Assignment 1 (Due on or before 15/10/2021)

Given the data:

Month Sales (000 units)
Feb. 19
Mar. 18
Apr. 15
May 20
Jun. 18
Jul. 22
Aug. 20

1. Plot the time-series data to identify any possible pattern.

2. Using a 5-month moving average, forecast sales for September.
3. Assuming an initial forecast of 19(000) units for March, forecast sales for September
with a smoothing constant () of 0.20 and compute the MAD and MSE for the smoothed
values used as forecasts.
4. Fit a trend line to the time-series and determine the values a and b for the trend equation.
What will be a forecast for September with this trend equation?
5. Judging from the results above, is there a clear trend in the sales?