Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Modul 13-14
Cellular Network Planning
Traffic Forecasting:
– To measure the demand on targeted marked so as to allow
an appropriate growth of the Network.
Coverage:
– To obtain the ability of the network ensure the availability of
the service in the entire service area.
Capacity:
– To support the subscriber traffic with sufficiently low blocking
and delay.
Quality:
– Linking the capacity and the coverage and still provide
the required QoS.
Costs:
– To enable an economical network implementation when the
service is established and a controlled network expansion
during the life cycle of the network.
4 Business Planning
Marketing is responsible the revenue side and must
also produce a traffic forecast.
The engineering model must translate the traffic forecast into
a network plan and generate the capex and opex numbers to
be passed to the financial model.
The financial model takes in information from marketing,
including key metrics, revenue forecast, acquisition costs
and capex, opex from the engineering model.
Pemasaran
MarketingModel
Model
Rekayasa Model
Engineering Model
Finance
Keuangan
Model
Model
5 Financial model
Capturing all the detail of the customer base dynamics,
the financial model allows the most comprehensive and
rigorous approach to forecasting the cost base and
ultimately a valuation.
The financial model outputs are those used by
decision makers at board level and the financial
community.
The presentation pack produced by the financial model
provides a complete business case, which takes the
reader from an analysis of the population through to a
range of valuations.
The valuation of the business case is the ultimate
objective of the suite of models.
6
The model combines inputs from the marketing and the engineering
models with operating cost assumptions to forecast the financial
statements and free cash flow.
Engineering Model’s Market Forecast Model,
Operational Structure,
Teknik Model
Network Opex Jaringan
and Mod
Pelanggan dan Pendapatan Struktur Operasional
Distribution Channels,
Opex dan Capex Prakiraan
Capex Forecasts Saluran Distribusi,
Staffing etc.
Prakiraan el
Pasar Prakiraan Staffing dll
Customers and Revenue
Model Forecasts
Bisnis Perencanaan
Business Planning
Model
Model
Network Capex and Opex Operating Cost Assumptions
Forecast
Profit Cash
Cash
Flow
&
& Loss
Loss Flow
Balance
Sheet
Sheet All figures in Nominal Local Currency
FreeCash
Free CashFlow
FlowininNominal
NominalLocal
LocalCurrency
Currency
(Operating Cash Flow less Capital Expenditure)
7 Marketing Model
What kind of Services do
we offer?
do we offer?
Essentially the question is how many customers are there and what
does the mobile operator has to deliver for the money paid by
those customers.
8 Cost and Revenue Structure
EndUser
End UserRevenue
Revenue
Internet
Internet
Connectivity
Connectivity
Cost
Cost
3G Operator’s
Radio 3G Operator’s
Core
CoreNetwork
Network
Network Cost
Cost Cost 3G
3G Operator’s
Operator’s
Hosting
Hosting
Platform
Platform
Revenue
Revenue
End User Third Party Revenue
The Diversity of 3G Applications and
9 Sources of Billing
Customer
Customer Category Application Type What is Billed
• Visits or responses
•Visits • Hits, exposure, hosting, transport
•Hits,
Advertiser
• Pushing targeted
•Pushing targeted advertisements
advertisements • Customer information,
•Customer transport
information, transport
Content •Content
• placed on
Content placed on portal
portal or
or in
in walled
walled •Hosting,
• Hosting, content
content &
& customer
customer data
data management,
management,
Content
Provider garden, retail
garden, retail outlet
outlet transport, secure
transport, secure transaction,
transaction, billing
billing &
& collection
collection
Third Party •Delivery of push content, e.g.
e.g. share
Provider • Delivery of push content, share •Transport
• Transport
Party price information
price information
E- • Sales transaction
•Sales Hosting, billing & collection, secure, payment,
•Hosting,
•
Commerce transport
Vendor • Targeting information
•Targeting information at
at individuals
individuals User profile information, transport
•User
•
who
who fulfil
fulfil certain
certain criteria
criteria
•Interconnect
• Interconnect •Terminating
• Terminating traffic on operator’s network
Other Operator •Network
• capacity, e.g.
Network capacity, e.g. MVNO
MVNO •Transport,
• Transport, co-location
•Roaming
• Roaming •Transport
• Transport
10 3G Tariff Dimensions for
different Services Packages
Tariff Dimension
I News, Games,
nf Gambling Relevant ghl
or y
11 Tariff Plans to Suit Market Segments
and Applications.
Customer
Customer Internet
Internet&
&Intranet
IntranetAccess
Access Messaging
Messaging Content
Content
InternetInternet
Café model: pay per
Café model: Pay perPay
message withoutwithout
per message file Subscription based on
Subscription
day when youpaywant
pertoday
usewhen
the attachment file attachment subscription based
to content
on
service you want to use the BundledBundled
numbernumber
of messages
of per Pay per event subscription
service month messages per to content
Mass M Low cost walled garden Pay per use for user pulled
Market a InternetLow
access
costwith limited
walled Free to user:month
3rd party pays, Pay per event
content
Consumer messaging features
garden Internet Pay per use for
access with
Freepayment
e.g. to user:instruction
3rd party pays,
to Free to user: 3rduser pulled
party pays,
Monthly subscription bank e.g. payment instruction content
limited e.g. product information,
messaging to bank Free balance
bank to user: 3rd party pays,
e.g. product information,
bank balance
Monthly subscription Bundled number of messages per Same as for mass market
Techy / Monthly subscription month Bundled number of consumersSame as for mass
Small messages per market
Business Unlimited messaging
month without file consumers
attachment
Unlimited messaging
without file
Negotiated annual subscription Negotiated annual subscription Negotiated annual subscription
Negotiated Negotiated Negotiated
Corporate annual annual annual
Corporate subscri subscri subscri
2. Introduction to competitors
It is important to note that there is competition situation, to ensure
there is opportunity. In this case can be seen the coverage of its
competitors, the system performance, and also the number of
subscribers to compare the number of potential customers
unserved.
After receiving 1. Starting sketch plan in the area of service, the aim is to produce a
a report from range of services in service areas with the least possible number of
economic cells, perhaps for the allocation of capacity for a given BW, as well
analysts who as good quality as possible.
examined the
2. Determining the number of RF channels needed to serve the
economic feasibility, traffic during rush hour predictions until several years into the future.
the task of an
engineer to create a 3. Studies of interference problems.
reliable network in Cochannel interference, adjacent channel interference, and also the
possibility of intermodulasi of each cell. Furthermore, finding ways
terms of capacity, to overcome this.
quality and costs as
efficiently as possible 4. Studies on the blocking probability in each cell, and seek
measures to minimize it
Before planning the system, an engineer must have a deep knowledge on the
basics of cellular technology, including cell structure, channel asignment, cell
splitting, cell overlay system, call processing, radio propagation concepts, and
various other principles.
An RF enginner must analyze two kinds of conditions: (1), In the worst conditions,
and (2), On the average achieved by the designed network. In this case, the
average performance will show the size of customer perception of quality which
ultimately leads to customer satisfaction. While the worst condition is to prevent the
worst case that might happen
16 Cellular Network Planning Objectives...
It is quite difficult to achieve the expected performance in mobile
communication environment is very complex. Because it is expected
that an engineer has a wide knowledge to perform the optimization of
the system which will involve various compromise solutions from a
variety of conditions that would trade off faced. Various methods of
optimizing the mobile cellular communication network is provided in
a later section.
Goal • Capacity
• Coverage
• Quality
17 The purpose of the Planning
19
20 Traffic Forecasting
Penetration & total subscribers
Customers, gross adds, churn
Voice, data and other source of revenues
User growth up to maturity of the network.
As initial works to measure the required capacity
Anatomi Demografis 21
Pasar Sasaran (tahun ke-i!)
80%
y = -0.0106x + 0.9686
Potential Adopter
70% R2 = 0.9333
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10% 17 27 37 47 57 67 77
Age of Potentail Adopters
0%
23
y = 0.0852x +
50%
0.0471 R2 =
0.9818
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
<30 30-50 50-70 70-90 90- >110
110
Monthly Net Income
A Far Eastern country, sample 1,500 interviews 1996
24 Penetration Growth
Penetration of Population
The potential demand 60%
demographic patterns
and changes in income. 40%
maximum potential
penetration is the level 10%
0%
1996
upper limit.
25
Number of Subsc. (Million)
0 20 40 60 80 10 12
1995
%
1996
0 0
G
1997 ro
1998
1999 wt
2000
2001
h
2002 of
2003
2004
Sa
S
2005
2006
tu
ra
u
2007 tio
n
b
2008
2009
Le
vel
sc
2010
2011
ri
2012
2013
26 Traffic Growth
240
Saturation Level
200
Offered Traffic (kErl)
160
120
80
40
0%
1995
29
30 What’s New on 3G
Multiservice environment:
– Highly sophisticated radio interface.
Bit rates from 8 kbit/s to 2 Mbit/s, also variable rate.
– Cell coverage and service design for multiple
services:
different bit rate
different QoS requirements.
– Various radio link coding/throughput
adaptation schemes.
– Interference averaging mechanisms:
need for maximum isolation between cells.
– “Best effort” provision of packet data.
– Intralayer handovers
31 What’s New on 3G
Air interface:
– Capacity and coverage coupled.
– Fast power control.
– Planning a soft handover overhead.
– Cell dominance and isolation
– Vulnerability to external interference
32 What’s New on 3G
2G and 3G:
– Co-existence of 2G and 3G sites.
– Handover between 2G and 3G systems.
– Service continuity between 2G and 3G.
3G (WCDMA) Radio Network
33 Planning Process
34 1st. Coverage
coverage regions;
area type information:
– Dense Urban, Urban, sub-urban, or rural
propagation conditions:
– Indoor, outdoor
35 Radio Link Budgets (WCDMA)
MS
BS
37 Example of WCDMA RLB for Voice
Link budget of AMR 12.2 kbps voice service (120 km/h, in-car users,
Vehicular A type channel, with soft handover)
38 Example of WCDMA RLB for Data
Link budget of 144 kbps real-time data service (3 km/h, indoor user
covered by outdoor BS, Vehicular A type channel, with soft handover)
39 Cell range calculation
40 RLB: Okumura-Hatta Model
Load Factor:
49 Downlink Load Factor
50 Noise Rise Capacity
The load equation predicts
the amount of noise rise
over thermal noise due to
interference.
The noise rise is equal to -
10log10(1 – UL).
The interference margin
on row i in the link budget
must be equal to the
maximum planned noise
rise.
51 Example (DL) Load Factor Calculation
Capacities per km2 with macro and micro layers in an urban area
Iteration of Capacity and Coverage
59 Calculations
60 Case Study: Planning in Espoo, Finland
68