POPULATION BASICS POPULATION HISTORY AND TRENDS

What makes populations change in size and composition?
There are 3 basic controls: birth rate, death rate, and migration.
These controls combine to define a population’s growth rate.
Growth rate is the key to understanding how population change.
GROWTH RATE
Birth Rate- the number of live births per 1000 people per year.
It is calculated using the total number of live births in a year and the mid-year number
of people in a population. The number of births per person is multiplied by 1000 to
determine the birth rate.
Death rate- the number of deaths per 1000 people per year.
The total number of deaths in a year and the mid-year number of people in the
population, the death rate is calculated the same way as the birth rate.
These birth and death rates are for the population as a whole. They are not specific to earth was about 6 billion.
a particular age group (such as ages 15 to 49) called “crude rates”
Migration- takes into account the number of people who move from one area to
another
Predicting the future of human population requires understanding its past and it’s
present. The history of population changes helps explain how people got to this point
and identifies the future- defining trends that are in place. History shows that human
population has increased exponentially.
Even though disease, famine, war, and natural disaster have taken tremendous tolls
on human population through history, the relentless increase in the number of people
on Earth has continued. We know that in the near future, within your lifetime, there will
be a more densely populated world with the most growth occurring in less developed
countries and an increasing concentration of people living in cities- the megacities of
the future.
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH
Human population has change in 3 general stages.
1. Prior to 0,000 BC, people were hunter-gathered.
They fed themselves with the animals they could catch and the fruits and
plants they could collect. The food resources of the land were limit on how many
people could be fed. This limit, a short life expectancy of perhaps 20 years and low
birth rates kept the population from rapidly increasing. The total number of people in
2. 10 000 BC, people first domestic plants and animals.
This was the beginning of agriculture and the agrarian stage of human
population development.

Immigration- is migration into
Emigration- is migration out of an area.
Migration helps understand population increases or decreases in specific areas.
EXAMPLE: The recent increase in the population of the Mat Valley in Alaska is due
largely to immigration, not a big increase in the number of births in the local hospital.
Since about 1990, 30% or more of the United States population growth has been from
migration of people into the country.
Migration can make a big difference in the population of the specific area. But
migration means that for every place that gains population, another place loses
population.
For the Earth as a whole, the difference between birth rate and death rate is the
human population’s “natural growth rate.”
Growth rate is commonly expressed as the percentage population change. If the birth
rate in a population is 30 (per 1000 people per year) and the death rate is 20 (per 1000 The better nutrition and health care that have come with economic development have
people per year) then the natural growth rate is 10 (per 1000 per year).
Agriculture allowed people to produce more food and to reside far longer in specific
places. Life expectancy and birth rates increased. Growth rates were low tough,
perhaps 0.1% and
3. took 10 000 years to A.D. however worldwide population increased to reach
250,000 million. From 0 A.D. to the end of agrarian stage in 1750 A.D. however
population increased to 750 to 800 million people. America’s original 13 colonies
were going full speed, just 255 years ago, world population was still less than 1
billion people. Things change dramatically with the onset of the industrial
revolution. As people learned to use new forms of energy especially coal and
petroleum they became better food producers, started controlling diseases and
live more safely.
Life expectancies increased to about 50 years in 1850 and to 60 or more today.
Male in United States- 75 yrs. Old
Females – 80 years old.
added years to people’s lives.

EXAMPLE: Population is growing at the rate of 1% per year The worlds population has had some setbacks from time to time as disease, famine,
(10/1000= 0.01 or 1%) war and natural disaster increased death rates.

If migration is taken into account, the average annual growth rate for a given  Natural disasters such as the Indian Ocean tsunami of December 26, 2004,
population can be determined (average annual growth rate=birth rate- death have killed hundreds thousands of people in just hours.
rate+immigration- emigration.)  Famines such as Irish Potato Famine in 1845 to 1849 have killed hundreds
of thousands to a few million people in a few years.
Natural growth rates vary between regions of the world. Developed countries tend to  Wars have led to the deaths of millions; over 50 million died between 1939
have low to negative natural growth rates. and 1945 in World War II.
 Diseases, such as bubonic plague, which killed about 25 million people or
Germany, example has growth rate of -0.2%. one-third the population of Europe in 5 years(1347-1352) have been
Less developed countries tend to have higher growth rates. devastating to particular areas or societies.
The average natural growth rate for less developed countries, excluding China, is
1.8%
DISEASE
Nigeria in Africa has one of the highest 3.4%. If growth rate is zero (birth rate is equal Today most people understand that unclean water can be bad for their health. This is
to death rate) and migration is not a factor, there is said to be zero population growth true for water that is contaminated with germs people pass on in their sewage.
or ZPG.
Waterborne bacteria have cause epidemic of diseases such as cholera and typhoid
ZPG means the population is stabilized at a specific size and composition. ZPG is fever.
considered a worthy long-term goal for Earth’s human population by many who are
concerned about people’s impacts on the environment. People did not get the connection between bacteria-bearing water and disease until
about 150 years ago. The world’s devastating disease outbreaks such as plague that
Growth rates are a key to predicting future populations. Population growth has another devastated medieval Europe were thought to be caused by bad air or just “God’s will.”
aspect that helps us understand why the number of people can increase rapidly. If a Disease seemed to come out of nowhere and kill previously healthy people in a day or
population has a positive growth rate for many years, it will experience what is called 2.
exponential growth.
Understanding that unclean water was bad for human health started with the
Growth rates often used to calculate doubling time- preserving work of John Snow, a doctor in London, England during mid-nineteenth
The amount of time it will take for a given population to double. century.
Some people who study populations theorize that populations evolve in four stages. Dr. Snow, other doctors and scientist suspected that disease were caused and spread
The theory of evolving character is called demographic transition. by something in water.
Demography- is the science dealing with the ddistribution and vitl statistics of Cholera outbreak in 1854 in London, Dr. Snow tested his hypothesis that disease was
populations. being spread through unclean water. He found out that almost people died lived near a
community well on broad Street.
 2 people died but live outside the Broad Street area were found to have bottle and use
water from Broad Street well.
The well water is contaminated with human waste.
 Cholera- causing bacteria in the water were not identified by this time.
Dr. Snow’s studies marked through data gathering and the testing of multiple
hypotheses have gone to history of Landmark scientific study of disease. He is known
as the “Father of Epidemiology” the study of diseases in a population.
DISEASE TODAY
 Disease today is HIV/AIDS. Over 20 million people have already died; 1.9
million died in 2003.
Sothern Africa was the hardest hit (20%)
Swaziland have HIV/AIDS (39%)
Less than 15 years old (43%)
65 or older- (3%)
 SARS (Severe acute respiratory syndrome) is limiting effects of deadly
disease. It is a virus that attacks the human respiratory system.
Pneumonia-like effects (10%) up to (50%) older who get SARS died.
1st reported occurrence in CHINA (Feb. 2003), SARS had spread more than 24
countries in North and South America, Europe and Asia.
The international effort to contain the 2003 SARS outbreak is a success of global
disease control.
Currently the world is concerned about the potential spread of avian (bird) influenza
(flu) through large parts of human population. Bird flu could be the next big
international challenge to controlling disease.
TRENDS
Changes in human population over the past 50 years define several trends that help to Monaco- (a city that is also a country) has 44, 000 people per square mile.
predict how this population will change in the future.
Organizations like United Nations and Population Reference Bureau in Washington
D.C. make special efforts to understand ongoing changes in human population.
Their studies help show what size, distribution and age of the human population is
likely be in 2050.
The fastest growing period of human population occurred in 20 century. The highest It is estimated that 75 billion tons of soil are lost globally each year through the effects
th
growth rate is 2.1 percent was in the 1960’s and the highest number of people added
in a year is 86 million was in the 1980’s. In the year 2004, the world population totaled $400 billion per year, or over $60 per year for every person on Earth.
6.4 billion. In the year 2050 it could 9.3 billion or about 50% more than today.
Family planning is having an impact. Over 60% of married woman of childbearing age
(15-49) in Latin America use contraception.
China, national policies, mandatory sterilization if a couple had more one child, has led productivity as farmland is irreparably harmed. Soil commonly thought of as renewable
to a 2004 growth rate of only 0.6%.
POPULATION AND THE ENVIRONMENT
 People had an impact on the environment, and the more people there are, the greater
their impact.
 With 50% increase in population by 2050 or 3 billion more people, it is important to
understand their environment effects and how negative ones can be mitigated or
prevented.
POPULATION AND BIODIVERSITY
Biodiversity- refers to the entire variability of life, including species, ecosystems and
genetic diversity, is a good thing.
There are 1.4 million described or known species, but estimates of the total number of
species ranges from 10 million to as many as 30 million.
Species naturally become extinct.
Most Species that have evolved on earth are now extinct, having lived on average for
2 to 10 million years.
Some scientist think that the rate of extinction is now high, perhaps as high as during
some of the great mass extinctions of the distant past.
Estimating contemporary extinction rate is a hard job. It requires many assumptions
about the actual number of species and the rates of habitat loss. But some are
convinced that extinction rates rise as human population increases.
ANOTHER ISLAND ECOLOGY EXAMPLE:
Islands are a great place to study populations and their evolution.
Darwin studies about species made the Galapagos Island famous.
Other ecology studies on island have shown a key relation between habitat area and
the number of species; in other words- the more the habitat area, the greater the
number of species.
The number of reptile and amphibian species on Caribbean Islands. If an island area
is 90% smaller than another one, it will have half as many species. This is the
important relationship because species diversity is proportional to habitat area. This
relationship is a foundation of the conclusion that biodiversity is seriously jeopardized
by human developments. The more people change that land and display or destroy
habitat, the fewer species there will be. People can decrease biodiversity in other ways
such as hunting or by introducing nonindigenous species that out-compete native
species.
POPULATION AND LAND
The Earth is pretty large, but the polar ice caps and the oceans are not places where
humans can live.
This leaves about 25% of earth’s surface (49 square miles) to even potentially be
habitable, including some pretty marginal areas like the large deserts.
With 6.4 billion people, the current population density is 50 people per square
kilometer (130 people per square mile) of potentially habitable land. When the number
of people reaches 9.3 billion in 2050, the population density will be 73 people per
square kilometer (190 people per square mile). This about 3.4 acres per person.
ISLANDS THAT DENSELY POPULATED
Malta- island in the Mediterranean Sea, has 3,229 people per square mile.
Cities have the highest population densities.
Macao, China has 58, 100 people per square mile-that is packed.
HOW MUCH LAND DO PEOPLE USED
People use land for crops, pasture, forests, and other resource developments and they
have an impact on land when it becomes polluted or degraded, especially by erosion.
Example:
of land degradation and erosion. The value of this land resource has been placed at
Increasing numbers of people do not lead to increasing land degradation and soil loss.
In some cases, people actually affect land and soil to the point that the land’s
resource that can be used over and over, can actually become a nonrenewable
resource due to people’s action. People impacts on the hydrosphere, especially fresh
water,are another example.
POPULATION AND FRESH WATER.(hydrosphere)
Water is one of Earth’s resources that is essential to humans.
It makes up 60% of the weight of people’s bodies and they die in about a week without
it.
The human body need about 8 glasses of water (about ½ gallon) a day to be healthy.
Drinking clean water every day is essential to sustaining healthy life. More population
growth means more need for clean, fresh water.
Today people need over 3 billion gallons a day of Earth’s fresh water to meet their
drinking needs. If the population increases to 9.3 billion people in 2050, then an
additional 1.5 to 2 billion gallons per day will be needed 50% more than is being used
for drinking today.
WHERE WATER CAME FROM?
Water resources are already being stretched around the world. In the United States
water resources are being depleted, some in ways that cannot be reversed. People
pollute water resources. For an Earth resource as essential as water, it is surprising
how much people take it for granted. As the world’s population grows and water
becomes more scarce and valuable, perhaps people will be more concerned about
how it is used.
POPULATION AND AIR QUALITY
The emissions from cars and other vehicles are a major cause, although industrial
sources of pollutants are also contributors.
Emissions that degrade air quality include several gases, but carbon monoxide (C0)
and nitrogen dioxide (N02) are two primary examples.
NO2 involved in reaction that need energy from sunlight (photochemical reaction) that
create low-level ozone and ultimately help make smog.
Smog can cause respiratory problems for people.
In some cities smog alerts warn people to stay inside during times of particularly bad
air quality. Smog can get so thick that it is difficult to see through it.
New instruments onboard Earth monitoring satellites can measure the concentration of Anthropogenic changes- people cause environmental changes.
air pollutants in the atmosphere. They can survey the entire world in 6 days.
Using N02, the global satellite monitoring survey show that cities, industrialized areas,
coal-fired power plants and shipping lanes are sources of higher N02
concentrations in the atmosphere.
That air pollutants from these sources are dispersed in gigantic plumes around the
world.
Example: C0 plumes from the burning of grass and forest land in South America make
their way across the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean all the way to Australia.
SUSTAINABILITY
The enormous and growing human population is using land, decreasing natural habitat
and biodiversity, depleting water resources and lowering air quality around the world.
This changes in Earth Systems follow directly from people’s efforts to provide
themselves and their families with shelter, food, water, clothing and fuel.
Some people in the United States, contribute the changes to provide a high standard
of living that includes everything from iPods to SUV’s.
Not renewable resources are used up when they are consumed
Coal, oil and natural gas energy resources
Soil and water made them nonrenewable. (it takes hundreds and thousands years for
soil to redevelop.
Sustainability, providing for the present needs of people in ways that do not jeopardize
the needs of people in the future.
Specific need to met in future (shelter, food and clothing)
To live sustainability include the wide spectrum of needs from clothing to pretected
habitat and biodiversity.
Achieving worldwide sustainability is very challenging goal. It implies tat all people
should have the opportunity for a healthy and safe life in balance with the natural
world.
One factors related to understanding sustainability is Earth’s “Carrying Capacity”,
“Carrying Capacity”, is the number of people Earth can sustainably support some
reasonable level of economic and social well-being, that is standard of living.
EASTER ISLAND
Easter Island- 64-square mile pile of volcanic rocks as far from other places in the
world. (South Pacific Ocean 2,300 miles west of South America.
Moai- famous for large stone statues (carve in a quarry on one of the islands
volcanoes, move to coastal settings and erected large stone platforms.  Evolution of the atmosphere- came from volcanism and cyanobacteria
-they used to honor ancestors and helped conform relations between Gods
and the island people’s chief.
-the people were Polynesians
393- moai move from quarry to platforms
97- left on transport roads
397- under construction quarry
Large Palms and 21 other tree species- now extinct. (these tree were the key
resources that people needed to make sea-going canoes, roofs for their homes and
ropes. Canoes need for fishing and the ropes for logs were needed to transport and
erect moai. (used for fuel and cremate the deceased, more lands for garden)
First European Dutch Explorer Jacob Roggeveen- arrived on April 5, 722 (the forest
were gone)
48 native plants species o Easter Island
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AROUND YOU
Environmental change happens all around you.
Example: People have adopted fairly well to weather changes. (we have summer and
winter clothes, insulated homes and buildings and we schedule our vacations around
the seasons. Extreme weather conditions like hurricanes can be devastating)
Glaciation- when massive ice sheets covered most of Canada and extended south
into the Midwest states.
-the water cycle moved tremendous volumes of water from the oceans and
stored it on land in extensive glacial ice sheets.
As the oceans lost water, sea level became lower and lower.
SHORT TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
Earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslide, oil spills and floods
Major impacts within seconds, hours or days but changes people
immediately perceive are commonly a small part of the total change
 . Earthquakes- cause changes in the geosphere within seconds or minutes.
Great Earthquakes- is the largest earthquakes.
 Volcanic eruptions- can last for hours and days and even weeks.
-it can take few years to hundred years to realized.
-gases and solid particles blasted into atmosphere at volcanoes.
-the erupted debris that drifts and settles out downwind of volcano called
ash (is mineral rich and beginning material for soils.)
-it can take hundreds of years to fertile soil to develop from volcanic ash.
Through soils the effects of volcanic eruptions can last for thousands of years.
 Landslide- commonly catastrophic failures of the ground’s stability that occur in
seconds to minutes.
- If a landslide dams a stream and a lake forms, it will take years for new
aquatic habitats to fully develop.
-Some landslide lead to increase of erosion and sediments dispersal that
also cause habitat changes.
Slump- is the landslide creep slowly downhill.
 Oil spills- in the ocean- all the oil released to the environment within minutes,
hours or days.
-the released oil, in weeks to years becomes widely dispersed, evaporates
or accumulates on the seafloor or coast.
Animals encounter gooey oil for days or weeks- may takes years to recover.
 Floods- occurring within minutes to take days to complete to reach maximum
high water and receded to normal levels.
-Thunderstorms in mountains above desert canyons can cause flash floods
that descend quickly with deadly consequences.
LONG-TERM ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES
Process take place at show rates and require longer periods to accomplish
significant changes.
Example: Coastal erosion can happen as the result of sudden storm at very fast
rates but it can also happen very slowly, taking tens to hundreds of years to become
noticeable.
Earth- 4.5 billion years old.
Earth scientist- study Earth history over 300 years.
-released gases especially carbon dioxide and water vapor.
-volcanoes do not emit oxygen but photosynthetic cyanobacteria
Banded iron formation- iron became trapped in iron-rich sediments.
 Origin of Oceans- water was component of minerals like the primordial material,
ice or gas particles in comets, interplanetary debris and volcanic activity released
water from the geosphere into atmosphere.
 Evolution of Life- biosphere started in single cell organism.
3.4 billion y.o- oldest fossil and present in carbonaceous sediments.
Multicell organism- algae.
 Assembling Continents- plate tectonic motions have cause continents to collide,
split apat and collide again.
Sipercontinents- collision aggregated all the continents (Rodinia and Panggea