued) Other risk factors Preferences