VND IRECT TCT BIEN LUC DAU KHI (POW) — CAP NHAT Gia thi trréng Gié myc tigu \VN010.500 ‘YND15.000 Ngay 23/08/2021 Trién vong ngan han: Kha Quan ‘Trin vong dai han: Kha Quan Binh gid: Kha Quan Consensus": Mua 10 Gi0-1 Bano Gia mye téu'Consensus: 14% Thay 46 trong yéu trong bao céo > EPS 2021/22/23 tang lbalugt 5.1816, 79022.4% Din bién gia G20 rnd §2 tub (VND) 14750 Tp nhdt 52 tun (VND) 9.400 GTGDBQ3 théng (tr VND) 120.135 Thi gid wéa () VND) 26580 Free oat (%) 6 PE wugt(x) 108 PrB hin tal 0) 089 Co chu sé how PN 79.9% hae 41.4% ‘Nout: VNO RESEARCH ‘Chuyéin vien phan teh: Nguyén Ha Due Tang ‘Ture nouyenduc@wndirect comm NO ome) Khuyén nghj KHA QUAN Ty sult ob tire 0.00% Nganh ign Tich luy cho nhivng ngay giéng bao ‘Trong 6721, igi nhugn (LN) rang cia POW tang 16% svck lén mirc 1.384 ‘ty déng, hoan thanh 60% dy bao ca nam clia chung t6i Chung 161 digu chinh tang EPS 2021/22/23 lén lan luot 5,1%/14,7%/22,4% voi mic san lugng cao hon. ‘anh gid Kha quan véi gia muc tiéu cao hon 15.000 dicp Két qua kinh doanh 6121: Tét hon mong doi Trong 6121, tng san lugng POW giam 14% svck xuéng 9.488 ty déng do san long dién khi va than giém (-24%I-2% svck), trong khi sn wong thuy dign tang an tung 76% svek nhé diéu kién thuy van thuan igi. Doanh thu 6721 gi nhe 0,4% svck nhé mirc tang 14% gia ban trung binh (ASP). Bién LN {96p gidm 2 diém % voi nguyén nhan chinh dén tir gidm sn lung dién hi Chi phi ban hang va quan Iy doanh nghigp gid 26% svck, ahty khoan dy phong gidm 95% svek. Khodn thu nhap tai chinh rong tang 144% nhor khoan loi nhuan mot an va chi phi lai suat thp hon svek. Do d6, LN rong 6721 tang 16% svck lén 1,384 ty dng, hod thanh 60% dy bao c& ndm cia ching ti Trién vong 2021-23: San Iugng dign sé din duge phuc hdi Chung t0i ky vong san Iugng cla POW sé gidm 5% svck vac nam 2021 va tang lai lan iot 16%/1% trong nam 2022/23 vei san lurong tur nha may nhiét ign phyc hdi. D6: véi tir loai dién, ching t6i ky vong sén lurong dign than sé khong thay d6i nhiéu, sén iuong thuy dign sé ting 44% svck nam 2021 va gidm 1824/4% vao nam 2022/23, va san lung dién khi tang 31%/3% svck va0 nam 2022/23. LN rng POW ky vong gidém 1,3% svck nam 2021 va tang lai lan wot 2024/3,3% trong nam 2022/23, Nha may dign khi Nhon Trach 384 sé la dong lye tang truéng dai han én cubi thang 8, POW sé chét g6i thu EPC Nhon Trach 384 — nha may dign LNG du tien cla dat nude, Dy an bao gbm hai nha may voi tng cong sult 1500MW, sir dung LNG nhap khdu tir kho LNG Thi Vai, va dy kién hoat dong vao Q4/23 va Q2/24. Ching t0i hy Vong céc nha may dign nay sé giup POW tng doanh thu 24,2% svck tr 2024 dén 2025, Banh gia Kha quan voi gia myc tiéu cao hon 15.000 dicp ‘Chung t6i nang gia muc tiéu lén 15.000d/ep (+11% sv bao cao true) voi marc tang EPS 202/22/23 lan luot Ia 5,1%/14,796/22,4%. Ching t6i tin rng d dén lic dB tich luj 08 phiBu nay véi ni ro gidm gia thdp va ng truting doanh thu 6n dint, Rai ro gidm gia bao gdm (1) thiéu nhién liéu (than, khi) gay gidn Goan hoat dong sn xudt, (2) Nhon Trach 384 hoan thanh lau hon dy kién, Tidm nang tang gia bao gém san long dign cao hon du kién, “Téng quan tai chinh (VND) A422 ETE Doorh utube) 050 ——so.180 ——asene 37 708 Tang trdng OT thud (16.1%) 14% 18.2% 6.0% Bién igi nhusgn gop 15.4% 37% 134% 27% Bin EBITDA 219% 217% 20.3% 19.4% LN ng (5) 2.365 2334 2.608 2.008 “Tang wong UN rng (5.0%) 3%) 20.1% 3.4% “Tang tw6ng LN cét 6 EPS ca bin 1010 or 1397 1238 EPS didu chsh 1010 907 1197, 4238 BvPS 72.186 12.913, 14.105 15.325 ROAE 85% 79% 89% 8.4% Navin: VND RESEARCH 1DIRECT Nese mse) VN TICH LUY CHO NHUNG NGAY GIONG BAO. ‘Banh gid Kha quan voi gia myc tiéu cao hon 15.000d/cp. ‘Ching tdi thich POW vi: (1) POW Ia mét trong nhiing céng ty phat dign dau nganh voi téng céng suat Jen aén 4.200MW. Bang chi y, POW 1a doanh nghiép di dau trong Ninh vue ién khi hign nay, si hiru ba nha may voi cOng suat dat 2.700MW (chiém 28% téng thi phan dién khi) cng voi hai dy an quan trong va dang trong qué trinh xy dyng ld Nhon Trach 3&4 (750MWinha may). (2) Dy an Nhon Trach 384 la hai dy n trong diém cla POW voi ting mire dau tur dat 34.000 ty dng, va day sé la dong Ie chinh cho tiém nang tang trying atia POW trong dai han. Ching ti kj vong Nhon Trach 384 $6 déng 96p 36% vao tng doanh thu ciia POW khi Gi vao hoat déng (3) Dy théo Quy hoach dién Vill (QHD 8) I ban dap cho xu huéng phat tin cae nha may dién khi do: (1) Theo ké hoach, céng suat lap dat dién khi sé é tang nhanh nhat v6i tang tring kép (CAGR) dat 8,4% trong giai doan 2021- 2045, va (2) cac nha may din chay bang khi sty dung nhién liGu LNG s@ duge tap trung phat trién voi tang trudng kép dat 16% trong giai doan 2021-30. (4) Voi tién vong tang gid 42%, POW la mot co oi dau tu t6, dae biBt tren 6c 4 dai han do POW la mot cb phiéu phdng thd, mang trong minh nhing trién vong dai han va duge hudng igi tu sy tang trvdng muc teu thy dién manh mé, dac biét Ia khi Viet Nam dug dy bao s8 buéc vao giai Goan thigu ién trong nhang nam toi. Hon nira, gia co phiéu cia POW da gidm 25,3% ke tir dau ndm va hign dang & mire gié hap dn d8 tich lu. Ching téi danh gia Kha quan POW voi gia muc tiéu cao hon 15.000d/cp (11% sv bao céo trude dé cila ching tdi) voi EPS nam 2021/22/23 tang Jén lan lugt la 5,1%/14,7%/22,4%. Gia myc tiéu cho 1 nm cilia ching tdi dya trén hai phuong phap din g/4 OCF va EVIEBITDA vei ty trong tvong duong: Dinh gid DCF 10 nm (WAC: 12,4%, COE: 15,1%, LTG: 1,0%) a8 phan dnh quan diém than trong cla ching tdi vé ting truéng cla POW. Ching t6i tin rang dinh gia DCF 1a mot phuong phap hop ly do POW cé dong tién dn dinh va dé dy doan. ‘+ EVIEBITDA voi he 96 nhan 7,1x (tang tir mirc 6,6x trong dy béo true ca ching 101) 48 phan én niém tin lon hon cua chung 101 va0 trién vong thu nhap ciia POW khi thyc hién hai nha may dién khi Nhon Trach 384. Rai ro giém gia ‘+ Lan gin cdch x2 hoi todn quée kéo dai hon dy Kién 88 gay can ter su phuc hi cia hoat déng sén xudt, digu nay c6 thé lam anh huréng tryetigp t3i mirc iu thy dign nang ‘+ Vige thidu ngudn cung nbién ligu (than, LNG) ciing sé lam gidm sén lugng dién san xual ‘+ Thai gian hoan thanh Nhon Trach 384 dai hon dy kién. Tim ning tang gia + San uong dign va gia ban binh quan dién ki cao ham so vér dy kién vin. drec.com. vn 2VNDIRECT Hinh 1: Dinh gid DOF ~Téng hop dy phéng dong tién VNDIRECT RESEARCH QONpniad ha (md Trubs BRT (OM pNaduts TSO FOrF (lay erg Sb na es Hint 1: Chi phi vn (2650) est) (285 6257 3.736) 4) 10) (s39) 52) 102) 2es4 2054 25s 3207 3299 ‘4 oot 7 sot 8 (21) 677) 85) (e450) © 4088 (245) 029) 1574 983 Ngubn: VNDIRECT RESEARCH inh 2: WACC & ting tring di han hiphivea subtph ire 30% Bea 4 Prinbord re Hox rm pin 189% gud: VNDIRECT RESEARCH Hinh 3: Tang hop WAGE & tang wrong dann Ga doar rtp wa Ny 14.100) Tra 2%) 150% 10% gud: VNDIREGT RESEARCH ‘Tang wv di hon Phong phi a _Gieméiedpndu Ty gag Gameoty tong airge aegin ToegbenEVEBTDA 202122 1% 14508 Som 7298 Garey 1048 Nab: VNOIRECT RESEARCH Hint 4:0 sinh doanh noi cing nodoh Tia os oe cong ty masicomner "7" gong ome YS wee) © SRP avin) EVEBTDAG) ROE (%) no ae the o mavyén touyén Hy) wuss 2001 ama 2m_mm_201_om_101_ m2 ing rb nod NatoRCom hd MLK AMCEgdyKKN 8) —~NA O87 138-128 t0% 0707 2829 58 J8WEvom) Us IGWREgay HIN 23860 —-HA S319 402 344 MOK 27-25 154151 as Anita WonwgyCoLs —O005E1CHEQU_KKN 366 NA 1281-71-62 1280% NA MANA MA 74 FintGenCop FOENPM Egy HIN 2500 «MA a5 65-62 OEx 07 06 363} 99 Tang beh zest My toe Ata 7878 Eg ng ong ibe Nigiri Prog FNOVNEQSY—-RKN 19300 NA 38251 M559 131231 NA Sa Nitrile ——-PPCVNEQay KAN 24050 —~ MA az? 13084 GOs ta ta 05103 e836 Trung bet sa 108 129 tam td td TA 10386 HN PVP POWWNERy Wogan 11900 16000 1160 1270 1151 GIR 089 08 S39 GR 7277 eu te 2012021 gute: Bloomberg, VNDIRECT RESEARCHVNDIRECT inh 5: Két qua kin doanh 6T21 cia POW Ney See to Két qua kinh doanh 6121; Tét hon mong doi sworn yeah. cam.vm war prone Bonvi tog a22t_ca20 tsvek 6121 ora0 siswch “wate Nin dt “Tg san wong ain wang 6721 gOS gu Kn open ce Teng sin ivong Cre oan nghip}va gure 1% veh Sn agg ign gan mg I do | am sm8 ‘nase 99m 19% __ Som enineomue gamsankrong tong ga Soon ny. ‘Staug 840101672 tip hens kjsergen cing Bet BK oy ioch im (QCA a 2 sin org im 20% sc vg 8724 do tb sng AF Prone rg. eb rg ya na gam on rb crm ci ray {ong rg rg Gen Sdrsman 0S GU2 i mae EVN cing ath {eg 25 bay arc rg volt {2)Nton Tc 182 nae ong STZ pi Un uct Out 19% nck i tn Slang co punt egmtamciaSosmngrgp conta ewig ana bon ance, VN wstenhuy ing Sent ae rgulnnrgivgrg to nce Sugg tr da Bee breech sh bcd eee Toc 182 gan 3 99,61 sewtegnar per azn 2mm sca7 esas 24% aux rage. arg Arg ' go meen bong dn eto 21. woth recn ev¥e 80 reittegnran pole 2174 ee 3650 4029 2% aay 6 ng dt hun heh 68% ay png him ea cg Cac era nay 000 (Oahren Hint) co mechan Py ana ‘Sr mdtrg ram ray ba 88 eat nary aes mtr wr Saker ‘Swotid rapenat Hob nn, Ouran crt eye ony ra mayate 21th ee 285 Toy arm 2H cement ghdo rary 2021 i bantinn gata {il bin inn gut (ASP) ing 14% avek trong OTR chyba do ASP ei non tue 1368 20h tee se ee eteng exe (i tng Wn coc hid a ran db We tra it in Doce Giapanagnies va 40) 50% tse 1478 20% ‘Gabanornaneor S12 try 2051 laden setae sar, 14 9% 108 tat Gs strinan gird me Enconvcg he 1 ack org Tt Gaventryaa tama 1402 9% 1188 1408 9% ia ry snag 8% Yong 2 ‘oan th 62 gh ing theo dy bdo i ching (hon tian 46% phongc abm)va doanh thu G22 ang ah sek do tne Doan th habe 7956 7708 3% 15617 1858 94% 46% wongnmlaan png gam Loienn ange Hid 1226 ta 2020 2308 89M aT san LN gp iim 2b nude ebay emi gr men ony Bie Ne 1% 17% iple 10% 10% 2p HON pts Ta Civ phivanarg asin doar pid (LON) 0221 gm 45% sc ome ‘cm phivannag a On 20 495 45% 1_517__28%_ S44 pm eaeAroaney prong 2209) roy 22D SrgeEn 131) 9019 27 ‘Thus beh 6T2 eg machehé Modis mt be a ng Tustgp wien 38020477457 290.8% _ 7am Uoslwdn PUM ng Punta rec cy 9 ond Hg (S54) ‘pil ch pdm man torg 0221 cas om mp chit wr cin compan W972 2h 22658 So eg, Lriienebetng bus M106 erm 72105 50m am ir 6121 eas hon a0 bl dy Bbe eb ching AL EOK ay pring ed ro ere 753 0h 13k 1497 16% 6am ndevatdng HO sek Nguén: VNOIRECT RESEARCH, 840.¢40.¢Ong ly Trién vong 2021-23: San legng sé din phyc hd Tinh trang thiéu dign sé gia tang ké tir nam 2022 Ching t6i ky vong su phuc h&i trong mire tiéu thu dién nang s8 ¢6 igi cho oée nha may nhiét dién cla POW. Dich Covid-19 sé s6m durgc kiém soat va mirc phy tai dign sé tang tr lai, dac biét tai khu vye Mién Nam va tai céc khu céng ighiép ttr Q4/21. Bén canh 46, theo BO Céng Thuong (MOIT}, Viet Nam sé bu6c vao giai doan thiéu cin tir nam 2021 do nhu cau dién tang manh voi tang trudng kép ude tinh dat 8,9% trong giai doan 2021-26. Tuy nhién, méi loai nguén dién sé c6 xu hung va trién vong khac nhau, tai nhing giai doan Khao nhau dya trén dac diém va diéu kién dau vao.VNDIRECT ial dogn 2020-26 (Bom vi: ty kWh) « owed et “ull ull al | wth & LESSEE ESSE SSI ELS Nouén: VNDIRECT RESEARCH, MOIT 6: Tang truéng kép tidu thy dign duge dy bio & mirc 8.9% trong Hinh 7: Dy bo tinh trang thidu dign $8 sy ra trong gial dogn 2021- 24 Donvis ty KWh) seam Noun: VNDIRECT RESEARCH, MOIT inh 9: Dy phéng doanh thu POW trong gial doan 2021.25 (Bon vi fy dng) 27.1% vao nam 2030. 702 Bet aver Ta Fave] zo erry “Tong sin wong 20023 ase 2 71900 10% 08 1% itn 120) 0776 13% 1426 0% 1438e 2 Thiyaito 1.061 1504 os 1257 10% ‘202 4% Blinn 6509 6629 | e517 2K esi % isbn inh gun 148 1504 om 1827 ™% s70 % nies 130] 590 2% 1701 om 180 * Tyan 1007] 1 % 0 o% a om bignews 1671 120 on 1562 2 1583 ™% “bog doanh tha 22m] sass os 3562 10% sr786 ox ides 730 13307 rs 24034 3% 26000 o% Thiyaito 111] 1728 ox 128 17% 1373 4% itnewn 107 (0128 2 ions 1 10383 2 gun: VNDIRECT RESEARCH, BAO CAO CONG TY Nhigt dign than sé gite & mic én dinh trong giai dogn 2021-23 CChiing 181 ude tinh san wang ciia Ving Ang 1 s8 | ngang & mize khoding 6.500-6.600kWh trong hai nam t6i, déng gdp khoang 10.100-10.400 ty ddng ccho doanh thu cia POW trong giai dogn 2021-23. Tuy nhién, ty trong nhigt ign than trén téng doanh thu $6 thu hep tir 33,5% trong nam 2021 xuéng con * Doanh thu va san long 7721 cla Vang Ang 1 due duy tri én dinh nhé gid dugc mire céng suat cao va ludn vot ké hoach 9.21%. Nha may 64 dugc uu tién huy déng voi sdn lugng Qc cao nho nguén nin ligu én dinh dén tir hop ding cung cp than dai han véi Vinacomin. Ching t6i tin ring day sé IA igi thé én cho Ving Ang 4 inh mot ngun nhign ligu én dinh trong giai doan 2021-23. Trong 6721, tién dO van chuy6n than nhién liu dat 99.4% ké hoach. ‘© Ching t6i tin rang, nhiét dign than s8 duge wu tién huy dong tir Q3/21 do mién Bac dang bude vao mua kho trong khi Io thé canh tranh nit ign khi van sé edn thép dén hét nam 2021 do gia ban dign cao. Trong giai doan 2022-23, chung tdi tin rang nhiét dign than cla POW sé gilt duoc mize san luong nhé tinh chat én dinh va tinh trang phyc héi nhu chu dién sau dich Covid-19,VNDIRECT RESEARCH VNDIRECT + Hign tai, gia than thé gid d4 tang manh khoang 182% lén 172USDitén 8 tir du nim (s6 ligu ngay 15/8). Tuy vay gid dién than cia POW gitr nguyén quanh mic. 1.528d/kWh trong 6721, tuong dyong mic gia ‘trung binh 1.545d/KWh trong nam ngodi. Trong niza cudi nam 2021, ‘chung t0i tin rng san Iuong va gid dién than cua POW 86 gia & mac 6n inh avck nho vao hop déng than dai han voi Vinacomin 3 trigu tdn/nam. Bn canh 6, trong giai doan 2022-23, ching 16 tin ring ga than sé quay Iai mirc binh thuong nhé xu huong gid hang hoa thé gidi do vay Viing Ang sé c6 thé gitr dug mirc gj ban binh quan hip dn trong giai doen nay dc bidl 12 trong thir gian phy tai thép khi dang gidn cach x8 hd Nhigt dign khi sé giém nhe trong nam 2021 va phyc hai trong 2022-23 Vie gid khi dét tang do gid dau tang manh tir dau nam da anh hydng dén kha ‘nang can tranh cla loal dién nay. Cac nha may dign khi ca POW 6 mic 48 binh quan khong 1.700-1.900d/KWh trong Q2/21, cao hon nhieu so voi ‘mirc 1.400-1.600d/KWh trong Q2/20. Do vay, trong 6121, EVN wu tien huy ng cc ngubn nang lugng Gién khdc d&c bist la nang lugng tai tgo véi mize 18 hép hn hom, khién cho san lurong Qc duoc giao tai cc nha may dién khi cea cOng ty gidm manh. Hon iva, ching toi ky vong gia dau tr gid dn cudi nam $6 gid’ & mize 68USDithing, va didu nay s6 18 can tre cho sw hdi phuc cela dign khi giai doan nia cui nm 2021, trong b6i cnn phy tai dign thap do nh huéng tir dich Covid-19, va EVN s8 chon loc ky luong hon a huy dong «ign tir cde nha may. Ching t0i woe tinh san luong dién cua Ca Mau 182, Nhon Trach 1 va Nhon Trach 2 s6 giém ln lurot 10,3% suck, 16.5% svck, 3,1% suck trong nam 2021. Tuy nhién, véi vige gia binh quan tang cao, chiing {3i tin rng doanh thu tir dién khi ciia POW 8 khong bj anh hurdng va sé tang ihe 7% svck trong nam 2021. Tir ndm 2022 dén 2023, doanh thu dign khi cia cong ty SB tang truéng tr lai Hin luot la 31% suck va 8% suck ty mc nén thp trong nam 2021 nho: + San Iugng tiéu thy dign duge phyc hi khi dich Covid-19 durge iém sodt, gidp tng mize phu t&i dign tai mién Nam, dac bigt la tai cdc khu e6ng nghiép. * Gia ddu duy tri quanh mirc 70-73USD/thiing trong giai doan 2022-23, kién maze gia binh quan dién khi gir 6 mic cao trong béi cdnh thiéu thu dign dy kién sé tang manh trong cdc nm t61 * POW hién dang lam viéc voi EVN/EPTC dé hoan thanh sira d6i PPA cli cdc nha may dién khi Ca Mau 182, va chuan bj cho nha may tham ia th truéng dién can tranh (CGM) Thuy dign: tang trudng va sé glam te & moe nén eao trong nim 2021 CChiing 181 uée tinh rng dén hét nm 2021, cée nha méy Gién Hua Na va DakDrink s8 ghi nhan mic tang truéng san lugng an twang lan kugt 1a 42,9% svck va 22% svck, giup cho téng doanh thu thuy dign ting 56% svck. Tuy nhién, trong giai doan 2022-23, ching t6i dy bao san lvgng thuy dién sé gidm Jan luot 18% va 4% tir mize nén cao cua nam nay, dn dén sy sut gidm doanh thu lin lugt 18 17% va 4% svck do: + Nam 2021 chang kién sy tang trxéng an twong tir thuy dién nhe cae iu kién thuy van thugn li, tao rBo cén cho sy tang trxéng cla nm {gi tir mize nén cao trong nam nay. + Giai doan dinh cua La Nina da troi qua ké tir Q2/21 va diéu kién thoi {it trong nhirng nam t6 $8 c6 thé Khéng con Ij tubing nhu ndm nay 8 phat tidn thuy éién. wira meine com vn 6VNDIRECT " Nieitseam sole Cap nhat lai trién vong kinh doanh giai dogn 2021-23 ‘Bé danh gid lai trén vong kinh doanh POW trong giai doan 2021-23, ching toi tang EPS nam 2021/22/23 lén thém 5,1%/14,7%/22.4% so voi dy bao tude 46. Cac diéu chinh cho hoat dong kinh doanh cua POW dug dua ra nhu sau: + Chung t6i gidm dy béo doanh thu ndm 2021 xuéng 11.7% a8 phan {nh su sut gidm doanh thu dign khi 20.8%. Bén cenh d6, ching 10 git ving gid dinh cho nm 2022-23, va doanh thu dy béo méi sé chi diéu chinh nhe ( lén luot -0,4% va +4,8%). LN g6p iu chinh cho nm 2021 sé gidm 4,6% sv dy béo ci va tang lan lugt 4,8% va 8.9% cho rném 2022 va 2023 do chung t0 ki vong mic gia ban cao hon tai gial oan nay. ‘© Chung 161 gidm thu nhap tai chinh céc nam 2021/22/23 xubng 9,3%/12,5%/3,2% sau khi cap nhat Iai két qua tai chinh nam 2020. Bang thoi, ching ti ha dy bao chi phi tai chinh ciia céc nam 2021/22/23 xuéng 27,8%/32, 1%4/30,8% $0 voi bdo cdo co dé phan ‘nh: (1) sy diéu chinh sau khi cap nhat két qua kinh doanh nam 2020, (2) chi phi lai vay thép hon dang ké sau khi Hoan thanh cdc Khodn vay nigan hang dén han phai tra, (3) ching toi cling tri hoan qua trinh tai tro vén cho Nhon Trach 384 dén cu6i Q4/21 va (4) ching t6ilogi b6 23% khosin ch rd cb tire nm 2024 + Do vay. dy bao LN rong nam 2021 tang nhe 6.1% trong Ki trong oka oan 2022-23, LN rong 88 tang 14.7% va 22.4% so voi dy bao cl cla ching ti dy theo cae diéu chinh néu bén tren Hinh 10: Bid ehinh ay phéng cho gial dopn 2021-23 (Bon vi: ty ang) y prong cy pring mst ignan wis) a1 18307 ‘Tayeien aun} 1380 1728 Bignew toore| 9x8 10125 (i von nrg bn 25.182] Zoa10 26009 ror 4500) 4327 4i36 Bion LN 980%) 160%] 127% 187% Sosa 1.200) 255 4 eat aan] aaa saa Tumapta crm a) os os (oh pith che | 108 4 Lneeng 2aes) 221 zou EPS (NDI ib 1010 48 oer Ngude: VNOIRECT RESEARCH ign khi sé 18 dng lye tang truréng cho POW trong dai hen. QHD 8: Ban dap cho sw phat trién cia dign khi Mat sé diém chinh duge dé xudt trong ban dy théo Quy hoach dién 8 (dy thdo ‘QHD 8) khuyén khich phat trién nang lgng dign khi, va POW sé dugc huéng Igi tir ké hoach nay: + Trong giai doan 2020-30: Dy thio QHD 8 da nhdn manh tam quan tung ca nang luong dign khi va sy phat tién mann mé ela cae rigubn nang lugng tai tao (gid, mat ti) abi voi co edu cong sust rngudn dign cia Vigt Nam trong twong lai. ng cha, téng cong sust ign kni 6 tang tt khodng 7GW nm 2020 én gp 6bi tai 13,5GW vao nam 2025 va dat xap xi 28-33GW trong nm 2030, chiém 21-23% téng cng sudt nguén dién. Trong giai doan nay, sé khdng c6 sy phat trién BS sung cdc dy An dién than mdi (ngoai cdc dy An nhist dién than da durgc xay dung hode dang durgc dau tu trong giai doan 2021- wm ect com wr 7VNDIRECT 5 Nee eam eer 25) va ty trong cong xuat dién than sé gidm tir 34% nam 2020 xuéng cn 27% nam 2030. + Trong giai dogn 2031-45: Ty trong cng sudt lap d8t dign khi sé tang tir 21% trong nam 2030 lén mize 25% vao ndm 2045 vei toc 65 tang trudng kép nhanh nhat cdc loai nguén dién (8.4%). Nang lugng dién 6 va dign mat tr sé chidm tj trong cao nha vai 83% tong cBng suat ngudn dién, véi tang trudng kép dat 7,2%. Mat khac, c6ng sudt dién than va thuj dién s8 gkm di khithuy ign da can kigt du dia phat trién trong khi dign than s@ khong cén la nguén nang lugng phi hop cho xu hurgmg phat tién ben ving cua dat nude © Bén canh dé, dy thao 2030 va sé bat dau chuyén dich sang cdc nha may dign sty dung LNG. Do 46, téng cong sudt lép dat cua cdc nha may dign khi su dung nhién liéu LNG sé tang manh tu khoang 4,4GW rnam 2025 lén 22,8GW nam 2030 va sé tiép tuc tang lén 7EGW vao nam 2045. Dieu nay sé mang lai rat nhieu loi thé cho POW, Khi cong ty nay s@ hau hai dy an dién sir dyng LNG nhap khéu Go la nha may ign Nhon Trach 384 ‘Minh 11: Ty trong edng suit tip at agubn ai inn 12: Cong sudt ip d9t ign kit sty yng LNG sé tang mann vot ng suit trong 2045, vol CAGR 8.4% trong GAGR 16% trong 2021-30 va CAGR 6% trong 2030-45 (Don vi MW) om ‘cagR: eon os eins xan ts no gue: VNDIRECT RESEARCH, dy thio QHDS INgutn: VNOIRECT RESEARCH, dy thdo QHDS Nhon Trach 384 mang Iai tiém nang dai han cho POW tir nam 2024 Han chét g6i thdu EPC aia Nhon Trach 384 vio ngay 6/8 viza ri 85 két thic véi duy nhat lién danh Sémung ~ Ge ~ Lilama nép hd so dy thu, Do 46, POW quyét dinh kéo dai thd’ han np hb so thém 17 ngay é tao tinh khach quan va tang kha nang canh tranh, Theo quan diém cia ching t6i, voi céch tiép can ky thuat va thuong mai phu hgp, lién danh Samsung ~ GE - Lima 6 thé sé [a nha thu EPC cho dy an nay, Tuy rang da cé nhing vudng mac phap Ij lam cham tién 9 thi cng, ban lanh dao dang kin trudng xay dung va hod thién cdch thi tue 48 dy an sém c6 thé duge trién khal. Ching toi hi vong Nhon Trach 3&4 sé dugc trién khai trong Q4/21 va sé Gi vao hoat dong trong 04/23 va Q2/21 wu wnerect com vn 8VNDIRECT Niel tong ts Co] inh 13: Théng tn ky thugt vb nha may Nhon Trach 384 2 zen aon a0 a4 20s nna xt 2 Taw Tha bn chu wr hap 3 dy LNG Mbt gin een eon Tach 9 Nn Tac 80g ot 3 ir) 73% 76% DEOMI ero hl my. 8 a dma dy ib 75%) Capwennon 1e9en3 3220 000 570 sae rg cAPEXr 3 00 chy (0). 959 tenn ny VL bu io ahrta inn * oar 57 @)Dbu devel 19.600 tint Bi oh mbyetBru eam - lon tan Sikora dit: ndeg 43 9k Ble ay org auong 6.0000 raat ong (9H 80 89 75%), ‘ABP petra bes eh = ai ia a ove ASP la POW 3 ing 1645.4 Non ach 384 Nguée: VNOIRECT RESEARCH Chang t6i tin rang sw xudt hign cia Nhom Trach 3 98 déng g6p khodng 21% vao téng doanh thu cia POW tir nam 2024 véi san lugng dy kién dat 4.271 tidy KWh (ty 18 cng sudt 75%) vei gia ban binh quan ude tinh Khodng 2.4404/kWh. Hon thé niva, Nhon Trach 4 di vao hoat déng ki vong sé nang <6ng gép doanh thu ciia cd hai nha may Ién 35% vao nm 2025. Nhiing ly do 48 ching t6i dva ra céc gia dinh céng suat cao la nh: ‘© Tiéu thy dign cia Viet Nam dy kién sé tng vi mirc tang truéng kép dat 8,9% trong giai doan 2021-30, va dién khi sé phat trién manh theo QHD 8, ‘© Gia ban aign binh quan vin s8 6’ mic cao theo gi du cao hon trong nihirng nam tiép theo. Khi ca hai nha may di vao hoat é0ng, ching t6i 6c tinh téng san lugng dign ty hai nha may nay sé tang gap doi In, mic 8.541 KWh, mang lai khoan doanh thu dy kién 20.328 ty ding (chiém 34% tng doanh thu) ‘* Vige kho cing LNG Thi Vai hoan thanh ding tién 49 trong thoi gian qua sé la diém tya virng chdc cho qua trinh xay dyng clla Nhon Trach 384 voi bin hop déng bao tiéu dai han giva PVGAS va PVPOWER 8 cung cép 1 trigu tén LNG nhap Khdu/ndm cho hai nha méy Nhon Trach 3&4. Hién tai, qué trinh xy dyng kho cdng LNG Thi Vai dang haan thanh giai doan 1 va dy Kién di vao hoat dong tir 02/22. Viéc dy an nay hoan thanh ding tién 4 sé dam bao duge rngudn nihién liu én dinh cho Nhon Trach 384 Khi hai nha may di vao hoat d6ng, inh 14: Nhow Trach 384 88 déng gép ~24% cho tbng doanh thu cila POW tir nirm 2025 (Ben vi: ty 6bng) Ngudn: VNDIRECT RESEARCHWit seum Go VNDIRECT Ty 9 don bay 86 tang trong giai doan xay dng Nhon Trach 3&4 V6i t8ng mire dau ty 34.000 ty déng cho Nhon Trach 384, héi dng quan tr 6 ké hoach cap vin vei trgng 30% tir vén chi sé hou va 70% tu vay ng nhung van chu chét cac khoan vay thuong mai. Tuy nhién. Ching ti dua ra cae gia dinh vé téng vén ng 1a cac khoan vay tir ngan hang bang ngo@i t8 voi ll sult 4%, va cc Knodn vay dy én phan BS tong ving 12-14 nam. Do do, trong giai doan 2022-2025, cdc khodn vay dai han sap toi $8 gay ap lve len ty 1g doan bay cua POW, khién téng vay no tang manh Ién hon 31.000 ty déng vao nam 2026 theo dy bao clla ching tdi. Bén canh dé ty Ié ng trén von chu va ng trén tai sin cing dat dinh tai mic 0,31 va 0,64 vao nam 2026. Tuy nhién, ap lyc s8 gi dan tu nam 2027 ki khan vay s8 duge phan bé thanh toan ciing v6i chi phi tai chinh sé gidm di. Vao nam 2030, chung t6i wdc tinh téng vay sé gidm véi ty ¢ doan bay thap hon dang ké sv mirc dinh vai ty 16 ng tren vén chi va no trén téng tai san lan Ivot dat 0,22 va 0,36. Chung toi cling dy kién chi phi tai chinh sé & mize 1.801 ty ding ném 2026 va sé giam xuéng 1.568 ty ding vao nam 2030. inh 18: Ty 19 an bay tal chinh £6 tang man trong qua trinh xy dymg Nhon Trach 384 voi chi phi ti chinh durge ky vong sé tang tent 2025 Ill Ngudn: VNDIRECT RESEARCH ‘wera. ynivec.com.vn 10VNDIRECT VNDIRECT RESEARCH in is Soon tute weave tnrvbctub Que a. conus ane bos US tdn te WOK te faa Sanne: con ce fen 7a — ae oe ee a ee eta eD ,— sh — Tend rg we “2 tinier bas) faa een, Sete z 3 Eaves 3; eo a ee ose i sans 2 See. a ee = Ese a eu aesibao i ae | eee = Seas eeu — woe ‘eae ase ——tetahcottn Tien we trary dveng tn, 17 9578 = = —— Uo gee = Solana ce te See a mnie — ane i as ae z Seger arnane ae ee i Soe os : en he 134442 SSroayri 9 RC “ees rea a ——, cS in ana ue am Rupees — far aS ==. Sa — Nui: VNO RESEARCH "