- ipitecee,, TONY The Professional Geographer ISSN: 0033-0128 (Print) 1467-9272 (Online) journal homepage: https//wwy.tandfonline com/llirtps20 Laws, Contingencies, Irreversible Divergence, and Physical Geography* Jonathan D. Phillips To cite this article: Jonathan D. Phil and Physical Geography", The Profe: ,0033-0124.2004.05601006.x (2004) Laws, Contingencies, Ireversible Divergence, ional Geographer, 56:1, 37-43, DOI: 10.1114/ To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1111/).0033-0124.2004.05601006.x BR) rvvisnes onine:29 Fe 2008, (CF submit your article to this journal CA [atl Article views: 374 Ba View reates ances Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at hesps://wnwtandfonline.com/action/journallnformation?journalCode=rtpg20Laws, Contingencies, Irreversible Divergence, Jonathan D. Phillips University of Kentucky au critical challenges for phy cl geography are examined re: deterioration of commen cores onde associated with increasing ineleetal niche specalia feaming wo eatch up with measurement ad analysis echo ‘making in analysis of earth surface sats. The future calls for physical geography wo embrace and nthe nee foe conceptual thinking and problem 1 the need to exh incomporte hua sono te ceive eon een nati a ner sc and ruil ei Itcgrte how approaches, Key Words contingency, reverse divergence, laws, pia, rysical geography will eontinue to grow and thrive in the next century, but in the next decade or sa we face some critical challenges. Notwithstanding comments on divergence and Frygmentaion-—a factor in the evolution of phy sical geography that can hardly be ignored — the focus will he on the future of physical goog: raphy as science and scholarship, rather than fon physical geography as a discipline or sub- tiseipline. The extent to which the exceution of physical geography will be cad geography, for associated with the institutions of goog raphy, snot my concern here. This s not to say that such questions are not important, itis an acknowledgement that your guess 38 good Irreversible’ TThe inereasing fragmentation and specaliza sion in goography—and every other field—is sometimes attributed tothe poor fitherween the historically contingent, artfctual definitions ‘of the traditional academie disciplines and the world we perceive and study. This is not the primary driver of fragmentation, however Weare becoming ever more specialized because wwe have no choice As knowledge expands, the ability of any individual to cope with it stays constant, oblig- ing (aucceeding generations of) individuals specify increasingly nartow intelleetal niches. Specialization and fragmentation is inevtable and unavoidable. As intellectual niche specali- zation occurs, specialists become increasing Iy removed from traditional disciplinary cores Thisismot entirely—and nat necessarily—a had thing. New, specialist groups may be indepen dent of unhealthy or stifling cultures, polities, authorities, and orthodoxies of the taditional Aiseplines. There i also the potential for feu fa incerchanges and synergies, drawing from diferent scientific cultures as well as diferent knowledge bases, skills, and abilities. ‘On the negative side, fragmentation may lead toscattered individals and groups of specalists who operate with no central frame of refer for core base of knowledge or epistemology: This lack of a common core may inbibie com ‘munication within and between the specialist ‘groups, and may alsoe inefficient as wheels are reinvented, The emergence of new cores ind ppendenco the traditional disiplines i posible, but is inhibited by the absence of central inst tutions and authorities to define, negotiate, oF enforce a common body of knowledge. There Tore, as these cares emerge, the eommon body of knowledge is likely to be ad hoc and main- tained by informal networks. The primary implication of divergence for the science of physical geography, given the in- cvitabilty of increasing specialization, is the likelihood that earth and environmental sic tists will increasingly operate without a central body of knowledge or core epistemology. This will serve asa negative feback or brake on the nl One OND UK38. Volume 56, Number 1, February 2004 progres that specialization, coupled with stead |yimproving communications technology, might otherwise falitate. Alas, I have no recommet ‘lations, other than tha issues ofa shared core fof knowledge should be considered as both traditional disciplines and specialist groups plan thei futures, Human geography, communica sion studies, and the history of seience may provide seta insight or models inthis rego Theory, Technology, and the New Classics Remarkable technical advances are underway, revolutionizing many threads of inquiry, reinei- gorating moribund areas of study, and opening "plineso investigation the previous generation could searcely have imagined. A review would require a lengthy book, but these advances in- clude new measurement methods and tech- riques for example in remote sensing, dating, and mass flux tracing), new analytical te ques (for instance, local forms of spatial analy sis and object-orienced GIS), and new ways t Arammatically increase the amount and avalabil- ity of traditional types of data (such as digital clevation models and paleoecological data). The new techniques and technologies both allow tastodo things we could never do hefore, sch as ddate previously undatable materials and sur- faces, and enable us to perform traditional tasks with previously unheard-of scope and speed, such as LIDAR-based topographic mapping. “These advancescome from within physical goog aphy and its subdiseiplines, from evolving inter faces (genctiev/biogeography or geochemistry/ geomorphology, for instance), oF from simply ‘making use of general technological improve ‘ments in fields uch as computation and micro- scopy. Ie may now be the ease that our ability to measure is no longer the major fator limi ing the advancement of physical geography: “This is not to say that there is not plenty of oom leit for technology-based advancement, For physical geography in the aggregate, how= cover, our ability to measure and model has ‘emporacily outstsipped our knowledge of exact Iy what we should be measuring or modeling and our supply of good ideas and important problems. With new dating techniques, for Instance, weare nowableto testsomehypotheses regarding long-term landscape evolution, such 2s whether landforms are (or ean be) in steady state equilibrium, and mitochondrial DNA analysis allows biogeographers to examine evo: lucionary biogeography in new ways. In another example, new ice-core data, enabled by im- proved ice-drilling technologies, allows the eva Tuation of hypotheses regarding climate changes. ‘We are well along in the application of new methods and data to classe problems. As pre viously unanswerable questions gradnally get answered, the future growth of the feld will depend largely on our ability to define interest- ing and important new problems. As we address the vintage problems of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, our challenge isto fame set of new or future “classic” problems. The situation may be analogous w that of hydrology tsenty yeas ago, when David Pilgrim (1983, 71) claimed that "[O}ur analytical ability has {ar outstripped our knowledge of hydrological processes.” Since then, hylrological knowledge hhas been greatly inereased, atleast partly dae to technological advances such as isotope tr cers but Jeffrey MeDonnell 2003) reports that these techniques ate being applied to decades: ‘old conceptial models that need updating oF replacement, Perhaps the development of phys eal geography and its subisciplnes is des: tined to be staggered, as theory or technology moves ahead and then waits for the other 10 catch up. At the tsk of caricature, confronting his challenge implies «revitalization of eurosiy driven, individual-oriented “small science,” as ‘opposed to funding- and technology-driven, research-group-oriented. “big science.” ‘The ‘most important and fundamental ideas, theo- ries, and hypotheses in physical geography ase from real-world observations, be they the classic constructions of Cowles, Gilbert, Davis, for Dokuchacr or more recent insights such as evidence of abrupt climate or vegetation changes in paleoenvironmental data, The effort, to advance theoretical physical geography in the neae future willbe less about algorithmic oF laboratory skill and more about generating ideas about soils, ceosystems, climates, and so on. For most physical geographers, these ‘ideas come from the field—whether via formal fieldwork, rambling around the countryside oF streetscape, or observations through an air. plane windost. Thus, a key limitation on our ‘near-future development may be the extent toLarws, Contingencies, Irreversible Divergence, and Physical Geography 39) which we engage the Earth on its own terms, 28 opposed to via stripped-down representa tions of the Earth in simulation models oF laboratories. Human Impacts No progapber necdh wo be conned about the ovrwhilning impact of bomeapenron the tlobal environment, and-mose sill buy int, some level, the ae of synthesizing human and natural” seience and scholarship. Physi Cal geography wl continue to make important contribadons to ucrtanding human iapecs nthe cvroninent The combination of st al science and social science i relatively com= ion when one or the other i treated athe termacoar level Integration, where both phys ical and human geography are deat with ata high love! of sophistication, i rae (Johnston 1986; general either hurnan agency o i physical proces are treated as INDUC oF Saoundary conditions to he other, which the flenscf teorngy snap an protiction, Increasingly, tat will not be good enough That i human impacts in some systems ar so peresie that we cannot understand ard p dice these biophysical pystens without account ing for ecemetnesod and valtral ndary toutions sad kecioge jose an we dob fecount for climate, tectonics, an se le Mach has been ecomplsied ith tre tra divonal approaches based mainly on compar ingand emersting more-oles-anatcred with timnerakared rua ut we ars rpyroec ing the limits of what we can do. In many Sitaion, explanation requires incorporsting tem deciton king en nto tn oe ceptual ameworts and preicive model For tnwance, Karl Nowdsron (987) showed that the response of New Jersey tal ink tose level rive or coastal siorms eannot be predict ti tase stiely on erat geomorphology Rasher, human responses mich st dren, beach “nourishment, shoreline “hardening? and other actions must be considered. along with geomomphie proces (Nordstrom 1987 Trane tht my sigemente bare are indepen dencof any notions ofthe unity of physica and mn geopuphy al of elise comoerna with buts corfonments oF aetialaoc Science iteration My claim s that even one ‘sony interested in hillslope, ceonatems, oF xapotanpinon widhno profesional concern ‘idhhuman acide or beuior oman agency thos stil be engaged, because there often to way to understand hlllopes ccnp, ot Cspotaneiraton for exrpic—wiot i alr ecology and. geoarchaology po side s numberof examples of tule inwhich toch physical and umn geogrspy data and principles ae brought to bear, ith compare Kcels of attention and sophistication, There are not inany exemplars in suds of modern ttchnologia occ or lnscapes or where tnvironmental an resource efets on humans fre lee central than in earl ecology. One Cscepion ie Mtn Roberges 202) sly of Chanel changes in the Sat River, which pats the scone of planners and eogces on tal analytical footing wth the dynamics of flow andsediment Mux Others inclu the work FRB. Gaye, RAL Mui, sd D.C Dey 2002 on anthropogenic re regimes al ore ecology in the Misouri Ozarks and, Sullivan Su E Rods Q008 integration of ogg fephie, ecological, laa, and pola eon theory in problems ofland dradation in sonia Altca These examples noth Standing, we area long way from-—for example sl projec in which steam power and political power are oth brought to beat on Suds of channel change Laws and Contingencies Science is characterized by creative tension Iheeween search for fundamental laws and generalities that are independent of place and time and the recognition—particularly in the earth and environmental. seicnces—that geography and history mater. The law-based, ‘omothetie approach (often, but not necessi- rly, reductionist) secks explanation based on the application of laws and relationships that are valid everywhere and always. Particulates ff place and time are not ignored, but they tare treated. as boundaty conditions and are not a causal oF necessary part of explanation. Aktemative approaches, which may he termed idiographi, historical, or interpretive, seek explanation based on the particular details of ‘ste situation, and history. General laws are scknovedged and utilized, but as constraints and contest to the specific events, objects, or Situations that are the bass of explanation,40. Volume 56, Number 1, February 2004 ‘The nomotheticapproach has generally been dominant, and arguablyso in the earthandenvi- ronmental sciences, even a5 numerous geog- raphers, geologists, ecologists, archacologsts, soil scientists, and others have quitly and effect” ively practiced historical, interpretive science The iographic approach has often been viewed asa necessary precursor to more advanced romothetie schemes, 3s temporary fallback ‘option when we are not yet up to recognizing for applying general laws, or as being carried fot inthe service of law-hased science to pro- vide necessary inputs and boundary conditions tothe later, Recently; however, approaches to science based on or recognizing historical and spatial contingencies and path dependence have been reconceptualized a legitimate and necessary ‘methodologies on an eqnal footing with nomo- thetic methods, In general terms, this new view holds that + Some scientific fields particularly those “with important historic components and those which deal with nature on its own terms, rather than a laboratory or model setting—have innate irreducible levels of ‘contingency that cannot be redueed or insisted by simply collecting moredata ‘or hy refining law-hasedl mode's ‘Historical and interpretive approaches, ‘while different from the lsborate ‘experimental ideal of omothetie science, may be equally sophisticated and valid ‘ways of gaining knowledge, independent- Iy of any relationships with nomothetic The operations and manifestations of ‘earth ssstems are often characterized by ‘contingent factors that may have sig- nificant—even predominant—influences ‘on system states and outcomes, That i ‘contingencies are not necessarily noise ‘superimposed om pattems determined by _general laws, oF Complications that can ‘eventually be deseribed by general laws ‘They may be factors which are iredu- ably place- and/or time-dependent, and ‘hich may be as important as or even tore important than general laws in de- termining hov the world works, ‘© Geography and earth science often deal with singular, nonrepeatable outcomes (the state of a landscape or system at a given time and place). Thus, the ideals Of repeatability and experimentation of the laboratory sciences are often not applicable “These arguments have boen particularly com= ‘mon and forceful in geomorphology and geol- ‘ogy (eg, Frodeman 1995; Baker 1996; Lane and Richards 1997; Spedding 1997; Bishop 1998; Harrison 199), in ecology and biogeography Poster 2000, Peterson 2002; Phillips 2002), and in paleontology and evolutionary biology (Gould 2002), but have also been voiced in pedology (Kristiansen 2001; Phillips 20013), and in physical geography” (Phillips. 2001; Sauchyn 2001), The search for underlying laws and genera ities will continue to be a fundamental goal However ithas become clearthatin many cases, full explanation and wnderstanding based on general laws alone is impossible or unfeast ble. Thus, the challenge is to fully integrate rnomothetic and iiographic approaches—to move from methods that place either historical and geographical pariclars or general laws in a clearly secondary postion to those that give equal or comparable weight to laws and tontingencies. Tn no science is this more important than in physical geography. Asin geology, archaeology, ni evolutionary biology, history i critical in physical geography: And as in other aspects of ‘geography, place is critical as well While there fre certainly problems that can he solved based fon a stricdly nomoxhetic approach, in physical, ‘geography contingencies arealways present and often relevant. ‘While the challenge of integrating laws and particularities is more acute for physical geog- raphy than perhaps any other discipline, there fare several Feasons that physical geography is ina good ponition to take a leadership or exem- plary role inthis synthesis. Physical geography has heen here betore, largely via its associa tion with regional and human geography. The Adebates over idiographic/regionalinterpretative geography versus nomothetic quantitative Scientific geography have come and (most) gone; contemporary critiques emphasizing con- textualty and contingency are with ws now. Also, the human aspects of geography (in human geog- raphy per se and in the inclusion of humanLares, Contingencies, Irreversible Divergence, and Physical Geography 41 agency in much of physical geography) provide 4 prototype for dealing with uniqueness and irreducible unpredictability. While we know that no two people are alike and that individual behavior is unpredictable, we also know that there is some degree of predictabiliy—and some generalizations to be made and applied — stan aggregate level or in a probabilise sens, Perhaps similar reasoning can be applied t other enities:no two ecosystems, streams, mid latinade cyclones, andsoon arcexactlythe same, an individuals have idionyneraces, but predic "ability may'be pursued at an aggregate or pro- babilistic level Similarly, synoptic climatology is a use prototype. Synoptic analysis is informed and fonstrained by laws of atmospherie physics and chemistry, but it implicitly recognizes the idiosyneratie nature of air masses, pressure systems, and weather maps. Developing typo- logies based on geographical (regional) and ‘emporal Geasonal) contexts, makes predictions possible. Again, the synoptic approach might prove applicable to other problems, suchas arid Zone hyilrology and runoff production (Kr ighton and Nanson 2001; Slattery, Gares, and Phillips forthcoming) TThe integration of law-based and contingent methods depends to a large extent on spatial analysis, as accounting forthe effects of local factors involves describing and explaining spa tial variability. Quantitative geography has wit nessed a shift from an emphasis from attempss to derive global laws to an explicit recognition ‘of contingencies (Fotheringham and Branson 1995), Rather than search for singular under lying governing laws, quantitative geographers are now more ikely to be attempting to explain Spatial variability, often incorporating spatial Statistics that explicitly account for location al particularities (Fotheringham and Brunsdon 199), This paradigm has long held sway in certain areas of physical geography, such as landscape ecology and pedometscs, where planing thenature of spatial variability has been ‘more prominent thanattemptsto uncover gene ral lavis and where spatial patterns are typically ‘eweil as emerging from complex interactions, Father than being imposed by single dominant control (Kupfer 1995; Webster 2000) Finally, Reginald Golledge 2002) has done an exemplary job of teasing ont just those part cular skills, abilities, analytical tool, and re g for which geography is well suited and with which geographers tend to be dispropor- tionately blessed. Some of these—for exam pl, place-based reasoning —are inherently well, Suited co the synthesis of nomothetics and idiographics. ‘Summary and Alternative Visions The future of physical geography, like that ‘of most other fields, will be characterized by inmeversible divergence and intellectual niche specialization. Thisislikely to lead wo factions tion and decomposition of common bodies of Inowledge ad core epistemologies, This dete tioration of common frames of reference isthe biggest challenge that fragmentation and spe- aliation pose tothe practice—as opposed to stitutons—of physical geography. “Technological innovation has revolution’ zed physical goography, and the availability of ‘measurement techniques sno longer the major Timitation to advances in the science of physical geography. As new technology is increasing iy brought to hear on classic and chronie pro- Dlems, future progress will be determined by ‘our ability to conceive new, interesting, and important problems. We may also be approaching the ‘what ean he accomplished via tracitonal metho= Allogical approaches to the study of human altered environments, Further progress will depend on research that is able to incorporate both biophysical and human (social, cultural, «conomie) processesat high—andcomparable— levels of theoretical and analytical sophistication Finally, che future calls for science in general, and earth and environmental seience in par ticular, to embrace and confront the creative tension between nomothetic and interpretive science and to fruitfully and explicitly integrate these approaches. More than any other (sub) discipline, physical geography is both erucally affected by this synthesis and well positioned to ‘ontribute wit Based on the challenges outlined above, we can articulate altemative visions for physical geography. At wort, physical geography will ‘ontimie to forge ahead more lowly than might otherwise be the case, as the decline of com- non frames of reference inhibits communica tion and leads to inefficiencies as old ground is replowed, Cutting-edge research will be42 Volume 56, Number 1, February 2004 technology-driven, providing ever-greater in sight into traditional questions and problems, Understanding of human impacts on the envi- ronment will progress incrementally 2s human and physical geography proceed separately, ‘with only clumsy and cursory efforts wo engage theories and methods from both sides. Histor ‘eal and spatial contingency will remain largely tanineegrated wih lae-based approaches. At best, physical geography will rice ahead, We will find ways to maintain and build com- mon cores of knowledge even as inevitable fragmentation occurs. Research will be proble- ‘matized primarily from observations and theory Herived directly from ecosystems, landscapes, climates, and so on, with evolving technologies Aleveloped, adapted, or brought to bearon those problems, We will proceed with understanding ff and engagement with realities such as, for example, the fact that ecorystem restoration goals have as much or more to do with cultural ‘Values as with environmental factors, or that wwater-resource economics is likely to inf the flow of some streams more than precipita ‘ion, And we will find new ways to integrate omothetie science with historical, interpretive research in ways that preserve the information and insight of both approaches. "This hestcase scenario is based entirely on the practice of physical geography a6 science and scholarship, rather than on the institution, al and disciplinary polities of geography and geosciences. Political struggles will no doubt ‘eeu, and physical geographers areno doubs ill tulvised to ignore them. ‘The trajectory of our field, however, depends primarily and over ‘whelmingly on the extent to which we produce relevant, high-quality work that akesadvantage lof the perspectives and skills of geographers. “The future is bright. How bright? That is up cous Notes "The guest etrs beseech me tn prone sme thing more in the way of suggestions on how wo deal tvth these nue and her sgestons were reason able. resist simply because cold come up with hothing orignal or insight wo say on this subjeee. Literature Cited Baker, Victor R. 1996, Hypotheses and geomorpho- logical seasoning. In Toe Se Natare of Gem smorpbaloy eB Ls Rhoads and C.K. Thorn, 5 Si: New Yor: John Wiley and Sons Bishop, Pal, 998. Gnith Tylor and the south ‘ist Australia highland: Isis of datasources ana ‘esi intepetatins of long-term deainage history and landscape evolution. Ausraion Geog riper 207-29, Foster, DasidK,2000. From bois to bars jst ing geographical history into ccolgical studs, “erwionment merprctatin, al enmration pla ing. Journal of Biogengrsply 2727-30, Fotherngham, A. Stewart, and Brunsdon, Chis, 1999, Local forms of spatial analysis: Googrophia Analysis 1340-88, Frodaman,, Richard. 1995, Geological reasoning: Geology a8 an interpretive and historical scones. (Gala Scr af Amerie Bata 1076068 ledge, Reginald G. 2002. The natere of goog raphe owls. Anal of ee Aamir of ine ‘Pha Gengrapbers 921-14, Gould, Stephen J. 2002. The srucure of ecaltonary tery. Cambri, MA Harvard University Prese. ite, RP, RM. Musil, and D.C. Dey. 2002, ymamis ofan anthropogenic ire regime. Eas tem 5172-86. ‘Harrison, Stephen. 1999, ‘The problem with lan ‘scape. Gnarly 84:355-63, Jolton, Rona J. 1986 Four ixstions andthe quest forunityin geography. Tramacionsof the lst of Brith Geographers NS. 1449-53, Kightoa, A: David, and Gerald, Nanson 2001. An ‘eent-sed approach tothe hydrology of ard one rivers inthe Channel Country of Australi, nrnal of Hyd 25410 Kisiansea, Soren M. 2001. Prseatday sil dis. tebution explained by prehistoric land use: Psa renewal variation in an ancient wadland in Denmark. Gonderme 105275-89 Kupfer, Jon A 1995, Landscape cology and io ography. Pres i Pha Geagrpby 1918-38. Lane, Start Nand Keith chan. 1997. Linking river channel form and proces: Time, space a ‘hus revisited. Earth Sofie Pres nd Land Firms 2259-60, [McDonnell J.J. 2003, Where does water go when ie rane Moving hoond the arable sore aes concept of rxnfalsnnof? response. hdres! Prone 17 (0) 1869-75, "Nordstrom, Kal E1987, Predicting shorline chan et tidal inlets ona developed coast. The Pr Shona Georapbr 39:357-65. Peterson, Garey D. 2002. Contagious disturbance, ‘ecological memory andtheemergenc oflandscape Pater. Hates 5329-38 Philips, Jonathan D. 20012. Contingency and gers ‘ration in pedology, as exemple by temo ‘contrast sil Gendron 10234770Lares, Contingencies, irreversible Divergence, and Physical Geography 43 2001, Human impacts onthe envionment and the pritaey of place. Pee Gograply 22 fe 2002, Global and lea factors sytcns, Ealgicl Malin 149257 Pilgrim, David H. 1983, Some problems in wansfer- ‘ang hyological reationaie berween sll and Tange drainage basin and betwccn eons, ral of Hyg 0599-72 oberg, Marin. 2002, Haman modifaion of the ‘geomorphically ustaMe Sle River in metropolitan Phocnis: The Prfrional Geographer $4:175-89. Suu, David J. 2001. Modeling the hydeocina- tie disturbance of ail landscapes inthe southern ‘Canadian pis: The problems of sale and place Exsromental Moning nd Accxmené G7-277-91 Slatery, Michael C. aul A. Gas, and Jonathan D. lips. Forhcomting. Mlle tnores of stort ‘runoff generation ina North Carolina coastal pain ‘waters, Jara f Hyde car surface Spedding, Nick, 197, On growth and form in goo- momphlogy. arah Sure Press and Landers aisle Saulivan Sand R. Rohde. 2002. On non-equilibeium in aid ad semiarid gesing sysera,Jerea of Bogert 29:1595-618, Webwr, Radolph. 2000 Is sol aration rundown? Geers 7199-63 JONATHAN PHILLIPS is profesor in dhe De- parunentof Geographyatthe Unversity of Kentucky, Tesngton, KY 40506-0027. E-mail pply.eda is core research interests rein vial, coastal and seil geomorphology, pedology, and hydrology, He ispantculaly concer wite te they of eeth r= face sets; the coeolution of landscapes sis, and cconstems the role of fava saiment storage ‘nl maneportin indscapeevltion and appliestons ‘of spatial eeu inthe pemcences