Modelling Household Fertility Decision With Generalized Poisson Regression

Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Modelling Household Fertility Decision with Generalized

Poisson Regression
Md. Maidul Husain

Roll No.: EK-103
Institute of Statistical Research and Training (I.S.R.T.)

University of Dhaka
August 24, 2015
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 1 / 23
Outline
1 Introduction
2 Data and Variables
3 Methodology
4 Analysis and Results
5 Conclusions
Introduction
Number of living children has the direct connection with fertility

decisions of a household (Wang and Famoye 1997).
For count data the commonly used models are standard poisson
(equi-dispersion) and negative binomial (over-dispersion).
Number of living children in household often exhibits under-dispersion
when mode is two (Winkelmann and Zimmermann 1994).
Generalized poisson regression has the flexibility in modelling count
data with under, equal and over dispersion.
Literature Review
There are four approach for modelling the count data:

a linear relationship between the covariates and count data and to
apply the ordinary least square method (Schultz 1990).
the Tobit model which account the fact that the dependent variable is
a non negative integer (Lehrer and Nerlove 1981).
accounts for the discreteness of the data by employing the probability
model like the logit and probit models and their ordinal extensions
(Danziger and Neuman 1989).
Poisson Regression Model which describes in the context of
Generalized Linear Models.
Data and Variables
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Data and Variables
Data Source
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Exploratory Analysis
Exploratory Analysis
Mean Variance
2.31 1.76
Since Variance < Mean, there exists under-dispersion, so we can fit either
poisson regression or generalized poisson regression.
Methodology
Poisson Regression Model

Generalized Poisson Regression Model
Methodology

If Yi follows a Poisson distributions with the probability mass function:
exp(−λi )λyi i
Pr (Yi = yi ) = yi = 0, 1, 2, . . . (1)
yi !
With mean and the variance are equal
E (Yi ) = Var (Yi ) = λi , (2)

0
where λi = exp(Xi β), Xi is the i th row of covariate matrix, and
β = (β1 , β2 , . . . , βk ) are unknown K-dimensional vector of regression
parameters. The mean of Yi is given by E(Yi |Xi ) and the variances of Yi
is given by var(Yi |Xi ). The parameters β can be estimated by Maximum
likelihood approach.
Suppose Yi is a count response variable that follows a generalized Poisson

distribution, then the probability mass function is given by:
λyi i yi (1 + αyi )
Pr (Yi = yi ) = exp(− ), yi = 0, 1, 2, . . . (3)
yi ! (1 + αλi ) (1 + αλi )
The mean and variance of Yi are given by:
E (Yi |Xi ) = λi (4)
Var (Yi |Xi ) = λi (1 + αλi )2 (5)
Generalized Poisson Regression Model...cont.
where α is called the dispersion parameter,

when α = 0, the probability mass function in Equ.(3) reduces to the
probability mass function in Equ.(1), so that the mean is equal to the
variance and this a case of equi-dispersion.
Estimate of α and β in the GPR model are obtained using the
method of maximum likelihood.
Results of Poisson Regression Analysis
Variables Categories Estimated Std. error Sig Exp(β)

Intercept .487 .0376 .000 1.627
Yes -.045 .0252 .076 .956
Employed
No
Higher -.544 .0361 .000 .581
Secondary -.269 .0215 .000 .764
Education
Primary -.097 .0192 .000 .908
No Education
Rich -.029 .0208 .168 .972
Status Middle -.015 .0206 .47 .985
Poor
Rural .037 .0180 .041 1.037
Residence
Urban
Muslim .122 .0257 .000 1.129
Religion
Non-Muslim
”35+” .913 .0227 .000 2.491
Mother’s Age
”25-34” .557 .0163 .000 1.745
”15-24”
Exposed -.080 .0172 .000 .923
Media
Not Exposed
Age Difference .009 .0013 .000 1.009
Goodness-of-Fit of Poisson Regression
Deviance 3187.489
Pearson Chi-Square 3174.836
DF 8856
Log Likelihood -12728.585
AIC 25483.169
Result of Generalized Poisson Regression
Variables Categories Estimated Std error Sig Exp(β)

Intercept .487 .0481 .000 1.627
Yes -.045 .0322 .166 .956
Employed
No
Higher -.544 .0462 .000 .581
Secondary -.269 .0275 .000 .764
Education
Primary -.097 .0245 .000 .908
No Education
Rich -.029 .0266 .281 .972
Status Middle -.015 .0264 .577 .985
Poor
Rural .037 .0230 .110 1.037
Residence
Urban
Muslim .122 .0329 .000 1.129
Religion
Non-Muslim
“35+” .913 .0290 .000 2.491
Mother’s Age
“25-34” .557 .0209 .000 1.745
“15-24”
Exposed -.080 .0220 .000 .923
Media
Not Exposed
Age Difference .009 .0017 .000 1.009
Goodness-of-Fit for Generalized Poisson Regression
Deviance 1946.718
Pearson Chi-Square 1938.991
DF 8856
Log Likelihood -7773.821
AIC 15573.642
Interpretation
Based on GPR results the mother education levels are statistically

significant and are inversely related to the number of the children in
household. The result supports previous neoclassical analysis of wives
and are opportunity cost of raising children
The fertility rate for higher educated women is 42% decrease than
those women who has no education
Similarly the fertility rates for women who has secondary and primary
education are 23.6% and 9.2% less than women who has no
education respectively.
Religion has significant effect on the fertility decision.The fertility rate
for muslim is expected 1.129 times higher (12.9% increase) than
non-muslim.
Interpretation...cont.
The age group of mother has also significant effect on fertility

decision. The fertility rates for “35+” and “25-34” are 2.491 and
1.745 times higher than those women who has age group “15-24”
The fertility rate for media exposed women is 7.7% less than women
who are not exposed by media.
If age difference increase one unit,then fertility rate would be
expected to change by a factor 1.009 (.9% increase), while holding
other variable constant.
Test for Dispersion Parameter
Hypothesis:
H0 : α = 0 vs H1 : α 6= 0
We can use LRT test
LRT = −2(LL(Poisson) − LL(GPR))

= −2(−12728.585 + 7773.821)
= 4954.746
which follows a χ2 distribution with 1 df. Comparing the calculated and

tabulated values at 5% level of significance, we have to reject H0 that
implies existence of dispersion in the data.
Comparison Between Poisson And Generalized Poisson
Poisson Generalized Poisson

Estimated Standard Error Estimated Standard Error
Intercept .487 .0376 .487 .0481
Employed[Yes] -.045 .0252 -.045 .0322
Education[Higher] -.544 .0361 -.544 .0462
Education[Secondary] -.269 .0215 -.269 .0275
Education[Primary] -.097 .0192 -.097 .0245
Status[Rich] -.029 .0208 -.029 .0266
Status[Middle] -.015 .0206 -.015 .0264
Residence[Rural] .037 .0180 .037 .0230
Religion[Muslim] .122 .0257 .122 .0329
Mother’s age[35+] .913 .0227 .913 .0290
Mother’s age[25-34] .557 .0163 .557 .0209
Media[Exposed] - .080 .0172 -.080 .0220
Age Differ .009 .0013 .009 .0017
Comparison of GOF between Poisson and GPR
Poisson Generalized Poisson

Deviance 3187.489 1946.718
Pearson Chi-Square 3174.836 1938.991
DF 8856 8856
Log Likelihood -12728.585 -7773.821
AIC 25483.169 15573.642
The generalized poisson model is also preferred than the poisson model
based on goodness-of-fit measures Deviance and AIC.
Conclusions
In our analysis standard poisson regression gives more precise

estimates of parameter compare to generalized poisson regression.
From the test of dispersion parameter it is found that the data
exhibits under dispersion.
Standard poisson regression underestimated the parameter, as it
overlook the dispersion in the data.
Under the different goodness of fit measures we may conclude
that generalized poisson is better described the fertility data
than poisson which exhibits the under-dispersion.
References
Becker, Gary S, Demographic and economic change in developed

countries, CUP
Danziger, Leif and Neuman, Shoshana, Intergenerational effects on
fertility Theory and evidence from Israel, JPE
Lehrer, Evelyn and Nerlove, Marc, The Labor Supply and Fertility
Behavior of Married Women: A Three-Period Model, RPE
Wang, Weiren and Famoye, Felix, Modelling household fertility
decisions with generalized Poisson regression, JPE
Willis, Edwin O, Populations and local extinctions of birds on Barro
Colorado Island, Panama, EM
Winkelmann, Rainer and Zimmermann, Klaus F, Count data models
for demographic data T& F

Modelling Household Fertility Decision With Generalized Poisson Regression

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Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions

Modelling Household Fertility Decision with Generalized

Md. Maidul Husain

Institute of Statistical Research and Training (I.S.R.T.)

August 24, 2015

2 Data and Variables

4 Analysis and Results

Number of living children has the direct connection with fertility

There are four approach for modelling the count data:

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Data and Variables

Poisson Regression Model

Poisson Regression Model

Poisson Regression Model

If Yi follows a Poisson distributions with the probability mass function:

E (Yi ) = Var (Yi ) = λi , (2)

Generalized Poisson Regression Model

Suppose Yi is a count response variable that follows a generalized Poisson

The mean and variance of Yi are given by:

E (Yi |Xi ) = λi (4)

Var (Yi |Xi ) = λi (1 + αλi )2 (5)

Generalized Poisson Regression Model...cont.

where α is called the dispersion parameter,

Results of Poisson Regression Analysis

Variables Categories Estimated Std. error Sig Exp(β)

Goodness-of-Fit of Poisson Regression

Result of Generalized Poisson Regression

Variables Categories Estimated Std error Sig Exp(β)

Goodness-of-Fit for Generalized Poisson Regression

Based on GPR results the mother education levels are statistically

The age group of mother has also significant effect on fertility

Test for Dispersion Parameter

We can use LRT test

LRT = −2(LL(Poisson) − LL(GPR))

which follows a χ2 distribution with 1 df. Comparing the calculated and

Comparison Between Poisson And Generalized Poisson

Poisson Generalized Poisson

Comparison of GOF between Poisson and GPR

Poisson Generalized Poisson

In our analysis standard poisson regression gives more precise

Becker, Gary S, Demographic and economic change in developed

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