Module 3.0. Transportation Engineering Monday, 20September2021.10.09am Travel Demand Forecasting Intended Learning Outcomes: 1. Analyze traffic demand forecasting 2. Familiarize the four step model for transportation demand modelling EXAMPLE 8.1 | SHOPPING-TRIP GENERATION A simple linear regression model is estimated for shopping-trip generation during a shopping-trip peak hour. The model is Number of peak-hour vehicle-based shopping trips per household KY =0.12 + 0,09(household size) ys + 0.01 1(annual household income in thousands of dollars) A J = 0.15(employment in iis household Aborhood, in hundreds) — — ome of Ko.000 They currently w home in a d ‘ular household has six. Bot el apd an wal 2 neishbocheod with 450 teal eh ois but are moving to a + neighborhood withgl30 retail employe fite the predicted number of peak-hour shopping trips the household as before and after the move: el —~— —— Ne o1a40.0% Hs FOONAT -oISE We ¢ BeToRe: AFTER: Me ¢ Soo E= 45 B= 150wo’ DEFOR: AP TEKS Ma: § wom E = 4g B= 150 N>? Berore We? Arie ¥DEPORE THEY MovE Nz 6.12 $ 0,04 (6) 4 © .0(g) ~ Oly (18) % APTER THEY Move Nz gaa + 0-09 (6) +6-01(s0) - 0.8 NS) [wz one]EXAMPLE 8.2 SOCIAL/RECREATIONAL TRIP GENERATION A model for social/recreational trip generation is estimated, with data collected during a major holiday, as Number of peak-hour vehicle-based social/recreational trips per household hf =0.04 + 0.018(household size) +0,00%annual houschold income in thousands of dollars) AT. +0.16(number of nonworking household members) yy If the houschold described in Example 8.1 has one working member, how many peak-hour Socialreereational trips are predicted? jy ent N= 9.04 40.018 Hs $0-009AT 4 0-16 NW He= 6 Nwe 5 NW 3 AL = {sv 000 N= 6.04 £0013 (6) + 0-009(50) + 0.16(5) Nv a aaa Ferny £0016 (3)Nz 0-d4 £ 0.019 (6) + 0.004 (Sb) F 2-016 (3) [N= jogs] ¥EXAMPLE 8.3 TOTAL TRIP GENERATION a ‘A neighborhood has 205 retail employees and 200 households that can be categorized into four t ith each type having charact as follows Household Annual Number ofnonworkers Workers Type size income inthe peak hour departing = 1 2Q) 7 s40,0007 4 17 -2 $50,000 24 @ 7-3 QJ 855,000 iw 27 v4 > $40,000 30 Le There an(oD)ype LGaDype 2, 350 type 3, and $0 type 4 households. Assuming that shopping, Social/reereattonal, and work vehicle-ba Je (for ased trips all peak at the same ) + 0.464 (200) | 0-449 (35) 4 0-452 (0) Tota! Trips = 549.15 Recreational Trips ¥ Working Trips Jota\ Trips = 1 (100) + 1 (ar) + a (8m) +1 (or) Total Trips = \OSDd Working Trips Total = 441+ 542.15 4 loge Total = 2033.15 Trips84.2 Trip Generation with Count Data Models Although linear regression has been a popular method for estimating trip generation models, there is a problem in that the estimated linear regression models can produce fractions of trips for a given time period. As an example, the model presented in Example 8.2 predicted that the household presented in Example 8.1 with one working member would produce 1.398 peak-hour social/recreational trips during the major ns of trips are not realistic, a modeling approach that gives ive-integer number of trips (0, 1, 2, 3, .. .) may be more appropriate [Washington et al. 2011]. One such model is the Poisson regression, which can be formulated for trip generation (for a given trip type) as (8.2) where 7, ~ number ofvhicle-based ps of given ype shopping or scialrereational made in some specTTied time period by houschold i, P(T) = probability of household i making exactly 7; trips (where T; is a nonnegative integer), € = base of the natural logarithm (e = 2.718), and A, = Poisson parameter for household i, which is equal to household i's expected — number of vehicle-based trips in some specified time period, E[Ti]. (8.3) where B Z, = vector of houschold characteristics determining trip generation, and Other terms are as defined previously. vector of estimable coefficients, Note that the Poisson parameter 4 (the expected number of trips of a specific type made by household 7 over some time period) is a real number (with fractions of trips) but when applied in Eq. 8.2 gives the probability of making a specified nonnegative- integer number of trips (7}). In Poisson regressions, the coefficient vector B is estimated by maximum- likelihood procedures. A brief description and example of this estimation procedure are presented in Appendix 8B.EXAMPLE 8.4 SHOPPING-TRIP GENERATION WITH THE POISSON MODEL oe Following Example 8.1, a Poisson regression is estimated for shopping-trip generation during a shopping-trip peak hour. The estimated coefficients are BZ,= -0.35 + 0.03(household size) 4S = + 0.004(annual household income in thousands of dollars) AT —0.10(employment in the household's neighborhood in hundreds) E, s Given thatthe household has sixnembers, has an annual income of $50,000, and ives in their new neighborhood with a retail employment of 150, what is the expected number of ). Peak-hour shopping trips and what is the probability that the household will not make a peak-hour shopping trip? P (re) 6 Tro BL rey hs Mite BZi = -0-35 40 .03HS ¢ O-OTAT - 010K BZ = - 0.35 $.0-63 (6) + 0-004 (se) - 0.10 (1-5) ple -d.1a \. . eo’ i?Po) = O-4ANF