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    © All Rights Reserved
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    18 views32 pages

    Ch2 GEO6

    Uploaded by

    Antía Solíño Bonet

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF or read online from Scribd
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    of 32
    Chapter oO Executive summary Population growth willbe highest in countries that are very poor, have alow carbon footprint per capta and high ‘gender inequity in terms of access to education, work, and ‘sexual and reproductive rights (established), tw also remain importart in counries going trough thet early alate éemogrephi cvidend (mest middle-income ane unper middle Inoome counties), These are also the counves that have presented the highest increases incarbor footprins pr capita ~ and in ecological foatorints more broadly. 2.3.1) ‘The worlds population wll become older, including Inthe ‘global South, more urban and will live in smaller households (oll established) na business as-usualscenato, al these ‘uends wil contribute to higher levels of emissions. This is tue cevenif in some cases, urban mileax show a more efficient Felationship between welfare improvement and environmental footpint.23:3) ‘Between today and 2050, the global urban population will continue to increase (vel established) Around 90 par cert ofthe growth of cts wil take place in low-income countries ‘mainly in Asia and Aiea, whioh are the work's mest ranidhy Urbanizing regions (2.4) ‘Serious social and environmental challenges of urbanization remain unsolved in many urban areas, particularly but not soley inthe global South (ve! estabished). These challenges ‘can be exacerbated by mare change ans roid wtban growth In cegions and oes that curently lk te eapacty ta face these mounting pressures. (241,242) (nthe other hand, urban population growth can represent an ‘opportunity to increase citizens’ wellbeing while decreasing ther ecological footprint esiabshed but incomplete. Urtanzing areas can therefore be seen as an oot for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through ‘the appropiate planing and design of urban fers and infrastructure, 2.4.4} Economic development the past has been a driver of Increased resource use and environmental damage (i) established). The production ointemationally vaded goods ‘0counts for about 30 per cent fal CO, emissions. The household consumption meanwhile of goods and services lover thet ife cycle, accounts fr about 60 per cent ofthe {otal envonmental impact from consumption (UNEP 2010), Economic eveleproent continues tobe the number-one paiey prionty in most countries, because of ts material benefits and Its potentials for poverty eradication, fr narrowing inequalities Inineotre and wealth between and within counties, and for providing winwin scenarios that can feiitate collective action ‘nd global solidarity. At the same time, economic developrnent ‘must coincide wth sustainable consurrption and production, 251,254) ® sting me Stage ‘Achiaving the SDGs will require thatthe fruits of sustainable ‘economic development are predominantly used to increase the capacity, capabilities and opportunites ofthe least- advantaged people in societies (vol esiabshed), Educating irs improving the status and opportunites for women, and ‘enabling poor peoale to achieve fll participation in socesy wil strengtren bath sustainable economic growth and sustainable ‘economic developrrent and “educe alenation and conticis in society. (252,253) ‘Technological advances have resulted In both positive as well as negative impacts (ve! estabished}.Oiland ther fess fuels Fave accelerated econamie development anced the standard o ving fo lions of peoplein both inéustialized ‘anc developing counties, but they have alo contributed taclimate change. At the sare time, there are current and cerrerging technology business madels, which are bulding ‘amore cteular economy, creating less resourcesiensive processes, and accelerating mare elective resource innovation cycles. (261,252) ‘Technological advances have created unintended ‘consequences that make it dfficult to determine whether the advances have long-term positive and/or negative impacts {established but incomplete). Scientific analyses of technology sues often fallto capture the important negative and rebound effects of technologies as well asthe cortex policy anc market challenge of effusng sustainable technologies to developing counties (263,264) Climate change has become an independent driver of ‘environmental change and poses a serious challenge to future economic development we established). Regacless of ‘human action, or even hurnan presence onthe plane, impacts will eontinue to accur Climate change thus poses ‘challenge to growth anc develeament. (2.7.1,2.72) ‘imate change poses risks to human societies through Impacts on food, and water security esiabished ut Incemplee), anc on human secu"ty healt lvetnoods ane Infrastructure. These n'ks are greatest for peoole dependent lon natural resource sectors, such as coastal, agricultural, astral and forest communes; ano those experiencing -mukiple forms of nequalty, marginalization and poverty ‘ate most exposed to the impacts. (27.3) ‘Climate change will amplify existing risks and create new risks for natural and human systems (ve! established) Risks ate unevenly distributes and are generally greater for developing counties (mainly for SIDS) and for disadvantaged people and cemmmunites in countries at all levels of ‘development. Risk of elmaterelates impacts resus for the interaction of clmaterelated hazards with the vuherailty lancexposure of human and natural ystems, nelucing ther resilience and ability to adapt. (27.4) ‘There isan important need to limit the potential negative (rater than negate} transformative response inthe form of sustainability impacts of divers of population, economic cil equty.ervronmrntalretenee andpovery eadeaton development and climate change (estabistied Gut complete). 1s Thely tobe ceterines by uncertain ngrter impacts of Whether hese thee drivers serve as catalyst of posive lovers of uearization and technology (2.8, Figure 223) 2.1 Introduction and context ‘The envrerenental novernent has gone through mary phases. Iria the movernentconsistes broadly ofthe conservation schoo which emahasize nusbanding of bot renewable and nor-renewable resources (especialy forests) for fature Ceveloprrent, and the prese-vaton school, which saw nature 3s invisicaly valuable (Eckersley 1992) addin to these ‘economic and aesthetic concerns, the modem envirormertal rmoverent is ram more about rs, he risk hat ervronmental egrasation poses to hurnan neath and wel-oeing (Carson 1962; Rees 1995; Guna 1999; Lenton et at 2008 Rockstom et 20082, Diamond 2077). creasingly, there are concems that te enormous gain in Ife expectancy and {ual of He since the ingustalrevlution ae in danger of beng reversed (GBD 2015 Marta ang Causes of Death Colaberatos; Hara 2017), ‘The five drivers reviewed in this chapter ~ population growth ‘and cernagraphic, urbanization, ecanarric development, new ‘echnalogcalforees, and climate change ~ have lee to an Unprecedented expansion of wealth or many but have also left many behing and coulé produce trouble forthe ‘lure Fouret rene in inequality continue, the top 01 percent of ‘the population wil on mare wealth than the global micale ‘lass by 2050 (10 2018) 2.1.1 Overview ofthe Drivers ‘As natedin Section 1.5, the analysis conducted inthe ‘GEG Uses the DPSIR framework where DPSIR stands for Drivers Pressure, State (of the envirarment) Impact (onthe feavionmert ane harman welFbeing), ané Response. Divers! are anthropogenic inertia forces ~ social ecenoric ecological technological and poltical. They ae inertial forces, nthe sense ‘hat they have thei oan les of mation and reversing them will equi tre and effort. GEO-S refered to two ervers = ppepultion ad econceni ceveleprent~ to which GEO-S adés ‘hee mare, urbanization (previously covered under population), technology and climate change ‘Three of these civers~ population, eccnomie develope, ‘anctechnology ~ ae ubiquitous in the DPSIR Irerature (Nelson 2005) and represent the disaggregation into three coraponents ‘of agaregate human consumption, end therefore of what is necessary for meeting survival as well as ater welfare needs + Population Other things being equal mere people will ‘mean a propartionaly higher pressure onthe enranment In such a scenario, long-term sustainably is incompatble with growing populations, which the iteratre indicates wil centinue te grow ata global scale throughout tis century. Its imperative inthe present therefore, to atten to how ‘ey population ynaries~ including fer rates, ageing populations, cisplacerent and gence inequaiy~ interact 23 multiple scales and impact environmental sustainability. '& Economic development: This refers to an increase n human welfare, which epends on material consumption and many other factors, inching he environment While ‘economic development has beer high correlated with ‘economic growin he roger ea, the two ae quite ® sting me Stage istinet, empirically as well as conceptually Per capita consumption is expected to continue increasing in the foreseeable {ture (because ofthe unfinished agenda of eradicating poverty, meeting survival neecs an enabling individuals to pursue prospeiy). To decovale growth ‘rors negative enironmentalimpacts, esourceefficien, sustainable pattems of consumption are needed Technology. Technological crange is wel understood as 8 tive of ehange, both negative and postive Negatively, it provides an opportunty to accelerate, withincetives, the harnessing of natural resources for humsn ends; intimes of eis, incentives strongly favour adoption of riskier otions and elimination or minimization of safeguards. Postel tech ological progress aso creates ‘mare efficient options, hich can meet human needs at lower resource costs In this assessment urbanization ang elirate change are ‘addee as independent drivers because of tel Impertance in sociaeconamie change. Urbanization has been going on throughout history, butts pace, ‘scale and impact have accelerated sharply in recent decades. As such, its included indepencenty as fourth driver Likewise, climate change has been aces as a fith ver, even ‘though, n prnpl could be epreserted as an outcome ot the other rivers, Accerdng tothe Fifth Assessment Report (ARS) Untergovernmental Panel on Clnate Change [PCC] 2014), ‘he world 0 the threshold a ertring the era a corms ‘late change, narnely that some pacts of elmate change hhaverow become ieversiole (uch as extinction of species ‘ane loss of bad versity) and regardless of future mitigation or ‘adaptation actions nether werds, even all human acti ete fo cease, the unpacts of chmate change would continue to ‘marfest thernseles over the next few centuries “Taken together, these five drivers are bringing about changes In naturalas well as social systems. These impacts range form resource depletion to biodiversity oss, water scary changes. Inthe hyeroloicaleycle, neath impacts, anc ecasystern

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