CENTRAL POLITICAL

OPINION POLL OCTOBER 2021

METHODOLOGY
Dates of Field Work
Sample Size
Sampling Methodology
Population Universe
Data Collection Methodology
Sampling Error
Interview Languages
Finance
8TH -10TH OF OCTOBER 2021
1000
Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size) Spread across
8 Central Kenya counties. The counties include Embu, Kirinyaga, Laikipia, Nyeri, Murang’a,
Kiambu, Nyandarua, Nakuru. Sample split was guided by all adults age 18+
proportionate to size as per the IEBC register Sept 2018.
Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living in all the 8 Central Region counties
Computer Aided Telephone Interview (CATI)
+/- 3.1 % with a 95% confidence level (Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)
English/Swahili
The Survey was funded by the Radio Africa Limited.
 POLL SAMPLE
RESPONDENTS’ EDUCATION LEVEL
GENDER Sample %
Female 477 48% 30.5%

Male 523 52% 21.3%

19.0%
TOTAL 100 100% 11.9%
7.2% 7.6%
0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 0.1%
None Pre-Primary Primary Secondary College Diploma Degree Masters PhD Refused to
Certificate Answer

Age Group Sample % Education Level Freq %

18-24 168 None 5 0.5%
17%
Pre-Primary 10 1.0%
25-35 307
31% Primary 72 7.2%
36-45 207 Secondary 305 30.5%
21% College Certificate 213 21.3%
46-55 165 Diploma 190 19.0%
17%
56+ 153 Degree 119 11.9%
15% Masters 9 0.9%
PhD 1 0.1%
Refused to Answer 76 7.6%
 POLL SAMPLE BY COUNTY & DEMOGRAPHICS
SAMPLE SIZE:
1000 Margin of Error = +/-3.1

18 to 24 YRS 25 TO 35 YRS 36 TO 45 YRS 46 TO 55 YRS OVER 55 YRS

TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL
COUNTY FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE FEMALE MALE VOTERS

NYANDARUA 6 7 11 10 8 8 6 8 6 7 37 40 77

NYERI 7 8 14 14 10 10 9 13 8 11 48 56 104

KIRINYAGA 5 6 11 11 9 9 7 8 6 7 38 41 79

MURANG'A 9 11 17 17 13 13 10 18 10 15 59 74 133

KIAMBU 25 25 46 44 29 29 17 19 17 17 134 134 268

LAIKIPIA 4 5 9 9 5 6 4 5 4 5 26 30 56

NAKURU 18 21 37 37 21 23 13 15 14 15 103 111 214

EMBU 5 6 10 10 7 7 5 8 5 6 32 37 69
Table of Contents

Problems Facing Kenya

We take a look at the most pressing issues facing the residents of Politics
the 8 central region counties We measure the likelihood to vote of the central region residents,.
We also evaluate the Presidential candidates popularity and
potential deputy president choices.
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING THE COUNTRY
80% High cost of living

62% Unemployment

38% Corruption

27% Increased crime

26% Poor healthcare

 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY DEMOGRAPHICS
Most Pressing Issues Total Male Female 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 Over 55
High cost of living 80% 81% 79% 76% 78% 85% 82% 80%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 62% 66% 58% 74% 63% 61% 60% 51%
Corruption 38% 37% 40% 32% 43% 35% 39% 37%
Security: Increased crime 27% 26% 27% 23% 24% 25% 30% 34%
Poor health care 26% 23% 29% 29% 23% 25% 28% 29%
Poor quality education 17% 16% 18% 19% 17% 14% 15% 20%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 11% 11% 10% 10% 12% 10% 9% 10%
Food insecurity 10% 10% 10% 5% 10% 10% 10% 13%
Poor roads 7% 8% 6% 10% 8% 10% 4% 4%
Land issues (title deeds) 4% 4% 4% 2% 5% 2% 5% 4%
Ethnic tension 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% 3% 3% 3%
Devolution 4% 3% 4% 5% 2% 6% 4% 1%
Water shortage 4% 4% 3% 2% 4% 4% 4% 4%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 3% 1% 4% 2% 2% 3% 1% 5%
Drought 2% 2% 1% 5% 1% 1% 4% 0%
Security: Terrorism 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0% 1%
CURFEW 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0%
 TOP PROBLEMS FACING THE COUNTRY BY COUNTY
Most Pressing Issues Total NAKURU KIAMBU MURANG'A NYERI EMBU KIRINYAGA LAIKIPIA NYANDARUA
High cost of living 80% 86% 77% 69% 79% 94% 79% 71% 87%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 62% 61% 57% 74% 70% 84% 51% 39% 60%
Corruption 38% 34% 41% 41% 46% 42% 33% 41% 23%
Security: Increased crime 27% 23% 28% 23% 21% 19% 36% 46% 27%
Poor health care 26% 27% 26% 23% 16% 23% 37% 2% 50%
Poor quality education 17% 24% 16% 18% 14% 10% 5% 41% 3%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 11% 8% 10% 20% 15% 6% 1% 21% 3%
Food insecurity 10% 11% 11% 5% 11% 3% 29% 0% 1%
Poor roads 7% 5% 9% 8% 8% 4% 5% 2% 15%
Land issues (title deeds) 4% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 0% 18% 1%
Devolution 4% 2% 7% 2% 2% 0% 3% 0% 9%
Ethnic tension 4% 5% 2% 2% 9% 3% 4% 4% 1%
Water shortage 4% 2% 6% 3% 3% 1% 9% 0% 3%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 2% 4%
Drought 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 3% 4% 13%
Security: Terrorism 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 9% 0%
CURFEW 1% 0% 1% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
TOP PROBLEMS CURRENTLY FACING YOUR COUNTY
73% High cost of living

48% Unemployment

36% Corruption

34% Poor healthcare

27% Increased Crime

 TOP PROBLEMS FACING YOUR COUNTY
Most Pressing Issues affecting your county TOTAL NAKURU KIAMBU MURANG’A NYERI EMBU KIRINYAGA LAIKIPIA NYANDARUA
High cost of living 73% 73% 75% 62% 73% 83% 74% 75% 71%
Unemployment/Lack of job opportunities 48% 43% 52% 50% 43% 35% 62% 32% 60%
Corruption 36% 38% 35% 44% 45% 48% 17% 46% 13%
Poor health care 34% 34% 31% 28% 32% 35% 58% 2% 55%
Security: Increased crime 27% 23% 31% 23% 19% 23% 26% 54% 31%
Poor quality education 16% 21% 13% 23% 13% 10% 4% 32% 3%
Poor roads 15% 15% 12% 8% 18% 25% 9% 0% 42%
Poverty/Rich-Poor gap 15% 11% 12% 30% 26% 10% 4% 23% 1%
Food insecurity 8% 12% 9% 5% 6% 4% 24% 0% 0%
Water shortage 8% 8% 9% 8% 9% 16% 9% 0% 1%
Land issues (title deeds) 6% 4% 6% 9% 9% 4% 1% 18% 3%
Devolution 3% 1% 7% 2% 3% 0% 3% 0% 4%
Poor maternal and reproductive health care 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 5% 2% 1%
Ethnic tension 2% 6% 1% 0% 2% 3% 1% 4% 0%
Drought 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% 15%
Security: Terrorism 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0%
Gender inequality 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Inequality in youth rights 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
POLITICS &
ELECTIONS
 PAST VOTING BEHAVIOR
Have you ever voted before? How often would you say you vote?
No 38%
7%
29%
22%

7%
4%
Yes
93%
Always Nearly always Part of the time Seldom Never

Have you
ever voted
before? Total 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 Over 55

Yes 93% 81% 91% 99% 98% 99%

No 7% 19% 9% 1% 2% 1%
ARE YOU A REGISTERED VOTER?
Are you a registered voter? VOTERS REGISTRATION BY COUNTY
No
15%
REGISTERED VOTERS Yes No
TOTAL 85% 15%
LAIKIPIA 100% 0%
NYANDARUA 99% 1%
KIRINYAGA 90% 10%
KIAMBU 89% 11%
EMBU 81% 19%
Yes
85% NAKURU 80% 20%
MURANG'A 78% 22%
NYERI 72% 28%
 LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING ON BY-ELECTION
How likely are you to vote in the
2022 General elections?
Definitely Probably will Probably will Definitely will not
Counties will vote vote not vote vote
Definitely will vote 38% Total 38% 49% 8% 5%

LAIKIPIA 73% 27% 0% 0%

NYANDARUA 65% 26% 6% 3%

Probably will vote 49%
KIAMBU 45% 40% 9% 6%

NAKURU 41% 48% 7% 5%

NYERI 33% 51% 12% 5%

Probably will not vote 8%
MURANG’A 20% 62% 11% 8%

KIRINYAGA 15% 77% 4% 4%

Definitely will not vote 5% EMBU 12% 74% 12% 3%

v Voter apathy is highest in Murang’a & Nyeri counties with 18% and
17% of the respondents respectively indicate that they will probably
not vote
 IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU
VOTE FOR AS PRESIDENT?
Refused to answer, 0.6%
Won't Vote, 4.3%

Undecided, 16.9%

Others, 1.0%

Kivutha Kibwana, 0.5%

Fred Matiangi, 0.9% William Ruto, 57.2%

Gideon Moi, 1.2%

Musalia Mudavadi,
2.6%

Alfred Mutua, 3.8%

Raila Odinga, 11.0%

If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By Demographics)
Candidates Total Male Female 18-24 25-35 36-45 46-55 Over 55
William Ruto 57.2% 57.5% 56.9% 61.9% 56.5% 57.5% 60.6% 49.4%
Raila Odinga 11.0% 12.9% 9.0% 6.5% 11.4% 10.6% 13.3% 13.0%
Alfred Mutua 3.8% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6% 2.9% 4.3% 4.8% 3.9%
Musalia Mudavadi 2.6% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 2.6% 3.4% 2.4% 2.6%
Gideon Moi 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.6% 0.5% 1.8% 0.6%
Fred Matiangi 0.9% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 1.2% 1.3%
Kivutha Kibwana 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Mwangi wa Iria 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Kenneth 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mutahi Kagwe 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Hassan Joho 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Undecided 16.9% 15.0% 19.0% 15.5% 17.3% 18.4% 12.7% 20.1%
Won't Vote 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 7.7% 2.9% 3.9% 2.4% 5.8%
Refused to answer 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 1.9%
If elections were held today, who would you vote for as
President? (By County)
Candidates Total EMBU KIAMBU KIRINYAGA LAIKIPIA MURANG'A NAKURU NYANDARUA NYERI
William Ruto 57.2% 69.6% 52.6% 46.2% 57.1% 60.2% 59.8% 59.0% 58.7%
Raila Odinga 11.0% 7.2% 10.8% 19.2% 8.9% 5.3% 11.2% 14.1% 13.5%
Alfred Mutua 3.8% 8.7% 3.4% 3.8% 1.8% 3.0% 4.2% 2.6% 3.8%
Musalia Mudavadi 2.6% 0.0% 3.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 2.6% 1.0%
Gideon Moi 1.2% 0.0% 1.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.8% 2.3% 1.3% 1.0%
Fred Matiangi 0.9% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0%
Kivutha Kibwana 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Kalonzo Musyoka 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1.0%
Mwangi wa Iria 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Peter Kenneth 0.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mutahi Kagwe 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hassan Joho 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Undecided 16.9% 8.7% 20.1% 14.1% 32.1% 17.3% 13.6% 16.7% 14.4%
Won't Vote 4.3% 5.8% 3.7% 3.8% 0.0% 7.5% 3.7% 1.3% 6.7%
Refused to answer 0.6% 0.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Regardless of whom you will vote for as President,
who do you think will win?
Won't Vote, 2.4% Refused to answer,
0.4%
Mutahi Kagwe, 0.1% Don't Know,…

Kivutha Kibwana, 0.3%

Kalonzo Musyoka, 0.3%

Fred Matiangi, 0.4%

Gideon Moi, 1.0% William Ruto, 57.7%

Musalia Mudavadi, 2.2%

Alfred Mutua, 2.8%

Raila Odinga, 17.8%

WHO WOULD YOU WANT YOUR PRESIDENTIAL CHOICE
TO PICK AS HIS RUNNING MATE?
Martha Karua 10.6%
Mwangi Kiunjuri 7.9%
Mwangi Wa Iria 7.6%
Anne Waiguru 7.5%
Rigathi Gachagua 7.2%
Peter Kenneth 6.4%
Justin Muturi 6.0%
Moses Kuria 5.2%
Mutahi Kagwe 4.1%
Lee Kinyanjui 3.8%
William Kabogo 2.0%
Peter Munya 1.7%
Irungu Kangata 0.3%
Gideon Moi 0.2%
Jimmy wanjigi 0.2%
Others 1.3%
Refused to answer 1.8%
Undecided 26.2%
WHO WOULD YOU STILL VOTE FOR YOUR PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE IF HIS DEPUTY IS NOT FROM MOUNT KENYA
REGION? No
6%

Yes
94%
DYNASTY POLITICS
v OLD DYNASTIES
A minority (8%) supports the old dynasties in lead up to 2022.
v NEW POLTICIANS
A majority, 80%, feels the country needs a new generation of leaders leading to 2022 general
elections

Do you support the old dynasties or want to see

new generation of leaders leading to 2022?

80.4%

11.3%
8.3%

Support the old dynasties Want to see new generation Not Sure
leaders
Oct-2021
 DYNASTY SUPPORT BY COUNTY
Support the old Want to see new
COUNTY Not Sure
dynasty leaders generation leaders

TOTAL 8.3% 80.4% 11.3%

KIRINYAGA 17.9% 73.1% 9.0%
NYANDARUA 12.8% 66.7% 20.5%
KIAMBU 9.3% 80.6% 10.1%
NAKURU 8.9% 82.2% 8.9%
MURANG'A 5.3% 78.9% 15.8%
NYERI 4.8% 79.8% 15.4%
LAIKIPIA 3.6% 96.4% 0.0%
EMBU 1.4% 88.4% 10.1%
vSupport for new generation is strong among all the counties with Laikipia, Embu& Nakuru
counties having the strongest support for new generation leaders.
v Support for the old dynasty leaders is strongest in Kirinyaga.
v No county in the mount Kenya region has a majority supporting old dynasty leaders
 WHICH POLITICAL PARTY ARE YOU CLOSEST TO TO?

None
32% United Democratic
Alliance (UDA)
37%

Others
3%

Maendeleo Chap
Chap
2% ODM Jubilee Party
4% 22%