Chuong8

C A C QUYET OiNH VA PHAN TICH

VE CHI PHI DAU TU

Cac nha quan ly trong tat ca cac cong ty phat xem xet cac
' r \ \ x
quyet djnh quan trong lien quan den cac luong tien sau nhieu
w r f
nam. Cac quyet dinh do lien quan den nhung ket qua thu duqc
tu cac tai san ma cong ty da dau tu nhu: may moc, phucmg tien
f t t

giao thong, nha cua, dat dai. Cac quyet dinh khac co the lien
r •% r
quan den nhung thay doi quan trong cua qua trinh san xuat hoac
r x t v

vice lap them mot day chuyen san xuat san pham, djch vu mai
f X

va anh hucrng tai cac hoat dong cua cong ty. Cac quyet dinh dau
tu do anh huang lan tai vi the canh tranh cua cong ty.

8.1. Cac quyet djnh dau tir

/ * > \ 1

Cac quyet dinh lien quan tai luong tien vao va luong tien
r f x
ra trong cac nam tiep theo dugc goi la cac quyet djnh dau tu.
Cac quyet djnh nay thuang dugc xem xet dai han va co tac dong
nhieu nam.
/ \

Cac quyet dinh dau tu thudng dugc xem xet cho cac du an
1 ' X t

hoac chuang trinh cu the. Doanh nghiep can xem xet ve tiet
i /

kiem chi phi co the tao ^a dugc tir viec mua mot he thong may
mdi hien co bii dap dugc chi phi mua ban dau va chi phi trong
hoat dong hay khong? Ngay ca cac to chirc phi Igi nhuan cung

107
can phai xcm xct trong quyet dinh dau tir nlur vay. Yi du, eo'iig
ty A phai xcm xct cac van de nlur viec sir dung kem hieu q]ua
cua cac may loc khong klii ma cong ty dang sir dung, xcm xct
den chat luong san pham co phai do van de nay gay ra khong.
Rat kho dinh luong khi no khong dirge tinh vao chi phi ngay ilap
tuc. nhung vice danh gia rat quan trong trong ra quyet dinh dlau
tu co ban.
Hon nua, khi nha quan ly ra cac quyet dinh ve n:ioi
phuang an khac nhau c„.a cac clurong trinh, dir an cu the, to'ng
i r

the cong ty se lien quan den cac hoat dong, cac clurong triinh
hay du an dau tu khac cua cong ty. Chung ta co the nhin nhian
qua trinh thuc hien cua du an tren mot nam khi chuyen doi ccac
/ f \

ket qua cua tat ca cac du an ve nam hien tai. Hinh sau day mc> ta
du an nay bang cac diem tuong trimg cac hoat dong cua du am.
Ifin/i H-8.1. Mot to clurc nlur la m ot sir tup hop cua cac dir an
va cac cltir&ng trinh
Cac du an hoac chuong trinh

1 2 3 4 5 6 Nam

Cac quyet djnh dau tu trong cac dir an dai han thirong tao

108
tin'n: m ot bg phan cua qua trinh xay dun ; ke hoach chien luge.
( ac .Liu Ur Ion tron>i cong nghe san xu.a va vice mua sam cac
tai s;n co ma tri Ion duac thirc hien co the dan toi cac thay doi,
na n g ca o nang suat va tinh canh tranh cita cac cong ty.

8.2. Q u a tr inh duvet dir an dau tu

■» /

Sue manh iau dai cua mot cong t\ co the bj anh hudng rat
f \ \

l>Vn Idi cac quyct dinh dau tu co ban, vi vay nhieu cong ty ldn
cd qi y trinh duyet du an dau tir rat phuc tap, thudng bi bat buoc
th u e hien theo dung quy cach. Cac bieu mau cu the dugc sir
dung va cac yeu cau dugc xem xet vdi nhieu cap do quan ly.
Hau let cac tong cong ty ldn d Viet Nam cd phong ke hoach
d a u tx hoac Ban dau tu cd chirc nang phan tich cac de an dau tu.
■> ^ \

Qua trinh tham djnh va phe duyet mot dir an dau tu gom 6
bueVe
% r

B uoc 1: De xuat d u an
Trong nhieu cong ty ldn, cac du an dugc cac nha quan ly
cua. cong ty de xuat y tudng va chi dao qua trinh xay dung de
an. Sr lira chon dir an can phu hgp vdi kc hoach chien luge phat
■» f

tiien )di cac nha quan ly cong ty va veVi cac dudng loi chi dao,
lien cuan den dir an nao co the dugc chap nhan cho cong ty. Cac
nhat cuan ly vdi su than trpng, sir suy xet cita minh khong chap
•t

thu;ar cac du an mac du co the phu hgp vcri cong ty, bdi vi ho
can.i hay cac du an do co mot sd rui ro cho ho hoac cac don vi
ma ho phu trach.
x \

Buoc 2: Gia djnh va phan tich cat. luong tien cua d u an

Cac luong tien ciia du an phai dugc tinh cho toan bo thdi
giam on tai ciia dir an. Co nhieu cong cu dung de phan tich cac
luditu tien, mot so cong cu trong so dd dugc gidi thieu trong
clnrrcng khac ciia giao trinh nay. Trong thue te, co mot sd nha

109
quan ly lap dir an da co tinh lam cho cac luong tien trong de an
dau tu cua ho tang tinh hap dan. Vice phat hien ra nhung gian
f *

lan do thucrng la kho neu cac nha quan lv do co kien thuc sau
rong ve hoat dong kinh doanh cua ho va thi truong cua ho.
B uac 3: Qua trinh p h e duyet d u an dau lie
Cac muc do tham quyen de duyet cac de an dau tu la khac
nhau giua cac cong ty. Chi phi cua mot du an cang Ion thi nguoi
% \ \ f

co tham quyen phe duyet du an phai co vi tri cang cao. Hau net,
f x > *

cac nha quan ly cap cao moi dugc phep duyet cac de nghi dau tu
* r r

co ban quan trong, nguoi de xuat du an phai ’ban1 cac ke hoach

* 9

de xuat cua ho cho cac nha quan ly trong cong ty. Qua trinh nay
\ *

can co su quan ly N ha nuoc khi trong nhieu cong ty co canh

tranh manh vi gioi han nguon luc. Nguoi quan ly can tap hop sir
i y f

ung ho cho du an cua ho va chuan bj cac ly le de thuyet phuc tai

W ^

sao d u an cua minh lai tot hon cac du an khac. Cac phan tich ve
f \ ^ ^

so lieu tai chinh chi la mot khia canh cua de an dau tu. Can co
cac y kien phan tich, tranh luan cua nguoi co tham quyen de
chumg minh ve su chap thuan cua d u an: thuong duoc thuc hien
tren co so nhung luan c u chien luge, marketing, tai chinh hoac
moi trudng.
B uac 4. Phan tich va lua chon d u an
' • ' *
Theo cac hoat dong xuc tien thuc hien cua nguoi de xuat
d u an, du an se dugc tham dinh va lua chon boi cac nha quan ly
1 ^

co tham quyen cua cong ty.

B ua c 5. Trien khai thuc hien d u an
' f

Cac du an da d u g c phe duyet se dugc trien khai. Cac van

de lien quan la xay d u n g hoac mua sam tai san moi, tuyen cac
nhan vien moi va dao tao cac nhan vien cu.
B u a c 6: Kieni tra, danh gid m uc do hoan thanh d u an

110
kc; hoach han dau va dir tinh cac luon:.; tien. Tien trinh bao cao
dira tren ket qua cita dir an trong ky hoat dong hoac kv tai chinh.
Tat nhien, khong phai tat ca cac dir an dugc phe duyet
th eo cac buac tren. Trong cac cong ty nho, cac buac tien hanh
khac xa voi mau tren. Trong cac cong ty Ion, giam doc cac dan
» * ' 9 s
v] kinh doanh true thuoc co tham quyen ra quyet djnh dau tu c a
biin ma khong can phe duyet cua tong cong ty, vi du quan ly bo
phan san xuat co the chi can sir phe duyet cho du an dau tu cua
r

gi am doc chi nhanh vai gia trj du an hon 15.000 USD.

/ r \

Sau day, chung ta se xem xet chi tiet han van de quan
trong dugc thue hien nhu la mot phan cua qua trinh dau tu.

8.3. Cac cong cu phan tich dy an dau tu'

Cac cong ty co quyet dinh thirc hien hay khong mot du an

X f X

d;au tu nhu the nao? R5 rang cac anh huang ve tai chinh cua du
a n phai dugc xem xet. Do la, cac chi phi cua moi du an phai
durgc so sanh vai cac !gi ich ma cong ty se nhan dugc tu thue
hiien du an. Trong quyet dinh chi dau tu, cac chi phi va Igi ich
* ' ' 1
cl(6 phat sinh trong nhieu nam, chung dirge coi la cac luong tien
X X ' X X

v;ao va luong tien ra theo timg ky. Luong tien ra bao gom cac
cltii phi ban dau cua du an va cac chi phi phat sinh trong qua
/

trinh hoat dong, chi phi nay se phat sinh suot qua trinh thue hien
X X x /

dtu an. Luong tien vao bao gom tiet kiem chi phi va doanh thu
/ • X

tamg them tu ket qua thirc hien dir an va so tien lai tir ban cac tai
sain. Vi du, neu cong ty A dang nghien ciru ve viec mua mot day
« X ' ' 1 * ' '
clhuyen mai. luong tien ra se bao gom so tien mua may ban dau
v;a sir phat sinh cac chi phi khac khi may mai dugc dua vao hoat
d<ong trong suot du an. Luong tien vao tuang img se bao gom:
so tien thu dugc tir ban may cu. chi phi tiet kiem dirge tir khi sir
diing may moi, va gia tri dugc ket chuven lai tir khi ket thuc dir
an mua may mai nay.
Co nhieu cong cu khac nhau de phan tich cac luong tien
do nhu: thai gian hoan von, ty suat Igi tire ke toan, luong tien
f t \ \ r

chiet khau (DCF). Hai cong cu dau khong de cap den gia trj thai
gian cua luong tien. Do dugc gia dinh rang mot dong nhan dirge
trong tucmg lai co gia tri bang mot dong nhan ngay hom nay.
\ \ t r t '
Cong cu luong tien chiet khau do xem xet cu the anh fnrang den
gia tri thoi gian cua luong tien. Cac luong tien lien quan den dir
J f '

an nay dugc gia dinh va tong ket trong cot thu nhat cua bang
8.1. Co khoan tien chenh lech giua luong tien ra va luong tien
vao va luong tien ra cua bo phan phuc vu va cua cong ty la rong,
khong bao gom cac phan tich khi chung khong thich hop voi
, ' ’ * A

quyet dinh dau tu. Bai vi chung se khong thay doi o bat ky
1 / X / '

phucrng an nao. Ban co the thay rang tiet kiem chi phi co xu
huong tai nam nam, de gia dinh vugt ra ngoai thai gian lien
p \ r r t #
quan den nhieu yeu to khong on dinh.
Bang B-8.1. M ay CT - cac luong tien cho hai phitffng an
Dan vi tinh: USD

P/a 1: Mua them P/a 2: Thay may

mot may CT mai CT cu bang may
CT mai
Dau tu ban dau (thai diem 0) (585.000) (676.000)
Chi phi mua may (74.715) 0
Phi lap dat 0
Thu tir ban may cu 150.000
* 1

Dau tu rong (thai diem 0) (659.715) (526.000)

\ *

Luong tien tir nam 1-5 (107.000) 63.000

112
 ;i * Ii
lan ^ 'tiet kiem chi phi hoat 90.000 0 1
don: 1

I)Oc:nh thu t a n g t h e m d o ta n g 200.000 i

80.000
kha n jn g hoat dong

T i e ’ k ie m d o g i a m thai gian i 0 (15.000)

c h o c u a b e n h n h a n noi tru

P h i d a o ta o n h a n v i e n sir d u n g 1 8 3 .0 0 0 12 8 .0 0 0 (nam tlu'r

m a y m o i ( n a m thir 1) 1), 143.000 (nam
thir 2-5)

T ie t k ie m chi p h i h a n g n a m

Gia mua may dugc gia dinh la 585.000 do la va chi phi

f X

lap dat la 74715 do la. Vi vay chi phi ban dau dugc gia dinh la
659.715 do la. Chi phi them cho thay the cac bo phan, chi phi
dich vu va hoa chat se la S107.000/moi nam. Co hoi tang them
doanh thu do tang them kha nang lam viec cua bo phan phuc vu
dugc gia dinh la 90.000 do la moi nam. Tiet kiem do giam thai
gian cho cua khach hang la 200.000 do la mot nam

8.4. Cac phan tich su- dung luong tien chiet khau
i \ \ f r >

Be su dung nguyen ly luong tien chiet khau de phan tich

f \ t \

quyet dinh dau tu co ban cua cong ty A, truoc het chung ta can
■> % ^ ^
hieu khai niem co ban ve gid tri (hai gian cua luong den. Ban
muon nhan 100 trieu dong trao ngay ngay hom nay hay 100
x \ * r *

trieu dong vao ngay nay nam sau. Hau het tat ca chung ta muon
nhan tien ngay hom nay. Hai ly do giai thich sir lira chgn nay.
f f y

Ly do thu nhat, neu chung ta nhan dugc tien hom nay, chung ta
sc sir dung no ngay thay vi phai dgi den nam sau. Ly do thu hai,
\ X 9

chung ta se dau tu 100 trieu dong nhan dugc voi lai suat 7%, khi
t \

do euoi nam chung ta se co 107 trieu dong. Vi vay gia tri thoi

113
gian di cimg vdi tien to. Do do 100 trieu dung chung ta cc nga\
horn nay se khong ngang bang vai 100 trieu dong sau mo: nam ,
hai nam, hay nnrcri nam.
Khi phan tich luong tien kco dai trong nhieu nam. phan
tich chi dung khi dua tat ca gia tri tien trong cac nam vc cung
> \

mot thai diem. P huang phap phu hop de sir dung la luong tien
chiet k h a u , cong cu nay se tinh toan gia tri theo thai gian cua
^ > \ r r \ \

luong tien. Chung ta can chiet khau luong tien trong ttrang lai
1 x *

de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri hien tai.

Co hai nguyen ly dugc sir dung rong rai trong phan tich
f r \ \

chiet khau cac luong tien: nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong va ty
f f

suat hoan von noi tai. Moi nguyen ly do se d u ac sir dung de

phan tich cac luong tien lien quan den quyet dinh mua may cua
cong ty A.

8.4.1. Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong

Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong xac dinh gia tri hien tai cua
^ ^ *
cac luong tien trong tucmg lai cua mot du an de lam can cir
/ \

phan tich. Phan tich gia tri hien tai rong cita mot ke hoach dau
tu gom 4 buac:
* \ \

B u a c 1: Lap bang the hien cac luong tien moi nam cua du
%

an dau tu.
B u a c 2: Tinh toan gia tri hien tai rong cua moi luong tien,
sir dung lai suat chiet khau la ty le sinh lai nho nhat dugc chap
nhan de dau tu cua cong ty. No thirang dung de do lu a n g chi
t

phi von cua cong ty.

*

B u a c 3: Tinh gia tri hien tai rong (NPV), la tong gia tri
hien tai rong cua cac luong tien trong tirng giai doan thai gian.

114
 Hia/c 4: Neu NPV duong (NPV > 0). co nghTa dir an kha
thi dira tren phuang dien tai chinh. NPV cang cao, du an cang
kha thi han va duac lira chon. Tuy nhien can luu y rang thong
tin tai chinh chi la mot khfa canh do dira vao do ra quyet dinh.
Chien lirac hay cac cong cu dinh lirang khac co the du kha nang
va co trong luong trong cac quyet dinh quan ly
8.4.1.1. Xcic dinh N P V cua cac luong tien trong d u an
m ua them mot m ay m ai (M).
y y

Luong tien lien quan tai du an mua them may M (phuang

an 1) d u ac ghi trong bang 8.1. Trong bang 8.2, cac luong tien
ciugc trinh bay theo cach de lam rd thcri gian thue hien cua moi
' > x i

luong tien. Dau tu ban dau mua may M duac coi tai thai diem
goc bang 0. Moi luong tien cua moi nam tir nam thu 1 den nam
thir 5 d u ac chiet khau ve thai diem 0, su dung N PV de chiet
khau moi luong tien vai lai suat chiet khau la 10%/nam. Cach
de nhat de tim gia tri hien tai rong cho moi luong tien la su dung
cac bang gia tri hien tai.
*

8.4.1.2. Quyet dinh dua tren gid tri hien tai rong (NPV)
f

Phan tich gia tri hien tai rong cho thay mua them mot may
M (so tien 659.715 USD) se thu duac tiet kiem chi phi doanh
thu tang them (gia tri hien tai la 693.570 USD) tuc la se cao han
chi phi ban dau. Gia tri hien tai cua luong tien vao se cao han
• 9 • ' %

gia tri hien tai luong tien ra la 35.855 do la. Vi vay theo phan
tich NPV phuang an 1 la kha thi.

8.4.2. Nguyen ly ty suat hoan vdn noi bo

Mot nguyen ly khac cung dung de chiet khau cac luong

• i. ' ' >

tien trong phan tich du an dau tu la nguyen ly ty suat hoan von

noi bo. Ty s u a t h o a n v o n n o i b o duac dir an thu lai qua cac

115
hoat dong kinh doanh trong suot dai dir an. Mot phirong an Khac
dung de chiet khau la ty suat noi hoan la t\ le chiet khau td do
eia tri hien taimorm muon thu lai luomz tien vao imane
V -' . * • V. V - ». ^
bam: vai
v.

gia tri hien tai cua luong tien. vi vay 1RR la lai chiet khai: ma
vai lai suat do thi N PV cua luong tien bang 0.
Hang B-S.2. Nguyen ly gia tri hien tai rong: Phuang (in 1
Don vi: USD
Tong gia tri Gia tri hien tai Cac luong tien moi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5

Dau tu ban dau (659.715) 1,000 (651.000)

166.347 0,909 183.000

Tiet kiem chi 151.158 0,826 183.000

phi hang nam 137.433 0,751 183.000

124.989 0,683 183.000

113.643 0,621 183.000

T6ng ti5t kiem chi phi: 693.570 USD

Gia trj hien tai rong: 33.855 USD
Ty suat hoan von noi bo cua dir an mua may M (phuang
an 1) la bao nhieu? Trong phan truac du an danh gia theo NPV
la kha thi, vai lai suat chiet khau la 10%. Vay IRR se cao hern
hay thap han lai suat chiet khau (i = 10%). Lai suat chiei khau
duac sir dung trong tinh NPV cang cao thi gia tri hien tai cua tat
ca cac luong tien trong tuang lai cang thap. Bai vi lai suat chiCrn
liroc cao nghTa la m o n g muon thu duac hoi von nhanh. Vi vay
t f -
trong vi du lai suat chien luac cao han 10% se lam cho gia tri

116
hi<;n tai rung dan tai ().
S.-/ 2 . 1. Xac dinh IRR
IRR co the duac tinh theo cong time sau:
n
P = I C t / ( 1 + r )"
t=l
P: Chi phi ban dau
Ct: Gia tri luong tien rong duac tao ra hai du an trong giai
doan t
n: So nam cua du an
r: IRR
Tat nhien co the tim IRR de ban bang each su dung may
tinh tai chinh va cac phuang trinh phan mem nhu excel. Ngoai
ra chung ta sir dung nguyen ly thir va loai trir. Bang cac thu
nhieu Iai chiet khau vao cong thirc tren, co the xac djnh IRR
chinh xac cho du an. Dav la lai suat ma tai do NPV = 0. Tuv
nhien nguyen ly nay tuang doi kho neu luong tien trong moi
f 9 9

giai doan la khac nhau. Bang 8.3 cho thay lai chiet khau la 12%,
NPV = 0.
Vi vay IRR cua du- an mua may M (phircmg an 1) la
12%

117
 Being B-8.3. Nguyen ly ty su noi hoan: ph u an g an I

D an vi tinh: USD

Tong gia tri Gia tri hien tai Cac luong tien raoi nam

hien tai cua SI vai 10% 0 1 2 3 4 5

\ \

Dau tu ban dau (659.715) 1,000 (651.000)

r— 163.419 0,893 183.000

Tiet kiem chi 145.851 0,797 183.000

phi hang nam 130.296 0,712 183.000

116.388 0,636 183.000

— 103.761 0,56 183.000

* T6ng tiet kiem chi phi: 659.715 USD

Gia tri hien tai rong: 0 USD
8.4.2.2. Cac quyet dinh dua tren IRR
Bay gia chung ta tinh d u ac IRR la 12%. Cong ty A su
i f f

dung thong tin nay de ra quyet dinh nhu the nao?

Mot de an dau tu duac chap thuan ve phuang dicn tai
chinh neu IRR Ion han lai suat chiet khau 10%. Vi vay, theo
r r \ > i t f
phan tich chiet khau luong tien thi co the chap nhan phuang an
mua mot may M mai.
/ ' f f

Ket luan: van dung nguyen ly IRR khi chiet khau luong
*

tien theo cac b uac sau:

• Lap mot bang ve cac luong tien moi nam cua ke hoach
dau tu. Cac luong tien do giong cac luong tien dung de tinh

118
NPV (cot 1).
• Tinh IRR cho du an dau tu. Sir dung may tinh tai chinh
hoac chuong trinh phan mem. Co trudng he rp dung phuong
phap thu va loai tru de tim lai suat chiet khau tai do NPV = 0.
• Neu IRR lan han lai suat chien luge thi du an kha thi
ve phuang dien tai chinh.

8.4.3. S o sanlt hai cong cu N P V va IR R

Trong truong hop nay NPV va IRR deu ung ho phuong an

mua may M moi. Khi xem xet viec chap thuan hay loai bo mot
X

du an, nguyen ly thuong hoac ca hai cong cu deu ung ho hoac

x /

ca hai cong cu cung khong ung ho de xuat du an.

8.4 .3 .1. Cac iru diem cua viec ap dung phucmg p h d p N P V
Nguyen ly NPV co nhieu uu diem han nguyen ly IRU.
f \ X

Mot la, neu tinh toan trong phan tich du an dau tu bang phuang
phap thu cong, each tinh NPV la de han tinh IRR. Uu diem nay
khong con quan trong khi sir dung may vi tinh hoac may tinh tai
chinh de tinh toan.
l/u diem thu hai cua nguyen ly NPV la su phan tich co the
x / f f \ \ \

dieu chinh rui ro. Doi voi mot so ke hoach dau tu, cac luong tien
thue hien trong tuang lai cang xa, tinh on djnh cua cac phan tich
x A X X X X

ve do lan ciia luong tien se cang it han. Vi vay, cac luong tien
X / f 1

cua d u an keo dai, nhieu yeu to rui ro co the xay ra. Phan tich
NPV eo the su dung lai suat chiet khau cao hon khi tinh NPV
*

cua d u an co dai dir an dai han. Khong the dir phong rui ro
trong each tinh IRR bcri vi khi phan tich chi tinh lai suat chiet
f

khau trung binh, IRR ciia du an.

l / u diem thir ba, NPV luon chi nhan dugc mot ket qua.

119
Khi luong tien thay doi tir duang sang am ngoai doi du an, co
nhieu IRR dugc tinh cho mot dir an. Dieu nay co the xay ra. neu
co luong tien am trong nam thu 3. nam thu 4. 5 la duong v.'t am
trong nam thu 6.
\

8.4.3.2. Gia dinh tai dau tic

0 * r

Uu diem cuoi cung cua NPV so vai IRR lien quan toi gia
dinh tai dau tu ngam dinh trong nguyen ly IRR. Trong nguyen
ly IRR, cac luong tien co kha nang dicn ra suot du an dugc gia
dinh dugc tai dau tu vai lai suat bang lai suat IRR cua dir an.
\ -I r r

Dieu gia djnh nay co the khong thuc te neu IRR cua du an cao
f r f r

han lai suat chiet khau. NPV lam gia dinh nay tra thanh thuc te
\ \ % t g f /

khi cac luong tien d u a c tai dau tu vai lai suat chict khau.
N hu ac diem cua IRR so vai NPV lien quan tai su sap xep
cua du an. Sir dung IRR co the dan tai cac quyet dinh kem chinh
r \

xac han so vai sir dung cong cu NPV. Cac van de nay dugc thao
luan trong phan cuoi cua chuang. Noi chung cong cu NPV
thuang dugc sir dung nhieu han cong cu IRR khi danh gia du an
\

dau tu.

8.4.4. Cac phan tich chiet khau luong tien theo cac gia
dinh

Giong nhu bat cir mot mo hinh quyet dinh nao, nguyen ly
chict khau luong tien dua trcn cac gia djnh. Ngoai gia dinh tai
\ / r ' \

dau tu dugc trinh bay a trcn, nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien
dua trcn hai gia djnh quan trong:
• Thai diem kct thuc cua luong tien: Trong tinh toan gia
tri hien tai dugc sir dung trong nguyen ly NPV va IRR, tat ca
luong tien dugc coi la tinh vao cuoi nam. Tuy nhien, neu cong
ty A mua may M so tien tien 183.000 do la thu dugc moi nam

120
do tiet kiem chi phi va doanh tim lane them se dirge thue hien a
cac thoi diem khac nhau trout.: nu;i nam. Khi .sir dune may dien
toan yeu cau phan anh chinh xac thoi gian eua moi luong tien se
lam rac roi hon cho pluin tich dau tu. Han che khi sir dung quy
irac thai gian linh moi luon" tien vao cuoi nam noi chung la
khong anh h u an g Ion tiri sir phan tich dau tu.
• Sir on dinh cua luong tien: Chiet khau luong tien phan
tich xem cac luong tien co thich hgp voi du dau tu hay khong
khi chiing dugc coi la on djnh. Mae du trong cac phuang phap
phan tich dau tu neu cac yeu to khong on dinh da dugc phat
trien, chiing khong dugc sir dung rong trong thue te. Nhu dugc
de cap a tren, su dieu chinh do rui ro dugc thue hien trong phan
tich NPV de tinh cac kha nang hien doi khong on dinh ciia
luong tien.
Trong thue te, cac gia dinh do hiem khi dugc dap ung.
Tuy nhien, mo hinh chiet khau cac luong tien tao ra nguyen ly
sir dung rong rai va hieu qua trong phan tich dau tu.
8.4.4.1. Xac dinh ty le chiet khdu (Discount Rate)
/ / % ' r r \ \

Ty le chiet khau sir dung de chiet khau luong tien trong

phan tich NPV, hay lai suat hoan von trong nguyen ly IRR, no
f 0

thuang dugc dura tren chi phi von trung binh. Chi phi von la
khoan tien can bu dap so von da dau tu cho mot du an. Mot du
an moi tang them gia tri von cho cac co dong bang cach tao
luong tien lan han chi phi nguon von da sir dung trong du an
dau lu.
Chi phi von dugc tinh toan dira tren chi phi ciia tat ca cac
loai von cua mot cong ty. Cac cong ty tao nguon von nhu the
nao? Chinh phii va cac don vi kinh doanh ciia Nha nuac thuang

121
vay von bam; each phat hanh lrai phieu hoac vav cac to chirc tai
chinh. Cac cony ty lien doanh lao cac nguon von bang cacti phat
hanh co phieu. hoac vay muon. Vi vay. chi phi \ on so la chi phi
trung binh cua cac nguon von do.
Danh gia d u an, lai suat chict khau dira trcn chi phi \'6n
trung binh, do do no dugc dieu chinh cac rui ro cho phu hgp vai
tung dir an cu the.
Vai lai suat 10% dung de chiet khau cac luong tien moi
nam trong du an mua may M. Muc lai nay dugc tinh bdi vi no la
chi phi von trung binh cua cong ty tra cho nguon von vay.
r f t

8.4.5. Cac quyet dinh cua chi p h i thap nhat

* » ^

Trong mot so truang hgp chi phi dau tu c a ban co the

dugc phe duyet bai nha quan ly tham chi du an N PV < 0 hoac
IRR nho han lai suat chiet khau. Vi du, cong ty dau tu he thong
may tinh de cung cap cac loai dich vu cho khach hang va cung
cap cac thong tin cho nguai quan ly. Tuy nhien, rat kho trong
dinh lugng luong tien vao tang them, tuc la cac khoan nhan
f \

dugc va cac lap luan chii yeu ve cac khoan nhan dugc. Chiing ta
se hoan thanh viec phan tich chiet khau cac luong tien nhung
muc tieu se dugc lua chon phuang an co chi phi thap. Day la
/ p 9 r \

quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat: han la toi da hoa N PV cua luong
tien vao trir di luong tien ra, muc tieu la toi thicu NPV cua chi
phi phat sinh.
f r f *

Vi du khac ma quyet dinh chi phi thap nhat co the dugc

thuc hien la: mua thiet bi an toan, chi phi cho cac thiet bi dc dap
ung cac yeu cau ve chat lugng moi truang. nlur la die u klnen
khong khi hay sir dung chat thai.

122
 (V.4 . 6). Khau hao tai sa u

Khi tai san dai han dirge mua. chi phi thu hoi ciia tai san
do duac tinh nizirac vai loi nhuan tronu nhieu uiai doan banu
khau hao. Tuy nhien, chung ta khong cong chi phi khau hao vao
trong phan tich luong tien. Ca NPV va IRR tap trung chu yeu
tren cac luong tien, va chi phi khau hao dinh ky khong phai la
X X /

luong tien. Gia sir cong ty A khau hao tai san sir dung phuong
phap khau hao duong thang, va thoi gian sir dung may M la 5
/

nam. Neu cong ty mua them mot may vdi gia la 659.715 do la
thi ty le hao mon se nhu sau:
Chi phi ban dau: S659.715
M uc khdu hao hang nam theo phuang phap duong thang (D)
D = S I 31943 D = S 131943 D = S 131943 D = S 131943 D = $131943

Thai
gian

Nam 1 Nam 2 Nam 3 Nam 4 Nam 5

Chi phi ban dau, Chi phi khau hao khong phai la cac
ludng tien la mot luong tien ra.
\ x % \

Tuy nhien chi co luong tien 659.715 do la la luong tien

dien ra de thu hoi cho may mai. Khoan tien 131.943 do la la so
tien khau hao hang nam khong phai la luong tien. Vi vay, chiing
ta ghi chi phi thu hoi duac la mot luong tien trong phan tich dau
tu, nlurnu chiinu ta khonu ehi mire khau hao hany nam, chiina
khong phu lujp trong phan tich chiet khau luong tien.

123
 H.4J). 1 Khau hao irony, cac cony, ty phai )i(p thuC
Gia su quyet dinh dau Ur c r ban da tinrc hien, con;’. ty,
mot to cln'rc trong kinh doanh co tnich nhiem phai nop thuc thu
nhap. Vi du, Cong ty C co the xcm xct mua mot lie thong may
tinh. Dieu nay se thay doi sir giai quyet cua chung ta ve khau
hao hang nam trong phan tich luong tien - khau hao van khong
phai la luong tien. Tuv nhicn, khau hao gan vai sir khau trir
thue. Thanh toan thue la cac luong tien, va giam thuc do khau
hao dugc tinh trong phan tich cac luong tien. Chucmg tiep theo
t \ *

se xcm xct anh huang cua thue ve khau hao tai san trong phan
tich chi phi dau tu.
•x

8.4.7. So sa n h h a ip h iro ’ng an dau tu

Chung ta thay co hai giai phap de giai quyet van de cua

cong ty. Phuang an 1 la mua mot may M mai. Cac tranh luan
ung ho manh me phuang an nav, va no cung dugc ung ho bai
f r \ \

phan tich chiet khau luong tien, thu dugc NPV duang va IRR la
12%, cao hem lai suat chict khau la 10%. Phuang an hai la thay
the may M cu bang may M mai.
Cac luong tien lien quan tai ca hai phuang an ducrc mo ta
trong bang 8.2. Chung ta xcm xct su so sanh giCra hai phucmg an
^ / r \ *

bang cach sir dung cong cu chiet khau luong tien. Bang 8.4 dua
ra gia tri hien tai rong cua hai phuang an. Gia tri hien tai rong
cua phuang an mua them mot may M mai dugc so sanh vcri gia
tri hien tai rong cua phuang an thay the may M. Trong khi
NPV cua ca hai phu an g an deu lan han 0; NPV cua p h u a n g an
1 cao han cua ph uang an 2 la 31.520 do la.

124
 f u n r.; !l-n.4. Phan tich i’id tri hien ta i r u n :/ cua die an m ay M
Dan vi tinh: USD
1
j P h u o n g an 1 j 0 j 1 3
! i i
[Chi phi m u a Jf 5x5000) j I
1 J I
j Phi lap dat i (74715,
1 j .
jT iet k ie n i chi phi ! 1 107000 | 0/I H> j 107000 107000 107000
! i
i D o a n h th u ta n u*- 9000 7.Hj( 1 ; 9000 9000 9000

T ie t k i e m d o g ia m thoi 200000 200000 20O00U | 200000 200000 200000

j I
jgian d o i c u a k h a c h h a n g

T o n i ’ c o n g lu o n g tien (959715) I S3000 j 1S3o( uj | 183000 183000 183000

!
T h u a so c h ie t k h au xl x 0,907 j x 0.826 ii x 0.751 x 0,683 x 0,621
1
G i a trj h ien tai cua (659715) 166347 | 15115S 1 137433 124989 113643
1
l u o n g tien 1
1
NPV 33S55
1
P h u o n g an 2 0 A* > [ 4 5 6
iP
G ia m ua m ay (676000)

So tien ban m a v cu 150000 1

| .
T ie t k ie m chi phi 63000 63000 j 63000 , 63000 63000
1 I
T i e t k ie m d o g i a m thai 80000 80000 80000 80000 80000
gian d a i c u a k h a c h h a n g 1
j!
Phi d a o tao (15000)
i
X \
T6nj> lu o n g tien (526000) 128000 1430000 143000 143000 143000

Thua so c hiet khau 1 0.909 0,826 0,751 0,683 0,621

i i
@ 10% i
1________j
G i a tri h ien tai cua (526000) 1 16.325 ii 1I S ! 1s | 107393 97669 88803
11
l u o n ” tien 1
v> 1 . i
NPV 2335

125
 Chcnh lech gia tri hien tai rong cua pluron g an I va
phuang an 2 la: 31.520 do la.
8.4.7.1. IRR cua hai dir an
Chung ta da tinh IRR cua phuang an 1 la 12%. NPV cua
phuang an 2 la 2335 USD thap han NPV cua p h u a n g .in 1,
chung ta du tinh la IRR xap xi 10%. IRR chinh xac duac tinh
bang phuang an thir va loai trir hoac bang bang tai chinh. IRR
cua phuang an 2 la 10.18%. So ngay duac kiem tra bang ciich
thay IRR vao NPV va tai mire lai suat do NPV = 0.
8.4.7.2. So sanh cac phan tich cua hai dir an m u a may M
Chung ta co thong tin tai chinh can cho bao cao cua chit
/ t \ \

du an. Phan tich chiet khau luong tien ling ho p h u a n g an mua

them may M trong khi phuang an thay the m ay cu bang may
x r r r

mai co IRR gan vai lai suat chiet khau:

Phuang an 1 Phuang an 2
NPV (10%) S33855 S2335
IRR 12% 10,18%
Trong truang h a p nay ca phan tich N PV va IRR deu co
chung mot ket qua la p hu an g an 1 kha thi han p h u a n g an 2.
Doi vai tSt ca cac du an, ket qua phan tich N P V va IRR
/ /

luon cung dua ra m ot ket luan. Neu phan tich N P V v a phan tich
IRR khong cung mot ket luan thi du an nao co N P V cao nhat se
\ t > *

duac chon. Do gia dinh la cac luong tien co the tai d a u tu, cong
r

cu NPV luon dua ra ket luan dung han.

Chung ta thay ro chii du an tai cong ty dua ra cac tranh
luan co sire thuyet phuc cao hem doi vai yeu cau m u a mot may
M mai han yeu cau thay the may cu. Ket qua phan tich tai chinh

126
ciini! mg ho phuang an I .
.)icu gi xay ra neu phuang an 2 o \ i’V cao han phuang
an 1 >eu phuang an i co NPV am? Bam: a, h chirng minh cac
iru ciiini Ion ve vice mua them mot ma\ M cac y kien tranh
luan co trong luang co the hieu qua hern cac ket qua tai chinh.
Olni du an ket luan rang phuang an lot nhat la mua mot
tin'lli not may M mai. Bao cao hoan chinh cua ba ta duac giri
leu b a i giam doc cua cong ty cho phep ho xcm xet cac y kien
cua ibata va may mai duac dau tu nlur the nao. Trong bao cao,
t \

chu di an xem xct ca van de tai chinh va thong tin quan trong
/ /

khi x e n cac y kien cua ba ta. Day la phuang phap ra quyet djnh
dau Hudien ra trong cac to chirc kinh doanh. Trong khi mot phan
tich vi khia canh tai chinh cua du anchinh xac lahuu ich cho
r / \

vice qiyet djnh, ke hoach phai duqc ling ho manh me tu nhieu

X / % t

phut7n’ dien khac gom cac van de lienquan den canh tranh va
r

c h ic m kxorc.
f

1.5. Cac cong cu khac dung de phan tich cac ke hoach

dau te

ling dung cua cac nguyen ly chict khau luong tien la

chunig inhtoan dugc cac gia tri thai gian cua tien.
'uy nhien, nha quan ly doi khi sir dung cac cong cu khac
de plhai tich cac luong tien cua mot du an dau tu. Cac cong cu
khac k: thai gian hoan von va ty le sinh lai ke toan. Doi khi cac
\ t t

cong cu do duac su dung dong thai vai phan tich chiet khau
luonjg ien doi khi no duac sir dung doe lap. Co nhieu ly do doi
vai rrnct cong ty de lua chon cac cong cu khac. Hay xem xet cac
* * t »

luoiv.g ien lien quan vai hai ke hoach dau urcho bophan dich
vu ciuacong ty A.

127
 o.5./. A g u y c n ly thd'i gian oan von

Thai gian hoan von cua ii' t dir an dau tir la so nam r.ia lai
do cac luong tien cua dir an dirge luy kc den mot khoan r.ia bu
dap dirge chi phi dau tir ban dau. Cong thirc tinh thai gian hoan
von:
i Von dau tir ban dau
I hai uian hoan von = —— i------rr------- t :— :—
Luong tien moi nam
Trong cong thue thoi gian hoan von khong de cap den gia
\ % ' % t /

tri thai gian cua tien. Cac luong tien tu nam thu nhat den nam
f % *

thir nam giong nhau ve gia tri. Day chinh la mot han che.
Tinh thai gian hoan von cua du an mua them mot may M
mai nhau sau:
x 659715 .
Thai gian hoan von = - — = 3,61 nam.

Vi vay thai gian hoan von trong phuang an 1 la 4 nam.

8.5. J. 1. N guyen ly thai gian hoan von vai cac luong tien
khong on dinh
Cong thue thai gian hoan von dan gian khong dung neu
* * > \ x

du an co luong tien khong deu. Thay vi cac luong tien phai dugc
\ f f \ * %

cong don hang nam den khi luy ke can bang vai von dau tu ban
\ f ' %

dau. Thai gian hoan von cho phuang an 2 co cac luong tien
khong deu d ugc tinh nhu trong bang 8.5
 / * ^

Bring B-H. 5 Thai gian hoan von cua cac luong tien
\

khong dcu nhan: p h u o n g an 2

1
! ....
Cac luong tien luy ke vao
Nam Cac luong tien (do la)
| cuoi nam (do la)
0 (526.000) (526.000)
" “ T l 128.000 ^ (398.000)
- ...........1I
2 143.000 (255.000)
3 143.000 (112.000)
,[
4 143.000 31.000
5 143.000 174.000
/

T h o i g ia n h o a n von la nam thu14

Theo nguyen ly thai gian hoan von, thai gian ho&n v6n
cua p hu an g an 2 cung nhu phuang an mot, la nam thu 4. Tuy
nhicn nguyen ly nay bo qua cac luong tien dien ra sau n&m thu 4
va khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien. Co hai han che
cua nguyen ly nay nhu sau.
f f

8.5.1.2. Nguyen ly thai gian hoan von: cac y kien tan

themh va p h a n hoi
f \

Nguyen ly thoi gian hoan von trong danh gia du an dau tu

co hai han che chu yeu sau:
• Bo qua gia tri thai gian cua tien: Nguyen ly thai gian
r \ \

hoan von gia dinh la luong tien nhan duac trong tuang lai cung
ngang bang ve gia tri cua luong tien nhan duac trong n&m hien
f \ r * 1 \

tai. Trong thuc te, chung ta can chiet khau cac luong tien trong
* ' ' > >
tuang lai de lam chung ngang bang ve gia tri vai cac luong tien
hien tai, bai vi cac Iti0 ii6 tien hien tai co the duac dau tu de thu
dugc lai trong tuang lai. Tuy nhien, trong khi nguyen ly thai
f r x

gian hoan von khong xem xet den gia tri thai gian cua tien,

129
khong co ly do giai thich tai sao chiet khau luong tien U m' ii '
dugc su dung trong cac phan tich nay. %
« Bo qua cac luong tien phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von:
Chi co luong tien 6 giai doan cuoi cung ma von ban dau da
dugc bii dap dugc coi la phu hgp trong cac phan tich nay. va \ i
vay nguyen ly thai gian hoan von tao ra mot bite tranh khong
hoan chinh ve tai chinh eua du an dau tu. Tat ca cac luong tien
phat sinh sau thoi gian hoan von bi bo qua.
Mac du co cac ban che tren, phuong phap thoi gian hoan
/ r \

von dugc su dung rong rai trong thirc te, vi nhieu ly do.
- D an g ia n : Chi tieu thai gian hoan von de hieu va de tinh
r » \ \

han so vcri nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien.

- Tao buc man che cho d u an dau tu: Nguyen l v thai gian
t y f r

hoan von dau tu cung ^ ap mot cong cu che dau du an dau tu.
Neu mot du an khong tim dugc tieu chuan thai gian hoan von,
nha quan ly co the tir choi du an mac du cac luong tien lan tiem
an dugc tinh trong tuang lai.
f s ' »

- Khan hiem tien: Khi mot cong ty bi khan hiem tien, cong
■> r f \ '

ty se lira chon cac dir an co the bu dap dugc von dau tu ban dau
f t f •*

trong thai gian ngan nhat. Mot cong ty it von co the khong doi
X f

dugc ky tra tien lan ciia mot du an vai thai gian hoan von lan,
nhung NPV kha thi. Tham chi trong cac truong hgp, no ncn sir
t / \ *

dung cimg vai mot p hu an g phap chiet khau luong tien.

f

- Cac rui ro cua d u an: Cong cu thai gian hoan von cung
t ' . X
cap nhung cach nhin nhan riii ro ciia mot du an. Cac luong tien
thu duac trong thai gian sdm thi se on dinh ban cac luong tien
nhan dugc tu cac nam sau. Cac luong tien cang xa trong lui?ng
lai thi muc do khong on dinh cang cao.
«

no
 S. 5.2. Xtfuyeii ly ty /<? sin It tin ke loan

Ty le sinh lai hach toan tap trung vao cac Igi nhuan ke
toan luy kc dirge nhan tir du an. Lgi nhuan kc toan dugc dua
trcn thuc te phat sinh. Vi vay doanh thu dugc nhan trong suot
<]ua trinh ban hang ehir khong nhat thiet la khi tien dugc thu
vao. chi phi dugc xcm xct trong suot ca thoi ky dugc thu vao,
chi phi dugc xem xet trong suot ca thoi ky ma chung phat sinh
r / > n

chir khong nhat thiet la khi chung dugc thanh toan bang tien
mat.
■t /

Cong thuc sau dugc sir dung de tinh ty le sinh lcri ke toan
trong mot du an:

Ty le sinh lcn Lgi nhuan trung binh mot nam cua du an

hach toan = 77 ~ ~ "71
So tien dau tu ban dau
Chu y rang cong thuc ty le sinh lai du toan giong cong
9 r \ _____ /

thirc tinh tysuat hoan von dau tu (ROI). Ty le sinh lai ketoan la
mot ROI hang nam hieu qua cho mot du an.
Hay xem xet phuang an 1 ciia cong ty, mua mot may M
■* * % X

mai. Be ap dung nguyen lyty le sinh lgi ke toan, luong tien

%

trong bang 8.1 can dugc phan tich lai theo thuat ngu doanh thu
va chi phi (Trong vi du chung ta gia dinh rang luong tien vao la
f -w > >

doanh thu hay tiet kiem chi phi moi nam, luong tien ra la chi phi
trong cung mot nam).
Doanh thu cong don cua du an gia dinh la 90.000 do la
mot nam. Chi phi cong don la so am, khi chung bao gom tiet
kiem chi phi la 93.00C do la. Dieu nay dugc chinh lai ve tiet
kiem chi phi la 200.000 do la cong vai 107.000 do la. Gia sir M
co thoi gian sir dung la 5 nam, theo phuang phap khau hao
d u ang thang, mire khau hao hang nam dugc tinh nhau sau:

131
 vOOOO U S D - (-V30UO t 13 1V45)
I v le sinh lai ke toa:• •• --------------- - - ; — ------~
05971.') USD
= 7,74%
Chu y ty le sinh lai ke toan la 7,74%, thap ban IRR la
12%.
S .5.2.1. Sir dung dau nr trung binh
Mot so nha quan ly thich. tinh ty le sinh lai ke toan sir
dung khoan dau ur trung binh trong mot dir an cho mau so, han
day du cae chi phi cho dir an. Cong thirc nlnr sau:
Ty le sinh lai Lot nhuan trung binh hang nam cua dir an
ke toan Dau tu truuy binh
Trung binh dau tir ciia mot dir an la gia tri ghi so ke toan
trung binh ciia du an. Gia tri ghi so trung binh ciia du an mua
may M la:
_ , , . ,x (Dau tu ban dau + Gia tri tan dung)
Trung binh dau tu ~ — ------------------ --------- *—1---- :—

- (659715 + 0) 12
Vi vay ty le sinh lai ke toan sir dung dau tu trung binh hi:
15,48% = 51057/329857 * 100%.
Chu y ket qua eiia ty le sinh liri ke toan cao han ty suat noi
t

hoan (12%). Koi chung, moi quan he duoc mo ta nhu sau:

Ty le sinh ^ Ty suat hoan Tv le sinh lai

lai ke toan vdn noi bo ke toan
 ( S u d u n e dau tu han d a u ) (S ir d u n : dau t u tru n g binh)
ti.y .2 .2 . T y !c s i n h l a i k e t o a n : c a c y f i c n r fa n h g i d

Cac mi d i e m c u a n g u y e n l y t y le s i n h l a i kc toan, so sanh

vai cac cong cu khac nhu nhau:
/ ' r

• Tao man chan cho d ir an d a u tir t r u n g binh: Giong nhu

nguyen ly thai gian hoan von, ty le sinh la i ke toan la mot cach
thuc dan gian de phan tich du an dau tu.
r f

• T u a n g ung vai cac nguyen ly ke toan tai chinh: Mot so

nha quan ly sir dung phuang phap nay hai vi no tuang xirng vai
t /

c;ic bao cao tai chinh ke toan, no dua tren ghi chep ke toan.
• T u a n g img vai he thong gia tri thuc hien dua tren lgi
/ r r y \

nhuan: Khong giong nhu nguyen ly chiet khau luong tien, co su

r

tuang thich gitra ty le sinh lai ke toan va thuc hien do luong dua
/ \

tren ke toan, nhu la tai dau tu.

• Theo doi toan bo du an: Khong giong nhu nguyen ly
f \ r

thai gian hoan von dau tu, nguyen ly ty le sinh lai ke toan theo
doi toan bo d u an.
i r r

N hugc diem cua phuang phap ty le sinh lai ke toan, giong

f f \

nhu p h u a n g phap thai gian hoan von ke toan la khong de cap

> %

gia tri thai gian cua luong tien.

t

P huang phap ty le sinh lai ke toan co cac ten goi khac

f

nhau nhu: Ty le sinh lai dan gian, ty le hoan von cua tai san, ty
f \ * \

le hoan von khong dieu chinh, ty le hoan von dau tu (ROI).

A '

8.6. Vai tro cua ke toan trong phan tich dau tu-
** r / \ \ / >

Be chiet khau luong tien trong cac quyet dinh ve du an

dau tir, nha quan ly can co su doi chieu luong tien chinh xac.
* * r /

Muon vay can co vai tro cua ke toan quan tri. Ke toan thuang
i ’ / f

dugc yeu cau dir tinh cac luong tien lien quan den tiet kiem chi

133
phi hoat dong, yeu cau von hoat dong tang them, hay chi ohi
cong don va doanh thu. Rat kho dir tinh khi co rat nhieu cac you
to thay ddi. Chung ta tlnrdng nhd den cac so lieu ke toan cu do
dir tinh chi phi. Cac hieu biet vc dieu kien thi trudng, xu hu<Tn$>
kinh te va cac phan img cua ddi thu canh tranh la quan trong
trong cac luong tien dir an.
Hai cong cu dirge sir dung trong thue te de phan tich kc
hoach dau tu ma cac du tinh luong tien khong on dinh:
f r r \ '

a. L ai suat chiet khdu duc/c linh cau han. Cac luong tien
*» / / r

eua mot dir an cang khong on dinh, lai suat chiet khau cang cao.
/ t

Sir dung cong cu IRR, cac cong ty tang lai chiet khau tren chi
r f \ * *»

phi von ciia cong ty neu cac luong tien la khong on dinh. Vdi
nguyen ly NPV, lai chiet khau dugc ap dung de tinh gia tri hien
X X ■»

tai cho cac luong tien khong on dinh dugc tang len.
*

b. Sic dung p h a n tich do nhay cam. Phan tich nhay cam

du gc sir dung de danh gia do nhay cam cua cac anh hudng ciia
/ r t f ' *

so lugng ban toi doanh thu va chi phi tdi cac yeu to bien doi
■»

khong on dinh. Phan tich do nhay cam cung dugc sir dung trong
phan tich dau tu de xac dinh cac luong tien cho mot quyet dinh
du gc ung ho. Be minh hoa, hay xem xet quyet djnh ciia cong ty
A mua m ay M mdi.
9 ' /

Cac so lieu can thiet ciia phuang an 1 nhu sau:

B a n vi: Do la
\
I ii

X X
Luong Thira sd Gia tri
Loai luong tien X

tien chiet khau hien tai

Chi phi ban dau (659.715) 1 (659.715)

Tiet kiem chi phi hang 183 3,791 693.753
nam d u a c du tinh
@ 1 0%

134
 NPV - 34.038 USD
Gia sir clui cur an khong bict ch.a.; \ c so tien tiet kiem chi
phi hang nam. Tiet kiem chi phi hang nan: giam bao nhieu truac
khi quyet djnh se co ket qua NPV nho lion 0? Can hoi luong tu
la: Chi phi tiet kiem hang nam la bao nhiei de NPV - 0 trong
quyet dinh nay? Khi NPV = 0, gia trj hien tai ciia tiet kiem chi
phi bang vai chi phi ban dau:
r

,, PV cua chi Chi phi Thua so

' 11 Px1 = phi tiet kiem = tiet kiem x chiet khau
ban dau ' , , ,
hang nam hang nam tuong xung

Phi tiet kiem Chi phi ban dau „ _

= ------------------- t
---------- t-----------------------------— f . ^ Q 7
*~ 7 1^/7 7 Q 1
hang nam Thua so chiet khau hang nam
= 174021 USD
Neu chi phi tiet kiem hang nam la 174021 USD, NPV cua
phuong an 1 se bang 0 (659715 - (174021 x 3.791) = 0). Vi vay
/

chi phi tiet kiem hang nam dugc du tinh truac tien la 183000
USD co the giam xuong con 74023 USD, du an van dugc chap
thuan ve p h u a n g dien tai chinh.

8.7. Kiem toan dir an dau tu- da hoan thanh

/ >

Su chap thuan mot du an dau tu piiu thuoc vao do chinh

\ \ s > \

xae cua cac du tinh luong tien. Neu cac luong tien co do chinh
xae khong cao, co the dan tai chap thuan mot du an khong
/ /

inong muon hoac tir choi cac du an kha thi. Bai vi su quan trgng
cua qua trinh d u toan dau tu, mot so cac cong ty theo doi co cac
4 f

du an de xem chung thuc hien nhu the nao. Cac buac nay dugc
goi la "hau kilm " (PCA).
-i \

Trong hau kiem, thong tin dugc iien quan tai cac luong
> r

tien thuc te dugc tao ra bai du an va dugc so sanh vai cac gia

135
dinh da dirge tong ket trong kc hoach dai: tir. P( A dirge sir dung
de cung cap cac thong tin phan hoi ve do chinh xac cua cac gia
djnh ban dau cho dir an. Doi khi. PCA se chi ra cac thu nhap
t »

ngin han trong qua trinh du tinh cac luong tien. 1rong khi hai
Ivjfi ioi co the xay ra trong quyet dinh dau tir co ban - hau kiem
i e

cki tham dinh cac dir an da dugc chap thuan. No khong danh gia
§ r

chat lugng ciia cac gia dinh cua dir an da bi tu choi.

Khi trong nhieu qua trinh danh gia su thue hien, viec hau
khong nen sir dung cac cong cu gay kho khan. Trong diem
hau kiem se la cung cap thong tin toi cac nhan vien phong
dg toan dau tir. nguoi quan ly du an va doi quan ly. Phuong
phap hau kiem lam cho vice tong ket. rut kinh nghiem dugc de
dang va de hoan thien cac du tinh luong tien va quyet dinh dir
\

toan dau tu.

•+ \

Kiem tra cac dir ait dau tic

Nhieu d u an dau tu co thoi gian dai de hoan thanh nhu

1 -» '

chang han xay mot toa nha Ion hay phat trien vung dau mo. Lgi
ich thu dugc tir du an sau khi hoan thanh dugc thay ro tren ca
thoi gian dai. De giup kiem tra cac du an dau tu c o ban, cac nha
quan ly co the dua tren nhieu khai niem va cong cu dugc nghien
+ f f r r

cuu. D u toan co the dugc doi chieu voi cac ket qua thirc te, su
chenh lech du gc tinh toan va bao cao thue hien du tinh dugc
chuan bj. Qua trinh kiem tra doi vai cac du an dau tu c a ban la
f t t / / ■»

rat kho khan. He thong ke toan thuong khong dugc thiet ke de

theo doi timg du an nho. Boi vi moi du an la duy nhat, co the
khong dugc thue hien trong thoi gian trd ve truoc do do khong
A* f \ / f

co kinh nghiem h u a n g dan cho ke toan. Dong thai rat kho xac
dinh dugc ket qua thue hien thue te nao bi trech h u a n g hay cac
du tinh nao bi sai. H an nua, bao cao du tinh thue hien co the
dinh h u a n g cho nha quan ly can tap trung vao van de gi nhat.

136
 r ^

<S.S. Danh gia su thuc hien cua du an: v a n de h a n h vi

Xcm bang X I theo each khac. mo ta mot to chirc khi tap

trung cac dir an dau tir c a ban. Khi bieu do chi ra, sir thuc hien
dirge mot thai gian cu the bao gom cac kct qua dugc ket noi cua
sir 11urc hien cua cac dir an dang thuc hien trong suot thai kv do.
0 -7

Prong thue te, co sir khac nhau giira cac tieu chuan danh gia cac
du an thanh vien va cac tieu chuan dugc sir dung de danh gia
tong the ca du an cua nha quan ly va cac phan doan kinh doanh.
Sir khac nhau nay dugc phan tich qua vi du sau. Gia su lanh dao
phoug ban cua cong ty A dang xem xet mua mot may mai. Thai
gian sir dung la 5 nam, viec dua may mai vao su dung dugc
mong dgi se tang doanh thu cho cong ty. Chi phi ban dau cua
may mdi, doanh thu du tinh, chi phi du tinh va gia tri hien tai
rong nhu sau:
D an vi: USD

Thoi gian 0 1 2 3 4 5
/

Chi phi ban dau Tiet kiem chi phi

(800.000) 140.000 150.000 260.000 280.000 300.000
x1 x 0,909 x 0,826 x 0,751 x 0,683 x 0,61
(800.000) 127.260 123.900 195.260 191.240 186.300

N PV = 23.960 USD
Lai chiet khau la 10%
Mac du he thong mai co NPV ducmg, doanh thu trong cac
\ * r

nam dau tuang doi thap. Bai vi se co su vugt qua mire kha nang
' • v .'
trong nhung nam dau. Tai sao lai phat sinh van de nay? Giong
nhu nhieu dan vi khac, cong ty A sir dung lgi nhuan phan chia
de danh gia su thuc hien cua dich vu dugc cung ung. Gia sir

137
; Tien 1l .: j]40.000j 150.000 i 2o0.000 ! 2SO.OOO .'00.000 J
jTru di khau hao j 160.0001 160.000 | 160.000 j 160.000 •i 60.000 j
tai tang them ;( 20.000)!10.000) j 100.000 | 120.000 : 140.000 I
Chi phi khau h-o san khong phai la luong tien. va vi
vav cac chi phi do knorm duac tinh tronu nhan tich uia tri hien
• - 4 »w »— <. w

tai rong. Man nfra, miie khau hac hang nam dm re tru di theo
phuang phap ke u a n theo phat sinh thirc te de xac dinh lai
nhuan d a tinh. Vi vay mot sir khac biet co the xay ra git'ra
phuang phap chiet khau luong tien va danh gia sir thue hien
theo ke toan phat sinh thirc te. Van de nay it khi xay ra khi
phuang phap ty le sinh lai ke toan (tai dau tu) duac sir dung de
danh gia cac ke hoach dau tu. Tuy nhien, cac phong ban va cac
nha quan ly su dung phuang phap tai dau tu. neu ty le sinh lai
ke toan d u ac sir dung la phuang phap danh gia du an, no duac
tinh nhu la tv le truns.' binh hang nam. tren toan bo cac nam thirc
hien dir an. Trong khi phuang phap ty le sinh loi ke toan co the
d u ac chan thuan de danh gia du an, ROI than dtrae dir tinh
trong cac nam dau tien co the lain cac nha quan ly nan chi khi
dau tu du an.
Don gian, mot nha quan ly co the tir choi mot du an co
NPV d u a n g mac du no da duac toan bi) cong ty chap thuan. Bai
vi no se giam leri nhuan phan chia trong cac nam dau, vao tao
earn giac la cac nha quan ly khong thirc hien tot. Di nhien, trong
dai han, du an se co ket quit vai mire lai nhuan cao cho bp phan,
nhung chi trong cac nam thue hien dir an ve sau.
Giai phap ticm nang cho van de hanh vi dupe mo ta tren la
vico iir dung cong cu do luong dira trcn ioi nhuan. Khi thuc
hien phuang phap chict khau luong tien do ra quyet dinh lira
chon du an dau tu, danh gia sir thuc luon du an dua trcn hau
kiem ciia du an do. Tuy nhicn, do luirng hicu qua dua tren ke
toan phat sinh theo thirc te la phuang phap tot trong thuc te. Co
/ t •* / * \

le giai phap mang tinh thue te nhat de giai quyet van de nay la
lam to cho cac nha quan ly ve su khac biet giira ke toan thuc te
r * \ \ t

va phan tich chict khau luong tien. Neu su thuc hien dugc danh
|| %
gia bai ca hai phuang phap ke toan theo so phat sinh thuc te va
% > f

haii kiem cua cac du an dau tu, su khac biet co the dugc khac
phi ic

139
 t

Ch itGng i)
DOANH LOI, RUI RO
TRONG HOAT D O N G DAU TU

9.1. Khai niun chung vc doanh lgi va rul ro

r /

9.1.1. Doanh i n tuyet doi va doanh loi lining doi

Thu nhap cua khoan dau tir \ a o mot tai san dirge cau
thanh bai hai bg phan: T h u nhat la thu nhap do chinh ban than
tai san do mang lai va thu hai la 16 hoac lai do giam hoac tang
gia cua tai san dau tu (con dugc ggi la 16 hoac lai ve von).
, . Thu nhap Lai (hoac trir 16)
Doanh lai = . .. '* + * x (9.1)
tu tai san \ re von '
Dc minh hoa ro han, chung ta hay nghicn ciru thi du sau:
Thi du 1:
\ ' i f

Dau nam gia mot co phieu cua doanh nghiep A la 37 dan

\ f

vi tien te (dv), neu mua 100 co phieu. ta phai chi mot khoan la
3.700 dv. Gia su rang: Sau 1 nam doanh nghiep A se tra lai co
> t \

phan la 1,85 dv cho 1 co phan, vay ta se nhan dugc:

Thu nhap tir co phan = 1,85 dv x 100 = 185 dv
Lai gia sir tiep rang vao cuoi nam gia moi co phieu tang
len la 40,33 dv vay ta co lai ve von:
Lai vc von - (40,33 dv - 37 dv) x 100 = 333 dv

140
 I rong tnrong hon eia cua moi c-i r h e u giam xuong 34.78
dv ta sc bj lo vc von:
Lo vc von = (34,78 dv - 37 dv) \ 100 - -222 dv
Tong so doanh loi trorm turoni: hop co lai vc von:
W * v v. • I

l ong doanh loi - 185 dv + 333 dv - 518 dv

Gia dinh rang: ta co mot so co phan ciia doanh nghiep A
va khong ban co phieu vao cuoi nam, lieu ta co nghT rang co
mot khoan thu nhap ve von trong tong so doanh loi ciia ta hay
r

khong? Tat nhien cau tra loi la co, bai vi tren thi truong da
* i / * r

khang dinh su tang gia co phieu ma ta dang co, neu ta muon co

* -* » 9

tien mat thi ta co the ban cd phieu mot cach de dang. Ta quyet
dinh khong ban la vi ta cho rang viec tiep tuc dau tu vao doanh
nghiep A la su lira chon toi uu.
Tren day chiing ta da noi ve doanh loi tinh bang so tuyet
r >

doi. Tuy nhien, tren thirc te, nguoi ta hay sir dung thong tin ve
doanh loi duai dang so tuong doi va goi no la doanh loi tuong
* / /

doi. Viec sir dung doanh loi tuong doi rat thuan tien vi no khong
\ r ____ r

phu thuoc vao luong dau tu thue te ciia chung ta. Thue chat
9 9

chung ta chi muon tra loi mot so cau hoi se nhan dugc bao
nhieu lai tir mot don vi von dau tu.
Cong thirc tinh doanh loi tuong doi:
■
* \ r

Lai co phan cuoi ky + Mire thay

1 T 9 9

Doanh l o i ______ doi gia co phieu cuoi ky

tirong doi ~~ Gia co phieu dau ky \ ■)
Theo thi du 1, doanh loi tuong doi duoc xac dinh nhu sau:

Doanh loi tuong doi = = 0,14 — 14%

t \

Do su thuan tien ciia doanh lai tuang doi, tu nay ve sau

141
khi ta noi thuat ngir doanh lai thi co nglmi hi ta noi vc doanh ■
tu a n g doi.
f

9.1.2. D oanh lo'i th u c te va doanh loi danh n<>/ua

* ♦ « o

Doanh lai thuc te duac tinh toan theo cach a tren duac goi
• * • O «

la: doanh lai danh nghTa. So di ta goi do la doanh lai danh nghia
* * f

vi ket qua do chua d uac dieu chinh theo lam phat. Cung vai ket
/ \ r

qua tren, neu ta dieu chinh no theo toe do lam phat thi so co
t

doanh lai thuc te. *

Lam phat tac dong den doanh lai thirc te nhu the nao? Gia
sir dau nam ma 1kg nhom la 5dv. Von I OOdv vao dau nam ta co
the mua dugc 20kg nhom. Den cud! do lam phat la 5% non
gia nhom tang len 5% nghla la: 1kg nhom vao cuoi nam so la:
5dv + (5dv x 0,05) - 5,25dv. Neu dau nam ta bo ra lOOdv de
mua co phieu, cuoi nam ta se ban co phieu ya thu d u a c tong so
\ ■* 1

tien la 115,5dv. Gia sir vao thai diem do ta dung tien thu duac
de mua nhom, ta se mua dugc: 115,5/5,25 = 22kg nhom. Neu ta
% p

do doanh lgi bang lugng nhom mua dugc thi doanh lgi tuyet doi
se la: (115,5/5,25) - 20 = 2kg nhom. Doanh lgi tu a n g doi sc la:
2/20 = 0,1 = 10%. N h u vay, doanh lgi danh nghTa a day la
15,5% nhune tren thuc te sue mua cua ta chi tanu 10%. niihla la
f \ f

doanh lgi thuc te bang 10%. Vai chi so lam phat la 5%, moi dv
trong tong thu nhap danh nghTa ( 1 15,5dv) se giam 5% trong gia
tri thuc te cua no. Vi vay, gia tri thuc te trong khoan dau tu cua
ta d u a c xae dinh nhu sau: 115.5/1.05 = 110 dv (doanh lgi thirc
/ / r r

te tuyet doi la lOdv va doanh lgi thuc te tuang doi la 10%).

Neu ta goi R la doanh lgi danh nghTa. r la doanh lgi thuc
/ i f f

te, h la ty le lam phat thi ta co the thay moi quan he giua doanh
r

lgi danh nghTa, doanh lgi tlnrc te va ty le lam phat qua cong thirc

142
sau d a v .
(1 * R) : ( ! • r) i I + h) (9.3)
Suy ra:
! + R
r= --p - - ! (9.4)

R - r + h v rh (9.5)
Cong thirc tren chi ra rang: doanh lendanh nghia co ba bo
phan hop thanh. Bo phan thu nhat la doanh loi thue to (r),bo
phan thu hai chi'nh ia su den bd viec giam gia tri cua khoan tien
dau tu ban dau do lam phat (h), bo phan cuoi cung ia sir den bii
ve viec giam gia tri ciia doanh leu do lam nhat (rh).
Thanh phan thir ba thuong rat nho, 'd vay, tren thue te khi
tinh toan nguoi ta thuong bo di. iMur vay, cong thue tinh toan
doanh loi danh ptihla thue te nhu sau:
*

R= r + h (9.6)

9.1.3. D oanh Iffi binh quan

/ 1 \ *

Tren thi truong von, chung ta co the dau tu vao nhieu loai
1 / f

tai san khac nhau nhu la: co phieu thuong. trai phieu doanh
/ f

nghiep dai han, trai phieu dai han ciia Chinh phii, thuong phieu,
•v \

v.v... Moi loai dau tu nay mang lai mire doanh loi khac nhau
r f t

theo timg thai ky nhat dinh. De thay d u ac muc doanh Igi cua
v x t '

moi loai dau tu cho timg nam. nguoi ta can thu thap doanh loi
thue te ciia moi loai va tinh doanh loi binh quan cho timg loai d
moi nam cu the.
Thi du 2:
/

Nam 1990, d mot nude nao do co 10 loai co phieu thudng

ciia 10 doanh nghiep khac nhau. Cuoi nam 1990 doanh loi ciia

143
cac loai co phieu nay nhu sau:
0,10 0,12 0,08 0,20 0,25 0,01 0,04 0,05 0.20 0,25
Doanh lgi binh quan cua co phieu thong thuong nam 19°0
cua doanh nghiep dang xem xet la:
3,10 + 3,12 +3,08 +0,20 +3,25 +0,01 +3,04 +3,05 +3,20 + 0 ,2 5 _
10
= 0,175
T u a n g tu nhu vay ta co the tinh doanh lgi binh quan cho
cac loai dau tu khac. D ua tren co so cua doanh lgi binh quan
hang nam da thu thap dugc, ta co the xae dinh doanh lgi binh
quan cho mot thoi ky dai nhu: 5 nam, 10 nam, 100 nam...
1 /

Chang han, neu ta thu thap dugc doanh lgi binh quan hang
V 9 9

nam cua co phieu thuong tir nam 1981 den 1990, ta cong doanh
* /

lgi binh quan cua cac nam do, roi chia cho 10. Ket qua se cho ta
n r 9

doanh lgi binh quan cua co phieu thuong cho suot thoi ky 1981
- 1990.

9.1.4. R ui ro va mivc bu dap riii ro

S 9 .
Co nhieu loai chung khoan tren thi trucmg von, tai sao
/ *

nguoi ta khong chi chon nhung loai co doanh lgi cao nhat de
dau tu? Nguyen nhan dan den nhung quyet dinh dau tu khac
nhau la vi cac loai dau tu nay co do rui ro khac hau.
r '

Thong thuong, cac Chinh phu tien hanh vay ng bang cach
phat hanh chung khoan. N h un g chung khoan nay dugc the hien
duoi nhieu hinh thirc khac nhau. Trong so cac chimg khoan cua
Chinh phu thi tin phieu thuong co thoi han ngan nhat va lai suat
9 r 9^ £ A ' o

cung thuong thap nhat. Tai sao tin phieu co lai suat thap nhat?
Cau tra loi se la: Vi co do rui ro, hay noi cach khac, day la tai
% \ 9 ' \

san co do rui ro bang 0. Co nhieu nguoi mong muon viec dau tu

144
cua ho phai co do tin cay cao nhat nen ho rat thich mua tin
phieu. l u y nhien, cung co nhirng nguoi thich mao hiem vai hy
vong .se dat d u a c doanh lai cao hon.
r ■* '

Nguac lai voi tin phieu, co phieu thuang la loai tai san co
f ■> r

do nil ro cao nhat. Doanh lai ciia co phieu thuang hoan toan
f ' /

phu hap vao ket qua kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep, ma ket qua
/ / \ f r

kinh doanh lai la ham so ciia rat nhieu bien so.

f r

Theo so lieu thong ke, doanh loi binh quan hang nam cua
cho thai ky 1926 - 1988 cua mot so tai san tren thi trudng von
•y

ciia My d u a c the hien nhu sau:

Cac loai dau tu Doanh Igi binh quan

Co phieu thudng 12,1%
Trai phieu doanh nghiep dai han 5,3%
Trai phieu Chinh phu dai han 4,7%
Tin phieu 3,6%
/

Thong thudng, rui ro cang cao thi doanh lai cang ldn. Neu
f \ f

ta coi tin phieu co do rui ro bang 0 thi trai phieu Chinh phu dai
t * f

han, trai phieu doanh nghiep dai han, co phieu thudng la nhung
tai san co rui ro d nhung mire do khac nhau. Su chenh lech giua
doanh lai binh quan ciia cac tai san rui ro so vdi doanh lai cua
tai san khong co rui ro dugc goi la muc bu dap rui ro.
■» f

Theo bang tren, ta co the tinh muc bu dap rui ro cua cac
tai san riii ro nhu sau:

Cac tai san rui ro Muc bu dap rui ro

Co phieu thuong 8,5%
' r

Trai phieu doanh nghiep dai han 1,7%

Trai phieu Chinh phu dai han 1,1%

145
 9.I . \ P hu o’n g sai va do lech tieu chuan ve so lieu thong
ke theo thoi gian cua doanh loi

Phirong sai ia tone cac binh phuang trung binh cua do

chenh lech giira doanh lot thuc tc va doanh lgi binh quan (ky
^ t

hieu la 6 ). Phuang sai cang Ian thi doanh lai tlnrc tc cang ci> xu
huang khac biet nhieu han so vai doanh lai binh quan. Do lech
tieu chuan la can bfic hai cua phuang sai (ky hieu la 6). Trong
muc nay chung ta se tinh toan phuang sai va do lech tieu chuan
dua trcn so lieu lich sir cua doanh nghiep. Vi vay viec tinh toan
se giai thieu sau day chi dung cho truang h a p tinh toan phuang
sai dua tren so lieu lich sir. Trong truang h ap ta muon xae djnh
phuang sai cho cac khoan doanh lai du kien trong tuang lai thi
each xae dinh phuang sai se khac so voi phuang phap xae dinh
duac giai thieu trong muc nay. De hieu ro each xae dinh
phuang sai dua tren so lieu lich sir cua doanh lai, chung ta hay
nghien ciru thi du sau day:
Thi du 3: De tinh toan phuang sai va do lech tieu chuan,
ta gia sir rang: co mot khoan dau tu da tien hanh duac bon nam
vai doanh lai thuc te cua timg nam: 0.10 0,12 0,03 -0,09.
Doanh lgi binh quan se la (0,10 + 0,12 + 0,03 - 0,09)/4 = 0,14.
Chung ta hay xem xet bang sau day:

(D (3) (4)
(2)
Doanh lgi Doanh lcri Chenh lech Binh phircrng
thirc te binh quan (1) - (2) chenh lech

0,10 0,04 0,06 0,0036

0,12 0,04 0,08 0,0064
0,03 0,04 -0,01 0,0001

Toneo -0,09 0,04 -0,13 0,0169

cong 0,16 0,00 I. 0,0270
. - ...

146
 P Strong sai Var <!v i .Urge -:".‘i a
Vai t K j O.iU" M - .<><)9
D o loch neu chuan SD i’ R) dugc i n i ' r.lur sau:

S u . i< . o n.ouo 0 j'9 4 S 7

Theo bang tren ta thay: tong cua chenh lech luon luon
banc 0, dieu nav cnin chum ; ta co the kiem tia vice linh toan
meat ';ach de dang.
Neu ta ky hieu T la so nam quan sat. R. la doanh loi thirc
ic cib. nam thir i. R ia doanh loi binh auan hang nam cho suot
thoi ky xem xet. Ta se co cong thirc tinh phucmg sai nhu sau:

S (R, - K
Var (R) = jT~j----- (9-7)

Trong d o : i = 1,2. 3.... T

SD (R) = \l Var (R) (9.8)

9.2. Doanh loi, rui ro va duong thj truong chung khoan

Phan tren chung ta da ban ve doanh Igi, doanh lai binh

quan, cach tinh phuang sai va do lech tieu chuan cua doanh lai.
Trong phan nay, chung ta se tap trung nghien cuu xem lam the
nao de phan tich doanh lai va phuang sai khi chung ta co duac
thong tin lien quan den doanh lai dir kien va xac suat de dat
dirge doanh lai du kien do.

9.2.1. D oanh loi du kien

■% >

Gia su rang: chiing ta xem xet hai co phan L va U cho mot

thai ky la mot nam. Du kien doanh Igi ciia co phan L cho nam
r ■> v

toi la 25%. dir kien doanh Igi cua co phan U cho cung thai ky
la: 20%.

147
 Khi 111a cac nha dau tir den dong y ve doanh lgi di' kien
cho hai loai co phan trcn thi tai sao van co nguoi muon chon co
phan U? Rui ro la khi lira chon dau tu vao dau. cac nha dau tu
co tinh den muc do rui ro cua no.
Trong non kinh tc thi truiTng, nguoi ta thuang quan tarn
tai hai tinh trang kinh tc doi lap nhau, do la: nen kinh tc a trang
thai hung thinh va nen kinh te suy thoai. Trong nam tai co the
' * t

nen kinh te a trang thai hung thinh trong suot ca nam hoac cung
co the mot phan cua nam se la hung thinh va pluin con lai cua
nam se la suy thoai. Tom lai, cac tinh trang khac nhau cua nen
kinh te dugc xem nhu la nhung dai lugng ngau nhicn.
Thi du 4:
9 ' 9 1

Nguoi ta dir kien rang: or tinh trang kinh te hung thinh, co

phan L se co doanh lgi la 70% va co phan U se co doanh loi la
/ * / * x

10%. Neu nen kinh te a tinh trang suy thoai, co phan L se co

1 ^ t1
doanh lgi la -20% va co phan U se co doanh lgi la 30%. Ciia sir
t iv f * y

xae suat cho moi tinh trang kinh te ke tren deu la 0,5. Chung ta
co the tong ket bang bang sau:
/

Tinh trang
\
Xae suat xay Doanh lgi dur kien (%) cho timg
/

cua nen ra cho moi tinh trang kinh te

kinh te tinh trang kinh
Co phan L Co ph;\n U
te
Suy thoai 0,5 -20 30
Hung thinh 0,5 70 10

1,0
Neu ta mua co phan U, mot nira thai gian se cho ta doanh
lai la 30% va nira thai gian con lai se cho ta doanh lgi la 10%.
N hu vay, doanh lgi d u kien cho co phan U ky hieu la E(Ru) se
 I:(R. ) - 0.50 x 30% 0.50 x 10% =■■20%
Noi n o t cach khac. chung ta chd dai mot khoan doanh lai
binh -]uan la 20% cho suot thai ky xem xet.
Ttrang tir, doanh lai du kien binh quan cho co phan L ky
hie u la !:. (1%) se duac tinh nhu sau:
H(Ri) = 0,50 x -20%+ 0,50 x 70% = 25%
Den day ta co the biet ro: vi sao cd phan L co thu nhap du
kien cao han so vai co phan U ma van co ngudi thich mua co
phan U? Co phan L mac du co doanh lai du kien cao han nhung
do rt i ro cao han. Neu nhu sir suy thoai kinh te xay ra va keo
dai t ong suot thai ky thi co phan L se bi lo 20%, trong khi do,
du ii.n kinh te d tinh trang nao di nua thi co phan U van co lai.
' m r

Trong phan trudc, chung ta da dinh nghia muc bu dap rui

ro la phan chenh lech giua doanh lai cua tai san rui ro va doanh
lai cua tai san khong co rui ro. Chung ta co the ap dung dinh
f ' /

iigihn nay de tinh toan muc bu dap rui ro du kien nhu la sir
f \

chieni lech giua doanh lai du kien cua khoan dau tu co rui ro va
clo.am Igi chac chan cua khoan dau tu khong co rui ro.
Thi du 5:
Doanh Igi cua khoan dau tu khong co rui ro la 8%, ta goi
8%) a ty suat khong co rui ro va ky hieu la Rf. Ta co the viet
r f

co! ig thirc tinh muc bu dap rui ro du kien nhu sau:

/ /

Mire bu dap _ Doanh Igi Ty suat khong

rui ro du kien d u kien co rui ro
Muc bu dap rui ro du kien - E(R) - Rf (9.9)
Sir dung cong thue nay, ta co the tinh muc bu dap rui ro
du ken cho co phan L va co phan U:
Muc bu dap rui ro dir kien cho co phan U =

149
 I:(Ri ) - Rf -- 2 0 % - S'; ~»o/0
w /

r 0 s \

Muc bii dap rui ro dir kic; iso cu phan I. -

--- I:(R , J - R r - 25% - 8"- 17%
Vicc tinh toan doanh Ig; dir kien cho co phan U va co
phan L trong truang hap xae suat xay ra cho timg tinh tiang
kinh te la bang nhau d uac tong ket a bang sau day:
- ~ — •—
»
Co phan L Co phan U
(2) / ^n :
(1) (-V ; (5) (6)
(4) .
Tinh Xae suat Doanh Tich so Doanh Tich so
trang xav ra lgi dir (2) x (3) lgi
r dur (2) x (5)
kinh te cua moi kien cho kien cho
tinh timg timg
trang tinh tinh
kinh te trang r trang
kinh te kinh te
{
Suy thoai 0,50 | -0,20 -0,10 0,30 0,15
|
Hirng 0,50 0,70 0,35 0.10 0,05
thjnh
1,00 E (R l ) = 2 5 % E(Ru) =20%
* •>

Chung ta hay nghien cuu mot thi du khac de hieu ro han

\ f

ve cach tinh doanh lgi du kien.

Thi du 6:
\ r

Gia sir nguai ta tinh toan dugc rang: xae suat de xiiy ra
tinh trang kinh te hung thinh sc keo dai 20% thai gian xcm xet
/ 1 ^ *1 '

Hay xae dinh doanh lgi du kien cho co phan U va co phan L.

Neu ty le khong co riii ro la: 10%, hay tinh muc bu dap rui ro du
kien cho timg co phan.
Viec tinh toan the hien cr bang sau day:

150
 ( o pi'.an ! Co phan l ;
(!) (2) (3) (A) it) j (0)
Tm X a c suat Doanh I ' k h so IV>anh i Tich so
Ira n ; x a y ra loi dir Sen dir (2) x (5)
( 2 ) x (3)
k in h :c cua moi kien ch o kiei. cho
tinh tirng timg
tr a n g tin h tinh
k in h to trang trang
kinh te kinh te

Suy 0,8 - 0, 20 -0.16 0 >0 0,24

thoai
H irng (I 0 0.14 0,02
| thinh

,0 ! E(R| )--2% E(Rl;) « 2 6 %

Vi chi co hai kha nang co the xay ra la: hirng thinh va suy
thoai. Do vay. khi ta biet xac suat xav ra cua tinh trang hirng
thinh la 0,2 thi ta co the tinh dugc xac suat xay ra tinh trang suy
thoai la: (1 - 0,2 - 0,8).
/ * >

Mire bu dap rui ro cua cd phan U ~ 26% - 10% = 16%

Mire bu dap rui ro ciia co phan L = -2% - 10% = -12%

9.2.2. Tinh toan p h u ffng sai cua doanh loi dir kien

I)c tinh toan phuang sai ciia doanh Igi du kien cho cac
khoan dau tu khac nhau, trudc hot ta phai xac dinh cac chenh
lech binh phuang giua doanh Uri du kien cho tirng khoan dau tu
d mdi tinh trang kinh te va doanh Igi du kien binh quan. Sau do,
ta nhan tirng ket qua chenh lech binh phuang do vdi xac suat
tuang irng ciia no. Tong ciia cac tich so se la phuang sai cua
doanh Igi du kien cho khoan dau tu ma ta dang xem xet. Do
lech tieu chuan dugc tinh bang can bac hai ciia phuang sai.

151
 Thi du 7:
Do minh hoa ro han dieu vira noi a trcn, ta Hop tuc ay co
phan L va co phan U lam thi du. Trong truang hop xae suit xay
ra tinh trang hung thinh va suy thoai deu la 0.5. Plurang s.u cua
co phan U va co phan L sc la bao nhieu? Ta biet. E(R l ) :r 20%
va H(R l) = 25%. Viec tinh toan phuang sai cua hai co ph;.n nay
the hien trong bang sau:

(1) (2) (3) (4) D)

Tinh Xae C h e n h le c h ve B inh p h u a n g T i'ci so
trang suat d o a n h lgi ciia c h e n h le c h ( 2 ) x (5)
k i n h te x a y ra m o i ti n h t r a n g
cua moi k i n h te so v a i
tinh d o a n h lgi b i n h
trang q u a n du- k i e n
k i n h te

Co phan L

Suy thoai 0,5 -0,20 - 0,25 = 0,45 (- 0,4 5)2 = 0,1012.5

0,2025

Hung thjnh 0,5 -0,70 - 0.25 = 0,45 (0,45): = 0,2025 0,10125

5 l 2 = 0,2025

Co phan U

Suy thoai 0,5 0 , 3 0 - 0 . 2 0 = 0,10 (-0,1 0)2 = 0,01 0,005

Hung thinh 0,5 0 , 1 0 - 0 , 2 0 = -0,10 (0,10)2 = 0,01 0,005

6L-2 = 0,010
f \ + \ f
Ta thay rang: co phan L co thu nhap d u kien binh quan
i > » > ^ 1

cao han co phan U, nhung co phan U co do rui ro thap han co

phan L. Neu ta chon co phan L, ta co the dat dugc muc doanh
lgi la 70% trong dieu kien cua nen kinh te hung thinh. Tuy
’ ' • Ji
nhien, ta cung co the bi lo 20% trong dieu kien nen kinh te lam
vao tinh trang suy thoai. Ngugc lai, trong moi dieu kien thi co

152
phan IJ deu co doanh lgi it nhat la 10” V:W ta ien mua co phan
naoV Rat kho tra liri, vice mua co phan nav la do sd thich cua
ngudi mua. Mot so nguoi tiuch duonu dau vdi rui ro de hy vong
co dugc doanh lgi cao hon .ien ho illicit mua cd phan L. Mot so
n gu d i khac khong thich lieu lTnh nen ho sc chon mua co phan U.

9.2.3. Danh muc dau tu

\ %

Danh muc dau tu ia mot nhom cac tai san nhu la co phan
t \ t

va trai phieu do mot nguoi dau tu nam giu. Noi chung, cac nha
X > ' t \ ^ #

dau tu thuong dau tu vao nhieu noi the hien bang nhieu loai trai
/ _
phieu khac nhau. Trong phan tren ta da nghien cuu rui ro va
doanh lgi cua tung tai san rieng biet. Trong phan nay chung ta
se tap trung nghien cuu doanh lgi du kien va phuang sai cua
\

danh muc dau tu.

9.2.3.1. Trong so cua danh muc dau tu
Co nhieu cach khac nhau de dien ta mot danh muc dau tu,
t

tuy nliien, cach thuan tien nhat la liet ke danh sach cua tung
khoan dau tu vai gia tri cua no dugc tinh theo ty le phan tram so
* / \ \ \

vai tong so tien dau tu cua mot ngudi dau tu nao do. Chung ta
\ /

goi nhung ty le phan tram nay la nhung trong so cua danh muc
dau tu.
Thi du 8:
• r \ \ '

Tong so tien dau tu cua mot ngudi dau tu nao do la 200dv,

anh ta dau tu vao mot loai tai san vdi go tien la 50dv, con lai
150dv anh ta dau tu vao mot tai san khac. Vay, trong so danh
muc dau tu cho tai san thu nhat la: 50/200 - 0,25. Trong so
danh muc dau tu cho tai san thu hai la: 150/200 = 0,75. Neu
danh muc dau tu cua ta bao gom mot tram loai tai san khac

153
nhau, chung ta sc co mot tram trong so cho danh muc dau tir do.
T uy nhien. can luu y rang: tong cua tat ca cac trong so cun danh
muc dau tir bao gid cung bang 1.
9.2.3.2. Doanh la i du kien cua danh muc dau tir
Thi du 9
Trd lai co phan U va co phan L, neu ta dung m d riira so
tien dau tu vao cd phan U va mot nua sd tiC-n con lai ti d a u tu
•* \ \ t

vao cd phan L, trong dieu kien xac xuat xay ra cho t'nh trang
kinh te hung thinh va suy thoai lanhu nhau va bang (,5. Vay
0 \

doanh Igi d u kien cho danh muc dau tu cua ta la bao n h u u ?

\ t f

Gia sir, nen kinh te lam vao tinh trang suy thoai m o t thdi
ky xem xet, mot nua sd tien dau tu vao cd phan L se bi lo 20%,
r \ \ •» x

mot nira sd tien dau tu vao cd phan U se cd lai 30%. Nh u vay

doanh Igi cua danh muc dau tu (ky hieu la Rp) se dugc inii nhu
sau:
R P = 0,5 x (-20%) + 0,5 x 30% = 5%
t \ r ^ #

Neu nen kinh te hoan toan hung thinh trong suot tida gian
xem xet, ta cd:
R P = 0,5 x 70% + 0,5 x 30% = 40%
N hung xac suat xay ra tinh trang kinh te suy thoai /a hung
x r

thinh la nhu nhau va bang 0,5. Do do, doanh nghiep d u lie:n cho
\

danh muc dau tu cua ta dugc ky hieu la E(Rp) se la:

E(R P) = 0,5 x 5% + 0,5 x 40% = 22,5%
Trong phan trudc chung ta da nghien cim cach tim (doanh
Igi d u kien cho timg loai tai san rieng biet nhu la cho ccplhan U
cho ta E(Ru) va cd phan L cho ta E(Rl). De tinh dam llai d u
kien cho danh m uc dau tu mot cach nhanh chong hon via true

154
tiep Ivrn, ta co he lav trong so cua tirng /o<// /az .vc/// rieng biet
\ /
trong danh m uc dau tir nhan vai doanh Uri dir kien cua tai san
t r

do. Cong tat ca cac tich so do vov nhau /<: sc co doanh lai d u
kien cua danh m uc dau he.
0 thi du 4 ta da tinh dugc doanh lgi dir kien cua co phan
U la I ( R u ) 20% va doanh lgi du kien cua co phan L la E(R l)
= 25%, theo dieu kien neu ra a thi du 9, trong so cua co phan U
> % r r
va co phan L deu la 0,5. Ta tinh dugc doanh lgi du kien cho
*

danh muc dau tu nhu sau:

E(RP) = 0,5 x E(Rl ) + 0,5 x E(Ru) = 0,5 x 25% + 0,5 x
20% == 22,5%
Cach tinh toan nay khong phu thuoc vao viec co bao nhieu
loai tai san trong danh muc dau tu. Gia sir danh muc dau tu cua
ta co n tai san, x* la trong so cua tai san i. Vay, cong thuc chung
1 / ' /

de tinh doanh lgi dir kien cho danh muc dau tu se dugc viet nhif
sau:
n
E(R) = X ,E (R ,) + X 2E(R2) + ... + XnE(Rn) = SX,E(Ri)
i=l
vdi i = 1, 2, 3,... n (9.10)
9.2.3.3. P huang sai cua danh muc dau tu
Thi du 10:
1 f t / y \

De trinh bay mot cach ngan gon, ta tiep tuc lay co phan U
■» > x r \

va co phan L lam thi du. Trcn day, ta da tinh dugc rang, neu nen
r r
kinh te hoan toan roi vao tinh trang suy thoai trong suot thdi ky
nghien cuu thi doanh lgi du kien cho danh muc dau tu la 5%,
^ > f f

neu non kinh te hung thinh trong suot thai ky nghien cuu thi
doanh lgi d u kien cho danh muc dau tu se la 40%. Trong dieu

155
kien xac suat xay ra cho ca hung thinh va suy thoai ecu la 0>,5 ta
da tinh dugc Hi Ri>) = 0.225. Vav. phucmg sai va do lech cihiian
cua danh muc dau tu la hao nhieu?
Viec tinh toan phuang sai va do lech tieu chum cua (danh
X /

muc dau tu dugc toim ket a bane; sau:

( 1) ( 2) (3) (4) (5)>

Tinh Xac Doanh Binh phuang cac Tich so
trang suat Igi cua chenh lech giura doanh (2) x «(5)
kinh te xay ra danh lai theo timg tinh trang
cua moi muc kinh te va doanh lai dir
tinh dau tir kien binh quan ciia
trang cho danh muc dau tu
kinh te moi
tinh
trang
kinh te
Suy thoai 0,5 5% (0,05 - 0,225)2 = 0,030625 0.0153 125

Hung 0,5 4 0% ( 0 , 4 0 - 0 , 2 2 5 ) 2 = 0,030625 0,0153 12.5

thinh

6 ; = 0,03(0625

5 P = V 0,030625 = 17,5%

Thi du 11:
■* r \

Gia sir, chung ta thay doi cac trong so cua dam muc: dau
f \ i » _ '

tu: 2/11 so tien dung de dau tu vao co phan L va so ien com lai
■» X *» X \ X f

9/11 dung de dau tu vao cd phan U. Trong dieu kien ien kirnh te
suy thoai trong suot thai ky nghien cim, doanh Igi or kiem cua
danh muc dau tu dugc xac djnh nhu sau:
R, = (2/11) x (-20%) + (9/11) x 30% = 2 0,9 P/o

156
 i r o n g d i e u k i e n n e n k i n h te h i r r ;i1 t h i n ' i m o t t h a i k y x e m
\ e i , d()«iiih lo i du k i e n e u a d a n h m u c ur d i r g e x a c d i n h n l n r
sau:

R P - ( 2 / 1 1 ) x 7 0 % + ((9/1 I ) x 1 0 % ) 20,91%

Nhu vay, neu ta bo tri danh muc dau nr theo cac trong so
nhu tren thi du ncn kinh te d trang thai nao di nua. chung ta van
co doanh lai du kien la 20.91%. Khong can phai tinh toan, ta co
the (hay dugc la trong truang hgp nay phuang sai cua doi mai
dau tu bang 0. Dieu nay rat quan trong cho vice bo tri mot danh
* ■» r t

muc dau tu sao cho co the loai bo dugc mot so rui ro nhat dinh.
Chung ta se ban ky van de nay d nhung phan sau.
/ r

2.4. Rui ro, doanh l<ri cd he thong va khong cd he ihong

O.2.4. J. Rid ro cd he thong va khong co he thong

Rui ro co he thdne la loai rui ro tac dorm den toan bo hoac
V -/ 1 * -* •
\ /

hau het cac tai san. Vi the ngudi ta con goi no la rui ro cua thi
/ f S

trudng. N hu chung ta da thay, su bap benh cua cac dieu kien

kinh te chung nhu viec giam GDP, tang lai suat tien vay, tang
toe do lam phat... la nhung thi du cho rui ro cd he thong. Nhung
\ r y f

dieu kien nay tac dong den hau het cac doanh nghiep.
r /

Rui ro khong cd he thong la loai rui ro chi tac dong den

mot tai san hoac mot nhom nho cac tai san. NghTa la, loai rui ro
•» f

nay chi lien quan tdi timg doanh nghiep cu the nao do. Vi the,
✓

ngudi ta con goi la rui ro dan nhat hay rui ro cho mot tai san cu
the. Chang han, su bai cong ciia cong nhan ( h a d e doanh nghiep
A se chi anh hudng den san xuat kinh d o a n h ciia doanh nghiep
A. ddi khi no cung anh hudng chut it den mdt vai doanh nghiep
khac dang cd mdt sd hap ddng mua ban vdi doanh nghiep nay.

157
Cac doanh nghiep khong co lien quan toi doanh nghiep A thi
hoan toan khonyO bi tac donu. <—

9.2.4.2. Cac thanh phan doanh lai co he thong \;a khong

co he thong
Khi ta dir kien doanh loi cho mot khoan dau tu nao do. Co
nhung khoan khong d u kien duac. Trong qua trinh thuc hien,
doanh lgi co the tang len giam di so vdi du kien. Neu ta ky hieu
phan tang len hoac giam di do la U, ta co the viet cong thuc tinh
doanh lgi nhu sau:
R = E(R) + U (9.11)
Trong do: R la doanh lgi dat dugc
E(R) la doanh lgi du kien
r

U la doanh lgi khong dir kien d ug c

N h u d phan tren, ta thay: co hai loai rui ro, rui ro co he
f / \

thong va rui ro khong co he thong. Phan doanh lgi khong du

kien dugc la do hai loai rui ro nay gay ra. Ta cung co the chia bo
phan doanh lgi khong du kien dugc thanh hai phan, phan thu
r \ f *

nhat la phan khong co he thong va do rui ro khon g co he thong

gay ra, ta ky hieu phan nay la s. Phan thu hai la phan co he
/ f t f

thong do rui ro co he thong gay ra va dugc ky hieu la ni- Den

day, ta co the viet cong thuc tinh doanh lgi dat d u g c la:

R = E(R) + U + m + 8 (9.12)
f

Viec phan chia hai bo phan doanh lgi khong d u kien dugc
thanh hai phan la rat quan trong. De thay dugc tai sao no quan
\ 1

trong, chung ta se nghien cuu d phan sau day noi ve rui ro cua
\

danh muc dau tu

158
 (K2.5. D a ila n g hoa va r u i ro cua danh m u c dau tu

fJ. 5. 1 Tac dong cua da dang hod

Klii ta co mot lugng tien nao do. neu ta dung toan bo so
tien de dau tu vao mot loai tai san thi muc do rui ro cao hon la
vice dau tu so tien nay vao nhieu tai san khac nhau.
Dc thay dugc moi quan he giua cach bo tri mot danh muc
dau tu va rui ro cua danh muc dau tu. cluing ta hay nghien ciru
bang sau day:
r > > >

Chung ta thay rang: Do lech chuan cho danh muc dau tu

co mot co phan la neu ta lira chon mot each ngau nhien mot loai
co phan cua mot doanh nghiep nao do va dau tu toan bo so tien
cua ta vao do thi do lech chuan cua doanh Igi se la 49,24% cho
* -V 1 \

mot num. Neu ta lua chon mot cach ngau nhien hai loai co phan
va dau tu vao moi loai mot nua so tien do thi do lech tieu chuan
binh quan se la 37,36%...
Dieu quan trong rut ra a day la: do lech tieu chuan giam
% '» \ r

khi ma so lugng cac loai co phan tang len. Neu ta lira chon mot
cach ngau nhien 100 loai co phan khac nhau thi do lech tieu
* \ t r

chuan binh quan cua danh muc dau tu se giam xuong 19,69%.
Neu ta lira chon mot cach ngau nhien 500 co phan khac nhau thi
A t 1 ' t

do lech tieu chuan binh quan se la 19,27%. Neu ta tiep tuc tang
t * \ ' /

them so lugng co phan cho danh muc dau tu cua ta thi ta thay
ket qua giam cua do lech tieu chuan rat nho hoac khong thay
doi.

159
 (1) (2) ~ ....... m ]I
So lugng cac co Do lech tieu chuan Ty le giira do lech ^
phan khac nhau cua binh quan cua doanh tieu chuan cua danh
mot danh muc dau lgi hang nam cua muc dau tu so vdi do
tu danh muc dau tu (%) lech tieu chuan cua
viec dau tu vao mot
co phan
I 49,24 1,00
2 37,36 0,76
4 29,69 0,60
6 26,64 0,54
8 24,98 0,51
10 23,93 0,49
20 21,68 0,44
30 20,87 0,42
40 20,46 0,42
50 20,20 0,41
100 19,69 0,40
200 19,42 0,39
300 19,34 0,39
400 19,29 0,39
500 19,27 0,39
1000 19,21 0,39

N guon: Tap ch i phan tich lucmg va tai chinh. 22/9/1987

0 A * X

so: 353-64, nhan de "Bao nhieu co p h a n se tao nen m ot danh

m uc dau tu da dang hod ”

160
 9 2.5.2. Nguyen Iv cua da dang hoa
Tir bang trcn ta co the ve dugc do thi sau day

danh muc dau tir

\ r ■
> \ '

Nhin vao do thi, ta thay co hai diem can luu y. T h u nhat,

/ r 1

mot so rui ro co lien quan den timg loai tai san co the bj loai tru
' r \ t
bang cach bo tri danh muc dau tu. Qua trinh bo tri danh muc
dau tu d u g c tien hanh bang cach dan trai viec dau tu nhieu loai
tai san khac nhau dugc goi la da dang hoa.
Nguyen ly cua da dang hoa chi cho chung ta rang: dan trai
vice dau tu vao nhieu loai tai san khac nhau se loai tru dugc mot
so rui ro. Phan dien f,'ch tren hinh ve ky hieu "rui ro co the loai
' *
tru bang da dang hoa" chinh la bo phan rui ro co the loai tru
thong qua da dang hoa.
•> / ' , .X
Diem thu hai cGng rat quan trong. Se co mot muc toi thieu

I6l
cua rui ro ma ta khong the loai u u nu k u w \ ic< da o a rc ia a.
Muc toi thieu na\ u uefc the ii»en tt en hmn ve v$.tt- k\ hien rm io
khong the loai tru bang da dang hoa”. !!ai diem na\‘ oho ta ket
luan rang: da dang hoa co the ! u:i giam rui ro, nlium1 vice
nay chi co the dat den mot diem nhat dinh chu* khong the gir.m
mai.
9.2. 5 3. Do Jan? hod n d ro khans co he (homr
Iren da> chung ta a';- - hang djnh: mot so rui ro co the loai
trur bang da dang hoa mot so nil ro khac thi khong the loai a ir
dirge theo cach nay. Sc co mot cau hot la: ta> -sao lai nhu vay?
Chiing ta hay nho la; jvutn truoc day noi ve rui ro co he th in g
va rui ro khong co he t l x v Theo dinh nghTa. rui ro khong c«>
he thong la mi ro chi lien quan den mot vai tai san. Chang han,
neu ta xem \ e t mot loai co phan cua mot doanh nghiep nao Jo.
du an ve che tao san pham mdi hoac su tiet kiem do cai tien quy
trinh cong nghe co die mang ia' g:a trj thuan tuy duong va do do
co the lam tang gia tri co phan cua doanh nghiep. Ngirgc lai, ncn
\ \ '

doanh nghiep pham phap \ a phai den bu bang mot lugng tien
£ / /
dang ke, hoac do sir co bat r.gd gay thiet hai cho doanh nghiep.
hoac do bai cong cua cong nhan trong doanh nghiep v.v... co thi:
t 1 %

dan den giam gia tri cd phan ciia doanh nghiep.

r ■> * \ r %

Den day ta cd the nhan rhiiy rang: neu ta chi dau tu \a o

mot loai co phan ciia mot doanh nghiep nao do thi nghTa la ket
\ f \

qua dau tu ciia ta phu thuoc rat nhieu vao nhirng sir kien xin ra
doi vdi doanh nghiep. Neu ta dau tir vao nhieu loai tai sail d
nhieu doanh nghiep khac nhau thi sir phu thuoc nay giam di
nhieu. bdi vi neu chang ma> ta bi io d doanh nghiep nay thi ta
van co lai d doanh nghiep khac. Viec bu trtr do se lam cho rin ro

162
cua danh muc dau tu giam di
Nlnr vay, rui ro khong co lie tht.n; st; ],j loai trir thong qua
vict: da dang hoa. Vi vav, mot danh muc d.iu tu vdi so lugng ldn
cac tai san khac nhau co the dan den mot dieu la:rui ro khong
co lie thong ciia no bang 0. Tren thuc tc, khai niem "co the da
dang lu>a" va khai niem "rui to khong co he thong" co the sir
dung thay the cho nhau.
r

9.2.5.4. Da dang hod va rui ro co he lhong

Rui ro co he thong khong the loai trir bang cach da dang
/ 9 r

hoa bdi vi theo dinh nghTa. riii ro co he thong lac dong den tat ca
c;ic loai tai san khac nhau. Vi le do. cho du ta co tdi bao nhieu
loai tai san khac nhau trong mot danh muc dau tu di nira thi
cung khong loai trir dugc rui ro co he thong. Vi vay, tren thuc
te, khai niem "khong the da dang hoa" va khai niem "rui ro co
t f f

he thong" co the sir dung thay the cho nhau.

9.2.6. Rui ro co he thong va he so beta

• o *

Trong muc nay ta se nghien curu de tra ldi cau hoi: cai gi
quyet djnh mire bii dap rui ro cho mot tai san co rui ro? hay noi
mot each khac: tai sao muc bii dap rui ro cua tai san nay lai cao
*

h<m muc bii dap rui ro cua tai san khac0 Viec tra ldi cau hoi nay
f /

chit yeu dua vao su khac biet giira rui ro co he thong va rui ro
khong co he thong.
9.2.6.1. Nguyen ly cua rui ro co he thong
r t \ n f /

Den day ta da nhan thay rang: tony so rui ro lien quan den
* r

mot tai san bao gom i.n' bo phan: riii ro co he thong va rui ro
khong co he thong. Chung ta cung da nhan thirc dugc la: rui ro
khong co he thong co the bi loai trir thong qua viec da dang hoa.

163
N gugc lai, chung ta khong the loai trir dtroc rui ro c o lie th.V.g
bang cach da dang boa.
Dua Iren ca so nghien cuu trcn, chung ta thay: can phai
xae dinh chinh xae rui ro co nghTa la gi? Nguyen ly cua rui ro co
he thong da chi ra rang: phan tlurdng trao cho viec chi a dung rui
ro chi phu thuoc vao rui ro co he thong cua khoan dau tu. Rui t o
khong co he thong co the loai trir thong qua viec da dang hoa
ma khong can co chi phi, vi vay se khong co phan tlurong cho
loai rui ro nay. Hay noi mot each khac, thi tru an g se khong den
bit cho loai rui ro khong can thiet phai sinh ra.
Nguyen ly cua rui ro co he thong khang dinh: doanh lgi
du kien cho mot tai san eh; phu thuoc vao rui ro t o he thong.
NghTa la, chi rieng rui ro co he thong la loai riii ro eo lien quan
den viec quyet dinh mux doanh lgi du kien va m uc bu dap nil ro
cua mot tai san.
9.2.6.2. Do lu('mg riii ro co he thong
/ / t t t

Rui ro co he thong la mot trong nhung yeu to quyet dinh

r / X ■ •

muc doanh lgi du kien cua mot tai san, vi the chung ta can biet
cach do muc do rui ro cua he thong cho cac khoan dau tu khac
■* / /

nhau. De do muc do rui ro co he thong, chung ta sir dung he so

r f f

beta (P). He so P cho ta biet mire rui ro co lie thong cua mot tiii
1 f

san cu the so vcri mire rui ro co he thong binh quan cua mot tai
san la bao nhieu. Theo djnh nghTa nay, mot tai san nao do eo P -
0,5 thi co nghTa la: muc rui ro co he thong cua tai sari bang mol
nira so vai m uc riii ro binh quan cho mot tai san, neu mot tat san
co p = 2 thi co nghTa la: muc rui ro co he thong ciia tai san nay
bang hai lan so vai mire rui ro binh quan cho mot tai san v.v...

iM
 () _?.6.3. HeTu cua danli muc ihiu nr

Thi du 12:
Gia sir fa co thdm* tin ve mot so chtrne khoan cua cac
c ..- •

doanh nghiep khac nhau vdi cac he so beta the hien d bang sau

i n) (2 )
Co p h a n ciia cac: d o a n h n g h i e p H e so p
H
j D oanh nghiep K 0,75

D o a n h nghiep M 0,70

D oanh nghiep L 1.05

I
D oanh nghiep O 0,99
i
D oanh nghiep P 1,01

D o a n h nghiep Q 0,64

D o an h nghiep R 1,16

D oan h nghiep S 1,42

' * f
Beta cua danh muc dau tu cd the dugc tinh toan giong nhu
/ \ f

tinh toan doanh Igi dir kien cua danh muc dau tu. Theo so lieu a
t \ \ r

bang tren, gia sir ta co mot sd tien nao do, ta dau tu mot nua sd
tien vao cd phan cua doanh nghiep O va mot nua con lai dugc
dau tu vao doanh nghiep R. Vay P cua danh muc dau tu la bao
nhieu?
p P = 0,50 x Po + 0,50 x P r —0,50 x 0,99 + 0,50 x 1,16 = 1,075
Tronu do:
Pp la beta cua danh muc dau tu
* X '
Po la beta ciia co phan dau tu vao doanh nghiep O
Pi< la beta cua co phan dau tu vao doanh nghiep R

165
 0,50 la trong so cua danh muc dau tu
N o i chung. de tin h j' cho mot danh muc dau tir, ta lay urng
/ i

trong so cua cianh muc dau Ur nhan vdi [5 tuong irng \ di tai san
do. Sau cung ta cong tat ca cac tich so do lai. ta sc co [> cua cianh
muc dau Ur.

9.2. 7. Du &ng thi tru ting chung khoan

Trong phan nay chung ta hay xcm xet rui ro sc dugc den
trcn thi truant: nhu the nao?
♦ w

9.2. 7.1. Beta va m uc hit dap rui ro

Thi du 13
Gia sir rang: tai san A co thu nhap du kien h(R.\) - 20%
va P a = 1,6. Tv suat khong co riii ro Rf =8%. Luu y rang tai san
khong co riii ro la tai san khong co riii ro co he thong (tham chi
khong co ca riii ro khong co he thong), vi vay tai san khong co
riii ro se co p = 0.
f * \ \

Neu ta bo tri mot danh muc dau tir gom co tai san A va tai
san khong co rui ro, ta co the tinh toan dugc mot vai phirang an
doanh lgi dir kien khac nhau va cac he so P khac nhau. Chang
r y *

han neu ta dau tu 25% vao tai san A thi thu nhap dir kien se la:
E(RP) = 0,25 x E (R a ) + (1-0,25)xR f = 0,25 x 20% + 0,75 x
8 % = 11%

Tuang tu, p cua danh muc dau tu se la:

p P = 0,25 x p A + (1 - 0,25) x 0 = 0,25 x 1,6 = 0,4

Liru y rang: tong cac trong so ciia mot doi mdi dau tir bao
gid cung bang 1. Do vay, trong danh muc dau tir nay. 25% dau
tu vao tai san A thi co nghTa ia 0,75% se dugc dfiu tir vao tai san

166
khong cd rui ro.
f'd moi dieu nhan van la: lieu t\ ie
i •
tir vao tai san A co
kha nang v ira l qua 100% hay k h d in fa t: tra Idi d day la co.
Dieu nay cd the xay ra vdi nha dau tir khi ma anh ta di vay tien
tai tv suat khonu cd rui ro ! h i du. nha d a u t u cd lOOdv, anh ta
di vay them 50dv nira tai lai suat X% la ty suat khong co rui ro.
\ \ / f
Hay cd the noi nha dau tu nay da dau tu 150% von so vdi von
rieng cua anh ta Trong trudng hop nay thu nhap du kien se la:
E(Rp) - 1,50 x E(RA) ^ (1-1,50) x Rf - 1,50 x 20% - 0,50
x 8% - 26%
He so p ciia danh muc dau tu se hi:

P, - 1,50 x p A + (1 - 1,50) x 0 = 1,50 x 1,6 = 2,4

T u ang tu nhu vay, ta co the tinh toan duac mot so phuang
an khac biet va ta liet ke d bansj sau day: \D J

1
T r o n g so ciia tai san D o a n h loi d u kien Beta cua d a n h m uc
A trong danh muc c u a d a n h m u c d a u tir 1 d a u tir
dau tu E ( R p)

0% 8% 0,0

2.5% 11% 0,4

50% 14% 0,8

75% 17% 1,2

100% 20% 1,6

125% — .'
•
/U 2,0

150% 26% 2,4

..................... - ____ j L
* \ * r

Dua vao bang tren, ta co theve duac do thi bieu thj moi
r \ /

quan he giua thu nhap dir kien ciia danh inuc dau tu va he so
beta ciia tai san A nhu sau:

167
 Do thi 2

E(R,>)|

E(Ra) =

7,50%

Ef - 8%

Pr = 1 , 6
(3
* x f r * % •X \
Nhin vao do thi tren ta thay neu ta di chuyen tu diem ma
tai san A khong co rui ro vai p A - 1,6 thi dong thai vai viec tang
r \ ^
beta, doanh lai dir kien cho danh muc dau tu thi cung tang tir
8% len 20%.
N h u ta da biSt, E(RA) - Rr = 2 0% - 8% = 12%, dugc goi la
9 1 '

muc bu dap rui ro cua tai san A. Ta co the tinh duac do doc cua
•s \ f /

duorng thang nay bang cach lay m uc bu dap rui ro cua tai san A
f

chia cho he so P cua no.

Do d6c _ E(Ra) - Rf _ 20% - 8% _
(9 .1 3 )
(tai san A) pA _ 1,6 0
r y \ \

Do doc noi len rang: tai san A de nghj dugc den bu rui ro
r 0
voi ty suat 7,50%. Noi mot cach khac, tai san A co muc bii dap
f

rui ro la 7,50% cho mot dv riii ro co he thong.

Thi du 14:
Ta gia dinh la co mot tai san khac, tai san B. Tai san nay

168
c o [3 = 1,2 va doanh lgi dir kien la 16%. Vay dau tu vao tai san
n.ao thi tot han? Tai san A hay tai san B? Thuc su la rat kho tra
len. Mot so ngudi thich dau tu vao tai san A con mot so ngudi
klhac lai dau tu vao tai san B. Tuy nhien, de co the tra ldi dugc
' \ ^ t

ramg nen dau tu vao tai san nao, ta can xae dinh them mot so
thiong tin ve tai san B thong qua viec tinh toan sau day: Cung
f t f

la.m giong nhu doi vdi tai san A d tren. Ta tinh toan mot so
r

p h u a n g an tuang hgp giua thu nhap du kien va (3 cua danh muc

'% ' * *
ddu tu gorn tai san B va tai san khong co rui ro. Chang han, neu
ta dau tu 25% so tien vao tai san B thi co nghTa la 75% so tien
c o n lai se dugc dau tu vao tai san khong co rui ro. Doanh lgi du
ki en ciia danh muc dau tu se la:
0,25 x E(Rb) + 0,75 x Rf = 0,25 x 16% + 0,75 x 8% =
10%
T u a n g tu, p ciia danh muc dau tu P p se la:
p P = 0,25 x p B + 0,75 x 0 = 0,25 x 1,2 = 0,30
T u a n g tu lam n h u vay ta se co bang sau day:
t
i T r o n g so ciia tai s a n D o a n h lgi d u kien B e t a ciia d a n h m u c
%

B trong danh m uc ciia d a n h muc dau tu d a u t u ( P p)

>

d a u tu E ( R p)

0% 8% 0,0

25% 10% 0,3

50% 12% 0,6

75% 14% 0 ,9

100% 16% 1,2

125% 18% 1,5

150% 20% 1,8

169
 H(Rjf) - R; 16% -8% .
Do doc = —t )------ ----- r r 6.67 o

Tir bang tren, ta co the ve duoc do thi sau day:

Do thi 3

1 > t

Dira tren cac thong tin tren day ta co the noi rang: dau tur
vao tai san A tot hem la dau tu vao tai san B, boi vi tai san B de
nghi m u c bu dap cho rui ro khong du cho mire rui ro co lie
r / i /

thong cua no neu ta so voi tai san A. De thay ro hem, ta hay so

sanh tai san A va tai san B t^en cung mot do thi sau day:

170
 0 6 (hi 4

> f * f

Nhin vao do thi tren ta nhan thay: duong bieu thi sir ket
/ \

hop giua doanh loi du kien va p cua tai san A nam cao hon so
1 ■» /

voi dudng thang bieu thi doanh loi du kien va P cua tai san B.
Dieu nay co the nhan biet de dang ngay ca trong trudng hop
khong co do thi thong qua su khac biet ve do doc cua hai dudng
thfing nay (7m50% > 6,67%). Su khac biet nay chi cho ta biet
rang: vai bat ky muc rui ro co he thong nao cho truac (ducrc do
*

bang P) thi tai san A cung co muc doanh loi cao hon so vdi tai
san B. Nhin vao do thi, gia su p = 1,2 ta co:

E ( R b) = 16%

Trong khi do: E(RA) = 16% = ?*R

* \

Vdi nhan xet nhu tren, chung ta co the goi y cho nha dau
\ %
tu rang: anh ta nen dau tu vao tai san A.

171
 Tuy nhien, tinh trang cua tai san A va tai san B nhu da
rnieu ta tren day khong the keo dai mai tren thi truang von. Bai
vi cac nha dau tir do xo dau tu vao tai san A va hau nlur khon<j
co ai dau tir vao tai san B nen se xay ra mot dieu rang: gia cua
tai san A se tang len va gia cua tai san B se bi ha thap. Nlur ta da
biet, gia cua tai san va doanh loi du kien cua no van dong nguoc
chieu nhau, do vay doanh loi cua tai san A se giam di va doanh
loi cua tai san B se tang len. Viec mua va ban hai loai tai san
nay tiep tiic dicn ra cho den khi ca hai tai san nay cung nam trcn
* _ %

mot duong thang. Dieu do co nghTa la: ca hai loai tai san nay
' \ N o

cung de nghj mot muc den bu ve sir chiu dung rui ro. Noi mot
cach khac, tren thi truo nc canh tranh ta co:
E(R a) - Rf = E(R b) - Rf
Pa ' Ph 1 j
Day la moi quan he co ban giira riii ro va doanh lgi. Tren
f *

day ta lay hai tai san de lam vi du, cach lap luan ciia chung ta co
■» *
the m o rong cho nhieu loai tai san khac nhau tuang tu n h u cach
lam tren. Tren thuc te, du co bao nhieu tai san di nira thi cac tai
san nay cung phai van dong theo h u a n g la cimg co mot ty suat
0 * ' X
bii dap rui ro. Gia sir tai san nay co mire rui ro co he thong gap
/ /

doi tai san khac thi mire bu dap riii ro cho tai san nay nhat dinh
phai gap doi so vai cac tai san khac. Do cac tai san tren thi
/ t % ^ f

truang phai co cung ty suat bii dap rui ro nen chung ta phai
1 > ■»

dugc ve tren cung mot d u a n g thang. Dieu nay co the d u a c minh

\ A

hoa bang do thj sau:

172
 Pa Pb Pc Pd
Pi

N h u da chi ra tren do thi, tai san A va tai san B dugc ve

/ i r \

true tiep tren duong thang, vi vay chung co ty suat den bu rui ro
r \ J

nhu nhau. Neu co mot tai san nao do nam phai tren duong thang
f

nay, thi du nhu tai san C, thi gia cua tai san C nhat dinh se tang
/ f S

len va doanh Igi d u kien cua no se giam cho den khi nam vao
* ’ ' '
duong thang. Tuong tu nhu vay, neu co mot tai san nao do nam
phia duoi duong thang nay, thi du nhu tai san D, thi gia cua no
* t

nhat dinh se giam di va doanh Igi du kien cua no se tang len cho
f m % * *
den khi nam vao dudng thang. Tren thi trudng von, hien tugng
nhu tai san C dugc goi la gia ca cao hon gia tri cua no. Con hien
tugng nhu tai san D thi dugc goi la gia ca thap hon gia trj cua
•> f * f

no. Day la quan diem rat quan trong de kiem nghiem cac thi
trirdng tai chi'nh.

173
 9.2. 7.2. Du ('mg thi truong chung khoan
D uong thang sc duoc ve nhu tren cho moi tai san thi
truong tai chinh la rat quan trong. D u on g thang the hien moi
quan he giua rui ro co he thong va doanh loi du kien duoc goi la
dudng thi trudng chung khoan (SML). Trong tai chinh doanh
nghiep, quan diem ve gia trj hien tai thuan (NPV) duoc coi la
/ /

quan trong nhat, ke theo do la dudng SML.

* \

Do SM L co tarn quan trong nhu vay, nen chung ta can tim

t r t

cach de biet duoc phuong trinh cua no. Gia su ta bo tri mot
danh muc dau tu vdi toan bo cac loai tai san cua thi trudng. Mot
\ \
danh muc dau tu nhu vay duoc goi la danh muc dau tu cua thi
f r

trudng. Doanh loi du kien duoc viet la E (R m ).

Do tat ca cac tai san tren thi trudng phai duoc ve tren
r x

dudng SML, vi the danh muc dau tu cua thi trudng phai bao
\ r * •»

gom tat ca cac tai san do. De xac dinh xem co the ve d u dn g
/ t X

SM L n h u the nao, trudc het ta can phai xac djnh cho cho dugc
* \

he so P cho danh muc dau tu cua thi trudng (Pm)- Do danh muc
dau tu nay dai dien nay dai dien cho tat ca cac tai san tren thi
* f \ \

trudng, nen chac chan rang: danh muc dau tu nay co muc rui ro
f f

binh quan co he thong, hay noi mot cach khac, Pm = 1. Den day
1 / /

ta co the viet dugc do doc cua dudng SML nhu sau:

Ddddc _ E(Rm)_: R f _ E(R m) - A f _ FrR , R ,Q l 5 .

ciia S M L " pM " l " E(Rm) ' Rf (9’l5 )
/

E(R m) - Rf dugc ggi la muc bii dap rui ro cua thi trudng
* ' ' ,
bdi vi no la mire bii dap riii ro cho danh muc dau tu ciia tin
trudng.
Gia su ta goi E ( R j ) va p, la doanh Igi du kien va beta ciia
mot danh muc dau tu bat ky nao do tren thi trudng. Ta biet rang

174
danh muc dau tir nay phai dugc vc trcn d rd-ng SML vi no phai
co i;unc ty suat den bu rui ro uioim nlur cac ’.ai san khac tren thi
ti u<mg. Vay ta co the viet:
E (R ,) - R f _ r o x o
n ~ E ( R m ) - Rf
Pi
Nc;u vidt lai, ta se co: E(R,) = R f + p, [E(RM) - R f] (9.16)
/ f t

Cong thuc tren dugc goi la mo hinh gia tai san von viet tat
la CAPM.
% r

CAPM chi ra rang: doanh lgi du kien cua mot tai san cu
\ 9 9
the nao do phu thuoc vao ba yeu to:
Yeu to thu nhat, do la gia tri thai gian thuan tuy cua tien
\ t ^ f \

dirge do bang ty suat khong co rui ro (Rf), ty suat nay dan thuan
' .' ' '
chi den bu cho sir cho dgi tien cua nha dau tu va khong he co rui
ro.
r * \ f

Yeu to thu hai, la sir den bii cho riii ro co he thong dugc
d<> bang mire riii ro cua thi truang [E(RM) - Rf].
t r f \

Yeu to thir ba, la mire riii ro co he thong dugc do bang Pi,

r *

day la mire rui ro co he thong cho timg tai san cu the.

9-2.73. M oi lien he giira duong thi truang chung khoan
t

va chi p h i cua von

\

Duong thj truang chimg khoan chi cho chung ta mire den
/ %

bii rui ro tren thi truang tai chinh. Bat ky mot khoan dau tu mdi
/ / \

nao cung doi bai mot mire doanh lgi du kiC'n it nhat la bang muc
' r r m

den bu cua thi truang. Neu khong dat den muc do thi nguoi ta
y A /

se khong dau tu. Cac nha dau tu chi thuc sir co lgi neu ho tim
dugc cac khoan dau tu ma mire doanh lgi dir kien ciia chung cao
han mire de nghi ciia thi trudng, bai vi nhung khoan dau tu nhu

175
vay sc co gia tri hien tai thuan duong. I ren co so nhan thu: nh;u
vay, neu ta hoi: ty suat chiet khau de xac dinh gia tri hien tai lia
gi? thi cau tra loi se la: ta nen chon doanh loi dir kien n a thi
truong de nghi cho khoan dau tu voi cung mot muc do rui ro c o
he thong. Noi mot each khac, de xac dinh xem khoan dau tu cuia
ta co gia tri hien tai d u o n g hay khong thi ta can phai so sanh thiu
f \ *

nhap du kien ma thi truong de nghi cho khoan dau tu co ciinig

f t

mire rui ro co he thong (tuc la co cung he so P).

r t f ' * x * n

Ty suat chiet khau bieu thi bang muc doanh loi toi thie-u
\ /
can dat duoc thuong du gc goi la chi phi cua von cho met khoatn
\ f ____ * f

dau tu nhat dinh. Ta goi la chi phi von bdi vi: neu dat duoc mure
r 1 /

doanh loi toi thieu nay thi ta moi dat diem hoa von. Chi phi cuia
/ '
von con duoc coi n h u la chi phi co hoi cho khoan dan tu cuia
doanh nghiep.
' ' .r
Khi ta noi rang khoan dau tu moi co doanh loi d u cien lom
hon muc doanh loi ma thi trudng den bii cho khoan diu tu c:o
cung mire do rui ro co he thong thi co nghia la chung ta dang s:u
f \

dung mot cach co hieu qua von dau tu.

176
 C h iM n g 10
RUI RO KINH DOANH
VA DON BAY HOAT D O N G

10.1. Moi quan he giua loi nhuan va chi phi

\ / r

Lgi nhuan cua cong ty co nguon goc chu yeu tir hoat dong
ban hang hoa hoac cung cap dich vu cho khach hang. Khi doanh
so ban hang thay doi se dan den thay doi ve lgi nhuan. Doi vdi
i > f

quan ly,anh hudng cua thay doi ve doanh so tacdong lgi nhuan
r \ r

la quan trong, dac biet trong viec ra quyet dinh ve chien luge,
/ / ____ /

hay cac quyet dinh phuang an san xuat kinh doanh. The nhung
j r t *

lgi nhuan se thay doi nhu the nao khi doanh so thay doi?
\

Theo dinh nghTa, lgi nhuan cua mot cong ty la phan con
f f

lai cua doanh thu ban hang sau khi bu dap tat ca cac chi phi hoat
dong. Chi phi hoat dong cua mot cong ty thuong phat sinh dudi
f 1 f

dang chi phi bien doi hoac chi phi co dinh.

f -* ■*

Chi phi bien doi co xu hudng thay doi cung vdi mire do
hoat dong, trong khi do chi phi co dinh dugc xem nhu khong
doi muc do hoat dong thay doi.
t t * /

C a cau chi phi bien doi va chi phi co dinh phu thuoc chu
yeu vao loai hinh kinh doanh. Chang han, doi vdi mot hang
hang khong thi chi phi co dinh bao gid cung chiem mot ty trong
Idn trong tong chi phi hoat dong; du dong khach hay vang khach

177
thi hang hang khong van phai tra chi phi san bay, tra luvng chu
doi bay va van phai mua nhien lieu - chi phi nhien lieu tu rd n g
•khong khac nhau lam cho du may bay co cho mot hay mo t ram
hanh khach.
f •* n f

Chi phi bien ddi - la chi phi thay doi khi khoi luon; h;atih
khach thay doi, chang han chi phi cho xuat an cua hanh chiach
t f f ^

tren mot chuyen bay - thuong rat nho neu so sanh voi chi )h i co
dinh, chang han nhu chi phi ve nhien lieu.
Doi voi linh vuc khach san, chi phi ve dich vu buons, b a n ,
*» X f t

bar la cac vi du dien hinh ve chi phi bien doi. Chung ;o xu

1 / / % f

hucmg thay doi cung voi so lugng khach den khach san. I hu so
luong khach tang thi cac chi phi do se tang va ngugc lai cic chi
phi do se giam di khi so luong khach nghi giam. Trai lai c>c chi
f \ ^
phi nhu khau hao, tien lucmg nhan vien thi van phat sinh h;ang
r

ngay cho du luong khach co cao hay thap.

10.2. Don bay h o a t dong

Thong thuong thi khi doanh so ban hang thay doi tri kri
*
nhuan cua cong ty cung thay doi theo, nhung khong pha buen
% %
dong ve loi nhuan cua cac cong ty deu nhu nhau ma cac cing* ty
/

khac nhau se co m uc bien dong khac nhau, phu thuoc vio co

cau chi phi hoat dong cua cong ty.
Gia sir co hai cong ty A va B voi ket qua hoat donj mhu
sau:

178
 Dan vi: nghin dong

Cong ty A Cong ty B
f » -> A A

Tony so % Tong so %
Do;m h :hu 100.000 100% 100.000 100%
Chi p hi bien doi 60.000 60% 30.000 30%
Lai g<6p 40.000 40% 70.000 70%
Chi pihi'co dinh 30.000 60.000
Lgi n huan 10.000 10.000
% *

Ca hai cong ty A va B deu co doanh thu, tong chi phi va

9 \ t

lgi nShuan giong nhau, chi khac mot dieu la co ca cau chi phi
r ^ f 7

khac nhau. Ty trong chi phi co djnh so vai chi phi bien doi cua
cong t) B la 2:1 (60.000/30.000), trong khi do d cong ty A ty le
do la 1 2 (30.000/60.000)
Cia sir doanh thu cua ca hai cong ty deu tang 10%
Dan vj: nghin dong

Cong ty A Cong ty B
♦ / » f
r p a a

Tong so % Tong so %
Doanh t.iu 110.000 100% 110.000 100%
Chi ph' bien 66.000 60% 33.000 30%
doi
Lai gc>p 44.000 40% 77.000 70%
Chi phi ;o dinh 30.000 60.000
Lgi nhuin 14.000 17.000
Khi doanh thu tang 10% thi lgi nhuan cua ca hai cong ty
deu t;arg nhung muc do tang khac nhau. Khi doanh thu tang
10% bi nhuan cua cong ty B tang 70% (17.000 -
10.()0>0)' 10.000 trong khi muc tang lgi nhuan cua cong ty A chi

179
la 40. Sa di lai nhuan cua cong ty B tang nhanh han so vdi cong
ty A khi doanh so tang la vi trong co cau chi phi, chi phi cd dinh
cua cong ty B chiem ty trong ldn hon so vdi chi phi bien doi.
Khi xet moi quan he giua thay doi cua Igi nhuan va thay
doi cua doanh thu thi ty trong cua chi phi co dinh trong tong chi
phi hoat dong dong vai tro "don bay" - quyet dinh toe do thay
doi cua Igi nhuan thay doi cao hay thap khi doanh thu thay doi.
i f

Khai niem "don bay hoat dong" (operating leverage) xuat hien
/ *

khi cong ty co phat sinh cac chi phi hoat dong co dinh chang
han n h u chi phi thue nha, chi phi lucmg quan ly va cac chi phi
t

khac co tinh chat tuang tu.

10.3. Rui ro hoat dong

Trong vi du tren, khi doanh so tang 10% thi Igi nhuan cua
cong ty B tang 70%, ldn hon nhieu so vdi muc tang Igi nhuan
cua cong ty A - chi 40% vdi cung muc tang doanh so 10%.
Phai chang vdi co cau chi phi ma trong do ty trong chi phi

180
cu d.nh ldn han so vai chi phi bien doi thi cong ty B co lai han?
tjia sir, doanh thu ciia ca hai cong ty cung giam 10% thi bien
di>ni< cua lai nhuan ciia hai cong ty se nlur sau:
I )<m vi: Nghin dong

Cong ty A ! Cong ty B
.

Tong so % Ton <4 so %

Doanh thu 90.000 100% 90.000 100 %

Clu phi bien doi 54.000 60% 27.000 30%

Lai gop 36.000 40% 63.000 70%
Chi phi co djnh 30.000 60.000
Lgi nhuan 6.000 3.000
Khi doanh so giam thi lgi nhuan ciia ca hai cong ty deu
giam, tuy nhien mire giam ciia ciia B la 70% (3.000 -
10.000)/10.000 lan hon so vdi mire giam lgi nhuan cua cong ty
i ■* r > r

chi co 40%. O day co the nhan thay rang vdi ca cau chi phi ma
r r v

ty trong chi phi co dinh ldn (so vdi chi phi bien doi) thi khi
doanh thu tang lgi nhuan cung tang nhanh han, nhung ngugc
lai, neu doanh thu giam thi lgi nhuan cua cong ty cung giam
/ \ f

nhanh han - uu the luc nay lai trd thanh dieu bat lgi.
' /

Vdi cong ty co ca cau chi phi ma ty trong chi phi co dinh

/ ^

cang ldn (so vdi chi phi bien doi) nhu cong ty B trong vi du tren
thi muc do bien dong cua In cang ldn khi doanh thu thay doi va
nhu vay riii ro hoat dong ldn han.
Rui ro hoat dong la rui ro phat sinh va gan lien vdi mot ca
cau chi phi bao gom chi phi eo djnh va chi phi bien doi. Chi phi
co dinh cang ldn (so vdi chi phi bien doi) thi rui ro hoat dong
cang cao va nhu vay thi riii ro chung ciia cong ty cung cao han.

181
 Nhir vay, khai niem don ! hoat dong phan anh mire do
nhay cam cua lai nhuan cua c-V.g ty khi doanh thu bien dong.
Vai moi c a cau chi phi khac au, mire do nhay cam cua Igi
nhuan bien doi vai bien dong cua doanh thu cung rat khac nhau.
H an nua, mire do nhay cam do cung rat khac nhau tai cac khoi
lugng ban hang khac nhau.
Trong quan ly de xac dinh mire do nhay cam cua Igi
9 . . 9 f

nhuan doi vai bien dong ciia doanh thu, nguai ta sir dung He so
7 t ^

don bay - DOL (Degree o f Operating Leverage). He so don bay

f \ >

hoat dong la ty so giua ty le phan tram thay doi cua Igi nhuan
x • #

hoat dong (operating income) va ty le phan tram thay doi cua

/

doanh so ban hang.

Ty le (%) thay ddi cua Igi nhuan hoat dong
DOL j* c^ a han g

Vi du ve tinh roan he so don bay hoat dong (DOL)

Gia sir ta co thong tin ve hoat dong cua mot cong ty nhu
sa u 1:
• Gia ban mot d an vi san pham 30.000 dong
f t ^ ^

• Chi phi bien doi eua mot dan vi san pham 20.000 dong

• Tong chi phi co dinh 5.000.000 dong

/ *>

• Khoi lugng ban hang hien tai la 1.000 san pham

r

Trir&ng hap th u nhat

* 4

Hay xem Igi nhuan hoat dong eua cong ty se thay doi nhu
the nao khi khoi lugng ban hang tang tir 1.000 san pham len

1 T rong cac vi du, de dom gian ta gia djnh gia ban ciia mot d a n vi vs chi
phi bien doi cho mot d a n vj khong gitr nguyen khi khoi lugng ban hang !hay
doi

182
1,'iO'j .van pham.
)cm vi: Nghin dong

1.000 san p h a m 1.500 san p h a m

D o a n h th u b a n h a n g 30.000 45.000

T r i r d i : C h i phi b ie n doi 20.000 30.000

C h i phi co d in h 5 .0 0 0 5.000
■

j Loi nhuan hoat dong 5 .0 0 0 S 10.000

Khi doanh thu ban hang tang 50% (45 trieu - 30 trieu)/30
trieu. thi loi nhuan hoat dong tang 100% (10 trieu - 5 trieu)/ 5
trieu.
t ^ f

He so don bay hoat dong (DOL) tai khoi luong ban hang
1.000 san pham la:
_ Ty le (%) thay doi cua lai nhuan hoat dong
J0 •ooosp jy jg ^o/Q^ thay doi eua doanh so ban hang

100%
= 2
50%
He so don bay hoat dong DOL bang 2 co nghTa la neu
/ i

doanh so ban hang thay doi 1% thi Igi nhuan hoat dong se thay
doi 2%.
Gia su cung cong ty do nhirng trong truong hgp nay quan
f t + t

ly quyet dinh tang ty le chi phi bien doi so vai chi co dinh trong
1 < r \ f

tong chi phi hoat dong bang cach thay the mot phan chi phi co
dinh bang chi phi bien doi.
Trudng h(/p thu' hai:
Vdi quyet dinh tren tinh hoat dong ciia cong ty nhu sau:
• Gia ban mot don vj san pham 30.000 dong

183
 • Chi phi bien doi cua mot don vi san pham 24.00 d o n g
• Tong chi phi co dinh 1.000.000 dong
y 9
Luc nay tong chi phi co dinh ciia cong ty giam tir
5.000.000 xuong con 1.000.000, trong khi do chi phibien doi
cho mot don vi san pham tang them 4.000 dong, tir 20.00 dong
len den 24.000 dong cho mot dan vi san pham.
Neu khoi luong ban tang 50%, tir 1.000 san n a m len
* 9

1.500 san pham thi ket qua se ra sao?

Dan vi: N p in dong

1.000 san pham 1.500 sa plnam

Doanh thu ban hang 30.000 45.00
Trir di: Chi phi bien doi 24.000 36.00
Chi phi co dinh 1.000 1.00
Lgi nhuan hoat dong 5.000 8.00
Khi doanh so ban hang tang 50%, thi lai nhuan bait dong
^ 8 trieu - 5 trieu
I5"g 6 0 % ---------5 trieu '

60%
D O L iooosp - 5 qo/ 0 “ 1 ,2

He so don bay hoat dong bang 1,2 co nghTa la ciil°//o thay

doi cua doanh so ban hang se lam cho lgi nhuan hoat onig thay
doi 1,2%.
’ r ' '
Qua hai vi du tren, co the thay rang khi ty trong oi phi co
, 9 ■%

dinh trong tong chi phi hoat dong giam so voi chi phbicen doi
thi don bay hoat dong cung giam theo, dong thdi ri rco hoat
dong cung giam di.

184
 Mire do nhay cam cua loi nhuan hop dong doi vai bien
dong cua doanh thu phan anh muc do rui ro heat dong ciia cong
ty va dirac xac dinh ban 12 he so don bav heat dorm. Rui to hoat
dong cua cong ty. nlnr ta da biet, phat sinh do noi quan he gifra
yeu to nhu chi phi co dinh, chi phi bien doi va >ioanh thu tai mot
r f ■» r
khoi lucmg ban hang nhat dinh. Vi vay ta co the xac dinh he so
O w 1 • J •

don bay hoat dong tai mot khoi luong ban hang nhat dinh khong
dua vao quan he cua cac yeu to tren.
Goi:
P la gia ban mot dan vi san pham
VC la chi phi bien doi cua mot dan vi san pham
FC la tong chi phi co dinh
Qo la khoi lugng ban hang tai thai diem hien tai
r y f
He so don bay hoat dong tai khoi lugng ban hang Qo dugc
tinh nhu sau:

D O IO = - Qo (P - VC)
UUL^o Qo (p . VC) . FC

Ap dung cong thirc nay vao vi du tren. trong truong hgp

/ f y t
thir nhat ta tinh dugc he so don bay hoat dong tai khoi lugng
ban hang 1.000 san pham la:
1.000 (30.000 - 20.000)
D O L , . ooosp = ----------= 2
1.000 (30.000 - 20.000) - 5.000.000
/ 1

Trong truong hgp thir hai, khi chi phi bien doi cua mot
I ' * ' ** r
dan vi san pham va long chi phi co djnh thay doi thi he so don
bay hoat dong tai khoi lugng ban hang 1.000 san pham se la:
nnI = 1000 (30.000 - 24.000)________
ooosp l .000 (30.000 - 24.000) - 1.000.000 ’

185
 10.4. Don bay h u . i t <lon«» va sfl' q u a n ly

Trcn thuc tc, quan ly cua cong ty co the lac d o n g toi don
bay hoat dong, iliong qua cac quyet dinh lam thay doi t> trong
cua chi phi co dinh va chi phi bien doi trong co cau chi phi hoat
dong cua cong ty. Chang han, quan ly cong ty co the thay the
lao dong thu cong bang may moc va nhu vay se lam timg ty
trong cua chi phi co dinh len, kct qua la don bay hoat don>; cung
tang len. Viec chuyen dich ty trong chi phi theo cach nay khong
nhung dap ung dugc nhu cau cua quan ly vc tang nang suat iao
dong - mot muc tieu ma bat ky cong ty nao trong moi che do xa
hoi, moi nen kinh te deu huong toi, ma con cai thien dugc tinh
hinh lgi nhuan ciia cong ty.
Tuy nhien neu co cau chi phi thay doi theo huong tang chi
phi co dinh cung sc dong thoi lam tang riii ro hoat dong ciia
r \ •»

cong ty. Neu thi truang ve san pham hay dich vu ciia cong ty
■* f
dang co xu h u o n g giam sut thi viec thay doi co cau chi phi hoat
\ f /

dong nham tang ty trong chi phi co dinh - tir do lam tang he so
don bay hoat dong - cung se khong cai thicn dugc nhieu ve lgi
r r f
nhuan. H a n the nua neu doanh so ban hang hoa, dich vu cua
/ \

cong ty bi giam thi lgi nhuan se giam rat nhanh. Khi do, du rang
r +

nang suat lao dong co the tang len thi quan ly cong ty cung van
1 f *»

co xu h u o n g tri hoan viec thay doi c a cau chi phi n h a chuyen

r ■> r

dich tir chi phi bien doi sang chi phi co dinh.
Nam dug c ban chat cua don bay hoat dong trong kinh
f
doanh co y nghTa Ion trong quan ly, dac biet trong viec ra quyet
% 9

dinh ve p h u a n g an san xuat, kinh doanh. Quan ly cua cac cong

y / x

ty co the lira chon giai phap cat giam chi phi nham tang loi
nhuan, hoac co the thuc day ban hang de tir do tang lgi nhuan.

186
V o i v. ac cong ty ma Ik >o d^n iv.\ \:t d f i ’c thap thi vice tung
doanh tiiu bail harm khonu lain io; nhuan taim nhanh nlur cac
V V- tw

cong t\ co he so don bay cao. \ i va\ ma cac cong ty nay thuang

tap trung sire lire vao v.Cc i;uan ly, kiem boat chat chi phi nham
giaii\ chi phi de tang !rn nhu: ... C on cac cong ty co lie so don
bav n oat dong cao thi thuan l; tau trunu no iuc nham tana doanh
* ■ *•.«.' Lv * > C. •

so ban hanc vi lai nhuan se taniz nhanh han.

C'ac nganli nhu hang khong. san xuat 6 to co he so don
bay h oat dong cao do dac trung la chi phi co dinh chiem ty trong
Ion ti ong tong chi phi hoat dong. Day chinh la cac nganh co rui
ro ho.at dong cao. Doi voi cac cong ty hoat dong trong cac linh
vuc niav thi hudng cai thien loi nhuan hop ly se la lam sao co the
tang dirge doanh so ban hang, vi khi doanh thu tang lgi nhuan se
y \ ■»

tann .nhanh han nhieu. Han nua. ho khotm co nhieu kha nans de
chuycn dich chi phi tir co dinh sang bien doi nham lam giam rui
ro ho.at dong. Do do cung khong co gi la la khi cac cong ty nay
tren t;hirc te khong tiec tien cho hoat dong quang cao vdi muc
dich inham tang doanh so ban hang.

187
 C huang 11
TINH TOAN GIA TRi HIEN TAI • 9 9

VA OANH G IA CHUNG KHOAN

11.1. Djnh gia tai san co thoi gian su- dung dai

Cong thue de tinh gia trj hien tai cua mot luong tier C i co
duoc mot nam sau la:

PV = DF| x Ci = C'
1+ r,
t r t \ y

Nhan to chiet khau cho luong tien sau mot nam la L)F i, va
ri la chi phi co hoi cua dau tu tien cua ban trong mot nan. Gia
\ r t

sir ban se nhan d u a c m ot khoan tien chac chan $100 trorg nam
t t

tai (Ci = 100) va lai suat cua trai phieu kho bac My mot laim la
7% (ri = 0,07). Gia trj hien tai se bang:
C, 100
PV = DF, x C , = y - ^ r = — = S93,46
^ % / 1

Gia trj hien tai ciia luong tien sau 2 nam do vay co tie viet
tuang tu nhu sau:

PV = DF2 x C 2 = y ^ r

C 2 la luong tien sau 2 nam, D F2 la nhan to chiet klriu cho

cac luong tien 2 nam. Tiep tuc vi du ciia chung ta, gia ;ir ban
nhan duac mot khoan tien khac la $100 sau 2 nam (C 2 = 1 00).

188
I iii .mi;it cir.i trai phieu kho hao 2 mini ia (r2 -• 0,777); dieu
nay "6 nghia hi mot do la dau tu vao tra : phieu 2 nam se thanh
1,077* - S 1,16 cuoi nam thir 2. Gia it i litcu tai ciia khoan tien
sau nam th ir 2 cua ban bang:

C-> 100
PV 77 “ ' ' ' - 77 — H =- -N6.21 USD
( l + r 2) ‘ (1,077)

/ /. 1. /. D a n It g i d c a c l u o n g t i e n t r o n g m o t s o g i a i d o a n

Mot dieu thuan !oi ciia gia tri hien tai la chung duoc bieu
hien bang dong tien ngay hom nay, do vay ban co the cong
cluing lai vdi nhau. Noi mot cach khac, gia tri hien tai ciia luong
tien (A+ B) bang gia tri hien tai eua A cong gia tri hien tai ciia
/ f \

B. Ket qua nay co y nghTa quan trong doi vdi cac khoan dau tu
mang lai luong tien trong mot so giai doan.
Chung ta tinh toan d tren gid tri ciia mot tai san mang lai
\ %

luong tien Ci sau nam 1, chiing ta lai tinh gia tri ciia rrioc tai san
khac mang lai luong tien C'2 sau nam 2. Ta co cong thirc sau ve
gia tri hien tai cua mot tai san mang iai luong tien hang nam
trong 2 nam:

PV = — L- +
1 + i'i (1 + r2 )"

Chung ta co the de dang rut ra cong thirc tinh gia tri hien
tai cho mot day luong tien qua nhieu nam:

p v “ T + n + (iriyj5 + (T+7 T 3' +

V ) /
Cong thirc nay goi la cong thirc chiet khau luong tien hay
tinh gia trj hien tai. Cong thirc co the duoc viet ngan gon nhu
sau:

189
 1>V I • < . V riV
t=M
De tinh gia trj hien tai rong (NPV), ta cong them s ' tien
dau tu ban dau (tlurdng la so am) vao gia trj hien tai:

N PV - Co + PV = Co + ^ C7
(1 + r 2y
t=l

11.1.2. Tai sao thua so chiet khau lai giam khi then gian
chiet khau tang
* #
N hu chung ta da biet, mot do la hom nay co gia tri han
mot do la ngay mai, va mot do la ngay kia tham chi con eo gia
r r * r

tri thap hem. Noi cach khac, thua so chiet khau (hay con goi la
t f t

nhan to chict khau) giam khi thoi gian tang len.

Co tru a n g hop nguac lai hay khong? Ta hay xem xet vi du
sau:
Gia sir rj la 20% va r2 la 7%. Khi do:

D p , = 7^20 = 0 ’83

= = 0 '87
' f X
Vay dieu nay co dung khong? Neu dung, ban co the trcr
thanh trieu phu ngay lap tire bang viec vay va cho vay voi cac lai
/

suat trcn. Trong truang hap nay, da co mot "money machines" -

(may tao tien). Gia sir ban co 1.000 USD, ban co the dau tu vai

190
Lt!s;;ii moi nam \a hap. chac : r.nan duoc S I . 200
sau ii *: i '• in . kc Sai suat cua. r.am thu !;*.: •• 10 nhieu. Ban co
t ! v * a / v ua i;;.’an ham: troiiL*. 2 nam yia tri !;’•.• ,.a cua S I. 200 vai
lai siiai s* mot nam. (PV 1.200 (1,o'7' SI .048. N h u vay
miay i :p tire ban da co S4S I at nhien ilicp n -y khong the ton tai
lau da; iron tin truanu von. Bai vi mzan ha?:a khum* the ton tai
v— V- v-/

n e u fila r v a y lie n vdi lai sua t 2 0 % m d t nan; va e h o v a y v d i lai

s u a t 7° ,, i r o n y h a i n a m .

Ve mat nguyen tae. cd the co cac lai suat khac nhau cho
cac ilia; Joan khac nhau trong tuong lai. Mdi quan he giua lai
suat va tiidi han eua cac luong tien goi la cua true thdi han cua
iai sum.
! )c d o n gian hoa cac tinh toan, chung la i.:a sir rang cau true
ky h an ciia lai suat la nhu nhau. cd nghi la r, i? ~ n = ... = rn.
( .dng (hire tinh gia tri hien tai cd the duac viet lai nlur sau:

P Y
Ci
------------------------------ — 4 -
C2
------------------------- " .4-
e -
------------------- r

1 -r ( l ‘ r)- (I xy "

Trong vi du d cite chuong trudc. chime ta hay da xem xet

du an dau nr vao toa nha van phong trong mot nam. Cac tinh
* ' r \

toan trong vi du do don gian bdi vi tien dau tu het mot lan va
chi trong mol nam. Cd mdt sd du kien mdi la toa nha phai mat 2
nam mdi hoan thanh va yeu cau ve thanh loan cua ben xay dung
nhir sau:
I. S I 0 0 .0 0 0 phai thanh toan ngay cung vdi S 5 0 .0 0 0 gia tri
Id d a t d u n vao xay dung.
? 0 I OO.DOO thanh toan sau mot nam
3. Khoan thanh toan cuoi cium duoc tra vao cuoi nam thir

191
 hai khi vice xav dirng hoan thanh.
Tri gia ban ngoi nha dir kien khong doi la $400,000
Ta co hieu sau vc dir an:
r
1 Thai eian t=0 t= l j 1=2 1
11
Dat -50.000
j
I
Xay dung
.. _. -
-100.000 -100.000 -100.000
Thu lai + 100.000 f
.. '- 1

Ket qua C 0 = -150.000 C, = -100.000 C 2 =^300.000

/ r

Neu lai suat la 7% gia tri hien tai rong NPV dugc tinh nhu
sau:
C, C-> -100.000 300.000
PV = ~ ~ + ‘ , = -150.000 +
1+ r (1 + r) 1,07 (1.07)
= $18,400
N h u vay, NPV van Ion hem 0, du an van dang thuc hien

11.2. T rai khoan vo thoi han va trai khoan tra deu mot
• •

so nam

11.2.1. Trai khoan vo th oi han

Co mot loai chung khoan do Chinh phu Anh phat hanh goi
la trai khoan vo thoi han (perpetuities). Do la mot loai cong, trai
khong hoan tra nhung phai tra mot khoan thu nhap co dinh hang
nam. Ty le thu nhap cua chung khoan vo thoi han bang khoan
thanh toan se nhan dugc hang n a m chia cho gia tri hien tai:
Khoan thanh toan haim nam
Thu nhap
Gia tri hien tai
c
r = PV
PV

192
 Theo cunu tln'rc toan hoc, ta co the tinli toan uia tri hien tai
• C ' * **

cua mot chung khoan vo thoi han co ty le chict khau r va thanh

toan ham> nam C:

PV ---- -
r

11.2.2. Dinh gid ch ung khoan vo tluri han co tang trir&ng

Chung khoan vo thoi han co tang truang dugc dinh gia

theo cong thuc sau day:
C,
PV =
r - g
Trong do g la toe do tang cua luong tien nhan dugc hang
nam, gia sir g < r.

11.2.3. Dinh gid chung khoan tra deu m ot so nam

(annuities)
\ r

Chimg khoan tra dan mot so nam la mot tai san mang lai
/ r t t

thu nhap co dinh hang nam trong mot so nam nhat dinh. Mot so
f * \ \ ' %
vi du cu the nhu mua tra dan deu hay hgp dong tin dung tra dan
A \ ■»

deu. Mot chimg khoan tra deu trong t nam co the dugc xem xet
nhu la mot hieu so ciia hai chimg khoan vo thoi han, mot chung
khoan bat dau tir nam 1 trir mot chimg khoan bat dau tir nam t +
1. Gia tri chimg khoan tra deu trong t nam nay dugc tinh nhu
sau:

PV = -° + ( - ) - Cl
r V r j (I-fry

1 1
=c _r r (1 + r)1

193
 11.2.4. Ldi gop vd gid tri hien tai

Co mot sir phan biet quan trong giira lai gop \ a lai i n
Khi tien dugc dau tu theo lai gop. moi khoan thanh toan lg: Ur.-
tai dau tu de kiem them lgi tuc trong nhung giai doan tiep tlieo
Trai lai, enr hoi tim kiem lgi tire trcn lgi tire la khong co trong
trudng hgp dau tu vdi lai don.
Noi chung trong tai chinh, van de lien quan den lai gop
\

nhieu hon lai don, do • a w ngudi lam cong tac tai chinh thuong
hieu rang ban noi vc lai gop trir phi ban chi ro la trudng hup
khong phai lai gop. Chiet khau la mot qua trinh ngugc lai cua
tinh lai gop.
Hai cau hoi dat ra cho van de co the la: "Gia tri hien tai
ciia S I 00 nhan dugc 10 nam sau !a bao nhieu, neu chi phi co hoi
cua von dau tu la 10%?" hoac ” Can dau tu bao nhieu bay gid de
co duoc $100 trone 10 nam sau neu lai suat la 10%?".
Cau tra ldi cho cau hoi thu nhat la:
100
PV = ,^ io = S38,55
C ao)
Va cau tra ldi cho cau hoi thir hai la:
DSu t u x (1,10)10 = 100
100
Dau tu = TTTTTio = $38,55
( 1,10)
*

11.2.5. Tinh lai gop cho cac khoan tinh nhieu ky trong
nam
Neu nhu khoan tien vay trong nam tinh lai nhieu lan (m
lan), r la lai suat nam thi ty le lai gop bang [1 + r/m]m - 1. Vi du
cac ky tinh lai co the hang thang (m = 12), hang quy (m ; 4)
hoac nira nam (m = 2).

194
 I rong trudng hgp lai suat dugc tinh gop thudng xuyen (m
ca) sau nam thu nhat, SI ban dau tu sc mang lai gia tri la er va
sau t nam sc la c n.
Vi du 1: Ban dau tu $1 vdi lai suat 10% nam tinh gop
thudng xuycn (r = 0,10) trong 1 nam (t = 1). Gia trj cuoi nam la
c ■SI, 105 (xem bang tinh trong phu luc kem theo - Bang 4).
Noi cach khac, dau tu vdi lai suat 10 nam mot tinh lai gop
thudng xuycn dung bang dau tu vdi lai suat 10,5%mot nam vdi
lai suat tinh gop theo nam.
Vi dii 2: Neu ban dau tu SI vdi lai suat 11% nam tinh gop
% r
thuong xuycn (r = 0,11) trong 1 nam (t = 1). Gia tri cuoi nam la
e0,11 =■• S 1,116 (xem bang tinh trong phu luc kem theo - Bang 4).
\ /

Noi cach khac, dau tu vai lai suat 10 nam mot tinh lai gop
thuong xuyen dung bang dau tu vdi lai suat 11,6% mot nam vdi
Iai suat tinh gop theo nam.
f \ r

Vi du 3: Neu ban dau tu $1 vdi lai suat 11% nam tinh gop
thudng xuyen (r = 0,11) trong 2 nam (t = 2). Gia tri cuoi cung
cua khoan dau tu hai nam nay la ert = e0,22 = $1,246.

11.3. Danh gia trai phieu va co phieu

11.3.1. Khai niem trai phieu

f \

Trai phieu la mot chung chi ve ng do ngudi vay phat hanh

cho ngudi cho vay.
m * *»

Ngudi sd hun trai phieu la chu ng cua chu the phat hanh
ra no. Anh ta cd quyen dugc nhan Igi tuc dinh ky theo loai trai
# t * \
phieu (neu co) va nhan bo so tien gia theo gia tri be mat
ciia phieu khi den han.
f *► f

Tuy theo chu the phat hanh, trai phieu dugc phan lam cac

195
loai:

- Trai phieu do N ha mroc phat hanh - cong trai

- Trai phieu do dia phuang phat hanh - cung trai dja
phuang
/ /

- Trai phieu do cong ty phat hanh - trai phieu cong ty

r

Cac loai trai phieu trcn co mire do rui ro khac nhau Thong
thuong cong trai co m uc do rui ro thap nhat. roi den cong trai
dia phuang va rui n. nhat la trai phieu cong ty. Cac loai trai
/

phieu cong ty do cac cong ty khac nhau phat hanh cung co mire
do rui ro khac nhau <uy theo kha nang tai chinh, kha nang phat
trien va uy tin ciia cong ty phat hanh. Do riii ro nay dugc cac
cong ty chuyen mon danh gia thong qua diem tin dung.
Tuy theo thai gian phat hanh, trai phieu co the dugc goi
theo cac ten sau day:
f '

- Trai phieu: co thai han dai nhat

- Phieu ng: co thai han ngan hem
/ f r

- Tin phieu: co thai han ngan nhat

Noi chung, cac phieu ng co thoi han tren mot nam co the
dugc goi chung la trai phieu.
Tuy theo hinh thirc tra lai, trai phieu dugc chia lam cac
loai sau:
- Trai phieu vo han
/ X *» '

- Trai phieu tra dan deu mot so nam

- Trai phieu chiet khau hay trai phieu co coupon bang 0
- Trai phieu coupon
Trong do pho bien la loai trai phieu coupon. Trong
chuang nay ta chi de cap den loai trai phieu nay.

196
 11.3.2. Co phieu

Cd phieu la chirng chi vc quyen si< hiru doi vcri mot so

phan von bang nhau (co phan) cua von com: ty.
Nguai sa hum cd phan duac goi la co dong co quyen sd
huu doi vdi mot phan cong ty theo luat dinh. Anh ta co quyen
i r ^ / *

tham gia dai hoi co dong (neu sd him co phieu thudng) bau hoi
x ^ r f

dong quan trj va quyet dinh cac van de co tinh chat chien luge
cua cong ty; dugc quyen nhan lai theo co phan (co tuc) mot
phan Igi nhuan cua cong ty.
** / x r y

Ngudi sd hiru co phieu khong co quyen nhan lai so tien da

dau tu vao cong ty nhung anh ta co the ban no tren thj trudng
< x x r

chimg khoan de thu tien ve khi anh ta thay co Igi.

x * » /

Theo quyen han va Igi ich co dong dugc hudng, co phieu

^ / V f ' ' *> /

dugc chia thanh co phieu thudng (co phieu goc) va co phieu uu

11.3.3. Danh gid trai phieu

Khi ban co trai phieu (coupon), ban nhan dugc mot khoan
9 9 f W

thu nhap cd dinh. Hang nam cho den khi trai phieu den thdi han,
•%

ban nhan dugc mot khoan Igi tire va tai thdi diem dao han ban
se nhan dugc mot so tien bang gia tri mat (menh gia) cua trai
phieu.
Gia sir vao thang 8 nam 1989 ban dau tu vao mot cong trai
9 S % * 9
kho bac My, lai suat 12 /* phan tram, thai han 5 nam. Trai phieu
co ty 1C' coupon 125/g phan tram va menh gia $1.000. Co nghTa la
hang nam cho den nam 1994 ban se nhan dugc mot khoan Igi
tire bang 0,12625 x 1.000 = % 126,25. Trai phieu den han vao
*

thang 8/1994, tai thdi diem do kho bac se tra ban khoan Igi tuc
$126,25 cuoi cung va S I.000 menh gia. N h u vay, luong tien tir

197
trai phieu nay co the dirge mo ta nhu sau:

Cac luong tien. dola

1990 1991 1992 1993 994

126,25 126,25 126,25 1126,25 126,25

1 . _.........................

Vay gia tri thuong nam 1989 cua cac luong tier tren la
bao nhieu? Be xae dinh dugc dieu do chung ta can xerr x e t thu
nhap cua cac chung khoan tuang tu. Cac trai phieu trrng han
cua kho bac My giua nam 1989 cho lai suat 7,6 phan t-arn. Do
\ r
la khoan ma cac nha dau tu phai bo khi ho mua trai pheiu kho
5 % i t

bac loai 12 1%phan tram. Do vay, de danh gia trai phieu tb o bac
^ A # / / 1 #

12 /g phan tram, ta can chiet khau cac luong tien tuon^ hai vdi
muc 7,6%.
5

P V = £ (T + 7y 1-202,77

t=l
f 1 ' '
Gia trai phieu thuong dugc bieu hien nhu mot ;o phan
tram cua menh gia. N h u vay, chung ta co the noi rang, tni ;phieu
kho bac 12s/g phan tram dang gia $1,202,77 hay 102,28?-..
Chung ta co the dat cau hoi dudi giac do khac: >etu nhu
gia cua trai phieu la $ 1.202,77 thi nha dau tu mong dgi noit ty le
X _
thu nhap bang bao nhieu? Trong trudng hgp nay, ta d m phai
giai tim ra r ciia phu ang trinh sau day:
-126,25 -126,25 -126,25 -126,25 1226,25
$1,202,77- l + r + (1 + r )2 + + r ) J + (i + r )4 + i T T f
r f

Ty le r thudng dugc goi la thu nhap den han cua tni jphieu
hay ty le hoan von noi bo. Trong vi du tren, r = 7,6%. N e u ta
chiet khau cac luong tien theo ty le 7,6%, ta se tinh dugcgiia trai

198
phit'U la S 1.202.77.
Trong viec tinh toan gia tri trai phieu kho bac 12% phan
tram chung ta da can cir vao mot gia dinh. Thir nhat, ta gia sir
ran)', loi tire duoc tra hang nam. trong thue te, hau het cong trai
o My tra dinh ky nua nam. Do vav. thay vi nhan dugc 5126,25
hang nam, nha dau tu vao trai phieu kho bac 12^/8 phan tram
nhan dugc $63,13 vao hang nua nam. Thir hai, chung ta coi
% t S ' £

7.6% la lai suat tinh gop hang nam ma lai suat trai phieu thuong
dirge yeu theo lai suat tinh gop nua nam.
r

11.3.4. Danh gid cd phieu (hirirng

11.3.4.1. Gid hien tai cua cd phieu

\ * * \
Tien thu dugc cua chu so huu co phieu co tir hai nguon:
(1) Tien cd tire va (2) lo hoac lai von. Thong thuong nguoi dau
' 1 f

tu mong nhan dugc ca hai. Gia sir rang gia hien tai ciia co phieu
i /

la P0 , gia mong dgi ciia tren co phieu la DIV). Ty le thu nhap

ma nha dau tu mong dgi tir co phieu nay cho den nam sau dugc
> y f

coi la co tire mong dgi DIV] cong voi su tang gia co phieu
f •* / X

mong dgi Pi - P0, tat ca chia cho gia tai thoi diem bat dau nam
Po:

TK K* ' K* ^ V » +P | - P o
I hu nhap mong dgi
A
bang r = ^

Day la ty le ma nha dau tu mong dgi thuong dugc goi la

f

ty le von hoa cua thi trudng.

Vi du ve ap dung cong thirc tren'
* f

Gia sir co phieu ciia cong ty dien tir Fledgling dang ban
* r x

vai gia S i 00 mot co phieu (Po = 100). Cac nha dau tir mong dgi
y s \

nam sau co $5 co tire (DIVi = 5). Dong thdi ho cung cho rang
co phieu se ban dugc SI 10 mot nam sau. Khi do, ty le thu nhap

199
mong doi la 155 dugc tinh nhu sau:
5 + 100 - 100
r= J qq - 0,15 hay 15%

T u a n g tu nhu vay, neu nhu ban biet du doan cua ca; nha
dau tu ve co tire, ve gia va ty le thu nhap mong dgi ciu cac
chung khoan co cung muc do rui ro, ban co the du doan dugc
gia ca hien tai:
DIV, + P ,
Gia bang PG
1+ r
/ ■» /

Doi voi co phieu cua cong ty dien tu Fledgling co D Vi : =

5 va Pi = 110, thu nhap mong dgi cua cac chung khoan cocung
muc do rui ro nhu cua cong ty la 15% thi hien gia cua nc phai
la:
5 + 1.00
Po- ,J5 -$100
t ’ '

Do dau chung ta biet dugc $ 100 la gia hgp ly cua co )hieu

nay? Bai vi khong gia ca nao khac co the ton tai tren rmt thi
trudng canh tranh.
r r * f t

113.4.2. Cac yeu to quyet dinh g id co p h ieu nam sau

* f

Chung ta da tinh toan gia ca co phieu hien tai can cr vao

■» * / *

co tuc DIV| va gia co phieu mong dgi nam sau P|. Gia cia co
/ > -v A

phieu trong tuang lai khong phai la mot dieu de du doai m ot

/ > i r

cach true tiep. De xae dinh dugc gia cua co phieu mot nan sau,
%

chung ta co the sir dung cong thirc tu ang tu:

DIV2 + P2
Pi =
1+ r
Co nghTa la, mot nam sau nha dau tu se xem xet co ire d
nam 2 va gia co phieu cuoi nam 2. N h u vay chung ta co tie dir

200
tnih P| bang dir tinh DIVi va P2, va cluing ta co the bieu hien Po
qua DIV|, DIV; va P?:
1 1 ( DIV 2 + P 2' .•l' *

Po = T T 7 tf>l v . + P.) = T T 7 1)1 V| + i+ 7

D IV 1 P I V 2 + P:
I4 r ( I + r)“
Trd lai vai vi du cua chung ta, mot cach ly giai tai sao cac
nha dau tu lai mong dgi gia ca a cuoi nam 1 lai tang la ho mong
dtri co tire cao han va lai von nhieu han a nam thu hai. Gia sir
> /

bay gia ho d u doan co tuc la $5,5 va gia la $ 121 a cuoi nam thu
\ X

hai. Dieu do ngam chi mot gia cua cua nam 1 la:
5,5 + 121
Pi = ’ , — = $110
1,15
Gia ca hien tai co the dugc tinh theo cong thue cu (1) hoSc
•* *

co t he tinh theo cdng thue m o rong ( 2 ). Va ket qua mang lai nhu
n h a u bang 100 USD.
/ *

Chung ta da tinh gia ca hien tai qua cac con so du doan ve

X *

co t'uc nam 1 va 2 (D IV ( va DIV2), cung vai du doan ve gia cuoi

narm thu 2 (P2). Vai qua trinh tuang tu, ta co the thay P2 =
( D I V 3 + Pj)/(1 + r), va cu tiep tuc nhu vay ta co cong thue nhu
sau:
D DIV, DIV 2 l DIV 3 ^ ^ DIVh + P h
Po= 1+r + ( T T iy +oT 77 + + (l+r)H

H
D V DIV. , Ph
Po X (1 + r ) , + (l + r ) H
t=l
Neu nhu H tien den vo cung, cong thirc co the viet lai nhu
sau::

201
 cc
DIV,
Z
t-1
(1 4 r)‘

Neu chung ta gia dinh co tuc co dinh den vo han, lai suat
thi trudng khong doi den vo han, gia ciia co plneu co the dirge
tinh mot cach don gian nhu sau:
DIV
P = ------
r
Tren day la mot so img dung cua gia tri hien tai va cac
khai niem lien quan den NPV trong viec danh gia co phieu va
/ *

trai phieu. Cac khai niem va cac cong thuc con co the dugc sir
dung trong viec danh gia cac chung khoan trong thuc te. Doi vdi
X

cac cong ty kinh doanh chimg khoan va cac nha dau tu, viec sir
dung cac phuang phap va cong cu danh gia chimg khoan nhu
noi tren la rat quan trong, vi qua viec danh gia cac cong cu tai
' ’ / # ' ,
chinh nha dau tu co the dua ra cac quyet dinh dung dan va co
hieu qua.

202
 Chita ng 12

PHAN TICH TAI CHINH

TRONG QUAN LY DOANH NGHIEP

12.1. Khai niem, vai tro, muc tieu cua phan tich tai
chinh doanh nghiep

* K hai niem phan tich tai chinh doanh nghiep

Phan tich tai chinh la mot cong cu cua quan ly, trcn co so
t

sir clung lie thong chi tieu phan tich phu hop thong qua cac
phuang phap phan tich nham danh gia tinh hinh tai chinh cua
doanh nghiep trong mot khoang thai gian hoat dong nhat dinh.
Tien c a sd do, giup cho cac nha quan tri doanh nghiep va cac
' ' '
dia tuang quan tarn dua ra cac quyet dinh nham tang cudng
quan ly tai chinh va dat hieu qua cao nhat trong kinh doanh.
* Vai tro ciia phan tich ldi chinh doanh nghiep
Trong nen kinh tc thi trudng co su quan ly vi mo cua Nha
nude, co nhieu doi tuang quan tam den tinh hinh tai chinh cua
doanh nghiep nhu cac nha dau tu, cung cap tin dung ngan han
f

va dai han, cac nha quan ly doanh nghiep, ca quan thue, cac ca
quan quan ly Nha nude, ngudi lao dong,... Cac doi tuang quan
tam den tinh hinh tai cni..h ciia doanh nghiep dudi nhung goc
do khac nhau. Phan tich tai chinh giiip cho tat ca cac doi tuang
nay co thong tin phii hap vdi muc dich ciia minh, tren ca sd do

203
ho co the dua ra cac quyet dinh hop ly trong Kinh doanh. C :W
nha dau tir tim kiem igi nhuan nen moi quan tan 1 ldn nha; cua
ho la kha nang sinh lai cua doanh nghiep. Ben canh do, trong
nen kinh te thi trudng vdi sir canh tranh gay gat. cac nha dau tu
cung phai chit trong den tilth an toan cho dong von cita h o do
do ho cung quan tain nhieu den tm'rc do rui ro cua cac dir an dau
tu dac biet la rui ro tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep. Phan tich tai
chinh giup cho ho danh gia dugc kha nang sinh Igi cung nhu sir
*

on dinh lau dai ciia doanh nghiep.

Cac nha cung cap tin dung quan tarn den kha nang doanh
nghiep co the hoan tra cac khoan ng. Tuy nhien, cac chu ng
/ / r

ngan han va dai han cd mdi luu tarn khac nhau. Cac chu ng ngan
han thudng quan tarn den kha nang thanh toan ciia doanh nghiep
nham dap ung cac yeu cau chi tra trong thai gian ngan. Con cac
r

chu ng dai han lai quan lam den kha nang ciia doanh nghiep co
dap img dugc yeu cau chi tra tien lai va tra ng goc khi den han
r *

khong do do ho phai chu trong den ca kha nang sinh lai va su on

/ \

dinh lau dai ciia doanh nghiep Tren co sd cung cap thong tin vc
cac khia canh nay, phan tich tai chinh giup cho cac chu ng dua
ra cac quyet dinh ve khoan ng nhu co cho vay khong, thdi han
bao lau, vay bao nhieu?
\ ■» ■*

Cac nha quan ly doanh nghiep can thong tin de kiem soat
va chi dao tinh hinh san xuat kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep do
vay ho thudng phai quan tam den moi khia canh phan tich tai
f \

chinh. Phan tich giup ho cd dinh hudng cho cac quyet dinh ve
dau tu, ca cau nguon tai chinh, phan chia Igi nhuan, danh gia
hieu qua hoat dong kinh doanh dc co nhung bien phap dieu
chinh phu hgp.

204
 C 1 quaii thuc quan tam den so thuc n,a doanh nghiep phai
nop. H o n g tin tai chinh giup ho nam diroc '"\h hinh thirc hien
nghia va nop time doi vai ngan sach, so ph;!; nop, da nop va con
phai nop
C a quan thong kc hay nghien ciru ihong qua phan tich tai
chinh co the tong hap cac chi tieu kinh tc cua toan nganh, kliu
virc hay toan bo nen kinh te de phan tich a tam vi mo, dua ra
/ ^ r

cac chien luge phat trien kinh te dai han.

N guai lao dong cung quan tam den tinh hinh tai chinh cua
doanh nghiep de danh gia trien vong cua no trong tuang lai.
f

Nguoi lao dong dang lam viec tai doanh nghiep mong muon
biet d u ac sue manh thirc sir cua doanh nghiep minh, tinh hinh
/

sir dung cac quy, phan chia lai nhuan, cac kc hoach kinh doanh
* *

trong tuang lai de co duac niem tin vai doanh nghiep va tao
0 \

dong lire lam viec tot. Con nhtrng nguoi dang di tim viec deu
t
mong muon dugc lam viec a nhung doanh nghiep co kha nang
sinh lai cao va co kha nang phat trien on dinh lau dai de hy vong
*

co mire lucmg ximg dang va cong viec lam on dinh. Phan tich
tai chinh se cung cap nhung thong tin nay giiip cho ho co dugc
/

quyet dinh hgp ly.

*» f

N hu vay, co the thay, vai tro co ban cua phan tich tai
r f t

chinh la cung cap thoq^-tin hyu ich cho tat ca cac doi tugng
quan tam den tinh hinh tai chinh cua doanh nghiep tren nhung
t t

khia canh khac nhau, giup cho ho co co so vung chac de dua ra

cac quyet dinh phu hop voi muc dich ciia minh.
* M uc tieu cua phan tich tai chinh doanh nghiep
De tro thanh rnot?c6ng cu dac lire giup cho cac nha quan
tri doanh nghiep va cac doi tugng quan tam den hoat dong cua

205
doanh nghiep co dirge eae quyet dinh dung dan trong kinh
doanh, phan tich tai chinh doanh nghiep can dat duoc cac muc
tieu sau:
- Danh gia chinh xac tinh hinh tai chinh cua doanh nghiep
tien cac khia canh khac nhau nhu c a cau nguon von, tai san. kha
nang thanh toan. hm chuyen tien te, hieu qua sir dung tai san,
kha nang sinh lai, rui ro tai chinh.... nham dap img thong tin
r * •

cho tat ca cac doi tugng quan tarn den hoat dong ciia doanh
> *

nghiep nhu cac nha dau tu, cung cap tin dung, quan ly doanh
nghiep, ca quan thue, nguei lao dong....
- Djnh h u ang cac quyet dinh ciia cac doi tugng quan tam
theo chicu h u an g phu hgp vai tin!', hinh thirc te ciia doanh
nghiep nhu quvet dinh dau tu. tai trg, phan chia Igi nhuan,...
- T ra thanh ca s a cho cac d u bao tai chinh, giup ngirai
phan tich du doan dugc tiem nang tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep
trong tuang lai.
> *

- La cong cu de kiem soat hoat dong kinh doanh ciia

doanh nghiep tren c a sd kiem tra, danh gia cac chi tieu ket qua
f

dat dugc so vdi cac chi tieu ke hoach, du toan, dinh mire,... Tir
1 * f

do, xac dinh dugc nhung diem manh va diem yeu trong hoat
/

dong kinh doanh, giup cho doanh nghiep co dug c nhung quyet
djnh va giai phap dung dan, dam bao kinh doanh dat hieu qua
cao. Muc tieu nay dac biet quan trong vdi cac nha quan tri
doanh nghiep.

12.2. Co' sd du- lieu phuc vu phan tich tai chinh doanh
nghiep

De dat duoc cac muc tieu cua phan tich tai chinh doanh

206
r.v1. i'u’:p you c;lu phai co mot co so du : : can thiet. cung cap
tlu n.i tin il'\\ du, kip then va phu hop. -'none tin nhuc vu cho
plun lid- tai chmh co the ph;'*n loai theo ; hieu tieu thuc khac
nhau. Theo pham vi va noi dung phan anh, thong tin sir dung
troiL' nhan tich tai chinh bao uom hai neuen co ban la thong tin
w ; w* ^

tir he thong kc toan va thong tin ben ngoai h 2 thong ke toan.

/ / ' X

Thonv tin tic he thong ke toan chu 0vcu bao eom cac bao
O • CT* / i-/

t in) tai chinh va mot so tai lieu so sach ke toan nhu bang can doi
r *i X

kc toan, bao cao kct qua kinh doanh, bao cao luu chuyen tien te,
/ S * 9 /

bao cao chi tiet vc chi phi san xuat kinh doanh theo yeu to, bao
cao chi tiet ve ket qua san xuat kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep,
r % 9
bao cao chi tiet ve tinh hinh tang giam tai san co dinh, tang giam
\ bn chu so hiru, cac khoan phai thu va no nhai tra ...
* r *

Thong tin hen ngoai he thong ke toan duac sir dung de

j)han tich nguyen nhan, cac yeu to anh huong cua moi trudng
kinh doanh cung nhu cac chinh sach cua doanh nghiep tac dong
f X

den tinh hinh tai chinh doanh nghiep nhu the nao. Nguon thong
tin nay giup cho cac ket luan trong phan tich tai chinh co tinh
thuyet phuc cao. Cac thong tin nay dugc chia thanh ba nhom:
% / x

thong tin chung ve tinh hinh kinh te, thong tin ve nganh kinh
doanh ciia doanh nghiep va thong tin vc dac diem hoat dong cua
doanh nghiep:
* f

- Thong tin chung ve tinh hinh kinh te

X /

Cac thong tin phan anh tinh hinh chung ve kinh te tai mot
thoi kv nhat dinh co lien quan den hoat dong kinh doanh cua
X

doanh nghiep la nhung thong tin quan trong can xem xet. Hoat
x r
dong kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep chiu tac dong bdi nhieu yeu
to thuoc moi trudng vi mo nen phan tich tai chinh can dat trong

207
hoi canh chung cua kinh te trong nuac \ a khu \irc I ren c a ^
ket hap nhirng thong tin nay se tao dieu kien danh gia day Ju
hem tinh hinh tai chinh va dong thai co the dir bao nhirng ngay
r

ca. co hoi doi vai hoat dong cua doanh nghiep. Nhung thong '.in
can quan lam th u a n g bao gom:
4 Thong tin ve tang truong hay suy thoai kinh te. dac b.et
vai- pham v tire tig n u a c va khu vuc.
Cac chi'nh sach kinh te lan ciia Nha nuac, chinh sach
chinh tri, ngoai giao, phap luat, che do tai chinh, ke toan,... co
lien quan.
*

+ Thong tin ve ty le lam phat.

> /

+ Thong tin ve lai suat ngan hang, ty gia ngoai te

- Thong tin ve nganh kinh doanh ciia doanh nghiep
*

Trong pham vi nganh can xem xet su phat trien ciia doanh
0 ^ +

nghiep trong moi lien he vai cac hoat dong va dac diem chung
r ^

cua nganh kinh doanh. Nhirng thong tin lien quan den nganh can
chu trong quan tam th u an g bao gom:
+ Nhip do va xu h u an g van dong cua nganh
+ M uc do va yeu cau cong nghe cua nganh
+ Quy mo cua thi truong va trien vong phat trien
+ Tinh chat canh tranh cua thi truong, moi quan he vai
0

nha cung cap va khach hang

9 r ^ i • \

+ N guy c a xuat hien nhung doi thu canh tranh tiem tang
0 \ 0 • % • /

Cac van de tren se anh huang den cac chi tieu tai chinh
cua doanh nghiep n h u kha n^ng sinh lai, toe do luan chuyen
von, c a cau nguon von,... Do vay thong tin ve nganh kinh
doanh la rat quan trong. Chang han, khi tien hanh phan tich tinh

208
 <c- »

hinh tai chinh cua mot hang hang khoni; thi can phai biet boi
canh cua tin trirang hang khong quoc te. cac dac diem cua
nganh hang khong quoc gia muc do canh tranh cua nganh, cac
chinh sach ciia Nha nuac doi vai rieng nganh hang khong co
anh huang den su phat trien nhu chinh wash thue, chinh sach ve
gia v e . ..
- Thong tin ve dac diem hoat dong cua doanh nghiep
Moi doanh nghiep co dac diem rieng trong chien luge
kinh doanh va to chirc hoat dong nen de danh gia chi'nh xac tinh
hinh tai chinh, nguai phan tich can nghien ciru cac dac diem
/ \

hoat dong cua doanh nghiep, chu yeu bao gom cac khia canh
sau:
f

+ Muc tieu va chien luge kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep

+ Chinh sach tai chinh, tin dung cua doanh nghiep
+ Dac diem cong nghe va chinh sach dau tu cua doanh
nghiep
i ■% r

+ Dac diem luan chuyen von trong qua trinh kinh doanh
+ Tinh thai vu, tinh chu ky trong hoat dong kinh doanh
+ Moi lien he giua doanh nghiep vai ngan hang, nha cung
cap, khach hang va cac doi tugng khac
Ngoai cach phan loai nhu tren, thong tin phuc vu cho phan
tich tai chi'nh con co the dugc phan loai theo cac tieu thue khac
nhir nguon thong tin, thai diem ghi nhan thong tin, muc do quan
/ y f

trong va do chinh xac cua thong tin, chu ky xuat hien va tan so
sir dung thong tin.
Theo nguon thong tin thi bao gom cac thong tin tir ca
quan quan ly cap tren (vi du nhu thong tin ve ca che chinh sach

209
c u a N h a n i r oc\ c h u ti'irani!.
v
chrom*V loi , l ua ! , c a c c h i thi an h a n
cua cac cap chinh quyen i. tin ’ii^: un t-'r cac ho phan d '• dirdi,
thong tin tir cao phuang tien thong tin dai chung
Theo thoi diem ghi nhan. thong tin dugc ehia thani thong
tin qua klur. thong tin ihuc tai va thong tin dir bao. Thong tin
qua khir la thong tin phat sinh trong cac ky truac, thong in thuc
tai la thong tin phat sinh trong ky bao cao con thong tindi.r hao
la nhung thong tin du tinh se xay ra trong ky tu ang lai.
Theo mire do quan trong va do chinh xae cua thorn t n thi
co thong tin chinh thuc rnang tint) phap lenh. thong tin h u o n g
dan, thong tin tham k h a o ...
Theo chu ky xuat hien va tan so sir dung cua thorn ti n tin
co thong tin hang ngay, thong tin hang thang, hang qiy hoac
hang n a m ,...
\ *

Tuy theo yeu cau phan tich in a se co nhung yeu d u khac

* t

nhau ve thong tin phuc vu cho phan tich. Viec nam vCng cac
*

cach phan loai thong tin se la c a sd do lua chon thong in phu

\

hap vdi muc dich, yeu cau phan tich tai chinh.

12.3. P huong phap phan tich

Phuang phap phan tich la tong hgp cac cach thrc.. thu
phap, cong thirc, mo hinh,... dugc sir dung trong qua trim jphan
tich. Trong phan tich tai chinh, cac phuang phap dugc vai (dung
de nghien cuu cac chi tieu, y nghTa, cac moi quan he va :u thay
doi cua chimg, tir do phan anh thuc trang tai chinh va heu qua
hoat dong cua doanh nghiep. Phan tich tai chinh cc nihieu
ph uang phap. trong qua trinh phan tich, can dua vao loii hinh
doanh nghiep, dac diem san xuat kinh doanh, nguon tii lieu,

210
niuc dich phan tich... dc lira chon phuvng phap phu hgp. Cac
phuang phap chu yeu dugc sir dung dc phan tich tai chi'nh co
the dirge phan loai nhu sau:

* Phucmg phap s<>sank

f *

Day la phuang phap duoc su dung pho bien trong phan

tich. Nguai sir dune phuang phap nay can nam chac cac van de
sau
Thu nhat la lua chon tieu chuan so sanh. Tieu chuan so
sanh la chi tieu dugc lua chon lam can cu de so sanh, hay con
dugc goi la goc so sanh. Tuy theo muc dich phan tich ma goc so
sanh dugc lira chon cho phu hgp. Cac goc so sanh co the su
dung la:
A '

- So lieu cua ky truoc trong trirang hgp can danh gia xu

huang phat trien, bien dong cua cac chi tieu
* f r
- So lieu du kien (ke hoach, dy toan, dinh mire) trong
> /

truong hgp can danh gia tinh hinh thue te so vai du tinh
r
- So lieu trung binh cua nganh, linh vuc kinh doanh trong
> r
truong hgp can danh gia vj tri cua doanh nghiep trong moi
tuang quan vai cac doanh nghiep khac trong nganh
Thu hai la dieu kien so sanh dugc. Dieu kien quan trong
de dam bao phep so sanh co y nghTa la cac chi tieu dem so sanh
> / #

phai dam bao tinh dong nhat, tuc la phai dam bao phan anh cung
mot noi dung kinh te, cung mot phuang phap tinh toan, sir dung
cung mot dan vi do lucmg, ngoai ra cac doanh nghiep can co
*

quy mo va dieu kien kinh doanh tucmg tir nhau.

Thir ba la ky thuat so sanh. Cac ky thuat so sanh thuomg
dugc su dung bao gom:

211
 - So sanh tuyet doi: la kct qua chenh lech giira so lieu cua
ky phan tich vdi so lieu gOc. Ket qua so sanh tuyet doi phan anh
sir bien dong ve quy mo cua doi tugng phan tich.
- So sanh tuong doi: the hien bang ty le giua so lieu ilia
ky phan tich vdi so lieu goc. Ket qua so sanh tu ang doi thudng
/ f

phan anh toe do phat trien cua doi tugng phan tich.
- So sanh vdi so binh quan: so binh quan the hien tinh pho
bien, tinh dai dien cua cac chi tieu khi so sanh giua cac ky phan
tich hoac chi tieu binh quan cua nganh.
* P huang p h a p thay the lien hoan
Phuang phap thay the lien hoan dugc sir dung nham xae
f t /

dinh anh hudng cua timg nhan to den sir bien dong cua chi tieu
phan tich. Qua trinh thuc hien phuang phap thay the lien hoan
gom cac budc nhu sau:
Budc mot, xae dinh doi tugng phan tich la mire chenh
f /

lech chi tieu ky phan tich so vdi so lieu goc.

Vi du:
Goi Y1 la chi tieu ky phan tich va YO la chi tieu goc.
Doi tugng phan tich dugc xae dinh la muc chenh lech Y I -
YO
/ ', A
Budc hai, thiet lap phuang trinh phan anh moi quan hie
/ ' Z'

cua cac nhan to vdi chi tieu phan tich va sap xep cac nhan to
theo trinh tu nhat dinh.
Vi du:
Ky phan tich: Y1 = al * b l * cl
So lieu goc: YO = aO * bO * cO
Budc ba, lan lugt thay the cac nhan to ky phan tich vao k y

212
goc thct) trinh tir sap xep d birac hai
Vi cu:
Thay the lan 1: al * bO * cO
Thay the lan 2: a I * bi * cO
Thay the lan 3: al * bl * cl
/ r
Birdc bon, xac dinh muc do anh hudng cua tirng nhan to
den doi tugng phan tich bang cach lay ket qua thay the lan sau
f t \

so vdi ket qua thay the lan trudc.

Vi du:
Anh hudng ciia nhan to a : al * bO * cO - aO * bO *c0
Anh hudng cua nhan to b: a 1 * b I * cO - a 1 * bO * cO
Anh hudng cua nhan to e : al * b 1 * c I - al * b I * cO
■» f
I rons do, tong muc chcnh lech cua chi tieu so vdi ky goc
phai bang tong mire anh hudng ciia cac nhan to.
f
Phuang phap thay the lien hoan co uu diem la dan gian,
~ r r r

d<3 thirc hien va xac dinh dugc anh hudng ciia timg yeu to den
✓

ddi tugng phan tich. Tuy nhien nhugc diem ciia phuang phap
nay la cac mdi quan he giua cac yeu to phai dugc gia dinh la cd
f r r
mdi lien quan theo md hinh tich sd hay thuang so. Trong khi do,
> r t •» *

tren thirc te cac yeu to co the cd nhung mdi lien quan theo cac
md hinh khac. H an nua, khi xac dinh anh hudng ciia mot yeu to,
* f t > e

can phai gia dinh cac yeu to khac khong (hay dot. Nhung thue te
thi cac veu to thudng luon bien dong.
* Phuong p h a p so chcnh lech
Phuang phap sd chenh lech la mdt dang dac biet cua
phuang phap thay the lien hoan dugc sir dung nham phan tich
anh hudng ciia cac yeu to den su bien ddng ciia chi tieu phan

213
tich. Do vay. phuang phap n:'"-' ng co cac uu vfi nhua- d'icm
cua phuang phap thay the 11cn Ben canh Jo . phuam ph :p
so chenh lech cung co Jay du- budc thue hien nhu purarv.
phap thay the lien hoan. Tuv n .on cach tinh cua phuoii' p>iup
nay dan gian han. K.hi tinh muc do anh hudng cua nhan 6 nao
thi lay muc do chenh lech cua nhan to ay nhan vdi cac ma n to
khac theo nguyen tac: nhan vdi so lieu ky phan tich cia cue
f r *

nhan to dung trudc no va nhan vdi so lieu ky goc cua ca-. nihan
to dung sau no.
r r

Vi du: lay tiep vi du duac trinh bay d ph uang pha) t.hay

/ r

the lien hoan. Theo ph uang phap so chenh lech, anh hudtg cua
cac nhan to duac tinh n h u sau:
Anh hudng cua nhan to a: (al-aO)*bO*cO
Anh hudng cua nhan to b: al*(bl-bO)*cO
Anh hudng cua nhan to c: a l* b l* (c l-c O )
* Phucmg p h a p can doi
Trong cac chi tieu tai chinh cua doanh nghiep co nhi*u chi
\ r t

tieu co lien he vdi nhau bang nhung moi lien he mang tim ichat
/ r t ’ ^

can doi, vi du nhu can doi giua tong tai san va tong nguoi v o n ,
can doi giua nhu cau vdi kha nang thanh toan, can doi tiu chi
tien mat. can doi giua xuat, nhap va ton kho nguyen vat leui,...
/ / 1 < '
N hung moi lien he can doi nay thudng d u ac the hien b a n g
r *

phuang trinh kinh te, chang han:

*i •* \ r

Tong tai san = tong nguon von

NVLtdn ^ NVl.nhap NVL sur dung ^ NV. non

dau ky trong ky trong ky cue ky
f f 4 '

Tren c a sd cac moi lien he m ans tinh can doi trei, neu
* W '

214
mot chi tieu thay doi se dan den sir thay dot cua chi tieu khac.
Do v;';v. can phai lap cong thirc can doi, thu thap so lieu dc xac
dinh mire do anh lnrang ciia cac nhan to den chi tieu phan tich
khi tien hanh phan tich mot chi tieu kinh te co lien he vai cac
chi tieu khac bang moi lien he can doi.
♦

P huang phap can doi thuang duac sir dung trong truong
hap moi quan he giua cac chi tieu la moi quan he “tong so” .
f

* Phucmg phap phan tich chi tiet

t t

Khi tien hanh phan tich mot doi tuong nghien cini phuc
tap, nguai phan tich th u an g khong chi danh gia mot cach tong
quat ma eon tien hanh phan chia nho doi tugng de nghien ciru
ky han. Do la phuang phdp phan tich chi tiet. Phuang phdp nay
^ t r

dugc sir dung nham cu the hoa timg bo phan cau thanh va qua
* f

trinh phat trien eua doi tugng phan tich trong khong gian, thai
gian khac nhau. Cac chi tieu tai chinh thuong dugc phan tich chi
tiet theo yeu to cau thanh, theo thai gian va theo dia diem.
Chi tiet theo yeu to cau thanh the hien duac anh huang
ciia tirng bo phan den chi tieu tong hgp nen dugc sir dung pho
r y

bien trong phan tich. Phucmg phdp nay nham xac djnh muc do
bien dong cua chi tieu phan tich do anh huang ciia cac yeu to.
Chi tiet theo thai gian giup cho nguoi phan tich danh gia
% /

ket qua kinh doanh mot each chi'nh xac hon. Ket qua kinh doanh
bao gia cung la ket qua cua mot qua trinh, tien do thue hien qua
trinh do trong timg d an vj thai gian xac dinh thuong khong
dong deu do nhieu nguyen nhan chu quan va khach quan khac
r

nhau. Do vay, vice phan tich chi tiet theo thai gian se giup ich
cho vice danh gia ket qua kinh doanh dugc sat dung va tim dugc
cac giai phdp co hieu qua trong timg khoang thai gian nhat dinh.

215
Ngoai ra, chi tiet hoa theo thin gian con giup ich cho viec xay
dung ke hoach sir dung tiem nang ciia doanh nghiep trong tirng
khoang then gian nhat dinh. Tuy theo muc dich ciia phan tich,
dac diem ciia hoat dong kinh doanh, noi dung kinh te eiu chi
tieu phan tich co the lira chon khoang thai gian can chi tiet theo
thang, quy. n a m ,...
/ > f

Chi tiet theo dia diem giup cho viec danh gia ket qua hoat
r

dong kinh doanh theo tirng bo phan, qua do thay dugc mire do
dong gop, nhung uu nhugc diem ciia timg bo phan trong viec
tao ra ket qua chung, phat hien cac dan vj tien tien hay lac hau
tren c a sa do de co cac giai phap phu hgp.
t r

Chi tiet hoa giup cho ket qua phan tich du gc chinh xac va
\

da dang. Tuy nhien, trong qua trinh phan tich can can cu vao
> »

muc dich, yeu cau phan tich va dac diem cua chi tieu de lira
f

chon cach thirc chi tiet cho phu hop.

* P huang p h a p p h a n tich ty le
0 * i

Phuong phap phan tich ty le sir dung so tucmg doi de

nghien ciru cac chi tieu trong moi quan he vcri cac chi tieu khac.
Ban chat cua p h u a n g phap nay la thong qua quan he ty le de
danh gia. De phan anh chinh xac tinh hinh tai chinh va hieu qua
hoat dong ciia doanh nghiep, neu chi so sanh cac thong tin co
san trong cac bao cao tai chinh cua doanh nghiep thi chua du,
X f f
ma can thong qua phan tich cac tyso tai chinh. Cac ty so tai
chinh bao gom cac ty le phan anh kha nang thanh toan, kha
nang hoat dong, kha nang sinh lai, hieu qua sir dung tai san, toe
do luan chuyen von,... Cac ty le nay cho thay cac moi quan he
giua cac khoan muc khac nhau trong cac bao cao tai chinh.
P hu an g phap nay thuang dugc sir dung ket hgp vai phuang

216
p h a p so s a n h n h a m p h a n a n h sir b i e n J o n : ’ c u a c a c ty s o tai
c h in h q u a n h i e u giai d>an \ a so sanh \ o i Y an h nghiep khac
troim c u n u neanli.

* Ph trong phap do thi

Plum tich tai chinh sir dung plnrang phap do thi de phan
anh true quan cac so lieu phan tich bang hieu do, do thj. qua do
mo ta xu hudng. muc do bien dong cua chi tieu nghien ciru hay
the hien moi quan he ket cau cua cac bo phan trong mot tong
the. Phuang phap nay co uu diem the hien ro rang, true quan su
bien dong tang giam hay moi lien he giua cac chi tieu. Phuang
% % \ ' >

phap do thi gom nhieu dang nhu do thi hinh cot, do thi hinh
tron,... dugc sir dung de phan tich nhung 1101 dung kinh te thich
hgp. Chang han, do thi hinh cot thudng dugc sir dung de mo ta
xu hudng bien dong cua chi tieu nghien cuu hoac so sanh chi
tieu giua cac dan vi, do thi hinh tron thudng dugc sir dung de
f r ■» % f

phan anh ket cau cua cac bo phan trong mot tong the nhu ket
cau nguon von, ket cau tai san.
* P huang phap Dupont
r

Day la phuang phap phan tich tren co sd moi quan he

\ f t

tuang ho giira cac ty so tai chinh nham xae djnh cac yeu to tac
dong den cac ty so tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep. Noi cach khac,
, y t

ban chat ciia phuang phap nay la the hien mot ty so tong hgp
bang tich so cua chuoi cac ty so co moi quan he tuang ho vdi
/ t

nhau vdi muc dich phan tich anh hudng cua cac ty so do doi vdi
ty so tong hgp.
Vi du: Khi xcm xct chi tieu tv suat lgi nhuan tren tong tai
san, co the phan tich chi tieu nay thanh tich si> cua cac chi tieu
ty suat lgi nhuan tren doanh thu va lie so quay vong tai sail, tir

217
do xac dinh anh lunVnu cua tung veu to t> suat loi nhi:;i:i tren
doanh thu va he so quay vong tai san ddi vdi ty suat lo; r.huan
tren tons' tai san. Cu the. conn thirc nav duoc dien eiai nhu sau:

Ty suat Igi nhuan Ty suat Igi nhuan 1le so q.iav

tren tong tai san tren doanh thu vong ciia t.u san

hay:

Lgi nhuan Lgi nhuan Doanh thu thuan

TS binh quan Doanh thu thuan TS binh quan

Kha phan tich cung co the phan tich chi tieu ty su.it lgi
nhuan tren von chu sd huu theo md hinh Dupont nhu sau:
Nha phan tich cung cd the phan tich chi tieu ty suat lgi
nhuan tren vdn chu sd huu theo md hinh Dupont nhu sau:

r . , „ T . . . Doanh thu ...

Loi nhuan Loi nhuan . i Tone tai san
thuan
x -------------------- x
VCSH Doanh thu Tdng tai san VCSH
thuan °
V oi p h u on g phap duoc lua chon phu hop, n gu oi phan
tich se v?n dung vao nhung noi dung phan tich cu the nhu-
sau.

12.4. Noi dung phan tich tai chinh doanh nghiep

Phan tich tai chinh doanh nghiep bao gom mot sd noi
dung c a ban nham phan anh tinh hinh tai chinh cua doanh
\

nghiep mot cach toan dien tren nhieu khia canh, dam bao dap
* * \ f

img dugc nhu cau ve phan tich tai chinh cho nhieu ddi tirgng
r

khac nhau. Noi dung phan tich dirge thirc hien thong qua mot sd
chi tieu, thong th ud ng bao gom nhirng noi dung nhu sau: danh

218
 gia khai quat tinh hinh tai chinh. phan tich k.ia nang thanh toan.
phan lich luong tien. phan tich hieu qua hoat dong, phan tich
kha nang sinh lai va phan tich don bay tai chinh.
* Danh gid khai quat tinh hinli tai chinh cua doanh
n g h ie p .

Danh gia khai quat tinh hinh tai chinh la nhan dinh chung
ve tinh hinh tai chinh cua doanh nghiep. Cong viec nay se cung
^ /
cap cho ngudi su dung thong tin biet dugc tinh hinh tai chinh
cua doanh nghiep la kha quan hay khong kha quan. Danh gia
khai quat tinh hinh tai chinh thudng sir dung cac chi tieu trong
t r

timg bao cao tai chinh rieng le nhu bang can doi ke toan, bao
/

cao ket qua kinh doanh ma chua co su lien he giua cac bao cao
nay.
Trong bang can doi ke toan, chi tieu dugc quan tam trudc
tien la chi tieu tong tai san va tong nguon von. Chi tieu nay phan
* f
anh tong hgp quy mo von ma dcrn vi su dung trong ky cung nhu
kha nang huy dong von tu cac nguon khac nhau cua doanh
nghiep. Chi tieu nay dugc so sanh theo chieu ngang qua cac ky
ke toan se cho thay muc do tang trudng cua von. Mat khac, viec
w

so sanh vdi cac doanh nghiep khac trong cung nganh se thay
r \ *

du gc moi tuang quan vequy mo von ciia doanh nghiep.

x X /

Cac chi tieu ve cac loai tai san va nguon von dugc phan
tich theo ca chieu ngang va chieu doc. Phan tich theo chieu
ngang giiip nha phan tich thay dugc sir bien dong cua cac khoan
\ t t

muc tai san va nguon von, tuy nhien chua phan anh dugc moi
quan he giua cac khoan muc trong tong tai san hay tong nguon
von. Moi quan he nay dugc thay ro qua phan tich chieu doc, cac
khoan muc dugc tinh ty le vdi tong tai san hoac tong nguon von

219
do xac dinh t y le k e t c a n cii a tirng l o a i tai s a n h o a c ngU'V \on
tren tong si). V i c e s o s a n h mire thay d o i cua mdi k h o a n n uc
theo so luvet doi cung nhir so ty le cho thay sir thay d o i vc i u y
mo ciia moi khoan muc cung nhir thay ro cac khoan muc c o b on
dong lan. Bat ky khoan muc nao co sir bien dong ldn so vai sir
bien dong chung ciia cac khoan muc khac luon can nha phan
tich phai quan tam xem xet ky luang.
C a cau tai san va nguon von dirge tinh toan dc danh r.ia
kha nang huy dong von ciia doanh nghiep tir cac nguon khic
nhau va viec phan bo, sir dung lugng von nay dau tu vao cac
? •*

loai tai san co hop ly khong. Cu the doanh nghiep co the sir
dung mot so chi tieu nhu sau:
. - Tai san co dinh da va daniz dfiu tir
Ty suat dau tu = ------------------------tt—----- “---------- x 100 (%)
J Tong tai san v
> f

Chi tieu nay phan anh tinh hinh dau tu vao c a s a vat chat
f

ky thuat, may moc thiet bi ciia doanh nghiep. Qua chi tieu nay
co the thay dugc nang lire san xuat va xu huang phat trien lau
dai ciia doanh nghiep. Tuy nhien, chi tieu nay se phu thuoc vao
dac diem kinh doanh cua cac nganh khac nhau. Co mot so
nganh sc doi hoi chi tieu nay cao han cac nganh khac nhu cac
nganh cong nghiep nang (vi du nganh cong nghiep tham do va
*

khai thac dau mo, cong nghiep luyen kirn,...). Ngoai ra, chi tieu
■» *

nay cung thay doi tuy thuoc vao dieu kien va cac giai doan kinh
■» / /

doanh nhu doi mai, thay the, nang cap trong noi bo doanh
nghiep.
■* r

Ngoai viec xem xet tinh hinh phan bo von, doanh nghiep
va cac ddi lugng quan tam khac can phan tich ca can nguon von
nham danh gia dugc kha nang tu tai trg vc mat tai chinh cua

220
doanh nghiep eung nlur mire d>; t\r chu. cliu dong trong kinh
doanh. Dieu na\ dirge phan anh qua \ :ic x ic dinh ty suat tir tai
trg. Chi tieu nay cang eao thi kha nunc J "c up ve mat tai chinh
hay mire do tir tai trg cua doanh nghiep can;: ion:

Von chu so hfru

I v suat tir tai tra = *^rr * i r x 100 ( % )
1ong nguon von

Ben canh chi tieu trcn, doanh nghiep cung eo the sir dung
chi tieu ty le ng de phan tich co cau nguon von. Chi tieu nay
tinh theo ty le giua nguon von vay ng va tong nguon von.
Ng irgc vai chi tieu tren, ty le ng cang ldn thi kha nang doc lap
ve mat tai chinh hay muc do tu tai trg cua doanh nghiep cang
thap:
N ct phai tra
T y le na = v r : — ------ x 100 (% )
J ■ 1ong nguon von
/ /

Ben canh cac chi tieu tinh dugc tir bang can doi ke toan,
thdng qua bao cao ket qua hoat dong kinh doanh co the danh gia
khai quat lgi nhuan cua doanh nghiep dua tren cac chi tieu
t

doanh thu, gia von hang ban, lgi nhuan gop, lgi nhuan truac va
f f t

s a n thue. Viec so sanh lgi nhuan cua cac ky ke toan lien tiep
thc-o so tuyet doi va so tuang doi se cho thay xu hudng bien
doing cua chi tieu nay. Him nua, cung co the danh gia sir bien
■
> / \
doii cua ca cau lgi nhuan bang cach so sanh ty trong lgi nhuan
■* / 1

cii;a timg hoat dong trong tong so lgi nhuan qua cac nam de xem
xcit nguon lgi nhuan chinh ciia doanh nghiep la do hoat dong
naio mang lai.
Tuy nhien, viec phan tich tren moi chi dirng d mire do
khiai quat. De co danh gia chinh xae va chi tiet han can phai di
saiu phan tich tai chinh ciia doanh nghiep tren nhieu khia canh

221
cu the nlur trin h bav diroi dav.

* Phan tich kha nang thank, ' \in.

De danh i>ia kha naim thar toan co the sir dune, cic chi
tieu sau:
r y
He so kha nang Tong tai san
thanh toan tong quat Tong no phai tra
Day la chi tieu phan anh kha nang thanh toan ton» quat
cua doanh nghiep. Chi tieu nay the hien moi tuang quai giua
tong tai san ma doanh nghiep co the su dung de tra no vi tong
so no phai tra. Chi tieu nay cang Ion thi kha nang tham toan
tong quat cua doanh nghiep cung cang Ion. Ngurgc lai, n;u chi
tieu nay cang nho thi doanh nghiep cang mat dan kh: nang
thanh toan.
/ t

He so thanh toan Tai san ngan han

hien hanh N o ngan han
Chi tieu nay dugc dung de danh gia kha nang tham toan
tam thai cac khoan ng ngan han cua doanh nghiep. Cli tieu
/ /
phan anh moi quan he giua gia tri tai san ngan han la loai ai san
ma doanh nghiep co the chuyen doi thanh tien trong vorg mot
nam hay mot chu ky kinh doanh va cac khoan ng ngan lan la
cac khoan ng phai thanh toan cung trong khoang mot nan. Qua
do, co the thay dugc kha nang dap ung cac khoan ng ngm han
f __ r
cua doanh nghiep la cao hay thap. Thong thuang, neu cii tieu
nay xap xi 1 thi doanh nghiep co du kha nang thanh toin cac
/ r

khoan ng ngan han, ngugc lai neu chi tieu cang nho hai 1 thi
kha nang doanh nghiep thanh toan dugc cac khoan ng ngm han
cang thap.
Tuy nhien, c a cau cua tai san ngan han cung co anh iu ang

222
lan dvii \iui nan<j I hanh loan do cac loai l.’u ' n rman han co kha
*

Man;-' ln > in d'M thanh tien khac nhau. I ;■>:i;- >cac loai tai san
ngan a a i co tien \ a tai san tirong ihnnm ti 'n (vac khoan dau tir
ngan aai khong qua 3 thang, cd kha nar.j e.iu\en doi dc dang
thanh m)t hrgng tien xac dinh va khong cu nhieu rui ro trong
chuyen Joi thanh tien) dirge coi la loai tai sur co the sir dung
ngay <le thanh toan cac khoan ng. Do vay. de danh gia kha nang
thanh tom nhanh cac khoan ng ngan han co ih£ sir dung chi tieu
he so thmh loan nhanh. He so nay phan anh ty le giua tong so
tien va tram.’ ducmsi tien vai tons so na nuan han.
1le so _ Tong so tien va tuvmg duong tien
tlanh toan nhanh Tong so no ngan han
rong do, du lieu ve tong so tien va tuong duong tien
duoc la} tir bao cao luu chuyen tien te, ma so 70. Cac khoan dau
tu ngan lan dugc coi la tuong duong tien trinh bay tren bao cao
luu chu cn tien te chi bao gom cac khoan dau tu ngan han co
thdi hai thu hoi hoac dao han khong qua 3 thang ke tir ngay
mua klnan dau tu do. Vi du, ky phieu ngan hang, tin phieu kho
bac, chm g chi tien giri,... co thdi han thu hoi hoac dao han
khong qia 3 thang ke tir ngay mua.
Cli tieu nay cang Ion thi kha nang thanh toan nhanh cua
doanh nghiep cang cao. Tuy nhien, neu he so nay qua cao thi
cung klung tot vi nhu vay co nghia la doanh nghiep duy tri
lugng v)n bang tien qua ldn se lam giam toe do luan chuyen
vdn dan Jen hieu qua sir dung vdn thap.
Ncoai cac chi tieu tren, de phan anh kha nang thanh toan
ciic khom ng ngan han ciia doanh nghiep con cd the dung chi
tieu von hoat ddng thuan. Khac vdi cac he sd phan anh theo ty
le. chi teu nay phan anh mire chenh lech gifra tong sd tai san

223
ngan ban va tong so ng ngan ban.
• . Tong tai san Tong ng
Von hoat d o ns thuan - : , - . , „
• ngan nan ngan ban
Doanh nghiep can duy tri muc von boat dong tl uan hgp
lv de dam bao kha nanu thanh toan cac khoan no nuan ian. Khi
chi tieu nay giam sut thi doanh nghiep sc mat dan kha nang
r \

thanh toan. Trong truang hgp von hoat dong thuan < 0 thi co
nghTa la tong gia trj tai san ma doanh nghiep co the chuyen doi
thanh tien trong vong 1 nam hay 1 chu ky kinh doanh nho han
r \

cac khoan ng den han cung trong khoang thdi gian 1 n£m. Dieu
/ X

nay lam can can thanh toan mat can bang, doanh ngh e p phai
1 f

dung tai san dai han de thanh toan cac khoan ng den han
* Phan tich luong tien
X X

Khi phan tich luong tien, nha phan tich thuong ;ir dung
cac chi tieu nhu sau:

He so dam nhan n a Tong so ng

cua dong tien chuyen tien thuan tu HDKD
f ■» f

He so nay phan anh ty le giua tong so ng phai tra vai

X X * x X

luong tien rong (luu chuyen tien thuan) cua hoat dong; kinh
r

doanh, qua do thay du gc kha nang thanh toan cac khoar mg cua
^ t * t

doanh nghiep. Do tong so ng a day bao gom ca ng ngan b a n va

t

dai han nen he so nay phan anh kha nang thanh toan tcng quat
cac khoan ng. He so nay cang nho, kha nang thanh toar nig cua
doanh nghiep cang cao va ngugc lai.

He so dam nhan _ Co tl^rc

chi tra co tuc chuyen tien thuan tu I IDKD

224
 , ■»

Chi tieu trcn phan anh ty Ic giua tong gia tri co tuc vai
luong tien rong (luu chuyen tien thuan) cua hoat dong kinh
/ *

doanh, qua do thay dugc kha nang thanh toan co tuc cua doanh
f f / A *

nghiep. He so nay cang thap, kha nang thanh toan co tuc cua
doanh nghiep cang ldn va ngugc lai.
Ben canh viec phan tich luong tien de danh gia kha nSng
X X *»

thanh toan, luong tien con dugc phan tich de danh gia kha nang
X

tao tien cua doanh nghiep. Trong khi'a canh nay, nha phan tich
co the su dung cac chi tieu sau:
1 X X

He s6 ludng tiSn Lu11 chuyen tien thuan tu HDKD

tren doanh thu Doanh thu
/ X X 1

He so tren phan anh ty le giua luong tien rong (luu chuyen

• A ' f
tien thuan) cua hoat dong kinh doanh vdi doanh thu, qua ao thay
dugc kha nang tao tien tir doanh thu cua doanh nghiep. Chi tieu
x / /• t

nay cho thay “chat lugng” cua doanh thu. Doanh nghiep co the
c6 doanh thu ldn nhung van kho khan trong thanh toan do
doanh thu bao gom ca doanh thu tra cham lam doanh nghiep
thieu tien de trang trai cac khoan ng. He so tren cang cao, kha
x x w

nang tao tien tir doanh thu cang ldn va cang tao dieu kien tot
cho hoat dong thanh toan cua doanh nghiep va ngugc lai.

He s6 lu6ng tiSn ^ u 11 chuyen tien thuan tir HDKD

tren tai san Tong tai san

Chi tieu nay cung dugc sir d\ing de danh gia kha nang tao
,j » %

tien nhung d muc do quat han, phan anh mire do tao tien tir
viec sir dung toan bo tai san cua doanh nghiep. Tuong tu he so
tren, chi tieu nay cang ldn, kha nang tao ti6n tir tai san cang cao
X X /

va cang tao dieu kien tot cho hoat dong thanh toan cua doanh

225
nghiep va nguac lai.
Trong cac chi tieu tren su dunev_ iuu ciiuven tien thuan tit
^ ./

hoat dong kinh doanh la hoat dong c a ban cua doanh nghep.
Ngoai ra, ckc chi tieu nhan tich luong tien noi tren co the dJOc
m o rong thanh liru chuyen tien thuan trong ky thay cho luu
t \ \

chuyen tien thuan tur hoat dong kinh doanh. ben canh dc sir
dung chi tieu mire do tao tien tir boat dong kinh doanh dc sc
sanh muc do tao tien cua hoai dong nay vai toan bo hoat d5ng
ciia doanh nghiep:

Mire do tao ti£n _ Luu chuySn f i r , thuan tir HDKD

tir HDKD Liru chuyen tien thuan trong k>

* Phan tich hieu qua heat dong

De phan tich hieu qua boat dong, doanh nghiep thircmg sir
dung nhung chi tieu sau:
f f

He so quay vong ___________ Gia vort hang ban

hang ton kho Gia tri hang hoa ton kho binh quan
Trong chi tieu nay, mau sd co the la gia tri hang hoa ton
s r t

kho binh quan hoac gia trj hang hoa ton kho cuoi ky. T u y nhien,
%

su dung gia tri hang hoa ton kho binh quan se tang tinh chinh
xac cua chi tieu. Hon nua, he so nay phan anh su quay vong cua
\ >v f , ' ^ \ '

hang ton kho dien ra trong suot ca ky nen viec lay mau so la so
r r f f

binh quan se hap ly h an la chi lay so cuoi ky. Trong do, gia tri
\

hang hoa ton kho binh quan d u ac tinh nhu sau:

Gia tri hane Gia tri hang hoa Gia tri hang iioa
hoa t6ri kho t° n ky ton kho cuoi ky
binh quan 2

226
 lie so quay vong hang hoa ton kho phan anh so lan ma
hang hoa ton kho dugc ban trong kv ke toan. Day la chi tieu
quan trgng cho thay nang luc hoat dong kinh doanh cua doanh
nghiep. Neu he so nay cao thi tinh hinh tieu thu cua doanh
r

nghiep thudng dugc danh gia tot va ngugc lai. Mat khac, xet
7 ' 9
tren goc do luan chuyen von, doanh nghiep co he so quay vong
cao thudng doi hoi muc dau tu thap cho hang ton kho so vdi
doanh nghiep co cung muc doanh thu nhung co he so quay vong
/ r r f

thap. Neu he so nay thap thudng phan anh tinh hinh doanh
nghiep bi u dong hang hoa do dir tru qua mire hoac hang hoa
*

tieu thu cham do chua dap ung dugc yeu cau cua thi trudng.
r \ r
Tuy nhien, neu mire ton kho cua doanh nghiep qua thap thi cung
*> / / >
co the gay anh hudng khong tot vi neu muc ton kho khong du
dap ung cho tieu thu se lam giam hieu qua hoat dong kinh
doanh cua doanh nghiep.
/■ *

Ben canh he so tren ngudi phan tich cung co the su dung

/ \

chi tieu so ngay cua mot vong quay hang ton kho:
/

So ngay cua mot vong So ngay cua ky phan tich

quay hang ton kho ^ e so quay vong hang ton kho

Trong do, so ngay cua ky phan tich co the la tinh theo

thang (30 ngay), quy (90 ngay) hoac nam (360 ngay).
t /

Chi tieu nay the hien so ngay trung binh cua mQt vong
* 1 X

quay hang ton kho hay noi cach khac, de hang ton kho quay
dugc mot vong can bao nhieu ngay. Do vay, ngugc vdi h? so
tren, chi tieu nay cang nho, thdi gian quay vong cang ng&n thi
toe do luan chuyen hang ton kho cang ldn, kha nang hoat dong
kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep cang tot va ngugc lai.

227
 De danh gia toe do thu hoi cac khoan phai thu, doanh
nghiep co the sir dung chi tieu lie so quay vong cac khoan phai
thu:

He so quay vong cac Doanh so ban chiu

khoan phai thu 35 ^ binh quan cac khoan phai thu

Trong chi tieu tren, mau so co the la so binh quan hoac so

r /

cuoi ky. Tuy nhien, voi ly do tuang tu nhu a chi tieu he so quay
vong hang ton kho, mau so nen lay la so binh quan. Cu the, mau
so dugc tinh nhu sau:

S 6 du binh khoan phai Cac khoan phai

quan cac ^au ky l^u cu^ ‘ ky
khoan phai thu 2
f

He so quay vong cac khoan phai thu phan anh hieu qua
y r '

thu hoi ng. He so nay cang cao, chimg to doanh nghiep thu hoi
cac khoan ng cang nhanh. Dieu nay dugc danh gia la tot vi giam
f r * * ^ f

dugc von bi chiem dung. Tuy nhien, neu he so nay qua cao co
the se anh h u a n g khong tot den qua trinh tieu thu, lam giam
doanh thu do p h u a n g thirc tin dung qua han che. Vi tren thi
truang hien nay, viec mua ban chiu la pho bien va neu doanh
nghiep khong co chinh sach ban tra cham m em deo co the se
khong thu hut dugc khach hang.
Ben canh he so quay vong cac khoan phai thu, nguc/i phan
tich con co the sir dung chi tieu so ngay ciia mot vong quay
khoan phai thu de danh gia kha nang thu hoi ng cua doanh
nghiep:

So ngay ciia mot vong _ So ngay cua ky phan tich

quay cac khoan phai thu He so quay vong cac khoan phai thu
 Trong do. so ngay cua ky phan tich co the la tinh theo
thang (30 ngay), quy (90 ngay) hoac nam (360 ngay).
r r

Neu chi tieu so ngay cua mot vong quay cac khoan phai
thu tinh dugc Ion hon thcri han thanh toan thong thuong cua cac
hgp dong ban hang tra cham thi co nghTa la doanh nghiep da
* 9 '
khong kiem soat tot cac khoan ng phai thu, dieu nay la khong
t r f

tot do lam tang von bi chiem dung, tang chi phi ng qua han va
1 iV / >

co the dan den khong thu hoi dugc ng.

* ■*

Be danh gia kha nang kiem soat cac khoan phai tra, doanh
t A > t

nghiep co the su dung he so quay vong cac khoan phai tra:

*

He so quay vong _ Gia tri hang mua tra cham

cac khoan phai tra So du binh quan cac khoan phai tra
t \

Cung tucmg tu nhu cr he so quay vong hang ton kho va he

f r ~ f

so quay vong cac khoan phai thu, trong he so tren, mau so co

the Ia so binh quan hoac socuoi ky nhung su dung so cuoi ky se
r

tang tinh chinh xac cua chi tieu, hem nua, he so nay phan anh su
^ /

quay vong cua cac khoan phai tra dien ra trong suot ca ky nen
* X * f i t
viec lay so binh quan la hgp ly thay vi chi lay so cuoi ky. Cu
the, mau so dugc tinh nhu sau:

So du binh Cac khoan phai Cac khoan phai

quan cac tra d iu ky tra cu6i ky
khoan phai tra 2
A < 1

He so nay phan anh kha nang kiem soat cac khoan ng phai
tra ciia doanh nghiep. Neu kiem soat khong tot, doanh nghiep co
1 X

the bo lo cac co hoi dugc giam gia mua hang khi thanh toan tien
scrm hem thcri han tra cham dugc quy dinh, hon nua doanh
nghiep se bi giam uy tin neu thanh toan tien cham hon thoi han

229
quy dinh. Trong trudng bop nay, co the doan!) nghiep sC' khdrg
duac tiep tuc mua tra cham trong tuang lai. lam anh huana xau
den hoat d o n e kinh doanh.
O '

Ben canh he so nay, cung co the sir dung chi tieu so ni:ay
cua mot vong quay cac khoan phai tra de danh gia kha nang
kiem so.ii cac khoan ng cua doanh nghiep:

So ngay cua mot vong So ngay ciia ky phan tich

quay cac khoan phai tra He so quay vong cac khoan phai tra
/ *

Trong do, so ngay cua ky phan tich co the la tinh theo

thang (30 ngay), quy (90 ngay) hoac nam (360 ngay).
* /

Ngudi phan tich co the so sanh chi tieu so ngay cua mot
vong quay cac khoan phai tra vdi thdi ban thanh toan thong
thudng cua cac hgp dong mua hang tra cham. N eu chi tieu nay
* /

ldn han co nghTa la doanh nghiep da khong kiem soat tot cac
khoan ng phai tra cua minh. Dieu nay co the se gay ra anh
t r

hudng xau doi vdi hoat dong kinh doanh.

* Phan tich kha nang sinh lai
f t

Phan tich kha nang sinh lai rat quan trong, dac biet gan
' » /

lien vdi lgi ich cua cac nha dau tu cung nhu cac nha cung cap
tin dung. Dc danh gia kha nang sinh lai, ngudi phan tich co the
sir dung cac chi tieu sau:
- Ty suat lgi nhuan tren doanh thu:
Ty suat lgi nhuan sau _ Lgi nhuan sau thue T N D N
thue tren doanh thu Doanh thu thuan x * ^
Trong chi tieu tren, mau so co the sir dung tong doanh thu
hoac doanh thu thuan. Tuy nhien, nen sir dung doanh thu thuan
de tang tinh chinh xae ciia chi tieu do doanh thu thuan phan anh

230
r ia tri doanh thu thirc sir dirge thirc hien trong ky. Chi tscu nay
danh gia so lg i nhuan thirc te de lai cho doanh nghiep chiem hao
r.hieu phan trong doanh thu thuar. Do vay, chi tieu nay cang cao
t.iii nhan anh kha nang sinh Iai cua doanh nghiep cang Ian.
■> t * T

Ben canh do. de loai tru anh hudne cua yeu to thue thu
• » W. <
r r 1

nhan doanh nehiep la veu to ma doanh nghien khong kiem soat

v— * i * W •* C /

du>;c. nguoi phan tich co the sir dung chi tieu ty suat loi nhuan
truoc thue tren doanh thu:
Tv suat kn nhuan trudc Lai nhuan truoc thue TNDN
thue tren doanh thu Doanh thu thuan '
t y

■Ty suat lgi nhuan tren tong tai san (ROA):

De danh gia kha nang sinh lai ciia doanh nghiep mot cach
/

khai quat lion, nguoi phan tich thuang sir dung chi tieu ty suat
■* 1

lgi nhuan tren tong tai san. Chi tieu nay phan anh mot dong tai
san binh quan "ua doanh nghiep tao ra bao nhieu dong lgi nhuan
trudc hoac sau thue.
Tv suat lai nhuan sau Loi nhuan sau thue TNDN
.1 ■ - = ------ :—r r r — 7 x 100 (%)
time tren tong tai san Tai san binh quan v ’
Trong chi tieu nay, mau so dugc dung co the la gia tri tai
* ^ t f

san binh quan hoac gia tri tai san cuoi ky. Tuy nhien, do tu so
/

trong chi tieu nay phan anh lgi nhuan dugc tao ra trong suot ca
^ t > r f

ky nen viec lay mau so la so binh quan se hgp ly han la chi lay
so cuoi ky. Cu the, gia tri tai san binh quan dugc tinh nhu sau:

Tong TS dau ky + Tong TS cuoi ky

TS binh quan = -------------------------

> r
Cung vdi ly do nham loai bo anh huang cua thue thu nhap
' r

:loanh nghiep. ngudi phan tich co the sir dung chi tieu ty suat lgi

231
 r y
nhuan truac thue tren tong tai san:
f t

Ty suat lai nhuan truac _ Lai nhuan truac thue TNDN

thue tren tong tai san ~ Tai san binh quan x 100 ( />)
y * % r
Mat khac, de loai bo anh huong cua ca cau nguon von,
ngirdi phan tich co the su dung chi tieu ty suat lgi nhuan ruroc
r *

thue va lai vay tren tong tai san. Hai doanh nghiep voi cunj, m ot
gia tri tong tai san va hieu qua su dung tai san nhu nhau mumg
t r \ f f

neu co cau nguon von khac nhau thi chi tieu ty suat lgi rhuan
*

tren tong tai san se khac nhau do co chi phi lai vay khac nhau
*

lam cho lgi nhuan khac nhau. Do do, nham loai bo anh hromg
9 r t \ f % r r ^*
cua yeu to co cau nguon von bang cach loai tru yeu to la Men
vay, chi tieu ty suat lgi nhuan truac thue va lai vay tren toig tai
%

san se dugc sir dung:

Ty suSt lgi nhuan Ufi nhuan truac thua

truac thue va lai vay tnin/
. z „c = -------------------------------------- x 10(%)
vay tren tong TS TS binh quan

- Ty suat lgi nhuan tren von chu so huu (ROE):

De danh gia kha nang sinh lai cua von chu so hih cua
doanh nghiep, nguoi phan tich co the su dung chi tieu ty suit lgi
nhuan sau thue tren von chu so huu, chi tieu nay chi rc nnot
dong von chu so huu tao ra bao nhieu dong lgi nhuan sai thiue
thu nhap doanh nghiep:
Ty suat lgi nhuan sau _ Lgi nhuan sau thue TNDN
thue tren von chu scr huu ~ Von chu scr huu binh quan x °'
/ /

Cung tuong tu nhu d chi tieu ty suat lgi nhuan sai thiue
* f + 9

tren tong tai san, d chi tieu nay, mau so co the sir dung vdi cchu
/ /m
so huu binh quan hoac von chu scr huu cuoi ky nhung nn sir
dung von chu so hiru binh quan voi ly do tucmg tu .

232
 Cung vcri ly do de loai bo anh huang cua thue thu nhap
doanh nghiep, nguai phan tich co the sir dung chi tieu ty suat lgi
nhuan truoc thue tren von chu so hiru
Ty suat lai , nhuan truoc thue —Lgi
■■■—,nhuan truac
— thue TNDN 1
tren von chu so hiru Von chu so hiru binh quan
xlOO (%)
Trong khi sir dung cac chi tieu tren, nguoi phan tich cung
co the xem xet moi quan he va tac dong lan nhau giua cac chi
tieu nay. Moi quan he do dugc the hien nhu sau:

Ty suat lgi nhuan _ Ty suat lgi nhuan He so quay

tren tong TS tren doanh thu X vong cua TS

Trong do:
r %

He so quay vong _ Doanh thu thuan

cua tai san Tai san binh quan
t

He so quay vong cua tai san phan anh trong ky kinh

f

doanh, tai san quay dugc bao nhieu vong. He so nay cang Ion
thi hieu qua sir dung tai san cang cao.
N hu vay, ty suat lgi nhuan tren tong tai san chiu anh
* * \ ' * A
hircrng cua hai yeu to la ty suat lgi nhuan tren doanh thu va he so
quay vong cua tai san. Hai yeu to nay co tac dong cung chieu
/ / *
den ty suat lgi nhuan tren tong tai san.
Ben canh cac chi tieu tren, nguai phan tich cung co the sir
/ ^ 1 #

dung chi tieu suat hao phi von de danh gia kha nang sinh lai cua
doanh nghiep nhu sau:
„ i , , , - Von kinh doanh_____
uat ao p i von n}lu^n jj0gc [)oanh thu

Day la chi tieu phan anh de co mot dong lgi nhuan hay

233
doanh thu thi doanh nghiep phai dau tu bao nhieu dong von. Chi
tieu nay cang nho thi kha nang sinh lai cua doanh nghiep cang
cao va ngugc lai, chi tieu nay cang lan thi kha nang sinh lai cua
f 9

doanh nghiep cang thap. Trong he so nay, tuy theo muc dich
1 r

phan tich ma nguoi phan tich co the lua chon cac chi tieu von
kinh doanh, lgi nhuan va doanh thu khac nhau. Chi tieu von
* y r \ 9 9

kinh doanh co the la tong so nguon von neu ngudi phan tich
/ ' 9

muon danh gia kha nang sinh lai chung cua toan bo nguon von,
■* r f r '

co the la von chu sd huu neu chi muon danh gia kha nang sinh
t * * / r

lai cua rieng von chu sd huu hoac cung co the la tong so von
vay de danh gia hieu qua cua von vay. Chi tieu lgi nhuan dugc
■» r 9 # /

lira chon co the la lgi nhuan trudc thue neu nguoi phan tich
t

muon danh gia kha nan s sinh lai chung va loai trir anh hudng
/ *> 9 /
cua thue thu nhap doanh nghiep, co the la lgi nhuan sau thuc thu
9 9 */ •
nhap doanh nghiep neu muon biet kha nang sinh lai sau khi da
* X

lam nghTa vu vdi nha nude, co the la lgi nhuan gop ve ban hang
9 r 9 9
va cung cap djch vu neu muon biet kha nang sinh lai trudc khi
loai trir chi phi ban hang va chi phi quan ly. Chi tieu doanh thu
* ' 9 * x
co the la doanh thu ve ban hang va cung cap dich vu neu ngudi
phan tich muon danh gia kha nang sinh lai cua hoat dong san
xuat kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep, co the la doanh thu cua tat
f 9 #

ca cac hoat dong kinh doanh neu muon danh gia kha nang smh
lai chung cua moi hoat dong kinh doanh cua doanh nghiep.
* %

Vdi cac cong ty co phan, ben canh cac chi tieu tren, ngudi
phan tich con sir dung cac chi tieu phan anh kha nang sinh lai co
9 9 \ ^ >

lien quan den von co phan, cu the bao gom nhung chi tieu sau:
/ n % *

Lai c a ban tren von co phan pho thong:

234
 9 « y'

Lai c a ban tren Lgi nhuan sau thue - Co tuc co phieu uu dai
von co phan = 771 I~TV 77T7
,; ,\ Von co phan pho thong
pho thong 1 * b
/ r *> \ y

Chi tieu nay cho biet thu nhap tren von co phan pho
f t

thong la cao hay thap. He so nay cang cao thi kha nang sinh lai
cua doanh nghiep cang ldn va ngugc lai.
n f *»

- Lai c a ban tren co phieu pho thong:

/ i + r

Lai c a ban Lgi nhuan sau thue - Co tuc co phieu uu dai

tren co phieu = Z1 I 777 . ; , .
ph6thong So co phieu pho thong
/ 1 / y

Chi tieu nay cho biet moi co phieu pho thong thu dugc
A ' '

may dong lgi nhuan. Trong dieu kien kinh doanh thong thuong
*

va khong co thay ddi dac biet trong chinh sach chia co tuc thi
chi tieu nay cang cao phan anh kha nang sinh lai cua doanh
nghiep cang lan.
- He so lgi tuc co phan:
f t r
He so lgi tuc
■> \ 1
Lai co ban tren co phieu ^ i f

co phan Gia thi truong cua moi co phieu

Chi tieu nay phan anh mot dong co dong dau tu vao mua
c6 phieu (theo gia thi trudng hien tai) tuang ung vdi bao nhieu
dong lgi nhuan. N h u vay, chi tieu nay cang cao cang co kha
’I

n;lng doanh nghiep sinh lai lan va cang thu hut cac nha dau tu
* r

mua co phieu cua doanh nghiep.

/ 1 /

- He so gia ca co phieu so voi lgi nhuan:

He so gia ca co phieu _ Gia thi trudng cua moi cd phieu
so vdi lgi nhuan Lai ca ban tren co phieu
f t \

N gugc voi he so lgi tuc co phan, chi tieu nay phan anh
'V t x X 1

moi dong lgi nhuan tuong ung vai bao nhieu dong ma co dong

235
phai dau tir de mua co phieu (theo gia thi trudng hien tai). N hu
vay, khac vdi chi tieu trudc, chi tieu nay cang thap thi cang co
kha nang doanh nghiep sinh lai cao, doanh nghiep cang trd
thanh mot muc tieu hap dan ciia cac nha dau tu.
t

* Phan tich don bay tai chinh

f r \ t

Don bay tai chinh dugc phan anh qua co cau nguon von
cua doanh nghiep va cung qua do the hien mire do rui ro tai
chinh. Neu nguon von vay ng chiem ty trong ldn trong tong
\ %

nguon von, doanh nghiep se phai chiu sire ep ldn ve mat tai
* f

chinh va mire do rui ro tai chinh cao. Ngugc lai, khi nguon von
chu sd hiru chiem ty trong ldn, doanh nghiep se tu chu cao trong
X /

tai chinh, muc do rui ro tai chinh se giam. Tuy nhien, nguon von
* r

vay ng co the dugc su dung huu hieu trong huy dong von, dac
biet la cho cac d u an dai han. Do vay, doanh nghjep can phan
t \ f * +

tich co cau nguon von, duy tri co cau nay a muc thich hgp de
giam bdt rui ro tai chinh nhung dong thdi dap ung dugc cac yeu
i \ r

cau ve von cho hoat dong kinh doanh.

J 1 **

De phan tich don bay tai chinh, doanh nghiep co the sir
dung chi tieu ty le ng. Ben canh do, co the s u dung he so von
t •* /

vay ng tren von chu sd huu de phan anh moi tuong quan true
r y w

tiep giua hai nguon von nay:

t r i '

He so von vay n g _ Tong ng phai tra

tren von chu sd huu von chu sd huu
f f . f

He so von vay n g tren von chu sd huu cang ldn, muc do

rui ro tai chinh cua doanh nghiep se cang cao va ngugc lai.
_ 1 1

Ngoai ra, cung co the xem xet don bay tai chinh cua
doanh nghiep tren mot goc do khac, do la he so dam nhan lai
vay:
 I 10 so dam LN truac thue va chi phi lai vay (EBIT)
n :un lai vay ( ^ j p^j ]aj vay
r r r

Chi tieu nay cho biet lgi nhuan truac thueva laivay gap
\ \ f

bao ’-hieu lan chi phi lai vay. Nguon von vay ng cang lan, lai
vay <e cang cao, he so dam nhan lai vay cua doanh nghiep se
* 9 9 '
c a n g thap va dan den kha nang bu dap chi phi lai vay tu lgi
nhna i truac thue va lai vay cung se cang thap.
y

Vai muc tieu phan tich tai chinh cu the, nha phan tich se
lira cion cac phuang phap phu hgp vao noi dung phan tich tinh
bin h tai chinh doanh nghiep tren nhung khia canh khac nhau
' / y r f

n h a n cung cap thong tin can thiet cho cac doi tugng co quan
tfim.

237
 C hitong 13

CO CAU VO N - MOT SO KHAI NIEM • ft

CO BAN

9 \ 9 9

Chuong nay se thao luan cac quyet dinh ve co cau von

% 9
trong dieu kien khong co thue va d thi trudng hoan hao. Trong
nhung moi trudng n h u vay, co cau von cua cac cong ty nhu the
x % _____ r

nao khong phai la dieu dang quan tam. Tiep theo chuong nay se
f t \ *

thao luan co cau von trong moi trudng co su ton tai cua thue.
9

Ket luan cua chuong la huy dong thong qua hinh thuc di vay se
\ 9

lam tang dong thdi ca gia tri cua cong ty va gia tri von cua chu
(equity).

13.1. Cac cau hoi ve co* cau von va hoc thuyet Pie.
' *

Cong ty nen lira ch<?n ty le giua von no va von cua chu

9 9 9 9 9 9

nhu the nao? Co cau von cua cong ty the nao la tot nhat. Gia tri
cua cong ty duac the hien nhu sau:
V= B+ S
Trong do: V: Gia tri cong ty
B: Gia tri thi trudng cua von no
9

S: Gia tri thi trudng cua von cua chu t

1 *

Phuang trinh tren d uac the hien bang mo hinh sau:

238
 Hmh 11-13.1: C:rcuu von

Gia tri conn !v

Trai phieu 60%

Co phieu 40%

\ Thiem vu cua cac nha quan ly tai chinh cua cong ty la

r ^

phai l..m tang gia trj cong ty den muc co the.

3 day co hai cau hoi chung ta can thao luan:
1 # ^ 0

t . Vi sao cac co dong lai quan tainden viec toi da hoa gia
' ' f

tri C ue cong ty? Gia tri cua cong ty bang tong gia tri von vay va
f f *

gia 'tri von cua chu. Vay, vi sao cac co dong khong quan tam
r f r

den chien luge chi toi da lgi ich cua minh?

* 0

3. Cong ty phai co ty le giua von vay va von cua chu nhu

the n i b de toi da lgi ich cua cac co dong?

.3.2. Toi da gia tri cong tvvatoi da loi fch codong

n • o v • d

t 0 9

Vi du sau day mo ta ca cau von vira toi da gia tri cong ty

f y

vira to da lgi ich cua co dong.

Vi du: Gia sir gia tri thi truong cua J.J. Sprint Co. la
$100 0 Hien tai toan bo von cua cong ty deu do co dong dong
) ' J r H, t

gop voi tong so co phieu la 100 va gia thi trudng cua moi co
•A. '
phieiu a $10. Cung gia sir rang J.J. Sprint du djnh se vay $500.
f \ > 1

So t:iei $500 nay se dugc sir dung de thanh toan cho cac co

239
dong duai hinh thuc co tuc phu them. Moi co phieu se d u a c
f t

thanh toan $5. Sau khi vay, c a cau von cua cong ty co ur thay
y f \ *

doi. Von cua cong ty dugc hinh thanh tu hai nguon. Von vay va
von cua chu. Sir thay doi ve c a cau von khong lam thay d!>i hoat
\

dong dau tu cua cong ty. Vay gia tri cua cong ty se la bao nhieu
sau su thay doi c o cau von nay?
f \ r * t r

Cac nha quan ly nhan thay rang, neu thay doi co ciu von
se co mot trong ba kha nang sau xay ra:
1. C-ia tri cua cong ty se lan han gia tri ban dau (>$ .000)
2. Gia tri cong ty bang S I 000
3. Gia tri cong ty nho han $1000
Sau khi tinh toan, cac nha quan y tin rang gia tri cui cong
ty se khong thay doi nhieu han $250. N h u vay gia tri con* t y co
the trong khoang $1,250; $1000 va $750. C a cau von bin dau
* I / A

va ba kha nang co the xay ra sau khi thay doi ca cau voi d u g c
trinh bay cr bang d u a i day.
f ^ ^

Gia tri cong ty = Gia tri von vay + gia tri von cua ;h u

Sau khi tra co tuc (3 kha r.ing)

Von vay I II III

Von ng 0 $500 $500 $5)0

Von cua chu $1000 750 500 250

Gia trj cong ty $1000 $1250 $1000 $7J0

Gia tri von cua chu nho h an $1000 a ca ba kha nanj. D ie u

i \ r

nay co the dugc giai thich bang hai cach. Cach thu nha', b a n g
1 / 1

tren the hien gia tri von cua ch u sau khi cong ty thanh bam co
1 1 4
tuc bo sung cho co dong. Vi tien phai chi ra de thanh toancc.) tuc

240
the hien sir giam di trong gia tri cua cung ty. Thir hai, neu trong
tuang lai cong ty hi giai the, cac co dong sc chi duac thanh toan
sau khi cac chu ng da titg c thanh toan day du. Chinh vi vay,
von vay la mot ganh nang cua cong ty, lam giam gia tri von cua
chu.
' \ /

Tat nhien, cac nha quan !y nhan thue dugc rang, ket qua a
bang tren chi la ket qua mang tiflfc. dai dien. Bay gia chung ta co
* % t

the xac djnh phan tra cho cac co dong duai ba kha nang.

Thanh toan cho co dong sau khi

♦ t r

thay doi co cau von

I III- HI
Thu nhap tir von (capital gain) -250 -500 -750

Co tire 500 500 500

Lai hoac lo cua co dong 250 0 -250

1 / * f

Khong ai co the biet trudc mot cach chac ch an la kha nang

%

nao se xay ra. Tuy nhien, gia sir rang cac nha quan ly tin tudng
i r // r
kha nang I co the xay ra nhat. Ho se quyet dinh thay d o r ca cau
von cua cong ty, nhu vay cac co dong co the lai $250. Chinh vi
vay, mac dau gia co phieu giam tir $1000 xuong $750, song cac^
* * ^
co dong nhan dugc $500 co tuc. Gia tri cong ty cung se tang
$250.
\

Gia sir, cac nha quan ly tin tudng rang kha nang thir ba co
^ 1 f

nhieu trien vong xay ra nhat. Trong trudng hop nay, ho khong
nen thay doi c a cau von bdi vi cac co dong se lo $250. Chinh vi
vay gia trj co phan giam tir $1000 xuong con $250, cac co dong
nhan duac $500 co tire.

241
 Cuoi cung, neu cac nha quan ly tin rang kha nang thu hai
se xay ra. Thay doi co cau von se khong anh hudng den lgi ich
cua cac co dons va cia tri cua cong tv cunu khono co ui thav
doi. Vi du tren giai thich vi sao cac nha quan ly non cd gang
thay doi gia tri cong ty. Su thay doi trong c a cau von se mang
lai lgi ich cho cac co dong khi va chi khi gia tri cong ty tang len.
N gugc lai, su thay doi ca cau von se lam thiet hai cho cac co
/ i

dong neu nhu su thay doi nay lam cho gia tri cong ty giam
xuong.
A £ £ Jk

13.3. Co the xae dinh diro’c mot co■cau von toi iru khong?
• I •

13.3.1. Modigliani va Miller: Hoc thuyet I (khong co thuS)

Modigliani va Miller (MM) co nhung tranh luan co sire

r \ * - *

thuyet phuc rang mot cong ty khong the thay doi tong gia tri cua
\ * f f

no bang cach thay doi ca cau von. Noi cach khac gia tri cua
1 r t

cong ty khong thay doi d cac ca cau von khac nhau va khong
r r r ' ’

ton tai mot ca cau von toi uu doi vdi cac co dong cua cong ty.
/ /

Ket qua kha bi quan nay goi la hoc thuyet MMI.

% r

Hay xem xet mot cong ty 100 phan tram von cua chu.
1 / '

Cong ty co the thu dugc mot khoi lugng thu nhap thuan tiiy
hang nam bang Earn. Toan bo khoi lugng thu nhap thuan tuy
1 1

nay dugc tra cho co dong dudi hinh thirc co tuc. Gia tri cua
cong ty 100 phan tram von cua chu nay dugc ky hieu la Vu. Neu
*

nhu mot ca nhan mua 15 phan tram cong ty. Anh ta phai thanh
toan ,15Vu va se nhan dugc .15Eam dudi hinh thirc co tire moi
♦

nam. Nghiep vu nay co the dugc mo ta nhu sau:

Chien luge I (mua 15% cong ty 100% von cua chu)

242
*«

Dau tir ban dau Co tire hang nam

.! 5 Vu 15 bam
___________________ 1________ _ *
f

Bay gicr chung ta hay xem xet mol cong ty co ca von vay
va von eua chu. Gia tri cua co phieu duoc ky hien la SL va B la
ky hieu gia tri cua trai phieu. Nhu vay, gia trj cua cong ty nay
(VL) se bang:
VL = SL + B
Ngoai sir khac nhau ve ca cau von, gia sir hai cong ty
/ f

(cong ty 100% von ciia chu va cong ty co von vay) la tuong

^ > f

dong. Dieu nay co nghTa la cong ty co von vay cung se thu dirge
lgi nhuan truoc khi thanh toan lai tien vay la Earn. Gia sir, cac
chu ng nhan dugc lai tien cho vay la Int, nhu vay co tuc cac co
dong se nhan dugc hang nSm la:
Earn - Int.
r \ + f
Neu mot ca nhan mua 15 phan trSm c6 phieu cua cong ty

nay sS phai tra .15 SL va thu dugc .15 (Earn - Int) moi n5m.
Nghiep vu nay co the dugc mo ta nhu sau:
Chien luge II (mua 15% co phieu cua cong ty co von ng)
Von dau tu ban dau Co tuc nhan dugc hang nam
.15 SL .15 (Earn - Int)
f * r
Chien luge II rui ro hon chien luge I bcri vi chien luge II
lien quan den cong ty co von vay.
Bay gia hay xem xet chien luge cua mot nha dau tu khac
(nha dau tu thu ba). Ke hoach cua anh ta nhu sau:
1. Vay . 15BL tir ngan hang

243
 2. Sir dung tien vay cong von cua ban than de mua i5
phan tram co phieu cua cong ty 100 phan tram von cua chu.
Chien luge III (mua 15% co phieu cua cong ty 100 % v3n
' / t r

cua chu bang von cua ban than ket hop vai von vay).
Dau tu ban dau Co tire nhan duac hang nam sau khi :ra
lai tien vay
. 15Vu - . 15BL . 15Eam - . 15Int
r t

Bay gia hay so sanh chien luge III vai chien luge II, tu >u
t \ r r

so sanh nay MM da xay dung nen hoc thuyet ve von so I.

Chien luge II Chien luge III
Dau tu ban dau Dau tu ban dau
.15 SL . 15Vu - . 15BL
* X t t

Vi co tuc thuan tuy cua 2 chien luge nhu nhau, vay von
dau tu ban dau cua 2 chien luge phai bang nhau. Hay:
.15 SL = .I5Vu - .15 BL
Vu = BL + SL
Hay Vu = VL
Hoc thuyet MMI (khong thue):
Neu co hai cong ty tuang dong: Mot cong ty 100 phan
W *

tram von cua chu va mot cong ty co von vay, thi hai cong ty
do co cung gia tri

13.3.2. Modigliani va Miller: Hoc thuyet II (khong thue)

Vi cac co dong a cong ty co von vay se rui hon so vai cac

co dong d cong ty tuong dong 100 phan tram von cua chu. Ly
1 r

do nay cho phep chung ta phat trien hoc thuyet MM II. Theo

244
 / /

MM. ty le hoan von cua chu co quan he ty le thuan voi c a cau

/ / f

von, vi sir rui ro von cua chu tang len khi ty le: von vay trong c a
cau von tans len.
r

1. Vi chi phi von binh quan duac xac djnh bai cong thue
sau:
rW A CC = rB* B/(B+S) + rS*(B+S)
> /

Trong do: rB : ty le lai tien vay (chi phi von vay)

y f f

rS: ty le thu hoi von cua chu (chi phi von cua chu)
rWACC : Chi phi von binh quan
f

B: Gia tri cua von vay

S: Gia tri von cua chu
/ t

Theo hoc thuyet MMI, doi vai mot cong ty nao do, chi phi
f •* t

von binh quan khong thay doi va khong phu thuoc vao c a cau
/ /
von. Hay noi cach khac, trong mot moi truong khong co thue,
r y r

chi phi von binh quan phai bang chi phi von cua mot cong ty
tu a n g dong 100% von cua chu (ro). (rWACC = rO).
Theo hoc thuyet MM II, ty le thu hoi von cua chu rS cua
mot cong ty co von vay co the dugc xac dinh bang cong thue
sau:
rS = rO +(B/S)*(rO-rB)
Theo cong thue tren, ty le thu hoi von cua chu la mot
' ' r r 9

phuang trinh tuyen tinh ma bien so la ty le giua von vay va von

cua chu.
^ f f

Hinh sau mo ta moi quan he giua chi phi von cua chu, rS
r f

va ty le giua vdn ng va von cua chu B/S.

245
 Hinh H-13.2: Hoc thuyet MM II & moi truang khong co thue

Chi phi von: r

Ty le gifra von ng va
von cua chu (B/S)
r \ 1

Hoc thuyet M M da chi ra rang cac nha quan ly khong the

1 ^ * m r w

thay doi gia tri cua cong ty bang cach thay doi lai co cau von
cua cong ty. Va chi phi von binh quan cua cong ty khong thay
i f f * \ r

doi khi ca cau von cua cong ty thay doi. Mac dau vay, cac ket
luan tren cua M M lai dua tren cac gia thuyet khong co tinh hien
r r ^
thuc. Hoc thuyet nay da loai tru su tac dong cua thue va cac chi
phi nhu chi phi pha san va cac chi phi khac.

13.4. Thue va tac dong cua thue

Gia su rang, tat ca cac luong tien khong thay doi va vo

tan. EBIT la tong luong tien cua cong ty truoc khi tra lai tien
r r *
vay va thue va neu chung ta bo qua anh huong cua khau hao va
f > '
cac khoan muc khac nhu thue cac loai thi thu nhap chiu thue cua
cong ty 100 phan tram von cua chu chinh bang EBIT.
So thue cong ty nay phai nop la: EBIT x Tc

246
 (Tc : Ty le thue thu nhap cung ty)
Thu nhap sau khi nop cac loai thue thu nhap cong ty la:
EBIT x (1 - Tc)
/ r e

Con doi voi cong ty co von vay, thu nhap chiu thue cua no
la: I.BIT - rB*B
* 0 r 0
Tong so thue thu nhap cong ty co von vay phai nop la: Tc
(EBIT - rB*B)
So tien cac co dong thue su nhan duoc d cong ty co von
vav la:
J

EBIT - rB*B - Tc (EBIT - rB*B) = (EBIT - rB*B) x (1 -

Tc)
•» e x >

Tong so tien cac co dong va cac chu no cua cong ty co

r
vdn vay nhan dugc la:
EBIT x (1 - Tc) + Tc*rB*B.
f f
* Lgi ich thue cua von vay (Tax shield)
f r /\ /t
So voi von cua chu, von ng co nhung uu the ve thue. Tong
0 t \ *» 0

so tien cac chu ng va co dong d cong ty co von vay nhan dugc

Ion lion tong so tien cac co dong d cong ty 100 phan tram vdn
cua chu nhan dugc la Tc*rB.
Tc*rB*B dugc goi la lgi ich thue cua vdn vay. Lgi ich
' # ' f \ \

thue co cung muc do nii ro nhu li tien vay. Neu nhu luong tien
* ' r

lgi ich thue la vo tan, thi gia tri lgi ich thue cua vdn ng la:
Tc*rB*B/ rB = Tc*B
/

* Gia tri cua cong ty cd vdn vay

f /

Chung ta vira tinh gia tri hien tai lgi ich thue cua vdn vay.
* f

Biroe tiep theo chung ta phai tinh gia tri cua cong ty co vdn vay.
Doan tren chung ta da chi ra tong sd tien cac cd ddng va cac chu

247
ng cua cong ty co von vay nhan duy>_ iu.
EBIT x (1 - Tc) + Tc*rB*B
EBIT x (1 - Tc) chinh la luong tien sau tliue d congty 100
\ r \ 0
phan tram von cua chu. Gia tri cua cong ty 100 phan trem von
cua chu chinh la gia tri hien tai ciia EBIT x (1 - Tc),
Vu = EBIT x (1 - Tc)/rO
t * y

TcrBB la lgi ich thue cua von vay va gia tri cua n) bang
t

TcB. N h u vay, gia tri cua cong ty co von vay VL se la:

VL = EBIT x (1 - Tc)/rO + Tc*rB*B/ rB
= Vu + TcB
i f m x

Dang thirc tren chinh la hoc thuyet MMI trong moi :ruang
t

co thue thu nhap cong ty.

Hoc thuyet MM II a moi trucmg co thue thu nhap d n g ty
/ r

Theo MM II, d moi trudng co thue thu nhap cong ry, moi
quan he giua ty le hoan von cua chu rS va ty le giua von va^y va
f 1 ^ ^

von cua chu dugc the hien bang cong thirc sau:
rS= rO + (B/S) x (l-Tc) x(rO-rB)
Trong trudng hgp nay chi phi von binh quan du?c xae
dinh nhu sau:
rW A CC = (B/VL)rB(l-Tc) +(SA^L)rS
f t f

Tac dong cua c a cau von tai chinh doi vdi gia tri o n g ty,
chi phi v6n ng va von cua chu dugc the hien bang cac Hn.h ve
sau:

248
 Hlnh H-13.3:

Chi phi von: r

Ty le giua von vay

va von cua chu (B/S)

Gia trj
cong ty

13.5. C a cau von - nhirng han che cua viec su* dung
r

von vay

Chung ta da biet rang, theo hoc thuyet MM, VL = Vu +

*

TcB. Theo phuang trinh nay, de tang gia tri cua cong ty, cong ty
» f r r
co the tang c a cau von vay/von cua chu, hay cac cong ty nen sir

249
dung toi da von vay. Dieu nay, khong dung v a j thirc t'J A cac
cong ty th ua n g chi sir dung m ot khoi iirang von vay ban. che
T u y nhien. hoc thuyet M M m ai chi huang dan cho :hung
ta nen nuhicn cuu nhfrm? dieu gi k h i tim kiem nhunu vc * :o cua
*—✓ c_‘ V ? - '

ca cau von. Hoc th u y c t con m ot so han che, hoc thuyct khdng

de cap toi van dc pha san va cac chi phi kem theo -.or vay.
Them vao do, hoc thuyet M M khong dc cap den cac loai thue
thu nhap ca nhan. Trong thirc te, ty le thue thu nhap ca nhan
danh vao thu nhap lai tien vay cao han ty le thue thu nhap ca
nhan danh vao thu nhap tu von cua chu. Chinh vi vay, thue ca
nhan danh vao chu no co xu h u a n g bu dap lgi ich thue cua von
vay dung tren giac do doanh nghiep. Tac dong cua chi pin' pha
san va thue ca nhan se dugc nghien ciru trong chirang nay.

13.5.1. Cac ch i p h i tich hien tai chinh (fin a n cia l distress

cost)

* Rui ro pha san va chi phi pha san

N h u chung ta da de cap a chuong truoc, von vay man!; lai
/ e /

lgi ich thue cho cong ty. Tuy nhien, von vay cung gav ap lire dot
% % r v
vai cong ty bcri vi cac khoan thanh toan ve von goc va lai tien
vay la nghTa vu m a cong ty phai thirc hien. N eu n h u cong ty
khong tra dugc cac khoan ng goc va lai vay, cong ty co the se
gap phai rui ro tich bien tai chinh va giai doan cuoi cung cua
%

viec tich bien tai chinh la pha san. Tuc la, quyen so huu tai san
cua cong ty bi chuyen hgp phap sang cho chu ng va co dong.
* Cac chi phi pha san
Neu nhu cong ty dang duong dau vai kha nang pha san va
neu nhu cac chi phi hanh chinh va cac chi phi gan vai vice pha
san lan thi cong ty co von vay co the se it hap dan cac nha dau
tu hem so vai cong ty 100 phan tram von cua chu. Trong cac thi

250
': r c w \ y o " hoan hao
V '
ch* <\\\ vh? s . ^ .
( I
i nhu* h <1112 k h o n u , V. y

vj- cai- tni san cd the <'hrgo ^an :hv.• ;!nr > ;lh tri kinh tc i",ia
!•• -Mt;.; ivi-i l i 6n;' ; 'o.i; c"'. phi ,;>an h ep phap nao
pha* ' 'c*; ha:; ta • Mu: .. du-f • ; han phdi theo mi'rc
do tu hen doi vdi iai Neu niur thi tru-.Y.g von it hoan hao
'•< a- ca c chi phi hanh chinh c- the phat sinh . a cac tai san co the
dirge han d gia thap non gia trj kinh te cua chung.

Trong trucmg hep, cong ty hi pha san. tong so tien phan

phoi cho nhung ngudi gifr cac chung khoan se it hem so tien le
ra ho dugc nhan vi trong trudng hop nay ed cac chi phi pha san
pha! sinh. N’eu nhu moi nhan to khac deu nhu nhau, kha nang
pha san ciia cong ty cd vdn vay ldn hon so vdi cong ty 100 phan
tram vdn cua chu, va nhu vav, cong ty cd von vay se it hap dan
cac nha dau tu horn. Kha nang pha san khong ty le thuan vdi ty
f r t

le vdn vay/von cua chu. Khi ty le giua vdn vay/von cua chu
vugt qua mot ngudng nao do thi kha nang pha san tang nhanh
hon muc do tang cua ty le vdn vay/von cua chu. Va nhu vay,
cac chi phi pha san cung se tang nhanh theo kha nang pha san.
Viec tang nhanh chi phi pha san se lam giam gia tri cua cong ty.
Tom lai: Kha nang pha san cd anh hudng tieu cuc den gia
tri cua cong ty. Tuy nhien, ban than kha nang pha san khong
/

lam giam gia trj cua cong ty ma chinh cac chi phi phat sinh gan
vdi kha nang pha san lam cho gia tri cua cong ty giam.
y? * Chi phi tich bien tai chinh
r \ **

Khi van de tich bien tai chinh xay ra, cong ty cd the phai
duong dau vdi nhung van de sau:
1. Nhung tranh chap giua cac chu ng va cac cd dong
thudng lam tri hoan viec ban tai san. Trong trudng hgp cong ty
bi pha san, ed the phai mat vai nam de giai quyet cac tranh chap

251
 / f

nay. Trong thai gian giai quyet cac tranh chap do. nha xuong
r * f %

xuong cap, may moc thiet bi hao mon, han gi, hang d u tru ton
/

kho lac mot, v.v...

\ f

2. Tien thue luat su, cac chi phi lien quan den toa an, cac
chi phi hanh chinh co the phat sinh mot lugng lan va lam giam
/

gia trj cong ty. Tat ca cac chi phi hanh chi'nh, chi phi phap luat
va chi phi cua su giam sut cua tai san dugc goi la chi phi tich
bien tai chinh true tiep.
f

3. Cac nha quan ly va cong nhan thuang bj mat viec khi

r r \

cong ty that bai. Biet d ugc dieu nay, cac nha quan ly cua cong
ty khi cong ty dang trong thai ky bi tich bien tai chinh se co
f y f

nhung quyet dinh de curu vat sir song sot cua cong ty trong mot
f %

thai gian ngan, nhung dieu nay lai lam giam gia tri cua cong ty.
Vi du, cong ty co the tri hoan viec bao duong m ay moc thiet bj,
r i /

ban het cac tai san co gia tri de thu hoi tien mat, hoac cat giam
\ f r +

qua muc cac loai chi phi, dieu nay dan den chat lugng san pham
v& dich vu cua cong ty giam sut va vi vay, vi tri thi truong dai
f

han ciia cong ty bj suy yeu.

f % f

4. Cac khach hang va nguai cung cap deu nhan biet dugc
r \ x / *

cac van de co the xuat hien, doi vai cong ty, do vay, ho thuong
tien hanh cac hanh dong de bao ve minh, nhung hanh dong nay
khien cong ty da kho khan lai cang kho khan han.
r ^ *

Cac chi phi phat sinh do cac quyet dinh quan ly khong toi
uu trong giai doan tich bien tai chinh cong vai cac chi phi do
khach hang, nguai cung cap ap dat goi la cac chi phi tich bien
tai chinh gian tiep.
Nhin chung, cac chi phi tich bien tai chinh true tiep va
/ / f

gian tiep thuong rat cao. Hon the nua, tjch bien tai chinh thuang
r ^

chi xay ra khi cong ty co von vay. Cac cong ty 100 phan tram

252

V
von cua chu thudng khong trai qua giai d o a n tich hien tai chinh.
C hin h vi vay, cang sir dung v o n vay c a n g nhieu. chi phi tra lai
t i e n v a y c o dinh cang l d n thi x a e s u a t g i a m silt trong thu nhap
dan den tich bien tai chinh cang cao, vi xae suat cac chi phi tich
bien tai chinh xay ra se cang cao.
Xae suat tich bien tai chinh trong tuong lai tang len se lam
gisrn gia trj hien tai ciia cong ty va lam tang cac chi phi von ciia
** / X

no 0 e nhin thay vi sao, gia sir chung ta du doan rang

Fredrickson Co. sc ganh chiu chi phi tich bien tai chinh S7 trieu
• t

neu cong ty bj that bai vao mot ngay nao do trong tuong lai, va
f

gia trj hien tai ciia chi phi tich bien nay la S5 trieu. Hon the nua,
' r r

xae suat tich bien tai chinh tang len khi ty le giua von vay/von
ciia chii tang da lam cho gia trj tjch bien tai chinh hien tai da du
doan tang tir 0 (trong trudng hop cong ty khong vay ng) den $
* e r

4,75 trieu (khi trong co cau von cua cong ty co S 30 trieu von
ng). Hay xem bang sau:
Frcdrickson Water Co.: Chi phi tjch bien tai chinh du
doan

Tong von ng SO $5 S10 S20 $30

trieu trieu trieu trieu
r

Xae suat tich bien 0,0 0,05 0,15 0,50 0,95

tai chinh

Gia tri hien tai chi so S250.000 S750.000 S2.500.000 S4.750.000

phi tich bien tai
chinh dir doan*

* $5 trieu nhan vdi xae suat

/

Gia tri tjch bien tai chinh du doan se tang tir $0 den
$4,750,000 khi ca cau von vay/von cua chu tang len se lam cho
gia trj cong ty va gia trj von co phan (V va S) giam. Cac nha

253
d a u n r s c y e n c a u t a n g iy !o h o a n v d n . D i e u n a v sc l a i n cir, p h i
v d n b in h q u a n ta n g len. Vi d u , a n u ’rc S 2 0 t r i e u \ d n n g e i n i r g ta
c o c a c m a in o bans’ sau:
F r e d r i c k s o n W a t e r C o . : A n h h u d n g cii a t i c h b i e n t a i c h m l i

D a n vi: t r i e u d o la
-
i

C a c g ia tri khi v o n n g ~ i C a c g ia tri k h i v o n n g j

i S 2 0 trieu neu nhir a n h = S 2 0 trieu co tinh
II h u d n g tich b ie n tai c h i n h J d e n a n h h u a n g tich
1 k h o n u tin h d e n b i e n tai c h i n h
1
1 i: J

]1 j

"v 1 $28.00 | $ 2 8 , 0 0 - $ 2 ,5 ~ $ 2 5 . 5 |
1
S $ 8 ,0 0 S 8 . 0 0 - S2,5 = S 5 ,5

rS 18,00% 26,18%

rW A C C 8,57% j 9,41% |
i
Nhir vay, can cir vao bang tren chung ta cd the thav rang
khi ty le vdn vay/von cua chu tang len se lam cho chi phi vdn
binh quan va gia tri cong ty giam xuong.
* Cac chi phi va thiet hai thue quan ly trung gian (Agcncy
Costs)
f y f

Loai chi phi nay gan lien vdi viec sir dung vdn vay. Trong
f t

cac cong ty cd vdn vay neu nhu giua cac chu ng va cong ty
' ' ^ A \ A

khong ky bat cu dieu khoan han che hoac rang budc nao, cac
nha quan ly se cd khuynh hudng dira ra cac quyet dinh dira vao
cac chi phi cua chu ng de mang lai lgi ich cho cac cd ddng. Vi
du, neu Fredrick W ater mdi chi phai vay mot khoi lugng nho,
f

thi khoan vdn ng nay chi co mot chut rui ro vi phan loai tin
dung (credit rating) con cao va lai suat tien vay thap. Nhirng khi
cong ty do phat hanh them cac trai phieu trong khi gia tri tai san

254
bao dam khong i!ia \ doi. Dieu nay cn nuiua !a cac chu ng phai
duong dau voi muc do rui. ro cao i on. nl a ’ ay cac chu ng men
sc yeu cau lai yuat tien cho \ a> u io ho;- (rf J tang), song chinh
dieu nay cac chu ng cu lai ganh chiu nhung mua thiet ve von.
i iron<> tu, 'dii\ su ram* sau kh i nhai hanh m oi khoi iira rvj ian von
jr

vay. I’ redrickson da quyet d jn h to cnuc lai ca cau tai san cua no

bring each ban hot cac tai s a n co rui ro kinh doanh thap va mua
vao cac tai san co m uc do rui ro cao va c u ng eo ty !e thu hoi von
d a u tu dir kien cao hon. N eu n h u moi viec deu tro i chay, cac co
dong se thu d u a c nhieu lo i ich. Song nC-u n h u m oi viec khong
scon se. h a u her cac ton that trong c o n g ty eo ty le v o n ng cao sc
do vao dau cac chu ng. N h u vay, cac co dong da "danh bac"
bang Uong tien cua cac chu ng.

Bang nhieu cach, cac co dong eo die loi dung cac chu ng,
v i vav, cac trai phieu dugc bao ve bang mot so giao keo (restrict
covenants). N h u n g giao keo nay iam tro ngai cac hoat dong cua
cong ty a m ot m uc do nao do. Hon the nira, cong ty phai bi
giam sai de cac giao keo dugc tuan thu, va cac chi phi cua vice
j’ iam sai nay lai do cac co donu uanh chiu duai hinh thuc eanh
chiu chi phi von vay cao han. Cac chi phi vi giam hieu qua va
cac chi phi giam sat nay iam tang chi phi v-jn vay va giam gia tri
/ / f

von cua chu va nhir vay, iam uiam loi the cua von no.
- J * O • •

* Gia ui cong ty va chi phi von co tinh den cac chi phi va
thiet hai thue quan ly trung gian
Neu nhu mo hinh MM trong dieu kien ton tai thue thu
nhap cong ty la diing thi gia tri cong ty se khong ngung tang len
khi cong ty do tang tv le von vay/von cua chu tir 0 den 100%.
Dieu do co nghTa la gia tri circ dai ciia cong ty xay ra khi cong

255
 ' # /

ty hoat dong bang 100% von vay. Gia tri cong ty tang la do gia
0 r

tri hien tai lgi ich thue tang khi von vay tang. Tuy nhien mo
\ / 9 f

hinh MM chua de cap den hai nhan to lam giam gia tri cong ty
do la chi phi va thiet haithue quan ly trung gian. Neu hai loai
0 0

chi phi nay dugc tinh den thi moi quan he giua gia tri cong ty va
0 0 ^

co cau von cua no phai dugc the hien bai phuang trinh sau:

Gia trj hien tai

Gia trj hien tai chi phi va thiet hai
Gia trj hien tai
VL = VU+ du doan chi phi thue quan ly
cua lai ich thue
tich bien tai chinh trung gian

Phuang trinh tren dugc mo ta bang hinh ve sau:

Hinh H-13.4: Anh hudng cua cor cau vdn den gid tri cong ty

Gia trj cong ty ($)

Chi phi va thiet hai
thue quan ly trung
gian va chi phi tich
bien tai chinh

Gia trj thirc ciia

cong ty

Gia trj ciia cong

ty 100% von
cua chu
Tong so von vay toi uu

Von vay ($)

256
 Anh lurune cua Un ich time hoan toan chiem iru the khi
long so von vay dat den diem A. Sau diem A, eae chi phi va
thiet hai time quan ly trung gian cang t n r nen quan trong. O
diem B, lgi ich thue bien ciia $ 1 von no cong them dung bang
cac bat lgi bien cua SI vdn vay cong them, va vugt qua diem B
bat lgi bien hoan toan Ian han va chiem tru the so vdi lgi ich
thue bien.

13.5.2. Thue thu nhap cd nhau

\ r f

Mac dau hoc thuyet MM 11 da cd tinh den tac dong cua

thue thu nhap den gia tri cong ty, song hoc thuyet da khong
phan tich tac dong cua thue thu nhap ca nhan. Tuy nhien sau do
9 9 ^ 7

Merton Miller da gidi thieu mot md hinh dugc thiet ke de the

hien tac dong cua ca cau von den gia tri cong ty. Trong mo hinh
nay ca thue thu nhap cong ty va thue thu nhap ca nhan cung da
dugc de cap den. De giai thich md hinh Miller, hay dat Tc la ty
le thue thu nhap cong ty, Ts la ty le thue thu nhap ca nhan danh
vao thu nhap la lai tien cho vay. Hay chu y rang thu nhap tu cd
tire cd the den tu hai nguon: l) Cd tire va 2) thu nhap tu vdn,
/ r

chinh vi vay Ts chinh la binh quan trong sd cua cac ty le thue

thirc danh vao cd tire va thu nhap tir vdn, trong khi toan bo thu
nhap tur vdn cho vay lai do tien cho vay mang lai.
T r o n j dieu kien cd tinh den thue thu nhap cong ty va thue
thu nhap ca nhan, gia trj cong ty 100% vdn cua chu se dugc xac
dinh nhu sau:
Vu - EBIT(1-Tc)( 1-Ts)/rO( 1-Ts)
Trong cong thue noi tren, tir sd the hien bao nhieu thu
nhap kinh doanh con lai cho cac nha dau tu sau khi cong ty
r 9
100% vdn eua chii thanh toan thue thu nhap cong ty va cac nha
dau tu ciia no thanh toan thue thu nhap ca nhan danh vao thu

257
nhap tir co phan. Vi sir hien dien cua thue thu nhap ca nhan hun
giam thu nhap ciia cac nha dau tu, nen thue thu nhap ca naan
cung lam giam gia tri cong ty (neu nhu cac nhan to khac khong
thay doi).
t > t

Gi.l tri cong ty co von vay trong dieu kien co tinh den ca
r r

thue thu nhap cong ty va thue thu nhap ca nhan duoc xac dinh
%

bang cong thirc sau:

VL + Vu +[ 1-(1 -Tc)( 1-T s )/1- T B)J xB
\

Mo hinh Miller dugc mo ta bang hinh ve sau:

f r r

Hinh H-13.5: an It hic&ng cua c o cau van den gia tri cong ty
\ f ^ *

trong dieu kien co thue thu nhap cd nhan va thue thu nhap
cong ty

Gia tri

Mo hinh Miller co mot so y nghTa quan trong sau:

1. Cum s6 [1- (1-Tc)(l-Ts)/1- T b)]><B th£ hien thu nhap
f f * t *

hoSc lo do co von vay trong c a cau von, cum so tren thay the
cho ty le thue thu nhap cong ty trong mo hinh MM khi chi de
cap den thue thu nhap cong ty, va khi do VL = Vu + TcB.

258
 2. Neu ehung ta khong de cap den tat ca cac loai thue, hay
no; each khac neu Tc = Ts = T (i = 0 thi cum so trong ngoac bang
0, 'rong trudng hop nay mo hinh Miller hoan toan trung hop vdi
f t

me hinh MM trong trudng hgp khong tinh den tat ca cac loai
thue.
r \ / f

3. Neu chung ta khong de cap den thue thu nhap ca nhan,

f ' ' r

co nghTa la neu Ts = TB = 0, cum so trong ngoac se giam xuong

[1 • fl-T c)] = Tc, nhu vay mo hinh Miller cung chinh la mo
hinh MM trong dieu kien chi tinh den thue thu nhap cong ty.
4. Neu ty le thue thu nhap ca nhan thuc danh vao thu nhap
i ' r * t

tir co phieu va thu nhap tir trai phieu bang nhau, nghTa la, neu Ts
_ r

- TB thi (1 - Ts) va (1 - Tb) se nit gon cho nhau va cum so trong

ngoac se bang Tc.
5. N eu (1-Tc)(l- Ts) = (1 - TB), cum so trong ngoac se
' f r

bang 0. N h u vay, co cu vdn khong anh hudng den gia tri cong ty
va chi phi von binh quan ciia no va chung ta lai quay lai hoc
f \ t

thuyet M M dau tien khi hoc thuyet MM dugc nghien cuu trong
moi trudng hoan toan khong co thue.
6. Vi thue danh vao thu nhap tir von thap hon ty le thu
nhap ca nhan bac cao nhat va lai co the tri hoan viec thanh toan
f t f /

thue, ty le thue thuc danh vao thu nhap tir co phieu thudng it
/ r

hon so vdi ty le thue thu nhap danh vao thu nhap tir trai phieu.
Trudng hgp nay, mo hinh Miller du doan thu nhap (lai) do co
cau von la bao nhieu? De tra ldi cau hoi nay, gia sir ty le thue
thu nhap cong ty la Tc = 34%, ty le thue danh vao thu nhap tir
trai phieu la T« = 28% va ty le thuc thirc danh vao thu nhap tir
* /

co phieu la Ts= 20%. 7 Ur>v cac gia tri nay vao mo hinh Miller
f * r

chung se thay gia tri cong ty co von se cao hon gia tri cua cong
.< r r
ty 100 phan tram von ciia chu la 27% gia tri thi trudng von vay

259
cua cong ty.
Thu nhap
i , - r, ( i - T j ( ! -1',)
do trong c a cau ’- [ I - ________________ j 5 j 3
; , , " ( 1-Th)
von co von vay
(1-0,34X 1-0,02)
= [ 1-------------------------------
1 (1-0,28)
= [1 - 0,73]5B = 0,27B

Chu y rang, mo hinh MM trong moi trirang co time thu

nhap cong ty, gia tri iai ich thue do vay vdn la 0.34 B hay hang
f r

34% gia tri von vay. Chinh vi vay, vai cac ty le thue gia sir nay,
sir hien dien cua thue thu nhap ca nhan lam giam lai ich thue thu
V / f

duac do tai tra bang von vay. Nhin chung, bat cir khi nao ty le
thue tlrac danh vao thu nhap tir co phieu nho h an ty le thue thirc
danh vao thu nhap tir trai phieu, thi lai thu duoc do vay von tinh
theo mo hinh Miller se hon lai tinh theo mo hinh M M.
13.5.3. Thue va thi trudng khong hoan hao
Trong phan nay chufig ta lai quay lai vai nhung anh
huang cua cac nhan to trong thi trirang khong hoan hao ma
chung ta da de cap a nhung phan dau ciia c h u a n g do la chi phi
pha san, chi phi va thiet hai thue quan ly trung gian.
* Chi phi pha san, chi phi va thiet hai thue quan ly trung
gian va cac loai thue.
Neu nhu mot cong ty nao do co the bi pha san, cong ty
r r

tinh toan cac chi phi phat sinh do pha san, va neu nhu xac suat
pha san cang tang len khi ty le von vay/von ciia chii tang len, ty
le von vay/von ciia chu tang len den mot diem nao do. cac chi
phi von do cac chii n g va cac nha dau tu ap dat se cao han nhieu
so vai mire trung binh. Trong mot the giai co ton tyi cua cac loai
thuc \ a cac chi phi lien quan den pha s a n . ;o the co ca cau von
toi iru neu nhir tat ca cac nguyen ly k h a c ci.ia hoc thuyet M M
khoia_» thay doi. Chi phi von cua com: \\ e pi am khi S! von vav
dau tien dirac sir dumi. Khi von va\ n$jav caaa tanLr len va kha
nang pha san cung tang len sc lam cho chi pi: i von giam theo ty
1c giam dan khi ty le von vav/von cua chu tang len. Khi ty le
von vay/von cua chu dat den muc do nao do. cac chi phi phat
sinh lien quan den kha nang pha san se tang len va lan han ca
r * t

gia trj loi ich thue cua von vay, luc do chi phi von cua cong ty
sc tana len.
Ngoai cac chi phi phat sinh co lien quan den kha nang pha
san, trong cong ty co von vay con co sir hien dien cua cac chi
phi quan ly va giai quyet lgi ich giua cac nha dau tu. Tuang tu,
vdi loai chi phi phat sinh co lien quan den kha nang pha san, chi
phi quan ly va giai quyet lgi ich giua cac nha dau tu se tang theo
nhung ty le tang dan khi ty le von vay/von cua chu tang len. Ket
t

hgp anh hudng cua cac loai chi phi tren va cac loai thue, gia trj
cua cong ty dugc xae dinh bdi cong thuc sau:
(1 -Tc)( 1-Ts)
____ __ ___ _____ ]5B - C (B)
V l = V u+[1- ( i .Tb)

Trong do C(B) la gia tri hien tai cua cac chi phi lien quan
t /

den pha san va cac chi phi quan Iv va giai quvet lgi ich giua cac
nha dau tu.
Gia tri cong ty va chi phi von binh quan trong trudng hgp
nay dugc mo ta bang hinh ve sau:

261
 Hinh H-I3.6: Leri ich thue , cac chi p h i lien quan den p h a san
r f r

dir tinh va ca cau van toi uu

Chi phi pha san dir kien

Lai dong 1cm nhat
(Chi phi bien =
lgi ich bien) Lai ich thue

Diem toi iru B /S

W ACC

262
 Chu'it Jig I t

CHINH SACH CO TUC

Trong nhirng nam gan day nhieu cong ty da thanh toan

k ho an g 50 phan train thu nhap ciia cong ty cho cac co dong duai
hi nh thirc co tire bang tien. Tuy nhien. mot so lan cac cong ty lai
\ \ f \

k h o n g thanh toan co tire bang tien va cung co rat nhieu cong ty

thanh toan co tire cho co ddng nhieu han thu nhap thuan tuy ciia
c o n g ty.
Mac du viec thanh toan co tire cua cac cong ty co the rat
khac nhau, song tat ca cac cong ty deu cho rang cac quyet dinh
\ * 9 <1

vc co tire la rat quan trong vi quyet dinh thanh toan co tire se

an;h h u ang den luong tien ra cua cong ty !a bao nhieu va tien
c o n g ty giu lai cho tai dau tu la bao nhieu. Them vao do, chinh
y * f +

sdich co tire cung co the cung cap cac thong tin cho cac co dong
ve- tinh hinh hoat dong ciia cong ty. Noi dung chinh cua chuong
naiv de cap den cac ly do vi sao mot so cong ty lai ap dung chinh
f

sdich tv le thanh toan co tire cao, song lai co mot so cong ty su

duing ty le thanh toan co tire thap.

14.1. Co tuc va thu nhap tir von - Cac nha dau tu- thich
klnoan thu nhap nao hon?

Khi chiing ta noi den co tire, thudng cd nghTa la noi den

> \ \ / ■»

nndt bd phan thu nhap thuan tuy bang tien phan phdi cho cd

263
dong. Neu so tien phan phoi cho cac co dong dtroc lay t u in;uon
khac chu khong phai tir thu nhap thuan tuy cua nam hien hanh
hay thu nhap thuan tuy duoc gifr lai c h o tai clau tu. th i so tien
phan phoi nay khong duoc coi la co tire. Co phieu eo the niang
k?: cho nguoi sd hiru no hai nguon thu nhap do la co tire va thu
nhap tir von (capital gain). Thu nhap tir von la phan chenh lech
giua gia tri thi trudng hien tai cua cd phieu va gia mua co phieu
(P t# P o ). Thuc te, nhin chung bat cu mot khoan thanh toan true
tiep do cong ty thuc hien doi vdi co dong cua minh co the duoc
coi la mot phan ciia chinh sach co tire.
1 \ r r \

Chinh sach co tire thudng de cap den ba van de co ban:

1) Ty le thanh toan co tire trung binh nen la bao nhieu'.’ Co
nghTa la ty le thanh toan co tire muc tieu (target payout ratio)
cua cong ty cho ca mot thdi ky dai la bao nhieu?
t f t s
2) Cong ty nen co gang duy tri toe do tang trudng co tire
tir tir va on dinh hay viec thanh toan co tire nen phu thuoc vao
nhu cau von va phu thuoc vao luong tien ciia cong ty timg thdi
ky?
r \ ' , Z.

3) Khoi lugng tien cong ty nen sir dung de thanh toan co

tire trong nam hien hanh la bao nhieu?
Ty le thanh toan co tire muc tieu khi xay dung can dua
t > *> A x

tren mong muon ciia cac nha dau tu la co tire hay thu nhap tu
/ \ r / A

von. Cac nha dau tu muon cong ty phan phoi toan bo lgi nhuan
cho minh dudi dang co tire bang tien hay su dung lgi nhuan de
tai dau tu vao kinh doanh de sau do thu dugc thu nhap tir von.
Su mong muon nay dugc the hien bang mo hinh sau:

P = _P|
0 rs_ g

264
 I’d : Ci i a c o p h i e u h i e n t ai

01: Co tuc monu doi sc dm> thanh tuan vao cuoi nam
hien hanh
rS: Ty le hoan von co phieu.
g: 1uc do tang co tire mong do;
Phuang trinh tren chi ra rang neu cung ty tang ty le thanh
toan co tire va vi vay lam tang 1)1. tang trong tir so mot cach co
1;tp se lam cho gia co phieu tang len. nhu vay luong tien giu lai
\ 9' . . . . \

cho tai dau tu se giam va ty le tang trudng du kien se giam, dieu

» / r

nay co the lai lam giam gia co phieu. Chinh vi vay, bat cir mot
% ■»
sir thay doi nao trong chinh sach thanh toan co tuc cung se gay
X t f

ra hai loai anh hudng trai ngugc nhau, cong ty can co gang can
doi gifra viec thanh toan co tire cho nam hien hanh va toe do
•t ** * / *

phat trien ciia cong ty trong tuong lai de co the toi da gia co
phieu.
Trong phan dudi day, chung ta se nghien ciru ba hoc
thuyet ve mong muon ciia cac nha dau tu: 1) Hoc thuyet su
khong thich hgp cua co tire (Dividend Inrelevance: Modigliani
& Miller; 2) Hoc thuyet " Ao anh chim trong long - bird - in -
/ ' 9

the hand" va 3) Hoc thuyet sir khac biet ve thue (Tax differential
theory).
9

* Hoc thuyet sir khong thich hgp ciia co tire:

■v 7

Trong mot bai bao quan trong ve chinh sach co tire,

%

Merton Miller va Franco Modigliani (MM) da tranh luan rang

chinh sach cd tire khong anh hudng den gia co phieu va chi phi
von cua mot cong ty - MM cho rang chinh sach co tire khong
quan trong. Cac ong da ly luan rang, gia tti cong ty dugc xac
dinh bdi kha nang sang tao thu nhap thuan tuy va mire do rui ro

265
cua no, va nhu vay thi gia tri cong ty phu thuoc vao chinh sich
dau tu chu khong phu thuoc vao hao nhieu phan loi nhuar sir
dung de thanh toan cho cac co dong diroi dang co lire va 3ao
nhieu lgi nhuan giir lai cho tai dau tu. Dua tren mot so cue gia
t \

thiet, MM da chime minh rane neu mot cone tv thanh tear, cd

/

tire cao han thi cong ty phai ban them cd phieu cho cac nha Jau
tu mdi, va phan gia tri cong ty do cac nha dau tu mdi dong gdp
dung bang tong sd cd tire thanh toan ra. Vi du, neu trong ke
hoach vdn, hang may Lay Boeing can SI ty tir viec tai tra thong
qua phat hanh cd phieu trong nam 1994, va neu hang nay du
doan se thu dugc ?! ty igi nhuan thi (1) hang Boeing cd the
» •»

thanh toan toan bo lgi nhuan ciia no cho cd dong dudi dang cd
tire va ban SI ty co phieu mdi; 2) hang Boeing cd the giir lai
toan bo $1 ty lgi nhuan khong thanh toan cd tire va khong phat
I f f ■> ^

hanh cd phieu mdi va cung cap cho cac cd dong thu nhap tir vdn
i r

gia tri hien tai la $1 ty; hoac (3) hang co the ap dung bat c d mot
ty le thanh toan cd tire nao trong vong tir 0 den 100% va cung
f y *» 't *

cap cho cac cd dong ca cd tuc va ca thu nhap tu vdn vdi tong
gia tri la SI ty.
M M da chimg minh hoc thuyet nay dung ve mat ly thuyet
neu nhu phai cd nam gia thuyet sau:
f f

1) Khong cd thue thu nhap cong ty va thue thu nhap ca

nhan
2) Khong cd chi phi giao djch va cac chi phi phat hanh cd
t

phieu
3) Cac nha dau tu cd thai do nhu nhau giua cd tire va thu
/

nhap tu vdn
4) Chinh sach dau tu vdn ciia cong ty doc lap vdi chinh

266
sach co tire cua no
5) Cac nha dau tu va cac nha quan Iv tiep nhan cung mot
' r \

kho i lugng thong tin lien quan den cac co hoi dau tu tuong lai.
Cac gia thuyet ciia MM la khong hien thue va ro rang la
k h o n g ton tai trong tkirc te. Cac cong ty va cac ca nhan deu phai
f

thanh toan thue thu nhap, cac cong ty phai ganh chju cac chi phi
7 9 \

p h a t hanh co phieu, con cac nha dau tu lai phai ganh chiu cac
chi phi giao dich. Hon the nua, cac nha quan ly thucmg thu nhan
\ X

dirge nhieu thong tin quan trong hon cac nha dau tu ben ngoai.
r f t

N h u vay, cac ket luan cua hoc thuyet nay co the khong co gia tri
trong the giai hien thue.
f t y

* Hoc thuyet "Ao anh chim trong long - Bird - in - the -

hanid": (Gordon va Lintner):
\ r y 0

Khia canh gay ra nhieu tranh cai nhat ve hoc thuyet khong
* y

thic;h hap cua co tuc cua MM do la cac nha dau tu co thai do

-» r 9 y
nhur nhau giua co tuc va thu nhap tir von. Van de nay gay ra
*

nhumg tranh luan khoa hoc soi noi. Myron Gordon va John
' *

Linitner mot mat tranh luan rang rS tang khi ty le thanh toan co
y 9 9 i

tire giam, bcri vi cac nha dau tu chac chan nhan dugc co tuc han
/ f

la mhan dugc thu nhap tir von vi khoan thu nhap tir von bj phu
thu(5c vao hieu qua sir dung thu nhap tai dau tu. Gordon va
\ S 1

Linitner cho rang, cac nha dau tu danh gia $1 co tire cho dgi
9

dugrc thanh toan cao han $1 thu nhap tir von cho dgi dugc thanh
toain boi vi D l/P o it rui ro hern g trong phucmg trinh ty le hoan
vom mong dgi:
= d i /p o + g
MM lai tranh luan rang cac nha dau tu co thai do nhu
nhaiu giua D l/P o va g. Vi vay, khong chiu anh huang cua chinh

267
,s;ich co tuc. M M da goi nlum c tranh iuan cua C o rd o n - i m iner
!a "A o anh chim trong lo n g 1’. Theo quat; diem cua M M . : at
nhieu cac nlut dau tu nhung khdng phai tat ca cac nha dau t;r sir
dung thu nhap tir cd tuc de tai dau ttr vao chinh cong t> da thanh
toan cd tire cho m inh hoac vao cac cong t\ tu on g tir. T hem vao
do. m uc do rui ro cua lu o ng tien cac cong ty dung de thanh toan
cho cac nha dau tu pint tln id c vao muc do rui ro cua luong tien
tir hoat dong kinh d :>rh chu khdng phu thuoc vao ch in h sach
thanh toan cd tuc e,u4 coneo tv.

* Hoc thu;, ct sir khac biet vc thue: Litzcnbcrgcr va

Ramaswamy.
Hoc thuyet thu 3 dua tren co so anh huong cua thuc do
Litzenberaer va Ramaswamy dtra ra. Vao nam 1993, tv le thue
W J 7 J

toi da danh vao thu nhap tir vdn dai han la 28% trong khi ty le
thue bien cao nhat du kien ap dat len thu nhap tir cd tire la
39,6% (va la hon 40% khi viec mien va giam thuc bi giam hot).
Chinh vi vay, mot nha dau tu thuoc nhom thuc 40% sc phai
thanh toan 40% thue doi vdi thu nhap tir cd tire, nhung chi phai
ndp 28% thue ddi vdi thu nhap tir vdn. Hon the nua, neu nha
dau tu do khdng ban cd phieu thi nha dau tu cd the tri hoan vice
ndp thuc thu nhap danh len thu nhap tir vdn, va vi "dong tien
hom nay cd gia tri hon dong tien ngay mai", nen kha nang co
the tri hoan nop thue mang lai uu the cho thu nhap tir vdn.

14.2. Cac kiem dinh cua hoc thuvct co tuc

Trong phan trudc, chimg ta da trinh bay ba hoc thuyet ve

cd tire:
1. MM cho rang chinh sach cd tire la khong thich hop, cd
nghTa la chinh sach cd tire khdng anh hudng den gia tri cong ty

268
VC Cl: pill \OM CIK1 COtlg tV. 1 hinh W \ >MM SC kllOllg C<>
m J .iu h '.:ch co r.rc Cu ;ru.
2. Cordon va Lintner da khong li-.' a; vdi MM, cac ung
tranh luan rang co lire it rui ro lion thu nhip tir von, ncn cong ty
co the ap dung ty le thanh toan co tire cao \ a ty le loi tire (D/Po)
cao de toi da gia co phieu cua no. MM goi dieu nay la "Ao anh
chini trong long".
3. 1loc thuyct thir 3 la cac nha dau tu thich lgi nhuan dc lai
hon la cd tire bdi vi co su khac biet ve thue danh vao co tire va
• f \
danh vao thu nhap tir vdn. Hoe thuyet nay air. chi rang cac cong
ty chi ncn thanh toan co tire d mire thap neu cac cong ty muon
toi da gia cd phieu.
Ba hoc thuyet tren dira ra cac Idi khuyen trai ngugc nhau
ddi vdi cac nha quan Iv ciia cac cong ty. nlur vay trong ba hoc
thuyet tren. cd hoc thuyet nao cluing ta cd the tin cay dirge? Hai
loai kiem dinh dau tien da dugc tien hanh dc xac djnh mdi quan
he thue giira chinh sach co tire va ty le hoan vdn yeu cau. Trong
loai kiem dinh DCF, cac so lieu kiem dinh ve tv lc lgi tire va ty
le tang trudng dirge ve trung bieu do cho cac cong ty khac nhau
va dd doe cua bieu do da duoc nghien ciru. Neu nhu do doc la -
1,0. dieu nay chi ra rang cac nha dau tir co thai do nhu nhau doi
vdi cd tire va thu nhap tir von, va nhu vav kiem dinh nay iing ho
> / /

MM. Rt khong may, kiem dinh DCF khong di den ket luan vi
hai ly do: 1) De mdt kiem dinh thong ke co y nghTa. ngoai chinh
sach co tire, cac nhan to khac phai giu co dinh. dieu nay co
nglua hi tat ca cac cong ty nam trong mau kiem dinh chi khac
nhau trong chinh sach co tire ciia ho. va 2) Chiing ta phai co kha
nang do ludng chinh xac toe dd tang trudng du doan cua cac

269
cong ty trong mau. Ca hai dieu kien tren deu khong tun tai.
Chung ta khong the tim duac mot mau gom cac cong ty sd hiru
cong cong ma lai chi khac nhau ve chinh sach co tuc, va cluing
ta cung khong the co d uac nhung du doan chinh xae ve toe do
tang trudng cua cac cong ty. Chinh vi vay, kiem dinh PC'F
khong the xae djnh muc anh hudng ciia chinh sach co tuc doi
/ *>

vdi chi phi von cua chu. Vi vay khdng the giai toa dugc nhung
tranh cai ve chinh sach co tuc.

14.3. Cac van de khac vc chinh sach co tuc

\ »

'1'nrdc khi chung ta thao luan ve chinh sach cd tuc trong

thuc tc. chung ta can phai xae dinh ha van de khac cd the anh
hudng den quan diem ciia chung ta ddi vdi cac hoc thuyet da
dugc trinh bay tren. Do la cac van de: 1) Noi dung thong tin (the
information content); 2) anh hudng ciia cac cd dong (clientele
f *

effect), va 3) mdi quan he giua chinh sach cd tuc va cac chi phi
quan ly va giai quyet quyen lgi giua cac nha dau tu.
* Noi dung thong tin:
Khi MM dua ra hoc thuyet su khdng thich hgp cua chinh
** \ f *

sach cd tuc, cac ong da gia su rang tat ca cac nha dau tu cung
\ ^
nhu cac nha quan ly deu cd chung mong dgi vc lgi nhuan tuang
\ t r

lai ciia cong ty va luong cd tuc. Tuy nhien, trong thuc te, cac
nha dau tu cd nhung y kien trai ngugc ve ca muc thanh toan co
t r f

tuc tuang lai va m uc do khdng chac chan gan vdi khoan thanh
toan nay, va thu dng thi cac nha quan ly cd day du cac thong tin
ve trien vong tuong lai ciia cong ty hon la cac nha dau tu ben
ngoai.
Ngudi ta da quan sat thay rang tang cd tire thudng lam
tang gia cd phieu, va giam trong cd tuc thudng lam giam gia co

270
phieu Dieu nay co the chi ra rami Cic :Ma dau tu thich co tuc
! r n. la thu nhap tir von. T u y nlucn. M M ia: t ranh luan khac. Cac
one da luu v den su kien cac cone tv ma 11 cudng cat mam co
- • Cm w

tire va khong tang co tire tru phi cac M m ; ty du doan trong

tuong lai se thu duoc loi nhuan ngang hang hoac cao hon trong
tuong lai. Chi'nh vi vay, MM khang dinh tang phan img eua cac
nha dau tu doi vdi nhung thay doi trong chinh sach co tuc
khong nhat thiet chi ra rang cac nha dau tu thich co tire hon thu
*» / 9 ^ r

nhap de lai. Hon the nua, thue te su thay doL trong gia co phieu
klii co nhung thay doi trong chinh sach co tuc don gian da chi
cho MM rang co nhung thong tin quan trong, hoac co nhung
dau hieu hay noi dung trong cac thong bao ve co tuc.
Giong nhu hau het cac khia canh khac cua chinh sach co
* /

tuc, kiem dinh thue te anh hudng cua noi dung thong tin co cac
ket qua hon hop. Ro rang co dau hieu trong cac thong bao ve co
9 1 / t

tuc. Tuy nhien, rat kho xac dinh co phai la gia co phieu thay doi
•» ^

theo sat su thay doi trong thanh toan co tuc chi do anh hudng
cua cac dau hieu trong cac thong tin ve co tire hay ca do cac nha
\ •+ 0

dau tu thich co tuc hon thu nhap tu von.

* Anh hudng cua cac co dong

1 t

Cac nhom co dong khac nhau thich cac chi'nh sach ve ty le

thanh toan co tuc khac nhau. Vi du, nhom nhung ngudi huu tri,
cac quy ung ho cac trudng dai hoc thudng thich thu nhap hien
9 *

tai, vi vay ho muon cong ty ap dung ty le thanh toan co tuc cao.

* 9

Nhom cac nha dau tu nay thudng thuoc nhom chiu thue thu
/ 0 9

nhap thap hoac khong bi danh thue. Mat khac, doi vdi nhom cac
1 ♦ \

co dong co thu nhap cao, ho lai thich tai dau tu vi ho khong can
/ \ 9 1

den thu nhap hien hanh va ho se tai dau tu bat cu khoan co tuc

271
nao nhan duac sau khi thanh toan thuc thu nhap ddi vdi co tdc.

Neu cac com: ty khdng thanh toan cd tire ma giu lgi nhuan
lai de tai dau nr. nhom cac cd dong can thu nhap hien tai sc that
vong. Ciia tri cd phieu cua ho sc tang, nlnrng nhung cd dong nay
buoc pha. ban bdt mdt sd cd phieu ciia ho de co tien. Nhdm cac
nha dau tu muon tiet kiem han chi tieu se thich chinh sach tra cd
tuc thap. Nhdm cac nha dau tu nay se phai ganh chiu them
phien toai v;i chi phi neu cac cong ty cua ho ap dung chinh sach
thanh toan cd tire cao vi ho phai thanh toan ngay thue thu nhap
ca nhan ddi vdi sd cd tire nhan dugc va sau khi ndp thue lai tai
dau tu phan thu nhap con lai. Vi vav, cac nha dau tu mudr. cd
thu nhap hien tai nen dau tu vao cd ph.eu cua cac cong ty cd
chinh sach thanh toan cd tire cao. trong khi do cac nha dau tir
khdng can ‘hu nhap hien tai nen dau tu vao cac cd phieu cua cac
cong tv cd ty le thanh toan cd tuc thap.
Cac nha dau tu cd the chuyen ddi viec dau tu cua minh tir
cong ty nay sang cong ty khac, mdt cong ty cung cd the thay doi
chinh sach cd tire va sau do neu nha dau tu nao khdng thich
i * n f

chinh sach cd tuc mdi cd the ban cd phieu cua minh cho nhung
ngudi thich chinh sach cd tire mdi do. Tuy nhien. viec mua ban
lai cd phieu cd the khdng hieu qua vi: 1) Cac chi phi phai tra
•y r >

cho ngudi mdi gidi, 2) kha nang ngudi ban cd phieu cd the phai
thanh toan thue thu nhap doi vdi thu nhap tir vdn, va 3) kha
nang se khdng cd nhieu nha dau tu thich chinh sach cd tuc mdi
cua cong ty. Chinh vi vay. cac nha quan ly co the mien cudng
thay ddi chinh sach cd tire ciia cong ty minh, vi nlurng thay ddi
nhu the cd the lam cho cac cd dong hien tai ban cd phieu cua ho,
hanh dong do sc lam giam gia cd phieu. Sir giam gia cd phieu cd
the la tam thdi nhunc cun<> cd the dien ra tronu mdt thdi iiian

272
din. N e u c h i'n h s a c h c o tire m m e h i h a p d a n n o t s o n h a d a u tir
mm d.i g i a c o p h i e u se g i a m . N i u r n g c a m 1 e '> i h e c h i n h s a c h c o
tire nvVi h a p d a n m o t s o l u o n g k h a c h h a n g I'm h a n t r u a c , t r o n g
t r u a m ; . h a p n a y , g i a c o p h i e u se t a n g .

C a c b a i v j c i i i r n u t h u e n u h r c r n c h o ra r u i . c a c n h a d a u t u
cun:; cu tac dong den gia co phieu. MM va cac hoc thuyet khac
tranh luan rang khach hang cung co tac dong den gia co phieu
nhu cac nhan to khac, vi vay. sir ton tai tac dong cua khac hang
/ r \ ■» t

khong nhat thiet co nghia rang co mot chinh sach co tire nay tot
hon chinh sach co tuc khac, MM cung co the sai, mac du chua
' •» \ y r

mot ai, ke ca ho co the dua ra cac bang chung tong hop ban chat
cua cac nha dau tu de cho phep cac cong ty khong quan tam den
\ f t \

tac dong cua eac nha dau tu. Giong nhu cac van de khac lien
quan den co tire, van de nay chua duoc lam sang to.

* Su on dinh co tire
X X 1 X

Lgi nhuan va cac luong tien thudng xuyen thay doi, dieu
*>

nay goi y cac cong ty nen thudng xuyen thay doi chinh sach
thanh toan co tuc, tang co tire khi luong tien vao ldn, nhu cau ve
tien thap, va giam co tuc khi luong tien vao it so vdi co hoi dau
tu. l uy nhien, doi vdi nhieu cd ddng, co tuc la nguon thu nhap
chinh de chi tieu hang ngay, thi luong co tuc khong on dinh se
* * . ' / i 1

vo cung bat tien doi vdi ho. Hon the nua, viec giam co tire de co
tien cho dau tu co the phat ra cac dau hieu khong dung, va cac
dau hieu nay co the lam giam gia co phieu. Chinh vi vay, de toi
da gia co phieu cua minh yeu can cong ty phai can doi giua nhu
cau ve von cua ban than cong ty vdi nhu cau va mong muon cua
cac cd ddng.
Cong ty nen xay dung chinh sach cd tire nhu the nao? kho

273
co the dua ra mot cau tra ldi ro rang, tuy nhien chrdi day l.'i cac
diem co the tham khao.
1. Hau nhu tat ca cac cong ty sd huu cong cong deu thuc
hien cac du doan ve lai nhuan va co tuc tir 5 den 10 nam. Cac
dir doan nay khong cong bo ra cong chung, cac d u doan nay chi
nham phuc vu muc dich ke hoach hoa noi bo cong ty. Tuy
nhien, cac nha phan tich chung khoan cung xay dimg cac du
doan tucmg tu va cong bo cho cac nha dau tu.
2. Cac nam trudc, khi lam it xay ra, tap hop tir "chinh sach
<» <* %

co tire on dinh" co nghTa la chinh sach thanh toan co tire nhu

%

nhau tir nam nay qua nam khac. Ngay nay, phan ldn cac cong ty
va cac co dong chd dgi lgi nhuan khong ngimg tang len, theo do
co tire cung tang len. Chinh vi vay, ngay nay "chinh sach co tire
on dinh" thudng co nghTa la tang co tuc d mot ty le on dinh htjp
ly- \ *

3. Phan ldn cac nha quan sat tin tudng rang, moi ngudi
* t n 1

deu mong muon co mot chinh sach co tuc on dinh. Nhung han
r r ’ . • /»
che trong llnh virc thong ke da can trg viec kiem dinh quan diem
nay. Song, neu quan diem nay dung, cac nha dau tu se thich cac
1 ^ 1 1 1 1

co phieu co the nhan co tuc co the du doan trudc h an so vdi co

r f

phieu chd dgi nhan dugc khoi lugng co tuc trung binh dung nhu
tren nhung co tuc dugc tra khong deu dan. Dieu nay co nghTa la
r f t f

chi phi von cua chu se toi thieu, va gia co phieu se toi da, neu
> * *
cong ty on dinh chinh sach co tuc cua no den m uc co the.

14.4. Xay dung chinh sach co tire trong thirc te

Trong cac phan truac, chung ta da biet rang co nhom nha

dau tu thich co tire han thu nhap tir von, song co nhom lai thich
thu nhap tu von hon co tire. Tuy nhien, ca hai nhom nav deu

274
thi\ h a* tuc co the dir doan tri roc h<*n cm ti'a khone the dir doan
t;ir>Tc Vay cac cong ty ncn xay dung cac c h .in sach co tire nhu
tl.c nao .' Trong phan nay. cluing ta sc n,6 ta thirc te xay dirng
chinh sach co tire a cac cung.
* Xay dung ty le thanh toan co tuc muc tieu : "Mo hinh
thanh toan co tuc cuoi cung".
Ty le thanh toan co tire toi uu la mot ham so cua bon nhan
to sau: 1) Muc do cac nha dau tu thich co tire hon thu nhap tir
von. 2) Co hoi dau tu cua cong ty, 3) Co cau von muc tieu ciia
cong ty, va 4) muc do san co va chi phi cua nguon von ben
ngoai. Ba nhan to sau ket hop thanh mo hinh thanh toan co tire
cuoi ciing. Theo mo hinh nay, sau khi cong ty xac djnh ty le
thanh toan co tire muc tieu, cong ty se thue hien bon buac sau:
f f f * \

1) Xac dinh ngan sach von toi uu; 2) Xac dinh so lugng von can
thiet; 3) Sir dung thu nhap de lai de bo sung phan von cua chu
f l r

den mire co the; va 4) Chi thanh toan co tire neu nhu lgi nhuan
^ A ^ / /

san co nhieu hon nhu cau bo sung cho ngan sach von toi uu. Mo
hinh thanh toan co tire nay co nghia la co tire dugc thanh toan
bang phan lgi nhuan con lai sau khi da thoa man tat ca cac nhu
cau khac.
Chi phi cua lgi nhuan giu lai la chi phi c a hoi phan anh ty
t y r *»

le hoan von cua co dong. Neu nhu cac co dong cua mot cong ty
* y r

co the mua cac co phieu khac co mire do rui ro tuong duong va

thu dugc tong ty le co tire va ty le thu nhap tir von 12%, thi chi
* r

phi lai nhuan giu lai chinh bang 12%. Neu nhu cong ty huy
t \ ^ /

dong von bang cach phat hanh co phieu moi, chi phi cua viec
phat hanh co phieu mai se lan han 12% vi viec phat hanh se
phat sinh them chi phi. Them vao do thong bao phat hanh co

275
p h i e u m d i c o t h e p h a t r a e a c t i n h i e u t i e u c u e l a m p .ia m a . a c o
p hieu.

Hau hot c a c c o n e ty thiet lap c h o minh c a c a u v o n m u c

tieu. Trong ca cau vdn nay. nluit thiet phai co von v a y . vi vay
viec tai tro mdi phai dirge thirc hien mot phan thong qua phat
hanh chung khoan ng, mot phan bang nguon von cua chu. Neu
nhu cac cong ty dirge tai trg bang mot ca cau vdn hon hgp toi
uu (gom mot lugng hgp ly von vay va mot lugng hgp ly von cua
chu) va neu nhu phan von ciia chu dugc tai trg chi bang phan lgi
nhuan giu lai, thi cong ty se toi thieu chi phi bien cua moi dong
von mdi huy dong. Lgi nhuan giu lai la co gidi han. khi nhu cau
dau tu mdi ciia cong ty vucrt qua mot gidi han nao do. cong ty se
r > \ \ -

phai huy dong them von co phan bang cach phat hanh co phieu
r * *

thudng mdi vdi chi phi dat han va ket qua la chi phi von binh
quan se tang len.
Nhung khai niem nav co the dirge mo ta d hinh ve "Chi
r *

phi von bien" phia dudi. Gia sir cong ty DOC co chi phi von
binh quan rW ACC la 10% va toan bo von ciia chu la tu lgi
nhuan de lai. D udng chi phi von bien ciia cong ty (MCC) bat
dau tang tai thdi diem phat hanh co phieu mdi. DOC co S(>0
trieu lgi nhuan va ty le von vay toi uu la 40 phan tram. Neu
K X * A

cong ty khong tra lgi tuc bang tien cho co dong, DOC co the sir
dung S I 00 trieu (bao gom S60 trieu lgi nhuan de lai va $40 trieu
/ * * \ \ \

von vay mdi vdi chi phi von la 10%) dc dau tu thuan tuy (dau tu
\ ' 1

thuan tuy chinh lachenh lech giira dau tu bo sung vao cac tai
san co dinh va chi phi khu hao). Vi vay rW A CC se duoc giu
vung d ty le 10% khi von dau tu trong vong S i 00 trieu. Von d;iu
tu vugt qua S i 00 trieu, rW A CC se tang vi phai sir dung co
phieu pho thong phat hanh mdi co chi phi cao han.

276
 I 'a t n h i e n n e u IX )(" k h o n g g iir hu i< h o loi n h u a n d c tai
dai l.r. r \ Y A C C se hat d a u t a n g m r - v i u trieu. V i d u , neu
D O C c h i g i i r lai $ 3 0 t r i e u , th i r W A C C se K it d a u t a n g a d iem
$3(7 t r i e u lo i n h u a n g iir lai + $ 2 0 t r i e u v o n v;-y = $ 5 0 t r i e u .

Bay g i d g i a sir g i a m doc tai c h i n h e u a D O C xay dirng cac

bieu do vc co hoi dau tir. ('hung ta the hien cac ca hoi dau tir
nay tren hinh ve "Sir ket hap ca hoi dau tu va chi phi von bien".
C h iin g ta ket h o p cac bieu do ve ca h o i d a u tir vdi bieu do chi
phi von. Diem giao nhau giCra dudng 10S va dudng M C C chinh
la c h i p h i von bien va mire dau tu toi iru eua cong ty. Khi ca hoi
dau tir tuang doi xau (10SB), muc dau tu toi iru la $40 trieu; khi
\ > f

ca hoi dau tu binh thudng, (IOSN), mire dau tu toi uu la $70

trieu; va khi c a hoi dau tu tuang doi tot tIOSG), cong ty nen
dau tir mdi bang mot luong len tdi S I 50 trieu.
Neu nhir ca hoi dau tu tot, va khoi lugng dau tu toi uu cua
cong ty DOC la 150 trieu dola. Cong ty co 60 trieu do la lgi
f t % f * \

nhuan va tv le von ng muc tieu (von ng/tong so von) la 40 phan

tram. Chinh vi vay, thi cong ty co the tai trg 100 trieu dola, bao
gom 60 trieu do tir lgi nhuan giu lai va 40 trieu dola ng mdi va
chiu chi phi von binh quan la 10% (neu cong ty giu lai toan bo
l % X f

lgi nhuan de tai dau tu). Phan con lai S50 trieu von huy dong
bang each phat hanh co phieu va vi vay se co chi phf cao han.
Neu DOC' sir dung mot phan lgi nhuan de thanh toan co tire cho
* /

co dong, cong ty se phai phai phat hanh co phieu mdi vdi chi
phi cao han sdm han trudng hgp dau (giir lai toan bo lgi nhuan
de tai dau tu). va nhu vay dudng chi phi von bien MCC se tang
len Sam han trudng hgp dau. Dieu nay goi y rang, d dieu kien
\ f "t *

ca hoi dau tu tot cong ty ncn giu lai toan bo lgi nhuan de tai dau
tir. Theo mo hinh "thanh toan co tire cuoi c u i m " , ty le thanh toan

277
co tuc cua cong ty nen bang 0 r co hoi dau tu tot.
Neu ca hoi dau tu bin’ .nrdng, DOC chi nen <!au tu
S70 trieu. Nen dung nguon nao 'e tai trg viec dau tu nay? I rude
het, nen chu y rang neu DOC. g r lai toan bo S60 trieu lgi nhuan
va chi vay mai S10 trieu. Neu cong ty lam nhu vay, thi cong ty
da khong duy tri dugc c a cau von muc tieu cua minh. De duy tri
c a cau von muc tieu, DOC phai tai trg 60% cua $70 trieu bang
•> r 1 ^ ,

phat hanh co phieu va tir thu nhap de lai va 40% dugc tai trg
\ f \

bang von vay; dieu nay co nghTa la DOC phai giu lai S42 trieu
lgi nhuan, va di vay $28 trieu. Neu DOC chi giu lai $42 trieu
lgi nhuan de tai dau tu thi phan lgi nhuan con lai ($18 trieu),
DOC se phai thanh toan cho co dong cua minh. N h u vay, d dieu
' * 9
kien dau tu binh thudng, ty le thanh toan co tuc toi uu se la
S18/S60 = 30%.
Neu c a hoi dau tu xau, DOC chi nen dau tu $40 trieu.
Vi DOC co $60 trieu lgi nhuan, cong ty co the sir dung toan bo
$40 trieu de dau tu va van con $20 trieu de thanh toan co tuc
cho co dong. Cong ty co nen lam nhu vay khdng? Theo mo hinh
"Thanh toan co tuc cuoi cung" do khong phai la mot quyet dinh
/ * t *

tot, vi DOC se khong duy tri dugc c a cau von muc tieu. De dam
/ y r r

bao duy tri ty le von vay/tong so von la 40%, DOC chi nen giu
lai $24 trieu lgi nhuan de tai dau tu va vay them $16 trieu, phan
lgi nhuan eon lai $36 trieu nen dung de thanh toan co tuc cho co
dong. N hu vay ty le thanh toan co tuc trong trudng hgp nay se
la S36/S60 = 60%.
* 9 f *
Nhin chung, mo hinh "thanh toan co tuc cuoi cung" co the
v i *

dugc sir dung nhu mot chi dan de xay dung ty le thanh toan co
tire muc tieu dai han, tuy nhien ty le thanh toan co tire hang nam

278
khong. n e n qua phu thuoc vao mo hinh na y .
Mo hinh "thanh loan co tire cuoi c u n ; / ' giup cac cong ty
hieu dirge cac nhan to cua mot chinh sac!; c o tire toi iru, nhung
thuong cac cong ty lai sir dung mo hinh dir Juan tai chinh lam
c a s o cho viec xae dinh ty le thanh toan c o tire muc tieu. Hau
het cac cong ty lan deu co mot mo hinh de dir doan cac bao cao
tai chinh cua cong ty minh cho 5 den 10 nam tai. Trong mo hinh
nay. cac thong tin ve chi phi dau tu. nhu cau vc von luu dong du
kien duac lap trinh cung voi cac du doan ve doanh thu ban
r / ' / 1

hang, lgi nhuan, khau hao va cac nhan to can thiet khac de du
doan cac luong tien cua cong ty. Co cau von muc tieu cung
duac xae dinh ro, va mo hinh duac thiet ke de chi ra tong so von
vay va tong so von cua chu can thiet de thoa man cac nhu cau
von d dir doan trong khi van duy tri co cau von muc tieu.
Ve ban chat, ty le thanh toan co tuc cang cao thi nhu cau
von cua chu tu nguon phat hanh cd phieu mdi cung cang cao.
Hau het cac cong ty da sir dung mo hinh du doan tai chinh de
xae dinh md hinh thanh toan cd tuc cho thdi ky du doan thudng
5 nam. Viec thanh toan co tuc theo md hinh tren se dam bao day
du vdn cua chu cho ngan sach von ma khdng can phai phat hanh
cd phieu mdi hoac thay doi ca cau vdn muc tieu.

14.5. Co1che thanh toan co tuc

^ / %

Co tuc thudng dugc thanh toan hang quy va neu cac dieu
kien cho phep, cd tuc nam sau thudng cao han nam trudc. C a
che thanh toan cd tuc thuc sir dicn ra nlur sau:
*

1. Ngay cong bo (declaration date):

Gia sir vao ngay 15 thang Mdt, hoi dong quan tri thong

279
qua quyct dinh sc thanh tuan mot do la co tire cho moi cu phieu
vao ngay 16 thang Hai eho tat ca nhfrng nguoi co ten trung danh
sach ngay 30 thang Mot.
H inh 11-14.1: I T du ve co' d ie thanh toan cd tii\-

Thir Nam Tliur Tir Thir Sau Thir \ Iai

Thang Mot Thang Mot Thang Mot Thang Hai
15 28 30 16
Ngay cong bo Ngay lap danh Ngay dirge Ngay thanh
sach thanh toan toan co tire
co tire

2. Ngay lap danh sach (Date of Record)

Do la ngay cong ty lap mot danh sach (gia sir vao ngay 30
thang Mot), tat ca cac ca nhan tin rang ho la co dong cua cong
x r

ty vao ngay nay. Tir tin rang a day rat quan trong bai vi nhung
y r
ca nhan mua co phieu cua cong ty va cong ty nhan dugc thong
tin xac nhan viec mua do sau ngay 30 thang Mot se khong dugc
thanh toan co tuc.
y
3. Ngay khong dugc tinh co tuc (Ex-dividend date)
f y y
Ca che thanh toan co tire chi can cu vao danh sach co
\ r

dong a ngay lap danh sach se khong cong bang neu nhir 2 ca
y *9 >
nhan mua co phieu cua cong ty vao cung mot ngay (gia sir vao
ngay 29 thang Mot) nhung thong tin xac nhan do cac nha moi
giai chung nhan hanh dong mua ban do lai den cong ty vao ci'ic
y f

thai diem khac nhau. Gia sir nghiep vu mua ban thir nhat dugc

280
tlnrc iii' :i t h o n g q u a m o t n h a m o i g i a i n a m : ' non xae n h an
hoat m u a b a n d o n h a m o i g i a i n a v giri iK i! c n c o n g t y v a o

n r a v 2(; t h a m : M o l. Va
C. V
dc-w k lai. h a n h cioiv/ ;: u a b a n th i r h a i
• •

dirge ilnr, liicn thong qua mot nha m oi giai a dong kem hieu
qua !uv-.. Va phai sau 2 ngay ke ur ngav m m •ire la vao ngay 2
thaim Mai, eiav xae nhan cua nha m oi eiai na\ m ai den coneC? ty.
w V .’ ✓ • J
Nlur vay ngudi mua co phieu trong trudng hop thu nhat sc co
ten trore danh sach duoc nhan co tuc, con neudi mua tron si
*>

trudng hop thu hai sc khong co ten trong danh sach. Dc loai tru
van dc nav, tat ca cac nha moi gidi cho phcp cac co dong dugc
nhan co tuc neu ho mua co phieu 5 ngay trudc ngay lap danh
sach. Ngav thu hai trudc ngay lap danh sach (tuc la thu tu ngay
28 tilling Mot) trong vi du cua chung ta goi la ngay khong dugc
nhan co tuc. Trudc ngay nay, ai mua co phieu .se dugc nhan co
tuc.
4. Ngay thanh toan co tuc (Date o f payment)
i •>

Ngay cong ty thanh toan co tuc cho co dong (theo vi du la

ngay 16 thang Mot).

14.6. Cac kc hoach tai dau tir co tuc

*

Vao nhung nam 1970, dai bo phan cac cong ty ldn xay
dung cac ke hoach tai dau tu co tuc, thong qua do, cac co dong
’ ' 1 ■* t

co the tai dau tu tu dong co tuc cua minh de mua co phieu cua
*

cong ty tra co tuc. Hien nay, ngudi ta du doan co khoang 1000

cong ly co dua ra ke hoach tai dau tu co tire, mac dau cac ty le
tham gia thay doi dang kc, khoang 25% cac co dong ciia mot
t f t

cong ty trung binh dugc ket nap. Co hai loai ke hoach: 1) Cac ke
hoach chi lien quan den cac co phieu "cu" - do la so cac co

281
p h i e u d a t o n tat t r e n th ; t r u d n g ; v a 2 ) c a c k c h o a c h chi hen o u a n

d en cac co phieu p h a ! h a n h . T r o n g c a hai tri rang k n \ c o

d o n g p h a i t h a n h toan thue t h u n h a p la c o t u c h a t k c c o uu: do

d u g c th a n h toan h a n g tien h a y b a n g co p hieu.

Doi voi ca hai loai ke hoach nay, co dong phai chon giua
viec tiep tuc nhan co tuc bang tier, mat hay sir dung co tire de
mua them co phieu cua cong ty. Doi vdi loai ke hoach co phieu
"cu", neu co dong lua chon viec tai dau tu, ngan hang hoat dong
vdi tu cach don vi uy thac se nhan so co tire danh cho tai dau tu.
Sau khi trich ra mo: khoan tien phi dich vu cho minh se dung
toan bo so tien con iai de mua co phieu cua cong ty tren thi
trudng md va sau do nhan cilia so co phieu mua dugc \a o cac
tai khoan cua cac co dong tham gia tren co sd ty ie. Chi phi giao
dich cua viec mua co phieu thap vi so lugng mua ldn, vi vay,
cac ke hoach nay rat co lgi cho cac co dong nho - nhung ngudi
\ t

khong can thu nhap tir co tire cho tieu dung hien tai.
/ *i f %

Loai ke hoach "co phieu mdi" yeu cau co tuc dugc tai dau
* *
tu vao cac co phieu mdi phat hanh. Vi vay, loai ke hoach nay
/ /
lam tang so lugng von mdi cho cong ty.

14.7. M ua lai co phieu

Thay viec thanh toan co tire bang tien, cong ty co the phan
phoi thu nhap cho cac co dong bang viec mua lai co phieu cua
ban than cong ty. Cac co phieu dugc cong ty mua lai dugc goi la
co phieu ngan quy "treasury stock". Neu nhu mot bo phan cd
phieu dang luu hanh dugc mua lai va dugc giur lam co phieu
ngan quv, so co phieu luu hanh tren thi trudng sc it han. Gia sir,
viec mua lai nay khong anh hudng xau den lgi nhuan ciia cong

282
ty thi so lgi nhuan tren mot co phieu se tang. dieu nay sc lam
tang gia thi trudng cua co phieu. Dieu do cung cd nghia cac co
dong se thu dugc lgi nhuan tir von thay cho viec nhan co tire.
Uu diem cua viec mua lai co phieu
/ t /

1. Thong bao mua lai se nhu la dau hieu tot doi vdi cac
nha dau tu bdi viec mua lai chinh la dau hieu cac nha quan ly
cong ty tin rang gia co phieu cong ty dang thap hon gia tri thue
cua no.
y y > /

2. Cac co dong co the sir lua chon co banlai co phieu cho

y y
cong ty hay khong. Tuy nhien cac co dong phai dugc nhan co
/

tuc va cung phai thanh toan thue thu nhap. chinh vi vay, nhung
i > > *» r t r
co dong nao can tien co the ban mot so cophieu cua ho, ngugc
1 X X y y /
lai nhung co dong khong can tien ngay co the giu co phieu cua
hg lai.
** . ' * f

3. Viec mua lai co phieu co the lam giam mot so lugng

* ' ' r » /

ldn co phieu tren thi trudng. Ma chinh vi so luong co phieu qua

a y f
ldn tren thi trudng do da lam giam gia thi trudng cua co phieu.
y t
4. Cac nha quan ly se mien cudng tang co tuc neu nhu
f

viec tang nay khong dugc duy tri dugc. Chinh vi vay, neu cac
\ > ^ ^

nha quan ly cho rang luong tien du thira chi la tam thdi thi hg se
/ 1

thich phan phoi thu nhap cho co dong thong qua hinh thue mua
■* » r ■» % \ r
lai co phieu hon la cong bo se tang co tuc bang tien neu nhu
y
viec lam nay khong the duy tri trong tuong lai.
y r y * •» /

5. Mua lai co phieu co the su dung de thay doi lai co cau

r
von.
i y r
Nhugc diem cua viec mua lai co phieu:

283
 1. C ac co dong co the khong bang quan giira co tire va thu
nhap tir von. Co tire bang tien co the co tac dong den gia eo
phieu nhieu hon so vdi viec mua lai.
2. Cac co dong ban lai co phieu co the khong nhan biet
dirge tat ca y nghTa nam trong chien dich mua lai co phieu cua
cong ty hoac cung co the ho khong dugc biet tat ca cac thong tin
ve hoat dong hien tai cung nhu tuang lai ciia cong ty.
3. Cac cong ty co the ap dat gia rat cao doi vdi cac co
phieu dugc mua lai va do la mot bat lgi cho cac cd dong con lai
ciia conc tv.

284
 P h u luc
THUYET MINH b A o C A O TAi CHiNH
• k ' k ' k ' k ^ ' k - k ' k ' k ' k ' k ' k ' k

C ong t\ co phan Duoc Hau Giang (DUG)

BAN TH UYET MINH BAO CAO TAI CHINH
Quv 1 Nam 2008
I. DAC DIEM HOAT DONG CUA CONG TY
• « *

1. Hinh tiitic so' hu u von : Cong ty co phan.

/ / /

2. Linh vuc kinh doanh : San xuat - che bien.

3. Nganh nghe kinh doanh
San xuat kinh doanh dugc. Xuat khau: dugc lieu, dugc
•> t * / r

pham theo qui dinh cua Bo Y te. Nhap khau: thiet bi san xuat
/ i /

thuoc, chrgc lieu, dugc pham theo qui dinh cua Bo Y te. San
9 9 9 i

xuat kinh doanh xuat khau cac mat hang thirc pham che bien. In
bao bi. Dich vu nhan va chi tra ngoai te. Gia cong, lap dat, sira
> 9 9 9

chua dien, dien lanh. Nhap khau true tiep trang thiet bj y te. San
xuat kinh doanh xuat khau thiet bi san xuat thuoc tu che tao tai
Cong ty. Djch vu du lich va van chuyen lu hanh noi dia. Kinh
9 / / ■»

doanh bat dong san. San xuat, kinh doanh, xuat khau cac mat
hang thirc pham chuc nang, my pham. Kinh doanh, xuat nhap
khau nguyen lieu thuoc thu y, thirc an gia sue, gia cam va thuy
hai san.
4. C ong ty con: Cong ty Co phan Dugc Song Hau
Dia chi: So 413 dudng Tran Hung Dao, phudng 2, thj xa
Vi Thanh, tinh Hau Giang
Giay chirng nhan dang ky kinh doanh so: 6403000044 do

285
phong Dang ky kinh doanh s kc hoach va Dau tu tinh Hau
(Jiang cap ngay 20/07'2007 v . ' . n dieu le 5 ty dong.
Ty lc lgi ich cua Cong ty 'c: 5 1%
Quyen bieu quyet cua con.;, ty me: 51 %
5. C o n g ty lien d oa n h , lien ket
C ong ty co phan Tao VInh Hao
Dia chi: Thon VTnh Son, xa VInh Hao, huycn Tuy Phong,
tinh Binh Thuan
Giay chung nhan dang ky kinh doanh so: 4803000150 do
phong Dang ky kinh doanh - So Ke hoach va Dau tu tinh Binh
Thuan cap ngay 04 thang 02 nam 2008 voi von dieu le 12 tv
dong.
Ty le co phan so him: 30%
Quyen bieu quyet: 30%
II. NAM TAI C H IN H , DON VI T IE N TE SU* DDNG
7 * • •

TRO N G KE TO A N
1. N am tai chinh
f \

Nam tai chinh cua Cong ty bat dau tir ngay 01 thang 01 va
*

ket thuc vao ngay 31 thang 12 hang nam.

2. D on vi tien te sir dung trong ke toan
\ * r %

Don vi tien te sir dung trong ke toan la Dong Viet Nam

(VND).
III. C H U A N MlTC VA CHE DO KE TOAN AP D I/N G
1. Che do ke toan ap dung
f e

Cong ty ap dung Che do Ke toan Doanh nghiep Viet Nam.

2. Tuyen bo ve viec tuan thu chuan m yc ke toan va che
d§ ke toan
f r ' \

Ban Tong Giam doc dam bao da tuan thu day du yeu cau

286
• cua cac Chuan nitre ke toan va Che do Kc toan Doanh nghiep
Viet N tm hien hanh trong viec lap Bao cao tai chinh.
3. Hinh thirc ke toan ap dung
Cong ty sir dung hinh thirc chirng tir ghi so.
IV. CAC CHINH SACH KE TOAN AP DDNG
1. Co’ so- lap Bao cao tai chi'nh
Bao cao tai chinh duoc trinh bay theo nguyen tac gia goc.
2. Tien va tiromg durong tien
Tien va cac khoan tuong duong tien bao gom tien mat,
\ S t \ f

tien gui ngan hang, tien dang chuyen va cac khoan dau tu ngan
0 \ *
han co thoi han thu hoi hoac dao han khong qua 3 thang ke tir
^ 1 X

ngay mua, de dang chuyen ddi thanh mot luong tien xac dinh
* 1 ’

cung nhu khong co nhieu rui ro trong viec chuyen doi.

3. Hang ton kho
Hang ton kho duoc xac dinh tren ca so gia goc. Gia goc
\ \ / r

hang ton kho bao gom chi phi mua, chi phi che bien va cac chi
# f % S

phi lien quan true tiep khac phat sinh de co duoc hang ton kho d
dia diem va trang thai hien tai.
/ X

Gia goc hang ton kho duoc tinh theo phuang phap binh
quan gia quyen va dugc hach toan theo phuong phap ke khai
thudng xuyen.
Dir phong giam gia hang ton kho dugc ghi nhan khi gia
goc ldn han gia tri thuan co the thue hien dugc. Gia tri thuan co
the thue hien dugc la gia ban udc tinh cua hang ton kho tru chi
phi udc tinh de hoan thanh san pham va chi phi udc tinh can
thiet cho viec tieu thu chung.
4. Cac khoan phai thu thirong mai va phai thu khac
Cac khoan phai thu thuang mai va cac khoan phai thu
khac dugc ghi nhan theo hoa dan, chung tir.

287
 r

5. l a i san co dinh huu hinh

•

Tai san co dinh dugc the men theo nguyen gia trir hao
rnon luy ke. Nguyen gia tai san cd dinh bao gom toan ho c.ic chi
phi ma Cong ty phai bo ra de co dugc tai san co dinh tinh den
thdi diem dua tai san do vao trang thai san sang su dung. Cac
chi phi phat sinh sau ghi nhan ban dau chi duoc ghi tang nguyen
gia tai san co dinh neu cac chi phi nay chac chan lam tang lgi
ich kinh te trong tuang lai do su dung tai san do. Cac chi phi
khong thoa man dieu kien tren dugc ghi nhan la chi phi trong
nam.
Khi tai san co dinh dugc ban hay thanh ly, nguyen gia va
khau hao luy ke dugc xoa so va bat ky khoan lai 16 nao phat
sinh do viec thanh ly deu dugc tinh vao thu nhap hay chi phi
trong ky.
t /

Tai san co djnh dugc khau hao theo p h u a n g phap d u d ng

1 ' *

thang dua trcn thdi gian huu dung udc tinh. So nam khau hao
cua cac loai tai san co dinh nhu sau:
Loai tai san co dinh So nam
t
Nha cua, vat kien true 5 - 10
f
May moc va thiet bi 5 -6
Phuang tien van tai, truyen dan 6 - 10
Thiet bj, dung cu quan ly 3 -5
6. Tai san co dinh vo hinh
•

* f
Q uyen su ’ d u n g dat
Quyen su dung dat la to' ; bo cac chi phi tlnrc te C ong ty
da chi ra co lien quan true tiep tdi dat sir dung, bao gom: tien
chi ra de co quyen sir dung dat, chi phi cho den bu, giai phong
mat bang, san lap mat bang, le phi trudc ' . Quyen su dung
dat dugc khau hao tu 43 nam. Rieng quyen du dat dugc

288
xac dinh lau dai khong tinh khau hao.
X X

Phan m em m ay tinh
Phan mem may tinh la toan bo cac chi phi ma Cong ty da
chi ra tinh den thai diem dira phan mem vao su dung. Phan
\ /

mem may vi tinh ducrc khau hao trong 3 - 5 nam.

7. C hi phi di vay
Chi phi di vay dugc ghi nhan vao chi phi trong nam.
f / X

Truong hgp chi phi di vay lien quan true tiep den viec dau tu
r x

xay dung hoac san xuat tai san do dang can co mot thoi gian du
1 1

dai (tren 12 thang) de co the dua vao sir dung theo muc dich
dinh trudc hoac ban thi chi phi di vay nay dugc von hoa.
/ t

Ddi vdi cac khoan von vay chung trong do co su dung cho
X f

muc dich dau tu xay dung hoac san xuat tai san dd dang thi chi
9 f f f

phi di vay von hoa dugc xac dinh theo ty le von hoa doi vdi chi
f \ X

phi luy ke binh quan gia quyen phat sinh cho viec dau tu xay
dung co ban hoac san xuat tai san do. Ty le von hoa dugc tinh
theo ty le lai suat binh quan gia quyen cua cac khoan vay chua
tra (rong nam, ngoai tru cac khoan vay rieng biet phuc vu cho
•*

muc dich hinh thanh mot tai san cu the.

0 ♦ *

8. Dau tir tai chinh

Cac khoan dau tu vao chung khoan dugc ghi nhan theo
r

gia goc.
Du phong giam gia chung khoan dugc lap cho timg loai
chung khoan dugc mua ban tren thi trudng va co gia thi trudng
giam so vdi gia dang hach toan tren so sach. Du phong ton that
n v r

cho cac khoan dau tu tai chinh vao cac to chuc kinh te khac
1 f , N

dugc trich lap khi cac to chuc kinh te nay bi lo (tru truong hop
^ f

lo theo ke hoach da dugc xac dinh trong phuang an kinh doanh

X ^

trudc khi dau tu) vdi muc trich lap tuang ung vdi ty le gop von
* r

cua Cong ty trong cac to chuc kinh te nay.

289
 \ >

Khi thanh ly mot khoan dau tu, phan chenh le d giua gia
tri thanh ly thuan va gia tri ghi so dugc hach toan vao thu nhan
hoac chi phi trong nam.
9. Chi phi phai tra
Chi phi phai tra dugc ghi nhan dua tren cac udc tinh hgp
% r '
ly ve so tien phai tra cho cac hang hoa, dich vu da su ding trong
nam.
t

Chi phi khuyen mai dugc trich tu 10 - 25% trin doanh

thu ban hang.
F r

10. Trich lap quy du- phong tro1cap mat viec lira
Quy d u phong trg cap mat viec lam dugc dung Ce chi tra
t f ^ '

trg cap thoi viec, mat viec. M uc trich quy d u phong trc cap mat
f

viec lam la 3% quy luong lam co so dong bao hiem ;.a hoi va
dugc hach toan vao chi phi trong nam. Trudng hgj quy du
f t v m f

phong trg cap mat viec lam khong du de chi trg cap cio ngudi
lao dong thoi viec, mat viec trong nam thi phan chenh l;ch thieu
dugc hach toan vao chi phi.
11. Nguon von kinh doanh - quy
\ t \

Nguon von kinh doanh cua Cong ty bao gom:

• Von dau tu cua chu sd huu: dugc ghi nhar theo so
thuc te da dau tu cua cac co dong.
t i y y

• Thang d u von co phan: chenh lech do phat hanh co

phieu cao hon menh gia.
Cac quy dugc trich lap va su dung theo Dieu le Cong ty.
12. C6tu-c
, j

Co tuc dugc ghi nhan la no phai tra trong nam co u c dugc

cong bo.
13. Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep
Cong ty co nghTa vu nop thue thu nhap doanh njhiep vdi

290
thue suat 20% tren thu nhap chiu thue trong thdi gian 10 nam
dau ke tu khi chuyen sang hoat dong dirdi hinh thue Cong ty co
phan va bang 28% trong cac .nam tiep theo. Cong ty dugc mien
thue thu nhap doanh nghiep trong 02 nam ke tu nam 2005 va
giam 50% trong 05 nam tiep theo. Ngay 21 thang 12 nam 2006,
1 f ' • * f
co phieu cua Cong ty Co phan Dugc Hau Giang dugc niem yet
tai Sd Giao dich Chung khoan TP. Ho Chi Minh, do vay Cong
ty dugc giam 50% thue thu nhap doanh nghiep trong 02 nam
(2007 -20 08 ).
Chi phi thue thu nhap doanh nghiep trong nam bao gom
/ f

thue thu nhap hien hanh va thue thu nhap hoan lai.
r f
Thue thu nhap hien hanh la khoan thue dugc tinh dua tren
f f r 9
thu nhap chju thue trong nam vdi thue suat ap dung tai ngay
cuoi nam. Thu nhap chiu thue chenh lech so vdi lgi nhuan ke
toan la do dieu chinh cac khoan chenh lech tam thdi giua thue
f \

va ke toan cung nhu dieu chinh cac khoan thu nhap va chi phi
khong phai chiu thue hay khong dugc khau tru.
/ f

Thue thu nhap hoan lai la khoan thue thu nhap doanh
nghiep se phai nop hoac se dugc hoan lai do chenh lech tam thdi
giua gia tri ghi so cua tai san va ng phai tra cho muc di'ch Bao
f f
cao tai chinh va cac gia tri dung cho muc dich thue. Thue thu
nhap hoan lai phai tra dugc ghi nhan cho tat ca cac khoan chenh
lech tam thdi chiu thue. Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai chi dugc
f f r

ghi nhan khi chac chan trong tuong lai se co loi nhuan tinh thue
de sir dung nhung chenh lech tam thdi dugc khau trir nay.
Gia tri ghi so cua tai san thue thu nhap doanh nghiep hoan
lai duoc xem xet lai vao ngay ket thue nam tai chinh va se duoc
f f r t

ghi giam den muc dam chac chan co du lgi nhuan tinh thue
cho phep lgi ich cua mot phan hoac toan bo tai san thue thu
nhap hoan lai dugc su dung.
r r

Tai san thue thu nhap hoan lai va thue thu nhap hoan lai

291
phai tra duoc xae dinh theo thue suat du tinh se ap dun; c h o
*

nam tai san duoc thu hoi hay ng phai tra dugc thanh toai d u a
* r t

tren cac muc thue suat co hieu lire tai ngay ket thuc nan tai
t

chinh. Thue thu nhap hoan lai dugc ghi nhan trong Bao Cio ket
t

qua hoat dong kinh doanh trir khi lien quan den cac khoar rnuc
1 f /

dugc ghi thang vao von chu so huu khi do thue thu nhap coanh
-» f

nghiep se dugc ghi thang vao von chu scr huu.

14. N guyen tac chuyen doi ngoai te
Cac nghiep vu phat sinh bang ngoai te dugc chuyei d o i
f

theo ty gia tai ngay phat sinh nghiep vu. So d u cac khoan m u c
tien te co goc ngoai te cuoi ky dugc qui doi theo ty gia tai ngay
f

cuoi ky.
Chenh lech ty gia phat sinh trong nam va chenh lech ty g iu
do danh gia lai cac khoan muc tien te co goc ngoai te cuoi nSm
dugc ghi nhan vao thu nhap hoac chi phi trong nam.
15. N guyen tac ghi nhan doanh thu
Khi ban hang hoa, thanh pham doanh thu dugc ghi ih;an
' ' ' t
khi phan Ion rui ro va lgi ich gan lien vai viec scr huu hanj hioa
do dugc chuyen giao cho nguoi mua va khong con ton tai y*u to
f / 1 ' ^ • A 1 •

khong chac chan dang ke lien quan den viec thanh toan tier, c h i
phi kem theo hoac kha nang hang ban bi tra lai.
Tien lai dugc ghi nhan tren c a sa thdi gian va lai suat onng
nam.
16. Ben lien quan
t

Cac ben du gc coi la lien quan neu mot ben co kha iamg
kiem so&t hoac co anh hudng dang ke doi vdi ben kia trong viiec.
9

ra quyet dinh cac chinh sach tai chinh va hoat dpng.

Giao djch vdi cac ben co lien quan trong nam dugc rimh
bay d thuyet minh so VII.
 V. THONG TIN BO SUNG CHO CAC KHOAN MUC
TRINH BAY TRONG BANG CAN DOI KE TOAN
■» ^

1. T ien va cac khoan tuong duong tien

r \

S o c u o i kv So dau nam

T i e n m.it 10.973.801 731

1 7 .3 9 1 .4 5 4 .5 8 5

T ien gti ngan hang 160.136.847.439

1 1 2 . 5 5 9 .9 9 4 . 1 3 5
%

T ien dsng c h u y e n 3.422.496.394 -

Cong 174.533.145.640 129.951.448.720

2. Dau tir ngan han

So cuoi k y So dau nam

C o phieu
2.027.112.420 1 .9 5 5 .1 1 2 . 4 2 0

T i e n gi'i c o k y h a n tir 1 n a m
trcr x u o n g 50.000.000.000

Cong 2.027.112.420 51.955.112.420

3. Phai thu khach hang
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Cac khach hang
trong mac 286.780.729.784 234.603.263.447

Cac khach hang

nuac ngoai 3 . 5 3 4 .1 2 8 . 3 1 1 835.514.437

C(»ng 290.314.858.095 235.438.777.884

4. Tra trirffc cho ngiroi ban
X
f t X» * »

So c u o i kv So dau nSm
Cac nla cung cap trong
nirac 1 0 . 4 8 8 .5 0 8 . 7 1 9 2 . 4 3 8 .9 7 8 . 1 9 1

293
 XX X
S o c u o i k va/ So d a u nam

Cac nha cung cap nircrc

ngoai 2.282.689.958 123.301 700
Cong 12.771.198.677 2.562.339.391

5. Cac khoan phai thu khac

So cuoi ky So dau nam
Cho mircm tien va tai
trg 5.307.293.234 7.036.418 329
Phai thu cac chi nhanh
tien hang chua nop 7.765.640.640
Chi ho tien xay dung
cho Cty TNHH Him
Lam 1.052.485 000 1.052.485.000
Phai thu khac 4.523.076.177 3.526.299.986

Cong 10.882.854.411 19.380.843.955

6. H ang ton kho
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Hang mua dang di
tren dircmg 9.435.054.090 36.547.193.668
Nguyen lieu, vat lieu 80.518.978.507 76.877.138.482
e

Chi phi san xuat, kinh

doanh da dang 23.856.677.041 15.107.019.223
Thanh pham 83.559.762.563 96.235.251.331
Hang hoa 5.347.569.928 5.512.374.816
Hang gui di ban 11.542.581.447 -

Cong
214.260.623.576 230.278.977.520

294
 0

7. Chi phi t r a triroc ngan han

Ket chuyen vao
chi phi SXKD So cuoi ky
So (tiiu n5m TSng trong ky trong ky
Tien thue
nha 445.432.66S 718.917.82C 438.033.654 726.316.835
Chi phi
si>a c hua 8.812.00C 547.916.263 192.895.145 363.833.1 18
Chi phi
khac 525.785.82C 2.794.263.421 1.406.697.835 1.913.351.406
C$ng 980.030.489 4.061.097.504 2.037.626.634 3.003.501.359
8. T hue va cac khoan phai thu Nha niro’c
So cuoi ky So aau nam

Thue xuat nhap khau 244.793.403

Thue thu nhap ca nhan 820.829.534

Tien thue.dat -

Cong 1.065.622.937
9. Tai san ngan han khac
So cuoi ky So dau nam

Tam ung
4.769.491.771 3.239.570.529
Cac khoan cam co, ky quy, ky
cugc ng&n han -

Cong 4.769.491.771 3.239.570.529

10. Phai thu dai han khac
•

So cuoi ky So dau n§m

Phai thu khac 100.469.612 114.269.612
Cong 100.469.612 114.269.612

295
 11. T an g, gia m tai san co dinh h u u hinh
Phurcmg
tien van
Nha cu-a, M ay m oc ta i,
*
T h ie t bi,
vat kien v a th iet tru y en d u n g cu
true bi •
dan q u a n ly C ong
Nguyen gia
168,877.796.56
So dau nam 26.826.973.10C 86.129.255.8 30.084.064.07* 25.837.503.58$ *

T ang trong
ky 37.809.825 648.031.405 2.151.417.976 415.713.836 3.252.973.042
Mua sarn
m ai 648.031.405 2.151.417.976 415.713.836 3 .2 1 5 .1 6 3 .2 1 7
*

D au tu x a y
d u n g c a ban %

hoan thanh 37.809.825 37. 809.825

G iam trong
ky 75.152.000 503.364.830 578.516.830
Thanh ly,
nhuang ban 75.152.000 503.364.830 578. 516.830
171.552^52.79
S6cu 6ik y 26.864.782.925 86.702.135.223 32.235.482.054 25.749.852.595 7

Trong do:
B a khau hao
het van con
SU d yn g 1.985.460.381 6.078.686.430 416.09Z072 3.788.169.634 12.268.408.517

Gia tri hao

mon
27.082.223.56 57.582.850.7
S o dau nam g 268.358.522 4 8.277.110.570 12.955.158.061 17
Khau hao 6.919.820.98
trong ky 763.054.102 3.698.677.709 1.259.475.904 1.198.613.268 3

296
 P hirong
# * A A

tien van
N ha cura, M a y m oc tai, T h iet bj,
vat kien va th iet tru yen d u n g cu
tru e hi dan q uan ly Cong
Giam trong
ky 75.152.000 503.364.830 578.516.830
Thanh ly,
nhucmg ban 75.152.000 503.364.830 578.516.830
10.031.412.62 30.705.749.27 63.924.154.8
S o cu oi ky 4 3 9.536.586.474 13.650.406.499 70

Gia tri con

lai
/ \
17.558.614.57 59.047.032.25 21.806.953.50 111.294.945.
So dau nam 8 8 12.882.345.528 868
16.833.370.30 55.996.385.95 22.698.895.58 107.628.097.
S o cuoi ky 1 0 0 12.099.446.096 927

12. Tang, giam tai san co djnh vo hinh

X. a X
Quyen sir dung Phan mem
dat may vi tinh Cong
Nguyen gia

So dau nam
104.570.482.635 975.822.044 105.546.304.679
Tang trong ky 1.700.000.000 1.700.000.000
Mua trong ky
So cuoi ky 106.270.482.635 975.822.044 107.246.304.679

Gia tri hao

mon

So dau nam
89.956.029 183.805.671 273.761.700
Tang trong ky 38.554.281 55.349.829 93.904.110

297
 n \ >

Quyen sur dung Phan mem

dat may vi tinh Cong
Khau hao
trong ky 38.554.281 55.349.829 93.904.110
So cuoi ky 128.510.312 239.155.498 367.66S.810
Gia tri con lai
• •
f %

So dau nam 104.480.526.606 792.016.373 105.272.542.970

So cuoi ky 106.141.972.323 736.666.546 106.878.638.869
13. C hi phi xay dirng ca ban dir dang
Ket
chuyen Ket
Chi phi phat vao chuyen
So dau nam So cuoi ky
sinh trong ky TSCD giam
trong khac
ky
Mua
sam
TSCD 9.559.004.475 1.372.758.822 10.931.763.297
XDCB
dcr
dang 2.654.858.586 460.702.576 3.115.561.162
Sua
chira
Ion
TSCD
Cong 12.213.863.061 1.833.461 J98 14.047.324.459
14. D au tir vao C ong ty con
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Dau tu vao Cong ty Cp Dirge
Song Hau 2.550.000.000
C?ng 2.550.000.000

298
 15. Dau tu- vao Cong ty lien doanh, lien ket
So cuoi kv So dau nam
Dau 1tr v a o C o n g ty C p Frio
VTtih l ! \ o 3.600.000 "00

Cong _ _ _ _ 3.600.000.000
_
16. D au tu- dai han khac
So cuoi kv So dau nam
Dau tir co phieu 55.896.850.200 35.674.890.200
Dau tir trai phieu -
Con^ 55.896.850.200 35.674.890.200
17. Tai san dai han
• khac
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Ky quy, ky cirgc dai han 1.540.559.084 1.300.951.659
f **
Cong 1.540.559.084 1.300.951.659
r

18. Vay va no* ngan han

So cuoi ky So dau nam
Vay ngan han ngan hang 91.855.968.610 29.787.654.844
- Ngan hang Thuang mai Co
phan Hang hai Viet Nam - Chi
nhanh Cdn Tha,a> 66.317.631.677 29.787.654.844
- Ngan hang Thuong mai Co
phan A Chau Viet Nam - Chi
nhanh Cdn Tha w 8.023.666.560
\

- Ngan hang Hong Kong va

Thuang Hai -Chi nhanh Cdn Tha
(C )
16.602.948.600
Vay cac ca nhan vcri lai suat 0,82%
<» 1 /

de bo sung von kinh doanh 12.218.838.836 13.642.206.572

Cong 103.163.085.673 43.429.861.416

299
 (a) Vay Ngan hang Thuang mai Co phan Hang hai Viet
Nam - Chi nhanh Can T h a vai lai suat theo thai diem nhan ng,
de bo sung von luu dong. Khoan vay nay duac dam bao bang
viec the chap hang ton kho.
y \ r
(b) Vay Ngan hang Thuang mai Co phan A Chau Viet Nam
- Chi nhanh Can T h a vai lai suat theo thai diem nhan no, dc
mua nguyen vat lieu.
>

(c) Vay Ngan hang Hong Kong va T h u a n g Hai - Chi

* ' » «* *
nhanh Can T h a vai lai suat theo thdi diem nhan ng, de mua
^nguyen vat lieu.
Chi tiet so phat sinh ve cac khoan vay nhu sau:
S6 dau nam 43.429.861 416
So tien vay phat sinh trong ky 107.424.451.613
So tien vay da tra trong ky 47.691.227.356
So cuoi ky 103.163.085.673

19. Phai tra ngtroi ban

So cuoi ky So dau nam
r

Cac nha cung cap

trong nude 18.010.132.971 16.042.466.368
Cac nha cung cap
nude ngoai 6.974.938.818 39.599.540.717

Cong 24.985.071.789 55.642.007.085

20. Ngu-di mua tra tien trudc
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Ngudi mua trong nude 142.454.939 293.206.185
Ngudi mua nucrc ngoai 46.569.600
Cong 189.024.539 293.206.185

300
 21. T h u e va cac k h o a n phai nop Nha niro'c
So phai nop So da nop
So dau nam trong ky trong ky So cuoi ky
Thue GTGT
h a n g b a n noi
dia 1.863.044.315 7.319.414.300 5.211.220.200 3.971.238.415
Thue GTGT
hang nhap
khau 6.410.577.019 6.410.577.019
T h u e x u a t,
nhap khau 478.803.101 1.375.666.892 2.099.263.396 (244.793.403)
T h u e thu
n h a p ca
nhan 12.723.885 2.835.621.263 3.669.174.682 (820.829.534)

T ien thue
dat 2.030.414.428 2.030.414.428
Thue mon
b ai 40.000.000 40.000.000

Cong 2.354.571.30! 20.011.693.902 17.430.235.297 4.936.029.906

Thue nop thira dugc trinh bay d chi tieu Thue va cac
r r

khoan khac phai thu Nha nude (xem thuyet minh sd V.8).
Thue gid tri gia tang
t f

Cong ty nop thue gia tri gia tang theo phuang phap khau
tru. Thue suat thue gia tri gia tang cho cac nhom mat hang nhu
sau:
Dugc pham 5%
Hoa chat, dugc lieu 10%

Thue xuat, nhap khau

Cong ty ke khai va nop theo thong bao cua Hai quan.
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep

301
 Xem thuyet minh so IV. 13.
r

Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep phai nop trong ky dugc du

tinh nhu sau:
Ky nay Ky triro’c
Tong lgi nhuan ke toan truac
thue 41.835.340.672 29.209.307.585
%

Cac khoan dieu chinh tang,

r *

giam loi nhuan ke toan de xae

djnh loi nhuan chju thue thu
nhap doanh nghiep:
Cac khoan dieu chinh
tang
Cac khoan dieu chinh
giam
Tong thu nhap chju thue 41.835.340.672 29.209.307.585
Thue suat thue thu nhap doanh
nghiep 20% 20%
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep
phai npp 8.367.068.134 5.841.861.517
Thue thu nhap doanh nghiep
dugc giam (8.367.068.134) (5.841.861.517)
Thue thu nhap doanh
nghiep con phai nop -

Cac loai thue khac

Cong ty ke khai va nop theo qui dinh.
22. Phai tra ngiroi lao dong
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Phai tra ngudi lao dong 27.039.517.714 40.455.717.787

Cong 27.039.517.714 40.455.717.787

302
 23. Chi phi phai tra
So cuoi ky So dau nam
Chi phi khuyen mai, quang
118.505.475.169 102.491.709.182
cao
Chi phi lai v a y p h a i tr a 342.9S7.S53 171.047.174
T ie n d ie n , n ir a c , d i e n t h o a i . . . 779.981.202 626.459.214
Chi phi k h a c 640.186.941 5.295.225.860
Cong 120.268.631.164 108.584.441.430
r

24. Cac khoan phai tra, phai nop ngan han khac
r *
/V A « | >

So cuoi kv So dau nam

B ao h ie m x a hoi

B a o h i e m y te 1.174.417 1.972.397
K i n h phi c o n g d o a n 1.096.446.755 503.579.977
Co tire phai tra 20.016.200.000 20.024.000.000
T a m th u tie n c h u y e n q u y e n s a
11.350.000.000 11.350.000.000
hfru n h a

Phai tra k h a c 6.989.784.052 7.178.485.073

Cong 39.453.605.224 39.058.037.447

25. Phai tra dai han khac •

r r
n a a • « >

So cuoi ky So dau nam

K y q u y , k y c irg c dai h a n 46.792.342 46.792.342
Cong 46.792.342 46.792.342
JT r ^

26. D u-phong tro1cap mat viec lam

So dau nam 766.782.945
S o trich la p t r o n g ky 233.961.372
S o chi t r o n g ky 215.476.200
So cuoi ky 785.268.117

303
 27. Von chii so huu
f f t r

Bang doi chien bien dong cua van chii so' huu \ t f r

Thong tin ve bien dong cua von chu sd huu dirge :rinhbay
d Phu luc 1.
f f S

Chi tiet vdn dau tir cua chii sff huu

r
A. A • | *

So cuoi ky So diu nan

Von dau tu cua Nha nuac 88.400.000.000 88.4)0.0(0.000
/ *

Von gop cua cac co dong khac 111.600.000.000 111.600.0(0.000

Cong 200.000.000.000 200.000.0(0.000
•7 f
/ ~ f A f • A

L o p h ie u

A i

So cuoi ky So dau nan

f 1 ^ /

So lugng co phieu dang ky phat

hanh
/ y f

So lugng co phieu da ban ra cong

chung 20.000.000 20.0(0.000

- Co phieu pho thong

20. 000.000 20. 0( 0.000
♦ t

- Co phieu uu dai - -

So lugng co phieu dugc mua lai - -

- Co phieu pho thong - -

- Co phieu tru dai - -

f * r

So lugng co phieu dang liru hanh

20.000.000 20.0(0.000

- Co phieu pho thong

20. 000.000 20. 0( 0.000
- Co phieu uu dai - -

Menh gia cd phieu dang luu hanh: 10.000 VND.

> •>

M uc dich trich lap quy dau tu p h a t trien, quy die p ld n g

tai chinh
\ t i i F m *

Quy dau tu phat trien dugc dung de bd sung v o i dieu le

cua Cong ty.

304
 Quy du phong tai chinh dugc dung de:
- Bu dap nhung ton that, thiet hai ve tai san, cong ng
khong doi dugc xay ra trong qua trinh kinh doanh;
r ~ r

- Bu dap khoan lo cua Cong ty theo quyet dinh cua Hoi

dong quan tri.
28. Quy khen thirong, phuc loi
Tang Chi quy trong
So dau nam khac ky So cuoi ky
Quy khen
tlnrcrng 10.827.141.374 900.000 7.638.596.285 3.189.445.089
Quy phuc
lai 5.001.697.336 1.662.491.680 3.339.205.656
Cons' 15.828.838.710 900.000 9.301.087.965 6.528.650.745

VI. TH O N G TIN BO SUNG CHO CAC KHOAN M UC

TRINH BAY TR O N G BAO CAO KET QUA HOAT DONG
KINH DOANH
1. Doanh thu ban hang va cung cap dich vu
Ky nay Ky trirdc
Tong doanh thu 380.858.259.283 274.044.915.411
Doanh thu ban thanh
phdm 359.380.371.640 258.782.861.060
Doanh thu ban hang
hoa 7.653.337.992 10.308.506.717
Doanh thu ban nguyen
vat lieu 13.824.549.651 4.953.547.634
Cac khoan giam tru doanh
thu: (3.544.622.220) (4.127.791.400)
Chiet khau th u ^ a
mai
Giam gid hang ban (19.692.655) (15.610.463)

305
 Ky nav
%■' W
Kv triroc
V

H ang ban bi trd lai (3.524.929.565) (4.112.180.937)

'I
Doanh thu thuan 377.313.637.063 269.917.124.011
Trong do:
\
D oanh thu thuan ban
thanh pham 355.843.011.386 254.682.349.802
>

D oanh thu thuan ban

hang hoa 7.646.076.026 10.281.226.575
D oanh thu thuan ban
nguyen vat lieu 13.824.549.651 4.953.547.634
2. Gia von hang ban
Ky nay Ky triro-c
t 1
Gia von cua thanh pham T

da cung cap 159.515.829.582 135.971.527.010

f

Gia von cua hang hoa da

f

cung cap 6.941.622.640 9.483.349.891

Gia von cua nguyen vat
lieu da cung cap 12.404.755.824 4.393.304.221
C ong 178.862.208.046 149.848.181.122
3. D oanh thu hoat <J?ng tai chinh
Ky nay Ky triroc
# X
Lai tien gui 4.036.272.201 53.513.961
Lai chenh lech ty gia da thirc
hien 513.032.419 310.144.079
\ * f r

Lai dau tu co phieu, trai phieu 503.789.000

Cong 5.053.093.620 363.658.040
4. Chi phi tai chinh

306
 Ky nay Ky trir6c
Lai tien vay 1.460X40.5 18 5.259.272.171
Chi phi khac 545.619.632 278.747.557
Cong 2.006.460.150 5.538.019.728
5. Chi phi ban hang
Ky
Kv nav . f
tru-o'c
Chi phi cho nhan vien 23.069.209.754 12.080.918.383
Chi phi nguyen lieu, vat lieu 866.190.900 412.856.426
Chi phi dung cu do dung 519.770.263 473.610.372
Chi phi khau hao tai san co djnh 1.272.410.133 487.044.671
Chi phi bao hanh -

Chi phi djch vy mua ngoai 98.754.889.418 50.532.396.284

Chi phi khac * 18.024.562.912 11.249.360.474
C$ng 142.507.033.380 75.236.186.610

6. C hi phi quan ly doanh nghiep

Ky nay Ky tru-o’c
Chi phi cho nhan vien 11.237.680.819 5.394.022.526
Chi phi nguyen lieu, vat li?u -

Chi phi cong cy van phong 446.535.002 191.009.358

Chi phi khau hao tai san co djnh 480.117.937 1.164.000.077
Thue, phi va le phi 39.000.000 29.000.000
Chi phi dy phong 233.961.372 161.087.670
Chi phi djch vy mua ngoai 1.300.789.899 1.956.882.499
Chi phi khac 3.090.018.672 1.576.020.161
 Ky nay Ky truoc
Cong 16.828.103.701 10.472.022.291

7. Thu nhap khac

Ky nay Ky triro'c
t
Thu thanh ly tai san co djnh 10.380.953 37.171.429
Thu ban phe li?u 100.438.095 186.738.143
Thu khac 20.228.626 7,988.994
A

-png 131.047.674 231.8*0.56*

8. Chi phi khac

Ky n iy Ky truoc
3ia trj tai san thanh ly nhirgng •

jan 143.321.903
Zhi phi kh&c 458.632.408 65.641.378
C?ng 458.632.408 208.963.281

9. Lai c v ban tren co phieu

K yn4y Ky truac
Lgi nhu$n ke toan sau thue thu nh|p
ioanh nghiep 41.835.340.672 29.209.307.585
Zic khoan dieu chinh tang, giim lgi
ihu$n ke toan de xac djnh lgi nhuan
)han bo cho co dong sd huu cd
■>hi£u pho thong
Lgi nhuan phUn
♦ f
b6 cho cd dong sd
f

liru co phieu pho thong 41.835.340.672 29.209.307.585

2o phieu pho thong dang luu hanh
)inh quan trong nam 20.000.000 8.000.000
L,ii ca ban tren co phiiu 2.092 3.651

308
 / * *
10. Chi phi san xuat kinh doanh theo yeu to
Ky nay Ky trircVc

Chi phi nguyen lieu, vat lieu 135.227.059.143 106.255.888.395

Chi phi nhan cong 53.323.102.433 41.339.971.725
Chi phi khau hao tai san co dinh 7.013.725.093 5.293.040.998
Chi phi dich vy mua ngoai 105.844.696.983 79.754.428.878
Chi phi khac 25.758.367.797 15.092.420.508

C$ng 327.166.951.449 247.735.750.504

VII. n h Ct n g t h 6 n g t i n k h a c
G iao djch v6i c4c ben lien quan

Thu nhap cua c&c thanh vien quan ly chu chot nhu sau:

Ky nay Ky trirofc
Tien luong 618.268.877 675.562.534
Thu lao 168.000.000 48.000.000
TiSn thircmg *

C<?ng 786.268.877 723.562.534

Can Tha, ngay 24 thang 04 n&m 2008

0 5 n g P ha m H u y i n Nhu n g Bui Minh Dire Le C h i n h Dao

Ngirfri lfip bleu Quyen Ke toAn trirfrng Ph6 Tong G i i m doc

309
 DANH MUC TAI LIEU THAM KHAO
• »

TAI LIEU TIENG VIET

• •

t i r

1. Cac quy dinh mai ve doanh nghiep Nha nuac, NXBThong

ke, Ha Noi, 1997.
f r *
2. Che do quan ly, su dung va trich khau hao tai sai co dinh, Bo
Tai chinh, NXB Tai chinh, Ha Noi, 1996.
3. Che dp mdi ve quan ly tai chinh doanh nghiep Mia nuac, Bo
Tai chinh, NXB Tai chinh, Ha Npi, 1998.
4. Liru Thj Huang (chu bien), Giao trinh Tai :hinh doanh
nghiep, Dai hpc Kinh tS Quoc dan, NXB Giao luc, Ha Noi,
1998.
5. Kinh te Vift Nam, Van phong Chinh phu - Chucng trinh phat
trien Lien hap quoc - Vien phat trien kinh te N;an hang the
giai, NXB Ha Noi, 1993.
6. Truong Moc Lam va Duong Dang Chinh (chi bien), Giao
trinh tai chinh hoc, NXB Th6ng ke, Ha Noi, 199:.
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1998.
8. Luat cong ty, NXB Chinh tri quoc gia, Ha Noi, 1'96.
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10. Lu|it Ngan hang Nha nuac Viet Nam, NXB Clinlh tri quoc
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310
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Ha Noi, 1997.

TAI L IE U T IE N G ANH
13. Business, 3rd Edition, Ricky VV.Griffin Ronald J. Ebert,
Prentice Hall, 1993 [p.33],
14. Financial Management and policy, James C. Van Horn,
Prentice - Hall International Inc., 8th Edition U.S.A. 1989.
15. Principles o f finance with corporate applications, Douglas
R.Emery and John D.Finnerty, West Publishing Company,
New York, USA, 1991.
16. Management accounting, Kim Langfild - Smith - Helen
Thone, The McGraw - Hill Companies, Incl., 2000.
17. Principles o f Corporate Finace, Fourth Edition, Richard A.
Brealey/S:ewart C.Myer 1991.
18. Corpora:e Finace, Fourth Edition, Ross, Westerfield and
Jaffe, 1995.

311