Introduction Knowledge of fundamental traffic flow characteristics and associated analytical tech- niques is an essential requirement in the planning, design, and operation of transporta- tion systems. Traffic flow characteristics include time headway, flow, time-space pro- jectory, speed, distance headway, and density. Traffic flow analytical techniques include supply—demand modeling, capacity and level-of-service analysis, traffic stream modeling, shock wave analysis, queueing analysis, and simulation modeling. The pur- pose of this book is to provide an in-depth treatment of these fundamentals of traffic flow, and one chapter is devoted to each of these traffic flow characteristics and associ- ated analytical techniques. Transportation system planners, designers, and operators should have a basic knowledge of traffic flow fundamentals. Planners assess traffic and environmental impacts of proposed system modifications, and this can be accomplished only through a supply-demand framework that requires understanding of flow characteristics and their interrelations. Designers determine link sizes and configure systems, and must carefully evaluate the trade-off between traffic flow levels and levels of service. Operators iden- tify locations and causes of existing system defects and generate operational improve- ment plans and predict their effects. For these reasons and others, knowledge of traffic flow fundamentals is required for all graduate transportation students at the University of California, Although this book focuses primarily on the highway transportation system, traffic flow characteristics and associated analytical techniques are fundamental to all transpor- tation systems. All transportation. systems have particles moving along links that interact with each other, interact with the physical facility, and require analysis. and con- trol. In air transportation, for example, flow characteristics are- studied and analysis made of air-side and land-side subsystems. On the air side, flow control schemes have 12 Introduction Chap. 1 been developed for the airways, simulation models developed for use in design of air- ports, and queueing models employed for allocating aircraft to gate positions. On the land side, analysis has been made of baggage handling, person flow at check-in counters and gate positions, and mode transfer at the terminal interface. In water transportation, simulation models have been developed to study line-haul ocean operations and ferry systems, and queueing analysis has been applied to lock operations and port facilities. In fixed-guideway systems, time~space diagrams are in continuous use for railroad line operations, simulation models for urban rail systems and freight yards, and queueing analysis for transit stations. One should not overlook special transportation systems which also require traffic flow fundamentals, such as for pedestrian-ways, escalators, elevators, and conveyor belts. For these reasons, the coverage in this book has mul- timodal implications, and specialists in other transportation systems should readily be able to adopt and transfer material to their area of interest. Some examples of modal traffic operations are shown in Table 1.1. TABLE 1.1_Examples of Modal Tratfic Operations Transport Mode Microscopic Macroscopic Air Airways, airfields, Terminals, gate positions check-in, (eireraft) gate positions, (persons) Water — || Por facilities, Terminals line-haul operations, | (freight) locks (ships) Rail ‘Urban systems, Terminals railroads (persons) (trains) Highway |} intersections, Route operations, trucks on grades parking (vehicles) (vehicles) Other |] Pedestrians, elevators | Pedestrians, escalators, (persons) conveyor belts (persons or freight) 1.1 AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH The analytical process consists of predicting an output as a function of specified inputs. This analytical process can vary from a simple equation to a complex simulation model. The important issues for analysts are their knowledge of the system being considered,Sec. 1.1 An Analytical Approach 3 including its flow characteristics, and of analytical techniques and their appropriate selection for the problem at hand. A flowchart is shown in Figure 1.1 to illustrate this analytical process and to emphasize the importance of knowing fundamental flow characteristics and basic analyt- ical techniques. Although the process can be shown in many different ways, the most common approach is to predict performance as a function of a set of prespecified inputs. These inputs consist of traffic demand, transport supply, and traffic control. The predicted performance may include performance measures from a system and/or user perspective and may include environmental as well as traffic consequences. Traffic demand ‘Transport Characteristics Traffic supply ‘and analysis [™} performance Traffic control i Figure 1.1 The Analytical Process ‘An understanding of flow characteristics is essential to convert prespecified demand, supply, and control information into mutually compatible quantitative expres- sions that can serve as direct input to the selected analytical technique. The demand must be quantified in terms of demand fiow rates or time headway distributions for the location and time period selected for analysis. The demand may include mixed-vehicle flow conditions in which the effect of vehicle characteristics must also be evaluated. The transport supply features must be converted to capacity flow rates or minimum time headway distributions, and relationships between traffic loads and resulting operations established. The resulting operations include predictions of speed projectories, operating speeds, distance headway distributions, and/or density levels. The control elements must be inserted into the supply-demand process and used to modify predicted perfor- mance. Without an understanding of flow characteristics, these tasks cannot be per- formed. ‘A knowledge of traffic analytical techniques and the ability to select the appropri- ate technique are required to predict the performance from developed input expressions. ‘As mentioned earlier, the analytical process can vary from a simple equation to a com- plex simulation model. Traffic stream models can often be used for uninterrupted flow situations where demands do not exceed capacities. For interrupted oversaturated flow situations, more complex techniques, such as shock wave analysis, queueing analysis, and simulation modeling, are employed. Microscopic analysis may be selected for moderate-sized systems where the number of transport units passing through the system is relatively small and there is the need to study the behavior of individual units in the4 Introduction — Chap. 1 system. Macroscopic analysis may be selected for higher-density, larger-scale systems in which a study of the behavior of groups of units is sufficient. Without a knowledge of traffic analytical techniques and the ability to select the most appropriate microscopic or macroscopic technique for the problem at hand, these tasks cannot be performed. 1.2 TEXTBOOK ORGANIZATION The format of the various chapters of the textbook is quite similar and the main body consists of introduction, empirical evidence, principles and existing theories, evaluation process, and applications. Each chapter is accompanied by selected problems and selected references. Appendices, including a table of metric conversion factors and a list of symbols and definitions, and an index are located at the end of the book. The first part of the book, Chapters 2 through 7, deals with traffic characteristics. The second part of the book, Chapters 8 through 13, is concerned with analytical tech- niques. Chapter highlights are presented briefly in the next two sections of this chapter. 1.3 PART ONE: TRAFFIC CHARACTERISTICS The fundamental characteristics of traffic flow are flow, speed, and density. These characteristics can be observed and studied at the microscopic and macroscopic levels. Table 1.2 provides a framework for these characteristics as presented in Chapters 2 through 7. TABLE 1.2 Framework for Fundamental Characteristics of Traffic Flow ‘Trafic Microscopie Macroseo Characteristic || (Individual Units) | (Groups of Units) Flow Time headways | Flow rates (Chapter 2) (Chapter 3) Speed Individual speeds | Average speeds (Chapter 4) (Chapter 5) Density Distance headways | Density rates (Chapter 6) (Chapter 7) Chapter 2, devoted to microscopic flow characteristics, is concemed with indivi- dual time headways between vehicles, with particular emphasis on mean values and dis- tribution forms. The chapter presents empirical measurements, describes pertinent mathematical distributions, suggests evaluation procedures, and provides selected appli- cations. ~Sec. 1.4 Part Two: Analytical Techniques 5 Chapter 3 is concemed with macroscopic flow characteristics, which are expressed as flow rates, and attention is given to temporal, spatial, and modal pattems. Empirical evidence is provided, analytical techniques are described, and applications are presented. Chapter 4 describes microscopic speed characteristics of individual vehicles pass- ing a point or short segment during a specified time period. Particular attention is given to vehicular speed trajectories over time and space as well as to statistical analysis of individual speed measurements. Chapter 5 is directed to macroscopic speed characteristics, which are concerned with the speed of groups of vehicles passing a point or short segment during a specified period. Particular attention is given to temporal, spatial, and modal variations as well as to statistical analysis of group speed measurements. Travel time and delay techniques are also included. Chapter 6 is devoted to microscopic density characteristics, which are concerned with individual distance headways between vehicles, with particular empha minimum and average values. The chapter includes an extensive coverage of car- following theories and automatic data collection systems. Chapter 7 is concerned with macroscopic density characteristics, which are expressed as the number of vehicles occupying a section of roadway. Density measure- ‘ment techniques are described and particular attention is given to density contour maps. Analytical techniques using density contour maps are described. 1.4 PART TWO: ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES Analytical techniques associated with individual traffic characteristics are discussed in earlier traffic characteristics chapters. ‘The remaining portion of the book is devoted to analytical techniques involving the total traffic flow situation, Table 1.3 provides a framework of these analytical techniques as presented in Chapters 8 through 13. Chapter 8 provides a transition from the treatment of individual traffic characteris- tics to a demand-supply framework, which permits the integration of analytical tech- niques presented later. The demand-supply framework is introduced followed by a rather comprehensive example of traffic control and traveler response interactions. Chapter 9 is devoted to capacity and level-of-service analysis. The supply, demand, and control features are analyzed to determine the capacity and the trade-off between the quantity of traffic and the resulting level of service to the users. Attention is given to multilane facilities, including ramps and weaving sections as well as to sig- nalized intersections. Chapter 10 is concerned with traffic stream models which provide for the funda- mental relationships of macroscopic traffic stream characteristics for uninterrupted flow situations. The relationships are for free-flow and congested-flow conditions. Extensive sets of field measurements are described and single- and multiregime models presented and evaluated. Chapter 11 presents shock wave analysis, which is one of the techniques available for the analysis of oversaturated traffic systems. ‘Traffic stream models serve as a6 Introduction Chap. 1 TABLE 1.3 Framework for Traffic Analysis Techniques* Analytical Microscopic Macroscopic ‘Technique ndividual Units) | (Groups of Units) Supply analysis Minimum time | Capacity analysis 5 headways (Chapter 9) (Chapter 2) Flow Time-space Flow-speed— relationships diagrams density (Chapter 10) relationships (Chapter 10) Shock wave ‘Time—space Shock waves analysis diagrams (Chapter 11) (Chapter 11) Queueing analysis || Discrete Continuous analysis analysis (Chapter 12) (Chapter 12) ‘Simulation modeling |] Discrete Continuous models models (Chapter 13) (Chapter 13) See also Chapter 8. beginning point for shock wave analysis. The fundamentals of shock wave theory are presented. Examples of the application of shock wave theory to signalized intersec- tions, uninterrupted highways, and pedestrian-ways are illustrated. Chapter 12 is devoted to queueing analysis, one of the techniques available for the analysis of oversaturated traffic systems. A classification of queueing analysis tech- niques is formulated which covers the gamut from deterministic situations to completely stochastic situations. Queueing theory is presented followed by a variety of applica- tions. Chapter 13 describes computer simulation modeling techniques and their applica- tion to traffic, systems. Both microscopic and macroscopic simulation models are covered, The chapter includes a step-by-step procedure for developing a simulation model, an example of actually developing a simulation model, and a description of some models currently available. 1.5 FUTURE CHALLENGES Like many other transportation and infrastructure systems, highway transportation passes through periods of expansion and consolidation. In this century the 1920s and 1930s marked the rapid expansion of the highway system in both road mileage and Toute quality. The construction of the interstate highway system, including the urban freeway system, were major accomplishments of the 1950s and 1960s which providedSec! 1.5 Future Challenges 7 for high-quality intercity and intracity travel never before obtained. These accomplish- ments improved the quality of travel so much that phenomenon growth in traffic demand occurred, and soon demands approached or exceeded capacities at many loca- tions, particularly in the urban and suburban areas. The 1970s ushered in a new era of consolidation and with it transportation system management. As demand continued to approach or exceed capacities, attention turned to controlling the demand while making only spot improvements on the capacity side. During the 1980s, transportation system management has continued but has been enhanced and broadened by the anticipation of innovative vehicle, computer, and elec- tronic technology. Two closely related challenges are envisioned for the remainder of this century and the beginning of the twenty-first century: a more systematic and comprehensive transportation system management, activity and a gradual implementa- tion of the most promising new technologies. Both will be directed toward making maximum use of the existing transportation system. Traffic flow fundamentals will play an important role in meeting these two challenges. Planners, designers, and operators of the transportation systém all have a role to play in developing a more systematic and comprehensive transportation system manage- ment activity. The skills of planners will be needed to develop and apply improved techniques for evaluating the impacts of land use changes and in developing more pre- cise behavior models of the effects of system changes on spatial, temporal, modal, and total traveler responses, The ingenuity of the designer will be required to identify criti- cal links in the system where capacity increases are urgently needed and to develop design plans that meet the needs but with serious constraints on available right-of-way and environmental impacts. The tenacity of the operator will be essential to identify operational defects and to develop plans to balance system operation on a real-time basis. Innovated vehicle, computer, and electronic technology are on the threshold of developments that have the potential of making maximum use of the existing transpor- tation system. Technologies with the greatest potential must be identified and a gradual implementation plan developed. New vehicle technologies include in-vehicle longitudi- nal and lateral information warning systems, radar brakes, and perhaps ultimately, fully automatic controlled guidance systems. Computers can play an even greater role in the future in both off-line and on-line operations. Off-line computer packages are becoming faster, more flexible, and user friendly. The use of on-line computer systems provides the opportunity of engaging improved control theory algorithms, such as artificial intel- ligence, expert systems, fuzzy sets, and the like, to make maximum use of the highway system under normal and unusual traffic conditions. New electronic technologies interact strongly with vehicle and computer technologies. New detectors, communica- tion links, and control processors are being researched intensively. New roadside and in-vehicle information systems are being developed that may lead toward navigation systems and route selection under dynamic traffic conditions. The highway system of today carries a more significant number of vehicle-miles of travel than ever before—greater than that for which it was designed. Demands con- tinue to grow at faster rates than improvements are being made. The movement of per- sons and goods has gradually deteriorated. Transportation systems management and8 Introduction Chap. 1 new technologies offer the greatest challenge and hope for improving the quality of movement. The ability to understand and apply traffic flow fundamentals is an essential ingredient in working toward improving the transportation system. It is hoped that this book will stimulate and involve the reader in the challenges that lie ahead. 1.6 SELECTED PROBLEMS 1, Define the six traffic flow characteristics identified in this chapter. 2, Describe the six traffic low analytical techniques identified in this chapter. 3. Expand the examples in the text on how planners, designers, and operators use traffic flow fundamentals, 4. Develop an expanded Table 1.1. 5. Describe the elements contained in Figure 1.1. Consider extensions such as environmental conditions, feedback loops, and other elements that you feel should be included. 6. Why do interrupted oversaturated flow situations require more complex analytical tech- iques? What are some of the factors to be considered in selecting between microscopic and macroscopic analyses? 8. Study the organization of the book. Are there other organizational schemes that you would consider? 9. Select one chapter of the book that interests you especially and write a half-page summary describing its contents. 10. During the original work on the book a separate chapter on time—space diagrams was con- sidered, to illustrate another analytical technique. It was finally decided to include this ‘material in other chapters. What other chapters contain materials on time-space diagrams, and do you feel that the coverage is adequate? LL. Define transportation system management and provide a historical perspective. 12. Write a new Section 1.5 and discuss what you think the future challenges will be. 13. The year is 2000. What new technologies would you expect to see on your new automo- bile? 14. What impact do you feel the following new vehicle technologies will have on capacity? (a) Longitudinal and lateral information warning systems (b) Radar brakes (©) Fully automatic controlled guidance systems 15. Conduct a brief literature search of one of the following ¢ontrol theory algorithms. (a) Artificial intelligence (b) Expert systems (©) Fuzzy sets 16. Conduct a brief literature search of in-vehicle information systems. 17. Do you feel that in-vehicle information systems will prove to be cost-effective? Why ? 18. In relation to the materials covered in this chapter, what professional activities do you see for yourself in the first quarter of the twenty-first century?Chap.1 Selected References 9 1.7 SELECTED REFERENCES io 2 10. ML. 12, B 14, 15. 16. 17, 18, 19. 20. 2. ‘W. D. Ashton, The Theory of Road Traffic Flow, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York, 1966, 178 pages. Paul C. Box and J. C. 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