Professional Documents
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Market value
A definition of value is an attempt to clarify the assumptions made in
estimating the exchange price of a property if it were to be sold in the open
market. These assumptions can include the nature of the legal interest, the
physical condition of the building, the nature and timing of the market, and
assumptions about possible purchasers in that market. Given that a compelling
reason for using market value definitions is to ensure consistency in the
process of valuation, it is important that there is a consistency of definition in
all countries. For this reason, the International Valuation Standards Committee
(IVSC) has set a ``standard'' to provide a common definition of market value.
Market value is a representation of value in exchange, or the amount a property
would bring if offered for sale in the open market at the date of valuation under
circumstances that meet the requirements of the market value definition. In
order to estimate market value, a valuer must first estimate the highest and
best use, or most probable use. That use may be a continuation of a property's
existing use or some alternative. These determinations are made from market
evidence.
Market value is estimated through the application of valuation methods and
procedures that reflect the nature of property and the circumstances under
which the given property would most likely trade in the open market. Market
value is defined for the purpose of the standards as follows:
Market value is the estimated amount for which an asset should exchange on the date of
valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm's length transaction after
proper marketing wherein the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without
compulsion.
This paper reviews the various methods available to the valuer to estimate
market value.
Methods
Each country will have a different culture and experience, which will determine
the methods adopted for any particular valuation. The majority of all methods
will rely upon some form of comparison to assess market value. This may be
done, in its simplest form, by direct capital comparison or may rely upon a
JPIF range of observations that allow the valuer to determine a regression model.
21,4 Any such method is referred to in this paper as ``traditional''.
Other models or methods try to analyse the market by directly mimicking
the thought processes of the players in the market in an attempt to estimate the
point of exchange. These models tend to be more quantitive in method and will
be referred to as ``advanced''.
386 For each method (or approach) that is described below, its theory is briefly
explained together with an outline of how it is applied in the valuation process.
The appropriate economic principles are also quoted with an explanation of
how they apply to each method.
Methods can be grouped as follows:
(1) Traditional valuation nethods:
. comparable method;
. investment/income method;
. profit method;
. development/residual method;
. contractor's method/cost method;
. multiple regression method; and
. stepwise regression method.
(2) Advanced valuation methods:
. artificial neural networks (ANNs);
. hedonic pricing method;
. spatial analysis methods;
. fuzzy logic; and
. autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA).
where:
= Minkowski exponent lambda
Ai = weight associated with the ith continuous characteristic
Xi = value of the ith characteristic in the sale property
Psi = value of ith characteristic in subject property
X
i = summation of terms of i characteristics
Aj = weight associated with the jth categorical characteristic
Xj = value of jth characteristic in sale property
Psj = value of jth characteristic in subject property
X
j = summation of terms of j characteristics
a; b= inverse delta function (0, if a b; 1, if a 6 b).
For each comparable property the sales price is adjusted to the subject property
as follows:
Adjusted sales price sales price
comparable MRA subject MRA:
Given the several comparable sales, several adjusted selling prices are
obtained. A weighted estimate is formed as follows:
Xn
Wi
Weighted estimate ASPi ;
4
i1
W
where:
ASPi = adjusted sale price for comparable i
388 SPi = sale price of comparable I
Di = distance for comparable I
D = max of Di .
Thus the weighted estimate of value places more emphasis on properties,
which are most like (smaller distances) the subject property and have the
smaller adjustments to the selling price. The comparables with the lowest
distance are selected. In calculating the distance the variables are allocated a
factor weight (McCluskey and Borst, 1997). The weighting is used to balance
the effect of variables according to the magnitude of the variable itself, so that a
variable with larger numerical size has a smaller weight. This process of
computing several comparable sales estimates of value, a weighted estimate of
value and an MRA (multi regression analysis) estimate of value yields, in the
case of five comparable sales, seven estimates of value.
Development/residual method
The properties under estimation are plots or sites that can be developed. The
best method for estimating site value is through comparable vacant land sales.
The sales should be reduced to appropriate units of comparison. The value of
the land or site should be estimated as if the site were vacant and available for
JPIF its highest and best use. Each comparable sale should be described. As a
21,4 minimum, the description must include the following data:
. location;
. grantor;
. grantee;
390 . recording data;
. date;
. sale price;
. financing;
. units of comparison;
. lot dimensions;
. configuration and size;
. physical and topographical characteristics;
. zoning, utilities; and
. environmental influences.
This analysis of understanding the market value of the land and property to
the business can be extended to include the valuation of development property.
If one views the process of (re)development as a business, it is possible to
assess the market value of land and buildings in their existing form as part of
that process. Development occurs where the current use of land and buildings
is not the highest and best. By spending money redeveloping the site, it is
possible to release latent value, as the market value of the land is increased due
to the demand for the new use commanding a higher price than the previous
use. By viewing development in this way, it can be seen that the residual
method of valuation is very similar to the profits method.
With the residual method, the valuer assesses the market value of the land
in a redeveloped form (either by comparison or by the investment method)
and deducts from this gross development value all costs that will be incurred
in putting the property into the form that will command that price. These
costs will include demolition of the existing building (if not already a cleared
site), infrastructure works, construction costs, professional fees, finance costs
and a remuneration for undertaking the risk of development (developer's
profit). By deducting these liabilities from the final market value, a residue is
produced. This residue represents the maximum capital expenditure for
buying the land. It will therefore include all costs of purchase (taxation, legal
fees, professional fees and finance). The net residual land value is determined
by allowing for these additional land costs. It can be seen therefore that the
residual land value is, as with any economic rent, dependent upon the supply
and demand of the finished product, the developed property. The greater the
demand for the finished property, the higher the gross development value,
and if costs remain relatively static, the higher the market value of the land in Practice briefing:
its original state. Real estate
appraisal
Contractor's/cost method
A further way in which it is possible to estimate the market value of land and
property is the contractor's method or the replacement cost method. If the
property being valued is so specialised that properties of that nature are rarely 391
sold on the open market, it will be effectively impossible to assess its value by
reference to comparable sales of similar properties. Similarly, if there is no
rental produced, the investment method will also be inappropriate. The profits
method could be applied if the property is intrinsically linked to the business
carried out in the property, however, where that business is one of production
(rather than service) it is difficult to determine the contribution of the property
to the overall usage. The plant and machinery contained within are likely to
have a greater value to the business than the structure containing them. Thus,
once again, the valuer must revert to understanding the thought process of the
user of the building. This can be illustrated by reference to a property such as
an oil refinery. Here the nature of the business is so specialised that there are no
comparisons, the property would be owner-occupied so there is no rental and
the plant and the machinery will be the important elements contributing to the
value of the business. Thus, the owner of the building will simply assess the
market value of the building by reference to its replacement cost. How much
would it cost to replace the property, if the business were deprived of its use? In
simple terms, market value will equate to reconstruction costs. The valuer will
assess the market value of the raw land (by reference to comparable land
values in an appropriate alternative use), add to this value the cost of
rebuilding a new building which could perform the function of the existing
structure, and from this then make subjective adjustments to allow for the
obsolescence and depreciation of the existing building relative to the new
hypothetical unit. It is reasonable to assume that this mirrors the thought
process of the owner-occupier and thus should be viewed as a valid and
rational method of valuation.
It is interesting that in countries where property investment is less prevalent
and where owner-occupation is the favoured method of property utilisation,
then it is not only specialised properties which are valued by the contractor's
method. If there is no investment market (i.e. properties will only exchange
between owner-occupiers in the market) then the price of exchange will reflect
the ``bottom line'' cost to the purchaser. This bottom line will be the cost that
will need to be incurred for a new build relative to the existing property that is
on the market. There will be a strong correlation between price and cost.
However, if the occupation market is dominated by companies renting, and
there is a degree of scarcity in the market, then price will be determined not by
cost, but by the supply and demand characteristics of the occupational market.
In such a case, regardless of the nature of the property, the investment method
will dominate as the favoured valuation model.
JPIF Multiple regression method
21,4 The general multiple linear regression models is:
i 0 1 X1; i . . . k Xk; i I ;
1
where Yi , X1;i ; . . . ; Xk;i represent the ith observations of each of the variables
Yi , X1 ; . . . ; Xk respectively, 0 , 1 ; . . . ; k are fixed (but unknown) parameters
392 and i is a random variable that is normally distributed with mean zero and
having a variance 2 .
There are several assumptions made about Xi and i which are important:
. The explanatory variables X1 ; . . . ; Xk take values which are assumed to
be either fixed numbers (measured without error), or they are random
but uncorrelated with the error terms i . In either case, the values of
Xj
j 1; 2; . . . ; k must not be all the same.
. The error terms i are uncorrelated with one another.
. The error terms i all have mean zero and variance 2 , and have a
normal distribution (Makridakis et al., 1998).
There is an example of regression analysis in real estate (Wolverton, 1997). The
data for this example consisted of 56 residential, mountainside view lots
located in Tucson, Arizona, on sale over the 1989-1991 period. The data are
restricted to a relatively small geographic area to control for variation in
household income and other exogenous price influences. All the sale properties
are located within the same public school district, subject to the same
governmental jurisdiction and property tax rates, and are equally distant from
major employment nodes.
The characteristic variables of the model are:
. quality of city view (VIEW) was measured by metrically scaling the
width of each lot's angle of city view panorama, adjusted for blockage or
potential blockage from nearby homes;
. lot size (SIZE) was taken from recorded plots;
. a dummy variable (DEV) was coded as one for seven of the lots in the
data set involved steep terrain and consequently high-expected
expenditures for site fill and building foundations, and zero otherwise;
and
. variables that describe 21 sales which occurred in 1988, 11 in 1989, 19 in
1990, and five in 1991.
The example of the functional form of diminishing marginal price deals with
the price per square foot and the second subsection deals with the price per
degree of included angle of view. As a first step in the analysis of diminishing
marginal price per square foot, lot price per square foot (PSF) was regressed on
lot developability (DEV), lot size (SIZE) measured in thousands of square feet,
city view (VIEW), and year of sale (YR 1989, YR 1990 and YR 1991) with 1988
as the base year (referred to herein as the ``naõÈve'' model). This first regression Practice briefing:
model demonstrates that these variables account for most of the variability in Real estate
lot price per square foot (adj. R2 0:77), and that DEV, VIEW and SIZE are all appraisal
significant determinants of price in this sub-market, with p values of 0.001 or
better.
The estimation model is depicted by:
PSF 0 i
DEV 2
VIEW 3
YR1989
393
where Xi is the input values and Wij is the weights assigned to the input values 395
for each of the j hidden layer nodes. A transformation function then relates the
summation value(s) of the hidden layer(s) to the output variable value(s) or Yj :
This transformation function can be of many different forms: linear functions,
linear threshold functions, step linear functions, sigmoid functions or Gaussian
functions. Most software products utilize a regular sigmoid transformation
function such as:
1
YT :
8
1e y
This function is preferred due to its non-linearity, continuity, monotonicity, and
continual differentiability properties (Borst, 1992; Trippi and Turban, 1993).
There is research about three artificial neural networks for estimating the
value of a random sample of ``normal'' residential properties and a sample of
outlier properties. The data used in this research consist of 288 single-family
residential properties that were sold in Fort Collins, Colorado, USA from
November 1993 to January 1994.
The variables that determine value were the number of bathrooms, the age
of the house, the lot size, the finished interior square footage of the house,
whether there was a basement, the number of fireplaces, and the size of the
garage. The log of the property sales price was used as the output layer for the
artificial neural network model.
Outlier properties were determined as properties that possessed a z-score
greater than 2.0. A z-score was measured by subtracting the property price from
the average price of the houses in the sample and dividing by the sample
standard deviation. A total of 17 outlier properties were identified and separated
into an ``outlier'' holdout sample, leaving 271 properties in the ``normal properties''
data set. The remaining 271 properties were sorted by price and every fourth
property was separated out into a ``normal'' holdout sample, leaving 204
properties to be the training sample for creating the artificial neural networks.
The model with the optimal number of hidden layer nodes would possess the
minimum mean absolute prediction error and the maximum number of houses
within a 5 per cent absolute prediction error of the actual sales price. Six hidden
layer nodes were found to be the optimal number of nodes within the hidden
layer for the three artificial neural networks.
Fuzzy logic
Classic Boolean logic is binary, that is a certain element is true or false, an
object belongs to a set or it does not. Fuzzy logic, introduced by Zadeh in 1965,
permits the notion of nuance. The key to Zadeh's idea is to represent the
similarity a point shares with each group with a function (termed the
membership function) whose values (called memberships) are between
0 < m < 1. Each point will have a membership in every group, memberships
close to unity signify a high degree of similarity between the point and a group,
while membership close to zero implies little similarity between the point and
that group. Additionally, the sum of the memberships for each point must be
unity.
Every continuous math function can be approximated by a fuzzy set.
Several types of membership functions can be utilized. The membership
function reflects the knowledge for the specific object or event.
Another critical step in the fuzzy systems methodological approach is the
definition of the rules, which connect the input with the output. These rules
are based on the form ``if . . . then . . . and''. The knowledge in a problem-
solving area can be represented by a number of rules. For example, if the
output set ``value: is comprised by two subsets called: `low' and `high','' two
rules could be:
(1) If the distance is small then value is low.
(2) If the distance is great then value is high.
In order to solve a problem with a knowledge-based fuzzy system it is
necessary to describe and process the influencing factors in fuzzy terms and
provide the result of this processing in a usable form. The basic elements of a
knowledge-based fuzzy system are:
. fuzzification;
. knowledge base;
. processing; and
. defuzzification.
JPIF The use of fuzzy logic for the analysis and the modelling of real estate could be
21,4 a powerful tool in modern planning, as is pointed out by many researchers
(Bagnoli and Smith, 1998; Gold, 1995; Byrne, 1994). The most important
advantages of fuzzy modelling are:
. It is a more realistic approach through the use of linguistic variables
instead of numbers.
398
. Hierarchical ranking of the objects (e.g. buildings, lots) and not an
inclusion ± exclusion list.
. Fewer repetitions of the model.
where B represents the back shift operator such that BYt Yt1 , Yt is the
value of the time series observation at time t, t is a series of random shocks
which are assumed to be independently, normally distributed with zero mean
and variance and d represents the order of difference. If a series is stationary,
then d 0. In equation (10),
B is a polynomial of order p in the back shift Practice briefing:
operator B, which is defined as: Real estate
X
p appraisal
B 1 i Bi :
10
i1
This is the only valuation method that depends on time variables. The ARIMA
model is essentially an approach to economic forecasting based on time-series
data (Dickey and Fuller, 1981; Granger and Newbold, 1974; Tse, 1996).
Conclusions
In this paper we have reviewed the methods that have been used for
estimating real estate property's value. The existing European (UK) and North
American (US) literature considers that the comparable method is accurate
and reliable estimated method. Many researchers have their reservations
about method's reliability because of the subjectivity of the key variable
choice. In cases where there is lack of data we can use the comparable method.
The surveyor imprints the property market in order to estimate the value of
the property. He or she has to determine the comparative set of properties and
recognizes the key variables. This method allows us to focus on selection,
evaluation and registration of the value elements that is very important in
appraisal.
Other methodologies that are also presented in this paper can resolve the
problem of estimating the value of properties as a possibility in this regard. For
example, the resulting regression coefficients provide estimates of the value of
individual property features. This offers a scientific basis for the price
adjustments and does not rely on the judgment and experience, or inexperience,
of the appraiser or agent. Regression analysis can also handle many more
comparables than the few generally used in comparative market analyses
performed by real estate agents or accredited appraisers.
A dilemma in social science is that one often does not know which the
appropriate model is. The procedure then is to reason through the issues,
consult the literature, consider alternatives, choose a model, perform the
analysis, and study the results. If the results do not give cause to refute the
model, appear reasonable and logical, and in agreement with accepted beliefs,
the model is regarded as appropriate. We proceed according these principles,
paying particular attention to the following two issues (Janssen et al., 2001):
(1) functional form; and
(2) variable selection.
JPIF The objective of the paper is to survey the functional forms (methods) used in
21,4 real estate estimation. In this way, we can use the appropriate method
according our criteria to estimate property value. There is continuing debate
about the interpretation of value concepts by means of definitions of value and
their implementation by means of a valuation methodology. As valuers move
from operating in their home country to the demands of a European and
400 international marketplace, these issues are likely to become more complex.
Conversely, the cross fertilisation of ideas provides an opportunity for
improved theory and practice.
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