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Plastic Waste Inputs From Land Into The Ocean: Referencesandnotes
Plastic Waste Inputs From Land Into The Ocean: Referencesandnotes
RE FE RENCES AND N OT ES 13. J. Meng, Y. Hu, Y. Wang, X. Wang, C. Li, Nature 444, 889–893 29. E. J. Sargis, Evol. Anthropol. 13, 56–66 (2004).
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R
fully contained. Mismanaged waste could even-
eports of plastic pollution in the ocean tons (MT)], based only on discharges from ocean tually enter the ocean via inland waterways,
first appeared in the scientific literature vessels, military operations, and ship casualties wastewater outflows, and transport by wind or
in the early 1970s, yet more than 40 years (1). The discharge of plastic from at-sea vessels tides. Estimates of the mass of plastic waste car-
later, no rigorous estimates exist of the has since been banned (2), but losses still occur. ried by particular waterways range from <<1 kg
amount and origin of plastic debris en- It is widely cited that 80% of marine debris or- per day (Hilo, HI) to 4.2 MT (4200 kg) per day
tering the marine environment. In 1975, the es- iginates from land; however, this figure is not (Danube River) (10, 11). Because of their depen-
timated annual flux of litter of all materials to the well substantiated and does not inform the total dence on local watershed characteristics, these
ocean was 6.4 million tons [5.8 million metric mass of debris entering the marine environment results cannot be easily extrapolated to a global
from land-based sources. scale.
1
Plastics have become increasingly dominant Here we present a framework to calculate the
College of Engineering, University of Georgia, 412 Driftmier
Engineering Center, Athens, GA 30602, USA. 2Bren School of
in the consumer marketplace since their com- amount of mismanaged plastic waste generated
Environmental Science and Management, University of mercial development in the 1930s and 1940s. annually by populations living within 50 km of a
California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA. 3Oceans and Global plastic resin production reached 288 coast worldwide that can potentially enter the
Atmosphere Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and million MT in 2012 (3), a 620% increase since ocean as marine debris. For each of 192 coastal
Industrial Research Organization, Castray Esplanade, Hobart,
Tasmania 7000, Australia. 4DSM Environmental Services,
1975. The largest market sector for plastic res- countries with at least 100 permanent residents
Windsor, VT 05089, USA. 5Department of Chemical and ins is packaging (3); that is, materials designed that border the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian
Biomolecular Engineering, North Carolina State University, for immediate disposal. In 1960, plastics made oceans and the Mediterranean and Black seas,
Raleigh, NC 27695, USA. 6Department of Chemical up less than 1% of municipal solid waste by mass the framework includes: (i) the mass of waste
Engineering and Materials Science, Michigan State University,
East Lansing, MI 48824, USA. 7Sea Education Association,
in the United States (4); by 2000, this proportion generated per capita annually; (ii) the percent-
Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA. increased by an order of magnitude. By 2005, age of waste that is plastic; and (iii) the percent-
*Corresponding author. E-mail: jjambeck@uga.edu plastic made up at least 10% of solid waste by age of plastic waste that is mismanaged and,
therefore, has the potential to enter the ocean waste to marine debris, we estimated the mass (13) to project the increase in mass to 2025, and
as marine debris (12) (data S1). By applying a of plastic waste entering the ocean from each predicted growth in the percentage of waste
range of conversion rates from mismanaged country in 2010, used population growth data that is plastic. Lacking information on future
Table 1. Waste estimates for 2010 for the top 20 countries ranked by mass of mismanaged plastic waste (in units of millions of metric tons per year).
Econ classif., economic classification; HIC, high income; UMI, upper middle income; LMI, lower middle income; LI, low income (World Bank definitions based
on 2010 Gross National Income). Mismanaged waste is the sum of inadequately managed waste plus 2% littering. Total mismanaged plastic waste is
calculated for populations within 50 km of the coast in the 192 countries considered. pop., population; gen., generation; ppd, person per day; MMT, million
metric tons.
global infrastructure development, the projec- Our framework was designed to compute, from stream were capped at 11% (the 192-country av-
tion represents a business-as-usual scenario. the best-available data, an order-of-magnitude erage in 2010), a 26% decrease would be achieved
We estimate that 2.5 billion MT of municipal estimate of the amount of mismanaged plastic by 2025. This strategy would target higher-income
solid waste was generated in 2010 by 6.4 billion waste potentially entering the ocean worldwide. countries and might require smaller global in-
people living in 192 coastal countries (93% of It is also a useful tool to evaluate the factors de- vestments. With a combined strategy, in which
the global population). This estimate is broadly termining the largest sources of mismanaged total waste management is achieved (0% mis-
consistent with an estimated 1.3 billion MT of plastic waste. The amount of mismanaged plastic managed waste) in the 10 top-ranked countries
waste generated by 3 billion people in urban waste generated by the coastal population of a and plastic waste generation is capped as de-
centers globally (5). Approximately 11% (275 mil- single country ranges from 1.1 MT to 8.8 million MT scribed above, a 77% reduction could be real-
lion MT) of the waste generated by the total per year, with the top 20 countries’ mismanaged ized, reducing the annual input of plastic waste
population of these 192 countries is plastic. We plastic waste encompassing 83% of the total in to the ocean to 2.4 to 6.4 million MT by 2025
expect plastic waste to roughly track plastic 2010 (Fig. 1 and Table 1). Total annual waste gen- (table S3).
resin production (270 million MT in 2010) (3), eration is mostly a function of population size, Sources of uncertainty in our estimates re-
with differences resulting from the time lag in with the top waste-producing countries having sult from the relatively few measurements of
disposal of durable goods (lifetime of years to some of the largest coastal populations. How- waste generation, characterization, collection,
decades), for example. Scaling by the population ever, the percentage of mismanaged waste is also and disposal, especially outside of urban centers.
living within 50 km of the coast (those likely to important when assessing the largest contribu- Even where data were available, methodologies
generate most of the waste becoming marine tors of waste that is available to enter the en- were not always consistent, and some activities
debris), we estimate that 99.5 million MT of vironment. Sixteen of the top 20 producers are were not accounted for, such as illegal dumping
plastic waste was generated in coastal regions middle-income countries, where fast economic (even in high-income countries) and ad hoc re-
in 2010. Of this, 31.9 million MT were classified growth is probably occurring but waste man- cycling or other informal waste collection (espe-
(International Maritime Organization, London, 1988); www.imo.org/ 12. Materials and methods are available as supplementary AC KNOWLED GME NTS
Environment/mainframe.asp?topic_id=297. materials on Science Online. We thank M. A. Barlaz and N. Starr for critical discussions and
3. “Plastics – the facts 2013” (PlasticsEurope, Brussels, Belgium, 13. “Probabilistic projections of total population: Median and L. Amaral-Zettler, M. G. Chapman, G. Leonard, and R. Williams
2013); www.plasticseurope.org/Document/plastics-the-facts- confidence intervals,” (United Nations, Department of for helpful reading of the manuscript. We also thank the
2013.aspx?FolID=2. Economic and Social Affairs, New York, 2012); anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This
4. “Municipal solid waste generation, recycling, and disposal http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/Data-Output/ work was conducted within the Marine Debris Working Group at
in the United States: Facts and figures for 2010” [U.S. UN_PPP2010_output-data.htm. the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis,
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC, 14. K. L. Law et al., Science 329, 1185–1188 (2010). University of California, Santa Barbara, with support from the
2011]; www.epa.gov/solidwaste/nonhaz/municipal/pubs/ 15. K. L. Law et al., Environ. Sci. Technol. 48, 4732–4738 Ocean Conservancy. Our data and model can be found at http://
msw_2010_rev_factsheet.pdf (2014). jambeck.engr.uga.edu/landplasticinput and in the supplementary
5. D. Hoornweg, P. Bhada-Tata, “What a waste: A global 16. A. Cózar et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 111, 10239–10244 materials.
review of solid waste management” (The World Bank, (2014).
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org/handle/10986/17388 18. “2013 resin review” (American Chemistry Council, Washington,
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Supplementary Text
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Fig. S1
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Tables S1 to S6
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Data S1
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H
primer-template RNA (16). The triple mutant was
epatitis C virus (HCV) is a positive-sense, polymerase (RdRp), supports a staggering rate of able to incorporate native and nucleotide analog
single-stranded RNA virus of the family viral production, estimated to be 1.3 × 1012 vi- inhibitors with the RNA samples used in structure
Flaviviridae and genus Hepacivirus and rions produced per day in each infected patient determination (fig. S1). The use of nucleotide
is the cause of hepatitis C in humans (1). (4). Because the NS5B polymerase active site is diphosphate substrates rather than nucleotide
Long-term infection with HCV can lead to highly conserved, nucleotide analog inhibitors triphosphates (fig. S2) generates stalled polymerase
end-stage liver disease, including hepatocellular offer advantages over other classes of HCV drugs, complexes in a catalytically relevant conforma-
carcinoma and cirrhosis, making hepatitis C including activity across different viral genotypes tion. Ternary complexes could be obtained only
the leading cause of liver transplantation in the and a high barrier to the development of resist- with Mn2+, which lowers the Michaelis constant
United States (2). Direct-acting antiviral drugs ance (5, 6). The nucleotide prodrug sofosbuvir (Km) of the initiating nucleotide (17) and increases
were approved in 2011, but they exhibited limited was recently approved for combination treatment the activity of NS5B 20-fold relative to Mg2+ (18),
efficacy and had the potential for adverse side of chronic HCV (7, 8). and only with a nucleotide/Mn2+/double-stranded
effects (3). The catalytic core of the viral replica- One substantial obstacle for the rapid discov- RNA ratio of 1.0/0.6/0.2. These approaches de-
tion complex, the NS5B RNA-dependent RNA ery of effective nucleotide-based drugs for HCV signed to stabilize the incoming nucleotide al-
was the lack of molecular detail concerning sub- lowed for soaking experiments targeting several
strate recognition during replication. NS5B con- distinct assemblies.
1
Gilead Sciences, 333 Lakeside Drive, Foster City, CA 94404, tains several noncanonical polymerase elements, Hepatitis C virus NS5B initiates RNA synthesis
USA. 2Beryllium, 7869 NE Day Road West, Bainbridge Island,
WA 98110, USA.
including a C-terminal membrane anchoring tail by a primer-independent mechanism. Two slow
*Corresponding author. E-mail: todd.appleby@gilead.com and a thumb domain b-loop insertion (9–11), that steps in the catalytic pathway have been identified,
(T.C.A); tedwards@be4.com (T.E.E) are implicated in RNA synthesis initiation (12). including the formation of an initial dinucleotide
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