Stability Indices How to forecast the likelihood of thunderstorms!!! 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinLifted Index (LI)* Total Totals (TT) K Index (KI, ‘Showalter Index (SI) Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) CAP Strength (700 mb LI) Lapse Rate (LR)* Relative Humidity (RH)* Lifted Condensation Level (LCL)* Level of Free Convection (LEC) Equilibrium Level (EL)* Wet Bulb Zero (WBZ) Melting Level (MLT) Warm Cloud Depth (WCD)* Precipitable Water (PW)* Equivalent Potential Temperature (8,)* Moisture Flux “Convergence” (MEC)* SOME OF STABILITY INDEX Convective Available Potential Ener: Convective Inhibition (CIN)* Bulk Richardson Number (BRN)* DCI = Deep Convective Index Bulk Richardson Number Shear (BRNSHR) h TQ Index = for “low-topped Taide for nsta ony Indices of Indices (“Inbreeding”) Energy-Helicity Index (EHI)* Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP)* ‘Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) Significant Tornado Parameter (STP)* Significant Hail Parameter (SHIP) Significant Severe Parameter (SSP_ Strong Tornado Parameter (STP! CAPE) HI= Haines index Bulk Vertical Wind Shear* Total Vertical Wind Shear* Storm-Relative Wind* Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH)* Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) Normalized CAPE (nCAPE)* Wind Index (WINDEX) Dry Microburst Index (DMI) Theta-€ Index (TEL Microburst Day Potential Index (MDPI) Wet Microburst Severity Index (WMS1) Mesoscale Convective System Forecast Index (MCS Index! => a recent index published in WAF (2007) ie This tististotrrearty-extraustivet—Stability Indices Basic Idea: Single number that characterizes the stability (or instability) of the atmosphere Advantages: + Easily computed + Easily applied in forecasting Disadvantages: + Details of atmospheric profile may be ignored Application Guidelines: + Forecaster must always closely examine the entire sounding + Must be used in conjunction with other forecasting methods 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Showalter Index (SI): Temperature difference between: * The environmental air at 500 mb and + The temperature of an air parcel at 500 mb lifted dry-adiabatically from 850 mb to saturation (i.e., the LCL) and then pseudo-adiabatically thereafter up to 500 mb. SI where: Te 500 Environmental temperature at 500 mb in K Tpsoo Parcel temperature at 500 mb in K 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Showalter Index (SI): Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from 850 mb 2. Find the LFC for the same parcel 3. From the LCL move up a pseudo-adiabat to 500 mb 4, Subtract the parcel temperature (T,) at 500 mb from the environmental temperature (Te) at 500 mb 500 mb SI = Tesoo — Tps00 SI = (241 K) - (248 K) si=-7 SI = (-32°C) - (-25°C) |- Let Tenpea | | 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Showalter Index (SI): SI Forecast Guidelines: +1 to +3 Showers are probable, Thunderstorms possible need strong forced ascent 0 to -3 Unstable — Thunderstorms probable -4 to -6 Very Unstable — Heavy thunderstorms probable less than -6 Extremely Unstable — Strong thunderstorms probable Tornadoes are possible Usage Guidelines: + Good for forecasting mid-level convection + Does not account for moisture in boundary layer 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Lifted Index (LI): Definition: Temperature difference between: + The environmental air at 500 mb and + The temperature of an air parcel at 500 mb lifted dry-adiabatically from the mean conditions in the boundary layer to saturation (ie., the LCL) and then pseudo-adiabatically thereafter up to 500 mb LI where: Te 500 Environmental temperature at 500 mb in K Tpsoo Parcel temperature at 500 mb in K + Mean boundary layer conditions are determined by finding the average Wsy and 6 in the lowest 100 mb of the sounding 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinLifted Index (LI): Skew-T Procedure: Stability Indices 1. Identify the lowest 100 mb of the sounding 2. Find the mean W.y and mean 6 in the lowest 100 mb 3. Follow the mean Wey and mean 6 up to the LCL 4. From the LCL move up a pseudo-adiabat to 500 mb 5. Subtract the parcel temperature (Tp) at 500 mb from the environmental temperature (Te) at 500 mb LI = Teso0 — Tpsoo LU (-32°C) - (-26°C) 500 mb 880 mb 980 mb Tenpea 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Lifted Index (LI): Finding the mean Wew and @: 1. Identify the lowest 100 mb 2. Identify the maximum and minimum 6 within the 100 mb 3. Mean 6 is located 50 mb above the surface halfway between Onax aNd Onin 4. Identify the maximum and minimum ws,, within the 100 mb 5. Mean Wsy is 50 mb above the surface halfway between Wey-max ANd Wew-min Note: The mean 8 and mean Wey may NOT fall along the sounding Wsw-min Wsw-max min max 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Lifted Index (LI): LI Forecast Guidelines: Oto -2 Thunderstorms possible, need strong forced ascent -2 to -5 Unstable —- Thunderstorms probable less than -5 Very Unstable — Strong thunderstorms probable Usage Guidelines: + Good for forecasting surface-based convection + Accounts for moisture in boundary layer + Addresses limitations of Showalter Index 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinK Index (K): Definition: Stability Indices Measure of thunderstorm potential based on: + Vertical temperature lapse rates (Tgso-Ts00) + Moisture content of the lower atmosphere (Tq 500) + Vertical extent of moist layer (T700-Ta 700) where: Taso Ts00 Tasso Tro0 Ta700 K= (Tyo Tsoo) + Tasso 00. Ty 700) Temperature at 850 mb in °C. Temperature at 500 mb in °C. Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in °C Temperature at 700 mb in °C. Dewpoint temperature at 700 mb in °C 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices K Index (K): K (Ty50 Tso) + Tasso (Tyo Forecast Guidelines: 700) K<15 0% chance of thunderstorms 15-20 < 20% chance of thunderstorms 21-25 20-40% chance of thunderstorms 26 — 30 40-60% chance of thunderstorms 31-35 60-80% chance of thunderstorms 36 - 40 80-90% chance of thunderstorms K>40 > 90% chance of thunderstorms Usage Guidelines: + Does not require a plotted sounding + Biased toward “air mass” thunderstorms (i.e. not near fronts) + Works best for non-severe thunderstorms 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Total Totals (TT): Definition: Used to identify areas of potential thunderstorm development: + Temperature lapse rate between 850 and 500 mb (Taso and Ts00) + Low-level moisture (Ty aso) TT (Ty50 + T, 850) 2T 599 where: Taso Temperature at 850 mb in °C. Ts00 Temperature at 500 mb in °C. Tasso | Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in °C. 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices TT = (Ty50 + Tasso) = 2T 500 Total Totals (TT): Forecast Guidelines: TT <45 No thunderstorm activity 45-50 Weak potential for thunderstorm activity 50-55 Moderate potential for thunderstorm activity TT>55 Strong potential for thunderstorm activity Usage Guidelines: + Does not require a plotted sounding * Good for “air mass” thunderstorms (i.e. not near fronts) + More reliable than K-Index for severe thunderstorm potential 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT): Definition: Measure of severe weather potential based on: + Low-level moisture (Ty 850) + Instability (Total Totals) + Low-level jet stream (Vaso) + Mid-level jet stream (VVso0) + Warm air advection (ddso0 and ddgso) SWEAT =12T,,,, +20(TT ID) + W 59 + Woo +1 25[sin (dd,,. —dd,;,) + 0.2] where: Tasso | Dewpoint temperature at 850 mb in °C. TT Total Totals in °C Wes50 Wind speed at 850 mb in knots W500 Wind speed at 500 mb in knots ddaso Wind direction at 850 mb in degrees ddsoo Wind direction at 500 mb in degrees 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT): SWEAT =12T, 55) + 20(TT — 49) + 2W5p + Wop +1 25[sin (dds, —dd,,,) + 0.2] Rules: No term may be negative! + Set 12Tss50=0 if Taaso is negative + Set 20(TT-49)=0 if TT <49 + Set 125[sin(ddsoo — ddgso) +0.2] = 0 if any of the following are not met: + ddgso is in the range 130° to 250° * ddso0 is in the range 210° to 310° * ddsoo — ddgso > 0 * Ws00 and WVgs0 are both > 15 knots 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Severe Weather Threat Index (SWEAT): SWEAT =12T,,,, +20(TT 9) + 2We5y + Wyn +125fsin (dd,,,, —dd,;,) + 0.2] Forecast Guidelines: SWEAT > 300 Severe Thunderstorms SWEAT > 400 Tornadic Thunderstorms Usage Guidelines: + Does not require a plotted sounding + Only indicates potential for severe weather + Includes vertical wind shear terms required for deep convection + Forced ascent is needed to realize the potential 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Convective Inhibition (CIN): Definition: + The energy that must be overcome to make a parcel buoyant + Energy is overcome by forced ascent * The negative area below the LFC between the environmental sounding and the temperature of a lifted parcel Lre BD & Negative ~— Area 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Convective Inhibition (CIN): Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from the surface 2. Find the LFC for the same parcel 3. Identify those layers below the LFC in which the parcel temperature is less than the environmental temperature 4. The CIN is the total negative area 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Definition: + Buoyant energy available in the atmosphere + Forced ascent is usually required to tap into this energy + The positive area above the LFC between the environmental sounding and the temperature of a lifted parcel Positive =r — Area 00}, 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Skew-T Procedure: 1. Find the LCL for a parcel lifted from the surface 2. Find the LFC and EL for the same parcel 3. Identify those layers below the LFC and EL in which the parcel temperature is greater than the environmental temperature 4. The CAPE is the total positive area Tenpea 8% Thermodynamics M. D. EastinStability Indices Convective Inhibition (CIN): Forecast Guidelines: CIN >-10 J/kg Early development of storms. -10 to -100 J/kg Late development of storms (severe weather possible) CIN < 100 J/kg No storms (“capped”) Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE): Forecast Guidelines: CAPE < 500 J/kg Unlikely development of strong storms 500-2000 J/kg Potential for strong or severe storms CAPE > 2000 J/kg Strong or severe storms likely 8% Thermodynamics M. D. Eastin