Tugas 1

Mata Kuliah : Pemodelan Matematika

Kode/SKS : MAT1.62.5006/4
Program Studi/Fakultas : Matematika/FMIPA
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Carilah masing-masing 2 artikel jurnal internasional terbaru (terbitan tahun

2016-2021) tentang pemodelan matematika untuk tujuan pemodelan
(pemahaman dan prediksi/simulasi). Jadi ada 4 artikel yang mesti anda
laporkan.

Laporkan masing-masing artikel dalam bentuk format berikut

Judul Artikel Development of Mathematic Learning Devices using Discovery

Learning Models with Riau Cultural Context to Improve Students
'Mathematic Problems Understanding and Solving Ability
Tahun 24 Jan 2021
Penulis Casmi Fitri Yani, Atma Murni, Yenita Roza
Afiliasi/Universitas Mathematics Education Postgraduate Program FKIP Riau
University, Pekanbaru
Tujuan Pemodelan In the application of the discovery learning model, the initial stage
is to provide a stimulus or stimulation by providing concrete
examples of mathematical concepts related to everyday life. Things
that are closely related to the lives of students are the culture in
their environment. Cultivating cultural values can be done in
mathematics learning in schools (Fajriah, 2018). Mathematics
learning needs to link mathematics material with culture so that
students feel the cultural connection with the mathematics material
they are learning.
Variabel*) models with the Riau cultural context on the material of building
flat-sided spaces
Parameter*) The development model used is the Borg and Gall model
which includes: (1) research and data collection; (2)
planning; (3) development of the initial product draft;
(4) initial field trials; (5) revision of trial results; and (6)
dissemination and implementation.
Konstanta*) The data collection technique was carried out by validating learning
devices. Learning tools are said to be valid if the percentage of
validation is more than 70% and can be used if the percentage of
readability is more than 70% and the minimum level of practicality
achieved is practical
Fakta In fact, the KPM and KPMM of Indonesian students are still low.
Based on the PISA survey by the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD) which is conducted once in
three years, Indonesia is in the following rankings: 39 out of 41
countries in 2000, 38 out of 40 countries in 2003, 50th out of 57
countries in in 2006, ranked 61 out of 65 countries in 2009, ranked
64 out of 65 countries in 2012, ranked 69 out of 76 countries in
2015, and ranked 73 out of 79 countries in 2018 (Nuraini et al.,
2017; Tohir, 2019 ).
The results of the PISA study illustrate that the ability of Indonesian
students to answer international standard questions is still low,
especially for KPM and KPMM.
Asumsi Overall, students can find the right formula at the data

Klasifikasi Model**)
Interpretasi
Keterangan:
* Jika ada beserta satuannya
**Coret salah satu
collection stage based on the experiments they do. In the
process of finding the formula, students can develop
their KPM on indicators linking one concept to another.
This is in line with the results of research by Hutagalung
(2017) which states that the discovery learning model
guides students in concept discovery and students can
construct their own ideas.
Diskrit/Kontinu**)
Statis/Dinamis**)
Deterministik/Probabilistik**)
Disiplin Ilmu: Culture
Bidang Matematika: matematika komputasi,
matematika terapan,aljabar,statistika

Judul Artikel Mathematical modeling and mechanisms of pattern formation in

ecological systems: a review
Tahun 15 May 2020
Penulis Gui-Quan Sun · Hong-Tao Zhang · Jin-Shan Wang · Jing Li · Yi
Wang · Li Li · Yong-Ping Wu · Guo-Lin Feng · Zhen Jin
Afiliasi/Universitas Department of Mathematics, North University of China,
Tujuan Pemodelan Thiswork offersassistanceforbetterunderstandingthecomplexity of
ecosystems and provides new insights for selforganizations
evolution and ecosystem protection. We hope that our results may
be applied in other related fields such as epidemiology, medical
science, atmospheric science and so on.
Variabel*) Pattern Dynamics·Ecological Systems· Mathematical Modeling ·
Mechanisms · Spatial Diffusion
Parameter*) [1]. Arid ecosystems are one of the most important real
ecosystems in nature, and regular pattern formation can
be presentin the form of stripes, labyrinths and so on.
For example, one can find labyrinth pattern of bushy
vegetation in Niger, see Fig. 2. In particular, these
vegetation patterns characterizing the distribution of the
vegetation can beused to show early signals for
vegetation protection. There are many factors affecting
the growth and distribution of the vegetation [2],
including climatic factor (illumination, temperature and
rainfall), geographical condition (high mountain and
flatground)and anthropogenic factor (graving).
Konstanta*) Among many ecological patterns, we are in terestedin two types of
them: spatial patterns of young mussel beds and vegetation in arid
or semi-arid environment
Fakta we want to pose three possible directions which may be the
potential hot topics in the future studies. The first one is to reveal
the influences of global warming on the dynamical behavior so
fecological systems in both time and space[117].This research field
is getting more and more attention due to the increased
temperature,alternation of wetting anddrying,extreme precipitation
and drought and so on [118–120]. The second one is the feedback
of pattern formation on the functions, namely how pattern structures
affect the robustness of ecosystems[121].For example,climate
change has influences on the formation of vegetation patterns and
mean while patterns of vegetation have feedback on the evolution
of climate. Specifically, unstable pattern may induce the climate to
be much drier while stable pattern may leadit to be much wetter.The
lastone is the combination of big data with ecological patterns on
 the evolutions of ecosystems. Typically, if we take China as an area
to study the pattern evolution of vegetation, then plenty of data are
needed. In this case, big data analysis is required to reveal the
mechanisms of vegetation pattern dynamics and thus more accurate
results will be obtained.
Asumsi [1]. Arid ecosystems are one of the most important real
ecosystems in nature, and regular pattern formation can
be presentin the form of stripes, labyrinths and so on.
For example, one can find labyrinth pattern of bushy
vegetation in Niger, see Fig. 2. In particular, these
vegetation patterns characterizing the distribution of the
vegetation can beused to show early signals for
vegetation protection. There are many factors affecting
the growth and distribution of the vegetation [2],
including climatic factor (illumination, temperature and
rainfall), geographical condition (high mountain and
flatground)and anthropogenic factor (graving).
Klasifikasi Model**) Diskrit/Kontinu**)
Statis/Dinamis**)
Deterministik/Probabilistik**)
Disiplin Ilmu: geografi
Bidang Matematika: matematika komputasi,
matematika terapan,aljabar,statistika
Interpretasi
Keterangan:
* Jika ada beserta satuannya
**Coret salah satu

Judul Artikel Mathematical Modeling and Simulation of the COVID-19

Pandemic
Tahun 2020
Penulis Günter Bärwolff
Afiliasi/Universitas Department of Mathematics, Technische Universität Berlin, D-
10623 Berlin, Germany; baerwolf@math.tu-berlin.de
Tujuan Pemodelan use an SIR-type model to understand and analyze the COVID-19
pandemic with the aim of stopping or reducing the spread of the
COVID-19 virus.
The dynamic development of sub-populations of susceptible (S),
infected (I), and recovered (R) people in a certain region—for
example, the population of a country or a part of a federation—
depending on non-pharmaceutical interventions is the aim of the
modeling.
Variabel*) COVID-19
dynamics of COVID19 in Berlin,Germany
Parameter*) estimation of the parameter β is complicated but successful in
most of the considered countries and regions. The results of the
solution of the minimum problem (6) to evaluate β are, in most
cases, better than the results of the minimization of function (5)
with respect to the fitting of the real data
Konstanta*) The total number COBID-19 for Germany is guessed to be 70
million
Fakta used a modified SIR model to describe the progression of the
COVID-19 pandemic. I find that the timing of the lockdown is
crucial in the progression of a pandemic. It could be shown that a
very early start of limited social distancing measures of a period
of ∆t days leads only to a displacement of the climax of the
pandemic, but not really to an efficient flattening of the curve of
the number of infected people.
Asumsi For the calibration of the SIR model, i.e., the evaluation of the
parameter β, the non-linear regression comes up with significantly
better results than the log–linear regression. This is evident with
 the comparison of the graphs of the evaluated exponential
functions.
It must be noted again that the parameters β and κ were guessed
very roughly. In addition, the percentage representing the group
of high-risk people, α, is possibly overestimated. Depending on
the capabilities and performance of the health systems of the
respective countries, those parameters may look different. The
interpretation of κ as a random variable is thinkable.
Klasifikasi Model**) Diskrit/Kontinu**)
Statis/Dinamis**)
Deterministik/Probabilistik**)
Disiplin Ilmu: matematika
Bidang Matematika: statistik matematika,
analisis matematika, aljabar,matematika
komputasi
Interpretasi

Keterangan:
* Jika ada beserta satuannya
**Coret salah satu

Judul Artikel Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals

in Bahia, Brazil
Tahun 2020
Penulis Juliane F. Oliveira , Daniel C. P. Jorge , Rafael V. Veiga1,
Moreno S. Rodrigues , Matheus F. Torquato , Nivea B. da Silva,
Rosemeire L. Fiaccone, Luciana L. Cardim, Felipe A. C. Pereira ,
Caio P. de Castro, Aureliano S. S. Paiva, Alan A. S. Amad ,
Ernesto A. B. F. Lima, Diego S. Souza, Suani T. R. Pinho, Pablo
Ivan P. Ramos & Roberto F. S. Andrade
Afiliasi/Universitas Instituto de Matemática e Estatística, Universidade Federal da
Bahia, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
Tujuan Pemodelan Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but
current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain
insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which
could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected
cases contribute to a∽55% increase in R
Variabel*) COVID-19
dynamics of COVID19 in Bahia
Parameter*) The parameters of this model are partially locally informed using
data from hospitals dedicated to treating COVID-19 patients in
the region, and partly calibrated against the data (cases, deaths)
provided by local health authorities, with optimal parameters
identified using particle swarm optimization metaheuristics. This
model was applied to study the ongoing COVID19 outbreak in
the state of Bahia, Brazil, an example of a lowresource setting
with pronounced inequalities in healthcare access, but could be
extended and is directly applicable to other regions, offering the
potential to aid in setting targets that may guide to the analysis of
the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to informing the
extent of governmental measures required. Finally, we performed
an ex-post evaluation of the COVID-19 epidemic in Bahia using
data that became available after the initial analysis, focusing on
the actual clinical/ICU beds usage during the period, the number
of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and the utility of the proposed
model to describe the epidemic in real-time.
Konstanta*) COVID-19 in 14.8 million individuals in Bahia
Fakta Mathematical models are proving instrumental in studying the
current COVID-19 pandemic7, as well as in driving governmental
policy. A hallmark of the latter was the radical shift in actions of
some governments defending “herd immunity” strategies, as
models produced by the Imperial College London projected
 massive death tolls before reaching this objective8. Substantial
insights into the dynamics of disease spread can be gained by
using compartmentalized models, such as 3-compartment SIR
(susceptible-infected-recovered)9. Models that build on these
principles have flourished in the recent literature, even extending
the number of compartments to study other key aspects of
COVID-19, including the role of asymptomatic
transmission10,11, social distancing, and quarantine
strategies3,12–15, as well as postepidemic scenarios, e.g. the
probability of novel outbreaks16,17. The need for hospitalization
under various condit
Asumsi Model sensitivity analysis. Wefirst conducted a sensitivity
analysis to evaluate the most influential parameters of the model.
Of note, the variance-based method used accounts for interactions
among the model variables. These results revealed the factor that
reduces the infectivity of the asymptomatic/non-detected, δ, to be
among the most influential parameters to every model output
during the whole period evaluated. Also, the transmission rate β
was identified as exerting an important role in the model
dynamics, as expected. Particularly, during the first 30 days β0 is
the most important parameter in the system, as indicated by
higher values of the total effect index (ST). After this period, the
importance of β0 decreases as that of β1 increases, eventually
superseding the former as the most important parameter in the
system. For H, U, and D, the most influential parameter during
the initial stages of the simulation (before day 15) is the
proportion of symptomatic needing hospitalization or ICU, h,
together with the transmission rate (Supplementary Figs. 1, 2).
The full analysis is presented in Supplementary Note 2.
Klasifikasi Model**) Diskrit/Kontinu**)
Statis/Dinamis**)
Deterministik/Probabilistik**)
Disiplin Ilmu: matematika
Bidang Matematika: statistik matematika,
analisis matematika, aljabar,matematika
komputasi
Interpretasi
Keterangan:
Pemodelan Matematika
* Jika ada beserta satuannya
**Coret salah satu