TECNOLOGIA EN NEGOCIOS INTERNACIONAL

LUISA FERNANDA LURDUY JARAMILLO

CC. 1111760596
2175959

Evidencia 8: Export and/or import

SENA

Buenaventura, 01 octubre 2021

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Evidencia 8: Export and/or import

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Exports and economic growth in Colombia 1994-2010* Exports

and economic growth in Colombia 1994-2010 Willyam

Cáceres Rodríguez**

*
This article is the result of the research carried out by the author with the purpose of
opting for the title of master's degree in Economics, UPTC-UNAL.

summary
This paper examines the role of exports in Colombia's economic growth, framed in the
post- economic opening period, which runs from the mid-nineties of the last century to the
last ten years of this decade. The results obtained indicate the absence of causality between
the different categories of exports that were used (primary and industrial exports) and the
net export product. However, the model also has a positive effect between imports of
capital goods and output, which, together with a positive relationship between output and
manufacturing exports, suggests that export growth has made it possible, indirectly,
through the acquisition of foreign exchange, to finance the purchase of capital goods
necessary for the expansion of output.

Keywords: economic growth, exports, liberalization, manufacturing exports, foreign

exchange, imports.

JEL classification: F43, F10, P45, F29, F31, F10

introduction

Today, no country is totally closed to international trade, as it would not be able to enjoy
the advantages of trade. Aspects related to the differences in the productive structure, in
the price relationship, as well as in the endowment of resources, in the availability of
productive factors, in variations in the levels of technology, motivate the response to a
greater international trade between countries. Long ago, Adam Smith and David Ricardo
made a strong case for trade between nations, which are reflected in higher rates of
growth, employment, and income.
The economic literature indicates that countries more open to international trade tend to
have higher growth rates. The removal of barriers to trade and the implementation of trade
policies that facilitate both the purchase of goods from abroad and the sale of goods has
become a constant in the priorities of different nations. Authors such as Kaldor (1976),
Kalecki (1977) and Thirlwall (2003), among others, point out the importance of exports
and the external sector in the long-term growth of nations.

Endogenous growth models have included trade policy variables in their arguments to
explain the higher rates of economic growth. This is the case with exports, since they not
only allow the acquisition of foreign exchange to finance imports, but also have indirect
effects related to greater productivity in the tradable sector, with greater economies of
scale and specialization, resulting from the expansion of international markets; in addition
to the existence of greater contact with the world economy and with competitiveness
requirements assumed by export activities (positive externalities).

In this context, and given the decline in the dynamics of economic growth, a large number
of Latin American countries, including Colombia, began a process of growth based on
external openness, thus abandoning the protectionist policies prevailing for more than half
a century. The country left behind the import substitution model and turned to one of more
dynamic insertion in international markets.

Despite the general consensus on the benefits of trade in economic growth, the country
continues to present a poorly diversified export structure, largely dependent on the
advantages of natural resources, with low participation in output and halfway through the
issue of internationalization of its economy. Given this situation, the objective of this paper
is focused on verifying compliance with the growth hypothesis based on the increase in
exports Export- led Growth (ELG, for its acronym in English), for Colombia, with
quarterly information, from the mid-nineties of the last century to the first decade of this
century.

The document is divided into four chapters. The first presents the theoretical foundations
that support the role of trade in economic growth; the second chapter reviews the studies
that deal with the role of the external sector (especially exports) in growth, in the national
and international context; the third analyzes the behavior and dynamics of the export
sector and its relationship with Colombian growth; the fourth chapter shows the
econometric results on the relationship between exports and economic growth for
Colombia. Finally, some conclusions are presented.

EXPORTS AND THE ECONOMIC THEORY OF GROWTH

Preliminary aspects

Trade plays an important role in the growth of a nation. Not all countries have the same
endowment of resources, knowledge and skills to produce all the goods and services they
need, so exchange is presented as an effective means to overcome these limitations, making
possible the acquisition and enjoyment of a wide variety of goods and services.

In fact, at present, no country is totally closed to international trade, as it would not be

able to enjoy the advantages of trade.
Aspects related to differences in resource endowment, in the availability of productive
factors, in variations in technology levels, among others, motivate the response to greater
international trade. Adam Smith has long made a strong case for trade between nations.
Today they are known as the "absolute advantages", which were later expanded by David
Ricardo in the so- called "relative advantages", which try to explain the relations of
exchange of goods between countries.

In a perfectly free trading system, each country naturally devotes its capital and labour to
the jobs that are most beneficial to it. This tendency to individual advantage is admirably
related to the universal good of the world. Stimulating industry, rewarding
industriousness and using more effectively the peculiar faculties conferred by Nature,
distributes work more effectively and more economically; and at the same time, by
increasing the general mass of productions, it spreads the general benefit and unites,
through the bonds of interest and exchange, the universal society of the nations of the
whole civilized world. It is this principle that determines that wine is produced in France
and Portugal, that wheat is grown in America and Polynia and that hardware and other
items are manufactured in England. (Ricardo, 1985, p.138-139)

The greater or lesser benefits and profits that a country can obtain from international
trade depend both on the exportable supply and on the external demand for domestic
production that other countries have. Nations that have, for example, a greater endowment
of resources, have the possibility of producing at lower costs. The technological level and
the availability of capital exert great influence on the productive structure, facilitating or
restricting the production of goods with lower relative costs. Advantages can also be
obtained for trade through trade policies designed within countries, in order to make the
local production of goods and services for the external market more competitive.

Exports are part of a country's product, therefore they contribute to its increase, reflected
in a higher income for some sectors of the population, which tend to increase their levels
of consumption and domestic savings and in this way, stimulate production and
employment in specific activities associated not only with the export sector , but to sectors
producing goods for domestic consumption.

The theory of economic growth

In the theory of economic growth, the neoclassical version has been one of the most
widespread and influential, to understand the differences in income and wealth between
the different economies of the world. The initial formulation made by Solow in the late
fifties of the last century, starts from an aggregate production function, the most important
components of which to explain steady-state growth had to do with technical progress and
the workforce.

Solow's growth model (...) has a very strong implication. The long-term rate of stationary
growth of output is determined entirely by the rate of exogenous technical progress plus
the rate of growth of the labor force. In addition, (...) the rate of technical progress is an
exogenous variable that is not connected with savings behavior or economic policies.
(Corbo, 1996, p.55)

However, empirical evidence in several countries in the sixties and seventies questioned
this model, since it was thought that the explanation of growth required variables other
than those related to the mere accumulation of factors.
In such a way that a series of models of endogenous growth that tried to explain the causes
of the growth of a country with variables related to economic policy in its different fields,
for example, public policies, human capital, innovation and the role of trade policy, an
aspect that is the object of study of this work, an aspect that is the subject of this work. ,
especially looking at the role of exports in growth.

In this line, growth models that include variables related to trade policy and its impact on
growth are referenced. Rojas, López and Jiménez (1997) highlight the pioneering works of
Balassa, Krueger, Feder, Bhagwati, Romer and more recently, Grossman and Helpman,
which highlight the expansion of international trade and the policies of openness in favor
of greater growth. Despite the empirical results, in this type of work they are not
conclusive.

A wide range of work suggests that it is not possible to draw general conclusions from the
relationship between trade policies and a country's economic growth, since, depending on
the structure of the model, the origin of growth and the initial endowment and conditions of
the economies under analysis, trade restrictions may or may not reduce economic growth.
(Rojas, López & Jiménez, 1997, p.5)

Exports and growth. Theoretical considerations

The analyses that from economic theory link economic growth with international trade
have been prolific and of a very diverse nature. In this sense, the concern of economic
policy theorists and managers, since long standing, focused on the need to promote greater
and rapid sustained growth of economies, in key aspects such as employment, production,
per capita income, among others.

Adam Smith (1776) was able to observe the limitations of the domestic market as a way to
increase the accumulation of capital. Therefore, it sees in foreign trade the possible
benefits for those nations that practice it. Thus, both imports and exports are mechanisms
that must be used with the aim of increasing the wealth and well-being of the inhabitants of
a nation1.

In contrast to neoclassical growth models2,where thevariables relevant to growth refer to

productive factors, theoretical developments on the demand side assert that economic
growth is driven by demand-side factors. The post-Keynesian and structuralist approaches
assume as a basic assumption that capitalist economies operate with certain levels of idle
productive resources, especially those related to low absorption of labor and
underutilization of installed capacity.

In the economic literature on endogenous growth models, foreign trade and, above all,
manufacturing exports are given an important role, capable of generating increases in
aggregate demand and therefore in GDP (Thirwall, 2003). These theories assume that the
marginal productivity of the factors of production used in external sector-oriented
activities is higher than what could be obtained in the other non-tradable sectors of the
economy.

It was particularly Nicholas Kaldor, one of the first economists to show through empirical
studies for developed countries, how the manufacturing sector has important effects on the
entire economy, insofar as it tends to the growth of other sectors and raises the
productivity of all economic activities.
The emphasis on demand, rather than supply, as an important determinant of economic
growth is evident in Kaldor.

From the point of view of any particular industry center (I use this term on purpose, rather
than "country"), the growth in "external" demand is partly the result of increased "market
penetration" (meaning commercial gains made at the expense of producers in other
industrial centres or small "pre-capitalist" enterprises) and partly reflects the increased
purchasing power of the agricultural sector due to an increase in the agricultural sector.
of the agricultural productivity and the consequent increase of the saleable surplus on the
market. (...) Contrary to the traditional view that attributed England's industrial
development rate to the rate of savings and capital accumulation, and to the rate of
technical progress due to invention and innovation, more recent evidence tends to suggest
that England's industrial growth originated in exports from a very early date. (Kaldor,
1976, p.61)

For his part, Kalecki (1977) attributes to foreign trade, an important role in economic
growth. A country should aim for a positive balance in its trade balance. Therefore, such a
balance is achieved when the difference between the value of exports and the value of
imports is positive for the country concerned. The positive increase in the balance in
foreign trade should be used for productive investment that stimulates the growth of
domestic production3.

Keynesian theories of economic growth, focused on the demand side, give crucial
importance to the components of demand and especially to the role of exports in the
growth process. This idea is widely developed by Thirlwall (2003, p.84-85) in the following
argumentation:

Exports differ from the other components of demand in three important respects. First,
exports are the only true component of autonomous demand in an economic system, in the
sense that demand comes from outside the system. Second, exports are the only
component of demand that can finance import requirements for growth. If there is no
export revenue to finance the imported content of the other components of the expenditure,
then demand will have to be restricted. In this respect, exports are of great significance if
balance-of-payments current account balance is a long-term requirement. The third
important aspect of exports is that imports (facilitated by exports) can be more productive
than domestic resources because certain basic goods necessary for development (such as
capital goods) are not produced domestically. This is the supply-side argument for export-
induced growth.

An interesting variant within the models of growth led by exports, and their protagonism as
generators of virtuous circles, and the role that demand has in the growth of the product
and this in the technical progress, was developed by Anthony Thirlwall, when introducing
the notion that the balance of payments establishes a limit to the rate of expansion of the
product in the long term (Ocegueda , 2003).

For its part, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC,
2004) points to several important theoretical arguments in favour of the role that exports
play in a country's economic growth. Among other reasons, the following stand out: a first
emphasizes that exports allow a country to acquire a certain level of foreign exchange,
which are relevant for economic expansion, since through imports (especially intermediate
inputs and capital goods not produced domestically) it is possible to strengthen economic
activity. This argument is known in the literature as an external constraint, which is
studied in thirlwall's law.
A second aspect talks about the increase in the average productivity of the economy, given
a greater reallocation of resources towards activities and companies with higher
productivity. Exporting companies are potential generators of positive externalities
within the economy, since they must be exposed mostly to international competition and
be continuously innovating in both technology and resources. The third aspect implies the
existence of greater contact with the world economy and with competitiveness
requirements assumed by export activities and their suppliers (positive externalities). This
effect will be greater, the more differentiated the product and the capacity of the
productive apparatus to assimilate the learning of exporting firms.

ANALYSIS OF EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A REVIEW

Review of the analysis on exports and economic growth at the international level

Statistical studies referring to the relationship between trade (exports especially) and
economic growth in Latin America and other countries in the world, are not conclusive in
affirming that such a relationship occurs empirically. Depending on the methodology used,
the results vary. Thus, for example, when studies are taken through panel data, it is evident
that trade and mainly exports are the engine of growth; however, for time series studies for
individual countries the results are less encouraging (Van den Berg, 1996).

Much of the work linking exports to economic growth is mainly based on a typical
production function. The idea is to incorporate exports into the aggregate production
function, since these drive the growth process, increase total factor productivity (Balassa,
1978; Grossman & Helpman, 1991; Feder, 1982; Esfahani, 1991). Exports achieve
greater technology transfer over other sectors of the economy to the extent that they
achieve greater productive efficiency, full utilization of productive capacity, as well as
taking advantage of economies of scale (Helpman & krugman, 1985).

As for empirical analyses, Feder (1982) studied the growth of exports and their
relationship with the growth of the economy. This author uses an export-oriented growth
model. The underlying basic idea talks about the assumptions of externalities between
sectors and productivity differentials; that is, that the exportable sector (exposed to
external competition), generates a series of positive externalities over the other sectors of
the economy, for example, through technological transfer, greater utilization of installed
capacity, more optimal management techniques, etc.

Dixon and Thirlwall (1975) formalize their model in the four quadrants of the Cartesian
axis where they explain the basic variables related to the growth of exports, productivity
and externalities and, the gross domestic product and a relative price relationship, in a so-
called virtuous circle, where the different economic sectors interact.

It is noteworthy that in the case of Chilean empirical evidence, exports do play the role of
growth engine stimulating the expansion of non-exporting domestic sectors. In Chile, the
study concludes, exports fulfill this role in an area of economic openness (García et al,
1996). Agosín (1999) reaches similar conclusions for the Chilean evidence that exports are
the main cause of this nation's economic growth.
In contrast, the study of Tables (2000) for Mexico indicates that there is an absence of
causality between the different categories of exports and the net product for the period
19831997. However, the study also showed a positive relationship between growth in total
imports and capital goods, which positively influenced output. In more recent decades,
given advances in econometric techniques, methodologies for testing the export-led growth
hypothesis have been further refined. Awokuse (2003) applied unit root tests, Johansen
cointegration tests and Granger causality using error correction models and
autoregressive vectors, for quarterly time series data from 1960 to 2000 in Canada.

In a study for India, Sharma and Panagiotidis (2004) re-examine the relationship between
exports and growth, i.e. the ELD scenario for the period 1971-2001. They used feder's
model (1982) as a reference to investigate the relationship between exports and growth.

The analysis on exports and economic growth in Colombia

In the empirical evidence for Colombia, the study by Fernando Mesa (1994) takes up the
feder model (1982), modified by Esfehani (1991) which explains economic growth by the
contribution of productive factors (capital and labor), in addition to intermediate and
domestic imported goods, and the gains obtained by the non-tradable sector to the
exportable sector. Some of the conclusions reached by Mesa refer to the relationship
between the growth in total factor productivity associated with the growth of exports.

The Economic Growth Study Group (GRECO) of the Bank of the Republic observed with a
causal exercise by Granger whether the hypothesis of whether Colombian GDP growth
caused export growth or whether, on the contrary, export growth was the cause of GDP
growth was fulfilled. The study concludes that:

(...) for the whole century, we can reject the hypotheses according to which there was no
causality in any sense, especially if we stick to the results of the tests carried out with the
optimal number of delays; in other words, it follows from these tests that there may have
been causation in both directions. (Bank of the Republic &Greco, 2002, p. 270)

Alonso and Patiño (2007) investigate the validity of the economic growth hypothesis based
on the increase in exports, using a VAR model, which includes departmental GDP,
departmental exports, the real exchange rate and national production as control variables.
They find that the causal relationship is in the opposite direction, that is, from production
to exports, finding no empirical evidence in favor of the export-led growth hypothesis
(Export-led Growth) either at the departmental or national level.

The work of García and Quevedo (2005), who relate long-term economic growth to the
external sector, also stands out. Using a Keynesian, demand-side approach, they test
Thirlwall's law for the Colombian economy in the period 1952-2000. This law establishes
that the rate of growth of the economy depends on the rate of growth of the export sector,
so that if chronic trade deficits occur, it is possible that they may result in imbalances in
the balance of payments, generating in the long term limits on economic growth. The
authors conclude that long-term economic growth was determined especially by the rate of
export growth, the income and price elasticities of import demand, and the real exchange
rate.
EXPORT DYNAMICS AND GROWTH IN COLOMBIA

Exports and gross domestic product growth 1994-2010

Despite the economic reforms adopted by the State since the mid-eighties and implemented
in the early nineties, with the aim of putting the economy on the path of high economic
growth, the performance of the gross domestic product was unsatisfactory.

For the period from 1994 to 2010 (up to the third quarter), average growth was only 3%
(Table 1 and Graph 1). For the course of the nineties, GDP growth stood at 1.9%, which
highlights the deep recession (1998-1999) suffered by the Colombian economy in its recent
history. According to Ocampo (2005), the low growth rates were due to an expansion of
both internal and external indebtedness that resulted in increased public and private
spending. The latter increased dramatically by a figure equivalent to 24.7 points of GDP
between 1 991 and 1 997. The excessive indebtedness of the economy led to increases in
the interest rate and revaluation of the exchange rate.

From 2000 until the second quarter of 2010, the economy grew by 4.1%, a figure barely
comparable to that recorded in the eighties. For Cardenas (2005), the slowdown in
economic growth coincides, in general, with the loss of dynamism of industry and
agriculture, which without disregarding the growth of mining and services, its contribution
has been insufficient to boost the productive apparatus.
For its part, the growth of exports and their role in economic growth has not been as
expected, only a growth of 6.4% for the study period(Table 1).

This dynamic has not responded to the expectations created at the beginning of the process
of economic openness. The share of total exports in GDP for 1994 amounted to 8.9%, a
figure that increased significantly for 2009 by 14.1%(Table 2). In a study by Villar and
Esguerra (2007) it is observed that when calculating the evolution of the export/GDP
index, in constant values, the Colombian economy maintains a lower export activity, in
relative terms, at present, than it did in the thirties and fifties of the last century. This is a
striking result, especially since at that time the protectionist model of trade policy
predominated.

Likewise, these data indicate that the process of internationalization of the economy has
not been sufficient to increase the rate of economic growth. Thus, the index of economic
openness, that is, the sum of exports and imports over GDP, increased by eight percentage
points, going from 21% in 1994 to 28% in 2009(Table 2).

Although Colombia's economy is more open today than in the past, its comparison with
countries in the region is far from the best, as it is barely within the Latin American
average. In this scenario, its contribution to real output growth is insignificant.

(...) the internationalization of the national economy has been timid and insufficient.
Colombia has a level of exports per inhabitant below the regional average (.) and the
share of foreign trade (i.e. the sum of imports and exports) in the national GDP is barely
equal to the regional average and is lower than that recorded by countries such as Chile,
Mexico and Venezuela. (Queen, 2005, p. 154)

Composition and dynamics of Colombian exports

Reina (2005) points out that the exhaustion of the import substitution model towards the
end of the eighties, despite having led to a greater diversification of the productive
structure, also generated concentrated ownership structures, high prices, low quality of
products, few incentives for innovation and high cost of imports that made production
processes using imported raw materials more expensive. , leading to an anti-export bias in
the economy.

Total exports for the study period (1994-2010) showed an average growth of 6.4%(Table 1
and Graph 2),a figure that is below that recorded in the eighties. Two periods stand out
here. The first, between 1994 and 1999, recorded a low growth in exports of 3.7%. Both
traditional and non-traditional exports4 showed moderate growth (Graph3),basically the
result of the revaluation of the exchange rate that particularly affected non-traditional
exports and the fall in the share of traditional products such as oil and coffee.
During the nineties, until June 1998, the revaluation of the exchange rate as a reflection of
the deterioration in the profitability of exporters did not favor the growth of non-
traditional exports, XNT, and in this way one of the expectations created by the reforms of
the economic opening program of the beginning of the decade was truncated. , such as
achieving a higher growth trajectory through higher exports. (Rocha & Sánchez, 2000, p.
123)

For the second period, corresponding to the 2000s, total exports grew on average by 5.5%,
a result higher than that of the economy as a whole. Factors related to a greater
integration process and the signing of trade agreements and trade agreements with Latin
American countries explain this behavior.

(...) Colombian trade policy was aimed at selectively seeking, and not necessarily with a
strategic vision - in the sense of opening broader horizons for long-term growth -
negotiations leading to the deepening of reciprocal trade opening, mainly with countries
and integration zones of the American continent, such as the Andean Community of
Nations (CAN). , the G3 (Group of Three, integration agreement Mexico, Venezuela and
Colombia), Mercosur (Common Market of the South), and more recently, the FTAs with
Central America, and the bilateral agreements with the United States and Chile. (Garcia,
2007, p. 231)

Evolution and composition of traditional exports

Despite the dynamism of the traditional sector, its share of total exports has increased
slightly, from 46% in 1994 to 54% in 2009(Table 2). In other words, its share has
remained at around 50%. This indicates that Colombian exports are little diversified, since
if we include, in addition to traditional products, those belonging to the agricultural
sector, we would have a greater share of primary exports that together represented in
1994, 67% of total exports, compared to 69% in 2009 (Table2). This indicates not only the
great concentration of supply in few products, but also the low value-added content that
they present. García (2007) believes that despite the fact that industrial exports are
growing, in the new context of the economy, under economic openness, the pattern of
specialization of our Colombian exports is still based on comparative advantages in
natural resources, low-cost labor and few doses of technical progress.
The largest share of Colombia's main traditional export products(Graph 4)for the period
1994- 2010 is held by oil and coal exports. Thanks to the discoveries, in the nineties, of
the deposits of Cano Limon and Cusiana, the country significantly increased the volumes
of oil production5,in addition to the uptick in the international price that allowed a fairly
important moment of crude oil exports. For its part, coal exports have been gaining share,
since the late nineties, displacing coffee, the most representative product of the exportable
supply. Coffee in 1994 represented more than 50% of traditional exports, by 2010 it only
participated with 7% of them.

Evolution and composition of non-traditional exports

the study period, have been close to representing 50% of the totals(Graph 5). Even an
important feature observed from 2001 to 2007 is that non-traditional exports achieved a
greater share than traditional exports.

Exports from the agricultural sector, after representing 24% within the lowest in the late
nineties, decreased their contribution to 17% in the last decade. The largest share is held
by the industrial sector with more than 70%, and in third place, the mining sector, with
only 8% on average for the two decades(Table 3).
Breaking down non-traditional exports in order to observe their degree of diversification,
two products stand out in the agricultural sector: i) bananas, a product that has reduced
its share by about five percentage points, from the nineties to the present, going from 9.2%
to 4.4%. In the case of flowers, their participation has been close to 10%, with a tendency
to decrease for the last four-year period of the study period. These two products have been
important in foreign trade, especially since the early eighties.

In the industrial sector, the participation of sectors such as textiles, clothing and leather
stands out, which together contributed to the second half of the nineties with 16.9% of total
non- traditional exports(Graph 6). In these products, the country has had comparative
advantages in the international market. The fact that they are labour-intensive sectors and
given the competition from Asia, their share has fallen to 12.7%.

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN

COLOMBIA

Specifying the Model

As described in chapter two, statistical studies that work on the relationship between trade
(exports especially) and economic growth in Latin America and other countries in the
world, are not conclusive in affirming that such a relationship occurs empirically.
Depending on the methodology used, the results vary; thus, for example, when studies
are taken through panel
data, it is evident that trade and, mainly exports, are the engine of growth; however, for
time series studies for individual countries, the results are less encouraging (Van den Berg,
1996).

Much of the work linking exports to economic growth is mainly based on a typical
production function. The idea is to incorporate exports into the aggregate production
function, since these drive the growth process, increase total factor productivity (Balassa,
1978; Grossman & Helpman, 1991; Feder, 1982; Esfehani, 1991). Exports achieve greater
technology transfer (over other sectors of the economy) insofar as they allow greater
productive efficiency and full utilization of productive capacity; in addition to taking
advantage of economies of scale (Helpman & Krugman, 1985).

In most of the studies that have attempted to validate the export-led growth hypothesis,
the main criticisms made of the specification of the models used for empirical validation
were identified. The most recurrent relate to two aspects. Firstly, because exports
themselves are part of GDP, there is the problem of accounting identity. Secondly, since
most of the studies only limited their analysis to the relationship between exports and
GDP, these were susceptible to the problem of omitted variables, since the relationship
between these could be mediated by other relevant economic variables.

As can be seen in this paper, it is a question of resolving these two criticisms. For the first,
we work with net GDP on exports, that is, exports are eliminated from the product,
because these are accounted for within the identity of national income. For the second, an
aggregate production function is used that includes other macroeconomic variables that
have an impact on growth. In addition, total exports are broken down into primary and
industrial exports.

•Identifique el vocabulario clave y tradúzcalo al español.

Las exportaciones y el

crecimiento. Dinámica de las

exportaciones Aranceles

Puertos

Empleo

Ingreso

Importación

Crecimiento económico, exportaciones, liberalización, exportaciones de manufacturas, cambio

de divisas, importaciones.
•Escriba la idea principal en español y en inglés.

Idea principal

Este trabajo examina el rol de las exportaciones en el crecimiento económico de Colombia,

enmarcado en el periodo post apertura económica, que va desde mediados de la década de los
noventa, del siglo pasado, hasta los últimos diez años de la presente década. Los resultados
obtenidos indican ausencia de causalidad entre las distintas categorías de exportaciones que se
utilizaron (exportaciones primarias e industriales) y el producto neto de exportaciones. Sin
embargo, el modelo también arroja un efecto positivo entre las importaciones de bienes de capital
y el producto, que aunado, igualmente a una relación positiva entre el producto y las
exportaciones manufactureras, permite presumir que el crecimiento de las exportaciones ha
permitido, indirectamente, a través de la adquisición de divisas, financiar la compra de bienes de
capital necesarios para la ampliación del producto.

Main idea
This paper examines the role of exports in the economic growth of Colombia, set in the
post economic liberalization period, which began from mid-nineties of the last century,
until the last ten years of this decade. The obtained results indicate no causality between
the different categories of exports that were used (primary and industrial exports), and net
exports. However, the model also shows a positive effect between imports of capital goods
and the product, whichjoined equally to a positive relationship between the product and
manufacturing exports, permit to presume that the export growth, has led, indirectly
through the acquisition of foreign exchange to finance the purchase of capital goods
needed for expansion of the product.
•Anexe la fotografía del articulo para conocer la revista, libro o sitio web de donde fue tomado dicho articulo.

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