Course Code: FINM542 CourseTitle: Research Methodology-I

Course Instructor: Dr. vishal sarin

Academic Task No.: CA-2 evaluate the understanding of various statistical tools learned in the classes.

Class : MBA

Date Of Submission: 17-oct-2021Module-I

Evaluation Parameters:. Project Report

LearningOutcomes: (Student to write briefly about learnings obtained from the

academictasks)
GROUPS DETAILS:
S. No. Name RolL no. Reg No.

1 Mohit sharma RQ21396b55 12101951

2 Shilpa sharma RQ2139B56 12101952

3 Nemalidinne anki RQ2139B54 12101950

reddy

4 Aju rajan RQ2139B57 12101955

5 Kolhe bhagyashri RQ2139B58 12101958

tushar

Declaration:

I declare that this Assignment is group work. I have not copied it from any
other students work or from any other source except where due
acknowledgement is made explicitly in the text, nor has any part been written
for me by any other person.
 Student Signature :
Aju Rajan kolhe bhagyashri tushar Nemalidinne anki reddy Shilpa Sharma Mohit sharma

Evaluator’s comments (For Instructor’s use only)

General Observations Suggestions for Improvement Best part of assignment

Evaluator‟s Signature and Date

Marks Obtained: Max. Marks:

PEER RATING

Aju Rajan – 07

Mohit Sharma - 10

Shilpa Sharma -10

Kolhe bhagyashri tushar- 10

Nemalidinne anki reddy -10

INTRODUCTION

Agriculture is an important sector in the Indian economy as it contributes about 17% to Total
GDP and provides employment to more than 60% of the population. Indian agriculture has
registered an impressive growth in the last few decades. Production of processed food has
increased from 51 million tons (MT) in 1950-51 to 250 MT during 2011-12 the highest since
then independence. Seed oil production (nine major seeds) also increased from 5 MT to 28
MT at the same time. Rapid growth has helped Indian agriculture to mark its existence at the
global level. India ranks among the top three agricultural producers goods such as paddy,
wheat, pulses, nuts, rapeseeds, fruits, vegetables, sugarcane, tea, jute, cotton, tobacco leaves,
etc. (GOI, 2008- 09). However, commercially, Indian agriculture still faces problems such as
low market integration and connectivity, access to reliable and timely information required
by farmers on various issues in agriculture. Also, the agricultural marketing sector is
characterized by segregated sales.

Significant post-harvest losses, many market intermediaries; high transaction costs, lack of
Awareness and several other socio-economic factors are some of the problems they face on
Indian agriculture. The agricultural inputs produced must perform a series of functions such
as harvesting, threshing, crossing, bagging, shipping, storage, processing and exchange
before they reached the market, and as seen in several studies across the country, they exist
significant loss of plant extraction in all these stages. The Department of Food's latest
measure and Civil Supplies, Government of India, lists the total amount of food losses
generated after harvest grain 10 percent of the total product or about 20 million Mt,
equivalent to the amount of grain produced in Australia each year. In a country where 20
percent of the population malnourished, the post-harvest loss of 20 million Mt annually is a
major preventable waste.

According to a World Bank study (1999), post-grain losses in India are 7-10 per cent percent
of total production from farm level to market and 4-5 percent of market and distribution
levels. Throughout the program, such losses were processed at 11-15 million Mt. annual
food grains, which included 3-4 million Mt of wheat and 5-7 million MT of rice. With
average consumption per person about 15 kg of cereals per month, this loss can be enough to
feed about 70-100 million people, that is about 1/3 of the poor or all of India the number of
provinces of Bihar and Haryana together for a period of one year. So, obviously that post-
harvest losses affect small and medium-sized economic levels. Land cultivation, as one of
the most important sectors of Indian agriculture, plays an important role participation in the
national economy. There are a number of agricultural crops suitable for almost all types of
agricultural areas of the country. Currently agriculture contributes 28 percent to agriculture
GDP. The country has emerged as the world's largest producer of Mango, Banana, Coconut
and the second largest producer and exporter of tea, coffee, cashew and spices. About 39
percent mangoes and 23 percent of the world's bananas produced in India. The world has
made history high productivity (25.4 tons / ha) in the form of grapes in the world. Only 2
percent of horticulture product is processed, 0.4 percent is exported and approximately 20-30
percent is lost or recovered damage to the market chain. Export of fresh and used fruit,
vegetables, cut flowers, dried the flowers also kept picking. Fruit and Vegetable Production
in India is currently under construction at the level of 202.68 million tons (NHB, 2008),
which is projected to be increased to 300 milliontons in 2012 (GOI, 2002)

GDP OF INDIA IN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR, FISHERY AND

FORESTRY

In This Reaserch Study We Find out The Various Statistical Tours Using Data On Gdp And
Annual Growth Of Agriculture, Forestry And Fishery Over A Past Years In India.

The share of agriculture in gross domestic product (GDP) reached about 20 percent for the
first time in 17 years, making it the only bright spot in GDP performance between 2020-21.
The resilience of the farming community in the face of adversity makes agriculture the only
sector to grow positive growth by 3.4 percent in value every 2020-21, with some sectors
declining.
Agricultural share in GDP has risen to 19.9 percent in 2020-21 from 17.8 percent in 2019-20.
The deadline for the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP was 20 percent until 2003-
04.
This was also the year when the sector blocked 9.5 percent GDP growth, following the severe
drought of 2002 when growth rate was poor.
In 2019-20 (according to the previous four quarters), total grain production (296.65 million
tons) in the country was 11.44 million higher than in 2018-19.
And it was 26.87 million tons higher than five years ago’(2014-15 to 2018-19) average
production of 269.78 million tons.
The product also increased the distribution of food grains under the National Food Safety Act
(NFSA) which increased by 56 percent in 2020-21, compared to 2019-20. The government
has allocated 943.53 tons of food to the Northern Hemisphere as of December 2020.
The study also referred to the new farm rules as a “cure” and “not a disease” in a message to
the farmer against the rules.
Using the statistical analysis, we find out regression with the two variable factors such as
GDP and annual growth rate of agriculture in the different years. We found out the
correllation of the variableand regression such as linear and curve regression and measured
about the degree and direction of the co relation of fishery and forestry and we measure index
number using the data of GDP agriculture with this analysis could be appropriate with the
data which has been taken from world bank.

THE REASERCH QUETION IONCLUDES IDENTIFIED BY THE GROUP

FOLLOWS

1. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF GDP ON INDIA WITH AGRICULTURE, FISHERY AND

FORESTRY
Agriculture, forestry and fishery spent around 20 billion in the financial year of 2019 and
2020. The gross value has been growing rapidly. The largest share is coming from the crops
with in the industry of 50% in the same financial year. Although fisherysector is growing
rapidly in the course of time. When we look in the forestry the contribution was around
TRILLION BILLION with the increase in trends the contribution has been increased for the
financial year of 2018.

2.TARGETED AREA for DATA COLLECTION ON GDP

the targeted area could be agriculture production and animal production that includes the
establishent of livelystock such as fish farms and aqua culture.apart from that crop production
includes tobacco grains and wheat. this could be the targeted are afor the particular sectors,
production of some types of crops for livestock could always depend upon country based and
region base with the conditions of environment, this could affect the gdp and per capita
income of a particular country.

3.REASERCH APPROACHES
in addittional to suggest in the importance reaserch question ourgroup identified possible
methods and approches to study the questions listed above
we first focused on extracxtion of data. we preapred short intro of the topic then identifies
reaserch question. then using the statistic techniques, we found regration and corelation
techniques as well as index numbe

CORRELATION
An analysis of the relationship of two or more variables is usually called correlation. Here we
are analyzing the relationship of two variables percentage of GDP and percentage of annual
growth of agriculture, forestry and fishing sector in India about 30 years.
Table 1 :- percentage of GDP and annual growth of agriculture, forestry and fishing
sector for 30years in India

year Agriculture, forestry, and fishing, Agriculture, forestry, and fishing,

value added (% of GDP) value added (annual % growth)
1971 38.10 -1.88
1972 38.02 -5.02
1980 33.06 12.89
1981 31.72 4.60
1982 30.57 -0.28
1983 31.32 10.12
1984 30.15 1.59
1985 28.64 0.31
1986 27.47 -0.41
1987 26.88 -1.59
1988 27.98 15.64
1996 25.42 9.92
1997 24.35 -2.55
1998 24.38 6.32
1999 22.99 2.67
2000 21.61 -0.01
2001 21.62 6.01
2002 19.54 -6.60
2003 19.58 9.05
2004 17.81 0.18
2012 16.85 1.49
 2013 17.15 5.57
2014 16.79 -0.22
2015 16.17 0.65
2016 16.36 6.80
2017 16.56 6.61
2018 15.97 2.56
2019 16.68 4.31
2020 18.32 3.03

Interpretation:- for 30 years the percentage of GDP is varying at different years and for
annual growth there are some negative shades in different years

Correlation of the variables

The correlation of the percentage of GDP and percentage of annual growth are -0.02854 here
the correlation is weak negative correlation because the correlation is lie in between 0 and
- 0.50 so it causes weak negative correlation. Which because when one variable increases the
other decreases there is not any liner trend .
Diagram :-1
20.00

15.00

10.00
Axis Title

5.00 Series1
Linear (Series1)
0.00
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
-5.00

-10.00
Axis Title

Interpretation : The scatter plot demonstrates a weak negative correlation for the years . the
line shows a slight negative trends and the points constitute around the line . This decrease is
mainly because of different factors such as population pressure lack of support facility,
decline in social fertility etc. this causes the decline in different years

Diagram 2:- chart contain the %of GDP and % annual growth of agriculture forestry and
fisheries sector
 45.00
40.00
35.00 Agriculture, forestry,
30.00 and fishing, value
25.00 added (% of GDP)
20.00
15.00 Agriculture, forestry,
10.00 and fishing, value
5.00 added (annual %
0.00 growth)
-5.00 1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
-10.00

Interpretation:- as from the correlation itself we can identify the as annual growth in the
chart is showing downwards and shows negative trend

Regression Analysis
The dictionary meaning of regression is “stepping back.” The term regression was first used
by British Biometrician Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911) in the latter part of the 19th century.
In statistics regression technique or analysis is applicable in all those fields where two or
more relative variables have the tendency to go back to the average.
“Regression is the measure of the average relationship between two or more variables in
terms of the original units of the data.” The variable which is used to predict the variable of
interest is called the independent variable or explanatory variable and the variable which is
predicted or estimated is called the dependent variable or explained variable.
In economic and business field, regression analysis is of great practical use. By its
application, several phenomena can be quantitively predicted.
Y= a+bX
Where Y= dependent variable,
X= independent variable,
a=Y intercept,
b=slope.
Table: Summary of regression analysis

Source: calculated in excel.

Graph: Regression graph of data
 Index Number-
Index number tells us about the change in a variable across a determined period

It is expressed/indicated in average form.

The formula for a Simple Aggregative Price Index is
P01=P1/P0*100
Where P1 and P0 indicate the price of the commodity in the present and base period
respectively.
Table:3: index number calculated in excel.
CONCLUSION

1. The percentage growth in GDP and percentage annual growth of agriculture, forestry,
fishing and value added sector having negative correlation so, there is weak linear
relation between both variables. And percentage annual growth is change by
movement in percentage of GDP.
2. According to regression analysis prediction is saying that in coming year percentage
growth will decrease nature.
3. By index number we are concluding that in period of 30 years 2-3 % up and downs
are happening in percentage of GDP, and in percentage annual growth is showing
huge inflation and deflation.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1. India Is Expected To Achieve The Ambitious Goal Of Doubling Farm Income By

2024.
2. The Agriculture Sector In India Expected To Gorw In Coming Years Due To
Increased Investment In Agriculture Infrastucture Such Asirrigation Facilites
Warehousing And Cold Storgae.
3. India’s Gross Value Added (Gva) At Basic Prices Incresed By 5.8 Percent During The
April -June 2017 The Driven By Agiculture And Government Spending Should Be
Increased
4. Forestry And Fishing Sector Should By 20% In This Quarter.
5. The Government Of India Targets To Increase The Avaerge Income Of A Farmer
Householder At Current Price Should Be Changed Around Rs 219,724 By 2022 -23
Rs 96.703 In 2015-16