IV: Forecast Model for Dark Chocolate using BASES II

Testing in August 2012

Projections and calculations:

Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1

Trial Purchase Intent

Definitely would buy 23%
% of "Definites" who actually buy 80%
"Definite" Purchase 18.4%
Probably would buy 40%
% of "Probables" who actually buy 30%
"Probable" Purchase 12%
Trial Rate (Definite + Probable) 30.4%
Hence 30.4% (10.2027264 MM / 36.48 MM) of target market who would buy the
product atleast once.

Marketing Adjusted Trial Rate (Trial Rate * Awareness * ACV)

Low Support C.A * Low ACV 2.5536%

Low Support C.A. * Medium ACV 2.7664%
Low Support C.A * High ACV 3.36224%
Medium Support * Low ACV 3.1008%
Medium Support C.A * Medium ACV 3.3592%
Medium Support C.A * High ACV 4.08272%
High Support C.A * Low ACV 3.648%
High Support C.A * Medium ACV 3.952%
High Support C.A * High ACV 4.8032%

Average 3.51424%
Standard Deviation 0.6977%
Range with S.D. 2.81654% - 4.21194%
Range 2.5536% - 4.8032%

Trail Households (Households * Marketing- Adjusted Trial Rate)

Households 120 MM
Range of Trial Households with MATR 2.5536% - 4.8032% 3.06432
MM
– 5.76384 MM

Repeat Volume (Trial Households * % Households Repurchasing * Repeat

Purchase Occasions)
Repeat Purchase Occasions 4
% Households Repurchasing Mediocre Product with 28% 3.432
MM –
6.455 MM
% Households Repurchasing Average Product with 33% 4.0449 MM
–7.6082 MM
% Households Repurchasing Excellent Product with 38% 4.6577 MM
–8.76103 MM

Total Volume (Trial + Repeat Volume)

7.72202 MM – 14.52487 MM

Retail Sales Volume ( Retail Selling Price * Total Volume)

$34671869.8 -
$65216666.3
Montreaux Sales Volume (Retail Sales Volume * 0.65) $22536715.37 -
$42390833.095.