TERM PAPER COVER SHEET

Department of International Relations

University of Dhaka

(11th Batch) BSS-Honours 4th Year 7th Semester 2020

Course No & Title: IR 401 Theories of International Relations
Course Teacher: Professor Md. Abdul Mannan

Title of the Term Paper: Balance of Threat Theory and U.S. Perception of “Iran Nuclear Threat”

Student Group: I
Group Members Signature of the Marks
student Obtained
Serial Class Roll Full Name of the Student
No*
19 BB-91 Md. Saidul Sarker

21 BB-100 Arafat Bin Mustafa

40 MM-16 Md. Sifat

50 ZH-90 Shahidul Islam

52 ZH-106 Md. Maruf Rahman Shaon

64 RK-83 Swarga Touhid

*Serial No must be provided in ascending order. For your Serial No, see the serial order that is provided on the
roll sheet.

Date of Submission: 10 September 2020

Warning! Penalties for plagiarism & collusion: Plagiarism is an academic misconduct,

defined as presentation by a student of an essay which actually incorporates ideas fully or
partly from the work of another student, or from any other sources – like books, journal
articles, and periodicals – without proper acknowledgement. Collusion is another form of
cheating by which a student let another student copy his/her work in whole or in part and the
latter submits it as his/her own, or a student presents an assignment which has been submitted
for credit in any other course unit. Students, who will be found guilty of an act of plagiarism or
collusion, will be penalised. It will inevitably result in zero marks for a term paper/assignment,
and no permission will be granted to submit an alternative work.

Signature of the Course Teacher and Date: ……………………………………..

 Table of Content

Topic Page

Introduction 1

Theoretical Framework 1

Comparison between “Balance of Power” and “Balance of Threat” 2

Balance of Threat: Iran-U.S. perspective 4

1. Aggregate Power 4

2. Geographical Proximity 5

3. Offensive Capability 6

4. Aggressive intension 6

Conclusion 7

References 7
Balance of Threat Theory and U.S.
Perception of “Iran Nuclear Threat”
Introduction

Undoubtedly, USA is the most powerful country in the world. USA is far better than any other
countries in military and economic sectors. On the other hand, Iran is very small country, their
economy is damaged by the economic sanctions of USA and their military or industrial sector
are not so much advanced. So, USA should not feel any type of fear from Iran. But the reality is
different from this assumption. USA feels great threat from Iran and there are some reasons
behind this fear. We can see that there is a friendly relation among Iran, China and Russia. China
and Russia took Iran as their ally because USA expressed same type of adversarial relations for
all of them. If the relation between Iran and USA and situation of Iran is analyzed from the light
of Balance of Threat theory then it will be cleared why USA feels threat from Iran. Balance of
Threat theory comes from the Balance of Power theory as the later was not able to analyze the
adversarial relations between Iran and USA. In this paper, we shall try to find out the causes and
reasons of the fact why USA thinks Iran is a big threat for their interests in the world politics.

Theoretical Framework

We use Balance of Threat theory to analyse the adversarial relations between Iran and USA.
Balance of threat theory comes from the reconstitution of Balance of power theory. Balance of
power theory has lacking as it only focuses on the relative power gap between states and a state
should fear only a same power possessing state.1 But in reality, sometimes, big power does fear
small power and the small power could be its neighbour as a neighbour has proximate advantage
to attack. Even a small power could make a coalition with other small power and become
powerful to defeat the big power.2 Here balance of thereat theory is important to prove that small
country is too able to threaten the big power.

1
Y, Forouzan, and Abdolreza Alishahi. “Study of Iran-Saudi Relations in the Persian Gulf Region within the
Framework of the Threat Balance.” Middle East Study, 2018. https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-0761.1000320.
2
ibid
1
A big power could feel insecurity from other small power whose immediate threat could hamper
the big power interest and in the case of Iran-USA conflict we could see this scenario. The
balance of threat theory has four (4) parameters such as aggregate power, geographical
proximity, aggressive capabilities and aggressive intension.3 The aggregate power includes
economic, military and all the other power and it also indicates relative power gap. In the case of
Iran-USA, USA has the advantage as Iran lacks economic and industrial power. But what USA
fears most is Iran's secret nuclear research. Iran has oil reserve and could play oil politics to
make alliances against USA. Iran is also raising its military power and becoming an important
player in Middle East to give a tough competition to USA in the region. The geographical
proximity gives advantage to Iran as USA is situated in a very long distance from Iran and threat
decline with distance. But Iran could threat USA by attacking it allies like Israel, Saudi Arab and
others, in Middle East easily with their (Iran) short range ballistic missiles where USA has its
military bases too.4 The aggressive capabilities mean the military, military equipment and the
political ability. Iran could use its ballistic missile to attack USA allies where USA has its
military base. The aggressive intension cannot be measured with power and size of a state but
from the intension to attack.5 The USA hatred among the Iranians is high and they want „death to
USA‟. Iran‟s government is also frustrated upon USA for imposing sanctions and their (USA)
withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which could make Iran to
attack on USA's Middle East allies and military bases.

Comparison between “Balance of Power” and “Balance of Threat”

The proposition that states will join alliances in order to avoid domination by stronger powers
lies at the heart of traditional balance of power theory.6 According to this hypothesis, states join
alliances to protect themselves from states or coalitions whose superior resources could pose a
threat. By maintaining this balance of power in which no single country is drastically more
powerful than all the others, everyone assures mutual security. It was accepted for a long time
until Stephen Walt argued that structural balance of power theory ignores the other factors when

3
Walt, Stephen M. "Alliance formation and the balance of world power." International security 9, no. 4 (1985): 3-
43.
4
JONGWE, EDSON TINASHE. "AN ANALYSIS OF THE USA GEO-POLITICAL INTEREST IN THE
MIDDLE EAST. THE CASE OF THE 2015 USA-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL." PhD diss., UNIVERSITY OF
ZIMBABWE, 2016.
5
ibid
6
Edward V. Gulick, Europe's Classical Balance of Power (New York: W.W. Norton, 1955), Part I
2
making alliance choices. He argued that states' ideas of security were defined by perceived
threat, not a need to maintain a balance of power, and the balance of threat theory was born.

"Balance of threat" theory should be viewed as a refinement of balance of power theory. Where
balance of power theory predicts that states ally in response to imbalances of power, balance of
threat theory predicts that states seek allies when there is an imbalance of threat, that is, when
one state or coalition is especially dangerous. The two theories are equally parsimonious, but
balance of threat theory is more general and abstract.

Balance of power theory

Causes

Imbalances of power Alliances against the most

powerful state

Balance of threat theory

Causes

Imbalances of threat Alliances against the most

threatening state

FIGURE 1: Balance of power versus Balance of threat theory7

Figure 1 shows the main concept informing balance of power theory is the distribution of relative
power, which is based on population, economic capacity, military power, political cohesion etc.
The central concept of balance of threat theory is the distribution of threats, which consists of
capabilities, proximity, offensive power, and intentions. Thus, both theories are based on a single
general concept incorporating a number of components, although balance of threat theory
subsumes balance-of-power theory by incorporating capabilities, geography, and intention.

7
Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.
3
In the context of Iran-United States relation, Waltz‟s balance of power theory cannot explain
why the United States perceives Iran as a threat despite the fact that U.S. is a global super power
while Iran as a small and weak state compared to the U.S. The balance of power theory considers
„relative power gap‟ between states as the only source of threat. It cannot explain why the U.S.
considers states like Iran, North Korea etc. as threat although the U.S. is located far from these
states. Balance of threat theory modifies balance of power theory and tries to explain why U.S.
being so powerful, perceives states like Iran, North Korea as threats. It answers the questions by
taking into account several other factors (such as proximity, offensive power, aggressive
intension) that are source of threat along with relative power gap among states. In short, Walt‟s
balance of threat theory subsumes Waltz‟s balance of power theory.

Balance of Threat: Iran-U.S. perspective

United States is a world‟s super power. Relatively Iran is a weaker state. Still U.S. feels threats
from Iran. According to balance of power theory we cannot explain why US feels threats from
Iran where Iran has not enough power. Under balance of threat theory we have some criteria to
explain this situation. Iran is trying to show U.S. that Iran has enough capability to damage U.S.
greatly. U.S. is not sure about the capability of Iran but afraid of Iran‟s offensive intention. Iran
is trying to counter U.S. by threatening rather than power balancing. Stephen M. Walt, in his
“Balance of Threat” theory, mentioned four factors of threat which will affect the level of threat
that states may pose. They are: 1) aggregate power; 2) geographical proximity; 3) offensive
capability; and 4) aggressive intentions. The four factors of threat in balance of threat theory are
discussed below in U.S. perception of Iran‟s nuclear threat.

1. Aggregate Power:
Aggregate power of a state refers to the total resources of a state. Greater resources of a state
create greater potential threat to others. Aggregate power of a state consists of total population,
industry, military capability, technology etc. In term of aggregate power United States (U.S.) is
the most powerful state in the world. Compared to U.S., Iran has little aggregate power still U.S.
feels threat from Iran. Because Iran has not enough power to defeat U.S. but Iran can greatly
harm or damage U.S. Iran have a great number of brave and skillful populations that make Iran
confident in any situation. Iran does not have enough industrial development but Iran gets a huge
number of revenue from oil exporting which helps Iran to develop advanced weapon. Iran is also
4
trying to develop its technology. U.S. is a developed country and has most advanced technology
and weapon. In term of aggregate power Iran cannot defeat U.S. but Iran can damage U.S in a
great scale that will take a huge time and money to recover. In that situation U.S. may lose its
world‟s most dominating power. Iran is trying to show its power to U.S. so that U.S. cannot
dominate Iran.

2. Geographical Proximity
According to the Balance of Threat Theory, geographical proximity is a source of threat for
any states. Geographical proximity means two neighbouring countries are close enough to
each other that they could attack each other easily. To project power distance is an
important factor as showing or projecting power decline with much distance. The much
closer a powerful state situated, the much threat can be posed by that state as the threatening
could attack easily. 8 So a distanced country could not pose that much threat. But in the case
of Iran and USA, Iran is putting a huge threat to USA without being a neighbour and
reaching it because USA has alliances in the Middle East, around Iran. In this region USA
has interest, maintaining their hegemony and protects Israel, and Iran could hampe r the
interest by attacking U.S. allies. USA fearing Iran because it has such intension and
capabilities and U.S. believe Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons which will shift
the balance of power in the region. Iran already has some Inter-Continental Ballistic
Missiles which can destroy US allies and US base in the allied country. USA has left the
JCPOA and put huge economic sanctions on Iran which raise the tensions of a potential
arms race between these two countries. 9 Iran growing its military power, developing new
WMD, bolsters its regional alliance system by undermining USA influence in the region is
the indications of proximate power.

8
Walt, Stephen M. "Alliance formation and the balance of world power." International security 9, no. 4 (1985): 3-
43.
9
Tigere, Oswell. "A Case study on the USA and Iranian nuclear “problem”." PhD diss., BUSE, 2016.
5
 3. Offensive Capability

Iran possesses the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, ballistic and cruise
missiles able to strike Israel over 2,000 kilometers away. While Tehran has been accused of
attacking Western-allied oil tankers, it has never launched a missile into either Israel. Tehran has
demonstrated an ability to bolster its military clout through proxies across the region, mostly
Shiite militias that are hostile to the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. 10 Despite being hampered by
international sanctions, Iran remains committed to modernizing its military. It has signaled its
intention to continue its uranium enrichment program and has made rapid progress in developing
capabilities with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) —a warhead-carrying Raad 85 UAV
sometimes referred to as a "suicide drone" can be directed at a target by a human operator. 11

4. Aggressive intension

In the study of "Balance of threat theory", the aggressive intention is one of the factors that will
affect the level of threat that states may pose. It means to provoke other states to balance against
them. One state may be so big and powerful, but friendly towards its surrounding countries, so
none of its enemy would get alliances against them because it does not create threat among them.
But, on another hand, a state may be small in size, but hostile in nature, all of its neighboring
countries should always be ready for any kind of unpleasant incidents because it is a matter of
threat for their existence. It is an obvious that small countries with such big power must create a
massacre in the way of their success or anytime they want they can make the best use of their
power. No state has any idea about the military conditions or the power of another state. In U.S.-
Iran conflict, we can deem that Iran is a country with such hostile or aggressive nature and U.S.
has no clear idea about Iran's nuclear power. Iran has proclaimed about their nuclear capability
like, it had enriched uranium, announced numerous other accelerations of its nuclear program
that specifically exceed the provisions of the Iran nuclear deal and shorten the time it would take
to build a nuclear weapon. But the government of the United States is uncertain about it. If Iran
has much nuclear capability, they might attack U.S. and may cause unacceptable damage. So,

10
Walden, Max, Michael Walsh, and Alan Weedon. “How Capable Is Iran's Military and What Threat Would It
Pose in a War?” Web log, January 6, 2020. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/iran-military-capability-united-
states-conflict-explainer/11842138.
11
Lamrani, Omar. “Iran's Conventional Military Capabilities.” Center for Global Policy, July 9, 2020.
https://cgpolicy.org/articles/irans-conventional-military-capabilities/.
6
this is a threat for the existence U.S. So they try to make alliances with the neighboring countries
of Iran, such as- Saudi Arabia and Israel for balancing the threat and bringing it up for any kind
of unsavory situations.

Conclusion

USA has huge interest in Middle East. Saudi Arabia and Israel are their trusted allies. As a super
power USA tries to dominate all states. Only China and Russia have the powers which can be
compared to the powers of the USA. USA's fear to the China's economic expansion and
development or to their military advancements of Russia can be analyzed by the balance of
power theory. USA has great fear to the power of Iran, although Iran has not so much economic
or military power by which they can defeat USA. But Iran already advanced their military
capability by which they can greatly damage to the interest of USA which will be a threat to the
opposition as a superpower. If Iran can achieve nuclear power then it will be a great threat to the
USA's interest. To stop their any type of advancement to the nuclear sector, USA imposed
economic sanctions on Iran. People and government of Iran really want the „Death‟ of the USA
and for this they are ready to any type of sacrifices. So, behavior of both to each other can be
explained only by the Balance of Threat theory, not by the Balance of Power theory. Balance of
Threat theory is more relevant to analyze the adversarial relations between any countries.

References

Y, Forouzan, and Abdolreza Alishahi. “Study of Iran-Saudi Relations in the Persian Gulf Region within
the Framework of the Threat Balance.” Middle East Study, 2018. https://doi.org/10.4172/2332-
0761.1000320.

Walt, Stephen M. "Alliance formation and the balance of world power." International security 9, no. 4
(1985): 3-43.

JONGWE, EDSON TINASHE. "AN ANALYSIS OF THE USA GEO-POLITICAL INTEREST IN THE
MIDDLE EAST. THE CASE OF THE 2015 USA-IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL." PhD diss.,
UNIVERSITY OF ZIMBABWE, 2016.

Edward V. Gulick, Europe's Classical Balance of Power (New York: W.W. Norton, 1955), Part I
7
Walt, Stephen M. The Origins of Alliances. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1987.

Tigere, Oswell. "A Case study on the USA and Iranian nuclear “problem”." PhD diss., BUSE, 2016.

Walden, Max, Michael Walsh, and Alan Weedon. “How Capable Is Iran's Military and What Threat
Would It Pose in a War?” Web log, January 6, 2020. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-06/iran-
military-capability-united-states-conflict-explainer/11842138.

Lamrani, Omar. “Iran's Conventional Military Capabilities.” Center for Global Policy, July 9, 2020.
https://cgpolicy.org/articles/irans-conventional-military-capabilities/.