GUESSTIMATE

CHALLENGE
GROUP-7
WISHWAYS SRINIVAS
PRAGATI SRIVASTAVA
SYED SUBAHAN
VAMSI MAILAVARAM
SHAIFALI
UNDERSTANDING THE PROBLEM
Estimate the number of N95 masks that will be required until 31st
December 2021 due to coronavirus pandemic. (Consider India Only)

01 02 03
N95 Mask Facts Indian Population Facts Mortality Rate Facts
REFFERENCES: REFFERENCES: REFFERENCES:
https://www.sages.org/n- https://www.statista.com/statistics/30
https://www.worldomete
95-re-use-instructions/ 9866/india-digital-population/
rs.info/coronavirus/countr
y/india/
https://censusindia.gov.in/census_and
_you/age_structure_and_marital_statu
s.aspx
 OUR APPROACH TOWARDS SOLUTION
Calculation of N-95 Calculation of Indian
Sets for 1 Person from population based on age
Feb’21 to Dec’21 group seggregation taking
Feb’21 as baseline
Calculation of Mortality Rate Final Calculation of
in India from Feb’21 to Approx. No of N-95 Masks
Sept’21 required for next 3Months

ASSUMPTIONS
1: Assuming the calculation is for estimating the Total No of Masks required
for the total eligible population of the Country for example: A Govt. scheme for
providing N95 masks for all irrespective of usage patterns.
2: 1 Mask can be used 5 times if used in rotation not continuously.
CALCULATION & ASSUMPTIONS FOR FEB’21 TO DEC’21
(11MONTHS):
1 Mask can be used by 1 Person = 5 times

01 1 Person will use 5 Mask in rotation of 5 times = 5 * 5 = 25 days

Appx. No. of Days from Feb’21 to Dec’21 = 330 days
No. of Sets of N-95 for 330 days for 1 Person = 330/25 = 13 Sets
Mask per person = 13 * 5 = 65 Masks

Population of India as on Feb’21 = 136,00,00,000

02
0-5 Age Group = 11% of 136,00,00,000 = 149,600, 000

No of Deaths in Feb’21 = 1,55,614

03
No of Deaths in Sept’21 = 4,42,907
Average No of Death in 8 month = (4,42,907 - 1,55,614) =287,293 / 8 = 35912
Per month Appx. Death rate = 35912
For 11 Month Death rate = 3,95,032
Population for which Mask will be required = 136,00,00,000 - 287,293 - 149,600, 000 - 3,95,032 = 1209717675
Total Mask will be required = 149,204,968 * 65 = 78,631,648,875
CALCULATION & ASSUMPTIONS FOR OCT’21 TO DEC’21
(3MONTHS):
1 Mask can be used by 1 Person = 5 times

01 1 Person will use 5 Mask in rotation of 5 times = 5 * 5 = 25 days

Appx. No. of Days from Oct’21 to Dec’21 = 92 days
No. of Sets of N-95 for 92 days for 1 Person = 92/25 = 4 Sets
Mask per person = 4 * 5 = 20 Masks

Population of India as on Feb’21 = 136,00,00,000

02
0-5 Age Group = 11% of 136,00,00,000 = 149,600, 000

No of Deaths in Feb’21 = 1,55,614

03
No of Deaths in Sept’21 = 4,42,907
Average No of Death in 8 month = (4,42,907 - 1,55,614) = 287,293 / 8 = 35912
Per month Appx. No of Deaths = 35912
For 3 Month No of Death = 1,07,736
Population for which Mask will be required = 136,00,00,000 - 149,600, 000 - 1,07,736 - 287,293 = 1,210,005,025
Total Mask will be required = 1,210,005,025 * 20 = 24,200,100,500
~78,631,648,875
~786 Crore Total No of N-95 Masks will be required
from Feb’21 to Dec’21 (11Months)
~24,200,100,500
~242 Crore Total No of N-95 Masks will be required
from Oct’21 to Dec’21 (3Months)