Professional Documents
Culture Documents
le Calls And Tesla Puts | Seeking Alpha 6/1/2021 Michael Burry Rolls His GameStop Profits Into Google Calls And Tesla Puts | Seeking Alpha
MEREDITH CORP MDP $ 4,169 140,000 Common Dr. Burry added a number of interest rate hedges this quarter, all of
NETAPP INC NTAP $ 21,801 300,000 Call
which would profit from a rise long term interest rates. This bet is quite
leveraged, with call options on long-term treasury bear ETFs, and put
options on long-term treasury bull leveraged ETFs. That is obviously a these are large call option positions. I suspect that in many ways he views
macro bet and not a specific security selection bet. While Michael Burry this as a pair with his TSLA trade. If the market remains exuberant, the
has mostly been an individual stock picker for the vast majority of his large tech businesses will probably continue their strong momentum. If
career, I'd argue the mortgage trade that made him famous was in fact the market were to fall, TSLA is probably more exposed on the downside
mostly a macro trade. Obviously, I have no way of knowing for sure what given it has a lower quality business by essentially any metric than
will happen with interest rates, but I did publish a piece on other ways to Alphabet (Google would arguably be the best business on earth) and
benefit from rates rising that I think is relevant. Facebook.
Tesla Scion also took a position in puts on the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF
(IWF). I think it's reasonable to assume this is also a hedge on the big
There was quite a stir when he announced (prior to the publication of his tech positions. The big tech stocks tend to trade in the same direction as
SEC filing) that he had bought Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) put options. The the growth market, but will almost certainly outperform IWF in a market
size of the position is significant, with a notional value of $534 MM at the drawdown.
end of the quarter. However, the position is held with put options, and
there is no obligation to disclose the strike price of those options. If (as Shipping
seems probable) he bought them out-of-the-money, the actual capital at
risk would be only a fraction of the $534 MM notional value. That said,
Tesla options have consistently traded with a high implied volatility, which
makes them relatively expensive. In my opinion, that is probably why he
went public with this position, which he has done rarely - he presumably
believes the firm is worth less than its price when put on the position. But
because options are time bound the length of time it takes for TSLA
shares to reach his target price matters as well.
Alphabet and Facebook
Interestingly, Dr. Burry also took large positions in Alphabet There was also an interesting addition sector-wise, with a number of new
(NASDAQ:GOOG) (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) in the positions in shipping. Michael Burry has often added thematic sets of
options market this quarter. Both are firms he has owned in the past, but positions in the past, such as beaten down retailers early in 2020 and
prior to that, and suburban grocery real estate type firms later in 2020. my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking
Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
This seems like a similar thematic play, with a total of three additions. mentioned in this article.
Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK) and Golden Ocean
(NASDAQ:GOGL) both have dry bulk exposure, while Scorpio Tankers Advertisement
(NYSE:STNG) is a tanker firm. That puts him more on the commodity end
of the shipping business, with exposure to global trade in things like iron
ore and crude oil. So far no exposure to the recently hot container
shipping sector has been reported. This seems like a play for a cyclical 39 Likes 59 Comments
swing to me - tankers were very popular among value investors about a
year ago, but many were burned at that time. That has taken a portion of
the investor base out of the shipping market, potentially making it a good
time for a noted contrarian like Dr. Burry to "dip his toe in the water." Get Access to exclusive premium content, real-time chat and much more
by Safety In Value with:
Conclusion
Dr. Burry has a track record that makes studying his positions
worthwhile. While some investors like to "clone" guru portfolios, I think
independent thinking provides its own value, and I find if I make my own Microcap Review
selections, I'm more likely to know when it makes sense to double down ★★★★★
and when to sell. But I do think there is a great deal of value in looking at
the portfolios of exceptional investors. Especially to see what themes Free Trial
they are investing in. I find trying to understand his thought process has
made me a better investor, which is why I evaluate his positions every
quarter.
This article was written by Comments (59) Newest
Safety In Value
4.9K Followers reverselo Yesterday, 10:32 PM
Author of Microcap Review Comments (1.57K)
Analysis of underfollowed microcaps worldwide, plus arbitrage and net-nets
What happened on his Zillow short?
Disclosure: I am/we are long GOOG. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses
my own opinions I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Reply Like (1)
( )
language police Yesterday, 4:16 PM
Help me out. Comments (1.75K)
The table is end of Q1 positions. Then the author writes Burry took "large Can't know whether or not he'd profit from L-T interest rate rise being
positions" in GOOG and FB "this quarter" but gave no numbers. long TLT puts without knowing which puts we're talking about.
What is a "large position" and doesn't he already have large positions at Reply Like
the end of Q1?
If this is just a teaser advertisement to sell subs then they should pay SA Safety In Value Yesterday, 4:39 PM
Marketplace Contributor Premium
for the advertisement because this is certainly not analysis. Comments (1.23K)
Reply Like
Author's Reply @language police TLT puts will always benefit
Safety In Value Yesterday, 4:41 PM
from a rise in the long term interest rates.
Marketplace Contributor Premium The expiry of the put just controls how soon that rise has to
Comments (1.23K) happen for him to profit.
Author's Reply @TomasViewPoint sorry you didn't like the piece. Reply Like
By "this quarter" I meant Q1, as that is the latest positions he has language police Yesterday, 4:57 PM
had to report to the SEC. So the large positions in GOOG and FB I Comments (1.75K)
was referring to were the positions he took during Q1 (with shown
$ values shown in the table). He didn't have those positions at the @Safety In Value Well, point taken, but not really. There is time
beginning of the year, they were new during the most recently decay as well as possible change in IV. So I stand by my point that
reported quarter. author is not necessarily correct in his statement.
Reply Like Reply Like
TomasViewPoint Yesterday, 5:59 PM Wetzel Investments Yesterday, 2:55 PM
Comments (6.76K) Premium
@Safety In Value Thank you and that's more clear........perhaps just Comments (29)
say Q1 instead of "this quarter" as it will be clear which quarter
you are talking about. Enjoyed the article and you talking through the positions. These are the
Reply Like
types of articles I want to see on SA, not the constant barrage of hit
pieces. Good work!
g p ,
Reply Like (5) bought some OTM puts for the first time. Although the price dropped to
ITM, it was still a losing trade. The market is apparently aware that TSLA is
a house of cards, but just unsure of the timing of the collapse.
Safety In Value Yesterday, 11:42 AM
Marketplace Contributor Premium Reply Like (8)
Comments (1.23K)
Author's Reply @Chris Lau Interesting idea. He's definitely betting Safety In Value Yesterday, 11:48 AM
Marketplace Contributor Premium
on higher rates directly, so that could be another way of Comments (1.23K)
expressing the same idea.
Reply Like (1) Author's Reply @BossHoggg Definitely. Getting the timing right is
probably the hardest part of a successful options trade.
Apple Dan Yesterday, 11:11 PM Personally, I like options better for special situations type investing,
Comments (2.35K) and have used them to great effect in front of corporate events
@Chris Lau
(tenders, etc). Less multi-bagger potential than what Dr Burry is
It's an interesting idea, but aren't there better ways to play rising doing here, for sure.
interest rates than TSLA? And there is a lot of additional noise Reply Like (3)
associated with it (not least of which is Elon).
Reply Like Rey Arbitrageur Yesterday, 1:55 PM
Comments (2.11K)
Rey Arbitrageur Today, 1:09 AM @Safety In Value There's an alternative to $TSLA puts or going
Comments (2.11K) short. Buying the Granite Shares $TSLA 3x short on the LSE
@Apple Dan Doubt it's exclusively an interest rate play. More like a (3STS) has been very, very good to me.
spread bet on rates and the inevitable implosion of all things Musk. Reply Like (1)
Reply Like
Safety In Value Yesterday, 3:31 PM
Marketplace Contributor Premium
BossHoggg Yesterday, 10:21 AM
Comments (1.23K)
Premium
Comments (564)
Author's Reply @Rey Arbitrageur Interesting! I hadn't heard of
Hats off to him buying TSLA puts. The options pros are known to say that security - thanks for sharing!
“puts are for schmutz.” And as you say, the theta is extreme. Meaning he
must think there will be a big drop. Before this was disclosed, I also Reply Like
have INSANE swings. And given their margins now they will haul in
See More Replies the most cash any broker has seen. Then they have tons of devs
and can pivot like Amazon did away from books. I am LONG
SuperPac Yesterday, 9:40 AM crypto. but even the doomsday scenario is bullish for CB. I am fine
Comments (6.53K) with them exiting with 10-20 billion in cash if bitcoin collapses.
TSLA fan-bois will hate this....
Reply Like
They are an emotional bunch... (edited)
Reply Like (2) Safety In Value Yesterday, 5:15 PM
Marketplace Contributor Premium
Comments (1.23K)
DomL Yesterday, 9:08 AM
Comments (1.29K) Author's Reply @DomL That's definitely a possibility. Most
surprised he isn't loading coinbase. if in fact Crypto is a scam and going management team's in dying businesses squander cash trying to
to zero the amount of Fees CB will collect on the way to zero will be like make it work. The ones who successfully pivot are rare. But if they
nothing any broker has ever seen before. are coming out with $10-20 B in cash there would be lots of time
to find something new.
Reply Like (3) Reply Like
Safety In Value Yesterday, 11:50 AM
diroha Yesterday, 8:44 AM
Marketplace Contributor Premium
Comments (3.5K)
Comments (1.23K)
What he does very well is he enters positions where the upside to his
Author's Reply @DomL If crypto goes to zero coinbase probably trades are multiples more than his downside. This is something Paul Tudor
has a zero terminal value though. Tough to make their current total Jones has spent a career perfecting.
valuation on the way down, even though you're definitely correct
that high volatility is good for brokers. Reply Like (6)
Not saying crypto goes to zero, but if it did I think coinbase would Safety In Value Yesterday, 11:45 AM
be a bad choice. Marketplace Contributor Premium
Reply Like (2) Comments (1.23K)
DomL Yesterday, 5:11 PM Author's Reply @diroha Great point. That's very true. Last year he
Comments (1.29K) had a bunch of equity stub dying retailers. He sold out of a few on
@Safety In Value why? it won't be a straight shot to zero you will their way to bankruptcy (eg Tailored Brands) but the multi-bagger
on Gamestop made the entire group a very profitable trade
@obiwan48 Do you have a vendetta against Burry for some bizarre reason? Do
you generally take pleasure in seeing others suffer? Sounds like
Tesla leaped many years ahead in its valuation without a catalyst you need some help buddy.
(eg FSD). 50% increase in volume and 10X+ increase in market Reply Like
cap.
That is never sustainable. H.a.i.r.y Today, 12:29 AM
Comments (67)
Reply Like (8)
@Apple Dan @idaustin I would love to see all $TSLA shorts
suffering equally Nothing personal