Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Matt Campbell
Director, Utility Power Plant Products
December 1, 2010
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities
Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are statements that do not represent historical
facts and may be based on underlying assumptions. The company uses words and phrases such as
"expects," “believes,” “plans,” “anticipates,” "continue," "growing," "will," to identify forward-looking
statements in this presentation, including forward-looking statements regarding: (a) our plans and
expectations regarding our cost reduction roadmap, (b) cell manufacturing ramp plan, (c) financial
forecasts, (d) Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) reduction, (e) future solar and traditional electricity rates,
and (f) future percentage allocation of SunPower solar panels within our systems business. Such forward-
looking statements are based on information available to the company as of the date of this release and
involve a number of risks and uncertainties, some beyond the company's control, that could cause actual
results to differ materially from those anticipated by these forward-looking statements, including risks and
uncertainties such as: (i) the company's ability to obtain and maintain an adequate supply of raw materials
and components, as well as the price it pays for such; (ii) general business and economic conditions,
including seasonality of the industry; (iii) growth trends in the solar power industry; (iv) the continuation of
governmental and related economic incentives promoting the use of solar power; (v) the improved
availability of third-party financing arrangements for the company's customers; (vi) construction difficulties
or potential delays, including permitting and transmission access and upgrades; (vii) the company's ability
to ramp new production lines and realize expected manufacturing efficiencies; (viii) manufacturing
difficulties that could arise; (ix) the success of the company's ongoing research and development efforts to
compete with other companies and competing technologies; and (x) other risks described in the
company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended January 3rd, 2010, and other filings with the
Securities and Exchange Commission. These forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as
representing the company's views as of any subsequent date, and the company is under no obligation to,
and expressly disclaims any responsibility to, update or alter its forward-looking statements, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise.
2
SunPower 2010 – 25th Anniversary
2010: Revenue $2.15-$2.25B World-leading solar conversion efficiency
3
PV Technology Vertical Integration
Your Full-Service Utility-Scale PV Technology Partner
Systems
Solar module EPC Operation
Integration
4 4
SunPower 300MW+ Global Power Plants Installations
NEVADA
ITALY
15 MW Nellis AFB
45MW Montalto
HAWAII 3.1 MW Las Vegas WD
24 MW Montalto
1.5 MW Lanai 2.3 MW Toletino
Modesto
Irrigation District 1.0 MW Ferentino
25 MW AC 1.0 MW Siron/Soleto KOREA
McHenry Solar 6.0 MW Samsung
EAST COAST – U.S. SPAIN
Farm 2.2 MW Mungyeong
25 MW AC FPL–Desoto 29 MW Naturener 2.0 MW JeonJu
10 MW AC FPL– 23 MW Trujillo
CALIFORNIA 1.4 MW Hampyeong
SpaceCoast 23 MW Jumilla
1.7 MW Lake County 1.0 MW Gwangju
1.6 MW Merck 18 MW Olivenza
1.2 MW Peninsula Packaging
1.0 MW FPL–NASA 14 MW Lorca
1.2 MW Napa Valley College
1.0 MW J & J 12 MW Almodovar
1.1 MW Rancho Water
1.0 MW QVC Network 11 MW Magasquilla
1.1 MW Grundfos Pump
1.0 MW SAS Institute 11 MW Ciudad Real
1.1 MW North Bay Reg. Water
1.1 MW Inland Empire Utility 9.9 MW Zaragoza
1.1 MW Chico Water Recycling 8.4 MW Isla Mayor
1.1 MW Agilent Technologies 8.3 MW Guadarranque Australia
1.1 MW Skinner Water Facility 6.9 MW Caceres 1.0 MW Marble Bar
1.1 MW Gap Pacific Distr. Ctr. 6.0 MW Atersa
1.1 MW Marine Corp AGCC 4.8 MW Llerena
1.0 MW Sonoma County Water 3.8 MW Lebrija
1.0 MW Applied Materials
PORTUGAL
11 MW Serpa
10 MW Ferreira
5
T0 Tracker
FPL Desoto – 25MW
6
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
The LCOE equation is one analytical tool that can be used to compare
the cost of energy from alternative technologies when different scales
of operation, investment or operating time periods exist
7
Why Costs Must be Levelized
$20,000,000
$18,000,000
$16,000,000
$14,000,000
$12,000,000
$10,000,000
$8,000,000
$6,000,000
$4,000,000
$2,000,000
$-
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Low carbon energy sources such as solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro share the
properties of higher up-front capital costs and lower annual operating costs
8
Why Costs Must be Levelized
$10,000,000
$9,000,000
$8,000,000
$7,000,000
$6,000,000
$5,000,000
4% Inflation
$4,000,000
$3,000,000
$2,000,000
2% Inflation
$1,000,000
$-
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Fossil fuel based energy sources have lower capital costs and higher annual
costs which are highly sensitive to fuel inflation
9
Using LCOE to Evaluate Solar Power Plant Technologies
Silicon PV
Thin Film PV
10
The PV Power Plant LCOE
Capital Capacity
Cost Factor
Cost of
Capital
LCOE
11
Detailing the LCOE
12
The PV Power Plant LCOE
Capital Capacity
Cost Factor
LCOE
13
Capital Cost Levers for PV Power Plants
Panel cost
– Increase manufacturing scale
– Improve conversion efficiency
– Reduce material consumption
– Simplify manufacturing processes
BOS cost
– Reduce materials through design
– Reduce materials through panel efficiency
– Reduce labor through design
– Reduce labor through panel efficiency
– Reduce skill required for construction
– Optimize supply chain
– Accelerate construction timelines
14
SunPower cell efficiency history
Gen 3
24.2% Note Gen 2 distribution is
25% Laboratory Prototyping Results tighter than Gen 1 distribution
Cell Efficiency (%)
22% Gen 1
20.6%
21%
20.6%
20%
15
© 2010 SunPower Corp.
SunPower Efficiency/BOS Case Study: CVSR
Most power plants are constrained
SunPower maximizes MW/m2
More MW/m2 lowers BOS/kWh
– Land
– Permitting/development
– Transmission/substation
– Foundations/structures
– Cabling/trenching
– Shipping
– Roads
Solar Array Open Space – Fencing/security
– Construction management
SPWR 14% x-Si 11% TF – O&M
250 MW 186 MW 146 MW
16
1.4GW - Fab 3: Production Begins Q4 2010
17
Oasis Evolution: Standard systems, lower cost, more features
18
Oasis Power Blocks
Drive Standardization, Enable Whole System Component Sales
19
Oasis Modular Power Plant Savings
Oasis 25% Balance-of-System Savings by Category
100%
9%
8%
80% 8%
Inverter, Cabling Electrical &
60% Tracker Structural
Design,
Components System
Overhead,
Optimization
Installation
40% Commissioning
20%
0%
2010 BOS Cost Standardization / Materials / Installation 2011 Oasis BOS
Volume Savings Design Savings Efficiency Cost
Savings
20
The PV Power Plant LCOE
Capital Capacity
Cost Factor
Cost of
Capital
LCOE
21
20%
40%
60%
80%
0%
100%
120%
12:00:00 AM
1:00:00 AM
2:00:00 AM
3:00:00 AM
4:00:00 AM
5:00:00 AM
6:00:00 AM
7:00:00 AM
8:00:00 AM
9:00:00 AM
10:00:00 AM
11:00:00 AM
12:00:00 PM
1:00:00 PM
2:00:00 PM
3:00:00 PM
4:00:00 PM
5:00:00 PM
6:00:00 PM
7:00:00 PM
8:00:00 PM
9:00:00 PM
10:00:00 PM
11:00:00 PM
Load
Peak CA
Summer
T0 Tracker - Mojave
Fixed Tilt CF - Mojave
22
Energy Performance & Capacity Factor
Dept. of Energy
ASU* University of
(DOE)
Cypress / Stuttgart
Independent Sites
7% Higher than CdTe
SunPower Sites
23
Capacity Factor over Time – Impact of Degradation
33.00%
31.00%
29.00%
25%
27.00%
Tracker @ 0.5%
25.00% Degradation
Fixed @ 0.8%
23.00% Degradation
40%
21.00%
19.00%
17.00%
15.00%
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36
24
The PV Power Plant LCOE
Capital Capacity
Cost Factor
Cost of
Capital
Cost of Capital Drivers:
- Risk of energy production
- Risk of energy purchase
LCOE
25
Silicon PV Panels - 25 Years and Counting
C-Si PV Panel After 20 years of Outdoor Exposure
Total Degradation 4%
26
SunPower Bankability: Module Reliability
SunPower v. 3th Party Power vs. Incoming inspection
100% Damp Heat Cycle Tests of 3rd party panel
showing micro cracks
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
SunPower Third Party 25 Yr Warranty
28
The PV Power Plant LCOE
Capital Capacity
Cost Factor
Cost of
Capital
LCOE Model
Sensitivities
LCOE
29
LCOE Sensitivity: $/Wp and Capacity Factor
SPWR Oasis 11% Fixed Tilt SPWR Oasis 11% Fixed Tilt
Sacramento
$0.170 $0.170 $0.130 $0.130
8.5% IRR
Total Life Cycle Cost Panel Cost + BOS Costs + NPV (O&M
LCOE = =
Costs)
NPV Energy Output NPV (kW x kWh/kW)
30
LCOE Sensitivity: Location and Cost of Capital
SPWR Oasis 11% Fixed Tilt SPWR Oasis 11% Fixed Tilt
Sacramento
$0.170 $0.170 $0.130 $0.130
8.5% IRR
Mojave
$0.128 $0.131 $0.097 $0.100
7.5% IRR
Total Life Cycle Cost Panel Cost + BOS Costs + NPV (O&M
LCOE = =
Costs)
NPV Energy Output NPV (kW x kWh/kW)
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SunPower
SunPowerLCOE
LCOEAdvantages
Advantages― 100GWh Plant*
SunPower 11% TF Fixed SunPower delivers
GWh/yr 100 100 the same GWh using
far fewer acres and
MW 37 46
less BOS leading to
Acres 191 351 lower O&M costs
Inverters 74 92
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SunPower
SunPowerLCOE
LCOEAdvantages
Advantages― 100GWh Plant*
SunPower 11% TF Fixed
GWh/yr 100 100
Total $ $200 MM $200 MM
$/Wp DC $4.37 $3.50
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Alamosa 19 MW: Xcel
Alamosa County, CO
34
Amherstburg Solar Farm, 20 MW
Ontario, Canada
35
Montalto 72 MW: Lazio, Italy
Largest Solar Power Plant (GWh)
36
9 MW in Progress
Alange, Spain
37
First Systems in Greece
Crete
38
First T0 Tracker in India
Hyderabad
39
…and we’re putting power plants
on rooftops too…
40
PV Power Plant LCOE Conclusions
41